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Tag: crypto

  • Ethereum Drops Below $4,000 – Analyst Points To 6 Factors Fueling The Selloff

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    Earlier today, Ethereum (ETH) slid below the psychologically important $4,000 level for the first time since August 8. The fall in ETH’s price can be attributed to a mix of macroeconomic, structural, and crypto-specific factors.

    Ethereum Dips Below $4,000, Analyst Explains Why

    According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, ETH’s latest descent below $4,000 can be blamed on a complex mix of factors. First, a strong US dollar, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious stance following its September rate cut, dampened risk appetite.

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    Furthermore, rising bond yields and the increasing risk of a US government shutdown have spooked investors, discouraging them from investing in risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies like ETH.

    Second, the analyst points to the role of leverage in ETH’s latest dip. On September 22, more than $500 million in ETH longs were wiped out within 24 hours, resulting in the unwinding of high leverage that was building up in Q2 2025. During the sell-off, ETH whales faced close to $45 million in forced sales.

    In addition, low weekend trading volume and shallow order books enhanced ETH’s price swings. Notably, institutional investors turned to OTC redemptions, following the Fed meeting to reduce their exposure to ETH.

    From a technical perspective, ETH failed to decisively break through the stiff resistance near $4,500 – $4,600. Failure to defend the $4,200 support worsened things for ETH, turning the momentum sharply bearish.

    The fifth reason was regulatory headwinds surrounding digital assets, especially the uncertainty around MiCA in the EU and US crypto legislation. ETH exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows worth $76 million weighed on investor sentiment.

    Finally, a surge in validator exit queues and reduced staking inflows weakened natural buy-side support. Other factors, such as seasonal weakness and Bitcoin’s (BTC) rising dominance in the market, contributed to ETH’s sell-off. Arab Chain concluded:

    While this correction reflects structural positioning and macro forces rather than a broken thesis, volatility may persist until liquidity returns and regulatory clarity improves.

    Will ETH Stage A Recovery?

    While the momentum is against ETH currently, some analysts are optimistic about a turnaround in ETH’s fortunes in the coming months. For instance, ETH’s CME futures open interest is inching closer to new highs, setting a new potential target for ETH of $6,800 by the end of 2025.

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    Similarly, the surge in ETH contracts throughout the year has some analysts convinced that the digital asset may soon embark on a rally to $5,000. ETH’s illiquid supply could further propel it to new highs.

    In his latest analysis, crypto commentator Ted Pillows predicted that the increase in global M2 money supply could pave the way for $20,000 ETH. At press time, ETH trades at $3,959, down 3.6% in the past 24 hours.

    Ethereum trades at $3,959 on the daily chart | Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView.com

    Featured image from Unsplash, chart and TradingView.com

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    Ash Tiwari

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  • Fintrac issues largest-ever $20M penalty against KuCoin operator – MoneySense

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    Fintrac says Peken Global failed to register with Fintrac as a foreign money services business, failed to report large virtual currency transactions, and failed to submit suspicious transaction reports. Agency director and CEO Sarah Paquet said in a statement that the rules are in place to protect Canadians and the economy, and that Fintrac works with businesses to help them understand and comply with their obligations. “We are also firm in ensuring that businesses continue to do their part and we will take appropriate actions when they are needed,” she said.

    KuCoin said it strongly disagrees with the agency’s findings and penalty, and maintains that it should not be classified as a foreign money services business. “We disagree with this decision on both substantive and procedural grounds, and we have pursued all available legal avenues to ensure a fair outcome for KuCoin,” said chief executive BC Wong, in a statement. “As always, we remain fully committed to transparent operations and compliance with all applicable laws.”

    KuCoin’s troubles extend beyond Canada, with major U.S. penalties

    The failures include almost 3,000 transactions of over $10,000 the company should have reported between June 1, 2021, and May 8, 2024, in what Fintrac classified as a minor violation.

    The watchdog says the company also failed in 33 cases to report transactions where there were reasonable grounds to suspect they were related to money laundering or terrorist financing, in what it categorized as severe non-compliance or a very serious violation, and said represents a loss of critical information. The suspicious cases included transactions between Peken Global Ltd. and large dark web or illegal digital marketplaces suspected of facilitating harmful cyber activities in Canada and the sale of illegal goods and services, the agency said.

    It’s not the first time the company has run into trouble with authorities. The company pleaded guilty in January to operating an unlicensed money transmitting business in the United States and agreed to pay penalties totalling more than US$297 million, the U.S. Attorney’s Office said. The U.S. settlement also included the company agreeing to leave the U.S. market for at least two years and for two of KuCoin’s founders to no longer have any role in the company’s management or operations. 

    KuCoin was founded in 2017 and says it serves users across more than 200 countries and regions. 

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  • Hyperliquid’s Days Numbered? Expert Forecasts ‘Painful Death’

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    The road ahead for Hyperliquid does not look so bright. In fact, the decentralized trading platform could face lots of tribulations, “painful” ones, according to an expert.

    Related Reading: Bitmine’s Ethereum Appetite Grows With Fresh $70 Million Buy

    Aster, a new DEX built on the BNB Chain, has grabbed market attention this week after a dramatic price surge and heavy on-chain flows.

    Traders and observers say the token’s spike has shifted capital away from established rivals, while heated commentary from a high-profile trader has added to the drama.

    Aster Surpasses Rivals In Volume And Revenue

    According to on-chain trackers, Aster’s 24-hour perpetual trading volume has climbed into the tens of billions, with figures reported around $23–$30 billion — more than double what Hyperliquid recorded over the same window.

    Reports have disclosed that the DEX is now pulling in roughly $10 million in daily revenue, a figure that some outlets say is about four times Hyperliquid’s daily take.

    Trader Claims And A Public Feud

    Crypto trader James Wynn — a figure known for large leveraged bets and big losses earlier this year — has publicly backed Aster and predicted a long, slow decline for Hyperliquid.

    Wynn’s comments, carried across social channels, have been part boast and part critique of Hyperliquid’s visible order model. He argued that Aster’s hidden-order and MEV-mitigation features make it a safer place for large players.

    Based on reports, Wynn said “Hype will exist, but it will have a slow and painful death,” a line that has amplified the rivalry online.

    Whale Accumulation And Big Withdrawals

    On-chain analytics show major wallets moving into ASTER. Two large buyers are reported to have picked up about 118 million ASTER, valued at roughly $270 million, which is said to represent about 7% of circulating supply.

    HYPEUSD trading at $43.29 on the daily timeframe. Chart: TradingView

    In the same stretch, a cluster of wallets withdrew 68 million ASTER (about $156 million), and one address moved 50 million ASTER from an exchange.

    These flows suggest both aggressive accumulation and repositioning by big holders.

    Aster’s Product Pitch Versus Hyperliquid’s Response

    Reports emphasize Aster’s features: MEV-free execution, hidden orders that keep limit sizes private, and trading interfaces pitched at both retail and pro users.

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    That product story helps explain why some traders are rotating capital. Hyperliquid has not stood still; it has rolled out measures such as a USDH stablecoin and other moves meant to shore up liquidity and product breadth.

    Market data show HYPE has fallen from recent peaks — with declines reported near 25% from its highs — as money rotated into ASTER.

    Featured image from SleepApnea.org, chart from TradingView

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    Christian Encila

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  • All-Time Highs For Gold, S&P500; Crypto Stands Alone In The Red – What’s The Root Cause?

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    Crypto markets have recently faced renewed challenges, despite a brief resurgence following the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cut that initially propelled Bitcoin (BTC) back toward the $120,000 mark. 

    This week, however, Bitcoin has dropped to the lower end of its established consolidation range, fluctuating between $110,000 and $115,000. Analysts from The Bull Theory have pinpointed several factors contributing to this downturn.

    How Fed Policies And QT Are Impacting Crypto

    One of the primary reasons for the current situation is the ongoing capital flow favoring traditional assets. In the wake of rate cuts, institutional investors tend to channel their funds into stocks and gold first, as these are considered high-liquidity assets with a proven track record. 

    In contrast, cryptocurrencies, particularly altcoins, often find themselves at the end of the liquidity pipeline. They typically see price increases only when risk appetite broadens significantly among investors.

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    Additionally, liquidity remains tight in the crypto space, despite the Fed’s recent actions. While the central bank cut rates in September, other variables are restricting the flow of capital into cryptocurrencies. 

    Quantitative tightening (QT) is still being implemented, with the Fed actively reducing its balance sheet. Moreover, the US Treasury is absorbing liquidity through the replenishment of the Treasury General Account (TGA), and money market funds are currently holding over $7.7 trillion in cash that remains largely idle. 

    This lack of liquidity means that any spillover effect into the crypto market will be limited, resulting in a slower rotation of capital into digital assets.

    Cyclical Trends Suggest Potential Rebound

    The macroeconomic patterns observed in September 2024 are also reemerging. Last year, following a rate cut, Bitcoin surged past $60,000, while Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins enjoyed significant gains. However, this was followed by a sharp decline, with Bitcoin dropping 11% and Ethereum experiencing an even steeper fall. 

    In a similar vein, this September has seen Bitcoin hover around $112,000 after briefly touching $118,000, while Ethereum has slipped from $4,600 to approximately $4.1,00. 

    This cyclical pattern suggests that crypto may be primed for a rebound, but only after a period of consolidation and confirmation. Moreover, the impending expiry of options contracts for Bitcoin and Ethereum is adding another layer of volatility to the market. 

    Stablecoin Movement And Institutional Inflows

    Another factor impacting the market is the supply and velocity of stablecoins. While the total supply of stablecoins has surged from $204 billion in January to $308 billion in September—an all-time high—the velocity of these assets is not keeping pace. 

    The analysts have identified that much of this capital remains inactive, either sitting idle, bridged, or utilized off-exchange. Until stablecoin velocity increases, the price impact on cryptocurrencies is likely to remain subdued.

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    Looking ahead, historical trends suggest that although crypto may be lagging in the short term, they often follow traditional assets with significant gains once the market stabilizes. 

    In the aftermath of all-time highs in equity markets, Bitcoin has previously averaged a 12% increase within 30 days and a remarkable 35% over 90 days. Notably, following the Nasdaq’s all-time highs, Bitcoin surged by an impressive 46% in the same 90-day timeframe.

    For crypto markets to regain their momentum, active movement of stablecoins is essential, along with a cooling off of derivatives trading and substantial purchases from institutional investors and exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

    The daily chart shows the total crypto market cap valuation at $3.8 trillion. Source: TOTAL on TradingView.com

    Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

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    Ronaldo Marquez

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  • XRP Gets A Retirement Twist: Expert Calls It A 401(k)

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    First Ledger, a decentralized exchange on the XRPL, drew a sharp comparison this week when it said 401(k) and XRP are “basically the same thing” in their aim to grow long-term value.

    According to letters sent to the Securities and Exchange Commission, nine lawmakers — including House committee chairs French Hill and Ann Wagner — urged SEC Chair Paul Atkins to act on an executive order from US President Donald Trump that would make it easier for retirement plans to hold crypto. The move would touch roughly 90 million Americans who use 401(k) accounts.

    Lawmakers Push For 401(k) Access

    Based on reports, the push is aimed at loosening specific investor rules so retirement plans can include alternative assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP.

    If plans get access, even very small allocations could add big sums to markets. A one percent to two percent allocation across the $12 trillion 401(k) market has been put forward as a reasonable scenario. That math translates to roughly $120 billion to $240 billion flowing into crypto assets.

    Big Money, Big Comparisons

    To give that scale: Bitcoin exchange-traded funds drew $57 billion since January 2024. Over the same period, Bitcoin’s price is reported to have climbed from $45,000 to $124,457, and the global crypto market has grown from $1.65 trillion to more than $4.17 trillion.

    Reports also point out that public retirement systems are starting to add crypto exposure — for example, the State of Michigan Retirement System has increased holdings in Bitcoin and Ethereum trusts. Analysts say such moves make the 401(k) debate more than theoretical.


    Retirement Allocation

    Based on an analysis cited in August, if global retirement funds managing about $50 trillion allocated 1% — roughly $500 billion — to XRP, a simple linear estimate could place the price near $12.

    With wider multiplier effects, projections mentioned range from $17 to $34. For context, another analysis estimates a 2% allocation to Bitcoin could lift its price to about $175,000 and push Bitcoin’s market cap near $3.4 trillion.

    Retirement Funds Could Add Billions

    Market commentators argue that retirement money would likely flow into ETFs rather than raw coin purchases. Paul Barron has suggested that 401(k) capital would first head into crypto ETFs, and others have said that ETF access for XRP could be transformational.

    That view rests on the idea that ETFs are familiar, regulated wrappers which many plans use already. First Ledger’s comparison frames XRP as a tool for long-term value transfer, likening the token’s role in cross-border settlement to the steady goal of retirement savings.

    Featured image from NWM, chart from TradingView

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    Christian Encila

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  • XRP Price Chatter Heats Up After Developer’s $4 Hint – Details

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    According to posts and market watchers, a return by a well-known developer has reignited talk that XRP could move higher.

    Harry Harald — a web developer followed closely inside the XRP community — posted about XRP over the weekend in his first message since May.

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    The post prompted immediate reaction from other big voices, and some in the space now say a move to $4 is possible. XRP opened the week lower, slipping to $2.77 before recovering to about $2.82 at press time. It had been trading around $3 yesterday before sellers pushed prices down.

    Community Voices Drive Momentum

    Alex Cobb and other influencers amplified Harald’s remark, which helped spark fresh optimism among traders. Based on social posts, Cobb suggested that $4 could be the next stop on a rebound.

    From the current quote of $2.86, that would mean roughly a 42% rise, a gain that would push XRP above its long-held ceiling. That ceiling has been more than symbolic: XRP has not traded above $3.80 since 2018.

    Technical Indicators Point To Recovery

    Several chart analysts have flagged signals that they say back the bullish case. Ali Martinez reported a TD Sequential buy on the four-hour chart, an indicator some traders use to time entries after a string of lower closes.

    XRP market cap currently at $171 billion. Chart: TradingView

    Supporters point to historical backtests showing about 60–70% accuracy on higher timeframes, and that three out of four two-week buy signals since 2022 were followed by major rallies.

    Traders also note that XRP has broken a downtrend after bottoming at $2.65 on September 1, and that it is holding above the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 50-day moving average — both seen as bullish by many.

    Price Action And Key Levels

    XRP has been stuck near $3 for weeks, first stalling in July and failing to break out since. The token remains below a swing high of $3.65 established two months ago, a drop of about 25% from that peak.

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    Legal And ETF Narratives Influence Sentiment

    Beyond charts, legal and regulatory developments are feeding the story. Reports have disclosed that Ripple initially put a $125 million fine into escrow after Judge Torres issued her final judgment.

    The SEC agreed earlier this year to reduce the penalty to $50 million in a settlement, but the judge rejected requests to cut the original $125 million order.

    Both parties later withdrew appeals in the US Second Circuit in August, and the exact status of the escrowed funds has not been widely explained.

    Meanwhile, speculation that SEC approval for an XRP ETF could come next month has added another layer of bullish expectation, with some supporters saying billions might flow in if an ETF wins the regulator’s nod.

    Featured image from Unlock Media, chart from TradingView

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    Christian Encila

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  • Trump taps ‘Tough Patriot’ — L.A. lawyer known for crypto, guns — as 9th Circuit judge

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    He’s never held public office or donned a judge’s robes, but an arch-conservative Los Angeles County attorney is racing toward confirmation on the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, accelerating the once-liberal court’s sharp rightward turn under President Trump.

    A competitive target shooter with a background in a cryptocurrency, Eric Tung was approached by the White House Counsel’s Office on March 28 to replace Judge Sandra Segal Ikuta, a Bush appointee and one of the court’s most prominent conservatives, who is taking senior status.

    A new father and still a relative unknown in national legal circles, Tung found an ally in pal Mike Davis, a reputed “judge whisperer” in Trump’s orbit. Speaking to the New York Post in mid-March, Davis touted Tung as Ikuta’s likely successor.

    The Pasadena lawyer appeared on a Federalist Society panel at the Reagan Library this year, debating legal efforts to restrain “ ‘agents’ of the left.”

    “Eric is a Tough Patriot, who will uphold the Rule of Law in the most RADICAL, Leftist States like California, Oregon, and Washington,” Trump wrote on Truth Social when the nomination was announced in July.

    The response from California senators was apoplectic.

    “Mr. Tung believes in a conception of the Constitution that rejects equality and liberty, and that would turn back the clock and continue to exclude vast sections of the American public from enjoying equal justice under the law,” said Sen. Alex Padilla.

    In the past, senators from a potential judge’s home state could block a nomination — a custom Trump exploded when he steamrolled Washington senators to install Eric D. Miller to the 9th Circuit in 2019.

    Tung has been tight-lipped about his ascent to the country’s busiest circuit. He did not respond to inquiries from The Times.

    A Woodland Hills native and conservative Catholic convert, Tung made a name for himself as a champion of the crypto industry and elegant legal writer, frequently lecturing at California law schools and headlining Federalist Society events.

    After graduating from Yale and the University of Chicago Law School, he clerked for Supreme Court Justices Antonin Scalia and Neil Gorsuch before joining the white-shoe law firm Jones Day, a feeder to the Trump Justice Department.

    Many lauded the nomination when it was first announced, including the National Asian Pacific American Bar Assn.

    “Eric is a highly regarded originalist who would follow in the footsteps of Justice Scalia, for whom he clerked,” said Carrie Campbell Severino, president of the Judicial Crisis Network, a conservative legal advocacy group.

    Groups on the left, including Alliance for Justice, Demand Justice and the National Council of Jewish Women, have lobbied against putting Tung on the appellate court.

    If confirmed, Tung will be Trump’s 11th appointment to the 9th Circuit, a court the president vowed to remake when he first took office in 2017.

    During Trump’s first term, Judge Ikuta was part of a tiny conservative minority on the famously lopsided bench, a legacy of President Jimmy Carter’s decision to double the size of the circuit and pack it with liberal appointees.

    Many Trump judges ruffled feathers at first, and most have shown themselves to be “pretty conservative and pretty hard nosed,” said Carl Tobias, a professor at the University of Richmond School of Law.

    Their ranks include the former Hawaii Atty. Gen. Judge Mark J. Bennett, as well as the circuit’s first openly gay member, Judge Patrick J. Bumatay.

    Trump’s appellate appointees helped deliver him several controversial recent decisions, including the finding in June that Trump had broad discretion to deploy the military on American streets. Another 9th Circuit ruling this month found that the administration could all-but eliminate the country’s refugee program via an indefinite “pause.”

    But they’ve also clashed sharply with the Justice Department’s attorneys, even in cases where the appellate panel ultimately sided with the administration.

    That’s what the president is trying to avoid this time around — particularly with his picks headed in the west, experts said.

    “People on the far right are pushing [Trump] to have people who will be ‘courageous’ judges — in other words, do things that are really unpopular that Trump likes,” Tobias said.

    Tung may fit the bill. In addition to his crypto chops and avowed support for constitutional originalism, he has been an ardent defender of religious liberty and an opponent of affirmative action. He shoots competitively as part of the International Defensive Pistol Assn.

    Both Tung and his wife Emily Lataif have close ties to the anti-abortion movement. Tung worked extensively with the architect of Texas’ heartbeat bill; Lataif interned for the Susan B. Anthony List, an anti-abortion policy group that seeks to make IUDs and emergency contraception illegal and opposes many forms of in-vitro fertilization.

    “Emily is the epitome of grace under pressure, as was evidenced … when she and Eric had to evacuate their home during the California wildfires, only days after welcoming their first child,” Severino said. “She’s worked at the highest levels, from the White House to the executive team at Walmart, and her talent is matched only by her kindness and love for her family.”

    When asked by Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware whether he believed IVF was protected by the Constitution, Tung declined to answer.

    It wasn’t the only question the nominee ducked. Democratic members of the Senate Judiciary Committee accused Tung of giving only “sham answers” to their inquiries, both in chambers and through written follow-ups.

    After pressing him repeatedly for his position on landmark cases including Obergefell vs. Hodges and Lawrence vs. Texas — privacy right precedents Justice Clarence Thomas wrote should be reconsidered after the fall of Roe vs. Wade — Sen. Adam Schiff pushed the nominee for his opinion on Loving vs. Virginia, the 1967 case affirming interracial marriage.

    “Was that wrongly decided?” the California lawmaker asked the aspiring judge.

    “Senator, my wife and I are an interracial couple, so if that case were wrongly decided I would be in big trouble,” Tung said.

    “You’re willing to tell us you believe Loving was correctly decided, but you’re not willing to say the other decisions were correctly decided,” Schiff said. “That seems less originalist and more situational.”

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    Sonja Sharp

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  • Ripple CTO Drops Bombshell: XRP At The Core Of Trillions In Banking Future

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    According to the Ripple chief technology officer, a number of banks have started to adopt XRP for payments and one planned bank tied to Ripple will run entirely on the XRP Ledger.

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    That claim comes as Ripple seeks a New York banking charter, a Federal Reserve master account, and says it will conform with ISO 20022 messaging standards used by major banks.

    Reports have disclosed that these steps aim to make the token useful for large-scale settlement work.

    Banks Begin Real-World Use

    DBS and Franklin Templeton signed a memorandum of understanding this week to work on tokenized trading and lending products, reports disclosed. Franklin Templeton’s sgBENJI, a US dollar money market fund token, is launching on DBS Digital Exchange.

    Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin is being used to support trading activity and is reported to be valued at nearly $730 million. DBS is also exploring the acceptance of sgBENJI as repo collateral, which would add liquidity for tokenized assets. Lim Wee Kian of DBS said the move is a step toward offering institutional-grade digital asset services.

    Stablecoins, Custody, And Switching Between Assets

    According to Nigel Khakoo of Ripple, the system makes it easier to move between stablecoins and yield-generating tokens within a single setup. Franklin Templeton said it selected the XRP Ledger for cost and speed reasons, and for its role in scaling tokenized securities.

    Reports also name BNY Mellon as the custodian for reserves backing RLUSD, a detail that underlines the institutional angle Ripple is pushing.

    XRPUSD now trading at $2.97. Chart: TradingView

    Regulatory And Infrastructure Moves

    The token’s momentum follows legal and regulatory shifts in the US after Ripple’s long fight with the SEC. Reports note that more than 20 spot XRP ETFs are under consideration, a factor that could pull large institutional capital into the market.

    The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation — which handles up to $4 quadrillion in settlements a year — has mentioned tokenization in its planning documents, and researchers point out how tokenized settlement rails might change back-office flows if adopted widely.

    Momentum Meets Caution

    Banks are said to be moving slowly. Early integration tests and compliance checks are still under way. Industry sources say the combination of custody arrangements, stablecoins, and ledger-based settlement could unlock multi-trillion-dollar flows if real-world tokenization proves reliable. But those sources also warn that large-scale adoption will take time and careful risk controls.

    Speculation On Prices

    XRP currently trades around $2.8. Market chatter has heated up since the token rose nearly 600% between November 2024 and January 2025.

    Some analysts forecast a move to $50; others, like Edoardo Farina of Alpha Lions Academy, have floated $100. A handful of commentators discuss targets at $1,000. A small vocal group even claims $10,000 is possible.

    Related Reading

    One community pundit known as Xena said she believes it will reach that level “without a doubt,” a comment that highlights how much optimism lives alongside technical and regulatory progress.

    Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView

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    Christian Encila

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  • XRP Needs To Defend $2.98 Support To Avoid Deeper Correction – Details

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    XRP has failed to maintain bullish momentum after pushing as high as $3.13 during the week. At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $3.00 and testing its resilience above this level after sliding alongside Bitcoin. The resulting price action is a defining moment for XRP’s short-term trend, according to technical analysis, and crypto analyst CasiTrades has pointed out a decisive support level that could determine whether the bullish structure remains intact.

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    XRP Tests $2.98 Support Zone

    Taking to the social media platform X, crypto analyst CasiTrades highlighted an important support level that XRP must hold in order to continue its bullish momentum. According to CasiTrades, XRP’s most immediate challenge is at the $2.98 support line. 

    The analyst’s technical analysis outlines an Elliott Wave formation now unfolding into an ABC corrective pattern. The analysis unfolds XRP’s price action since the beginning of September into Elliot Waves and suggests that XRP is now playing out Wave 4, which is a corrective wave divided into an ABC pattern. 

    Although XRP is still holding above $2.98, momentum indicators such as the RSI on both the one-hour and four-hour timeframes show no bullish divergence, often a necessary condition for reversal. This puts the $2.98 level in the spotlight, and a break below it could increase the likelihood of further downside pressure.

    The analysis highlights the possibility of corrective Wave C extending below $2.98 towards Fibonacci retracement levels near the low $2.90s. The measured C wave extension points to the 0.618 Fib retracement, which is around $2.92 and $2.94. 

    XRPUSD now trading at $2.98. Chart: TradingView

    Interestingly, the 15-minute chart does reveal a short-term bullish divergence, offering a small window for relief bounces. However, without confirmation on the higher timeframes, such reactions are likely to remain temporary. The broader outlook, as outlined by the analyst, still leans toward the probability of another downward wave unless buyers step in strongly at $2.98 to restore confidence and preserve the larger bullish structure.

    Chart Image From X: CasiTrades

    Implications If XRP Holds Above $2.98

    If buyers manage to hold above $2.98, XRP could stabilize and enter a consolidation phase that will create a foundation for the next leg higher. This consolidation would give the XRP price the breathing room it needs for an eventual upward attempt, one that would mark the beginning of an impulse Wave 5 formation within the Elliott Wave count. In this scenario, a decisive push through the $3.10 level becomes the first hurdle, and breaking it would confirm that bullish momentum is once again in play.

    Should XRP successfully clear $3.10 with volume and follow-through, the next target identified by the analyst is another resistance at $3.25. A sustained bullish momentum beyond this point could carry the price toward the next resistance at $3.44.

    Related Reading

    At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $3.01, down by 2.8% in a seven-day timeframe. Preserving the bullish wave structure and holding above $2.98 at this point is essential to avoid the corrective pattern turning into a deeper downtrend. 

    Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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    Scott Matherson

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  • As XRP Grabs Headlines, Can Cardano Price Surge Toward $100?

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    While tokens like XRP dominate headlines amid rising ETF approval speculations, the Cardano price is also gaining attention as market conditions slowly recover from bearish trends. New data from Changelly, a crypto exchange, has suggested that Cardano could be gearing up for a massive breakout. The big question now is whether the cryptocurrency has the momentum to reach a $100 milestone. 

    Why A $100 Cardano Price Remains A Distant Goal

    Cardano’s price action has generated significant interest in recent months, as analysts from Changelly attempt to project its next big move. According to their forecasts, ADA remains a relatively low-priced cryptocurrency compared to some of its altcoin rivals like XRP, with projections pointing to modest gains in the near term and a potential surge above $100 by 2040. 

    Related Reading

    Changelly’s outlook for 2025 suggests a trading range between $0.77 and $0.97, with the average price stabilizing around $1.17. These numbers highlight a steady upward trend but remain far from the speculative $100 level. Breaking this down further, experts from the crypto platform project that in September 2025, ADA could fluctuate between $0.891 and $0.924, averaging near $0.908. 

    By October 2025, expectations widen slightly, with potential movement between $0.88 and $1.17. November’s outlook places the Cardano price between $0.77 and $1.05, averaging around $0.91, while December 2025 suggests values between $0.807 and $0.87. Taken together, these estimates show that ADA is likely to continue strengthening its price floor while maintaining realistic, incremental growth rather than explosive parabolic moves.

    ADAUSD now trading at $0.89. Chart: TradingView

    From this perspective, a $100 Cardano price seems improbable within the near or mid-term future. However, in the long-term, Changelly predicts that ADA could exceed the $100 target to reach $116.83 by February 2040. The maximum price for that month has also been set at $132.72. 

    Cardano’s Price Action

    While Changelly’s technical analysis provides insight into potential short-term price movements, Cardano’s long-term story is deeply rooted in its fundamentals. At present, the cryptocurrency trades around $0.91 with a circulating supply of over 35.7 billion ADA, giving it a market capitalization of approximately $32 billion. 

    ADA has displayed steady momentum in the last week, climbing 1.48% and nearly 6% over the past month. According to Changelly, this growth signals that Cardano still commands a solid market presence, reinforcing its potential for a breakout soon. Although the cryptocurrency has dipped by over $0.01 in the past 24 hours, Changelly points out that recent trading activity has turned notably bullish for the cryptocurrency.   

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    While Cardano’s strong fundamentals fuel its  expanding ecosystem and steady price recovery, its vast circulating supply makes a potential surge to $100 mathematically challenging. Reaching this level would demand a market cap far exceeding that of Bitcoin at its peak. Still, Changelly notes that ADA is showing great potential lately, suggesting that its current price level could be a good buying opportunity for investors.  

    Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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  • Bitcoin Holds $117,500 On Retail Support While Whales Stay Quiet – Cause For Concern?

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    Bitcoin (BTC) is holding near $117,500, up about 6.1% over the past two weeks. However, recent data from Binance shows that BTC’s current price action is largely supported by retail investors, while whales have been noticeably absent.

    Bitcoin Holds $117,500 Amid High Retail Inflows

    According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, Bitcoin is hovering around the $117,500 price level, supported by active inflows from retail investors. Notably, large whale inflows have been completely absent, indicating that the current market is being driven by individuals more than by large wallets.

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    Inflows ranging from 0 to 0.001 BTC recorded approximately 97,000 BTC. Similarly, inflows from the 0.001 to 0.01 BTC segment totaled nearly 719,000 BTC.

    Source: CryptoQuant

    The distribution above suggests that Bitcoin’s current rally is largely driven by retail investors. These investors conduct numerous but small-volume transactions, confirming that individual investors are shaping the market dynamics. Arab Chain added:

    The figures reveal that the bulk of inflows are concentrated in small and medium-sized transactions, reflecting the dominance of retail activity in Bitcoin trading. This liquidity, despite its limited scale, has helped keep the market balanced at current levels.

    It is worth emphasizing that there has been almost no whale pressure during the current market rally. Specifically, no significant surges in inflows of more than 100 BTC were observed, mitigating the likelihood of a sharp short-term price correction.

    To conclude, the current market situation shows that Bitcoin is experiencing a state of equilibrium, largely due to heightened retail investor participation. Such a scenario gives the market an opportunity to steadily surge toward the important $120,000 resistance level.

    That said, it would be wise to keep an eye on any whale activity, as it could quickly alter the market’s direction. Any sudden entry of whale inflows could trigger a rapid price correction, similar to previous market tops.

    Experts Divided On BTC Price Action

    As Bitcoin trades about 5.4% below its all-time high (ATH), there are signs that the top cryptocurrency by market cap may be on the cusp of a fresh rally. For instance, BTC recently broke above the mid-term holder breakeven, reducing the likelihood of an immediate sell-off.

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    Recent positive developments – such as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates by 25 basis points – could reinvigorate the crypto market. Against that backdrop, crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes recently reiterated his ambitious $1 million BTC prediction.

    That said, gold bug Peter Schiff opines that BTC has likely already peaked for this market cycle. At press time, BTC trades at $117,523, up 1.8% in the past 24 hours.

    bitcoin
    Bitcoin trades at $117,523 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

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    Ash Tiwari

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  • All About Yorkville, a Key Financier Funding One of Trump Media’s Billion-Dollar Crypto Plays

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    Alongside a two-lane road in Mountainside, New Jersey (population 7,020), is a small blue and white sign reading “YA,” which might be interpreted as an upbeat, blurted affirmative or as shorthand for a category of teen fiction, but is actually the logo of Yorkville Advisors. The firm’s office, a humble one-story building, is at the bottom of a small hill and hidden by hedges. Inside, billions of dollars in deals are engineered, including some for a very prominent client, a business associated with the president of the United States.

    Donald Trump and his family’s efforts to cash in on his return to the White House are broad and audacious, from Trump’s millions of dollars in World Liberty crypto to the Trump Organization’s licensing of the Trump name for a mobile-phone service costing $47.75 a month: Call 888-TRUMP45 now to sign up! The multifaceted drive has also been wildly lucrative. Forbes, in March, estimated that in the past year Trump’s net worth has more than doubled, to more than $5 billion. The New Yorker, in August, calculated that Trump and his family had profited approximately $3.4 billion off of Trump’s two presidencies.

    Some of the leaders of Trump’s new financial empire are familiar, such as sons Don Jr. and Eric, who are officially in charge of the Trump Organization, and Devin Nunes, the former California Republican congressman, who is now the CEO of the Trump Media & Technology Group, which operates Truth Social, the X alternative that is Trump Media’s highest-profile property. And some of the company’s institutional investors are financial industry heavyweights, including the Jane Street Group, the Vanguard Group, and Cantor Fitzgerald, the firm formerly run by Howard Lutnick, who is now Trump’s commerce secretary.

    But Yorkville is largely unknown beyond financial circles. How did the previously inconspicuous firm become an integral part of Trump’s financial orbit? Yorkville and its founder, Mark Angelo, aren’t saying, and neither is Trump Media; both companies did not return requests for comment. Angelo does not appear to have donated to any of Trump’s presidential campaigns, though he contributed $1,000 to Hillary Clinton’s 2008 bid. Yet a July 2024 press release announced that Trump Media and Yorkville had struck a standby equity purchase agreement—similar to a line of credit, in which Yorkville agreed to buy a set amount of Trump Media’s shares at Trump Media’s discretion.

    Last year Trump Media put the deal into effect, selling about 20 million shares at a discount to Yorkville and generating nearly $450 million in cash. In January came the announcement that an affiliate of Yorkville would serve as the registered investment adviser for Trump Media’s new financial services arm, Truth.Fi, which plans to offer exchange traded funds and other products that will invest in the “patriot economy.” In August, Yorkville Acquisition, a SPAC that’s affiliated with Yorkville Advisors and of which Angelo is the chairman, and Crypto.com teamed up with Trump Media to launch Trump Media Group CRO Strategy, a firm that said it was expecting to acquire $6.4 billion to buy CRO crypto tokens. A Yorkville affiliate would provide the new company with a $5 billion equity line of credit. Last week the Cayman Islands–incorporated Yorkville Acquisition announced that it would be renamed to Trump Media Group CRO Strategy.

    On the surface the pairing seems unlikely: One of the world’s most famous, most powerful men is relying on an inconspicuous suburban financial firm. But in some respects Trump and Yorkville appear to be a natural alliance. “[Trump Media] is a risky, controversial, early-stage company without a lot of revenue, without a lot of operating history, and in need of cash. And that’s just the kind of company that Yorkville gets involved with,” says Justin Hibbard, a CPA and former examiner for FINRA who has written about Yorkville on his Substack, “Shortfinder.” “They do a lot of business with biotech companies, life science companies that are at a very early stage of development. They seem to pretty consistently liquidate their positions at prices that are favorable for Yorkville. They’re good at what they do.”

    In April, Yorkville made a standby equity purchase agreement with Newsmax. The Fox News alternative can raise up to $1.2 billion in cash by selling shares to Yorkville, an arrangement that Hibbard has highlighted as risky because it could dilute the value of Newsmax stocks on the market. Chris Ruddy, the Newsmax CEO, declined to comment.

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    Chris Smith

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  • The Fed Just Changed Everything For Crypto, Says Top Trader

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    The Federal Reserve’s first rate cut of 2025 has landed—25 basis points on September 17—and, in Trader Mayne’s telling, that removes the last macro “X-factor” hanging over the crypto market. In a video analysis posted the same day, the veteran price-action trader argued that with the policy move now in the rear-view mirror, crypto can “just focus on the charts,” sketching a roadmap in which Bitcoin posts one more leg higher into new all-time highs before a pullback ushers in a classic altseason blow-off. “We had FOMC today and the rates got cut finally… It’s 25 basis points,” he said. “Now the market’s going to digest it.”

    Where Is Bitcoin Price Going Next?

    The policy backdrop he’s reacting to is straightforward: the FOMC lowered the fed funds target range by a quarter point to 4.00%–4.25% on Sept. 17, with Chair Jerome Powell describing the move as a risk-management response to weakening labor dynamics and leaving the door open to additional easing this year. The decision drew an 11–1 vote, with newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a larger, 50 bps cut—an unusually hawkish dissent in a dovish direction—while the Board’s implementation note reset key administered rates effective Sept. 18. Markets read the statement and projections as signaling scope for further cuts into year-end.

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    From here, Mayne’s framework is unapologetically technical. He characterizes Bitcoin’s most recent upswing as corrective relative to the prior impulse and expects price to “push above the mid-range” toward a range high around $120,000–$121,000, where he will watch for rejection at a higher-time-frame confluence defined by a weekly swing-failure pattern (SFP) and an H12 breaker.

    If momentum stalls there, he plans to short into a washout to clear out built-up leverage—“HYPE made another all-time high today. PUMP has tripled in the last two weeks… there’s some leverage in the system”—and then buy the dip for what he calls the last parabolic leg of the cycle. “Any sort of dip on BTC, I want to be looking for a long,” he said, adding that a shallow retest in the $110,000–$111,000 area or a deeper sweep of recent lows would both be acceptable springboards if the rebound is decisive.

    If, instead, price grinds through the $120,000 s with no signs of exhaustion, Mayne says he has “no problem” flipping to breakout longs above the all-time high once strength is confirmed intraday—an approach that mirrors his playbook from prior expansions (“Once this thing broke out aggressively… you’re looking for longs”). He emphasizes sequence over prediction: the short he’s eyeing is counter-trend—“a pullback in an uptrend”—and the prime objective remains to position for the next impulsive advance.

    When Will The Crypto Market Top?

    Timing-wise, he situates the prospective cycle top in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026, describing a pattern in which Bitcoin’s final vertical leg into the $150,000 to $180,000 region is followed by distribution while altcoins reprice higher—the archetypal altseason.

    Bitcoin price prediction
    Bitcoin price prediction | Source: YouTube @Trader Mayne

    “This parabolic leg I think would be the last leg of the bull run,” he said, before outlining notional alt targets consistent with a late-cycle melt-up: Ethereum $5,000–$7,000, Solana $300–$500, Dogecoin $0.50–$0.70. The mechanics, as he narrates them: a last BTC push, a corrective wash, a V-shaped reclaim of the 2024 ATH “very quickly,” then Q4 “mania” with breadth shifting to large-cap alts as Bitcoin distributes.

    Related Reading

    The technical scaffolding behind that view leans on concepts familiar to discretionary price-action traders. Weekly SFPs (failed breaks of prior extremes) set the trap line at range edges; H12 breakers and order blocks frame high-probability reaction zones; and fair-value gaps guide where liquidity vacuums might fill during a corrective flush.

    On structure, he insists the weekly trend remains up, so any short is tactical and any deeper dip must resolve in a swift V-bottom and reclaim of the former highs to keep the cyclical script intact. His invalidation is equally clear: “If we spend any significant time back below [the 2024 all-time high], it’s really bad… I’m probably going to reassess my thoughts.”

    Macro, in Mayne’s view, now recedes to the background. The rate cut may have helped pull forward some September strength—“you could argue… the up move we’ve seen on Bitcoin… is in anticipation of this rate cut”—but with the decision made and Powell hinting there “could be another one… there could be two,” his emphasis is squarely on execution: wait for price to trade into the $120,000s and signal weakness for the clean counter-trend short; or, absent weakness, wait for the breakout continuation and ride it. Either way, he’s explicit about the north star for the coming weeks: “Focus on Bitcoin… Any sort of dip on BTC, I want to be looking for a long… Then altseason.”

    At press time, BTC traded at $117,176.

    Bitcoin price
    BTC eyes the 1.272 Fib extension, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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    Jake Simmons

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  • Dogecoin May Pause Above $0.27 Before Charging Toward $0.45 – Analyst

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    They say journalists never truly clock out. But for Christian, that’s not just a metaphor, it’s a lifestyle. By day, he navigates the ever-shifting tides of the cryptocurrency market, wielding words like a seasoned editor and crafting articles that decipher the jargon for the masses. When the PC goes on hibernate mode, however, his pursuits take a more mechanical (and sometimes philosophical) turn.

    Christian’s journey with the written word began long before the age of Bitcoin. In the hallowed halls of academia, he honed his craft as a feature writer for his college paper. This early love for storytelling paved the way for a successful stint as an editor at a data engineering firm, where his first-month essay win funded a months-long supply of doggie and kitty treats – a testament to his dedication to his furry companions (more on that later).

    Christian then roamed the world of journalism, working at newspapers in Canada and even South Korea. He finally settled down at a local news giant in his hometown in the Philippines for a decade, becoming a total news junkie. But then, something new caught his eye: cryptocurrency. It was like a treasure hunt mixed with storytelling – right up his alley!

    So, he landed a killer gig at NewsBTC, where he’s one of the go-to guys for all things crypto. He breaks down this confusing stuff into bite-sized pieces, making it easy for anyone to understand (he salutes his management team for teaching him this skill).

    Think Christian’s all work and no play? Not a chance! When he’s not at his computer, you’ll find him indulging his passion for motorbikes. A true gearhead, Christian loves tinkering with his bike and savoring the joy of the open road on his 320-cc Yamaha R3. Once a speed demon who hit 120mph (a feat he vowed never to repeat), he now prefers leisurely rides along the coast, enjoying the wind in his thinning hair.

    Speaking of chill, Christian’s got a crew of furry friends waiting for him at home. Two cats and a dog. He swears cats are way smarter than dogs (sorry, Grizzly), but he adores them all anyway. Apparently, watching his pets just chillin’ helps him analyze and write meticulously formatted articles even better.

    Here’s the thing about this guy: He works a lot, but he keeps himself fueled by enough coffee to make it through the day – and some seriously delicious (Filipino) food. He says a delectable meal is the secret ingredient to a killer article. And after a long day of crypto crusading, he unwinds with some rum (mixed with milk) while watching slapstick movies.

    Looking ahead, Christian sees a bright future with NewsBTC. He says he sees himself privileged to be part of an awesome organization, sharing his expertise and passion with a community he values, and fellow editors – and bosses – he deeply respects.

    So, the next time you tread into the world of cryptocurrency, remember the man behind the words – the crypto crusader, the grease monkey, and the feline philosopher, all rolled into one.

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    Christian Encila

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  • Sacramento restaurants embrace cryptocurrency with Food Token

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    Sacramento startup, Food Token, is adding another way local restaurants can accept payment – cryptocurrency. Brian Barton, founder of Food Token, shared his journey with KCRA 3, inspired by his frustrations with traditional banking, leading to the idea for Food Token.”I want to do my banking with a restaurant. I don’t need a bank in between,” he said.In 2024, approximately 17% of American adults say they have invested in or own cryptocurrencies.Food Token is already operational in select Sacramento restaurants, including Jim Boys, Brookfield’s, Chocolate Fish, and Beach Hut Deli. Barton explained that the platform allows restaurants to accept the five major cryptocurrencies.Barton also addressed concerns about security for consumers.“From the restaurant’s point of view, the restaurant is never seeing the cryptocurrency. The restaurant is just accepting it just as they would a digital gift card,” Barton said. Barton noted that convincing restaurants to do something new has been an uphill battle, particularly when it’s about a new field like cryptocurrency. Sacramento was chosen as the launch site for Food Token due to its status as the “farm-to-fork capital” and Barton’s personal connection to the area. “We want to find a use case first for restaurants in the Sacramento area and for consumers in the Sacramento area,” Barton said, emphasizing the importance of understanding local needs before expanding.For those interested in using Food Token, Barton encouraged restaurants to reach out via their website, offering a straightforward way to start accepting cryptocurrency.”We only charge $0.10 per transaction, unlike Visa and Mastercard,” he said, highlighting the financial benefits for restaurants.As cryptocurrency continues to gain popularity, Food Token aims to simplify the process for both consumers and restaurants, paving the way for a new era of digital payments in the restaurant industry.See more coverage of top California stories here | Download our app | Subscribe to our morning newsletter | Find us on YouTube here and subscribe to our channel

    Sacramento startup, Food Token, is adding another way local restaurants can accept payment – cryptocurrency.

    Brian Barton, founder of Food Token, shared his journey with KCRA 3, inspired by his frustrations with traditional banking, leading to the idea for Food Token.

    “I want to do my banking with a restaurant. I don’t need a bank in between,” he said.

    In 2024, approximately 17% of American adults say they have invested in or own cryptocurrencies.

    Food Token is already operational in select Sacramento restaurants, including Jim Boys, Brookfield’s, Chocolate Fish, and Beach Hut Deli. Barton explained that the platform allows restaurants to accept the five major cryptocurrencies.

    Barton also addressed concerns about security for consumers.

    “From the restaurant’s point of view, the restaurant is never seeing the cryptocurrency. The restaurant is just accepting it just as they would a digital gift card,” Barton said.

    Barton noted that convincing restaurants to do something new has been an uphill battle, particularly when it’s about a new field like cryptocurrency.

    Sacramento was chosen as the launch site for Food Token due to its status as the “farm-to-fork capital” and Barton’s personal connection to the area.

    “We want to find a use case first for restaurants in the Sacramento area and for consumers in the Sacramento area,” Barton said, emphasizing the importance of understanding local needs before expanding.

    For those interested in using Food Token, Barton encouraged restaurants to reach out via their website, offering a straightforward way to start accepting cryptocurrency.

    “We only charge $0.10 per transaction, unlike Visa and Mastercard,” he said, highlighting the financial benefits for restaurants.

    As cryptocurrency continues to gain popularity, Food Token aims to simplify the process for both consumers and restaurants, paving the way for a new era of digital payments in the restaurant industry.

    See more coverage of top California stories here | Download our app | Subscribe to our morning newsletter | Find us on YouTube here and subscribe to our channel

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  • Tether to launch new US stablecoin, Bo Hines to lead project

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    Tether Holdings SA, the company behind the world’s most traded cryptocurrency, is bringing its digital dollar home, unveiling a US-regulated stablecoin and appointing Bo Hines, a former White House crypto official, to lead the effort. The token will be launched in partnership with Cantor Fitzgerald LP and Anchorage Digital Bank NA, El Salvador-based Tether said […]

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  • Tether to launch new US stablecoin, Bo Hines to lead project

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    Tether Holdings SA, the company behind the world’s most traded cryptocurrency, is bringing its digital dollar home, unveiling a US-regulated stablecoin and appointing Bo Hines, a former White House crypto official, to lead the effort. The token will be launched in partnership with Cantor Fitzgerald LP and Anchorage Digital Bank NA, El Salvador-based Tether said […]

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  • Cardano Founder Hoskinson Says Ethereum Is Doomed To Fail: Here’s How

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    In a wide-ranging CoinDesk interview released yesterday, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson sharpened a years-long critique of Ethereum’s long-term viability, arguing that the network’s reliance on rollups and external scaling layers has created economic incentives that will ultimately hollow out the base chain. While acknowledging Ethereum’s technical progress, he contended that “as a general-purpose, smart-contract ledger,” the project has nurtured an ecosystem that “will slowly but surely eat [it] alive.”

    Why Ethereum Is Doomed To Fail: Cardano Founder

    Hoskinson framed the core problem as one of misaligned incentives between Ethereum’s L1 and its expanding constellation of L2s. “To make Ethereum better, they’ve had to embrace layer twos,” he said. “The layer twos are not strong allies… they’re partners of necessity.”

    In his view, rollup teams “don’t particularly care if they’re attached to Solana or they become a layer one,” so if better economics or user growth lie elsewhere, “they could simply migrate or go multi-chain.” New applications and liquidity, he added, are already “outside of the Ethereum ecosystem,” eroding the network’s historical network effects.

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    “So if they’re gobbling up the transaction volume and gobbling up the users and they’re gobbling up the token appreciation, if there’s a more attractive target, they could simply migrate or go multi-chain,” Hoskinson said, adding that this trend is already observable with LayerZero and Espresso.

    That erosion, Hoskinson argued, is set to accelerate as two external forces gather momentum. First, he described Bitcoin DeFi as a “sleeping giant” that could attract “hundreds of billions” in total value once primitives such as stablecoins, DEXs and lending are built with credible security assumptions. “When Bitcoin wakes up… its TVL will be… larger than the market cap of Ethereum,” he said, noting that sovereigns and major asset managers would likely prefer to build around Bitcoin exposure.

    Second, he expects large technology platforms and traditional financial institutions to enter with their own infrastructure, adjacent to public chains but not economically dependent on Ethereum’s base layer—“Microsoft… Google… Amazon… have no incentive to go boost Ethereum or deploy on Ethereum,” he said.

    The technological arc, in Hoskinson’s telling, also tilts away from shared-state blockchains. As zero-knowledge proofs and “proof-carrying code” mature, more computation can be executed off-chain—in secure enclaves, on devices, or within MPC systems—leaving the chain to verify succinct proofs. “Why… spend billions of dollars a year maintaining this very weak computer that’s shared and replicated,” he asked, “when you can turn it into a distributed problem that runs everywhere?”

    Like Microsoft missing mobile and pivoting from Windows dominance to Azure, he suggested, Ethereum may ultimately need to “pivot to a new McGuffin” to retain relevance even if it remains present in the stack.

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    Notably, Hoskinson’s assessment was not unqualified dismissal. He credited Ethereum for “keeping up with the times,” investing in rollups and zero-knowledge technology, and building a “Goliath” ecosystem that survived early funding scares and the DAO crisis. “They’ve done some really incredible things,” he said, and he allowed that “it’s entirely possible that Ethereum could pivot… and get very good at that” new role. The nub of his skepticism is not competence but structure: in his view, the more rollups succeed, the less compelling the L1 becomes as the economic hub.

    The remarks reprise and elaborate on a stance Hoskinson aired earlier this year, when he said during an AMA: “I don’t think Ethereum will survive more than 10 to 15 years,” predicting that L2s would “suckle out all of the alpha.”

    Hoskinson’s analysis also folds into his own current bets for Cardano. He cast Bitcoin-centric DeFi as a three-rule design target—security derived from Bitcoin, fees paid in Bitcoin, and yields returned in Bitcoin—and argued that companion chains and trust-minimized bridges will be necessary to make it work. He presented Cardano’s extended-UTXO design and its privacy sidechain Midnight as infrastructure positioned to serve that market while offering selective-disclosure compliance for institutions.

    At press time, ADA traded at $0.89.

    Cardano price
    ADA must break the black trendline, 1-week chart | Source: ADAUSDT on TradingView.com

    Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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    Jake Simmons

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  • Podcast: FV Bank CEO Miles Paschini on future of stablecoin

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    FV Bank aims to stay ahead of emerging technology trends, including stablecoins.  

    The Puerto Rico-based digital bank integrated stablecoins three years ago, ahead of the recent excitement around the cryptocurrency, Chief Executive Miles Paschini tells Bank Automation News on this episode of “The Buzz” podcast.  

    “We had the idea that stablecoins could play an important role in banking, so we integrated with USDC,” he says. 

    In fact, according to British bank Standard Chartered, the stablecoin market is expected to reach $2 trillion by 2028, up from $250 billion last month.  

    Additionally, during the first half of the year, crypto and digital asset companies raised $8.4 billion, compared with $10.7 billion in all of 2024, according to KPMG’s Pulse of Fintech report, published in July.  

    Today, stablecoins are the fastest-growing segment of the Puerto Rico-based digital bank’s business, Paschini says. “We’re processing in the billions of dollars per month.” 

    Listen to “The Buzz” to hear Paschini discuss emerging uses for stablecoins, the growth in the segment and how the digital bank is innovating.  

    The following is a transcript generated by AI technology that has been lightly edited but still contains errors.

    Whitney McDonald 12:29:04
    Whitney, hello and welcome to The Buzz a bank automation news podcast. My name is Whitney McDonald and I’m the editor of bank automation News. Today is September 9, 2025 Joining me is miles paschini, CEO of FV bank. He’s here to discuss FV bank’s approach to emerging technology, including their ongoing stablecoin efforts. Thanks for joining us.Miles Paschini 12:29:24
    Miles, yeah, well, first, thanks for having me. I really appreciate I know we’ve had a chance to speak off, off of a live discussion in the past. I usually like to start introducing FB bank. By the name a lot of people are. You know, what does FB stand for? And it stands for FinTech ventures. And that really helps tell the story about, you know, who we are and where we come from. When we started this out thinking that, you know, we’re going to start with a bank license. Most people don’t start a FinTech company with a bank license. And so our view is that let’s build a FinTech company that has all of the regulatory framework that’s necessary, you know, to do the the types of projects that we want to do. So first and foremost, we see ourselves as a FinTech company that operates with inside of a regular, regulated banking environment. You know, as for myself, I’ve been in the payments world pretty much my whole career. My last venture before this was in the card issuing space, where we were the first company to introduce crypto link debit cards back in 2013 approximately when it was way before anybody was thinking about this space where, how did you bridge digital assets to the real tradify world? Back in 2013 we were enabling people to swipe a Visa card and spend Bitcoin. So we’ve been in this mindset of, how do you bridge new technologies and payments to the existing world. And that’s really a lot of what FB bank is about is, when I if I have a chance to draw something to somebody, I’ll typically draw a circle that is the TRad fi. I draw another circle, which is, you know, the future blockchain, whatever you want to call it, and there’s a Venn diagram in the middle, and that’s where we see our sweet spot. How do we bridge traditional financial solutions with, you know, emerging or, you know, scaling like stable coin solutions. That’s really what we’re about and figuring out, you know, why? How do we find that sweet spot to bridge what I would consider more of like FinTech initiatives with traditional banking?

    Whitney McDonald 12:31:22
    I think that’s the perfect segue into the next question, which is exactly that, you know, marrying traditional banking with emerging technology. How do you approach emerging technology? I know that we’re going to talk here about stable coin a little bit more specifically, but maybe just on a broader scale. How do you ensure that you’re keeping up with the new trends? Investing in the right tech, maybe kind of from a from a broader scale. How are you monitoring the emerging technology landscape?

    Speaker 1 12:31:51
    Yeah, I like to think that we are forward thinking, just in our process, strategically as a as a company, when we wrote our business plan. And, you know, in 2018 2019 timeframe, it’s pretty much the same. And it was, you know, how do we take traditional banking services and combine them with digital assets. And so that business plan that we wrote described a future where the two interoperate with each other pretty seamlessly, and we’ve just been refining that. What does that actually mean? So at the highest level, you say, Hey, we’re going to run a banking service, but we’re also going to run digital asset services. And then, how do you actually commercialize that? How do people actually get benefit from that concept? And so that’s really what we’ve been doing, I think. To give an example, in November, it will be three years that we’ve integrated stable coins into Fe bank. And most you know the I would say the sensational concepts around stable coins have only really emerged in the market in the last year from a broader perspective. And so three years ago, we, I would say it’s more than three years ago, because it takes time to implement these strategies, but we had the idea that stable coins could play an important role in banking. So we integrated with USDC three years ago. And we, you know, we took kind of a novel approach, which was not just to say that will support stable coins, which is what I think a lot of people are looking at, but how do we integrate it? And so when someone opens an account at FV bank, you get a wallet address. So, you know, your typical account would come with a routing number and an account number, and for three years now, we’ve been providing people with wallet addresses, and cross chain wallet addresses at that. So you can, you know, you can get an ERC 20, a Tron, Solana and polygon address with your bank account. And so we’ve taken this approach that you don’t just support it, but you integrate it and you make it useful. And I think that’s really the strategy that we’ve had is, you know, how do we how do we not just say that we support digital assets, it sounds good on the headlines, but how do we actually make it useful for people, and then with that, you know, if you’re running a bank and you’re listening to this today, you’ll soon find out that the devil’s in the details, and that’s really where we. Excelled is figuring out, how do you make the transactionality work for everyone involved, for all the stakeholders, how do you make the compliance work? How do you facilitate treasury management in a world where they’re completely different? You know, Fiat treasury management versus digital asset treasury management are different worlds. And so I think that’s where we’ve done a really good job, is figuring out, how do you, you know, how do you not only embrace it, but how do you make it work, and how do you get the details right?

    Whitney McDonald 12:34:34
    Now, we kind of talked about betting on emerging technology, and what you mentioned here is that you’ve implemented, you know, stable coins. Three years ago, you were, you know, ahead of the game on this front and now you’re seeing it in the headlines. And, you know, you kind of can’t get away from the stable coin. Maybe talk us through, like, why? Three years ago, this was something to bet on. What were you watching for? What are you seeing now with the adoption that we’re kind of on the other side of it, where it is, you know, all over the news,

    Speaker 1 12:35:04
    yeah, so our first approach was that stable coins were another payment rail. So we thought of it like, you know, you have Ach, you have fed wire, you have swift you have local payment solutions like Faster Payments and sepa, and you know, that are country specific or region specific. And we looked at stable coins as kind of like a global payment rail, so it’s not tied to any particular country, or, by that point, any particular fiat currency. It was a way to move value from one point to another, and so we wanted to embrace that, and that was really the plumbing level. So how do I enable a customer from anywhere in the world to transfer value from where they are to Fe bank? Or how do I enable a customer that has dollars at FB bank to send value to anywhere in the world in nearly instant transaction? And it was less about stable coins than it was about the payment rail as a means of transferring value over the internet. And so I think that that’s what really got us interested. First, it was a competitive product to Swift and fed wire, if you will, in the concept of transferring value. And then most companies, even today, in spite of the euphoria of stable coins, don’t want to hold on to stable coins. You know, they have, they have Treasury needs in fiat currency, and specifically in dollars. And so that original vision that we had with which was, this was a transport protocol for value. It’s playing out. And I think today, you know, if we, if I go a little deeper, we have generally two types of customers. We have customers who use stable coins for receiving value into the bank. So they’re, they’re receiving stable coins, but converting it to dollars, so they can use those dollars for, you know, Fiat based payments, but we have customers that are the that are the other direction. They’re receiving dollars into the bank, and they’re aggregating those dollars, and they’re sending out stable coins and so complete two completely different use cases, but they’re utilizing the same underlying technology, which is the transportation of value over the internet.

    Whitney McDonald 12:37:08
    Now maybe we can talk a little bit on the innovation front. You guys have a new, recently launched product, the virtual account identifier.

    Speaker 1 12:37:16
    Yeah. So interestingly enough, this is one of those needs that was born out of something you wouldn’t, you wouldn’t think is the first driver, which is compliance. We, you know, we have customers who have a need for virtual accounts that you know, the basic function of a virtual account is reconciliation and tracking of value. So if I’m a marketplace and I have 10,000 customers, and I want those 10,000 customers to be able to make payments to my marketplace, how do I make each one of those relationships unique from a payment perspective? How do I reconcile transactions against those 10,000 people and virtual accounts allow you to do that. Allows you to, you know, segregate data by a unique number that’s tied to, let’s say, an individual or a person, but that ultimately is getting aggregated into a bank account, and so it allows very low level and detailed reconciliation of data. That’s the that’s one of the drivers. But for us, the driver was compliance and understanding. How do we embrace this world where there’s a lot of virtualization of financial services, but at the same time, increase our compliance capability? And so for our customer, they see a benefit in reconciliation uniqueness. We see it as a enhancement in compliance. And what this allows us to do is to know our customers. Customer, which is a key emerging requirement for banking as a service providers. It used to be that, you know, the regulatory burden was I need to know my customer. I need to know my customers business, and I need to monitor my customers activity that is now changing in that I not only do I need to know my customer, but I need to know my customers customers, and that that is at the the data level. So you know, who is this person? What kind. Are they from? You know, what is their date of birth? Like PII, about that person I need to know. And I need to know that because we have increasingly more challenging compliance requirements across a global landscape. And so for us, we offered our customers the ability to have a new feature, which really helps their business, but that feature actually helps us to become better at compliance, and that was the real driver for us, is, how do we scale this business in a compliant way while offering our customer more features?

    Whitney McDonald 12:39:37
    How’s it being adopted? You know, any numbers to share here?

    Speaker 1 12:39:43
    Yeah, so I just want to mention that we took it kind of a step further where, I mean, we’re not the first company to introduce virtual accounts, but we took it a step further in that we incorporated stable coins into our virtual account scheme. And that is that if you’re a customer of ours and you want to leverage our virtual account capability, not only can you get virtual accounts which are tied to traditional bank account, but you can also get virtual accounts that are tied to stable points. So for example, if I were to create an account, if you were my customer, and I created an account for you, and I give you a routing and a unique account number. The unique account number is your virtual account. But I can also give you, let’s say, an ERC 20 wallet address, which is uniquely tied to you, so that when you as a customer interact with our with the banking system, we can uniquely identify those transactions for you as an individual, whether it’s banking or stable coin. So we took it a step further, and we extended that capability to stable coin transactions, not just banking. And the use cases are kind of similar to what I gave. The example of just use a marketplace in general, if you were on something like Etsy, and Etsy wanted to enable all of their merchants to be able to accept payments in stable coin or to accept payments via ACH or wire transfer. This is a product that they would use, they would create virtual account scenarios for each one of their marketplace customers, and then each one of those marketplace customers would be able to accept payments via direct bank transfers or via stable coins. So that would be a simple example. Another example would be in the in the cryptocurrency space. So if you’re a crypto exchange, and you want to enable your customers to on ramp via stable coins or via bank transfers. You would provide each one of your customers one of these virtual accounts, and then you could uniquely track their transactions. You can register that user inside of our system and and you can not only offer them banking transactions, but also stable coin off ramps. It’s also used in scenarios like brokerage accounts or what we call over the counter trading, so where you have contract based transactions. So this is common in institutional level trading, where you have a liquidity provider or an OTC desk that’s doing block trades of transactions with customers. So an example would be, I’m buying or selling a million dollars worth of bitcoin. When there’s a buyer or seller in that transaction, someone has to pay in Fiat, typically, to acquire the Bitcoin. So how do you uniquely track that transaction in your in your brokerage, let’s say, and the way you do that is by providing with in this example, you provide the buyer a virtual account. So we see that a lot where our clients will create a virtual account. They’re doing what we call contract transactions. So contract transaction is a very specific invoice or or defined transaction. I’m buying $1 million with the Bitcoin, for example, and when you combine virtual accounts with that, the our customer is able to automate and integrate those transactions because, especially in that example, they need low cost, high efficiency. It’s typically like a high frequency trading. There’s not a lot of margin. They need efficiency. And so imagine that if the buyer sends in his funds, my client will get a web hook. Because we’re API integrated solution, they’ll know that that customer has paid. They can trigger off then, let’s say, the confirmation of that trade transaction, and they can deliver the Bitcoin to the buyer. So not only does it allow them to reconcile and track transactions, but it also allows them to integrate data through APIs and essentially create automations in their workflows.

    Whitney McDonald 12:43:35
    Thank you for those examples and kind of you know, putting it into real life use cases now, in terms of those stable enabling stable coin transactions via this rail. Are you seeing those transactions take place with stable coin? Absolutely.

    Speaker 1 12:43:52
    It’s the fastest growing segment of our business. From a volume perspective, we’re processing, you know, in the billions of dollars per month. So it’s not insignificant total volume that we’re probably. Processing, and it’s growing. The use cases are growing. We’re seeing different variations of the use cases emerging. A lot of, I would say, kind of the early adopters were the institutional, digital asset native companies. Those are the early adopters of the solutions. A lot of those customers were trying to hedge FX, for example. So we saw clients that were working in Latin America, where there’s a lot of volatility in inflation of their currency, and they’re using stable coins to help stabilize that. Those are kind of the early adopters. Now we’re seeing more transactional customers that are fulfilling, you know, invoice level transactions by either paying or being paid or being or paying in stable coin. We’re also seeing our early days were more weighted by stable coin redemptions, which is our customers receiving stable coin and converting it to dollars. Now we’re seeing a more balanced two way activity, which is, instead of just redemption, we’re seeing customers that have dollars with us, and they’re paying their obligations in stable coins. So the early market was really this one sided redemption. Now it’s changing to a more balanced, two sided type of transactionality, where people are identifying use cases, not to just received stable coins as payment, but also to make payments in stable coin, which means that, you know, when I have a customer that is comfortable and habitually making payments in stable coins, that means that there’s a beneficiary of that payment who’s gotten comfortable with it, right? That means there’s a new party on the other side of the transaction. So that’s where I see the growth is that it’s not just the early adopters anymore. It is other businesses that are seeing the benefit of receiving stable coins and having confidence in the receipt of those stable coins. That’s equal to fiat currency. Yeah.

    Whitney McDonald 12:46:01
    I mean, there’s two sides of it, right? Someone has to be receiving it. Someone has to be sending it if you’re seeing that that growth there like it takes two to tango, right? Exactly.

    Speaker 1 12:46:12
    And so I think you know, we’re seeing that growth in more customers, or more of our customers, customers or beneficiaries, are getting comfortable receiving stable coins, if you think about it, from just a basic commerce perspective. Let’s say that you’re selling, you know, widgets in China, and I want to buy your widgets, I need to send you a million dollars to buy widgets. If I do that through traditional way, I’m going to send you a bank wire, and it’s going to be, you know, between one to three days for that payment to settle. It will pass through one or more intermediary banks that may not have, may or may not have compliance holds different things that will happen. So that’s what, that’s where you get the t1 to t3, kind of settlement period. If I take that same transaction and I need to pay you a million dollars for widgets, and you’re in China, I can pay you from Fe bank via stable coin, and you’ll have the funds in 20 minutes, right? So that, what does that mean? That means that maybe you ship my order today, right? And depending on the day of the week, maybe I get it shipped, you know, today, instead of getting it shipped in five days, because maybe it settles, maybe my payment settles to you on a Friday, you can’t ship it until the next Monday, right? Right? And so you’re talking about speeding up the whole economy, which is a huge you know, imagine if you’re a vendor in America and you’re out of widgets, and you need them, right? You want them on the next FedEx flight to the United States. And so, so will people say, Well, you know, Swift is fast, and fed wire is fast. That’s true, but stable coins are faster, and stable coins don’t have some of the features that traditional payments have. Now, in particular, stable coins are generally not reversible, right? I mean, and so bank wires can be recalled, so you can see that as a positive or a negative, depending on your use case.

    Whitney McDonald 12:48:10
    Now, you mentioned already how you’ve seen changing use cases, emerging use cases, who are the early adopters versus who’s using it? Now, I know it’s hard to predict the future, but maybe just give us a little bit of insight into what you pay attention to, in terms of, you know, I guess, predicting or what’s coming next, or staying ahead of what’s in store for digital assets.

    Speaker 1 12:48:38
    I’ll take that in two parts, because digital assets is kind of a broader statement. I think for stable coins, I think we’re going to see continued and accelerated adoption. I think that the passing of the genius act is going to help. You’re going to see a lot of competition in stable coins. There’ll be a lot of new stable coins come to market. Not all of them will be successful. I’ll kind of liken it to the early internet days where, you know, there’ll be 1000s of stable coins come to market, but only. Maybe, you know, handfuls of them will survive and thrive. I think those that find that have good distribution have credibility in the marketplace. Those are the ones that will survive. There’ll be a lot that don’t survive. And so I think we’re going to see where stable coins will become woven into many of the applications that we use on a day to day basis. So going grocery shopping, I’m assuming you’re going to be able to be able to pay with stable coins in the near future, buying online. I think that with stripes, acquisition of bridge, for example, that at checkout online, you’ll have the option to pay in stable coins almost everywhere. Give it a couple of years, and as a merchant selling goods online, you’ll be able to get paid in stable coins almost everywhere. So I think you’ll see that kind of seamless integration across the board. It’ll become a very fluid market, and we’ll see lots and lots more competition in stable coin arena.

    Whitney McDonald 12:50:03
    On the innovation front anything in the pipeline at FB bank that you’re willing to share?

    Speaker 1 12:50:10
    Yes, certainly. So we continue to believe that digital assets convergence with traditional banking is going to be a key driver. I think there’s a lot of interesting developments in our wa real world asset tokenization, especially around financial products. So we are already, we’re already supporting tokenized money market funds. So we’re working with BlackRock and securitize with their Biddle tokenized money market fund. And I see this as a this is going to be a very interesting development in the market where the ability for a an account holder to move in and out of interest bearing products at a tokenized level is going to become a kind of the speed of the Internet. And so the way that treasury management is managed today, where if I want to, if I want to invest in a money market, I’ve got to send a wire to the fund. The funds got to create my position, and that position will start earning me interest. Let’s say the next business day, I’ll start earning interest on that money market position. From a treasury management perspective, with tokenized money market funds, I think that you’ll be able to enter a position into a money market and begin earning interest on the next block confirmation. So as soon as my funds enter the tokenized fund, my my Fiat, let’s say, enters the tokenized fund into it, into a tokenized money market on the next block confirmation. Instead of most money markets, have a cut off of 3pm Eastern, for example, I think that’s going to change. You’ll have 24 by seven entrance and exit of funds, and I think you’ll start realizing interest earned on balances based on the next block confirmation. That will change the way that Treasury works, because it’ll become a much more fluid 24 by seven market. And we’re looking forward to that. We are we are going to be coming out releasing our announcement of support for Biddle, and we’re going to be treating it a lot like we do other stable coins, which is creating an on ramp and off ramp to a tokenized money market fund. You know, I think the big announcement that’s coming for us, and my caveat, is subject to lots of conditions, including regulatory approval, but we are working on secure, collateralized lending, in particular, looking at loan products that are based around things like Bitcoin and Ethereum. We believe that the movement that’s happening, you know, in at the macro level, in government, where you’re looking at the clarity Act, which is likely to or hopefully to become law later this year, with the passing of the genius act, we think more and more companies are going to be investing in digital assets as a hedge to fiat or just purely as an investment vehicle, like they would choose other investments. And I think that you’re going to see increasingly that companies who take positions in Bitcoin are not going to want to sell those positions. They’re going to only want to hold them for the long term. And that that’s going to create probably one of the largest lending markets in the world where people are going to want to borrow against their Bitcoin. And we think that we’re extremely well positioned as a company. We have full banking license. We are we have a digital asset trust division, and, you know, we’re properly licensed to provide lending products. And so we think that this is going to be an unlock like we’ve never seen before, where people start unlocking the equity they have or the upside they have in their Bitcoin, and they’re going to borrow against that, just like they would borrow against a piece of real estate.

    Whitney McDonald 12:53:46
    Real estate for financial institutions that are entering the stable coin market, what takeaways or lessons learned would you share with them?

    Speaker 1 12:53:55
    I would say that you know, one of the most important things, like, if there’s companies that are looking to lean into this, is that supporting stable coins. Can seem quite easy, like a couple lines of code and you can start, you know, potentially supporting this. But the reality is, is it’s a very compliance intensive project. We have, you know, tried and tested and extensive rules around anti money laundering, terrorist financing, etc, in the banking world, there are, they’re just well documented requirements from a regulatory perspective, the requirements that you have as a financial institution to start dealing with digital assets is not insignificant, and so I would say that you know, any financial institution that’s looking to get involved, they should look into it, because we want more and more financial institutions to do what we’re doing, but take a serious look at your compliance obligations and understand. How do you integrate compliance controls of digital asset world to a Fiat world? And that’s one of the areas where we spent a lot of time. And we think that more responsible market entrance is what we need. We don’t need, we don’t need irresponsible entrance into the market. We think stable coins are going to grow, and the numbers are going to amaze people, the volume that gets transacted in stable coins, but I firmly believe that the dollar is still going to rule, and that one of the most important roles that we play is a bridge between Fiat and digital assets in particular with stable coins, because there’s always going to be a need for companies to go back into dollars, especially if you look at stable coins now, it’s, it’s unclear where gap rules are going to go. How do you treat stable coins on your balance sheet? Right? Right? I mean, there’s, you can take a position as to how you should treat them on your balance sheet, but until you have really clear International and GAAP rules around stable coins in your balance sheet, it’s going to continue to be a challenge. So it’s it is as easy as couple lines of code, but it’s also very complex. At the same time,

    Whitney McDonald 12:56:04
    you’ve been listening to the buzz a bank automation news podcast, please follow us on LinkedIn, and as a reminder, you can rate this podcast on your platform of choice. Thank you for your time, and be sure to visit us at Bank automation news.com for more automation news, you.

    Transcribed by https://otter.ai

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    Whitney McDonald

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  • Crypto At Risk — JPMorgan Warns Fed Cut Could Spark Crash

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    JPMorgan’s US trading desk is cautioning clients that a widely expected Federal Reserve rate cut on September 17 could mark a near-term peak for risk assets rather than a new leg higher—an outcome that would not spare crypto.

    In a note flagged by desk head Andrew Tyler, the bank writes: “We have concerns that the September 17 Fed meeting which delivers a 25bp cut could turn into a ‘Sell the News’ event as investors pullback to consider macro data, Fed’s reaction function, potentially stretched positioning, a weaker corporate buyback bid, and waning participation from the Retail investor.”

    The timing matters. The Fed’s next policy meeting runs September 16–17, with a statement and press conference scheduled for Wednesday, September 17. That calendar alone has become a catalyst as traders position around both the size of the cut and the tone of the guidance.

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    Standard Chartered, pointing to a labor market that has cooled far faster than anticipated, now expects the Fed to deliver a 50-basis-point move. “August labor market data has paved the way for a ‘catch-up’ 50 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, similar to what occurred at this time last year,” the bank said, after US nonfarm payrolls rose by just 22,000 in August and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%.

    JPMorgan’s desk is not abandoning its “lower-conviction Tactical Bullish” stance, but it is urging investors to carry insurance into the event. In addition to recommending that equity investors “consider” adding or increasing gold exposure as cut expectations sap the dollar, Tyler’s team spelled out more explicit hedges for a volatility shock: “we like VIX call spreads or VXX longs as a hedge, as well as parts of Defensives.”

    The macro backdrop has indeed turned more complicated. August payrolls barely grew and prior data were revised down, while the unemployment rate rose to a near four-year high, developments that have hardened expectations for policy easing but also raised the specter of a growth scare.

    Meanwhile, gold has been screaming higher—printing successive record highs above $3,600/oz—as investors price both easier policy and broader political-economic risk. Those concurrent signals—weakening labor, stronger bullion—frame why a rate cut may not automatically equal “risk-on” for beta.

    Crypto Faces Volatility Test

    For crypto, the read-through is two-sided and highly path dependent. On one hand, the same jobs-driven repricing that has juiced gold has also supported bitcoin in recent sessions as traders lean into the idea of easier money and a softer dollar—classic tailwinds for risk assets and for store-of-value narratives alike.

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    On the other hand, a mechanical “equities down, vol up” impulse around the decision would likely transmit into crypto assets, where cross-asset de-risking and margin unwinds have historically amplified intraday swings. That tension is visible in current coverage: bitcoin has bounced back toward the $112k area alongside rate-cut bets, yet several market observers warn that a run-of-the-mill 25bp move—especially if framed as a “hawkish cut”—may fail to spark a sustained crypto rally.

    Notably, a “catch-up” 50bp cut, as Standard Chartered projects, would accelerate the compression in real yields and could weaken the dollar at the margin—conditions that have tended to support bitcoin and liquidity-sensitive altcoins when the move is not seen as recessionary triage.

    Conversely, a smaller or caveated cut could deliver precisely the “sell the news” pattern JPMorgan warns about, with equities and high-beta assets like crypto marking lower first before reassessing the glide path. History is no lodestar—post-cut outcomes have ranged from strong rallies in mid-cycle adjustments to drawdowns when cuts presaged recession—but it does argue for elevated realized volatility around the first step.

    At press time, Bitcoin traded at $112,739.

    Bitcoin price
    BTC reclaims the EMA50, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

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    Jake Simmons

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