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Tag: Commodity Futures Trading Commission

  • Chris Christie Joins AGA to Fight Prediction Markets

    Posted on: December 23, 2025, 12:18h. 

    Last updated on: December 22, 2025, 05:21h.

    • Chris Christie has joined the fight against sports prediction markets
    • Christie helped states win the right to legalize sports betting
    • Christie and President Trump are not friends, which could hamper Christie’s CFTC influence

    Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), who championed the fight against the US federal government for states to possess the right to legalize sports betting, has a new target in sports prediction markets.

    Chris Christie prediction markets sports
    Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie opines that prediction markets licensed by the CFTC offering sports contracts are breaking the law. Christie recently partnered with the American Gaming Association to fight against predictive market exchanges facilitating events involving sports. (Image: CNBC)

    Christie, a two-term Republican governor in the blue Garden State, helped lead New Jersey’s legal challenge to the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA). The federal law had restricted single-game sports gambling to Nevada.

    After years in court, the US Supreme Court in May 2018 ultimately sided with New Jersey in that PASPA violated anti-commandeering interpretations of the Tenth Amendment. The landmark ruling led to 40 states and Washington, DC, passing sports betting laws.

    Now, Christie is joining the American Gaming Association (AGA), a trade group representing the interests of the commercial and tribal gaming industries, to campaign against the continued rise of sports prediction markets.

    CNBC’s Contessa Brewer, who covers gaming matters for the business news outlet, broke the Christie news last Friday.

    Sports Prediction Markets 

    Prediction markets licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) claim to facilitate the buying and selling of binary markets and yes/no contracts. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket initially focused on the outcome of real-world happenings and events, from the weather to politics, but more recently ventured into sports.

    State attorneys general, gaming regulators, and certain state lawmakers have said the sports prediction markets are nothing more than sports gambling, but Kalshi and the like do not hold sports betting licenses in states where they operate. They’re even operating in states like California and Texas, where sports betting is illegal.

    Several traditional sportsbook giants, including DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics, recently withdrew their AGA memberships to pursue their own prediction markets. DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts launched over the past week.

    The AGA is betting on Christie being able to change the narrative.

    They are clearly illegal in the sports gaming space,” Christie told Brewer. “The Supreme Court turned this [sports betting] over to the states. Regulation is very important,” Christie said. “This is not compliant with the law.”

    The CFTC, which administers the Commodity Exchange Act, has allowed its Designated Contract Market (DCM) licensees to offer contracts on sporting outcomes. The CFTC, under the Trump administration, seems unlikely to force prediction markets to cease trading sports contracts. Even the president’s family is prepping a prediction market entry through its media group, and Donald Trump Jr. is a special advisor to Polymarket and Kalshi.

    The Commodity Exchange Act prohibits CFTC licensees from trading contracts involving “gaming” and events “contrary to the public interest” like war, terrorism, and assassination.

    “Just because people brazenly break the law doesn’t mean they should be permitted to do so,” Christie said.

    Sports Integrity in Focus 

    Christie says, unlike legal, regulated sportsbooks, which report suspicious betting activity to state gaming regulators and sports leagues when wagering patterns suggest a game or player could be compromised, predictive markets are like the wild west, where no such monitoring is occurring.

    The things that have happened in the NBA and MLB were discovered because the licensed sportsbooks are partnered with state regulators to look for irregularities. No one is looking for irregularities in sports prediction markets,” Christie said.

    “The CFTC has made it clear they aren’t regulating it with any rigor,” Christie continued. “The CFTC is not doing the job regarding sports, nor do they claim to be doing the job.”  

    Christie will try and help the AGA stress to the CFTC that prediction markets should not be allowed to offer sports contracts. It could be a tall task, as Christie’s relationship with Trump has soured greatly since his 2016 endorsement of the billionaire, something he’s called the “biggest mistake I’ve made in my political career.”

    Devin O’Connor

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  • As Crude Oil Prices Fall, Make This 1 Unexpected Trade ASAP

    December Canada dollar (D6Z25) futures present a selling opportunity on more price weakness.

    See on the daily bar chart for the December Canadian dollar futures that prices are in a downtrend and last week hit a six-month low. The bears have the firm near-term technical advantage.

    Fundamentally, the Canadian economy is heavily dependent on commodity exports, including crude oil (CLZ25). Crude’s recent price declines are a negative for the Canadian economy. In the meantime, the U.S. economy, while showing some recent weakness, is still overall in good shape.

    A move in the December Canadian dollar futures below chart support at last week’s low of .7122 would give the bears more power and it would also become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be .7000 or below. Technical resistance, for which to place a protective buy stop just above, is located at .7180.

    www.barchart.com

    IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any trades and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

    Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):

    Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

    On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

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  • Binance Pleads Guilty, Loses CZ, Pays Fines to End Legal Woes

    Binance Pleads Guilty, Loses CZ, Pays Fines to End Legal Woes

    (Bloomberg) — Binance Holdings Ltd. and its Chief Executive Officer Changpeng Zhao pleaded guilty to anti-money laundering and US sanctions violations under a sweeping settlement with the US that allows the cryptocurrency exchange to continue operating.

    Most Read from Bloomberg

    Binance will pay $4.3 billion in one of the largest corporate agreements in US history. Zhao will pay a $50 million fine under a deal that requires him to step down as CEO. Zhao pleaded guilty Tuesday to violating the Bank Secrecy Act in federal court in Seattle. The deal, which includes the Justice Department, Treasury Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, ends a years-long investigation into the exchange.

    Binance, which admitted that it allowed transactions with Hamas and other terrorist groups on the platform, was charged with three counts, including anti-money laundering, operating an unlicensed money transmitting business and violating US sanctions. The exchange is paying a criminal fine of $1.8 billion and forfeiting $2.5 billion, according to court filings unsealed Tuesday.

    Zhao faces as many as 10 years in prison but is expected to get no more than 18 months under a plea deal that appears to have saved him from the harsh penalties that other prominent crypto criminals have faced. The Justice Department hasn’t decided yet what length of a prison term they will seek for him.

    Binance’s violations included failure to prevent and report suspicious transactions with terrorists, including Hamas’ Al-Qassam Brigades, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Al Qaeda, and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, according to the Treasury Department. The announcement comes as Israel and Hamas have been embroiled in a war that began Oct. 7.

    Binance also allowed at least 1.1 million transactions, worth more than $898 million, on its platform between customers in US and Iran, according to the court filing.

    “Binance became the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange in part because of the crimes it committed — now it’s paying one of the largest corporate penalties in U.S. history,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a press release.

    Money from the fine will be split among DOJ, CFTC and other agencies. It includes $3.4 billion to the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network and $968 million to its Office of Foreign Assets Control over Bank Secrecy Act and sanctions violations.

    New CEO

    BNB, a cryptocurrency tied to the Binance ecosystem, slipped about 5.2% following the news. The token had hit a five-month high earlier in the day on the news that the DOJ would soon confirm its settlement with the exchange.

    “Binance turned a blind eye to its legal obligations in the pursuit of profit,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a press release. “Its willful failures allowed money to flow to terrorists, cybercriminals and child abusers through its platform.”

    The settlement negotiated between the two sides will resolve all allegations of criminal wrongdoing. Bloomberg News reported the settlement on Monday. Garland and Yellen held a press conference Tuesday to announce details of the deal.

    Read More: US Is Seeking More than $4 Billion From Binance to End Case

    As part of his plea deal with the government, Zhao, who has a net worth of $23 billion according to Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index, has stepped down as Binance CEO and can’t be involved in managing the company for three years. Richard Teng will succeed Zhao as CEO. Richard Teng will succeed Zhao as CEO.

    The company has also agreed to enhance its compliance program and appoint an independent monitor for three years. Binance’s multibillion dollar fine reflects a 20% discount for “partial cooperation” with the investigation, the agreement states.

    In a blog post Tuesday, the company acknowledged that it did not have proper compliance controls in its early launch, but said the settlement didn’t include any allegations that Binance misappropriated user funds or engaged in market manipulation.

    VIP Customers

    The Justice Department accused the company — as well as top executives, including Zhao — of taking steps to conceal that it was dodging US laws intended to stem the flow of dirty money around the world. The filing states that from about August 2017 until October 2022, Binance and Zhao were involved in a “deliberate and calculated effort” to profit from the US market without implementing controls required by law.

    Binance “chose not to comply with US legal and regulatory requirements because it determined that doing so would limit its ability to attract and maintain US users,” according to the charging document.

    Binance created loopholes that allowed US-based VIP customers to trade on the international exchange through offshore entities. The government’s case relied on internal documents, chats and details of phone calls to show how Binance helped VIP customers circumvent IP address blocking.

    These strategies, the government claimed, allowed US-based VIP users to carry out virtual currency transactions “equivalent to billions of US dollars per day.” Acting on instruction from Zhao and other senior management, employees encouraged the VIPs to conceal their US connections, including by creating new accounts.

    Zhao, according to the government’s court filings, discussed strategies to keep the market makers on Binance.com to reduce “our own losses” and to have “US supervision agencies not cause us any troubles.”

    Zhao was well aware of the presence of US customers on the Binance.com exchange. In a chat in 2019, he wrote that if Binance blocked US customers from day one “Binance will not be as big as we are today.”

    A year later, US users still made up 16% of total users on Binance, more than any other country. Binance removed the US label for user location and recategorized it as “UNKWN.”

    Zhao wrote that it was “better to ask for forgiveness than permission” and described the situation as a “grey zone.”

    CZ in Court

    Zhao wore a dark suit and light blue tie, and spent most of the hearing seated with his hands clasped. Judge Brian Tsuchida ruled Zhao would be released and was free to return to his home in the United Arab Emirates while awaiting sentencing.

    “I want to close the issue, I want to take responsibility and close this chapter of my life,” Zhao told the court during the hearing. Zhao said he was “a little bit scared” to come to the US to face his plea, but said he was reassured by the court’s thoroughness. “I will return.”

    Zhao’s bond was set at $175 million, after his lawyers said he would be prepared to put up that amount to secure his release. Lawyers for the government, who had asked that Zhao be ordered to stay in the country because the US lacks an extradition treaty with the UAE, said they would appeal the release terms.

    As part of the release, Zhao’s sister also put up a California home, which his lawyers said was valued at more than $5 million, and two unnamed guarantors committed a total of $350,000.

    Zhao faces a maximum sentence of 10 years and fines up to $500,000, plus any profits he made from the alleged scheme. His lawyers said in court that his sentencing will be delayed by 6 months. Zhao’s agreement includes a waiver of his right to appeal, provided that his sentence doesn’t exceed 18 months, judge Tsuchida said during the plea hearing.

    Crypto Crackdown

    The resolution against the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange and its top leader represents one of the largest penalties imposed within the cryptocurrency industry, which has been facing withering scrutiny from the Justice Department, other government agencies and lawmakers.

    Binance, which exploded onto the crypto scene in 2017 and almost immediately took on and surpassed larger rivals, saw its market share surge to more than 60% worldwide after the fall of FTX in November 2022. Since then, its combined market share for spot crypto and derivatives has declined to less than 44% this month, according to researcher CCData.

    The Justice Department recently prosecuted FTX co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried in New York for allegedly orchestrating a multibillion-dollar misappropriation of customer funds that led to the cryptocurrency exchange’s collapse. Bankman-Fried was convicted of fraud following a high-profile criminal trial.

    Both the CFTC and Securities and Exchange Commission sued Binance and Zhao earlier this year alleging a range of violations, including mishandling customer funds and allowing Americans to illegally access the platform. Tuesday’s settlement resolves the CFTC case but the SEC lawsuit is ongoing.

    Zhao worked at Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News, from 2002 to 2005.

    –With assistance from Michael P. Regan, Yueqi Yang, stacy-marie ishmael, David Voreacos and Daniel Flatley.

    (Updates with details from the press conference and the complaint throughout the story.)

    Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

    ©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

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  • Crypto firms Genesis and Gemini charged by SEC with selling unregistered securities

    Crypto firms Genesis and Gemini charged by SEC with selling unregistered securities

    The Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday charged crypto firms Genesis and Gemini with allegedly selling unregistered securities in connection with a high-yield product offered to depositors.

    Gemini, a crypto exchange, and Genesis, a crypto lender, partnered in February 2021 on a Gemini product called Earn, which touted yields of up to 8% for customers.

    According to the SEC, Genesis loaned Gemini users’ crypto and sent a portion of the profits back to Gemini, which then deducted an agent fee, sometimes over 4%, and returned the remaining profit to its users. Genesis should have registered that product as a securities offering, SEC officials said.

    “Today’s charges build on previous actions to make clear to the marketplace and the investing public that crypto lending platforms and other intermediaries need to comply with our time-tested securities laws,” SEC chair Gary Gensler said in a statement.

    Gemini’s Earn program, supported by Genesis’ lending activities, met the SEC’s definition by including both an investment contract and a note, SEC officials said. Those two features are part of how the SEC assesses whether an offering is a security.

    Regulators are seeking permanent injunctive relief, disgorgement, and civil penalties against both Genesis and Gemini.

    The two firms have been engaged in a high-profile battle over $900 million in customer assets that Gemini entrusted to Genesis as part of the Earn program, which was shuttered this week.

    Gemini, which was founded in 2015 by bitcoin advocates Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, has an extensive exchange business that, while beleaguered, could possibly weather an enforcement action.

    But Genesis’ future is more uncertain, because the business is heavily focused on lending out customer crypto and has already engaged restructuring advisers. The crypto lender is a unit of Barry Silbert’s Digital Currency Group.

    SEC officials said the possibility of a DCG or Genesis bankruptcy had no bearing on deciding whether to pursue a charge.

    It’s the latest in a series of recent crypto enforcement actions led by Gensler after the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX in November. Gensler was roundly criticized on social media and by lawmakers for the SEC’s failure to impose safeguards on the nascent crypto industry.

    Gensler’s SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, chaired by Rostin Benham, are the two regulators that oversee crypto activity in the U.S. Both agencies filed complaints against Bankman-Fried, but the SEC has, of late, ramped up the pace and the scope of enforcement actions.

    The SEC brought a similar action against now bankrupt crypto lender BlockFi and settled last year. Earlier this month, Coinbase settled with New York state regulators over historically inadequate know-your-customer protocols.

    Since Bankman-Fried was indicted on federal fraud charges in December, the SEC has filed five crypto-related enforcement actions.

    This is breaking news. Check back for updates.

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  • Sam Bankman-Fried could face years in prison over FTX’s $32 billion meltdown  — if the U.S. ever gets around to arresting him

    Sam Bankman-Fried could face years in prison over FTX’s $32 billion meltdown — if the U.S. ever gets around to arresting him

    FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried attends a press conference at the FTX Arena in downtown Miami on Friday, June 4, 2021.

    Matias J. Ocner | Miami Herald | Tribune News Service | Getty Images

    Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced former CEO of FTX — the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange that was worth $32 billion a few weeks ago — has a real knack for self-promotional PR. For years, he cast himself in the likeness of a young boy genius turned business titan, capable of miraculously growing his crypto empire as other players got wiped out. Everyone from Silicon Valley’s top venture capitalists to A-list celebrities bought the act.

    But during Bankman-Fried’s press junket of the last few weeks, the onetime wunderkind has spun a new narrative – one in which he was simply an inexperienced and novice businessman who was out of his depth, didn’t know what he was doing, and crucially, didn’t know what was happening at the businesses he founded.

    It is quite the departure from the image he had carefully cultivated since launching his first crypto firm in 2017 – and according to former federal prosecutors, trial attorneys and legal experts speaking to CNBC, it recalls a classic legal defense dubbed the “bad businessman strategy.”

    At least $8 billion in customer funds are missing, reportedly used to backstop billions in losses at Alameda Research, the hedge fund he also founded. Both of his companies are now bankrupt with billions of dollars worth of debt on the books. The CEO tapped to take over, John Ray III, said that “in his 40 years of legal and restructuring experience,” he had never seen “such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here.” This is the same Ray who presided over Enron’s liquidation in the 2000s.

    In America, it is not a crime to be a lousy or careless CEO with poor judgement. During his recent press tour from a remote location in the Bahamas, Bankman-Fried really leaned into his own ineptitude, largely blaming FTX’s collapse on poor risk management.

    At least a dozen times in a conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin, he appeared to deflect blame to Caroline Ellison, his counterpart (and one-time girlfriend) at Alameda. He says didn’t know how extremely leveraged Alameda was, and that he just didn’t know about a lot of things going on at his vast empire.

    Bankman-Fried admitted he had a “bad month,” but denied committing fraud at his crypto exchange.

    Fraud is the kind of criminal charge that can put you behind bars for life. With Bankman-Fried, the question is whether he misled FTX customers to believe their money was available, and not being used as collateral for loans or for other purposes, according to Renato Mariotti, a former federal prosecutor and trial attorney who has represented clients in derivative-related claims and securities class actions.

    “It sure looks like there’s a chargeable fraud case here,” said Mariotti. “If I represented Mr. Bankman-Fried, I would tell him he should be very concerned about prison time. That it should be an overriding concern for him.”

    But for the moment, Bankman-Fried appears unconcerned with his personal legal exposure. When Sorkin asked him if he was concerned about criminal liability, he demurred.

    “I don’t think that — obviously, I don’t personally think that I have — I think the real answer is it’s not — it sounds weird to say it, but I think the real answer is it’s not what I’m focusing on,” Bankman-Fried told Sorkin. “It’s — there’s going to be a time and a place for me to think about myself and my own future. But I don’t think this is it.”

    Comments such as these, paired with the lack of apparent action by regulators or authorities, have helped inspire fury among many in the industry – not just those who lost their money. The spectacular collapse of FTX and SBF blindsided investors, customers, venture capitalists and Wall Street alike.

    Bankman-Fried did not respond to a request for comment. Representatives for his former law firm, Paul, Weiss, did not immediately respond to comment. Semafor reported earlier that Bankman-Fried’s new attorney was Greg Joseph, a partner at Joseph Hage Aaronson.

    Both of Bankman-Fried’s parents are highly respected Stanford Law School professors. Semafor also reported that another Stanford Law professor, David Mills, was advising Bankman-Fried.

    Mills, Joseph and Bankman-Fried’s parents did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

    The risk of an FTX crypto contagion

    What kind of legal trouble could he be in?

    Bankman-Fried could face a host of potential charges – civil and criminal – as well as private lawsuits from millions of FTX creditors, legal experts told CNBC.

    For now, this is all purely hypothetical. Bankman-Fried has not been charged, tried, nor convicted of any crime yet.

    Richard Levin is a partner at Nelson Mullins Riley & Scarborough, where he chairs the fintech and regulation practice. He’s been involved in the fintech industry since the early 1990s, and has represented clients before the Securities and Exchange Commission, Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Congress. All three of those entities have begun probing Bankman-Fried.

    There are three different, possibly simultaneous legal threats that Bankman-Fried faces in the United States alone, Levin told CNBC.

    First is criminal action from the U.S. Department of Justice, for potential “criminal violations of securities laws, bank fraud laws, and wire fraud laws,” Levin said.

    A spokesperson for the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York declined to comment.

    Securing a conviction is always challenging in a criminal case.

    Mariotti, the former federal prosecutor is intricately familiar with how the government would build a case. He told CNBC, “prosecutors would have to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Bankman-Fried or his associates committed criminal fraud.”

    “The argument would be that Alameda was tricking these people into getting their money so they could use it to prop up a different business,” Mariotti said.

    “If you’re a hedge fund and you’re accepting customer funds, you actually have a fiduciary duty [to the customer],” Mariotti said.

    Prosecutors could argue that FTX breached that fiduciary duty by allegedly using customer funds to artificially stabilize the price of FTX’s own FTT coin, Mariotti said.

    But intent is also a factor in fraud cases, and Bankman-Fried insists he didn’t know about potentially fraudulent activity. He told Sorkin that he “didn’t knowingly commingle funds.”

    “I didn’t ever try to commit fraud,” Bankman-Fried said.

    Beyond criminal charges, Bankman-Fried could also be facing civil enforcement action. “That could be brought by the Securities Exchange Commission, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and by state banking and securities regulators,” Levin continued.

    “On a third level, there’s also plenty of class actions that can be brought, so there are multiple levels of potential exposure for […] the executives involved with FTX,” Levin concluded.

    Members of Congress try to distance themselves from FTX campaign contributions

    Who is likely to go after him?

    The Department of Justice is most likely to pursue criminal charges in the U.S. The Wall Street Journal reported that the DOJ and the SEC were both probing FTX’s collapse, and were in close contact with each other.

    That kind of cooperation allows for criminal and civil probes to proceed simultaneously, and allows regulators and law enforcement to gather information more effectively.

    But it isn’t clear whether the SEC or the CFTC will take the lead in securing civil damages.

    An SEC spokesperson said the agency does not comment on the existence or nonexistence of a possible investigation. The CFTC did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    “The question of who would be taking the lead there, whether it be the SEC or CFTC, depends on whether or not there were securities involved,” Mariotti, the former federal prosecutor, told CNBC.

    SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who met with Bankman-Fried and FTX executives in spring 2022, has said publicly that “many crypto tokens are securities,” which would make his agency the primary regulator. But many exchanges, including FTX, have crypto derivatives platforms that sell financial products like futures and options, which fall under the CFTC’s jurisdiction.

    “For selling unregistered securities without a registration or an exemption, you could be looking at the Securities Exchange Commission suing for disgorgement — monetary penalties,” said Levin, who’s represented clients before both agencies.

    “They can also sue, possibly, claiming that FTX was operating an unregistered securities market,” Levin said.

    Then there are the overseas regulators that oversaw any of the myriad FTX subsidiaries.

    The Securities Commission of The Bahamas believes it has jurisdiction, and went as far as to file a separate case in New York bankruptcy court. That case has since been folded into FTX’s main bankruptcy protection proceedings, but Bahamian regulators continue to investigate FTX’s activities.

    Court filings allege that Bahamian regulators have moved customer digital assets from FTX custody into their own. Bahamian regulators insist that they’re proceeding by the book, under the country’s groundbreaking crypto regulations — unlike many nations, the Bahamas has a robust legal framework for digital assets.

    I didn't ever try to commit fraud on anyone: Sam Bankman-Fried

    But crypto investors aren’t sold on their competence.

    “The Bahamas clearly lack the institutional infrastructure to tackle a fraud this complex and have been completely derelict in their duty,” Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter told CNBC. (Carter was not an FTX investor, and told CNBC that his fund passed on early FTX rounds.)

    “There is no question of standing. U.S. courts have obvious access points here and numerous parts of Sam’s empire touched the U.S. Every day the U.S. leaves this in the hands of the Bahamas is a lost opportunity,” he continued.

    Investors who have lost their savings aren’t waiting. Class-action suits have already been filed against FTX endorsers, like comedian Larry David and football superstar Tom Brady. One suit excoriated the celebrity endorsers for allegedly failing to do their “due diligence prior to marketing [FTX] to the public.”

    FTX’s industry peers are also filing suit against Bankman-Fried. BlockFi sued Bankman-Fried in November, seeking unnamed collateral that the former billionaire provided for the crypto lending firm.

    FTX and Bankman-Fried had previously rescued BlockFi from insolvency in June, but when FTX failed, BlockFi was left with a similar liquidity problem and filed for bankruptcy protection in New Jersey.

    Bankman-Fried has also been sued in Florida and California federal courts. He faces class-action suits in both states over “one of the great frauds in history,” a California court filing said.

    The largest securities class-action settlement was for $7.2 billion in the Enron accounting fraud case, according to Stanford research. The possibility of a multibillion-dollar settlement would come on top of civil and criminal fines that Bankman-Fried faces.

    But the onus should be on the U.S. government to pursue Bankman-Fried, Carter told CNBC, not on private investors or overseas regulators.

    “The U.S. isn’t shy about using foreign proxies to go after Assange — why in this case have they suddenly found their restraint?”

    What penalties could he face?

    Wire fraud is the most likely criminal charge Bankman-Fried would face. If the DOJ were able to secure a conviction, a judge would look to several factors to determine how long to sentence him.

    Braden Perry was once a senior trial lawyer for the CFTC, FTX’s only official U.S. regulator. He’s now a partner at Kennyhertz Perry, where he advises clients on anti-money laundering, compliance and enforcement issues.

    Based on the size of the losses, if Bankman-Fried is convicted of fraud or other charges, he could be behind bars for years — potentially for the rest of his life, Perry said. But the length of any potential sentence is hard to predict.

    “In the federal system, each crime always has a starting point,” Perry told CNBC.

    Federal sentencing guidelines follow a numeric system to determine the maximum and minimum allowable sentence, but the system can be esoteric. The scale, or “offense level,” starts at one, and maxes out at 43.

    A wire fraud conviction rates as a seven on the scale, with a minimum sentence ranging from zero to six months.

    But mitigating factors and enhancements can alter that rating, Perry told CNBC.

    “The dollar value of loss plays a significant role. Under the guidelines, any loss above $550 million adds 30 points to the base level offense,” Perry said. FTX customers have lost billions.

    “Having 25 or more victims adds 6 points, [and] use of certain regulated markets adds 4,” Perry continued.

    In this hypothetical scenario, Bankman-Fried would max out the scale at 43, based on those enhancements. That means Bankman-Fried could be facing life in federal prison, without the possibility of supervised release, if he’s convicted on a single wire fraud offense.

    But that sentence can be reduced by mitigating factors – circumstances that would lessen the severity of any alleged crimes.

    “In practice, many white-collar defendants are sentenced to lesser sentences than what the guidelines dictate,” Perry told CNBC, Even in large fraud cases, that 30-point enhancement previously mentioned can be considered punitive.

    By way of comparison, Stefan Qin, the Australian founder of a $90 million cryptocurrency hedge fund, was sentenced to more than seven years in prison after he pleaded guilty to one count of securities fraud. Roger Nils-Jonas Karlsson, a Swedish national accused by the United States of defrauding over 3,500 victims of more than $16 million was sentenced to 15 years in prison for securities fraud, wire fraud and money laundering.

    Bankman-Fried could also face massive civil fines. Bankman-Fried was once a multibillionaire, but claimed he was down to his last $100,000 in a conversation with CNBC’s Sorkin at the DealBook Summit last week.

    “Depending on what is discovered as part of the investigations by law enforcement and the civil authorities, you could be looking at both heavy monetary penalties and potential incarceration for decades,” Levin told CNBC.

    FTX's Sam Bankman-Fried is a 'pathological liar' and a 'con man,' says Jim Cramer

    How long will it take?

    Whatever happens won’t happen quickly.

    In the most famous fraud case in recent years, Bernie Madoff was arrested within 24 hours of federal authorities learning of his multibillion-dollar Ponzi scheme. But Madoff was in New York and admitted to his crime on the spot.

    The FTX founder is in the Bahamas and hasn’t admitted wrongdoing. Short of a voluntary return, any efforts to apprehend him would require extradition.

    With hundreds of subsidiaries and bank accounts, and thousands of creditors, it’ll take prosecutors and regulators time to work through everything.

    Similar cases “took years to put together,” said Mariotti. At FTX, where record keeping was spotty at best, collecting enough data to prosecute could be much harder. Expenses were reportedly handled through messaging software, for example, making it difficult to pinpoint how and when money flowed out for legitimate expenses.

    In Enron’s bankruptcy, senior executives weren’t charged until nearly three years after the company went under. That kind of timeline infuriates some in the crypto community.

    “The fact that Sam is still walking free and unencumbered, presumably able to cover his tracks and destroy evidence, is a travesty,” said Carter.

    But just because law enforcement is tight-lipped, that doesn’t mean they’re standing down.

    “People should not jump to the conclusion that something is not happening just because it has not been publicly disclosed,” Levin told CNBC.

    Could he just disappear?

    “That’s always a possibility with the money that someone has,” Perry said, although Bankman-Fried claims he’s down to one working credit card. But Perry doesn’t think it’s likely. “I believe that there has been likely some negotiation with his attorneys, and the prosecutors and other regulators that are looking into this, to ensure them that when the time comes […] he’s not fleeing somewhere,” Perry told CNBC.

    In the meantime, Bankman-Fried won’t be resting easy as he waits for the hammer to drop. Rep. Maxine Waters extended a Twitter invitation for him to appear before a Dec. 13 hearing.

    Bankman-Fried responded on Twitter, telling Waters that if he understands what happened at FTX by then, he’d appear.

    Correction: Caroline Ellison is Bankman-Fried’s counterpart at Alameda. An earlier version misspelled her name.

    FTX heads to a Delaware courtroom as the biggest crypto bankruptcy case yet gets underway

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