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Tag: COP28

  • Farmer Protests in Europe Foreshadow Dark Future for American Farmers

    Farmer Protests in Europe Foreshadow Dark Future for American Farmers

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    Tractor on farm track by Peter Holmes, via Wikimedia Commons

    The progressive stranglehold of “climate change” policy in Europe has taken its toll on their farmers, and they have reached a critical breaking point. A breaking point that could be coming to America’s heartland in the very near future.

    Europe has had a simmering level of discontent among its farming community over the last few years, with tensions in some countries starting to boil over as farmers intensify protests throughout the continent. Major highways have been blocked by tractors, bales of hay lit on fire, and access to airports and sea ports restricted by the protesters.

    The increase in irritation from European farmers comes as the European Union Summit is set to commence. Farmers from Belgium to Italy and France to Spain are hopeful their voices will be considered as European leaders meet to plot new “climate change” regulations.

    Enough is enough

    European farmers are making waves across the continent as they flex their agricultural muscles to catch the attention of their elected leaders. French farmers recently blocked highways in and out of Paris with tractors and set hay bales on fire to block access to Toulouse-Blagnac Airport.

    Belgian farmers blocked roads to the Zeebrugge container port. Farmers marched in the streets of Milan and Rome in Italy.

    Last year, German and Polish farmers protested, and Spanish farmers have pledged to add their voices to the mix starting in February. Sporting protest signs with slogans such as: “Minister for awhile, Farmer for Life” these farmers are at their limit with the European Union bureaucrats.

    Why all the anger from seemingly mild-mannered European farmers? They argue that the EU’s oppressive regulations primarily aimed at climate change initiatives have made it almost impossible to thrive as a farmer in Europe and stay in business at all.

    One such regulation is the requirement to devote 4% of their farmland to “non-productive” areas so “nature can recover” to receive subsidies from the EU. The requirement to leave land fallow to receive subsidies has put many farmers out of business, with rumors of some feeling so desperate they’ve resorted to suicide.

    Where would such a nonsensical restriction come from?

    RELATED: China Buying American Farms Is So Dangerous Even Senator John Fetterman Gets It

    Another dangerous meeting

    Last year, the 28th Conference of the Parties, otherwise known as the COP28, met in Dubai. It is an annual event where world leaders meet to discuss policy changes that could be made to avert climate disasters. The meetings are often minimally covered by mainstream media.

    Unfortunately, these extravagant get-togethers of the world elite tend to be where some of the worst ideas are born and then subsequently dropped into government policies affecting the unsuspecting masses. Last year’s event, in particular, showcased what they dubbed as “1.5 Celcius-aligned menus” focused on plant-based foods to show the importance of “climate-friendly food and farming.”

    The COP28 Food Systems Lead Mariam Almheiri said of the menus:

    “To achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, to keep 1.5C within reach, we must address the connection between global food systems, agriculture, and the climate.”

    Don’t be fooled by the eloquence of the line; when Mr. Almheiri mentions global food systems, he’s talking about farms and ranches. The United States naturally was in attendance last year and was one of over 150 countries that agreed to implement policies to align with the climate goals of the COP28, including:

    “…simultaneously reduce the harmful environmental impacts of agriculture and to maximize the sector’s climate benefits.”

    Europe attempts to “reduce the harmful” impacts of farming by tying subsidies to required fallow farmland. The question is, how is the United States pushing forward?

    It’s already here

    Late last year, 12 state agriculture commissioners wrote a letter to six U.S. banks raising concerns about financial decisions the banks were making tied to climate change initiatives that negatively impact American farmers and ranchers. The six banks in question are a part of the United Nations-backed Net-Zero Banking Alliance or NZBA.

    The NZBA is “committed to financing ambitious climate action” with the intent that banks make financial decisions based on climate initiatives.

    The six U.S. banks are:

    • Bank of America
    • Citigroup
    • Goldman Sachs
    • JPMorgan Chase
    • Morgan Stanley
    • Wells Fargo

    RELATED: Mega Investment Firm BlackRock Plans Layoffs as Controversial ‘ESG’ Finally Faces Objection

    In the letter, the commissioners write:

    “Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture requires a complete overhaul of on-farm infrastructure – one of the goals of the NZBA.”

    They go on to illustrate the damage the NZBA will inflict on American agriculture:

    “Proposed net-zero roadmaps describe dramatic, impractical, and costly changes to American farming and ranching operations such as switching to electric machinery and equipment; installing on-site solar panels and wind turbines; moving to organic fertilizer; altering rice-field irrigation systems; and slashing U.S. ruminant meat consumption in half, costing millions in livestock jobs.”

    That last bit should sound familiar. It sounds a lot like pushing plant-based foods like COP28 or, dare I say it…eating bugs instead of beef…

    Boring but important

    If it’s not the banks that will bring American farmers to the streets in protest, it might be Congress. This year, Congress has to pass an updated Farm bill.

    The Farm Bill encompasses all manner of non-sexy policy items related to SNAP benefits and farm subsidies. These farm subsidies, similar to those in Europe, are increasingly tied to climate initiatives.

    Just as in Europe, the stranglehold on America’s heartland isn’t happening overnight, but in small, tiny moves throughout many years thanks to the persistent push of climate activists and international pressure from progressive European leaders. While the mainstream media brushes aside claims that European aristocrats and climate activists want to make us eat bug burgers and that techno-elites like Bill Gates gobbling up the largest amount of privately owned farmland in the country isn’t something to be concerned about, banks and congressmen are slowly encroaching on American ranchers and farmers to perpetuate their dangerous climate ideology.

    RELATED: Conservatives Are Going Crazy Over This Viral Protest Song By A Virginia Farmer

    Last October, the Department of Agriculture’s Household Food Security report revealed that one in eight households in America had experienced food insecurity in the previous calendar year. With that, I’ll leave you with this final question – what is the end goal of starving out Europeans and Americans by slowly killing off farming and ranching?

    Is it really about climate change, or is it about something else entirely?

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    USAF Retired, Bronze Star recipient, outspoken veteran advocate. Hot mess mom to two monsters and wife to equal parts… More about Kathleen J. Anderson

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    Kathleen J. Anderson

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  • The price tag of COP28’s renewable energy pledge

    The price tag of COP28’s renewable energy pledge

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    COP28 wrapped on Wednesday with officials touting a pledge to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity by 2030. It even came twinned with a vow to double global energy-saving efforts over the same period.

    Predictably, the promise came with some high-flying rhetoric.

    COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber, the oil CEO helming the talks, claimed the goal “aligns more countries and companies around the North Star of keeping 1.5 degrees Celsius within reach than ever before,” referring to the Paris Agreement target for limiting global warming.

    But are the flashy pledges as ambitious as they sound? POLITICO crunched the numbers and here’s what we found: While the renewable energy target is well within reach, progress on energy efficiency has been a lot slower.

    Countries would need to cut their energy intensity — the amount of energy used per unit of GDP — at least twice as fast between 2023 and 2030 as they did in previous years, which calls for major investments and substantial changes in individual behavior.

    To achieve the renewable target, countries will need to bet big on solar and wind. These two technologies are set to account for around 90 percent of new capacity additions, due to their increasing availability and decreasing costs.

    Improving energy efficiency is a more complex challenge. It will require action on multiple fronts, from housing and construction to mobility and consumer behavior.

    Progress has been unequal and largely concentrated in richer countries, which also tend to attract most of the private investment in green technology. Good headway has been made in some areas like the electrification of transport, while building renovation is lagging.

    If world leaders are serious about these pledges, they’ll have to put their money where their mouth is (or convince private investors to do so) and mobilize nearly $30 trillion in green investment between now and 2030, with buildings and the industrial sector taking the lion’s share of these funds.

    Pricey, perhaps, but still probably cheaper than environmental catastrophe.

    Karl Mathiesen contributed reporting.

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    Giovanna Coi

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  • Protests At UN Climate Talks See ‘Shocking Level Of Censorship’

    Protests At UN Climate Talks See ‘Shocking Level Of Censorship’

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    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Activists designated Saturday a day of protest at the COP28 summit in Dubai. But the rules of the game in the tightly controlled United Arab Emirates at the site supervised by the United Nations meant sharp restrictions on what demonstrators could say, where they could walk and what their signs could portray.

    At times, the controls bordered on the absurd.

    A small group of demonstrators protesting the detention of activists — one from Egypt and two from the UAE — was not allowed to hold up signs bearing their names. A late afternoon demonstration of around 500 people, the largest seen at the climate conference, couldn’t go beyond the U.N.-governed Blue Zone in this autocratic nation. And their calls for a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip couldn’t name the parties involved.

    “It is a shocking level of censorship in a space that had been guaranteed to have basic freedoms protected like freedom of expression, assembly and association,” Joey Shea, a researcher at Human Rights Watch focused on the Emirates, told The Associated Press after their restricted demonstration.

    Pro-Palestinian protesters who were calling for a cease-fire and climate justice were told they could not say “from the river to the sea,” a slogan prohibited by the U.N. over the days of COP28.

    In the aftermath of a brutal Hamas attack on Israel in October and the subsequent Israeli bombing and ground offensive in the Gaza Strip, that phrase has been used at pro-Palestinian rallies to call for single state on the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean. Some Jews hear a clear demand for Israel’s destruction in the call.

    Protesters got around rules banning national flags by instead wearing keffiyeh scarves and holding signs depicting watermelons to show their support for the Palestinians.

    Protestor Dylan Hamilton of Scotland said it remained important for demonstrators to cry out their grievances, even if they sounded like a cacophony of concerns ranging from climate change, the war or Indigenous rights.

    “It’s essential to remind negotiators what they are negotiating about,” Hamilton said. “It’s trying to remind people to care about people you’ll never meet.”

    Despite the restrictions, activists protesting for a cease-fire in Gaza called the action historic due to its size.

    “I don’t want to look back one day where a Palestinian can’t remember what their history and their culture used to look like, because that’s exactly what happened to us in Mexico,” climate activist Isavela Lopez said. “I’m here to say to end with the colonial powers and with the white supremacy.”

    Many climate activists point to the same causes for today’s climate crisis.

    Typically, COP summits see mass demonstrations of tens of thousands of people outside of the Blue Zone. But given the UAE’s rules, the only place where activists can protest is inside that U.N.-controlled space, which has its own tight restrictions on speech.

    Just before the demonstration about the detained activists, organized by Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, protesters had to fold over signs bearing the names of the detainees — even after they already had crossed out messages about them. The order came roughly 10 minutes before the protest was due to start from the U.N., which said it could not guarantee the security of the demonstration, Shea said.

    While speaking during the protest, Shea also had to avoid naming the Emirates and Egypt as part of the U.N.’s rules.

    “The absurdity of what happened at this action today speaks volumes,” she said.

    The Emirati government, in response to questions from the AP about the detainees protest, said it “does not comment on individual cases following judicial sentences.”

    “In the spirit of inclusivity, peaceful assemblies in designated areas have been and continue to be welcomed,” the statement said. “We remain dedicated to fostering dialogue and understanding as we work together at COP28 to deliver impactful solutions for accelerating climate action.”

    Demonstrators carried signs bearing the image of Emirati activist Ahmed Mansoor and Egyptian pro-democracy activist Alaa Abdel-Fattah.

    Mansoor, the recipient of the Martin Ennals Award for Human Rights Defenders in 2015, repeatedly drew the ire of authorities in the United Arab Emirates by calling for a free press and democratic freedoms in the autocratic federation of seven sheikhdoms. He was targeted with Israeli spyware on his iPhone in 2016 likely deployed by the Emirati government ahead of his 2017 arrest and sentencing to 10 years in prison over his activism.

    Abdel-Fattah, who rose to prominence during the 2011 pro-democracy Arab Spring uprisings, became a central focus of demonstrators during last year’s COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, as he had stopped eating and drinking water to protest his detention. He has spent most of the past decade in prison because of his criticism of Egypt’s rulers.

    Since 2013, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi’s government has cracked down on dissidents and critics, jailing thousands, virtually banning protests and monitoring social media. El-Sissi has not released Abdel-Fattah despite him receiving British citizenship while imprisoned and interventions on his behalf from world leaders, including U.S. President Joe Biden.

    Demonstrators also held up the image of Mohamed al-Siddiq, another Emirati detained as part of the crackdown.

    The detainees protest had been scheduled to take place days earlier, but negotiations with U.N. officials dragged on — likely due to the sensitivity of even mentioning the detainees’ names in the country.

    Meanwhile, protesters briefly staged a sit-in at OPEC’s stand over a leaked letter reportedly calling on cartel member states to reject any attempt to include a phase-down of fossil fuels in any text at the summit.

    “It’s like having, you know, a convention on fighting the tobacco industry and having the tobacco industry present in a negotiation. That is not okay,” campaigner Nicholas Haeringer said. “It’s like having a fox in the henhouse. And to be honest with you guys, I think at some point we will run out of analogies before these guys run out of oil.”

    Associated Press journalists Peter Dejong, Lujain Jo and Malak Harb contributed to this report.

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  • Azerbaijan gets nod to host COP29 climate summit 

    Azerbaijan gets nod to host COP29 climate summit 

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    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Next year’s COP29 climate summit is set to take place in oil-rich Azerbaijan after Eastern European countries resolved a political deadlock on Saturday. 

    Geopolitical tensions had left the 2024 conference in limbo for months, with Russia blocking EU countries from hosting and feuding neighbors Armenia and Azerbaijan vetoing each other. 

    But after Armenia and Bulgaria formally withdrew their bids earlier this week, the 23-country Eastern European group backed Azerbaijan during a meeting on Saturday, Bulgarian Environment Minister Julian Popov told POLITICO. 

    Earlier on Saturday, Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan’s minister of ecology and natural resources, said in a speech that he was “delighted” to announce that there was overall consensus on Azerbaijan’s candidacy to host COP29. 

    “We are very grateful to all countries, in particular to the Eastern European group and the host United Arab Emirates for their support,” said Babayev. “We are committed to working inclusively and collaboratively with everyone to ensure the success of COP29. May COP28 lead us forward toward a more sustainable and secure future for all.”

    Baku’s bid will still have to be voted on by the entire COP plenary, but that is usually a formality. 

    If confirmed, next year’s summit will once again take place in a major oil- and gas-producing country.

    The UAE, host of this year’s COP28, is the world’s seventh-largest oil producer. Fossil fuels make up more than 90 percent of Azerbaijan’s exports. And the host of the COP30 climate talks in 2025, Brazil, has just announced it would join the OPEC+ oil cartel.

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    Zia Weise and Sara Schonhardt

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  • Saudi-led fight against COP28 deal shows ‘panic,’ German climate envoy says

    Saudi-led fight against COP28 deal shows ‘panic,’ German climate envoy says

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    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The full-scale resistance that oil-exporting countries are mounting against a COP28 deal to end fossil fuel use is a sign of “panic,” said Germany’s climate envoy. 

    Last week, as ministers descended on the U.N. climate talks in Dubai, the OPEC cartel of oil-rich nations urged its 13 members, including Saudi Arabia, and OPEC+ countries to reject any agreement that aimed to slash fossil fuel production. The appeal sparked contentious debate over the weekend as officials tried to finalize a deal before COP28’s scheduled end on Tuesday. 

    But to Jennifer Morgan, Germany’s special envoy for international climate action, the letter was also a rare admission from the oil industry that these climate talks pose an existential threat to its business model.

    “They obviously felt they needed to engage,” Morgan said in response to a question from POLITICO while speaking to a group of reporters. “Whether it was a bit of panic, whether it was a bit of realization of how far the discussions are. That’s my take on that.”

    Fossil fuels have landed at this year’s climate talks in a big way after decades where they were largely absent from the negotiations, despite being the driving force behind global warming. 

    But as the impacts of climate change have accelerated and alternative options such as wind and solar have become more affordable, a growing number of countries are drawing attention to the need to wean their economies off oil, gas and coal. 

    That push is proving to be among the most contentious issues at COP28, which is taking place in a region that is home to some of the world’s top oil and gas producers. 

    As the talks speed toward a close, officials are working to craft language that can get support from the nearly 200 countries participating in the process. It will be up to the UAE presidency of COP28 to attempt to find consensus. Draft text over the weekend offered several options for a pledge to “phase out” fossil fuels, all with various caveats.

    But several people close to the talks said that Saudi Arabia and the Arab group of negotiators have resisted such language, including storming out of one meeting room, according to one observer of the process granted anonymity to discuss the closed-door talks. 

    “We have raised our consistent concerns with attempts to attack energy sources instead of emissions,” Saudi Arabia’s Albara Tawfiq said during Sunday’s public session.

    His comments mirror remarks delivered on Saturday in Dubai by OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais. 

    “Our goal must be to reduce emissions, which is the core objective of the Paris Agreement, while ensuring energy security and universal access to affordable energy,” the OPEC secretariat posted on X, quoting Al Ghais and referencing the 2015 international climate accord to limit global warming. 

    Even before COP28 began, countries were aware that getting Saudi Arabia on board with supporting a fossil fuel phaseout would be supremely challenging. Oil remains the backbone of the Saudi economy, despite efforts to diversify.

    “We hope following this discussion, the presidency would be able to deal with that now that he has clearly heard from all the parties,” said Seve Paeniu, minister of finance and economic development for the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu. “It’s really now in the hands of the presidency.”

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    Sara Schonhardt and Karl Mathiesen

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  • John Kerry: US must get rid of ‘crazy’ oil subsidies

    John Kerry: US must get rid of ‘crazy’ oil subsidies

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    The United States must end “crazy” oil and gas subsidies to achieve its climate goals, but a stalled Congress is preventing President Joe Biden from taking action, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry told POLITICO.

    “The subsidies are crazy, and we have them still in the United States,” Kerry said in an interview with POLITICO’s Power Play podcast. “President Biden has said we’ve gotta get rid of these subsidies. But again … you have to legislate to do that and we’ve been pretty gridlocked in our country for a period of time.”

    As the U.S. heads into a presidential election year, Kerry said he hopes people will put aside “party labels” and “come together around good, common-sense solutions” to fight climate change. The U.S. diplomat, who is currently in Dubai for the COP28 summit, is preparing to welcome the U.S. Republican congressional delegation, slated to arrive in the United Arab Emirates later this week.

    Donald Trump, the American conservatives’ standard bearer and front-runner to win the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, has been notoriously skeptical on climate issues, even pulling the U.S. out of the Paris climate deal during his time in the White House.

    “I really look forward to meeting with the congressional delegation,” Kerry told POLITICO. “They have legitimate points of view about some ways to try to come at this problem. Not everybody has to attack it the same way.”

    Kerry also shrugged off COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber’s controversial remarks that there is “no science” behind demands for a fossil fuel phaseout. The comments, published by the Guardian, struck a chord with al-Jaber’s critics, who have long questioned whether the COP28 chief can credibly lead the climate talks given his other role as CEO of the UAE’s state-owned oil company, Adnoc.

    Al-Jaber’s comments may require “clarification,” Kerry told POLITICO, but he made it clear he is not withdrawing his long-standing support for the COP28 chief.

    “Look, he’s gotta decide how he wants to phrase it, but the bottom line is this COP needs to be committed to phasing out all unabated fossil fuel,” Kerry said. “That means we cannot allow the emissions to be going up for sure.”

    “I think he was saying that the science doesn’t dictate the methodology that you have to use,” he added. “You have to choose between many different ways of doing it.”

    As the COP28 host country, the UAE has also been under scrutiny for its role as a large oil producer and exporter, especially after leaked documents indicated the country planned to use the summit to push fossil fuel deals. 

    Kerry agreed the UAE must “cut [oil and gas production], and everybody needs to be reducing supply and demand.”

    “We all have to be part of hitting this goal of keeping the earth’s temperature limit to 1.5 degrees,” he said.

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    Anne McElvoy and Claudia Chiappa

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  • John Kerry warns against carbon capture’s ‘great facade’ as a climate cure-all

    John Kerry warns against carbon capture’s ‘great facade’ as a climate cure-all

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    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Some countries at the COP28 climate talks are lying about the potential for capturing the greenhouse gases fossil fuels emit, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry said.

    Kerry was speaking at an event on Friday evening on the sidelines of the U.N. COP28 climate talks in Dubai, where the nations of the world are wrangling over the draft of a pledge to end fossil fuel use.

    The deal has been forcefully opposed by fossil fuel-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia. Negotiators from Riyadh argue carbon pollution can be largely captured and buried using scrubbing technology that Kerry said remains largely unproven at the needed scale.

    “There are people here who want to just continue business as usual. And the great facade is: ‘Oh no, we’ll be able to capture everything,’” said Kerry, his voice hoarse from a chest cold. “No scientist tells me we can capture it all. Can’t do it. Can we capture some? Yes, and by the way, I’m for it.”

    Kerry said it was up to the gas industry “to show us they can capture all those emissions, to tell us whether it’s really going to be part of the future. But don’t lie to people and tell them it’s green. And don’t pretend to people that that’s the main alternative.”

    Kerry said the next few days of talks, which are scheduled to end Tuesday, would be “absolutely critical. Without any question whatsoever.”

    A draft text released on Friday by the United Arab Emirates government, which is hosting the conference, included several options for a deal between almost 200 countries to “phase out” fossil fuels — a phrase being pushed by small island states, the U.S. and the European Union. But it also included an option for no deal at all, which is the result many countries, including Saudi Arabia, China and Russia prefer.

    “I am concerned that not everyone is engaging in a constructive manner,” German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan said in a statement shared with reporters.

    Saudi negotiators have pushed for the deal to focus on the emissions that cause climate change, rather than the fuels that cause the emissions, UAE chief negotiator Hana Al Hashimi told reporters Saturday. That necessitates the use of carbon capture — but countries are divided over how much the technology can be used, versus the need to simply stamp out the use of the fuels.

    The EU is arguing for the deal at COP28 to include a stipulation that carbon capture and storage (CCS) only be used for the hardest sectors to cut out the use of fossil fuels, such as the manufacture of cement.

    “Make no mistake, we cannot CCS ourselves out of the problem,” said EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra at a press conference Friday, adding that carbon capture and storage was “a minor part of the solution space.”

    Advocates for a fossil fuel phase-out deal believe it will scare investors away from fossil fuel projects. “One thing I know to absolute certainty,” Kerry said, “we are not going to go back to the old energy paradigm, you can absolutely bank on that. We are not going back.”

    Zia Weise contributed reporting from Dubai.

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    Karl Mathiesen

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  • WTF is the ‘Global Stocktake’? We explain the ‘heart’ of COP28

    WTF is the ‘Global Stocktake’? We explain the ‘heart’ of COP28

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    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Now the real work starts. 

    The first few days of the COP28 climate conference featured so many lofty declarations and flashy promises that you’d be forgiven for asking what delegates are still doing here. But the main negotiations have only just gotten underway. 

    At the core of this year’s summit sits something called the “Global Stocktake,” often abbreviated to GST — a nondescript name that conceals its vital role in international climate efforts. 

    In short, it’s about drawing up a report card on where the world stands eight years after signing the Paris Agreement, and how countries plan to fix their inevitable shortcomings. That plan coming out of COP28 will help determine whether the world can stave off the worst impacts of climate change or careen toward unlivable temperatures. 

    German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan called the stocktake the “heart” of the Paris climate accord; Toeolesulusulu Cedric Schuster, chair of the Alliance of Small Island States, labeled it a “lifeline” for especially vulnerable countries like his native Samoa. 

    The outcome of this obscure process is also what high-ranking ministers will be haggling over when they arrive for the second week of COP28 — and what the United Arab Emirates hosts will be judged on in the end. 

    “What makes this COP unique as compared to the previous COPs? First and foremost, it’s the Global Stocktake,” EU lead negotiator Jacob Werksman told reporters on Monday. 

    So what is it? Let’s take a look. 

    What are we even talking about? 

    The Global Stocktake broadly refers to a thorough assessment of how much progress countries are making toward the Paris Agreement targets, which committed countries to limiting global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius and ideally to 1.5C compared to the pre-industrial era. 

    The process consists of three components. The first stage, gathering all the relevant information, began two years ago. The second phase, evaluating that data, ended this summer. 

    The final task — the response to this assessment — concludes at COP28. That’s the hard part.

    Under the Paris accord’s terms, countries have to conduct this exercise every five years. 

    Hang on, the assessment already happened? 

    Yup. You’ll sometimes hear that countries will conduct an assessment of their climate efforts while in Dubai, but the United Nations already published its report summarizing the findings in September — concluding that the world is falling short of its Paris goals. 

    “That assessment has been done, it is clear we are not on a track,” Morgan told a press conference in Dubai last week. With current efforts, she noted, “we will see a temperature rise of 2.5C to 2.9C.” 

    She added: “That is unimaginable.”

    Beyond 1.5C, climate impacts like extreme weather or sea-level rise get substantially worse. Scientists warn that overshooting that threshold risks triggering irreversible tipping points like dramatic polar ice loss, which would further exacerbate warming. 

    So what’s happening at COP28? 

    Negotiators in Dubai are discussing what countries should do with that report, which gave strict instructions to retain any hope of hitting the 1.5C target: First, cut 43 percent of greenhouse gas emissions this decade (compared to 2019 levels), then hit net-zero emissions by 2050. 

    But there are profound divisions over how to get there.  

    “The first component is taking stock of what the gaps are,” said Tom Evans, who tracks the stocktake negotiations in Dubai for think tank E3G. “Second, what do you do about these gaps? And that’s where the political flashpoints are.” 

    What could that response look like? 

    A lot of things, but the idea is for everyone from the Paris Agreement — that’s nearly 200 countries — to endorse a coherent plan by the summit’s end. 

    Again, not easy. 

    The document is expected to both look back at what went wrong and then look ahead with guidelines on how to remedy those shortcomings. That roadmap should include a climate wish list — everything from cutting emissions to preparing communities for climate change fallout to financing for both.

    So … words on a page. Does that even matter? 

    It does, for a few reasons. 

    First, the text will give clear directions to countries as they draw up their next climate action plans. The Paris Agreement requires governments to submit new plans by COP30, which takes place in Brazil in 2025. 

    Second, those words send a powerful signal to markets, local governments and more. If nearly 200 countries agree on a text that says a coal phaseout is necessary, investors will take the hint. 

    With the stocktake, “we have the opportunity to take a set of decisions … that finds the clarity that business leaders need to invest in the future,” Morgan said. 

    The outcome will also test the Paris accord’s integrity. These regular check-ins and the requirement to then update climate plans are meant to ensure everyone is upping their efforts over time. 

    “The effectiveness of the Paris Agreement is at stake,” Evans said. 

    And what do countries want? 

    The end result should set out what to do about planet-warming fossil fuels, as well as efforts to prepare for a warmer future and steps to ensure poorer countries have the resources to do that, as well. 

    “No one is trying to tear the whole thing down,” said Evans. 

    That doesn’t mean countries are close to an agreement. 

    Urgent calls for a fossil fuel “phaseout” — a much-debated term — are especially contentious. 

    Many developing countries say they need more financial support to back ambitious language on fossil fuels and other efforts to reduce emissions.

    German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan called the stocktake the “heart” of the Paris climate accord | Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Meanwhile, the EU, the U.S. and climate-vulnerable countries are trying to ensure new plans don’t exempt any industries and cover all greenhouse gasses, not just carbon dioxide — something China recently said it was on board with.

    Going in the other direction, several countries whose economies depend on oil and gas exports — Russia and Saudi Arabia among them — are trying to push for language that would allow for the continued use of fossil fuels. 

    What’s the UAE’s role here? 

    The UAE is running the show and must shepherd the stocktake to a conclusion. At some point, the officials in charge will have to produce a draft text for countries to accept or reject. 

    COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber — who, controversially also helms the UAE’s state-run oil giant — has repeatedly insisted he would push for the “most ambitious response possible” to the stocktake. But he has remained vague on what that might look like. 

    Still, Evans said, “They’re aware that it’s the centerpiece of their COP. The shine of those early pledges will fade, and they’ll need to produce something.” 

    How are the negotiations going? 

    There are already some rocky signs. 

    As of Monday evening, negotiators hadn’t produced a detailed draft text, despite spending some 10 hours talking behind closed doors on Sunday. 

    A text outlining possible “building blocks” was released on Friday, but it’s more of a broad summary that left all the hard questions unanswered. Regarding the energy sector, for example, options included “phasedown/out fossil fuels” and “phasedown/out/no new coal.” In other words: All options are on the table.

    What’s next? 

    Over the coming days, negotiators will try to agree on as many sections of the text as possible, but their bosses will take over in the summit’s second week to resolve the thornier questions. 

    This week’s talks will “inevitably lead to some very important political questions for ministers to resolve in the second week,” said Werksman, the EU negotiator. “Exactly what those questions are, we can’t fully speculate on — but we imagine that the issue of how we’re going to address fossil fuels will be top of the list.”

    Technically the deadline is December 12, but if past COPs are any guide, overtime is possible.

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  • Brazil’s anger over EU carbon tax infiltrates COP28

    Brazil’s anger over EU carbon tax infiltrates COP28

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    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Brazil has taken its green trade row with the European Union to this year’s global climate summit. 

    The Brazilian government has been among the most vocal opponents of the EU’s new carbon border tax on imported goods, describing the measure as “discriminatory” and warning it might hinder rather than help global efforts to reduce planet-warming emissions. 

    A fight is now brewing at the COP28 conference in Dubai as Brazil — backed by China — seeks to inject its trade concerns into international talks on how to curb climate change. 

    In the first iteration of a draft negotiating text published Tuesday, some countries are pushing for language that would see the nearly 200 countries represented at this year’s talks criticize measures such as the EU’s carbon border tax — essentially a levy on carbon-intensive products coming into the bloc.

    The proposal suggests that countries adopt a COP28 declaration that “expresses serious concern” about measures such as “sanctions on low-carbon products, restrictions on technology investment and cooperation, green barriers, discriminatory legislation, plurilateral constraints, etc.” — a series of categories that would cover the EU’s carbon levy.

    That comes after delegations narrowly avoided starting the summit with a scrap over the conference agenda last week, with Brazil requesting a last-minute addition to carve out space for a discussion on “concerns with unilateral trade measures related to climate change and their potential adverse impact on equitable and just transitions.”

    The development reflects the rising tensions between the EU and its trade partners, coming just as EU trade talks with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay ground to a halt this week. China earlier this year also escalated a fight against the EU at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over the tax, questioning whether the measure complies with global trade rules. 

    Who’s angry?

    The agenda request was submitted on behalf of the BASIC group of large, emerging economies — Brazil, China, India and South Africa. The accompanying justification text explicitly complained about “unilateral carbon border taxes.” 

    The four countries fear they could be hit hard by the so-called carbon border adjustment mechanism, which will force exporters to the bloc to pay the difference between the EU’s carbon price and that of their home countries. Carbon prices vary from country to country, with the EU’s nearing €100 at times and China’s hovering around €8.

    The measure — which entered a transitional phase on October 1, with payments starting in 2026 — was designed to protect EU companies that pay a carbon price against unfair competition from countries with no or low carbon prices. 

    At COP28, the EU insists that tensions over the tax aren’t affecting climate talks. 

    “We expect these political messages of concern to continue to come up” in climate negotiations, EU lead negotiator Jacob Werksman told reporters in Dubai on Monday. 

    But he added: “We don’t expect them to derail the conversations, mostly because I don’t think any party expects this to be a forum for a discussion on any party’s particular [trade] measures. … There’s a whole other institution for that. That’s the World Trade Organisation.”

    Yet on Tuesday, Brazil’s lead negotiator André Corrêa do Lago told reporters again that “some countries decided to adopt some trade measures that we believe don’t help developing countries to increase their efforts toward fighting climate change.” 

    He cited several United Nations agreements that Brazil sees as supporting its case. The BASIC submission also warns that such measures go against the Paris Agreement principles of “​​equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities,” meaning that developed countries responsible for the bulk of emissions in the atmosphere should do more to tackle climate change than developing nations. 

    Corrêa do Lago also hit back at suggestions that Brazil should take its concerns to the WTO instead. 

    “Why are we dealing with that here and not at the WTO?” he asked. “It’s very interesting. The same countries that say, ‘Oh, you shouldn’t be discussing this at COP, go to the WTO please,’ say at the WTO that ‘Oh, you should be discussing this at the [COP].” 

    Smiling, he said: “So we decided to talk about it here.” 

    China hasn’t come out against the EU’s carbon border tax while at COP28. But the key language in Tuesday’s draft is identical to a Chinese U.N. submission from September. It’s got the same jargon, and even the same “etc.” to wrap its list of items.

    To compare — China suggested countries at COP28 declare “serious concerns that some countries imposed measures, including, inter alia, sanctions on low-carbon products, restrictions on technology investment and cooperation, green barriers, discriminatory legislation, plurilateral constraints, etc.”

    Camille Gijs contributed reporting.

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  • Record number of fossil fuel lobbyists at COP28, environmentalists say

    Record number of fossil fuel lobbyists at COP28, environmentalists say

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    A group representing a coalition of environmental groups combed through the public list of people granted access to the United Nations COP28 climate talks and found at least 2,456 people the group considers fossil fuel lobbyists.

    The Kick Big Polluters Out coalition said that means that COP28, underway in Dubai, has the greatest number of participants affiliated with fossil fuel interests known to attend one of the annual U.N. climate negotiations.

    “The sheer number of fossil fuel lobbyists at climate talks that could determine our future is beyond justification,” Joseph Sikulu, a coalition member and Pacific managing director for the nonprofit group 350.org, said in a statement. “Their increasing presence at COP undermines the integrity of the process as a whole.”

    COP28 President Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber speaks during a press conference at the United Nations climate summit in Dubai. The U.N. talks have come under fire from several environmental groups and climate change researchers for apparent conflicts of interests by this year’s leadership.
    Karim Sahib/AFP via Getty Images

    The coalition did similar analyses of the last two COPs and found a sharp increase in the number of people affiliated with fossil fuel interests.

    At last year’s gathering in Egypt, the group identified 636 fossil fuel lobbyists, and 503 when the COP was held in Scotland in 2021. Over the past 20 COP gatherings, the group found, people representing fossil fuel interests attended COPs at least 7,200 times.

    The U.N. talks have already come under fire from several environmental groups and climate change researchers for apparent conflicts of interest by this year’s leadership. Host nation United Arab Emirates, one of the world’s largest oil producers, appointed an executive at the UAE’s national oil company to be president of COP28.

    COP28 President Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber has pushed back against his critics, including in his opening statements on the first day of talks.

    “Let history reflect the fact that this is the presidency that made a bold choice to proactively engage with oil and gas companies,” Al Jaber said, and he has touted an agreement with oil and gas companies to reduce methane emissions as proof that the industry can be part of climate solutions.

    U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for the Climate John Kerry has defended Al Jaber, who has also held an executive position with the UAE’s renewable energy company.

    Climate activists have sought greater transparency in the COP process and requirements to disclose potential conflicts of interest. COP28 is the first to operate under new transparency rules, and people attending must disclose who they represent.

    To conduct its analysis, the coalition defined a fossil fuel lobbyist as an attendee who “can be reasonably assumed” to work to influence outcomes to favor a fossil fuel company.

    That included delegates who had self-declared ties to fossil fuel companies and members of groups with fossil fuel interests. Many of the delegates the group identified as fossil fuel lobbyists were attending COP28 as part of a trade association.

    According to the group’s analysis, Geneva-based International Emissions Trading Association, IETA, has 116 people at COP28, including representatives from Shell, French petroleum conglomerate TotalEnergies, and Norwegian oil and gas company Equinor.

    When contacted for a comment, a spokesperson for IETA instead offered the organization’s policy on COP participation, which calls for delegates to adhere to U.N. standards and requirements for attendance at a COP.

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  • From decarbonization to electric cars, California hopes to showcase climate leadership at COP28

    From decarbonization to electric cars, California hopes to showcase climate leadership at COP28

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    World leaders are gearing up for COP28, an annual U.N. climate conference that will begin this week in Dubai, and California is expected to play a sizable role in the proceedings.

    Representatives from Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration will attend and speak on the Golden State’s progress toward clean energy goals, zero-emission vehicles and nature-based solutions, officials said. California will also engage in continued diplomacy at the subnational level after Newsom’s recent trip to China, where he engaged in climate talks with local leaders.

    “Part of our presence in California is really to make the case that subnational governments — that is, states, provinces, cities — need to have a central role in this international collaboration to combat climate change,” Wade Crowfoot, California’s natural resources secretary, told reporters Tuesday.

    Aggressive and impactful reporting on climate change, the environment, health and science.

    But some experts have soured slightly on the conference this year, noting that Dubai is one of the world’s leading oil producers and plays an outsize role in global fossil fuel emissions, the main driver of global warming. The conference is being chaired by Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, chief executive of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., one of the largest oil companies in the world.

    In a year expected to be the hottest ever recorded due to climate change, holding the conference in the Dubai sends mixed signals, said Cara Horowitz, executive director of the Emmett Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at UCLA, who will be attending the proceedings.

    “This conference will be an especially challenging one for making real progress,” Horowitz said, not only because of Al Jaber’s role but also because this year’s agenda offers few opportunities for new breakthrough agreements such as the Paris climate agreement, which was established eight years ago at COP21.

    A car's hood is open, with a cord running from a pole to the engine.

    The electric car sharing program at Rancho San Pedro was created in September 2020 and has attracted 39 users. The program is backed by the Zero Emissions Mobility and Community Pilot Project Fund, which is launching four zero-emission mobility pilots around Los Angeles County this year.

    (Myung J. Chun/Los Angeles Times)

    The Paris agreement seeks to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels and no higher than 2 degrees — a benchmark that was passed for the first time this month.

    “I doubt that this COP is going to radically change our approach to solving the problem, but hopefully it will add to incremental progress that allows us to see a way forward,” Horowitz said. “That’s deeply unsatisfying to me and to many others, but it’s a little hard to figure out how else one would go about tackling a problem of this size other than by bringing together the world’s leading experts, and the world’s most passionate advocates and policymakers, to create a space for change.”

    Indeed, California officials were emphatic that the state can get work done in Dubai. As one of the world’s largest economies, California is already a global leader in climate policy and has made great strides toward decarbonization, with the current goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2045.

    The state has also committed to transitioning to electric vehicles with a ban on new gas car sales slated to take effect in 2035. Currently, 27% of new vehicle sales in the state are zero-emission vehicles, up from 5% when Newsom took office.

    But more collaboration will be needed to reach greater goals, said Lauren Sanchez, Newsom’s senior climate advisor.

    “We could be net-zero tomorrow … but we would still need action from the world’s largest emitters, large countries and other nation states, in order to actually bend the curve of carbon emissions and keep Californians safe,” Sanchez said. “A big part of the diplomacy that we’ll be engaging in, as a subnational, is to share everything California has been working on and to continue learning from others.”

    Among the work California will be touting is its substantial investments in renewable energy. About 60% of the state’s power now comes from clean energy sources, said David Hochschild, chair of the California Energy Commission. That includes a 2,000% increase in solar power over the last decade and a 3,500% increase in energy storage over the last four years, making California the largest and fastest-growing energy storage market in the world, he said.

    At COP28, the state plans to join the Global Offshore Wind Alliance, an international consortium that seeks to achieve 2,000 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2050, with 25 gigawatts coming from California, Hochschild said.

    But energy is just one of California’s offerings at COP28, formally called the 28th Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. The state is planning presentations on its healthy soils program and on nature-based climate solutions, including habitat restoration work and the “30 by 30” plan to conserve 30% of the state’s lands and coastal waters by 2030. For the first time, California will also send its tribal affairs secretary, Christina Snider-Ashtari, to the conference.

    “This is actually the first point in history where globally, national and subnational governments have recognized the importance of Indigenous voices in this space, understanding too that Indigenous peoples are disproportionately impacted by the impacts of climate change,” Snider-Ashtari said.

    Horowitz, of UCLA, said other states and nations are listening and following California’s lead. She said she has been pleased by the state’s presence and authority at COP gatherings in the past.

    “California’s influence in global climate policymaking is real,” Horowitz said. “California continued to grow its economy as it shrank its greenhouse gas emissions, and in doing so, it serves as a model for the world that this is possible.”

    But the state also has lessons to learn at COP28 and will be launching an international climate partnership focused on reducing methane emissions. Methane is a short-lived greenhouse gas that lasts about a dozen years in the atmosphere but traps 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide.

    Three yellow school buses are parked behind two white, short, vertical structures with cords attached.

    Electric school buses sit idle because battery chargers are not yet functional at Lassen High School on Sept. 26, 2023, in Susanville, Calif.

    (Irfan Khan/Los Angeles Times)

    “We will be significantly expanding our collaborations in this space and really sharing information and strategies and understanding how data can help us tackle the problem of methane,” said Liane Randolph, chair of the California Air Resources Board.

    The state will also launch an international climate partnership among subnational jurisdictions with similar Mediterranean climates and will participate in a local climate action summit.

    “We’ll be lifting up what we’re doing in California on wildfires, drought, floods, extreme heat, sea level rise, but also developing and announcing collaborations with other governments across the world that are working on these issues as well,” Crowfoot said.

    He added that he is looking forward to the results of a “global stocktake” that will occur in Dubai — an inventory of climate progress that he and other officials hoped will prompt countries to update their climate targets to be more ambitious.

    But even as California looks to serve as an international climate model, the state is also grappling with its role as an oil producer and consumer. Sanchez said the state will attend COP28 “with a lot of humility” as it works to transform how it produces and consumes energy.

    The United States too is not without reproach, as it continues to produce and consume more oil than any other nation. Just weeks ago, the Biden administration released the country’s Fifth National Climate Assessment, a sobering report that showed the nation and the world are far from meeting climate goals.

    President Biden’s landmark climate bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, received considerable acclaim for its environmental plans and targets. But while international figures such as Pope Francis and King Charles III are slated to attend the conference in Dubai, Biden has opted to skip this year’s proceedings and send U.S. climate envoy John Kerry and other officials in his place.

    Despite the controversies surrounding this year’s COP, Horowitz said she is optimistic that the state and the nation can draw value from the event.

    “Often it’s states and cities and counties who are making nitty-gritty decisions about how to run their transit, and what to do with their waste, and what electricity supplies to purchase,” she said. “And it’s those kinds of decisions that really make a huge difference when aggregated globally, and that’s why cooperative efforts among local jurisdictions really matter.”

    In many cases, she added, it is the side conversation among states and provinces — as opposed to the high-level negotiations among countries — “where the real work of achieving climate emission reductions happens.”

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  • Eye-catching climate donations put spotlight on China at COP climate talks

    Eye-catching climate donations put spotlight on China at COP climate talks

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    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The U.N. climate summit kicked off Thursday with a parade of wealthy nations offering big-money pledges to help poorer countries cope with the ravages of a warming world — a surprise that turns up the pressure on countries like China to open their checkbooks.

    Leading the charge was the summit’s oil-rich host, the United Arab Emirates, whose $100 million (€92 million) vow seemed designed to defuse months of criticism about whether it can serve as an honest broker in talks about ending the world’s fossil fuel dependence. Its offer matched one from Germany.

    The maneuver certainly turned heads — and kicked off a cascade of contributions, making for a remarkable opening day at the 28th annual COP conference. The European Union said it would give at least €225 million for the fund (including Germany’s pledge). The United Kingdom tossed in £40 million, or approximately €46 million.

    Trailing far behind: the United States, at $17.5 million, or roughly €16 million.

    Suddenly, it was the UAE getting the praise. EU climate envoy Wopke Hoekstra thanked the country for “leading the way for new donors.” 

    He added: “Thanks to the EU’s efforts, the fund is open to contributions from all parties that have the capacity to pay.”

    His comment was a clear nod to the fact that the pledge transcended a decades-old divide in climate talks between “developed” and “developing” nations, particularly on financial matters. Many activists and climate-vulnerable countries have long argued that rich, industrialized countries responsible for the bulk of planet-warming emissions should take the lead on funding climate action. Even the Paris Agreement echoes this point.

    Now, however, the spotlight will turn to countries like China, the world’s second-largest economy, and Saudi Arabia and Qatar, two small yet affluent countries. All three are still considered “developing countries” under the U.N. climate framework despite amassing considerable wealth in recent generations.

    “We are building bridges between traditional donor countries and new, non-traditional donors,” said German Development Minister Svenja Schulze, who announced Berlin’s $100 million contribution via video link in the plenary, in a statement.

    Without mentioning any country in particular, she added: “After all, many countries that were still developing countries 30 years ago can now afford shouldering their share of responsibility for global climate-related loss and damage.”

    An age-old battle

    Most developing countries want to maintain their existing categorization, which harkens back to an early rubric used to define which countries are rich and poor. 

    But developed countries like the U.S. and those in Europe are campaigning for high-polluting emerging economies to contribute funding, a push aimed at broadening the donor base as financial needs grow.

    In the absence of direct bilateral aid, the U.S. is working to draw in more money from the private sector | Feng Li/Getty Images

    The countries’ commitments will go into what’s known as a “loss and damage” fund in U.N. jargon. The money is intended to help compensate for the destruction wrought by extreme weather and other consequences of global warming.

    Delegates from nearly 200 countries signed off on the initiative only hours into the summit, a positive sign given the issue was mired in fractious talks in the weeks before COP. 

    The U.S. pledge, small as it was, was still notable given that Washington has historically been reluctant to offer specific dollar amounts for the new fund. In recent weeks Biden administration officials have indicated their support for the fund but said they wanted to see it finalized before considering donations.

    That said, even the $17.5 million may never come to fruition, as the White House could need sign-off from a Republican-controlled House that has been hostile to such efforts and is already stymied on other international aid decisions. 

    Still, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry was bullish on Thursday. 

    “We also expect the fund to be up and running quickly,” he said. “We expect that will help address priority gaps in the current landscape of support, and we expect it will draw from a wide variety of sources.”

    In the absence of direct bilateral aid, the U.S. is working to draw in more money from the private sector and has supported the idea of funding from more innovative sources, which could include things like levies on air travel. 

    Behind the U.S. was Japan, which said it would give $10 million. 

    “While the overall signal from today’s pledges is positive, it is disappointing that the United States and Japan chipped in so little,” said Ani Dasgupta, president of the World Resources Institute. “Given the size of their economies, there is simply no excuse for their contributions to be far eclipsed by others.”

    Dasgupta called the UAE pledge “particularly notable,” since it broadens the group of nations providing climate finance.

    Making history

    The deluge of announcements came after delegates approved the framework for the new climate disaster fund, a landmark decision that prompted a standing ovation at the summit.

    “We have delivered history today,” COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber — who also heads the UAE’s state-owned oil company — told delegates, adding that this marks “the first time a decision has been adopted on Day One at any COP.” 

    Sultan al-Jaber heads the UAE’s state-owned oil company | Mark Felix/AFP via Getty Images

    Delegations and civil society organizations broadly welcomed Thursday’s announcements and U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell said the development gave the conference “a running start.” 

    But some warned of a yawning gap between the initial pledges and countries’ financing needs.

    “The initial funding pledges are clearly inadequate and will be a drop in the ocean compared to the scale of the need they are to address,” said Mohamed Adow, director of the nonprofit Power Shift Africa. 

    “In particular, the amount announced by the U.S. is embarrassing for President Biden and John Kerry,” he added. “It just shows how this must be just the start.”

    As for China, “I don’t think they will pledge,” said Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “But this highlights the urgency for China to consider its evolving responsibilities when it comes to finance.” 

    Still, the $200 million from Germany and the UAE will cover the cost of getting the fund set up under the World Bank, allowing additional pledges to flow into the fund itself. 

    “This day is doubly auspicious due to the immediate commencement of the capitalization process,” said Pa’olelei Luteru, a Samoan diplomat who chairs an alliance of island nations long pushing for the fund. 

    “This is an encouraging beginning,” he added, “but there is much work ahead of us.”

    Zia Weise reported from Dubai. Sara Schonhardt reported from Washington, D.C.

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  • Renewed Israel-Gaza war crowds out climate at COP28

    Renewed Israel-Gaza war crowds out climate at COP28

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    DUBAI — The war in Gaza crashed into the United Nations climate summit on Friday, as furious sideline diplomacy, blunt censures of violence and an Iranian boycott shoved global warming to the side.

    It was a sharp change in tone from the COP28 opening on Thursday, which ended on an upbeat note as countries promised to support climate-stricken communities. The mood darkened the following day as news broke that the week-old truce between Israel and Hamas was collapsing. 

    Israeli President Isaac Herzog spent much of the morning in meetings telling fellow leaders about “how Hamas blatantly violates the ceasefire agreements,” according to a post on his X account. He ended up skipping a speech he was meant to give during Friday’s parade of world leaders.

    There were other conspicuous no-shows. Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was absent, despite being listed as an early speaker. And Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian Authority leader, also disappeared from the final speakers’ list after initially being scheduled to talk just a few slots after Herzog. 

    Then, shortly after leaders posed for a group photo in the Dubai venue on Friday, the Iranian delegation announced it was walking out. The reason, Iran’s energy minister told his country’s official news agency: The “political, biased and irrelevant presence of the fake Zionist regime” — referring to Israel. 

    By Friday afternoon, the Iranian pavilion had emptied out. 

    The backroom drama played out even as leader after leader took the stage in the vast Expo City campus to make allotted three-minute statements on their efforts to stop the planet from boiling. The World Meteorological Organization said Thursday that 2023 was almost certain to be the hottest year ever recorded.

    U.N. climate talks are often buffeted by outside events. This is the second such meeting held after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That war provoked some public barbs and backroom discussions at last year’s summit in Egypt, but leaders still maintained their scheduled speaking slots and a veneer of focus on the matter they were supposedly there to discuss.

    This year, that veneer cracked. 

    “There are currently a number of very, very serious crises that are causing great suffering for many people. It was clear that these would also affect the mood at the COP,” a German diplomat, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly, told POLITICO. 

    But that can’t distract officials working on climate change, the diplomat added: “It is also clear that no one on our planet, no country on Earth, can escape the destructive effects of the climate crisis.” 

    Tell-tale signals

    There had been early signs that the conflict would spill over into discussions at the climate summit. 

    Sameh Shoukry, president of the COP27 climate conference and Egyptian minister of foreign affairs, Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, president of COP28 | Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    At Thursday’s opening ceremony, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry — president of last year’s COP27 summit — asked all delegates to stand for a moment of silence in memory of two climate negotiators who had recently died, “as well as all civilians who have perished during the current conflict in Gaza.” 

    On Friday, Jordanian King Abdullah II, Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan were among the leaders who used their COP28 speeches to draw attention to the war.

    “This year’s COP must recognize even more than ever that we cannot talk about climate change in isolation from the humanitarian tragedies unfolding around us,” Abdullah said. “As we speak, the Palestinian people are facing an immediate threat to their lives and wellbeing.”  

    Ramaphosa went further: “South Africa is appalled at the cruel tragedy that is underway in Gaza. The war against the innocent people of Palestine is a war crime that must be ended now. 

    But, he added, “we cannot lose momentum in the fight against climate change.”

    Asked for comment, an official from the United Arab Emirates, which is overseeing COP28, said the country had invited all parties to the conference and “are pleased with the exceptionally high level of attendance this year.” 

    The official added: “Climate change is a global issue and as the host for this significant, momentous conference, the UAE  welcomes constructive dialogue and continues to work with all international partners and stakeholders across the board to deliver impactful results for COP28.”  

    The other summit in Dubai

    In the back rooms of the conference venue, leaders were holding urgent talks on the war. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken huddled with Herzog on Thursday, according to a post on Herzog’s X account. 

    “In addition to participating in the COP, I’ll have an opportunity to meet with Arab partners to discuss the conflict in Gaza,” Blinken told reporters Wednesday while in Brussels for a NATO gathering. He didn’t offer further details.

    A senior Biden administration official told reporters Vice President Kamala Harris would also be “having discussions on the conflict between Israel and Hamas” during her trip to Dubai.

    On his X account, Herzog said he had met with “dozens” of leaders at the summit. His post featured photographs of Britain’s King Charles III, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, India’s Narendra Modi and Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. He also posted about meetings with Blinken and UAE leader Mohamed bin Zayed.

    Erdoğan met with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at COP28 to discuss the war in Gaza, according to a statement by the Turkish communications directorate that made no mention of climate action. 

    U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made no secret of the fact that he intended to use some of his brief visit to Dubai to talk about regional security.

    U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made no secret of the fact that he intended to use some of his brief visit to Dubai to talk about regional security | Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    “I’ll be speaking to lots of leaders … not just [about] climate change, but also the situation in the Middle East,” he told reporters on his flight out of the U.K. Thursday night.

    The reignited Israel-Hamas conflict came to dominate his time at the summit. Meetings with other leaders were arranged with regional tensions in mind — not climate. Sunak met Israel’s Herzog and Jordan’s Abdullah, as well as Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al Sisi and the emir of Qatar.  

    “Given the events of this morning in Israel and Gaza, the prime minister has spent most of his bilateral meetings discussing that situation,” Sunak’s spokesperson told reporters in Dubai.

    The meetings focused on “what more we can do both to support the innocent civilians in Gaza, to de-escalate tensions, to get more hostages out and more aid in,” the spokesperson said.

    Even the U.K.’s ostensibly nonpolitical head of state, King Charles III — in Dubai to give an opening address to world leaders — was deployed to aid the diplomatic effort. Buckingham Palace said the king would “have the opportunity to meet regional leaders to support the U.K.’s efforts to promote peace in the region.”

    Separately, French President Emmanuel Macron was planning to meet various leaders on the security situation and then fly on for talks in Qatar, according to an Elysée Palace official. 

    Meanwhile, three of Europe’s leaders who have been the strongest backers of the Palestinians — Irish leader Leo Varadkar, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez — held talks on the fringes of COP on Friday morning.

    Earlier on Friday, Israel withdrew its ambassador to Spain, blasting what it called Sánchez’s “shameful remarks” on the situation.

    Brazil’s Lula, whose country will host a major COP conference in 2025, lamented that just as more joint action is needed to prevent climate catastrophe, war and violence were cleaving the world apart.  

    “We are facing what may be the greatest challenge that humanity has faced till now,” he said. “Instead of uniting forces, the world is going to wars. It feeds divisions and deepens poverty and inequalities.”

    Zia Weise, Suzanne Lynch and Charlie Cooper reported from Dubai. Karl Mathiesen reported from London.

    Clea Calcutt contributed reporting from Paris. Nahal Toosi contributed reporting from Washington, D.C. 

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  • Israel steps up pounding of Gaza after collapse of truce

    Israel steps up pounding of Gaza after collapse of truce

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    The Israeli military on Saturday stepped up its bombing of Gaza Strip, intensifying its renewed bombing on the second day after a truce between Israel and Hamas collapsed, with Israel accusing Hamas of violating the terms of the agreement.

    The Israel Defense Forces IDF said on X on Saturday that Israeli strikes hit a total of over 400 terrorist targets in Gaza, including more than 50 targets in the area of Khan Yunis and an Islamic Jihad operational command center inside a mosque, as well as military targets used by Hamas Naval Force.

    The BBC reported that hundreds of Gaza residents were seen leaving to the western part of Khan Yunis after the Israeli army on Friday dropped leaflets over the area warning people to leave.

    Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo earlier Saturday said he had spoken with Israel’s president following the resumption of fighting in Gaza and told him there could be no more killing of civilians. “I’ve addressed my concerns about the fact that violence has started again and I’ve again repeated what I said at the Rafah gate: no more civilian killings,” De Croo told reporters at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, according to a Reuters report.

    Israeli President Isaac Herzog on Friday skipped a speech he was scheduled to give at the COP28 meeting and accused Hamas of “blatantly” violating the truce. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on his X account that the fight against Hamas will continue “until we achieve all our goals: the return of all our abductees, the elimination of Hamas, and the promise that Gaza will never be a threat to Israel again.”

    Hamas launched a violent attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip on October 7, killing at least 1,200 people and taking hundreds of hostages. Since then, Israel has been carrying out retaliatory strikes on the besieged enclave, killing more than 11,000 Palestinians, according to both the Palestinian Authority and Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry.

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  • Climate action or distraction? Sweeping COP pledges won’t touch fossil fuel use

    Climate action or distraction? Sweeping COP pledges won’t touch fossil fuel use

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    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — A torrent of pollution-slashing pledges from governments and major oil companies sparked cries of “greenwashing” on Saturday, even before world leaders had boarded their flights home from this year’s global climate conference.  

    After leaders wrapped two days of speeches filled with high-flying rhetoric and impassioned pleas for action, the Emirati presidency of the COP28 climate talks unleashed a series of initiatives aimed at cleaning up the world’s energy sector, the largest source of planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions. 

    The announcement, made at an hours-long event Saturday afternoon featuring U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, contained two main planks — a pledge by oil and gas companies to reduce emissions, and a commitment by 118 countries to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity and double energy savings efforts. 

    It was, on its face, an impressive and ambitious reveal. 

    COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber, the oil executive helming the talks, crowed that the package “aligns more countries and companies around the North Star of keeping 1.5 degrees Celsius within reach than ever before,” referring to the Paris Agreement target for limiting global warming. 

    But many climate-vulnerable countries and non-government groups instantly cast an arched eyebrow toward the whole endeavor.

    “The rapid acceleration of clean energy is needed, and we’ve called for the tripling of renewables. But it is only half the solution,” said Tina Stege, climate envoy for the Marshall Islands. “The pledge can’t greenwash countries that are simultaneously expanding fossil fuel production.” 

    Carroll Muffett, president of the nonprofit Center for International Environmental Law, said: “The only way to ‘decarbonize’ carbon-based oil and gas is to stop producing it. … Anything short of this is just more industry greenwash.”

    The divided reaction illustrates the fine line negotiators are trying to walk. The European Union has campaigned for months to win converts to the pledge on renewables and energy efficiency the U.S. and others signed up to on Saturday, even offering €2.3 billion to help. And the COP28 presidency has been on board. 

    But Brussels, in theory, also wants these efforts to go hand in hand with a fossil fuel phaseout — a tough proposition for countries pulling in millions from the sector. The EU rhetoric often goes slightly beyond the U.S., even though the two allies officially support the end of “unabated” fossil fuel use, language that leaves the door open for continued oil and gas use as long as the emissions are captured — though such technology remains largely unproven.

    Von der Leyen was seen trying to thread that needle on Saturday. She omitted fossil fuels altogether from her speech to leaders before slipping in a mention in a press release published hours later: “We are united by our common belief that to respect the 1.5°C goal … we need to phase out fossil fuels.” 

    Harris on Saturday said the world “cannot afford to be incremental. We need transformative change and exponential impact.” 

    But she did not mention phasing out fossil fuels in her speech, either. The U.S., the world’s top oil producer, has not made the goal a central pillar of its COP28 strategy. 

    Flurry of pledges  

    The EU and the UAE said 118 countries had signed up to the global energy goals.

    The new fossil fuels agreement has been branded the “Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter” and earned the signatures of 50 companies. The COP28 presidency said it had “launched” the deal with Saudi Arabia — the world’s largest oil exporter and one of the main obstacles to progress on international climate action.

    Among the signatories was Saudi state energy company, Aramco, the world’s biggest energy firm — and second-biggest company of any sort, by revenue. Other global giants like ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies also signed.

    They have committed to eliminate methane emissions by 2030, to end the routine flaring of gas by the same date, and to achieve net-zero emissions from their production operations by 2050. Adnan Amin, CEO of COP28, singled out the fact that, among the 50 firms, 29 are national oil companies.  

    “That in itself is highly significant because you have not seen national oil companies so evident in these discussions before,” he told reporters.

    The COP28 presidency could not disguise its glee at the flurry of announcements from the opening weekend of the conference.

    “It already feels like an awful lot that we have delivered, but I am proud to say that this is just the beginning,” Majid al-Suwaidi, the COP28 director general, told reporters. 

    Fred Krupp, president of the U.S.-based Environmental Defense Fund, predicted: “This will be the single most impactful day I’ve seen at any COP in 30 years in terms of slowing the rate of warming.” 

    But other observers said the oil and gas commitments did not go far beyond commitments many companies already make. Research firm Zero Carbon Analytics noted the deal is “voluntary and broadly repeats previous pledges.”

    Melanie Robinson, global climate program director at the World Resources Institute, said it was “encouraging that some national oil companies have set methane reduction targets for the first time.” 

    But she added: “Most global oil and gas companies already have stringent requirements to cut methane emissions. … This charter is proof that voluntary commitments from the oil and gas industry will never foster the level of ambition necessary to tackle the climate crisis.” 

    Some critics theorized that the COP28 presidency had deliberately launched the renewables and energy efficiency targets together with the oil and gas pledge. 

    The combination, said David Tong, global industry campaign manager at advocacy group Oil Change International, “appears to be a calculated move to distract from the weakness of this industry pledge.”

    The charter, he added, “is a trojan horse for Big Oil and Gas greenwash.” 

    Beyond voluntary moves 

    A push to speed up the phaseout of coal power garnered less attention — with French President Emmanuel Macron separately unveiling a new initiative and the United States joining a growing alliance of countries pledging to zero out coal emissions.

    Macron’s “coal transition accelerator” focuses on ending private financing for coal, helping coal-dependent communities and scaling up clean energy. And Washington’s new commitment confirms its path to end all coal-fired power generation unless the emissions are first captured through technology. U.S. use of coal for power generation has already plummeted in the past decade. 

    The U.S. pledge will put pressure on China, the world’s largest consumer and producer of coal, as well as countries like Japan, Turkey and Australia to give up on the high-polluting fuel, said Leo Roberts, program lead on fossil fuel transitions at think tank E3G. 

    “It’s symbolic, the world’s biggest economy getting behind the shift away from the dirtiest fossil fuel, coal. And it’s sending a signal to … others who haven’t made the same commitment,” he said. 

    The U.S. also unveiled new restrictions on methane emissions for its oil and gas sector on Saturday — a central plank of the Biden administration’s climate plans — and several leaders called for greater efforts to curb the potent greenhouse gas in their speeches. 

    Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley called for a “global methane agreement” at COP28, warning that voluntary efforts hadn’t worked out. Von der Leyen, meanwhile, urged negotiators to enshrine the renewables and energy efficiency targets in the final summit text. 

    Mohamed Adow, director of the think tank Power Shift Africa, warned delegates not to get distracted by nonbinding pledges. 

    “We need to remember COP28 is not a trade show and a press conference,” he cautioned. “The talks are why we are here and getting an agreed fossil fuel phaseout date remains the biggest step countries need to take here in Dubai over the remaining days of the summit.”

    Sara Schonhardt contributed reporting.

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  • John Kerry shrugs off COP28 chief’s controversial fossil fuel remarks

    John Kerry shrugs off COP28 chief’s controversial fossil fuel remarks

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    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber’s controversial remarks that “no science” shows a fossil fuel phaseout is needed to hit climate goals may require “clarification,” U.S. climate envoy John Kerry told POLITICO. 

    Kerry’s remarks — his first reaction since the Guardian published al-Jaber’s comments on Sunday — show the U.S. diplomat is not withdrawing his long-standing support for the COP28 chief, despite ongoing concerns about al-Jaber’s other role as CEO of ADNOC, the UAE’s state-owned mega oil firm.

    “Look, he’s gotta decide how he wants to phrase it, but the bottom line is this COP needs to be committed to phasing out all unabated fossil fuel,” Kerry told POLITICO’s Power Play podcast with Anne McElvoy. 

    Speaking during an online event in November, al-Jaber said there was no scientific basis to conclude that a fossil fuel phaseout is needed to restrict global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius — the most ambitious target of the Paris Agreement. Kerry tried to contextualize the remarks.

    “What I think he was saying, and maybe it came out the wrong way, I don’t know; I think he was saying that the science doesn’t dictate the methodology that you have to use,” he said. “You have to choose between many different ways of doing it. Maybe it happens through carbon capture, maybe it doesn’t” — a reference to the largely unproven technology that removes emissions before they enter the atmosphere. 

    In addition to al-Jaber’s dismissal of the science supporting a fossil fuel phaseout — a stance climate scientists quickly disputed — the COP28 president has also taken heat for leaked documents indicating the UAE planned to use the summit to push fossil fuel deals, allegations al-Jaber strenuously denied.

    Kerry has tried to walk a fine line for months with al-Jaber. He has embraced the choice to put an oil executive atop the climate talks, arguing it may help bring the industry to the table to negotiate much-needed cuts to greenhouse gas pollution. But the support has stood out amid the flood of dissent from climate advocates and scores of lawmakers in the U.S. and EU. 

    In his remarks at the online event, al-Jaber also argued that phasing out fossil fuels would not allow sustainable development “unless you want to take the world back into caves.” 

    Kerry encouraged people to listen to al-Jaber’s words at COP28 itself, which began last Thursday in Dubai and runs through mid-December: “I heard him definitively say in his opening comments to the entire COP that he is committed to 1.5 degrees and that we need to do all the things necessary to implement that.”

    When asked whether he would advise al-Jaber to clarify his remarks, Kerry said: “Maybe there’ll be a clarification. I don’t know, but I do know that the COP president’s position is that we have to achieve 1.5 degrees, and he has said that again and again.”

    On Monday, al-Jaber did offer some clarification in his first public appearance since the report was published. He took shots at the media portrayal of his comments, which he said ignored his previous remarks that it is “inevitable” and “essential” for the world to move off of fossil fuels.

    “One statement gets taken out of context with misrepresentation and misinterpretation — that gets maximum coverage,” he said during a press conference.

    John Kerry and Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber | Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Al-Jaber said the world must shave global emissions 43 percent this decade to have a chance at hitting the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal. On that point, he said he thought he had been “crystal clear.”

    “Let me just clarify where I stand on the science — I hope this time it gets picked up,” he stressed. “I am quite surprised at the constant attempt to undermine this message.”

    Jim Skea, who chairs the authoritative climate science body the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, also defended al-Jaber during the press conference. Seated to the COP president’s left, Skea said al-Jaber has been “attentive” through one-on-one meetings about the science. 

    Still, al-Jaber is facing ongoing criticism for failing to address the UAE’s own rise in oil production. ADNOC may drill 42 percent more by 2030, according to recent projections.

    Speaking to POLITICO, Kerry agreed that the UAE must “cut [oil and gas production], and everybody needs to be reducing supply and demand.” 

    U.S. oil production, of course, also hit an all-time high this year.

    Al-Jaber has staked his credibility on acting as a pragmatic broker between climate negotiators and the oil and gas industry, where he is a major player. Over the weekend he revealed the fruits of that work: an alliance of 50 companies pledging to reduce their emissions.

    But on Sunday, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres pooh-poohed the effort. “The promises made clearly fall short of what is required,” he said, noting the failure to address emissions from later burning the industry’s oil and gas. 

    “Integrity really matters,” said Guterres. “So there must be no room for greenwashing. And this also applies to what has been announced yesterday.”

    You can listen to the full interview with John Kerry on Power Play on Thursday.

    Karl Mathiesen contributed reporting.

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  • Kamala Harris at climate summit: World must ‘fight’ those stalling action

    Kamala Harris at climate summit: World must ‘fight’ those stalling action

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    DUBAI — The vast, global efforts to arrest rising temperatures are imperiled and must accelerate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris told the world climate summit on Saturday. 

    “We must do more,” she implored an audience of world leaders at the COP28 climate talks in Dubai. And the headwinds are only growing, she warned.

    “Continued progress will not be possible without a fight,” she told the gathering, which has drawn more than 100,000 people to this Gulf oil metropolis. “Around the world, there are those who seek to slow or stop our progress. Leaders who deny climate science, delay climate action and spread misinformation. Corporations that greenwash their climate inaction and lobby for billions of dollars in fossil fuel subsidies.” 

    Her remarks — less than a year before an election that could return Donald Trump to the White House — challenged leaders to cooperate and spend more to keep the goal of containing global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius within reach. So far, the planet has warmed about 1.3 degrees since preindustrial times.

    “Our action collectively, or worse, our inaction will impact billions of people for decades to come,” Harris said.

    The vice president, who frequently warns about climate change threats in speeches and interviews, is the highest-ranking face of the Biden White House at the Dubai negotiations.

    She used her conference platform to push that image, announcing several new U.S. climate initiatives, including a record-setting $3 billion pledge for the so-called Green Climate Fund, which aims to help countries adapt to climate change and reduce emissions. The commitment echoes an identical pledge Barack Obama made in 2014 — of which only $1 billion was delivered. The U.S. Treasury Department later specified that the updated commitment was “subject to the availability of funds.”

    Meanwhile, back in D.C., the Biden administration strategically timed the release of new rules to crack down on planet-warming methane emissions from the oil and gas sector — a significant milestone in its plan to prevent climate catastrophe.

    The trip allows Harris to bolster her credentials on a policy issue critical to the young voters key to President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign — and potentially to a future Harris White House run. 

    “Given her knowledge base with the issue, her passion for the issue, it strikes me as a smart move for her to broaden that message out to the international audience,” said Roger Salazar, a California political strategist and former aide to then-Vice President Al Gore, a lifetime climate campaigner. 

    Yet sending Harris also presents political peril. 

    Biden has taken flak from critics for not attending the talks himself after representing the United States at the last two U.N. climate summits since taking office. And climate advocates have questioned the Biden administration’s embrace of the summit’s leader, Sultan al-Jaber, given he also runs the United Arab Emirates’ state-owned oil giant. John Kerry, Biden’s climate envoy, has argued the partnership can help bring fossil fuel megaliths to the table.

    Harris has been on a climate policy roadshow in recent months, discussing the issue during a series of interviews at universities and other venues packed with young people and environmental advocates. The administration said it views Harris — a former California senator and attorney general — as an effective spokesperson on climate. 

    “The vice president’s leadership on climate goes back to when she was the district attorney of San Francisco, as she established one of the first environmental justice units in the nation,” a senior administration official told reporters on a call previewing her trip. 

    Joining Harris in Dubai are Kerry, White House climate adviser Ali Zaidi and John Podesta, who’s leading the White House effort to implement Biden’s signature climate law. 

    Biden officials are leaning on that climate law — dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act — to prove the U.S. is doing its part to slash global emissions. Yet climate activists remain skeptical, chiding Biden for separately approving a series of fossil fuel projects, including an oil drilling initiative in Alaska and an Appalachian natural gas pipeline.

    Similarly, the Biden administration’s opening COP28 pledge of $17.5 million for a new international climate aid fund frustrated advocates for developing nations combating climate threats. The figure lagged well behind other allies, several of whom committed $100 million or more.

    Nonetheless, Harris called for aggressive action in her speech, which was followed by a session with other officials on renewable energy. The vice president committed the U.S. to doubling its energy efficiency and tripling its renewable energy capacity by 2030, joining a growing list of countries. The U.S. also said Saturday it was joining a global alliance dedicated to divorcing the world from coal-based energy. 

    Like other world leaders, Harris also used her trip to conduct a whirlwind of diplomacy over the war between Israel and Hamas, which has flared back up after a brief truce.

    U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Harris would be meeting with “regional leaders” to discuss “our desire to see this pause restored, our desire to see aid getting back in, our desire to see hostages get out.”

    The war has intruded into the proceedings at the climate summit, with Israeli President Isaac Herzog and Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas both skipping their scheduled speaking slots on Friday. Iran’s delegation also walked out of the summit, objecting to Israel’s presence.

    Kirby said Harris will convey “that we believe the Palestinian people need a vote and a voice in their future, and then they need governance in Gaza that will look after their aspirations and their needs.”

    Although Biden won’t be going to Dubai, the administration said these climate talks are “especially” vital, given countries will decide how to respond to a U.N. assessment that found the world’s climate efforts are falling short. 

    “This is why the president has made climate a keystone of his administration’s foreign policy agenda,” the senior administration official said.

    Robin Bravender reported from Washington, D.C. Zia Weise and Charlie Cooper reported from Dubai. 

    Sara Schonhardt contributed reporting from Washington, D.C.

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  • Russia is holding next year’s global climate summit ‘hostage’ 

    Russia is holding next year’s global climate summit ‘hostage’ 

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    Voiced by artificial intelligence.

    Think the location of this year’s global climate summit is contentious? Wait till you hear about the next one. 

    When COP28 kicks off next week in the United Arab Emirates, the oil kingdom presiding over the talks will face pressure to show its fossil fuel interests won’t capture negotiations.

    But at least the conference has a host. Next year’s summit, COP29, is currently homeless. 

    That’s because regional tensions have created a deadlock. The conference is meant to take place in Eastern Europe, but Russia is preventing any European Union country from hosting, while warring neighbors Azerbaijan and Armenia are blocking each other, and no one has been able to agree on a way forward.

    The result: COP29 is in limbo, and global efforts to secure a liveable future risk being left leaderless. If no one picks up the baton, the current host may remain in place until COP30 starts in 2025 — likely leaving the UAE in charge of talks on major decisions like a new finance goal and getting governments to commit to post-2030 climate targets. 

    Officially, Russia’s line of reasoning “is that they don’t believe that Bulgaria or any other EU country will be impartial in running COP29,” said Julian Popov, the environment minister for Bulgaria, which has offered to host next year’s climate summit.

    But behind closed doors, “their argument is that they are being blocked by EU countries about various things in relation to the war against Ukraine,” he told POLITICO in an interview. 

    “They are,” he said, “basically retaliating.” 

    The dispute now risks disrupting both COP28 and COP29, as diplomats scramble to resolve the issue before departing Dubai in mid-December. 

    “Russia has chosen to hold these negotiations almost hostage,” said Tom Evans, policy advisor on climate diplomacy and geopolitics at think tank E3G. 

    Race against time

    The hosting dispute is inflaming geopolitical tensions heading into COP28, which takes place amid growing global discord related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas war, and an evolving debt crisis looming over developing nations. 

    The COP climate summits typically rotate among the United Nations’ five regional groups, and next year is Eastern Europe’s turn. The 23-country Eastern Europe group has to decide on the host country by consensus. 

    COP28 President-Designate Dr. Sultan Al Jaber | Bryan Bedder/Getty Images for Bloomberg Philanthropies

    In the past, that wasn’t hard: The COP conference would just rubber-stamp the host chosen by the regional group. Now, however, the decision will have to be taken at the height of tricky talks on a host of issues ranging from the future of fossil fuels to financial help for poorer countries. 

    “It’s unfortunate,” said Popov, that the hosting dispute may “distract” from the actual negotiations in Dubai. 

    Then there’s the issue of preparation. COP locations are usually chosen well in advance — the UAE was announced as host in 2021, and COP30 will take place in Brazil — to allow host cities to ready themselves for the arrival of tens of thousands of delegates. 

    The host country usually, but not always, also takes on the COP presidency, which plays a crucial role in leading negotiations before, during and after the summit.  

    “We still don’t know who will run the process next year,” Popov said. “This is damaging the whole COP process and will inevitably have a negative impact on the quality of negotiations.” 

    Among the key issues to be settled at COP29 is a new financial target for funding climate action in developing countries from 2025 onward. Ahead of COP30, countries are meant to submit a new round of climate pledges, including targets to reduce emissions by 2035.

    “You really need months of diplomacy in advance to set these COPs up for success,” Evans said. 

    Geopolitical stalemate

    Besides Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Belarus and Armenia also said last year they would throw their hats in the ring for 2024. 

    Prague eventually withdrew, proposing instead to host the annual pre-COP summit ahead of the main event in Bulgaria. But this past spring, Russia sent an email to other Eastern European representatives saying it would prevent EU countries from hosting, accusing them of blocking Russia-backed countries. 

    The email, obtained by Reuters, read: “It is reasonable to believe that EU countries, driven by politics from Brussels, do not have the capacity to serve as honest and effective brokers of global climate negotiations under the UNFCCC,” the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. 

    In the summer, Azerbaijan joined the race to host COP29 — a few months before launching a large-scale offensive to retake the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region, forcing tens of thousands to flee to Armenia. 

    Azerbaijan and Armenia are now opposing each other’s bids, said Gayane Gabrielyan, Armenia’s deputy environment minister. 

    “Russia is blocking any EU country, and Armenia and Azerbaijan can’t find a solution,” she told POLITICO. “We have more than 100,000 refugees … In this situation, we will not be able to discuss anything with them.” 

    The foreign and environment ministries of Russia and Azerbaijan did not respond to requests for comment. 

    The Eastern Europeans could also swap with another regional group or a specific country outside the region to host — like Spain stepped in for Chile in 2019 — but that would also require consensus, as well as the formal withdrawal of all host candidates. 

    “The only option now is going to Bonn,” Gabrielyan said. “The motherland of the UNFCCC.” 

    Bonn-bound? 

    Bonn is where the U.N. climate body is headquartered. The conference guidelines indicate that the summit would default to the former West German capital if no agreement is found among the Eastern European group. 

    But hosting a climate conference “isn’t trivial,” Evans said. “There’s a cost involved, and there’s a huge logistical headache.” 

    Several European diplomats, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, told POLITICO that Germany was less than keen, something German officials would neither confirm nor deny. 

    Asked if Germany was prepared to host, a foreign office spokesperson said that discussions within the Eastern European group were ongoing, “with the aim of COP28 taking a decision.” 

    While Bonn may end up serving as the venue, the presidency would likely remain in the hands of the UAE if the Eastern Europeans can’t find consensus, a spokesperson for the U.N. climate body said. 

    Yet the UAE, which has faced a barrage of criticism since naming national oil company CEO Sultan al-Jaber as conference president, appears reluctant to continue in its role.

    COP28 Director-General Majid al-Suwaidi said last month that his country would not host again. Asked to clarify whether that also meant not extending the presidency, a COP28 spokesperson declined to comment.

    The predicament has prompted Bulgaria to suggest a novel solution to, as Popov put it, “save COP29” —  splitting the mega-event across several nations in Eastern Europe. 

    “Here’s what we suggested: A distributed COP — have the pre-COP, the presidency and the COP held by three different countries, and have some events organized in different Eastern European countries,” he said. 

    But that, too, would need the backing of all regional group members. Gabrielyan said Armenia was “ready to discuss” this option, but that Azerbaijan had signaled opposition. 

    The uncertainty over who will host COP29 may come with one positive side-effect, however: Diplomats might be wary of postponing difficult decisions to next year. 

    “It’s not uncommon for COPs, when they reach some of the trickiest issues, to kick the can down the road,” said Evans. “I don’t feel like this is an option this time.” 

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  • King Charles, David Cameron and Rishi Sunak show UK’s COP28 identity crisis

    King Charles, David Cameron and Rishi Sunak show UK’s COP28 identity crisis

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    LONDON — COP28, meet the U.K.’s three amigos.

    One is a king who has spent most of his adult life campaigning for bold action on global warming — but is now bound by ancient convention to stick to his government’s skeptical script.

    The second is a prime minister who just scaled back Britain’s net zero ambitions and wants to “max out” fossil fuel production at home — and stands accused by former colleagues of being “uninterested” in environmental policies.

    And the third? A former prime minister — now the U.K. foreign secretary — who once pledged to lead the “greenest government ever,” but then grew tired of what he called “the green crap” … and is already showing signs of overshadowing his new boss.

    All three — King Charles III, Rishi Sunak, and David Cameron — are due to descend on the United Nations climate conference, COP28, which starts in Dubai next week, rounding off a year set to be the hottest ever recorded. (Sunak and the king are already confirmed to attend, while Cameron is due to do so in the coming days.)

    The unlikely trio, each jostling for their place on the world stage, are symbolic of a wider identity crisis for the U.K. heading into the summit.

    The country staked a claim as a world leader on climate when it hosted COP26 just two years ago. But it is now viewed with uncertainty by allies pushing for stronger action on global warming, following Sunak’s embrace of North Sea oil and gas and his retreat on some key domestic net zero targets.

    “There is a lot of confusion about what the U.K. is going to do this year,” said one European diplomat, granted anonymity to give a candid assessment ahead of the summit.

    “It raises the question, which team are they on? I think we’ll need to find out during COP.”

    Green king, Blue Prime Minister

    One of the key moments for the U.K. will come early in the conference, when Charles delivers an opening speech at the World Climate Action Summit of world leaders, the grand curtain raiser on a fortnight of talks.

    Sunak is expected to fly in the same day to deliver his own speech later in the session.

    Rishi Sunak speaks at COP26 in Glasgow | Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    At least Charles has been allowed to attend the summit this year. In 2022, then Prime Minister Liz Truss advised the king against travelling to Egypt for COP27.

    But anyone looking for signs of friction between Sunak and the climate-conscious king will be unlikely to find them in the text of Charles’ address.

    Speeches by the monarch are signed off by No. 10 Downing Street and this one will be no different, said one minister, granted anonymity to discuss interactions between the PM’s office and Buckingham Palace.

    That’s not to say tensions don’t exist. Just don’t expect the king to overstep the constitutional ground rules, said Charles’ friend and biographer, the broadcaster Jonathan Dimbleby.

    “I can only imagine that he must be intensely frustrated that the government has granted licenses in the North Sea,” Dimbleby told POLITICO. “Whatever the actual practical implications of the drilling in terms of combating climate change, it will not send a great message to the world from a nation that claims moral leadership on the issue.”

    But Charles finds himself in “a unique position,” Dimbleby added.

    “He is the only head of state who has a very long track record on insisting that climate change is a threat to the future of humanity … He speaks with great authority — but of course on terms from which the government will not dissent, because he has an overriding commitment, regardless of his own views, to abide by the constitutional obligations of the head of state in this country.”

    Others see the speech as a major test for Charles.

    “This is one of the most significant speeches he’ll make as king,” said Craig Prescott, a constitutional expert and lecturer in law at the Royal Holloway university.

    Prescott noted the speech will be watched closely for clues as to how Charles maintains “political impartiality while pursuing the environmental issue — striking the right balance.”

    “There will be some to-ing and fro-ing between Downing Street and the Palace,” he added. “But fundamentally he has to comply with any advice he gets.”

    As is the convention, Downing Street declined to comment on any discussions with Buckingham Palace. The Palace did not respond to a request for comment.

    Fossil fuel politics

    The king is attending the summit at the invitation of its hosts, the United Arab Emirates — a sign of close ties between the British establishment and the Gulf monarchies presiding over some of the world’s biggest oil and gas-producing countries.

    It’s a connection some view as a potential asset for British climate diplomacy.  

    The then Prince Charles addresses the audience at COP26 | Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images

    “Trust between these royal families and institutions could provide the chance to have candid conversations” on issues such as fossil fuel reduction and the need to expand renewable energy supply, said Edward Davey, head of the U.K office of the World Resources Institute, where the king is patron.

    “One could imagine those issues being discussed in a respectful way, in a way that perhaps other leaders couldn’t achieve.”

    “I think it’s perfectly possible for the sovereign and the PM to both attend a COP and for them both to play a complementary role,” Davey added.

    Others are much more skeptical. “[The king] has a lot of close friends in the Middle East who are massive producers of oil,” said Graham Smith, boss of the Republic campaign group, which wants to abolish the British monarchy.

    “They can use him as a point of access to the British state because he has direct access to the government, and whatever he says to government is entirely secretive.”

    Cameron, meanwhile, has his own close ties to the UAE and — before his return to government — took on a teaching post at New York University Abu Dhabi earlier this year.

    Negotiation confusion

    The U.K.’s big three will be joined in Dubai by Energy Secretary — and Sunak ally — Claire Coutinho. But the head of the British delegation is a junior minister, Graham Stuart, who does not attend Cabinet.

    While the country will be officially arguing — alongside the EU — for a “phase-out of unabated fossil fuels,” Stuart sparked confusion earlier this month when he suggested to MPs that he was not troubled by the distinction between a “phase-out” (a total end to production of fossil fuels, where carbon capture is not applied) and a “phase-down,” the softer language preferred by the summit’s president, UAE national oil company boss Sultan Al-Jaber.

    Chris Skidmore, an MP and climate activist in Sunak’s Conservative party, and the author of a government-commissioned report on net zero policy, said Stuart was wrong if he thought the distinction was just “semantics.”

    “The fate of the world is resting on a distinction between phase-out and phase-down. But the U.K. finds itself now [unable] to argue for phase-out because it’s joined the phase-down club.

    “That in itself puts us in an entirely different strategic position to where we were.”

    Climate brain drain

    London’s climate diplomatic corps are still well-respected around the world, said the same European diplomat quoted above. Even with Sunak’s loosening of net zero policies, the U.K. is seen to be in the group of countries, alongside the EU, leading the push for strong action on cutting emissions.

    And there is a chance Cameron’s appointment will see more effort going into the U.K.’s global reputation on climate, according to Skidmore.

    Citizen scientist Pat Stirling checks the quality of the River Wye water in Hay-on-Wye | Darren Staples/AFP via Getty Images

    “It was under his premiership that the U.K. played a leading role in helping to get the Paris Agreement [to limit global warming] signed through … It will be interesting to see if he comes to COP and wants to play on the opportunities for the U.K. to demonstrate its climate credentials,” he said.

    But the team that pulled off a relatively successful COP26 now has significantly less firepower, said one former U.K. climate official, who warned their efforts risk being undermined by No. 10’s approach to fossil fuels.

    “There was a brain drain of experts working on climate, [the sort of] officials that could help hold government to account internally and try to maintain the level of ambition that we needed,” the former official said.

    This spring, the U.K. scrapped the dedicated role of climate envoy, held by the experienced diplomat Nick Bridge since 2017. The remaining team of climate diplomats have been left frustrated, the former official said, by changes to domestic climate policy driven by a Downing Street operation fixated with next year’s U.K. general election, without consideration for how they might affect Britain’s negotiating position on the world stage.

    “When Sunak gave his speech in September [rolling back some interim green targets], his team didn’t even realize that a U.N. climate action summit was happening in New York,” the former official said. “His team aren’t thinking in this way. For them it’s just about votes and the election.”

    The risk, said the European diplomat, is that countries at COP28 pushing for softer targets on fossil fuels — likely to include the Gulf states, China and Russia — could point to Sunak’s statements on a “proportionate, pragmatic” approach to net zero as a reason to ignore the U.K. and its allies when they call for higher ambition.

    “This will happen,” the European diplomat said. “They can point to the U.K.’s prime minister and say — ‘Look what the U.K. is doing with its own climate ambitions. So why are you being such a hard-ass about ours?’”

    As for Cameron’s potential impact at the FCDO, the European diplomat was skeptical.

    “It was a big surprise for everybody, but we’re not sure what he can do,” they said. “Maybe he can call a referendum on the climate?”

    Emilio Casalicchio contributed reporting.

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    Charlie Cooper

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  • UAE plotted to use COP28 to push for oil and gas deals, leaked notes show

    UAE plotted to use COP28 to push for oil and gas deals, leaked notes show

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    The world’s top climate summit has become embroiled in a hypocrisy scandal, days before the start of key talks.

    The United Arab Emirates (UAE) schemed to use its position as host country of the imminent COP28 United Nations climate talks to discuss oil and gas deals with more than a dozen countries, leaked documents published by the BBC show.

    Briefing notes prepared by the UAE’s COP28 team for meetings with foreign governments during the summit, which starts Thursday in Dubai, include talking points from the Emirati state oil and renewable energy companies, according to documents published Monday by the Centre for Climate Reporting.

    Germany, for example, is to be told that the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) — whose CEO, Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, is COP28’s president — “stand[s] ready to expand LNG supplies to Germany.”

    The briefing notes for China say that ADNOC is “willing to jointly evaluate international LNG opportunities (Mozambique, Canada, and Australia).”

    They also propose telling oil-rich giants Saudi Arabia and Venezuela that “there is no conflict between sustainable development of any country’s natural resources and its commitment to climate change.”

    With COP28 just days away, the leaked documents have cast a shadow over the start of the crucial forum.

    Zakia Khattabi, Belgium’s climate minister, told POLITICO: “If confirmed, these news reports add to the existing concerns regarding the COP28 presidency. The credibility of the U.N. climate negotiations is essential and is at stake here.”

    The documents also sparked an outcry from climate NGOs.

    In a statement, Greenpeace’s Policy Coordinator Kaisa Kosonen said, “if the allegations are true, this is totally unacceptable and a real scandal.”

    “The climate summit leader should be focused on advancing climate solutions impartially, not backroom deals that are fuelling the crisis,” Kosonen said.

    “The significant representation of EU and European countries in this list is alarming and a direct contradiction to the EU’s position to achieve a phase out of fossil fuels at this year’s COP,” Chiara Martinelli, director of Climate Action Network Europe, said in a written statement to POLITICO.

    “Any deal with the UAE’s oil and gas companies is a slap in the face of the U.N. process on climate change,” Martinelli added.

    The documents also include estimates of ADNOC’s commercial interests in the targeted countries, as well as an outline of energy infrastructure projects led by Masdar, the UAE’s state renewable energy company.

    ADNOC’s business ties with China, for example, are valued at $15 billion over the past year, while those with the United Kingdom are worth $4 billion and the Netherlands’ stand at $2 billion.

    Every year, the country hosting COP appoints a president to lead negotiations between countries. The president meets foreign dignitaries and is expected to “rais[e] ambition to tackle climate change internationally,” according to the U.N.

    Home to some of the largest oil reserves in the world, the UAE has attracted criticism for appointing al-Jaber as COP president in spite of his role as chief of the country’s national oil company. Al-Jaber is also chairman of the board of directors of the national renewable energy company.

    In a statement, a COP28 spokesperson said: “The documents referred to in the BBC article are inaccurate and were not used by COP28 in meetings. It is extremely disappointing to see the BBC use unverified documents in their reporting.”

    This article has been updated to clarify Ahmed al-Jaber’s role at the national renewable energy company and to add comments fro, COP28 and Greenpeace.

    Barbara Moens contributed reporting.

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    Nicolas Camut

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