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  • Why Sam Altman is a no-brainer for Time’s ‘Person of the Year’

    Why Sam Altman is a no-brainer for Time’s ‘Person of the Year’

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    Nothing has changed our lives more this year than the advances made in artificial intelligence — and they have the potential to alter our lives in even more dramatic ways down the road.

    So it’s a no-brainer that Sam Altman, co-founder and recently returned chief executive of the once-little-known OpenAI, should be named “Person of the Year” by Time Magazine when the selection is announced Wednesday.

    Altman has already cracked Time’s shortlist, joining candidates from varied backgrounds, including world leaders like Xi Jinping and entertainment phenomenon Taylor Swift. The selection ultimately comes down to an “individual or group who most shaped the previous 12 months, for better or for worse.”

    But Time has often given “agents of change” its yearly honor — just look at 2021 winner Elon Musk — and Altman certainly fits that bill.

    No other innovation in the past year has had an impact in such disparate realms. OpenAI publicly launched its ChatGPT chatbot late last year, and as the technology grew viral in 2023, it upended the stock market, Silicon Valley and companies that wouldn’t normally be classified as technology businesses. The ensuing product development and surge in generative AI investment revitalized a tech industry that had sunk into the doldrums amid a pandemic hangover.

    Admittedly, it will take time for companies to realize the true financial benefits of AI: Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    -2.68%
    is among the few to generate serious money from the frenzy so far. But market researcher IDC predicted that global spending on AI, including software, hardware and services for AI-centric systems will reach $154 billion this year, up 27% from a year ago. That total could zoom above $300 billion by 2026.

    Also read: One year after its launch, ChatGPT has succeeded in igniting a new era in tech

    And AI isn’t only impacting the corporate world. The technology is already affecting our daily lives, and it will have even deeper effects going forward. Chatbots are getting smarter on websites, facilitating better customer service. They’re starting to alter the workplace as well, spitting out mostly coherent marketing copy, research and even, gasp, news articles — albeit with plenty of errors.

    At first, ChatGPT seemed like a fun way to kill time or get homework help, but the chatbot and its ilk will seriously alter the working world, helping to eliminate perhaps millions of jobs. Morgan Stanley recently predicted that more than 40% of occupations will be affected by generative AI in the next three years.

    Altman himself has been the face of OpenAI in the past year. He’s talked up the technology, but he also appeared at congressional hearings in May to discuss potential regulation of AI, testifying that “if this technology goes wrong, it can go quite wrong.” His recent firing and quick rehiring by OpenAI and its small, nonprofit board late last month fueled a veritable media storm before the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S.

    Time chooses its persons of the year for their impact, not because they’re saints. And Altman’s own story is not without controversy. The recent brouhaha over his leadership of OpenAI is believed to have been caused by a deep schism over the ethics of AI development. The board seemingly wanted more guardrails and precautions, and feared that rushed development could irrevocably doom mankind.

    Read in the Wall Street Journal: How effective altruism split Silicon Valley and fueled the blowup at OpenAI

    Altman, who also wooed Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    -1.43%
    to become an investor in OpenAI, emerged the victor in the upheaval with his own company’s altruistic board. Had Altman truly been fired from OpenAI, Microsoft was planning to hire him, and nearly every employee at OpenAI was ready to quit and follow him there. While OpenAI faces plenty of competition, including from Alphabet Inc.’s
    GOOG,
    -2.02%

    GOOGL,
    -1.96%
    Google, Altman should continue to be the face of AI development, for good and for bad, even as he has advocated industry regulation.

    The debut and influence of ChatGPT and follow-on AI products are having the biggest impact on tech development since the invention of the iPhone. Altman is at the center of it and leading the charge. Whether he can keep the lid on Pandora’s Box or not depends on many factors, but he and the company he leads are clearly driving a new tech movement that affects us all, whether we like it or not.

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  • Here's a Wild Idea That's Taking Root – Jim Hightower, Humor Times

    Here's a Wild Idea That's Taking Root – Jim Hightower, Humor Times

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    Students are organizing locally with a wild idea that makes a difference and makes a statement.

    Growing up, I absorbed a lot of values from my Ol’ Texas Daddy: a strong commitment to the common good, a healthy work ethic and a lively sense of humor. But one thing about him I’ve rejected: his determination to have a perfect yard of thick, verdant St. Augustine grass. Lord, how he worked at it — laying sod, (watering), fertilizing, (watering), weeding, (watering), spreading pesticides, (watering), mowing… (more watering). But it was too hot, too dry, too infested with blight, bugs, slugs and such. He was up against Texas nature, and he just couldn’t win.

    So, I’ve gone in the opposite direction — slowly nurturing a natural yard of native trees, drought-tolerant plants and a general live-with-nature ethos in my little landscape. I’m hardly alone in this rejection of the uniform “green grass imperative.” A spontaneous yard rebellion is taking hold across our country as more and more households, neighborhoods, businesses, etc. shift to a nature-friendly approach. A particularly encouraging push for change is coming from schoolkids — elementary through college — who are appalled by the poisoning of our globe and organizing locally to do something that both makes a difference and makes a statement. One exemplary channel for their activism is a student movement called Re:wild Your Campus.

    Of course, some people consider this a wild idea, after all, wild yards tend to be scruffy, ugly… unruly. That’s their choice, but some also insist that tidy grass lawns must be everyone’s choice. So, they proclaim themselves to be the yard police, demanding that cities and homeowners associations make green-grass uniformity the law, filing busybody lawsuits and running right-wing social media campaigns targeting people and groups that disobey.

    These attacks are silly because… well, they are silly, and also because they’re attacking the future, which is nearly always a loser strategy. To work for yard sanity and choice, go to Rewild.org.

    Voters Reject the Illiberal Bigotry of Moms 4 Liberty

    In one of their satirical songs, the Austin Lounge Lizards lampooned the ridiculous bigotry of some Christian factions, singing: “Jesus loves me. But he can’t stand you.”

    That could be the bellicose anthem of a quasi-religious Republican front group with a very sweet-sounding name: “Moms for Liberty.” Far from sweet, however, these moms are funded by rich Republicans to be ground troops in the party’s culture wars — essentially an anti-liberty campaign against people, books, teachers and ideas they don’t like. In the last few years, squads of these moms have turned into political hate groups, persecuting small town school board members by baselessly accusing them of conspiring to indoctrinate children with pornography, hatred of white people and “liberal” thinking.

    Having stirred up dust devils of division and fear, the momsters ran candidates in local board elections this fall, hoping to take over public schools. But they miscalculated on an essential political reality: Most Americans are not right-wingers, bigots or Christian nationalists. The group had counted on surprising voters in what are usually low visibility/low-turnout races, but the extremists were the ones surprised by an aggressive voter pushback against their scheme.

    Indeed, various surveys show that the GOP’s mom-wing lost about 80% of its races across the country, even in major swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. For example, in the very conservative school district of Pennridge, Pennsylvania, where a far-right majority of the board was attempting to impose a national model of a politically driven educational system, five Republican incumbents were up for reelection. All five were swept out, turning the Pennridge school board blue for the first time in years!

    To help push back against right-wing politicizers of your school district, contact Campaign for Our Shared Future.

    Jim HightowerJim Hightower
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  • Remote workers are flexing their muscle, and the best-run companies won’t fight them

    Remote workers are flexing their muscle, and the best-run companies won’t fight them

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    When COVID-19 struck, companies had little choice but to adapt swiftly. Office spaces were replaced by living rooms and in-person meetings transitioned to virtual calls — a temporary solution, or so it was thought.

    But months have turned into years, and now it’s clear this is not just a fleeting phase but a profound transformation in work dynamics.

    The…

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  • Don’t ruin Thanksgiving by making these rookie mistakes

    Don’t ruin Thanksgiving by making these rookie mistakes

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    A friend calls this day “Thanksscrapping.” He may have a point. 

    My favorite Thanksgiving story happened at a dinner on Park Avenue about 20 years ago when a lady with a large bouffant and a genial manner — let’s call her Mrs. Anders — raised a glass. Knowing I grew up in Dublin in a Catholic family, she said: “…and I’d like to raise a glass to Fair Eire and hope that the six counties of Northern Ireland are one day free from the British!” She did not realize that the host’s in-laws were Ulster Protestants. They were not amused.

    …

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  • Research shows that grandparents are great personal finance teachers. Here’s what my poppa who became an accountant during the Great Depression tried to teach me about money

    Research shows that grandparents are great personal finance teachers. Here’s what my poppa who became an accountant during the Great Depression tried to teach me about money

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    Poppa once took me to a deli for dinner. I was a boy of about 10. We went to the cash register to pay, only for him to find he lacked exact change.

    “I’ll owe you the nickel,” he told the cashier, who refused the offer. My grandfather fished out a dollar bill and collected 95 cents in change. “I’ll remember this,” he warned the cashier with a menacing scowl.    

    Benjamin Sheft never took anything in life for granted, least of all money. Any time we ate in a restaurant, he studied the check as if it were a sacred text. Paying cash, he peeled currency off his billfold as if stripping away a sheet of his own skin.

    As I grew up, no one tried harder to teach me about money–earning it, saving it, and losing it–than my poppa. Nor with less success.

    This year, the British financial services company Legal & General conducted a wide-ranging survey of 2,000 grandparents and 2,000 grandchildren. Among the questions it asked grandchildren was, “What are the most important life lessons your grandparents have taught you? As it turned out, almost a third of grandchildren (30%) cited grandparents for passing down “financial and money-saving advice.” 

    Similarly, Charles Schwab last year issued a guide to grandparents about teaching financial literacy to grandchildren The Role of a Grandparent | Over 50s | Legal and General.  It counseled “talking about money in everyday situations” with grandchildren and even learning to prepare a budget. “Starting these conversations at a young age,” it said, “can help ensure your grandchildren grow up to become responsible money managers.” 

    My poppa came to the United States from a village in Russia at age two in 1909, his father a tailor who barely spoke English. He married at 20 and became a father at 21, his daughter – later my mother – stricken profoundly deaf in infancy. He graduated from the City University of New York with a degree in accounting, the first member of his family to go to college.

    In his search for clients during the Great Depression, the newly minted CPA went door to door, on foot, to businesses around his neighborhood–dry cleaners, auto-repair shops, anything–offering to do the books for a pittance. 

    But by the late 1940s, in the first flush of the postwar boom, Poppa started to hit his stride. He opened an accounting firm with a partner, renting an upper-floor office right across East 42nd Street from Grand Central Terminal. There, he prepared taxes, bank records, payrolls, you name it. In my visits to the premises, I always gawked at his view of the Empire State Building.

    In the early 1950s, he moved his family from the Grand Concourse in the Bronx to a neighborhood on Manhattan’s Upper East Side suddenly swanky with the Second Avenue El recently torn down. He sent his son through New York University and Yale Law School. He bought my parents a split-level, three-bedroom house in suburban northern New Jersey and himself a Cadillac, then the standard American symbol for financial success. In due course, my grandparents joined a country club, where Poppa played golf, smoked cigars, and savored his Scotch on the rocks. They attended Broadway shows, acquired season tickets to the opera and the ballet, and vacationed in Europe and Asia.

    Even so, Poppa always believed he was chronically a day late and a dollar short. His son, my Uncle Leonard, once told me so. One day Poppa verified that claim. He told me how he and some partners once invested in a garden-apartment complex.  

    “I sold my stake in it too soon,” he admitted, his voice hoarse with regret. “I wanted to turn a fast buck.” He shook his head in shame and disbelief. “If I had held onto it longer, I would be a millionaire now.”

    You could never have enough, he seemed to be saying. Likely he never recovered, all those decades later, from the psychic wounds of the Great Depression.

    He meant to teach me about money–to count it, watch it, grow it–but I could never see money as he did. I grew up spoiled, certain that money magically materialized. The $5,000 in gifts for my bar mitzvah in 1965? I blew it 10 years later. Adjusted for inflation, that cash would today be worth north of $47,000. The $17,000 in presents at our wedding in 1979? These were squandered by the late 1980s. Today, that sum would amount to at least $74,000.

    Before I could learn anything from Poppa, I had to make my own mistakes. It took me until age 35 to develop a serviceable work ethic (having two kids will do that) and then until 45 to get out of debt. Some of us never learn, while others learn late. Eventually, I pulled myself together.

    “Everything is addition and subtraction,” says a character in a film noir the title of which I’ve forgotten. “The rest is just conversation.”

    Our parents and grandparents can teach us only so much. As I found out–and as Poppa showed me–certain lessons we just have to learn on our own.

    Bob Brody, a consultant and essayist based in Italy, is the author of the memoir Playing Catch with Strangers: A Family Guy (Reluctantly) Comes of Age.

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  • ‘Supreme Court Ethics’ Is an Oxymoron – Jim Hightower, Humor Times

    ‘Supreme Court Ethics’ Is an Oxymoron – Jim Hightower, Humor Times

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    The 14-page Supreme Court ethics code is a toothless watchdog with no bark, much less bite.

    Let me be blunt: The problem with today’s Supreme Court is that it consists of too many 5-watt bulbs sitting in 100-watt sockets.

    While most of the nine members are assumed to be brilliant, “smart” is as smart does, and this court’s right-wing majority wallows in stupid, consistently pushing plutocracy, autocracy and theocracy over the democratic will of the people. Compounding this stupidity, many of the judges have flagrantly accepted “gifts” of cash, luxury vacations and other freebies from the corporate and right-wing interests that have benefited from the court’s rulings. Yet, caught red-handed, the narcissistic jurists assert that We the People should just trust their integrity.

    These nine legal power brokers, who pose as America’s arbiters of justice, have even exempted themselves from having an ethics code, allowing each one to make up their own, unwritten ethical rules. Thus, corruption flourishes; so, the public, Congress and the media have finally demanded that, at the very least, the eminences be subjected to basic ethics. “OK, OK,” the nine finally grumped. “We’ll sign onto a code.”

    BUT… their acquiescence included a killer gotcha: They would write their own rules of behavior! Sure enough, their 14-page Supreme Court ethics code is a toothless watchdog with no bark, much less bite. It starts by snarling that the great unwashed simply fail to understand that the entire court is, as the chief justice had earlier proclaimed, made up of “jurists of exceptional integrity.” So, the new “code” promises boilerplate ethical behavior, but provides no enforcement mechanism beyond claiming the judges will police each other.

    When and Where Was the First Thanksgiving Feast?

    Let’s talk Turkey!

    No, not the Butterballs in Congress. I’m talking about the real thing, the big gobbler — 46 million of which we Americans will devour this Thanksgiving.

    It was the Aztecs who first domesticated the gallopavo, but the invading Spanish conquerors “fowled up” the bird’s origins. They declared it to be related to the peacock — Wrong! They also thought the peacock originated in Turkey — Wrong! And they thought Turkey was located in Africa — well, you can see the Spanish were pretty confused.

    Actually, even the origin of Thanksgiving Day in the U.S. is confused. The popular assumption is that it was first celebrated by the Mayflower immigrants and the Wampanoag natives at Plymouth, Massachusetts, in 1621. They feasted on venison, furkees (Wampanoag for gobblers), eels, mussels, corn and beer. But wait, say Virginians, the first Thanksgiving Food-a-Palooza was not in Massachusetts — the feast originated down here in Jamestown colony, back in 1608.

    Whoa there, pilgrims! Folks in El Paso, Texas, say it all began way out there in 1598, when Spanish settlers sat down with people of the Piro and Manso tribes to give thanks, feasting on roasted duck, geese and fish.

    “Ha!” says a Florida group, asserting the very, very first Thanksgiving happened in 1565 when the Spanish settlers of St. Augustine and friends from the Timucuan tribe chowed down on “cocido” — a stew of salt pork, garbanzo beans and garlic — washing it all down with red wine.

    Wherever it began, and whatever the purists claim is “official,” Thanksgiving today is as multicultural as America. So, let’s enjoy! Kick back, give thanks we’re in a country with such ethnic richness, and dive into your turkey rellenos, moo-shu turkey, turkey falafel, barbecued turkey… and so on.

    Jim HightowerJim Hightower
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  • I’m a veteran of the special operations community. Here’s how Hollywood glamorized us–and deprived most troops of lifesaving donations

    I’m a veteran of the special operations community. Here’s how Hollywood glamorized us–and deprived most troops of lifesaving donations

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    When I entered the special operations community in 2003, “veteran nonprofit services” meant partaking in cheap beers and drunken war myths, courtesy of the Veterans of Foreign Wars, a charitable organization that has been around for more than 120 years. Today, the term conjures other images: An obscure, tax-exempt industry that is fueled by the public’s frustration with the Department of Veteran Affairs and is leveraged to favor the elite within the armed forces.

    Most Americans share a similar view of the veteran community. By and large, we are a sentimentalized, homogenous group of heroic victims. That is, unless we fall under recognizable categories such as “fighter pilot” or “Navy SEAL,” and are therefore deified in movies and books. This has broad ramifications: For decades, Hollywood and the publishing industry have aided the military in its recruitment efforts. However, the idealization of specialty groups within the military has also impacted the distribution of charitable donations to organizations aimed at helping veterans with healthcare (in areas where the VA falls short) and with the transition to the private sector.

    In short, these “elite” groups, especially the ones who have enjoyed the most attention in popular culture, are attracting and absorbing a disproportionate amount of the country’s well-meaning donations to its veterans.

    For example, I come from the Air Force Pararescue community, also known as the PJs. To become a PJ, an airman must first complete years of training which is among the most difficult in the military. The resulting gang of qualified PJs is a hyper-focused, agile, and subconsciously aligned tribe of operators who can carry out extremely complex rescue missions with a small team. There is a smattering of other groups within the military that are similar in their effectiveness, such as the SEALs, Green Berets, and others that you’ve heard of and many you haven’t. Each of these job-specific organizations can be distilled down to being a collection of highly effective, highly motivated individuals with a knack for getting what they want through creative and aggressive modalities.

    We are ready-made networks of high performers–but not all of us are good at marketing ourselves and this is reflected in the funding of our associated nonprofits. The Pararescue Foundation is worth just under $400,000, which is not a lot, even for a community as small as ours (there are around 500 active PJs at any given time, in addition to a proportionate number of family members and living alumni). Compare that to the Navy SEAL Foundation, which serves SEALs and SWCCs (Special Warfare Combat Crewmen), a population estimated to be around 3,300 active members plus their proportionate family members and alumni–with current assets sitting comfortably at just under a staggering $135 million. And just to measure those numbers against a broad-spectrum organization serving all service members, veterans, and family members, the assets of the Wounded Warrior Project, which provides physical and emotional health services to all veterans, are at just under $450 million. (The Department of Defense’s 2021 report on demographics put the number of Guard, Reserve, active duty, and family members at 4.7 million and the U.S. Census put the number of living veterans at 18 million in 2018.)

    The numbers tell a part of the story but they miss the details. While the Pararescue Foundation is poorly funded compared to the Navy SEAL Foundation, I am still part of “the club” since I’m a veteran of the special operations community. Doors are left open for me and where they aren’t I can whisper the magic words, “I was a PJ,” and the latch is pulled back. But my experience in combat was no more severe and, in many cases, less severe than conventional troops–collectively referred to as the Grunts–who neither have effective nonprofits to their name nor a brand beyond being the targets of patriotic sympathy.

    What doesn’t come through in the numbers is that all veterans need the help of non-profit organizations to fill in the gaps left wide open by the VA. These are the avenues for accessing personalized mental healthcare, top-level career bridging, robust familial support, and focused counseling on how to navigate the VA’s labyrinthine disability system, which can mean the difference between transitioning into financial freefall or hopping into a comfortable cadence of monthly governmental stipends. It’s obvious why more equal access to these services is critical.

    America obsesses over the heroics of special operators, specifically those who have developed a brand–the ones represented over and over again in countless movies and books. And while most of the country remains either unaware or apathetic to who is–and isn’t–the beneficiary of their help, their charitable contributions favor the veterans who are most visible, not the ones who might be most in need.

    So, if you want to help a vet in need, focus on the ones silenced by their trauma and muted by the magic of marketing. The true heroes aren’t the ones getting book deals–and sometimes, not even the healthcare services they desperately need.

    Pat Gault is a retired Air Force Pararescueman (PJ) and lives in Anchorage, Alaska.

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  • Here’s why you might not have to pay a 6% commission next time you sell a home

    Here’s why you might not have to pay a 6% commission next time you sell a home

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    Going back decades, if you wanted to buy or sell a stock on the open market, you had to pay a 2% commission to buy and a 2% commission to sell. Then the advent of discount brokerage, led by Charles Schwab Corp.
    SCHW,
    +1.64%    ,
    made lower commissions available until eventually, with improved technology and efficiency, the entire industry changed to enable the average investor to avoid commissions completely.

    But the internet hasn’t done much to reduce the cost of selling a home in the U.S. Sellers typically pay a 6% commission to a real-estate agent to list and sell a home, with the seller’s agent splitting that commission with the buyer’s agent. But all of that may change because of a verdict this week in a class-action lawsuit in federal court against the National Association of Realtors.

    Aarthi Swaminathan covers the case, what may happen next and the implications for home sellers and buyers:

    Real-estate advice from the Moneyist


    MarketWatch illustration

    Quentin Fottrell — the Moneyist — works with three readers to answer tricky real-estate questions:

    Economic outlook

    On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may have bolstered the case that the central bank is finished raising interest rates for this economic cycle. The federal-funds rate was left in its target range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

    Jon Gray, the president of Blackstone Group, spoke with MarketWatch Editor in Chief Mark DeCambre and said he expected the Fed to succeed in bringing down inflation without pushing the U.S. economy into a deep recession.

    Friday employment numbers: Jobs report shows 150,000 new jobs in October as U.S. labor market cools

    Bond-market trend switches again

    The U.S. Treasury yield curve has been inverted for nearly a year.


    FactSet

    Normally, longer-term bonds have higher yields than those with short maturities. But the yield curve has been inverted for nearly a year, with 3-month U.S. Treasury bills
    BX:TMUBMUSD03M
    having higher yields than 10-year Treasury notes
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y.

    There has been elevated demand for long-term bonds, as investors have anticipated a recession and a reversal in Federal Reserve interest-rate policy. When interest rates decline, bond prices rise and vice versa.

    As you can see on the chart above, the yield curve was narrowing until mid-October. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes were close to 5% on Oct. 19, but they have been falling the past several days as the three-month yield has remained close to 5.5%.

    In this week’s ETF Wrap, Christine Idzelis reports on where all the money is flowing in the bond market.

    In the Bond Report, Vivien Lou Chen summarizes the action as investors react to the Federal Reserve’s decision not to change its federal-funds-rate target range this week and to other economic news.

    For income-seekers looking to avoid income taxes, here’s a deep dive into municipal bonds, with taxable-equivalent yields and a deeper look at those within four high-tax states.

    Ford’s good news — in the bond market

    Ford Motor Co.’s debt rating has been lifted by S&P to investment-grade.


    Getty Images

    Ford Motor Co.’s
    F,
    +4.14%
    credit rating was upgraded to an investment-grade rating by Standard & Poor’s on Monday. This takes about $67 billion in bonds out of the high-yield, or “junk,” market, as Ciara Linnane reports.

    A stock-market warning based on history

    The original Magnificent Seven.


    Courtesy Everett Collection

    By now you have probably heard the term “Magnificent Seven” used to describe stocks of the tremendous tech-oriented companies that have led this year’s rally for the S&P 500
    SPX
    : Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    -0.52%    ,
    Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +1.29%    ,
    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +0.38%    ,
    Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +3.45%    ,
    Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL,
    +1.26%

    GOOG,
    +1.39%    ,
    Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    +1.20%
    and Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    +0.66%    .
    With Tesla’s recent decline, that company is now the ninth-largest holding in the portfolio of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
    SPY,
    which tracks the benchmark index. Here are the top 10 companies held by SPY (11 stocks, including two common-share classes for Alphabet), with total returns through Thursday:

    Company

    		 Ticker

    		 % of SPY portfolio

    		 2023 total return

    		 2022 total return

    		 Total return since end of 2021
    Apple Inc.

    		 AAPL,
    -0.52%         		7.2%

    		 37%

    		 -26%

    		 1%
    Microsoft Corp.

    		 MSFT,
    +1.29%         		7.1%

    		 46%

    		 -28%

    		 5%
    Amazon.com Inc.

    		 AMZN,
    +0.38%         		3.5%

    		 64%

    		 -50%

    		 -17%
    Nvidia Corp.

    		 NVDA,
    +3.45%         		3.0%

    		 198%

    		 -50%

    		 48%
    Alphabet Inc. Class A

    		 GOOGL,
    +1.26%         		2.1%

    		 44%

    		 -39%

    		 -12%
    Meta Platforms Inc. Class A

    		 META,
    +1.20%         		1.9%

    		 158%

    		 -64%

    		 -8%
    Alphabet Inc. Class C

    		 GOOG,
    +1.39%         		1.8%

    		 45%

    		 -39%

    		 -11%
    Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B

    		 BRK.B,
    +0.80%         		1.8%

    		 13%

    		 3%

    		 17%
    Tesla Inc.

    		 TSLA,
    +0.66%         		1.7%

    		 77%

    		 -65%

    		 -38%
    UnitedHealth Group Inc.

    		 UNH,
    -0.98%         		1.4%

    		 2%

    		 7%

    		 9%
    Eli Lilly and Company

    		 LLY,
    -2.15%         		1.3%

    		 60%

    		 34%

    		 115%
    Sources: FactSet, State Street (for SPY holdings)

    Five of these stocks (including the two Alphabet share classes) are still down from the end of 2021. SPY itself has returned 14% this year, following an 18% decline in 2022. It is still down 7% from the end of 2021.

    Mark Hulbert makes the case that a decade from now, the Magnificent Seven are unlikely to be among the largest companies in the stock market.

    More from Hulbert: These dividend stocks and ETFs have healthy yields that can lift your portfolio

    A different market opportunity: India is seeing a multidecade growth surge. Here’s how you can invest in it.

    The MarketWatch 50


    MarketWatch

    The MarketWatch 50 series is back, with articles and video interviews starting this week, including:

    PayPal soars after earnings report

    PayPal CEO Alex Chriss.


    MarketWatch/PayPal

    After the market close on Wednesday, PayPal Holdings Inc.
    PYPL,
    +1.89%
    announced quarterly results that came in ahead of analysts’ expectations, and the stock soared 7% on Thursday even though the company lowered its target for improving its operating margin.

    In the Ratings Game column, Emily Bary reports on the positive reaction to PayPal’s new CEO, Alex Chriss.

    A less enthusiastic earnings reaction: EV-products maker BorgWarner’s stock suffers biggest drop in 15 years after downbeat sales outlook

    Consumers drive mixed reactions to earnings results

    Apple Inc. reported mixed quarterly results.


    Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Here’s more of the latest corporate financial results and reactions. First the good news:

    And now the news that may not be so good:

    Harsh verdict for SBF

    FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried.


    AP

    It might seem that some legal battles never end, but it took only a year from the collapse of FTX for the cryptocurrency exchange’s founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, to be convicted on all seven federal fraud and money-laundering charges brought against him. The charges were connected to the disappearance of $8 billion from FTX customer accounts.

    Here’s more reaction and coverage of the virtual-currency industry:

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  • There’s a ton worth streaming in November 2023. So as prices rise, here’s how to avoid breaking the bank.

    There’s a ton worth streaming in November 2023. So as prices rise, here’s how to avoid breaking the bank.

    [ad_1]

    November offers a false spring for streaming viewers.

    After a slow couple of months, there’s suddenly an abundance of top-tier shows on the way, but don’t be fooled — the streaming scene is going to be largely bleak in the coming months, until productions fully ramp up sometime next year following the strikes that have crippled Hollywood.

    Meanwhile, streaming costs keep rising (Netflix’s top tier is the first to cross the $20 barrier) and consumers are getting less for their money, with fewer new shows and smaller libraries, while streamers push subscribers toward ad-supported tiers that generate more revenue per user while providing a worse viewing experience. Still, all the ad-supported tiers cost less than $10 a month, meaning it may be time for budget-conscious consumers to suck it up and deal with commercials if they don’t want to break the bank.

    Read more: Netflix is raising prices to get you to watch ads, and it will probably work

    That’s why it’s even more important to examine which services you’re really willing to pay for. The days of subscribing to six streaming services — even though you might only regularly watch three — are over. But by adding and canceling services month to month, you can save money while still being able to watch your favorite shows (for example, instead of watching a 12-episode show that drops every week and paying for three months, subscribe for just one month once the show nears its end and binge it all at once).

    Such a churn strategy takes some planning, but it pays off. Keep in mind that a billing cycle starts when you sign up, not necessarily at the beginning of the month.

    Each month, this column offers tips on how to maximize your streaming and your budget, rating the major services as a “play,” “pause” or “stop” — similar to investment analysts’ traditional ratings of buy, hold or sell, and picks the best shows to help you make your monthly decisions.

    Here’s a look at what’s coming to the various streaming services in November 2023, and what’s really worth the monthly subscription fee:

    Apple TV+ ($9.99 a month)

    The price of Apple TV+ has doubled in a little over a year, and in any other month, it’d be easy to argue it has priced itself out of the range of casual viewers. But Apple’s November lineup is so impressive that it’s actually somehow still a good deal.

    The alt-history space drama “For All Mankind” (Nov. 10) returns for its fourth season, with an eight-year time jump after Season 3’s shocking finale. The Mars colony is now thriving, but tensions are rising over the mining of mineral-rich asteroids. Toby Kebbell (“Servant”) joins the cast, along with Daniel Stern and Tyner Rushing, who join holdovers Joel Kinnaman, Krys Marshall, Wrenn Schmidt and Coral Pena. It’s a fantastic and frequently thrilling series, and arguably Apple’s best drama.

    And a challenger to that title is also coming back. “Slow Horses” (Nov. 29), the darkly funny thriller about a group of washed-up spies, returns for its third season. Gary Oldman stars as perpetually disgruntled spymaster Jackson Lamb, leading his team of misfits as they get dragged into an international conspiracy after one of their own is kidnapped. Based on the novels by Mick Herron, “Slow Horses” is smart and cynical, a terrific twist on traditional spy stories.

    Then there’s “Monarch: Legacy of Monsters” (Nov. 17), an action-conspiracy series about a ragtag group trying to expose a secretive organization that knows the truth about Godzilla and other kaiju creatures terrorizing the planet. Kurt Russell stars with his son, Wyatt (who plays his dad in flashbacks), along with Anna Sawai, Ren Watabe and Kiersey Clemons. The series is intended to slide right into the MonsterVerse that includes “Godzilla vs. Kong,” “Kong: Skull Island” and “Godzilla: King of the Monsters,” and for anyone who grew up watching monster movies, this could be a lot of fun.

    Apple
    AAPL,
    +1.87%
    also has “Fingernails” (Nov. 3), a sci-fi romance movie starring Jessie Buckley, Riz Ahmed, Jeremy Allen White and Luke Wilson; “The Buccaneers” (Nov. 8), a “Bridgerton”-esque period drama based on the Edith Wharton novel about a group of rich American girls who hit London in the 1870s looking for suitable husbands; the holiday musical special “Hannah Waddingham: Home for Christmas” (Nov. 22); and a new version of the tear-jerking children’s classic “The Velveteen Rabbit” (Nov. 22).

    Meanwhile, Martin Scorsese’s critically acclaimed “Killers of the Flower Moon” should hit Apple TV+ within the next month or two, after it completes its theatrical run, and Ridley Scott’s historical epic “Napoleon,” starring Joaquin Phoenix, his theaters Nov. 22. It, too, will stream on Apple at an as-yet-undisclosed date in the coming months.

    There are also new episodes every week of “Lessons in Chemistry” (finale Nov. 24), and “The Morning Show” (season finale Nov. 8). If that’s not enough, you could always catch up on “Foundation,” “Swagger,” “Platonic” or discover “Bad Sisters.”

    Who’s Apple TV+ for? It offers a little something for everyone, but not necessarily enough for anyone — although it’s getting there.

    Play, pause or stop? Play. Even though its price has soared, Apple is still cheaper than most, and it delivers value this month. (Remember, you can get three free months of Apple TV+ if you buy a new Apple device.)

    Hulu ($7.99 a month with ads, or $17.99 with no ads)

    After a fallow October, Hulu has a lot more to offer in November, continuing its strong year.

    FX’s “A Murder at the End of the World” (Nov. 14) was pushed back from an August release date due to the Hollywood strikes, but it should fit better in a colder season anyway. From Brit Marling and Zal Batmanglij, the producers of Netflix’s cult favorite sci-fi series “The OA,” the limited series is an Agatha Christie-style murder mystery set at a billionaire’s secluded, snowbound retreat in Iceland. Emma Corrin (“The Crown”) stars as an amateur detective while Clive Owen (“Children of Men”) plays the mysterious tycoon.

    A wintry setting also plays a key role in the fifth season of FX’s “Fargo” (Nov. 22), the latest installment in Noah Hawley’s noirish crime anthology. Juno Temple (“Ted Lasso”) plays a seemingly ordinary Midwestern housewife who’s not at all what she appears to be. She’s joined by an all-star cast that includes Jon Hamm, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Lamorne Morris and Dave Foley. Each season of “Fargo” is a quirky, violent delight, and this one looks no different.

    Also: Disney officially plans to buy remaining Hulu stake from Comcast

    Just to make things confusing, while both “A Murder at the End of the World” and “Fargo” are FX series, “Murder” will stream exclusively on Hulu, while “Fargo” episodes will first air on FX then stream a day later.

    In an interesting experiment, director Baz Luhrmann has recut his 2008 romantic drama “Australia,” starring Nicole Kidman and Hugh Jackman, and turned it into a six-episode miniseries — renamed “Faraway Downs” (Nov. 26) — using extra footage shot during the original filming. The movie flopped in theaters, but Luhrmann says it should work better as a miniseries, saying “episodic storytelling has been reinvigorated by the streaming world.”

    For more: Here’s what’s new on Hulu in November 2023 — and what’s leaving

    Hulu also has “Black Cake” (Nov. 1), a generations-spanning family drama based on the bestselling novel by Charmaine Wilkerson; “Quiz Lady” (Nov. 3), a comedy movie about estranged sisters, starring Awkwafina and Sandra Oh; and a handful of sports documentaries, including “The League” (Nov. 9), about Negro League baseball, and “Brawn: The Impossible Formula 1 Story” (Nov. 15), hosted by Keanu Reeves.

    Fresh off October’s addition of “Moonlighting,” Hulu is adding all eight seasons of another 1980s classic, “L.A. Law” (Nov. 3), along with a ton of holiday fare, including “Adam Sandler’s Eight Crazy Nights” and “Miracle on 34th Street” (both Nov. 1), and “Elf” and “National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation” (both Nov. 23).

    And don’t forget the season finales of “Welcome to Wrexham” (Nov. 15) and “Goosebumps” (Nov. 17), as well as next-day streams of network shows such as “The Golden Bachelor” and “Bob’s Burgers.”

    Who’s Hulu for? TV lovers. There’s a deep library for those who want older TV series and next-day streaming of many current network and cable shows.

    Play, pause or stop? Pause and think it over. If you’re on the ad-supported plan, it’s well worth it. But for the pricey, $18 ad-free plan, you may want to wait until December and see how some of these new series pan out.

    Netflix ($6.99 a month for basic with ads, $15.49 standard with no ads, $22.99 premium with no ads)

    Netflix just raised some prices again, but for most customers, it’s still a good value.

    The critically acclaimed royal-family drama “The Crown” (Nov. 16) is back for the first half of its sixth and final season (four episodes drop this month, with the final six coming in December). Events pick up in 1997 after the marriage of Prince Charles (Dominic West) and Princess Diana (Elizabeth Debicki) ends, as Queen Elizabeth II (Imelda Staunton) reflects on her legacy. There’s already controversy over how it’ll handle Diana’s tragic death.

    Read more: Here’s what’s new on Netflix in November 2023 — and what’s leaving

    Netflix
    NFLX,
    +2.06%
     also has “The Killer” (Nov. 10) a “slick but conventional” thriller movie from director David Fincher, starring Michael Fassbender as a hit man on the run; “Squid Game: The Challenge” (Nov. 22), a reality competition show putting 456 players through challenges inspired by the hit Korean drama (minus the murders, presumably); “Scott Pilgrim Takes Off” (Nov. 17), an anime version of the graphic novels and cult-favorite movie “Scott Pilgrim vs. the World” (which is also coming Nov. 1); “All the Light We Cannot See” (Nov. 2), a critically panned miniseries about a blind French girl and a German soldier in the final days of WWII, starring Aria Mia Loberti, Louis Hofmann and Mark Ruffalo; Season 5, Part 2 of the popular small-town romantic drama “Virgin River” (Nov. 30); and “The Netflix Cup: Swing to Survive” (Nov. 14), Netflix’s first livestreamed sporting event, with teams of Formula 1 drivers and PGA stars in a match-play golf tournament from Las Vegas.

    There are also fresh episodes of “The Great British Baking Show” every Friday until its season finale Dec. 1.

    Who’s Netflix for? Fans of buzz-worthy original shows and movies.

    Play, pause or stop? Pause. “The Crown” and “The Great British Baking Show” are the top draws, but aside from those, there’s not a lot else to move the needle this month. However, if you can live with commercials, you can find value at $7.

    Paramount+ ($5.99 a month with ads, $11.99 a month with Showtime and no ads)

    Paramount+ has some interesting stuff in November. But is it enough to justify a subscription?

    “Lawmen: Bass Reeves” (Nov. 5), joins the streaming service’s extensive slate of shows produced by Taylor Sheridan, telling the story of one of the Wild West’s most overlooked real-life heroes: Bass Reeves (played by David Oyelowo), who was the first Black U.S. marshal west of the Mississippi and overcame countless hurdles in enforcing the law in the era of Reconstruction. A marksman with something like 3,000 arrests to his name, Reeves was purportedly the inspiration for the story of the Lone Ranger. Say what you will about Sheridan’s formulaic shows, but he knows how to make a good Western. This should be worth a watch.

    There’s also “The Curse“ (Nov. 10), an intriguing new Showtime series starring Nathan Fielder (“Nathan for You”) and Oscar-winner Emma Stone that puts a dark twist to an HGTV-like home-improvement show; and “Good Burger 2” (Nov. 22), a sequel to the 1997 cult-classic fast-food comedy starring Kenan Thompson and Kel Mitchell.

    On the sports side, Paramount has NFL football every Sunday, Big Ten and SEC college football every Saturday, and a full slate of UEFA Champions League soccer.

    Who’s Paramount+ for? Gen X cord-cutters who miss live sports and familiar Paramount Global 
    PARA,
    -0.74%
      broadcast and cable shows.

    Play, pause or stop? Pause. There’s decent value with a couple of promising new shows, especially when factoring in Paramount’s live sports and vast library of movies and network shows.

    Max ($9.99 a month with ads, $15.99 with no ads, or $19.99 ‘Ultimate’ with no ads)

    It’s a very skippable month for Max.

    The Warner Bros. Discovery 
    WBD,
    +1.41%
     streaming service only has a handful of new originals to offer, including Season 2 of Issa Rae’s hip-hop comedy “Rap Sh!t” (Nov. 19), as Shawna (Aida Osman) and Mia (KaMillion) come to a crossroads on their road to fame; Season 2 of the biographical drama “Julia” (Nov. 16), starring Sarah Lancashire as iconic chef Julia Child as she and her husband return from France and face new challenges; “Bookie” (Nov. 30), a new comedy from Chuck Lorre (“Big Bang Theory”) and Nick Bakay about an L.A. bookie looking for new angles as the potential legalization of sports gambling threatens to upend his shady business; and Rob Reiner’s documentary “Albert Brooks: Defending My Life” (Nov. 11), delving into the life of the comedy legend.

    Also: Here’s everything coming to Max in November 2023 — and what’s leaving

    There are also a ton of holiday-themed shows from Food Network, HGTV and OWN; live sports on its free (for now) Bleacher Report tier that includes NBA and NHL games, college basketball and U.S. men’s soccer (Nov. 16 and 20); and new episodes of “The Gilded Age” and “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver.”

    Who’s Max for? HBO fans and movie lovers. And now, unscripted TV fans too, with a slew of Discovery shows.

    Play, pause or stop? Stop. Max still has a great library, but the new offerings fall short. Even the ad tier isn’t worth it — try again another month.

    Amazon’s Prime Video ($14.99 a month, or $8.99 without Prime membership)

    “The Boys” spinoff “Gen V” ends its first season on Nov. 3, but fans of ultra-violent superheroes will be able to slide right into Season 2 of the hit animated series “Invincible” (Nov. 3), which returns to Prime Video after a two-and-a-half-year layoff. Based on the graphic novels by Robert Kirkman, Cory Walker and Ryan Ottley, the very adult series picks up with Mark (Steven Yeun) still reeling from the revelations about his superhero father (J.K. Simmons) at the end of Season 1, while a new villain (voiced by Sterling K. Brown) appears on the scene. Annoyingly, Season 2 will be split in two, with four episodes in November and another four coming in early 2024.

    More: What’s new on Amazon’s Prime Video and Freevee in November 2023

    Amazon’s
    AMZN,
    +2.94%
     streaming service also has “007: Road to a Million” (Nov. 10), an “Amazing Race”-like competition series hosted by Brian Cox where nine teams of two endure James Bond-inspired challenges around the globe to try to win a big cash prize, and “Twin Love” (Nov. 17), a reality dating show involving 10 sets of identical twins split into two houses.

    Who’s Prime Video for? Movie lovers, TV-series fans who value quality over quantity.

    Play, pause or stop? Stop. There’s no a compelling reason to start a relatively pricey subscription now. That even goes for “Invincible” fans, who would be better off waiting until the second half drops and bingeing when all episodes are available. Splitting up eight episodes is ridiculous.

    Disney+ ($7.99 a month with ads, $13.99 with no ads)

    Tim Allen returns for Season 2 of “The Santa Clauses” (Nov. 8), as the jolly one continues his search for a successor. Eric Stonestreet joins the cast as the exiled “Mad Santa,” along with Gabriel Iglesias as Kris Kringle and Tracey Morgan as the Easter Bunny (because, of course!).

    Meanwhile, Lil Rel Howry, Ludacris and Oscar Nunez star in the new family comedy movie “Dashing Through the Snow” (Nov. 17), and Danny Glover will play Santa in the Disney Channel original film “The Naughty Nine” (Nov. 23).

    In non-holiday fare, Disney has three upcoming Doctor Who specials celebrating the iconic sci-fi series’ 60th anniversary. The first, “Doctor Who: The Star Beast” (Nov. 25), reunites David Tennant and Catherine Tate, as the Doctor and Donna Noble battle the villainous Toymaker (Neil Patrick Harris), with the other two specials coming in December, when the 15th Doctor (Ncuti Gatwa of “Sex Education”) will be introduced.

    There’s also 2019’s “Spider-Man: Far From Home” (Nov. 3), and new episodes of “Loki” (finale Nov. 9), “Goosebumps” (finale Nov. 17) and “Dancing With the Stars.”

    Who’s Disney+ for? Families with kids, hardcore “Star Wars” and Marvel fans. For people not in those groups, Disney’s
    DIS,
    -0.64%
     library can be lacking.

    Play, pause or stop? Stop. After a recent price hike, there’s just not enough to justify a subscription (unless your kids will absolutely melt down without it).

    Peacock ($5.99 a month with ads, or $11.99 with no ads)

    It’s a pretty bleak month for Peacock originals, with only the reality dating spinoff “Love Island Games” (Nov. 1); “Please Don’t Destroy: The Treasure of Foggy Mountain” (Nov. 17), the first movie from the “SNL” comedy trio; and Season 2 of the Paris Hilton reality series “Paris in Love” (Nov. 30).

    It’s a bit brighter on the sports side, with Big Ten college basketball starting Nov. 6, Big Ten college football every Saturday, NFL Sunday Night Football and a full slate of English Premier League soccer, golf, motorsports and winter sports.

    And on Thanksgiving (Nov. 23), Peacock will stream the annual Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade, the National Dog Show and an NFL game, as the 49ers play the Seahawks.

    Who’s Peacock for? Live sports and next-day shows from Comcast’s 
    CMCSA,
    +1.28%
     NBCUniversal are the main draw, but there’s a good library of shows and movies.

    Play, pause or stop? Stop. The live-sports offerings are the only lure.

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  • The happiest country in the world? This Finnish company with a 10% lifetime employee turnover shows their real secret is trust

    The happiest country in the world? This Finnish company with a 10% lifetime employee turnover shows their real secret is trust

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    As the metrics of the World Happiness Report demonstrate, Finnish happiness is ultimately underpinned by values–like social support and freedom–that are created by trust.

    Indeed, there is no point in chasing happiness. What really counts is cultivating a culture that supports long-term well-being. And that’s what Finns do particularly well. 

    Finland is a high-trust society, and Finns trust their institutions and their fellow citizens. That same trust extends to the workplace and is visible in how employees trust their leaders and their colleagues.

    At Framery, a global company headquartered in Tampere, Finland, we prioritize trust in everything we do. It’s also why as a 400+-employee firm we’ve had less than 10% global turnover in all the years we’ve been in business–and why we’ve maintained market leadership in our sector. Trust drives results.

    However, it’s important to remember that trust must be earned over time, and that it is easily lost. Here are five critical ways we foster trust in our organization–principles that we believe can work at any level, for any team, in any corporation.

    Enforce 8-hour days

    Many workplaces have exciting policies like unlimited vacation days or four-day work weeks that on the surface seem to promise exceptional employee work-life balance. Yet the reality can often be much less cheerful: employees work even longer hours to make up for that extra free time or are afraid to use the benefits in fear of losing out on a promotion. This all chips away at their trust in each other, and in the company.

    At our firm, we have fairly normal vacation policies, but what’s different is that we make sure not to glorify all-nighters. We enforce strict rules around maximum working hours. All overtime hours must be taken as leave, and there is a set annual paid two-week vacation guaranteed for all new hires. The idea is that everyone, regardless of title, gets equal treatment and time to rest.

    By staying firm in our enforcement of vacation time and 8-hour working days, we demonstrate to our people that we stand by our policies and that they can trust us to look after their rights and well-being.

    Destroy closed doors

    In large corporations, there are usually layers upon layers of secrecy. Who gets invited to which meeting determines who’s privy to what information. That can create suspicion, distrust, and even paranoia.

    At our company, critical information is shared freely and often, everyone’s calendars are openly accessible to everyone else as a default, and full company financial reports are distributed to every employee once a month.

    Not only does this openness form the basis for company-wide trust, but it is also beneficial in guiding employees toward value creation. Our mission and goals make more sense when all our employees have the full picture of where we’re headed. With a free flow of critical information, our people can better self-direct their work toward communally beneficial outcomes.

    Unleash entrepreneurs

    Remote and hybrid work have brought about a greater variance in ways of working than ever before. The urge for many leaders now is to control and standardize those ways of working. Policies abound on how and where employees should work, demanding staff to, for example, come to the office on designated days of the week.

    This kind of micromanagement is unnecessary and detrimental to trust. At our company, we let teams decide how they operate. That can mean fully remote, hybrid, or fully in-person work–whatever working style and method fit best. What matters more than where and how is the overall direction of our efforts. 

    Management decides where we’re going, but we have a policy of empowerment in letting teams and individuals determine how we get there. Employees know better than the CEO how to structure their work and drive results. Different tasks require different environments and tools, and top-down mandates therefore often do more harm than good.

    Stop spying on employees

    Remote work has led to an increase in employee surveillance. Employees are finding out about corporate tracking of their work hours, emails, systems use, and more–all of it secret. 

    This corporate spying destroys trust. If employers are suspicious of their staff, then employees become wary of their employers too. Many workers become more occupied with gaming the tracking system than doing actual work. In fact, research shows that employee-monitoring software actually makes employees more likely to break rules, as the employees subconsciously begin to feel less in control of their own behavior.

    We believe employee data should only be used in employees’ favor, not against them. In an organization rooted in real trust, how people perform their work shouldn’t matter at all. We measure our people based not on how much work they put in, but on the results they generate.

    That also means our employees don’t have to ask supervisors to approve their hours: Whatever hours have counted as overtime can be freely used to shorten other workdays. We trust our employees to put in the right amount of hours without monitoring their every move.

    Maximize job security

    No matter what policies and freedoms are in place, trust in organizations is still ultimately fragile. It can be destroyed in an instant with something like surprise layoffs. If people feel replaceable, then they will never trust the company fully, and will always keep an eye out for ways to jump ship.

    We believe laying off employees should be avoided at all costs. We made a company-wide commitment at the beginning of the pandemic to not let any of our employees go. Instead, we invested in research and development and new processes–in our people. It wasn’t easy. The losses were deep. But we all committed to finding ways to cut costs together, and it paid off in the end: not only did we return to profitability but we also ultimately protected the foundation of all of the trust in our organization.

    When people aren’t afraid of being let go, they can begin to trust their leaders and co-workers in a whole new way. Suddenly everything clicks into place: honest feedback can be more freely given and received, information can flow more openly, and no excessive monitoring or management of ways of working is needed. Employees commit to the work and continuously do their best.

    The trust that’s given to employees will be returned tenfold–or even hundredfold. Everyone wins.

    Anni Hallila is the head of people and culture at Framery.

    More must-read commentary published by Fortune:

    The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

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  • Sluggish EV and auto sales could continue next year, based on what these chip makers just said

    Sluggish EV and auto sales could continue next year, based on what these chip makers just said

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    A couple of lesser-known chip companies and a battery maker have confirmed growing fears among investors about the slowdown in electric-vehicle and overall auto sales, which appears likely to continue into next year.

    Monday was loaded with bad news from companies that make industrial chips for the auto industry, as earnings reports from On Semiconductor Corp.
    ON,
    -21.77%
    in the morning and Lattice Semiconductor Inc.
    LSCC,
    -4.05%
    in the afternoon disappointed Wall Street with their forecasts.

    If inflation and high interest rates continue into next year, which is feasible, the slump in auto sales is expected to continue.

    “We think it will carry through into the first part of next year, with most cycles running six to nine months,” said David Williams, an analyst with Benchmark who had predicted that the outlook for On Semi would have to be tempered.  “However, the reduced consumer buying power and overall macro backdrop will likely keep buyers on the sidelines for the next couple of quarters.”

    On Semi said that because of the shortfall in an order from one unnamed automotive customer in Europe, it now expects to ship $200 million less this year of its silicon carbide chips, which are used in EVs. The company did not give further details on its customer, but pointed out that at $800 million, its 2023 revenue will still be four times higher than 2022.

    Last year, On Semi touted a new plant in Hudson, N.H., to make chips out of silicon carbide, an energy-efficient semiconductor material made of silicon and carbon, and predicted those chips would exceed $1 billion in sales in 2023.

    “EVs are going to grow,” On Semi Chief Executive Hassane El-Khoury said Monday. “They’re going to grow for us in the fourth quarter as well. It’s just not going to grow in the fourth quarter at the rate that we expected… I think EVs are a long-term growth opportunity — even with the backdrop of a lot of the headlines that we’re seeing, customer designs have not slowed down.”

    Even as company executives spun the positives, investors were rattled and On’s shares tumbled nearly 22%. Lattice Semiconductor also disappointed Wall Street with its outlook for the fourth quarter. Lattice sells chips that are used in advanced driver-assistance systems in cars, and shares tumbled 13% in extended trading after its fourth-quarter outlook came in lower than expected, due to fewer customers in Asia.

    “In the last kind of four to six weeks of Q3, we started to see demand soften from our industrial and automotive customers,” Lattice CEO Jim Anderson told analysts. “I would say that it was really localized to the Asia geography, and we expect that softness we started to see at the end of Q3 extend into the current quarter.”

    In addition, Tesla Inc.’s battery partner, Panasonic Holdings
    6752,
    -8.35%
    of Japan, said it was slashing its production by 60% due to slower sales of some models to Tesla. That fueled a 4.8% drop in Tesla stock
    TSLA,
    -4.79%    ,
    to its lowest close since late May. Investors have been nervous about the EV market, especially after Ford
    F,
    -1.91%
    executives said last week that consumers were unwilling right now to pay a premium for EVs.

    Semiconductor companies are often harbingers of future end-product demand in a wide variety of industries. Now that automakers use so many semiconductors, they can also be a big indicator of auto demand, especially in the hot arena of EVs. And those indicators don’t look good in the short term.

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  • Financial advisers make rich people richer. But is that all there is?

    Financial advisers make rich people richer. But is that all there is?

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    In 1989, author Marsha Sinetar wrote a bestselling book, “Do What You Love, The Money Will Follow.” She urges readers to pursue a career that stokes their passion.

    Many advisers take that advice. They love what they do. And the money follows: Median pay for U.S. financial advisers was $95,390 in 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    Lately, though, the passion is waning for some advisers. They still love the practice of wealth management — customizing financial plans, constructing client portfolios and analyzing the ever-growing menu of investment products.

    They’re just not as enamored of their clients’ wealth. Reassuring wealthy retirees that they can afford to buy a second (or third) vacation home has its merits. But helping them accumulate more and more wealth rings hollow after awhile.

    Steve Oniya, a Houston-based certified financial planner, works with a diverse mix of clients. He enjoys helping them achieve their goals, regardless of their net worth. “It’s more gratifying helping them get over some hurdles to get to the life that they really want,” he said. “You make more of an impact that way.”

    He compares his work to a firefighter’s job. Some days, they rescue people from burning buildings. Other days, they put out a dumpster fire. Yet they’re always driven to excel and perform at a high level.

    Nevertheless, if an adviser serves rich clients who hoard their money, don’t give to charity and lack perspective on what matters most in life, a day at the office can feel dispiriting. “Sometimes advisers may be passionately opposed to certain clients’ values,” Oniya said. “In those instances, end the relationship or limit the scope.”

    Oniya said he does not find clients’ wealth objectionable. He sees his role as an ally who seeks to understand — and not judge — others’ beliefs and values.

    “I like to stay in the neutral camp,” Oniya said. “It’s easy to empathize with another person and see they are a person who needs help just like others. We’re generally here to advise them on how to be more efficient and effective financially in attaining their goals.”

    The arc of an adviser’s career comes into play as well. To build a practice, newly minted financial planners might welcome pretty much anyone with sufficient assets.

    Once they establish a stable book of business, advisers may get picky in deciding whom to serve. Their onboarding process might get more rigorous in an effort to determine if they’re aligned with a potential client’s aspirations, goals and priorities.

    Some advisers shift gears as they gain experience working with different types of clients. They come to realize what they like most about the job and adjust their practice — and the type of clients they serve — accordingly.

    “Everyone evolves,” said Angeli Gianchandani, a professor of marketing at University of New Haven’s Pompea College of Business. “Advisers may see there’s a greater reward and opportunity helping people in a different income bracket.”

    As a self-test, advisers at a career crossroads might want to ask themselves how they’d respond to two clients. The first one says, “You saved me $5 million. Now I want to save $10 million to buy a bigger yacht.”

    The other says, “You helped me pay off my student debt” or “You helped me save enough for a down payment to buy my first house.”

    “You may feel more valued and appreciated as an adviser” if you pave the way for someone who lacks vast wealth to build a nest egg for the future, Gianchandani says.

    Advisers who have misgivings about helping wealthy people attain greater wealth are not alone. Brooke Harrington, a sociology professor at Dartmouth College, interviewed 65 wealth managers between 2007 and 2015. About one-quarter expressed qualms about helping lower ultra-wealthy clients’ tax liabilities.

    Still, another 25% did not feel such qualms. They saw their role as defending their clients from an unjust tax code.

    More: Wall Street legend Byron Wien dies at 90. Here are his ’20 life lessons’

    Also read: The IRS is auditing the rich. Can you fly under the radar if you’re not wealthy?

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  • AI stole the show this year, but earnings will drag Wall Street back to reality

    AI stole the show this year, but earnings will drag Wall Street back to reality

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    Nearly a year ago, OpenAI released ChatGPT 3 into the world, and investors got visions of dollar signs in their heads as they imagined the ways that artificial intelligence could make big money for businesses.

    Wall Street’s now coming to terms with the fact that those sorts of paydays are going to take time. As investors have already seen from the past two quarters of earnings, AI has only really delivered financial benefits for a select few hardware companies so far — while spurring new costs for many others.

    “The AI boom has already bifurcated into the contenders and pretenders,” said Daniel Newman, chief executive and principal analyst of Futurum Research. And while Advanced Micro Devices Inc., Intel Corp. and Arm Holdings PLC
    ARM,
    +0.38%
    have stirred up interest, Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    -4.68%
    has established itself as far and away the greatest “contender,” with AI driving strong demand for its chips tuned for AI training.

    Nvidia last quarter reported record earnings, including a 141% jump in revenue for its graphics chips used in AI infrastructure building up data centers. Nvidia, which reports near the end of earnings season on Nov. 21, posted record revenue of $13.5 billion last quarter and is expected to easily top that with $16 billion in the most recent quarter, a surge of 170% versus a year ago. Those estimates include $12.3 billion of revenue coming from data-center sales.

    Other chip companies could post gains from AI as well, but to far lesser extents. Candidates include Broadcom Corp.
    AVGO,
    -2.01%
    and system maker Super Micro Computer Inc.
    SMCI,
    +2.35%    ,
    as well as Marvell Technology Inc.
    MRVL,
    -0.91%    ,
    which last quarter told analysts that it expects to end the year at a revenue run rate of about $800 million this year from cloud/data-center chips related to AI.

    “This is well above what we had outlined last quarter. Put this in perspective: This would put us at the run rate we had previously communicated for all of next year,” Marvel Chief Executive Matthew Murphy told analysts.

    Super Micro is also riding the AI wave with its customized data-center servers that are designed to consume less power. But revenue in the September quarter is forecast to rise just 15% from a year ago and drop on a sequential basis, as supply constraints from Nvidia likely hampered Super Micro’s ability to meet all its demand.

    Much as Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
    AMD,
    -1.24%
    and Intel Corp.
    INTC,
    -1.37%
    want to be in the AI conversations with the graphics chips they hope will be used for AI data-center applications, they won’t see much of an impact yet from AI revenue. Plus, those companies are experiencing a slowdown in PC sales that may overshadow any small benefit from AI chips.

    The AI boom in chips is clearly not providing enough of a boost to lift finances for the overall semiconductor sector, which is forecast to see earnings fall 3.3% in the third quarter and post a revenue decline of 0.6%, according to FactSet. The industry is being dragged down in part by Micron Technology Inc.
    MU,
    -0.12%    ,
    which reported a 40% drop in revenue and a whopping fiscal fourth-quarter loss in late September for the quarter ended Aug. 31, which is included in FactSet’s third-quarter data. Even so, the company called a bottom to the memory-chip downturn.

    Read also: Micron’s AI focused chip won’t help financial results anytime soon.

    “Most of the consumer-based tech is still struggling, [including] PCs, laptops and to a certain extent smartphones,” said Daniel Morgan, senior portfolio manager at Synovus Trust Co. Wall Street has tempered expectations related to the impact of Apple Inc.’s
    AAPL,
    -0.88%
    iPhone 15 launch on the quarter, as estimates call for an overall 1% drop in September-quarter revenue. Last quarter, Apple executives forecast that both Mac and iPad sales would be down by double-digits and that revenue performance would be similar to its June quarter, when revenue fell 1.3%

    In addition, when asked about AI, Apple CEO Tim Cook said the company views AI and machine learning “as core fundamental technologies that are integral to virtually every product that we build.” Those comments, though, can also apply to the bulk of tech companies, where AI is built into software as another layer to improve a product. Internet companies such as Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    +0.89%
    and Alphabet Inc.
    GOOG,
    +0.36%

    GOOGL,
    +0.45%
    incorporate AI into their software and algorithms but don’t treat it as a specific, revenue-generating product.

    Other software companies are building AI into their products as separate features or add-ons, but they are still in the early stages of seeing whether or not customers will pay more for them. Take Microsoft Corp.,
    MSFT,
    -0.17%
    which has showed off Copilot, an extra AI feature for customers of Microsoft 365.

    “[Microsoft] can distinguish itself by providing more details around its AI revenue
    ramp since we don’t expect much information from Google, who really doesn’t seem
    to have the monetization plan for Bard and AI-assisted search (SGE) ready to
    articulate yet,” Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes said in a note to clients this week. He also noted that the cost of offering AI products to consumers is steep, and requires lots of investment.

    “There are sophisticated issues to contend with for Microsoft, including balancing the potential for higher revenue from Copilots with the high costs per query and much-needed investment,” Reitzes said. “The balance of AI adoption vs. cost was implied when Microsoft guided to flat operating margins year over year for fiscal 2024.”

    Earlier this year, the Information reported that OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT and recipient of a hefty investment from Microsoft, has costs of up to $700,000 a day, because the massive amounts of computing power needed to run queries. In February, OpenAI launched ChatGPT Plus, for $20 a month, a service that will give subscribers access to its AI during peak times and faster response times.

    Another example is Adobe Inc.
    ADBE,
    +1.70%    ,
    which has a few AI offerings, including a subscription service called Generative Credits, tokens that let customers turn text-based prompts into images. Another is Firefly, a generative AI service for images, and an AI option in Photoshop, currently called Photoshop Beta AI, to help users fill in images and other collaborative tools. Adobe did not provide any forecasts on potential revenue generation during its analyst day earlier this month.

    Toni Sacconaghi, a Bernstein Research analyst, said AI could drive a massive increase in enterprise productivity, and companies could dramatically increase IT spending on servers in order to invest in productivity-enhancing AI. “However, we note that enterprise adoption appears to be in early stages,” he said in a recent note to clients, adding that it was feasible that spending on AI infrastructure could take money away from other IT projects in process. “We do worry that projected AI infrastructure build out may be occurring too quickly, necessitating a digestion period, which could result in a commensurate stock pullback in AI-related names.”

    Overall, the information-technology sector itself is expected to see anemic revenue growth this quarter. The consensus on FactSet forecasts a meager 1.35% revenue uptick in the third quarter, with earnings growth of 4.65%. FactSet’s estimates for IT companies exclude internet companies like Meta and Alphabet, which are under the category of communications/interactive media services. That sector is expected to see sales growth of 12%, and earnings growth of 51%, thanks to a 116% boost in Meta’s net income, after it hit a low point in the year-ago quarter.

    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    -0.81%    ,
    in the category of consumer discretionary/broadline retail, is forecast to see earnings growth of 109%, and revenue growth of 11%. Amazon’s cloud services business, AWS, is expected to also see a potential uplift from customers spending money on AI projects, according to a TD Cowen & Co. survey, in which 41% of respondents said they were “highly considering” allocating a budget for generative AI.

    “This trend could bode well for Amazon’s AWS,” TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge said in a recent report, adding that he expects AWS revenue growth to reaccelerate in the second half of this year and in 2024, boosted by the move of additional workloads to the cloud, possibly including generative AI.

    As companies build up their infrastructure, or their spending on cloud computing to add or improve AI capabilities, they are seeing higher costs, which is affecting margins — especially if revenue has slowed down, as it has in some sectors. Across both the broader S&P 500
    SPX,
    and the IT sector, earnings are lower than a year ago.

    As Newman of Futurum pointed out, “AI stole the budget this year.” And that is a mixed bag for tech.

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  • These are the biggest money mistakes we make in our 20s, 30s and 40s

    These are the biggest money mistakes we make in our 20s, 30s and 40s

    [ad_1]

    Financial literacy peaks at age 54, according to a 2022 study. That’s around the time you’ve gained enough knowledge and experience to make sound money decisions — and before your cognitive ability might start to ebb.

    “As we get older, we seem to rely more on past experience, rules of thumb, and intuitive knowledge about which products and strategies are better,” said Rafal Chomik, an economist in Australia who led the study.

    If people in their mid-50s tend to make smart financial moves, where does that leave younger generations?

    Advisers often educate clients at different stages of life to avoid money mistakes. While those in their 50s usually demonstrate optimal prudence  in navigating investments and savings, advisers keep busy helping others — from twentysomethings to mid-career professionals — avoid costly financial blunders:

    Navigate your 20s

    Perhaps the biggest blunder for young earners is spending too much and saving too little. They may also lack the long-term perspective that encourages long-range planning.

    “The mistake is not establishing the saving habit early, and not appreciating the power of compounding” over time, said Mark Kravietz, a certified financial planner in Melville, N.Y.

    Similarly, it’s common for young workers to delay enrolling in an employer-sponsored retirement plan. Not participating from the get-go comes with a steep long-term cost.

    “ Better to prioritize debt with the highest interest rate, which can result in paying less interest over the long run. ”

    People in their 20s process incoming information quickly. But their high level of fluid intelligence can work against them. Cursory research into a consumer trend or hot sector of the stock market can spur them to make rash investments. Such impulsive moves might backfire.

    “It’s important to resist the hype,” Kravietz said. “Don’t chase fads or try to make fast money” by timing the market.

    Many young adults with student debt juggle multiple loans. Eager to chip away at their debt, they fall into the trap of choosing the wrong loan to tackle first, says Megan Kowalski, an adviser in Boca Raton, Fla.

    Rather than pay off the highest-interest rate loan first (so-called avalanche debt), they mistakenly focus on the smallest loan (a.k.a. snowball debt). It’s better to prioritize debt with the highest interest rate, which can result in paying less interest over the long run.

    Navigate your 30s

    “ Resist the temptation to lower your 401(k) contribution to boost your take-home pay. ”

    By your 30s, insurance grows in importance. You want to protect what you have — now and in the future. But many people in this age group neglect their insurance needs. Or they misunderstand which coverages matter most.

    “If you have a life partner and kids, get the proper life insurance while in your 30s,” Kravietz said. 

    It’s easy to get caught up in your career and assume you can put off life insurance. But even low odds of your untimely death doesn’t mean you can ignore the risk of leaving your loved ones without a cash cushion.

    Another common blunder involves disability insurance. If your employer offers short-term disability insurance as an employee perk, you may think you’re all set.

    However, the real risk is how you’d earn income if you suffer a serious and lasting illness or injury. Don’t confuse short-term disability insurance (which might cover you for as long as one year) with long-term disability coverage that pays benefits for many years.

    Assuming you were wise enough to enroll in your employer-sponsored retirement plan from the outset, don’t slough off in your 30s. Resist the temptation to lower your 401(k) contribution to boost your take-home pay.

    “You want to give till it hurts,” Kravietz said. “Keep putting money away” in your 401(k) or other tax-advantaged plan until you feel a sting. Weigh the minor pain you feel now against the major relief of having a much bigger nest egg decades from now.

    Navigate your 40s

    “ ‘The 40s are often the most expensive in anyone’s life. Life is getting more complicated.’”

    For Kravietz, the 40s represent a decade of heavy spending pressures. Mid-career professionals face a mortgage and mounting tuition bills for their children.

    “The 40s are often the most expensive in anyone’s life,” he said. “Life is getting more complicated.”

    As a result, it’s easy to overlook seemingly minor financial matters like updating beneficiaries on your 401(k) plan or completing all the appropriate estate documents such as a will.

    “People in their 40s sometimes fail to update beneficiaries,” Kravietz said. For example, a new marriage might mean changing the beneficiary from a prior partner or current parent to the new spouse.

    It’s also easy to get complacent about your investments, especially if you’re the conservative type who favors a set-it-and-forget-it strategy. Instead, think in terms of tax optimization.

    “In your 40s, you want to take advantage of what the government gives you,” Kravietz said. “If you have a lot of money in a bank money market account and you’re in a top tax bracket, shifting some of that money into municipal bonds can make sense” depending on your state of residence and other factors.

    If you’re saving for a child’s college tuition using a 529 plan — and you have parents who also want to chip in — work together to strategize. Don’t make assumptions about how much (or how little) your parents might contribute to your kid’s education.

    “Rather than assume you’ll have to pay a certain amount for educational expenses, coordinate between generations of parents and grandparents” on how much they intend to give, Kowalski said. “That way, you’re not duplicating efforts and you won’t put extra funds in a 529 plan.”

    More: 7 more ways to save that you may not have considered

    Also read: ‘We live a rather lavish lifestyle’: My wife and I are 33, live in New York City and earn $270,000. Can we retire at 55?

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  • These are the biggest money mistakes we make in our 20s, 30s and 40s

    These are the biggest money mistakes we make in our 20s, 30s and 40s

    [ad_1]

    Financial literacy peaks at age 54, according to a 2022 study. That’s around the time you’ve gained enough knowledge and experience to make sound money decisions — and before your cognitive ability might start to ebb.

    “As we get older, we seem to rely more on past experience, rules of thumb, and intuitive knowledge about which products and strategies are better,” said Rafal Chomik, an economist in Australia who led the study.

    If people in their mid-50s tend to make smart financial moves, where does that leave younger generations?

    Advisers often educate clients at different stages of life to avoid money mistakes. While those in their 50s usually demonstrate optimal prudence  in navigating investments and savings, advisers keep busy helping others — from twentysomethings to mid-career professionals — avoid costly financial blunders:

    Navigate your 20s

    Perhaps the biggest blunder for young earners is spending too much and saving too little. They may also lack the long-term perspective that encourages long-range planning.

    “The mistake is not establishing the saving habit early, and not appreciating the power of compounding” over time, said Mark Kravietz, a certified financial planner in Melville, N.Y.

    Similarly, it’s common for young workers to delay enrolling in an employer-sponsored retirement plan. Not participating from the get-go comes with a steep long-term cost.

    “ Better to prioritize debt with the highest interest rate, which can result in paying less interest over the long run. ”

    People in their 20s process incoming information quickly. But their high level of fluid intelligence can work against them. Cursory research into a consumer trend or hot sector of the stock market can spur them to make rash investments. Such impulsive moves might backfire.

    “It’s important to resist the hype,” Kravietz said. “Don’t chase fads or try to make fast money” by timing the market.

    Many young adults with student debt juggle multiple loans. Eager to chip away at their debt, they fall into the trap of choosing the wrong loan to tackle first, says Megan Kowalski, an adviser in Boca Raton, Fla.

    Rather than pay off the highest-interest rate loan first (so-called avalanche debt), they mistakenly focus on the smallest loan (a.k.a. snowball debt). It’s better to prioritize debt with the highest interest rate, which can result in paying less interest over the long run.

    Navigate your 30s

    “ Resist the temptation to lower your 401(k) contribution to boost your take-home pay. ”

    By your 30s, insurance grows in importance. You want to protect what you have — now and in the future. But many people in this age group neglect their insurance needs. Or they misunderstand which coverages matter most.

    “If you have a life partner and kids, get the proper life insurance while in your 30s,” Kravietz said. 

    It’s easy to get caught up in your career and assume you can put off life insurance. But even low odds of your untimely death doesn’t mean you can ignore the risk of leaving your loved ones without a cash cushion.

    Another common blunder involves disability insurance. If your employer offers short-term disability insurance as an employee perk, you may think you’re all set.

    However, the real risk is how you’d earn income if you suffer a serious and lasting illness or injury. Don’t confuse short-term disability insurance (which might cover you for as long as one year) with long-term disability coverage that pays benefits for many years.

    Assuming you were wise enough to enroll in your employer-sponsored retirement plan from the outset, don’t slough off in your 30s. Resist the temptation to lower your 401(k) contribution to boost your take-home pay.

    “You want to give till it hurts,” Kravietz said. “Keep putting money away” in your 401(k) or other tax-advantaged plan until you feel a sting. Weigh the minor pain you feel now against the major relief of having a much bigger nest egg decades from now.

    Navigate your 40s

    “ ‘The 40s are often the most expensive in anyone’s life. Life is getting more complicated.’”

    For Kravietz, the 40s represent a decade of heavy spending pressures. Mid-career professionals face a mortgage and mounting tuition bills for their children.

    “The 40s are often the most expensive in anyone’s life,” he said. “Life is getting more complicated.”

    As a result, it’s easy to overlook seemingly minor financial matters like updating beneficiaries on your 401(k) plan or completing all the appropriate estate documents such as a will.

    “People in their 40s sometimes fail to update beneficiaries,” Kravietz said. For example, a new marriage might mean changing the beneficiary from a prior partner or current parent to the new spouse.

    It’s also easy to get complacent about your investments, especially if you’re the conservative type who favors a set-it-and-forget-it strategy. Instead, think in terms of tax optimization.

    “In your 40s, you want to take advantage of what the government gives you,” Kravietz said. “If you have a lot of money in a bank money market account and you’re in a top tax bracket, shifting some of that money into municipal bonds can make sense” depending on your state of residence and other factors.

    If you’re saving for a child’s college tuition using a 529 plan — and you have parents who also want to chip in — work together to strategize. Don’t make assumptions about how much (or how little) your parents might contribute to your kid’s education.

    “Rather than assume you’ll have to pay a certain amount for educational expenses, coordinate between generations of parents and grandparents” on how much they intend to give, Kowalski said. “That way, you’re not duplicating efforts and you won’t put extra funds in a 529 plan.”

    More: 7 more ways to save that you may not have considered

    Also read: ‘We live a rather lavish lifestyle’: My wife and I are 33, live in New York City and earn $270,000. Can we retire at 55?

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  • Dividend stocks are dirt cheap. It may be time to back up the truck.

    Dividend stocks are dirt cheap. It may be time to back up the truck.

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    The stock market always overreacts, and this year it seems as if investors believe dividend stocks have become toxic. But a look at yields on quality dividend stocks relative to the market underlines what may be an excellent opportunity for long-term investors to pursue growth with an income stream that builds up over the years.

    The current environment, in which you can get a yield of more than 5% yield on your cash at a bank or lock in a yield of 4.57% on a10-year U.S. Treasury note
    BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    or close to 5% on a 20-year Treasury bond
    BX:TMUBMUSD20Y
    seems to have made some investors forget two things: A stock’s dividend payout can rise over the long term, and so can it is price.

    It is never fun to see your portfolio underperform during a broad market swing. And people have a tendency to prefer jumping on a trend hoping to keep riding it, rather than taking advantage of opportunities brought about by price declines. We may be at such a moment for quality dividend stocks, based on their yields relative to that of the benchmark S&P 500
    SPX.

    Drew Justman of Madison Funds explained during an interview with MarketWatch how he and John Brown, who co-manage the Madison Dividend Income Fund, BHBFX MDMIX and the new Madison Dividend Value ETF
    DIVL,
    use relative dividend yields as part of their screening process for stocks. He said he has never seen such yields, when compared with that of the broad market, during 20 years of work as a securities analyst and portfolio manager.

    Dividend stocks are down

    Before diving in, we can illustrate the market’s current loathing of dividend stocks by comparing the performance of the Schwab U.S. Equity ETF
    SCHD,
    which tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index, with that of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
    SPY.
    Let’s look at a total return chart (with dividends reinvested) starting at the end of 2021, since the Federal Reserve started its cycle of interest rate increases in March 2022:


    FactSet

    The Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index is made up of “high-dividend-yielding stocks in the U.S. with a record of consistently paying dividends, selected for fundamental strength relative to their peers, based on financial ratios,” according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

    The end results for the two ETFs from the end of 2021 through Tuesday are similar. But you can see how the performance pattern has been different, with the dividend stocks holding up well during the stock market’s reaction to the Fed’s move last year, but trailing the market’s recovery as yields on CDs and bonds have become so much more attractive this year. Let’s break down the performance since the end of 2021, this time bringing in the Madison Dividend Income Fund’s Class Y and Class I shares:

    Fund

    		 2023 return

    		 2022 return

    		 Return since the end of 2021
    SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

    		 14.9%

    		 -18.2%

    		 -6.0%
    Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF

    		 -3.8%

    		 -3.2%

    		 -6.9%
    Madison Dividend Income Fund – Class Y

    		 -4.7%

    		 -5.4%

    		 -9.9%
    Madison Dividend Income Fund – Class I

    		 -4.7%

    		 -5.3%

    		 -9.7%
    Source: FactSet

    Dividend stocks held up well during 2022, as the S&P 500 fell more than 18%. But they have been left behind during this year’s rally.

    The Madison Dividend Income Fund was established in 1986. The Class Y shares have annual expenses of 0.91% of assets under management and are rated three stars (out of five) within Morningstar’s “Large Value” fund category. The Class I shares have only been available since 2020. They have a lower expense ratio of 0.81% and are distributed through investment advisers or through platforms such as Schwab, which charges a $50 fee to buy Class I shares.

    The opportunity — high relative yields

    The Madison Dividend Income Fund holds 40 stocks. Justman explained that when he and Brown select stocks for the fund their investible universe begins with the components of the Russell 1000 Index
    RUT,
    which is made up of the largest 1,000 companies by market capitalization listed on U.S. exchanges. Their first cut narrows the list to about 225 stocks with dividend yields of at least 1.1 times that of the index.

    The Madison team calculates a stock’s relative dividend yield by dividing its yield by that of the S&P 500. Let’s do that for the Schwab U.S. Equity ETF
    SCHD
    (because it tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Index) to illustrate the opportunity that Justman highlighted:

    Index or ETF

    		 Dividend yield

    		 5-year Avg. yield 

    		 10-year Avg. yield 

    		 15-year Avg. yield 

    		 Relative yield

    		 5-year Avg. relative yield 

    		 10-year Avg. relative yield 

    		 15-year Avg. relative yield 
    Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF

    		 3.99%

    		 3.41%

    		 3.20%

    		 3.16%

    		 2.6

    		 2.1

    		 1.8

    		 1.6
    S&P 500

    		 1.55%

    		 1.62%

    		 1.79%

    		 1.92%
    Source: FactSet

    The Schwab U.S. Equity ETF’s relative yield is 2.6 — that is, its dividend yield is 2.6 times that of the S&P 500, which is much higher than the long-term averages going back 15 years. If we went back 20 years, the average relative yield would be 1.7.

    Examples of high-quality stocks with high relative dividend yields

    After narrowing down the Russell 1000 to about 225 stocks with relative dividend yields of at least 1.1, Justman and Brown cut further to about 80 companies with a long history of raising dividends and with strong balance sheets, before moving further through a deeper analysis to arrive at a portfolio of about 40 stocks.

    When asked about oil companies and others that pay fixed quarterly dividends plus variable dividends, he said, “We try to reach out to the company and get an estimate of special dividends and try to factor that in.” Two examples of companies held by the fund that pay variable dividends are ConocoPhillips
    COP,
    -0.29%
    and EOG Resources Inc.
    EOG,
    +0.52%    .

    Since the balance-sheet requirement is subjective “almost all fund holdings are investment-grade rated,” Justman said. That refers to credit ratings by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service or Fitch Ratings. He went further, saying about 80% of the fund’s holdings were rated “A-minus or better.” BBB- is the lowest investment-grade rating from S&P. Fidelity breaks down the credit agencies’ ratings hierarchy.

    Justman named nine stocks held by the fund as good examples of quality companies with high relative yields to the S&P 500:

    Company

    		 Ticker

    		 Dividend yield

    		 Relative yield

    		 2023 return

    		 2022 return

    		 Return since the end of 2021
    CME Group Inc. Class A

    		 CME,
    +0.47%         		2.04%

    		 1.3

    		 31%

    		 -23%

    		 1%
    Home Depot, Inc.

    		 HD,
    -0.39%         		2.79%

    		 1.8

    		 -3%

    		 -22%

    		 -25%
    Lowe’s Cos., Inc.

    		 LOW,
    +0.27%         		2.17%

    		 1.4

    		 3%

    		 -21%

    		 -19%
    Morgan Stanley

    		 MS,
    -1.54%         		4.24%

    		 2.7

    		 -3%

    		 -10%

    		 -13%
    U.S. Bancorp

    		 USB,
    -0.25%         		5.89%

    		 3.8

    		 -22%

    		 -19%

    		 -37%
    Medtronic PLC

    		 MDT,
    -4.32%         		3.62%

    		 2.3

    		 1%

    		 -23%

    		 -22%
    Texas Instruments Inc.

    		 TXN,
    -0.21%         		3.30%

    		 2.1

    		 -3%

    		 -10%

    		 -12%
    United Parcel Service Inc. Class B

    		 UPS,
    -0.16%         		4.17%

    		 2.7

    		 -8%

    		 -16%

    		 -23%
    Union Pacific Corp.

    		 UNP,
    +1.52%         		2.52%

    		 1.6

    		 2%

    		 -16%

    		 -15%
    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more about each company, fund or index.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    Now let’s see how these companies have grown their dividend payouts over the past five years. Leaving the companies in the same order, here are compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for dividends.

    Before showing this next set of data, let’s work through one example among the nine stocks:

    • If you had purchased shares of Home Depot Inc.
      HD,
      -0.39%
      five years ago, you would have paid $193.70 a share if you went in at the close on Oct. 10, 2018. At that time, the company’s quarterly dividend was $1.03 cents a share, for an annual dividend rate of $4.12, which made for a then-current yield of 2.13%.

    • If you had held your shares of Home Depot for five years through Tuesday, your quarterly dividend would have increased to $2.09 a share, for a current annual payout of $8.36. The company’s dividend has increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.2% over the past five years. In comparison, the S&P 500’s weighted dividend rate has increased at a CAGR of 6.24% over the past five years, according to FactSet.

    • That annual payout rate of $8.36 would make for a current dividend yield of 2.79% for a new investor who went in at Tuesday’s closing price of $299.22. But if you had not reinvested, the dividend yield on your five-year-old shares (based on what you would have paid for them) would be 4.32%. And your share price would have risen 54%. And if you had reinvested your dividends, your total return for the five years would have been 75%, slightly ahead of the 74% return for the S&P 500 SPX during that period.

    Home Depot hasn’t been the best dividend grower among the nine stocks named by Justman, but it is a good example of how an investor can build income over the long term, while also enjoying capital appreciation.

    Here’s the dividend CAGR comparison for the nine stocks:

    Company

    		 Ticker

    		 Five-year dividend CAGR

    		 Dividend yield on shares purchased five years ago

    		 Dividend yield five years ago

    		 Current dividend yield

    		 Five-year price change

    		 Five-year total return
    CME Group Inc. Class A

    		 CME,
    +0.47%         		9.46%

    		 2.44%

    		 1.55%

    		 2.04%

    		 20%

    		 42%
    Home Depot Inc.

    		 HD,
    -0.39%         		15.20%

    		 4.32%

    		 2.13%

    		 2.79%

    		 54%

    		 75%
    Lowe’s Cos, Inc.

    		 LOW,
    +0.27%         		18.04%

    		 4.14%

    		 1.81%

    		 2.17%

    		 91%

    		 109%
    Morgan Stanley

    		 MS,
    -1.54%         		23.16%

    		 7.62%

    		 2.69%

    		 4.24%

    		 80%

    		 108%
    U.S. Bancorp

    		 USB,
    -0.25%         		5.34%

    		 3.60%

    		 2.78%

    		 5.89%

    		 -39%

    		 -26%
    Medtronic PLC

    		 MDT,
    -4.32%         		6.65%

    		 2.90%

    		 2.10%

    		 3.62%

    		 -20%

    		 -9%
    Texas Instruments Inc.

    		 TXN,
    -0.21%         		11.04%

    		 5.24%

    		 3.10%

    		 3.30%

    		 59%

    		 82%
    United Parcel Service Inc. Class B

    		 UPS,
    -0.16%         		12.23%

    		 5.56%

    		 3.12%

    		 4.17%

    		 33%

    		 56%
    Union Pacific Corp.

    		 UNP,
    +1.52%         		10.20%

    		 3.37%

    		 2.07%

    		 2.52%

    		 34%

    		 49%
    Source: FactSet

    This isn’t to say that Justman and Brown have held all of these stocks over the past five years. In fact, Lowe’s Cos.
    LOW,
    +0.27%
    was added to the portfolio this year, as was United Parcel Service Inc.
    UPS,
    -0.16%    .
    But for most of these companies, dividends have compounded at relatively high rates.

    When asked to name an example of a stock the fund had sold, Justman said he and Brown decided to part ways with Verizon Communications Inc.
    VZ,
    -0.94%
    last year, “as we became concerned about its fundamental competitive position in its industry.”

    Summing up the scene for dividend stocks, Justman said, “It seems this year the market is treating dividend stocks as fixed-income instruments. We think that is a short-term issue and that this is a great opportunity.”

    Don’t miss: How to tell if it is worth avoiding taxes with a municipal-bond ETF

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  • Here’s the real reason the stock market is so horrid. And, yes, it’s rather spooky.

    Here’s the real reason the stock market is so horrid. And, yes, it’s rather spooky.

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    Some say it’s the fear of stagflation.

    Some say it’s chaos on Capitol Hill.

    Some say it’s turmoil in the Middle East.

    But we all know the real reason the stock market is so crummy, right?

    It’s October! Of course stocks are down!

    It is a bizarre, inexplicable, and yet undeniable, fact that, throughout history, Wall Street has produced almost all of its gains during the winter months of the year — from Nov. 1 to April 30. It is an even more bizarre, inexplicable and yet undeniable fact that the rest of the world’s stock markets have done the same thing.

    The so-called summer months, meaning the half of the year from May 1 to Halloween, have generally given you bupkis or worse. 

    Around the world, over the course of centuries of recorded financial history, stock-market returns have averaged four full percentage points higher from November to April than from May to October, report researchers Ben Jacobsen at Tilburg University and Cherry Yi Zhang at Nottingham University’s Business School in China. This so-called Halloween Effect seems “remarkably robust,” they concluded, after studying the financial returns of 114 different countries going back as far as they could find reliable monthly data — starting with the stock market in 1693 London. 

    Even more extreme: In the 65 countries for which they had extensive data both about the stock market and about short-term interest rates, it’s fair to say you would have been better off selling your stocks on May 1, putting the money in the bank, then taking it out again at the end of October and buying back your stocks (ignoring fees and taxes, of course).

    “In none of the 65 countries for which we have total returns and short-term interest rates available — with the exception of Mauritius — can we reject a Sell in May effect based on our new test. Only for Mauritius do we find evidence of significantly positive excess returns during summer.”

    Italics mine. Mauritius? 

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    is now lower than it was at the end of April. So is the Russell 2000
    RUT
    index of small-cap U.S. stocks. The benchmark international stock index, the MSCI EAFE, is down about 6%. Japan’s Nikkei
    NIY00,
    +1.90%
    is slightly up, as the yen has tanked.

    The S&P 500
    SPX
    is hanging on to a small gain, but that is only because of the early summer gains of a few tech titans. The average S&P stock is down about 2.5% since the end of April — while an investment in no-risk Treasury bills is up more than 2%.

    Meanwhile, let the record show that, over the same period, according to the record keepers at MSCI, the stock market in Mauritius is up 12%.

    Booyah!

    Every time I write about this Halloween or “sell in May” effect, I make the same two points, and I make no apologies for repeating them here, because they are unavoidable.

    The first is that, every spring, after looking at this data, I am tempted to sell all my stocks at the end of April, and every year I don’t, because I think it’s absolutely ridiculous. (And someone on Wall Street who is much smarter than me usually persuades me not to.) And most years I end up kicking myself for not doing it.

    The second is to recall the old economists’ joke: “I don’t care if it works in practice! Does it work in theory?” Selling in May — or, sure, the Halloween Effect — has absolutely no reason that anyone can find for working in theory. But apparently, it works in practice — which is pretty much where we are now.

    Does this mean stocks are going to rally? It’s anyone’s guess. It would be crazy if it were that simple. But, then, the whole Halloween Effect is crazy.

    If history is any guide, now is the time to buy stocks, not sell them, because the next six months are likely to be the time when they make you money. And if history isn’t any guide, well, aren’t we all sunk anyway?

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  • These 20 stocks in the S&P 500 are expected to soar after rising interest rates have pushed down valuations

    These 20 stocks in the S&P 500 are expected to soar after rising interest rates have pushed down valuations

    [ad_1]

    Two things investors can be sure about: Nothing lasts forever and the stock market always overreacts. The spiking of yields on long-term U.S. Treasury securities has been breathtaking, and it has led to remarkable declines for some sectors and possible bargains for contrarian investors who can commit for the long term.

    First we will show how the sectors of the S&P 500

    have performed. Then we will look at price-to-earnings valuations for the sectors and compare them to long-term averages. Then we will screen the entire index for companies trading below their long-term forward P/E valuation averages and narrow the list to companies most favored by analysts.

    Here are total returns, with dividends reinvested, for the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, with broad indexes below. The sectors are sorted by ascending total returns this year through Monday.

    Sector or index

    		 2023 return

    		 2022 return

    		 Return since end of 2021

    		 1 week return

    		 1 month return
    Utilities

    		 -18.4%

    		 1.6%

    		 -17.2%

    		 -11.1%

    		 -9.6%
    Real Estate

    		 -7.1%

    		 -26.1%

    		 -31.4%

    		 -3.0%

    		 -8.8%
    Consumer Staples

    		 -5.4%

    		 -0.6%

    		 -6.0%

    		 -2.2%

    		 -4.4%
    Healthcare

    		 -4.2%

    		 -2.0%

    		 -6.1%

    		 -1.7%

    		 -3.3%
    Financials

    		 -2.5%

    		 -10.5%

    		 -12.7%

    		 -2.5%

    		 -4.7%
    Materials

    		 1.3%

    		 -12.3%

    		 -11.2%

    		 -1.9%

    		 -7.0%
    Industrials

    		 3.5%

    		 -5.5%

    		 -2.1%

    		 -1.8%

    		 -7.3%
    Energy

    		 4.0%

    		 65.7%

    		 72.4%

    		 -1.9%

    		 -1.4%
    Consumer Discretionary

    		 27.0%

    		 -37.0%

    		 -20.0%

    		 -0.6%

    		 -5.2%
    Information Technology

    		 36.5%

    		 -28.2%

    		 -2.0%

    		 0.8%

    		 -5.9%
    Communication Services

    		 42.5%

    		 -39.9%

    		 -14.3%

    		 1.1%

    		 -1.3%
    S&P 500
    		 13.1%

    		 -18.1%

    		 -7.4%

    		 -1.1%

    		 -4.9%
    DJ Industrial Average
    		 2.5%

    		 -6.9%

    		 -4.5%

    		 -1.7%

    		 -4.0%
    Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP     		28.0%

    		 -32.5%

    		 -13.7%

    		 0.3%

    		 -5.1%
    Nasdaq-100 Index
    		 36.5%

    		 -32.4%

    		 -7.7%

    		 0.5%

    		 -4.2%
    Source: FactSet

    Returns for 2022 are also included, along with those since the end of 2021. Last year’s weakest sector, communications services, has been this year’s strongest performer. This sector includes Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL
    and Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    which have returned 52% and 155% this year, respectively, but are still down since the end of 2021. To the right are returns for the past week and month through Monday.

    On Monday, the S&P 500 Utilities sector had its worst one-day performance since 2020, with a 4.7% decline. Investors were reacting to the jump in long-term interest rates.

    Here is a link to the U.S. Treasury Department’s summary of the daily yield curve across maturities for Treasury securities.

    The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes

    jumped 10 basis points in only one day to 4.69% on Monday. A month earlier the 10-year yield was only 4.27%. Also on Monday, the yield on 20-year Treasury bonds

    rose to 5.00% from 4.92% on Friday. It was up from 4.56% a month earlier.

    Market Extra: Bond investors feel the heat as popular fixed-income ETF suffers lowest close since 2007

    The Treasury yield curve is still inverted, with 3-month T-bills

    yielding 5.62% on Monday, but that was up only slightly from a month earlier. An inverted yield curve has traditionally signaled that bond investors expect a recession within a year and a lowering of interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Demand for bonds pushes their prices down. But the reverse has happened over recent days, with the selling of longer-term Treasury securities pushing yields up rapidly.

    Another way to illustrate the phenomenon is to look at how the Federal Reserve has shifted the U.S. money supply. Odeon Capital analyst Dick Bove wrote in a note to clients on Friday that “the Federal Reserve has not deviated from its policy to defeat inflation by tightening monetary policy,” as it has shrunk its balance sheet (mostly Treasury securities) to $8.1 trillion from $9 trillion in March 2022. He added: “The M2 money supply was $21.8 trillion in March 2022; today it is $20.8 trillion. You cannot get tighter than these numbers indicate.”

    Then on Tuesday, Bove illustrated the Fed’s tightening and the movement of the 10-year yield with two charts:


    Odeon Capital Group, Bloomberg

    Bove said he believes the bond market has gotten it wrong, with the inverted yield curve reflecting expectations of rate cuts next year. If he is correct, investors can expect longer-term yields to keep shooting up and a normalization of the yield curve.

    This has set up a brutal environment for utility stocks, which are typically desired by investors who are seeking dividend income. In a market in which you can receive a yield of 5.5% with little risk over the short term, and in which you can lock in a long-term yield of about 5%, why take a risk in the stock market? And if you believe that the core inflation rate of 3.7% makes a 5% yield seem paltry, keep in mind that not all investors think the same way. Many worry less about the inflation rate because large components of official inflation calculations, such as home prices and car prices, don’t affect everyone every year.

    We cannot know when this current selloff of longer-term bonds will end, or how much of an effect it will have on the stock market. But sharp declines in the stock market can set up attractive price points for investors looking to go in for the long haul.

    Screening for lower valuations and high ratings

    A combination of rising earnings estimates and price declines could shed light on potential buying opportunities, based on forward price-to-earnings ratios.

    Let’s look at the sectors again, in the same order, this time to show their forward P/E ratios, based on weighted rolling 12-month consensus estimates for earnings per share among analysts polled by FactSet:

    Sector or index

    		 Current P/E to 5-year average

    		 Current P/E to 10-year average

    		 Current P/E to 15-year average

    		 Forward P/E

    		 5-year average P/E

    		 10-year average P/E

    		 15-year average P/E
    Utilities

    		 82%

    		 86%

    		 95%

    		 14.99

    		 18.30

    		 17.40

    		 15.82
    Real Estate

    		 76%

    		 80%

    		 81%

    		 15.19

    		 19.86

    		 18.89

    		 18.72
    Consumer Staples

    		 93%

    		 96%

    		 105%

    		 18.61

    		 19.92

    		 19.30

    		 17.64
    Healthcare

    		 103%

    		 104%

    		 115%

    		 16.99

    		 16.46

    		 16.34

    		 14.72
    Financials

    		 88%

    		 92%

    		 97%

    		 12.90

    		 14.65

    		 14.08

    		 13.26
    Materials

    		 100%

    		 103%

    		 111%

    		 16.91

    		 16.98

    		 16.42

    		 15.27
    Industrials

    		 88%

    		 96%

    		 105%

    		 17.38

    		 19.84

    		 18.16

    		 16.56
    Energy

    		 106%

    		 63%

    		 73%

    		 11.78

    		 11.17

    		 18.80

    		 16.23
    Consumer Discretionary

    		 79%

    		 95%

    		 109%

    		 24.09

    		 30.41

    		 25.39

    		 22.10
    Information Technology

    		 109%

    		 130%

    		 146%

    		 24.20

    		 22.17

    		 18.55

    		 16.54
    Communication Services

    		 86%

    		 86%

    		 94%

    		 16.41

    		 19.09

    		 19.00

    		 17.43
    S&P 500
    		 94%

    		 101%

    		 112%

    		 17.94

    		 19.01

    		 17.76

    		 16.04
    DJ Industrial Average
    		 93%

    		 98%

    		 107%

    		 16.25

    		 17.49

    		 16.54

    		 15.17
    Nasdaq Composite Index
    		 92%

    		 102%

    		 102%

    		 24.62

    		 26.71

    		 24.18

    		 24.18
    Nasdaq-100 Index
    		 97%

    		 110%

    		 126%

    		 24.40

    		 25.23

    		 22.14

    		 19.43

    There is a limit to how many columns we can show in the table. The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio is now 17.94, compared with 16.79 at the end of 2022 and 21.53 at the end of 2021. The benchmark index’s P/E is above its 10- and 15-year average levels but below the five-year average.

    If we compare the current sector P/E numbers to 5-, 10- and 15-year averages, we can see that the current levels are below all three averages for four sectors: utilities, real estate, financials and communications services. The first three face obvious difficulties as they adjust to the rising-rate environment, while the real-estate sector reels from continuing low usage rates for office buildings, from the change in behavior brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Your own opinions, along with the pricing for some sectors, might drive some investment choices.

    A broader screen of the S&P 500 might point to companies for you to research further.

    We narrowed the S&P 500 as follows:

    • Current forward P/E below 5-, 10- and 15-year average valuations. For stocks with negative earnings-per-share estimates for the next 12 months, there is no forward P/E ratio so they were excluded. For stocks listed for less than 15 years, we required at least a 5-year average P/E for comparison. This brought the list down to 138 companies.

    • “Buy” or equivalent ratings from at least two-thirds of analysts: 41 companies.

    Here are the 20 companies that passed the screen, for which analysts’ price targets imply the highest upside potential over the next 12 months.

    There is too much data for one table, so first we will show the P/E information:

    Company

    		 Ticker

    		 Current P/E to 5-year average

    		 Current P/E to 10-year average

    		 Current P/E to 15-year average
    SolarEdge Technologies Inc.

    		 SEDG 89%

    		 N/A

    		 N/A
    AES Corp.

    		 AES 66%

    		 75%

    		 90%
    Insulet Corp.

    		 PODD 18%

    		 N/A

    		 N/A
    United Airlines Holdings Inc.

    		 UAL 42%

    		 50%

    		 N/A
    Alaska Air Group Inc.

    		 ALK 51%

    		 57%

    		 N/A
    Tapestry Inc.

    		 TPR 39%

    		 49%

    		 70%
    Albemarle Corp.

    		 ALB 39%

    		 50%

    		 73%
    Delta Air Lines Inc.

    		 DAL 60%

    		 63%

    		 21%
    Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.

    		 ARE 59%

    		 68%

    		 N/A
    Las Vegas Sands Corp.

    		 LVS 96%

    		 78%

    		 53%
    Paycom Software Inc.

    		 PAYC 61%

    		 N/A

    		 N/A
    PayPal Holdings Inc.

    		 PYPL 33%

    		 N/A

    		 N/A
    SBA Communications Corp. Class A

    		 SBAC 27%

    		 N/A

    		 N/A
    Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

    		 AMD 58%

    		 39%

    		 N/A
    LKQ Corp.

    		 LKQ 92%

    		 44%

    		 78%
    Charles Schwab Corp.

    		 SCHW 75%

    		 54%

    		 73%
    PulteGroup Inc.

    		 PHM 94%

    		 47%

    		 N/A
    Lamb Weston Holdings Inc.

    		 LW 71%

    		 N/A

    		 N/A
    News Corp Class A

    		 NWSA 93%

    		 73%

    		 N/A
    CVS Health Corp.

    		 CVS 75%

    		 61%

    		 67%
    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more about each company or index.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    News Corp
    NWSA
    is on the list. The company owns Dow Jones, which in turn owns MarketWatch.

    Here’s the list again, with ratings and consensus price-target information:

    Company

    		 Ticker

    		 Share “buy” ratings

    		 Oct. 2 price

    		 Consensus price target

    		 Implied 12-month upside potential
    SolarEdge Technologies Inc.

    		 SEDG 74%

    		 $122.56

    		 $268.77

    		 119%
    AES Corp.

    		 AES 79%

    		 $14.16

    		 $25.60

    		 81%
    Insulet Corp.

    		 PODD 68%

    		 $165.04

    		 $279.00

    		 69%
    United Airlines Holdings Inc.

    		 UAL 71%

    		 $41.62

    		 $69.52

    		 67%
    Alaska Air Group Inc.

    		 ALK 87%

    		 $36.83

    		 $61.31

    		 66%
    Tapestry Inc.

    		 TPR 75%

    		 $28.58

    		 $46.21

    		 62%
    Albemarle Corp.

    		 ALB 81%

    		 $162.41

    		 $259.95

    		 60%
    Delta Air Lines Inc.

    		 DAL 95%

    		 $36.45

    		 $58.11

    		 59%
    Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.

    		 ARE 100%

    		 $98.18

    		 $149.45

    		 52%
    Las Vegas Sands Corp.

    		 LVS 72%

    		 $45.70

    		 $68.15

    		 49%
    Paycom Software Inc.

    		 PAYC 77%

    		 $260.04

    		 $384.89

    		 48%
    PayPal Holdings Inc.

    		 PYPL 69%

    		 $58.56

    		 $86.38

    		 48%
    SBA Communications Corp. Class A

    		 SBAC 68%

    		 $198.24

    		 $276.69

    		 40%
    Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

    		 AMD 74%

    		 $103.27

    		 $143.07

    		 39%
    LKQ Corp.

    		 LKQ 82%

    		 $49.13

    		 $67.13

    		 37%
    Charles Schwab Corp.

    		 SCHW 77%

    		 $53.55

    		 $72.67

    		 36%
    PulteGroup Inc.

    		 PHM 81%

    		 $73.22

    		 $98.60

    		 35%
    Lamb Weston Holdings Inc.

    		 LW 100%

    		 $92.23

    		 $123.50

    		 34%
    News Corp Class A

    		 NWSA 78%

    		 $20.00

    		 $26.42

    		 32%
    CVS Health Corp.

    		 CVS 77%

    		 $69.69

    		 $90.88

    		 30%
    Source: FactSet

    A year may actually be a short period for a long-term investor, but 12-month price targets are the norm for analysts working for brokerage companies.

    Don’t miss: This fund shows that industry expertise can help you make a lot of money in the stock market

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  • How to maximize your streaming in October 2023, and why Netflix is all you really need

    How to maximize your streaming in October 2023, and why Netflix is all you really need

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    It’s time to churn, baby, churn.

    The streaming scene has changed significantly over the past year or so, and for the worse: more expensive, less new programming, smaller libraries of older shows. And it’s coming at a time when consumers are being increasingly pressed by higher costs on all fronts. Prices for Disney’s ad-free tiers are rising sharply in October, and Amazon will jack up prices early next year for those who don’t want to see commercials. So it’s time for consumers to once again reassess which services are really worth paying for.

    There are three options if you don’t want your monthly streaming bill to look like your old triple-digit cable bill: bundle (you can save significantly with a Hulu-Disney+ package, for example), move to cheaper plans with commercials (ugh) or just drop the services you watch least. Pick a maximum monthly price ceiling and stick to it — at this point, most people don’t need more than two or three services anyway.

    If you’re frustrated by paying more for less, and want to make a point, cancelling a service is the one way that companies will take notice. Streaming services hate churn (adding and dropping services month-to-month) because it lowers their subscriber base and forces them to raise their marketing costs to win you back. As a consumer, it’s really your only weapon.

    Don’t like how Max keeps removing older shows? Dump it. Finding yourself watching less and less Disney+? Ditch it. It’s satisfying, it’s economical and you can always sign up again in the future.

    One benefit of streaming services is they’re a lot easier to cancel than cable. With prices soaring, now’s the time to be brutal in winnowing your subscriptions. A churn strategy takes some planning, but it pays off. Keep in mind that a billing cycle starts when you sign up, not necessarily at the beginning of the month.

    Each month, this column offers tips on how to maximize your streaming and your budget, rating the major services as a “play,” “pause” or “stop” — similar to investment analysts’ traditional ratings of buy, hold or sell, and picks the best shows to help you make your monthly decisions.

    Here’s a look at what’s coming to the various streaming services in October 2023, and what’s really worth the monthly subscription fee:

    Netflix ($6.99 a month for basic with ads, $15.49 standard with no ads, $19.99 premium with no ads)

    After a ho-hum past few months, Netflix
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    is rolling out a more robust lineup in October. Which is nice, because no other streaming service is.

    After a two-year layoff, the French heist thriller series “Lupin” (Oct. 5) returns for its third season. Omar Sy stars as a master thief who’s now on the lam, and he carries the show largely on his charisma. It’s a fun one, and a welcome return for viewers.

    But the big-name show of the month is “The Fall of the House of Usher” (Oct. 12), from horror hit-maker Mike Flanagan (“The Haunting of Hill House,” “Midnight Mass”). The miniseries, based on Edgar Allan Poe’s classic story, combines Gothic horror with a modern twist, as the corrupt CEO of a family-owned and scandal-plagued pharmaceutical company is forced to face demons from his past as his family members keep dying, one by one, in increasingly gruesome ways. The sprawling cast includes Bruce Greenwood, Annabeth Gish, Carl Lumbly, Carla Gugino, Rahul Kohli, Mark Hamill, Henry Thomas and Mary McDonnell. This should be one to watch, if for nothing else than to finally see a Sackler-like family get their comeuppance.

    Also on the way: the seventh seasons of the raunchy animated adolescent comedy “Big Mouth” (Oct. 20) and the Spanish high school soap “Elite” (Oct. 20); “Pain Hustlers” (Oct. 27), a meh-looking satirical crime drama starring Emily Blunt and Chris Evans as scheming pharmaceutical reps; and the nature documentary “Life on Our Planet” (Oct. 25), narrated by Morgan Freeman.

    More: What’s new on Netflix in October 2023 — and what’s leaving

    And you may have missed it, but Netflix snuck in a new season of “The Great British Baking Show” at the end of September. New episodes stream every Tuesday, and feature new co-host Alison Hammond, replacing Matt Lucas, who always seemed out of place.

    Who’s Netflix for? Fans of buzz-worthy original shows and movies.

    Play, pause or stop? Play. Between some good-looking new shows, fresh eps of the “Great British Baking Show” and recent additions such as “Sex Education” (though its final season is underwhelming) and HBO’s classic “Band of Brothers,” Netflix is once again a must-have.

    Max ($9.99 a month with ads, or $15.99 with no ads)

    After a dismal September, Max has a better October lineup, with Season 2 of the beloved pirate comedy “Our Flag Means Death” (Oct. 5), starring Rhys Darby and Taika Waititi as wildly different ship captains involved in a star-crossed romance; Season 2 of “The Gilded Age” (Oct. 29), Julian Fellowes’ “Downton Abbey”-esque costume drama set in 1880s New York high society, with a sprawling cast that includes Carrie Coon, Cynthia Nixon, Christine Baranski, Morgan Spector and Louisa Jacobson; and the fourth and final season of the DC superhero dramedy “Doom Patrol” (Oct. 12).

    Notably, Warner Bros. Discovery’s
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    Max is launching its live-sports tier — the unfortunately named Bleacher Report Sports — on Oct. 5, just in time for the MLB playoffs and upcoming NBA season. The add-on tier will be free for all subscribers through February, when its price will shoot up to $9.99 a month.

    Also: What’s new on Max in October 2023 — and what’s leaving

    This is also your last chance to watch a bunch of AMC shows that are getting a two-month promotional run on Max: “Fear the Walking Dead” Seasons 1-7, “Anne Rice’s Interview with the Vampire” Season 1, “Dark Winds” Season 1, “Gangs of London” Seasons 1-2, “Ride with Norman Reedus” Seasons 1-5, “A Discovery of Witches” Seasons 1-3, and “Killing Eve” Seasons 1-4 will all leave Oct. 31. Do yourself a favor and at least watch “Dark Winds.”

    One more hidden gem to discover: Season 3 of the British rom-com “Starstruck,” which landed Sept. 28. It’s utterly charming and unwaveringly romantic, with literal LOL moments and some of the most swoon-worthy banter in recent years. Catch up with all three seasons, it’s an easy binge that’s well worth it.

    Who’s Max for? HBO fans and movie lovers. And now, unscripted TV fans too, with a slew of Discovery shows.

    Play, pause or stop? Pause and think it over. It’s an exceptionally weak month for streamers, but Max’s lineup — especially with the addition of live sports and its deep library — makes it one of the least weakest.

    Amazon’s Prime Video ($14.99 a month, or $8.99 without Prime membership)

    Prime Video has a fine lineup in October. Not great. Not terrible. But very OK.

    “Totally Killer” (Oct. 6) looks to be a cleverer-than-most spin on a horror trope, as Kiernan Shipka (“Mad Men”) stars as a 17-year-old who travels back in time to 1987 to stop a serial killer before he can start a slaying spree that terrorized her mother (Julie Bowen).

    Greg Daniels’ existential comedy “Upload” (Oct. 20) is back for its third season of rom-com exploits in a digital afterlife, thanks to uploaded consciousness. (Disclaimer: I liked Season 1, but can’t for the life of me remember if I ever watched Season 2, which doesn’t bode well, but perfectly fits this month’s “meh it’s OK” theme.)

    Meanwhile, Amazon’s
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    free, ad-supported channel, Freevee, has the second season of “Bosch: Legacy” (Oct. 20), the “Bosch” spinoff starring Titus Welliver as a private investigator in L.A., while his daughter Maddie (Madison Lintz) charts her own path as a police officer. As gritty detective shows go, it’s solid.

    Prime Video also has a decent lineup of NFL Thursday Night Football; “The Burial” (Oct. 13), a funeral-home drama movie starring Oscar-winners Jamie Foxx and Tommy Lee Jones; all 11 seasons of the classic sitcom “Frasier” (Oct. 1), just in time for the reboot on Paramount+; as well as new eps every week of “The Boys” spinoff “Gen V” and the season finale of “The Wheel of Time” (Oct 6).

    See more: Everything coming to Amazon’s Prime Video and Freevee in October 2023

    It’s also a good time to dig into Prime Video’s extensive library, before commercials come early next year. In an obnoxious move, rather than add an ad-supported tier at a lower price, Amazon will subject all subscribers to commercials — unless they pay an extra $3-a-month ransom. Commercials will be especially annoying on Prime’s more cinematic series, so watch great-looking shows like “I’m a Virgo,” “Dead Ringers” and “The English” interruption-free, while you still can.

    Who’s Prime Video for? Movie lovers, TV-series fans who value quality over quantity.

    Play, pause or stop? Pause. There’s no a compelling reason to start a subscription now, but if you already have one, there’s probably enough to watch.

    Disney+ ($7.99 a month with ads, $13.99 with no ads, starting Oct. 12)

    After a hiatus of more than two years, Marvel’s “Loki” (Oct. 5) is finally back for its second season. The new season finds the eponymous god of mischief (played by Tom Hiddleston) bouncing across the multiverse in a battle for free will while trying to elude agents of the mysterious Time Variant Authority. Season 1 of “Loki” was one of Marvel’s better TV adaptations, and hopes are high that Season 2 can recapture that sense of chaotic fun. Owen Wilson returns as TVA agent Mobius, and Oscar winner Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) joins the cast, which also features Jonathan Majors as big bad Kang the Conqueror, which is… problematic. Disney is reportedly still planning for Majors to play a key role in “Loki” and the next phase of “Avengers” movies despite his arrest on assault charges earlier this year, which prompted troubling allegations of past physical and emotional abuse toward women. (“Loki” had already finished filming prior to his arrest.)

    Disney also has “Goosebumps” (Oct. 13), about a group of high school friends fighting supernatural forces as they uncover long-buried secrets about their small town in this series adaptation of R.L. Stine’s hugely popular series of spooky novels. (It’ll also stream on Hulu.)

    The “Star Wars” spinoff “Ahsoka” has its season finale Oct. 3, while ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars” will stream every Tuesday.

    Who’s Disney+ for? Families with kids, hardcore “Star Wars” and Marvel fans. For people not in those groups, Disney’s
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     library can be lacking.

    Play, pause or stop? Pause. The price of ad-free Disney+ jumps by $3 a month starting Oct. 12 — how much do you or your family really want to watch “Loki” and “Goosebumps”? It’ll be worth it for some, but an opportune time to cancel for others.

    Hulu ($7.99 a month with ads, or $17.99 with no ads, starting Oct. 12)

    Hulu has been on a fantastic run since the start of summer, but all good things must end. And it happens to coincide with a $3-a-month hike to its ad-free subscription.

    October’s lineup is weak, and heavily weighed toward Halloween-themed fare, such as Season 2 of FX’s spinoff anthology “American Horror Stories” (Oct. 26); the Stephen King thrillers “Rose Red” (Oct. 1) and “The Boogeyman” (Oct. 5); the Starz horror series “Ash vs. Evil Dead” (Oct. 1); the body-horror movie “Appendage” (Oct. 2); and “Goosebumps” (Oct. 13), a live-action adaptation of R.L. Stine’s bestselling kids’ book series (which will also stream on Disney+).

    Non-horror shows include new seasons of Fox’s “The Simpsons,” “Family Guy” and “Bob’s Burgers” (all Oct. 2), and Season 2 of the comedy “Shorsey” (Oct. 27), the “Letterkenny” spinoff series about minor-league hockey that has a surprising amount of heart to go with its absolutely filthy dialogue.

    For more: What’s coming to Hulu in October 2023 — and what’s leaving

    As an added bonus, all five seasons of ABC’s 1980s detective-agency rom-com “Moonlighting” (Oct. 10), starring Bruce Willis and Cybill Shepherd, will stream for the first time ever (legally at least). If I remember correctly, there were some really high highs but also some really low lows — but it’ll be worth checking out, for nostalgia if nothing else.

    There are also new eps every week of “The Golden Bachelor” and “Bachelor in Paradise,” the season finale of “Only Murders in the Building” (Oct. 3) and the series finale of “Archer” (Oct. 11). And if you missed it, all three seasons of “Reservation Dogs” are there and just begging to be watched, or rewatched. (It’s about as perfect as a TV series could ever be, and the recently concluded Season 3 is the best thing I’ve seen this year.)

    Who’s Hulu for? TV lovers. There’s a deep library for those who want older TV series and next-day streaming of many current network and cable shows.

    Play, pause or stop? Stop. If you’re on the ad tier, this month might be tolerable, but it’s certainly not worth $17.99.

    Paramount+ ($5.99 a month with ads, $11.99 a month with Showtime and no ads)

    Twenty years after ending its 11-season run (with 37 Emmy wins), the classic sitcom “Frasier” (Oct. 12) is back. Sort of. Kelsey Grammar returns in this revival as the pompous Dr. Frasier Crane, who’s moved back to Boston to be closer to his adult son (played by Jack Cutmore-Scott), who doesn’t necessarily want him there. The cast is mostly new, though Bebe Neuwirth (as Frasier’s ex-wife Lilith) and Peri Gilpin (his radio producer Roz) will reportedly guest star. David Hyde Pierce (Niles) and Jane Leeves (Daphne) will not return, however, which is a bummer since that’s where much of the original show’s laughs came from (John Mahoney, who played Frasier’s father Marty Crane, died in 2018). The jury’s out on this one — while in theory, it could be a refreshing update to a nostalgic favorite, the trailer is not encouraging.

    Paramount+ also has “Pet Sematary: Bloodlines” (Oct. 6), a creepy prequel to the 2019 horror reboot; “Fellow Travelers” (Oct. 27), a decades-spanning queer love story starring Matt Bomer and Jonathan Bailey; and Showtime’s courtroom drama “The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial” (Oct. 6), the late director William Friedkin’s last film, starring Keifer Sutherland, the late Lance Reddick and Jake Lacy.

    That’s on top of a live-sports lineup that includes SEC and Big Ten college football on Saturdays, NFL football every Sunday and UEFA Champions League soccer matches.

    Who’s Paramount+ for? Gen X cord-cutters who miss live sports and familiar Paramount Global
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     broadcast and cable shows.

    Play, pause or stop? Stop. There’s a good football lineup, at least.

    Apple TV+ ($6.99 a month)

    It’s another slow month for Apple
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    highlighted by the miniseries “Lessons in Chemistry” (Oct. 13), based on Bonnie Garmus’ bestselling novel. Brie Larson stars as a woman in the 1950s whose dreams of becoming a scientist are scuttled by male chauvinism, and instead becomes the host of a TV cooking show, where she inspires housewives and fights the patriarchy. Apple is getting a reputation for getting big-name stars for prestige-type series, only for the shows to fizzle out and quickly be forgotten (like “Mosquito Coast,” “Hello Tomorrow” and “Dear Edward,” for starters). I have yet to see any marketing for this series, and it would not be a surprise for someone to ask six months from now: “Wait, Brie Larson was in an Apple show?”

    There’s also a new documentary from Errol Morris, “The Pigeon Tunnel” (Oct. 20), about the life of spy-turned-writer David Cornwell, aka John le Carré; and “The Enfield Poltergeist” (Oct. 27), a four-part docuseries about the supposed real-life haunting that inspired “The Conjuring 2.”

    Apple’s biggest title will be on Oct. 20 in movie theaters, with the wide release of Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon,” the spectacular-looking historical drama about a series of mysterious killings of Osage tribal members in Oklahoma in the 1920s, starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Lily Gladstone and Robert De Niro. There’s no streaming release date yet, but expect it to land on Apple TV+ after its theatrical run, possibly in November but more likely in December.

    There are also new episodes every week of “The Morning Show,” “The Changeling” (season finale Oct. 13) and “Invasion” (season finale Oct. 25).

    Who’s Apple TV+ for? It offers a little something for everyone, but not necessarily enough for anyone — although it’s getting there.

    Play, pause or stop? Stop. Apple’s had a great year, but there’s just not a lot on right now. But there’s good stuff coming in November (Season 4 of “For All Mankind”) and December (Season 3 of “Slow Horses”).

    Remember, you can get three free months of Apple TV+ if you buy a new iPhone, iPad or Mac. Strategically, if you buy an iPhone 15, and wait a bit to redeem the free trial, you’ll want it to extend into January.

    Peacock (Premium for $5.99 a month with ads, or $11.99 a month with no ads)

    It’s all about horror and sports for Peacock this October.

    On the scary side, there’s Season 2 of the werewolf rom-com “Wolf Like Me” (Oct. 19), starring Josh Gad and Isla Fisher; “Five Nights at Freddy’s” (Oct. 27), a horror movie based on the videogame about a troubled security guard who starts working the night shift at a cursed pizza parlor, starring Josh Hutcherson and Matthew Lillard; and the true-crime anthology “John Carpenter’s Suburban Screams” (Oct. 13).

    On the sports side, Peacock has the Rugby World Cup (through Oct. 28), NFL Sunday Night Football, Big Ten and Notre Dame college football, English Premier League soccer, and a full slate of golf, motorsports and horse racing.

    Meanwhile, the “John Wick” prequel miniseries “The Continental” ends Oct. 6.

    Who’s Peacock for? Live sports and next-day shows from Comcast’s
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     NBCUniversal are the main draw, but there’s a good library of shows and movies.

    Play, pause or stop? Stop. The live-sports offerings are the only lure.

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