Tag: Computing

How Nvidia’s Jensen Huang may be driving Fed rate-hike expectations

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“‘You could ask who is really running the show? Jerome Powell or Jensen Huang? Amazingly, it may not be Powell, but Jensen Huang who is driving Fed expectations.’”

— Ben Emons of NewEdge Wealth.

Those are the words of Ben Emons, a senior portfolio manager and the head of fixed income at NewEdge Wealth in New York, who identifies reasons why artificial-intelligence leader Nvidia Corp.
NVDA,
-2.77%
is demonstrating central-bank-like powers.

It starts with the idea that the Santa Clara, California-based chip designer — which reports fiscal second-quarter earnings on Wednesday — acts as a bellwether for AI-capital expenditures that are likely to boost productivity across the U.S. economy. And in the bond market, a surge of AI-related expectations is translating into higher real yields, which reflect inflation-adjusted growth in gross domestic product and productivity, he said.

Read: Nvidia’s stock snaps losing streak and sits 1% below record close as earnings optimism builds

Higher real yields in the U.S. are a key reason why 10-
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
and 30-year Treasury yields
BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
climbed to multi-year highs through Monday. Real yields, as measured by rates of Treasury inflation-protected securities, offer a glimpse of how the market expects the U.S. to perform when inflation isn’t a factor.

Read: Rise in Treasury yields is almost entirely due to one factor, strategist says

“The bigger macro story behind Nvidia as the bellwether of artificial intelligence is the role it plays in the economy, which is proving to be stronger than anyone thought it would be,” Emons said via phone on Tuesday. “People connect AI to productivity and productivity leads to growth, and to some extent this is impacting interest-rate expectations today.”

Amid growing anticipation over Nvidia’s upcoming earnings announcement and Friday’s speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole, Wyo., “the probability of a rate hike is creeping higher,” the senior portfolio manager wrote in a note this week. “With each additional dollar increase of NVDA EPS estimates, the probability of a hike by November goes up. NVDA is gaining Fed-like power.”

Need to Know: Nvidia may be the AI stock for now, but here are the picks for later, says Goldman Sachs

A chart provided by Emons shows how the median estimate of analysts for Nvidia’s earnings-per-share in the fiscal second quarter has been rising alongside the market-implied probabilities of a November Fed rate hike.

Source: Bloomberg, Nvidia

In addition, the yield on one of Nvidia’s own corporate bonds, issued in 2020 and maturing in April 2040, has been rising in relation to the 10-year TIPS or real yield “because of the company’s broader effect on the economy,” Emons said.

Source: Nvidia, U.S. Treasury

As University of Pennsylvania Wharton School finance professor Jeremy Siegel explained in a separate interview with MarketWatch, real interest rates track real growth. Improving productivity and stronger growth “mean the Fed won’t be able to cut rates as much as it would otherwise be able to.”

On Tuesday, Treasury yields finished mixed, while Nvidia’s shares closed down by 2.8%, as traders and investors await the company’s earnings report on Wednesday followed two days later by Powell’s remarks.

Analysts expect Powell to address what’s known as the real neutral rate of interest — or the inflation-adjusted level which is likely to prevail when the economy is operating at full strength and price gains are stable — as a way of justifying the higher-for-longer theme in U.S. interest rates.

See also: How higher-for-longer rates are playing out as 10-year yield hits 15-year high

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August 22, 2023

Nvidia may be the AI stock for now, but here are the picks for later, says Goldman Sachs

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Wall Street looks ready to build on Monday’s gains, the first in five sessions for the S&P 500
SPX
and Nasdaq Composite
COMP.
That’s as expectations build around Nvidia, which has had a lackluster August, to knock it out of the park with earnings on Wednesday.

Investors have had months to focus on AI darlings such as Nvidia. In our call of the day, Goldman Sachs takes a look at stocks to trade after the big AI trade. A team led by strategists Ryan Hammond and David Kostin complied a basket of companies with the biggest potential long-term earnings per share boost from the impact of AI adoption on labor productivity.

Their analysis indicates that following widespread AI adoption, EPS for the median stock in that basket could be 72% higher than the baseline, versus 19% for the median Russell 1000 stock.

“We estimate the potential productivity-related EPS boost from increased revenues or increased margins, using a combination of company-level estimates of the share of the wage bill exposed to AI automation and the labor cost to revenue ratio,” said the Goldman team.

Since early 2023, when AI emerged as a theme for investors, they note their long-term basket of stocks has outperformed the equal-weight S&P 500 by just 6 percentage points, far less than near-term beneficiaries such as Nvidia
NVDA,
-0.49%,
Microsoft
MSFT,
+0.94%
or Meta
META,
+0.51%.

Goldman Sachs Investment Research

“The estimated AI-driven earnings boost is likely to occur over the next few years, but should be reflected in stock valuations sooner. However, the eventual share price impact will depend on the ability of companies to use AI to enhance earnings,” said Goldman.

While unable to pin it exactly, Goldman expects AI adoption will start to a have a “meaningful macro impact” between 2025 and 2030, with regulatory constraints and data privacy concerns likely to slow widespread adoption. Nearly 75% of CEOs see AI take-up impacting companies or cutting labor needs within the next five years, even if they don’t right now.

Firms with the biggest workforce exposure to AI and larger and more innovative ones, will likely adopt generative AI earlier than others, say the strategists. They say to “expect valuation multiples for these companies to increase first as the adoption timeline crystallizes, even if actual adoption and the associated EPS boost is occur later.”

Goldman’s estimates on the potential earnings boost for those long-term AI beneficiaries consist of several factors: the share of each company’s wage bill exposed to AI automation, how much of a company’s wage bill is exposed to AI automation and labor cost as a share of revenue.

“For the typical Russell 1000 stock, 33% of the wage bill is potentially exposed to AI automation and labor costs currently represent 14% of total sales. The potential boost from higher sales would increase earnings by 11% and reduced labor costs would increase earnings by 26%, all else equal,” say the strategists.

Here is a taster of their long-term AI beneficiaries basket:

And a few more:

Read: U.S. stocks may bounce this week, but summer selloff is only halfway done, analysts warn

The markets

U.S. stocks
SPX

COMP
are trading mixed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
is steady at 4.33%.

For more market updates plus actionable trade ideas for stocks, options and crypto, subscribe to MarketDiem by Investor’s Business Daily.

The buzz

Microsoft
MSFT,
+0.94%
has proposed a Ubisoft license to win U.K. regulatory approval for its Activision Blizzard
ATVI,
+1.09%
buyout. Activision shares and Ubisoft
UBI,
+9.93%
surged in Paris.

On the heels of a 7% surge, EV-maker Tesla
TSLA,
+2.77%
is up 1.8%.

Opinion: SoftBank’s Arm is going public, but it faces a rapidly growing threat

Lowe’s shares
LOW,
+3.34%
are up after the DIY retailer’s earnings topped expectations, though it notes lower discretionary demand.

Among Monday’s late earnings news: Fabrinet
FN,
+27.25%
is up 18% after the high-tech manufacturing services company upbeat forecast, with new AI products helping drive results. Videoconferencing group Zoom Video Communications
ZM,
-4.15%
is up 4% after reporting an earnings jump and guidance.

Read: Why Amazon is this analyst’s top internet stock pick

The world’s biggest miner BHP
BHP,
-0.98%
reported a 58% slump in annual profit amid tumbling commodity prices in part due to China’s economic troubles. U.S.-listed shares are up 4%.

Arm Holdings filed its long-awaited IPO, which could be the year’s biggest. The chip designer aims to raise up to $10 billion with a valuation of $60 billion to $70 billion.

Existing home sales for July are due at 10 a.m., with several Fed speakers throughout the day: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin at 7:30 a.m. and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Fed. Gov. Michelle Bowman both at 2:30 p.m.

Best of the web

‘Own what the Mother of All Bubbles crowd doesn’t.’ This market strategist expects stagflation and is investing for it now.

New video shows the day police raided 98-year old Kansas newspaper owner’s home.

Hitler’s birth house in Austria will be turned into a police station with a human rights training center.

The tickers

These were the top tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.:

Ticker	Security name
TSLA, +2.77%	Tesla
NVDA, -0.49%	Nvidia
AMC, -17.31%	AMC Entertainment
NIO, -1.87%	Nio
APE, -11.32%	AMC Entertainment Holdings preferred shares
TTOO, -6.13%	T2 Biosystems
GME, -3.63%	GameStop
AAPL, +0.63%	Apple
MULN, -19.19%	Mullen Automotive
AMZN, +0.15%	Amazon.com

The chart

Is tech dancing to the beat of its own drum? The Chart Report flagged this one from Scott Brown, founder of Brown Technical Insights, showing performance of the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF
XLK
:

“It’s only been a week, but consensus and conventional wisdom suggest higher yields are bad for Growth/Tech stocks. Meanwhile, Tech is acting like it never got the memo. It’s still too early to tell if Tech is trying to tell us something, but Scott points out that the sector is facing a crucial test this week at the March 2022 highs (around $163). $XLK is solidly above $163 after today’s bounce, but where it ends the week will likely hinge on $NVDA, as the company releases earnings on Wednesday evening,” says Patrick Dunuwila, editor and co-founder of The Chart Report.

Random reads

“We are the champions.” Spain erupted in celebrations to welcome its Women’s World Cup victors. And England’s Lionesses got a 1,000 soccer-ball tribute.

No, Tropical Storm Hilary didn’t flood Dodger Stadium.

These thirsty beer-drinking thieves are raccoons.

Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

Listen to the Best New Ideas in Money podcast with MarketWatch financial columnist James Rogers and economist Stephanie Kelton.

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August 22, 2023

Microsoft proposes Ubisoft license to win U.K. approval for Activision Blizzard buyout

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Microsoft will change the terms of its Activision Blizzard buyout offer in a new effort to win approval from the U.K. competition regulator.

The regulator, the Competition and Markets Authority, said Microsoft
MSFT,
+1.71%
will now license Activision’s global cloud streaming to Ubisoft Entertainment, for any game available now or in the next 15 years. Ubisoft, in its own release, highlighted the ability to stream the popular Call of Duty franchise.

Financial terms were not released, but the regulator said Ubisoft will make a one-off payment and also agree a market-based wholesale pricing mechanism.

The license will be exclusive except in the European economic area. Ubisoft would have the ability to require Microsoft to provide versions of games on operating systems other than Windows, such as Linux.

Ubisoft shares
UBI,
+5.80%
jumped nearly 5% in opening Paris trade.

The regulator now says it’s inviting comments on the structure of the new offer. “This is not a green light. We will carefully and objectively assess the details of the restructured deal and its impact on competition, including in light of third-party comments,” said the regulator’s CEO, Sarah Cardell.

Microsoft last year agreed to buy Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion, or $95 per share. Activision stock
ATVI,
+0.28%
closed Monday at $90.72.

In a blog post, Microsoft Vice Chair Brad Smith said it anticipates the CMA review processes can be completed before the 90-day extension in its acquisition agreement with Activision Blizzard expires on Oct.18. He also said the deal with Ubisoft was carefully structured not to interfere with an existing deal struck with European regulators.

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August 21, 2023
Chip designer Arm files for long-awaited IPO, as smaller transistors send costs skyrocketing

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Arm Holdings Ltd. filed its long-awaited initial public offering late Monday, following last year’s failed bid by Nvidia Corp. to acquire the U.K.-based chip architecture company.

Arm has reportedly been seeking to raise $8 billion to $10 billion at a valuation of $60 billion to $70 billion, making its IPO the biggest of the year so far, and a number of large tech companies, including Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN,
+1.10%,
Intel Corp.
INTC,
+1.19%
and Nvidia
NVDA,
+8.47%,
are reportedly in the mix to be anchor investors.

In a late Monday filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Arm said it was offering to list its U.S. traded shares on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “ARM.”

Arm, which is owned by Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp.
9984,
+1.16%,
was the target of an unsuccessful $40 billion acquisition by Nvidia last year. After Nvidia scrubbed the deal and paid a $1.36 billion breakup charge following the U.S. Federal Trade Commission’s unanimous decision to block it, Nvidia disclosed it paid Arm $750 million for a 20-year license to its technology.

At the time of the breakup, chips sales had hit record highs in 2021, surging 26.2% to a record $555.9 billion, fueled by pandemic-triggered shortages. But the chip industry has since swung to a glut.

Arm listed Barclays, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Mizuho, BofA Securities, Citigroup, and Deutsche Bank Securities among the IPO’s underwriters.

Recent reports said SoftBank was in discussions to purchase the 25% stake in Arm that it does not outright own, which is held by its Vision Fund 1, ahead of the IPO.

Read from Feb. 2022: Wall Street’s reaction to death of Nvidia-Arm deal: No duh

Arm reported net income of $524 million, or 51 cents a share, on revenue of $2.68 billion for fiscal 2023, which ended March 31, compared with net income of $549 million, or 54 cents a share, on revenue of $2.7 billion, in fiscal 2022, and $388 million, or 38 cents a share, on revenue of $2.03 billion in fiscal 2021.

Arm uses an architecture that is different from the once-standard x86 one built by Intel in the early days of computing.

The company said it has shipped more than 250 billion Arm-based chips since its started in 1990 as a joint venture between Acorn Computers, Apple
AAPL,
+0.77%
and VLSI Technology. In fiscal 2023, Arm said it shipped 30.6 billion chips.

The company said it is going public as the “resources required to develop leading-edge products are significant and continue to increase exponentially as manufacturing process nodes shrink.” Transistors are expressed in scales of nanometers, with design costs running about $249 million for a 7-nanometer chip and about $725 million for a 2-nm chip.

“As the world moves increasingly towards AI- and [machine language]-enabled computing, Arm will be central to this transition,” the company said in the filing. “Arm CPUs already run AI and ML workloads in billions of devices, including smartphones, cameras, digital TVs, cars and cloud data centers.”

Arm said it is working with Alphabet Inc.
GOOG,
+0.64%

GOOGL,
+0.71%,
GM’s
GM,
+0.45%
Cruise, Mercedes-Benz
MBG,
+0.78%,
Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
+2.35%,
and Nvidia “to deploy Arm technology to run AI workloads.”

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August 21, 2023
Nvidia’s stock looks to snap losing streak as earnings optimism builds

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Nvidia Corp.’s earnings are drawing nearer, and yet another analyst is feeling upbeat heading into the upcoming report.

KeyBanc analyst John Vinh hiked his price target on Nvidia’s stock
NVDA,
+7.31%
to $620 from $550 Sunday, writing that despite tight supply, Nvidia could see strong AI demand and incremental capacity drive upside. Nvidia is scheduled to report fiscal second-quarter earnings after the close of markets on Wednesday.

“Given the pushout of [Advanced Micro Devices Inc’s]
AMD,
+2.31%
MI300X, we believe Nvidia has been able to source increased [chip on wafer on substrate] capacity at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
TSM,
+1.44%,
” Vinh said.

Read: Nvidia earnings to offer first true glimpse of the AI windfall

Shares of Nvidia rallied more than 5% to an intraday high of $456.56 in Monday trading, after having logged declines in each of the prior three sessions for a total loss of 1.5%. The shares are up more than 210% on a year-to-date basis, compared with a 39% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX,
a 14% rise in the S&P 500
SPX
and a 28% surge in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite
COMP
over the same span.

In addition, Nvidia plans a fall launch of its L40S GPU for small to medium-sized model training and inferencing with competitive performance versus its A100. That debut will be significant given tech restrictions related to China.

“Given L40S meets the performance threshold of export restriction and doesn’t require CoWoS packaging, combined with favorable pricing (est. $7K-$8K/GPU), we expect this lineup can incrementally fulfill some of the pent-up GPU demand in the near term, particularly in China,” said Vinh, who has an overweight rating on the stock.

Read: ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks are losing some of their shine, but their bonds are doing fine

Vinh raised his fiscal second-quarter revenue forecast to $12.7 billion and upped his earnings outlook to $2.49 a share. His prior expectations were for $11.1 billion and $2.05, respectively.

He also now forecasts fiscal third-quarter revenue of $14.8 billion and earnings per share of $3, up from prior projections of $12.4 billion and $2.34, respectively.

Read: Nvidia gets more good news from Big Tech, even as AI spending ‘may not lift all boats’

Of the 50 analysts who cover Nvidia, 43 had buy-grade ratings, six had hold ratings and one had a sell rating, along with an average price target of $432.99.

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August 21, 2023
Expectations for Nvidia’s earnings are massive. Will they even matter?

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When Nvidia Corp. last reported quarterly results, the chip maker forecast record revenue that was far above anything it had put up before. In response, investors sent the stock into orbit. On Wednesday, the latest round of earnings for the company will be a test of Nvidia’s status as the darling of the AI investment boom, and a test of whether it can deliver on its own lofty expectations.

The results will also be an update of tech demand overall, after businesses tightened their IT budgets following worries about an economic slowdown. But even with Nvidia’s
NVDA,
-0.10%
stock up more than 200% so far this year and expectations rising just as much, some analysts still say there’s room for shares to go higher, despite supply-side logjams.

Barclays said that Nvidia, whose chips analysts say will help power AI technology in the days to come, has “monopolized the economics of the AI boom, with no clear competitor close behind.” They added that “cloud capex budgets are being funneled towards AI.”

Signs that Nvidia might be falling behind on meeting chip demand have started to emerge. But as businesses rush to mark their territory, or potential territory, in the world of AI, Wedbush analysts have asked whether Nvidia’s results and forecast would even matter, as today’s production constraints turn into tomorrow’s sales.

“We don’t think NVDA results/guidance need to hit the high end of expectations,” Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson said in a research note on Friday.

“With demand for AI training having lifted substantially in the past quarter and with no other silicon supplier now capable of providing part volumes within an order of magnitude of NVDA’s output, we believe any unfilled demand will just be pushed into forward quarters fueling future sales and (earnings per share),” he continued.

Synovus analyst Daniel Morgan was also bullish on Nvidia’s business targeted toward data centers, as those facilities try to integrate generative AI and large language models. And within Nvidia’s gaming segment, he said the company’s new Ada Lovelace graphics-processing unit ecosystem “appears to be seeing a high level of success in retail.”

Still, the longer a stock runs higher, the harder it can fall. And Nvidia’s $1 trillion valuation, Morgan said, “is not for the faint-hearted.”

This week in earnings

Along with Nvidia, China search giant Baidu Inc.
BIDU,
-3.63%
reports, as the nation’s economic rebound sputters. And if more businesses are still cautious about cloud spending, or shifting spending to AI, the mood could filter through to results from Splunk Inc.
SPLK,
+0.35%
and Snowflake Inc.
SNOW,
+0.47%.
Peloton Interactive Inc.
PTON,
+1.59%,
Workday Inc.
WDAY,
+0.16%
and Marvell Technology Inc.
MRVL,
+0.05%
also report.

The call to put on your calendar

Zoom and offices: If even Zoom is calling some of its workers back to the office, what could that possibly mean for its results on Monday and the business of videoconferencing? Zoom Video Communications Inc.
ZM,
+1.42%
hasn’t been spared from the wave of tech-industry layoffs, and the company is trying to branch out from its pandemic-mainstay video-call platform, and harnessing its technology to handle phone calls and customer contact centers. Benchmark Research analyst Matthew Harrigan, in a note last week, said he still liked Zoom’s prospects, even though he wasn’t expecting “much instant gratification.” “We do expect AI to crystallize as a significant positive for Zoom even as it navigates through customer pushback on using customer data to train AI models off privacy concerns,” he said.

The numbers to watch

Sales, forecasts and inventories from retailers: Last week, Target Corp.
TGT,
+0.85%
reported what one analyst called “the definition of mixed results,” while another said the results amounted to “Recessionary trends without the recession.” Sales of essentials like groceries, as they have over the past year, helped Walmart Inc.’s
WMT,
+1.44%
results, but management said that consumers were still feeling the pain from inflation, which for some shoppers over the past year has left little room for much beyond the basics.

In the week ahead, we’ll get results whole bunch of retailers that don’t sell basics — like department stores Macy’s Inc.
M,
+0.53%
and Kohl’s Corp.
KSS,
+3.53%
; clothing chains Nordstrom Inc.
JWN,
+0.47%,
Gap Inc.
GPS,
+2.17%,
Urban Outfitters Inc.
URBN,
+2.00%
; shoe retailer Foot Locker Inc.
FL,
+0.60%
and beauty-products chain Ulta Beauty Inc.
ULTA,
+1.40%.
Those retailers will report as prices for some things start to come down, or at least not rise as fast, and as some economists overcome their recession fears. But remarks from executives could offer some sense of the impact from higher borrowing costs and the return of student loan payments, and how much they’ll be able to bank on the back-to-school season and wealthier — and more carefree — consumers.

Dollar-store Dollar Tree Inc.
DLTR,
+0.44%
will also report results, as low-income consumers suffer more under inflation and deal with the end of pandemic-era supplemental food assistance. Off-price retailer Burlington Stores Inc.
BURL,
+1.43%
reports as well, after Ross Stores Inc.
ROST,
+5.01%
Chief Executive Barbara Rentler said that while its low- and moderate-income shoppers were still hurting, shoppers overall “responded well to our improved value offerings throughout our stores.”

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August 20, 2023
Nvidia, Lowe’s, Dollar Tree, and More to Watch

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The majority of second-quarter earnings season is over, with a handful of major technology and retail names left to report this week. Economists will be focused on any news from an annual gathering of monetary policy thinkers and practitioners in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

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August 20, 2023
Palo Alto Networks earnings, outlook top Street expectations as SEC cyberattack reporting rule drives demand

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Palo Alto Networks Inc. shares rallied Friday after hours as the cybersecurity company topped expectations with its latest earnings, as well as with its forecasts for profit and billings, outlining that new reporting rules and AI-backed adversaries are driving adoption.

The stock
PANW,
+1.02%
was rallying more than 9% in the extended session, following a 1% gain in the regular session to close at $209.69.

Palo Alto Networks forecast first-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.15 to $1.17 a share on revenue of $1.82 billion to $1.85 billion and billings of $2.05 billion to $2.08 billion. Analysts were estimating $1.11 a share on revenue of $1.93 billion and billings of $2.04 billion for the first quarter.

For the year, the company expects $5.27 to $5.40 a share on revenue of $8.15 billion to $8.2 billion on billings of $10.9 billion to $11 billion. Analysts tracked by FactSet had been projecting $4.98 a share on revenue of $8.38 billion and billings of $10.81 billion for the year.

The company defines billings as “total revenue plus the change in total deferred revenue, net of acquired deferred revenue, during the period,” and is a metric used to account for subscriptions.

On the extended call with analysts, Nikesh Arora, the company’s chairman and chief executive, said that while strong fourth-quarter results did not come as a surprise, what did come as a surprise was the speed of adoption of its Cortex XSIAM AI-driven security platform, especially now that regulators are going to start requiring quick disclosures for material cyberattacks.

Palo Alto Networks reported fiscal fourth-quarter net income of $227.7 million, or 64 cents a share, compared with $3.3 million, or a penny a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted earnings, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses and other items, were $1.44 a share, compared with 80 cents a share in the year-ago period.

Revenue rose to $1.95 billion from $1.55 billion in the year-ago quarter, while billings rose 18% to $3.2 billion. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast $1.29 a share in adjusted earnings on revenue of $1.96 billion and billings of $3.18 billion.

The company launched XSIAM in October, and set a goal of booking more than $100 million in the first year. Arora said that in less than a year, XSIAM has already brought in $200 million, indicating that interest in applying AI to enhance security is “very high.”

In late July, the Securities and Exchange Commission adopted new rules requiring companies to disclose cyberattacks within four days of making the determination the intrusion has a material effect on results.

“Our customers have told us loud and clear that the legacy products powering their stacks are no longer working and they need to reduce by an order of magnitude,” Arora told analysts. “This becomes increasingly important with the new SEC rules detailing that all public companies will be required to report material breaches within four business days.”

On the call, Lee Klarich, Palo Alto Networks chief product officer, told analysts that it wasn’t long ago that the average time between an initial hack and stealing data was about 44 days. Now, that can happen in a matter of hours, which is a huge problem, Klarich said, noting that attackers are adopting AI to perform attacks.

“On average the industry is able to respond and remediate attacks in about six days: That doesn’t work,” Klarich said. “And even more challenging now with the SEC new rules of being able to disclose within four days, none of the math adds up.”

Five years ago, Palo Alto Networks was already in the middle of an M&A spree to transform itself from a firewall company to a multiproduct security platform, and showed no signs of slowing down until August 2021, when the company decided to report earnings without announcing an M&A deal, after having acquired 14 companies over the previous three-and-a-half years.

Nvidia Corp.
NVDA,
-0.10%,
which also has a huge stake in AI, reports results after the bell on Wednesday.

Palo Alto Networks is a new entrant to the S&P 500 index
SPX,
having got t en the nod in June. As of Friday’s close, Palo Alto Networks shares have gained 50.3% year to date, compared with a 12.4% gain on the ETFMG Prime Cyber Security exchange-traded fund
HACK,
a 13.8 % gain on the S&P 500, and a 27% rise on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite
COMP.

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August 18, 2023
‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks are losing some of their shine, but their bonds are doing fine

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The so-called Magnificent Seven grouping of technology stocks lost some of its luster this week after four of the seven moved into correction territory, meaning their stocks have fallen at least 10% from their recent peaks.

The corporate-bond market, in contrast, seems to like all seven names.

The group is made up of Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
-0.65%,
Apple Inc.
AAPL,
+0.28%,
Microsoft Corp.
MSFT,
-0.13%,
Nvidia Corp.
NVDA,
-0.10%,
Amazon. com Inc.
AMZN,
-0.57%,
Google parent Alphabet Inc.
GOOGL,
-1.89%

GOOG,
-1.80%
and Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
-1.70%.

One caveat: Tesla has no outstanding bonds. In the past, the electric-car maker issued convertible bonds, but they have all been converted into equity.

The group is credited with helping drive the stock market’s gains in the first half of the year, driven by excitement about artificial intelligence. But the rally has stalled in recent weeks as investors have fretted over the potential for U.S. interest-rate increases, surging Treasury yields and China worries, with property developer Evergrande filing for U.S. bankruptcy protection late Thursday.

On Thursday, Meta followed Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia into correction territory, as MarketWatch’s Emily Bary reported. Tesla, meanwhile, is in a bear market, meaning it’s down more than 20% from its recent peak.

Read: Have AI stocks like Nvidia reached bubble territory? Here’s what history can tell us.

The following series of charts from data-solutions provider BondCliQ Media Services show how many bonds each company has issued by maturity and how they have traded as the stocks have pulled back.

The first chart shows that Microsoft has by far the most bonds, mostly in the 30-year bucket. The software and cloud giant has more than $50 billion in long-term debt, according to its 2023 10-K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Outstanding Magnificent Seven debt by maturity bucket.

Source: BondCliQ Media Services

This chart shows trading volumes over the last 10 days, divided by trade type. The green shows customer buying, while the red is customer selling. The blue shows dealer-to-dealer flows. Microsoft, for example, has seen almost $1.3 billion in customer buying from dealers in the last 10 days and $960 million in customer sales to dealers.

Magnificent Seven debt trading volumes (last 10 days).

Source: BondCliQ Media Services

This chart shows that every name in the group has enjoyed better net buying in the last 10 days, with Microsoft leading the way.

Net customer flow of Magnificent Seven debt (last 10 days).

Source: BondCliQ Media Services

This chart shows spread performance over the last 50 days for an intermediate-term bond from each of the seven issuers. Most have tightened or remained steady over the period.

Historical spread performance of Magnificent Seven debt.

Source: BondCliQ Media Services

Read also: Red flags waving for tech stocks as AI bounce fades, China fears escalate

Apple’s stock entered correction Wednesday upon falling more than 10% from its July 31 peak of $196.45. The company sells mainly discretionary products, and right now “consumers are still being pinched” and thinking more carefully about where they spend their money, according to Matt Stucky, senior portfolio manager for equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management.

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August 18, 2023
Home Depot, Target, and More to Watch This Week

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Home Depot, Target, Cisco, Deere, Walmart, and More Stocks to Watch This Week

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August 13, 2023
Nvidia’s stock drops below key uptrend tracker, snapping longest streak above it in 6 years

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Nvidia Corp.’s stock chart now shows that the stunning uptrend investors in the semiconductor maker have enjoyed this year amid all the artificial-intelligence hype may have ended.

But as history suggests, after a long uptrend, rather than a new downtrend, investors may have to endure some whipsaw action within a relatively static trading range over the next several months before the uptrend resumes.

The stock
NVDA,
-0.72%
slumped 4.7% on Wednesday to close at $425.54, which was 10.4% below the July 18 record close of $474.94, following a downbeat earnings report from Super Micro Computer Inc.
SMCI,
+3.47%,
which counts Nvidia as a key supplier.

Many on Wall Street believe a correction is defined by a decline of at least 10% to up to 20% from a significant recent peak. A drop of 20% or more is thought of as a bear market.

But perhaps more important for chart followers, the stock closed below the widely followed 50-day moving average for the first time since Jan. 6, 2023. The 50-DMA had extended to $429.03 on Wednesday.

FactSet, MarketWatch

On Thursday, the stock bounced 0.5% in morning trading but held below the 50-DMA, which extended to $429.68, according to FactSet. Despite the recent correction, the stock was still up 192.6% year to date, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX
has climbed 43.7% and the S&P 500
SPX
has advanced 17.2%.

Read: Nvidia is ‘domination’ and could unlock $300 billion in AI revenue by 2027, analyst says.

The 50-DMA is used by many chart watchers as a short-term trend tracker. If the stock is above that line, it is viewed as being in an uptrend. The most time spent above that line, the stronger the uptrend.

Until Wednesday, Nvidia’s stock closed above the 50-DMA for 146 consecutive trading sessions, according to FactSet data, which is the second-longest stretch since it went public in January 1999.

The record stretch above the 50-DMA was 255 sessions, a streak that ended on Feb. 23, 2017, while the second-longest stretch of 143 sessions ended on Oct. 28, 2020.

After the stock snapped the super-50-DMA streak in 2020, it waffled around the line and was little changed for the next several months before resuming the uptrend with a big spike.

As an uptrend takes a several-month pause after the 50-DMA breaks, the 200-DMA becomes strong support.

FactSet, MarketWatch

As the chart above shows, after the 50-DMA broke, investors set their sights on the 200-DMA, which many view as a dividing line between longer-term uptrends and downtrends. In this case, despite a one-day dip below the 200-DMA in mid-March 2021, the line acted as strong support.

And after the record super-50-DMA streak, the stock seesawed around the line, while having a slightly negative bias for the next few months, before the uptrend resumed in force.

After the 50-DMA break, the 200-DMA was never threatened.

FactSet, MarketWatch

This time, the stock never really threatened the 200-DMA.

In the current technical situation, one of the downside levels to keep an eye on is the bear-market threshold of 20% below the July closing high, which comes in at $379.95. Another level to watch is the 200-DMA, which currently extends to $269.63 and has been rising by $1.65 a day over the past 10 days.

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August 10, 2023
Roblox Misses on Earnings. The Videogame Stock Sinks.

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Roblox Stock Falls Sharply. Blame the Wider Loss.

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August 9, 2023
Pence qualifies for first Republican debate: Here’s who else will be on stage.

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Former Vice President Mike Pence has become the eighth, and perhaps final, candidate to qualify for the first Republican presidential primary debate, setting up a possible prime-time clash with Donald Trump.

That face-off with Trump is not certain, however, because the former president has not yet confirmed whether he will take part in the event.

Several other GOP hopefuls, meanwhile, have also qualified for the debate. Here’s a look at details including who’ll be on stage and when and where the debate will be held.

When and where is the debate?

The first debate of the GOP primary season will be held Aug. 23 in Milwaukee, the same city that will host the party’s 2024 convention. The two-hour debate is scheduled to start at 9 p.m. Eastern time and is being hosted by Fox News.

Fox News parent Fox Corp.
FOX,
+5.56%

FOXA,
+5.59%
and News Corp
NWS,
+0.73%

NWSA,
+0.84%,
parent of MarketWatch publisher Dow Jones, share common ownership.

Besides Pence, who has qualified?

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and Trump have all met the debate requirements.

Other GOP hopefuls including former Rep. Will Hurd of Texas and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez have not yet made the cut.

Now read: Here are the Republicans running for president in 2024, before their first debate later this month

Also read: Mike Pence says inflation is 16%, but CPI is 3%. This is his logic.

What are the requirements for the Milwaukee debate?

For the first debate, a candidate needs to have at least 1% support in three high-quality national polls or in a mix of state and national polls and must have secured at least 40,000 unique donors.

Getting on stage for the second debate will be tougher. That contest, scheduled for Sept. 27 at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California, will require candidates to have at least 3% support in two national polls, or in one national poll as well as two polls from four of the early-voting states. Candidates must also have at least 50,000 unique donors, as the Associated Press has reported.

Now read: Republican Party raising qualification bar for second presidential primary debate

What has Trump said about attending the debate?

Playing his cards close to the vest, the former president is asking his supporters whether he should be in Milwaukee on Aug. 23. In an email on Saturday, Trump said he thinks it’s “sort of foolish” for him to attend, given his outsized polling lead.

“Hopefully, former President Trump has the courage to show up,” Pence’s communications adviser Devin O’Malley said in a statement on Tuesday.

Read next: Pence, Trump attorney offer conflicting claims over what Trump said ahead of Jan. 6

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August 8, 2023
Palantir announces $1 billion buyback program, stock rises after earnings

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Palantir Technologies Inc. matched expectations with its latest quarterly results Monday while announcing a new $1 billion buyback authorization.

The software company posted its third quarter in a row of GAAP profitability, recording second-quarter net income of $28 million, or 1 cent a share, whereas Palantir
PLTR,
-1.15%
racked up a net loss of $179.3 million, or 9 cents a share, in the year-earlier period. Analysts tracked by FactSet were modeling GAAP earnings per share of 1 cent.

Palantir logged adjusted earnings per share of 5 cents, in line with the FactSet consensus.

Revenue rose to $533 million from $473 million and also met the FactSet consensus. The company notched $232 million in commercial revenue, up 10% from a year before, along with $302 million of government revenue, up 15%.

After initially falling following the report, Palantir shares rose 2.6% in after-hours trading.

“We continue to see unprecedented demand,” Chief Revenue Officer Ryan Taylor told MarketWatch. That includes both “top-of-funnel” conversations with new customers and others expanding their use of Palantir software, as momentum builds for the company’s artificial-intelligence offerings.

Taylor added that Palantir’s U.S. government work has “never been stronger.”

See also: Palantir is ‘the Messi of AI,’ says analyst who thinks its stock can jump 45%

Palantir also announced that its board of directors has approved a stock-buyback program of up to $1 billion. The move comes as the company posted $285 million in adjusted free cash flow during the first half of the year and finished the second quarter with $3.1 billion in cash and equivalents on its balance sheet.

“Our cash flow, balance sheet and the authorization of a billion-dollar buyback show what we believe in for the future of this company,” Chief Financial Officer David Glazer told MarketWatch. The belief is that “AI is a massive opportunity.”

Added Chief Executive Alex Karp in a shareholder letter: “The scale of the opportunity that lies ahead has increased significantly in recent months. And we intend to capture it.”

He noted that the company is in talks with more than 300 additional enterprises about using Palantir’s AI platform, “all of which are searching for an effective and secure means of adapting the latest large language models for use on their internal systems and proprietary data.”

For the third quarter, Palantir expects $553 million to $557 million in revenue, along with GAAP profitability. Analysts tracked by FactSet were modeling $553 million,

Palantir also expects to report GAAP net income for its fourth quarter. It further models upwards of $2.212 billion in full-year revenue, while analysts were looking for $2.210 billion.

Shares of Palantir are up 180% so far this year.

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August 7, 2023
Palantir announces $1 billion buyback program, stock rises after earnings

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Palantir Technologies Inc. matched expectations with its latest quarterly results Monday while announcing a new $1 billion buyback authorization.

The software company posted its third quarter in a row of GAAP profitability, recording second-quarter net income of $28 million, or 1 cent a share, whereas Palantir
PLTR,
-1.15%
racked up a net loss of $179.3 million, or 9 cents a share, in the year-earlier period. Analysts tracked by FactSet were modeling GAAP earnings per share of 1 cent.

Palantir logged adjusted earnings per share of 5 cents, in line with the FactSet consensus.

Revenue rose to $533 million from $473 million and also met the FactSet consensus. The company notched $232 million in commercial revenue, up 10% from a year before, along with $302 million of government revenue, up 15%.

After initially falling following the report, Palantir shares rose 2.6% in after-hours trading.

“We continue to see unprecedented demand,” Chief Revenue Officer Ryan Taylor told MarketWatch. That includes both “top-of-funnel” conversations with new customers and others expanding their use of Palantir software, as momentum builds for the company’s artificial-intelligence offerings.

Taylor added that Palantir’s U.S. government work has “never been stronger.”

See also: Palantir is ‘the Messi of AI,’ says analyst who thinks its stock can jump 45%

Palantir also announced that its board of directors has approved a stock-buyback program of up to $1 billion. The move comes as the company posted $285 million in adjusted free cash flow during the first half of the year and finished the second quarter with $3.1 billion in cash and equivalents on its balance sheet.

“Our cash flow, balance sheet and the authorization of a billion-dollar buyback show what we believe in for the future of this company,” Chief Financial Officer David Glazer told MarketWatch. The belief is that “AI is a massive opportunity.”

Added Chief Executive Alex Karp in a shareholder letter: “The scale of the opportunity that lies ahead has increased significantly in recent months. And we intend to capture it.”

He noted that the company is in talks with more than 300 additional enterprises about using Palantir’s AI platform, “all of which are searching for an effective and secure means of adapting the latest large language models for use on their internal systems and proprietary data.”

For the third quarter, Palantir expects $553 million to $557 million in revenue, along with GAAP profitability. Analysts tracked by FactSet were modeling $553 million,

Palantir also expects to report GAAP net income for its fourth quarter. It further models upwards of $2.212 billion in full-year revenue, while analysts were looking for $2.210 billion.

Shares of Palantir are up 180% so far this year.

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August 7, 2023
Shopify makes progress on free cash flow, but stock moves lower after earnings

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Shopify Inc. easily topped adjusted profit expectations for its latest quarter, though shares of the e-commerce marketplace were headed lower in Wednesday’s after-hours action.

The e-commerce company reported a comprehensive loss of $1.30 billion, or $1.02 a share, whereas it logged a loss of $1.21 billion, or 95 cents a share, in the year-earlier period.

On an adjusted basis, Shopify
SHOP,
-7.44%
earned 14 cents a share, whereas analysts tracked by FactSet were anticipating 6 cents a share.

Don’t miss: Mastercard earnings bring latest signal of healthy spending

Revenue jumped to $1.69 billion from $1.30 billion a year prior, while the FactSet consensus was for $1.63 billion.

Gross merchandise volume, or the dollar value of orders facilitated through Shopify’s platform, came in at $53.5 billion. Analysts had been modeling $55.0 billion. The company also posted $31.7 billion in gross payments volume.

See also: Apple appears to be making rapid inroads in buy-now-pay-later

For the third quarter, Shopify anticipates a revenue growth percentage in the low-20s on a year-over-year basis. The company also expects free cash flow in the third quarter to exceed the first-half total.

Shopify generated $97 million in free cash flow during the second quarter, beating the $27 million FactSet consensus and bringing its first-half haul to $183 million. Analysts were expecting $96 million in free cash flow for the third quarter.

“We’re not just shipping products faster, but we are also expanding our global merchant base, all while improving our ability to generate greater free cash flow,” President Harley Finkelstein said in a release.

More from MarketWatch: PayPal’s stock falls as earnings beat, but a margin metric misses

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August 2, 2023
Palantir Stock Spikes After Analyst Says to Buy ‘The Messi of AI’

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Palantir Technologies

shares were getting a major boost Friday after Wedbush technology analyst Dan Ives launched coverage of the AI software company with an Outperform rating, setting a target price of $25. Ives contends Palantir is well-positioned to take market share in both the commercial and government analytics software markets.

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July 28, 2023
ServiceNow Posts Strong Earnings and Adds New AI Tools. But the Stock Is Lower.
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https://www.barrons.com/articles/servicenow-earnings-stock-price-ef3bea69
Technology

Earnings Report

Updated July 26, 2023 5:00 pm ET / Original July 26, 2023 4:13 pm ET

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ServiceNow

posted better-than-expected results for its latest quarter and lifted its full-year outlook.
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July 26, 2023
Alphabet earnings push stock up 6%; CFO Ruth Porat to become president, chief investment officer

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Google parent Alphabet Inc.’s stock jumped 6% in after-hours trading Tuesday after the company beat estimates on the top and bottom line, and announced the transition of Chief Financial Officer Ruth Porat to president and chief investment officer in September.

Fueled by strong advertising sales, Alphabet
GOOGL,
+0.56%

GOOG,
+0.75%
racked up fiscal second-quarter net income of $18.4 billion, or $1.44 a share, compared with net income of $16 billion, or $1.21 a share, in the same quarter a year ago.

Total revenue was $74.6 billion, compared with $69.7 billion a year ago. Sales minus traffic-acquisition costs were $62.06 billion, vs. $57.5 billion last year.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet had expected on average net earnings of $1.34 a share on revenue of $72.85 billion and ex-TAC revenue of $60.25 billion.

“There’s exciting momentum across our products and the company, which drove strong results this quarter,” Alphabet Chief Executive Sundar Pichai said in a statement. “Our continued leadership in AI and our excellence in engineering
and innovation are driving the next evolution of Search, and improving all our services.”

During a conference call Tuesday afternoon, he highlighted the intertwining of advertising and Alphabet’s strides in generative AI. He added the company continues to consolidate and align operations to streamline spending.

Shares of Alphabet have advanced 39% so far this year largely on the strength of generative AI and its potential. The broader S&P 500 index
SPX,
+0.28%
is up 19%. Alphabet’s stock inched up 0.6% to $122.21 in the regular session Tuesday.

Google’s total advertising sales improved to $58.14 billion from $56.3 billion a year ago, and edged analysts’ average expectations of $57.45 billion. Google Cloud hauled in $8 billion, compared with $6.3 billion last year. YouTube ad sales rebounded to $7.7 billion from $7.34 billion a year ago.

“The proverbial floodgates aren’t opening yet but clients are starting to see pockets of opportunity and are willing to invest for a direct return,” Aaron Levy, vice president of paid search at Tinuiti, said in an email.

Porat, who has played an essential role in Google’s advertising success since she became CFO in 2015, will start her new role on Sept. 1. She will be responsible for Alphabet’s investments in its Other Bets portfolio, and the company’s investments in countries and communities around the world. Porat will continue to report to Pichai.

“We see technology can make so much of a difference in people’s lives… and in economic growth globally,” Porat said during the conference call late Tuesday.

The monetization of AI continues to be an obsession of investors and Wall Street. Microsoft Corp.’s
MSFT,
+1.70%
AI version, Bing, hit the market first, but Google’s competing entry, Bard, is making headway, according to analysts. Alphabet is ramping up AI initiatives to improve operational efficiency and productivity.

When asked on the call about AI monetization, Pichai said the technology expands the company’s total addressable market, brings in potential new customers, deepens the versatility of its product portfolio, and differentiates core products such as cybersecurity.

AI’s importance was underscored by a Wall Street Journal report on Tuesday that Google co-founder Sergey Brin has been spotted at the company’s Mountain View, Calif., headquarters in recent weeks working with AI researchers on a large-scale project. Brin has been largely out of sight after stepping down from an executive role at parent company Alphabet in 2019.

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July 25, 2023
Microsoft earnings top estimates, but stock falls as execs detail AI’s costs

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Microsoft Corp. easily topped profit and revenue expectations for its latest quarter, though its shares were moving more than 3% lower in extended trading Tuesday after the company discussed the year ahead.

The technology giant has won favor on Wall Street for its positioning in the artificial-intelligence revolution, though Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood said on Tuesday’s earnings call that “even with strong demand and a leadership position,” Microsoft’s
MSFT,
+1.70%
“growth from our AI services will be gradual.” Microsoft’s AI for its Azure cloud-computing business needs to ramp, and the company is working toward the general availability of its Copilot productivity product.

Microsoft’s AI revenue impacts will thus be weighted toward the second half of the new fiscal year that just began, she continued. Meanwhile, she expects that Microsoft’s capital expenditures will rise sequentially each quarter “as we scale to meet demand signals.”

Hood’s commentary came as Microsoft posted fiscal fourth-quarter results Tuesday afternoon that showed a 15% jump in revenue for the company’s cloud-computing segment, which it calls Intelligent Cloud. Revenue for the segment came in at $24.0 billion, while analysts had been anticipating $23.8 billion. The growth rate was 17% on a currency-neutral basis.

The company said revenue for Azure and other cloud services was up 26%, or 27% in constant currency. Microsoft’s forecast had been for 26% to 27% in constant-currency Azure sales growth, while the company posted 31% constant-currency growth on the metric in the March period. The FactSet consensus was for 27% growth in constant currency.

“While we believe the Street was hoping for Azure growth more in the ~28% range, we believe the consumption part of the business held up well,” Evercore ISI analyst Kirk Materne said in a note to clients.

For the September quarter, Microsoft anticipates 25% to 26% in constant-currency Azure growth.

The cloud migration is still in the “early innings,” Chief Executive Satya Nadella said on the call, while also highlighting a “new world of AI driving a set of new workloads.”

“We think of that, again, being pretty expansive from a TAM [total addressable market] opportunity and we’ll play it out,” he continued, though the company is also up against the “law of large numbers” given the massive scale of its cloud business.

The company generated fiscal fourth-quarter net income of $20.1 billion, or $2.69 a share, compared with $16.7 billion, or $2.23 a share, in the year-earlier period. Analysts tracked by FactSet were modeling $2.55 a share.

Overall revenue for Microsoft climbed to $56.2 billion from $51.9 billion, whereas analysts had been expecting $55.5 billion.

See also: Microsoft bulls are excited as company reveals pricing for AI offering

Microsoft logged $18.3 billion in revenue for its productivity and business processes unit, up 10% from a year before, or up 12% in constant currency. That part of the business includes LinkedIn and both commercial and consumer versions of Office. Analysts had been looking for $18.1 billion.

Revenue for the More Personal Computing segment, which includes Windows and Xbox content and services, dropped 4% to $13.9 billion and was off 3% on a constant-currency basis. The FactSet consensus was for $13.6 billion.

Nadella, meanwhile, expressed optimism about the eventual opportunities brought upon by Microsoft’s Copilot offerings.

“I do think people are going to look at how can they complement their [operating-expense] spend with essentially these Copilots in order to drive more efficiency and, quite frankly, even reduce the burden and drudgery of work on their OpEx and their people and so on,” he said.

Evercore’s Materne called the overall results “solid” amid “a lot of macro headwinds.” Microsoft’s investment story “gets stronger in [the second half of the calendar year] as some optical headwinds reverse and [comparisons] soften, and Microsoft’s position in the enterprise market continues to get stronger as customers look to consolidate spending,” he wrote.

Read: Amazon finally is nearing a bottom on this key measure, analyst says

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July 25, 2023