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Kingfisher cuts guidance after profit fall, launches £371.6 million buyback
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Kingfisher cuts guidance after profit fall, launches £371.6 million buyback
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Bottles of olive oil and sunflower oil at a Mercadona SA supermarket in Barcelona, Spain.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Olive oil prices spiked to fresh records as severe droughts in major producing countries crimp supplies — and drive up thefts in cooking oil.
Global prices for olive oil surged to $8,900 per ton in September, driven by “extremely dry weather” in the Mediterranean, according to a recent report by the United States Department of Agriculture. Already, the average price in August was 130% higher compared to the year before, and showed “no sign of easing,” USDA said.
Spain, the world’s largest producer and exporter of olive oil, has been battered by an intense drought for months. The country also just recorded its third hottest summer, with the average summer temperature 1.3°C higher than normal, according to state meteorological agency AEMET.
Further complicating matters is Turkey’s decision to suspend bulk olive oil exports… The suspension has worsened the already limited volumes in Spain.
Kyle Holland
oilseeds and vegetable oils analyst at Mintec
According to data from commodity market intelligence firm Mintec, Spain’s olive oil production in the recent season has slumped to around 610,000 tonnes — that’s a drop of more than 50% compared to the usual 1.3 to 1.5 million tonnes.
“Adding to the complexity of the situation are concerns about reduced production in other major European olive oil-producing countries, including Italy and Greece, where drought conditions prevail,” Mintec’s oilseeds and vegetable oils analyst, Kyle Holland, told CNBC.
Greece and Italy are the second and third largest producers of olive oil, according to the International Olive Council, an intergovernmental organization made up of members that make up more than 98% of olive production globally.
Prices of olive oil in Spain’s Andalusia soared to €8.45 ($9.02) per kilogram in September, Mintec’s benchmark showed. It marks the “highest price ever recorded for Spanish olive oil” based on the company’s data spanning over 20 to 30 years, and represents a year-on-year jump of 111%.
The soaring prices, on what’s sometimes referred to as “liquid gold,” have led some to steal it.
About 50,000 liters of extra virgin olive oil in one of Spain’s oil mills, Marin Serrano El Lagar, were stolen in the early hours of Aug. 30, according to local media reports. That’s more than €420,000, or about $450,000, worth of olive oil that the family business lost. There have been no arrests so far.
That’s not all.
Shortly before that, thieves made off with 6,000 liters of extra virgin olive oil worth €50,000 from Terraverne oil mill, Spanish newspaper El Munco said. The company’s computers, tables, fans and chairs were also reportedly looted during the heist.
The companies in question did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
And there’s no respite in sight.
Mintec’s Holland cautioned that if stocks of olive oil continue to be depleted by the drought, supplies could be exhausted before October, where the fresh harvests usually arrive.
“Further complicating matters is Turkey’s decision to suspend bulk olive oil exports,” said the analyst. “The suspension has worsened the already limited volumes in Spain.”
Turkey, which is also a significant olive oil producer, has suspended bulk exports until Nov. 1, a move resulting from the global surge in prices.
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Washington, DC
CNN
—
US retail sales picked in August, boosted by higher gas prices, as spending on other items grew modestly.
Retail sales, which are adjusted for seasonal swings but not inflation, rose 0.6% in August, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. That’s a slightly faster pace than July’s revised 0.5% gain, and marks the fifth straight month of growth. It’s also well above economists’ expectation of a 0.2% increase.
The increase was largely driven by spending at gas stations, which advanced 5.2% last month. Spiking oil prices due to OPEC+ production cuts, strong demand and disruption from a deadly flood in Libya have pushed up prices at the pump. The national average for regular gasoline stood at $3.86 a gallon on Thursday, according to AAA, the highest level in 10 months.
Excluding sales at gasoline stations, retail spending advanced a more modest 0.2% in August from July.
Retail spending increased across most categories, including at restaurants and grocery stores. Sales of furniture and at specialty stores, such as those that sell sporting goods, fell 1% and 1.6% respectively. Online retail sales in August were flat, after jumping in July due to Amazon’s Prime Day promotional event.
Despite 11 interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve intended to cool demand, the US economy remains on strong footing, with American shoppers still doling out cash thanks to a strong job market.
But after a summer of robust spending, US consumers are facing a number of economic challenges for the rest of the year, including student loan payments restarting and tougher lending standards, which could curb spending.
“Fitch continues to view the consumer as relatively healthy, supported by low unemployment and somewhat declining goods inflation,” wrote David Silverman, senior director at Fitch Ratings, in an analyst note.
However, he noted that “headwinds are emerging,” citing lower consumer savings and the resumption of student loan payments this fall.
The US economy is widely expected to cool in the coming months, and since consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic output, a weaker economy typically means softer spending. But economists don’t expect a recession this year. While Goldman Sachs recently reduced its bet of a US recession, the Wall Street bank still thinks there’s a 15% chance of an economic downturn.
The job market is also expected to slow, which would include softer wage growth. That could prompt US consumers to pump the brakes on their spending.
“Slowing labor market gains and softer disposable income growth in the coming months will likely mean ongoing consumer cautiousness. And it appears that consumers are already taking note,” wrote Lydia Boussour, senior economist at EY-Parthenon, in a note.
However, if inflation slows in the months ahead, that could actually maintain economic activity, since it means consumers have regained some spending power.
“Encouragingly, falling inflation should continue to provide a tailwind to real wages and avoid a retrenchment in consumer activity,” Boussour added.
The Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% in August from a year earlier, up from July’s 3.2% rise, largely due to higher gas prices. Economists still expect inflation to cool later in the year, despite volatile energy markets. But gasoline prices are highly visible indicators of inflation, so more pain at the pump could also dampen consumers’ attitudes.
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Central bankers like to focus on core inflation readings, which strip out food and energy prices, but that doesn’t mean that they, or investors, will be able to ignore a renewed surge in crude-oil prices.
In a Thursday note, DataTrek Research observed that the correlation between energy prices and the core reading of the consumer-price index has returned to levels seen in the 1970s and 1980s. It stands at 0.62 since 2020, compared with an average of 0.68 in those prior decades, and well above its long-run average of 0.31. A reading of 1.0 would mean the measures were moving in perfect lockstep. (See table below.)
Core measures of inflation typically strip out volatile items like food and energy. While that often leads to eye-rolling by commentators who note that food and energy make up a big chunk of what consumers spend money on, the logic behind the move holds that such items are less responsive to monetary policy.
Policy makers put more emphasis on the core reading for a better read on what they can influence. The core personal-consumption expenditures, or PCE, index, for example, is often described as the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation indicator.
But that doesn’t mean rising energy or food prices can be ignored. Energy, after all, is an input, and can have an influence on overall prices.
“Recent data says energy prices hold more sway on core inflation than any time since the 1970s/1980s, so rising oil prices are a legitimate concern for both the Fed and capital markets. Food inflation fits the same bill,” said DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas in the note.
Oil prices have been on a tear this summer, with the rally accelerating after Saudi Arabia announced earlier this week it would extend a production cut of 1 million barrels a day through the end of the year, with Russia also pledging to extend a supply cut.
West Texas Intermediate crude
CL00,
the U.S. benchmark, extended a winning streak to nine days on Wednesday, while Brent crude
BRN00,
the global benchmark, rose for a seventh straight day. Both grades ended at 2023 highs Wednesday before pulling back modestly in the Thursday session.
The surge in crude threatens to further drive up fuel prices, including gasoline and diesel.
And rising oil prices this week got a chunk of the blame from investors and analysts for a pickup in Treasury yields as market participants began to pencil in a longer stretch of higher interest rates — or weighed the possibility the Fed may need to deliver more monetary tightening. That’s also contributed to a rise in the U.S. dollar, with the ICE U.S. Dollar Index
DXY,
a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, hitting a six-month high.
U.S. stocks have weakened in the face of rising yields, with technology and growth shares, which are particularly rate-sensitive, leading the way lower. The Nasdaq Composite
COMP
was on track for a 2% decline so far this holiday-shortened week, while the S&P 500
SPX
has pulled back 1.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
has lost 1%.
“With oil prices rising again, we got to wondering about the spillover effects of this move on inflation. Will pricier crude derail recent disinflationary trends?” Colas wrote.
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Oil futures settled higher on Wednesday, with U.S. prices posting a ninth consecutive climb — the longest streak of daily gains since early 2019.
Prices for U.S. and global benchmark crude futures marked fresh settlement highs for the year so far, following the recent extension of supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
“Saudi…
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U.S. stocks closed lower Tuesday after the long Labor Day weekend, as bond yields and oil prices climbed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA shed about 195 points, or 0.6%, ending near 34,642, according to preliminary FactSet data. The S&P 500 index SPX dropped about 0.4% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP fell 0.1%. Investors returned from the long weekend in a less bullish mood on weaker economic data from China and Europe, but also with more clouds on the horizon in oil markets. Oil prices CL00 closed at the highest level since November on Tuesday, after Saudi Arabia and Russia opted to extend oil supply production…
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A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. Not a subscriber? You can sign up right here. You can listen to an audio version of the newsletter by clicking the same link.
New York
CNN
—
Labor Day — one of the busiest driving holidays in the US — is on the horizon, and so is Hurricane Idalia. That’s potentially bad news for gas prices.
The storm, which is expected to make landfall in Florida as a Category 3 hurricane on Wednesday, could bring 100 mile-per-hour winds and flooding that extends hundreds of miles up the east coast. The impact could take gasoline refinery facilities offline and may limit some Gulf oil production and supplies. Plus, demand for gas is expected to surge as residents of the impacted areas evacuate.
“Idalia… could pose risk to oil and gas output in the US Gulf,” wrote the Nasdaq Advisory Services Energy Team.
The storm is expected to make landfall as drivers nationwide load into their vehicles for the Labor Day weekend, pushing up the demand for gasoline even further.
All together it means the price of oil and gasoline could remain elevated well into the fall.
Generally, summer demand for oil tends to wane in September, but so does supply as refineries shift from summer fuels to “oxygenated” winter fuels, said Louis Navellier of Navellier and Associates. Since the 1990s, the US has required manufacturers to include more oxygen in their gasoline during the colder months to prevent excessive carbon monoxide emissions.
With the storm approaching, that trend may not play out.
What’s happening: Gas prices are already at $3.82 a gallon. That’s the second highest price for this time of year since at least 2004, according to Bespoke Investment Group. (The only time the national average has been higher for this period was last summer, when prices hit $3.85 a gallon).
Geopolitical tensions have been supporting high oil and gas prices for some time. Recently, increased crude oil imports into China, production cuts by Russia and Saudi Arabia and extreme heat set off a late-summer spike in gas prices. And the threat of powerful hurricanes could send them even higher.
Analysts at Citigroup have warned that this hurricane season could seriously impact power supplies.
“Two Category 3 or higher hurricanes landing on US shores could massively disrupt supplies for not weeks but months,” Citigroup analysts wrote in a note last week. In 2005, for example, gas prices surged by 46% between Memorial Day and Labor Day because of the landfall of Hurricane Katrina, according to Bespoke.
What it means: The Federal Reserve and central banks around the world have been fighting to bring down stubbornly high inflation for more than a year. This week we’ll get some highly awaited economic data: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, is due out on Thursday. But the task of inflation-busting is a lot more difficult when energy prices are high, and it’s even harder when they’re on the rise.
The PCE price index uses a complicated formula to determine how much weight to give to energy prices each month, but they typically comprise a significant chunk of the headline inflation rate.
“Crude oil price remains elevated, even after the surge at the start of the Russia-Ukraine War,” said Andrew Woods, oil analyst at Mintec, a market intelligence firm. “Energy prices have been a major contributor to persistently high inflation in the US, so the crude oil price will remain a watch-out factor for future inflation.”
High oil and gas prices are one of the largest contributing factors to inflation. That’s bad news for drivers but tends to be great for the energy industry, as oil prices and energy stocks are closely interlinked.
Energy stocks were trading higher on Monday. The S&P 500 energy sector was up around 0.75%. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was 0.85% higher, BP (BP) was up 1.36% and Chevron (CVX) was up 0.75%.
OpenAI, will release a version of its popular ChatGPT tool made specifically for businesses, the company announced on Monday.
OpenAI unveiled the new service, dubbed “ChatGPT Enterprise,” in a company blog post and said it will be available to business clients for purchase immediately.
The new offering, reports my colleague Catherine Thorbecke, promises to provide “enterprise-grade security and privacy” combined with “the most powerful version of ChatGPT yet” for businesses looking to jump on the generative AI bandwagon.
“We believe AI can assist and elevate every aspect of our working lives and make teams more creative and productive,” the blog post said. “Today marks another step towards an AI assistant for work that helps with any task, is customized for your organization, and that protects your company data.”
Fintech startup Block, cosmetics giant Estee Lauder and professional services firm PwC have already signed on as customers.
The highly-anticipated announcement from OpenAI comes as the company says employees from over 80% of Fortune 500 companies have already begun using ChatGPT since it launched publicly late last year, according to its analysis of accounts associated with corporate email domains.
A multitude of leading newsrooms, meanwhile, have recently injected code into their websites that blocks OpenAI’s web crawler, GPTBot, from scanning their platforms for content. CNN’s Reliable Sources has found that CNN, The New York Times, Reuters, Disney, Bloomberg, The Washington Post, The Atlantic, Axios, Insider, ABC News, ESPN, and the Gothamist, among others have taken the step to shield themselves.
American Airlines just got smacked with the largest-ever fine for keeping passengers waiting on the tarmac during multi-hour delays.
The Department of Transportation is levying the $4.1 million fine, “the largest civil penalty that the Department has ever assessed” it said in a statement, for lengthy tarmac delays of 43 flights that impacted more than 5,800 passengers. The flights occurred between 2018 and 2021, reports CNN’s Gregory Wallace.
In the longest of the delays, passengers sat aboard a plane in Texas in August 2020 for six hours and three minutes. The 105-passenger flight had landed after being diverted from the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport due to severe weather, with the DOT alleging that “American (AAL) lacked sufficient resources to appropriately handle several of these flights once they landed.”
Federal rules set the maximum time that passengers can be held without the opportunity to get off prior to takeoff or after landing, at three hours for domestic flights and four hours for international flights. Current rules also require airlines provide passengers water and a snack.
American told CNN the delays all resulted from “exceptional weather events” and “represent a very small number of the 7.7 million flights during this time period.”
The company also said it has invested in technology to better handle flights in severe weather and reduce the congestion at airports.
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A bulldozer moving lithium ore at the Sigma Lithium Xuxa mine near Itinga, Minas Gerais state, Brazil.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The world could face a shortage for lithium as demand for the metal ramps up, with some analysts forecasting that it could come as soon as 2025. Others, however, see a longer time frame before that shortfall hits.
BMI, a Fitch Solutions research unit, was among those that predict a lithium supply deficit by 2025. In a recently published report, BMI largely attributed the deficit to China’s lithium demand exceeding that of its supply.
“We expect an average of 20.4% year-on-year annual growth for China’s lithium demand for EVs alone over 2023-2032,” the report stated.
In contrast, China’s lithium supply will only grow 6% over the same period, BMI said, adding that rate cannot satiate even one third of forecasted demand.
China is the world’s third largest producer of lithium, which is an integral element in electric vehicle batteries.
The world produced 540,000 metric tons of lithium in 2021, and by 2030 the World Economic Forum projects that global demand will reach over 3 million metric tons.
The global battery supply chain may find lithium in shortfall again approaching the end of this decade.
Rystad Energy
Vice President Susan Zou
According to forecasts by S&P Global Commodity Insights, EV sales are set to reach 13.8 million in 2023, but will subsequently proceed to skyrocket to over 30 million by 2030.
“We do fundamentally believe in a shortage for the lithium industry. We forecast supply growth of course, but demand is set to grow at a much faster pace,” said Corinne Blanchard, Deutsche Bank’s director of lithium and clean tech equity research.
By the end of 2025, Blanchard sees a “modest deficit” of around 40,000 to 60,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent, but forecasts a wider deficit amounting to 768,000 tonnes by the end of 2030.
Other analysts don’t see a deficit coming so soon, but still predicted a shortfall by the end of the decade.
While more lithium mines and mining exploration projects coming online could support burgeoning demand, that would only extend the runway for a few more years, according to Rystad Energy’s estimates.
According to the energy research firm, hundreds of lithium projects are currently under exploration, but the complexity in geology and time-consuming permitting process still pose challenges.
There are currently only 101 lithium mines in the world, according to Refinitiv data.
Rystad Energy Vice President Susan Zou estimates that total lithium mine supply will increase by 30% and 40% year on year in 2023 and 2024, and that miners would continue to develop both existing and greenfield projects amid a “global push to electrify transportations.”
While that could point to a global lithium surplus next year, shortages could start to plague supply chains in 2028.
“In the next couple of years, though the lithium supply may stay adequate at a world-level, regional supply imbalance is still inevitable,” Zou added, noting regional mining and processing capacities in the U.S. and Europe might not be able to keep up with demand for EV batteries.
“The global battery supply chain may find lithium in shortfall again approaching the end of this decade when the supply growth might not keep pace with that of the demand,” she said.
In that scenario, Zou said lithium prices could spike to their historic 2022 highs, which in turn would increase battery production costs.
Lithium carbonate prices surged to a record high of almost 600,000 yuan per ton in November 2022, more than 12 times January 2021 prices.
Wood Mackenzie similarly forecasts that the overall lithium market will see a supply surplus in the coming years. However, continued demand growth and very few projects entering production in the early 2030s could mean the market is likely to experience another supply deficit, said the consultancy’s vice president of metals and mining research, Robin Griffin.
“The main risks [are] likely to come from delays in commissioning of new projects and delays in permitting of new assets,” he said.
Lithium mines generally take “10 years or longer” from first discovery to full-fledged lithium operation, Piedmont Lithium’s chief commercial officer, Austin Devaney, told CNBC via e-mail.
“We believe there will eventually be enough lithium to support the demands of electrification. But in the near term, we expect to see the impact of supply constraints on lithium pricing for many years, if not longer,” he said.
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Harayana, India
CNN
—
Satish Kumar sits in front of his submerged rice paddy in India’s Haryana state, looking despairingly at his ruined crops.
“I’ve suffered a tremendous loss,” said the third generation farmer, who relies solely on growing the grain to feed his young family. “I will not be able to grow anything until November.”
The newly planted saplings have been underwater since July after torrential rain battered northern India, with landslides and flash floods sweeping through the region.
Kumar said he has not seen floods of this scale in years and has been forced to take loans to replant his fields all over again. But that isn’t the only problem he’s facing.
Last month, India, which is the world’s largest exporter of rice, announced a ban on exporting non-basmati white rice in a bid to calm rising prices at home and ensure food security. India then followed with more restrictions on its rice exports, including a 20% duty on exports of parboiled rice.
The move has triggered fears of global food inflation, hurt the livelihoods of some farmers and prompted several rice-dependent countries to seek urgent exemptions from the ban.
More than three billion people worldwide rely on rice as a staple food and India contributed to about 40% of global rice exports.
Economists say the ban is just the latest move to disrupt global food supplies, which has suffered from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as weather events such as El Niño.
They warn the Indian government’s decision could have significant market reverberations with the poor in Global South nations in particular bearing the brunt.
And farmers like Kumar say market price rises caused by poor harvests doesn’t result in a windfall for them either.
“The ban is going to have an adverse effect on all of us. We won’t get a higher rate if rice isn’t exported,” Kumar said. “The floods were a death blow to us farmers. This ban will finish us.”

The abrupt announcement of the export ban triggered panic buying in the United States, following which the price of rice soared to a near 12-year high, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.
It does not apply to basmati rice, which is India’s best-known and highest quality variety. Non-basmati white rice however, accounts for about 25% of exports.
India wasn’t the first country to ban food exports to ensure enough supply for domestic consumption. But its move, coming just one week after Russia pulled out of the Black Sea grain deal — a crucial pact that allowed the export of grain from Ukraine — contributed to global concerns about the availability of grain staples and whether millions would go hungry.
“The main thing here is that it is not just one thing,” Arif Husain, chief economist at the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) told CNN. “[Rice, wheat and corn crops] make up bulk of the food which poor people around the world consume.”

Nepal has seen rice prices surge since India announced the ban, according to local media reports, and rice prices in Vietnam are the highest they have been in more than a decade, according to customs data.
Thailand, the world’s second largest rice exporter after India, has also seen domestic rice prices jump significantly in recent weeks, according to data from the Thai Rice Exporters Association.
Countries including Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines, have appealed to New Delhi to resume rice exports to their nations, according to local Indian media reports. CNN has reached out to India’s Ministry of Agriculture but has not received a response.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has encouraged India to remove the restrictions, with the organization’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, telling reporters last month that it was “likely to exacerbate” the uncertainty of food inflation.
“We would encourage the removal of these types of export restrictions because they can be harmful globally,” he said.
Now, there are fears that the ban has the world market bracing for similar actions by rival suppliers, economists warn.
“The export ban is happening at a time when countries are struggling with high debt, food inflation, and declining depreciating currencies,” Husain from the WFP said. “It’s troubling for everyone.”
Indian farmers account for nearly half of the country’s workforce, according to government data, with rice paddy mainly cultivated in central, southern, and some northern states.
Summer crop planting typically starts in June, when monsoon rains are expected to begin, as irrigation is crucial to grow a healthy yield. The summer season accounts for more than 80% of India’s total rice output, according to Reuters.
This year, however, the late monsoon arrival led to a large water deficit up until mid-June. And when the rains finally arrived, it drenched swathes of the country, unleashing floods that caused significant damage to crops.

Surjit Singh, 53, a third generation farmer from Harayana said they “lost everything” after the rains.
“My rice crops have been ruined,” he said. “The water submerged about 8-10 inches of my crops. What I planted (in early June) is gone… I will see a loss of about 30%.”
The World Meteorological Organization last month warned that governments must prepare for more extreme weather events and record temperatures, as it declared the onset of the warming phenomenon El Niño.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean that brings warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures and has a major influence on weather across the globe, affecting billions of people.
The impact has been felt by thousands of farmers in India, some of whom say they will now grow crops other than rice. And it doesn’t just stop there.

At one of New Delhi’s largest rice trading hubs, there are fears among traders that the export ban will cause catastrophic consequences.
“The export ban has left traders with huge amounts of stock,” said rice trader Roopkaran Singh. “We now have to find new buyers in the domestic market.”
But experts warn the effects will be felt far beyond India’s borders.
“Poor countries, food importing countries, countries in West Africa, they are at the highest risk,” said Husain from the WFP. “The ban is coming on the back of war and a global pandemic… We need to be extra careful when it comes to our staples, so that we don’t end up unnecessarily rising prices. Because those increases are not without consequences.”
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The numbers: The import price index rose 0.4% in July, the Labor Department said Tuesday. This is the biggest gain since May 2022.
Economists surveyed by the Wall Street were expecting a 0.2% gain.
Fuel import costs rose 3.6% in July. Higher prices for petroleum and natural gas contributed to the gain.
Excluding…
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Chinese villagers growing rice seedlings in a paddy field in Qiandongnan, Guizhou Province, China on April 2023.
Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty Images
Global rice markets could come under further strain as the world’s leading rice producer China grapples with heavy rain and flood risks.
“Heavy rain in China’s grain-producing north-eastern region that will reduce yields is likely to put upward pressure on already high global rice prices,” Fitch Ratings said in a recent report.
China is the world’s largest producer of rice, and flood alert levels were raised for three provinces that account for 23% of the country’s rice output: Inner Mongolia, Jilin and Heilongjiang, the report pointed out.
The world’s second largest economy has been inundated by devastating floods in recent weeks. Typhoon Doksuri was one of the worst storms to hit northern China in years, with capital Beijing battered by the heaviest rainfall in 140 years.
Fitch pointed out that many key grain production areas in those three provinces were affected by heavy rains and remnants of Typhoon Doksuri, and they’re set to face “another deluge as Typhoon Khanun moves north.”
The resulting soaked grain fields will reduce crop yields for the year, the Fitch report stated, although the full extent of the damage is not yet clear.
“This will lift China’s domestic grain prices and likely drive higher imports in 2H23 to partially offset the potential yield loss,” the credit ratings firm said, adding the country may need to look to import more rice if its own harvests fall short, and that could drive global rice prices even higher.
Global rice prices have surged to their highest in close to 12 years, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization All Rice Price Index.
Other market watchers are estimating higher rice prices ahead after India banned non-basmati white rice exports last month, and Thailand urged farmers to plant less rice in a bid to save water as a result of low rainfall.
India, which accounts for more than 40% of global rice trade, banned exports of non-basmati white rice on July 20, as the government looked to tackle soaring domestic food prices.
Rice prices are hovering at decade highs, with rough rice futures last trading at $15.98 per hundredweight (cwt).
In addition to rice, the Fitch report also cited corn and soybean among major crops grown in Inner Mongolia, Jilin and Heilongjiang, which will be impacted by flood risks. China is expected to import more of both grains this year compared to the last.
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By Will Horner
The International Energy Agency raised its forecast for global oil supplies next year while moderating its demand expectations, pointing to a more balanced oil market that could cap oil prices.
In its monthly market report, the IEA said it expects oil supplies to rise by 1.5 million barrels a day next year, 300,000 barrels a day more than it was expecting last month.
That is as production increases in the U.S., Brazil and Guyana serve to counter production cuts by Russia and Saudi Arabia, undermining those nation’s efforts to support oil prices and boost their oil revenues.
At the same time, the Paris-based intergovernmental organization said it expects oil demand to rise by 1 million barrels a day next year, roughly half the demand growth seen in 2023 and 100,000 barrels a day less than last month’s forecast.
The changes mean that the IEA expects oil demand to exceed supply by a more modest 200,000 barrels a day next year, compared with a 700,000 barrel-a-day deficit in 2023. That could provide relief for economies still struggling with the lingering effects of inflation and prevent a repeat of the sharply higher oil prices that followed the outbreak of war in Ukraine.
Oil producers not part of OPEC+, the alliance between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and a group of Russia-led oil producers, are set to dominate the increase in oil output, challenging the cartel’s control over the oil market and diminishing the ability of major producers such as Saudi Arabia to dictate global oil balances.
“Non-OPEC+ oil supply, now at its highest level ever, nearly matches the OPEC+ alliance barrel-for-barrel and looks set to do so through next year,” the IEA said. “That’s a dramatic change from 2017, when OPEC+ was first established.”
Non-OPEC+ oil producers will pump just under half of all barrels next year, the IEA expects. In 2017, they accounted for just 43% of all oil produced.
The IEA’s forecasts are based on the current agreement of members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, which could easily change in the coming months, the IEA acknowledged.
OPEC+’s largest members and dominant decision makers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, have in recent months sharply slashed their output in an attempt to boost oil prices, cuts which have been periodically extended.
Either nation could at any moment choose to reverse the cuts, though doing so would likely weigh on oil prices and with it their oil income. An oil price war between Moscow and Riyadh in 2020 threatened the end of the OPEC+ alliance and, in an unprecedented event, briefly sent oil prices into negative territory as the two countries raced to increase their output and capture a larger share of the market.
Write to Will Horner at william.horner@wsj.com
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NEW YORK — Simon & Schuster has been sold to the private equity firm KKR, months after a federal judge blocked its purchase by rival publisher Penguin Random House because of concerns that competition would shrink the book market. An executive for KKR is calling the deal a chance to work with “one of the most effective” book publishers.
The private equity giant will buy Simon & Schuster for $1.62 billion in cash, said Paramount Global, the parent company of the storied publishing house. Simon & Schuster will operate as a standalone entity, under the leadership of CEO Jonathan Karp.
“We are delighted,” Karp said Monday. “We will remain an independent company and not only will we continue to thrive, but with the help of KKR we can become even greater.
Paramount, which on Monday reported a loss of $424 million for the three months leading up to June 30, will use sale proceeds to pay down debt. The agreement is subject to government approval, but is unlikely to face the objections raised by the Penguin Random House deal.
Simon & Schuster, where authors include Stephen King, Colleen Hoover and Bob Woodward, is one of the so-called “Big Five” of New York publishing, with others including Penguin Random House, HarperCollins Publishers, Hachette Book Group and Macmillan. HarperCollins, owned by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp, had expressed interest in buying Simon & Schuster.
Simon & Schuster has had strong sales over the past two years, even as the book market has cooled off. The publisher has scheduled some of the most anticipated fall releases, including Britney Spears’ memoir “The Woman In Me” and Walter Isaacson’s biography of Elon Musk.
Richard Sarnoff, chair of media at KKR, praised Simon & Schuster as effective and well run and said that it would retain editorial independence.
“We’re not going to tell them what to buy, what to publish or what not to publish,” said Sarnoff, a former executive at Penguin Random House’s parent company, the German conglomerate Bertelsmann. “There’s a 99-year legacy of editorial independence that we’re going to protect.”
Sarnoff said that no layoffs were planned, and that instead KKR hoped to invest in and expand Simon & Schuster, citing international sales as an area of possible growth. As with other companies that KKR has owned, it plans to give Simon & Schuster employees equity, an arrangement that could give the publisher a competitive advantage. In an industry where starting salaries range from $45,000-$50,000, a source of growing unhappiness among young people trying to afford living in the New York City area, an equity stake could end up being worth half or more of a worker’s annual pay, according to Sarnoff.
“The upside is big,” he said. Sarnoff added that he didn’t know how long KKR would run Simon & Schuster before selling it, although he cited five to seven years as the typical range. “We don’t have a set timeline,” he said.
Employee equity is rare in book publishing, but not unprecedented. W.W. Norton & Company, founded in 1923, has been wholly employee owned for decades.
Late in 2020, Paramount had announced the sale of Simon & Schuster to Penguin Random House for $2.2 billion, a deal that would have made the new company by far the biggest in the U.S. But the Department of Justice, which under the Biden administration has taken a tougher stance on consolidation compared to other recent presidencies, sued to block the sale in 2021.
After a three-week trial in the summer of 2022, with King among those opposing the merger, U.S. District Judge Florence Y. Pan ruled in the government’s favor, saying the DOJ had made “a compelling case that predicts substantial harm to competition.”
Paramount declined to appeal the decision, and instead renewed its efforts to sell Simon & Schuster, which next year marks its centennial. The publisher, founded in 1924 by Richard Simon and Max Schuster, has changed ownership a handful of times since being purchased by Gulf+Western in 1975. Paramount has tried for years to sell the publisher, saying it didn’t fit into the company’s emphasis on video entertainment.
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US. stocks closed lower Friday, capping off a volatile week that finished with losses after Fitch took away its top AAA ratings for the U.S. and government bond yields embarked on a wild ride. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
fell about 150 points, or 0.4% on Friday, ending near 35,065, according to preliminary FactSet data. The S&P 500 index
SPX,
shed 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite Index closed 0.4% lower. For the week, the Dow posted a 1.1% decline, the S&P 500 a 2.3% drop and the Nasdaq shed 2.9% since Monday, according to FactSet. Investors were focused on July jobs data released on Friday for clues to the health of the economy and potential next moves by the Federal Reserve on rates. The 10-year Treasury yield
TMUBMUSD10Y,
swung almost 13 basis points lower on Friday to 4.06%, after briefly climbing to about 4.2% earlier in the week, according to FactSet data.
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Rashtrapati Bhavan, the official residence of the President of India, in New Delhi.
Kriangkrai Thitimakorn | Moment | Getty Images
China’s growth slowdown is set to hurt global commodity demand, but India could make up for some of that shortfall, according to ANZ.
India’s economic growth is likely to outpace China’s, with the South Asian nation set to become the third-largest economy by the end of this decade, the bank predicted.
That means India’s demand for commodities will likely surge, and it could cover more than half of China’s demand shortfall especially in the energy sector, the bank said in a recent report.
“India’s demand for commodities is slated to grow rapidly, supported by favorable demographics, urbanization, the expansion of manufacturing and exports and the build-up of infrastructure,” ANZ analysts wrote.
India has overtaken China to become the most populous country, and according to ANZ’s data, its rate of urbanization is expected to rise to 40% by 2030 from current levels of 35% — stoking demand for industrial metals and energy commodities which are often associated with a rise in demand for infrastructure and manufacturing.
India will scale up its efforts to decarbonize by 2030, but those efforts may be frustrated by the nation’s rapidly growing energy needs…
India’s annual demand for major commodities — like oil, coal, gas, copper, aluminum and steel — is expected to rise collectively by more than 5% from now till 2030, the bank estimated.
In comparison, China’s demand for these same commodities will slow to between 1% to 3%, accompanying a projected GDP slowdown to 3.5% growth by the end of this decade. China’s second-quarter GDP expanded 6.3% year-on-year, falling below market expectations for 7.3% growth.
The pick-up in India’s demand will be most prominent for oil and coal, in line with the country’s heavy oil import dependency at more than 80%, ANZ predicted.
“India will scale up its efforts to decarbonize by 2030, but those efforts may be frustrated by the nation’s rapidly growing energy needs, a significant share of which may still have to be met by fossil fuels,” the analysts wrote.
India’s petroleum product consumption for 2024 is estimated to rise almost 5% from current levels to 233,805 thousand metric tonnes, India’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell projects.
According to ANZ’s counterfactual scenario, even if China’s growth is not slowing, India is estimated to make up for 60% of China’s slack in coal demand in 2030, and 66% for oil.
The Indian government’s increasing emphasis on infrastructure development, energy transition and capex could also mean demand for steel and iron will pick up for the country.
“Metals and bulks may see a strong rise in demand,” the report said.
ANZ said the immense shortfall left by China for steel and aluminum demand may be tougher to fill.
“For aluminum and steel, India’s pick-up of demand left unrealized in China may not be very substantial, simply because the scale of consumption of these items in the latter is very large,” ANZ highlighted.
China consumes more than 50% of global industrial metals and steel production.
While China will continue to retain its status as a behemoth in the commodity markets, India can still be a “significant influencer,” says ANZ.
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Stocks have surged this year without really anything going right, besides the rolling out of error-prone artificial intellligence chatbots. Interest rates have surged to a 22-year high, earnings are down from last year, and pandemic-era savings are being drawn down if not entirely exhausted.
Read more: Those extra pandemic savings are now wiped out, Fed study finds.
Strategists at Bank of America led by Michael Hartnett have an interesting theory.
“Asset price overshoots [are] the new normal,” they say.
Consider:
“AI is simply the new overshoot,” they say.
The S&P 500
SPX,
has gained 18% this year as the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
has rallied by 34%.
Hartnett and team noted that real retail sales — that is, adjusted for inflation — fell at a 1.6% year-over-year clip, which has coincided with recessions since 1967. Real retail sales falls in excess of 3% are associated with hard recessions.
Historically, a 2-3 point rise in the savings rate also is recessionary, and already it’s risen from 3% to 4.6%. The unemployment rate so far hasn’t risen, though a 0.5 point to 1 point rise in the jobless rate also is typically recessionary.
“It would be so ‘2020s’ for the economy to hit a brick wall just as everyone punts ‘soft landing’ into 2024,” they say.
They like emerging market/commodities as summer upside plays and credit and tech as autumn downside plays.
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Editor’s Note: A version of this story appears in CNN’s Meanwhile in the Middle East newsletter, a three-times-a-week look inside the region’s biggest stories. Sign up here.
CNN
—
Moored five miles off the coast of Yemen for more than 30 years, a decaying supertanker carrying a million barrels of oil is finally being offloaded by a United Nations-led mission, hoping to avert what threatened to be one of the world’s worst ecological disasters in decades.
Experts are now delicately handling the 47-year-old vessel – called the FSO Safer – working to remove the crude without the tanker falling apart, the oil exploding, or a massive spill taking place.
Sitting atop The Endeavor, the salvage UN ship supervising the offloading, UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Yemen David Gressly said that the operation is estimated to cost $141 million, and is using the expertise of SMIT, the dredging and offshore contractor that helped dislodge the Ever Given ship that blocked the Suez Canal for almost a week in 2021.
How to remove one million barrels of oil from a tanker
Twenty-three UN member states are funding the mission, with another $16 million coming from the private sector contributors. Donors include Yemen’s largest private company, HSA Group, which pledged $1.2 million in August 2022. The UN also engaged in a unique crowdfunding effort, contributing to the pool which took a year to raise, according to Gressly.
The team is pumping between 4,000 and 5,000 barrels of oil every hour, and has so far transferred more than 120,000 barrels to the replacement vessel carrying the offloaded oil, Gressly said. The full transfer is expected to take 19 days.
The tanker was carrying a million barrels of oil. That would be enough to power up to 83,333 cars or 50,000 US homes for an entire year. The crude on board is worth around $80 million, and who gets that remains a controversial matter.
Here’s what we know so far:
The ship has been abandoned in the Red Sea since 2015 and the UN has regularly warned that the “ticking time bomb” could break apart given its age and condition, or the oil it holds could explode due to the highly flammable compounds in it.
The FSO Safer held four times the amount of oil spilled by the Exxon Valdez off Alaska in 1989 which resulted in a slick that covered 1,300 miles of coastline. A potential spill from this vessel would be enough to make it the fifth largest oil spill from a tanker in history, a UN website said. The cost of cleanup of such an incident is estimated at $20 billion.
The Red Sea is a vital strategic waterway for global trade. At its southern end lies the Bab el-Mandeb strait, where nearly 9% of total seaborne-traded petroleum passes. And at its north is the Suez Canal that separates Africa from Asia. The majority of petroleum and natural gas exports from the Persian Gulf that transit the Suez Canal pass through the Bab el-Mandeb, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
The sea is also a popular diving hotspot that boasts an impressive underwater eco-system. In places its banks are dotted with tourist resorts, and its eastern shore is the site of ambitious Saudi development projects worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
The first step of the mission was to stabilize and secure the vessel to avoid it collapsing, Gressly said. That has already been achieved in the past few weeks.
“There are a number of things that had to be done to secure the oil from exploding,” Gressly told CNN, including pumping out gases in each of the 13 compartments holding the oil. Systems for pumping were rebuilt, and some lighting was repaired.
Booms, which are temporary floating barriers used to contain marine spills, were dispersed around the vessel to capture any potential leaks.
The second step is to transfer the oil onto the replacement vessel, which is now underway.

Oil being removed from tanker near Yemen in Red Sea
After The Safer is emptied, it must then be cleaned to ensure no oil residue is left, Gressly said. The team will then attach a giant buoy to the replacement vessel until a decision about what to do with the oil has been made.
“The transfer of the oil to (the replacement vessel) will prevent the worst-case scenario of a catastrophic spill in the Red Sea, but it is not the end of the operation,” Gressly said.
While the hardest part of the operation would then be over, a spill could still occur. And even after the transfer, the tanker will “continue to pose an environmental threat resulting from the sticky oil residue inside the tank, especially since the tanker remains vulnerable to collapse,” the UN said, stressing that to finish the job, an extra $22 million is urgently needed.
A spill would shut the Yemeni ports that its impoverished people rely on for food aid and fuel, impacting 17 million people during an ongoing humanitarian crisis caused by the country’s civil war and a Saudi-led military assault on the country. Oil could bleed all the way to the African coast, damaging fish stocks for 25 years and affect up to 200,000 jobs, according to the UN.
A potential spill would cause “catastrophic” public health ramifications in Yemen and surrounding countries, according to a study by researchers at Stanford University School of Medicine. Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Eritrea would bear the brunt.
Air pollution from a spill of this magnitude would increase the risk of hospitalization for cardiovascular or respiratory disease for those very directly exposed by 530%, according to the study, which said it could cause an array of other health problems, from psychiatric to neurological issues.
“Given the scarcity of water and food in this region, it could be one of the most disastrous oil spills ever known in terms of impacts on human life,” David Rehkopf, a professor at Stanford University and senior author of the study, told CNN.
Up to 10 million people would struggle to obtain clean water, and 8 million would have their access to food supplies threatened. The Red Sea fisheries in Yemen could be “almost completely wiped out,” Rehkopf added.
The tanker has been an issue for many people in Yemen over the past few years, Gressly said. Sentiment on social media surrounding the removal of oil is very positive, as many in Yemen feel like the tanker is a “threat that’s been over their heads,” he said.
The tanker issue remains a point of dispute between the Houthi rebels that control the north of Yemen and the internationally recognized government, the two main warring sides in the country’s civil conflict.
While the war, which saw hundreds of thousands of people killed or injured, and Yemen left in ruins, has eased of late, it is far from resolved.
Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst for Yemen at the International Crisis Group think tank in Brussels, sees the Safer tanker issue as “an embodiment of the conflict in Yemen as a whole.”
“The government sees the Houthi militias as an illegitimate group controlling the tanker, and the Houthis do not recognize (the government),” Nagi told CNN.
The vessel was abandoned after the outbreak of the Yemeni civil war in 2015. The majority of the oil is owned by Yemeni state firm SEPOC, experts say, and there are some reports that it may be sold.
“From a technical point of view, the owner of the tanker and the oil inside it is SEPOC,” Nagi said, adding that other energy companies working in Yemen may also share ownership of the oil.

U.N. begins high-risk operation to prevent catastrophic oil spill from Yemen tanker
The main issue, Nagi added, is that the Safer’s headquarters are in the government-controlled Marib city, while the tanker is in an area controlled by the Houthis. The Safer is moored off the coast of the western Hodeidah province.
Discussions to determine the ownership of the oil are underway, Gressly said. The rights to the oil are unclear and there are legal issues that need to be addressed.
The UN coordinator hopes that the days needed to offload the oil will buy some time for “political and legal discussions that need to take place before the oil can be sold.”
While the UN may manage to resolve half of the issue, Nagi said, there still needs to be an understanding of the oil’s status.
“It still poses a danger if we keep it near a conflict zone,” he said.
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