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The 2025 holiday shopping season is approaching, punctuating the end of a year filled with economic uncertainty. As a result, businesses should be preparing for a consumer landscape shaped by equal parts optimism and caution.
Findings from several recently published studies indicate that shoppers are expected to be highly intentional, balancing value and convenience as they navigate economic pressures. Understanding these behavioral shifts will be key for businesses aiming to capture attention and loyalty in a competitive and fickle marketplace.
According to Adobe’s online shopping forecast, published in October, the 2025 holiday season is expected to produce slower but still record-breaking growth in e-commerce. The deceleration is attributed to ongoing economic uncertainty, inflation, and tighter consumer budgets. Ryder’s 2025 e-commerce consumer study, published in September, echoes these findings, reporting that 44 percent of shoppers plan to reduce 2025 holiday spending compared to 2024.
That said, however, 28 percent of consumers said they don’t plan to make any changes in spending, even if that means purchasing fewer items, and 10 percent plan to make more purchases, even if that means spending more. To capture the attention of cautious spenders, focus on offering clear value and flexible purchasing options.
Holiday purchasing decisions are being driven by a mix of cost-saving factors
Free shipping remains the most powerful motivator for shoppers, according to Ryder’s study, with 76 percent of respondents reporting it as more likely than any other factor to influence their 2025 holiday purchasing decisions. The second most likely factor to influence consumers’ holiday purchasing decisions was sales and discounts (64 percent), followed by free returns (31 percent), emphasizing the importance of transparent, customer-friendly return policies for brands aiming to win over cautious holiday shoppers. Notably, 94 percent of respondents selected at least one of these as a top-three factor in their holiday purchase decisions.
Another anticipated trend from Adobe’s holiday shopping forecast is the dominance of mobile commerce, which is being forecast to account for a record 56.1 percent of all online spending. Similarly, 50 percent of respondents in Ryder’s consumer study said they plan to conduct 2025 holiday shopping using mobile apps; however, additional findings suggest 2025 holiday shopping activity will be well spread across channels. Ryder’s study revealed that 74 percent of online shoppers also plan to shop in physical retail stores, along with 73 percent on e-commerce marketplaces, 70 percent on store/brand websites, and 23 percent on social media marketplaces.
Maintaining a seamless omnichannel presence appeals to shoppers because it allows them to move effortlessly between online, mobile, and in-store experiences—whichever they happen to be embracing at any given moment. They want to be able to enjoy consistency in branding, pricing, and customer service as they browse, check inventory, redeem promotions, and complete purchases, wherever it’s most convenient. This flexibility builds trust, saves time, and makes the shopping journey feel easy and enjoyable, which ultimately increases satisfaction, loyalty, and conversion rates across every channel.
The 2025 holiday season is bringing in a tide of consumers that are more discerning, digitally fluent, and value-driven than ever. While shoppers continue to prize deals, free shipping, and flexible payment options, they’re also blending digital convenience with the tactile experience offered by in-store shopping. The brands and retailers that will earn their attention and business will be those that anticipate these hybrid behaviors, aligning promotions, fulfillment, and customer engagement across all channels. Combining operational agility with authentic connection will position businesses to not only meet consumers’ expectations unique to the holiday season, but also strengthen loyalty well into the year ahead.
The opinions expressed here by Inc.com columnists are their own, not those of Inc.com.
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Steve Sensing
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