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Tag: credit

  • Dow Jones ends about 80 points higher as U.S. bond yields keep falling

    Dow Jones ends about 80 points higher as U.S. bond yields keep falling

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    U.S. stocks posted modest gains on Tuesday, resuming a strong rally in November that has been propelled by tumbling U.S. bond yields. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA closed up about 83 points, or 0.2%, ending near 35,416, according to preliminary FactSet data. The S&P 500 index SPX was 0.1% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP closed up 0.3%. Equity investors were emboldened after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Tuesday that a cooling economy could help bring inflation down to the central bank’s 2% yearly target, even though he also said it’s unclear if more interest rate hikes were warranted. The…

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  • The Cost of Doing Business With China? A $40,000 Dinner With Xi Jinping Might Be Just the Start

    The Cost of Doing Business With China? A $40,000 Dinner With Xi Jinping Might Be Just the Start

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    Updated Nov. 28, 2023 12:54 am ET

    Broadcom Chief Executive Hock Tan shelled out $40,000 to sit at Xi Jinping’s table for the Chinese leader’s recent dinner in San Francisco with the heads of American businesses. Tan had a lot more at stake—a $69 billion deal he was waiting on China to approve.

    For months, Chinese regulators wouldn’t clear the U.S. chipmaker’s bid to buy enterprise software developer VMware, leading Broadcom to put off its date for completion of the deal—first announced in May 2022—three times. Beijing had held up previous mergers involving U.S. companies. Intel’s planned acquisition of Israeli firm Tower Semiconductor, for more than $5 billion, was scuttled in August after Chinese regulators failed to approve it.

    Copyright ©2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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  • New-home sales drop in October to much lower level than expected

    New-home sales drop in October to much lower level than expected

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    The numbers: U.S. new-home sales fell 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 in October, from a revised 719,000 in September, the government reported Monday. 

    Analysts polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast new-home sales to occur at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 725,000 in October.

    The data are often revised sharply….

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  • Congress returns to face big to-do list: Israel and Ukraine aid, possible border or tax deals, and more

    Congress returns to face big to-do list: Israel and Ukraine aid, possible border or tax deals, and more

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    Both the House and Senate are due to get back to work this week after their Thanksgiving break, and lawmakers have a lot on their plates.

    A divided Washington put off the threat of a partial government shutdown until mid-January by enacting a short-term spending bill in mid-November, but the measure didn’t address President Joe Biden’s $106 billion funding request that includes wartime aid for Israel and Ukraine.

    So…

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  • Crypto bulls eye $40,000 as bitcoin’s next level as the coin refreshes yearly high

    Crypto bulls eye $40,000 as bitcoin’s next level as the coin refreshes yearly high

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    Crypto bulls are eyeing $40,000 as bitcoin’s next level, with the recent rally sending the crypto to a new high for the year, as the market shakes off the news that Binance’s co-founder Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty on Tuesday to criminal charges related to violating U.S. anti-money-laundering laws, and stepped down as head of the company.

    The largest crypto BTCUSD on Friday rose to as high as $38,294, the loftiest level since May 2022, according to CoinDesk data. It climbed over 3% over the past 24 hours. 

    Bitcoin…

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  • SEC charges crypto platform Kraken with operating as an unregistered exchange

    SEC charges crypto platform Kraken with operating as an unregistered exchange

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    The Securities and Exchange Commission charged cryptocurrency trading platform Kraken with operating as an unregistered securities exchange.

    The charges are the latest effort by regulators to crack down on crypto companies, some of which the SEC views as illegally selling securities without registering with the commission.

    Kraken didn’t immediately…

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  • Early cracks start to show in banks’ commercial loans

    Early cracks start to show in banks’ commercial loans

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    During the third quarter, net charge-offs rose to 0.11% of average loans at the regional and community banks that Stephens Inc. covers, up from 0.04% a year earlier. Those numbers include both consumer and commercial charge-offs.

    Adobe Stock

    Move over, deposit costs. The health of commercial borrowers is now a major source of hand-wringing among bank investors.

    Problems in business loans have risen in recent months as companies that were in a weak financial position have started closing up shop. The environment remains relatively benign, and few analysts expect the credit worsening to get nearly as dire as it did after the 2008 financial crisis.

    But it’s clear that the starting gun has gone off in what analysts call “credit normalization.” Bank loans were unusually healthy during the pandemic, but now more commercial borrowers are running into trouble, and bankers are starting to write off soured loans.

    Some bankers have described the issues as “one-off” problems with specific borrowers, rather than anything indicating broader stresses in their loan portfolios. But investors worry those isolated events will start piling up next year. The difficulty in gauging which banks will face more trouble is prompting many stock buyers to stay away from the sector as a whole.

    “The problem that a lot of these investors are facing right now is that it’s hard to get your arms around credit quality and how the banks are going to perform in a worse credit environment,” said Andrew Terrell, a bank analyst at Stephens.

    During this year’s third quarter, net charge-offs rose to 0.11% of average loans at the regional and community banks that Stephens covers, up from 0.04% a year earlier. Those numbers include both commercial and consumer charge-offs.

    U.S. consumers experienced stress earlier than businesses, as inflation, high interest rates and depleted savings caused some to fall behind on their credit card payments. At many credit card issuers, charge-offs are nearing or have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels. 

    Regional banks have been relatively insulated from consumer pressures since many of them have smaller consumer books. But worries over their commercial real estate portfolios persist, and their non-real-estate loans to commercial borrowers are starting to turn, even if problem loans remain at mild levels.

    One recent corporate bankruptcy caused some tremors. Mountain Express Oil, a Georgia-based company that distributed oil to hundreds of gas stations, had gotten a $218.5 million loan from a group of banks. But the oil distributor filed for liquidation, and the banks involved in the loan now say they’re unlikely to recover any of the money they lent. That’s a tougher pill to swallow than a reorganization bankruptcy, where some recovery is likely.

    The 100% loss rate was unexpected and added to investors’ usual wariness of banks’ participation in syndicated loans, said Chris McGratty, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Unlike loans directly to businesses, syndicated loans leave banks at a distance from the borrower, which means they have less control when things go south. Losses tend to be larger and less predictable.

    In their third-quarter earnings calls, the CEOs of affected banks said the Mountain Express Oil issue was a one-time event. And they expressed confidence in the rest of their syndicated loan exposures.

    Other than that one loan, the balance sheet at First Horizon “continues to perform very well,” CEO Bryan Jordan told analysts last month. The Memphis, Tennessee-based bank led the Mountain Express Oil syndicated loan.

    Concerns over the oil distributor’s bankruptcy were understandably “magnified,” since it followed a long period where investors didn’t have to worry much about the health of bank loans, KBW’s McGratty said.

    “There’s going to be a normalization process — it’s well underway,” he said. “It’s still fairly good, but the trend is moving against us.”

    Nowhere is that trendline clearer than in the trucking sector, which is in dire financial straits after booming during 2020. Consumers spent big on furniture, electronics and appliances as they stayed home during the pandemic. But they rapidly shifted toward travel, entertainment and restaurants as the world reopened, causing a crisis for trucking companies that suddenly had less inventory to ship.

    The trucking giant Yellow Corp. filed for bankruptcy in August, part of a bloodbath that’s taken down decades-old companies.

    A large concentration in trucking loans appears to have been behind the failure of a small community bank in Sac City, Iowa — the fifth bank failure this year. The bank was tiny, with just $66 million of assets, but regulators had previously dinged it for being too exposed to trucking and shut it down because of “significant loan losses.”

    Trucking loans likely make up a far smaller share of total loans at many other banks, which can get in trouble with regulators for being too exposed to any one sector. But any loan losses in one area lower the cushion they’ve built up to absorb troubles elsewhere.

    Other commercial sectors don’t appear to be undergoing that kind of pain, said Stephens’ Terrell. But within various industries, some companies that were already struggling are suffering as high interest rates take a toll.

    “When times are really good, you’ve got air cover to restructure anything you want,” Terrell said. But as the cycle turns, the “weakest operators go first.”

    Bankers say they’re keeping a close eye on their commercial real estate portfolios, particularly office loans. Occupancy rates in office buildings have fallen amid the rise of remote and hybrid work. Banks are stashing away reserves in case those loans go bad and are marking more CRE loans as “nonaccrual” credits, according to the ratings firm Fitch Ratings.

    Any problems will likely “disproportionately weigh on regional banks, which have relatively higher CRE exposure,” Fitch analysts wrote in a note this week.

    “However, banks are generally well positioned to absorb further ‘normalization,’” they wrote.

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  • IMPS glitch: UCO Bank recovers ₹649 crore out of ₹820 crore

    IMPS glitch: UCO Bank recovers ₹649 crore out of ₹820 crore

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    After certain account holders of UCO Bank received a total of around ₹820 crore in “erroneous credits” via the Immediate Payment Service (IMPS), Uco Bank on Thursday said it has blocked the recipients’ accounts and has been able to retain and recover around ₹649 crore, which is about 79 per cent of the total money.

    The Kolkata-based lender observed that certain transactions initiated by account holders of other banks had resulted in credit to its account holders without actual receipt of money from these banks between November 10 and 13.

    ‘Internal tech issue’

    Following the issue, UCO Bank has made the IMPS channel offline as a precautionary measure. The bank has clarified that the incident happened due to an internal technical issue, and there was no issue with the IMPS platform.

    “We further inform that by taking proactive steps, the bank blocked the recipients’ accounts and has been able to retain and recover around ₹649 crore out of ₹820 crore, which is about 79 per cent of the amount,” UCO Bank said in a stock exchange filing on Thursday.

    The bank has initiated the requisite actions to recover the balance of ₹171 crore. The matter has been reported to the law-enforcing agencies for necessary action.

    Recovery

    “A total of ₹820 crore was credited to our account holders, but the amount was not debited in the remitters’ accounts. As the amount was not debited, our bank did not get the money. So, our team was quick enough to swing into action and blocked the recipients’ accounts, and reversed these transactions. As the money did not flow to the bank, our customers were not actually entitled,” UCO Bank managing director and chief executive officer Ashwani Kumar told businessline.

    “Certain customers have used the money also. We have reached out to those customers and told them that the money had been erroneously credited to their accounts. We have urged them to pay back. Yesterday (Wednesday), around ₹9 crore was recovered from these customers,” Kumar said, adding the bank’s team was on the field on Thursday too to contact the customers for recovery.

    He said UCO Bank has reached out to other banks from where the credits originated. “It might be possible that some customers of these banks transferred the same amount of money three-four times, as the money was not debited from their accounts. If a person was to transfer ₹5,000, it might be possible that he tried to pay four-five times, resulting in the recipient getting a total of ₹20,000-25,000. But the recipient is not entitled to use the entire amount. That is why we referred the case to the investigating agencies also,” the MD said.

    He said apparently the matter does not look like a hacking incident, adding, “But you never know what the exact issue was.”

    After the route cause analysis of the incident and rectification, the bank would restore the IMPS services, subject to getting clearances from all agencies. “It might take three to four days or more,” Kumar added.

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  • Markets – MarketWatch

    Markets – MarketWatch

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    Technology-stock gains drive big day, week on Wall Street

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  • How ransomware attack on ICBC rattled the Treasury market and shook up a 30-year bond auction

    How ransomware attack on ICBC rattled the Treasury market and shook up a 30-year bond auction

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    It was a trading day unlike any other for traders in the $25 trillion Treasury market, with a 30-year bond auction seen as having been partially undermined by a cyberattack on the U.S. unit of a Chinese bank.

    In recapping Treasury’s poorly received $24 billion bond auction on Thursday, traders said the weaker-than-expected results likely had at least something to do with this week’s ransomware hit on the American arm of Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, known as ICBC. That attack reportedly caused disruptions across the market and had some impact on liquidity, with the Financial Times citing unnamed sources as saying hedge funds and asset managers were forced to reroute trades.

    Traders were grappling on Friday to answer the question of what created the sudden lack of interest at the auction, which went so badly that it also shook up U.S. stock investors. Thursday’s sale was the worst since November 2021, based on the extent to which primary dealers were forced to step in and pick up the slack in demand, one trader said. And it reinforced a recent pattern of weak auctions for the 30-year bond that may not bode well for future sales of that long-dated maturity.

    It’s possible that bonds simply “look much less attractive” following a recent “explosive rally” since late October, according to Charlie McElligott, a cross-asset macro strategist at Nomura Securities in New York. However, “this might be the case of ‘more than meets the eye’ to this ‘ugly auction evidencing low demand for duration’ story,” he wrote in a note.

    “One dynamic that makes yesterday’s ugly auction results murky was the ICBC cyberattack described across various financial media, which gunked-up anybody who clears UST trades through them, and made it so that many dealers were then likely unable to trade with those clients until resolved, on account of unsettled trades which weren’t able to be matched,” McElligott said.

    Adding to Thursday’s uncertainty was another random event. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell appeared on stage in an International Monetary Fund panel, was interrupted by a climate protester, and then uttered a seven-letter expletive that could be heard on the event’s livestream.

    Powell’s policy-related remarks, which indicated the central bank might take further action to control inflation, “didn’t help things and kind of spooked people again,” said John Farawell, head of municipal trading at New York bond underwriter Roosevelt & Cross.

    Read: Fed’s Powell Made Cryptic Comments. How He’s Guiding the Market.

    On Friday, the Treasury market found stabilization as buyers returned to segments of government debt in a sign that calm was being restored. A rush of buying was seen on the 30-year bond
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y,
    sending its yield down to 4.733% and to a third straight weekly decline.

    Meanwhile, Bloomberg News reported that the repercussions of the ICBC cyberattack included an inability to deliver U.S. debt that was being pledged as collateral. ICBC’s U.S. unit was forced to rely on a messenger carrying a USB stick across Manhattan to complete disrupted trades, according to the news service, which also described Thursday’s $24 billion 30-year bond auction as one of the worst in a decade.

    The ICBC attack “might have had a dramatic impact on the auction. I don’t know how much, but I also can’t imagine it didn’t,” said Tom di Galoma, co-head of global rates trading for BTIG in New York. “When people see that there are trade-settlement issues, there’s a willingness to back off and that’s exactly what happened yesterday. Institutional accounts were saying, ‘We don’t know who is settling this trade.’ If the cyberattack hadn’t happened, I think the auction would have gone a lot better.”

    Ben Emons, a senior portfolio manager and head of fixed income for NewEdge Wealth in New York, said that once the Treasury market got upended by the ICBC cyberattack, the bad auction, and the interruption during Powell’s appearance, liquidity on U.S. government debt “was, for a moment, a dark matter.”

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  • Dow ends nearly 400 points higher as tech rally leads stocks to highest close since September

    Dow ends nearly 400 points higher as tech rally leads stocks to highest close since September

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    U.S. stocks ended sharply higher Friday, more than shaking off weakness seen the previous session in the aftermath of a poor Treasury bond auction and fresh signs that interest rates may stay higher for longer.

    Technology stocks drove the bounce, with the Nasdaq Composite leading major indexes to the upside as it and the S&P 500 logged their highest finishes since September.

    What happened

    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA
      rose 391.16 points, or 1.2%, to close at 34,283.10.

    • The S&P 500
      SPX
      ended with a gain of 67.89 points, or 1.6%, at 4,415.24.

    • The Nasdaq Composite
      COMP
      advanced 276.66 points, or 2%, to finish at 13,798.10.

    The rally left the Dow with a weekly gain of 0.7%, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.3% and the Nasdaq booked a rise of 2.4%. The Dow saw its highest close since Sept. 20, while the S&P 500 ended at its highest since Sept. 19 and the Nasdaq at its highest since Sept. 14.

    Market drivers

    Tech was in the driver’s seat. Shares of Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +2.49%

    jumped 2.5%, with the Dow component scoring its third record close in four sessions. Intel Corp. shares
    INTC,
    +2.80%

    rose 2.8% to lead Dow gainers.

    Meanwhile, the S&P 500 tested important chart resistance at the 4,400 to 4,415 level, which marks the confluence of previous resistance and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July-October drop, according to Matthew Weller, global head of research at Forex.com, in a note (see chart below).


    Forex.com

    “From a bigger picture perspective, bulls will need to see the index conclusively break above 4415 before declaring that the post-July streak of lower lows and lower highs is over,” Weller wrote.

    The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended their longest winning streaks since November 2021 on Thursday, after a poorly-received $24 billion sale of 30-year Treasury bonds.

    A calmer bond market may have helped set the tone for stocks. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
    fell 3.2 basis points to 4.733%, after it nearly notched its biggest one-day jump since June 2022. The yield still saw a weekly decline, its third straight.

    It was unclear whether the Treasury auction had been affected by a reported ransomware attack against the U.S. unit of the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China that apparently disrupted the U.S. Treasury market.

    See: How ransomware attack on ICBC rattled the Treasury market and shook up a 30-year bond auction

    Thursday’s setback was also tied to comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who told an International Monetary Fund panel on Thursday that the central bank was wary of “head fakes” from inflation, and the “2% goal was not assured.”

    Much of Powell’s language was nearly identical to remarks he made on Nov. 1, when investors rallied stocks and bonds after the Fed chair didn’t explicitly commit to a further interest rate hike. But the subsequent rally for stocks after the Nov. 1 Fed meeting, with the S&P 500 jumping more than 6% over eight days, and a 50 basis point drop in the 10-year Treasury yield were “overdone and not governed by facts,” said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note.

    “Meanwhile, if we think about what the Fed said last week, namely that the rise in the 10-year yield was doing the Fed’s work for it and as a result they may not have to hike rates, then the short/sharp decline in the 10-year yield we’ve seen could essentially remove the reason for the Fed not having to hike rates — and that could put a rate hike back on the table!” he wrote. “That’s essentially what Powell reminded us of yesterday and that, along with the poor Treasury auction, pushed yields higher,” setting up pressure on stocks.

    U.S. consumer sentiment fell in November for the fourth month in a row due to worries about higher interest rates as well as war in the Middle East. The preliminary reading of the sentiment survey declined to 60.4 from 63.8 in October, the University of Michigan said Friday. It’s the weakest reading since May.

    Investors were also tuning into more comments by Fed officials Friday, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who said she didn’t know if rates were high enough to bring inflation back down to the central bank’s 2% target.

    Companies in focus

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  • Here’s how to use the new tax-bracket information for 2024 to lower your tax bill

    Here’s how to use the new tax-bracket information for 2024 to lower your tax bill

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    When it comes to managing your taxes, where you fall in one of the seven progressive tax brackets is the key to understanding how much you’re going to end up paying when you file your return.

    The Internal Revenue Service announced new inflation-adjusted brackets for 2024 on tax rates that go from 10% to 37%. The dollar amounts of income separating the bands run from as little as $11,600 to more than $365,000, for those filing single, with similar ratios for those married filing jointly. 

    You can pay no attention to this at all, and just let your tax preparer or software figure out the math for you. Or you can delve into the details and potentially reduce the amount you owe. 

    A progressive tax system means you don’t pay the top rate on your whole income. Instead, you pay the rates for each band in a row as you go up the income ladder. If your taxable income as a single filer is $11,600 in 2024, you’ll pay 10% on the entire amount. Anything above that, and you pay the 10% tax on that first chunk, and then add each additional band on top of it.

    Next year, for instance, if you have taxable income of more than $609,350, that puts you in the 37% bracket. You’ll pay $183,647.25 — the stacked combination of the 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32% and 35% brackets — plus 37% of the excess over $609,350. 

    To figure out where you fall on the spectrum, you just need to estimate your 2024 taxable income or extrapolate from your previous tax returns. You can see the full tax-bracket charts here

    This may seem like just a curiosity for those with straightforward income, but you’ll need to pay close attention if you’re planning any atypical financial moves, such as a retirement, a conversion from a 401(k) to a Roth IRA or the sale of a business or significant piece of property. 

    “Everyone seems to care about tax brackets,” says Sri Reddy, the senior vice president of retirement and income solutions at Principal Financial Group. “But I wouldn’t tell you to worry about it. You should make as much money as you want, because you get to keep some portion of it. I’d just rather have you have an awareness of what it might mean to you.”

    Here’s where tax-bracket management matters most: 

    Retirement savings

    You can know your tax bracket now, but you don’t know what it will be in the future. Your retirement savings are stuck in the middle. 

    Should you pay tax on your retirement savings now and save in a Roth IRA or Roth 401(k), so the growth is tax-free after you’re 59½? Or should you save in tax-deferred accounts and pay tax down the road when you spend the money — or are forced to withdraw it yearly for required minimum distributions? And if you do this, at some point do you want to convert some of those funds to Roth, pay the tax and then let the funds grow tax-free into the future? 

    “If you’re in a high tax bracket now, doing a Roth contribution to your 401(k) makes no fiscal sense,” says Chris Chen, a Boston-based certified financial planner who runs Insight Financial Strategists

    Chen recently advised a couple in their 50s who wanted to shift all of their 401(k) contributions from tax-deferred accounts to Roth to save the hassle of converting the funds later. The challenge is they are currently in the 35% tax bracket, and must also pay Massachusetts’ 5% state income tax. They plan to retire early, at which point they’ll probably drop to the 12% bracket.

    “So putting money in Roth now does not make sense from a tax standpoint,” says Chen. “They got persuaded to continue putting money into a traditional 401(k), and they deferred the Roth idea to later.”

    Roth conversions

    When you do come to the Roth conversion stage, you’ll need to look even closer at your tax bracket so that you can see how much income you can add without pushing into the next level. It’s a particularly steep increase from the 12% bracket to the 22% bracket, and then from the 24% bracket to the 32% bracket. 

    “You have to see at what point is it too painful to pay the tax,” says Ryan Losi, a CPA and executive vice president at PIASCIK, based in Glen Allen, Va. “We don’t want to go up to 32% or 35%, because that’s too big a payment.”

    For example, if your taxable income for 2024 is going to be $80,000 as a married couple, you’d be in the 12% bracket. If you plan to convert $20,000 from your 401(k) or IRA to Roth, that pushes you over the $94,300 limit, and $5,700 would be taxable at 22%, to the tune of $1,254. So perhaps you’d want to only convert $14,000 instead, and by controlling the size of the conversion, you can minimize your tax liability. 

    You can do some of this tax-bracket management on the income side as well, Reddy says. You can employ a bunching strategy, meaning you make all your stock sales that would cause capital gains in one year and avoid transactions the following year. Or you might be due a lump-sum payment for disability or severance or from an annuity, and you can spread it out instead. “This is where awareness is important,” says Reddy. 

    Charitable giving

    Bunching strategies also are helpful with charitable giving. Losi’s high-income clients are big users of donor-advised funds, which are charitable accounts that allow donors to take a deduction the year they deposit the funds and then distribute them later. “Clients will call and ask me, ‘What do I need to contribute this year to get me out of the 37% bracket?’” Losi says. 

    This works with the lower brackets, too, not just among the rich. If you’re in a high-tax state or paying a mortgage, it might benefit you to see where you are in your tax bracket. If you make a charitable donation of even a few hundred dollars, it could make sense for you to itemize instead of taking the standard deduction, and that extra amount could push you into a lower bracket. 

    Business owners and QBI

    Business owners and sole practitioners are the ones who pay the most attention to their tax brackets, Losi says, especially because of the qualified business income deduction that can reduce taxes on business income by up to 20%. The rules are complicated, and it takes a lot to manage not only where you fall in the brackets, but also the phase-outs for specific trades. 

    For these taxpayers, it may make sense to try to get paid less by clients in a certain calendar year, and pay themselves more. 

    “You can invoice, but tell clients to hold off on payment,” Losi says. “You can accelerate deductions. You can deduct 100% of capital spent for automobiles, desks, chairs — everything [a business] needs to run.”

    Losi also encourages business owners to pay themselves a healthy salary, which can reduce business income, and then set up solo qualified plans and cash-balance pension plans to put that money away pretax. “Heck yeah, cash-balance pension plans,” Losi says. “I’m the trustee of ours.”

    More on investment tax strategy:

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  • UBS Issues $3.5B in AT1 Bonds in First Issuance Since Credit Suisse Acquisition

    UBS Issues $3.5B in AT1 Bonds in First Issuance Since Credit Suisse Acquisition

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    By Miriam Mukuru

    UBS Group issues $3.5 billion in Additional Tier 1 bonds in the first issuance since the acquisition of Credit Suisse.

    It is comprised of two tranches of $1.75 billion of 9.25% perpetual notes redeemable at the option of UBS after five years and $1.75 billion of 9.25% perpetual notes redeemable after 10 years.

    “Each issue is a direct, unsecured and subordinated obligation of UBS Group AG,” it said.

    “The notes provide that, following approval of a minimum amount of conversion capital by UBS Group AG’s shareholders, upon occurrence of a trigger event or a viability event, the notes will be converted into UBS Group AG ordinary shares rather than be subject to write-down,” UBS added.

    Write to Miriam Mukuru at miriam.mukuru@wsj.com

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  • A wall of debt rolling over: Here’s what’s scaring Bridgewater’s co-CIO

    A wall of debt rolling over: Here’s what’s scaring Bridgewater’s co-CIO

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    A weak session is setting up for Tuesday, with oil under pressure after unexpectedly downbeat China export data. So the preference is for bonds this morning, as stock futures tilt south.

    Onto our call of the day, which deals with another worry — a wall of government debt that will be with us for decades. It comes from Bridgewater’s highly regraded co-chief investment officer Bob Prince, who was speaking at the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit on Tuesday, hosted by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

    Prince touches on asset liability mismatches, such as what was seen during the banking crisis earlier this year. He explains that one big factor behind a crisis is when a certain economic regime exists for an extended period of time and “people extrapolate that into the future on the basis of leverage and asset liability mismatches. Then you get a shift in that regime.”

    The events of March, which saw the collapse of SVB, Signature Bank and Silvergate, were a perfect example of that, Prince says. Then he turns to what he calls the “broader effects of a transition from 15 years of abundant free money,” that was first used to battle deleveraging pressures in the financial system in 2008 and then the pandemic.

    One long-term effect of that gets particular attention by Prince, who points out how U.S. government Treasury debt to GDP was about 70% in 2008, around where it had been for decades.

    “The after effects of offsetting deleveraging and pandemic, you’ve had a massive wealth shift from the public sector to the private sector and that’s left the government with debt to GDP up from 70% up to 120%. And the particular vulnerability of that is in the debt rollovers and the gross issuance that you’re going to see in the coming decades . You’re stuck with that debt until you pay it off and that means you have to roll it over like anybody else does,” said Prince.

    “Gross debt issuance will be running at 25% for as far as the eye can see, that means every year you’re issuing 25% of GDP in debt. In 1960, the average amount of debt issuance was 12% of GDP,” he said.

    Prince says most people really don’t pay attention to debt rollovers because they just assume those will get done, but notes that when countries have experienced balance of payments crisis in the past, mostly emerging markets, that is because they have been unable to roll over that debt.

    In the U.S. case, it’s crucial to look at who is holding the debt, particularly the 27% held by foreign investors and 18% by central banks. “Foreign investors would normally be a reliable source of investment but it does heighten sensitivity to geopolitical risk, and so geopolitical risk converges with debt rollovers and gross issuance of the Treasury is an issue that you need to pay attention to in the coming years.

    While not an “acute problem,” he says, it’s a lingering one, and when it comes to central banks it’s also unclear whether their holdings also present a “rollover risk.”

    Prince also touches on the fact that that all that “abundant free money” has fueled a private-equity boom, but with interest rates now at 8% instead of 2% or 3%, “the pace and transaction cycle is bound to slow,” and they are starting to see that.

    “When we talk to institutional investors around the world, many of them are experiencing liquidity issues right now and the liquidity issues result from the fact so much money was allocated to private assets and the transaction cycle is slowing,” he said.

    MarketWatch 50: Forget U.S. stocks for now. Invest here instead, says Bridgewater’s co–investment chief

    A team of analysts at Citigroup led by Nathan Sheets have also weighed in on government debt, telling clients in a new note that “it’s unwise for policy makers to experiment or test” where the threshold for too much debt lies. Here’s their chart showing the bleak trajectory:

    Dirk Willer, head of global asset allocation at Citigroup, said a debt crisis scenario in the U.S. would likely mean a selloff of risk assets globally. He notes that bonds in rival countries may not be the best bet as they don’t always benefit. And both gold and bitcoin underperformed during the U.K. gilt crisis, so those may be out.

    Also in attendance at the conference in Hong Kong, Deutsche Bank’s CEO is worried geopolitics could create another market event and Citadel’s Ken Griffin said investors should put money in China.

    Read: ‘Stock-market correction is over’ after broad surge amid ‘epic’ market rallies

    The markets

    Stock futures
    ES00,
    -0.02%

    NQ00,
    +0.31%

    are pointing to a weak to flat session ahead, while the 10-year Treasury yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    eases back. U.S. crude
    CL.1,
    -2.20%

    is under $80 a barrel after worse-than-forecast China exports signaled more economic bumps in the global growth engine. The dollar
    DXY
    is up.

    The buzz

    Planet Fitness stock
    PLNT,
    -0.27%

    is surging on upbeat results and an improved growth outlook. Uber
    UBER,
    +0.82%

    is up as earnings beat forecasts, but revenue fell short. D.R. Horton
    DHI,
    -0.96%

    stock is also getting a boost from results. EBay
    EBAY,
    -0.44%
    ,
    Occidental Petroleum
    OXY,
    -2.00%
    ,
    Akamai Tech
    AKAM,
    -0.06%

    and Gilead Sciences
    GILD,
    -0.55%

    after the close.

    Reporting late Thursday, Tripadvisor
    TRIP,
    +2.29%

    delivered blowout results and the stock is surging, while Sanmina
    SANM,
    -1.03%

    is down 14% after the manufacturing services provider’s disappointing results.

    UBS
    UBS,
    -0.49%

    UBSG,
    +2.79%

    swung to a $785 million quarterly loss on lingering effects of its Credit Suisse takeover, but it pulled in $33 billion in new deposits and shares are up.

    After a decade of turmoil, office-sharing group WeWork
    WE,
    -24.73%

    filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Monday. 

    The U.S. trade deficit climbed 5% in September to $61.5 billion as imports rebounded. Still to come is consumer credit at 3 p.m. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr speaks at 9:15 a.m., followed by Fed Gov. Christopher Waller at 10 a.m.

    The International Monetary Fund boosted its China outlook for 2023 and 2024.

    Best of the web

    Big banks are cooking up new ways to offload risk.

    Retirees continue to flock to places where climate risk is high.

    How to know when it’s time to retire

    The chart

    According to this recent JPMorgan survey, two-thirds of investors are ready to start pumping more money into equities, while just 19% plan to increase bond exposure. Also, note that 67% also said they did not expect performance of the Magnificent 7 stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla and Meta — to “crack before the end of the year.”

    Top tickers

    These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.:

    TSLA,
    -0.31%
    Tesla

    AMC,
    +2.15%
    AMC Entertainment

    NVDA,
    +1.66%
    Nvidia

    AAPL,
    +1.46%
    Apple

    NIO,
    -3.16%
    NIO

    GME,
    -2.45%
    GameStop

    AMZN,
    +0.82%
    Amazon.com

    PLTR,
    -1.85%
    Palantir Technologies

    MULN,
    +3.88%
    Mullen Automotive

    MSFT,
    +1.06%
    Microsoft

    NVDA,
    +1.66%
    Nvidia

    Random reads

    Fifteen people ended up with eye pain and sight issues after a Bored Ape NFT event.

    A death metal band asked for singers on social media. A choir responded.

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  • Here’s why you might not have to pay a 6% commission next time you sell a home

    Here’s why you might not have to pay a 6% commission next time you sell a home

    [ad_1]

    Going back decades, if you wanted to buy or sell a stock on the open market, you had to pay a 2% commission to buy and a 2% commission to sell. Then the advent of discount brokerage, led by Charles Schwab Corp.
    SCHW,
    +1.64%
    ,
    made lower commissions available until eventually, with improved technology and efficiency, the entire industry changed to enable the average investor to avoid commissions completely.

    But the internet hasn’t done much to reduce the cost of selling a home in the U.S. Sellers typically pay a 6% commission to a real-estate agent to list and sell a home, with the seller’s agent splitting that commission with the buyer’s agent. But all of that may change because of a verdict this week in a class-action lawsuit in federal court against the National Association of Realtors.

    Aarthi Swaminathan covers the case, what may happen next and the implications for home sellers and buyers:

    Real-estate advice from the Moneyist


    MarketWatch illustration

    Quentin Fottrell — the Moneyist — works with three readers to answer tricky real-estate questions:

    Economic outlook

    On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may have bolstered the case that the central bank is finished raising interest rates for this economic cycle. The federal-funds rate was left in its target range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

    Jon Gray, the president of Blackstone Group, spoke with MarketWatch Editor in Chief Mark DeCambre and said he expected the Fed to succeed in bringing down inflation without pushing the U.S. economy into a deep recession.

    Friday employment numbers: Jobs report shows 150,000 new jobs in October as U.S. labor market cools

    Bond-market trend switches again

    The U.S. Treasury yield curve has been inverted for nearly a year.


    FactSet

    Normally, longer-term bonds have higher yields than those with short maturities. But the yield curve has been inverted for nearly a year, with 3-month U.S. Treasury bills
    BX:TMUBMUSD03M
    having higher yields than 10-year Treasury notes
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y.

    There has been elevated demand for long-term bonds, as investors have anticipated a recession and a reversal in Federal Reserve interest-rate policy. When interest rates decline, bond prices rise and vice versa.

    As you can see on the chart above, the yield curve was narrowing until mid-October. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes were close to 5% on Oct. 19, but they have been falling the past several days as the three-month yield has remained close to 5.5%.

    In this week’s ETF Wrap, Christine Idzelis reports on where all the money is flowing in the bond market.

    In the Bond Report, Vivien Lou Chen summarizes the action as investors react to the Federal Reserve’s decision not to change its federal-funds-rate target range this week and to other economic news.

    For income-seekers looking to avoid income taxes, here’s a deep dive into municipal bonds, with taxable-equivalent yields and a deeper look at those within four high-tax states.

    Ford’s good news — in the bond market

    Ford Motor Co.’s debt rating has been lifted by S&P to investment-grade.


    Getty Images

    Ford Motor Co.’s
    F,
    +4.14%

    credit rating was upgraded to an investment-grade rating by Standard & Poor’s on Monday. This takes about $67 billion in bonds out of the high-yield, or “junk,” market, as Ciara Linnane reports.

    A stock-market warning based on history

    The original Magnificent Seven.


    Courtesy Everett Collection

    By now you have probably heard the term “Magnificent Seven” used to describe stocks of the tremendous tech-oriented companies that have led this year’s rally for the S&P 500
    SPX
    : Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    -0.52%
    ,
    Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +1.29%
    ,
    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +0.38%
    ,
    Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +3.45%
    ,
    Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL,
    +1.26%

    GOOG,
    +1.39%
    ,
    Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    +1.20%

    and Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    +0.66%
    .
    With Tesla’s recent decline, that company is now the ninth-largest holding in the portfolio of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
    SPY,
    which tracks the benchmark index. Here are the top 10 companies held by SPY (11 stocks, including two common-share classes for Alphabet), with total returns through Thursday:

    Company

    Ticker

    % of SPY portfolio

    2023 total return

    2022 total return

    Total return since end of 2021

    Apple Inc.

    AAPL,
    -0.52%
    7.2%

    37%

    -26%

    1%

    Microsoft Corp.

    MSFT,
    +1.29%
    7.1%

    46%

    -28%

    5%

    Amazon.com Inc.

    AMZN,
    +0.38%
    3.5%

    64%

    -50%

    -17%

    Nvidia Corp.

    NVDA,
    +3.45%
    3.0%

    198%

    -50%

    48%

    Alphabet Inc. Class A

    GOOGL,
    +1.26%
    2.1%

    44%

    -39%

    -12%

    Meta Platforms Inc. Class A

    META,
    +1.20%
    1.9%

    158%

    -64%

    -8%

    Alphabet Inc. Class C

    GOOG,
    +1.39%
    1.8%

    45%

    -39%

    -11%

    Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B

    BRK.B,
    +0.80%
    1.8%

    13%

    3%

    17%

    Tesla Inc.

    TSLA,
    +0.66%
    1.7%

    77%

    -65%

    -38%

    UnitedHealth Group Inc.

    UNH,
    -0.98%
    1.4%

    2%

    7%

    9%

    Eli Lilly and Company

    LLY,
    -2.15%
    1.3%

    60%

    34%

    115%

    Sources: FactSet, State Street (for SPY holdings)

    Five of these stocks (including the two Alphabet share classes) are still down from the end of 2021. SPY itself has returned 14% this year, following an 18% decline in 2022. It is still down 7% from the end of 2021.

    Mark Hulbert makes the case that a decade from now, the Magnificent Seven are unlikely to be among the largest companies in the stock market.

    More from Hulbert: These dividend stocks and ETFs have healthy yields that can lift your portfolio

    A different market opportunity: India is seeing a multidecade growth surge. Here’s how you can invest in it.

    The MarketWatch 50


    MarketWatch

    The MarketWatch 50 series is back, with articles and video interviews starting this week, including:

    PayPal soars after earnings report

    PayPal CEO Alex Chriss.


    MarketWatch/PayPal

    After the market close on Wednesday, PayPal Holdings Inc.
    PYPL,
    +1.89%

    announced quarterly results that came in ahead of analysts’ expectations, and the stock soared 7% on Thursday even though the company lowered its target for improving its operating margin.

    In the Ratings Game column, Emily Bary reports on the positive reaction to PayPal’s new CEO, Alex Chriss.

    A less enthusiastic earnings reaction: EV-products maker BorgWarner’s stock suffers biggest drop in 15 years after downbeat sales outlook

    Consumers drive mixed reactions to earnings results

    Apple Inc. reported mixed quarterly results.


    Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Here’s more of the latest corporate financial results and reactions. First the good news:

    And now the news that may not be so good:

    Harsh verdict for SBF

    FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried.


    AP

    It might seem that some legal battles never end, but it took only a year from the collapse of FTX for the cryptocurrency exchange’s founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, to be convicted on all seven federal fraud and money-laundering charges brought against him. The charges were connected to the disappearance of $8 billion from FTX customer accounts.

    Here’s more reaction and coverage of the virtual-currency industry:

    Want more from MarketWatch? Sign up for this and other newsletters to get the latest news and advice on personal finance and investing.

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  • Goldman Sachs leads gainers among the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average; Bank of America up handily

    Goldman Sachs leads gainers among the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average; Bank of America up handily

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    Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s stock
    GS,
    +4.42%

    is the biggest gainer among the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.66%

    at midday Friday with a rise of 4%. The stock has risen 12.6% so far this week. It’s also on pace for largest percent increase since November 10, 2022, when it rose 4.51%, according Dow Jones Market Data. Meanwhile, Bank of America Corp.’s stock
    BAC,
    +2.90%

    was up about 3% and is on track for a 13% gain this week, which would be its best since it rose by 16.5% in the week ending June 5, 2020.

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  • You can save up to $23,000 in your 401(k) next year, IRS says

    You can save up to $23,000 in your 401(k) next year, IRS says

    [ad_1]

    Retirement savers can tuck away slightly more in 2024 than in 2023, but this year’s contribution increases are more modest than last year’s, according to new inflation-related adjustments released by the IRS.

    People who are building up their 401(k) accounts will be able to contribute a maximum of $23,000, a more than 2% increase from the $22,500 maximum for 2023.

    IRA contribution limits will climb to $7,000 for 2024, a 7.6% increase over the $6,500 limit in 2023.

    When the IRS announced its adjustments for 2023, 401(k) savers got a big increase of nearly 10% year over year, and the IRA contribution limit went up more than 8%.

    The 2024 adjustments reflect an economy where inflation rates, although cooling, are still warm.

    For 2024, the catch-up amount for workers 50 and older is holding at a maximum of $1,000 on IRA contributions and of $7,500 for people with 401(k)s and other defined-contribution plans, the IRS said.

    The IRS numbers set a limit on how much people can set aside each year in 401(k) accounts, but data suggest many people fall far short of those maximums.

    In 2022, people with retirement accounts through Vanguard had an average account balance of $112,572. The median account balance was $27,376, the wealth-management giant reported.

    The new retirement-account contribution limits are part of the tax code’s yearly changes to account for inflation.

    Taxpayers are still awaiting the IRS adjustments for tax brackets, standard-deduction amounts and other provisions for tax year 2024.

    The tax agency adjusted the ranges on income-tax brackets last year by 7%.

    Roth IRA rules and the Saver’s Credit

    The numbers on 401(K) and IRA contributions were just one part of the IRS announcement Wednesday.

    The tax agency also lifted the income thresholds for people making Roth IRA contributions. Roth IRAs are funded with after-tax dollars, so they aren’t taxed when account holders pull out the money.

    Read also: If saving $23,000 in your 401(k) next year isn’t enough, you can double that (or more) with the right strategy — and it’s legal

    But Roth IRA contributions hinge on household income. In 2024, individuals and people filing as head of household who make between $146,00 and $161,000 must limit their Roth IRA contributions. People with incomes above $161,000 won’t be able to contribute to a Roth IRA.

    That’s up from a 2023 phase-out range of $138,000 to $153,000.

    For married couples filing jointly, the phase-out range climbs to $230,000 – $240,000. That’s an increase from this year’s range of $218,000 to $228,000.

    Other retirement tax rules are also slated for 2024 updates.

    For example, there’s the “saver’s credit” which is designed to help low- and moderate-income households that are finding a way to put aside money for retirement. It pays up to $1,000 for individuals and up to $2,000 for married couples. The amount depends on income and contribution amounts.

    For 2024, married couples saving for retirement are eligible for the credit if their income stays under $76,500, up from $73,000. The income maximum is $38,250 for individuals, up from $36,500.

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  • Prosecutors hammer at Sam Bankman-Fried’s credibility in FTX criminal fraud trial

    Prosecutors hammer at Sam Bankman-Fried’s credibility in FTX criminal fraud trial

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    Federal prosecutors on Monday sought to chip away at FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s credibility, pointing to discrepancies between his public comments and actions taken behind the scenes as the company collapsed.

    In a steady drumbeat of questions, Assistant U.S. Attorney Danielle Sassoon tried to paint Bankman-Fried, the 31-year-old former wunderkind of the crypto world, as someone who lied to his customers about the safety of their investments, while secretly raiding their accounts to fund his own risky investments, luxury real estate purchases, costly celebrity endorsements and political contributions.   

    In his second day of testimony before a jury in his criminal fraud trial in Manhattan’s federal court, Bankman-Fried repeatedly said he couldn’t remember exactly what he had said in numerous media interviews in the days and weeks after FTX had declared bankruptcy and $8 billion in customer deposits had vanished. 

    He also sought to distance himself from decision-making at FTX’s sister investment firm, Alameda Research, whose risky bets helped bring the crypto trading platform down. 

    Sassoon pointed to multiple public comments by Bankman-Fried in which he claimed FTX’s risk management protocols made it safer than other crypto currency trading platforms, while the company allowed its own investment arm, Alameda Research to make risky bets without limit. 

    FTX ultimately collapsed largely as a result of the billions in loans it had extended to Alameda, which prosecutors allege was done using customer money.

    Federal prosecutors have alleged that Alameda was effectively granted carte blanche to use FTX customer money to make risky bets. One key element was that certain risk-management systems that FTX used to to liquidate customer accounts that had entered into negative territory were disabled for Alameda, allowing it unfettered ability to make high-risk moves.

    Throughout his testimony, Bankman-Fried claimed he had limited visibility as to what was happening at Alameda, which he founded and mostly owned, but which had ceased running day-to-day in 2021, when his ex-girlfriend Caroline Ellison took over as CEO. 

    He said he only became aware of how bad a liquidity issue Alameda faced well after a financial crisis began sweeping through the crypto industry in the summer of 2022.  Bankman-Fried said he had told Ellison, who had pleaded guilty and testified against him, that she should have taken hedge positions earlier to lessen the company’s risk.

    But he said he continued to believe up until just days before the companies collapsed, that both Alameda and FTX were on firmer financial footing.

    “I viewed Alameda as solvent and FTX as solvent and decently liquid,” he testified. “Had that analysis come up any other way, I would have been in full on crisis mode. But in my view at the time that wasn’t the case.”

    Bankman-Fried did admit that he consulted frequently with Ellison about moves that Alameda made and even signed off on several billion-dollar investments. 

    “I think a few billion of them were my decision,” he said when asked about several large investments made by Alameda in 2021 and 2022. 

    Bankman-Fried is expected back in court for further cross examination on Tuesday. The judge in the case said he expected the case may go to the jury as early as Friday. 

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  • HSBC Holdings 3Q Net $5.62B Vs. Net $2.00B >0005.HK

    HSBC Holdings 3Q Net $5.62B Vs. Net $2.00B >0005.HK

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    By Sherry Qin

    HSBC Holdings PLC’s third-quarter net profit more than doubled as the London-based banking giant continued to benefit from higher interest rates and sharply higher non-interest income.

    The Asia-focused lender posted net profit of $5.62 billion for the three months to Sept. 30, up from $2.00 billion in the year-earlier period, it said Monday. HSBC’s pretax profit, the bank’s preferred profit measure, rose to $7.71 billion from $3.23 billion.

    The bank’s quarterly revenue rose 40% compared with the same period a year earlier to $16.2 billion. It attributed the growth to the higher interest rate environment, which supported growth in net interest income in all of their global businesses and higher non-interest income.

    Its non-interest income rose 97% on year to $6.9 billion, primarily due to the sale of its retail banking operations in France.

    The bank’s net interest income, its main source of income, reached $9.25 billion, from $8.01 billion in the same period last year. Its net interest margin increased by 19 basis points to 1.70% from the year-earlier period.

    “We have had three consecutive quarters of strong financial performance and are on track to achieve our mid-teens return on tangible equity target for 2023,” HSBC Chief Executive Noel Quinn said.

    HSBC reiterated its guidance for 2023 net interest income to be above $35 billion, it said.

    The board has approved a third interim dividend of $0.10 per share. It also intends to initiate a further share buyback of up to $3 billion after announcing three share buybacks in 2023 totaling up to $7 billion.

    Write to Sherry Qin at sherry.qin@wsj.com

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