ReportWire

Tag: Computing

  • No More Launchers For PC Games, Thank You!

    No More Launchers For PC Games, Thank You!

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    Image: Kerbal Space Program | Kotaku

    The was once a golden age of PC gaming where you could open up Steam (or even just launch an executable yourself!), boot up a game and the next thing you would see would be the game itself. For many big (and small) releases those days are now long gone, replaced by an era of launchers that are, at best, a nuisance. Now, they’re even infecting indie projects like Kerbal Space Program.

    If you want to play a Rockstar game on PC you need to install the company’s own launcher, which boots before you play the game you clicked to play, then makes you click another play button so you can finally play it. And that’s how it works when it’s working; when it’s not you simply can’t play any Rockstar games that you own, sorry!

    Want to play a Total War game? You get a launcher. Paradox game? A launcher. Blizzard game? Battle.net. Fortnite? Epic Games Store. An EA game? Origin. Ubisoft? Hey, guess what, you gotta launch Ubisoft Connect, a launcher. Even Kalypso has a launcher.

    Note that there are some bright spots here; Bethesda killed its own launcher off earlier this year and just let Steam handle everything, and some launchers have practical benefits like letting you manage your mods (Paradox) or jump straight into a save game (Creative Assembly).

    While publishers have clear reasons to dump these things on us (from DRM to $$$), these launchers are wildly unpopular among players, in part because of the connectivity hassles (see Rockstar’s example above), but mostly because they’re just a pain in the ass, a speed bump on your way to the place you actually want to go.

    Things have hit a new level of absurdity this week, though, with news that Kerbal Space Program—yes, the one with the little aliens building rockets—now has its own launcher for the Steam version of the game, announced as “a resource for news and updates about KSP & KSP 2 Early Access.

    Given the profile of the game, the fact it’s already launching through Steam and its reputation as a weird little indie sandbox, fan reaction has been understandably negative. Folks are venting on Steam, while on the game’s Reddit workarounds have already been found to disable the launcher entirely.

    Publishers, please, we’re begging you. This sucks. As the best comment in that Steam discussion says, “GAMES ON STEAM DO NOT NEED A LAUNCHER. STEAM IS THE LAUNCHER.

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    Luke Plunkett

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  • The Scariest Things That Happened In Gaming In 2022

    The Scariest Things That Happened In Gaming In 2022

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    A fall guy, a crew mate(?), and Malenia stand near a "2022," spooky ghosts, and Gotham Knights for PS5.

    Image: Warner Bros. / Devolver Digital / Bandai Namco / Innersloth / Kotaku / Mia Stendal / Bibadash (Shutterstock)

    On an average day, my friends might ask me how my job is going. I’ll smile, tell them “It’s going great,” and then launch into a story about one of the most fucked up things they’ve ever heard of. And now I get to give the recap to you.

    Spooky season is upon us, but the chronically online gamers at Kotaku know that terrifying shit is happening in our space all the time. It’s not just the games that are occasionally horrifying—it’s also how the industry grinds humans into dust, how giant corporations are increasingly looking to put the screws to the average consumer, and how abuse of power comes as no surprise.

    Some of the spookiest gaming news stories this year are sad. Some of them are funny. Others will make you want to pull your hair out over the general state of the world. But hey, me too! Let’s be scared and [some other unidentifiable emotion] together!

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    Sisi Jiang

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  • Amazon stock sinks after holiday forecast and cloud growth, profit disappoint; $150 billion in market cap at risk

    Amazon stock sinks after holiday forecast and cloud growth, profit disappoint; $150 billion in market cap at risk

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    Amazon.com Inc. predicted Thursday that holiday sales and profit would come in well lower than analysts expected as cloud growth slowed and Amazon Web Services profit missed expectations by nearly $1 billion, sending shares south in after-hours trading.

    Amazon
    AMZN,
    -4.06%

    executives guided for fourth-quarter operating profit of break-even to $4 billion and holiday sales of $140 billion to $148 billion, while analysts on average were expecting operating income of $5.05 billion on revenue of $155.09 billion, according to FactSet. AWS sales of $20.54 billion grew 27.5% from the year before, the lowest growth rate for the pioneering cloud-computing product in records dating back to the beginning of 2014, and lower than analysts’ average estimate of $21.2 billion; AWS operating income of $5.4 billion handily missed analysts’ average estimate of $6.37 billion, according to FactSet.

    “As the third quarter progressed, we saw moderating sales growth across many of our businesses, as well as increased foreign-currency headwinds … and we expect these impacts to persist throughout the fourth quarter,” Chief Financial Officer Brian Olsavsky said in a conference call Thursday afternoon. “As we have done in similar times in our history we are also taking action to tighten our belt, including pausing hiring in certain businesses and winding down products and services where we believe our resources are better spent elsewhere.”

    Shares dove as much as 20% in after-hours trading immediately following the release of the results, after closing with a 4.1% decline at $110.96, but ended the extended trading period down 13%. After-hours prices could chop roughly $150 billion from Amazon’s market capitalization and send it lower than $1 trillion for the first time since April 2020 if they were to persist through Friday’s regular trading session, according to FactSet.

    Amazon reported its first quarterly profit of the year for the third quarter, and easily beat analysts’ expectations for the back-to-school period that included the company’s first Prime Day of the year, but earnings still declined from last year. Executives reported third-quarter profit of $2.87 billion, or 28 cents a share, down from 31 cents a share in the year-ago quarter after adjusting for Amazon’s 20-to-1 stock split.

    Revenue grew to $127.1 billion from $110.8 billion, in the middle of executives’ forecast for $125 billion to $130 billion but slightly missing analysts’ expectations; executives said revenue would have been $5 billion higher without the effects of the strengthening dollar. Analysts on average expected earnings of 22 cents a share on sales of $127.39 billion, according to FactSet.

    “There is obviously a lot happening in the macroeconomic environment, and we’ll balance our investments to be more streamlined without compromising our key long-term, strategic bets,” Chief Executive Andy Jassy said in a statement. “What won’t change is our maniacal focus on the customer experience, and we feel confident that we’re ready to deliver a great experience for customers this holiday shopping season.”

    Amazon had reported quarterly losses through the first half of the year, largely because of a rapid post-IPO decline in one of its investments, Rivian Automotive Inc.
    RIVN,
    +0.17%
    .
    But the Seattle-based company has also been looking to cut costs after spending wildly during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic to keep up with spiking demand for its online store and Amazon Web Services cloud-computing products.

    Amazon’s stock has suffered as it faces comparisons to the headier days of last year, and will do so again in the holiday season, when it faces a comparison with a nearly $12 billion profit from its Rivian investment, which has declined more than 50% from its IPO price and stands at roughly one-fifth its peak post-IPO price.

    There were thoughts that Amazon would be cautious with its holiday forecast, as its attempts to cut costs run into the need to keep its giant logistics operation running smoothly. The company is looking to hire 150,000 workers to get through the holiday season, and recently announced increased pay for fulfillment workers.

    “On 4Q consensus estimates, we believe AMZN will likely err on the side of being more conservative, given the uncertain consumer spend environment,” MKM Partners Managing Director Rohit Kulkarni wrote in a note. “We believe recently announced wage hike, higher near-term content costs amortization (NFL & Lord Of Rings), and potentially greater merchandise discounting might weigh on 4Q Op Margins.”

    Amazon’s e-commerce operations were boosted in the third quarter by the company’s annual Prime Day event in July, and the company tried to replicate the event in October, but analysts saw the second Prime Day as less successful and potentially a sign of weakness.

    “We see Amazon’s decision to hold two Prime Day sales in one calendar year as a red flag for weak e-commerce sales; consistent with retailers, in general, holding more sales when their sales are under pressure,” D.A. Davidson analyst Tom Forte wrote in a preview of Amazon’s report.

    In the third quarter — with back-to-school sales and the first Prime Day event — quarterly retail sales in North America hit $78.84 billion, while overseas revenue totaled $27.72 billion. Analysts on average were expecting $77.24 billion and $29 billion respectively, according to FactSet. Sales in both locations were unprofitable from an operating perspective for the fourth consecutive quarter, losing a total of $2.88 billion.

    Amazon’s profit largely comes from the fat margins of its AWS cloud-computing offering, but there have been concerns about growth leveling off for cloud after rival Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    -1.98%

    reported a deceleration earlier this week and guided for a further decline in growth in the fourth quarter. AWS did provide enough profit in the third quarter to overcome the losses in e-commerce, but the result was the lowest quarterly operating income for Amazon overall since the first quarter of 2018, according to FactSet records.

    Opinion: The cloud boom is coming back to Earth, and that could be scary for tech stocks

    “The ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties have seen an uptick in AWS customers focused on controlling costs and we are proactively working to help customers cost-optimize just as we have done throughout our history, especially in periods of economic uncertainty,” Olsavsky said in Thursday’s conference call, before adding that revenue growth dipped to the mid-20s late in the period from an overall rate of 27.5% for the quarter.

    “So carry that forecast to the fourth quarter, we are not sure how it’s going to play out, but that’s generally our assumption,” he said, suggesting that Amazon expects the AWS revenue-growth rate to decline again in the fourth quarter.

    Amazon’s other higher-margin business is advertising, which has grown strongly in recent years as companies seeking to sell products on Amazon pay the company to list their products higher when consumers search for them on the e-commerce platform. Amazon reported third-quarter advertising revenue of $9.55 billion, up from $7.61 billion a year ago and topping the average analysts estimate of $9.48 billion.

    The results seemed to spread fears to other e-commerce companies and cloud-focused companies. Wayfair Inc.
    W,
    +0.37%
    ,
    eBay Inc.
    EBAY,
    +0.71%

    and Etsy Inc.
    ETSY,
    -0.48%

    shares all fell roughly 5% or more in after-hours trading, as did cloud-software providers Snowflake Inc.
    SNOW,
    -0.20%
    ,
    MongoDB Inc.
    MDB,
    -0.35%

    and Datadog Inc.
    DDOG,
    +0.81%

    Microsoft’s stock declined about 1.5%.

    Amazon stock has fallen 33.5% so far this year, as the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    -0.61%

    has dropped 19.6%.

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  • Meta spending slams Facebook stock, but here are the chip stocks that are benefiting

    Meta spending slams Facebook stock, but here are the chip stocks that are benefiting

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    Data-center stocks buoyed an otherwise down chip sector Thursday as shares of Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. cratered on torn-in-half profits and a hike in capital spending to fuel Mark Zuckerberg’s metaverse ambitions, prompting one analyst to ask if server chips can only go up now.

    As shares of Meta dropped as much as 25% Thursday, shares of Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +2.31%

    surged as much as 7%, compared with less than 1% declines on the PHLX Semiconductor Index
    SOX,
    -1.51%

    and S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    -0.69%
    .

    Late Wednesday, Meta reported that quarterly profits fell by more than 50% and added that it expects 2022 capital expenditure of $32 billion to $33 billion, compared with a previous range of $30 billion to $34 billion. In 2023, the company said, it expects capital expenditure in the range of $34 billion to $39 billion, “driven by our investments in data centers, servers, and network infrastructure.”

    Meta
    META,
    -24.64%

    noted that an “increase in AI capacity is driving substantially all of our capital expenditure growth in 2023.”

    Soon after Meta made that announcement, Jefferies analyst Mark Lipacis said in a note that “positive capex commentary from Alphabet
    GOOGL,
    -2.80%
    ,
    Microsoft
    MSFT,
    -2.03%

    and Meta” was all a positive for data-center equipment providers Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
    AMD,
    -1.92%
    ,
    Broadcom Inc.
    AVGO,
    -1.26%

    and Marvell Technology Inc.
    MRVL,
    +3.61%
    .
    Lipacis has buy ratings on all four stocks.

    Shares of AMD rallied as much as 5%, Broadcom shares rose as much as 2% and Marvell shares surged as much as 10% Thursday. Intel Corp.
    INTC,
    -3.69%

    shares were up a little more than 1% at one point ahead of its earnings report, scheduled for after the close Thursday.

    Opinion: Facebook and Google grew into tech titans by ignoring Wall Street. Now it could lead to their downfall

    Jefferies noted that Meta’s capital expenditure for 2023 alone charts a 12% year-over-year hike at midpoint, compared with the Wall Street consensus of $29 billion, or a 5% year-over-year decline.

    “We sense investor caution around Nvidia’s datacenter business this quarter, but we expect all four [equipment providers] to discuss positive datacenter trends this earnings season,” Lipacis said, noting he was a buyer of Nvidia stock “in front of its earnings call.”

    From the perspective of the chip industry — which has gone from a two-year global chip shortage to a sudden glut in a matter of months as PC and consumer-electronics demand has dropped sharply, causing chip fabricators to pump the brakes on investments in new capacity — Lipacis questioned whether the glut will ever reach data-center sales, as many have feared.

    “The most common comment we hear from investors on Nvidia is ‘the Datacenter Shoe has to Drop,’” Lipacis said, noting that his data shows that the shoe has already dropped and an uptick is on the horizon.

    Lipacis explained that data-center sales from Nvidia, AMD and Intel combined declined to $10.5 billion in the second quarter from $12 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021 and that he is modeling another $10.5 billion quarter in the third.

    “This looks consistent with the pattern since 2017 of 4-to-5 qtrs above trendline, followed by 2-to-3 qtrs of below trendline ‘digestion,’ i.e., it looks like the datacenter shoe has already dropped,” Lipacis said.

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  • Overwatch 2 Players Are Getting Hit With Server Errors Following Latest Update

    Overwatch 2 Players Are Getting Hit With Server Errors Following Latest Update

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    Sigma reaches out toward a login error screen.

    I’m sorry, player, I’m afraid I can’t let you play this game.
    Image: Blizzard / Kotaku

    Right now there’s a Halloween event running for Overwatch 2, but a fair amount of players are facing a different kind of terror: A previously known server error with the code “LC-208” appears to be disproportiantely hitting players after the most recent update.

    While server and connection errors often happen for online games, “Overwatch 2 Console Error LC-208” is currently plaguing a large number of players on console, preventing them from connecting to servers and playing the game. Blizzard has its own steps for working around this issue, as it’s been around since the launch of the game, though not in such numbers. Until Blizzard issues a broader statement or additional fix, players have been discovering quirky, unexplainable ways to fix it, involving signing in on PC first or loading into the game’s firing range and quitting before hitting matchmaking, though these aren’t necessarily bullet-proof prescriptions.

    Kotaku has reached out to Blizzard for comment but didn’t hear back prior to publication.

    Since yesterday’s Halloween update, search results on Twitter, Reddit, and even Overwatch 2’s own forums have started turning up countless reports of players not being able to enter the game. The problem, given the error code’s info, seems to hit console players only. Anecdotally it seems to be hitting PS4 and PS5 players the most, though many Xbox players are reportedly facing the error as well.

    A main thread for the LC-208 issue in Blizzard’s official forums, with nearly 300 replies and over 2,500 views, starts with “LC-208’d after the Halloween event update. Never had an issue with this before. Can’t get into the game.” “I tried everything to fix the Login Error LC-208” Twitter user Phish (no, not the band) says. “I have signed out of my battle net account, restarted my [router], restarted my game, used a different wireless connection, tried using ethernet, and redownloaded the game and I am still getting LC-208.”

    They’re not alone, as countless tweets and Reddit threads read similarly. Some have found non-optimal workarounds. Twitter user hatsune niiku reports bypassing the LC-208 error on console by entering the game’s firing range on PC, closing the game, and then logging in on console. “Worked for me just now,” they say.

    Sadly, not everyone has a gaming PC at the ready to try this out, nor is it an actual fix for the problem. Blizzard recommends the following steps for solving LC-208 error. Hopefully it will work out for you:

    If your console account is linked with your Battle.net account, you need to have a BattleTag. If you have a BattleTag but your accounts are not linked, follow the connection steps linked below to resolve the error.

    Note: If your Battle.net account is connected to your console account, disconnecting it and reconnecting can resolve the error.

    1. Check your network configuration to find any issues with your firewall, router, or port settings.

    2. Reset your network devices to make sure your router hasn’t become flooded with data.

    3. If you’re using a wireless connection, optimize your internet connection to rule out a connection issue.

    4. Run your console’s built-in connection test (Playstation 4) (Xbox One) (Nintendo Switch).

    5. Use your console’s internet browser to run a Looking Glass test. This will help determine if the problem is between your console and our servers.

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    Claire Jackson

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  • Microsoft stock slammed by cloud-growth fears, taking Amazon down with it

    Microsoft stock slammed by cloud-growth fears, taking Amazon down with it

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    Microsoft Corp. shares fell more than 6% in after-hours trading Tuesday as the company’s cloud-computing growth hit a sudden deceleration and executives guided for holiday-season revenue to come in more than $2 billion lower than expectations.

    The Azure cloud-computing business has grown into the largest and most important business for Microsoft
    MSFT,
    +1.38%
    ,
    and there have been concerns about cloud growth as the U.S. faces a potential recession for the first time since the technology became ubiquitous. Microsoft executives said that Azure grew by 35% in their fiscal first quarter, a marked slowdown from Azure’s 40% growth rate in the previous quarter, as well as the 50% growth shown in the same quarter last year; analysts on average were expecting 36.5% growth, according to FactSet.

    Opinion: The cloud boom is coming back to Earth, and that could be scary for tech stocks

    In the current quarter, Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood suggested a similar sequential decline is in store for Azure, saying percentage growth should decline by five points on a constant-currency basis. Hood also suggested that more cost cuts could be coming to Microsoft, after the company confirmed layoffs of fewer than 1,000 employees earlier this month.

    “While we continue to help our customers do more with less, we will do the same internally,” she said. “And you should expect to see our operating-expense growth moderate materially through the year while we focus on growing productivity of the significant head-count investments we’ve made over the last year.”

    Microsoft shares slid to declines of more than 6% in after-hours trading following Hood’s forecast, which was provided in a conference call. Shares closed with a 1.4% increase at $250.66.

    Concerns about cloud growth immediately spread to Azure’s biggest competitor, Amazon Web Services, as Amazon.com Inc. stock
    AMZN,
    +0.65%

    fell more than 4% in after-hours trading.

    Microsoft reported fiscal first-quarter earnings of $17.56 billion, or $2.35 a share, down from $2.71 a share in the same quarter a year ago, when the tech giant disclosed a 44 cent-per-share tax benefit. Revenue increased to $50.1 billion from $45.32 billion a year ago. Analysts on average were expecting earnings of $2.31 a share on sales of $49.66 billion, according to FactSet.

    For the fiscal second quarter, Hood guided for revenue of $52.35 billion to $53.35 billion, while analysts on average were expecting sales of $56.16 billion, according to FactSet. Hood said that “Intelligent Cloud” revenue should land from $21.25 billion to $21.55 billion, while analysts on average were projecting $21.82 billion heading into the print; Microsoft’s other revenue-segment forecasts were even further off analysts’ average expectations.

    Microsoft has also suffered from the strengthening dollar, as well as a sharp downturn in personal-computer sales, which spiked during the pandemic but are now showing record regression.

    For more: The pandemic PC boom is over, but its legacy will live on

    Microsoft reported PC revenue of $13.3 billion for the quarter, roughly flat from $13.31 billion a year before and beating the average analyst estimate of $13.12 billion, according to FactSet. While PCs have long been what consumers largely know Microsoft for, their importance to the company’s financials has declined in recent years as cloud computing has grown in importance.

    “Historically, Windows was a very large driver of Microsoft revenue and, given its strong margins, a disproportionate driver of earnings,” Bernstein analysts wrote in a preview of the report, while maintaining an “overweight” rating. “Over time other businesses, especially Microsoft’s commercial Cloud, have grown fast while the Windows business has grown quite slower, decreasing the relative impact of Windows.”

    The “Intelligent Cloud” segment reported first-quarter revenue of $20.3 billion, up from $16.96 billion a year ago but slightly lower than the average analyst estimate tracked by FactSet of $20.46 billion. Azure’s 35% growth was the slowest Microsoft has reported in records dating back through the prior two fiscal years; Microsoft only reports percentage growth for its Azure cloud-computing product, even as main rivals Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +0.65%

    and Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL,
    +1.91%

    GOOG,
    +1.90%

    report revenue and profit margin for their cloud-computing products.

    Microsoft’s other revenue segment, “Productivity and Business Processes,” reported revenue of $16.5 billion, up from $15.04 billion a year ago and higher than the average analyst estimate of $16.13 billion, according to FactSet. That segment includes Microsoft’s core cloud-software properties such as its Office suite of products — which is being officially renamed Microsoft 365 — as well as LinkedIn and some other properties.

    Microsoft stock has declined 25.5% so far this year, as the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +1.63%

    has dropped 20.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +1.07%

    — which counts Microsoft as one of its 30 components — has declined 13.3%.

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  • Microsoft stock slips as Azure growth slows and cloud sales miss projections

    Microsoft stock slips as Azure growth slows and cloud sales miss projections

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    Microsoft Corp. shares slipped in after-hours trading Tuesday despite an earnings beat, as the company’s cloud-computing revenue came in lower than expected and its core cloud product, Azure, grew at a slower rate than projections.

    Microsoft’s
    MSFT,
    +1.38%

    cloud-computing business has grown into the largest and most important business for the company, especially for investors who like Azure’s high margins and strong growth. There have been concerns about cloud growth as the U.S. faces its first possible recession since the technology became ubiquitous, and Azure’s growth in Tuesday’s report was the slowest Microsoft has reported in the past two years, while Microsoft’s cloud division was the only segment to come in lower than estimates.

    The “Intelligent Cloud” segment reported first-quarter revenue of $20.3 billion, up from $16.96 billion a year ago but slightly lower than the average analyst estimate tracked by FactSet of $20.46 billion. Microsoft said that Azure grew by 35%, while analysts on average were expecting 36.5% growth, according to FactSet.

    Opinion: The cloud boom is coming back to Earth, and that could be scary for tech stocks

    That is a marked slowdown from Azure’s 40% growth rate in the previous quarter, as well as the 50% growth shown in the same quarter last year. Microsoft only reports percentage growth for its core cloud-computing product, even as main rivals Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +0.65%

    and Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL,
    +1.91%

    GOOG,
    +1.90%

    report revenue and profit margin for their cloud-computing products.

    Overall, Microsoft
    MSFT,
    +1.38%

    reported fiscal first-quarter earnings of $17.56 billion, or $2.35 a share, down from $2.71 a share in the same quarter a year ago, when Microsoft disclosed a 44 cent-per-share tax benefit. Revenue increased to $50.1 billion from $45.32 billion a year ago. Analysts on average were expecting earnings of $2.31 a share on sales of $49.66 billion, according to FactSet.

    Microsoft shares fell between 1% and 2% in after-hours trading following the release of the results, after closing with a 1.4% increase at $250.66. Microsoft stock tends to react most strongly in after-hours trading following earnings reports after executives share their forecast for the current quarter in their conference call, which is scheduled to begin at 5:30 p.m. Eastern.

    Microsoft has started to show some effects of a weakening macroeconomic climate, confirming layoffs of fewer than 1,000 employees earlier this month. Microsoft has suffered from the strengthening dollar, as well as a sharp downturn in personal-computer sales, which spiked during the pandemic but are now showing record regression.

    For more: The pandemic PC boom is over, but its legacy will live on

    Microsoft reported PC revenue of $13.3 billion for the quarter, roughly flat from $13.31 billion a year before and beating the average analyst estimate of $13.12 billion, according to FactSet. While PCs have long been what consumers largely know Microsoft for, their importance to the company’s financials has declined in recent years as cloud computing has grown in importance.

    “Historically, Windows was a very large driver of Microsoft revenue and, given its strong margins, a disproportionate driver of earnings,” Bernstein analysts wrote in a preview of the report, while maintaining an “overweight” rating. “Over time other businesses, especially Microsoft’s commercial Cloud, have grown fast while the Windows business has grown quite slower, decreasing the relative impact of Windows.”

    Microsoft’s other revenue segment, “Productivity and Business Processes,” reported revenue of $16.5 billion, up from $15.04 billion a year ago and higher than the average analyst estimate of $16.13 billion, according to FactSet. That segment includes Microsoft’s core cloud-software properties such as its Office suite of products — which is being officially renamed Microsoft 365 — as well as LinkedIn and some other properties.

    Microsoft’s second-quarter guidance will be crucial to investors hoping that the tech giant can withstand any economic jolts headed its way and show stronger growth in cloud. Analysts on average were expecting overall second-quarter revenue of $56.16 billion and “Intelligent Cloud” sales of $21.82 billion heading into the print, according to FactSet, while some wrote that they would like to hear more from Microsoft executives about the picture for the full year.

    “Our hope is that management provides a bit more color on full-year fiscal 2023 beyond just the double-digit revenue growth and operating margins being roughly flat commentary from last quarter,” MoffetNathanson analysts, who have a “market perform” rating and $282 price target on the stock, wrote in their preview. “We would expect headcount-related revenue streams like Office to see increasing headwinds in coming quarters, but volume businesses like Azure, which is tied to data, being more resilient.”

    Microsoft stock has declined 25.5% so far this year, as the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +1.63%

    has dropped 20.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +1.07%

    — which counts Microsoft as one of its 30 components — has declined 13.3%.

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  • SAP reports cloud-driven higher revenue, confirms annual profit and sales outlook

    SAP reports cloud-driven higher revenue, confirms annual profit and sales outlook

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    SAP SE, the German business software company, confirmed its profit and sales outlook for the year after posting higher third-quarter revenue led by growth at its cloud business.

    Reporting on a non-IFRS basis, the Walldorf, Germany-based company
    SAP,
    +0.14%

    SAP,
    +4.18%

    said Tuesday that revenue jumped to 7.84 billion euros ($7.74 billion) from EUR6.85 billion, with cloud revenue up to EUR3.29 billion from EUR2.39 billion. Software-licenses revenue fell to EUR406 million from EUR657 million.

    Analysts polled by FactSet had forecast overall revenue of EUR7.65 billion, and cloud revenue of EUR3.19 billion.

    “We have delivered a strong cloud quarter with accelerating momentum across all key cloud indicators,” SAP Chief Financial Officer Luka Mucic said. The company said its cloud business performed strongly in all regions led by the U.S. and Germany, while activity in Brazil, China, India and Switzerland was particularly robust.

    SAP is moving away from software-licenses sales, once its biggest revenue streams, to subscription-based cloud services, banking on a more profitable and predictable model based on recurring revenue.

    “With a recurring revenue share of more than 80%, it’s clear that our transformation has reached an important inflection point, paving the way for continued growth in the future,” SAP Chief Executive Christian Klein said.

    Operating profit for the quarter slipped to EUR2.09 billion from EUR2.10 billion a year earlier, with SAP’s operating margin down to 26.7% from 30.7%. Analysts polled by FactSet had forecast operating profit of EUR2 billion.

    SAP, like other European software companies, presents its figures as two sets of numbers. One set is based on the International Financial Reporting Standards–an international accounting method that seeks to provide a global reporting standard–though analysts and investors tend to follow SAP’s non-IFRS numbers. Those figures exclude share-based compensation, restructuring expenses and acquisition-related charges.

    For the year, SAP continues to expect non-IFRS operating profit at constant currencies between EUR7.6 billion and EUR7.9 billion, and cloud revenue at constant currencies between EUR11.55 billion and EUR11.85 billion. However, free cash flow is now expected at roughly EUR4.5 billion against a previous forecast above EUR4.5 billion.

    Looking ahead, SAP is still targeting double-digit growth in operating profit for 2023, though the company said it expects to update midterm targets in the coming quarters, citing the strong cloud momentum and favorable currency movements.

    Write to Mauro Orru at mauro.orru@wsj.com; @MauroOrru94

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  • Microsoft Lays Off Employees After Slowdown in Earnings Growth

    Microsoft Lays Off Employees After Slowdown in Earnings Growth

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    The software giant said earlier this year that it planned to reduce staff by less than 1%

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  • These 11 stocks can lead your portfolio’s rebound after the S&P 500 ‘earnings recession’ and a market bottom next year

    These 11 stocks can lead your portfolio’s rebound after the S&P 500 ‘earnings recession’ and a market bottom next year

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    This may surprise you: Wall Street analysts expect earnings for the S&P 500 to increase 8% during 2023, despite all the buzz about a possible recession as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy to quell inflation.

    Ken Laudan, a portfolio manager at Kornitzer Capital Management in Mission, Kan., isn’t buying it. He expects an “earnings recession” for the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +2.78%

    — that is, a decline in profits of around 10%. But he also expects that decline to set up a bottom for the stock market.

    Laudan’s predictions for the S&P 500 ‘earnings recession’ and bottom

    Laudan, who manages the $83 million Buffalo Large Cap Fund
    BUFEX,
    -2.86%

    and co-manages the $905 million Buffalo Discovery Fund
    BUFTX,
    -2.82%
    ,
    said during an interview: “It is not unusual to see a 20% hit [to earnings] in a modest recession. Margins have peaked.”

    The consensus among analysts polled by FactSet is for weighted aggregate earnings for the S&P 500 to total $238.23 a share in 2023, which would be an 8% increase from the current 2022 EPS estimate of $220.63.

    Laudan said his base case for 2023 is for earnings of about $195 to $200 a share and for that decline in earnings (about 9% to 12% from the current consensus estimate for 2022) to be “coupled with an economic recession of some sort.”

    He expects the Wall Street estimates to come down, and said that “once Street estimates get to $205 or $210, I think stocks will take off.”

    He went further, saying “things get really interesting at 3200 or 3300 on the S&P.” The S&P 500 closed at 3583.07 on Oct. 14, a decline of 24.8% for 2022, excluding dividends.

    Laudan said the Buffalo Large Cap Fund was about 7% in cash, as he was keeping some powder dry for stock purchases at lower prices, adding that he has been “fairly defensive” since October 2021 and was continuing to focus on “steady dividend-paying companies with strong balance sheets.”

    Leaders for the stock market’s recovery

    After the market hits bottom, Laudan expects a recovery for stocks to begin next year, as “valuations will discount and respond more quickly than the earnings will.”

    He expects “long-duration technology growth stocks” to lead the rally, because “they got hit first.” When asked if Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +6.14%

    and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
    AMD,
    +3.69%

    were good examples, in light of the broad decline for semiconductor stocks and because both are held by the Buffalo Large Cap Fund, Laudan said: “They led us down and they will bounce first.”

    Laudan said his “largest tech holding” is ASML Holding N.V.
    ASML,
    +3.79%
    ,
    which provides equipment and systems used to fabricate computer chips.

    Among the largest tech-oriented companies, the Buffalo Large Cap fund also holds shares of Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +3.09%
    ,
    Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +3.88%
    ,
    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +6.63%

    and Alphabet Inc.
    GOOG,
    +3.91%

    GOOGL,
    +3.73%
    .

    Laudan also said he had been “overweight’ in UnitedHealth Group Inc.
    UNH,
    +1.77%
    ,
    Danaher Corp.
    DHR,
    +2.64%

    and Linde PLC
    LIN,
    +2.25%

    recently and had taken advantage of the decline in Adobe Inc.’s
    ADBE,
    +2.32%

    price following the announcement of its $20 billion acquisition of Figma, by scooping up more shares.

    Summarizing the declines

    To illustrate what a brutal year it has been for semiconductor stocks, the iShares Semiconductor ETF
    SOXX,
    +2.12%
    ,
    which tracks the PHLX Semiconductor Index
    SOX,
    +2.29%

    of 30 U.S.-listed chip makers and related equipment manufacturers, has dropped 44% this year. Then again, SOXX had risen 38% over the past three years and 81% for five years, underlining the importance of long-term thinking for stock investors, even during this terrible bear market for this particular tech space.

    Here’s a summary of changes in stock prices (again, excluding dividends) and forward price-to-forward-earnings valuations during 2022 through Oct. 14 for every stock mentioned in this article. The stocks are sorted alphabetically:

    Company

    Ticker

    2022 price change

    Forward P/E

    Forward P/E as of Dec. 31, 2021

    Apple Inc.

    AAPL,
    +3.09%
    -22%

    22.2

    30.2

    Adobe Inc.

    ADBE,
    +2.32%
    -49%

    19.4

    40.5

    Amazon.com Inc.

    AMZN,
    +6.63%
    -36%

    62.1

    64.9

    Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

    AMD,
    +3.69%
    -61%

    14.7

    43.1

    ASML Holding N.V. ADR

    ASML,
    +3.79%
    -52%

    22.7

    41.2

    Danaher Corp.

    DHR,
    +2.64%
    -23%

    24.3

    32.1

    Alphabet Inc. Class C

    GOOG,
    +3.91%
    -33%

    17.5

    25.3

    Linde PLC

    LIN,
    +2.25%
    -21%

    22.2

    29.6

    Microsoft Corp.

    MSFT,
    +3.88%
    -32%

    22.5

    34.0

    Nvidia Corp.

    NVDA,
    +6.14%
    -62%

    28.9

    58.0

    UnitedHealth Group Inc.

    UNH,
    +1.77%
    2%

    21.5

    23.2

    Source: FactSet

    You can click on the tickers for more about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    The forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 declined to 16.9 as of the close on Oct. 14 from 24.5 at the end of 2021, while the forward P/E for SOXX declined to 13.2 from 27.1.

    Don’t miss: This is how high interest rates might rise, and what could scare the Federal Reserve into a policy pivot

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  • Meet the 10 biggest megadonors for the 2022 midterm elections

    Meet the 10 biggest megadonors for the 2022 midterm elections

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    With four weeks until Election Day, congressional candidates are on track to break midterm fundraising records, having raised nearly $2.5 billion so far this cycle. That’s already 70% more than what was raised during the 2014 cycle and just $200 million shy of the total raised during the full 2018 cycle.

    This cycle has also seen record-shattering outside spending, topping $1 billion through the beginning of October, according to an OpenSecrets estimate.

    The increase in spending and fundraising is due in large part to the involvement of millionaire and billionaire megadonors who have sought to influence the outcome of an election in which both chambers of Congress are in play.

    “When megadonors pump millions of dollars into super PACs, they get to help call the shots,” said Michael Beckel, research director at Issue One, a nonpartisan political reform organization. “Massive spending from a megadonor can influence what issues are talked about on the campaign trail and in Congress.”

    Super PACs are independent political action committees that can raise unlimited sums of money but are not allowed to coordinate with a candidate or campaign. Due to contribution limits, such as those restricting individuals’ candidate contributions to $2,900 per election per candidate, most megadonor spending goes to super PACs.

    More context: These are the basics of campaign finance in 2020 — in two handy charts

    A MarketWatch analysis of Federal Election Commission data through the end of September shows that these 10 business moguls and philanthropists are the biggest federal-level donors this cycle.

    Read: These 3 races could determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate in 2023

    And see: If this seat flips red, Republicans will have ‘probably won a relatively comfortable House majority’

    Top federal-level megadonors this cycle
    Rank

    Contributor

    Total Contributions

    For Republicans

    For Democrats

    Nonpartisan/Bipartisan

    1

    George Soros

    $128,782,000

    $0

    $128,782,000

    $0

    2

    Ken Griffin

    $50,955,800

    $50,955,800

    $0

    $0

    3

    Richard Uihlein

    $49,117,000

    $49,117,000

    $0

    $0

    4

    Sam Bankman-Fried

    $39,931,000

    $201,000

    $37,725,000

    $2,005,000

    5

    Jeff Yass

    $32,754,000

    $32,754,000

    $0

    $0

    6

    Peter Thiel

    $30,189,000

    $30,189,000

    $0

    $0

    7

    Fred Eychaner

    $22,343,000

    $0

    $22,343,000

    $0

    8

    Stephen Schwarzman

    $21,870,000

    $21,865,000

    $0

    $5,000

    9

    Larry Ellison

    $21,003,000

    $21,003,000

    $0

    $0

    10

    Ryan Salame

    $18,932,000

    $17,432,000

    $0

    $1,500,000

    Totals:

    $415,877,000

    $223,517,000

    $188,850,000

    $3,510,000

    Source: MarketWatch analysis of FEC data as of Sept. 30, 2022
    Note: Partisan breakdown includes non-party affiliated PACs with over 95% of their spending benefitting one party, data has been rounded to the nearest thousand

    Big spending by itself doesn’t automatically mean winning. There have been notable instances of the financially strongest candidates losing (such as crypto-backed House candidate Carrick Flynn earlier this year and billionaire Michael Bloomberg’s self-financed presidential bid) — but money can certainly help put a candidate on the right track.

    “Money alone doesn’t guarantee electoral success, but every candidate prefers to be the one with more money to spend,” Beckel said. He added: “Outside spending on behalf of a candidate isn’t a silver bullet that’s going to guarantee electoral success. But it goes a long way to boosting somebody’s name recognition, and to presenting them as a viable candidate — somebody who has the resources to run a competitive campaign.”

    Information about the spending by the top 10 donors this cycle has been compiled from MarketWatch’s analysis of FEC data and filings, super PAC websites and previously reported comments. Read on to find out who are the top 10 biggest donors this cycle.

    10. Ryan Salame — $19 million

    Ryan Salame, the co-CEO of FTX Digital Markets, a subsidiary of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, founded a hybrid PAC earlier this year called American Dream Federal Action. The vast majority ($15 million) of the $19 million Salame has spent this cycle has gone into bankrolling the PAC, which has spent $2.4 million in independent expenditures supporting Illinois Republican Rep. Rodney Davis, $2 million supporting Republican Senate candidate Katie Britt from Alabama, and $1.2 million each supporting Arkansas GOP Sen. John Boozman and Brad Finstad, a GOP congressional candidate in Minnesota.

    On its website, the PAC describes itself as “organization dedicated to electing forward-looking candidates — those who want to protect America’s long term economic and national security by advancing smart policy decisions now.” A representative for Salame didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    9. Lawrence Ellison — $21 million

    The co-founder of Oracle
    ORCL,
    +0.26%

    has similarly bankrolled a PAC this election cycle — giving a total $20 million to Opportunity Matters Fund Inc. The super PAC has largely held onto its funds so far, recent FEC records show, having $17 million cash on hand as of the end of August. Of the independent expenditures it has made this cycle, it spent the most on Georgia Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker ($1.3 million), Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson ($1.3 million) and North Carolina Senate candidate and current Republican Rep. Ted Budd ($1.1 million). A representative for Ellison didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    8. Stephen Schwarzman — $22 million

    Billionaire Stephen Schwarzman, the CEO of private-equity giant Blackstone
    BX,
    -2.41%
    ,
    is the eighth biggest donor at the federal level this cycle. In March, Schwarzman gave $10 million to both the Senate Leadership Fund and Congressional Leadership Fund, super PACs aimed at obtaining a Republican majority in the Senate and House, respectively. A representative for Schwarzman didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    7. Fred Eychaner — $22 million

    Fred Eychaner has also contributed $22 million so far this cycle, but unlike most of the spending on this list, his has been directed toward Democratic causes. The chairman of Chicago-based Newsweb Corporation has given $9 million to the House Majority PAC and $8 million to the Senate Majority PAC, as well as just under $1.5 million to the Democratic National Committee and several hundred thousands to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. A representative for Eychaner didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    6. Peter Thiel — $30 million

    Venture capitalist Peter Thiel was heavily involved in backing Ohio Republican J.D. Vance’s primary bid, giving $15 million in the spring to the Vance-aligned Protect Ohio Values PAC.

    The massive primary investment was “historic” and record-setting, according to Beckel, who added that Thiel’s involvement in the Ohio Senate primary could mark “a new chapter of how mega donors are choosing to play in politics.”

    “I think it’s become clear for a lot of megadonors that there are high stakes to a lot of primaries, and by spending in the primary, where there is typically lower turnout than in say, a statewide general election, they can get a lot of bang for their buck by investing in a primary election,” Beckel added.

    Thiel has indicated that he doesn’t intend to put any more money toward Vance’s bid as he reportedly believes the Ohio candidate is on track to win, and instead will focus his funding on Arizona Republican Blake Masters’ bid to oust Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in the final weeks leading up to the midterm election.

    Thiel, known for his roles in PayPal
    PYPL,
    -1.69%
    ,
    Palantir
    PLTR,
    -0.25%

    and Facebook
    META,
    -3.92%
    ,
    has also given a total $15 million to the Masters-aligned PAC, Saving Arizona, with his most recent contribution in July. Both Vance and Masters are venture capitalists, but Masters has worked with Thiel. He served as chief operating officer of Thiel Capital and president of the Thiel Foundation, and he co-authored a book on startups with Thiel in 2014. A representative for Thiel didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    5. Jeff Yass — $33 million

    Options trader Jeff Yass, who founded trading firm Susquehanna International Group, has contributed about $33 million on a federal level this cycle. Yass has given $15 million to the School Freedom Fund, or the equivalent of 97% of the PAC’s total fundraising. The group focuses on the issue of school choice, and its website states that some bureaucrats “hindered the development and education of our youth through school closures, mask mandates, critical race theory, and more.”

    Aside from the School Freedom Fund, Yass’ other biggest contributions are to the conservative Club for Action ($6.5 million), Kentucky Freedom ($5 million), Protect Freedom ($2 million) and Crypto Freedom ($1.9 million). A representative for Yass didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    4. Sam Bankman-Fried — $40 million

    Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder and CEO of FTX, is the main funder behind Protect Our Future PAC, giving it $27 million of the $28 million it raised this cycle. 

    The organization says on its website that it focuses on promoting Democratic candidates championing pandemic preparedness and prevention “so this is the last time in our lifetime, and our children’s lifetimes, that we will face the devastation that has gripped communities across the U.S. since 2020.”

    The group spent more than $10 million supporting Democrat Carrick Flynn’s House bid in Oregon. Flynn lost his primary in May by 18 points despite his massive outside spending advantage. In addition to Flynn, the group has made over $1 million in independent expenditures each supporting Democratic congressional candidates Lucy McBath, a current representative from Georgia; Jasmine Crockett of Texas, Adam Hollier of Michigan, Valerie Foushee of North Carolina and Shontel Brown, a current representative from Ohio.

    Most of the other $10 million Bankman-Fried spent this cycle has gone to the House Majority PAC ($6 million) and the crypto PAC GMI ($2 million).

    While the vast majority of his spending has supported Democratic candidates and causes, Bankman-Fried does not classify himself as an exclusively Democratic donor — for instance he gave $105,000 to the Alabama Conservatives Fund in June and $45,000 to the NRCC in July. 

    He told Politico in August that he is “legitimately worried about doing things that will make people view me as partisan when it’s not how I feel … because I think it both misses what I’m trying to do and makes it harder for me to act constructively.” A representative for the FTX boss didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    3. Richard Uihlein — $49 million

    Richard Uihlein is the founder of the shipping and business supply company Uline, and is a longtime conservative donor. This cycle has seen nearly $50 million in political spending by him, with just over half of it going to Club for Growth Action. Uihlein has also given about $14 million to Restoration PAC, an organization that says it is “dedicated to strengthening the foundations that made America the greatest nation in the world: God, family, education, and community.”

    Uihlein’s next largest contributions are to the conservative Team PAC ($2.5 million) and the Arkansas Patriots Fund ($2.2 million), which earlier this year made ad buys favoring Republican Sen. John Boozman’s primary opponent. A representative for Uihlein didn’t respond to a request for comment.

    2. Ken Griffin — $51 million

    With $51 million in federal-level political spending, Ken Griffin, CEO of hedge fund Citadel, is the second most prolific donor this cycle.

    The biggest beneficiaries are the Republican-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund with $18.5 million in contributions, the Senate Leadership Fund with $10 million and Honor Pennsylvania, a super PAC that backed Republican Dave McCormick’s Senate bid. McCormick lost in the primary to Mehmet Oz by less than a thousand votes. 

    While Griffin spent about $64 million during the last cycle, his $51 million figure this year marks by far the most he has spent during a midterm cycle. During the 2018 cycle, his contributions totaled less than $8 million.

    A spokesperson for Griffin told MarketWatch that Griffin “supports leaders who are committed to protecting the American Dream and pursuing policies that will create a better future for the United States.”

    “The right policies will focus on creating rewarding jobs, prioritizing public safety, and investing in a strong national defense,” his spokesperson said. “Preserving the American Dream will require that every child is well educated, can access great healthcare, and has the opportunity to succeed.”

    1. George Soros — $129 million

    Not one donor comes close to matching the sum that billionaire philanthropist George Soros has contributed this cycle: $129 million. However, much of that money hasn’t actually been put to work this cycle.

    The majority of those on this list have focused their funding on Republican causes, but Soros’ money has gone to Democratic groups — specifically Democracy PAC II, whose $125 million in contributions comprises 99% of its fundraising. The super PAC spent more than $80 million on Democratic groups and candidates during the 2020 election.

    A representative for Soros pointed MarketWatch to a Politico article from January, in which Soros said the $125 million is aimed at supporting pro-democracy “causes and candidates, regardless of political party” who are invested in “strengthening the infrastructure of American democracy: voting rights and civic participation, civil rights and liberties, and the rule of law” and called his contribution a “long-term investment” that will  support political work beyond this year.

    So far this cycle, Democracy PAC has spent very little and holds $113 million in available cash. Contributions the PAC has made this cycle include $5 million to the Senate Majority PAC, $2.5 million to One Georgia and $1 million to both Care in Action and House Majority PAC.

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  • Scientists use machine learning to accelerate materials discovery

    Scientists use machine learning to accelerate materials discovery

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    Newswise — A new computational approach will improve understanding of different states of carbon and guide the search for materials yet to be discovered.

    Materials — we use them, wear them, eat them and create them. Sometimes we invent them by accident, like with Silly Putty. But far more often, making useful materials is a tedious and expensive process of trial and error.

    Scientists at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Argonne National Laboratory have recently demonstrated an automated process for identifying and exploring promising new materials by combining machine learning (ML) — a type of artificial intelligence — and high performance computing. The new approach could help accelerate the discovery and design of useful materials.

    Using the single element carbon as a prototype, the algorithm predicted the ways in which atoms order themselves under a wide range of temperatures and pressures to make up different substances. From there, it constructed a series of what scientists call phase diagrams — a kind of map that helps guide their search for new and useful states of matter.

    “The more of this process a computer can handle on its own, the more materials science we can get done.” — Argonne scientist Pierre Darancet 

    “We trained a computer to probe, question and learn how carbon atoms could be organized to create phases that we might not find on earth or that we don’t fully understand, thereby automating a whole step in the materials development process,” said Pierre Darancet, an Argonne scientist and author on the study. ​“The more of this process a computer can handle on its own, the more materials science we can get done.”

    Equilibrium and beyond

    When a material’s atomic structure changes, so can its electronic, thermal and mechanical properties. Scientists want to find new ways to arrange atoms to develop useful materials. A prime way to change the atomic structure of a material is to vary the surrounding pressure and temperature.

    We see this sort of structural change commonly in water. At room temperature and normal atmospheric pressure, water is most stable as a liquid. If you decrease the temperature enough, the same water molecules will arrange themselves to form solid ice.

    Similarly, diamond and graphite are wildly different materials, but they both consist exclusively of carbon atoms — just arranged in different ways. Under normal conditions, graphite is a much more stable form of carbon than diamond. Under conditions of extreme pressure and heat, however, graphite slowly crystallizes into diamond. When removed from those extreme conditions, the diamond persists, lingering in what scientists call a metastable state.

    The ML algorithm constructed phase diagrams that mapped hundreds of these metastable states of carbon, some known and some new.

    “It’s experimentally difficult to predict and produce states of matter that are not near equilibrium conditions,” said Jianguo Wen, an Argonne experimentalist on the study. ​“This new computational approach enables us to explore those little-known regions on the maps that aren’t otherwise accessible, or that we don’t yet even know exist.”

    Verifying the algorithm

    The scientists trained the ML algorithm with synthetic data, which is produced through simulation and approximates results scientists would get through experiment. They generated the dataset using molecular dynamics and density functional theory, both common computational chemistry tools.

    The training data was produced using Carbon, a high performance computing cluster at Argonne’s Center for Nanoscale Materials (CNM), a DOE Office of Science user facility. Also used were two other DOE user facilities: the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility and the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

    Using the algorithm’s predictions as a guide, the team verified its efficacy by synthesizing actual samples and characterizing them using a transmission electron microscope at CNM.

    The algorithm successfully predicted well-known phase diagrams for carbon, and the computer-generated phase diagrams affirmed and shed light on several yet-unexplained experimental observations.

    In particular, the algorithm identified the previously ambiguous structure of n-diamond (stands for ​“new diamond”), a state of carbon that has mystified scientists since it was theorized over 30 years ago. ​“The algorithm made new and surprising predictions about structural features of n-diamond that we verified with experiment, demonstrating that the algorithm holds up, even with high-profile phases,” said Wen.

    The team also synthesized several phases predicted by the algorithm that have not yet been reported in the scientific literature. The structures of the samples matched the predictions, further verifying the algorithm.

    “Materials synthesis, especially of those with exotic properties, can often take several experimental trials and years of effort,” said Argonne scientist Subramanian Sankaranarayanan, a lead author on the study. ​“Our machine learning algorithms allow us to identify the synthesis conditions of exotic materials, potentially reducing the time for their experimental realization.”

    In this study, the algorithm was applied to carbon only. In the future, the scientists hope to apply the same approach to systems of more than one element. Applying the machine learning algorithm to more complex systems could lead to broad impact on the discovery and design of useful materials.

    paper on the study, ​“Machine learning the metastable phase diagram of covalently bonded carbon,” was published in Nature Communications. In addition to Darancet, Sankaranarayanan and Wen, Argonne authors include Rohit Batra, Henry Chan, Troy Loeffler, Duan Luo, Sukriti Manna and Srilok Srinivasan.

    This work was supported by the DOE Office of Basic Energy Sciences, Data, Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning through the DOE Scientific User Facilities program (Digital Twins and Collaborative MLExchange). Additional computing resources included Fusion and Blues, high performance computing clusters operated by the Laboratory Computing Resource Center at Argonne.

    About Argonne’s Center for Nanoscale Materials
    The Center for Nanoscale Materials is one of the five DOE Nanoscale Science Research Centers, premier national user facilities for interdisciplinary research at the nanoscale supported by the DOE Office of Science. Together the NSRCs comprise a suite of complementary facilities that provide researchers with state-of-the-art capabilities to fabricate, process, characterize and model nanoscale materials, and constitute the largest infrastructure investment of the National Nanotechnology Initiative. The NSRCs are located at DOE’s Argonne, Brookhaven, Lawrence Berkeley, Oak Ridge, Sandia and Los Alamos National Laboratories. For more information about the DOE NSRCs, please visit https://​sci​ence​.osti​.gov/​U​s​e​r​-​F​a​c​i​l​i​t​i​e​s​/​U​s​e​r​-​F​a​c​i​l​i​t​i​e​s​-​a​t​-​a​-​G​lance.

    The Argonne Leadership Computing Facility provides supercomputing capabilities to the scientific and engineering community to advance fundamental discovery and understanding in a broad range of disciplines. Supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Science, Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program, the ALCF is one of two DOE Leadership Computing Facilities in the nation dedicated to open science.

    Argonne National Laboratory seeks solutions to pressing national problems in science and technology. The nation’s first national laboratory, Argonne conducts leading-edge basic and applied scientific research in virtually every scientific discipline. Argonne researchers work closely with researchers from hundreds of companies, universities, and federal, state and municipal agencies to help them solve their specific problems, advance America’s scientific leadership and prepare the nation for a better future. With employees from more than 60 nations, Argonne is managed by UChicago Argonne, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science.

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science is the single largest supporter of basic research in the physical sciences in the United States and is working to address some of the most pressing challenges of our time. For more information, visit https://​ener​gy​.gov/​s​c​ience.

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    Argonne National Laboratory

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  • For Long-Term Investors, It’s Time to Buy Tech Again. Here Are 20 Stocks to Look at First.

    For Long-Term Investors, It’s Time to Buy Tech Again. Here Are 20 Stocks to Look at First.

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    One cruel truth the stock market confirmed this past week is that trying to pick the bottom for technology stocks is a fool’s errand. The Nasdaq Composite’s terrible September—it was down 10.5% on the month—has made the bottom-fishing that took place over the summer look ill-advised. As I’ve noted before, the first downturn in tech earlier this year was all about valuations. This new phase of the decline is all about softening earnings. When it comes to price-to-earnings ratios, the market is running into a denominator problem.

    The market downturn, the weaker economy, and the reversal of some pandemic-era trends have exposed weaknesses in the business models of companies such as


    Peloton Interactive


    (ticker: PTON),


    Zoom Video Communications


    (ZM),


    Shopify


    (SHOP),


    Affirm Holdings


    (AFRM), and


    Snap


    (SNAP), and investors have adjusted valuations accordingly. But there are still some powerful underlying secular trends that should eventually drive tech stocks higher. Investors with long time horizons and strong stomachs might consider inching into the market. I have a few ideas on where to look.

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  • These 20 stocks in the S&P 500 tumbled between 20% and 30% in September

    These 20 stocks in the S&P 500 tumbled between 20% and 30% in September

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    Stocks declined again on Friday, closing out September with large losses across the board as the rally from the June lows partway through August faded into memory.

    The S&P 500
    SPX,
    -1.51%

    fell 1.5% on Friday. The benchmark index slumped 9.3% for September, leading to a 2022 loss of 24.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -1.71%

    gave up 1.7% on Friday, for a September decline of 8.8%. The Dow has now fallen 20.9% for 2022. The Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP,
    -1.51%

    pulled back 1.5% on Friday for a September drop of 10.5% and a year-to-date plunge of 32.4%. (All price changes in this article exclude dividends.)

    Below is a list of stocks in the S&P 500 that fell the most during September.

    It was the worst September performance for U.S. stocks since 2008, according to Dow Jones Market Data. William Watts looked back to see what poor performance during September may portend for October.

    Real estate leads the sector bloodbath

    All sectors of the S&P 500 were down during September, including five that fell by double digits:

    S&P 500 sector

    Sept. 30 price change

    September price change

    2022 price change

    Real Estate

    1.0%

    -13.6%

    -30.4%

    Communication Services

    -1.7%

    -12.2%

    -39.4%

    Information Technology

    -1.9%

    -12.0%

    -31.9%

    Utilities

    -2.0%

    -11.5%

    -8.6%

    Industrials

    -1.3%

    -10.6%

    -21.7%

    Energy

    -0.9%

    -9.7%

    30.7%

    Materials

    -0.3%

    -9.6%

    -24.9%

    Consumer Staples

    -1.8%

    -8.3%

    -13.5%

    Consumer Discretionary

    -1.8%

    -8.1%

    -30.3%

    Financials

    -1.1%

    -7.9%

    -22.4%

    Health Care

    -1.4%

    -2.7%

    -14.1%

    S&P 500

    -1.5%

    -9.3%

    -24.8%

    Source: FactSet

    Worst performers in the S&P 500 in September
    Company

    Ticker

    Sept. 30 price change

    September price change

    2022 price change

    Decline from 52-week intraday high

    Date of 52-week intraday high

    FedEx Corp.

    FDX,
    -2.52%
    -2.5%

    -29.6%

    -42.6%

    -44.4%

    01/05/2022

    V.F. Corp.

    VFC,
    -2.73%
    -2.7%

    -27.8%

    -59.2%

    -62.1%

    11/16/2021

    Lumen Technologies Inc.

    LUMN,
    -1.36%
    -1.4%

    -26.9%

    -42.0%

    -49.8%

    11/05/2021

    Ford Motor Co.

    F,
    -2.35%
    -2.4%

    -26.5%

    -46.1%

    -56.7%

    01/13/2022

    Charter Communications Inc. Class A

    CHTR,
    -2.96%
    -3.0%

    -26.5%

    -53.5%

    -59.8%

    10/07/2021

    Adobe Inc.

    ADBE,
    -1.10%
    -1.1%

    -26.3%

    -51.5%

    -60.7%

    11/22/2021

    Carnival Corp.

    CCL,
    -23.25%
    -23.3%

    -25.7%

    -65.1%

    -73.5%

    10/01/2021

    CarMax Inc.

    KMX,
    +1.32%
    1.3%

    -25.4%

    -49.3%

    -57.7%

    11/08/2021

    Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

    AMD,
    -1.22%
    -1.2%

    -25.3%

    -56.0%

    -61.5%

    11/30/2021

    Caesars Entertainment Inc.

    CZR,
    -0.49%
    -0.5%

    -25.2%

    -65.5%

    -73.1%

    10/01/2021

    Boeing Co.

    BA,
    -3.39%
    -3.4%

    -24.4%

    -39.9%

    -48.2%

    11/15/2021

    WestRock Co.

    WRK,
    -1.56%
    -1.6%

    -23.9%

    -30.4%

    -43.6%

    05/05/2022

    International Paper Co.

    IP,
    -1.22%
    -1.2%

    -23.8%

    -32.5%

    -44.0%

    10/13/2021

    Western Digital Corp.

    WDC,
    +1.15%
    1.1%

    -23.0%

    -50.1%

    -53.1%

    01/05/2022

    Newell Brands Inc.

    NWL,
    -0.57%
    -0.6%

    -22.2%

    -36.4%

    -47.5%

    02/16/2022

    Eastman Chemical Co.

    EMN,
    +0.34%
    0.3%

    -21.9%

    -41.2%

    -45.1%

    01/19/2022

    Nike Inc. Class B

    NKE,
    -12.81%
    -12.8%

    -21.9%

    -50.1%

    -53.6%

    11/05/2021

    Seagate Technology Holdings PLC

    STX,
    -2.11%
    -2.1%

    -20.5%

    -52.9%

    -54.8%

    01/05/2022

    PVH Corp.

    PVH,
    -3.55%
    -3.6%

    -20.4%

    -58.0%

    -64.3%

    11/05/2021

    Dish Network Corp. Class A

    DISH,
    -2.19%
    -2.2%

    -20.3%

    -57.4%

    -70.1%

    10/04/2021

    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more about each company, including developments that led to their share-price declines.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    FedEx Corp.
    FDX,
    -2.52%

    tops the list because of investors’ harsh reaction to the company’s sales and profit warning on Sept. 16. Claudia Assis and Greg Robb explained the implications of FedEx’s warning for the broad economy.

    Shares of Carnival Corp.
    CCL,
    -23.25%

    fell 23% on Friday (for a September decline of 26%) after the cruise giant again reported sales and earnings below what analysts had expected, even though it reported increasing its capacity usage to 92%.

    Nike Inc.
    NKE,
    -12.81%

    was down 13% on Friday for a September decline of 22%, after the company warned that discounting to clear inventory would continue to affect its earnings performance. Here’s how analysts reacted.

    Adobe Inc.
    ADBE,
    -1.10%

    made the list because of investors’ doubt about its dilutive $20 billion deal to acquire Figma.

    The bulk of CarMax’s
    KMX,
    +1.32%

    drop for the month came on Sept. 29, after the used-car dealer missed sales and earnings estimates and indicated that consumers were beginning to resist high prices.

    Don’t miss: Dividend yields on preferred stocks have soared. This is how to pick the best ones for your portfolio.

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