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Tag: commodity

  • China’s debt outlook cut to negative by Moody’s

    China’s debt outlook cut to negative by Moody’s

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    Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday cut the outlook on China’s debt to negative from stable citing expectations that the national government will have to step in to rescue regional and local governments.

    Moody’s kept China’s long-term rating at A1.

    “The change to a negative outlook reflects rising evidence that financial support will be provided by the government and wider public sector to financially-stressed regional and local governments and state-owned enterprises, posing broad downside risks to China’s fiscal, economic and institutional strength,” said the note from the rating agency, which last month cut the outlook on the U.S.

    China’s property troubles mean that regional and local governments face a loss of land sale revenue, which accounted for 37% of their revenue in 2022 outside of central government transfers. Moody’s says regions that relied most heavily on land sales won’t be able to offset that revenue loss from other sources.

    Moody’s estimates one-third of state-owned enterprises debt — some 40% of GDP — has an interest coverage below 1, which indicates weak debt sustainability. “While not all [state-owned enterprises] are likely to need direct government support, even a moderate proportion doing so over the medium term would represent a significant crystallization of contingent liabilities for the sovereign, increasing the costs of financial support and diminishing fiscal strength,” said Moody’s.

    In a rough day for Chinese stocks, the Hang Seng
    HK:HSI
    fell 1.9%, and the Shanghai Composite
    CN:SHCOMP
    dropped 1.7%.

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  • China’s Colossal Hidden-Debt Problem Is Coming to a Head

    China’s Colossal Hidden-Debt Problem Is Coming to a Head

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    China’s Colossal Hidden-Debt Problem Is Coming to a Head

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  • Oil prices drop to 2-week lows as doubts linger over OPEC+ production cuts

    Oil prices drop to 2-week lows as doubts linger over OPEC+ production cuts

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    Oil futures fell Monday to their lowest levels in more than two weeks, building on recent declines that came after a round of voluntary production cuts announced by OPEC+ left traders skeptical about compliance.

    Price action

    • West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery
      CL00,
      -0.63%

      CL.1,
      -0.63%

      CLF24,
      -0.63%
      fell 85 cents, or 1.2%, to $73.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange,

    • February Brent crude
      BRN00,
      -0.44%

      BRNG24,
      -0.44%
      dropped $1.29, or 1.6%, $77.59 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

    • January gasoline was down 0.1% at $2.1198 a gallon, while January heating oil
      HOF24,
      +0.85%
      edge down 0.4% to $2.6501 a gallon.

    • January natural gas
      NGF24,
      -4.48%
      declined 5.3% to $2.664 per million British thermal units.

    Market drivers

    The OPEC+ deal last week was “unconvincing, to say the least, and oil prices have been in decline ever since,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.

    “With markets seemingly anticipating more of an economic slowdown next year, the announcement simply doesn’t go far enough,” he said in market commentary. “It’s another large cut but how much will actually be delivered on? And are we at the limits of what the alliance is willing to achieve to balance the markets?”

    Crude prices ended last week with back-to-back losses after OPEC+ producers on Thursday agreed to voluntarily cut around 2.2 million barrels a day (mbd) of crude from the market in the first quarter of next year, a figure that included a widely expected extension of Saudi Arabia’s 1 mbd voluntary output cut and Russia’s 300,000 barrel a day cut to crude exports.

    OPEC+ cuts “look like they have rebalanced the market” for the first quarter of next year, but without further OPEC+ cuts in supply from the second quarter, “oil looks to register a 1 mbd surplus in that quarter, analysts at Citi wrote in a note dated Monday.

    The voluntary nature of the overall reductions sparked skepticism around enforcement and compliance, analysts said.

    “Soft price action since the OPEC+ meeting is reflective of an investor cohort that remains perplexed on how to deploy risk. The near-term path of least resistance is lower, given the degree of ambiguity and lack of catalysts,” Michael Tran, commodity and digital intelligence strategist at RBC Capital Markets, said in a Sunday note.

    “Oil has become a ‘show me’ type market. Now here comes the hard part: Prices will likely remain volatile and potentially directionless until the market sees clear data points pertaining to the voluntary output cuts,” he said.

    Those cuts won’t be implemented until next month, with country-level production and export data to follow. That means it will be a “long and volatile” two months before there is even preliminary clarity on compliance — “a long stretch for a market that is seeing a high degree of uncertainty, lack of risk deployment and a liquidity vacuum,” Tran wrote.

    Traders were also monitoring developments in the Middle East following an escalation of maritime attacks related to the Israel-Hamas war.

    Ballistic missiles fired by Yemen’s Houthi rebels hit three commercial ships Sunday in the Red Sea, while a U.S. warship shot down three drones in self-defense during the hourslong assault, according to the U.S. military. The Iranian-backed Houthis claimed two of the attacks.

    Oil futures spiked higher following the Hamas attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7 but failed to challenge their late September highs. Crude subsequently fell back as fears of a broader conflict that could threaten crude flows faded, trading well below levels seen just before the start of the conflict.

    — Associated Press contributed.

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  • Why the U.S. economy isn't out of the woods as stock market soars

    Why the U.S. economy isn't out of the woods as stock market soars

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    A rally in the U.S. stock and bond markets in the past week defied the bears and fueled hopes for more gains to come by year-end and in 2024 as Wall Street bought into the idea that the economy will pull off a “soft landing” after a run of interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

    But market skeptics are putting investors on alert that the “soft-landing” scenario is still at risk with consumer spending and job growth slowing, along with corporate earnings.  

    “The equity market is misguided,” said Josh Schachter, senior portfolio manager at Easterly Investment Partners, in a phone interview with MarketWatch. “The markets are behaving in almost a bipolar fashion — some asset classes such as bonds
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y,
    oil
    BRN00,
    -0.29%    ,
    and dollar
    DXY,
    are being priced for a recession, while other assets such as equities and bitcoin
    BTCUSD,
    +2.16%    ,
    are priced risk-on.” 

    U.S. stocks built on their November gains in the past week, with the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    ending at new 2023 high on Friday and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    logging its fifth week in the green. The rebound in stocks was due in part to bond investors starting to believe the Fed is done raising interest rates and is likely to begin cutting them by the first quarter of 2024. 

    Meanwhile, the narrative that a resilient labor market and steadier-than-expected economic growth should keep a recession at bay has gained traction, bolstering the “goldilocks” scenario for the financial markets. 

    See: These two leading indicators suggest a U.S. recession has already begun, according to Wall Street’s favorite permabear

    However, signs are emerging that consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the U.S. economic output and has boosted the economy this year, has likely run its course following the post-pandemic recovery. Credit card and car loan delinquency rates are rising, student loan payments have resumed, consumer spending is cooling, and there are warnings from top retailers.

    Joseph Quinlan, head of CIO market strategy for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, said the “softness” in the U.S. consumer sector is visible but not huge, referring to that as “a canary in a coal mine,” he told MarketWatch via phone on Thursday. 

    The pullback in consumer spending is welcome news for Fed officials, who have increased interest rates 11 times since March 2022 to get inflation back to its preferred target of 2%. However, some analysts are worried that high interest rates and a decline in pandemic savings could eventually translate to weaker consumers in 2024, potentially another sign of a long-predicted slowdown in the U.S. economy.

    “One of the things I’m most concerned about is consumers’ ability to continue to pace the economy — you’ve got several headwinds that haven’t really borne completely out yet,” said Jason Heller, senior executive vice president at Coastal Wealth. “Does the consumer continue to behave the way they behaved the last 36 months? I think you will eventually see a slowdown in consumer spending which is going to mandate a slowdown in the labor market.” 

    Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, acknowledged that a modest slowdown in inflation and employment growth means that a “Fed relief rally” in stocks can be sustained, but her concern is this late-cycle limbo is no different than those of the past, which is a moment of “goldilocks” before the very reason that inflation is moderating — slowing economic growth and employment — becomes clear in the data.

    See: ‘We Are Still Headed for a Pretty Hard Landing,’ Ex-Treasury Secretary Larry Summers Says

    That’s why the November employment report, which will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics next Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, will be key for investors to watch. The U.S is expected to add 172,500 jobs in November after a 150,000 increase in the prior month, according to economists polled by Dow Jones. The percentage of jobless Americans seeking work is forecast to stay the same at 3.9%, leaving it at the highest level since the beginning of 2022.

    See: U.S. job growth pick up on the radar this coming week

    In fact, nonfarm payroll report publication days have been among the most volatile for stocks in 2023, compared with the release of monthly consumer-price index readings, which sparked some of the biggest daily up and down moves for the S&P 500 and other major indexes in 2022. 

    See also: Do CPI days still rock the stock market? How 2023 stacks up to 2022

    This year, the S&P 500 saw an absolute average percentage change of 1.12% on employment situation release dates, compared with an average percentage move of 0.64% on CPI days, according to figures compiled by Dow Jones Market Data. 

    That said, analysts are skeptical if the employment data is able to tell “a radically different story” but suggest the labor market will remain relatively tight into 2024, said Quinlan and Lauren Sanfilippo at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, in a phone interview. 

    See: What 2024 S&P 500 forecasts really say about the stock market

    Too much optimism in 2024 earnings growth

    Corporate America and their shares are telling investors a different story about next year. 

    With an estimated average S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.7% next year, the U.S. stock market is nowhere near recessionary concerns, said Heller. “We’ve [the stocks] priced in pretty significant growth in 2024.” 

    Strategists at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank are in the camp of expecting a “mid-single digit” earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2024, as earnings have troughed and the economy will fall back to the 2%-level of real growth after high rates confine consumer spending and corporate profits, cooling a red-hot economy. 

    To be sure, Wall Street analysts tend to overestimate the earnings-per-share (EPS) for the S&P 500, said John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. 

    The current bottom-up EPS estimate for the S&P 500 in 2024 is $246.30. If that holds true, that would be the highest EPS number reported by the large-cap index since FactSet began tracking this metric in 1996. 

    However, over the past 25 years, the average difference between the EPS estimate at the beginning of the year and the actual EPS number has been 6.9%, meaning analysts on average have overestimated the earnings one year in advance, said Butters in a Friday note (see chart below).

    SOURCE: FACTSET

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  • Bitcoin is up 130% this year. Could it extend the rally in December and 2024?

    Bitcoin is up 130% this year. Could it extend the rally in December and 2024?

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    Bitcoin has extended its rally on Friday, rising to the loftiest level since May 2022, pushing its yearly gain up to over 130%, on pace to be one of the best performing assets this year. 

    The crypto
    BTCUSD,
    +1.28%
    rose about 2.5% over the past 24 hours to around $38,676 Friday afternoon, as excitement about the potential approval of bitcoin exchange-traded funds continues to build. Bitcoin is still 44% down from its all-time high in 2021. 

    Risk assets in general performed well in November, as concerns eased around several pressure points, including the surge in long-term Treasury yields and inflation, analysts at Grayscale Research wrote in a Friday note.

    Despite outperforming many major assets year-to-date, bitcoin underperformed long-term Treasurys and the S&P 500 in November on a volatility-adjusted basis, gaining 9% for the month.


    Bloomberg; Grayscale Investments

    Sam Callahan, market analyst at Swan Bitcoin, said he expects bitcoin to trade between $36,000 and $40,000 by the end of the year, “provided that the macroeconomic environment doesn’t take a turn for the worse, and barring any significant positive development, such as the approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF or the adoption of Bitcoin by a major corporation, sovereign-wealth fund, or nation-state.”

    Despite bitcoin’s rally so far this year, December has historically been a particularly volatile month for the crypto, since it was created in 2009. It rose seven out of 13 times in December, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    In years when bitcoin gained more than 100% through November, the digital asset saw an average gain of 20% in December, rising four of the six times it occurred, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    To be sure, bitcoin has a relatively short history and was particularly volatile during its early years. 

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  • Gold futures soar to record close. Here’s what’s driving the rally.

    Gold futures soar to record close. Here’s what’s driving the rally.

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    Gold futures ended Friday at their highest on record, with prices on the cusp if a so-called golden cross — signaling the potential for further upside in the precious metal.

    Gold prices surged as the market reacted to the escalating tensions in the Middle East, said Bas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager of DHF Capital, in market commentary. The end of the truce in the region could “continue to fuel risk aversion and investors’ concerns.”

    The escalation has “helped extend gold’s uptrend of the last two months as traders take into account changing expectations regarding monetary policy,” he said. “Traders have been betting on an end to the interest rate hiking cycle and possible rate cuts in the first half of next year, which could continue to support gold’s rise over the medium term.”

    On Friday, gold for February delivery
    GC00,
    +0.10%

    GCG24,
    +0.10%
    climbed by $32.50, or 1.6%, to settle at $2,089.70 an ounce on Comex. Prices based on the most-active contracts, settled at an all-time high, surpassing the Aug. 6, 2020 record-high finish of $2,069.40, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Prices traded as high as $2,095.70 on an intraday basis on Friday, surpassing the previous record intraday high of $2,089.20 from Aug. 7, 2020.

    Gold’s rally started after the release of the October consumer-price index, Edmund Moy, senior IRA strategist for U.S. Money Reserve and a former director of the U.S. Mint, told MarketWatch. The data released Nov. 14 showed that the U.S. cost of living was unchanged in October.

    The market viewed that reading as saying the Fed has “tamed inflation and is probably finished raising rates and will, in all probability, start reducing rates sooner and faster than previously predicted,” said Moy.

    Lower Fed rates mean lower Treasury yields, and since Treasurys are purchased in dollars, falling demand for Treasurys means falling demand for the dollar, he said, which can boost the price for dollar-denominated gold.

    “While gold’s current rally is a bit overheated, both the golden cross and the proximity of an all-time high acting like a magnet for the price means that we’re likely to see further gains in the very immediate term,” Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter, told MarketWatch.

    Most-active gold futures on Friday were close to reaching a bullish indicator known as a golden cross, when an asset’s short-term moving average moves above its long-term moving average. The 50-day moving average was at $1,955.44, pennies below the 200-day moving average of $1,955.51 Friday.

    Gold prices around the globe had already rallied to fresh record price highs in other currencies and with the U.S. dollar gold price joining the party, “you can expect another wave of buying momentum to come into the market now,” said Peter Spina, president of GoldSeek.com.

    ““The end of the stealth phase move of the gold bull market is over. It will finally be acknowledged and recognized by the mainstream.””


    — Peter Spina, GoldSeek.com

    “I fully expect significantly higher gold prices in the months ahead,” he told MarketWatch. “The end of the stealth phase move of the gold bull market is over. It will finally be acknowledged and recognized by the mainstream.”

    Read: Gold rallies toward ‘golden cross’ after defying bearish signal

    Spina said it’s important to note that gold prices are “not hitting record highs, but rather the U.S. dollar is hitting record lows against superior money.”

    That says the U.S. dollar’s purchasing power is “being eroded even further, more aggressively now,” he said. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index
    DXY,
    a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, is down 0.3% for the year to date after a November pullback.

    The precious metal remains supported by Federal Reserve interest-rate cut bets even after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that it was too soon for the Fed to claim victory over the inflation beast, said Lukman Otunuga, manager, market analysis at FXTM.

    Read: Powell won’t endorse market expectations for quick rate cuts

    The Fed’s ability to cut interest rates in March is likely to be influenced by key data including CPI and jobs data, among others,” said Otunuga. “Given how the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily charts remains in overbought regions, gold could experience a technical throwback before pushing higher.”

    Lundin, meanwhile, also warned that the all-time high for gold may mark a “quadruple top” unless gold is able to decisively break through a new plateau, probably somewhere over $2,100 an ounce.

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  • UiPath’s stock soars after profit, revenue and ARR rise above forecasts

    UiPath’s stock soars after profit, revenue and ARR rise above forecasts

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    Shares of UiPath Inc. soared late Thursday after the automation-software company reported fiscal-third-quarter earnings and revenue that rose above expectations, amid strength in the licenses and subscription-services businesses.

    The stock
    PATH,
    -0.55%
    shot up 11% in after-hours trading, putting it on a path to trade at the highest closing levels seen since April 2022.

    Net losses for the quarter to Oct. 31 narrowed to $31.5 million, or 6 cents a share, from $57.7 million, or 10 cents a share, in the same period a year ago. Excluding nonrecurring items, such as stock-based compensation expenses, adjusted earnings per share rose to 12 cents from 5 cents to beat the FactSet consensus of 7 cents.

    Total revenue grew 24% to $325.9 million, above the FactSet consensus of $315.6 million.

    Licenses revenue jumped 25.3% to $148.1 million, well above the FactSet consensus of $137.5 million, and subscription-services revenue climbed 28.7% to $167.5 million to top expectations of $166.9 million. Meanwhile, professional services and other revenue dropped 28.4% to $10.3 million, to miss forecasts of $11.2 million.

    Annual recurring revenue increased 24% to $1.38 billion, above the FactSet consensus of $1.36 billion.

    For the fourth quarter, the company expects revenue of $381 million to $386 million, which surrounds the FactSet consensus of $383 million.

    The stock, which fell 0.6% during Thursday’s regular session after closing the previous session at a 15-month high, has run up 26.6% over the past three months, while the SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF
    XSW,
    -0.60%
    has tacked on 1.3% and the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.38%
    has edged up 1.2%.

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  • 7% Dividend Yields or Higher: The S&P 500’s 6 Best Payouts

    7% Dividend Yields or Higher: The S&P 500’s 6 Best Payouts

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    7% Dividend Yields or Higher: The S&P 500’s 6 Best Payouts

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  • Fisker Stock Is Down Again. It’s Still Feeling the Weight of Late Filing, Executive Departures.

    Fisker Stock Is Down Again. It’s Still Feeling the Weight of Late Filing, Executive Departures.

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    Fisker stock continues to be volatile in the aftermath of accounting control issues that led to unexpected management turnover.

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  • New-home sales drop in October to much lower level than expected

    New-home sales drop in October to much lower level than expected

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    The numbers: U.S. new-home sales fell 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 in October, from a revised 719,000 in September, the government reported Monday. 

    Analysts polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast new-home sales to occur at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 725,000 in October.

    The data are often revised sharply….

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  • Stock market is gaining momentum. What that means for December and beyond.

    Stock market is gaining momentum. What that means for December and beyond.

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    Barring a sudden bout of post-Thanksgiving indigestion, the U.S. stock market looks poised to log a healthy November rally. And while there are certainly no guarantees, history says momentum is likely to beget momentum into year-end.

    “I think the market is set up for a strong final six weeks of 2023 and I would expect the market to build on that momentum into year-end,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street, in a phone interview.

    Drivers…

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  • Health of several key sectors, including the U.S. consumer, plus an outlook from Fed’s Powell on radar this coming week

    Health of several key sectors, including the U.S. consumer, plus an outlook from Fed’s Powell on radar this coming week

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    Recession fears are rising. Nothing beats fear better than good information and that’s what we will get this week. Investors and economists will get good insight into the mood of U.S. consumers and hear the last words of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ahead of the central bank’s next interest-rate meeting on Dec. 12-13.

    November consumer confidence

    Tuesday, 10:00 a.m. Eastern

    Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expect that consumer’s view on the outlook have soured over the past few weeks. Geopolitical…

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  • Crypto bulls eye $40,000 as bitcoin’s next level as the coin refreshes yearly high

    Crypto bulls eye $40,000 as bitcoin’s next level as the coin refreshes yearly high

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    Crypto bulls are eyeing $40,000 as bitcoin’s next level, with the recent rally sending the crypto to a new high for the year, as the market shakes off the news that Binance’s co-founder Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty on Tuesday to criminal charges related to violating U.S. anti-money-laundering laws, and stepped down as head of the company.

    The largest crypto BTCUSD on Friday rose to as high as $38,294, the loftiest level since May 2022, according to CoinDesk data. It climbed over 3% over the past 24 hours. 

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  • U.S. economy growing only at a subdued rate in early November, S&P Global says

    U.S. economy growing only at a subdued rate in early November, S&P Global says

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    The numbers: The U.S. economy expanded but at a relatively subdued pace in early November, latest data from S&P Global show.

    The S&P Global “flash” U.S. services index rose to 50.8 in November from 50.6 in the prior month, the highest level in four months. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a reading of 50.2.

    On the…

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  • U.K. stocks break three-day losing streak

    U.K. stocks break three-day losing streak

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    U.K. stocks rose Thursday, as the FTSE 100 Index FTSE 100 Index closed up 0.19% at 7,483.58.

    Among FTSE 100 constituents, technical services company Intertek Group PLC Intertek Group PLC saw the largest increase Thursday, as shares climbed 3.42%.

    Shares of air freight firm International Distribution Services PLC International Distribution…

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  • Why stocks’ Thanksgiving-week performance is important to watch

    Why stocks’ Thanksgiving-week performance is important to watch

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    While the U.S. trading week is shortened by the Thanksgiving holiday, it’s important to watch the stock market’s performance to see if the rally of the past month can be sustained through the year-end. 

    Stocks have rallied in November so far, with the S&P 500 index SPX logging a 8.6% gain month-to-date, while it’s up 18.6% so far this year, according to FactSet data. 

    “If…

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  • S&P 500 futures stall near four-month highs as traders eye Nvidia earnings

    S&P 500 futures stall near four-month highs as traders eye Nvidia earnings

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    U.S. stock futures on Tuesday showed the November rally stalling ahead of results from AI chipmaker Nvidia.

    How are stock-index futures trading

    On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA rose 204 points, or 0.58%, to 35151, the S&P 500 SPX increased 33 points, or 0.74%, to 4547, and the Nasdaq Composite COMP gained 159 points, or 1.13%, to 14285.

    What’s driving markets

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  • Argentina stocks and bonds surge after Milei’s victory. Can the party continue?

    Argentina stocks and bonds surge after Milei’s victory. Can the party continue?

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    Argentina stocks surged and bonds rallied following news that radical libertarian economist Javier Milei will become Argentina’s next president after an unexpected electoral win.  

    But investors have their doubts that the initial market moves can be sustained.

    In his campaign, Milei, who is known for brandishing a chainsaw at rallies, outlined…

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  • Stock market surges toward 2023 high. Will holiday shoppers put it over the top?

    Stock market surges toward 2023 high. Will holiday shoppers put it over the top?

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    U.S. stocks have jumped back near to their summertime highs, a big rebound as investors enter the holiday season with Black Friday just days away.

    The shopping frenzy expected on Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, kicks off a spending spree for the holidays that could help buoy stocks after their surge this month.

    “With consumers employed…

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  • Market Snapshot – MarketWatch

    Market Snapshot – MarketWatch

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    Dow closes at 3-month high as investors weigh data on retail sales, inflation

    U.S. stocks closed higher Wednesday, building on the previous session’s blockbuster rally sparked by subdued inflation data that bolstered hopes for an economic soft landing that would see the Federal Reserve reduce borrow…

    Nov. 15, 2023 at 4:34 p.m. ET

    by William Watts

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