ReportWire

Tag: Construction/Real Estate

  • Take MarketWatch’s 2023 Financial Literacy Quiz. Will you get 10/10?

    Take MarketWatch’s 2023 Financial Literacy Quiz. Will you get 10/10?

    [ad_1]

    April is National Financial Literacy Month. To mark the occasion, MarketWatch will publish a series of “Financial Fitness” articles to help readers improve their fiscal health, and offer advice on how to save, invest and spend their money wisely. Read more here.

    Do you know the difference between a stock and a bond, or a mutual fund and an exchange-traded fund? MarketWatch put together a meat and potatoes — although that’s always relative — quiz for our savvy readers. We’ve stuck to some familiar topics — taxes, stocks, interest rates, savings and inflation. There are 10 questions — with one bonus question thrown in for good measure.

    You don’t know what you don’t know until you get an incorrect answer in a financial literacy quiz. Some of the questions are tricky, but we hope they are fun and that — most importantly — readers learn something new. Financial literacy helps us to plan for the future, gives us peace of mind and brings more understanding and less fear about the complex world of investing and retirement.

    Our aim is to raise awareness of Financial Literacy Month. If you get 10/10, including the bonus question, buy yourself (and a friend) a popsicle. If you didn’t answer all the questions correctly, buy yourself a popsicle anyway. We, at MarketWatch, aim to democratize and demystify financial news, and make this sometimes intimidating subject as accessible as possible.

    If you found it useful and/or entertaining, share it with a friend.

    –Quentin Fottrell

    Question 1: What is the difference between a tax deduction and a tax credit? 

    (a) A tax deduction reduces your income taxes directly. A tax credit reduces your taxable income. 

    (b) A tax deduction reduces your taxable income. A tax credit reduces your income taxes directly.

    (c) Both reduce your income taxes directly.

    Question 2: Which way do bond prices move when interest rates rise? 

    (a) Bond-market prices fall as interest rates rise. Bond prices rise when interest rates decline.

    (b) Bond-market prices rise as interest rates rise. Bond prices fall when interest rates decline.

    (c) Bond-market prices fall as interest rates rise, but bond prices also fall when interest rates decline.

    Question 3: What has been the average annual total return, with dividends reinvested, for the S&P 500 over the past 30 years? 

    (a) 9.7%, according to FactSet.

    (b) 3%, according to FactSet.

    (c) 6.5%, according to FactSet.

    Question 4: What is compound interest and how does it work? 

    (a) Compound interest reflects the linear gain that comes from all the reinvested interest of your savings and investments, which allows your initial investment/deposit to gain value regardless of the amount of interest you pay.

    (b) Compound interest reflects the exponential gain that comes from all the reinvested interest of your savings and investments, which allows your initial investment/deposit and the additional interest to increase in value.

    (c) Compound interest reflects the amount of interest you pay every month on a loan, and the total amount of interest you have paid over the lifetime of that loan.

    Question 5: What is APR and how is it different from a regular interest rate?

    (a) APR is the annual interest on a loan calculated on the initial loan, including additional costs and fees, but not on the accumulated interest incurred on the loan. 

    (b) APR is the annual interest on a loan calculated on the initial loan and the accumulated interest over the first year.

    (c) APR is the annual interest on a loan calculated on the initial loan, including additional costs and fees, and the accumulated interest over the lifetime of the loan loan.

    Question 6: What percentage of your income should you spend on rent?

    (a) Most real-estate experts say you should spend no more than 20% of your income on housing costs, which is considered to be a tipping point for becoming “cost-burdened.”

    (b) Most real-estate experts say you should spend no more than 50% of your income on housing costs, which is considered to be a tipping point for becoming “cost-burdened.”

    (c) Most real-estate experts say you should spend no more than 30% of your income on housing costs, which is considered to be a tipping point for becoming “cost-burdened.”

    Question 7: What’s an ETF? 

    (a) ETFs, or Exchange-Traded Funds, are baskets of investments — stocks, bonds, or commodities — that investors can buy throughout the trading day like stocks. 

    (b) ETFs, or Exchange-Traded Funds, are baskets of investments — stocks, bonds, or commodities — that investors can only buy at the end of the trading day. 

    (c) ETFs, or Exchange-Traded Funds, are baskets of investments — stocks, bonds, or commodities — that investors can only buy during or at the end of the trading day.

    Question 8: What is the difference between a stock and a bond? 

    (a) A stock is a temporary investment in a company, while a bond is issued by a company to reward shareholders. 

    (b) A stock is a share in the ownership of a company, while a bond is issued by a company to finance a loan. 

    (c) A stock is a share in the ownership of a company, while a bond is issued by a company to finance the stock.

    Question 9: If you were born in 1960 or later, at what age can you receive your full Social Security in the U.S.? Bonus question: At what age can you receive your maximum Social Security benefit?

    (a) Full retirement age in the U.S. is 65 for those born in 1960 and after. While you can start collecting your Social Security retirement benefits as early as 62, your benefits are permanently reduced. Your Social Security benefits max out at age 70. By delaying until 70, your benefit is 76% higher than if you had claimed at the earliest possible age (62).

    (b) Full retirement age in the U.S. is 65 for those born in 1960 and after. While you can start collecting your Social Security retirement benefits as early as 62, your benefits are permanently reduced. Your Social Security benefits max out at age 67. By delaying until 67, your benefit is 76% higher than if you had claimed at the earliest possible age (62).

    (c) Full retirement age in the U.S. is 67 for those born in 1960 and after. While you can start collecting your Social Security retirement benefits as early as 62, your benefits are permanently reduced by a small percentage each month until you reach 67. Your Social Security benefits max out at age 70. By delaying until 70, your benefit is 76% higher than if you had claimed at the earliest possible age (62).

    Question 10: What is the Federal Reserve’s desired rate of inflation? 

    (a) 2%

    (b) 3%

    (c) 2.5%

    Bonus question! What is considered a good credit score?

    (a) 560

    (b) 680

    (c) 800

    If you get 10/10, including the bonus question, buy yourself a popsicle.


    Getty Images/iStockphoto

    Answer 1: 

    (b) A tax deduction reduces your taxable income. A tax credit reduces your income taxes directly.

    Answer 2: 

    (a) Bond-market prices fall as interest rates rise. Bond prices rise when interest rates decline. 

    Answer 3: 

    (a) 9.7%, according to FactSet. 

    Answer 4: 

    (b) Compound interest reflects the exponential gain that comes from all the reinvested interest of your savings and investments, which allows your initial investment/deposit and the additional interest to increase in value.

    Answer 5: 

    (c) APR is the annual interest on a loan calculated on the initial loan, including additional costs and fees, and the accumulated interest over the lifetime of the loan. 

    Answer 6: 

    (c) Most real-estate experts say you should spend no more than 30% of your income on housing, which is considered to be a tipping point for becoming “cost-burdened.”

    Answer 7: 

    (a) ETFs are Exchange-Traded Funds. These are baskets of investments — stocks, bonds, or commodities — that investors can buy or sell throughout the trading day.  

    Answer 8: 

    (b) A stock is a share in the ownership of a company, while a bond is issued by a company to finance a loan. 

    Answer 9: 

    (c) Full retirement age in the U.S. is 67 for those born in 1960 and after. While you can start collecting your Social Security retirement benefits as early as 62, your benefits are permanently reduced. Your Social Security benefits max out at age 70. By delaying until 70, your benefit is 76% higher than if you had claimed at the earliest possible age (62).

    Answer 10: 

    (a) 2%

    Answer for bonus question! 

    (b) 680. Although credit scores vary depending on the model, according to Experian, credit scores between 580 and 669 are considered “fair,” scores between 670 and 739 are regarded as “good”; 740 to 799 are considered “very good”; and scores of 800 and above are considered “excellent.”

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • S&P 500 books back-to-back loss as recession worries return

    S&P 500 books back-to-back loss as recession worries return

    [ad_1]

    U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday as weaker economic data weighed on equities and focus among investors returned to recession concerns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.24%

    gained about 80 points, or 0.2%, ending near 33,482, according to preliminary FactSet data, but the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    -0.25%

    and Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP,
    -1.07%

    fell 0.3% and 1.1%, respectively. That left the S&P 500 down for two straight days and the Nasdaq lower for a third day in a row. Investors were focused on an ADP report showing that private-sector employers added 145,000 jobs in March, well below the 210,000 expected by economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. Also, the bellwether Institute for Supply Management’s service sector activity index showed business conditions at U.S. companies fell to a three-month low of 51.2% in March.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Dow ends about 200 points lower as economy shows more signs of sputtering

    Dow ends about 200 points lower as economy shows more signs of sputtering

    [ad_1]

    Major U.S. stock indexes fell on Tuesday, with the Dow and S&P 500 both snapping a 4-session win streak, as economic data showed more signs of a sputtering U.S. economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.59%

    fell about 198 points, or 0.6%, ending near 33,403, while the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    -0.58%

    shed 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP,
    -0.52%

    fell 0.5%, according to preliminary FactSet data. Investors were eyeing less robust economic data out Tuesday. The number of U.S. job openings in February fell to a 21-month low, while orders for manufactured goods fell for the third time in the past four months. Gold prices
    GC00,
    -0.04%

    were flirting with a return to record territory, trading above $2,000 an ounce. The 2-year Treasury rate
    TMUBMUSD02Y,
    3.854%

    stayed below 4% at 3.84%.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Trump to surrender Tuesday morning before court appearance: report

    Trump to surrender Tuesday morning before court appearance: report

    [ad_1]

    Former President Donald Trump plans to fly to New York’s LaGuardia Airport Monday night, then spend the night at Trump Tower and surrender Tuesday morning before a court appearance at 2:15 p.m. Eastern time, according to an NBC 4 NY report citing unnamed sources. Trump is expected to face an arraignment on Tuesday after a Manhattan grand jury voted Thursday to indict him.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Mortgage rates fall to lowest level in six weeks

    Mortgage rates fall to lowest level in six weeks

    [ad_1]

    The numbers: Mortgage rates slide down to the lowest level in six weeks as consumers feel uncertain about the state of the U.S. economy.

    The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.32% as of March 30, according to data released by Freddie Mac on Thursday. 

    That’s down 10 basis points from the previous week — one basis point is equal to one hundredth of a percentage point. 

    The 30-year was last at this level in mid-February.

    Last week, the 30-year was at 6.42%. Last year, the 30-year was averaging at 4.67%.

    The average rate on the 15-year mortgage fell to 5.56%, from 5.68% the previous week. The 15-year was at 3.83% a year ago.

    Freddie Mac’s weekly report on mortgage rates is based on thousands of applications received from lenders across the country that are submitted to Freddie Mac when a borrower applies for a mortgage. 

    Separate data by Mortgage News Daily said that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was averaging at 6.61% as of Thursday morning.

    What Freddie Mac said: “Over the last several weeks, declining rates have brought borrowers back to the market but, as the spring homebuying season gets underway, low inventory remains a key challenge for prospective buyers,” Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, said in a statement. 

    Market reaction: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.551%

    was trading below 3.6% during the afternoon trading session on Thursday.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • U.S. stocks close lower Tuesday as Treasury yields climb

    U.S. stocks close lower Tuesday as Treasury yields climb

    [ad_1]

    U.S. stocks ended modestly lower on Tuesday, as Treasury yields rose, keeping pressure on the rate-sensitive Nasdaq Composite Index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA shed about 37 points, or 0.1%, ending near 32,394, while the S&P 500 index SPX fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq COMP closed 0.5% lower, according to preliminary data from FactSet. Stocks fell, but ended off the session lows, as the 2-year Treasury rate BX:TMUBMUSD02Y climbed 10.5 basis points to 4.06%. Bond yields and prices move in the opposite direction. Tuesday also saw a raft of relatively upbeat economic data and increased expectations by traders in fed-funds…

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Housing stocks see broad rally after strong home-sales data

    Housing stocks see broad rally after strong home-sales data

    [ad_1]

    The home-building sector enjoyed a broad rally in morning trading Tuesday, after data showing existing-home sales in February rose a lot more than expected. The iShares U.S. Home Construction exchange-traded fund
    ITB,
    +0.99%

    climbed 1.3% toward a five-week high, with all 48 equity components gaining ground. Among the ETF’s more active components, shares of Home Depot Inc.
    HD,
    -0.02%

    advanced 0.9%, D.R. Horton Inc.
    DHI,
    +0.04%

    rose 0.5%, KB Home
    KBH,
    +2.83%

    tacked on 2.4%, Lennar Corp.
    LEN,
    +1.27%

    rallied 1.3% and PulteGroup Inc.
    PHM,
    +1.03%

    was up 1.1%. The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday that existing-home sales for February leapt 14.5% to an annual rate of 4.58 million, the largest increase since July 2020, enough to reverse 12 months of losses and well above expectations of 4.2 million. The home construction ETF has hiked up 12.0% over the past three months, while the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +1.27%

    has gained 2.7%.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Mortgage rates fall in latest week. Freddie Mac cites worries over bank closures, and turmoil in financial markets

    Mortgage rates fall in latest week. Freddie Mac cites worries over bank closures, and turmoil in financial markets

    [ad_1]

    The numbers: Mortgage rates are down for the first time in six weeks, as the U.S. economy deals with bank collapses and an uncertain road ahead.

    The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.60% as of March 16, according to data released by Freddie Mac FMCC on Thursday. 

    That’s down 13 basis points from the previous week — one basis point is…

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • The 2023 stock market rally looks wobbly. What’s next as investors prepare for longer inflation fight.

    The 2023 stock market rally looks wobbly. What’s next as investors prepare for longer inflation fight.

    [ad_1]

    The stock market is ending February on a decidedly wobbly note, raising doubts about the durability of an early 2023 rally.

    Blame stronger-than-expected economic data and hotter-than-expected inflation readings that have forced investors to again rethink their expectations around how high the Federal Reserve will drive interest rates.

    “The idea that equity markets would experience a strong upside surge while the Fed was still hiking and the market was underestimating what Fed was going to do” had looked “untenable,” said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, in a phone interview.

    Market participants have come round to the Fed’s way of thinking. At the end of January, fed-funds futures reflected expectations the Fed’s benchmark interest rate would peak below 5% despite the central bank’s own forecast for a peak in the 5% to 5.25% range. Moreover, the market was forecasting the Fed would deliver more than one cut by year-end.

    That view began to shift after the release of a January jobs report on Feb. 3 that showed the U.S. economy added a much larger-than-expected 517,000 jobs and showed a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.4% — its lowest since 1969. Throw in hotter-than-expected January consumer and producer price index readings and Friday’s bounce in the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s favored inflation measure, and the market’s outlook on rates looks much different.

    Participants now see the Fed raising rates above 5% and holding them there through at least year end. The question now is whether the Fed will bump up its forecast of where it expects rates to peak at its next policy meeting in March.

    That’s translated in a backup in Treasury yields and a pullback by stocks, with the S&P 500 down around 5% from its 2023 high set on Feb. 2, leaving it up 3.4% in the year to date through Friday.

    It isn’t just that investors are learning to live with the Fed’s expectation for rates, it’s that investors are realizing that bringing down inflation will be a “bumpy” process, said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for the SPDR business at State Street Global Advisors, in a phone interview. After all, he noted, it took former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker two recessions in the early 1980s to finally crush a bout of runaway inflation.

    The run to the S&P 500’s Feb. 2 high was led by what some analysts derisively called a “dash for trash.” Last year’s biggest losers, including highly speculative shares of companies with no earnings, were among the leaders on the way back up. Those stocks suffered particularly last year as the Fed’s aggressive cadence of rate hikes sent Treasury yields up sharply. Higher bond yields make it harder to justify holding stocks whose valuations are based on earnings and cash flow projected far into the future.

    Inflation readings this month have all been hotter than expected, resulting in the “reversal of everything that was working” previously, Arone noted. The 10-year Treasury yield had fallen, the dollar was weakening, which means that highly speculative, volatile stocks are giving back leadership to companies that benefit from rising rates and inflation, he said.

    The energy sector was the sole winner among the S&P 500’s 11 sectors in the past week, while materials and consumer staples outperformed.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -1.02%

    dropped 3% last week, leaving the blue-chip gauge down 1% so far in 2023, while the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -1.05%

    slid 2.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -1.69%

    dropped 1.7%. The Nasdaq trimmed its year-to-date gain to 8.9%.

    Goodwin sees scope for stocks to fall another 10% to 15% as the economy slides toward recession. She said that while earnings results showed bottom line results continue to hold up relatively well for tech and consumer discretionary sectors, top line revenues are decelerating — a troubling mismatch. Outside of the pandemic winners, companies are struggling to maintain profit margins, she noted.

    Indeed, margin trouble could be the next big worry, Arone said.

    Net margins are below the five-year average because businesses have reached a limit when it comes to passing on price increases customers.

    “My view is this will remain a headwind for the outlook for stocks and one that’s a bit under the radar,” he said. That might explain why sectors that still enjoy high margins or are able to increase margins — such as the aforementioned energy and industrials — were outperforming the market at the end of the past week.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • My fiancé and I are 60. His adult daughter is opposed to our marriage — and insists on inheriting her father’s $3.2 million estate. How should we handle her?

    My fiancé and I are 60. His adult daughter is opposed to our marriage — and insists on inheriting her father’s $3.2 million estate. How should we handle her?

    [ad_1]

    What advice would you give to a widow and widower considering marriage on how to manage finances — and deal with adult children?

    We are both 60 years old and plan to work a few more years, mostly for health insurance. We both have about $1.5 million in retirement savings accounts. Our spouses’ 401(k)s and IRAs rolled into our accounts.

    I have another $500,000 in a brokerage and he has almost another $1 million. We both own homes with $300,000 mortgages. Mine is worth $500,000, Paul’s (not his real name) home is worth $1 million. We have no other debt.

    We both have one married, and one unmarried child that we help. We both have two grandchildren.

    We should be set up very well. Here’s the concern: His married, well-off daughter is very aggressive about inheritance. She wants the family home retitled in a trust. She wants all life insurance and brokerage beneficiaries in her name. Her brother has had drug-addiction problems, so she’s cutting him out even though it seems he’s the one who will need help.

    ‘She wants the family home retitled in a trust. She wants all life insurance and brokerage beneficiaries in her name.’

    The daughter isn’t thrilled about our relationship and suggests we just live together. For religious reasons, I would never do this. Grandma shacking up? What example would I set for my grandchildren?

    As a widowed couple, we are realistic enough to plan for the time one of us is left alone. Paul has diabetes, high blood pressure and already sees a cardiologist. What if he has a heart attack? Stroke? Or if he dies?

    What’s a fair way to mingle finances and allow security for me should he predecease me while allowing Paul’s daughter to ultimately inherit?

    By the way, my children have never raised money as an issue. After we both cared for spouses through cancer, they know life is short and just want us to be happy.

    Happy to Have Found Love Again

    Dear Happy,

    She is overstepping the line, and overplaying her hand.

    The first rule of inheritance is that it’s not yours until the decedent’s money is sitting in your bank account. Your fiancé’s daughter can make all the demands she likes, but the only thing your fiancé has to do is say, “You don’t need to be concerned. My affairs are all in order. I’ve always taken care of my own affairs, and I am not changing now.”

    How your fiancé decides to split his estate is entirely up to him, and can be done in consultation with a financial adviser and attorney, taking into account each of his children’s individual needs. For instance, if you move in together, he could give you a life estate, allowing you to live in the home for the rest of your life, and dividing the property between his two children thereafter. 

    Given that you have your own home, however, you may decide to rent it out, and move back there in the event that he predeceases you. There are so many ways to split an inheritance. You could look at the intestate laws of your state, and follow them. In New York, the spouse inherits the first $50,000 of intestate property, plus half of the balance, and the kids inherit the rest.

    “Paul” may decide to set up a trust for his son, so he can provide an income for him over the course of his life. If he has or had issues with addiction, this will help him while not putting temptation in his way with a lump sum of money. The best kind of trust is the one that deals with any recurring issues directly, and takes into account the person’s circumstances.

    Martin Hagan, a Pennsylvania-based estate-planning attorney who has practiced for four decades, writes: “First, it would authorize distributions only if the beneficiary is actively pursuing treatment and recovery.  Second, it would limit distributions to paying only for the expenses incurred in carrying out the treatment plan that will have been developed for the beneficiary.”

    You have $2 million collectively in a retirement and brokerage account and $200,000 equity in his home, and you can use these next seven years or so to pay off your mortgage, while your fiancé has $2.5 million and $700,000 in equity on his home. You are both well set up for retirement, and let’s hope you have many years to spend together.

    The financial services industry has many opinions. You should, advisers say, have 10 times your salary saved by the time you’re 65 years old. You don’t mention your salary, but I would be surprised if many people in America had that much money saved, especially given all of the unexpected events — divorce, illness, job loss — that can occur in the intervening years.

    You also have other priorities than dealing with an aggressive daughter/daughter-in-law. AARP suggests that most people should look into long-term care insurance between the ages of 60 and 65, around the time most people are eligible to qualify for Medicare. If you do it earlier, it can serve as a savings account in the event that you never need long-term care, AARP says.

    As retirement columnist Richard Quinn recently wrote on MarketWatch, everybody’s circumstances are different. “Living in retirement isn’t about averages. It isn’t about what other people do or the opinions of experts, especially online instant experts who don’t know anything about you and have yet to experience many years of retirement themselves.”

    Don’t give too much oxygen or power to your future daughter-in-law. Her father should give her a stock answer, and be firm. If she persists, he can say, “The subject is closed. I need you to respect the decisions I make about my own life, respect my privacy on these matters, and it would be nice if you would be happy for us, and support us in our marriage together.”

    You can’t change people. But you can change wills.  

    Yocan email The Moneyist with any financial and ethical questions related to coronavirus at qfottrell@marketwatch.com, and follow Quentin Fottrell on Twitter.

    Check out the Moneyist private Facebook group, where we look for answers to life’s thorniest money issues. Readers write in to me with all sorts of dilemmas. Post your questions, tell me what you want to know more about, or weigh in on the latest Moneyist columns.

    The Moneyist regrets he cannot reply to questions individually.

    More from Quentin Fottrell:

    My boyfriend wants me to move into his home and pay rent. I suggested only paying for utilities and groceries. What should I do?

    My dinner date ‘forgot’ his wallet and took the receipt for his taxes. Should I have called him out for being cheapskate?

    My boyfriend lives in my house with my 2 kids, but refuses to pay rent or contribute to food and utility bills. What’s my next move?

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Arctic blast threatens negative-50ºF temperatures in New England, while Texas power grid is again sputtering

    Arctic blast threatens negative-50ºF temperatures in New England, while Texas power grid is again sputtering

    [ad_1]

    Rising temperatures offered some hope Friday for frustrated Texans days after they lost power — and in many cases heat — in a deadly winter storm, while a new wave of frigid weather rolling into the Northeast led communities to close schools and open warming centers.

    Wind chills in some higher elevations of the Northeast could punch below minus 50º (minus 45º Celsius) as an Arctic front swept in from Canada, forecasters said.

    Some of the most extreme weather was expected atop New Hampshire’s Mount Washington, the Northeast’s highest peak, where winds gusted to nearly 100 miles per hour and wind chills could reach minus 100º Fahrenheit.

    In Texas, officials in Austin compared damage from fallen trees and iced-over power lines to tornadoes as they came under criticism for slow repairs and shifting timelines to restore power. More than 240,000 customers across the state lacked power early Friday, down from 430,000 on Thursday, according to PowerOutage.us.

    “Our heat source is our fireplace … and we’ve been in bed, snuggled up under like five or six blankets,” Edward Dahlke, of Spring Branch, southwest of Austin, told KSAT-TV. “Just think that our utility companies need to do a better job making sure our infrastructure is maintained properly.”

    See: Frustrated Texans endure another icy winter storm with no power, heat

    Pauline Frerich, also of Spring Branch, told KSAT that she had no way to prepare a meal without electricity, and that she worries about the cost of replacing hundreds of dollars of spoiled food. As the storm swept over this week, the indoor temperature fell to 29 degrees (-1 Celsius), and the sounds of tree limbs breaking unsettled her.

    “And you didn’t know, was it on the roof, was it just in the yard?” Frerich told KSAT. “But it’s very nerve-wracking.”

    Power failures were most widespread in Austin. Impatience rose there among nearly 123,000 customers days after the electricity first went out.

    Thursday night, officials backtracked on early estimates that power would be fully restored by Friday evening. Damage was worse than originally calculated, they said, and they could no longer provide an estimate.

    “The city let its citizens down. The situation is unacceptable to the community, and it’s unacceptable to me,” Austin Mayor Kirk Watson, a Democrat, said at a news conference Friday. “And I’m sorry.”

    The outages recalled the 2021 blackouts in Texas, when hundreds of people died after the state’s power grid was pushed to the brink of total failure because of a lack of generation. There have been no reports of deaths from this week’s power outages, though the storm and freeze have been blamed for at least 12 traffic fatalities on slick roads in Texas, Arkansas and Oklahoma.

    In New England, temperatures began plunging Friday morning.

    “The worst part of the upcoming cold snap is going to be the wind,” which has already topped 80 mph (129 kph) in higher elevations, said National Weather Service lead forecaster Bob Oravec. Frigid wind chills — the combined effect of wind and cold air on exposed skin — are expected Saturday.

    The worst wind chills in the populated areas of the Northeast shouldn’t go lower than minus 40º (minus 40º Celsius), he said.

    Wind gusts as high as 40 mph raised the prospect of power outages in Maine, and communities began opening warming stations.

    Even cold-weather sports were curtailed. Some ski resorts scaled back operations, eliminating night skiing and reducing lift operations. A popular weekend pond hockey tournament was postponed, and the National Toboggan Championship pushed Saturday’s races back by a day.

    Schools closed Friday in Boston and in Manchester, New Hampshire’s largest city. “In these conditions, frostbite can develop in as little as 30 minutes,” an announcement on the Manchester district’s website read. “This is simply too cold for students who walk home.”

    Some of the most extreme weather was expected atop New Hampshire’s Mount Washington, the Northeast’s highest peak and home to a weather observatory, where winds gusted to nearly 100 mph (160 kph) and wind chills could reach minus 100 (minus 73 Celsius).

    The system is expected to move out of the region Sunday.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • U.S. pending home sales rise 2.5% in December. Realtors say the housing market is in recovery mode.

    U.S. pending home sales rise 2.5% in December. Realtors say the housing market is in recovery mode.

    [ad_1]

    The numbers: U.S. pending-home sales rose 2.5% in December, reversing a six-month losing streak, according to the monthly index released Friday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

    Pending home sales were down for six months in a row, as the U.S. Federal Reserve increased interest rates and mortgage rates took off.

    Pending-home sales beat analyst expectations. Analysts polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast the pending home sales index to drop by 1%.

    Contract signings rose in the South and the West.

    Pending home sales reflect transactions where the contract has been signed for an existing-home sale, but the sale has not yet closed. 

    Economists view it as an indicator for the direction of existing-home sales in subsequent months.

    Mortgage application activity hints at the housing market’s further recovery. Mortgage demand rose in the latest week. 

    Key details: Compared with a year earlier, transactions were down by 33.8%.

    On a monthly basis, pending sales rose in the South and the West. Sales dropped in the Northeast and Midwest. 

    Pending home sales fell the most since last December in the West, by 37.5%.

    Big picture: A dip in rates has boosted demand for mortgages. Buyers are coming back to the market, and the housing market is slowly recovering. But inventory remains low, as sellers hold out. Many are looking to the spring to see if sellers are motivated to list their homes.

    What the realtors said: “This recent low point in home sales activity is likely over,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said. “Mortgage rates are the dominant factor driving home sales, and recent declines in rates are clearly helping to stabilize the market.”

    Yun expects mortgage rates to hover between the 5.5% and 6.5% range. 

    He also expects the South to outperform in terms of sales, since the job market is stronger in the region.

    What they’re saying: “Home sales have now largely adjusted to the collapse in demand since late 2021. … [but] a sustained recovery likely remains a long way off,” Kieran Clancy, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note.

    “The downturn in sales is coming to an end, but the decline in home prices is only just getting underway,” he added. He expects home prices to fall 15% over the next year.

    Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.08%

    and the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.25%

    were mixed in early trading on Friday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.511%

    rose above 3.5%.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • U.S. existing-home sales fall for the eleventh straight month in December

    U.S. existing-home sales fall for the eleventh straight month in December

    [ad_1]

    The numbers: U.S. existing-home sales fell 1.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million in December, the National Association of Realtors said Friday.

    This is the 11th straight monthly decline in existing-home sales. The losing streak is the longest since NAR began tracking sales in 1999.

    Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal were expecting existing-home sales to drop to 3.95 million.

    The level of sales activity was lowest since November 2010, in the midst of the foreclosure crisis in America.

    Compared with December 2021, home sales were down 34%.

    Total sales of existing homes in 2022 were down 17.8% from the previous year. Last year, 5.03 million existing homes were sold, which is the lowest level since 2014.

    The last time existing home sales dropped by this magnitude was in 2008.

    Key details: The median price for an existing home fell to $366,900 in December, from $370,700 in November.

    The number of homes on the market fell 13.4% to 970,000 units in December. 

    Expressed in terms of the months-supply metric, there was a 2.9-month supply of homes for sale in December, down from the previous month. Before the pandemic, a four- or five-month supply was more the norm.

    Homes remained on the market for 26 days on average, up from 24 days in November. Pre-pandemic, the average time for homes to remain on the market was a month. 

    Sales of existing homes mostly fell across the country, led by the South, which saw a 2.2% drop. Sales were unchanged in the West.

    All-cash transactions made up 28% of all transactions. About 31% of homes were sold to first-time home buyers, up from the previous month.

    Big picture: Mortgage rates have moved lower, and many buyers are coming back to the real-estate market. 

    A small dip in rates prompted a 28% surge in mortgage demand earlier this week.

    So with rates continuing to move downwards, sales may likely rebound in the next few months, breaking an 11-month losing streak.

    But the market still has to figure out inventory, since there are so few homes for sale on the market.

    What the realtors said: “We really need to begin to address this supply issue,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors said.

    Yun said that overall, homeowners have enjoyed more in home price appreciation versus their 401k performance in the stock market.

    What are they saying? Even though sales dropped considerably, “this result was somewhat better than expected,” Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont, wrote in a note.

    And as rates move lower, that will “help to boost demand for homes generally,” Stanley added, “but it will also lessen the impact of homeowners being ‘trapped’ in their current locations.”

    Market reaction: Stocks were up in early trading on Friday. The yield on the 10-year note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.479%

    rose above 3.45%.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • U.S. pending home sales fall 4% in November to the lowest level since April 2020

    U.S. pending home sales fall 4% in November to the lowest level since April 2020

    [ad_1]

    The numbers: U.S. pending-home sales fell 4% in November, which is the sixth straight monthly drop, according to the index released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

    The index was last at this level in the midst of the pandemic lockdown, in April 2020.

    Analysts polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast the pending home sales index to drop by 1.8%.

    Contract signings fell in all regions across the country.

    Pending home sales reflect transactions where the contract has been signed for an existing-home sale, but the sale has not yet closed. 

    Economists view it as an indicator for the direction of existing-home sales in subsequent months.

    Key details: Compared with a year earlier, transactions were down by 37.8%.

    On a monthly basis, pending sales fell in all four major U.S. regions, led by the Northeast, where the index fell by 7.9%, followed by the Midwest, the South and the West.

    But pending home sales fell the most since last November in the West, by 45.7%.

    Pending home sales have fallen in all but one month in 2022. 

    Big picture: The housing market continues to stumble through 2022, as elevated mortgage rates keep buyers out of the market.

    Buyers are finding it hard to find an existing home for sale, as sellers hold on to their homes tied to ultra-low mortgage rates.

    November’s data is also tied to the period of time when mortgage rates were above 7%.

    What the realtors said: “With mortgage rates falling throughout December, home-buying activity should inevitably rebound in the coming months and help economic growth,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said. 

    What they’re saying: “Housing markets have entered a winter freeze,” George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com, said in a statement. 

    “With prices for existing homes still elevated … and mortgage rates above 6%, homebuyers are finding much of today’s real estate landscape inaccessible,” he added.

    Ratiu estimated that monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced home has gone up by $780 since last year.

    Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -1.10%

    and the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -1.20%

    were mixed in early trading on Wednesday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.872%

    rose above 3.8%.

    (Realtor.com is operated by News Corp subsidiary Move Inc., and MarketWatch is a unit of Dow Jones, also a subsidiary of News Corp.)

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Here are MarketWatch’s most popular Moneyist advice columns of 2022

    Here are MarketWatch’s most popular Moneyist advice columns of 2022

    [ad_1]

    What fresh shenanigans and money dilemmas enthralled readers in 2022?

    Another year of broken promises, dodgy dealings and moving letters about how to get back on one’s feet after divorce, unemployment and even a 15-year abusive relationship

    The most widely-read Moneyist of 2022, however, was actually one of the shortest letters from someone called ‘Surprised Sister.” The answer, as is often the case, was not so simple, nor so short.

    Here is the No. 1 Moneyist column of the year: We are surprised and bewildered’: My brother passed away and left his house, cash and possessions to charity. Can his siblings contest his will?

    My response: There are times to contest a will: a parent who was being controlled by a new friend or greedy child, and/or someone who was forced to change their will when they were not of sound mind.

    But her own legal advice notwithstanding, I suggested she should accept your brother’s wishes. Feeling aggrieved that she did not inherit his estate is not enough to break his will. 

    Separate the emotions from the finance, and the answer often reveals itself. But there were others that ran the gamut from romance to stocks. They other most-read columns are an eclectic bunch:

    Here are the 5 runner-ups:

    1. I had a date with a great guy. I didn’t drink, but his wine added $36 to our bill. We split the check evenly. Should I have spoken up?

    It would be nice to offer to take the booze off the check, you were a non-drinker, would you speak up at one drink or two or three, if your date split the entire bill 50/50? 

    The financial intricacies of dating are like an onion that can be peeled ad infinitum. We’ve had plenty to chew over. Paying for one of your date’s drinks is OK, paying for two is pushing it.

    1. My father offered his 3 kids equal monetary gifts. My siblings took cash. I took stock. It’s soared in value — now they’re crying foul

    “The Other Brother” wrote that his father offered three children a choice: stocks or cash. The other two siblings took the cash. He took the cash. The stock soared. Dems are the breaks.

    Her siblings could have chosen stocks over cash, but they wanted immediate gratification. That was their decision, and they are going to have to take ownership of their choice and live with it.

    1. I’m an unmarried stay-at-home mother in a 20-year relationship, but my boyfriend won’t put my name on the deed of our house. Am I unreasonable?

    They have been in a 20-year relationship and have a 10-year-old child. “Not on the Deed” said she and her partner have had several tense “discussions” about adding me to the deed.

    I told her that her contribution to your partnership is valuable, her sense of worth is valuable, and her role as a homemaker and a mother is also valuable. Yes, he should add her.

    1. My friend got us free theater tickets. When I got home, she texted me, ‘Can you get our next meal or activity?’ Am I obliged to treat her?

    Even amidst the fights over inheritances, some breaches of social and financial etiquette seem so bizarre some people might think, ‘That behavior is too outrageous to be believable.” 

    The letter writer received free theater tickets, they split the bill 50/50 even though her friend had a cocktail, and she paid $10 for parking. Is he obliged to take her out again? No-can-do.

    1. My date chose an exclusive L.A. restaurant. After dinner, he accepted my credit card — and we split a $600 bill. Shouldn’t he have paid?

    Another dating story, this time where the guy chose a fancy restaurant and, as the date wore on, things took a turn for the worst, at least in the letter writer’s eyes: She was asked to split the bill.

    What if they didn’t get along? What if he was an abortion-rights supporter and she was anti-abortion? What if he was a Republican and she was a Democrat? Or vice-versa?  Always be prepared to pay.

    Follow Quentin Fottrell on Twitter.

    You can email The Moneyist with any financial and ethical questions related to coronavirus at qfottrell@marketwatch.com.

    Check out the Moneyist private Facebook group, where we look for answers to life’s thorniest money issues. Readers write to me with all sorts of dilemmas. Post your questions, tell me what you want to know more about, or weigh in on the latest Moneyist columns.

    The Moneyist regrets he cannot reply to questions individually.

    More from Quentin Fottrell:

    ‘I’m left with a $100 Bûche de Noël for 10 people — and no place to go’: My friends canceled Christmas dinner. Should I end the 30-year friendship?

    I met my wife in 2019 and we married in 2020. I put her name on the deed of my $998,000 California home. Now I want a divorce. What can I do?

    I want to meet someone rich. Is that so wrong?’ I’m 46, earn $210,000, and own a $700,000 home. I’m tired of dating ‘losers.’

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Whitmer abduction plot co-leader sentenced to 16 years in federal prison

    Whitmer abduction plot co-leader sentenced to 16 years in federal prison

    [ad_1]

    GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. (AP) — The co-leader of a plot to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was sentenced Wednesday to 16 years in prison for conspiring to abduct the Democrat and blow up a bridge to ease an escape.

    Adam Fox returned to federal court Tuesday, four months after he and Barry Croft Jr. were convicted of conspiracy charges at a second trial in Grand Rapids, Mich.

    They were accused of being at the helm of a wild plot to whip up anti-government extremists just before the 2020 presidential election. Their arrest, as well as the capture of 12 others, was a stunning coda to a tumultuous year of racial strife and political turmoil in the U.S.

    The government had pushed for a life sentence, saying Croft offered bomb-making skills and ideology while Fox was the “driving force urging their recruits to take up arms, kidnap the governor and kill those who stood in their way.”

    But Judge Robert J. Jonker said that while Fox’s sentence was needed as a punishment and deterrent to future similar acts, the government’s request for life in prison is “not necessary to achieve those purposes.”

    See: ‘I love state government’: Michigan’s re-elected Democratic governor throws cold water on talk of national prospects

    “It’s too much. Something less than life gets the job done in this case,” Jonker said, later adding that 16 years in prison “is still in my mind a very long time.”

    In addition to the 16-year prison sentence, Fox will have to serve five years of supervised release.

    Fox and Croft were convicted at a second trial in August, months after a different jury in Grand Rapids couldn’t reach a verdict but acquitted two other men. Croft, a trucker from Bear, Del., will be sentenced Wednesday.

    Fox and Croft in 2020 met with like-minded provocateurs at a summit in Ohio, trained with weapons in Michigan and Wisconsin and took a ride to “put eyes” on Whitmer’s vacation home with night-vision goggles, according to evidence.

    “People need to stop with the misplaced anger and place the anger where it should go, and that’s against our tyrannical … government,” Fox declared that spring, boiling over COVID-19 restrictions and perceived threats to gun ownership.

    Whitmer wasn’t physically harmed. The FBI, which was secretly embedded in the group, broke things up by fall.

    “They had no real plan for what to do with the governor if they actually seized her. Paradoxically, this made them more dangerous, not less,” Assistant U.S. Attorney Nils Kessler said in a court filing ahead of the hearing.

    In 2020, Fox, 39, was living in the basement of a Grand Rapids–area vacuum shop, the site of clandestine meetings with members of a paramilitary group and an undercover FBI agent. His lawyer said he was depressed, anxious and smoking marijuana daily.

    Christopher Gibbons said a life sentence would be extreme.

    Fox was regularly exposed to “inflammatory rhetoric” by FBI informants, especially Army veteran Dan Chappel, who “manipulated not only Fox’s sense of ‘patriotism’ but also his need for friendship, acceptance and male approval,” Gibbons said in a court filing.

    He said prosecutors had exaggerated Fox’s capabilities, saying he was poor and lacked the capability to obtain a bomb and carry out the plan.

    Two men who pleaded guilty to conspiracy and testified against Fox and Croft received substantial breaks: Ty Garbin already is free after a 2½-year prison term, while Kaleb Franks was given a four-year sentence.

    Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer addresses the media after signing a state budget bill in July.


    AP/Carlos Osorio/File

    In state court, three men recently were given lengthy sentences for assisting Fox earlier in the summer of 2020. Five more are awaiting trial in Antrim County, where Whitmer’s vacation home is located.

    When the plot was extinguished, Whitmer, a Democrat, blamed then-President Donald Trump, saying he had given “comfort to those who spread fear and hatred and division.” In August, 19 months after leaving office, Trump said the kidnapping plan was a “fake deal.”

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • U.S. home prices fall for fourth month in October as high mortgage rates bite

    U.S. home prices fall for fourth month in October as high mortgage rates bite

    [ad_1]

    The numbers: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city house price index fell 0.5% in October, its fourth monthly decline. 

    Year-over-year prices rose rose 8.6%, slowing from 10.4% in the previous month.

    A broader measure of home prices, the national index, fell a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in October from September.

    A separate report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed home prices remaining flat in October, down from a 0.1% gain the prior month. 

    And over the last year, the FHFA index was up 9.8%.

    Key details: Miami, Tampa, and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in October. All 20 cities reported lower price increases.

    San Francisco and Seattle reported the lowest year-over-year gains, which have seen prices fall by more than 10% from a peak in May.

    Big picture: Housing is in a slowdown, but affordability hasn’t returned. Homes are still expensive, as mortgage rates remain above 6%, and inventory of homes available for sale remains low.

    What S&P said: “As the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates higher, mortgage financing continues to be a headwind for home prices,” Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, said.

    “Given the continuing prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, prices may well continue to weaken,” he added.

    Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.22%

    and the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.63%

    were up in early trading on Tuesday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.807%

    rose above 3.81%.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • U.S. new home sales rose in November by 5.8%

    U.S. new home sales rose in November by 5.8%

    [ad_1]

    The numbers: U.S. new home sales rose 5.8% to a seasonally-adjusted rate of 640,000 in November, from a revised 605,000 in the prior month, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

    The November sales figure beat analyst estimates. Analysts polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast new home sales to come in at 600,000 in November.

    The sales of new homes are below a peak of 1.04 million in August 2020.

    Year-over-year, new home sales are still down by 15.3%.

    New home sales rose a revised 8.2% to 605,000 in October, compared with the initial estimate of a 7.5% increase to 632,000. 

    The new home sales data are volatile month-on-month and are often revised. 

    Key details: The median sales price of a new home sold in November was $471,200, down from $484,700 in October.

    The supply of new homes for sale fell by 7.5% between October and November, equating to an 8.6-month supply. 

    Regionally, the West led the U.S. in the number of new homes sold, with new homes sold surging by 27.6%, followed by the Midwest. 

    Sales of new homes dropped in the Northeast and the South this November.

    Big picture: 7% mortgage rates didn’t put a damper on new home sales, as seen in today’s report.

    New home sales jumped in November, likely as buyers wanted to take advantage of incentives that builders are offering, from mortgage rate buydowns to price cuts.

    Builders have been gloomy almost all year, fretting about lower traffic.

    But with rates coming back down since, expect housing data to improve further.

    What are they saying? “I suspect that builders are much more motivated sellers (especially given the surge in financing costs) than current homeowners, who do not want to part with their 3% or lower mortgages,” Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont, wrote in a note. “This may explain why new home sales are rising while existing home sales plunge. ”

    But overall, sales are still weaker than usual: Stanley noted that combined existing and new home sales in November fell to the lowest level since 2011.

    Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.53%

    and the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.59%

    were down in early trading on Friday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.749%

    rose above 3.7%.

    Shares of builders, including D.R. Horton, Inc.
    DHI,
    -1.29%
    ,
    Lennar Corp
    LEN,
    -0.46%
    ,
    PulteGroup Inc.
    PHM,
    -0.52%
    ,
    and Toll Brothers Inc.
    TOL,
    -0.33%

    traded lower during morning trading.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Builder sentiment fell every single month in 2022. Builders say there’s a silver lining.

    Builder sentiment fell every single month in 2022. Builders say there’s a silver lining.

    [ad_1]

    The numbers:  The National Association of Home Builders’ monthly confidence index fell two points to 31 in December, the trade group said on Monday.

    It’s the 12th month in a row that the index has fallen.

    Outside of the pandemic, the December reading of 31 is the lowest level since mid-2012.

    A year ago, the NAHB index stood at 84. The index’s 12-month drop is a new record. 

    But it’s not the biggest drop, the NAHB said. The drop in builder confidence between the end of 2004 and the start of 2009 was sharper; the index fell from 71 to 8 in that span.

    Key details: The three gauges that underpin the overall confidence index were mixed:

    • The gauge that marks current sales conditions fell by 3 points. 

    • The component that assesses sales expectations for the next six months rose by 4 points.

    • And the gauge that measures traffic of prospective buyers was unchanged from last month.

    All four NAHB regions posted a drop in builder confidence, led by the South and the Northeast. 

    Big picture: While builders continue to struggle to find buyers with the current rate environment, they’re also seeing a light at the end of the tunnel.

    Buyers are slowly coming back to the table as mortgage rates are no longer above 7%, and home price growth is moderating.

    And with 62% of builders offering incentives like mortgage rate buy-downs, paying points for buyers, and even price reductions, that luring some buyers, per the NAHB.

    About 35% of builders were dropping home prices in December, the NAHB said, with the average price reduction being 8%.

    What the NAHB said: “The silver lining in this HMI report is that it is the smallest drop in the index in the past six months, indicating that we are possibly nearing the bottom of the cycle for builder sentiment,” Robert Dietz, chief economist at the NAHB, said in a statement.

    “Mortgage rates are down from above 7% in recent weeks to about 6.3% today, and for the first time since April, builders registered an increase in future sales expectations,” he added.

    But the NAHB is expecting “weaker housing conditions” to persist in 2023, and only forecasts a full recovery in 2024, Dietz said. There is still a gap of 1.5 million housing units, they estimated nationwide.

    Nonetheless, the path to recovery is hard, the builders stressed.

    “In this high inflation, high mortgage rate environment, builders are struggling to keep housing affordable for home buyers,” Jerry Konter, chairman of the NAHB and a home builder and developer from Savannah, Ga., said in a statement.

    “With construction costs up more than 30% since inflation began to take off at the beginning of the year, there is little room for builders to cut prices,” Konter added.

    What are they saying? “We think home sales will find a floor by the end of the first quarter, helped by the near-75 [basis point] decline in mortgage rates since late October,” Kieran Clancy, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note.

    “But a meaningful recovery is still a long way off, and home prices have much further to fall,” he added.

    Market reaction: The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.597%

    rose to 3.57% on Monday morning.

    While the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF
    XHB,
    -1.67%

    traded slightly lower during the morning session, as well as big home builder stocks like D.R. Horton Inc
    DHI,
    -1.44%
    ,
    Toll Brothers
    TOL,
    -0.87%
    ,
    and Lennar
    LEN,
    -2.28%
    .

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Vanguard sees a recession in 2023 — and one ‘silver lining’ for investors

    Vanguard sees a recession in 2023 — and one ‘silver lining’ for investors

    [ad_1]

    The last 12 months was a year of fast-rising inflation, fast-rising interest rates and fast-rising questions about a future recession.

    Prices went up while stock markets and savings account balances went down, leaving consumers and investors dizzy and their wallets hurting.

    There may be more financial pain, that’s pretty sure — but it might not be as bad as feared, according to Vanguard’s look ahead to 2023.

    The likely recession will not send jobless rates charging sharply higher, sticker shock will fade for the price of goods, and the rise in rent and mortgages will also ease, Vanguard said.

    On Tuesday, inflation data for November showed prices are continuing to cool. Analysts say that makes a 50-basis point increase, rather than a 75-basis-point increase, more likely.

    The good news: This opens up chances for stocks to rebound, the asset-manager added.

    The outlook, released this week, comes as Americans are trying to guess what 2023 holds for their finances while they manage their holiday shopping budgets, and 2022 investments.

    On Tuesday, inflation data for November showed prices are continuing to cool. From October to November, the cost of living nudged up 0.1%, lower than the 0.3% forecast, the Consumer Price Index showed. Year over year, the inflation rate receded to 7.1% from 7.7% in October, according to the CPI data.

    On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest decision on interest rate increases. A 50-basis point increase is widely expected after four jumbo-sized 75-basis point hikes from the central bank.

    Here’s one roadmap for what’s next, as far as Vanguard’s researchers and experts can see.

    Hot inflation will cool

    Inflation rates during 2022 climbed to four-decade highs. There have been signs of easing, such as smaller-than-expected price increases in October.

    “As we step into 2023, early signs of a recovery in goods supply and softening demand could help balance supply and demand for consumption goods and bring prices lower,” the authors noted ahead of Tuesday’s CPI numbers.

    But the cost and demand of services are going to prevent a quick fall, they noted. Signs of slowing price increases are already emerging in rents and mortgages, but they will take longer to ease than prices of consumer goods, the authors said.

    That echoes the view from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who said Sunday there will be “much lower inflation,” absent any unanticipated shocks to the economy.

    But while hot inflation will cool, it will still be warm to the touch. The Fed says 2% inflation is its target goal; Vanguard sees 3% inflation by the end of 2023.

    A recession is very much on the cards

    As “generationally high inflation” slowed economies across the world, the Fed and other central banks have countered with interest-rate increases to tame price increases. That “will ultimately succeed, but at a cost of a global recession in 2023,” according to Vanguard’s report. Vanguard sees a 90% chance of a recession in the United States by the end of next year.

    Vanguard is hardly alone in the recession call, so the question is how bad could the big picture look?

    In Vanguard’s view, it’s not so bad. “Households, businesses, and financial institutions are in a much better position to handle the eventual downturn, such that drawing parallels with the 1970s, 1980s, 2008, or 2020 seems misplaced,” the authors wrote.

    Job losses may be clustered

    For now, the jobless rate in a tight labor market is 3.7%, which is just a little above the lowest levels in five decades. That stands against the headline-grabbing list of companies where layoffs are mounting, notably in the tech sector.

    When a recession, in all likelihood, lands next year, “unemployment may peak around 5%, a historically low rate for a recession,” the Vanguard outlook said. As interest rates climb, the job losses “should be most concentrated in the technology and real estate sectors, which were among the strongest beneficiaries of the zero-rate environment.”

    The unemployment rate going from 3.7% to the 5% vicinity is “a sizable move,” Roger Aliaga-Díaz, Americas chief economist for Vanguard, said in a Monday press conference on the report. “But it is less dramatic of a rise than compared to past recessions perhaps.”

    Spotting the opportunities

    When interest rates go up, bond prices go down. So it’s been difficult for bonds with lower returns and “near-term pain” for investors this year, the Vanguard outlook said.

    “However the bright side of higher rates is higher interest payments. These have led our return expectations for U.S. and international bonds to increase by more than twofold,” the report said.

    Vanguard said U.S. bond return projections could be 4.1% – 5.1% annually over the next year versus its 1.4% – 2.4% return estimate last year. For U.S. stocks, the forecast could be 4.7% – 6.7% annually, while returns in emerging market equities could be between 7% and 9%.

    On Tuesday morning, stock markets are soaring higher on the cooler than expected inflation data, igniting hopes of an end of year Santa Claus rally.

    ‘There’s one silver lining of our outlook for a modest global recession. And it’s the clear silver lining of higher expected returns for investors.’


    — Joseph Davis, Vanguard’s chief global economist

    Still, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.30%

    is down nearly 5% year to date. The S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.73%

    is off 14% in that time and for the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    +0.38%

    is down more than 26%.

    When the market hits bottom is impossible to know, the outlook said — but it noted “valuations and yields are clearly more attractive than they were a year ago.”

    “There’s one silver lining of our outlook for a modest global recession. And it’s the clear silver lining of higher expected returns for investors,” said Joseph Davis, Vanguard’s chief global economist.

    “We’re long concerned that the low rate environment was both unsustainable and ultimately a tax and a headwind for savers and long term investors,” Davis said.

    But even with all the turbulence this year, “we certainly are starting to see the dividends to higher real interest rates around the world in the higher projected returns that we anticipate for investors over the coming decade.”

    [ad_2]

    Source link