Tag: Consumer Goods

President Donald Trump frequently touts his battle against higher prices, often by saying the U.S. currently has “no inflation.” 

On Sept. 19, while meeting reporters in the Oval Office, Trump referenced his tariff policy, saying, “Even people that were against the tariffs, now they see the way they’re working. And by the way, with no inflation, with no problem, we’re just building up cash and we’re using that cash to reduce taxes, reduce debt, and other things.”

It wasn’t the first time he said that. Since July 1, Trump has referred to the U.S. having “no inflation” 11 times at eight events — a radio interview, a bill signing, bilateral meetings with a foreign leader, gaggles with reporters, a Cabinet meeting, and a roundtable in Florida.

In a Sept. 12 interview with Fox News, he hedged slightly, saying, “We have almost no inflation anymore.”

By two measures — the inflation rate and the Federal Reserve’s target for “price stability” — the statement about no inflation is inaccurate. 

Trump’s statements about “no inflation” is also undercut by White House news releases, which on multiple occasions since July 1 have characterized the current level of inflation as beating expectations, not being zero. The news releases have used more cautious phrasing, describing inflation as “on target” and “low and stable.”

When we asked the White House for evidence to back up Trump’s statements, White House spokesperson Kush Desai echoed the news releases’ language, saying, “President Trump is right: The days of Joe Biden’s debilitating inflation crisis are over. Since President Trump took office, inflation has been tracking at a low and stable 2.3 percent annualized rate and real wages for American workers are up.” 

Inflation today is far lower than its 2022 peak under Biden, when the consumer price index — a widely tracked Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation metric — hit a four-decade high of about 9% year-over-year. 

But there’s a difference between lower inflation and no inflation. 

“Consumer price inflation is not zero, under any plausibly complete definition covering all the goods and services Americans purchase,” said Gary Burtless, an economist at the Brookings Institution, a Washington, D.C., think tank.

Measuring by the inflation rate

Trump is wrong by the literal inflation rate. In August, the year-over-year consumer price index increase was 2.9%, just a hair lower than its 3% level when Trump began his second term.

Inflation eased after the 2022 peak, mostly on Biden’s watch. By the time Biden left office, inflation was down by about two-thirds from the 2022 peak.

Measuring by the Federal Reserve’s target for “price stability”

Has the inflation rate settled in at the Fed’s target? Here, too, the answer is no.

Historically, the Federal Reserve has aimed for “price stability” of about 2% rather than a literal 0% inflation rate. To measure whether inflation is close to that 2% benchmark, the Fed uses personal consumption expenditures, a measurement that’s slightly different from the consumer price index.

In July, the year-over-year change in personal consumption expenditures was about 2.6%, above the Fed’s 2% target. 

If measuring “core inflation” by removing food and energy — an approach economists sometimes prefer, because it reduces the volatility of the index — the year-over-year change in personal consumption expenditures was about 3.5%.

Is the inflation rate falling?

Not only is the inflation rate not zero or 2%; it’s been creeping further and further away from those benchmarks.

From February to April, the inflation rate declined. But then, prices began to rise.

Three measures — the consumer price index, personal consumption expenditures and personal consumption expenditures minus food and energy — all reached their Trump second-term lows in April, then began rising. For the consumer price index minus food and energy, the inflection point came one month later, in May.

Except for a few wiggles, the inflation rate has climbed every month since — in May, June, July and August.

The inflation rates are now back to about where they were when Trump took office, but based on the trajectory, heading higher.

Many categories have seen steadily increasing inflation during Trump’s second term, too. These include electricity (up 6.2% from August 2024 to August 2025), used vehicles (up 6%), medical care (up 3.4%), groceries (up 2.7%) and durable goods (up 1.9%).

At least two major sectors have seen declining inflation rates this year — shelter (a broad category for housing) and tuition/child care — but they are outnumbered by sectors that have seen accelerating inflation. And both shelter and tuition/child care remain more expensive today than a year ago: 3.6% higher for shelter and 3.3% higher for tuition/child care.

“I think there could be some room for the administration to highlight less inflation, so far, than economists predicted in response to his tariff policies, but not to claim no inflation,” said Tara Sinclair, a George Washington University economist and former Treasury Department deputy assistant secretary for macroeconomics under Biden.

Our ruling

Trump said the U.S. currently has “no inflation.” 

By two measures — the inflation rate and the Federal Reserve’s target for “price stability” — the statement is inaccurate. 

The inflation rate is not zero; it’s currently at 2.9% year over year. That’s higher than the Fed’s 2% “price stability” target. of 2%. And the inflation rate has been accelerating rather than easing for the past four months.

We rate the statement False.