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  • S&P 500 eyes record high as interest rate cut hopes underpin sentiment

    S&P 500 eyes record high as interest rate cut hopes underpin sentiment

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    U.S. stock index futures were hovering around their highs of the year and just shy of record levels as investors continued to revel in an expected loosening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in 2024 amid a ‘soft landing’ for the U.S. economy.

    How are stock-index futures trading

    • S&P 500 futures
      ES00,
      +0.05%
      rose 3 points, or less than 0.1% to 4796

    • Dow Jones Industrial Average futures
      YM00,
      +0.01%
      added 10 points, or less than 0.1% to 37688

    • Nasdaq 100 futures
      NQ00,
      +0.02%
      were unchanged at 16940

    On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    rose 1 points, or 0%, to 37306, the S&P 500
    SPX
    increased 21 points, or 0.45%, to 4741, and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    gained 91 points, or 0.62%, to 14905.

    What’s driving markets

    The S&P 500 was set to open Tuesday’s session only about 1% below its record close as traders remained energized by the prospect of the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates by the spring of next year.

    Some Fed officials in recent days pushed back against the market’s hopes for lower borrowing costs as early as March, but equity investors seem to have shrugged off those comments, for now.

    Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan on Tuesday reminded traders that an important spigot of cheap money still remains open. The BOJ left its main interest rate at minus 0.1%, and in the accompanying news conference, Governor Kazuo Ueda provided little evidence he was minded to exit the central bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy anytime soon, despite inflation running above its 2% target for 19 consecutive months.

    The Japanese yen
    USDJPY,
    +1.32%
    fell 1.2% and the Nikkei 225 stock index
    JP:NIK
    rose 1.4% as 10-year government bond yields
    BX:TMBMKJP-10Y
    fell 3.6 basis points to 0.634%, the lowest in nearly four months.

    “Whenever central banks take positions that the market thinks are unsustainable, it’s always the currencies that play the role of the canary in the coal mine. No surprise then to see the Yen weakening by around 1% against every major currency overnight as investors vote with their feet,” said Steve Clayton, head of equity funds at Hargreaves Lansdown.

    Traders were also warily eyeing the oil market, after benchmark Brent crude
    BRN00,
    +0.06%
    jumped on Monday following BP’s statement it was halting shipments through the Red Sea, and thus the Suez Canal, because of attack’s by the Houthi in Yemen.

    Many of the world’s biggest shipping companies have said they also will steer clear of the region, prompting concerns about rising costs that may build inflationary pressures.

    “An extended period of disruption in global trade ways should not only sustain energy prices, but also put a renewed pressure on global supply chains and shipping prices,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.

    Read: Attacks in the Red Sea add to global shipping woes

    “The latter is a threat to inflation. Remember, the pandemic-related supply chain disruptions were the major reason that sent inflation to almost 10% in the U.S.,” Ozkardeskaya added.

    However, there was little evidence early Tuesday that investors were overly concerned by that narrative, with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    dipping 2.7 basis points to 3.912%.

    U.S. economic updates set for release on Tuesday include November housing starts and building permits at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

    Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is due to speak at 12:30 p.m.

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  • How Fed rate moves could impact different sectors of the stock market in 2024

    How Fed rate moves could impact different sectors of the stock market in 2024

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    Wall Street seems to agree that U.S. stocks will climb to fresh record highs in 2024. But the most important question for investors may still be the direction and speed of interest-rate moves. 

    Rate-sensitive groups of stocks with lackluster fundamentals, such as financials, utilities, staples, “may be able to outperform, at least early in the year,” if one expects interest rates “to come down quickly and permanently,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research.

    But if “one expects a bumpier ride on the rate front,” then stronger groups, like technology and tech-adjacent sectors “should do better,” Colas said in a Monday client note.

    The S&P 500’s utilities, consumer staples and energy sectors have been the worst performing parts of the large-cap benchmark index so far in 2023, according to FactSet data.

    With an over 10% year-to-date decline, the S&P 500’s utilities sector
    XX:SP500.55
    has significantly underperformed the broader index’s
    SPX
    23.6% advance.

    The S&P 500’s best performing information technology sector
    XX:SP500.45
    was up 56.5% for the same period. But its consumer staples
    XX:SP500.30
    and energy
    XX:SP500.10
    sectors have slumped by 2.6% and 4.1% so far this year, respectively, according to FactSet data.

    Utilities and consumer staples are usually considered defensive investment sectors, or “bond proxies,” because they can help investors minimize stock-market losses in any economic downturn. Companies in these sectors usually provide electricity, water and gas, or they sell products and services that consumers regularly purchase, regardless of economic conditions.

    However, utilities and consumer staples stocks were under a lot of pressure this year. A relentless climb in U.S. Treasury yields in October made defensive stocks less attractive compared with government-issued bonds, or money-market funds offering 5%, especially as the economy remained strong, pushing recession expectations out further.

    Colas expects “weaker groups” to catch a stronger tailwind if rates continue to decline.

    See: Markets are declaring victory over inflation for Powell, and that has some economists worried

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    last week booked its biggest weekly decline in a year after the Federal Reserve signaled a pivot to rate cuts in 2024, which helped the S&P 500 score its longest weekly winning streak since 2017.

    The S&P 500’s utilities and consumer staples sectors rose 0.9% and 1.6% last week, respectively, compared with the information technology sector’s 2.5% advance and communication services sector’s
    XX:SP500.50
    0.1% decline, according to FactSet data.

    Earnings growth expectations for each S&P 500 sector in 2024 are indicated below. Sectors to the left of the dotted black line are expected to show better bottom-line results than the S&P 500 as a whole, while those to the right are expected to show weaker earnings growth.

    SOURCE: FACTSET, DATATREK RESEARCH

    Wall Street expects next year to see 11.5% growth in S&P 500 earnings-per-share (EPS), to $244, and 5.5% revenue growth, according to FactSet data.

    However, there is a wide dispersion across S&P 500 sectors. The range goes from 2% revenue and 3% earnings growth for the energy sector, to 9% revenue and 17% earnings growth for the information technology sector, according to data compiled by DataTrek Research.

    “Playing fundamentally weaker sectors therefore assumes even more good news on the rate front,” Colas said, adding that it still is riskier than sticking with “tried and true groups” like technology.

    Moreover, sectors such as utilities, financials and consumer staples are not expected to show 10% earnings growth next year, while health care and big tech-dominated groups like communication services, technology and consumer discretionary, are expected to show much better than average revenue and earnings growth in 2024, said Colas, citing FactSet data. 

    U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    building on its all-time high set last week. The S&P 500 gained 0.5% and the Dow Industrials closed fractionally higher. The Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    finished up 0.6%, according to FactSet data.

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  • Fed could be the Grinch who 'stole' cash earning 5%. What a Powell pivot means for investors.

    Fed could be the Grinch who 'stole' cash earning 5%. What a Powell pivot means for investors.

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    Yields on 3-month
    BX:TMUBMUSD03M
    and 6-month
    BX:TMUBMUSD06M
    Treasury bills have been seeing yields north of 5% since March when Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse ignited fears of a broader instability in the U.S. banking sector from rapid-fire Fed rate hikes.

    Six months later, the Fed, in its final meeting of the year, opted to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%, a 22-year high, but Powell also finally signaled that enough was likely enough, and that a policy pivot to interest rate cuts was likely next year.

    Importantly, the central bank chair also said he doesn’t want to make the mistake of keeping borrowing costs too high for too long. Powell’s comments helped lift the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    above 37,000 for the first time ever on Wednesday, while the blue-chip index on Friday scored a third record close in a row.

    “People were really shocked by Powell’s comments,” said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist, at PGIM Fixed Income. Rather than dampen rate-cut exuberance building in markets, Powell instead opened the door to rate cuts by midyear, he said.

    New York Fed President John Williams on Friday tried to temper speculation about rate cuts, but as Tipp argued, Williams also affirmed the central bank’s new “dot plot” reflecting a path to lower rates.

    “Eventually, you end up with a lower fed-funds rate,” Tipp said in an interview. The risk is that cuts come suddenly, and can erase 5% yields on T-bills, money-market funds and other “cash-like” investments in the blink of an eye.

    Swift pace of Fed cuts

    When the Fed cut rates in the past 30 years it has been swift about it, often bringing them down quickly.

    Fed rate-cutting cycles since the ’90s trace the sharp pullback also seen in 3-month T-bill rates, as shown below. They fell to about 1% from 6.5% after the early 2000 dot-com stock bust. They also dropped to almost zero from 5% in the teeth of the global financial crisis in 2008, and raced back down to a bottom during the COVID crisis in 2020.

    Rates on 3-month Treasury bills dropped suddenly in past Fed rate-cutting cycles


    FRED data

    “I don’t think we are moving, in any way, back to a zero interest-rate world,” said Tim Horan, chief investment officer fixed income at Chilton Trust. “We are going to still be in a world where real interest rates matter.”

    Burt Horan also said the market has reacted to Powell’s pivot signal by “partying on,” pointing to stocks that were back to record territory and benchmark 10-year Treasury yield’s
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    that has dropped from a 5% peak in October to 3.927% Friday, the lowest yield in about five months.

    “The question now, in my mind,” Horan said, is how does the Fed orchestrate a pivot to rate cuts if financial conditions continue to loosen meanwhile.

    “When they begin, the are going to continue with rate cuts,” said Horan, a former Fed staffer. With that, he expects the Fed to remain very cautious before pulling the trigger on the first cut of the cycle.

    “What we are witnessing,” he said, “is a repositioning for that.”

    Pivoting on the pivot

    The most recent data for money-market funds shows a shift, even if temporary, out of “cash-like” assets.

    The rush into money-market funds, which continued to attract record levels of assets this year after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, fell in the past week by about $11.6 billion to roughly $5.9 trillion through Dec. 13, according to the Investment Company Institute.

    Investors also pulled about $2.6 billion out of short and intermediate government and Treasury fixed income exchange-traded funds in the past week, according to the latest LSEG Lipper data.

    Tipp at PGIM Fixed Income said he expects to see another “ping pong” year in long-term yields, akin to the volatility of 2023, with the 10-year yield likely to hinge on economic data, and what it means for the Fed as it works on the last leg of getting inflation down to its 2% annual target.

    “The big driver in bonds is going to be the yield,” Tipp said. “If you are extending duration in bonds, you have a lot more assurance of earning an income stream over people who stay in cash.”

    Molly McGown, U.S. rates strategist at TD Securities, said that economic data will continue to be a driving force in signaling if the Fed’s first rate cut of this cycle happens sooner or later.

    With that backdrop, she expects next Friday’s reading of the personal-consumption expenditures price index, or PCE, for November to be a focus for markets, especially with Wall Street likely to be more sparsely staffed in the final week before the Christmas holiday.

    The PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and it eased to a 3% annual rate in October from 3.4% a month before, but still sits above the Fed’s 2% annual target.

    “Our view is that the Fed will hold rates at these levels in first half of 2024, before starting cutting rates in second half and 2025,” said Sid Vaidya, U.S. Wealth Chief Investment Strategist at TD Wealth.

    U.S. housing data due on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week also will be a focus for investors, particularly with 30-year fixed mortgage rate falling below 7% for the first time since August.

    The major U.S. stock indexes logged a seventh straight week of gains. The Dow advanced 2.9% for the week, while the S&P 500
    SPX
    gained 2.5%, ending 1.6% away from its Jan. 3, 2022 record close, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    The Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP
    advanced 2.9% for the week and the small-cap Russell 2000 index
    RUT
    outperformed, gaining 5.6% for the week.

    Read: Russell 2000 on pace for best month versus S&P 500 in nearly 3 years

    Year Ahead: The VIX says stocks are ‘reliably in a bull market’ heading into 2024. Here’s how to read it.

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  • 'Smidcap' companies are becoming a big deal. Here's a look at some of the best.

    'Smidcap' companies are becoming a big deal. Here's a look at some of the best.

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    The stocks of long-neglected small companies are finally showing signs of life as the market rally broadens. But these tiny companies still remain vastly undervalued. So, they are one of the best buys in the stock market right now.

    Small- and medium-cap companies, or smidcaps, have not been this cheap since the Great Financial Crisis 15 years ago. “Smidcaps relative to large caps look very attractive,” says says portfolio manager Aram Green, at the ClearBridge Select Fund LBFIX, which specializes in this space.  “Over the long term you will be rewarded.” 

    Green is worth listening to because he is one of the better fund managers in the smidcap arena. ClearBridge Select beats both its midcap growth category and Morningstar U.S. midcap growth index over the past five- and 10 years, says Morningstar Direct. This is no easy feat, in a mutual fund world where so many funds lag their benchmarks. 

    The timing for smidcap outperformance seems about right, since these stocks do well coming out of recessions. Technically, we have not recently had a recession. But there was an economic slowdown in the first half of the year, and the U.S. did have an earnings recession earlier this year. So that may count. 

    To get smidcap exposure, consider the funds of outperforming managers like Green, and if you want to throw in some individual stocks, Green is a great guide on how to find the best names in this space. 

    I recently caught up with him to see what we can learn about analyzing smidcaps. Below are four tactics that contribute to his fund’s outperformance, with nine company examples to consider.  

    1. Look for an entrepreneurial mindset: Green’s background gives him an edge in investing. He’s an entrepreneur who co-founded a software company called iCollege in 1997. It was bought out by BlackBoard in 2001. He knows how to understand innovative trends, identify a good idea, secure capital and quickly ramp up a business. This experience gives him a “private market mindset” that helps him pick stocks to this day. 

    “Founder-run companies regularly outperform.”

    Green looks for managers with an entrepreneurial mindset. You can glean this from company calls and filings, but it helps a lot to meet management — something most individual investors cannot do. But Green offers a shortcut, one which I regularly use, as well. Look for companies that are run by founders. This will give you exposure to managers with entrepreneurial spirit. 

    Here, Green cites the marketing software company HubSpot
    HUBS,
    +0.79%    ,
    a 1.9% fund position as of the end of the third quarter. It was founded by Massachusetts Institute of Technology college buddies Brian Halligan and Dharmesh Shah. They’re on the company’s board, and Shah is chief technology officer. 

    Academic studies confirm founder-run companies regularly outperform. My guess is this is because many founders never lose the entrepreneurial spirit, no matter how easy it would be to quit and sip Mai Tai’s on a beach after making a bundle.  

    In the private market, Green cites Databricks, a data management and analytics company with an AI angle. This competitor of Snowflake
    SNOW,
    -0.92%
    is likely to go public in 2024. If you feel like an outsider because you lack access to private market investing, note that Green says he typically buys more exposure to private companies on the initial public offering (IPO), and then in the market.  “We like to spend time with them when they are private so we can pounce when they are public,” Green says.

    2. Look for organic growth: When companies make acquisitions their stocks often decline, and for good reason. Managers make mistakes in acquisitions because they overestimate “synergies.” Or they get wrapped up in ego-enhancing empire building. 

    “We favor entrepreneurial management teams that do not make a lot of acquisitions to grow, but use their resources to develop new products to keep extending the runway,” says Green. 

    Here, he cites ServiceNow
    NOW,
    +2.62%    ,
    which has grown by “extending the runway” with new offerings developed internally. It started off supporting information technology service desks, and has expanded into operations management of servers and security, onboarding employees, data analytics, and software that powers 911 emergency call systems. Green obviously thinks there is a lot more upside to come, given that this is an overweight position, at 4.6% of the portfolio (the fund’s biggest holding).

    Green also puts the “Amazon.com of Latin America” MercadoLibre
    MELI,
    +0.17%
    in this category, because it continues to expand geographically and in areas such as logistics and payment systems. “They have really morphed into a fintech company,” Green says. He puts HubSpot and the marketing software company Klaviyo
    KVYO,
    -5.73%
    in this category, too. 

    3. Look for differentiated business models: Green likes companies with offerings that are special and different. That means they’ll take market share, and face minimal competition. They’ll also enjoy pricing power. “This leads to high margins. You don’t have someone beating you up on price,” he says. 

    Green cites the decking company Trex
    TREX,
    +0.10%    ,
    which offers composite decking and railing made from recycled materials. This gives it an eco-friendly allure. Compared to wood, composite material lasts longer and requires less maintenance. It costs more up front but less over the long term. Says Green: “The alternative decking market has taken about 20% of the market and that can get to 50%.”

    Of course, entrepreneurs notice success, and try to imitate it. That’s a risk here. But Trex has an edge in its understanding of how to make the composite material. It has a strong brand. And it is building relationships with big-box retailers Home Depot and Lowe’s. These qualities may keep competitors at bay. 

    4. Put some ballast in your portfolio: Green likes to keep the fund’s portfolio balanced by sector, size, and business dynamic. So the portfolio includes the food distributor Performance Food Group
    PFGC,
    -1.69%    .
    The company is posting mid-single digit sale growth, expanding market share and paying down debt. Energy drinks company Monster
    MNST,
    -0.85%
    also offers ballast. Monster’s popular product line up helps the company to take share and enjoy pricing power, Green says.

    It’s admittedly unusual to see a food companies in a portfolio loaded with high-growth tech innovators. But for Green, it’s all part of the game plan. “Rapid growth, disrupting businesses are not going to work year in year out. There are times they fall out of favor, like 2022. So, having that balance is important because it keeps you invested in the equity market.” 

    In other words, keeping some ballast means you’re less likely to get shaken out by sharp declines in high-growth and high-beta tech innovators when trouble strikes the market.

    Michael Brush is a columnist for MarketWatch. At the time of publication, he owned AMZN, TSLA and MELI. Brush has suggested AMZN, TSLA, NOW, MELI, HD and LOW in his stock newsletter, Brush Up on Stocks. Follow him on X @mbrushstocks

    More: Nvidia, Disney and Tesla are among 2023’s buzziest stocks. Can they continue to sizzle in 2024?

    Also read: Presidential election years like 2024 are usually winners for U.S. stocks

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  • Dow nabs 3rd straight record close, S&P has longest weekly win streak in 6 years

    Dow nabs 3rd straight record close, S&P has longest weekly win streak in 6 years

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    U.S. stocks closed mostly higher Friday, with major U.S. equity indexes booking a seventh straight week in the green in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.

    The S&P 500 saw its longest weekly winning streak since November 2017, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    How stock indexes traded

    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA
      rose 56.81 points, or 0.2%, to close at a record 37,305.16.

    • The S&P 500
      SPX
      was about flat, slipping less than 0.1%, to finish at 4,719.19

    • The Nasdaq Composite
      COMP
      gained 52.36 points, or 0.4%, to end at 14,813.92.

    What drove markets

    U.S. stocks finished mostly higher Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average logging a third straight record close.

    Equities broadly rallied this week after investors digested a closely watched reading on U.S. inflation as well as the Federal Reserve’s latest policy statement and projections on interest rates. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each logged a seventh straight week of gains.

    The “more optimistic tone of markets over the last several weeks has been justified,” Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise Financial, said in a Friday phone call. It’s “reasonable” for the stock market to be pricing in rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024, with the recent drop in 10-year Treasury yields helping to lift equities, he said.  

    Price said he’s expecting the Fed may begin cutting rates in June and the U.S. economy will slow to a “sustainable” pace of growth in 2024. In his view, real gross domestic product may rise 1.8% to 1.9% next year.

    Nearly all of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors finished with gains this week, while small-capitalization stocks saw a stronger rally than large-cap equities.

    The small-cap Russell 2000 index
    RUT
    posted a weekly gain of around 5.6%, FactSet data show. The S&P 500 rose around 2.5% this week.

    At his press conference on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave “a nod” that inflation was on the right path and lower rates were on the horizon next year, according to Price. But when it comes to the federal-funds futures, Price said that traders appear to have gotten “too far ahead” in their bets on rate cuts.

    Fed-funds futures pointed to the central bank starting to reduce its benchmark rate as soon as March, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

    Stocks hit a speed bump in Friday’s trading session after New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams pushed back against those rate expectations during an interview with CNBC. “We aren’t really talking about cutting interest rates right now,” Williams said.

    Inflation, as measured by the consumer-price index, slowed to a year-over-year rate of 3.1% in November, down significantly from last year’s peak of 9.1% in June.  But “it’s too early to call ‘mission accomplished’ just yet” for the Fed’s goal of bringing inflation down to its 2% target, said Price.

    Still, Powell was explicit during his press conference about not needing a recession to cut rates, according to Nationwide’s chief of investment research Mark Hackett. “That was code for a soft landing,” Hackett said by phone Friday. 

    See: Williams says the Fed isn’t ‘really talking about cutting interest rates right now’

    On the economic news front Friday, the New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey showed U.S. manufacturing activity continued to struggle as the gauge tumbled to a four-month low. Flash services and manufacturing PMIs from S&P affirmed that manufacturing activity remained weak, while services activity reached a five-month high.

    Read: U.S. economy posts steady but lackluster growth at year’s end, S&P finds

    Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    fell 31.7 basis points this week to 3.927%, the largest weekly drop since November 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    The S&P 500 ended Friday about flat, but just 1.6% below its record close, reached Jan. 3, 2022.

    “The momentum in the market is undeniably incredibly strong right now,” said Nationwide’s Hackett, though on Friday investors appeared to be taking “a natural break.”

    Companies in focus

    • Palantir Technologies Inc. shares
      PLTR,
      -0.05%
      slipped about 0.1% on Friday after the company announced an extension to a U.S. Army contract.

    • Steel Dynamics Inc.’s shares
      STLD,
      +4.52%
      jumped 4.5% after the company reported earnings, making it one of the S&P 500’s best performers in Friday’s trading session.

    • Costco Wholesale Corp. shares
      COST,
      +4.45%
      climbed around 4.5% after reporting fiscal first-quarter earnings and revenue largely in line with expectations following the market’s close on Thursday, and announced a special dividend of $15 a share.

    • JD.com
      JD,
      +4.46%
      gained 4.5% as fresh stimulus out of China helped boost shares of companies based in the world’s second-largest economy. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s stock
      BABA,
      +2.76%
      rose 2.8%.

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  • Oil prices post first weekly gain in 8 weeks amid ship attacks in Red Sea

    Oil prices post first weekly gain in 8 weeks amid ship attacks in Red Sea

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    Oil futures fell on Friday, but finished off the session’s lows to eke out a gain for the week — the first for U.S. and global benchmark crude prices in eight weeks.

    Attacks on ships traveling through the Red Sea, blamed on Yemen’s Houthi rebels, raised the potential for disruptions to the transport of oil and other goods, providing some support for prices.

    Oil saw larger declines early Friday after a Federal Reserve official walked back dovish comments made earlier this week by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell, helping to strengthen the U.S. dollar.

    Price action

    • West Texas Intermediate crude for January
      CL00,
      +0.49%

      CL.1,
      +0.49%

      CLF24,
      +0.49%
      declined by 15 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $71.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with prices ending 0.3% higher for the week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    • February Brent crude
      BRN00,
      +0.52%

      BRNG24,
      +0.52%      ,
      the global benchmark, fell 6 cents, or nearly 0.1%, to $76.55 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, settling 0.9% higher for the week.

    • January gasoline
      RBF24,
      -0.16%
      added 0.9% to $2.14 a gallon, up almost 4.3% for the week, while January heating oil
      HOF24,
      +0.20%
      climbed 1.1% to $2.62 a gallon on Nymex, marking a weekly rise of 1.5%.

    • Natural gas for January delivery
      NGF24,
      -0.88%
      gained 4.1% to $2.49 per million British thermal units, but still logged a weekly loss of 3.5%.

    Price support

    Danish shipping company A.P. Moeller-Maersk
    MAERSK.A,
    +7.52%
    said it will pause all of its container shipments through the Red Sea until further notice and detour them around Africa, Reuters and Bloomberg reported Friday, amid rising risks to its fleet posed by Houthi militants.

    The Red Sea is “one of the hot pockets of seaborne crude flows,” accounting for approximately 10% of global volume, said Manish Raj, managing director at Velandera Energy Partners. “Although the attackers lack sophistication … shipping crews are even less sophisticated, making them easy targets.” 

    A potential blockage of the Red Sea route would be “chaotic indeed, but not nearly as detrimental as blockage of [the] Strait of Hormuz near Iran, for which there is no viable alternative,” Raj said.

    Read from the AP: How are Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea affecting global trade?

    For now, there is concern over higher insurance costs for these ships, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group.

    “With ships in the Red Sea continuing to be at high risk, ‘it won’t take that much for the market’ to see oil prices spike if an oil tanker should be hit.”


    — Phil Flynn, Price Futures Group

    Obviously, the risk to oil supply is large, although “so far, most of the attacks have been on cargo ships and not oil-related ships,” Flynn told MarketWatch.

    However, as ships in the Red Sea continue to be at high risk, “it won’t take that much for the market” to see oil prices spike if an oil tanker is hit, Flynn said.

    For the week, both U.S. and global benchmark crude prices posted gains.

    “The combination of lower U.S. inventories, stronger economic data, and improved OPEC compliance [with production cuts] for the month of November were the highlights of the week,” said Peter McNally, global head of sector analysts at Third Bridge.

    “However, there are ongoing seasonal challenges that forced OPEC to sustain production cuts through the first quarter of 2024, so it remains to be seen if they have done enough to prevent inventories from continuing their upward trend,” he said.

    Read The Year Ahead: Why oil may not see a return $100 a barrel in 2024

    Price pressures

    Oil had been trading lower early Friday after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams told CNBC that it is “premature” to discuss whether it is time to cut interest rates. “We aren’t really talking about cutting interest rates right now,” Williams said.

    That ran contrary to Powell’s comments Wednesday that Fed officials were starting to discuss when to cut rates.

    After the euphoria in the U.S. stock market over the Powell “pivot party” on Wednesday, we got a “wake-up call” from Williams when he pushed back on market expectations for a March rate cut, Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said in market commentary.

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  • This is what we can expect to see from meme stocks in 2024

    This is what we can expect to see from meme stocks in 2024

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    It may be a couple of years since the meme-stock feeding frenzy hit its heights, but we’re still seeing occasional bursts of meme-like activity in number of stocks.

    No discussion of meme stocks would be complete without OG AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.
    AMC,
    -0.89%    .
    But while the movie theater chain and original meme stock darling still grabs plenty of attention, it no longer fits the bill of a meme stock, according to Alicia Reese, VP of equity research at Wedbush. “AMC has seemingly lost its meme status, its share price having come crashing back down to earth over the past several months, particularly since its APE fold-in and reverse stock split,” she said. “AMC is now trading at a more normalized valuation, even if still at the high-end of its pre-meme historic range.”

    AMC’s shares ended Friday’s session at $6.65, a far cry from their high of $393.63 on June 2, 2021, during the meme-stock frenzy.

    Related: AMC’s stock falls more than 5% after company completes $350 million equity offering

    “AMC’s premium valuation here is driven in part by a sub-section of the shareholders it gained during its meme stage, who have remained loyal to the company and have long claimed to be AMC shareholders for life,” Reese added. “AMC shed all the rest of its meme-era shareholders and are now left with the lifers, along with some institutional shareholders now that valuation has come back to a more normalized range.”

    The analyst thinks that in 2024, AMC will continue to issue pre-authorized shares to pay down its high-debt balance, as evidenced by the $350 million equity offering completed this week. “The company is focused on right-sizing the balance sheet, while attempting to maintain strong relations with the AMC lifers still propping up the stock,” said Reese.

    Fellow original meme stock GameStop has also been in the news recently, with the company’s board of directors approving a new investment policy, which lets the company invest in equity securities, among other investments. The board also gave Chairman and Chief Executive Ryan Cohen the authority to manage the investment portfolio. The new policy was dubbed “alarming” and “inane” by Wedbush Managing Director Michael Pachter.

    “If he can invest in anything – farmland, chicken feed, cryptocurrency – that’s not in the best interests of the shareholders,” he told MarketWatch. “Heaven knows what he will do.”

    Related: GameStop’s plan to buy stocks with company cash ‘alarming’ and ‘inane,’ analyst says

    As for GameStop, the analyst describes the videogame retailer as a declining business, pointing to the company’s third-quarter revenue of $1.078 billion, which was down from $1.186 billion in the prior year’s quarter. “They are shrinking, period, and they can’t save their way to prosperity,” he added.

    The company’s new investment policy could also fuel more meme-style activity, according to Pachter, who says that Cohen’s moves will be closely watched. “He will invest in something and it will possibly become the next meme stock,” the analyst told MarketWatch. 

    Pachter pointed to Cohen’s decision in 2022 to unload his huge stake in beleaguered home goods retailer and sometime meme stock Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. just months after buying it. In August of that year Cohen sold his entire stake in Bed Bath & Beyond five months after accruing the stake in an activist campaign, amassing a profit of more than $58 million.

    Stocktwits, a social platform for investors and traders, told MarketWatch that it has seen a dedicated core audience of retail investors stick with the likes of AMC and GameStop. “Message volume and sentiment have remained elevated on the platform throughout the year, with their audiences growing temporarily around earnings or other events that create volatility,” Tom Bruni, senior writer at Stocktwits, told MarketWatch.

    Related: Small-cap Chinese stocks spark meme-like buzz

    Retail traders are still on the lookout for high-volatility situations, according to Bruni, who cited the example of Vietnamese electric vehicle stock VinFast Auto Ltd.
    VFS,
    +13.54%    ,
    which had a “crazy month” in August before crashing back down. “However, we would note that there have been fewer instances of these types of meme stocks occurring this year, and their lifespan tended to be pretty short,” he added.

    “For stocks with the ‘meme’ potential in 2024, look to beaten-down areas of the market that already have strong retail investor communities around them,” Bruni told MarketWatch. “Several that stick out are electric vehicle stocks (specifically startups), solar stocks, or anything China-related. Traders will likely be looking for stocks at the intersection of these themes, like Lucid Group ($LCID), as potential ‘powder kegs’ for volatility in 2024.”

    Shares of Lucid Group Inc.
    LCID,
    -7.20%
    are down 30.2% in 2023, compared with the S&P 500 index’s
    SPX
    gain of 22.9%.

    One thing is for sure – the social media dynamics that created the meme stock phenomenon are not going away. “Internet culture will continue to be more prevalent in markets as the world becomes more digitized and young people age into participation,” Tommy Tranfo, head of community at Stocktwits, told MarketWatch. “Crypto markets are an area where we expect to see a large concentration of this activity, particularly within the context of a crypto bull market, which will likely bring in a new wave of market participants who will skew toward the internet culture demo.”

    Related: This EV company has a bigger market cap than Ford or GM. But you may not have heard of it.

    “New crypto meme communities such as the $BONK (a dog-themed coin on the Solana blockchain) are already clear examples of this craze taking place,” he added.

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  • Home Page – MarketWatch

    Home Page – MarketWatch

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    S&P flash U.S. services index rises to 51.3 in December from 50.8

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    Jeffry Bartash

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  • Chaotic 'triple witching' set for Friday, as $5.3 trillion in options expire

    Chaotic 'triple witching' set for Friday, as $5.3 trillion in options expire

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    Options contracts tied to more than $5 trillion worth of stocks, exchange-traded funds and indexes are set to expire on Friday as the latest “triple witching” expiration event collides with the rebalancing of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100.

    The result could be a high-octane, and potentially extremely volatile, session where tens of billions of contracts and shares could change hands, market strategists said.

    According to figures from Rocky Fishman, founder of Asym500, options with a notional value of $5.3 trillion are set to expire, with the biggest slug expiring ahead of the open.

    ASYM50

    On one side, many traders will be cashing in bullish bets that are deep in the money, while some roll their positions, forcing market-makers to continue to hedge their exposure.

    At the same time, managers of index-tracking funds will need to finish adjusting their holdings before the announced index changes take effect.

    Already, trading volume has been trending higher all week. In the U.S. market, 17 billion shares changed hands on Thursday, according to Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers, during a phone interview with MarketWatch. That is up from 10.6 billion on Tuesday.

    “I expect to see enormous volumes tomorrow in a lot of popular names,” Sosnick said.

    “Not only will this one be the largest option expiration of the year (as is typical for December), but it is currently set up to become the largest SPX option expiration in more than a decade,” Fishman said in a report shared with MarketWatch.

    Brent Kochuba, founder of Spotgamma, an options-market analytics provider, went even further during a phone interview with MarketWatch: “This might be the biggest options expiration ever.”

    ASYM50

    As markets have rallied, traders have been scooping up bullish options contracts at a record pace, according to data from Cboe Global Markets, the biggest operator of options exchanges in the U.S.

    For S&P 500-linked options, typically the most popular product, 4.8 million contracts changed hands on Thursday, according to Cboe, a new record, surpassing the previous record from Nov. 14.

    Also, total call-trading volume for all U.S. equity options exceeded 30 million contracts on Wednesday, according to Goldman Sachs Group, making it one of the busiest days for trading in bullish contracts this year.

    Aggressive call-buying over the past month has helped push the S&P 500 to just shy of its record closing high, options-market experts said. The S&P 500
    SPX
    gained 8.9% in November, its best month of 2023, and the 18th best-performing month of the past 73 years. And it has continued to climb in December, having risen 3.3% through Thursday’s close, according to FactSet data.

    Earlier this week, options strategists warned that markets might run into trouble at 4,600 on the S&P 500. They warned that a “call wall” of open-interest in bullish contracts around that level could force market makers to put the breaks on the rally.

    Instead, bullish traders blew through the call wall, pushing it higher to 4,700, said Kochuba.

    The S&P 500 closed at 4,719.55 on Thursday, its highest close since Jan. 12, 2022, according to FactSet data. The index is now sitting within 1.75 percentage points of its record closing high of 4,796.56 on Jan. 3, 2022.

    Traders’ bullishness recently helped push the Cboe Volatility Index
    VIX,
    otherwise known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” to multiyear lows, according to FactSet data.

    To be sure, it isn’t just S&P 500 options and contracts tied to popular stocks like Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    +4.91%
    seeing explosive volume: Calls tied to the iShares Russell 2000 ETF
    IWM,
    which tracks the small-cap Russell 2000, hit 1.35 million contracts, the third-highest ever, according to Goldman. Activity in options contracts linked to small-cap stock indexes has surged since late October.

    Heavy call buying has pushed the put-call skew for S&P 500 options to its lowest level in a year, according to data from Goldman Sachs Group.

    This shows that investors have been scrambling to buy bullish contracts, while largely shunning bearish ones, as stocks marched higher. Goldman analysts described Friday as “the last major liquidity event of the year” in a note to clients obtained by MarketWatch.

    GOLDMAN SACHS

    “Triple Witching” days happen once a quarter. They are thusly named because options tied to single stocks, ETFs and indexes will expire, alongside index-tracking futures contracts. Options-market experts say they are typically associated with more intraday swings and higher trading volume.

    Making things even more interesting is the fact that the quarterly rebalancing of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 is due to take effect after markets close on Friday.

    Normally routine, this quarter’s rebalancing is drawing outsize attention following an extremely rare ad hoc rebalancing over the summer to rein in the influence of megacap stocks in the Nasdaq-100.

    Earlier this month, Standard & Poor’s announced its rebalancing plans, which included reducing the weighting of two Magnificent Seven stocks, Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +0.08%
    and Alphabet Inc.
    GOOG,
    -0.57%

    GOOGL,
    -0.48%    .
    At the same time, Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    -0.95%    ,
    which is also part of the Mag 7, will see its weighting increased. Meanwhile, three companies will join the index, including Uber Inc.
    UBER,
    +0.86%    ,
    while shares of three other companies depart.

    Kochuba believes Friday’s expiration could remove the last barrier holding stocks back from rocketing to record highs before the end of the year.

    “After OpEx, markets will be able to move more freely,” Kochuba said.

    Garrett DeSimone of OptionMetrics cautioned that investors shouldn’t place too much weight on options-market activity and other technical factors.

    “At the end of the day, macro trumps everything,” he said during an interview with MarketWatch.

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  • Powell surprises with dovish turn; economists mull how many Fed rate cuts in '24

    Powell surprises with dovish turn; economists mull how many Fed rate cuts in '24

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    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell startled economists with a press conference Wednesday that was viewed as much more dovish than expected.

    It was “12 doves a-leaping,” said Michael Feroli, U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase.

    “The Fed can’t believe its luck. The data is going their way,” said Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI.

    The first dovish signals came in the Fed’s statement and economic forecasts at 2 p.m. Eastern. First, the Fed penciled in three rate cuts in 2024 instead of two that were projected in September. The Fed also softened its tightening bias by saying they were mulling the need for “any” more hikes.

    Then, half an hour later at his press conference, “Chair Powell did nothing to undo the impression of those signals,” said Feroli, in a note to clients. Powell said Fed officials were starting to discuss when to cut rates.

    “The question of when it will be appropriate to begin dialing back the policy restraint” was clearly “a discussion for us at out meeting today,” Powell said. Fed officials think the Fed is “likely at or near the peak rate for this cycle.”

    While Powell didn’t take rate cuts “off the table,” they are “collecting dust,” said Michael Gregory, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

    Markets reacted with the 10-year Treasury yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    falling to 4.025%.

    Traders in derivative markets now see an 80% chance of the first rate cut in March, and now see five quarter-point cuts next year.

    Matt Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, said the main thing learned from Wednesday’s press conference was that Fed Gov. Chris Waller’s dovish comments a few weeks ago were a reflection of the mainstream view at the central bank, rather than a dovish outsider.

    In a speech late last month, Waller raised the possibility of a rate cut by spring if inflation keeps slowing.

    Some economists think that March is too soon for a rate cut.

    “We still judge rate cuts will commence later rather than sooner, still by the end of the third quarter of 2024,” Gregory of BMO Capital Markets said.

    Feroli said he now sees the first rate cut in June, instead of his prior forecast of July, and predicted that the Fed will cut five times by the end of 2024.

    Luzzetti of Deutsche Bank sees six rate cuts next year, but not beginning until June as the economy falls into a mild recession.

    The Fed doesn’t forecast a recession. Its rate cuts are purely a story of weakening inflation. If there is a recession, the Fed will cut very fast, Luzzetti said.

    Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said the odds of a recession are lower now that the Fed has signaled it will actively take steps to try to avoid one.

    The Fed wants the economy to cruise at a lower altitude, and no longer wants a landing, Swonk said in an interview.

    That is a 180-degree turn from Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo., in the summer of 2022 when he spoke for less than 10 minutes but warned of “pain” and the unfortunate costs of fighting inflation. That speech, “a bucket of ice water,” Swonk said, sent the stock market reeling at the time.

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  • S&P 500's year-end rally lifts 51 stocks to a record close

    S&P 500's year-end rally lifts 51 stocks to a record close

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    It has been a record day for 10% of the S&P 500.

    A group of 51 stocks in the benchmark equity index swept to record finishes on Tuesday, the most since April 20, 2022, according to a tally from Dow Jones Market Data.

    It was a record day for 51 stocks in the S&P 500.


    Dow Jones Market Data

    Stocks that logged a record close on Tuesday included Allstate Corp
    ALL,
    +0.90%    ,
    Costco Wholesale
    COST,
    +0.90%    ,
    D.R. Horton, Inc.
    DHI,
    +0.65%    ,
    Mastercard
    MA,
    +1.21%    ,
    T-Mobile US Inc.,
    TMUS,
    +1.00%
    Visa Inc.
    V,
    +1.19%
    and Waste Management Inc.,
    WM,
    +1.85%
    among others.

    Equities have been in a year-end rally mode, driven higher by tumbling benchmark yields that finance much of the U.S. economy and expectations of coming interest-rate cuts.

    The 10-year Treasury rate
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    fell to 4.2% on Tuesday from a high of about 5% in October.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    on Tuesday ended at its third-highest level on record, while the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    and Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP
    added to a string of new closing highs for 2023. The Dow finished 0.6% away from its record close logged almost two years ago, while the S&P 500 was only 3.2% below its close from the same period, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    The push higher for stocks followed inflation data for November that showed price pressures continued to ease from peak levels, but still were above the Fed’s 2% annual target.

    The consumer-price index pegged the annual rate of inflation at 3.1%, down from 3.2% in October, with the “last mile” of inflation expected to be the hardest part to tame.

    Investors now will be focused on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. Short-term interest rates are expected to remain unchanged at a 22-year high, but the central bank is expected to update its “dot plot” forecast of rates over a longer time horizon.

    “Although the market will focus on the timing of rate cuts, we suspect Chair Powell will be keen to strike notes of caution to avoid financial conditions easing too much further to ensure the Fed continues to see encouraging progress on inflation,” said Emin Hajiyev, senior economist at Insight Investment, in emailed comments.

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  • U.S. stocks open mixed as investors weigh fresh data on inflation

    U.S. stocks open mixed as investors weigh fresh data on inflation

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    U.S. stocks opened mixed on Tuesday as investors weighed a reading on inflation that was largely in line with economists’ forecasts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.35%
    was up less than 0.1% soon after the opening bell, while the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.07%
    slipped 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    +0.07%
    fell 0.1%, according to FactSet data, at last check. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday that inflation, as measured by the consumer-price index, rose 0.1% in November for a year-over-year rate of 3.1%. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast that inflation would be unchanged in November while rising at an annual pace of 3.1%. So-called core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, climbed 0.3% last month to increase 4% in the 12 months through November. That was in line with economists’ expectations. In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    4.234%
    was up one basis point at around 4.24%, according to FactSet data, at last check.

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  • U.S. stocks open mostly lower as investors look ahead to inflation data, Fed policy meeting

    U.S. stocks open mostly lower as investors look ahead to inflation data, Fed policy meeting

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    U.S. stocks opened mostly lower on Monday, after six straight weeks of gains, as investors look ahead to inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.17%
    was up 0.2% soon after the opening bell, while the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.03%
    shed 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -0.27%
    fell 0.4%, according to FactSet data, at last check. A reading on November inflation, as measured by the consumer-price index, will be released on Tuesday. The following day, the Fed will release a statement on its monetary policy, after concluding its two-day meeting. Last week, all three major U.S. stock benchmarks closed at their highest levels of the year, with the S&P 500 finishing Friday at its highest value since March 29, 2022.

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  • This week's Fed meeting could slam brakes on year-end stock rally

    This week's Fed meeting could slam brakes on year-end stock rally

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    The rally lifting U.S. stocks to fresh 2023 highs in the year’s home stretch could be at risk if the Federal Reserve on Wednesday crushes expectations for interest-rate cuts in 2024. 

    U.S. central bankers and investors haven’t exactly been seeing eye-to-eye about when the Fed will start easing its monetary policy, according to Melissa Brown, senior principal of applied research at Axioma. 

    Traders also have been flip-flopping on their forecasts for rate cuts over the past few months, based on fed-funds futures data.


    Oxford Economics/Bloomberg

    Given the whipsaw of recent volatility, it isn’t hard to imagine a jittery market backdrop as investors wait to hear from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday, even though the central bank isn’t expected to change its range for short-term interest rates. Since July, the Fed funds rate rate has been at a 22-year high in a 5.25% to 5.5% range.

    U.S. stocks advanced this year after a bruising 2022, adding big gains in November, as benchmark 10-year Treasury yields
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    tumbled from a 16-year high of 5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    closed on Friday only 1.5% away from its record close nearly two years ago. The S&P 500 index
    SPX
    booked its highest finish since March 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Year Ahead: The VIX says stocks are ‘reliably in a bull market’ heading into 2024. Here’s how to read it.

    “I don’t see any report on the horizon that would really make them [the Fed] change their stance on where we are on monetary policy,” said Alex McGrath, chief investment officer at NorthEnd Private Wealth. It is mostly the expectation of Fed rate cuts next year that have supported stock and bond markets rallies recently, he said.

    The Dow Jones closed 9.4% higher on the year through Friday, the S&P 500 was up 19.9% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 37.6% for the same period, according to FactSet data. 

    “We have been a little skeptical of the market’s excitement over rate cuts early next year,” said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research.

    It takes a gradual process for the Fed to move away from its monetary policy tightening, Clissold told MarketWatch. The Fed is likely to pivot its tone from being very hawkish to neutral, remove the tightening bias, and then talk about rate cuts, noted Clissold.

    The bond market on Friday already was again flashing signs of a potential rethink by investors about the path of interest rates in 2024.

    Junk bonds
    JNK

    HYG,
    often a canary in the coal mine for markets, hit pause on a rally that started in late October as benchmark borrowing costs fell, even though the sector has benefited from big inflows of funds in recent weeks.

    Treasury yields for 10-year and 30-year
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
    bonds also shot higher Friday, echoing volatility that took hold in mid-October. 

    Read: Investors have fought a 2-year battle with the bond market. Here’s what’s next.

    Mike Sanders, head of fixed income at Madison Investments, has been similarly cautious. “I think the market is a little too aggressive in terms of thinking that cuts are going to occur in March,” Sanders said. It is more likely that the Fed will start cutting rates in the second half of next year, he said. 

    “I think the biggest thing is that the continued strength in the labor market continues to make the services inflation stickier,” Sanders said. “Right now we just don’t see the weakness that we need to get that down.” 

    Friday’s U.S. employment report adds to his concerns. About 199,000 new jobs were created in November, the government said Friday. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast 190,000 jobs. The report also showed rising wages and a retreating unemployment rate to a four-month low of 3.7% from 3.9%.

    The U.S. central bank will likely “try their best to push back on the narrative of cuts coming very soon,” Sanders said. That could be accomplished in its updated “dot plot” interest rate forecast, also due Wednesday, which will provide the Fed’s latest thinking on the likely path of monetary policy. The Fed’s update in September surprised some in the market as it bolstered the central bank’s stance of higher rates for longer. 

    There’s still a chance that inflation will reaccelerate, Sanders said. “The Fed is worried about the inflation side more than anything else. For them to take the foot off the brake sooner, it just doesn’t do them any good.”

    Ahead of the Fed decision, an inflation update is due Tuesday in the November consumer-price index, while the producer-price index is due Wednesday. 

    Still, seasonality factors could aid the stock market in December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average in December rises about 70% of the time, regardless of whether it is in a bull or bear market, according to historical data. 

    See: Stock market barrels into year-end with momentum. What that means for December and beyond.

    “The overall market outlook remains constructive,” said Ned Davis’s Clissold. “A soft landing scenario could support the bull market continuing.”

    Last week the Dow eked out a gain of less than 0.1%, the S&P 500 edged up 0.2% and the Nasdaq rose 0.7%. All three major indexes went up for a sixth straight week, with the Dow logging its longest weekly winning streak since February 2019, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

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  • Mortgage rates' dip to 7% could be brief if jobs market stays strong, Fannie Mae economist says

    Mortgage rates' dip to 7% could be brief if jobs market stays strong, Fannie Mae economist says

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    November’s sharp pullback in 30-year fixed mortgage rates may not last if the labor market remains strong, said Mark Palim, deputy chief economist at Fannie Mae.

    Palim was speaking to the robust jobs report released on Friday, showing the U.S. added 199,000 jobs in November and that wages rose, albeit with the figures somewhat inflated by the return of striking workers from the auto industry and from Hollywood.

    Homebuyers can benefit from a robust labor market and the near 80 basis point decline in mortgage rates since the end of October, Palim said. But if the “labor markets remain this strong, we believe the pace of mortgage rate declines will likely not continue in the near term or may partially reverse,” he said in a statement.

    The benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate was edging down to 7.05% on Friday, after surging to nearly 8% in October, according to Mortgage Daily News.

    Optimism around the potential for falling mortgage costs to thaw home sales helped lift shares of Toll Brothers Inc.,
    TOL,
    +1.86%
    and a slew of other homebuilders tracked by the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF, 
    XH,
    to record highs earlier this week, even while investors in some homebuilder bonds have been sellers in recent weeks.

    Yields on 10-year
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    and 30-year Treasury notes
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
    were up sharply Friday, to about 4.23% and 4.32%, respectively, but still below the highs of about 5% in October. The surge in long-term borrowing costs was stoked by tough talk by Federal Reserve officials about the need to keep rates higher for longer to bring inflation down to a 2% annual target.

    Read: Solid job growth, sharp wage gains sends Treasury yields up by the most in months

    U.S. stocks were up Friday afternoon, shaking off earlier weakness following the jobs report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    was 0.2% higher, further narrowing the gap between its last record close set two years ago, the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    and the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP
    also were up 0.2%, according to FactSet data.

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  • Krispy Kreme has launched in Paris — and is already in trouble with the mayor's office

    Krispy Kreme has launched in Paris — and is already in trouble with the mayor's office

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    Krispy Kreme has already run into trouble with the deputy mayor of Paris after opening its first store in the French capital this week. 

    The opening saw hundreds of Parisians flock to Krispy Kreme’s
    DNUT,
    +0.31%
    new shop, which occupies a site that previously housed a restaurant run by Michelin-starred chef Alain Ducasse. 

    The North Carolina doughnut purveyor’s arrival in Paris, however, also attracted the ire of Deputy Mayor Emmanuel Grégoire, after the business put up a series of posters on the streets of Paris.

    The Socialist Party politician slammed Krispy Kreme’s poster campaign for “littering the streets,” which he described as “illegal, polluting and costly for the community.” The so-called guerrilla marketing tactic of flyposting is illegal under French law.

    “Prepare to get a big fine!” Grégoire said in response to a tweet celebrating the campaign that read: “Prepare to change your diet with @KrispyKremeFrr.”

    The poster campaign was developed by advertising agency Buzzman Time, which has previously designed marketing campaigns for Burger King and Uber Eats.

    The opening of Krispy Kreme’s Paris store marks the company’s first foray into France, which is now the second-biggest fast-food market in the world.

    The New York–listed company, which was founded in 1937, plans to build 500 doughnut stalls across France over the next five years. Krispy Kreme doughnuts are currently available in 38 countries, including Cambodia, Myanmar and Kazakhstan. Its 379 locations in the U.S. are in 41 states and the District of Columbia.

    According to its most recent financial results, Krispy Kreme generated $407 million in revenue in the third quarter of 2023, a 7.9% increase over the previous year. 

    Krispy Kreme and Buzzman Time have not responded to a request by MarketWatch for comment.

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  • U.S. stocks end higher after job report, and Dow scores longest weekly winning streak since February 2019

    U.S. stocks end higher after job report, and Dow scores longest weekly winning streak since February 2019

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    U.S. stocks closed higher Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average scoring its longest weekly winning streak since February 2019, as investors digested the latest job report.

    How stock indexes traded

    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA
      rose 130.49 points, or 0.4%, to close at 36,247.87, its highest closing value since Jan. 12, 2022.

    • The S&P 500
      SPX
      gained 18.78 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 4,604.37, marking its highest close since March 29, 2022.

    • The Nasdaq Composite
      COMP
      climbed 63.98 points, or 0.4%, to end at 14,403. 97, scoring its highest closing value since April 4, 2022.

    For the week, the Dow eked out a gain of less than 0.1%, the S&P 500 edged up 0.2% and the Nasdaq advanced 0.7%. All three major indexes rose for a sixth straight week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    What drove markets

    U.S. stocks ended higher Friday as investors parsed a stronger-than-expected job report.

    The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday that the economy added 199,000 jobs in November, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.7% from 3.9%. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast that 190,000 jobs would be added in the month.

    “It’s nice to see that a soft landing still can take place,” Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management, said by phone Friday. But the market had been getting “too optimistic” about potential interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the early part of next year, he added.

    The job report is “perhaps a wash” for markets as “average hourly earnings growth came in a little on the high side,” Ma said. That could contribute to inflationary pressures and push a Fed pivot on rate cuts further out in 2024 than markets were expecting. 

    “The Fed can probably be patient for a while,” he said. Fed Chair Jerome Powell may “strike a bit more of a hawkish tone” after the central bank’s monetary-policy meeting next week, potentially pushing back against some of the enthusiasm for earlier rate cuts, Ma said.

    Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in November, up 4% year over year, the job report shows.

    “Even though the headline 199,000 new jobs created is just slightly above consensus estimates for 190,000 new positions, the lower unemployment rate of 3.7%, coupled with higher-than-expected average hourly earnings, caused a jump higher in Treasury yields,” Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, said in emailed comments.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    climbed 11.5 basis points Friday to 4.244%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That’s below its high this year of about 5% in October.

    Meanwhile, the stock market’s so-called fear gauge remained low, with the CBOE Volatility Index
    VIX
    declining to 12.35 on Friday, FactSet data show.

    See: The VIX says stocks are ‘reliably in a bull market’ heading into 2024. Here’s how to read it.

    In other economic data released Friday, the University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment rose to a preliminary reading of 69.4 in December, its first increase in five months. Inflation expectations also moderated, the university’s survey of consumer sentiment showed.

    Such a big swing for a single reading of the survey is unusual, said Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist who now runs a consulting business. “These data usually don’t move like that,” she said during a phone interview with MarketWatch.

    Next week’s economic calendar will include a reading on U. S. inflation from the consumer-price index as well as the outcome of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting, scheduled to conclude Dec. 13.

    Meanwhile, the S&P 500 notched a sixth straight week of gains, its longest such winning streak since the stretch ending Nov. 15, 2019, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average logged its longest stretch of weekly gains since February 2019.

    Companies in focus

    Steve Goldstein contributed.

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  • Consumer sentiment jumps in early December for the first increase in five months

    Consumer sentiment jumps in early December for the first increase in five months

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    This is a developing story. Stay tuned for updates here.

    The numbers: The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment rose to a preliminary December reading of 69.4 from a six-month low of 61.3 in the prior month. This is the highest level since August.

    Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected a December reading of 62.4.

    Expectations of inflation cooled in early December, according to the report.

    Americans think inflation will average a 3.1% rate over the next year, down from 4.5% in the prior month. That’s the lowest level since March 2021.

    Expectations for inflation over the next five years fell to 2.8% from 3.2% in November, which was the highest reading in over a decade.

    Key details: According to the report, a gauge of consumers’ views on current conditions jumped to 74 in December from 68.3 in the prior month, while a barometer of their expectations of the future rose to 66.4 from 56.8.

    Big picture: A lot of factors were behind the increase in confidence, with the solid job market and declining gasoline prices mentioned most often by economists. Stock prices have also been strong. Despite the gains, sentiment is still well below prepandemic levels.

    Market reaction: Stocks
    DJIA

    SPX
    were higher in early trading on Friday, while the 10-year Treasury yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    rose to 4.21% after the solid job report was released earlier in the morning.

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  • November's rally just erased two months of Fed tightening, economist says

    November's rally just erased two months of Fed tightening, economist says

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    Financial conditions are now looser than in September, says economist

    Financial conditions in the U.S. are looser than in September, says economist.


    Getty Images

    The feel-good tone gripping markets in the home stretch of 2023 may not be what the Federal Reserve had penciled in for the holidays.

    The stock market in December, once again, has been knocking on the door of record levels, driven by optimism about easing inflation and potential Fed rate cuts next year.

    But while the prospect of double-digit equity gains this year would be a reprieve for investors after a brutal 2022, the latest rally also points to looser financial conditions.

    Ultimately, the risk of looser financial conditions is that they could backfire, particularly if they rub against the Fed’s own goal of keeping credit restrictive until inflation has been decisively tamed.

    Read: Inflation is falling but interest rates will be higher for longer. Way longer.

    Specifically, the November rally for the S&P 500 index
    SPX
    can be traced to the 10-year Treasury yield
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    dropping to 4.1% on Thursday from a 16-year peak of 5% in October.

    Falling 10-year Treasury yields from a 5% peak in October coincides with a sharp rally in the S&P 500 at the tail end of 2023.


    Oxford Economics

    The Fed only exerts direct control over short-term rates, but 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields
    BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
    are important because they are a peg for pricing auto loans, corporate debt and mortgages.

    That makes long-term rates matter a lot to investors in stocks, bonds and other assets, since higher rates can lead to rising defaults, but also can crimp corporate earnings, growth and the U.S. economy.

    Michael Pearce, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, thinks the November rally may put Fed officials in a difficult spot ahead of next week’s Dec. 12 to 13 Federal Open Market Committee meeting — the eighth and final policy gathering of 2023.

    “The decline in yields and surge in equity prices more than fully unwinds the tightening in conditions seen since the September FOMC meeting,” Pearce said in a Thursday client note.

    The Fed next week isn’t expected to raise rates, but instead opt to keep its benchmark rate steady at a 22-year high in a 5.25% to 5.5% range, which was set in July. The hope is that higher rates will keep bringing inflation down to the central bank’s 2% annual target.

    Ahead of the Fed’s July meeting, stocks were extending a spring rally into summer, largely driven by shares of six meg-cap technology companies and AI optimism.

    From June: Nvidia officially closes in $1 trillion territory, becoming seventh U.S. company to hit market-cap milestone

    Rates in September were kept unchanged, but central bankers also drove home a “higher for longer” message at that meeting, by penciling in only two rate cuts in 2024, instead of four earlier. That spooked markets and triggered a string of monthly losses in stocks.

    Pearce said he expects the Fed next week to “push back against the idea that rate cuts could come onto the agenda anytime soon,” but also to “err on the side of leaving rates high for too long.”

    That might mean the first rate cut comes in September, he said, later than market odds of a 52.8% chance of the first cut in March, as reflected by Thursday by the CME FedWatch Tool.

    Stocks were higher Thursday, poised to snap a three-session drop. A day earlier, the S&P 500 closed 5.2% off its record high set nearly two years ago, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    was 2% away from its record close and the Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP
    was almost 12% below its November 2021 record, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Related: What investors can expect in 2024 after a 2-year battle with the bond market

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  • Americans pinched as electricity costs hit all-time highs

    Americans pinched as electricity costs hit all-time highs

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    Electricity rates in the U.S. soared to all-time highs in September, with Americans facing the sting of higher energy bills.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a spike to $0.171 per kilowatt-hour in September, presenting a harsh reality against the backdrop of a seemingly robust economy. While costs moderated to $0.169 per kilowatt-hour in October, industry experts point to a web of causes including geopolitical tensions, global pandemics, and green energy transitions which indicate that the days of stable, low-cost electricity might be fading and a new reality may be emerging.

    As households gear up for winter, there’s cautious optimism for a slight respite in electricity costs. A recent downtick in natural gas prices—a key determinant of electricity rates—hints at a potential but modest decrease in upcoming electric bills.

    Newsweek’s previous analysis of Energy Information Administration (EIA) data indicates that while a 2 percent reduction in residential electricity rates is projected, stemming from a 14 percent year-over-year drop in wholesale natural gas prices, consumers should still brace for relatively high energy expenses.

    That’s because the complexity of the energy market means that lower fuel costs don’t always equate to lower electricity rates for consumers, according to experts. Deloitte’s 2024 power and utility industry outlook analysis paints a picture of an industry grappling with the costs of modernizing the grid and transitioning to green energy, pointing to a 1.9 percent overall increase in retail electricity prices by the end of the year.

    The Federal Reserve’s warning of a ‘higher for longer’ interest rate environment aimed at curbing inflation resonates within the energy sector. Capital expenditures have surged to a record-breaking nearly $171 billion in 2023 for the most significant electric and gas utilities, according to Deloitte, indicating a trend that may not reverse soon.

    As interest rates climb, the cost of borrowing increases, which can ripple through the economy, affecting utilities and, by extension, electricity rates.

    These higher borrowing costs come at a time when utilities are investing heavily to modernize and transition towards more sustainable energy sources, meaning a return to prices that electricity enjoyed over the 2010s may not happen anytime soon because “much of the increase over time is due to inflation and has often lagged inflation,” Jim Thomson, U.S. Power, Utilities & Renewables leader at Deloitte Consulting, explained to Newsweek.

    That lag indicates that while consumers may be feeling the immediate sting of higher prices, the energy sector and the utility companies that monetize it might be contending with the rising costs for a longer period. Thomson said that in the short term, “utilities will likely continue to face high costs as they modernize and decarbonize the electric grid.”

    Why Did Costs Increase in the First Place?

    The decade-long stability of electricity prices that consumers enjoyed for years was upended in 2022 when a confluence of factors caused the price spike. A surge in natural gas prices, fueled by lower production and amplified by geopolitical tensions stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, played a key role, Thomson told Newsweek. Additionally, Thomson said the energy sector was not insulated from the pandemic’s inflationary effects and supply chain disruptions, which drove up costs.

    Will I Have High Electric Bills Forever?

    There is light at the end of the tunnel. “Some of these factors are subsiding,” Thomson explained, “and since regulated utilities are required to pass cost decreases through to customers as well as cost increases, some customers could see lower bills in the coming year.”

    The U.S. Power Utilities & Renewables leader told Newsweek that as the industry increasingly turns to renewable sources like wind and solar, which are not fuel-reliant, the potential for moderating costs emerges. “Over time, as the share of electricity generated by renewables such as wind and solar continues to grow, it could tend to moderate costs since those energy sources do not use fuel, and those savings would be passed on to customers,” he noted.

    He remains optimistic about the long-term impact of renewable energy, adding, “As the energy transition progresses, households that electrify their energy use by replacing fossil-fueled cars, heating systems, and other appliances with EVs, heat pumps and electric appliances could potentially see as much as a 40 percent decrease in household energy bills by 2045.”

    A young lady sits at her kitchen table at home checking over the household bills. Experts say that high energy costs may be the new norm as the industry grapples with the costs of modernizing the grid.
    In Pictures Ltd./Corbis via Getty Images