The Bitcoin market is experiencing a gradual trend reversal following weeks of prolonged price correction between October and November. However, recent on-chain data reveals a concerning trend around BTC’s bullish structure.
Bitcoin IFP Indicator Suggests Market Has Reached Turning Point
Popular analytics page Arab Chain has shared a cautionary insight on the Bitcoin market despite the moderate price recovery in recent weeks. After Bitcoin suffered a 36.5% correction from its all-time high at $126,000, the market leader has lately experienced a significant rebound, rising from $80,000 to as high as $94,000 in the past three weeks.
However, data from the Bitcoin Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) suggests the upward price momentum might be short-lived. For perspective, the Bitcoin IFP measures the net movement of Bitcoin between exchanges over a given period. Arab Chain explains the IFP indicator continues to trend downward, after breaking below its 90-day moving average (MA), suggesting a weakening market participation amid fewer “bullish” flows between exchanges.
Furthermore, the IFP also sits in the red zone, which historically coincides with or precedes a correction period or weak structural momentum that could precede a broader downtrend. Combined, these developments imply the Bitcoin market is at a critical junction, as there is a reduction in exchange flows that has historically supported the price rallies in past market phases.
Is The Bullish Run Over?
Amidst the structural weakness highlighted by the IFP indicator, Arab Chain also noted that the price remains relatively high compared to previous levels in similar situations. The analysts explain that this suggests price and inflows are temporarily moving irrespective of each other. Based on historical data, such detachments usually indicate a prolonged price consolidation or a significant period of extended sideways movement until inter-exchange flows can reestablish market dominance.
Therefore, the Bitcoin bullish structure is not collapsing into a bearish state. However, the IFP metric developments suggest there may not be sustained upward movement in the short term due to the structural slowdown in inter-exchange flows. Moreover, price is likely to become sensitive to changes in the market liquidity. Therefore, there is also significant potential for another correction.
At press time, Bitcoin trades at $90,338, reflecting a 1.82% decline in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, daily trading volume is up by 34.64% and valued at $82.68 billion. According to Arab Chain, a continuous price rebound will only occur if the IFP successfully reclaims its 90-day MA, thereby signaling an increase in bullish exchange flows.
According to exchange data, inflows to trading venues topped 9,000 Bitcoin on Nov. 21 as prices slid to $80,600 on Coinbase — the weakest showing in seven months.
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Reports show that about 45% of those deposits came in chunks of 100 BTC or more, and on one day large transfers reached 7,000 BTC.
The average deposit size in November rose to 1.23 BTC, the largest monthly figure in a year. Those numbers point to more than casual rebalancing; they point to coins being moved where they can be sold.
Binance Stablecoins Hit Record
According to market coverage, Binance’s stablecoin holdings climbed to a record $51 billion. At the same time, BTC and Ether inflows to exchanges swelled to roughly $40 billion this week, with Binance and Coinbase leading the move.
Traders often park funds in dollar-pegged tokens when they want to wait on the sidelines. That build-up means cash is available, but it is sitting idle until sellers either step back or buyers turn up again.
Bitcoin exchange inflows are rising as the price drops to ~87K, a seven-month low.
Large deposits (100+ BTC) now make up 45% of all inflows, hitting 7K BTC on Nov 21.
Large holders are increasingly sending BTC to exchanges, reinforcing the current downtrend. pic.twitter.com/UpN4rAL0FH
Some market watchers warn the recent recovery could be only a pause, flagging remaining margin positions and suggested a test of lower levels.
They said a wick into the $70k–$80k zone would be one way to clear out the last pockets of exposure.
10x Research put resistance levels at $92,000 and $101,000 as the key ranges to watch during any rebound.
For context, Bitcoin had clawed back above $90,000 and was trading slightly higher at the time of reporting, but it remains down about 28% from the all-time high north of $126,000 reached in October.
BTCUSD currently trading at $91,681. Chart: TradingView
Short-Term Bounce, Not A Full Recovery
Meanwhile, market moves in stocks and crypto have shown mixed signals. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were pushing gains as investors bet on a US Fed rate cut, and that helped risk assets.
Yet reports from strategists show the usual close link between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq has weakened, with Bitcoin’s decline steeper in recent weeks.
Ether and many altcoins also faced higher exchange inflows, and several tokens returned to bear-market lows as selling pressure widened.
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What This Means Next
Liquidity is present but it is parked in stablecoins, and big holders are still moving assets toward exchanges. A meaningful rally will likely need either heavy buying demand or a clear catalyst that draws those stablecoins back into risk assets.
For now, the market sits in a waiting mode: a short rally could continue, but a deeper dip remains possible as positions get cleared and sellers complete their rotations.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Evernorth has emerged as the latest powerhouse in institutional crypto accumulation, closing in on its ambitious XRP treasury goal. In just a few days, the firm has reached 95% of its accumulation target, marking a major milestone in XRP’s journey toward broader institutional adoption. The rapid growth of Evernorth’s reserves and its strategic partnerships has sparked renewed excitement across the XRP community, signaling what could be a pivotal shift in how institutions engage with the cryptocurrency.
Evernorth Nears $1 Billion In XRP Holdings
A new report from CryptoQuant has revealed that Evernorth’s XRP holdings is now nearing the $1 billion funding milestone, positioning it among the top institutional holders of the cryptocurrency. According to JA Maartunn, a community analyst at CryptoQuant, Evernorth currently holds 388,710,606.03 XRP, reaching 95% of its $1 billion target.
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The company’s total XRP treasury is now valued at approximately $947,183,571, with unrealized profits of roughly $46 million generated in four days. This figure reflects an average purchase price of $2.44 per XRP, which Maartunn believes could become a defining price level for the cryptocurrency’s market trajectory.
Notably, Evernorth’s XRP treasury comes amid a broader trend of institutional diversification toward digital assets. Earlier this year, several major crypto treasury institutions—most notably Strategy, with its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy, and The Ether Machine, with its dedicated focus on Ethereum—set the tone for large-scale crypto accumulation.
Evernorth’s expanding holdings signal a decisive shift beyond BTC and ETH, underscoring a maturing institutional demand for alternative layer-1 assets. It also suggests that XRP may become the next frontier for institutional treasuries seeking exposure to high-liquidity, regulated crypto assets.
Evernorth’s XRP Growth Strategy
Asheesh Birla, the CEO of Evernorth, introduced the treasury company last week, on October 20, through an X post. He described it as an institutional vehicle built to propel XRP’s global adoption. The announcement detailed the company’s plans to go public through a SPAC merger with Armada Acquisition Corp II (NASDAQ:AACI), targeting gross proceeds of more than $1 billion.
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Evernorth’s growth strategy includes acquiring XRP through innovative financial structures designed to maximize XRP per share and expanding internationally into key markets like Japan and South Korea. The company also plans to diversify its yield generation through risk-mitigated treasury deployment. These initiatives reflect a deliberate, structured approach toward building a long-term institutional presence around XRP.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has also praised Birla’s initiative, noting Ripple’s partnership and investment alongside prominent firms such as SBI Holdings, Pantera Capital, Kraken, GSR, and Rippleworks. Garlinghouse said that Evernorth’s participation in institutional lending, liquidity provision, and DeFi yield opportunities will be instrumental in expanding XRP’s utility. Ripple’s CTO, David Schwartz, who joins Evernorth as a strategic advisor, echoed this sentiment, expressing enthusiasm for building scalable opportunities for XRP across DeFi and capital markets.
XRP trading at $2.65 on the 1D chart | Source: XRPUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
Semilore Faleti is a cryptocurrency writer specialized in the field of journalism and content creation. While he started out writing on several subjects, Semilore soon found a knack for cracking down on the complexities and intricacies in the intriguing world of blockchains and cryptocurrency.
Semilore is drawn to the efficiency of digital assets in terms of storing, and transferring value. He is a staunch advocate for the adoption of cryptocurrency as he believes it can improve the digitalization and transparency of the existing financial systems.
In two years of active crypto writing, Semilore has covered multiple aspects of the digital asset space including blockchains, decentralized finance (DeFi), staking, non-fungible tokens (NFT), regulations and network upgrades among others.
In his early years, Semilore honed his skills as a content writer, curating educational articles that catered to a wide audience. His pieces were particularly valuable for individuals new to the crypto space, offering insightful explanations that demystified the world of digital currencies.
Semilore also curated pieces for veteran crypto users ensuring they were up to date with the latest blockchains, decentralized applications and network updates. This foundation in educational writing has continued to inform his work, ensuring that his current work remains accessible, accurate and informative.
Currently at NewsBTC, Semilore is dedicated to reporting the latest news on cryptocurrency price action, on-chain developments and whale activity. He also covers the latest token analysis and price predictions by top market experts thus providing readers with potentially insightful and actionable information.
Through his meticulous research and engaging writing style, Semilore strives to establish himself as a trusted source in the crypto journalism field to inform and educate his audience on the latest trends and developments in the rapidly evolving world of digital assets.
Outside his work, Semilore possesses other passions like all individuals. He is a big music fan with an interest in almost every genre. He can be described as a “music nomad” always ready to listen to new artists and explore new trends.
Semilore Faleti is also a strong advocate for social justice, preaching fairness, inclusivity, and equity. He actively promotes the engagement of issues centred around systemic inequalities and all forms of discrimination.
He also promotes political participation by all persons at all levels. He believes active contribution to governmental systems and policies is the fastest and most effective way to bring about permanent positive change in any society.
In conclusion, Semilore Faleti exemplifies the convergence of expertise, passion, and advocacy in the world of crypto journalism. He is a rare individual whose work in documenting the evolution of cryptocurrency will remain relevant for years to come.
His dedication to demystifying digital assets and advocating for their adoption, combined with his commitment to social justice and political engagement, positions him as a dynamic and influential voice in the industry.
Whether through his meticulous reporting at NewsBTC or his fervent promotion of fairness and equity, Semilore continues to inform, educate, and inspire his audience, striving for a more transparent and inclusive financial future.
Bitcoin’s violent futures deleveraging earlier this month reset market positioning but did not break the broader bull trend, according to Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant. Speaking on the Milk Road podcast on October 20, Moreno argued that the path to fresh highs remains open if spot demand stabilizes and the macro overhang from US–China tariff negotiations clears. The key inflection he’s watching is Bitcoin reclaiming its on-chain traders’ realized price near $115,000. “The resistance will be around $115K,” he said. “If the price goes above that… the range that we could expect is $150–$195K. To the downside… it’s around like $100K.”
Bitcoin Bull Run Is Reset
Moreno characterized the October 10 deleveraging as the largest dollar liquidation in the history of Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetuals, with roughly $20 billion in open interest wiped out in a single day as total OI fell from an all-time high near $78 billion to around $58 billion, later hovering closer to $56 billion. He noted that in unit terms the event was “a little bit short of the FTX liquidations,” but emphasized that the dollar magnitude reflected today’s larger derivatives base, not a structural break.
The relative resilience of spot price—Bitcoin “only got to… $110,000” that day, after a wick to “103,000” two days prior—underscored, in his view, that demand and the cycle’s price floor sit well above prior cycles even amid forced unwinds. “It doesn’t put you in a bearish market,” Moreno said, adding that buyers still absorbed supply quickly enough to avert a trend break.
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CryptoQuant’s composite “bull score” of ten on-chain indicators had already rolled over before the crash, dropping from roughly 80 to 40 by October 6 as momentum cooled and spot demand began to contract. After the liquidation, the score slid toward 20, which Moreno described as “on the bearish side right now.” He stressed that on-chain metrics are not price predictors so much as risk gauges: “It’s going to signal to you the risks… when all these metrics… converge into telling you there’s increasing risks, then it’s when you have to be more careful.”
Several datapoints pointed to a market that was stretched into the shock. Total crypto open interest set a record near $78 billion just before the event, a classic over-leverage tell. Profit-taking surged above $3 billion in early October as spot neared the prior all-time high in the $124K–$126K zone, fitting CryptoQuant’s “profit–pause–push” framework in which aggressive realization precedes cooling.
Moreno also highlighted that spot demand flipped from growth to contraction around October 6—days before tariff headlines and the liquidation—helping explain why the risk backdrop was deteriorating even without the macro spark. “We were starting to see some high profit taking… not only because of the macro events,” he said.
Who’s Selling, Who’s Buying Bitcoin?
The compositional flow of coins during the drawdown supports the view of a rotation rather than a structural buyer strike. Moreno said “OG” whales and early miners—an aggregate cohort he estimates hold roughly 600,000 BTC excluding Satoshi—resumed distribution as prices pushed past $100K, a recurring dynamic in every cycle as supply migrates to new hands. Institutional demand, by contrast, remained steady.
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Because ETF custodial wallets often bucket between 100 and 1,000 BTC per address for security, CryptoQuant tracks that “dolphins” cohort as a proxy. “That cohort… is still buying,” Moreno said, adding that whales increased their accumulation “during this correction,” with year-over-year holdings expanding “above trend.” Liquidity conditions corroborate the bid: stablecoin market caps, led by USDT, continued to expand through the drawdown, a pattern he would not expect “if we are… in a bear market.”
Altcoins were far more fragile around the shock. Transactions sending altcoins to exchanges spiked to year-to-date highs during the liquidation, signaling a scramble for exits across low-liquidity names. Moreno cautioned that this cycle has been notably selective across sectors rather than a blanket “alt season,” and reiterated a theme that has become more obvious in 2025: robust protocol activity and fee generation no longer translate mechanically into token outperformance without explicit economic linkage. “Even if the protocol is doing well doesn’t necessarily mean that the token is going to do well,” he said.
What To Expect From Q4 And 2026
Macro remains the wild card for Q4. Moreno believes rate-cut expectations are largely embedded—“the market already… has priced what the Fed will do”—and that only an unexpectedly large cut would be a fresh positive catalyst. By contrast, the US–China tariff trajectory is front-and-center. “If we get that out of the way then… a really positive Q4 can resume,” he said, noting that tariff headlines were the proximate trigger for October’s deleveraging and were also behind a sharper demand contraction back in March–May. Until clarity returns and spot demand re-accelerates, he expects chop around well-defined levels.
That leaves Bitcoin boxed between a tactical resistance and a psychological floor. Moreno pegs the traders’ on-chain realized price near $115,000 as first resistance and the $100,000 area—where short-term holders sit on roughly a 10% unrealized loss—as the downside line where forced selling typically abates in bull markets.
A decisive reclaim of $115K would, in his model, validate a run toward $150,000–$195,000. “We’re not that far… from the previous all-time high,” he said, adding that new highs in Q4 are plausible if the tariff overhang resolves. As for the cycle peak, he leans against an extended mania deep into 2026 or 2027, citing CryptoQuant’s diminishing-intensity bull readout even as price has risen. “I would not expect… more than Q1 2026,” he said, with the caveat that timing tops remains guesswork. “Probably we all are going to be wrong.”
After a short-lived display of bullish momentum, where price returned as high as about $116,000 after the tariff-induced flash crash, Bitcoin’s price has maintained a sharp downward trend in the third week of October. More shockingly, on-chain data has surfaced that paints a pessimistic yet uncertain picture of the cryptocurrency’s future.
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$100,000 Emerges As Key Support Zone
In a recent X post on Friday, CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno shared insights from his technical analysis of the Bitcoin price action. Moreno highlighted that Bitcoin’s most recent break beneath what was a price consolidation range of $120,000-$108,000 has caused a shift of attention towards $100,000 as the next critical level.
The crypto analyst defended his report with the Bitcoin Trader On-chain Realized Price Bands metric, which measures the lower boundary of the average on-chain acquisition cost for Bitcoin short-term holders. Simply, this metric helps identify the price level that would act as support in cases where the price experiences corrective movement.
Source: @jjcmoreno on X
From the chart shared above, $100.9k is currently the lower boundary of the average trader realized price, one that Moreno expects could serve as a support zone.
Aside from technical analysis and on-chain activity, $100,000 is also a significant psychological price level, as it serves as the hallmark where Bitcoin enters a six-figure valuation. If the Bitcoin price were to fall to levels as low as $100,000, the strong psychological backing by market participants could translate to its price action. As a result, the flagship cryptocurrency could see temporary relief from the bearish pressure that it is currently under.
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What Next For Bitcoin?
As was previously mentioned, $100,000 stands as a significant level for the Bitcoin price, with psychology and technical analysis coming together to reinforce its importance.
Derivable from Moreno’s post is the conjecture that if the $100,000 support were to hold, Bitcoin’s bullish sentiment among market participants could be renewed, thus setting the pace for the flagship cryptocurrency’s recovery towards its current all-time-high price.
On the other hand, the failure of this important price level could carry grave implications, especially for short-term holders. A break in this psychological support could trigger a sharp sentiment shift amongst Bitcoin market participants, causing them to sell their holdings to minimize losses or escape with some profits.
Interestingly, the 365-day Moving Average (MA) sits around the $100,000 psychological support. For context, the 365-day MA is a technical indicator that shows Bitcoin’s average closing price over the past year. By extension of its primary function, the indicator is used to gauge Bitcoin’s direction in the long term.
If Bitcoin should therefore slip beneath its 365-day MA of $100,000, it could be a sign that the digital asset is about to assume a long-term bearish trajectory, a sign which might precede major price corrections. As of this writing, Bitcoin is worth approximately $107,400, showing a 7-day loss of more than 5% of its value.
Bitcoin prices are consolidating around $111,000 following the heavy market losses on October 10, due to a trade war between the US and China. The asset’s price is presently down by 9.45% on its weekly chart and also 12.16% away from its all-time high amidst this corrective phase.
Bitcoin Logs First Negative Apparent Demand Flip Since July
In an X post on October 11, popular market analyst Ali Martinez shares on-chain data that shows that Bitcoin’s apparent demand has recently flipped into negative territory for the first time in three months, suggesting a short-term cooling in investors’ appetite.
For context, the apparent demand measures the net amount of Bitcoin being accumulated by active holders. In simpler terms, it reflects how much of the Bitcoin supply is being reactivated or moved relative to how much is newly created. A positive reading generally indicates growing market demand and accumulation, while a negative value suggests reduced appetite or selling pressure.
Data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows that as of October 8, Bitcoin’s 30-day apparent demand has dropped to -13,707 BTC. This development marks the first negative reading since July, when the metric last turned red before rebounding strongly alongside Bitcoin’s summer rally.
Throughout August and September, Bitcoin’s apparent demand remained firmly positive, even as prices moved between $108,000 and $122,000, suggesting steady accumulation. However, the latest data shows a sharp reversal. The drop into negative territory could mean that long-term holders have started realizing profits or that buying momentum has temporarily slowed as traders assess the macro environment.
Interestingly, the macro environment has also become a growing concern for investors, as the United States and China appear poised for a renewed tariff standoff. Notably, US President Donald Trump has announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports, following China’s proposal to introduce a sweeping export tax on several key goods.
Given the historical reaction of market price to tariff news seen during the early days of Trump’s administration, investor sentiment may remain subdued if this trade showdown persists, with many likely adopting a cautious stance until a clearer policy direction emerges.
Bitcoin Price Overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $111,800, reflecting a 0.47% decline over the past 24 hours. On a monthly basis, the asset is down 3.06%, underscoring the intensity of the current corrective phase in the market.
An alarming pattern of XRP whale activity has been noted, posing several questions about the sustainability of the cryptocurrency’s growth. Among the multiple questions currently being asked, one is more demanding of an immediate response: Is an XRP whale sell-off on its way?
XRP Supply Surges Across Major Exchanges
In an October 3rd post on the social media platform X, market analyst CryptoOnchain highlighted a recent shift in the behavior of XRP’s largest holders, the whales.
The online pundit’s report was based on the Exchange Supply Ratio indicator, which tracks the proportion of XRP tokens on exchanges relative to its total circulating supply.
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This metric can be used to derive insights on potential selling pressure for a crypto asset (XRP, in this case), seeing as higher values would suggest increased availability of tokens on the exchange for sale.
Source: @CryptoOnchain on X
According to CryptoOnchain, there has been a spike in XRP supply across major exchanges, suggesting that whales might be positioning for a significant sell-off. The data shared reflects the increase in selling pressure across these exchanges, including Bithumb, Bitget, Bitfinex, and Binance, putting the XRP price at an increased risk of a sharp correction.
XRP Displays Bearish Divergence As Sellers Dominate Futures Market
In a separate post made on the CryptoQuant platform, CryptoOnchain also revealed a budding negative divergence across the XRP futures market.
The relevant indicator here is the Taker Buy Sell Ratio metric, which monitors the balance between aggressive buy and sell orders in the futures market. This metric is typically used to assess whether buyers or sellers are dominating the market in the short term.
The analyst noted that while the price of XRP has been mostly around $3 after its recent rise, the ‘Taker Ratio’ across exchanges has fallen to its lowest level since November 2024. Interestingly, data from Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, further supports this bearish signal, as patterns similar to those seen on other exchanges have also been surfacing.
CryptoOnchain explained that this situation could either mean that the market participants are booking profits or anticipating a price decline in the near future. However, the spike in XRP supply across major crypto exchanges, alongside the clear dominance of sellers in the perpetual futures market, strongly suggests the imminence of a price correction.
It is therefore advisable to watch the psychological $3 level closely before market decisions are made. As of this writing, XRP is hovering around the $3 mark, reflecting a nearly 2% decline in the past 24 hours.
The price of XRP on the daily timeframe | Source: XRPUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Semilore Faleti is a cryptocurrency writer specialized in the field of journalism and content creation. While he started out writing on several subjects, Semilore soon found a knack for cracking down on the complexities and intricacies in the intriguing world of blockchains and cryptocurrency.
Semilore is drawn to the efficiency of digital assets in terms of storing, and transferring value. He is a staunch advocate for the adoption of cryptocurrency as he believes it can improve the digitalization and transparency of the existing financial systems.
In two years of active crypto writing, Semilore has covered multiple aspects of the digital asset space including blockchains, decentralized finance (DeFi), staking, non-fungible tokens (NFT), regulations and network upgrades among others.
In his early years, Semilore honed his skills as a content writer, curating educational articles that catered to a wide audience. His pieces were particularly valuable for individuals new to the crypto space, offering insightful explanations that demystified the world of digital currencies.
Semilore also curated pieces for veteran crypto users ensuring they were up to date with the latest blockchains, decentralized applications and network updates. This foundation in educational writing has continued to inform his work, ensuring that his current work remains accessible, accurate and informative.
Currently at NewsBTC, Semilore is dedicated to reporting the latest news on cryptocurrency price action, on-chain developments and whale activity. He also covers the latest token analysis and price predictions by top market experts thus providing readers with potentially insightful and actionable information.
Through his meticulous research and engaging writing style, Semilore strives to establish himself as a trusted source in the crypto journalism field to inform and educate his audience on the latest trends and developments in the rapidly evolving world of digital assets.
Outside his work, Semilore possesses other passions like all individuals. He is a big music fan with an interest in almost every genre. He can be described as a “music nomad” always ready to listen to new artists and explore new trends.
Semilore Faleti is also a strong advocate for social justice, preaching fairness, inclusivity, and equity. He actively promotes the engagement of issues centred around systemic inequalities and all forms of discrimination.
He also promotes political participation by all persons at all levels. He believes active contribution to governmental systems and policies is the fastest and most effective way to bring about permanent positive change in any society.
In conclusion, Semilore Faleti exemplifies the convergence of expertise, passion, and advocacy in the world of crypto journalism. He is a rare individual whose work in documenting the evolution of cryptocurrency will remain relevant for years to come.
His dedication to demystifying digital assets and advocating for their adoption, combined with his commitment to social justice and political engagement, positions him as a dynamic and influential voice in the industry.
Whether through his meticulous reporting at NewsBTC or his fervent promotion of fairness and equity, Semilore continues to inform, educate, and inspire his audience, striving for a more transparent and inclusive financial future.
Bitcoin remains under pressure after sliding from its all-time high above $124,000 earlier this month. At the time of writing, the asset trades at $110,219, reflecting a weekly decline of about 2% and a broader drop of more than 10% from its peak.
Despite the correction, analysts continue to examine on-chain data for signs of the market’s next direction. Among the latest insights, CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnchain highlighted the significance of the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Price Bands, a long-observed metric used to assess market cycles.
According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s current positioning above key support bands suggests the uptrend remains intact, but with room for both continued growth and potential volatility.
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MVRV Price Bands Point to Potential Cycle Top
The MVRV Price Bands model has historically been used to identify both bottoms and tops in Bitcoin’s long-term cycles. CryptoOnchain noted that the model’s lower band, often referred to as the “floor price,” reliably marked market lows in 2018 and 2022, while the upper band highlighted cycle peaks such as 2017 and 2021.
Bitcoin realized value price model. | Source: CryptoQuant
Currently, Bitcoin’s trading price is positioned well above the model’s floor price of around $52,300 and its median support level of approximately $91,600. This indicates what the analyst referred to as a “healthy uptrend” with persistent activity from long-term holders.
Importantly, the model’s projected ceiling price suggests that Bitcoin could reach as high as $183,000 by August 2025, assuming historical trends remain consistent.
The analyst emphasized that while the ceiling level offers a potential target, traders should monitor the mid-price band for signs of weakening momentum. A decisive move below this level could indicate a shift in trend, raising the possibility of deeper corrections even within a bullish cycle.
Bitcoin Cost Basis Trends Reflect Market Behavior
A separate analysis by CryptoQuant contributor BorisD provided additional context by examining the cost basis of Bitcoin investors on Binance. Data shows that the average deposit address cost basis on Binance has risen from $44,000 earlier this year to $62,000.
This suggests that investors are actively accumulating at higher price zones, particularly around Bitcoin’s recent peaks. New whale investors, defined as large-scale buyers with significant holdings, currently hold an average cost basis of $108,000, which is emerging as a key support level.
According to BorisD, this level could serve as the foundation for the next leg of upward momentum if demand persists. At the same time, miner-linked wallets showed a slight reduction in their average cost basis from $58,000 to $54,000, hinting at modest selling pressure from mining operations.
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Long-term holders, meanwhile, remain well positioned, with a cost basis near $40,000. This region has historically been considered a strong accumulation zone, providing resilience during broader market corrections. BorisD pointed out that cost basis levels often track closely with price behavior and can act as both support and resistance during volatile swings.
BTC price is moving downwards on the 2-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index has dropped to a value of 20, hinting that a potential bearish transition could have occurred for the asset.
Bitcoin Bull Score Index Is Now In “Extra Bearish” Territory
In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has shared how the analytics firm’s “Bull Score Index” has changed for Bitcoin after its recent price drawdown. The Bull Score Index is an indicator that tells us about the market phase the cryptocurrency is currently going through. It determines this by referring to a bunch of key on-chain metrics.
Below is a chart that shows the trend in the indicator over the past year.
As is visible in the graph, Bitcoin entered into the “bullish cooldown” phase at the start of August. This signal interestingly persisted even when its price set a new all-time high (ATH) later in the month, a potential sign that the breakout was always gonna be short-lived.
In the market downturn that has followed this peak, the Bull Score Index first dipped into the “getting bearish” zone, and now, it has plunged right into “extra bearish” levels. “This is something to take serious,” notes Maartunn.
Here is another chart, this one breaking down the individual signals contributing to the Bull Score Index’s value:
As displayed in the graph, almost all of the indicators are giving a bearish signal at the moment. Perhaps the most popular metric on the list is the “Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score,” which relates to investor profitability. It would appear the current market conditions are bad enough to force it to turn red.
Last time the MVRV Z-Score and Bull Score Index turned bearish was back in February of this year. What followed the signal was an extended phase of negative price action for Bitcoin. Given that the Bull Score Index is once again giving an extra bearish indication for the cryptocurrency, it remains to be seen whether its price will now see another transition.
Replying to Maartunn’s post, analyst Ali Martinez has agreed with the caution and shared another signal that could point to a similar outcome for Bitcoin.
The indicator cited by Martinez is the net position change of the 90-day exponential moving average (EMA) Bitcoin Supply In Profit. From the chart, it’s apparent that the metric has turned negative recently, which is something that also happened before the bearish market phase earlier in the year.
BTC Price
While on-chain metrics may be pointing at a bearish conclusion for Bitcoin, its price has made a recovery to $113,000 for now.
Ethereum’s price has maintained notable strength in recent weeks, giving many investors reason for cautious optimism. The asset briefly traded near $4,700 last week, close to its all-time high of $4,878 recorded in 2021, before correcting to its current level around $4,633.
Despite this pullback, Ethereum is still up nearly 30% over the past month, according to CoinGecko data, putting a majority of holders back into profit.
Alongside these price developments, analysts continue to monitor exchange data for signs of broader market sentiment. One such analysis comes from PelinayPA, a contributor on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake platform, who examined Ethereum’s netflow patterns on exchanges.
This indicator measures whether more ETH is moving onto exchanges (inflows) or off of them (outflows), providing insight into potential selling pressure or long-term accumulation behavior.
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Exchange Netflow Data Points to Reduced Selling Pressure
According to PelinayPA, the current netflow picture suggests that Ethereum investors are largely removing coins from exchanges. Historical data indicate that significant inflows, accompanied by substantial amounts of ETH being transferred to trading platforms, often precede price corrections as investors prepare to sell.
Ethereum exchange netflow. | Source: CryptoQuant
Conversely, notable outflows have historically appeared before bull market surges, reflecting confidence in holding or long-term storage. “In past cycles, strong exchange outflows occurred just before major uptrends in 2017, 2021, and again in 2024,” PelinayPA explained, adding:
What we’re seeing now is consistent negative netflow, meaning ETH is leaving exchanges. This generally reduces immediate selling pressure and supports the case for ongoing bullish momentum.
The analyst noted that while inflows can still trigger short-term pullbacks, the current outflow-dominant environment suggests that Ethereum retains significant upside potential in the medium to long term.
The price action aligning with these signals reflects a market where participants are more inclined toward accumulation than distribution.
Ethereum Institutional Demand and Technical Outlook
Ethereum’s strong performance is also being interpreted through a technical lens. Several traders have pointed out that ETH has broken out against Bitcoin after years of relative underperformance.
A crypto analyst known as CryptoBatman on X highlighted the significance of this trend, arguing that Ethereum’s rally could be entering a new phase of market recognition.
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“ETH has finally broken out against BTC,” he wrote, noting that this development shows Ethereum’s potential to gain further traction in the broader crypto market.
After years of downtrend, $ETH has finally broken out against $BTC
It’s actually crazy to think about the upside potential this market holds, as Ethereum’s recent rally is already insane.
In addition, institutional indicators are beginning to align with this narrative. Investment funds and exchange-traded products tied to Ethereum have seen steady growth in holdings, with large investors maintaining exposure even during periods of volatility.
ETH price is moving downwards on the 2-hour chart. Source: ETH/USDT on TradingView.com
Featured iameg created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin (BTC) has recently shown renewed strength in its market stance, with positive signals emerging from key market indicators.
This emerging positivity in BTC’s market indicators comes on the heels of the asset seeing a gradual recovery in price over the past weeks.
Earlier today, BTC again came closer to the $70,000 mark with a 24 hour high of $69,217. However, the asset has since retraced with a current trading price of $68,644, up 1.6% in the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Flash Buy Signal
According to an analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, the “Hash Ribbons” indicator has flashed a buy signal, historically aligning with strong long-term performance for BTC. This signal follows an earlier occurrence during the summer, indicating strong prospects for Bitcoin’s growth.
The Hash Ribbons indicator tracks shifts in Bitcoin’s hash rate, an important metric that reflects the overall health of the mining ecosystem.
As Darkfost explains, this indicator has consistently proven accurate in predicting Bitcoin price rallies, with only one notable exception during the COVID-19 pandemic, creating a unique market disruption.
By analyzing Hash Ribbons chart, Darkfost noted: “This suggests that another BTC rally could potentially occur over the middle-term.”
Miners’ Position Signals Market Optimism
Adding to the bullish outlook, another analyst, Avocado onchain, has pointed out a notable trend in miners’ behavior, which may also contribute to an optimistic price outlook for BTC. Miners play a critical role in Bitcoin’s cyclical market patterns, often influencing price volatility with their buying and selling actions.
According to Avocado, miners tend to hold onto their Bitcoin rather than sell during periods of price stagnation, which can create favorable conditions for a price surge when demand picks up.
Miners Are Betting on a Bitcoin Price Rise
“Historically, when the MPI rebounded from a low, #Bitcoin’s price tended to experience significant increases.” – By @avocado_onchain
The Miner Position Index (MPI) shows that miners still hold onto their Bitcoin with minimal movement toward exchanges, indicating limited selling pressure from these influential market participants.
Historically, a rebound in the MPI has been associated with Bitcoin price increases, suggesting miners are holding onto assets in anticipation of higher prices.
Additionally, the block rewards per block—a measure of transaction activity on the network—are increasing, signaling greater activity on the Bitcoin blockchain, which often correlates with price appreciation.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
According to the latest insight from a CryptoQuant analyst, Bitcoin might be poised for a notable price correction. This possibility of a price correction is based on major Bitcoin metrics such as the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (ASOPR), signaling a notable implication for Bitcoin’s trajectory.
Understanding ASOPR’s Role In Predicting BTC Corrections
The ASOPR, a key indicator in the crypto market, measures the profit ratio of spent outputs by comparing the value at which coins were bought to the value at which they were sold.
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According to the CryptoQuant analyst, when this ratio exceeds 1, it suggests that coins are being sold at a profit, which often correlates with bullish market conditions.
However, a critical threshold observed in historical data is when ASOPR approaches 1.08. At this point, the market tends to shift, signaling a potential onset of a correction phase.
This pattern has been consistent over several market cycles, providing a valuable tool for investors to assess the market’s health. For instance, when ASOPR climbs steadily above 1 but nears the 1.08 mark, investors might consider this an opportune moment to evaluate their positions before potential downturns.
The CryptoQuant analyst particularly noted:
Considering past instances where similar patterns were observed, there is a possibility that the current situation might follow the same (down) trend.
Another critical component the analyst mentioned in his BTC market analysis is the 200-day moving average (MA), widely regarded as a barometer for the long-term market trend.
This indicator helps smooth out price data by creating a constantly updated average price, which can be pivotal in confirming the overall market direction. A rising 200-day MA suggests a long-term uptrend, while a decline might indicate a bearish market.
According to the chart shared by the analyst, Bitcoin’s performance below this key moving average currently confirms the cautious stance suggested by the ASOPR.
With the price hovering around $64,000, a 14% drop from its recent peak, the convergence of these indicators suggests that the market might still be in a phase of reassessment and potential adjustment.
Bitcoin Continued Stagnancy
The prediction from the metric above is quite evident, as Bitcoin’s value continues to fall despite significant positive developments within the industry.
Earlier today, Standard Chartered Plc announced the launch of a new trading desk for Bitcoin and Ethereum, marking a significant move into spot cryptocurrency trading by one of the world’s major banks.
Additionally, the Winklevoss twins, founders of the crypto company Gemini, have publicly supported Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, donating $1 million each BTC for being a “pro-Bitcoin” candidate.
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Nevertheless, these developments have not spurred any significant upward movement in Bitcoin’s price, which has seen a 1.1% decline in the past 24 hours to $63,935.
BTC price is moving downwards on the 1-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com
Analyst Ansem predicts that Bitcoin may not see a significant price increase until later this year, anticipating it will remain between $58,000 and $60,000 for some time.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
The price of Ethereum has not exactly lived up to its promise as the month has gone on, despite a stellar start to the month. While this bearish pressure has been widespread in the general cryptocurrency market, regulation uncertainty has been an additional concern for ETH, igniting a negative sentiment around the “king of altcoins.”
Interestingly, the latest on-chain revelation shows a substantial amount of Ethereum has made its way to exchanges so far in March, suggesting that investors might be losing confidence in the long-term promise of the cryptocurrency.
Are Investors Losing Confidence In Ethereum?
According to data from CryptoQuant, more than $913 million has been recorded in net ETH transfers to centralized exchanges so far in March. This on-chain information was revealed via a quicktake post on the data analytics platform.
This net fund movement represents the largest volume of Ethereum transferred to centralized exchanges in a single month since June 2022. Even though March is still a week from being over, this exchange inflow appears to be a complete deviation from the pattern observed over the past few months.
Chart showing total monthly netflow of ETH on centralized exchanges | Sources: CryptoQuant
As shown in the chart above, October 2023 was the last time cryptocurrency exchanges witnessed a positive net flow. It is worth noting that there was significant movement of Ethereum tokens out of the centralized platforms in subsequent months up until this month.
Meanwhile, a separate data point that supports the massive exodus of ETH to centralized exchanges has come to light. Popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed on X nearly 420,000 Ethereum tokens (equivalent to $1.47 billion) have been transferred to cryptocurrency exchanges in the past three weeks.
The flow of large amounts of cryptocurrency to centralized exchanges is often considered a bearish sign, as it can be an indication that investors may be willing to sell their assets. Ultimately, this can put downward pressure on the cryptocurrency’s price.
Substantial fund movements to trading platforms could also represent a shift in investor sentiment. It could be a sign that investors are losing faith in a particular asset (ETH, in this case).
Moreover, the recent regulatory headwind surrounding Ethereum specifically accentuates this hypothesis. According to the latest report, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission is considering a probe to classify the ETH token as a security.
ETH Price
As of this writing, the Ethereum token is valued at $3,343, reflecting a 4% price decline over the past /4 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, ETH is down by 11% in the past week.
Ethereum loses the $3,400 level again on the daily timeframe | Source: ETHUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
Despite the landmark launch of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) spearheaded by industry behemoths BlackRock and Fidelity—ranking among the top five ETF launches in their initial month of all time—BTC’s price response has been notably subdued. Prior to the launch of these EFTs, BTC soared to a peak of $49,040 on January 11.
Fast forward to today and BTC is currently settling at $51,000, marking a modest appreciation of 4.3%. This tepid performance has puzzled market observers, particularly in light of massive net inflows of $5.278 billion into all Bitcoin ETFs within a mere six-week span. These could have been even significantly higher if there would have been $7.398 billion in outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC.
The Bombshell Discovery
Yet, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju may now have found the “real” reason that has had an even bigger impact on Bitcoin’s price action in recent weeks. Ju’s analysis highlights the transfer of over 700,000 BTC to Over-The-Counter (OTC) desks predominantly utilized by miners in the weeks succeeding the spot Bitcoin ETF approvals—an equivalent of approximately $35.6 billion at current prices.
He shared the below chart and stated: “700K BTC has moved to OTC desks used by miners over the past three weeks following spot Bitcoin ETF approval.” This revelation has sparked a reevaluation of the impact of such substantial transfers on the market dynamics of Bitcoin.
BTC OTC transactions | Source: X @ki_young_ju
Ju later corrected his statement slightly and explained, “Got some questions about the data accuracy. These OTC addresses are not only used by miners. It could be used by other whales. We’ll let you know what addresses caused this spike,”acknowledging the complexity and multifaceted nature of these transactions.
The Bitcoin OTC Mechanism Explained
OTC desks facilitate direct transactions between two parties, unlike open exchanges where orders are matched among various participants. This method of trading can handle large volumes of Bitcoin without immediately affecting the market price.
When substantial amounts of BTC are bought or sold on public exchanges, the sudden increase in supply or demand can lead to significant price volatility. By opting for OTC transactions, large buyers, such as ETF issuers, can accumulate Bitcoin in vast quantities without triggering a steep price increase that would inevitably follow if these purchases were made on spot markets.
Thus, Ju theorizes that the issuers behind the newly launched Bitcoin ETFs are strategically purchasing Bitcoin via OTC desks. This approach serves a dual purpose: it allows these entities to fulfill the demand from ETF investors by securing enough Bitcoin to back the ETF shares while simultaneously mitigating the immediate price impact that such large-scale purchases would have if conducted on open exchanges.
The essence of Ju’s claim is that if the 700,000 BTC had been bought on the spot market instead of through OTC channels, the influx of demand would have likely propelled Bitcoin’s price significantly higher than the observed 4.3% increase. This subdued price action, therefore, could be attributed to the strategic use of OTC transactions by ETF issuers and other large-scale buyers.
However, there is also a silver lining. What will happen if the miners can only sell half of the current supply following the upcoming BTC halving in April, but the demand remains? Moreover, this constraint isn’t limited to miners alone.
Given that the OTC supply is finite and likely depleting rapidly, it appears inevitable that a supply shock could impact the market once the OTC reserves are fully tapped. When entities like BlackRock and others are compelled to purchase Bitcoin on the open market to back up their ETFs, the BTC price could react swiftly.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
On-chain data has revealed an increasing sentiment of holding Bitcoin among investors. Bitcoin has been on a roll since the start of the month, pushing its price to new yearly highs. At the same time, exchange data from CryptoQuant reveals that the crypto might be gearing up for a sustained bull run. According to the on-chain analytics platform, Bitcoin’s exchange supply, the amount available for purchase on exchanges, has dropped to its lowest levels since 2017
Exchange Supply Drops To Lowest Level In Six Years
The Bitcoin market is flashing a bull signal that correlates with anticipation of spot Bitcoin ETF applications. CryptoQuant’s exchange reserve chart demonstrates that the supply of Bitcoin has been steadily decreasing from centralized exchanges since 2020 when it reached a high of over 3.2 million BTC. The outflow was particularly aggravated in the last quarter of 2022, when the collapse of crypto exchange FTX led to panic and investors started to opt for self-custody in cold wallets. During this period, exchange reserves dropped from 2.512 million BTC to 2.158 million BTC in a month.
Reserve on exchanges started to increase slowly in the early months of 2023, climbing back up to 2.240 million in May. However, things started to change in June, as filings by BlackRock and other investment companies for spot Bitcoin ETF trading in the US led to the start of a bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin slightly below the $44K level today. Chart: TradingView.com
The reserve on centralized exchanges has been on a steady drop since then. At the time of writing, the exchange reserve has now crossed below 2 million BTC, a level it has yet to reach since December 2017. This metric’s six-year low is particularly interesting, considering Bitcoin’s total circulating supply has increased since 2017. Bitcoin’s total supply now stands at 19,564,812 BTC, a 16% increase from December 2017’s supply of 16.78 million BTC.
Outlook For Bitcoin Price: Bull Signal?
Although there are technically more bitcoins now available to go around, the increase in adoption is making it increasingly harder for traders to get a hold of the asset. Dropping exchange supply is a bullish signal for crypto assets and periods of low exchange supply have historically been associated with the beginning of significant Bitcoin bull runs. The last time Bitcoin had a drastic drop in exchange reserve was in 2020, and the crypto would later go on to reach its all-time high the year after.
