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Tag: Consumer Price Index

  • CPI report shows inflation rose at a 2.7% annual pace in December, in line with forecasts


    The Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 2.7% in the final month of 2025, in line with economists’ forecasts, capping a year when many Americans felt squeezed by price pressures.

    By the numbers

    The CPI was expected to rise 2.6% on an annual basis last month, according to economists surveyed by financial data firm FactSet.

    The CPI tracks the changes in a basket of goods and services typically bought by consumers, such as food and apparel.

    The latest CPI reading closes out a year marked by economic resilience alongside lingering price pressures. Inflation stayed at or below 3% throughout 2025, well below the pandemic peak of 9.1% in June 2022.

    Even so, the CPI climbed for several months in 2025 in the wake of the Trump administration’s tariff announcements, although the levies didn’t reignite inflation to the extent that some economists had predicted. The tariff impact was more muted on inflation than predicted because many retailers swallowed some tariff costs rather than passing them on directly to customers. 

    However, cooling inflation did not translate into price relief. Prices continued to rise, leaving many households feeling pinched and complicating efforts to save for retirement or buy a home.

    “Inflation remains a challenge, with core PCE inflation holding above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for 55 months,” noted Seema Shah, chief global strategist at investment firm Principal Asset Management, in a Tuesday email. 

    The Federal Reserve cut rates three times in the final months of 2025 to counter a cooling labor market, despite inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2% target. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said labor-market headwinds outweighed the risk of renewed price pressures. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for Jan. 27 to 28.

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  • ‘Inflation will surprise to the downside in 2026’: Why Wall Street expects juiced economy, stock gains this year

    Investors may be “having a cake and eating it” in 2026, with Wall Street strategists predicting stock market gains driven by Fed rate cuts, tax incentives, and lower-than-expected inflation.

    As Wall Street prepares for this week’s highly anticipated monthly Consumer Price Index report, which is expected to stay unchanged from the prior month at an annual increase of 2.7%, strategists are pointing to cheap oil prices and easing shelter costs as a sign that prices may be cooling.

    “Our view is that inflation will surprise to the downside in 2026,” Longview Economics global economist and chief market strategist Chris Watling told Yahoo Finance last week.

    It’s not all good news on the economic front. Last month’s employment report, released on Friday, showed the economy added fewer jobs than expected to cap a weak 2025.

    But a cooling labor market gives the Federal Reserve reason to cut rates this year, which could push bond yields lower. That’s especially true if President Trump’s pick to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term ends in May shifts the central bank in a more dovish direction.

    Lower yields mean cheaper borrowing costs, which can boost economic activity and keep corporate capital expenditures high.

    “You could really get an economy pretty juiced as we go through this year, because you can have the capex, and you can have the sort of consumption starting to improve as housing fixes up and bond yields move lower,” Watling added. “This is what I call having a cake and eating it.”

    Wall Street is already spotting “green shoots” as companies take advantage of the depreciation tax benefits from Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act, signed into law in July.

    “If you are a CFO of a company, and the OBBB allows you to get 100% depreciation for capex in one year … you will absolutely accelerate as much of your multi-year capex spend into 2026 as possible, or risk getting fired for missing those tax benefits,” Nomura Securities equity derivatives analyst Charlie McElligott wrote in a note last week.

    Economic growth happens even as affordability challenges maintain a K-shaped divide, with the bottom half of consumers struggling to cover basic needs. In a nod to affordability ahead of the midterms, Trump recently criticized firms like Blackstone for buying single-family homes as investments, a hot-button issue for voters.

    Read more: What is a ‘K-shaped’ economy, and what’s causing the divide?

    Rents have started to ease after years of relentless growth. That’s one reason Goldman Sachs expects the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index to trend toward the Fed’s 2% target. The firm also noted that the one-time price bump from last year’s tariffs is fading, which should further ease inflation.

    “Healthy economic and revenue growth, continued profit strength among the largest US stocks, and an emerging productivity boost from AI adoption should lift S&P 500 EPS by 12% in 2026 and 10% in 2027,” Goldman’s Ben Snider wrote on Wednesday.

    The latest data shows worker productivity in the third quarter grew at its fastest clip in two years, as businesses spent heavily on AI and pulled back on hiring.

    That productivity boost is expected to broaden the stock market rally, as the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) touched all-time highs last week. Materials (XLB), Industrials (XLI), Energy (XLE), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were some of the leading sectors as investors trimmed tech exposure.

    “We’re producing a lot more with less people,” RCM chief economist Joe Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance on Friday, though he believes the full impact of AI is still a couple of years away.

    Wall Street strategists predict stock market gains in 2026 driven by Fed rate cuts, tax incentives, and lower-than-expected inflation. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig) · ASSOCIATED PRESS

    Against that backdrop, strategists are watching for sectors and companies positioned to benefit from leaner headcounts and growing AI adoption.

    “Pay attention to high human capital businesses — so let’s say finance companies, retail companies, consulting, accounting type businesses,” Clark Capital CIO Sean Clark told Yahoo Finance recently.

    “Quality value companies are now starting to experience the benefit of this AI revolution, driving earnings, driving productivity, [and] driving margins higher,” he added.

    However, some warn that if the labor market is replaced by AI too quickly, it could pose a sudden threat to the broader economy.

    “We term it as the dark side of AI,” Tim Urbanowicz, chief investment strategist at Innovative Capital Management, told Yahoo Finance. Urbanowicz estimates that 15%-20% of the layoffs at the end of last year were related to artificial intelligence.

    “If you start to see the jobs market or labor market starting to be replaced by AI in a major way, we think that becomes problematic,” he added.

    StockStory aims to help individual investors beat the market.
    StockStory aims to help individual investors beat the market.

    Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.

    Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices

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  • As beef prices rise, small butcher shops adapt to changing demand


    Tolland, Connecticut — Stephen Boyer has owned The Country Butcher in Tolland, Connecticut, for nearly 40 years. He says the holidays are one of their busiest times of the year.

    “It’s about 20-25% of our yearly sales that we do during this four to six week portion of the year,” Boyer said.

    But this year, those holiday orders may come with a higher price tag, with beef steak up 15% compared to last year, according to the Consumer Price Index. Pork and chicken are up just 1%.

    “It’s a supply and demand issue. We’ve also had issues with drought last year,” Boyer said.

    Disease is a growing concern, too. The domestic cattle population has dropped to the lowest level since 1973.

    As a small business, Boyer can’t compete with the bigger retailers who have more purchasing power.

    “The big chains, they’re taking big chunks of that and that does affect us. That’ll affect pricing and availability for us,” Boyer said.

    With higher prices, customers are looking for alternatives.

    “People have definitely made some change in their buying habits. We have seen our sausage sales spike up probably about 20% more than they were at this point last year. So I think people are looking for alternatives,” Boyer said.

    After 36 years in business, Boyer remains optimistic, even when times are tough.

    “We’ve seen the ups and downs in beef and pork and poultry and you know, what we always get through it. You just have to give it a little time,” Boyer said.

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  • How butchers are adapting to changing demand as beef prices rise


    How butchers are adapting to changing demand as beef prices rise – CBS News









































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    As beef prices rise, small butcher shops are adapting to changing demand. Kelly O’Grady reports.

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  • In his national address, President Trump claimed he’s bringing prices down. Here’s what the data shows.

    After nearly two months without new consumer price data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest report Thursday, providing a glimpse at energy costs, food prices and other everyday expenses.

    According to the consumer price index, inflation slowed in November, with prices rising 0.2% over the 0.3% observed in September. (BLS could not collect October data because of the government shutdown.)

    Still, inflation remains stubbornly high. Compared with a year ago, consumer costs are up about 2.7%.

    Thursday’s report came just a day after President Donald Trump delivered a prime-time address from the White House in which he largely discussed affordability concerns, from housing costs to grocery prices, saying the U.S. is “poised for an economic boom.”

    “The last administration and their allies in Congress looted our treasury for trillions of dollars, driving up prices and everything at levels never seen before. I am bringing those high prices down and bringing them down very fast.”

    In truth, of the 11 everyday costs tracked month to month by the consumer price index, only five have decreased since January.

    Here’s a closer look at the president’s claims and how prices are changing, or not, during his second term in office.

    To see the average U.S. price of a specific good, click on the drop-down arrow below and select the item you wish to view.

    Eggs

    In the wake of all-time highs set earlier this year, egg prices have collapsed in recent months.

    That downward trend continued in November, with the price dropping a whopping 63 cents from September and settling at $2.86 per dozen. It’s the first time since June 2024 that the average nationwide price for a dozen large Grade A eggs registered below the $3 mark.

    This steep drop-off in prices is a result of a declining number of bird flu cases in commercial and backyard flocks. In the first two months of 2025, tens of millions of birds were affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza across 39 states, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. With entire flocks culled to prevent the spread of the virus, the egg supply was strained, leading to shortages in stores and record costs for consumers.

    Following another spike in cases in the early fall, the number of new infections appears to be subsiding again, with less than 2 million U.S. birds affected in the past two months. More notably, zero outbreaks among egg-laying chickens have been reported in November and December.

    Consequently, costs are “falling rapidly” as highlighted by Trump in his prime-time address earlier this week.

    “The price of eggs is down 82% since March, and everything else is falling rapidly. And it’s not done yet, but boy are we making progress. Nobody can believe what’s going on.”

    While egg prices have dropped considerably from March’s record high of $6.23 per dozen, the difference of roughly $3.37 from March to November represents a 54% decrease — not the 82% cited by the president.

    In a statement given to the Tribune, a White House official clarified that he was referring to wholesale costs, not retail prices.

    Milk

    The cost of milk also saw a measurable decrease from the previous month, falling 13 cents.

    A gallon of fresh, fortified whole milk is now priced at $4.00 — that’s 2.5% less than it was in December 2024, before Trump took office.

    Bread

    The average price of white bread fell in November to $1.79 per pound, marking a three-year low for the pantry staple. Time for bread pudding, anyone?

    Bananas

    The cost of bananas fell slightly from September’s all-time highs, dropping just a fraction of a cent to $0.66 per pound in November.

    Recent price inflation is likely a byproduct of the president’s trade war, with tariffs imposed on the country’s top banana suppliers like Guatemala, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Colombia, Honduras and Mexico — all of which are currently subject to an import tax of at least 10%.

    But in mid-November, Trump took action to combat rising grocery costs, announcing that some agricultural products would be exempt from tariffs due to “current domestic demand for certain products” and “current domestic capacity to produce certain products.”

    Both fresh and dried bananas were among the listed exemptions, indicating that lower prices may be around the corner.

    Oranges

    No data on orange prices was available for November.

    However, in September, the cost of navel oranges was listed at $1.80 per pound, less than a cent shy of record highs and nearly 18% more than they were at the start of the Trump administration.

    Drastically low domestic orange production combined with steep tariffs on foreign growers have been helping to push costs skyward. But, as with bananas, oranges are now exempt from most reciprocal tariffs.

    Tomatoes

    As of November, the cost of field-grown tomatoes was $1.83 per pound. That price is 8 cents lower than the previous month of data and down roughly 12% since Trump took power.

    The change is somewhat abnormal given the growing season, as prices typically rise in the fall and peak in the early winter months, and could be attributable to the Trump administration’s recent course reversal on many of its tomato tariffs.

    Chicken

    The cost of fresh, whole chicken fell for a fourth consecutive month, to $2.04 per pound — its lowest price in a year.

    Rising feed costs and the effects of bird flu on the poultry supply chain have driven persistently higher prices, but with the number of cases dropping again, we could see lower prices in the new year.

    Still, the average cost is only about 2 cents less than it was when President Joe Biden left the White House.

    Ground beef

    Ground beef is getting more expensive.

    After shoppers saw some relief in September from climbing costs, the price of ground beef jumped another 18 cents.

    Rising costs can be attributed to a confluence of factors. The U.S. cattle inventory is the lowest it’s been in almost 75 years, and severe drought in parts of the country has further reduced the feed supply, per the USDA. Additionally, steep tariff rates on top beef importers also played a part in higher prices stateside, but as of Nov. 13 high-quality cuts, processed beef and live cattle are exempt from most countries’ levies.

    Still, since the change of administrations, ground beef costs have ballooned by 18% — translating to $1 per pound price increases at the grocery store.

    As of November, a pound of 100% ground beef chuck would set you back about $6.50.

    Electricity

    Electric costs have also been steadily rising.

    At approximately 19 cents per kilowatt-hour, the current price of electricity is a fraction of a cent off August’s high. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average American household uses 899 kWh every four weeks, translating to a monthly bill of about $170.

    Thankfully, the White House appears to be working to mitigate mounting costs. In his presidential address, Trump claimed that within the next 12 months his administration will have opened 1,600 new electrical generating plants.

    “Prices on electricity and everything else will fall dramatically,” Trump said.

    For many Americans, relief is needed. Since last December, the average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour has increased more than 7%.

    Gasoline

    Declining gas prices were another highlight of Trump’s Wednesday night remarks.

    The cost of gasoline has tumbled from the record-setting prices Americans saw three summers ago under Biden, and just last month, the price at the pump dropped more than 10 cents per gallon.

    “On day one I declared a national energy emergency,” Trump said. “Gasoline is now under $2.50 a gallon in much of the country. In some states, it by the way, just hit $1.99 a gallon.”

    According to the latest CPI data, the average nationwide cost for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline is $3.23. And though prices are noticeably lower than they were two to three years ago, that average remains higher than it was just a year ago and up nearly 3% during the Trump presidency.

    Prices in Chicago, meanwhile, are about the same month-over-month, costing an average of $3.29 per gallon, according to EIA data.

    Natural gas

    Bucking its previous downward trend, piped utility gas, or natural gas, is another expense that’s climbing. The nationwide cost jumped 3 cents in November, landing at $1.64 per therm.

    On average, Americans are paying close to 8% more to heat their homes, ovens and stovetops than when Biden left office. Year-over-year, that gap is even more drastic: a roughly 10% change or difference of 15 cents per therm.

    Claire Malon

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  • CPI report shows inflation rose at a 2.7% annual pace in November, cooler than expected

    The Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 2.7% in November, cooler than economists had forecast and providing a sign that price pressures may be easing.

    By the numbers

    The CPI was expected to rise 3% on an annual basis last month, according to economists surveyed by financial data firm FactSet. In the most recent inflation reading, from September, the CPI rate rose 3% on an annual basis.

    November’s cooler inflation data comes after prices had inched higher throughout much of the year, with economists pointing to the impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs. 

    The CPI tracks the changes in a basket of goods and services typically bought by consumers, providing a snapshot of price changes on everyday items such as food and apparel. 

    So-called core inflation, or CPI data that excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.6% over the past 12 months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists polled by FactSet had predicted a 3% increase for that measure. 

    Food prices rose 2.6% on an annual basis in November, down from 3.1% in September.

    Thursday’s report provides the first glimpse of recent inflation data since late October, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics released September CPI data

    Data collection was disrupted due to the government shutdown, which delayed the September and November CPI reports. The Labor Department on Thursday said it didn’t collect October data due to the shutdown, but said it was able to retroactively acquire some non-survey data for the month.

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  • Legal expert warns of buy now, pay later plans this holiday shopping season

    DENVER — As you’re out holiday shopping, one legal expert warns to keep an eye out for buy now, pay later (BNPL) plans. With tighter budgets, they can look enticing as they can split large purchases into smaller, more manageable ones over a monthly basis.

    However, the lawyer Denver7 spoke with said BNPL plans can easily rope you into more debt, and there aren’t many protections in place to keep you out of trouble.

    76% of Americans use BNPL plans, 72% of GenZ uses them, and 50% of users have already missed at least one payment, according to LegalShield.

    Rebecca Carter is a principal at the law firm Friedman, Framme & Thrush. Carter told Denver7 she is seeing more people calling her office asking for advice after falling into debt with buy now, pay later plans. She said there’s not much that can be done legally after you’ve signed the terms.

    “It’s not as though [these companies] are doing anything unlawful,” Carter said. “Protection really comes in with spreading education and understanding the potential for penalty. I wish there was more, but [there’s not].”

    Prices for all goods rose 0.3% in September after rising 0.4% in August, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report. It continues a trend of rising inflation amid interest rate cuts aimed at jump-starting a slowing job market.

    It has made holiday shopping budgets tighter this year, so Carter said to be mindful and educate yourself and your kids about these plans.

    “Creditors have an interest in getting paid back,” Carter said. “You have an interest in preserving your credit, you know, and trying to be proactive earlier on.”

    She said it can be easy to find yourself over-spending when you rely on BNPL plans and then finding yourself in credit trouble down the road.

    Denver7 | Your Voice: Get in touch with Dan Grossman

    Denver7 morning anchor Dan Grossman shares stories that have an impact in all of Colorado’s communities, but specializes in covering consumer and economic issues. If you’d like to get in touch with Dan, fill out the form below to send him an email.

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  • Has inflation eased under Trump? It depends on the measure

    President Donald Trump says he’s improved Americans’ lives when it comes to the economy and inflation, two areas that polls show are top of mind for voters.

    “Energy costs are way down,” Trump told service members on the USS George Washington in Japan on Oct. 28. “Gasoline prices are way down. Grocery prices are way down. We have a little problem with beef. We’re gonna get that down very quickly. But the prices are way down. … Inflation has been defeated.”

    He also said at a lunch in South Korea the next day, “We’re down to a very low rate of inflation, 2.7%,” calling it “almost a perfect number.” It’s actually 3%.

    Two days earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also touted the administration’s progress on inflation.

    “When we came in, it was ‘egg-flation, egg-flation, egg-flation,’” Bessent said Oct. 26 on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “You know, egg prices are down. Gasoline prices are down. Overall, the inflation since President Trump has come in has come down.”

    On eggs and gasoline, Bessent has a point. Since December 2024, the month before Trump entered office, the price of eggs has fallen. And since the week of Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration, the price of gasoline has declined from $3.11 to $3.03 a gallon. (Trump was less accurate: Energy, especially electricity, is up, as are groceries. Trump was correct that prices of both ground beef and steaks are up.) 

    But it’s possible to find particular items with falling prices even as inflation as a whole rises. Is Bessent right that inflation “has come down” overall?

    It depends on what metric you use. The most basic overall measure of inflation is steady, or even up a little bit, depending on the time frame. But an inflation measure that excludes volatile food and energy costs is down slightly.

    The White House did not respond to an inquiry for this article.

    The most basic measure shows that overall inflation hasn’t fallen

    We first turned to the consumer price index, a widely tracked metric from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. While the federal government has paused calculating some key economic statistics during the ongoing shutdown, it still reported the consumer price index for September in order to produce an annual cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security.

    When economists study inflation, they typically look at the change in the consumer price index compared with one year earlier. Using this metric, inflation isn’t down under Trump.

    During Trump’s first three full months in office — February, March and April — the year-over-year inflation rate fell each month. It began rising in May, June, July and September. (Inflation remained steady in August, but it didn’t fall.)

    By September, the year-over-year inflation rate was 3% — right where it started in January (when Joe Biden turned over the presidency to Trump) and slightly higher than the 2.9% rate in December 2024, Biden’s last full month in office. The current 3% rate is higher than it was during the final six months of Biden’s term.

    Either way, by this metric, inflation did not come down under Trump. The upward pattern of the most recent data points are worrisome, said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the center-right American Action Forum.

    After 40-year-high levels of inflation in 2022 under Biden, the Federal Reserve “had engineered a remarkably successful path to return to 2 percent, which has been disrupted by, especially, Trump’s tariffs,” Holtz-Eakin said. “Now, inflation is at 3 percent and rising. I expect it to keep rising.”

    Calculating inflation beyond food and energy does show a modest drop

    To better grasp what’s going on with inflation, economists sometimes prefer to strip out the volatile sectors of food and energy. When those are removed from the analysis, Bessent has a point: Inflation has eased under Trump, at least modestly.

    The inflation rate minus food and energy was 3% year over year in September — lower than either December 2024 (3.2%) or January 2025 (3.3%).

    Under Trump, wages are outpacing inflation

    Price increases matter most to people when their wages aren’t keeping up. 

    During virtually all of Biden’s term, wages failed to keep pace with inflation. 

    Trump has a more positive story to tell so far: On his watch, wages are rising faster than prices, compared with their January levels.

    However, it’s still early in Trump’s tenure, cautioned the free-market oriented Private Enterprise Research Center at Texas A&M University. 

    The comparative data on inflation and wages isn’t “all that telling about where we might find ourselves in the coming months,” the center wrote Sept. 22. “The first seven months of a 48-month term in office is much too short to render judgement.” The center also said Trump’s tariff policies could reverse some of these trends.

    Our ruling

    Bessent said, “Overall, the inflation since President Trump has come in has come down.”

    Overall, year-over-year inflation has risen modestly to 3% on Trump’s watch, compared with 2.9% in Biden’s last full month in office. After stripping out volatile food and energy prices, which economists often do to analyze price patterns, the inflation rate has declined modestly under Trump, from 3.2% in Biden’s last full month in office to 3% now under Trump.

    Wages have outpaced inflation under Trump, although economists warn that his tariff policies could put that achievement at risk.

    The statement is partially accurate but leaves out important details, so we rate it Half True.

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  • CPI report shows inflation continued to climb in September, although at a cooler pace than forecast

    The Consumer Price Index climbed at an annual rate of 3% in September, coming in below economists’ forecasts as the impact of President Trump’s tariffs remain muted.

    By the numbers

    Economists polled by financial data firm FactSet had forecast CPI rose at a 3.1% annual clip last month. The CPI measures price changes in a basket of goods and services typically bought by consumers.

    While most federal economic data releases have been suspended during the government shutdown, the Department of Labor is making an exception for the September CPI data. That’s because the inflation rate is needed to determine the Social Security Administration’s annual cost-of-living adjustment for beneficiaries, which is also scheduled to be announced on Friday.

    The September CPI report could be the last inflation data economists see for a while. The Labor Department is unlikely to release inflation figures next month because of difficulty collecting data during the shutdown, the Trump administration said Friday in an email. 

    What economists say

    Inflation is inching higher partly due to the Trump administration’s tariffs, according to economists. U.S. businesses are eating some of the costs in the form of lower profits, which has blunted the impact of the import duties on consumers. 

    Still, companies are also passing on as much as 55% of those import taxes to consumers in the form of higher prices, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis. Other research shows a lower rate of passthrough tariff costs to shoppers. 

    “Tariffs have put upward pressure on prices, particularly in the goods-producing sector of the economy,” Brandon Zureick, senior managing director and chief economist at investment firm Johnson Investment Counsel, told CBS News. “We’re definitely a little higher than where we started the year, and above the Fed’s target” of 2% annual inflation. 

    Mr. Trump has pointed to tariffs as a tool for protecting U.S. manufacturing, as well as to convince businesses to reshore their factories within the country, and for generating billions of new federal revenue. 

    Prices today are rising far more slowly than during their peak growth in June 2022, when the CPI hit a 40-year high of 9.1% and set the Federal Reserve on a path of hiking interest rates. Higher borrowing costs can temper inflation because it makes loans and credit cards more expensive, which can cause consumers and businesses to pare spending.

    What does the CPI mean for interest rates?

    The recent rise in inflation is complicating the Fed’s decision on interest rates, with the central bank scheduled to make its next rate decision on Oct. 29. But today’s inflation data could provide additional support for another cut, analysts said Friday.

    “There was little in today’s benign CPI report to ‘spook’ the Fed and we continue to expect further easing at next week’s Fed meeting,” Lindsay Rosner, head of multisector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said in a Friday email. “A December rate cut also remains likely with the current data drought providing the Fed with little reason to deviate from the path set out in the dot plot.”

    Still, inflation is edging higher, which could be an argument for keeping rates steady. But at the same time, the job market is experiencing a sharp slowdown in hiring, which Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited last month when the central bank made its first rate cut of 2025. Lower borrowing costs can help support the job market by making it cheaper for businesses to borrow, encouraging them to expand and hire. 

    That means the combination of rising inflation and weakening job growt is putting the Fed’s dual mandate — to keep both inflation and unemployment low — in conflict. Powell said earlier this month that the risks posed by the labor market may be outweighing concerns about rising inflation.

    “The Fed has recognized the trends in the labor market as changing their directives,” Zureick said. “We’ve been dangerously close to a zero level of job growth for a few months.”

    Given the Fed’s focus on the labor market risks, the higher CPI rate isn’t likely to derail expectations for a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting later this month, economists say. 

    The probability of a 0.25-percentage point cut at the Fed’s Oct. 29 meeting is pegged at 98.9%, according to CME FedWatch.

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  • Instant coffee prices are rising. Use this calculator to see other grocery prices

    U.S. inflation rose 3% in September compared to a year ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest data. The report shows food items like instant coffee and beef are getting pricier. Instant coffee prices in September were about 22% higher than last year. Prices went up by 0.5% from August to September. Roasted coffee drinkers, however, saw slight relief as prices dropped 0.6%. The Consumer Price Index, released by the BLS, is a common measure of inflation, as it shows the change over time in the prices consumers pay for goods and services. Inflation increased slightly by 0.3% from August to September, coming in lower than economists had predicted.Overall, meat prices saw a monthly increase of 1.6%. The average price for ground beef reached $6.32 per pound, up 12.9% from the year before.The release of the September report was delayed due to the government shutdown and would normally have been released on Oct. 15. It is the only economic data the BLS has released amid the shutdown and is used by the Social Security Administration to calculate next year’s annual cost-of-living adjustment for benefits.The White House on Friday said it’s unlikely the BLS will release October’s CPI because of the shutdown. Some grocery items, like eggs and lettuce, saw a decrease in prices. Click on the grocery items below to add them to your cart and see whether the total cost of your list has gone up or down. The total cost is based on the average CPI prices from September 2024 to September 2025. PHNjcmlwdCB0eXBlPSJ0ZXh0L2phdmFzY3JpcHQiPiFmdW5jdGlvbigpeyJ1c2Ugc3RyaWN0Ijt3aW5kb3cuYWRkRXZlbnRMaXN0ZW5lcigibWVzc2FnZSIsKGZ1bmN0aW9uKGUpe2lmKHZvaWQgMCE9PWUuZGF0YVsiZGF0YXdyYXBwZXItaGVpZ2h0Il0pe3ZhciB0PWRvY3VtZW50LnF1ZXJ5U2VsZWN0b3JBbGwoImlmcmFtZSIpO2Zvcih2YXIgYSBpbiBlLmRhdGFbImRhdGF3cmFwcGVyLWhlaWdodCJdKWZvcih2YXIgcj0wO3I8dC5sZW5ndGg7cisrKXtpZih0W3JdLmNvbnRlbnRXaW5kb3c9PT1lLnNvdXJjZSl0W3JdLnN0eWxlLmhlaWdodD1lLmRhdGFbImRhdGF3cmFwcGVyLWhlaWdodCJdW2FdKyJweCJ9fX0pKX0oKTs8L3NjcmlwdD4=

    U.S. inflation rose 3% in September compared to a year ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest data.

    The report shows food items like instant coffee and beef are getting pricier. Instant coffee prices in September were about 22% higher than last year. Prices went up by 0.5% from August to September. Roasted coffee drinkers, however, saw slight relief as prices dropped 0.6%.

    The Consumer Price Index, released by the BLS, is a common measure of inflation, as it shows the change over time in the prices consumers pay for goods and services. Inflation increased slightly by 0.3% from August to September, coming in lower than economists had predicted.

    Overall, meat prices saw a monthly increase of 1.6%. The average price for ground beef reached $6.32 per pound, up 12.9% from the year before.

    The release of the September report was delayed due to the government shutdown and would normally have been released on Oct. 15. It is the only economic data the BLS has released amid the shutdown and is used by the Social Security Administration to calculate next year’s annual cost-of-living adjustment for benefits.

    The White House on Friday said it’s unlikely the BLS will release October’s CPI because of the shutdown.

    Some grocery items, like eggs and lettuce, saw a decrease in prices.

    Click on the grocery items below to add them to your cart and see whether the total cost of your list has gone up or down. The total cost is based on the average CPI prices from September 2024 to September 2025.

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  • The government is belatedly releasing inflation data on Friday. Here’s what economists are expecting.

    A delayed inflation report on Friday is expected to deliver sobering data about the direction of U.S. prices, with economists forecasting that the Consumer Price Index in September rose at its fastest pace in 16 months. 

    CPI last month is projected to have risen 3.1% on an annual basis, which would be the highest since the inflation gauge hit 3.3% in May of 2024, according to economists polled by FactSet. The CPI measures price changes in a basket of goods and services typically bought by consumers.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the September CPI report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, or nine days later than it had originally been scheduled to issue the report before the U.S. government shutdown

    Most federal economic data releases have been suspended during the stalemate. The Department of Labor is making an exception for the September CPI data because the inflation rate is needed to determine the Social Security Administration’s annual cost-of-living adjustment for beneficiaries, which is also scheduled to be announced on Friday.

    Inflation has crept higher this year, edging farther away from the Federal Reserve’s annual 2% target, partly due to the Trump administration’s wide-ranging tariffs, according to economists. U.S. companies that import goods from other nations are on the hook for paying the tariffs, and they are passing on as much as 55% of those import taxes to consumers in the form of higher prices, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis.

    “The forthcoming September CPI data will confirm a renewed acceleration in inflation, with price momentum evident across both goods and services,” EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco predicted Thursday a research note. “The tariff impact is increasingly visible, though pass-through remains gradual and uneven.”

    Prices today are rising far more slowly than during their peak growth in June of 2022, when the CPI hit a 40-year high of 9.1% and spurred the Federal Reserve to ratchet up interest rates in a bid to quash inflation. When borrowing becomes more expensive, consumers and businesses tend to cut back on spending, which helps temper inflation. 

    But the recent uptick in inflation is souring some Americans on the economy, with 59% of those polled by CBS News earlier this month saying they feel the economy is getting worse. About two-thirds said they had noticed prices going up in recent weeks.

    How will inflation impact the Social Security COLA?

    The Social Security Administration on Friday is also expected to release its annual cost-of-living adjustment, basing its calculation on the inflation rate from July through September. 

    That yearly financial bump, which ensures that 75 million Social Security recipients don’t lose purchasing power as prices rise, is expected to come in at around 2.7%, slightly higher than the 2.5% increase beneficiaries received in 2025, according to the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group. 

    A 2.7% boost in benefits would lift the average monthly Social Security payment for retired workers by $54, from $2,008 to $2,062. Yet some advocates for senior citizens are concerned that retirees could face a financial pinch if prices continue to climb beyond their 2026 Social Security adjustment. 

    What’s the inflation outlook?

    Despite the recent rise in consumer prices, the Federal Reserve and most private economists expect inflation to ease next year. In September, the Fed forecast that the Personal Consumption Expenditures — a measure of consumer spending and the central bank’s preferred barometer of inflation — would show prices rising at a 3% annual rate in 2025, but then drop to 2.6% next year.

    The impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation has been more muted than what many economists were forecasting earlier this year, Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said in an email. Companies have helped blunt the impact by expanding their inventories before the tariffs took effect, as well as absorbing some of the costs in the form of lower profits, she said. 

    But there’s a risk those strategies might not work for long, she added. 

    “As inventories deplete, trade routes narrow and margins continue to shrink, firms may be forced to pass on higher costs to consumers,” she wrote. “As such, upside risks remain. If pricing pressures spill over into services, it could signal a broader and more persistent inflationary trend.”

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  • China’s Deflationary Pressures Ease Slightly

    China’s downward price pressures eased slightly in September, but not quite as much as expected, as Beijing ramps up efforts to curb excess capacity and bolster domestic demand.

    Data showing continued deflationary pressure in China comes as Premier Li Qiang renewed calls to double down on efforts to boost consumption, and crack down on pricing competition among businesses.

    Copyright ©2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

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  • Trump has repeatedly said the U.S. has “no inflation.” He’s

    President Donald Trump frequently touts his battle against higher prices, often by saying the U.S. currently has “no inflation.” 

    On Sept. 19, while meeting reporters in the Oval Office, Trump referenced his tariff policy, saying, “Even people that were against the tariffs, now they see the way they’re working. And by the way, with no inflation, with no problem, we’re just building up cash and we’re using that cash to reduce taxes, reduce debt, and other things.”

    It wasn’t the first time he said that. Since July 1, Trump has referred to the U.S. having “no inflation” 11 times at eight events — a radio interview, a bill signing, bilateral meetings with a foreign leader, gaggles with reporters, a Cabinet meeting, and a roundtable in Florida.

    In a Sept. 12 interview with Fox News, he hedged slightly, saying, “We have almost no inflation anymore.”

    By two measures — the inflation rate and the Federal Reserve’s target for “price stability” — the statement about no inflation is inaccurate. 

    Sign up for PolitiFact texts

    Trump’s statements about “no inflation” is also undercut by White House news releases, which on multiple occasions since July 1 have characterized the current level of inflation as beating expectations, not being zero. The news releases have used more cautious phrasing, describing inflation as “on target” and “low and stable.”

    When we asked the White House for evidence to back up Trump’s statements, White House spokesperson Kush Desai echoed the news releases’ language, saying, “President Trump is right: The days of Joe Biden’s debilitating inflation crisis are over. Since President Trump took office, inflation has been tracking at a low and stable 2.3 percent annualized rate and real wages for American workers are up.” 

    Inflation today is far lower than its 2022 peak under Biden, when the consumer price index — a widely tracked Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation metric — hit a four-decade high of about 9% year-over-year. 

    But there’s a difference between lower inflation and no inflation. 

    “Consumer price inflation is not zero, under any plausibly complete definition covering all the goods and services Americans purchase,” said Gary Burtless, an economist at the Brookings Institution, a Washington, D.C., think tank.

    Measuring by the inflation rate

    Trump is wrong by the literal inflation rate. In August, the year-over-year consumer price index increase was 2.9%, just a hair lower than its 3% level when Trump began his second term.

    Inflation eased after the 2022 peak, mostly on Biden’s watch. By the time Biden left office, inflation was down by about two-thirds from the 2022 peak.

    Measuring by the Federal Reserve’s target for “price stability”

    Has the inflation rate settled in at the Fed’s target? Here, too, the answer is no.

    Historically, the Federal Reserve has aimed for “price stability” of about 2% rather than a literal 0% inflation rate. To measure whether inflation is close to that 2% benchmark, the Fed uses personal consumption expenditures, a measurement that’s slightly different from the consumer price index.

    In July, the year-over-year change in personal consumption expenditures was about 2.6%, above the Fed’s 2% target. 

    If measuring “core inflation” by removing food and energy — an approach economists sometimes prefer, because it reduces the volatility of the index — the year-over-year change in personal consumption expenditures was about 3.5%.

    Is the inflation rate falling?

    Not only is the inflation rate not zero or 2%; it’s been creeping further and further away from those benchmarks.

    From February to April, the inflation rate declined. But then, prices began to rise.

    Three measures — the consumer price index, personal consumption expenditures and personal consumption expenditures minus food and energy — all reached their Trump second-term lows in April, then began rising. For the consumer price index minus food and energy, the inflection point came one month later, in May.

    Except for a few wiggles, the inflation rate has climbed every month since — in May, June, July and August.

    The inflation rates are now back to about where they were when Trump took office, but based on the trajectory, heading higher.

    Many categories have seen steadily increasing inflation during Trump’s second term, too. These include electricity (up 6.2% from August 2024 to August 2025), used vehicles (up 6%), medical care (up 3.4%), groceries (up 2.7%) and durable goods (up 1.9%).

    At least two major sectors have seen declining inflation rates this year — shelter (a broad category for housing) and tuition/child care — but they are outnumbered by sectors that have seen accelerating inflation. And both shelter and tuition/child care remain more expensive today than a year ago: 3.6% higher for shelter and 3.3% higher for tuition/child care.

    “I think there could be some room for the administration to highlight less inflation, so far, than economists predicted in response to his tariff policies, but not to claim no inflation,” said Tara Sinclair, a George Washington University economist and former Treasury Department deputy assistant secretary for macroeconomics under Biden.

    Our ruling

    Trump said the U.S. currently has “no inflation.” 

    By two measures — the inflation rate and the Federal Reserve’s target for “price stability” — the statement is inaccurate. 

    The inflation rate is not zero; it’s currently at 2.9% year over year. That’s higher than the Fed’s 2% “price stability” target. of 2%. And the inflation rate has been accelerating rather than easing for the past four months.

    We rate the statement False.

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  • Americans are feeling a lot worse about the state of the economy

    (CNN) — American consumers are downbeat about the economy, according to preliminary results of a monthly survey conducted by the University of Michigan.

    The index measuring consumer sentiment fell unexpectedly this month to 55.4 from 58.2 in August as inflation is on the rise and job prospects are worsening. September’s reading also represents a 21% decline compared to a year ago, well before President Donald Trump took office and raised tariffs on practically everything the country imports.

    In addition to inflation and the labor market, tariffs also remain a concern for consumers, Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director, noted.

    “Trade policy remains highly salient to consumers, with about 60% of consumers providing unprompted comments about tariffs during interviews,” Hsu, said in a statement, noting that the same thing happened in the previous month.

    Economists polled by FactSet had been anticipating a minor improvement in consumer sentiment from August. Despite sentiment that’s near historic lows in a survey that goes back to the early 1950s, consumers are still feeling slightly better about the economy now compared to April and May during Trump’s initial rollout of so-called “reciprocal” tariffs, according to prior readings.

    The survey also spotlights what appears to be an increasingly bifurcated economy between income classes, where higher-income Americans continue to spend relatively freely and are feeling more optimistic about the state of the economy, while lower and middle-income Americans are cutting back and are more worried.

    Whiffs of stagflation

    While the economy is nowhere close to where it was in the 1970s and 1980s, when the nation’s annual inflation rate and unemployment rate both hit double-digit levels, recent employment and inflation data have led to mounting concerns of stagflation – when the economy slows significantly while inflation accelerates.

    Consumer prices rose 0.4% last month, bringing the annual inflation rate to 2.9%, according to Consumer Price Index data released Thursday. Meanwhile, there’s a laundry list of recent data pointing to a weakening labor market.

    For example, first-time applications for unemployment benefits surged last week to their highest level in four years. Also for the first time in four years, there are more people looking for work than there are jobs available for them.

    To top it off, the August employment report showed employers hired just 22,000 new workers and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021. The labor force snapshot also revealed that the US economy lost 13,000 workers in June, marking the first month since 2020 when employers laid off more workers than they hired.

    “Economic sentiment declined more than expected in September largely because Americans are fearful of losing their jobs,” Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said in a statement on Friday.

    This string of data has essentially guaranteed the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its monetary policy meeting next week after having held rates steady for close to a year. Traders are also now betting on cuts at the subsequent two meetings this year, which has helped push stocks to record highs.

    This story has been updated with additional developments and context.

    Elisabeth Buchwald and CNN

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  • The most striking figures in the new inflation data



    The most striking figures in the new inflation data – CBS News










































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    The latest Consumer Price Index shows overall prices rose by nearly 3% on an annual basis last month. There were more warning signs about the labor market. Kelly O’Grady explains.

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  • Social Security cost-of-living adjustment could increase 2.7% in 2026, according to a new estimate

    Social Security beneficiaries could see a 2.7% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2026, which is slightly above the 2.5% increase U.S. retirees received in 2025.

    That’s according to an estimate from the Senior Citizens League, which recently posted its latest COLA prediction based on August inflation figures figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Virginia advocacy group has released nine COLA estimates so far this year, based on monthly BLS data. 

    According to the group, a 2.7% COLA would raise the average monthly benefit for retired workers by $54, from $2,008 to $2,062. The Senior Citizens League predicted the same cost-of-living adjustment in August.

    The cost-of-living adjustment has averaged 2.6% over the last 20 years, according to the Senior Citizens League. A COLA of 2.7% would be higher than this year’s adjustment of 2.5%, but below the 3.2% boost seniors received in 2024. 

    The Social Security Administration (SSA) makes a cost-of-living adjustment each year based on inflation data from July, August and September. Thursday’s CPI report shows that the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), the figure the SSA uses to make its annual adjustment, increased 2.8% on an annual basis in August, up from 2.5% the month prior.

    The SSA is scheduled to announce its adjustment in October, which would go into effect in January 2026. “This year, the COLA will be determined on October 15, when the Bureau of Labor and Statistics releases the CPI-W for September,” the agency told CBS MoneyWatch.

    The COLA is intended to ensure that benefits payments for U.S. seniors keep pace with inflation. However, economists have warned that a 2.7% adjustment may not be enough to stave off the inflationary pressures Americans are facing. 

    The CPI report released Thursday suggest that inflation is on the rise with CPI rising 2.9% on an annual basis in August compared to 2.7% in July. Imported products such as coffee and furniture have grown more expensive since last year, which economists point out could be due to tariffs pushing up prices. 

    Routine monthly paycheck reductions for certain Social Security recipients could also cancel out the cost-of-living adjustment, Shannon Benton, the executive director of the Senior Citizens League, told CBS MoneyWatch in an email. 

    “The latest projection of a 2.7% cost-of-living adjustment for 2026 is certainly better than nothing,” said Benton, “but for many seniors, that gain may quickly disappear once higher Medicare Part B premiums are deducted, turning what should be a raise into a wash.” 

    She added, “For those living on fixed incomes, it’s another reminder of the gap between benefits and real-world costs.”

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  • Inflation shoots higher as Trump tariffs ripple through economy | Fortune

    Inflation moved higher last month as the price of gas, groceries, hotel rooms and airfare rose, along with the cost of clothes and used cars.

    Consumer prices rose 2.9% in August from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Tuesday, up from 2.7% the previous month and the biggest increase since January. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices rose 3.1%, the same as in July. Both figures are above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

    The reading is the last data the Fed will receive before its key meeting next week, when policymakers are widely expected to cut their short-term rate to about 4.1% from 4.3%. Still, the figures underscore the challenges the Fed is facing as it experiences relentless pressure from President Donald Trump to cut rates.

    Even as inflation has ticked higher, recent government reports have also shown that hiring has slowed sharply in recent months and was lower than previously estimated last year. The unemployment rate ticked up in August to a still-low 4.3%. And weekly unemployment claims rose sharply last week, a sign layoffs may be picking up.

    Typically the Fed would cut its key rate when unemployment rose to spur more spending and growth. Yet it would do the opposite and raise rates — or at least keep them unchanged — in the face of rising inflation. Last month, Chair Jerome Powell signaled that Fed officials are increasingly more concerned about jobs, and are likely to cut their rate when they meet next week. Yet stubbornly high inflation could keep the Fed from cutting very quickly.

    On a monthly basis, overall inflatin accelerated, as prices rose 0.4% from July to August, faster than the 0.2% pace the previous month. Core prices rose 0.3% for the second straight month.

    THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.

    WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. inflation likely ticked higher last month as the Trump administration’s import taxes have lifted the price of goods, potentially putting the Federal Reserve in a tough spot when it meets next week.

    Economists forecast that consumer prices rose 2.9% in August from a year earlier, according to a survey of economists by data provider FactSet. That would be an increase from an annual pace of 2.7% in July. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, core inflation is expected to have increased 3.1%, the same as in July. Both figures are above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

    The potential increases, while modest, would underscore the challenges the Fed is facing as it experiences relentless pressure from President Donald Trump to reduce its short-term interest rate. Trump hopes that rate cuts will spur more borrowing and spending and boost the economy.

    Recent government reports have also shown that hiring has slowed sharply in recent months and was lower than previously estimated last year, a sign that companies may be worried about future sales and are less interested in adding staff. The unemployment rate ticked up in August to a still-low 4.3%.

    Typically the Fed would cut its key rate when unemployment rose to spur more spending and growth. Yet it would do the opposite and raise rates — or at least keep them unchanged — in the face of rising inflation. Last month, Chair Jerome Powell signaled that Fed officials are increasingly more concerned about jobs, and are likely to cut their rate when they meet next week. Yet stubbornly high inflation could keep the Fed from cutting very quickly.

    On a monthly basis, prices are expected to have risen at an accelerated pace, increasing 0.3% from July to August. Core prices are expected to also increase 0.3% on a monthly basis. The cost of groceries and gas are forecast to have risen last month.

    Still, Powell suggested in remarks in August that tariffs could simply lead to a one-time increase in prices, rather than ongoing inflation. If so, that would make it easier for the Fed to keep cutting its key rate. Wall Street investors expect the Fed to implement three cuts this year, according to futures pricing tracked by CME Fedwatch.

    The inflation data arrives at the same time that Trump has sought to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook as part of an effort to assert more control over the Fed. Yet late Tuesday, a court said the firing was illegal and ruled that Cook could keep her job while the dispute played out in the courts.

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    Christopher Rugaber, The Associated Press

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  • Here are the biggest takeaways from the government’s latest inflation data

    Inflation continued to run hot in July, underlining the Federal Review’s dilemma as it looks to lower prices for American consumers while propping up a job market that is starting to wobble. 

    Prices across the U.S. rose at an annual rate of 2.6% last month, according to personal consumption expenditures data released on Friday. That’s the same figure as in June, a sign inflation remains persistent. Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, inflation in July actually ticked up to 2.9% from a year ago, up from 2.8% in June.

     Read on for a breakdown of Friday’s PCE report.

    How are consumers faring?

    The latest PCE data shows that consumer spending rose 0.5% in July, suggesting that Americans are continuing to open their wallets even in the face of economic uncertainty.

    But while people continue to spend, many consumers are increasingly having to make trade-offs on what they spend their money on, Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, told CBS MoneyWatch. 

    “Consumers are trying to push through — they’re doing the best they can, but they’re increasingly under pressure, and therefore they’re being more cautious with discretionary outlets,” he said. “They travel less. They spend less on restaurants, spend more cautiously on transportation.”

    Such caution can augur a deeper slump given that consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of economic activity. The closely watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, released Friday, showed that Americans are increasingly concerned about inflation. 

    How fast are prices rising? (Line chart)

    Although inflation has cooled significantly since peaking in 2022, it remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% annual target. And consumers continue to feel the pain in the form of higher prices for some groceries as well as rising electricity costs. Another key inflation gauge — the Consumer Price Index — shows that the price of coffee was up 14.8% from a year ago, while beef and egg costs were 15.5% and 16.4%, respectively. 

    Are tariffs impacting inflation?

    Not yet. In a positive sign, the price of goods, which are most susceptible to tariffs than services, cooled slightly in July, the PCE data shows, decreasing 0.1% from the month prior. That suggests tariffs have had a minimal impact on prices so far.

    “It’s not showing up in a goods prices, in the government statistics at least,” Adam Crisafulli, head of Vital Knowledge, told CBS MoneyWatch.

    Still, analysts say inflation could bare its teeth more in the coming months as U.S. tariffs start to trickle through the economy. 

    “We continue to expect tariffs to take a growing bite out of growth in real income and real consumer spending,” Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, told investors in a report. 

    A critical question facing the economy is whether any tariff-induced inflation amounts to a one-time boost to prices or results in a more prolonged increase. Fed Chair Jerome Powell laid out the scenarios in a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, earlier this month, noting that even if inflation does end up being a “one-time” scenario, it will still “take time for tariff increases to work their way through supply chains and distribution networks.”

    What does the latest inflation data mean for a Fed rate cut?

    Most Wall Street analysts think the latest inflation figures keep the Fed on track to lower interest rates at its Sept. 16-17 meeting. 

    “Today’s numbers on both the personal consumption, expenditure, and income and spending, were right down the middle of the fairway,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist for B. Riley Wealth. “This leaves the door wide open for the Fed to cut rates in September, and likely again in October and in December.”

    Traders put the likelihood of a rate cut at 87%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. 

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  • Inflation report spurs mixed narratives on US economy

    Does the latest consumer price index report show that Americans are paying more or less for goods? You might be seeing mixed messaging based on the politicians you listen to or what your social media algorithms surface.

    Some say the numbers show President Donald Trump’s success. Others say the opposite. 

    Every month, the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the consumer price index, which measures price changes for goods and services including food, apparel, gasoline and housing. The report is used to assess economic stability and inform policy decisions.

    Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., celebrated the July report the day of its release.

    “Another month of inflation coming in lighter than expected. That’s GREAT NEWS for Florida families, and another reminder to trust in Pres. Trump!” Scott posted Aug. 12 on X, alongside a short Fox Business clip about energy and gas price decreases.

    U.S. Rep Kathy Castor, D-Fla., had a different take. 

    “Trump is raising your grocery bill to line the wallets of his billionaire friends. Nothing great about this for American families across the country,” Castor wrote in an Aug. 12 X post that included a link to a CBS News story that said in its headline that the index rose in July by 2.7% on an annual basis.

    Economists told PolitiFact this muddled framing isn’t new and people from different political tribes use varying metrics to reinforce their views. They said the full picture on the economy’s health and trajectory needs more time to come into focus.

    Overall, the report’s numbers are “another dose of modest bad news,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the center-right policy institute American Action Forum. “It’s not dramatic yet, it’s not a crisis, but it’s not positive.”

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    Trump’s tariffs, widely watched to see how they affect consumer prices and inflation, are still new and some just went into effect in August. 

    “Since at least 2021 the CPI reports have become a partisan battle ground with both sides cherry picking the data to best support their argument,” said Jason Furman, an economist and professor at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government who previously served as an economic adviser to former President Barack Obama. “And there is so much data in the CPI report that there is always some way to slice and dice it to support just about any view.”

    The consumer price index report and its meaning

    For July, the consumer price index increased 0.2% compared with the previous month and 2.7% from a year ago. That’s slightly cooler than the 2.8% rise economists had forecast, thanks to declines in gasoline and energy prices.

    Gary Burtless, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said the 2.7% 12-month rise in consumer prices for all items is a “bit lower than it was at the start of 2025,” to Trump’s advantage. But the number is also a bit higher than it was from March to July, he said, an advantage for Trump’s critics.  

    A separate measure, core inflation — which excludes food and energy because they are considered volatile measures prone to large, rapid fluctuations — increased 0.3% for July and 3.1% from a year ago. This is the first time annual core inflation, which officials use to monitor underlying, longer-term inflation trends, has risen above 3% in several months. This outpaces Federal Reserve projections before the 2024 election, which projected 2.2% median core inflation for 2025.

    “Economists tend to focus on the core because it is less erratic than food and energy prices,” said Dean Baker, co-founder of the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research. “Food and energy prices are very important, but big changes in either direction tend to be reversed. Therefore it is often more useful if we are looking for future trends to look at the core index.”

    Despite the uptick, the report was mild enough for investors, as U.S. stocks closed near a record high Aug. 12. The stock market appears, for now, to be focusing on the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September given concerns about a cooling labor market. Central bank officials, to Trump’s disapproval, have held rates steady in 2025 as they wait to see tariffs’ effect on the economy.

    The July data comes amid a Bureau of Labor Statistics shakeup. After the agency’s downward revision of May and June employment data, Trump fired bureau Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, accusing her of political bias. Trump nominated E.J. Antoni, an economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation who has criticized the bureau, as the agency’s new commissioner.

    The long and winding road of Trump’s tariffs

    As the Trump administration highlights the collection of nearly $130 billion from the new tariffs so far, many economists expect that businesses will begin passing on the additional costs to U.S. customers.

    Goldman Sachs estimated in an analysis shared with Bloomberg that U.S. companies have so far absorbed the bulk of tariff costs — around two-thirds of the levies — while consumers absorbed around 22% of the costs through June.

    But Goldman Sachs said it expects the consumer share of the costs to soar to 67% by October if the tariffs follow previous patterns of how import levies affected prices.

    Trump wrote in an Aug. 12 Truth Social post that Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon should replace its economist. “It has been proven, that even at this late stage, Tariffs have not caused Inflation, or any other problems for America, other than massive amounts of CASH pouring into our Treasury’s coffers,” Trump wrote.

    Some U.S. companies have avoided passing along higher prices by stockpiling goods ahead of the tariffs’ implementation. Others have absorbed costs to avoid losing customers or are holding off in hopes that courts nix the tariffs.

    “That’s just businesses making business decisions,” said Holtz-Eakin, from the American Action Forum. “But there will be a point if the tariffs stay in place at the current levels where that just won’t be feasible anymore.”

    Many studies of past tariffs have found that they harm the economy and raise consumer prices.

    For now, however, experts agreed that the U.S. economy is in a wait-and-see moment.

    Burtless, from Brookings, believes that the effects of tariffs on consumer prices are modest so far, and that price increases across different categories of goods and services appear “inconsistent with the idea that tariffs are the main driver of overall inflation.”

    “That may turn out to be the case in the future,” he said, “but not yet.”

    Holtz-Eakin also warned about putting too much stock in a single report.

    “Never believe one month’s data,” he said. “That’s a rule of life if you’re doing policy work.”

    RELATED: New Trump tariffs could put even more downward pressure on economy because they’re less targeted 

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  • Canada’s annual inflation fell to 1.6% in September – MoneySense

    Canada’s annual inflation fell to 1.6% in September – MoneySense

    The agency said Tuesday its consumer price index for September was up 1.6% from a year ago compared with a year-over-year increase of 2% in August.

    It was the slowest annual pace for inflation since February 2021 when it was 1.1%.

    Gasoline prices in September fell 10.7% compared with a year earlier. Excluding gasoline, the annual pace of inflation was 2.2% in September.

    Meanwhile, rent prices increased at a slower pace in the month but remained elevated as they rose 8.2% compared with a year ago following a year-over-year gain of 8.9% in August.

    Grocery prices increased 2.4%, rising faster than overall inflation

    Statistics Canada said prices for food purchased from stores rose faster than overall inflation as they increased 2.4% in September, the same rate as in August. Prices for fresh or frozen beef gained 9.2%, while edible fats and oils rose 7.8% and eggs increased 5%.

    Prices for food purchased from restaurants rose 3.5% compared with 3.4% in August.

    The inflation report is the last major piece of economic data before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision on Oct. 23.

    The central bank, which has a target of 2% for inflation, has cut its key interest rate three times so far this year to bring it to 4.25%.

    The Canadian Press

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