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  • A Fed rate-hike cycle never hit stocks this hard before. Here’s what’s different this time.

    A Fed rate-hike cycle never hit stocks this hard before. Here’s what’s different this time.

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    Anyone watching the market knows stocks have been hammered since the Federal Reserve began in March what has turned into an aggressive series of interest rate hikes, but strategists at Deutsche Bank say they might be surprised to learn that those rate hikes probably aren’t the culprit.

    The S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.16%

    has seen a return of negative 16.1%, at its current level, since the rate increases began. That’s the worst performance for an extended cycle of rate hikes since at least the late 1950s, according to a team led by Chief Strategist Binky Chadha in a Monday note (see chart below).


    Deutsche Bank

    The chart highlights what may be a surprise to many investors: rate hike cycles, historically, haven’t been a negative for stocks. Of the 11 previous hiking cycles dating back to 1958-59, only two (1994-95 and 1973), produced negative returns. On average, rate-hike cycles have produced a 9% return for the S&P 500.

    Any misconception that rate-hike cycles have tended to be negative for stocks was probably reinforced by the market’s ugly 2022 performance, but a closer look at the tape shows why that conclusion doesn’t hold up, Chadha and his team wrote:

    In contrast to most historical rate hiking cycles, which saw a positive correlation between Fed rates and equities (median +61%; 8 of 10 positive), this cycle has seen it run strongly negative (-68%). This negative correlation naturally suggests higher rates lowered equities, reinforcing the widely held belief. A closer look though reveals that the S&P 500 has been at current levels 4 times over the last 5 months, while rates have been successively and notably higher each time, with the 2y yield up 175bps (basis points) from the first time. This contradicts the view that higher rates drove the S&P 500 selloff, or at least show that the last 175bps higher in rates have not lowered the S&P 500.

    So if sharp interest rate rises aren’t the driver, what is behind the selloff?

    The Deutsche Bank analysts suspect it’s more about volatility in the bond market, which has seen a sustained rise since the Fed began raising rates. That’s unusual, they said, with rates volatility typically spiking in the run-up to and around the initial Fed hike and around changes in the speed of hikes during the cycle, then quickly dissipating.

    Treasury-yield volatility, as measured by the ICE BofA MOVE Index, hasn’t tended to rise in a sustained manner during rate-hike cycles, they wrote, with the one exception being the 1973 hiking cycle, which was the only one that also saw a significant stock-market selloff.

    Indeed, when rates and rate volatility have diverged in the current cycle, the stock market has inversely tracked the move in volatility rather than the level of yields, the analysts noted. For examples, they pointed to June, when volatility rose and equities fell sharply while yields rose modestly; August, when yield volatility fell even as yields rose; and the recent stretch, which has seen equities rally alongside a decline in yield volatility while yields have been rangebound (see chart below).


    Deutsche Bank

    “The selloff in equities during this rate hiking cycle has been driven, in our reading more by rising rates vol than it has by the higher level of rates, in what is a strong parallel with the only other rate hiking cycle (1973) that previously saw equities fall significantly,” the strategists wrote. “Vol” is market shorthand for volatility.

    So the key question for investors is whether yield volatility will fall. Chadha and his team think it probably will, for two reasons: a slower and more “deliberate” speed of Fed hikes ahead; and the fact that rates have already seen a significant rise, pushing them closer to where they will peak, even if they will get there only gradually.

    Volatility across asset classes tends to be highly correlated, they said, and paced by a common driver, which in this case has been the result of frequent changes in Fed guidance and the speed of rate hikes.

    That means a decline in yield volatility should see a decline in stock-market volatility, with systematic strategists set to raise equity exposure from extremely low levels and indicating the market rally has further to go, they said.

    Stocks were slightly lower in lackluster trade Tuesday, with the S&P 500 down 0.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.01%

    was off around 25 points, or 0.1%.

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  • 20 dividend stocks with high yields that have become more attractive right now

    20 dividend stocks with high yields that have become more attractive right now

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    Income-seeking investors are looking at an opportunity to scoop up shares of real estate investment trusts. Stocks in that asset class have become more attractive as prices have fallen and cash flow is improving.

    Below is a broad screen of REITs that have high dividend yields and are also expected to generate enough excess cash in 2023 to enable increases in dividend payouts.

    REIT prices may turn a corner in 2023

    REITs distribute most of their income to shareholders to maintain their tax-advantaged status. But the group is cyclical, with pressure on share prices when interest rates rise, as they have this year at an unprecedented scale. A slowing growth rate for the group may have also placed a drag on the stocks.

    And now, with talk that the Federal Reserve may begin to temper its cycle of interest-rate increases, we may be nearing the time when REIT prices rise in anticipation of an eventual decline in interest rates. The market always looks ahead, which means long-term investors who have been waiting on the sidelines to buy higher-yielding income-oriented investments may have to make a move soon.

    During an interview on Nov 28, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, discussed the central bank’s cycle of interest-rate increases meant to reduce inflation.

    When asked about the potential timing of the Fed’s “terminal rate” (the peak federal funds rate for this cycle), Bullard said: “Generally speaking, I have advocated that sooner is better, that you do want to get to the right level of the policy rate for the current data and the current situation.”

    Fed’s Bullard says in MarketWatch interview that markets are underpricing the chance of still-higher rates

    In August we published this guide to investing in REITs for income. Since the data for that article was pulled on Aug. 24, the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.29%

    has declined 4% (despite a 10% rally from its 2022 closing low on Oct. 12), but the benchmark index’s real estate sector has declined 13%.

    REITs can be placed broadly into two categories. Mortgage REITs lend money to commercial or residential borrowers and/or invest in mortgage-backed securities, while equity REITs own property and lease it out.

    The pressure on share prices can be greater for mortgage REITs, because the mortgage-lending business slows as interest rates rise. In this article we are focusing on equity REITs.

    Industry numbers

    The National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (Nareit) reported that third-quarter funds from operations (FFO) for U.S.-listed equity REITs were up 14% from a year earlier. To put that number in context, the year-over-year growth rate of quarterly FFO has been slowing — it was 35% a year ago. And the third-quarter FFO increase compares to a 23% increase in earnings per share for the S&P 500 from a year earlier, according to FactSet.

    The NAREIT report breaks out numbers for 12 categories of equity REITs, and there is great variance in the growth numbers, as you can see here.

    FFO is a non-GAAP measure that is commonly used to gauge REITs’ capacity for paying dividends. It adds amortization and depreciation (noncash items) back to earnings, while excluding gains on the sale of property. Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) goes further, netting out expected capital expenditures to maintain the quality of property investments.

    The slowing FFO growth numbers point to the importance of looking at REITs individually, to see if expected cash flow is sufficient to cover dividend payments.

    Screen of high-yielding equity REITs

    For 2022 through Nov. 28, the S&P 500 has declined 17%, while the real estate sector has fallen 27%, excluding dividends.

    Over the very long term, through interest-rate cycles and the liquidity-driven bull market that ended this year, equity REITs have fared well, with an average annual return of 9.3% for 20 years, compared to an average return of 9.6% for the S&P 500, both with dividends reinvested, according to FactSet.

    This performance might surprise some investors, when considering the REITs’ income focus and the S&P 500’s heavy weighting for rapidly growing technology companies.

    For a broad screen of equity REITs, we began with the Russell 3000 Index
    RUA,
    -0.04%
    ,
    which represents 98% of U.S. companies by market capitalization.

    We then narrowed the list to 119 equity REITs that are followed by at least five analysts covered by FactSet for which AFFO estimates are available.

    If we divide the expected 2023 AFFO by the current share price, we have an estimated AFFO yield, which can be compared with the current dividend yield to see if there is expected “headroom” for dividend increases.

    For example, if we look at Vornado Realty Trust
    VNO,
    +1.03%
    ,
    the current dividend yield is 8.56%. Based on the consensus 2023 AFFO estimate among analysts polled by FactSet, the expected AFFO yield is only 7.25%. This doesn’t mean that Vornado will cut its dividend and it doesn’t even mean the company won’t raise its payout next year. But it might make it less likely to do so.

    Among the 119 equity REITs, 104 have expected 2023 AFFO headroom of at least 1.00%.

    Here are the 20 equity REITs from our screen with the highest current dividend yields that have at least 1% expected AFFO headroom:

    Company

    Ticker

    Dividend yield

    Estimated 2023 AFFO yield

    Estimated “headroom”

    Market cap. ($mil)

    Main concentration

    Brandywine Realty Trust

    BDN,
    +2.12%
    11.52%

    12.82%

    1.30%

    $1,132

    Offices

    Sabra Health Care REIT Inc.

    SBRA,
    +2.41%
    9.70%

    12.04%

    2.34%

    $2,857

    Health care

    Medical Properties Trust Inc.

    MPW,
    +2.53%
    9.18%

    11.46%

    2.29%

    $7,559

    Health care

    SL Green Realty Corp.

    SLG,
    +2.25%
    9.16%

    10.43%

    1.28%

    $2,619

    Offices

    Hudson Pacific Properties Inc.

    HPP,
    +1.41%
    9.12%

    12.69%

    3.57%

    $1,546

    Offices

    Omega Healthcare Investors Inc.

    OHI,
    +1.23%
    9.05%

    10.13%

    1.08%

    $6,936

    Health care

    Global Medical REIT Inc.

    GMRE,
    +2.55%
    8.75%

    10.59%

    1.84%

    $629

    Health care

    Uniti Group Inc.

    UNIT,
    +0.55%
    8.30%

    25.00%

    16.70%

    $1,715

    Communications infrastructure

    EPR Properties

    EPR,
    +0.86%
    8.19%

    12.24%

    4.05%

    $3,023

    Leisure properties

    CTO Realty Growth Inc.

    CTO,
    +2.22%
    7.51%

    9.34%

    1.83%

    $381

    Retail

    Highwoods Properties Inc.

    HIW,
    +0.99%
    6.95%

    8.82%

    1.86%

    $3,025

    Offices

    National Health Investors Inc.

    NHI,
    +2.59%
    6.75%

    8.32%

    1.57%

    $2,313

    Senior housing

    Douglas Emmett Inc.

    DEI,
    +0.87%
    6.74%

    10.30%

    3.55%

    $2,920

    Offices

    Outfront Media Inc.

    OUT,
    +0.89%
    6.68%

    11.74%

    5.06%

    $2,950

    Billboards

    Spirit Realty Capital Inc.

    SRC,
    +1.15%
    6.62%

    9.07%

    2.45%

    $5,595

    Retail

    Broadstone Net Lease Inc.

    BNL,
    -0.30%
    6.61%

    8.70%

    2.08%

    $2,879

    Industial

    Armada Hoffler Properties Inc.

    AHH,
    +0.00%
    6.38%

    7.78%

    1.41%

    $807

    Offices

    Innovative Industrial Properties Inc.

    IIPR,
    +1.42%
    6.24%

    7.53%

    1.29%

    $3,226

    Health care

    Simon Property Group Inc.

    SPG,
    +1.03%
    6.22%

    9.55%

    3.33%

    $37,847

    Retail

    LTC Properties Inc.

    LTC,
    +1.42%
    5.99%

    7.60%

    1.60%

    $1,541

    Senior housing

    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more about each company. You should read Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    The list includes each REIT’s main property investment type. However, many REITs are highly diversified. The simplified categories on the table may not cover all of their investment properties.

    Knowing what a REIT invests in is part of the research you should do on your own before buying any individual stock. For arbitrary examples, some investors may wish to steer clear of exposure to certain areas of retail or hotels, or they may favor health-care properties.

    Largest REITs

    Several of the REITs that passed the screen have relatively small market capitalizations. You might be curious to see how the most widely held REITs fared in the screen. So here’s another list of the 20 largest U.S. REITs among the 119 that passed the first cut, sorted by market cap as of Nov. 28:

    Company

    Ticker

    Dividend yield

    Estimated 2023 AFFO yield

    Estimated “headroom”

    Market cap. ($mil)

    Main concentration

    Prologis Inc.

    PLD,
    +1.63%
    2.84%

    4.36%

    1.52%

    $102,886

    Warehouses and logistics

    American Tower Corp.

    AMT,
    +0.75%
    2.66%

    4.82%

    2.16%

    $99,593

    Communications infrastructure

    Equinix Inc.

    EQIX,
    +0.80%
    1.87%

    4.79%

    2.91%

    $61,317

    Data centers

    Crown Castle Inc.

    CCI,
    +0.93%
    4.55%

    5.42%

    0.86%

    $59,553

    Wireless Infrastructure

    Public Storage

    PSA,
    +0.19%
    2.77%

    5.35%

    2.57%

    $50,680

    Self-storage

    Realty Income Corp.

    O,
    +0.72%
    4.82%

    6.46%

    1.64%

    $38,720

    Retail

    Simon Property Group Inc.

    SPG,
    +1.03%
    6.22%

    9.55%

    3.33%

    $37,847

    Retail

    VICI Properties Inc.

    VICI,
    +0.81%
    4.69%

    6.21%

    1.52%

    $32,013

    Leisure properties

    SBA Communications Corp. Class A

    SBAC,
    +0.27%
    0.97%

    4.33%

    3.36%

    $31,662

    Communications infrastructure

    Welltower Inc.

    WELL,
    +3.06%
    3.66%

    4.76%

    1.10%

    $31,489

    Health care

    Digital Realty Trust Inc.

    DLR,
    +0.63%
    4.54%

    6.18%

    1.64%

    $30,903

    Data centers

    Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.

    ARE,
    +1.49%
    3.17%

    4.87%

    1.70%

    $24,451

    Offices

    AvalonBay Communities Inc.

    AVB,
    +0.98%
    3.78%

    5.69%

    1.90%

    $23,513

    Multifamily residential

    Equity Residential

    EQR,
    +1.46%
    4.02%

    5.36%

    1.34%

    $23,503

    Multifamily residential

    Extra Space Storage Inc.

    EXR,
    +0.31%
    3.93%

    5.83%

    1.90%

    $20,430

    Self-storage

    Invitation Homes Inc.

    INVH,
    +2.15%
    2.84%

    5.12%

    2.28%

    $18,948

    Single-family residental

    Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc.

    MAA,
    +1.83%
    3.16%

    5.18%

    2.02%

    $18,260

    Multifamily residential

    Ventas Inc.

    VTR,
    +2.22%
    4.07%

    5.95%

    1.88%

    $17,660

    Senior housing

    Sun Communities Inc.

    SUI,
    +2.12%
    2.51%

    4.81%

    2.30%

    $17,346

    Multifamily residential

    Source: FactSet

    Simon Property Group Inc.
    SPG,
    +1.03%

    is the only REIT to make both lists.

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  • Crypto lender BlockFi is suing Sam Bankman-Fried over his shares in Robinhood: report

    Crypto lender BlockFi is suing Sam Bankman-Fried over his shares in Robinhood: report

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    Just hours after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in New Jersey on Monday, cryptocurrency lender BlockFi filed a lawsuit against a holding company by FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried over his shares in trading platform Robinhood, the Financial Times reported.

    The suit was filed against Bankman-Fried’s vehicle Emergent Fidelity Technologies, of whom BlockFi is seeking to recover unpaid collateral.

    The filing – also lodged in New Jersey – says BlockFi entered into a pledge agreement with Emergent on Nov. 9 stating that an unnamed borrower was obliged to pledge “certain shares of common stock” and has breached the agreement by failing to comply with its payment obligations.

    The Financial Times reports the collateral in question is Bankman-Fried’s 7.6% stake in Robinhood which he bought earlier this year.

    “Emergent has defaulted on its obligations under the pledge agreement and failed to satisfy its obligations thereunder despite written notice of default and acceleration,” the lawsuit filing says.

    The lawsuit also named London-based brokerage ED&F Man Capital Markets for refusing to “transfer the collateral” to BlockFi.

    “This is a highly complex matter,” a spokesperson for ED&F Man Capital Markets told MarketWatch in an emailed statement.

    “We cannot comment on matters that are subject to legal proceedings but will of course comply with any direction given by the judge,” they added.

    On Monday, BlockFi, who was once valued at $3 billion, filed for bankruptcy protection after becoming the latest company to be pushed over the edge from the collapse of crypto exchange FTX.

    See also: BlockFi’s big creditors include an indenture trustee firm, FTX and the SEC

    The lawsuit is the latest headache for Bankman-Fried, who is already the subject of a number of investigations in the U.S. and the Bahamas – where FTX was based. The downfall of FTX has triggered a chain reaction of crypto-casualties including crypto financial-services firm Genesis.

    FTX collapse to be focus of Senate hearing Thursday — here’s what to watch for

    BlockFi and representatives of Bankman-Fried did not immediately respond to MarketWatch’s request for comment.

    See also: Bitcoin prices under pressure as cracks spread across crypto industry

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  • Barclays CEO C.S. Venkatakrishnan Diagnosed With Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma

    Barclays CEO C.S. Venkatakrishnan Diagnosed With Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma

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    By Joe Hoppe

    Barclays PLC said Monday that Chief Executive Officer C.S. Venkatakrishnan has been diagnosed with non-Hodgkin lymphoma, with treatment expected to last 12 to 16 weeks.

    The FTSE 100-listed bank said the cancer has been detected early and the prognosis is good. Mr. Venkatakrishnan will continue to actively manage the company during the treatment period.

    Write to Joe Hoppe at joseph.hoppe@wsj.com

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  • ‘We’re headed for a family feud’: My father offered his 3 kids equal monetary gifts. My siblings took cash. I took stock. It’s soared in value — now they’re crying foul

    ‘We’re headed for a family feud’: My father offered his 3 kids equal monetary gifts. My siblings took cash. I took stock. It’s soared in value — now they’re crying foul

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    Dear Quentin,

    Several years before my father’s death, he offered me and my two siblings each an early “cash gift” from his estate in the amount of whatever the maximum non-taxable amount was at the time. He was an active investor and offered the gift in the form of the stock instead of cash. My siblings took the cash and I decided to take it in stock valued the same as the cash amount.  

    Fast forward five years: My father just passed away and my siblings bought expensive toys and luxury automobiles with their cash, while my stock is worth many times what it was when it was given to me. His will states that the three of us should share in equal parts of his estate, but my siblings are arguing that my now very valuable stock should be included as an asset to be split among the estate.

    Legally, they have no leg to stand on, but both are insistent that I’m taking money that is morally theirs. There’s no changing their mind and I’m convinced that we’re headed for a family feud. I’m not sure what I should do. Had the stock value gone to zero in that time, they wouldn’t be arguing that I should get extra to compensate for my “bad gamble.”

    The Other Brother

    Dear Other Brother,

    Them’s the breaks — in this case, the sudden screeching of car brakes.

    Your siblings could have chosen stocks over cash, but they wanted immediate gratification. That was their decision, and they are going to have to take ownership of their choice and live with it. Buying stocks are more likely to pay off if you hold on to them over the long term. You did just that. Instead of buying a Ferrari or a Tesla
    TSLA,
    -0.19%
    ,
    you effectively chose to invest your gift.

    Show the same certainty now, and don’t cave to your siblings’ demands. Don’t allow them to bully you into selling.

    Investing is all about delaying your gratification — the ability to live for today and save for a more comfortable tomorrow, as opposed to having everything today and to hell with tomorrow. The gamification of stock trading with apps such as Robinhood
    HOOD,
    -0.74%
    ,
    which has extended its trading hours beyond the market’s official hours, is in part about getting that dopamine hit. (However, trading after hours comes with risks — chief among them warped stock prices.)

    This dispute is about choice. If you had taken the cash, those stocks would still be part of your father’s estate, but you made the choice to take the stock. Your siblings had the same option and chose not to exercise it. Tell them, “I know it must be frustrating for you, but we all had the same opportunity. I took it. You took the cash.”

    There is only one reason they missed out — and if they look in the rearview mirror of their respective luxury cars, they will see that reason staring right back at them.

    Yocan email The Moneyist with any financial and ethical questions related to coronavirus at qfottrell@marketwatch.com, and follow Quentin Fottrell on Twitter.

    Check out the Moneyist private Facebook group, where we look for answers to life’s thorniest money issues. Readers write in to me with all sorts of dilemmas. Post your questions, tell me what you want to know more about, or weigh in on the latest Moneyist columns.

    The Moneyist regrets he cannot reply to questions individually.

    By emailing your questions, you agree to having them published anonymously on MarketWatch. By submitting your story to Dow Jones & Company, the publisher of MarketWatch, you understand and agree that we may use your story, or versions of it, in all media and platforms, including via third parties.

    More from Quentin Fottrell:

    • My girlfriend says I should tip in restaurants. I say waitstaff are just like construction and fast-food workers. Who’s right?
    • ‘He was infatuated with her’: My brother had a drinking problem and took his own life. He left $6 million to his former girlfriend who used to buy him alcohol
    • She had a will, but it was null and void’: My friend and her sister are fighting over their mother’s life-insurance policy and bank account. Who should win out?

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  • Credit Suisse shares tumble after flagging $1.6 billion 4Q loss amid strain for wealth management comes

    Credit Suisse shares tumble after flagging $1.6 billion 4Q loss amid strain for wealth management comes

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    Credit Suisse Group AG shares tumbled in Wednesday morning trading after the bank said asset outflows at its wealth-management business would lead to a fifth consecutive quarterly loss.

    Shares
    CS,
    -1.45%

    CSGN,
    -4.64%

    at 0830 GMT were down 4.9% to CHF3.66.

    The Swiss lender said it expects to post a loss before taxes of around 1.5 billion Swiss francs ($1.58 billion) in the fourth quarter, after lower deposits and assets under management led to reduced commissions and fees.

    The bank, Switzerland’s second-largest by assets, said that it net-asset outflows in the quarter to Nov. 11 were around 6%, or $88.3 billion of its total $1.47 trillion assets under management.

    At the bank’s wealth-management arm, its key business serving the world’s rich, customers removed $66.7 billion.

    It came after the Zurich-based company experienced deposit and net-asset outflows in the first two weeks of October, it said, after social-media reports and a spike in credit-default swaps caused a frenzy over the bank’s financial position.

    The bank said the outflows led its liquidity to fall below some local-level legal requirements, but it maintained its required group-level liquidity and funding ratios at all times.

    Write to Ed Frankl at edward.frankl@dowjones.com

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  • They Lived Together, Worked Together and Lost Billions Together: Inside Sam Bankman-Fried’s Doomed FTX Empire

    They Lived Together, Worked Together and Lost Billions Together: Inside Sam Bankman-Fried’s Doomed FTX Empire

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    NASSAU, Bahamas—Sam Bankman-Fried’s $32 billion crypto-trading empire collapsed in an incandescent bankruptcy last week, prompting irate customers, crypto acolytes and Silicon Valley bigwigs to ask how something that seemed so promising could have imploded so fast.

    The emerging picture suggests FTX wasn’t simply felled by a rival, or undone by a bad trade or the relentless fall this year in the value of cryptocurrencies. Instead, it had long been a chaotic mess. From its earliest days, the firm was an unruly agglomeration of corporate entities, customer assets and Mr. Bankman-Fried himself, according to court papers, company balance sheets shown to bankers and interviews with employees and investors. No one could say exactly what belonged to whom. Prosecutors are now investigating its collapse.

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  • Economy may be in a recession already, Conference Board says, after leading index drops for eighth straight month

    Economy may be in a recession already, Conference Board says, after leading index drops for eighth straight month

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    The U.S. leading economic index fell 0.8% in October, the Conference Board said Friday.

    Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 0.4% fall.

    This is the eighth straight decline in the leading index.

    The long period of declines suggests “the economy is possibly in a recession,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at the Conference Board. He said the data show a recession is likely to start around the end of the year and last through mid-2023.

    The coincident index, which measures current conditions, rose 0.2% in October after a 0.1% gain in the prior month. The lagging index increased by 0.1%, matching the September gain. 

    The LEI is a weighted gauge of 10 indicators designed to signal business-cycle peaks and valleys.

    Stocks
    DJIA,
    +0.59%

    SPX,
    +0.48%

    were trading higher on Friday morning and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.827%

    rose to 3.8%.

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  • U.S. existing home sales retreat for a record ninth straight month in October

    U.S. existing home sales retreat for a record ninth straight month in October

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    The numbers: Existing-home sales fell 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million in October, the National Association of Realtors said Friday. Compared with October 2021, home sales were down 28.4%.

    Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected an decrease to 4.37 million units. 

    The level of sales is the lowest since December 2011 excluding the 2020 pandemic.

    This is also the ninth straight monthly decline in sales, the longest streak on record.

    Key details: The median price for an existing home was $379,100 up 6.6% from October 2021.

    But price gains are decelerating. Prices were up over 20% on a year-on-year basis earlier this year.

    Housing inventory fell 0.8% to 1.22 million units in October. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.3-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.1 months in September and 2.4 months a year ago.

    A 6-month supply of homes is generally viewed as indicative of a balanced market.

    Sales declined in all regions of the country.

    Big picture: Home sales have dropped as mortgage rates have risen sharply and affordability has dropped.

    Softer inflation data in October have led to a drop in mortgage rates, which could lead for a floor on sales.

    At the same time, Federal Reserve officials may pencil in a “peak” interest rate above 5% at the policy meeting next month.

    Economists see home prices have further to fall in this market.

    What the NAR is saying: Home sales have been very low and the softness could continue for a few months. But sales could pick up early next year if the mortgage rate has peaked, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR.

    Market reaction: Stocks
    DJIA,
    +0.59%

    SPX,
    +0.48%

    opened lower on Friday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.827%

    rose to 3.79%.

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  • Supposed $477 million FTX ‘hack’ was actually a Bahamian government asset seizure

    Supposed $477 million FTX ‘hack’ was actually a Bahamian government asset seizure

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    Remember that hack of nearly half a  billion dollars in cryptocurrency from bankrupt FTX last weekend? Turns out it was actually a government asset seizure.

    The Securities Commission of the Bahamas has now acknowledged that it was behind the removal of $477 million in crypto assets from the bankrupt exchange on Nov. 12.

    “The Securities Commission of the Bahamas, in the exercise of its powers as regulator acting under the authority of an order made by the Supreme Court of the Bahamas, took the action of directing the transfer of all the digital assets of FTX Digital Markets Ltd. to a digital wallet controlled by the commission, for safekeeping,” the agency said in a statement.

    The transfer occurred the day after FTX had filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in Delaware and immediately sparked concerns of a major hack. The company announced that day that “unauthorized access to certain assets has occurred” and that they were coordinating with law enforcement on the matter.”

    On Thursday, the U.S.-based bankruptcy administrators led by John Ray, III, who have taken control of FTX, said in court filings that they had “credible evidence” that officials in the Bahamas had directed FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried to access FTX’s systems after the Chapter 11 filing, “for the purpose of obtaining digital assets of the debtors.”

    The seizure of assets came amid an emerging fight for control over the direction of the bankruptcy proceeding, with officials in the Bahamas filing a separate Chapter 15 bankruptcy petition in federal court in New York on Nov. 15.

    That filing was on behalf of FTX Digital Markets Ltd., a subsidiary that managed significant aspects of the company’s operations from its headquarters in the Caribbean island nation. 

    A Chapter 15 filing is used typically in cases involving companies with debtors in multiple countries.

    In its statement, the Bahamian Securities Commission said it believed FTX Digital Markets was not part of the Delaware bankruptcy proceeding.

    The administrators of the Delaware bankruptcy have asked the judge in their case to combine the cases, saying that it was duplicative and confusing to keep them separate. The judge scheduled a hearing on the matter for Monday.

    The administrators of the Delaware case have accused Bankman-Fried of attempting to undermine their efforts to sort out the mess he left behind by pushing the second bankruptcy case brought by Bahamian officials. 

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  • Visa CEO Al Kelly to step down from that role in February

    Visa CEO Al Kelly to step down from that role in February

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    Visa Inc. Chief Executive Al Kelly plans to step down from that role in February, to be replaced by Ryan McInerney, the company’s current president and a veteran of the payments giant for nearly a decade.

    Kelly, who’s been with Visa
    V,
    +0.40%

    in the CEO role since late 2016, said the timing of the change was right for him in a number of ways, as he’s soon to turn 65 and has a “lot of energy” to move into the next chapter of his life. He plans to embrace both his role as a grandfather and to continue to serve Visa through an executive chairman position on the company’s board of directors.

    After working with McInerney for the past six years, Kelly sees him as a worthy successor.

    “He is ready to  be the CEO of this company,” Kelly told MarketWatch. “He’s a phenomenal executive. He has the ability to be extraordinarily strategic and he’s also an incredibly thoughtful, get-in-the-weeds problem solver.”

    Under Kelly’s tenure thus far as CEO, Visa’s market value has increased to $437 billion from $181 billion, while its stock gained 173%.

    He is nearing his 65th birthday next year, as is Visa, based on a popular understanding of the company’s origins.

    Visa framed the transition as reflective of “the board’s very well-established and thoughtful succession plan,” according to comments from John Lundgren, the board’s lead independent director, in a press release.

    “We see this announcement as part of a planned succession and do not think it will be a surprise to investors,” RBC Capital Markets analyst Daniel Perlin wrote in a note to clients.

    McInerney has been responsible for Visa’s global businesses in his role as president, looking over the company’s product team and merchant team, among others. He’s been with Visa for almost a decade and sees “huge opportunity over the next 10 years” in areas like business-to-business transactions, government-to-consumer disbursements, and other payment functions that are newer to Visa.

    In both emerging and developed markets, he told MarketWatch he sees the potential for an “amazing digitalization of what we call ‘new payment flows.’”

    McInerney views Visa founder Dee Hock, who died over the summer at 93, as an “inspiration. Hock was “one of the original disruptors” who “saw things so far in the future that people couldn’t really imagine,” he said.

    See also: He saved credit cards, and now he’s inspiring crypto enthusiasts

    Kelly, who is staying on the company’s board, said he “will not be involved in the day-to-day running of the company,” but that he will be there to serve as a helper and adviser “for as long as it’s valuable to Ryan and his executive team.”

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  • Black Friday surprise: Jeff Bezos tells people NOT to buy cars, refrigerators and other big-ticket items. Critics call him out.

    Black Friday surprise: Jeff Bezos tells people NOT to buy cars, refrigerators and other big-ticket items. Critics call him out.

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    Billionaire Jeff Bezos, who founded the e-retail behemoth Amazon, has some spending tips as Americans gear up for a holiday shopping season — amid four-decade high inflation and recession worries.

    Here’s what he said:

    ‘If you’re an individual and you’re thinking about buying a large-screen TV, maybe slow that down, keep that cash, see what happens. Same thing with a refrigerator, a new car, whatever. Just take some risk off the table.’

    Bezos made the comments in a CNN
    WBD,
    +0.46%

    interview that aired this week, the same interview where he pledged to give away most of his fortune in his lifetime.

    Why did Bezos offer the tip for consumers and small business to go easy on big-ticket items? He gave one big reason.

    “If we’re not in a recession right now, we’re likely to be in one very soon,” he said in the interview, picking up on his cautionary tweet last month that “the probabilities in this economy tell you to batten down the hatches.”

    Bezos is currently executive chair at Amazon
    AMZN,
    -2.34%
    ,
    transitioning to the role last year as Andy Jassy took the reins as CEO.

    Later this week, Amazon confirmed it was laying off some of its staff in its device and services business — joining a growing list of tech companies, including Facebook parent Meta
    META,
    -1.57%

    — that is laying people off. Amazon’s job cuts could number around 10,000, according to the Wall Street Journal.

    Critics have taken aim at these words of thrift coming from a man — now worth approximately $120 billion — who built Amazon into the online shopping bonanza.

    To be sure, Bezos is not alone is his worries about a potential recession as the Federal Reserve and other central banks fight higher costs by hiking interest rates.

    But his advice prompted some guffaws on social media. In a nutshell, critics say these are words of thrift coming from a man — now worth approximately $120 billion — who built Amazon into the online shopping bonanza that lets consumers seamlessly spend money.

    As Joshua Becker, a proponent of minimalism wrote on Twitter: “I didn’t hear him mention refraining from Amazon’s Prime Day deals or Black Friday offers, but I recommend adding those items to your list as well.”

    Regardless of how anyone feels about hearing spending advice, particularly from one of the world’s richest people, there are some things to consider as events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday approach.

    For one thing, maybe there are discretionary expenses where people can cut back. Many Americans are still spending briskly, as Walmart
    WMT,
    -0.34%

    third-quarter earnings and October’s retail-sales numbers recently affirmed. Holiday-spending projections paint the same picture.

    Americans will spend between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion on holiday-season sales this year, according to projections from the National Retail Federation. Last year’s holiday sales totaled $889.3 billion, the trade association said.

    During the third quarter, Americans’ credit-card balances climbed to $930 billion, the biggest annual increase in more than 20 years, according to the National Retail Federation.

    But Americans are planning for the holidays while credit-card balances are increasing — likely because credit cards are helping them keep up with rising costs.

    During the third quarter, Americans’ credit-card balances climbed to $930 billion, the biggest annual increase in more than 20 years, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York data.

    While balances grow, so do credit-card interest rates. The annual percentage rate (APR) on new credit-card offers averaged 19.14% in mid-November, according to Bankrate.com. That beats the old record on APRs for new cards, set at 19% three decades ago.

    The holiday shopping season is typically when Americans accumulate credit-card debt, pay the debts in the early part of the coming year and repeat the holiday-season debt the following year.

    This year, the stakes could be higher if high credit-card bills arrive and a recession-induced job loss follows.

    “It’s not the time to overspend and have a problem with paying your bills later,” Michele Raneri, vice president of financial services research and consulting at TransUnion
    TRU,
    -4.94%
    ,
    one of the country’s three major credit bureaus, previously told MarketWatch. “We know the economy is sending mixed messages.”

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  • ‘This situation is unprecedented’: 10 crazy things detailed in FTX’s bankruptcy filing

    ‘This situation is unprecedented’: 10 crazy things detailed in FTX’s bankruptcy filing

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    On Thursday, John Ray, III, the new CEO of FTX, dropped a long-awaited declaration in U.S. bankruptcy court, giving a sober assessment of the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire. The bankruptcy-court filing followed a whirlwind of events, including the publication of explosive texts Bankman-Fried sent to a Vox reporter earlier this week.   

    Ray set the tone for what he has found since FTX filed for bankruptcy protection last week, citing his 40 years of experience in the legal and restructuring business, including a role as chief restructuring officer and CEO of Enron, one of the biggest corporate collapses ever. 

    “Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here,” Ray wrote. “This situation is unprecedented.” 

    Here are 10 revelations that Ray made in federal bankruptcy court on Thursday about Bankman-Fried and the FTX debacle he created. 

    1. Most of FTX’s digital assets have not been secured

    As of Thursday, Ray made clear that while he now controls the various FTX trading and exchange platforms and Bankman-Fried’s crypto hedge fund Alameda Research, he’d “located and secured only a fraction of the digital assets” he hoped to recover. In fact, Ray said only some $740 million of cryptocurrency had been secured in new cold wallets. Ray cited at least $372 million of unauthorized transfers that had taken place on the day FTX and Alameda filed for bankruptcy last week, and the “dilutive ‘minting’ of approximately $300 million in FTT tokens by an unauthorized source” in the days after the filing. FTT tokens were created by FTX to facilitate trading on its exchange and made up a big chunk of Alameda’s assets.

    2. Nobody knows who the biggest customer creditors are of FTX. 

    FTX.com and FTX.US had customers around the world who used its cryptocurrency exchanges and platforms. But Ray said he was unable to create a list of FTX’s top 50 creditors that included customers.

    3. Alameda Research loaned $4.1 billion out to entities, including Bankman-Fried and his closest partners.

    There have been reports that FTX lent out billions of dollars in customer funds to Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund, Alameda Research. But on Thursday, Ray revealed that Alameda had made $4.1 billion of related-party loans that remained outstanding at the end of September. This included a $1 billion loan Alameda made to Bankman-Fried himself, a $543 million loan made to FTX cofounder Nishad Singh, and $55 million borrowed by FTX co-CEO Ryan Salame.  

    4. FTX corporate funds were used to buy personal homes

    Bankman-Fried lived in a luxury resort in the Bahamas, where FTX was also based. There, bankruptcy filings say, corporate funds of FTX “were used to purchase homes and other personal items for employees and advisors.” Ray said in his filing that there is no documentation for the transactions and loans associated with these real estate purchases, which were recorded in the personal name of employees and advisors.

    5. Personalized emojis to approve disbursements 

    To demonstrate the lack of disbursement and appropriate business controls at FTX, Ray pointed out that FTX employees  “submitted payment requests through an on-line ‘chat’ platform where a disparate group of supervisors approved disbursements by responding with personalized emojis.” 

    6. Alameda Research was one of the world’s biggest hedge funds

    According to the bankruptcy filing, Alameda’s balance sheet showed $13.46 billion in total assets as of the end of September. That’s roughly equivalent to the assets managed by famous billionaire hedge fund traders like Bill Ackman, Paul Tudor Jones and Jeffrey Talpins.

    7. Audit opinions from the metaverse

    Bankman-Fried secured audit opinions for the international FTX trading platform part of his business from Prager Metis, a firm that Ray had never heard of before. Ray said he went to the firm’s website to learn more about it and discovered that Prager Metis described itself as the“first-ever CPA firm to officially open its Metaverse headquarters in the metaverse platform Decentraland.”

    8. Alameda had a secret exemption on FTX.com

    Ray’s filing on Thursday indicated that Bankman-Fried’s Alameda hedge fund might have had a trading edge on the FTX.com trading platform. According to the filing, Alameda had a “secret exemption” from “certain aspects of FTX.com’s auto-liquidation protocol.” 

    9. Customer liabilities are not reflected in FTX financial statements 

    Ray expects that the FTX.US exchange and trading platform, which serviced American customers, will have “significant liabilities arising from crypto assets deposited by customers through the FTX US platform.” He believes the FTX exchange that was used by FTX clients outside the U.S. could also have significant client liabilities. But none of these liabilities are reflected in the financial statements that were prepared while Bankman-Fried ran FTX, Ray said. 

    10. Ray has no confidence in any FTX balance sheet 

    Time and again in the filing, Ray offers the same disclaimer after detailing FTX-related financial statements. He notes that many of the balance sheets at FTX and Alameda are unaudited, and that because they were produced while Bankman-Fried ran and controlled the company, “I do not have confidence in it.”

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  • Everything You Need to Know About Debt Consolidation and Your Credit Score

    Everything You Need to Know About Debt Consolidation and Your Credit Score

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    Debt consolidation is usually billed as a smart financial move, because it can boost your credit score and save you money.

    But a few mistakes could actually hurt your credit or cost you more money in the long run. Here’s what to keep in mind when deciding whether to consolidate your debt and how to choose the best way to do it.

    How Does Debt Consolidation Work?

    Debt consolidation usually means taking out a loan to pay off existing debts, most commonly credit card debt.

    These are technically personal loans that lenders often market as “debt consolidation loans,” which isn’t inaccurate. It’s just their way of letting you know how they can help you.

    You’ll take out the loan, receive the funds and use them to pay off your credit card balances. Then you’ll repay the loan over time like any other loan.

    You could also consolidate with a balance-transfer credit card or other kind of loan, such as a retirement account loan or home equity loan. However, personal loans typically have the advantage of lower interest rates and no collateral requirement.

    People with a lot of high-interest debt tend to look to consolidation because it simplifies repayment, and could reduce the cost of the debt through lower monthly payments, a lower interest rate or both.

    Pros and Cons of Debt Consolidation Loans

    While debt consolidation usually helps your credit score, there are some pros and cons to consider before you consolidate credit card debt or other high-interest loans.


    Pros

    • Fewer monthly payments
    • Lower interest rate
    • Lower monthly payment
    • Boosts credit score


    Cons

    • Costs more over time
    • Could hurt your credit score
    • One larger monthly payment
    • Potential fee upfront or over time

    4 Alternatives to Debt Consolidation

    You might come across companies offering one of several ways to fix your debt. They’ll each have a different effect on your credit score and apply to different situations:

    1. Debt Refinancing

    Refinancing works like consolidation, but the term usually refers to paying off a single debt. You pay off one loan balance with a new loan that gives you a better interest rate and repayment terms. Refinance your debt if your credit and finances have improved since you first borrowed.

    2. Debt relief

    Debt relief is an umbrella term that includes consolidation and refinancing, and it often includes some amount of debt forgiveness. The term is often used by companies that facilitate debt consolidation or a “debt management plan” — you’re generally better off doing a little research and managing the debt on your own.

    3. Debt Settlement

    Settlement is when you agree with a creditor on a reduced repayment amount that it’ll consider payment in full. This will show up on your credit report and could have a negative impact for several years, but will help you pay off the debt faster.

    4. Debt Restructuring

    Restructuring is more common for companies than individuals and usually happens in dire situations. The effect is similar to refinancing, but it involves reorganizing the existing debt rather than replacing it with a new one.

    Do You Need Good Credit to Consolidate Debt?

    You don’t necessarily need a high credit score to take out a loan for debt consolidation, but better credit gives you a better chance at a low interest rate and favorable terms.

    Watch out for predatory lenders if you have a low credit score. Some unscrupulous companies are willing to give you a loan you can’t afford with a super high interest rate. A loan you can’t afford to repay could put you in a worse situation than you are with credit card debt.

    How Could Debt Consolidation Help Your Credit Score?

    Consolidating debt could help your credit score in two major ways:

    • Lower your credit utilization: The amount of available credit you use weighs heavily into your score. A bunch of maxed-out credit cards looks bad. Consolidation pays off those balances and reduces your utilization.
    • A positive line on your credit report: The loan is a way to demonstrate your creditworthiness as long as you stay current on payments.

    Consolidation itself doesn’t leave a negative mark on your credit report, like debt settlement does. But the loan (or credit card) shows up as a new credit line, which could temporarily lower your score.

    How Could Debt Consolidation Hurt Your Credit Score?

    A few common debt consolidation mistakes could hurt your credit score or cost you money. Here are a few tips to make the right decision about whether a debt consolidation loan could hurt your credit score and how to save money in your situation.

    Don’t Close the Paid Accounts

    After you pay off credit cards, don’t close every account. Having them on your credit report affects these factors that make up your credit score:

    • Age of credit history: Creditors want to see you’ve been around the block with credit. When you close old cards, your average credit history gets shorter.
    • Credit mix: This is the variety of types of debt you have — installment loan vs. credit card vs. mortgage, for example. It has a small but significant effect on your credit score.
    • Utilization: More cards open means more available credit. Cut up your cards to avoid growing that balance again, and that unused credit will keep your utilization ratio low.

    Keep Up With Payments

    Your credit card consolidation loan or balance-transfer credit card is still debt with monthly payments you have to keep up with.

    Budget before you take out the loan so you know you can afford the monthly payment. Staying on top of the payments should help your credit score over time — but getting behind will hurt.

    If you opt for a balance transfer card — which usually comes with an introductory 0% APR for about a year — plan to pay the debt off during the introductory period. Any longer, and you’ll have to pay interest and probably face a high interest rate and annual fees.

    Compare Consolidation Options

    Shop for the best debt consolidation loans before committing.

    Consider what kind of consolidation — personal loan, balance transfer card or secured loan — works best for you based on your budget, existing debt and creditworthiness.

    Online loan marketplaces can help you quickly see and compare personal loan offers from lenders side by side.

    To evaluate a debt consolidation loan, consider:

    • Interest rate: Aim for an interest rate that’s lower than the combined rate on your existing debt. A loan with a higher rate could still give you the relief of a lower monthly payment and fewer creditors, but it will cost you more money.
    • Monthly payment: Reorganizing your debt to land a smaller monthly payment could outweigh the long-term savings you’d get with a shorter repayment term or lower interest. A smaller bill could make the difference between paying on time or not, which has a major impact on your credit score.
    • Fees: Read the fine print to understand the total cost of consolidation. A personal loan might come with an origination fee, and a balance transfer card might charge an annual fee after the first year.
    • Repayment term: The longer you have to repay the debt, the smaller your monthly payment will likely be — and the more time the balance will have to accrue compounding interest, which will cost you more money over time.

    Refinance Again in the Future

    Maybe your best option now is to take out a loan at a high interest rate and a long repayment term. If that gets you on track with debt payments, it could be what you need to boost your credit score.

    Just don’t stick yourself with those bad terms for the long haul.

    As your score rises and you get a handle on your monthly budget, consider refinancing the loan to get better terms in the future.

    Debt Consolidation Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

    What Do You Need to Qualify for Debt Consolidation?

    Qualifying for a debt consolidation loan has many of the same requirements as qualifying for any loan. You’ll need to be at least 18 years old, provide proof of citizenship and submit documentation of your current income and the ability to make monthly debt payments at the current interest rates. You’ll also have to meet the lender’s minimum credit score requirement, which is usually in the 600 range for this type of loan. 

    Is Debt Consolidation a Good Reason to Get a Personal Loan?

    Many lenders specifically offer debt consolidation loans, but you don’t have to consolidate that way. Instead of working with debt consolidation loan companies, you can choose to consolidate debts through personal loan lenders with lower interest rates. This can be a smart financial move if you have several high interest credit card bills or multiple debts, but your credit score needs to be 650 or above to qualify for unsecured personal loans with most lenders.

    How Long Will it Take for Debt Consolidation to Improve My Credit Score?

    The length of time it takes for debt consolidation to affect your credit score depends on how you consolidated the debt. In the instance of a straightforward debt consolidation loan, you should see it improve your credit score within 6 to 24 months. If you’re trying to qualify for another loan like a home equity loan, you’ll want to start the consolidation process up to a year ahead of applying.

    Kaz Weida is a senior writer for The Penny Hoarder. Dana Miranda contributed. 




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  • Oil Could Rise After Latest EU Sanctions on Russia. Why a Rally May Not Last.

    Oil Could Rise After Latest EU Sanctions on Russia. Why a Rally May Not Last.

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    The European Union’s ban on seaborne imports of Russian oil, along with the Group of Seven’s plan to cap prices of oil from Russia early next month won’t guarantee that prices for the commodity will see a lasting rally, or that supplies will tighten further in the days ahead.

    “In isolation, the sanctions on Russia should be bullish for prices,” says Matt Smith, lead oil analyst, Americas, at Kpler. However, they may have a limited effect, as Russian barrels get “rerouted and not taken off the market,” while a price cap still has so much uncertainty surrounding it that its impact may be “muted due to workarounds or may simply be ineffective.”

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  • ‘What. H.A.P.P.E.N….’ — Sam Bankman-Fried’s latest slow roll of tweets spark scorn as well as concern

    ‘What. H.A.P.P.E.N….’ — Sam Bankman-Fried’s latest slow roll of tweets spark scorn as well as concern

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    The latest message from former FTX chief executive Sam Bankman-Fried left onlookers puzzled and alarmed after the swift decline into bankruptcy for the cryptocurrency exchange he founded.

    In successive tweets, Bankman-Fried’s twitter account merely stated, “What,” followed by capital letters H.A.P.P.E.N., unfurled slowly over the span of about 19 hours.

    Bankman-Fried has been an active tweeter throughout FTX’s demise, earlier having written that he was “shocked to see things unravel the way they did.”

    Twitter and Tesla
    TSLA,
    -2.56%

    CEO Elon Musk, who’s also having some difficulties, tweeted with fire emojis to an attempt at a translation of the cryptic tweet.

    Musk also tweeted his amusement at the claim that Bankman-Fried played a “League of Legends” game — the same game the executive infamously was playing when the venture-capital firm Sequoia invested in FTX. Court filings from Musk’s failed attempt to get out of his Twitter purchase show that he doubted that Bankman-Fried ever had $3 billion liquid to co-invest in Twitter.

    While the broader social-media sentiment was a wish for Bankman-Fried to be jailed, there also was concern for his health.

    FTX has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, and over the weekend there also seems to have been a hack of customer funds. The securities regulator in FTX’s headquarters of the Bahamas meanwhile said it had not requested the prioritization for withdrawals of funds for Bahamian clients.

    Reuters reported the allegation Bankman-Fried had a “back door” that allowed him to mask the transfer of customer funds to his Alameda hedge fund, which Bankman-Fried told the news agency was just “confusing internal labeling.”

    The former FTX CEO couldn’t be reached for comment.

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  • The 9 Best Starter Credit Cards for Little or No Credit of November 2022

    The 9 Best Starter Credit Cards for Little or No Credit of November 2022

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    Whether you’re someone looking to start building your credit or someone with poor credit looking to begin again, a starter credit card is probably a good choice for you.

    For the most part, starter credit cards can be broken into three main categories: secured credit cards, unsecured starter credit cards, and student credit cards.

    Each of these has different requirements and benefits. However, no matter the category, a good starter credit card is one that is easy to qualify for, has low annual fees, reports to all three credit bureaus, and sometimes even lets you upgrade to a better card.

    Ultimately which card will work for you depends on your needs and credit history, but we’ve gathered all the best starter credit cards from each category to get your started.

    As you look, keep in mind that the purpose of this card is to establish a good credit history, so that you can ultimately move on to bigger and better credit cards in the future.

    The Best Starter Credit Cards

    • Capital One QuickSilverOne Cash Rewards Credit Card: Best for Simple Cash Back
    • Blue Cash Everyday Card from American Express: Best for Non-U.S. Credit Histories
    • Petal 2 “Cash Back, No Fees” Visa Credit Card: Best for No Fees
    • Tomo Credit Card: Best for Focused Credit Growth
    • Discover it Student CashBack Credit Card: Best for Overall Student Card
    • Deserve EDU Mastercard for Students: Best for International Students
    • Discover it Secured Credit Card: Best Overall Secured Credit Card
    • Capital One Platinum Secured Credit Card: Best for Flexible Deposit
    • U.S. Bank Altitude Go Visa Secured Card: Best for Dining Rewards

    Capital One QuickSilverOne

    Best for Simple Cash Back

    Key Features

    • 1.5% cash back on everyday purchases
    • Higher credit line possible in 6 months

    The Capital One QuickSilverOne Cash Rewards Credit Card is a traditional, unsecured credit card that accepts fair credit, allowing some less established credit users to qualify. With 1.5% cash back on every purchase, this card is simple to use: there are no complex, rotating rewards categories or redemption strategies that sometimes trip up first time credit card users.

    Capital One QuickSilverOne

    Annual Cost

    $39

    Regular APR

    28.49% variable APR

    Reward Rate

    1% – 5% cash back per $1

    Foreign Transaction Fee

    N/A

    Credit Score

    Fair to good credit (580 to 740)

    More Information about Capital One QuickSilverOne Cash Rewards Credit Card

    While the Capital One QuickSilverOne Cash Rewards credit card isn’t truly a “starter” card, it does accept fair credit scores. This allows many newer credit users to qualify, which is why we keep it on our best starter credit cards list. 

    With this card, you get 1.5% back on everything you spend and 5% back on rental cars and hotels booked through Capital One Travel. Besides cashing in points through Capital One Travel, you can redeem your rewards at any time for cash or a statement credit, or you could even apply it to cover a recent purchase. 

    It’s worth noting that the APR on this card is pretty steep, so avoid carrying a balance. On the other hand, Capital One does have you covered if you plan on traveling internationally with no foreign transaction fees.  

    Overall, this card is a no fuss way to start building your credit while getting rewards. It reports to all three credit bureaus, and in as little as 6 months, you can be automatically considered for a higher credit line. 

    Basically, if you qualify, this is a solid choice to start your credit card journey. 

    Blue Cash Everyday Card

    Best Non-U.S. Credit Histories

    Key Features

    • $100 welcome bonus with eligible purchases
    • No annual fee

    Through a partnership with Nova Credit, American Express is able to accept credit histories from select countries outside of the U.S. to help you qualify for a card. If you qualify, this card has good rewards returns and no annual fee.

    Blue Cash Everyday Card

    Annual Cost

    $0

    Regular APR

    0% intro APR, 17.74% – 28.74% variable APR

    Reward Rate

    1% – 3% cash back per $1

    Foreign Transaction Fee

    2.7%

    Credit Score

    Good to Excellent (690 – 850)

    More Information about Blue Cash Everyday Card from American Express

    A card that requires a good credit score might look misplaced on a best starter credit card list, but the Blue Cash Everyday Card from American Express is a special case, and you’ll see why immediately. 

    Unlike most US credit card issuers, American Express’ partnership with Nova Credit allows them to take into account credit scores from foreign countries when evaluating a customer’s credit worthiness. However, this isn’t available to all foreign credit scores. Currently, Nova vouches for credit from Australia, Canada, India, Mexico, The United Kingdom, Brazil, The Dominican Republic, Kenya, and Nigeria. 

    Once qualified, the Blue Cash Everyday Card is a great credit card. You’ll get 3% cash back on US grocery stores, 3% on US online retail, and 3% on gas. Each of these categories has a $6,000 cap on purchases eligible for rewards each year. After that, you’ll receive 1% per dollar like you do for all other purchases. 

    Plus, as an introductory offer, you also get 0% APR for the first 15 months on purchases and balance transfers and $0 Plan It fees for their Buy Now, Pay Later plan. 

    While this card is a great choice for foreigners living in the United States, it’s not a good choice for traveling outside of the US. American Express credit cards are not as widely accepted internationally as some other credit card issuers, and they do charge foreign transaction fees. 

    Still, if you’re new to the United States and from one of the lucky countries on Nova’s list, the Blue Cash Everyday credit card is a great credit card to start with. 

    Petal 2 Visa Credit Card

    Best for No Fees

    Key Features

    • No fees
    • Potentially high credit limit

    The Petal 2 “Cash Back, No Fees” Visa credit card is a great starter credit card option because it does not require a credit score. There is also no required security deposit, no annual or hidden fees, and you’ll get 1% back on purchases.

    Petal 2 Visa Credit Card

    Annual Cost

    $0

    Regular APR

    12.99% – 26.99% variable APR

    Reward Rate

    1%-1.5% cash back per $1 (2% – 10% with select merchants)

    Foreign Transaction Fee

    N/A

    Credit Score

    New, Average to Excellent (630-850)

    More Information about Petal 2 “Cash Back, No Fees” Visa Credit Card

    The Petal 2 “Cash Back, No Fees” Visa credit card means what they say when they promise no fees. There is no annual fee, no foreign transaction fees, no late payment fee, and no returned payment fee–a lack of fees almost unheard of for starter cards. 

    You can even qualify for this card if you have a limited credit history. Petal will take into account things like income and savings to establish your creditworthiness–no credit score required. Plus, as an unsecured card, you don’t need a security deposit to qualify. 

    However, because this is marketed specifically as a starter credit card, the Petal 2 credit card does not offer cash advances or balance transfers. If that’s what you’re looking for, keep moving.

    Besides reporting to the three main credit bureaus, Petal actually built its rewards system as a way to reward responsible credit habits. At first, you’ll get 1% cash back on all purchases, and as you make payments on time, they’ll upgrade you to up to 1.5% cash back.

    It’s annoying to have to jump through hoops, but not all of the starter credit cards even offer rewards, so we’ll take it. 

    Finally, the Petal 2 “Cash Back, No Fees” credit card has a relatively high credit limit for cards in this category, with limits beginning at$500 and ranging up to $10,000. 

    Unfortunately, there is no option to upgrade to a traditional card and the APR is pretty high, so while this might be a good starter card, it will always only be a starter card.  

    Tomo Credit Card

    Best for Focused Credit Growth

    Key Features

    • No credit check
    • 1% cash back

    The Tomo Credit Card is focused on helping you build your credit as quickly as you can. There is no credit check to apply and no APR, but you do need a qualifying linked bank account.

    Tomo Credit Card

    Annual Cost

    $0

    Regular APR

    N/A

    Reward Rate

    1% cash back per $1

    Foreign Transaction Fee

    N/A

    Credit Score

    No Credit Check

    More Information about Tomo Credit Card

    The Tomo Credit Card has no required credit score. In fact, they don’t even require a credit check. Instead, Tomo creates individual assessments based on your financial history. This allows people with bad credit to qualify.

    Tomo advertises this card as having no APR and no fees. While this is true, it’s because it functions a little differently than most traditional credit cards.

    To use the Tomo Credit Card, you must link a bank account directly to your credit card. Then at set intervals, Tomo will pull money from your bank account to pay your card off in full. You can choose this autopay to happen as frequently as every 7 days. This keeps your credit utilization low, meaning your credit score will improve more quickly.

    This quick turn around will benefit your credit score, but might not benefit your bank account. Anything you buy on this card, you’ll have to pay in full quickly. It’s a great way to earn credit, but not why we traditionally use credit cards.

    We do like that the Tomo credit card offers 1% cashback for purchases made on this card and doesn’t have foreign transaction fees. Plus, Tomo offers credit limits of as much as $10,000, which is really high for a starter card.

    Basically, if your goal is to build credit quickly and you have poor credit, the Tomo Credit Card might be a good choice for you.

    Discover it Student Cash Back Card

    Best for Overall Student Card

    Key Features

    • No annual fee
    • Rotating bonus categories

    The Discover it Student Cash Back Credit Card is a rewarding first choice for students. With 5% back on rotating categories and an unlimited cashback match at the end of the first year, the Discover it Student Cash Back Credit Card is probably a lucrative choice for students just starting out.

    Discover it Student Cash Back Card

    Annual Cost

    $0

    Regular APR

    0% intro APR, 15.99% to 24.99% variable APR

    Reward Rate

    1% – 5% cash back per $1

    Foreign Transaction Fee

    N/A

    Credit Score

    New, Average to Excellent (630-850)

    More Information about Discover it Student Cash Back Credit Card

    Figuring out the Discover it Student Cash Back Credit Card can be a little complicated for first-time credit card users, but once you understand it, it’s pretty awesome. 

    First, Discover offers 5% back on specific categories that change each quarter. The rotating categories are:

    • January through March: 5% back on grocery stores (excluding Walmart, Target, and warehouse stores) and fitness clubs or gym memberships
    • April through June:  5% on gas stations and Target
    • July through September:  5% on restaurants and Paypal
    • October through December:  5% on Amazon.com and digital wallet purchases  

    Then, at the end of the first year, you’ll get Discover’s Unlimited Cashback Match where you get a dollar-for-dollar match of your rewards from that year. That means if you earned $50 in rewards that year, you’ll get $50 additional dollars at the end of the year automatically!

    We also like the low APR introductory offer. You get 0% APR for the first 6 months and 10.99% for balance transfers. Of course, we think you should avoid accruing any interest at all, but it’s still nice to know you have a low APR just in case. 

    As with all Discover cards, your history using the Discover it Student Cashback Credit Card  will be reported to all three main credit bureaus to help you build your credit. Not to mention the fact that this card also comes with great customer service, the fun ability to customize the physical appearance of your card and no foreign transaction fees.

    When you do graduate, Discover will transition this student credit card to a traditional credit card. You’ll get the same rotating rewards but with a higher credit limit.

    Discover it Secured Credit Card

    Best for Overall Secured Card

    Key Features

    • No annual fee
    • Cash back match

    Like all secured cards, the Discover it Secured Credit Card requires a refundable security deposit to get started. The $200 minimum deposit is a little higher than other secured cards requirements, but we do like that you get rewards on your spending and Discover’s dollar-for-dollar match the first year.

    Discover it Secured Credit Card

    Annual Cost

    $0

    Regular APR

    25.99% variable APR

    Reward Rate

    1% – 2% cash back per $1

    Foreign Transaction Fee

    N/A

    Credit Score

    New, Poor to Average Credit (300 to 629)

    More Information about Discover it Secured Credit Card

    The Discover it Secured Credit card tops our list of secured credit cards because it’s a secured credit card that doesn’t act like one. That makes it the great choice for someone with absolutely no credit history to start building a credit score. Sure, you have to pay the $200 minimum refundable deposit, but after that, Discover actually gives you a chance to earn rewards on your spending — something pretty uncommon in secured credit cards.

    You’ll get 2% back at gas stations and restaurants up to $1,000 each quarter and 1% on all other purchases. Then, at the end of the year, you’ll get a dollar-for-dollar match of those rewards thanks to Discover’s Cashback Match. This means that at the end of the first year your reward earnings will automatically double.

    As noted, this card requires a refundable security deposit starting at $200. This minimum deposit is a little higher than some other secured credit cards, but you might not need that deposit long. If you use the card responsibly, you can be eligible to upgrade to an unsecured card in as little as 7 months.

    The APR is high, but it does, of course, report to all three main credit bureaus, so if used responsibly, this is a good choice for starter credit cards

    Capital One Platinum Secured Credit Card

    Best for Flexible Deposit

    Key Features

    • No annual fee
    • Flexible deposit

    The Capital One Platinum Secured Credit Card has a unique security deposit that actually allows you to put down less than you receive. Purposely created to help people rebuild credit, the Capital One Platinum Secured card is a good choice for people with bad credit looking to begin again.

    Capital One Platinum Secured Credit Card

    Annual Cost

    $0

    Regular APR

    28.49% variable APR

    Reward Rate

    0

    Foreign Transaction Fee

    N/A

    Credit Score

    New, Poor to Average Credit (300 to 629)

    More Information about Capital One Platinum Secured Credit Card

    For most secured credit cards, the refundable security deposit directly matches the card user’s credit limit. However, with the Capital One Platinum Secured credit card, you can actually be approved for a higher credit limit than the deposit you put down. For example, if you put down $49, you can get a $200 credit limit. Looking for a larger limit? Put down $99 or $200 and get a credit limit up to $1,000.

    This card doesn’t charge an annual fee, but it also doesn’t have any rewards and the APR is pretty high at 28.49%. This isn’t a problem if you don’t carry a balance, but it could add up quickly if you make a mistake.

    Capital One does, of course, report to the three credit bureaus and even offers automatic credit line reviews. Basically, if you can use this card responsibly, your credit limit can go up in as little as 6 months and eventually make you eligible to upgrade to a new unsecured card.

    U.S. Bank Altitude Go Secured Visa Card

    Best for Dining Rewards

    Key Features

    • No annual fee
    • Rewards dining

    The U.S. Bank Altitude Go Secured Visa Credit Card is one of the few secured cards that offers pretty good rewards returns. With special reward points for all dining, it’s a no brainer for foodies looking to build credit.

    U.S. Bank Altitude Go Secured Visa Card

    Annual Cost

    $0

    Regular APR

    25.99% variable APR

    Reward Rate

    1x-4x points per $1

    Foreign Transaction Fee

    N/A

    Credit Score

    Poor to Average Credit (300 to 629)

    More Information About U.S. Bank Altitude Go Secured Visa Card

    The U.S. Bank Altitude Go Secured Visa Card is a good option for foodies looking to build credit and enjoy rewards at the same time.

    The U.S. Bank Altitude Go Secured Visa Card offers 4x points on dining, takeout, and restaurant delivery, 2x points on grocery stores, gas stations, and streaming services, and 1x points on all other services. Reward points are scarce enough with secured cards, but these really are some of the best on the market.

    It is worth noting that you need 2,500 points before you can redeem them as cash or a statement credit. However, you can use them in smaller amounts to purchase merchandise and gift cards on the U.S. Bank rewards website.

    So if the upside is the rewards, the downside is the large minimum deposit. The U.S. Bank Altitude Go Secured card requires a refundable security deposit between $300 to $5,000. Many other cards have much lower minimums like $49, so the idea of having to hand over $300 is difficult to stomach.

    With these high deposits, however, come high credit limits. It’s hard to think of someone who would have $5,000 to hand over for a deposit, but if they do, they’ll have a $5,000 credit limit– high for a secured card.

    Right now, you also get $15 for an annual streaming service (after 11 months of paying for that streaming service on the card.) It’s kind of a random perk, but we’ll always take free Netflix.

    Finally, U.S. Bank does report to all three credit bureaus and allows card members to upgrade their card to an unsecured credit card after they’ve proven their credit worthiness.

    Types of Starter Credit Card

    There are three types of starter credit cards: secured cards, student cards, and unsecured starter cards. Each category has its own eligibility requirements, perks and deficits.

    Secured Credit Card

    Secured credit cards require a security deposit in order to obtain a credit line. This deposit acts as collateral that protects the card issuer in the case of missed payments or late payment fees.

    Often this deposit amount matches your credit limit. Because of this, the credit line is often pretty small — around $200 to $500.

    Secured credit cards are good options for people with bad or limited credit history because they rarely require a specific credit score and can help you build credit. They do however often have high interest rates and payment fees, so make sure to pay everything on time.

    The end goal of a secured card is moving on to a traditional credit card. Some secured card issuers allow you to upgrade your card once you’ve proven your creditworthiness. We especially like these cards because they help you maintain your open credit history.

    When you close your secured credit card account, you will receive your full deposit back–assuming you didn’t lose any money on late payments or fees.

    Student Credit Card

    Student credit cards are cards offered exclusively to enrolled U.S. college students.

    To apply, you have to give information like your school, major, and graduation year. You also have to prove that you have an independent income. Normally this income doesn’t have to be much, it just has to be yours.

    The APR on student credit cards is often high, and credit limits are normally low. However, these cards do come with lower credit and income requirements than traditional cards, making them a great option for students when used responsibly.

    Unsecured Starter Credit Card

    Unsecured starter credit cards (also called alternative credit cards) take more into account than just your credit score.

    Besides your credit history, they’ll consider your employment, income, savings, expenses, and more. This normally allows more people to qualify for an open credit line.

    It does come with a bigger risk for the card issuers so these cards normally have higher interest rates, increased fees, and lower credit limits.

    What to Look for in a Starter Credit Card?

    Picking the best starter credit card for you can be difficult, so here are a few things that we think you should look for: reports to three credit bureaus, low costs, low APR, possibility for higher credit limit and other rewards and perks.

    Reports to All three Credit bureaus

    This first one is a little obvious, but only because it’s so important. Not all starter credit options report to all three credit bureaus and since the goal of a starter credit card is to build up your credit history, it’s an important box to check.

    Low Costs

    The next point to compare is how much this line of credit is going to cost you. Most starter cards have an annual fee — though a few of our favorites don’t — and other fees like foreign transaction fees. Starter cards are also notorious for having high penalty fees, so understanding the fee structure before you sign up can save you a lot in the long run.

    Low APR

    The APR of a credit card is only important if you choose to carry a balance. We recommend that you pay off your balance each month so that you don’t have to pay interest.

    Starter credit cards often have high APRs because you’re considered more of a risk to card issuers. Some cards also offer different types of APRs for different types of transactions like balance transfers (moving debt to this card), cash advances (withdrawing cash at the ATM), or penalty APRs.

    Understanding these APRs upfront and picking the best one for your spending habits can help you keep track of your finances before it’s too late.

    Upgrades to a Better Credit Line with Same Issuer

    Since the goal of a starter credit card is to move on to bigger and better things, it’s nice if your current credit card issuer can upgrade. Normally this comes after you’ve proven that you’re responsible using your current card.

    Upgrading with the same provider is a nice perk because it allows you to maintain your open line of credit–one of the metrics used to calculate your FICO credit score.

    Rewards and Perks

    For the most part, we think you should ignore the rewards on a starter credit card. The point of the card isn’t to build your rewards but your credit so focus on the above stuff first.

    That being said, it’s a nice bonus if you can get it. Some credit cards will reward you when you buy things in specific categories, or some just reward you on every purchase. Depending on your spending habits, these rewards can add up.

    Again, this should be your last consideration, but it is a fun one.

    How to get a Credit Card with No Credit

    Nowadays, getting a credit card can be as simple as applying online from the comfort of your couch. Having no credit means you’ll probably get a card with high interest rates or even a security deposit, but applying is still pretty straightforward.

    Once you’ve found the card you’d like, you simply need to apply. You can normally apply online or if it’s through a local bank, you can also head to the brick-and-mortar location.

    It’s worth remembering that applying for a credit card often involves a hard credit pull which can affect your credit score. Lots of credit card issuers now offer users the chance to prequalify for the card. Prequalifying means you know whether or not you’ll be approved without a hard credit pull. If your credit is low or non-existent, this is a good option to understand your choices without affecting your credit score.

    In most cases to actually apply, you’ll then need to provide your social security number, US mailing address, and proof of an open checking or savings account. Other requirements depend on card type. For example, for a student card, you’ll need proof of enrollment in a US college or university, your expected graduation year, and proof of income of some kind. On the other hand, a secured card will require you to provide your cash deposit upfront and a unsecured starter card might ask for information on your employment and/or housing payments.

    Once you apply, you should hear whether you’ve been approved quickly–sometimes in a few minutes! Then if approved, you’ll receive the card in the mail and be good to go earn a new credit score.

    Alternatives to a Credit Card

    If you feel like a credit card just isn’t for you, there are a couple of other options out there.

    Debit Cards

    A debit card is a pretty normal alternative to a credit card. A debit card works by taking money from your actual checking account. It’s nice because you don’t run the risk of racking up debt since you can only spend the money in your account.

    Debit accounts don’t have the same fraud protection as many credit cards, so there is a risk there. They also do not report to any credit bureaus, so it’s not an option to help you build credit.

    Prepaid Cards

    A prepaid card is just what it sounds like: it’s a card preloaded with money. You’re limited to the money that you have put on the card. On the plus side, prepaid cards limit overspending and are better protection than just carrying around cash, but they also often have large fees and require you to plan ahead for your expenses. These cards do not report to the three main credit bureaus and will not help you build your credit score.

    Charge Cards

    A charge card is a lot like a credit card except you have to pay it off in full every month. Normally charge cards don’t have a credit limit. This sounds awesome, but at the end of the month, you’re on the hook for everything you’ve purchased, so it can be dangerous.

    A charge card does report to the credit bureaus, so it will help you build credit. However, they often have heavy fees if you miss a payment. Plus, they require excellent credit, so they won’t be an option for everyone.

    Personal Loan

    A personal loan might be another option if you don’t want or can’t get a credit card. Interest rates for personal loans are often lower than starter credit cards, and you have a fixed payment schedule.

    The downside of personal loans is the lack of flexibility–you normally have to take a lump sum of money out at one time. This works well if you need money for a home improvement project like painting your home but less well for everyday purchases.

    Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) About Starter Credit Cards

    People looking to establish credit by applying for a credit card likely have a lot of questions about the best ones on the market. We’ve rounded up the answer to the most commonly asked questions to help in the search.

    Can I Get a Credit Card With No Credit?

    Yes, it is possible to get a credit card with no credit. You will, however, be limited in your options.

    A secured credit card that has a required security deposit might be a good option to start. Or, if you’re a student, you can try for a student credit card.

    You should be able to get a card; however, be warned that you’ll have high APRs and low credit limits, so make sure to use the card responsibly.

    How Can I Start Building Credit?

    Getting a credit card is a great first step to start building credit. Your FICO credit score is calculated based on your amounts owed, payment history, length of credit history, and your credit mix. You don’t have any of these without having an open line of credit. 

    Once you have a card, it’s important to use it responsibly. Here are some ways to make sure you’re using your card responsibly and building your credit:

    1. Pay on time
    2. Aim to use less than 30% of your available credit 
    3. Keep you credit line open for a decent length of time 
    4. Monitor your credit card. 

    If you follow these steps, you should see your credit grow. Looking for more information? Check out our 9 Smart Moves that will Raise Your Credit Score

    How Do I Open a Credit Card?

    Opening a credit card is pretty simple in the online age. You can go to your local bank or apply online. You simply fill out an application with stuff like your social security number, mailing address, and proof of income. From there, the credit card issuer will do a credit check and see if you’re eligible for their card. Normally, this process has a quick turn around and you can be approved or denied quickly.

    What Is a Beginner Credit Card?

    A beginner credit card or starter credit card is a card that allows people with no or limited credit history to qualify. The card might require a security deposit, or they might evaluate your creditworthiness from something besides your credit score. No matter which type of card you choose, starter cards normally have high interest rates and low credit limits.

    Contributor Whitney Hansen covers banking, credit cards and investing for The Penny Hoarder. She also writes on other personal finance topics.


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    whit.hansen130@gmail.com (Whitney Hansen)

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  • Fed’s Waller says market has overreacted to consumer inflation data: ‘We’ve got a long, long way to go’

    Fed’s Waller says market has overreacted to consumer inflation data: ‘We’ve got a long, long way to go’

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    Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said Sunday that financial markets seem to have overreacted to the softer-than-expected October consumer price inflation data last week.

    “It was just one data point,” Waller said, in a conversation in Sydney, Australia, sponsored by UBS.

    “The market seems to have gotten way out in front over this one CPI report. Everybody should just take a deep breath, calm down. We’ve got a ways to go ” Waller said.

    Investors cheered the soft CPI print, released Thursday, driving stocks up to their best week since June. The S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +0.92%

    closed 5.9% higher for the week.

    The data showed that the yearly rate of consumer inflation fell to 7.7% from 8.2%, marking the lowest level since January. Inflation had peaked at a nearly 41-year high of 9.1% in June.

    Waller said it was good there was some evidence that inflation was coming down, but noted that there were other times over the past year where it looked like inflation was turning lower.

    “We’re going to see a continued run of this kind of behavior and inflation slowly starting to come down, before we really start thinking about taking our foot off the brakes here,” Waller said.

    “We’ve got a long, long way to go to get inflation down. Rates are going keep going up and they are going to stay high for awhile until we see this inflation get down closer to our target,” he added.

    The Fed is focused on how high rates need to get to bring inflation down, and that will depend solely on inflation, he said.

    Waller said “the worst thing” the Fed could do was stop raising rates only to have inflation explode.

    The 7.7% inflation rate seen in October “is enormous,” he added.

    The Fed signaled at its last meeting earlier this month that it might slow down the pace of its rate hikes in coming meetings.

    The central bank has boosted rates by almost 400 basis points since March, including four straight 0.75-percentage-point hikes that had been almost unheard of prior to this year.

    “We’re looking at moving in paces of potentially 50 [basis points] at the next meeting or the next meeting after that,” Waller said.

    The Fed will hold its next meeting on Dec. 13-14, and then again on Jan. 31-Feb. 1.

    At the same time, Powell said the Fed was likely to raise rates above the 4.5%-4.75% terminal rate that they had previously expected.

    “The signal was ‘quit paying attention to the pace and start paying attention to where the endpoint is going to be,’” Waller said.

    In the wake of the CPI report, investors who trade fed funds futures contracts see the Fed’s terminal rate at 5%-5.25% next spring and then quickly falling back to 4.25%-4.5% by November. That’s well below the levels prior to the CPI data.

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  • FTX bankruptcy is ‘somebody running a company that’s just dumb-as-f___ing greedy,’ says Mark Cuban

    FTX bankruptcy is ‘somebody running a company that’s just dumb-as-f___ing greedy,’ says Mark Cuban

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    Billionaire Dallas Maverick’s owner Mark Cuban recently offered his perspective on the implosion of crypto platform FTX late this week.

    ‘That’s somebody running a company that’s just dumb-as-fucking greedy.’


    — Mark Cuban

    Cuban, speaking on Friday at a conference in Washington, D.C. hosted by Sports Business Journal, shared the view that avarice was at the root of the downfall of one-time crypto darling Sam Bankman-Fried, whose firm FTX Group just filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy.

    “So what does Sam Bankman [Fried] do, he’s just–‘gimme more, gimme more, gimme more.’ So I’m gonna borrow money, loan it to an affiliated company and hope and pretend to myself that the FTT tokens that are in there on my balance sheet are gonna to sustain their value.”

    Check out: Mark Cuban says buying metaverse real estate is ‘the dumbest shit ever

    FTX’s collapse marks a stunning turnabout for a company, which was once valued at $26 billion, and whose founder, Bankman-Fried was viewed by many in the crypto industry as a venerable actor in the Wild West of digital exchanges.

    On Thursday, the 30-year-old entrepreneur tweeted: “I f—ked up, and should have done better,” referencing the collapse of his exchange.

    Embattled FTX, short billions of dollars, sought bankruptcy protection after the exchange experienced the crypto equivalent of a bank run. FTX, an affiliated hedge fund Alameda Research, and dozens of other related companies also filed a bankruptcy petition in Delaware on Friday morning. Boasting a nearly $16 billion fortune recently, Sam Bankman Fried’s net worth had all but evaporated in the wake of the FTX implosion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

    The price of FTX’s native token FTT went down about 88.8% over the past seven days to around $2.74, according to CoinMarketCap data.

    The U.S. Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission are looking into the crypto exchange to determine whether any criminal activity or securities offenses were committed.

    Regulators and are examining whether FTX used customer deposits to fund bets at Alameda Research, a no-no in traditional markets, according to reports.

    Cuban, who is one of the stars of the investing show “Shark Tank” and owns the NBA’s Dallas Mavericks, is a big investor in crypto and blockchain-related platforms. According to a CNBC report, he has said that 80% of his investments that aren’t on Shark Tank are crypto-centric.

    See: Tom Brady, Steph Curry and Kevin O’Leary set to lose big from FTX bankruptcy filing

    For his part, Cuban is part of a class-action lawsuit accused of misleading investors into signing up for accounts with crypto platform Voyager Digital, which filed for bankruptcy in July. The suit alleges that Cuban touted his support for Voyager and referred to it “as close to risk-free as you’re gonna get in the crypto universe.”

    Cuban mentioned Voyager in his Friday interview. Representatives for the billionaire investor didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

    The Mavericks owner took to Twitter on Saturday to say that the crypto implosions “have been banking blowups. Lending to the wrong entity, misvaluations of collateral, arrogant arbs, followed by depositor runs.”

    Cuban’s net worth is $4.6 billion, according to Forbes.

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  • Investors may be whistling past the graveyard of a recession with latest rally in stocks

    Investors may be whistling past the graveyard of a recession with latest rally in stocks

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    Investors feeling giddy about last week’s sharp rally for stocks might want to give a listen to Tom Waits’ song, “Whistlin’ Past the Graveyard” from 1978, to sober up for the dangers that still lurk ahead.

    The surge in stocks catapulted the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +0.92%

    almost back to the 4,000 mark on Friday, also lifting it to the biggest weekly gain in roughly five months, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Investors showed courage on signs of a slight slowing of inflation, but the fortitude also comes as a drearier backdrop for investors has been unfolding in plain sight. Massive layoffs at big technology companies, the dramatic implosion of crypto-exchange FTX, and the day-to-day pain of high inflation and skyrocketing borrowing on businesses and households are all taking a toll.

    “We are not convinced this is the beginning of a new bull market,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CRFA Research. “We believe that we are headed for recession. That has not been factored into earnings estimates and, therefore, share prices.”

    Stovall also said the stock market has yet to see the “traditional shakeout of confidence capitulation that we typically see that marks the end of the bear markets.”

    From Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    +1.03%

    to Lyft Inc.
    LYFT,
    +12.59%

    to Netflix Inc.
    NFLX,
    +5.51%

    there is a wave of major technology companies resorting to layoffs this fall, a threat that could sweep other sectors of the economy if a recession materializes.

    Yet, information technology stocks in the S&P 500 jumped 10% for the week, while financials, which stand to benefit from higher interest rates, rose 5.7%, according to FactSet.

    That could reflect optimism about the odds of a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes in the months ahead, after sharp rate rises helped to undermine valuations and pull tech stocks dramatically lower in the past year. However, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, and other Fed officials since the October inflation reading on Thursday have reiterated the need to keep rates high, until 7.7% annual rate finds a clearer path to the central bank’s 2% target.

    The stock-market rally also might suggest that investors view continued mayhem in the crypto sector as contained, despite bitcoin
    BTCUSD,
    +0.42%

    trading near its lowest level in two years and the shocking collapse in recent days of FTX, once the world’s third-largest cryptocurrency exchange.

    Read: FTX’s fall: ‘This is the worst’ moment for crypto this year. Here’s what you should know.

    What happens to stocks in recessions

    Blows to the American economy rarely have been good for stocks. A look at seven past recessions, starting in 1969, shows declines for the S&P 500 as more typical than gains, with its most violent drop occurring in the 2007-2009 recession.

    The more than 37% drop of the S&P 500 from 2007 to 2009 was the worst of its kind in a recession since the late 1960s.


    Refinitiv data, London Stock Exchange Group

    While a looming U.S. recession isn’t a foregone conclusion, CEOs of America’s biggest banks have been warning about the risks for months. JP Morgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon said in October that a “tough recession” could drag the S&P 500 down another 20%, even though he also said consumers were doing fine, for now.

    Still, the steady stream of warnings about the recession odds have left many Americans confused and wondering if one can even happen without an increase in job losses.

    Big moves lately in stocks also have been hard to decode, given the economy was shocked back to life in the pandemic by trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus and easy-money policies from the Fed that are now being reversed.

    “What I think goes unnoticed, certainly by the average person, is that these moves are not normal,” said Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, about stock swings this week.

    “It’s all about who is positioned how — and for what — and how much leverage they’re employing,” Martin told MarketWatch. “You get these outsized moves when people are offside.”

    Here’s a view of the sharp trajectory upward of the S&P 500 since 2010, but also its dramatic drop this year.

    Sharp rise of S&P 500 since 2010, but recent fall


    Refinitiv Datastream

    While Martin isn’t ruling out the potential for a seasonal “Santa Claus” rally heading into year-end, he worries about a potential leg lower for stocks next year, particularly with the Fed likely to keep interest rates high.

    “Certainly what’s being priced in now is either no recession or a very, very mild recession,” he said .

    However, Kristina Hooper, Invesco’s chief global market strategist, said the overarching story might be one of stocks sniffing out the first steps in a path to economic recovery, and the Fed potentially stopping its rate hikes at a lower “terminal” rate than expected.

    The Fed increased its benchmark interest rate to a 3.75% to 4% range in November, the highest in 15 years, but also has signaled it could top out near 4.5% to 4.75%.

    “If often happens that you can see stocks do well, in a less-than-good economic environment,” she said.

    The S&P 500 rose 4.2% for the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.10%

    gained 5.9%, posting its best weekly gain since late June, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Nasdaq Composite Index shot up 8.1% for the week, its best weekly stretch in seven months.

    In U.S. economic data, investors will get an update on household debt on Tuesday, retail sales and homebuilder data on Wednesday, followed by jobless claims and housing starts data Thursday. Friday brings existing home sales.

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