Iran on Sunday denounced U.S. and British air strikes on Yemen as “fueling chaos and disorder” and risking an escalation of the war in the Middle East.
Washington and London, with support from partner nations, on Saturday launched a fresh round of air and missile strikes on Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen in retaliation for the group’s continued attacks on international shipping. A day earlier, U.S. long-range aircraft bombarded Iranian military and proxy targets in Iraq and Syria.
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Nasser Kanani, claimed that the strikes contradict U.S. and U.K. policy of wanting to avoid an escalation in the conflict.
These attacks are “in clear contradiction with the repeated claims of Washington and London that they do not want the expansion of war and conflict in the region,” Kanani said, according to AFP. He added that further attacks on Houthi rebels in Yemen would constitute a “threat to international peace and security.”
Speaking to reporters on a trip to Lebanon Thursday, Cameron said U.K. recognition of an independent Palestinian state “can’t come at the start of the process, but it doesn’t have to be the very end of the process.”
“It could be something that we consider as this process, as this advance to a solution, becomes more real,” Cameron said.
“What we need to do is give the Palestinian people a horizon towards a better future, the future of having a state of their own,” he said, adding that recognition of a Palestinian state is “absolutely vital for the long-term peace and security of the region.”
Cameron is back from a tour of the Middle East to try and push a five-point plan to quell the latest war between Israel and Hamas.
The U.K. is among those continuing to argue that a two-state solution is the only viable long-term solution to the conflict. But such a proposal faces fierce resistance from Netanyahu and members of his government. The Israeli prime minister has called for “full Israeli security control over the entire area in the west of Jordan,” a move he made clear is “contrary to a Palestinian state.”
The U.K. government has previously said only that it will “recognize a Palestinian state at a time when it best serves the objective of peace” and has rejected calls from British lawmakers to go further.
“We have been saying this a long time,” he said on a visit to Brussels. “I have been here three times before and always we said if we didn’t do this … the Houthis will never stop. The Houthis have an ideology, have a project. Iran has a project in the region and unfortunately, the others do not respond.”
He expressed frustration that the EU and U.S. spent years pouring their diplomatic energies into wooing Tehran for a nuclear deal, rather than exerting more pressure on the Islamic Republic to stop supporting their Houthi allies, fellow Shi’ite Muslims who were seeking to impose what he labeled a “theocratic, totalitarian” police state.
The idea behind the nuclear talks was that Tehran should limit its nuclear ambitions in return for sanctions relief, but an accord proved out of reach.
No one paid attention
Bin Mubarak noted international momentum for action — which has included U.S. and British strikes on Houthi targets — did not finally come about “because of what [the Houthis] did to the Yemenis. They killed thousands of Yemenis. Not because of the atrocities they committed, raping women … jailing women … Just look at what Houthis did. No one is paying attention.”
He explained Western diplomacy toward Iran was supposed to have focused on three elements: the nuclear program, Tehran’s support for regional proxies, and its ballistic missile program. The fixation on the first, to the detriment of the other two, means the West is now facing an adversary in Yemen that has been very well armed by Iran, bin Mubarak complained.
“[Iran’s] Shahed drones, the first time we started hearing the European Union talking about it, they were being used in Ukraine. But before that, for years, we were saying Iran is supplying Houthis and drones are attacking Yemeni people. No one was believing [it],” he continued, adding that Houthi drone strikes stopped Yemeni oil exports in October 2022.
As the war enters its 708th day, these are the main developments.
Here is the situation on Thursday, February 1, 2024.
Fighting
A Russian bomb hit a hospital in northeastern Ukraine, forcing the evacuation of dozens of patients, smashing windows and damaging equipment. Volodymyr Tymoshko, head of the Kharkiv regional branch of the national police, said the bomb made a direct hit on the hospital in the town of Velykyi Burluk, northeast of Kharkiv, and a second bomb landed nearby. Four people were slightly injured.
Ukraine’s air defences shot down 14 out of 20 drones launched by Russia in an overnight attack that injured one person and damaged commercial buildings. The air force said the Iranian-made Shahed drones and three Iskander missiles targeted five Ukrainian regions in the south and the east.
Russia said it destroyed 20 missiles launched by Ukraine over the Black Sea and the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow invaded in 2014 and then annexed.
Ukraine’s air force commander Mykola Oleshchuk said its forces struck the Belbek military airfield in Crimea. He did not go into detail.
Politics and diplomacy
Russia and Ukraine exchanged hundreds of prisoners of war. Russia’s Defence Ministry said 195 of its soldiers were freed, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said 207 people, including some civilians, had been returned to Ukraine.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told his country’s parliament that he would rally European partners to deliver support for Ukraine that was “so huge” it would weigh on Russian President Vladimir Putin. His comments came ahead of a key European Union summit on 50 billion euros ($54bn) of funding for Ukraine that is being blocked by Hungary.
Victoria Nuland, the United States acting deputy secretary of state, visited Kyiv and said she was encouraged by Ukraine’s strengthening defences and that Moscow should expect some “surprises” on the battlefield. A US military aid package for Ukraine is being held up in Congress by Republicans who want to link it to policy changes at the US border. Nuland said she was confident it would be adopted.
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) rejected much of a case filed by Ukraine that accused Russia of bankrolling separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine a decade ago, saying only that Moscow had failed to investigate alleged breaches.
Boris Nadezhdin submitted his bid to run for the Russian presidency in March’s election after delivering 105,000 signatures backing his campaign to the Central Election Commission (CEC). The 60-year-old has emerged as a prominent critic of the Kremlin and promised to end the war in Ukraine.
Weapons
The EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell admitted that the EU’s promise to supply Ukraine with one million artillery shells by March would fall short, with just over half that number expected to be delivered by that deadline. The remaining 155-mm artillery shells are likely to be delivered by the end of the year, Borrell said.
Southeast Asian foreign ministers have called for a “Myanmar-owned and led solution” to the crisis in Myanmar that began when the military seized power in a coup three years ago, and has left thousands dead.
The call from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) followed a meeting on Monday of the 10-member grouping’s foreign ministers in Laos, which was attended by an official from Myanmar for the first time in two years.
The ministers also gave their backing to efforts by Alounkeo Kittikhoun, Laos’s special envoy on the crisis, in “reaching out to parties concerned”.
Myanmar was plunged into crisis when the generals removed the elected government of civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi on February 1, 2021, and seized power, responding with brutal force to mass protests against its rule and sparking an armed uprising.
More than 4,400 civilians have been killed since and the military is holding nearly 20,000 people in detention, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a local monitoring group.
ASEAN, which Myanmar joined in 1997, has been leading international diplomatic efforts on Myanmar but has made little progress since unveiling the so-called five-point consensus to end the crisis at a summit attended by coup leader Min Aung Hlaing shortly after the power grab.
The generals have ignored the plan and have been banned from attending ASEAN’s summits and ministerial meetings.
Laos, a one-party communist state on Myanmar’s northeastern border, is chairing ASEAN this year.
Kittikhoun travelled to Myanmar earlier this month where he met Min Aung Hlaing and the two discussed “efforts of the government to ensure peace and stability”, according to Myanmar’s state media. Neither ASEAN nor Laos have commented on the trip and it is unclear whether he met any anti-coup groups.
The conflict has deepened since an alliance of anti-coup forces and ethnic armed groups began a major offensive towards the end of last year in northern Shan State and western Rakhine.
The alliance claims to have overrun dozens of military outposts and taken control of key towns.
More than 2.6 million people have been forced from their homes over three years of fighting.
The military government has shown no willingness to open talks with its opponents and describes them as “terrorists”. It has also accused ASEAN of interfering in its internal affairs.
Laos stresses engagement
The ASEAN statement did not elaborate on whether the “Myanmar-owned and led solution” would involve discussions with the National Unity Government, the administration established by elected politicians who were removed in the coup as well as supporters of democracy in the wake of the power grab.
The military sent Marlar Than Htike, the ASEAN’s permanent secretary at the Foreign Ministry, to the meeting in Laos, accepting for the first time ASEAN’s invitation for it to send a “non-political” representative to meetings.
Laos’s Foreign Minister Saleumxay Kommasith welcomed Myanmar’s attendance.
“This time we feel a little bit optimistic that the engagement may work, although we have to admit that the issues that are happening in Myanmar will not resolve overnight,” he said.
“We are sure that the more we engage Myanmar, the more understanding … about the real situation that is happening in Myanmar.”
The crisis has caused friction within ASEAN with some members pushing for a firmer line with the military and engagement with the NUG.
A spokesman from Indonesia, which chaired the grouping last year, insisted Monday’s attendance was not a sign that policy had changed.
“It is true that a Myanmar representative was present at the ASEAN FM meeting in Luang Prabang. The attendance was not by a minister-level or political representative. So, it is still in line with the 2022 agreement of the ASEAN leaders,” Lalu Muhamad Iqbal told the AFP news agency.
Laos’s Foreign Minister Kommasith told reporters that Thailand would provide more humanitarian assistance to Myanmar.
“We think humanitarian assistance is the priority for the immediate period of time when implementing the five-point consensus,” he said, referring to the April 2021 consensus.
The plan calls for the immediate cessation of violence in Myanmar, a dialogue among all concerned parties, mediation by an ASEAN special envoy, provision of humanitarian aid through ASEAN channels and a visit to Myanmar by the special envoy to meet all concerned parties.
Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar, Cambodia, Brunei and Laos have a combined population of nearly 650 million people and a total gross domestic product (GDP) of more than $3 trillion.
Laos is the group’s poorest nation and one of its smallest.
It has close ties to China with which it also shares a border.
Though unsuccessful, the attack marks an intensification in the battle between the Houthis, which control large parts of Yemen, and a U.S.-led naval operation aimed at protecting commercial shipping in one of the most important global trade routes.
In recent weeks, Western navies have repeatedly responded to Houthi attacks against cargo ships traveling along the coast of Yemen that began soon after the October 7 attack by the Hamas militant group against Israel.
The Yemen-based group said it was conducting its attacks in solidarity with the Palestinian group. In response, Western militaries are now increasingly targeting Houthi weapons sites in Yemen.
On Friday, the Houthi rebels also struck an oil tanker with a missile, according to the ship’s operator Trafigura. The company said on Saturday that it was assessing the security risks of further Red Sea voyages after firefighters put out a blaze on the tanker, the Marlin Luanda.
KYIV, Ukraine, January 25, 2024 (Newswire.com)
– In a crucial effort to support Ukraine’s wounded, the R.T. Weatherman Foundation is proud to announce the successful delivery of over $1.5 million in trauma orthopedic medical supplies to six hospitals across Ukraine. This substantial contribution marks a significant step in aiding both soldiers on the frontlines and civilians affected by the ongoing conflict.
This large-scale donation includes advanced medical equipment and supplies specifically designed for the treatment of complex soft tissue and bone injuries. The aim is to facilitate limb salvage and recovery, offering hope and practical help to those suffering from severe trauma.
The hospitals benefiting from this donation are strategically located in regions where the need is most acute. The R.T. Weatherman Foundation worked closely with local authorities and medical experts to ensure the supplies were distributed efficiently and to the areas where they would make the most impact.
“We are deeply committed to providing tangible support in times of crisis,” said Dr. Meaghan Mobbs, President of the R.T. Weatherman Foundation. “Our mission is to fill critical gaps, and through this donation, we aim to alleviate some of the suffering caused by this conflict. We believe that no effort is too big or small when it comes to saving lives and limbs.”
The R.T. Weatherman Foundation extends its gratitude to partners and the donors whose generous contributions have made this initiative possible. Their ongoing support is crucial in enabling the foundation to respond swiftly and effectively in crisis situations.
“We remain steadfast in our commitment to humanitarian aid,” said Bess Weatherman, co-founder of the R.T. Weatherman Foundation. “And we continue to stand with the people of Ukraine. It is our hope that this contribution will not only provide immediate relief but will also encourage other donors to follow this lead.”
For more information about the R.T. Weatherman Foundation and its initiatives, or to support its efforts, please visit weathermanfoundation.org.
About R.T. Weatherman Foundation:
The R.T. Weatherman Foundation is a non-profit organization which supports the future of democracy, values every life as our own, and meets critical unmet needs.
At least 18 people have been killed and more than 130 injured after Russia hit Ukraine’s biggest cities with waves of missiles.
Speaking in a sombre evening address, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia had launched some 40 missiles of varying types.
More than 200 sites were hit, including 139 homes, with many deaths in “an ordinary high-rise apartment building”, Zelenskyy said. “Ordinary people lived there.”
He promised a strong response.
“The Russian war will inevitably be brought back home, back to where this evil came from, where it must be quelled,” he said.
The northeastern city of Kharkiv suffered three waves of attacks. There were also attacks on the capital Kyiv and in central Ukraine while the southern region of Kherson was subject to constant shelling.
Oleksandra Terekhovich ran into the corridor of her home in Kharkiv when she heard the first explosion. The second blast hit the building next door, shattering her windows and door, she said.
“There are no more tears. Our country has been going through what has been happening for two years now. We live with horror inside of us,” she told the AFP news agency.
Sappers load an unexploded missile warhead onto a truck after the Russian aerial attack on Kyiv [Efrem Lukatsky/AP Photo]
The relentless Russian bombardment has kept Ukrainians on edge while the 1,500km (930 mile) front line, where soldiers are engaged in trench and artillery warfare, has barely moved.
Analysts say Russia stockpiled missiles at the end of last year in preparation for the latest campaign that a US official said was an attempt to probe the weaknesses in Ukraine’s air defences.
Kharkiv regional Governor Oleh Syniehubov said more than 100 high-rise apartment blocks had been damaged in the first two attacks on the city, with Russia using S-300, Kh-32 and hypersonic Iskander missiles. An attack later on Tuesday evening also hit a residential building and other infrastructure, causing more injuries.
The city’s mayor, Ihor Terekhov, said people were trapped in the rubble with temperatures at -7C (19.4F).
‘All these buildings were on fire’
In Kyiv, emergency services said the destruction spread across four districts.
At one site, rescuers tended to dazed and groaning residents as workers swept away debris and broken glass.
“There was a very loud bang, and my mother was already running outside, shouting that we need to leave. We all went to the corridor,” 21-year-old Daniel Boliukh told the Reuters news agency.
“Then, we went on the balcony to have a look and saw all these buildings were on fire.”
Emergency services said apartment buildings as well as medical and educational institutions were damaged in the capital. Some of the damage occurred next to the United Nations office, resident coordinator Denise Brown said in a statement.
Pavlohrad, an industrial city in the eastern Dnipro region, also came under attack. One person was killed and two schools and eight high-rise buildings were damaged, according to the presidential office.
Ukrainian officials said the country was targeted with a variety of Russian missiles including S-300, Kh-32 and hypersonic Iskander missiles [Sofiia Gatilova/Reuters]
Ukraine’s General Staff said the country’s armed forces had destroyed 22 of the missiles with nearly 20 shot down over Kyiv, the city’s military administration said.
The recent Russian attacks represent “an alarming reversal” of a trend last year, which saw a drop in civilian casualties from Kremlin attacks, according to the UN.
More than 10,000 civilians have been killed and nearly 20,000 injured since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, the UN said.
The Kremlin denied it targeted civilians in Wednesday’s bombardment.
The Russian defence ministry said the raids had struck companies producing missiles, explosives and ammunition.
A panel of international scientists on Tuesday kept the ominous Doomsday Clock set to 90 seconds to midnight, warning that humanity is as close as ever to destruction due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas war, and the threat of artificial intelligence.
The timing of the clock, maintained by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, remains the same as last year and the closest it has ever been to midnight in its more than 75-year history. “Trends continue to point ominously towards global catastrophe,” said Rachel Bronson, president and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. “The war in Ukraine poses an ever present risk of nuclear escalation, and the October 7 attack in Israel and war in Gaza provides further illustration of the horrors of modern war, even without nuclear escalation.”
The Doomsday Clock, created in the aftermath of World War II by scientists who played pivotal roles in the development of nuclear weapons, has served as a reminder of humanity’s shared responsibility to navigate away from the precipice of self-annihilation, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
Lon Tweeten for TIME
In their assessment for 2024, the Bulletin pointed to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russia’s withdrawal from arms agreements, the war in Gaza, and the record-breaking heat of 2023. Scientists also highlighted the rise of artificial intelligence as a disruptive force, acknowledging its potential to amplify corruption and disinformation.
“Make no mistake: resetting the Clock at 90 seconds to midnight is not an indication that the world is stable,” Bronson said. “Quite the opposite. It’s urgent for governments and communities around the world to act. And the Bulletin remains hopeful—and inspired—in seeing the younger generations leading the charge.”
KRAKÓW, Poland — Elon Musk has upped his war on woke by saying that diversity-oriented hiring policies are “fundamentally antisemitic” and discriminatory, shortly after a private visit to the Auschwitz-Birkenau Nazi concentration camp.
The controversial tech billionaire was speaking at a European Jewish Association (EJA) conference in the Polish city of Kraków, amid rising criticism that his social media platform — X, formerly Twitter — has allowed rampant hate speech to spread. Musk himself sparked outrage in November when he publicly agreed with an antisemitic tweet claiming that Jewish communities have been “pushing the exact kind of dialectical hatred against whites that they claim to want people to stop using against them.”
While his trip to Poland allowed him to push back at the charges of antisemitism, he also seized the opportunity to turn his fire against one of his favorite bugbears: “Diversity, equity and inclusion” policies.
“Always be wary of any name that sounds like it could come out of a George Orwell book. That’s never a good sign,” Musk told American right-wing commentator Ben Shapiro, who joined him on stage. “Sure, diversity, equity and inclusion all sound like nice words, but what it really means is discrimination on the basis of race, sex, sexual orientation and it’s against merit and thus I think it’s fundamentally antisemitic.”
Musk, who confirmed that he does indeed write all of his own posts on X, has been vocal about his feelings toward diversity, equity and inclusion, including by claiming, without evidence, that diverse hiring initiatives at Boeing and United Airlines have made air travel less safe.
His comments feed into a broader debate on inclusive hiring policies, most especially on U.S. college campuses. The resignation of Harvard President Claudine Gay over a plagiarism scandal was seized upon by Republicans, who claim top schools are examples of American institutions in the throes of a leftist political transformation. Critics argue this radical leftist culture on campuses is stoking antisemitism, and top university leaders hit heavy flak last month for their poor handling of a congressional hearing on the bullying of Jews.
On Monday, Shapiro went easy on Musk, steering the conversation towards meritocracy rather than Musk’s increasingly controversial social media outbursts and allowing the Tesla boss to continue his attacks on a subject he has made a great deal of mileage out of.
“I think we need return to … a focus on merit and it doesn’t matter whether you’re man, woman, what race you are, what beliefs you have, what matters is how good you are at your job or what are your skills,” Musk said.
In defense of X
At the EJA conference — a daylong summit on the rise of antisemitism in the aftermath of the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas — Musk also defended X against accusations of antisemitism and hate speech, saying freedom of speech must be protected even when controversial.According to the billionaire, who cited audits without offering further details, X has “the least amount of antisemitism” among all social media platforms, adding that TikTok has “five times the amount of antisemitism” that X has.
“Relentless pursuit of the truth is the goal with X,” Musk said. “And allowing people to say what they want to say even if it’s controversial, provided it does not break the law, is the right thing to do.”
Musk has faced widespread criticism over the rise of disinformation and hate content since he bought the social media platform for $44 billion in 2022, criticism that intensified in the weeks following the escalation of the Israel-Hamas war last October.
The reported spread of fake and misleading content on the conflict led the EU to launch an investigation into X. And things got worse for Musk after progressive watchdog group Media Matters published a report alleging that X had run ads for major companies next to neo-Nazi posts.
The Media Matters report and Musk’s endorsement of an antisemitic post sparked a backlash from several public figures and culminated in an advertiser exodus, as multiple companies pulled their ads from the site, including giants such as Apple, IBM, Disney and Coca-Cola. According to a New York Times report, this could result in a loss of up to $75 million for X.
Musk has since apologized for the antisemitic post — admitting he should not have replied to it — and then traveled to Israel to meet with President Isaac Herzog and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in what could be seen as an apology tour.
Speaking about his visit to Israel, Musk said indoctrinated Hamas fighters have to be “killed or imprisoned” to prevent them from killing more Israelis. And the next step is fighting further indoctrination in Gaza, he added.
“The indoctrination of hate into kids in Gaza has to stop,” Musk said. “I understand the need to invade Gaza, and unfortunately some innocent people will die, there’s no way around it, but the most important thing to ensure is that afterwards the indoctrination … stops.”
According to Gaza’s Health Ministry, Israeli airstrikes and ground attacks have killed over 25,000 Palestinians and wounded more than 60,000 since the attack by Hamas on October 7, in which Israeli officials say the militant group killed over 1,200 nationals and foreigners and took 240 hostages.
Musk said the West has shifted to a mentality that equates smaller, weaker groups with goodness.
“We need to stop the principle that the normally weaker party is always right, this is simply not true,” Musk said. “If you are oppressed or the weaker party it doesn’t mean you’re right.”
Musk — who joked multiple times that he considers himself “Jew by aspiration” and “by association” — was supposed to visit the Auschwitz-Birkenau Nazi concentration camp on Tuesday alongside other speakers and political leaders from the EJA conference, but he instead took a private tour of the site with his young son.
The Auschwitz Museum itself was among one of the entities that had called out Musk for failing to contain antisemitic content.
Danny Jia was walking down a street outside Taiwan’s Taoyuan city in late December when he suddenly heard automatic gunfire.
Not far from Jia’s location that morning, the 249th mechanised infantry brigade of the Taiwanese armed forces was conducting military drills at Guanyin beach on the island’s northwest coast.
“I was so startled that I almost dropped my phone,” the 46-year-old civil servant told Al Jazeera.
“The exercises are also a scary reminder that a war might actually come to Taiwan in the future,” Jia said.
Guanyin beach is one of Taiwan’s so-called “red beaches” – stretches of the coastline that in the event of a Chinese invasion, offer the most favourable conditions for amphibious landing assaults.
For China’s military planners, Guanyin beach would be particularly suitable as it lies less than 18 kilometres (11 miles) from Taiwan’s primary international airport, and only about 50 kilometres (31 miles) from the outskirts of the Taiwanese capital, Taipei.
Democratic and self-ruled Taiwan has never been part of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), but Beijing considers Taiwan to be part of its territory and has not ruled out using force to bring the island under its control.
In his new year speech, Chinese President Xi Jinping called Taiwan’s unification with mainland China “inevitable”.
With the ever-present threat of China’s troops spilling onto Taiwan’s shores one day, Jia believes that the military drills on red beaches serve an important purpose in preparing the Taiwanese military for the worst.
Recently, however, Jia has found himself convinced that such a scenario is far from certain due to events in China’s own military ranks.
At the end of December, nine high-ranking military officers were removed from their positions.
Several of those axed were from the Chinese military’s elite “rocket force”, which oversees China’s tactical and nuclear missiles.
Earlier, in August, two leading figures in the rocket force were likewise removed.
That same month, the then-Chinese defence minister, Li Shuangfu, went missing.
Li has since been dismissed and replaced by Dong Jun.
With so many changes among the top brass, Jia said he failed to see how the Chinese armed forces could be prepared for the complex planning involved in a large-scale assault on Taiwan in the near future.
“I think there is too much chaos in China’s military for that,” he said.
A limited Taiwanese respite
People in Taiwan have reasons to feel more secure, according to Christina Chen, a research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) think tank.
“The removal of senior officers demonstrates that Xi Jinping is clearly not confident in the military, and that reduces the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan in the near term,” Chen told Al Jazeera.
The relatively large number of Chinese officers expelled in such a short time can also affect the armed forces’ fighting spirit as uncertainty spreads as to who will be targeted next.
“More removals might follow and that could further weaken the morale of the military and its ability to fight,” Chen said.
While the risk of an imminent conflict in the Taiwan Strait may have been reduced, Chen sees Beijing’s long-term goal of taking over Taiwan staying firmly in place.
China’s new defence minister, Dong Jun, has experience with military matters regarding Taiwan from his previous roles as commander of the Chinese navy, deputy commander of the Southern Theatre Command and deputy commander of China’s East Sea Fleet.
Although a defence minister serves mostly a diplomatic and public role in China, the appointment of the highly experienced Dong Jun was not arbitrary, according to Chen.
It reflects Beijing’s overall ambition of turning China into a maritime power that can rival the United States and eventually annex Taiwan, she said.
Beijing has in recent years increasingly projected its growing maritime and air power in Taiwan’s direction.
Sabre-rattling rhetoric and large-scale military drills in the waters close to Taiwan have also accompanied times of particular tension.
This was the case in the aftermath of then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei in 2022 and after Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s stopover in San Francisco last year where she met with Pelosi’s successor, Kevin McCarthy.
Some observers expect a similarly assertive Chinese reaction leading up to President-elect William Lai Ching-te taking office in May following his victory in the Taiwanese presidential election on January 13.
Beijing has branded Lai a separatist and declared that the election result would not change the Chinese government’s stance on Taiwan’s unification with the mainland.
Chen sees Beijing’s pressure campaign directed at Taiwan continuing despite the dismissals in the Chinese military ranks.
“That will not change no matter how many military officers are removed,” she said.
The biggest purge
According to Associate Professor Alfred Wu, a scholar specialising in corruption and governance in China at the National University of Singapore, the removal of Chinese military officials is more than a simple shake-up.
“In addition to the anticorruption effort, it is a purge,” Wu told Al Jazeera.
“Xi Jinping is strengthening his hold over the military and sending a signal to all those that are not completely aligned with him that they might be next and therefore should be afraid,” he said.
Wu described the use of fear as a tool employed to try to secure loyalty in China’s authoritarian state structure where a lack of oversight and transparency can easily result in corruption and poor governance.
Since Xi came to power in 2012, several anticorruption campaigns have resulted in purges throughout the Chinese state apparatus.
The Chinese military has long had a reputation for corruption, but the fact that the army’s elite rocket force has been targeted is unprecedented.
The scale of the crackdown has left observers describing it as one of the biggest in Chinese military history.
Under the rule of Xi, who has called for the military’s absolute loyalty, purges are, in Wu’s words, “a continuous process”.
Purges might even grow in frequency and magnitude, according to Wu, as the legitimacy that the Chinese government enjoyed during the country’s economic boom years comes under strain at a time when the Chinese economy is showing signs of weakness.
“The economic situation might cause insecurity to grow within the Chinese government leading them to take more hawkish steps to secure loyalty within the state and in the military,” he said.
However, continuing purges within the Chinese military may have a lingering impact on its capabilities.
“It’s difficult to fight a war if many of your generals are in jail,” Wu said.
Back on the outskirts of Taoyuan city near one of Taiwan’s “red beaches”, Jia, the civil servant who was startled by the military exercises in December, said that he doesn’t wish ill on anyone.
But he also hopes the purges continue if they protect peace.
“I hope that more Chinese officers will lose their jobs if it means we won’t get a war.”
Pakistan’s military carried out targeted strikes against militant hideouts in Iran on Thursday, responding to an attack by Tehran a day earlier in a rare escalation of tensions that both sides signaled they don’t want to see get worse.
Pakistan carried out morning strikes against “terrorist hideouts” in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement. The move followed Iran’s strikes against Jaish al-Adl, a separatist group based in Pakistan’s Balochistan province.
“This action is a manifestation of Pakistan’s unflinching resolve to protect and defend its national security against all threats,” the foreign ministry said in a statement explaining its retaliatory actions.
The tit-for-tat response is the most significant escalation between the two neighbors, both allies of China who have had strained relations in the past. While the strikes come at a time of rising turmoil in the Middle East over the Israel-Hamas war, Pakistani and Iranian officials also moved to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian phoned his Pakistani counterpart on Wednesday in an apparent move to ease tensions, even as Islamabad insisted it had the right to respond to the “illegal act” by Tehran.
“Both sides right now will try to de-escalate while saving face, and the Chinese must be getting involved because they have close ties with both sides,” Jean-Loup Samaan, a senior research fellow at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore.
‘Dialogue and Cooperation’
Pakistan’s interim Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq cut short a trip to the World Economic Forum in Switzerland on Thursday to help manage the crisis. That came after Pakistan downgraded its diplomatic ties by recalling its envoy to Tehran and asking the Iranian ambassador not to return to Islamabad.
But there were words of caution as well.
“Pakistan has also always emphasized dialogue and cooperation,” Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, the foreign ministry spokeswoman, told reporters Thursday. “We will continue to engage with our neighbor Iran to ensure that peace prevails and that the two countries make concerted and coordinated efforts to combat the threat of terrorism.”
Baloch said Pakistan and Iran have “several channels of communication” to discuss the latest events. China also said it is tracking the developments.
“We hope both parties can exercise restraint and calmness, and can avoid escalation,” China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Mao Ning, said Thursday.
Oil gained as the latest incidents underlined the region’s tensions, which have already created headwinds for global shipping and carry the potential for interruptions to crude production. Brent crude rose above $78 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate topped $73.
Iran said its strikes in Pakistan were aimed at Jaish al-Adl, a separatist group based in a largely ungoverned area bordering Iran that Tehran says has been a source of instability. Pakistan said that attack killed two children and injured three others.
Jaish al-Adl is designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S. and the Sunni militant group operates along predominantly Shiite Iran’s porous border with Pakistan. It’s launched multiple attacks on Iranian security forces, most recently a December assault on a police station that killed 11 people.
As many as nine people were killed during Pakistan’s return attack, which hit in two locations around the border city of Saravan at around 4:30 a.m., AFP reported, citing Iranian media.
JERUSALEM — U.S. Navy SEALs seized Iranian-made missile parts and other weaponry from a ship bound for Yemen’s Houthi rebels in a raid last week that saw two of its commandos go missing, the U.S. military said Tuesday.
Meanwhile, a new ship came under suspected fire from the Houthis in the Red Sea and sustained some damage, though no one was wounded, officials said.
The raid marks the latest seizure by the U.S. Navy and its allies of weapon shipments bound for the rebels, who have launched a series of attacks now threatening global trade in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden over Israel’s war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The seized missile components included types likely used in those attacks.
The SEAL raid happened last Thursday, with the commandos launching from the USS Lewis B. Puller backed by drones and helicopters, with the U.S. military’s Central Command saying it took place in the Arabian Sea.
The SEALs found cruise and ballistic missile components, including propulsion and guidance devices, as well as warheads, Central Command said. It added that air defense parts also were found.
“Initial analysis indicates these same weapons have been employed by the Houthis to threaten and attack innocent mariners on international merchant ships transiting in the Red Sea,” Central Command said in a statement.
Images released by the U.S. military analyzed by The Associated Press showed components resembling rocket motors and others previously seized. It also included what appeared to be a cruise missile with a small turbojet engine — a type used by the Houthis and Iran.
The U.S. Navy ultimately sunk the ship carrying the weapons after deeming it unsafe, Central Command said. The ship’s 14 crew have been detained.
The Houthis have not acknowledged the seizure and Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Meanwhile Tuesday, a missile struck the Malta-flagged bulk carrier Zografia in the Red Sea. The vessel had been heading north to the Suez Canal when it was attacked, the Greek Shipping and Island Policy Ministry said.
The ship — managed by a Greek firm— had no cargo on board and sustained only material damage, the ministry said. The crew included 20 Ukrainians, three Filipinos and one Georgian.
Satellite-tracking data analyzed by The Associated Press showed the Zografia still moving after the attack.
The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, which monitors incidents in the Mideast’s waterways, earlier acknowledged an attack in the vicinity of the Zografia.
Since November, the Houthis have repeatedly targeted ships in the Red Sea, saying they were avenging Israel’s offensive in Gaza against Hamas. But they have frequently targeted vessels with tenuous or no clear links to Israel, imperiling shipping in a key route for global trade.
The SEALs traveled in small special operations combat craft driven by naval special warfare crew to get to the boat. As they were boarding it in rough seas, around 8 p.m. local time, one SEAL got knocked off by high waves and a teammate went in after him. Both remain missing.
___
Associated Press writers Elena Becatoros in Athens, Greece, and Tara Copp in Washington contributed to this report.
An increasingly belligerent Russian President Vladimir Putin could attack the NATO military alliance in less than a decade, Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned.
“We hear threats from the Kremlin almost every day … so we have to take into account that Vladimir Putin might even attack a NATO country one day,” Pistorius told German outlet Der Tagesspiegel in an interview published Friday.
While a Russian attack is not likely “for now,” the minister added: “Our experts expect a period of five to eight years in which this could be possible.”
Following the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has upped its aggressive rhetoric against some of its neighbors — including the Baltic countries and Poland, which are all members of NATO, and Moldova — prompting top European defense officials to warn of the risk of a major conflict.
On Wednesday, the chair of NATO’s military committee of national chiefs Admiral Rob Bauer said the military alliance faced “the most dangerous world in decades” and called for a “warfighting transformation of NATO.”
Earlier this month, Sweden’s commander-in-chief General Micael Bydén similarly called on Swedes to “prepare themselves mentally” for war.
The same day, Sweden’s Minister for Civil Defense Carl-Oskar Bohlin also warned that “war could come to Sweden.”
In his interview with Der Tagesspiegel, Pistorius said the Swedish warnings were “understandable from a Scandinavian perspective,” adding that Sweden faced “an even more serious situation,” given its proximity to Russia. It is also not yet a member of the NATO alliance, waiting for approval from Turkey and Hungary to join.
“But we also have to learn to live with danger again and prepare ourselves — militarily, socially and in terms of civil defense,” Pistorius warned.
Poland, which is spending more than 4 percent of its GDP on defense this year, is also worried about Russia’s unpredictability following the unexpected attack on Ukraine in 2022.
“Russia is defying logic. What happened in 2022 seemed impossible. We must be ready for any scenario,” Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said in a television interview earlier this week.
Late last year, Germany revamped its military and strategic doctrine for the first time since 2011, aiming to turn the Bundeswehr into a war-capable military.
“War has returned to Europe. Germany and its allies once again have to deal with a military threat. The international order is under attack in Europe and around the globe. We are living in a turning point,” said the first paragraph of the new doctrine.
Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, an outspoken Putin critic who has been one of the loudest voices in support of Ukraine in the EU, on Thursday called on Europe to speed up preparations for more Russian aggression.
“There’s a chance that Russia might not be contained in Ukraine,” Landsbergis told French newswire AFP at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “There is no scenario in this that if Ukraine doesn’t win, that could end well for Europe,” he warned.
TEL AVIV — As he tries to cling to power, Benjamin Netanyahu is being buffeted by contradictory demands over the direction of the war in Gaza. His war cabinet is increasingly urging a cease-fire deal to be struck with Hamas — to secure the return of Israeli hostages — while lawmakers in his own Likud party are pushing in the opposite direction and pressing for military operations to remain unrelenting.
Unable to square the circle, the Israeli leader appears to have chosen to postpone decisions about the direction of the war, but it is doubtful they can be delayed for much longer. A public groundswell is starting to build for military operations to be put on hold and for a cease-fire to be reached with Hamas for the release of more than a hundred Israelis still being held in Gaza.
There’s rising alarm about the captives’ treatment and the conditions they are enduring. Thousands of Israelis took to the streets over the weekend calling for the hostages to be prioritized over the military campaign. And in a television interview Thursday, a war cabinet minister, Gadi Eisenkot, a former and highly popular chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), warned the only way to save hostages in the near term is through a deal even if that comes at a high price.
Eisenkot, whose 25-year-old son and 19-year-old nephew died fighting in Gaza in December, also appeared to criticize Netanyahu’s management of the war with Hamas, suggesting the Israeli leadership is not telling the Israeli public the truth about the conflict and that talk of destroying Hamas is over-blown. A complete victory over the militant group is unrealistic, he said.
“Whoever speaks of the absolute defeat [of Hamas in Gaza] and of it no longer having the will or the capability [to harm Israel], is not speaking the truth. That is why we should not tell tall tales,” Eisenkot said.
Eisenkot also said elections should be held soon to restore public trust in the Israeli government following the devastating October 7 attack on southern Israel by Hamas. Eisenkot is seen by some as a future prime minister candidate, favored by some even over Benny Gantz, a former defense minister. The two are leaders of the centrist National Unity Party and agreed to join Netanyahu’s war cabinet after October 7 as a demonstration of national solidarity.
The Eisenkot interview, broadcast by Israel’s Channel 12 News, was especially damaging as it was broadcast hours after Netanyahu rejected in a press conference the idea of holding elections in the middle of a war. Netanyahu said he could continue in power well into 2025. He vowed to “bring about a complete victory” over Hamas.
Netanyahu’s indecision is also infuriating his own lawmakers — they worry there is a lack of defined goals beyond the slogan of “destroying Hamas,” and fear the prime minister will cave to pressure for a cease-fire. And they complain about a throttling back of military operations, which has seen the IDF move away from large-scale ground operations and air strikes to conduct more targeted missions.
Tactical transition
Senior Israeli military officials first confirmed on January 8 the tactical transition, with military spokesman Daniel Hagari saying the IDF would reduce troop numbers in the Palestinian enclave and conduct “one-off raids there instead of maintaining wide-scale maneuvers.”
Described as Phase 3 in the military campaign, officials in briefings cast the transition as necessary to give reservists some rest for the long haul in a war they say will take months, and to return others to their jobs to help the country’s ailing economy. The officials also said some troops needed to be redeployed to Israel’s tense northern border, where Hezbollah attacks have prompted Israel to threaten a ground campaign in Lebanon.
But the reasons given for the adjustment are disputed by some Likud lawmakers, including by Danny Danon, a former U.S. envoy to the U.N. He and others view the shift more than anything as an effort to placate the Biden administration and European governments anxious about the civilian death toll in Gaza. And there’s mounting talk of a possible future party leadership challenge to Netanyahu.
“We hear a lot of declarations both from the prime minister and [Defense Minister] Yoav Gallant almost every day about how we’re going to eradicate and destroy Hamas. But when you look at what’s happening now, I’m not sure it’s going in that direction,” Danon told POLITICO in an exclusive interview. “If he will not win the war, then I’m sure there will be another leader from the right that will step in because that will be the time,” he added.
Danon has twice challenged Netanyahu for the party leadership, in 2007 and 2014, but waves off a question about whether he will again seek the party’s leadership, saying merely that Likud is growing uneasy. “I speak with a lot of people and I hear them. They demand victory,” he said. “He’s being tested. Netanyahu has done a lot for Israel over the years, but he will be remembered by the way he finishes the war.”
Danon said the only acceptable conclusion to the war is “either Hamas surrenders or it is destroyed.” Military pressure is what led to the release of some hostages in December, he said. “What has happened now is that we have changed the way we are conducting the operation because of the pressure coming from the U.S.,” he added.
With opinion polls suggesting Likud has lost a third of its electoral support since October 7, Danon suggested victory could restore the party’s fortunes as well as being necessary for the security of Israel. “We need to hit Hamas so hard they will not be able to come against us anymore,” he said, adding that prime ministers, including Netanyahu have too often pulled up short before and announced Israel has been made safe and its enemies have now been deterred only for attacks to resume. “You cannot play that game anymore,” he said.
Party unease
With Likud members becoming increasingly restless, Netanyahu is more and more focusing on trying to tamp down internal party dissent. “It is all about Likud at the moment,” said a senior Israeli official, who was granted anonymity to talk about a sensitive issue. The official acknowledged that talk of a party rebellion might be premature and that Likud critics would have to calculate that an attempt to oust Netanyahu could ultimately trigger early elections that would see Likud lose badly. Nonetheless, the Israeli leader is agitated about the unease within the ranks of a party that he molded over the years in his own image, stacking it with loyalists and promoting those who share his views.
Likud disapproval partly explains Netanyahu’s strong push back last week on Washington’s readout of a phone conversation between the Israeli leader and U.S. President Joe Biden — their first since December. Israeli officials on Saturday took issue with Biden’s remarks after the call in which he said a two-state solution may still be possible even while Netanyahu is in power. Biden told reporters some “types” of two-state solution may be acceptable to the Israeli premier, even though Netanyahu has frequently ruled out the notion of establishing a Palestinian state alongside Israel.
Netanyahu’s office reiterated his rigid opposition in a statement sent to POLITICO following Biden’s take. “In his conversation with President Biden, Prime Minister Netanyahu reiterated his policy that after Hamas is destroyed Israel must retain security control over Gaza to ensure that Gaza will no longer pose a threat to Israel, a requirement that contradicts the demand for Palestinian sovereignty,” his office said.
A two-state solution is anathema for the right-wing of the Likud party.
Lying along the Kaladar River in Chin State, Paletwa is a strategically important city on a major trade route.
The Arakan Army (AA), an armed ethnic group fighting as part of an alliance against the Myanmar military, has claimed control of a key western town near the border with India and Bangladesh.
The AA, which was in an uneasy truce with the military until late October, said it took full control of Paletwa in Chin State on Sunday afternoon, having overrun multiple military outposts.
“There is not a single military council camp left in the entire Palewa area,” it said in a statement on its media page, which was accompanied by photos showing AA soldiers posing with their weapons outside key administrative buildings adorned with the group’s flag as well as weapons, ammunition and military equipment it had seized.
“The entire Palewa region has been successfully controlled by [the] Rakhine Army,” the statement added.
There was no comment from the military on the situation in Paletwa, or any reports in state-run media.
The capture of Paletwa is another setback to the generals who are facing the biggest challenge since they seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in a coup in February 2021.
#AA 🎉declares #PaletwaVictory! Seizing the last ‘Hnamadar’ & ‘Khan Kha Taung,’ Paletwa is #SAC_free. “Mee Wa” seized after nearly 2 years of attacks. Today, Paletwa is AA-controlled. Salute Arakkha Soldiers for bravery, obedience and seamless cooperation. #3BHA#Operation1027pic.twitter.com/IaCnenjHUa
The AA claims to have about 30,000 troops and is part of the so-called Three Brotherhood Alliance with the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta’Ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) that launched a major offensive against the military at the end of October.
Known as Operation 1027, the offensive has wrested control of key towns and military outposts near the border with China in the north and given renewed momentum to the anti-coup movement.
Dr Sasa, the minister of international cooperation in the National Unity Government set up by politicians removed in the coup, welcomed the AA capture of Paletwa.
“This is a significant success for the Nationwide Revolution, the Spring Revolution of Myanmar, the fight to free to entire population of Myanmar from the genocidal military dictatorship and to restore Myanmar to the path of an inclusive federal democratic Union for ALL,” he wrote on X.
42nd town to fall
The AA’s advance comes days after China announced it had brokered a ceasefire between the armed groups and the military in northern Shan State. A similar agreement in December quickly collapsed.
The AA has been fighting the military in Rakhine, where a brutal military crackdown on the Rohingya in 2017 is now the subject of a genocide case at the International Court of Justice, in an attempt to secure autonomy for its ethnic population.
Just before Myanmar’s national election in November 2020, the AA agreed to a truce with the military but when the generals seized power the AA’s political wing, the United League of Arakan (ULA), took the opportunity to extend and entrench its power in Rakhine and fighting resumed amid military concern at the AA’s growing power.
Chin State lies north of Rakhine and Paletwa is situated along the Kaladan River about 20km (12 miles) from the border with Bangladesh.
Nathan Ruser, an analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s Cyber, Tech and Security programme, who has been mapping the advance of anti-coup forces, said the town was the 42nd nationwide to be captured from the military with 16 still being contested.
In addition, 25 battalion headquarters have been captured since the offensive started three months ago, “clearly marking the decisive shift towards offensive warfare by the resistance”, Ruser wrote on X.
The military coup triggered mass rallies demanding the restoration of civilian rule but when the military responded with brutal force, many protesters took up arms, joining forces with ethnic armed groups on the country’s borders.
The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a Myanmar advocacy group that has been tracking the crisis, says at least 4,363 civilians and pro-democracy activists have been killed by the military in the escalating violence, and nearly 20,000 people have been jailed by the regime.
Iran’s navy on Thursday boarded and seized a Greek-operated oil tanker, the St. Nikolas, off the coast of Oman.
The high seas seizure heightens tensions with the West, not far from where Iran-backed Houthi rebels have been attacking merchant ships and facing off with American and British naval vessels in the Red Sea.
The tanker was transiting through the Strait of Hormuz en route to Turkey when the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported hearing “unknown voices” on board. Iranian news agency IRNA later confirmed its navy had seized the ship.
The St. Nikolas, operated by Greek shipping venture Empire Navigation, was previously known as the Suez Rajan. It was at the center of a dispute between Washington and Tehran in April last year after U.S. authorities seized the ship, loaded with 1 million barrels of Iranian crude oil.
The oil was ultimately ordered to be discharged in Houston by the U.S. Department of Justice. The Greek company pleaded guilty to smuggling sanctioned Iranian oil in September and paid a $2.4 million fine. The oil was sold at auction and profits were earmarked as compensation for American victims of terrorism.
Empire Navigation confirmed to AP that a crew of 18 Filipinos and the Greek captain are on board the vessel which is now in Iranian hands.
Speaking to POLITICO, Mark Wallace, former American ambassador to the U.N. and CEO of the United Against Nuclear Iran pressure group, said he was “extremely” concerned about the welfare of the crew and criticized the failure of Washington to respond to the seizure, despite the ship being under the protection of the U.S. Department of Justice.
Following the ship being boarded, he said, “we had about five hours until it got into Iranian territorial waters and the U.S. took no action … it looks like the U.S. and its allies have lost control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Strait of Hormuz.”
Tehran’s move elevates the risk of wider conflict erupting in the region, where a U.S.-led coalition is currently patrolling the Red Sea to safeguard commercial ships from Houthi attacks.
On December 31, the U.S. navy engaged the Shia militant group and destroyed three boats that were harassing a Maersk ship. Just days later, Iran dispatched a warship to the Red Sea to back the Houthis.
On Tuesday, British and American navy forces thwarted the largest Houthi attack yet on vessels in the Red Sea. A total of 21 drones and various types of ballistic missiles were downed. No damage to ships was reported.
“Watch this space,” warned U.K. Defense Secretary Grant Shapps after the military action, vowing to step up retaliation against Houthi militants if they didn’t back down.
Western warplanes and guided missiles roared through the skies over Yemen in the early hours of Friday in a dramatic response to the worsening crisis engulfing the region, where the U.S. and its allies are facing a direct confrontation with Iranian-backed militants.
The strikes against Houthi fighters are a response to weeks of fighting in the Red Sea, where the group has attempted to attack or hijack dozens of civilian cargo ships and tankers in what it calls retribution for Israel’s military offensive in Gaza. Washington launched the massive aerial bombardment of the group’s military stores and drone launch sites in partnership with British forces, and with the support of a growing coalition that includes Germany, the Netherlands, Australia, Canada, South Korea and Bahrain.
Tensions between Tehran and the West have boiled over in the weeks since its ally, Hamas, launched its October 7 attack on Israel, while Hezbollah, the military group that controls much of southern Lebanon, has stepped up rocket launches across the border. Along with Hamas and Hezbollah, the Houthis form part of the Iranian-led ‘Axis of Resistance’ opposed to both the U.S. and Israel.
Now, the prospect of a full-blown conflict in one of the most politically fragile and strategically important parts of the world is spooking security analysts and energy markets alike.
Escalation fears
Houthi leaders responded to the strikes, which saw American and British forces hit more than 60 targets in 16 locations, with characteristic bravado. They warned the U.S. and U.K. will “have to prepare to pay a heavy price and bear all the dire consequences” for what they called a “blatant aggression.”
“We will confront America, kneel it down, and burn its battleships and all its bases and everyone who cooperates with it, no matter what the cost,” threatened Abdulsalam Jahaf, a member of the group’s security council.
However, following the overnight operation, Camille Lons, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said there may now be “a period of calm because it may take Iran some time to replenish the Houthis stocks” before they are able to resume high-intensity attacks on Red Sea shipping. But, she cautioned, their motivation to continue to target shipping will likely be unaltered.
The Western strikes are “unlikely to immediately halt Houthi aggression,” agreed Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. national intelligence officer for the Near East. “That will almost certainly mean having to continue to respond to Houthi strikes, and potentially with increasing aggression.”
“The Houthis view themselves as having little to lose, emboldened militarily by Iranian provisions of support and confident the U.S. will not entertain a ground war,” he said.
Iran also upped the ante earlier this week by boarding and commandeering a Greek-operated oil tanker that was loaded with Iraqi crude destined for Turkey, intercepting it as it transited the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel, the St. Nikolas, was previously apprehended for violating sanctions on Iranian oil and its cargo was confiscated and sold off by the U.S. Treasury Department. Its Greek captain and crew of 18 Filipino nationals are now in Iranian custody, with the incident marking a sharp escalation in the threats facing maritime traffic.
Israeli connection
Washington and London are striving to distinguish their bid to deter the Houthis in the Red Sea from the war in Gaza, fearful that merging the two will hand Tehran a propaganda advantage in the Middle East. The Houthis and Iran are keen to accomplish the reverse.
The Houthi leadership claims its attacks on maritime traffic are aimed at pressuring Israel to halt its bombing of the Gaza Strip and it insists it is only targeting commercial vessels linked to Israel or destined to dock at the Israeli port of Eilat, a point contested by Western powers.
“The Houthis claim that their attacks on military and civilian vessels are somehow tied to the ongoing conflict in Gaza — that is completely baseless and illegitimate. The Houthis also claim to be targeting specifically Israeli-owned ships or ships bound for Israel. That is simply not true, they are firing indiscriminately on vessels with global ties,” a senior U.S. official briefing reporters in Washington said Friday.
Wider Near East crisis
The Red Sea isn’t the only hotspot where American and European forces and their allies are facing off against Iran and its partners.
In November, U.S. F-15 fighter jets hit a weapons storage facility in eastern Syria that the Pentagon says was used by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Shia militants it supports in the war-torn country. The response came after dozens of American troops were reportedly injured in attacks in Iraq and Syria linked back to Tehran.
Israel’s war with Hamas has also risked spreading, after a blast killed one of the militant group’s commanders in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, earlier in January. Hezbollah vowed a swift response and tensions have soared along the border between the two countries, with Israeli civilians evacuated from their homes in towns and villages close to the frontier.
All of that contributes to an increasingly volatile environment that has neighboring countries worried, said Christian Koch, director at the Saudi Arabia-based Gulf Research Center.
“There’s a lot at stake at the moment and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and others are extremely worried about further escalation and then being subject to retaliation,” he said. “Now, the danger of regional escalation has been heightened further, which could mean that Iran will get further involved in the conflict, and this is a dangerous spiral downwards.”
While long-planned efforts to normalize ties between the Saudis and Israel collapsed in the wake of the October 7 attack and the subsequent military response, Riyadh has pushed forward with a policy of de-escalation with the Houthis after a decade of violent conflict, and sought an almost unprecedented rapprochement with Iran.
“Saudi Arabia has had one objective, which is to prevent this from escalating into a wider regional war,” said Tobias Borck, an expert on Middle East security at the Royal United Services Institute. “It has attempted over the last few years to bring its intervention in the war in Yemen to a close, including through negotiations with the Houthis and actually from all we know from the outside, [they] are reasonably close to an agreement.”
The Western coalition is therefore a source of anxiety, rather than relief, for Gulf States.
“Saudi Arabia and UAE are staying out of this coalition because mainly they don’t want to have the Houthis attack them as they had been for years and years with cruise missiles,” said retired U.S. General Mark Kimmitt, a former U.S. assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs. However, American or European boots on the ground are unlikely to be necessary, he added, because “our capabilities these days to find, fix and attack even mobile missile launchers is pretty well refined.”
Far-reaching consequences
At the intersection of Europe and Asia, the Red Sea is a vital thoroughfare for energy and international trade. Maritime traffic through the region has already dropped by 20 percent, Rear Admiral Emmanuel Slaars, the joint commander of French forces in the region, told reporters on Thursday.
According to data published this week by the German IfW Kiel institute, global trade fell by 1.3 percent from November to December, with the Houthi attacks likely to have been a contributing factor.
The volume of containers in the Red Sea also plummeted and is currently almost 70 percent below usual, the institute said. In December, that caused freight costs and transportation time to rise and imports and exports from the EU to be “significantly lower” than in November.
In one indication of the impact on industrial supply chains, U.S. electric vehicle maker Tesla said Friday it would shut its factory in Germany for two weeks.
Around 12 percent of the world’s oil and 8 percent of its gas normally flow through the waterway, as well as hundreds of cargo ships. Oil prices climbed more than 2.5 percent following the strikes, fueling market concerns of the impact a wider conflict could have on oil supplies from the region, especially those being shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, linking the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean and the world’s most important oil chokepoint.
The Houthi attacks on the Red Sea, one of the world’s busiest waterways, have already caused major shipping companies, including oil giant BP, to halt shipments through the Red Sea, opting for a lengthy detour around the Cape of Good Hope instead.
According to Borck, the impact on energy prices has been limited so far but will depend on what happens next.
“We need to look for two actors’ actions here. One is the Houthis, how they respond, and the other one is, of course, looking at how Iran responds,” he said. While Tehran has the “nuclear option” of closing the Strait of Hormuz altogether, it’s unlikely to do so at this stage.
“I don’t think the Strait of Hormuz is next. I think there would be quite a few steps on the escalation ladder first,” he added.
But Simone Tagliapietra, an energy expert at Brussels’ Bruegel think tank, warned that a growing confrontation with Iran could lead to tougher enforcement of sanctions on its oil exports. The West has turned a blind eye to Tehran’s increasing sales to China in the wake of the war in Ukraine, which has relieved some pressure on global energy markets.
A crackdown, he believes, “could see global oil prices rising substantially, pushing inflation higher and further complicating the efforts of central banks to bring it under control.”
However, Saudi Arabia and the UAE could help compensate for such a move by ramping up their own production — provided they’re willing to risk the ire of Iran.
Gabriel Gavin reported from Yerevan, Armenia. Antonia Zimmermann from Brussels and Jamie Dettmer from Tel-Aviv.
Laura Kayali contributed reporting from Paris.
[ad_2]
Gabriel Gavin, Antonia Zimmermann and Jamie Dettmer
It’s that time of year again: Leaders, business titans, philanthropists and celebs descend on the Swiss ski town of Davos to discuss the fate of the world and do deals/shots with the global elite at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum.
This year’s theme: “Rebuilding trust.” Prescient, given the dumpster fire the world seems to be turning into lately, both literally (climate change) and figuratively (where to even begin?).
As always, the Davos great and good will be rubbing shoulders with some of the world’s absolute top-drawer dirtbags. While there’s been a distinct dearth of Russian oligarchs in attendance at the WEF since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Donald Trump will be tied up with the Iowa caucus, there are still plenty of would-be autocrats, dictators, thugs, extortionists, misery merchants, spoilers and political pariahs on the Davos guest list.
1. Argentine President Javier Milei
Known as the Donald Trump of Argentina — and also as “The Madman” and “The Wig” — the chainsaw-wielding Javier Milei has it all: a fanatical supporter base, background as a TV shock jock, libertarian anarcho-capitalist policies (except when it comes to abortion), and a … memorable … hairdo.
A long-time Davos devotee (he’s been attending the WEF for years), Milei’s libertarian policies have turned from kooky thought bubbles to concerning reality after he was elected president of South America’s second-largest economy, riding a wave of discontent with the political establishment (sound familiar?). The question now is how far Milei will go in delivering on his campaign promises to hack back public service and state spending, close the Argentine central bank and drop the peso.
If you do get stuck talking to Milei in the congress center or on the slopes, here are some conversation starters …
Rumor has it that Mohammed bin Salman will make his first in-person WEF appearance at this year’s event, accompanied by a giant posse of top Saudi officials.
It’s the ultimate redemption arc for the repressive authoritarian ruler of a country with an appalling human rights record — who, according to United States intelligence, personally ordered the brutal assassination of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018.
Rumor has it that Mohammed bin Salman will make his first in-person WEF appearance at this year’s event | Leon Neal/Getty Images
Perhaps MBS would still be a WEF pariah — consigned to rubbing shoulders with mere B-listers at his own Davos in the desert — if it were not for that other one-time Davos-darling-turned-persona-non-grata: Russian President Vladimir Putin. By launching his invasion of Ukraine, which killed thousands of civilians and hundreds of thousands of troops, Putin managed to push the West back into MBS’ embrace. Guess it’s all just oil under the bridge now.
Here’s a piece of free advice: Try to avoid being caught getting a signature MBS fist-bump. Unless, of course, you’re the next person on our list …
3. Jared Kushner, founder of Affinity Partners
Jared Kushner is the closest anyone on the mountain is likely to come to Trump, the former — and possibly future — billionaire baron-cum-anti-elitist president of the United States of America.
On the one hand, a chat with The Donald’s son-in-law in the days just after the Iowa caucus would probably be quite a get for the Davos devotee. On other hand … it’s Jared Kushner.
The 43-year-old, who is married to Ivanka Trump and served as a senior adviser to the former president during his time in office, leveraged his stint in the White House to build up a lucrative consulting career, focused mainly on the Middle East.
Kushner’s private equity firm, Affinity Partners, is largely funded through Gulf countries. That includes a $2 billion investment from the Saudi Public Investment Fund, led by bin Salman — which was, coincidentally, pushed through despite objections by the crown prince’s own advisers.
Kushner struck up a friendship and alliance with MBS during his father-in-law’s term in office, raising major conflict-of-interest suspicions for the Trump administration — especially when the then-U.S. president refused to condemn the Saudi leader in Jamal Khashoggi’s murder, despite the CIA concluding he was directly involved.
Running Azerbaijan is something of a family business for the Aliyevs — Ilham assumed power after the death of his father, Heydar Aliyev, an ex-Soviet KGB officer who ruled the country for decades. And the junior Aliyev changed Azerbaijan’s constitution to pave the path to power for the next generation of his family — and appointed his own wife as vice president to boot.
5. Chinese Premier Li Qiang
Li Qiang is Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ultra-loyal right-hand man, and will represent his boss and his country at the World Economic Forum this year.
Li’s claim to infamy: imposing a brutal lockdown on the entirety of Shanghai for weeks during the coronavirus pandemic, which trapped its 25 million-plus inhabitants at home while many struggled to get food, tend to their animals or seek medical help — and tanking the city’s economy in the process.
Li’s also the guy selling (and whitewashing) China’s Uyghur policy in the Islamic world. In case you need a refresher, China has detained Uyghurs, who are mostly Muslim, in internment camps in the northwest region of Xinjiang, where there have been allegations of torture, slavery, forced sterilization, sexual abuse and brainwashing. China’s actions have been branded genocide by the U.S. State Department, and as potential crimes against humanity by the United Nations.
Li Qiang will represent his boss and his country at the World Economic Forum this year | Johannes Simon/Getty Images
Nicknamed “the Napoleon of Africa” in a nod to his campaign to seize power in 1994, Paul Kagame has ruled over the land of a thousand hills since. He’s often praised for overseeing what is probably the greatest development success story of modern Africa; he’s also a dictator.
Forced from office in 2018 by mass protests following the murder of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and his fiancée Martina Kušnírová, Fico rose from the political ashes to become Slovakian prime minister for the fourth time late last year. His Smer party ran a Putin-friendly campaign, pledging to end all military support for Ukraine.
Slovakian courts are still working through multiple organized crime cases stemming from the last time Smer was in power, involving oligarchs alleged to have profited from state contracts; former top police brass and senior military intelligence officers; and parliamentarians from all three parties in Fico’s new coalition government.
8. President of Hungary Katalin Novák
Katalin Novák, elected Hungarian president in 2022, must’ve pulled the short straw: she’s been sent to Davos to fly the flag for the EU’s pariah state. Luckily, the 46-year-old is used to being the odd one out at a shindig: She’s both the first woman and the youngest-ever Hungarian president.
It’s her thoughts on the gender pay gap, though, that ought to get attention at the famously male-dominated World Economic Forum: In an infamous video posted back in late 2020, Novák told the sisterhood: “Do not believe that women have to constantly compete with men. Do not believe that every waking moment of our lives must be spent with comparing ourselves to men, and that we should work in at least the same position, for at least the same pay they do.” That’s us told.
9. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet
You may be surprised to see Hun Manet on this list: The new, Western-educated Cambodian prime minister has been touted in some circles as a potential modernizer and reformer.
But Hun Manet is less a breath of fresh air and a lot more continuation of the same stale story. Having inherited his position from his father, the longtime autocrat Hun Sen, Hun Manet has shown no signs of wanting to reform or modernize Cambodia. While some say it’s too early to tell where he’ll land (given his dad’s still on the scene, along with his Communist loyalists), the fact is: Many hallmarks of autocracy are still present in Cambodia. Repression of the opposition? Check. Dodgy “elections”? Check. Widespread graft and clientelism? Check and check.
10. Qatar Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani
How has a small kingdom of 2.6 million inhabitants in the Persian Gulf managed to play a starring role in so many explosive scandals?
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani is the prime minister of Qatar, a country that’s played a starring role in many explosive scandals | Chris J. Ratcliffe/AFP via Getty Images
You’d think that sort of record would see Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani shunned by the world’s top brass. Nah! Just this month, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with the Qatari leader and told him the U.S. was “deeply grateful for your ongoing leadership in this effort, for the tireless work which you undertook and that continues, to try to free the remaining hostages.”
See you on the slopes, Mohammed!
11. Polish President Andrzej Duda
When you compare Polish President Andrzej Duda to some of the others on this list, he doesn’t seem to measure up. He’s not a dictator running a violent petro-state, hasn’t invaded any neighbors or even wielded a chainsaw on stage.
But Duda is yesterday’s man. As the last one standing from Poland’s nationalist Law and Justice party that was swept out of office last year, Duda’s holding on for dear life to his own relevance, doing his best to act as a spoiler against the Donald Tusk-led government by wielding his veto powers and harboring convicted lawmakers. All of which is to say: When you catch up with President Duda at Davos, don’t assume he’s speaking for Poland.
12. Amin Nasser, CEO of Aramco
The Saudi Arabian state oil and gas company is Aramco — the world’s biggest energy firm — and Amin Nasser is its boss. If you read Aramco’s press releases, you’d be forgiven for assuming it is also the world’s biggest champion of the green energy transition. Spoiler alert: It’s far from it.
Exhibit A: Aramco is reportedly a top corporate polluter, with environment nongovernmental organization ClientEarth reporting that it accounts for more than 4 percent of the globe’s greenhouse gas emissions since 1965. Exhibit B: Bloomberg reported in 2021 that it understated its carbon footprint by as much as 50 percent.
Nasser, meanwhile, has criticized the idea that climate action should mean countries “either shut down or slow down big time” their fossil fuel production. Say that to Al Gore’s face!
This article has been updated to reflect the fact Shou Zi Chew is no longer going to attend the World Economic Forum.
Dionisios Sturis, Peter Snowdon, Suzanne Lynch and Paul de Villepin contributed reporting.
