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Tag: constitutional amendment

  • Virginia lawmakers send reproductive rights amendment toward November vote – WTOP News

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    Unlike two other civil rights-related constitutional amendments that passed with bipartisan support over the past year, Virginia’s reproductive rights measure has faced intense debate at every stage, with every Republican in the legislature opposing it. 

    This article was reprinted with permission from Virginia Mercury

    A proposal allowing mid-decade redistricting of Virginia’s congressional maps that cleared the legislature last week may dominate debate heading into a spring special referendum, but a constitutional amendment on reproductive rights is poised to ignite similar fervor as the November election approaches.

    Unlike two other civil rights-related constitutional amendments that passed with bipartisan support over the past year, Virginia’s reproductive rights measure has faced intense debate at every stage, with every Republican in the legislature opposing it.

    In defending her amendment for the final time, Sen. Jennifer Boysko, D-Fairfax, emphasized that advancing the proposal would ultimately leave the decision to voters across the state.

    Ranging from fertility treatments to contraception access to the ability to obtain an abortion, “this amendment protects families’ entire scope of reproductive needs,” she said.

    Boysko and several other Democratic lawmakers have described how women in states with abortion bans have died amid pregnancy complications. Those states have also seen an exodus of OB-GYN physicians amid uncertainty of treating patients who need abortions or miscarriage management.

    Boysko grew tearful as she recounted stories and advocacy shared by constituents and people around the state.

    Relatedly, Sen. Emily Jordan, R-Isle of Wight, struck a somber tone as she noted that “this is a difficult topic for a lot of people.”

    On the opposite side of the chamber’s aisle — and in opposition to the amendment — Jordan unsuccessfully attempted to modify the proposal to explicitly spell out care for babies when born.

    A sticking point for some Republicans has been concern that the amendment could be interpreted to allow abortion up to the “moment of birth,”  though infanticide remains illegal under both state code and federal law.

    Sen. Tara Durant, R-Stafford, also attempted for the second legislative session in a row, to reiterate existing parental consent laws. Democrats and legal experts said it is unnecessary. Under Virginia law, minors are required to have parental or guardian consent for an abortion unless they petition a judge for authorization.

    On Thursday, Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell, D-Fairfax, accused Republicans of employing delay tactics by pressing for their amendments to the amendment.

    “It is a delay tactic,” Sen. Mark Obenshain, R-Rockbridge, said on Friday, as he urged lawmakers to re-draft the amendment. Doing so, however, would restart the two-year process.

    A sense of urgency

    While not entirely a partisan issue at the national level, the issue has increasingly fallen along party lines in states. That dynamic, Virginia Wesleyan University professor Leslie Caughell said, helps explain why Democrats are moving quickly while they hold legislative majorities.

    Though placing language in the Constitution is difficult, it is also harder to undo. With every other Southern state imposing deep restrictions or near-total bans, bolstering Virginia’s protections has become a priority for Democrats. Providers and abortion funds in Virginia have also seen a surge in out-of-state patients seeking care.

    “I think everything that happened in North Carolina made activists on this really uncomfortable,” Caughell said.

    In 2023, a member of the neighboring state’s legislature switched from Democrat to Republican, giving the GOP a veto-proof majority and paving the way for enactment of North Carolina’s current 12-week abortion limit.

    In Virginia, Republicans have also put forward a range of abortion restrictions, from near-total bans to a 15-week cap that lacked exceptions for fetal anomalies — which are often not detected until around or after 15 weeks.

    On other reproductive health issues, a right-to-contraception bill has twice been vetoed by former Gov. Glenn Youngkin — a point Boysko reiterated as the amendment advanced last week.

    ‘Yes’ and “No’ campaigns on the horizon

    Reproductive rights groups in Virginia, along with physicians and volunteers, have coordinated as part the national Reproductive Freedom for All effort. Last year, a $5 million investment supported targeted initiatives ranging from canvassing to digital advertising in states such as Virginia, where Abigail Spanberger was elected governor.

    Spanberger campaigned in part on supporting the amendment, though governors do not formally factor into its success or failure.

    “I look forward to spending ample time in advance of the 2026 elections campaigning to make sure that people understand the importance of this constitutional amendment,” she told The Mercury last summer.

    On the other side, SBA Pro-Life America supported Virginia-based anti-abortion groups last year through door-knocking efforts in key House of Delegates districts that were up for election.

    Democrats ultimately grew their majority by flipping additional seats.

    The abortion-opposing group “doesn’t have anything to share on the Virginia front at this time,” Communications Director Kelsey Pritchard said in an email, but the organization is monitoring Virginia among other states as it prepares to engage voters.

    Virginians for Reproductive Freedom — which includes organizations like Repro Rising and Planned Parenthood Advocates of Virginia — will likely ramp up public engagement events and advertising as the November elections approach.

    Caughell said she is watching closely to see how Virginia’s constitutional amendment campaigns intersect with this year’s congressional midterm elections.

    The measures — which include redistricting, reproductive rights, same-sex marriage rights and voting rights — arrive at a moment when Democrats may have an advantage, she noted.

    Midterm elections are often a referendum on the party that controls the White House, Caughell said.

    With Republican President Donald Trump in the White House, GOP majorities in Congress, and federal funding fallouts affecting states, the amendments championed by Democrats could also help drive down-ballot votes.

    She also noted that abortion, as a distinct health care need, has become a more salient argument in recent years, alongside economic considerations and support for personal choice.

    “We’ve expanded the parameters of our understanding of who this issue directly affects,” Caughell said.

    Speaking with reporters outside the Senate chamber Friday, Sen. Mamie Locke, D-Hampton, emphasized that the work is not finished.

    “It’s our responsibility to go out there and tell the voters this is what this means and help everybody understand what they’re voting for,” she said.

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    LaDawn Black

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  • Live election results: Did TX voters approve increase to school tax exemption?

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    New homes going up in the Llano Springs development in Southwest Fort Worth, TX, Wednesday, March 23, 2016. Tarrant County was No. 6 among counties in the U.S. that lead by population numeric change from July 1, 2014 to July 1, 2015.

    New homes going up in the Llano Springs development in Southwest Fort Worth, TX, Wednesday, March 23, 2016. Tarrant County was No. 6 among counties in the U.S. that lead by population numeric change from July 1, 2014 to July 1, 2015.

    mfaulkner@star-telegram.com

    Texas voters were overwhelming approving a $40,000 increase in the state’s homestead exemption after polls closed Tuesday. With 12% of the polling centers reporting, Proposition 13 was leading 82.98% to 17.02%.

    The proposal increasing the exemption from $100,000 to $140,000 was among 17 constitutional amendments on the Nov. 4 ballot. Other measures on the ballot include various property tax exemptions, fundings for water and funding for dementia research.

    In recent years, state lawmakers have used the exemption as a tool to lower school district property taxes. The exemption was raised by $60,000 after the passage of a 2023 constitutional amendment.

    This year’s proposal means a homeowner whose primary home is valued at $350,000 would pay property taxes based on a $210,000 home valuation. The tax break would save homeowners in the Fort Worth school district $412.

    Voters also were in favor of Proposition 11, which increases the homestead exemption for the elderly and disabled, with 80.34% supporting the constitutional amendment.

    How did Texas’ constitutional amendments fare?

    Here are the statewide results from the Secretary of State’s Office.

    This story was originally published November 4, 2025 at 7:39 PM.

    Eleanor Dearman

    Fort Worth Star-Telegram

    Eleanor (Elly) Dearman is a Texas politics and government reporter for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. She’s based in Austin, covering the Legislature and its impact on North Texas. She grew up in Denton and has been a reporter for more than six years.
    Support my work with a digital subscription

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    Eleanor Dearman

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  • It’s almost Election Day. How many Tarrant County voters cast ballots early?

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    A demonstration voting machine at the Tarrant County Election Administration displays the screen voters will see after casting their ballot on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, in Fort Worth.  The 2025 local runoff election will take place on June 7.

    A demonstration voting machine at the Tarrant County Election Administration displays the screen voters will see after casting their ballot on Wednesday, January 29, 2020, in Fort Worth. The 2025 local runoff election will take place on June 7.

    FortWorth

    Unless there’s a major swell Tuesday, just a small fraction of Tarrant County’s registered voters will decide the results of Tuesday’s election.

    The Nov. 4 ballot features 17 constitutional amendments, including a homestead exemption increase, as well as a special election for North Texas’ Senate District 9 and several city and school district elections.

    During early voting, 111,291 of Tarrant County’s roughly 1.3 million registered voters cast ballots in person, according to an unofficial tally from the Tarrant County Elections Administration. The in-person early voting period started Oct. 20 and ended Friday.

    An additional 2,665 ballots were returned by mail through Friday.

    Combine the two, and about 8.7% percent of Tarrant County’s registered voters have voted so far.

    The last day of early voting drew the most people to the polls — 25,385.

    The early voting turnout might seem low, but it’s higher than in 2023, the last time Texas had a constitutional amendment election.

    In 2023, all but one of the 14 constitutional amendment propositions were approved by Texas voters. That election drew just over 5% of the county’s registered voters for early voting.

    The busiest early voting locations

    On Election Day and during early voting, Tarrant County voters can go to any voting location they choose.

    Which was the busiest during early voting? Here are the five early voting locations with the most voters.

    • Keller Town Hall: 8,125
    • Southlake Town Hall: 6,987
    • Summerglen Branch Library in Fort Worth: 6,134
    • Dionne Phillips Bagsby Southwest Subcourthouse in Fort Worth: 5,914
    • Gary Fickes Northeast Courthouse in Hurst: 5,859

    The least popular early voting locations

    The following voting locations drew the fewest voters:

    • Dover Fellowship Hall in Kennedale: 958
    • City of Forest Hill City Hall: 1,069
    • Asia Times Square in Grand Prairie: 1,153
    • Vernon Newsom Stadium in Mansfield: 1,170
    • Tarrant County Elections Center in Fort Worth: 1,243

    Voting on Election Day in Tarrant County

    Polls are open on Election Day from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

    More information about voting locations and what’s on the ballot is available on the Tarrant County Election Administration website.

    The Star-Telegram also has several articles and guides to help inform voters as they head to the polls, including for the constitutional amendment election and the special election for Senate District 9.

    Eleanor Dearman

    Fort Worth Star-Telegram

    Eleanor (Elly) Dearman is a Texas politics and government reporter for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. She’s based in Austin, covering the Legislature and its impact on North Texas. She grew up in Denton and has been a reporter for more than six years.
    Support my work with a digital subscription

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    Eleanor Dearman

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  • Former California Senate leader Toni Atkins drops out of 2026 governor’s race

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    Toni Atkins, a former California Assembly speaker and former president pro tempore of the State Senate, is withdrawing her campaign to become the state’s next governor.She was among the crowded pool of Democrats hoping to take Gov. Gavin Newsom’s place once he terms out in 2026. In California, one can only hold the office of governor for two terms.In a Monday message to her supporters, she said it’s important that California Democrats be united in response to President Donald Trump’s policies.”That’s why it’s with such a heavy heart that I’m stepping aside today as a candidate for governor,” Atkins said. “Despite the strong support we’ve received and all we’ve achieved, there is simply no viable path forward to victory. Though my campaign is ending, I will keep fighting for California’s future.”Atkins is considered an LGBTQ+ trailblazer and was the lead author of a constitutional amendment enshrining the right to abortion in California. Voters approved the measure in 2022. “Toni Atkins’ run in this race is only the latest chapter in a career defined by trustworthy service and lifting up others – a legacy that will continue to shape California for generations to come,” shared the California Legislative LGBTQ Caucus in a statement, in part. “As the first openly LGBTQ+ individual and woman to lead both houses of our State Legislature, and as a proud member of our Caucus, Toni has shattered barriers once thought unbreakable and led with compassion, courage, and conviction. We were proud to support her campaign for governor because it was more than a candidacy – it was a powerful testament to how far our community has come and a beacon for what is possible.”Her withdrawal makes her the second prominent Democrat to drop out of the race, with current Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis announcing her dropped gubernatorial campaign in August.Former U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris spent this past summer mulling a run for governor before ultimately deciding against it.Even with Atkins out, several Democrats are still in the race. They include:Former U.S. House Rep. Katie PorterState Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony ThurmondFormer U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier BecerraFormer Los Angeles Mayor Antonio VillaraigosaCalifornia Democratic Party Vice Chair Betty YeeFormer California Assembly Majority Leader Ian CalderonU.S. Sen. Alex Padilla told KCRA 3’s Ashley Zavala that he is also not ruling out a run for governor. His term ends in 2029.| RELATED | The full list of who’s running for California governorThe two prominent Republicans are Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton.According to a Berkeley IGS Poll last month, Porter held a small lead as first choice, but nearly twice as many voters were undecided.See more coverage of top California stories here | Download our app | Subscribe to our morning newsletter | Find us on YouTube here and subscribe to our channel

    Toni Atkins, a former California Assembly speaker and former president pro tempore of the State Senate, is withdrawing her campaign to become the state’s next governor.

    She was among the crowded pool of Democrats hoping to take Gov. Gavin Newsom’s place once he terms out in 2026. In California, one can only hold the office of governor for two terms.

    In a Monday message to her supporters, she said it’s important that California Democrats be united in response to President Donald Trump’s policies.

    “That’s why it’s with such a heavy heart that I’m stepping aside today as a candidate for governor,” Atkins said. “Despite the strong support we’ve received and all we’ve achieved, there is simply no viable path forward to victory. Though my campaign is ending, I will keep fighting for California’s future.”

    Atkins is considered an LGBTQ+ trailblazer and was the lead author of a constitutional amendment enshrining the right to abortion in California. Voters approved the measure in 2022.

    “Toni Atkins’ run in this race is only the latest chapter in a career defined by trustworthy service and lifting up others – a legacy that will continue to shape California for generations to come,” shared the California Legislative LGBTQ Caucus in a statement, in part. “As the first openly LGBTQ+ individual and woman to lead both houses of our State Legislature, and as a proud member of our Caucus, Toni has shattered barriers once thought unbreakable and led with compassion, courage, and conviction. We were proud to support her campaign for governor because it was more than a candidacy – it was a powerful testament to how far our community has come and a beacon for what is possible.”

    Her withdrawal makes her the second prominent Democrat to drop out of the race, with current Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis announcing her dropped gubernatorial campaign in August.

    Former U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris spent this past summer mulling a run for governor before ultimately deciding against it.

    Even with Atkins out, several Democrats are still in the race. They include:

    • Former U.S. House Rep. Katie Porter
    • State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond
    • Former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra
    • Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa
    • California Democratic Party Vice Chair Betty Yee
    • Former California Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon

    U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla told KCRA 3’s Ashley Zavala that he is also not ruling out a run for governor. His term ends in 2029.

    | RELATED | The full list of who’s running for California governor

    The two prominent Republicans are Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton.

    According to a Berkeley IGS Poll last month, Porter held a small lead as first choice, but nearly twice as many voters were undecided.

    See more coverage of top California stories here | Download our app | Subscribe to our morning newsletter | Find us on YouTube here and subscribe to our channel

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  • President Joe Biden proposes major reforms for Supreme Court

    President Joe Biden proposes major reforms for Supreme Court

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    President Joe Biden is advocating for significant reforms to the United States Supreme Court, following a series of landmark decisions and controversies involving several justices and their spouses.In remarks from the LBJ Presidential Library on Monday, Biden said the court is being used to weaponize an extreme agenda, and, in recent years, extreme opinions have undermined long-established civil rights protections. “In 2022, the court overruled Roe v. Wade, and the right to choose that had been the law of the land for 50 years,” Biden said, “The following year the same court eviscerated affirmative action, which had been upheld and reaffirmed for nearly 50 years as well.”Under Biden’s proposal, each justice would be limited to one 18-year active term, with the current president appointing a new justice every two years. Biden is also asking for an enforceable code of ethics that would require justices to disclose gifts and to recuse themselves when they or their spouses have a conflict of interest. Finally, Biden is asking Congress to start work on a constitutional amendment limiting presidential immunity, stating that no former president is above the law. “We need these reforms to restore trust in the courts. To preserve the system of checks and balances that are vital to our democracy,” Biden said.Biden’s call comes as trust in the high court is dropping among Americans. A June poll from the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that seven in 10 Americans think justices are influenced by ideology. Four in 10 say they have hardly any confidence in the people running the Supreme Court. “I think we’ll have a problem if we don’t do something about Supreme Court ethics,” said Alan Morrison, an Associate Dean at the George Washington University Law School.”It would be constitutional to do it by statute, but I do not think that’s a good idea,” Morrison went on to say. “If it’s done by statute, it can be undone by statute.” Accomplishing any reforms will prove challenging, with Republicans already pushing back on the plan. House Speaker Mike Johnson says the proposal would “tilt the balance of power,” and is “dead on arrival.””Democrats want to change the system that has guided our nation since its founding simply because they disagree with some of the court’s recent decisions,” Johnson said.The party split in Congress is not the only reason Morrison believes the plan is unlikely to move forward anytime soon. “That has to go through not only two-thirds of both Houses but also three-quarters of the states. It’ll be a long time coming,” Morrison said. Justice Clarence Thomas, Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito would be the first three justices who could potentially be affected by term limits.

    President Joe Biden is advocating for significant reforms to the United States Supreme Court, following a series of landmark decisions and controversies involving several justices and their spouses.

    In remarks from the LBJ Presidential Library on Monday, Biden said the court is being used to weaponize an extreme agenda, and, in recent years, extreme opinions have undermined long-established civil rights protections.

    “In 2022, the court overruled Roe v. Wade, and the right to choose that had been the law of the land for 50 years,” Biden said, “The following year the same court eviscerated affirmative action, which had been upheld and reaffirmed for nearly 50 years as well.”

    Under Biden’s proposal, each justice would be limited to one 18-year active term, with the current president appointing a new justice every two years. Biden is also asking for an enforceable code of ethics that would require justices to disclose gifts and to recuse themselves when they or their spouses have a conflict of interest. Finally, Biden is asking Congress to start work on a constitutional amendment limiting presidential immunity, stating that no former president is above the law.

    “We need these reforms to restore trust in the courts. To preserve the system of checks and balances that are vital to our democracy,” Biden said.

    Biden’s call comes as trust in the high court is dropping among Americans. A June poll from the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that seven in 10 Americans think justices are influenced by ideology. Four in 10 say they have hardly any confidence in the people running the Supreme Court.

    “I think we’ll have a problem if we don’t do something about Supreme Court ethics,” said Alan Morrison, an Associate Dean at the George Washington University Law School.

    “It would be constitutional to do it by statute, but I do not think that’s a good idea,” Morrison went on to say. “If it’s done by statute, it can be undone by statute.”

    Accomplishing any reforms will prove challenging, with Republicans already pushing back on the plan. House Speaker Mike Johnson says the proposal would “tilt the balance of power,” and is “dead on arrival.”

    “Democrats want to change the system that has guided our nation since its founding simply because they disagree with some of the court’s recent decisions,” Johnson said.

    The party split in Congress is not the only reason Morrison believes the plan is unlikely to move forward anytime soon.

    “That has to go through not only two-thirds of both Houses but also three-quarters of the states. It’ll be a long time coming,” Morrison said.

    Justice Clarence Thomas, Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito would be the first three justices who could potentially be affected by term limits.

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  • Monica Lewinsky Proposes A Way To Fight Presidential Misconduct

    Monica Lewinsky Proposes A Way To Fight Presidential Misconduct

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  • The Abortion Backlash Reaches Ohio

    The Abortion Backlash Reaches Ohio

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    Officially, abortion had nothing to do with the constitutional amendment that Ohio voters rejected today. The word appeared nowhere on the ballot, and no abortion laws will change as a result of the outcome.

    Practically and politically, however, the defeat of the ballot initiative known as Issue 1 was all about abortion, giving reproductive-rights advocates the latest in a series of victories in the year since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Fearing the passage of an abortion-rights amendment in November, Republicans in Ohio asked voters to approve a proposal that would raise the threshold for enacting a change to the state constitution, which currently requires a simple majority vote. The measure on the ballot today would have lifted the threshold to 60 percent.

    Ohio voters, turning out in unusually large numbers for a summertime special election, declined. Their decision was a rare victory for Democrats in a state that Republicans have dominated, and it suggests that abortion remains a strong motivator for voters heading into next year’s presidential election. The Ohio results could spur abortion-rights advocates to ramp up their efforts to circumvent Republican-controlled state legislatures by placing the issue directly before voters. They have reason to feel good about their chances: Since the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, statewide abortion-rights ballot measures have been undefeated, winning in blue states such as Vermont and California as well as in red states such as Kansas and Kentucky.

    In Kansas last summer, an 18-point victory by the abortion-rights side stunned members of both parties in a socially conservative state. By the final day of voting in Ohio, however, the defeat of Issue 1 could no longer be called a surprise. For weeks, Democrats who had become accustomed to disappointment in Ohio watched early-voting numbers soar in the state’s large urban and suburban counties. If Republicans had hoped to catch voters napping by scheduling the election for the dog days of August, they miscalculated. As I traveled the state recently, I saw Vote No signs in front yards and outside churches in areas far from major cities, and progressive organizers told me that volunteers were signing up to knock on doors at levels unheard of for a summer campaign. The opposition extended to some independent and Republican voters, who saw the proposal as taking away their rights. “It’s this ‘Don’t tread on me’ moment where voters are being activated,” says Catherine Turcer, the executive director of Common Cause Ohio, a good-government advocacy group that helped lead the effort to defeat the amendment.

    Opponents of Issue 1 assembled a bipartisan coalition that included two former Republican governors. They focused their message broadly, appealing to voters to “protect majority rule” and stop a brazen power grab by the legislature. But the special election’s obvious link to this fall’s abortion referendum in Ohio drove people to the polls, particularly women and younger voters. “Voters don’t spend a lot of time thinking about the Ohio constitution. They probably don’t spend a ton of time thinking about voting rights,” Turcer told me. But, she said, “the attempt to dilute voter power so that it would impact a vote on reproductive rights made it really concrete, and that was important.”

    Voters in South Dakota and Arkansas last year rejected similar GOP-driven efforts to make ballot initiatives harder to pass. But Ohio’s status as a large former swing state that has turned red over the past decade posed a unique test for Democrats who are desperate to revive their party in the state. “We’ve been beat in Ohio a lot,” Dennis Willard, a longtime party operative in the state who served as the lead spokesperson for the No campaign, told me. That Republicans tried to pass this amendment, he said, “is a testament to them believing that they’re invincible and that we cannot beat them.”

    The defeat of Issue 1 likely clears the way for voters this fall to guarantee abortion access in Ohio, and it will keep open an avenue for progressives to enshrine, with a simple majority vote, other policies in the state constitution—including marijuana legalization and a higher minimum wage—that they could not get through a legislature controlled by Republicans. Democrats, including Willard, are eying an amendment to curb the gerrymandering that has helped the GOP lock in their majorities. They also hope that tonight’s victory will put Ohio back on the political map. “Us winning sends a message to the rest of the country that Ohio has possibilities,” Willard said. “And winning in November demonstrates to people that you can’t write Ohio off anymore.”

    For the moment, though, the GOP is in little danger of losing its hold on the state. It controls supermajorities in both chambers of the legislature; the Republican governor, Mike DeWine, trounced his Democratic opponent by 25 points last year to win a second term. One Ohio Republican, speaking anonymously before today’s election, told me that the defeat of Issue 1 and the expected passage of the reproductive-rights amendment in November could actually help the party next year, because voters might no longer believe that abortion access is in danger in the state. (The GOP performed better last year in blue states such as New York and California, where abortion rights were not under serious threat.)

    Republicans in Ohio, and in other states where similar ballot measures have flopped, are now confronting the limits of their power and the point at which voters will rebel. Will they be chastened and recalibrate, or will they continue to push the boundaries? It’s a question the proponents of Issue 1 did not want to contemplate before the votes confirming their defeat were counted. Their critics, however, are doubtful that Republicans will shift their strategy. “It’s unlikely that they will stop right away,” Turcer said. “It will take a number of defeats before they’re likely to understand that voters do not want to be taken advantage of.”

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    Russell Berman

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  • The Next Big Abortion Fight

    The Next Big Abortion Fight

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    For the 150 or so people who filled a church hall in Toledo, Ohio, for a Thursday-night campaign rally last week, the chant of the evening featured a profanity usually discouraged in a house of God.

    “With all due respect, pastor, hell no!” shouted Betty Montgomery, a former Ohio attorney general. Montgomery is a Republican, which gave the largely Democratic audience even more reason to roar with approval. They had gathered at the Warren AME Church, in Toledo, to voice their opposition to a constitutional amendment that Ohio voters will approve or reject in a statewide referendum on August 8. Many of those in the boisterous crowd were experiencing a feeling unfamiliar to Democrats in the state over the past decade: optimism.

    If enacted, the Republican-backed proposal known as Issue 1 would raise the bar for any future changes to the state constitution. Currently, constitutional amendments in Ohio—including the one on next week’s ballot—need only a bare majority of voters to pass; the proposal seeks to make the threshold a 60-percent supermajority.

    In other years, a rules tweak like this one might pass without much notice. But next week’s referendum has galvanized Democratic opposition inside and outside Ohio, turning what the GOP had hoped would be a sleepy summertime election into an expensive partisan proxy battle. Conservatives have argued that making the constitution harder to amend would protect Ohio from liberal efforts to raise the minimum wage, tighten gun laws, and fight climate change. But the Republican-controlled legislature clearly timed this referendum to intercept a progressive march on one issue in particular: Ohioans will decide in November whether to make access to abortion a constitutional right, and the outcome of next week’s vote could mean the difference between victory and defeat for backers of abortion rights.

    A year after the fall of Roe v. Wade, the back-to-back votes will also test whether abortion as an issue can still propel voters to the polls in support of Democratic candidates and causes. If the abortion-rights side wins next week and in November, Ohio would become the largest GOP-controlled state to enshrine abortion protections into law. The abortion-rights movement is trying to replicate the success it found last summer in another red state, Kansas, where voters decisively rejected an amendment that would have allowed the legislature to ban abortion, presaging a midterm election in which Democrats performed better than expected in states where abortion rights were under threat.

    To prevent Democratic attempts to circumvent conservative state legislatures, Republican lawmakers have sought to restrict ballot initiatives across the country. Similar efforts are under way or have already won approval in states including Florida, Missouri, North Dakota, and Idaho. But to Democrats in Ohio and beyond, the August special election is perhaps the most brazen effort yet by Republicans to subvert the will of voters. Polls show that in Ohio, the abortion-rights amendment is likely to win more than 50 percent of the vote, as have similar ballot measures in other states. For Republicans to propose raising the threshold three months before the abortion vote in November looks like a transparent bid to move the proverbial goalposts right when their opponents are about to score.

    “I don’t think I’ve seen such a naked attempt to stay in power,” a former Democratic governor of Ohio, Dick Celeste, told the church crowd in Toledo. As in Kansas a year ago, the Republican majority in the state legislature scheduled the referendum for August—a time when the party assumed turnout would be low and favorable to their cause. (Adding to the Democratic outrage is the fact that just a few months earlier, Ohio Republicans had voted to restrict local governments from holding August elections, because they tend to draw so few people.) “They’re trying to slip it in,” Kelsey Suffel, a Democratic voter from Perrysburg, told me after she had cast an early vote.

    That Ohio Republicans would try a similar gambit so soon after the defeat their counterparts suffered in Kansas struck many Democrats as a sign of desperation. “The winds of change are blowing,” Celeste said in Toledo. “They’re afraid, and they should be afraid, because the people won’t tolerate it.”

    The upcoming vote will serve as an important measure of strength for Ohio Democrats ahead of elections in the state next year that could determine control of Congress. Democrats have had a long losing streak in Ohio. Donald Trump easily won the state in 2016 and 2020, and Republicans have won every statewide office except for that of Senator Sherrod Brown, who faces reelection next year. Still, there’s reason to believe Celeste is right to be optimistic. A Suffolk University poll released last week found that 57 percent of registered voters planned to vote against Issue 1. (A private survey commissioned by a nonpartisan group also found the August amendment losing, a Republican who had seen the results told me on the condition of anonymity.) Early-voting numbers have swamped predictions of low participation in an August election, suggesting that abortion remains a key motivator for getting people to turn out. Groups opposing the amendment have significantly outspent supporters of the change.

    Abortion isn’t explicitly on the ballot in Ohio next week, but the clear linkage between this referendum and the one on reproductive rights in November has divided the Republican coalition. Although the state’s current Republican governor, Mike DeWine, backs Issue 1, the two living GOP former governors, Bob Taft and John Kasich, oppose it as an overreach by the legislature.

    “That’s the giant cloud on this issue,” Steve Stivers, a former Republican member of Congress who now heads the Ohio Chamber of Commerce, told me. The Chamber of Commerce backs the amendment because, as Stivers said, it’ll help stop “bad ideas” such as raising the minimum wage, marijuana legalization, and proposals supported by organized labor. But, he said, many of his members were worried that the group would be dragged into a fight over abortion, on which it wants to stay neutral: “The timing is not ideal.”

    Democrats have highlighted comments from Republicans who have departed from the party’s official message and drawn a connection between the August referendum and the abortion vote this fall. “They’ve all said the quiet part out loud, which is this election is 100 percent about trying to prevent abortion rights from having a fair election in the fall,” the state Democratic chair, Liz Walters, told me.

    But to broaden its coalition, opponents of the amendment have advanced a simpler argument—preserve “majority rule”—that also seems to be resonating with voters. “I’m in favor of democracy,” explained Ed Moritz, an 85-year-old retired college professor standing outside his home in Cleveland, when I asked him why he was planning to vote no. Once a national bellwether, Ohio has become close to a one-party state in recent years. For Democrats, citizen-led constitutional amendments represent one of the few remaining checks on a legislature dominated by Republicans. Moritz noted that the GOP had already gerrymandered the Ohio legislature by drawing maps to ensure its future majorities. “This,” he said, “is an attempt to gerrymander the entire population.”

    To Frank LaRose, the suggestion that Issue 1 represents an assault on democracy is “hyperbole.” LaRose is Ohio’s Republican secretary of state and, of late, the public face of Issue 1. Traversing Ohio over the past few weeks, he’s used the suddenly high-profile campaign as a launching pad for his bid for the Republican nomination for Senate in 2024.

    LaRose, 44, served for eight years in the state Senate before becoming Ohio’s top elections officer in 2019. (He won a second term last year.) He’s a smooth debater and quick on his feet, but on the Issue 1 campaign, he’s not exactly exuding confidence.

    In an interview, he began by rattling off a litany of complaints about the opposition’s messaging, which he called “intentionally misleading.” LaRose accused Issue 1’s opponents of trying to bamboozle conservative voters with literature showing images of the Constitution being cut to pieces and equating the amendment with “Stop the Steal.” “That’s completely off base,” he said. “We’ve had to compete with that and with a mountain of money that they’ve had, and with a pretty organized and intentional effort by the media on this.”

    LaRose likes to remind people that even if voters approve Issue 1, citizens would still be able to pass, with a simple majority, ballot initiatives to create or repeal statutes in Ohio law. The August proposal applies only to the state constitution, which LaRose said is not designed for policy making. Left unsaid, however, is that unlike an amendment to the constitution, any statutory change approved by the voters could swiftly be reversed by the Republican majority in the legislature.

    “Imagine if the U.S. Constitution changed every year,” he said. “What instability would that create? Well, that’s what’s at risk if we don’t pass Issue 1.” LaRose’s argument ignored the fact that Ohio’s rules for constitutional amendments have been in place for more than a century and, during that time, just 19 of the 77 changes proposed by citizen petitions have passed. (Many others generated by the legislature have won approval by the voters.)

    LaRose has been spending a lot of his time explaining the amendment to confused voters, including Republicans. When I spoke with him last weekend, he had just finished addressing about two dozen people inside a cavernous 19th-century church in Steubenville. He described his stump speech as a “seventh-grade civics class” in which he explained the differences between the rarely amended federal Constitution and Ohio’s routinely amended founding document. The laws that Ohio could be saddled with if the voters reject Issue 1, LaRose warned, went far beyond abortion: “It’s every radical West Coast policy that they can think of that they want to bring to Ohio.”

    The challenges LaRose has faced in selling voters on the proposal soon became apparent. When I asked a pair of women who had questioned LaRose during his speech whether he had persuaded them, one simply replied, “No.” Another frustrated attendee who supported the proposal told LaRose that she had encountered voters who didn’t understand the merits of the idea.

    Republicans have had to spend more time than they’d like defending their claim that Issue 1 is not simply an effort to head off November’s abortion amendment. They have also found themselves playing catch-up on an election that they placed on the ballot. “They got out of the gate earlier than our side,” the state Republican Party chair, Alex Triantafilou, told me, referring to an early round of TV ads that opposition groups began running throughout the state.

    The GOP’s struggle to sell its proposal to voters adds to the perception that the party, in placing the measure on the ballot, was acting not from a position of strength but of weakness. The thinly disguised effort to preempt a simple-majority vote on abortion is surely a concession by Republicans that they are losing on the issue even in what has become a reliably red state.

    When I asked LaRose to respond to the concerns about abortion that Stivers reported from his members in the Chamber of Commerce, he lamented that it was another example of businesses succumbing to “cancel culture.”

    Confidence can be dangerous for a Democrat in Ohio. Barack Obama carried the state twice, but in both 2016 and 2020, late polls showing a tight race were proved wrong by two eight-point Trump victories. A similar trajectory played out last year, when the Republican J. D. Vance pulled away from the Democrat Tim Ryan in the closing weeks to secure a seven-point victory in Ohio’s Senate race.

    “Democrats in the state are beaten down,” says Matt Caffrey, the Columbus-based organizing director for Swing Left, a national group that steers party donors and volunteers to key races across the country. He’s seen the decline firsthand, telling me of the challenge Democrats have had in recruiting canvassers and engaging voters who have grown more discouraged with each defeat.

    That began to change this summer, Caffrey told me. Volunteers have flocked to canvassing events in large numbers, some for the first time—a highly unusual occurrence for a midsummer special election, he said. At a canvass launch I attended in Akron over the weekend, more than three dozen people showed up, including several first-timers. As I followed Democratic canvassers there and in Cleveland over two days last week, not a single voter who answered their door was unaware of the election or undecided about how they’d vote. “It’s kind of an easy campaign,” Michael Todd, a canvasser with the group Ohio Citizen Action in Cleveland, told me. “Not a whole lot of convincing needs to be done.”

    The response has prompted some Democrats to see the August election as an unexpected opportunity to reawaken a moribund state party. The referendum is a first for Swing Left, which has exclusively invested in candidate races since it formed after Trump’s victory in 2016. “It’s a great example of what we’re seeing across the country, which is the fight for reproductive freedom and the fight for democracy becoming closely attached,” the group’s executive director, Yasmin Radjy, told me in Akron. “We also think it’s really important to build momentum in Ohio, a state that we need to keep investing in.”

    A win next week would make the abortion referendum a heavy favorite to pass in November. And although Ohio is unlikely to regain its status as a presidential swing state in 2024, it could help determine control of Congress. Brown’s bid for a fourth term is expected to be one of the hardest-fought Senate races in the country, and at least three Ohio districts could be up for grabs in the closely divided House.

    For Democrats like Caffrey, the temptation to think bigger about a comeback in Ohio is tempered by the lingering uncertainty about next week’s outcome—whether the party will finally close out a victory in a state that has turned red, or confront another disappointment. “It would be hard for Democrats in Ohio to feel complacent. I wish we would be in a position to feel complacent,” Caffrey said with a smile. “This is more about building hope.”

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    Russell Berman

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  • Abortion Could Define California’s Elections

    Abortion Could Define California’s Elections

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    CERRITOS, Calif.—Abortion rights dominated the message when the Democratic congressional candidate Jay Chen sent off a small group who had gathered to canvass for him here early on Sunday morning.

    “A right that we had all assumed we would have, the right of a woman to have control of her own health-care decisions, was taken away after 50 years,” Chen told the volunteers. He reminded them that his opponent, Republican Representative Michelle Steel, had co-sponsored “a federal ban on abortion” that would prohibit the procedure even in deep-blue California.

    “You name it, she’s on the extreme end of all these issues,” Chen said. “She’d be a complete outlier even in deep-red Kansas because even in Kansas they protected the right to an abortion. So for her to try to represent [this district] does not make any sense.”

    Chen’s exhortation captured the outsize role abortion rights could play across this year’s unusually large field of competitive U.S. House races in California, after the Republican-appointed Supreme Court majority overturned Roe v. Wade earlier this summer. The Golden State offers Democrats the nation’s single largest concentration of opportunities to offset losses elsewhere by flipping House seats now held by Republicans. And the abortion-rights issue offers Democrats their best chance to do so—particularly with a state constitutional amendment protecting access to the procedure also on the November ballot as Proposition 1.

    “Because we have this on the ballot, Republicans cannot run away from this issue,” says Dave Jacobson, a Democratic consultant who is advising Christy Smith, the party’s nominee against Republican Representative Mike Garcia in another Los Angeles–area district. “Every Republican in a competitive district is vulnerable with this issue at the top of the ballot as a constitutional amendment. I think it is going to drive turnout.”

    California will provide a crucial measure of how broadly the abortion issue may benefit Democrats this year. On both sides, there’s agreement that abortion’s increased prominence will strengthen Democrats in districts with a large number of white-collar voters—including the coastal seats south of Los Angeles now held by Democratic Representatives Katie Porter and Mike Levin. Less clear is whether the issue will prove as powerful in districts, such as those held by Republican Representatives Garcia and David Valadao, with larger numbers of blue-collar and Latino voters who may be acutely feeling the effects of inflation. The district in which Chen is challenging Steel demographically falls somewhere in between.

    “Presumably you’ll see coastal Republicans split with the party on things like choice,” predicts Darry Sragow, a veteran Democratic strategist and the publisher of the nonpartisan California Target Book, which analyzes state elections. “On the other hand, when you are looking at some inland and Central Valley districts, they are very different,” he told me. Although “there’s all this chatter that abortion is so important,” Sragow added, “I suggest most Americans do not wake up with abortion the thing they are most worried about,” particularly in working-class communities.

    Though solidly Democratic at the state level—Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom is cruising to reelection this year without serious Republican opposition after defeating a GOP-backed recall effort—congressional contests in California have proved highly susceptible to swings in the national mood. As part of the “blue wave” in 2018, the party flipped seven Republican-held seats, reducing the GOP to its smallest share of California’s congressional delegation since the 1880s. But in 2020, Republicans recaptured four of those districts—a key part of their unusual success at gaining House seats nationwide while losing the White House.

    Earlier this year, when inflation was raging and the Democratic legislative agenda seemed stalled, Republicans were optimistic about advancing farther across California by potentially ousting Democratic Representatives Josh Harder in the Central Valley and Porter and Levin in Orange and San Diego Counties. Although Democrats acknowledge that those races (and another Democratic-held open seat) remain competitive, they now see the opportunity to go on the offensive against Steel, Valadao, and Garcia, as well as potentially Representatives Ken Calvert and Young Kim in Southern California; they also see an opportunity to contest a Republican open seat in the Sacramento area.

    Several other issues have also contributed to this reversal of fortune: increased attention to gun violence after the Uvalde, Texas, school shooting; renewed focus on Donald Trump amid the revelations from the House January 6 committee and the firestorm over his mishandling of classified documents; and climate change after the passage of the Democrats’ slimmed-down reconciliation bill. But analysts in both parties see the Supreme Court decision reversing Roe as the pivotal factor shifting the congressional landscape across California. “We are just seeing an unprecedented level of outrage,” Representative Levin told me in an interview.

    As in other states, Republicans continue to express cautious optimism that frustration over inflation and disenchantment with the performance of President Joe Biden will outweigh views on abortion. “Of course [abortion] is going to be an issue, way more than it was in May of this year,” Lance Trover, a Republican consultant advising Representative Steel, who ousted a Democratic incumbent in 2020, told me. “But at the end of the day, the fundamentals of the economy are going to be key.”

    California Republicans face an unusually powerful headwind in moving beyond the abortion issue. Almost all Republicans holding or seeking congressional seats have staked out hard-line anti-abortion positions that directly collide with polls showing deep and broad support for abortion rights across the state.

    Polling in July by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found that more than two-thirds of state residents opposed the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe. That included about three-fourths of African Americans and Asian Americans, seven in 10 white voters, and just over three-fifths of Latino voters. About three-fourths of independents, whom Republicans need to compete in California, because they are so outnumbered by registered Democrats, opposed the ruling. Opposition to the decision was greatest in the big blue metropolitan areas of Los Angeles and San Francisco, but even in areas where Republicans have traditionally performed somewhat better, such as Orange and San Diego Counties and the Central Valley, preponderant majorities opposed the decision.

    In another survey released last week by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies and the Los Angeles Times, more than seven in 10 California voters said they intended to support the constitutional amendment inscribing abortion rights into the state constitution.

    “From a public-opinion perspective, it’s a settled issue in California,” Mark Baldassare, the PPIC president, told me. “We have seen what we would describe as overwhelming support for abortion rights in California consistently in our polls over many, many years … That’s pretty consistent across demographic groups and regions of the state.”

    The state’s Republican congressional delegation—as well as the party’s challengers in the key races—have placed themselves firmly on the opposite side of that consensus. Four of the House Republicans facing the potentially toughest contests—Steel, Garcia, Valadao, and Calvert—signed a legal brief urging the Supreme Court to overturn Roe. All of them but Calvert have co-sponsored the Life at Conception Act, a Republican bill that would define the unborn as a person under the Constitution from “the moment of fertilization” and effectively ban abortion nationwide, legal scholars say. Representative Kim, another Republican facing a potentially competitive race in an Orange County district, did not co-sponsor that bill, but has described herself as a “proud pro-life woman” who believes “the rights of the child must be respected.” The GOP challengers to Harder, Levin, and Porter have also publicly declared their opposition to legal abortion.

    As signs have grown of the backlash to the Supreme Court decision—including the Democratic victory in a New York congressional special election and the resounding defeat of a Kansas ballot initiative that would have opened the door to state abortion restrictions—several of the California Republicans have tried to obscure their positions. For instance, although the Life at Conception Act offers no exceptions and Steel earlier this year said she supported legal abortion only when the mother’s health was endangered, she told me in a statement, “I am pro-life with exceptions for rape, incest, and the health and life of the mother, and baby.” In a statement to the Los Angeles Times this week, Representative Garcia backed the same exceptions—which, again, are not included in the “life begins at conception” bill he is co-sponsoring.

    In her statement, Steel downplayed the possibility that a Republican-controlled Congress would seek to ban abortion nationwide, though notably without disavowing the idea: “Discussions surrounding a nationwide ban on abortion are purely hypothetical at this point,” she declared.

    But such vague dismissals may not dispel the vulnerability California Republicans face over the possibility of a national ban on abortion, particularly amid the parallel debate over amending the state constitution.

    Though neither supporters nor opponents of the constitutional amendment have yet raised much money, Newsom, who is emerging as a national leader for Democrats on cultural issues, is expected to campaign heavily for it and raise its visibility this fall. “I don’t want to give away our plans … but I would expect him to play a very prominent role,” Sean Clegg, a senior strategist for Newsom, told me. Abortion rights and the constitutional amendment to protect them, he added, are “going to have an effect in every single race in California.”

    The proposed amendment on the ballot in November represents the third level of protection for abortion rights in California. In earlier rulings, the state supreme court has already decided that the procedure is protected under the state constitution’s guarantees of liberty and privacy. This amendment, placed on the ballot by Newsom and the state’s Democratic-controlled legislature, adds an explicit guarantee that “the state shall not deny or interfere with an individual’s reproductive freedom … which includes their fundamental right to choose to have an abortion and their fundamental right to choose or refuse contraceptives.”

    Yet even all those reinforcing levels of protection for abortion rights in the California constitution would be preempted if Congress approved a national ban, legal analysts agree. The Life at Conception Act would surely face legal challenges if a future Republican-controlled Congress passes it, but should the law be upheld, it would override any California action to guarantee abortion rights, according to Cary Franklin, a constitutional-law professor at UCLA and the faculty director of its Center on Reproductive Health, Law, and Policy. “If Congress were to pass a national ban on abortion, that would trump state law, even state constitutional law,” she told me.

    That’s a message Democrats are likely to pound across the state in the campaign’s final months. “If Steel has her way, she will pass a federal ban on abortion, which will override our protections here, and I think Californians are coming to realize that,” Chen, a Naval reservist and the owner of a business that manages commercial properties, told me. By contrast, Chen, like the other Democratic incumbents and challengers, supports legislation restoring a national right to abortion.

    Opponents of the state constitutional amendment, such as Steel, say it would authorize abortions at any point in pregnancy, ending current state restrictions after a fetus is viable outside the womb (unless the mother’s life is endangered). Its sponsors deny that interpretation, but it will likely become the centerpiece of the campaign against the amendment. “Pro-life people may have had enough,” Susan Swift Arnall, the vice president of legal affairs at California’s Right to Life League, told me. “They may say, ‘This is too far. This is too extreme … And we want to send a message back to the legislature that we don’t support abortion on demand for all nine months and even into the birth of the baby.’”

    But the greater likelihood is that the amendment mobilizes turnout among the decisive majority in the state who support abortion rights. “There’s no question the [Supreme Court] decision has really created a great deal of increased interest from women voters for sure, and not just Democrats,” Levin said. “We are talking about independents, even some Republicans. Those who historically haven’t voted in midterm elections, I think, are motivated.”

    By solidifying Democrats in suburbia, abortion rights’ growing visibility, like the increased focus on gun violence and renewed attention to Trump, may narrow the range of House districts the GOP can realistically contest both in California and nationwide, and lower the ceiling on their potential gains. But not enough voters may prioritize abortion to neutralize Republicans’ other advantages in economically strained areas. Like so much else in modern American politics, the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe seems likely to further widen the chasm between white-collar and culturally cosmopolitan metropolitan areas trending toward the Democrats and blue-collar, socially conservative smaller places hardening in their support for the GOP, even in staunchly Democratic California.

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    Ronald Brownstein

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