“After so many years of unceasing war and endless danger, today the skies are calm. The guns are silent. The sirens are still. And the sun rises on a holy land that is finally at peace,” Trump said.
He then upped the number of wars he claims to have ended in his first eight months in office, saying, “Yesterday I was saying seven, but now I can say eight.”
But Trump’s claim is exaggerated. Much work remains before an end to the war between Israel and Hamas can be declared. That’s also true in other countries where Trump claims to have ended wars.
While the ceasefire and hostage deal is a major achievement, it is still an early and delicate moment in the path to a permanent end to the war, let alone a two state solution.
The first steps of the agreement Trump brokered included the release of hostages in Gaza, the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in Israel, a surge of humanitarian aid and a partial pullback by Israeli forces from Gaza’s main cities.
But major elements remain to be worked out.
After his stop in Israel, Trump gathered with other world leaders in Egypt for a “ Summit of Peace ” to discuss the ceasefire plan. Trump acknowledged that leaders had taken the “first steps to peace” and urged leaders to build on the breakthrough. Trump and other leaders signed a document that he said would “spell out a lot of rules and regulations and lots of other things, and it’s very comprehensive,” though details were not immediately available.
At least some, if not all, of those elements need to be worked out, and negotiations over those issues could break down. Trump envoy Steve Witkoff said on Monday that he and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, were “already working” on implementation issues.
In June, Israel launched attacks on the heart of Iran’s nuclear program and military leadership, saying it wanted to stop Tehran from building a nuclear weapon. Iran has denied it was trying to do that.
Trump negotiated a ceasefire after directing American warplanes to strike Iran’s Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz nuclear sites.
Evelyn Farkas, executive director of Arizona State University’s McCain Institute, said that Trump should get credit for ending the war.
“There’s always a chance it could flare up again if Iran restarts its nuclear weapons program, but nonetheless, they were engaged in a hot war with one another,” she said. “And it didn’t have any real end in sight before President Trump got involved and gave them an ultimatum.”
Lawrence Haas, a senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy at the American Foreign Policy Council who is an expert on Israel-Iran tensions, agreed the U.S. was instrumental in securing the ceasefire. But he characterized it as a “temporary respite” from the ongoing “day-to-day cold war” between the two countries that often involves flare-ups.
This could be described as tensions at best, and peace efforts, which do not directly involve the United States, have stalled.
Egypt and Sudan oppose the dam. Although the vast majority of the water that flows down the Nile originates in Ethiopia, Egyptian agriculture relies on the river almost entirely. Sudan fears flooding and wants to protect its own power-generating dams.
During his first term, Trump tried to broker a deal between Ethiopia and Egypt. He could not get the countries to agree and suspended aid to Ethiopia over the dispute. In July, he posted on social media that he helped the “fight over the massive dam (and) there is peace at least for now.” But the disagreement persists, and negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have stalled.
“It would be a gross overstatement to say that these countries are at war,” Haas said. “I mean, they’re just not.”
Trump has claimed that the U.S. brokered the ceasefire, which he said came about in part because he offered trade concessions. Pakistan thanked Trump, recommending him for the Nobel Peace Prize. India has denied Trump’s claims, saying there was no conversation between the U.S. and India on trade in regards to the ceasefire.
Although India played down the Trump administration’s role in the ceasefire, Haas and Farkas believe the U.S. deserves some credit for helping stop the fighting.
“I think that President Trump played a constructive role from all accounts, but it may not have been decisive. And again, I’m not sure whether you would define that as a full-blown war,” Farkas said.
The White House lists the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo as one Trump resolved. But there has been no threat of a war between the two neighbors during Trump’s second term or any significant contribution from the Republican president this year to improve relations.
Kosovo is a former Serbian province that declared independence in 2008. Tensions have persisted since, but never to the point of war, mostly because NATO-led peacekeepers have been deployed in Kosovo, which has been recognized by more than 100 countries.
Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Trump has played a key role in peace efforts between the African neighbors, but he is hardly alone and the conflict is far from over.
Eastern Congo, rich in minerals, has been battered by fighting with more than 100 armed groups. The most potent is the M23 rebel group. It is backed by neighboring Rwanda, which claims that it is protecting its territorial interests and that some of those who participated in the 1994 Rwandan genocide fled to Congo and are working with the Congolese army.
The Trump administration’s efforts paid off in June, when the Congolese and Rwandan foreign ministers signed a peace deal at the White House. The M23, however, was not directly involved in the U.S.-facilitated negotiations and said it would not abide by the terms of an agreement that did not involve it.
The final step to peace was meant to be a Qatar-facilitated deal between Congo and M23 that would bring about a permanent ceasefire as well as a final agreement to be signed separately between Congo and Rwanda as facilitated by the administration. However, talks have stalled between the different parties amid setbacks, and deadly fighting continues in eastern Congo.
The agreements were intended to reopen key transportation routes and reaffirm Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s commitment to signing a peace treaty. The treaty’s text was initialed by the countries’ foreign ministers at that meeting, which indicated preliminary approval. But the two countries have yet to sign and ratify the deal.
Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in a bitter conflict over territory since the early 1990s, when ethnic Armenian forces took control of the Karabakh province, known internationally as Nagorno-Karabakh, and nearby territories. In 2020, Azerbaijan’s military recaptured broad swaths of territory. Russia brokered a truce and deployed about 2,000 peacekeepers to the region.
In September 2023, Azerbaijani forces launched a lightning blitz to retake remaining portions. The two countries have worked toward normalizing ties and signing a peace treaty ever since.
Officials from Thailand and Cambodia credit Trump with pushing the Asian neighbors to agree to a ceasefire in this summer’s brief border conflict.
Cambodia and Thailand clashed in the past over their shared border. The latest fighting began in July after a land mine explosion along the border wounded five Thai soldiers. Tensions had been growing since May, when a Cambodian soldier was killed in a confrontation that created a diplomatic rift and roiled Thai politics.
Both countries agreed in late July to an unconditional ceasefire during a meeting in Malaysia.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim pressed for the pact, but there was little headway until Trump intervened. Trump said on social media that he warned the Thai and Cambodian leaders that the U.S. would not move forward with trade agreements if the hostilities continued. Both countries faced economic difficulties and neither had reached tariff deals with the U.S., though most of their Southeast Asian neighbors had.
According to Ken Lohatepanont, a political analyst and University of Michigan doctoral candidate, “President Trump’s decision to condition a successful conclusion to these talks on a ceasefire likely played a significant role in ensuring that both sides came to the negotiating table when they did.”
Associated Press writers Michelle Price, Chinedu Asadu, Melissa Goldin, Jon Gambrell, Grant Peck, Dasha Litvinova, Fay Abuelgasim, Rajesh Roy, and Dusan Stojanovic contributed to this report. ___
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