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Tag: Climate Science

  • Scientific studies calculate climate change as health danger

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    The Trump administration on Thursday revoked a scientific finding that climate change is a danger to public health, an idea that President Donald Trump called “a scam.” But repeated scientific studies say it’s a documented and quantifiable harm.

    Again and again, research has found increasing disease and deaths — thousands every year — in a warming world.

    The Environmental Protection Agency finding in 2009, under the Obama administration, has been the legal underpinning of nearly all regulations fighting global warming.

    “It boggles the mind that the administration is rescinding the endangerment finding; it’s akin to insisting that the world is flat or denying that gravity is a thing,” said Dr. Howard Frumkin, a physician and professor emeritus of public health at the University of Washington.

    Thousands of scientific studies have looked at climate change and its effects on human health in the past five years and they predominantly show climate change is increasingly dangerous to people.

    Many conclude that in the United States, thousands of people have died and even more were sickened because of climate change in the past few decades.

    For example, a study on “Trends in heat-related deaths in the U.S., 1999-2023 ” in the prestigious JAMA journal shows the yearly heat-related death count and rate have more than doubled in the past quarter century from 1,069 in 1999 to a record high 2,325 in 2023.

    A 2021 study in Nature Climate Change looked at 732 locations in 43 countries — including 210 in the United States — and determined that more than a third of heat deaths are due to human-caused climate change. That means more than 9,700 global deaths a year attributed to warming from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas.

    A new study published this week found that 2.2% of summer deaths in Texas from 2010 to 2023 were heat related “as climate change brings more frequent and intense heat to Texas.”

    In the more than 15 years, since the government first determined climate change to be a public health danger, there have been more than 29,000 peer-reviewed studies that looked at the intersection of climate and health, with more than 5,000 looking specifically at the United States, according to the National Library of Medicine’s PubMed research database.

    More than 60% of those studies have been published in the past five years.

    “Study after study documents that climate change endangers health, for one simple reason: It’s true,” said Frumkin, a former director of the National Center for Environmental Health appointed by President George W. Bush.

    In a Thursday event at the White House, Trump disagreed, saying: “It has nothing to do with public health. This is all a scam, a giant scam.”

    Experts strongly disagree.

    “Health risks are increasing because human-cause climate change is already upon us. Take the 2021 heat dome for example, that killed (more than) 600 people in the Northwest,” said Dr. Jonathan Patz, a physician who directs the Center for Health, Energy and Environmental Research at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “The new climate attribution studies show that event was made 150-fold more likely due to climate change.”

    Patz and Frumkin both said the “vast majority” of peer-reviewed studies show health harms from climate change. Peer-reviewed studies are considered the gold standard of science because other experts pore over the data, evidence and methods, requiring changes, questioning techniques and conclusions.

    The various studies look at different parts of health. Some looked at deaths that wouldn’t have happened without climate change. Others looked at illnesses and injuries that didn’t kill people. Because researchers used different time periods, calculation methods and specific aspects of health, the final numbers of their conclusions don’t completely match.

    Studies also examined disparities among different peoples and locations. A growing field in the research are attribution studies that calculate what proportion of deaths or illness can be blamed on human-caused climate change by comparing real-world mortality and illness to what computer simulations show would happen in a world without a spike in greenhouse gases.

    Last year an international team of researchers looked at past studies to try to come up with a yearly health cost of climate change.

    While many studies just look at heat deaths, this team tried to bring in a variety of types of climate change deaths — heat waves, extreme weather disasters such as 2017’s Hurricane Harvey, wildfires, air pollution, diseases spread by mosquitos such as malaria — and found hundreds of thousands of climate change deaths globally.

    They then used the EPA’s own statistic that puts a dollar value on human life — $11.5 million in 2014 dollars — and calculated a global annual cost “on the order of at least $10 billion.”

    Studies also connect climate change to waterborne infections that cause diarrhea, mental health issues and even nutrition problems, Frumkin said.

    “Public health is not only about prevention of diseases, death and disability but also well-being. We are increasingly seeing people displaced by rising seas, intensifying storms and fires,” said Dr. Lynn Goldman, a physician and dean emeritus at the George Washington University School of Public Health.

    “We have only begun to understand the full consequences of a changing climate in terms of health.”

    The issue gets complicated when cold-related deaths are factored in. Those deaths are decreasing, yet in the United States there are still 13 times more deaths from cold exposure than heat exposure, studies show.

    Another study concludes that until the world warms another 2.7 degrees (1.5 degrees Celsius) from now, the number of temperature-related deaths won’t change much “due to offsetting decreases in cold-related mortality and increases in heat-related deaths.”

    But that study said that after temperatures rise beyond that threshold, and if society doesn’t adapt to the increased heat, “total mortality rises rapidly.”

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    The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

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  • At UN climate conference, some activists and scientists want more talk on reforming agriculture

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    BELEM, Brazil — With a spotlight on the Brazilian Amazon, where agriculture drives a significant chunk of deforestation and planet-warming emissions, many of the activists, scientists and government leaders at United Nations climate talks have a beef. They want more to be done to transform the world’s food system.

    Protesters gathered outside a new space at the talks, the industry-sponsored “Agrizone,” to call for a transition toward a more grassroots food system, even as hundreds of lobbyists for big agriculture companies are attending the talks.

    Though agriculture contributes about a third of Earth-warming emissions worldwide, most of the money dedicated to fighting climate change goes to causes other than agriculture, according to the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization.

    The FAO didn’t offer any single answer as to how that spending should be shifted, or on what foods people should be eating.

    “All the countries are coming together. I don’t think we can impose on them one specific worldview,” said Kaveh Zahedi, director of the organization’s Office of Climate Change, Biodiversity and Environment.

    Research has generally shown that a plant-based diet can be better for health and the planet. But many people in poverty around the world who are hardest hit by climate change depend on animal sources of protein for survival. People in higher-income countries have more options for a healthy diet without meat. But those people still tend to contribute more to climate change with their dietary choices.

    “We have to be very, very aware and conscious of those nuances, those differences that exist,” Zahedi said.

    When world leaders gather every year to try to address climate change, they spend much of their time in a giant, artificial world that typically gets built up just for the conference.

    One corner of COP30, as this year’s conference is known, featured the alternative universe of AgriZone, where visitors could step into a world of immersive videos and exhibits with live plants and food products. Those included a research farm that Brazilian national agricultural research corporation Embrapa built to showcase what they call low-carbon farming methods for raising cattle, and growing crops like corn and soy as well as ways to integrate cover crops like legumes or trees like teak and eucalyptus.

    Ana Euler, executive director of innovation, business and technology transfer at Embrapa, said her industry can offer solutions needed especially in the Global South where climate change is hitting hardest.

    “We need to be part of the discussions in terms of climate funds,” Euler said. “We researchers, we speak loud, but nobody listens.”

    AgriZone was averaging about 2,000 visitors a day during COP30’s two-week run, said Gabriel Faria, an Embrapa spokesman. That included tours for Queen Mary of Denmark, COP President André Corrêa do Lago and other Brazilian state and local officials.

    But while the AgriZone seeks to spread a message of lower-carbon agriculture possibilities, industrial agriculture retains a big influence at the climate talks. The climate-focused news site DeSmog reported that more than 300 industrial agriculture lobbyists are attending COP30.

    On a humid evening at COP30’s opening, a group of activists gathered on the grassy center of a busy roundabout in front of the AgriZone to call for food systems that prioritize good working conditions and sustainability and for industry lobbyists to not be allowed at the talks.

    Those with the most sway are “not the smallholder food producers, … not the peasants, and … definitely not all these people in the Global South that are experiencing the brunt of the crisis,” said Pang Delgra, an activist with the Asian People’s Movement on Debt and Development who was among the protesters. “It’s this industrial agriculture and corporate lobbyists that are shifting the narrative inside COPs.”

    As Indigenous people pushed to be heard at a COP that was supposed to be about them, some also called for countries to honor their knowledge of land stewardship.

    “We have to decolonize our thoughts. It’s not just about changing to a different food,” said Sara Omi, from the Embera people of Panama and president of the Coordination of Territorial Leaders of the Mesoamerican Alliance of Peoples and Forests.

    “The agro-industrial systems are not the solution,” she added. “The solution is our own ancestral systems that we maintain as Indigenous peoples.”

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    Follow Melina Walling on X @MelinaWalling and Bluesky @melinawalling.bsky.social. Follow Joshua A. Bickel on Instagram, Bluesky and X @joshuabickel.

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    The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

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  • Study finds EVs quickly overcome their energy-intensive build to be cleaner than gas cars

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    DETROIT — Making electric vehicles and their batteries is a dirty process that uses a lot of energy. But a new study says that EVs quickly make up for that with less overall emissions through two years of use than a gas-powered vehicle.

    The study also estimated that gas-powered vehicles cause at least twice as much environmental damage over their lifetimes as EVs, and said the benefits of EVs can be expected to increase in coming decades as clean sources of power, such as solar and wind, are brought onto the grid.

    The work by researchers from Northern Arizona University and Duke University, published Wednesday in the journal PLOS Climate, offers insight into a transportation sector that makes up a big part of U.S. emissions. It also comes as some EV skeptics have raised concerns about whether the environmental impact of battery production, including mining, makes it worthwhile to switch to electric.

    “While there is a bigger carbon footprint in the very short term because of the manufacturing process in creating the batteries for electric vehicles, very quickly you come out ahead in CO2 emissions by year three and then for all of the rest of the vehicle lifetime, you’re far ahead and so cumulatively much lower carbon footprint,” said Drew Shindell, an earth science professor at Duke University and study co-author.

    The researchers evaluated several harmful air pollutants monitored by the Environmental Protection Agency, as well as emissions data, to compare the relative impact over time of EVs and internal combustion engines on air quality and climate change.

    Their analysis said that EVs produce 30% higher carbon dioxide emissions than gasoline vehicles in their first two years. That can be attributed to the energy-intensive production and manufacturing processes involved in mining lithium for EV batteries.

    They also sought to account for how the U.S. energy system might develop in coming years, assuming growth in clean energy. And they modeled four different scenarios for EV adoption, ranging from the lowest — a 31% share of vehicle sales — to the highest, 75% of sales, by 2050. (EV sales accounted for about 8% of new vehicle sales in the U.S. in 2024.)

    The researchers said the average of those four models found that for each additional kilowatt hour of lithium-ion battery output, carbon dioxide emissions drop by an average of 220 kilograms (485 pounds) in 2030, and another 127 kilograms (280 pounds) in 2050.

    The consistent decrease in CO2 emissions from EVs is “not only driven by the on-road vehicles, but also reduction that has been brought due to electricity production,” said lead author Pankaj Sadavarte, a postdoctoral researcher at Northern Arizona University.

    Greg Keoleian, a University of Michigan professor of sustainable systems who wasn’t involved in the research, called it a “valuable study” that echoes other findings and “confirms the environmental and economic benefits” of EVs.

    “Accelerating the adoption of battery electric vehicles is a key strategy for decarbonizing the transportation sector which will reduce future damages and costs of climate change,” he said.

    Shindell, the Duke researcher, said the grid will evolve to have more solar and wind power.

    “When you add a bunch of electric vehicles, nobody’s going to build new coal-fired power plants to run these things because coal is really expensive compared to renewables,” he said. “So the grid just overall becomes much cleaner in both the terms of carbon emissions for climate change, and for air pollution.”

    Outside experts agreed — as long as the policy landscape supports it. That hasn’t been the case under President Donald Trump, who has worked to boost fossil fuels and restrain solar and wind power development.

    “The great news is the rest of the world isn’t slowing down in terms of its embrace of this technology,” said Ellen Kennedy, principal for carbon-free transportation at RMI, a clean energy nonprofit. As for the U.S., she said, “I think it’s important to keep in mind states and local governments, there’s a lot that’s happening on those fronts.”

    One thing the study didn’t address was recycling or disposal of batteries at the end of their life. Kennedy said battery recycling will improve, helping to address one of the environmental impacts of their production.

    The study comes at a notable time given the challenges that EVs face in the U.S.

    EVs have seen more interest in recent years as an alternative to gas-powered cars and trucks — particularly as they become more affordable and charging infrastructure becomes more available.

    But growth has slowed amid shifting federal policy toward EVs and an industry step back from ambitious EV production promises.

    Former President Joe Biden set a target for 50% of all new vehicle sales in the U.S. to be electric by 2030. But Trump reversed that policy, and Congress has terminated federal tax credits for an EV purchase. The administration has also targeted vehicle pollution rules that would encourage greater uptake of EVs in the U.S., and the president has attempted to halt a nationwide EV charging buildout.

    “The study is important to show how really misguided the current administration’s policies are,” Shindell said. “If we want to protect us from climate change and from the very clear and local damage from poor air quality, this is a really clear way to do it: Incentivize the switch from internal combustion engines to EVs.”

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    Alexa St. John is an Associated Press climate reporter. Follow her on X: @alexa_stjohn. Reach her at ast.john@ap.org.

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    Read more of AP’s climate coverage.

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    The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

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  • Bill Gates calls for climate fight to shift focus from curbing emissions to reducing human suffering

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    NEW YORK — Bill Gates thinks climate change is a serious problem but it won’t be the end of civilization. He thinks scientific innovation will curb it, and it’s instead time for a “strategic pivot” in the global climate fight: from focusing on limiting rising temperatures to fighting poverty and preventing disease.

    A doomsday outlook has led the climate community to focus too much on near-term goals to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that cause warming, diverting resources from the most effective things that can be done to improve life in a warming world, Gates said. In a memo released Tuesday, Gates said the world’s primary goal should instead be to prevent suffering, particularly for those in the toughest conditions in the world’s poorest countries.

    If given a choice between eradicating malaria and a tenth of a degree increase in warming, Gates told reporters, “I’ll let the temperature go up 0.1 degree to get rid of malaria. People don’t understand the suffering that exists today.”

    The Microsoft co-founder spends most of his time now on the goals of the Gates Foundation, which has poured tens of billions of dollars into health care, education and development initiatives worldwide, including combating HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria. He started Breakthrough Energy in 2015 to speed up innovation in clean energy.

    He wrote his 17-page memo hoping to have an impact on next month’s United Nations climate change conference in Brazil. He’s urging world leaders to ask whether the little money designated for climate is being spent on the right things.

    Gates, whose foundation provides financial support for Associated Press coverage of health and development in Africa, is influential in the climate change conversation. He expects his “tough truths about climate” memo will be controversial.

    “If you think climate is not important, you won’t agree with the memo. If you think climate is the only cause and apocalyptic, you won’t agree with the memo,” Gates said during a roundtable discussion with reporters ahead of the release. “It’s kind of this pragmatic view of somebody who’s, you know, trying to maximize the money and the innovation that goes to help in these poor countries.”

    Every bit of additional warming correlates to more extreme weather, risks species extinction and brings the world closer to crossing tipping points where changes become irreversible, scientists say.

    University of Washington public health and climate scientist Kristie Ebi said she thoroughly agrees with Gates that the U.N. negotiations should focus on improving human health and well-being. But, she said, Gates assumes the world stays static and only one variable changes — faster deployment of green technologies — to curb climate change. She called that unlikely.

    Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University, called the memo “pointless, vague, unhelpful and confusing.”

    “There is no reason to pit poverty reduction versus climate transformation. Both are utterly feasible, and readily so, if the Big Oil lobby is brought under control,” he wrote in an email.

    Stanford University climate scientist Chris Field said there is room for a healthy discussion about whether the current framing of the climate crisis is typically too pessimistic.

    “But we should also invest for both the long term and the short term,” he wrote in an email. “A vibrant long-term future depends on both tackling climate change and supporting human development.”

    Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer said he doesn’t dispute the principle of making human well-being the primary objective of policy, but what about the natural world?

    “Climate change is already wreaking havoc there,” he wrote in an email. “Can we truly live in a technological bubble? Do we want to?”

    Gates is clear in his memo that every tenth of a degree of warming matters: “A stable climate makes it easier to improve people’s lives.”

    A decade ago, the world agreed in a historic pact known as the Paris agreement to try to limit human-caused warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times. The goal: to stave off nastier heat waves, wildfires, storms and droughts.

    In a 2021 book, Gates laid out a plan for reducing emissions to avoid a climate disaster. But humans are on track to release so much greenhouse gas by early 2028 that scientists say crossing that 1.5-degree threshold is now nearly unavoidable.

    Breakthrough Energy focuses on areas where the cost of doing something cleanly is much higher than the polluting way, such as making clean steel and cement. Gates concluded his memo by saying governments should work toward driving this difference to zero, and be rigorous about measuring the impact of every effort in the world’s climate agenda.

    Gates said the pace of innovation in clean energy has been faster than he expected, allowing cheap solar and wind energy to replace coal, oil and natural gas plants for electricity and averting worst-case warming scenarios. Artificial intelligence is helping accelerate advances in clean energy technologies, he added.

    At the same time, money to help developing countries adapt to climate change is shrinking. Led by the United States, rich countries are cutting their foreign aid budgets. President Donald Trump has called climate change a hoax.

    Gates criticized the aid cuts. He said Gavi, a public-private partnership started by his philanthropic foundation that buys vaccines, will have 25% less money for the next five years compared to the past five years. Gavi can save a life for a little more than $1,000, he added.

    Vaccines become even more important in a warming world because children who aren’t dying of measles or whooping cough will be more likely to survive when a heat wave hits or a drought threatens the local food supply, he wrote.

    Health and prosperity are the best defense against climate change, Gates said, citing research from the University of Chicago Climate Impact Lab that found projected deaths from climate change fall by more than 50% when accounting for the expected economic growth over the rest of this century.

    Under these circumstances, he thinks the bar must be “very high” for what’s funded with aid money.

    “If you have something that gets rid of 10,000 tons of emissions, that you’re spending several million dollars on,” he said, “that just doesn’t make the cut.”

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    AP Writer Seth Borenstein in Washington contributed to this report.

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    The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

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  • In a California farming region, researchers are mapping rural heat to protect farmworkers

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    In the summers, the sky is jet black when Raul Cruz arrives at this Imperial Valley sugarcane field to start his day. He chops, cleans and bundles the crop, taking heed as the sun rises. It’s hard work, but so is starting at 4 a.m., even though he knows it’s the safest thing when temperatures in this California desert frequently soar into the triple digits.

    “We just have to because we need to beat the heat,” said Cruz, who’s worked here for 15 years. They finish work by 9 or 10 a.m. to avoid the risk of heat stroke, he added, but when heat starts creeping up around 8 a.m., “mentally, it’s stressful.”

    The hot climate that makes this Southern California region a farming powerhouse is also what makes it dangerous for farmworkers, who are increasingly vulnerable to rising temperatures due to greenhouse gas emissions from burning coal, oil and natural gas. Researchers from San Diego State University are working to understand the health consequences of heat stress on farmworkers and where heat is most extreme in this rural landscape. They hope their findings can lead to a better understanding of rural heat islands, identify gaps in research and help develop interventions that better protect them in the face of climate change.

    “Workers could potentially be dying or having some serious issues,” said project leader Nicolas Lopez-Galvez, assistant professor in the School of Public Health at SDSU. “It’s better to start acting sooner.”

    Since the start of the 20th century, California temperatures have increased almost 3 F (about 1.7 C), according to state and federal data. Warming has accelerated, and seven of the state’s last eight years through 2024 were the warmest on record. While all areas of the state have warmed, Southern California is heating up about twice as fast as Northern California.

    Ana Solorio, an organizer with the farmworker advocacy group Líderes Campesinas that is working with researchers, remembered feeling “suffocated” in the Coachella Valley summer heat when she was a farmworker. “With the humidity, it felt awful,” said Solorio, who’s lived in the Imperial Valley for more than 30 years. The heat was so intense she didn’t return for another season, preferring instead the cooler winter harvesting months of lettuce in the Imperial Valley.

    “This (heat) can cause a lot of harm to their health,” she said.

    Researchers are trying to understand how farmworkers’ heat stress might vary depending on the crops, the season and the number of breaks they take.

    Over the past two years, they’ve collected year-round data from some 300 farmworkers. Body sensors measure things like core body temperature and heart rate while they work. Elsewhere in the fields, environmental monitors measure the day’s temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun angle and cloud cover, also known as the wet-bulb globe temperature, considered the best metric to understanding heat stress. Using satellite imagery along with historical and current wet-bulb globe temperature data, researchers are mapping areas of extreme heat, particularly in the Imperial and Coachella valleys.

    Researchers are learning that ground level crops can expose workers to higher heat levels compared to tree crops, for example, but it also depends on their harvesting months. In the summers, farmworkers who prepare fields for planting or help maintain irrigation systems are also more exposed.

    Rural heat can vary based on things like tree cover, proximity to a body of water and empty fields, which may be hotter. “It creates this island where people might be living or working that are higher in terms of heat stress compared to other places,” said Lopez-Galvez.

    Bordered by the Colorado River to the east, the Salton Sea to the northwest and Mexico to the south, the Imperial Valley is home to hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland and produces billions of dollars in agricultural production. It grows two-thirds of winter vegetables consumed nationally and provides thousands of jobs. From 2023 to 2024 alone, about 17,579 migrant and seasonal farmworkers were employed in Imperial County, according to the state.

    It’s also extremely hot. In a given year, there are about 123 days with temperatures over 95 F (35 C), often exceeding 110 F (43 C) in August and early September, according to calculations by Sagar Parajuli, research scientist and adjunct faculty with SDSU’s geography department. The county has one of the largest Latino populations and the highest number of heat-related illnesses among workers than anywhere else in the state.

    Some of their data analysis has already been published.

    One study found that irrigating crop fields in the Imperial Valley reduced the wet-bulb globe temperature on summer days, thanks to the cooling effect of evaporating water. But on summer nights, the opposite occurred: irrigation increased the wet-bulb globe temperature as humidity spiked. Irrigation also heightened heat in nearby urban and fallow areas adjacent to crop fields due to moisture transport.

    “It is a concern because an elevated nighttime temperature restricts the ability of farmworkers to cool down,” said Parajuli, the study’s lead author. “So they can’t recover from the heat stress they could be accumulating from the daytime.”

    Through this research, the authors were able to recommend how frequently farmworkers should take rest breaks to protect themselves from heat stress, based on how often wet-bulb globe temperatures exceed safety thresholds across seasons and work shifts. While California has heat rules, they’re not strictly enforced, he added.

    “We realized that farmworkers are not getting enough rest breaks, and also there are no clear policy guidelines in terms of heat-related rest breaks,” he said.

    Lopez-Galvez said they plan to continue their research in California’s Central Valley and hope to expand it into Yuma, Ariz. and other parts of the Southwest.

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    The Associated Press receives support from the Walton Family Foundation for coverage of water and environmental policy. The AP is solely responsible for all content. For all of AP’s environmental coverage, visit https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment

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  • Study links frequent, severe heat waves to pollution from major fossil fuel producers

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    Fifty-five heat waves over the past quarter-century would not have happened without human-caused climate change, according to a study published Wednesday.

    Planet-warming emissions from 180 major cement, oil and gas producers contributed significantly to all of the heat events considered in the study, which was published in the journal Nature and examined a set of 213 heat waves from 2000 to 2023. The polluters examined in the study include publicly traded and state-owned companies, as well several countries where fossil fuel production data was available at the national level.

    Collectively, these producers are responsible for 57% of all the carbon dioxide that was emitted from 1850 to 2023, the study found.

    “It just shows that it’s not that many actors … who are responsible for a very strong fraction of all emissions,” said Sonia Seneviratne, a climate professor at the Swiss university ETH Zurich who was one of the study’s contributors.

    The set of heat waves in the study came from the EM-DAT International Disaster Database, which the researchers described as the most widely used global disaster repository. The Nature study examined all of the heat waves in the database from 2000 to 2023 except for a few that weren’t suitable for their analysis.

    Global warming made all 213 of the heat waves examined more likely, the study found. Out of those, 55 were 10,000 times more likely to have happened than they would have been before industrialization began accelerating in the 1800s. The calculation is equivalent to saying those 55 heat waves “would have been virtually impossible” without human-caused climate change, the authors wrote.

    “Many of these heat waves had very strong consequences,” said Seneviratne. She said the series of heat waves that struck Europe in 2022 that was linked to tens of thousands of deaths sticks out in her mind as one of the events with particularly grave consequences.

    Climate scientists can use complex computer programs and historic weather data to calculate the connection between extreme weather events and the planet-warming pollutants humans emit. Climate change attribution studies often focus on how climate change influenced a specific weather event, but the scientists say this new Nature study is unique because it focused on the extent to which cement and fossil fuel producers have contributed to heat waves.

    “They are drawing on a pretty well-established field of attribution science now, which has existed for about 20 years,” said Chris Callahan, a climate scientist at Indiana University who was not involved in the study. Callahan has used similar attribution methodologies in his research and said the new study is appropriate and high-quality.

    Scientists say the new study could be taken into consideration in legal cases. Globally, dozens of lawsuits have been filed against fossil fuel companies by climate activists, American state governments and others seeking to hold the companies accountable for their role in climate change.

    For example, Vermont and New York have passed laws that aim to hold fossil fuel companies accountable for their emissions and the damage caused.

    “For a while, it was argued that any individual contributor to climate change was making too small or too diffuse a contribution to ever be linked to any particular impact. And this emerging science, both this paper and others, is showing that that’s not true,” said Callahan.

    Justin Mankin, a Dartmouth College climate scientist who wasn’t involved in the study, said the findings provide insight into the origins of the heat waves and how potential hazards from them could be minimized in the future.

    “As we contend with these losses, the assessment of who or what’s responsible is going to become really important,” Mankin said. “I think there are some really appropriate questions, like who pays to recoup our losses, given that we’re all being damaged by it.”

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    The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

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  • As world gets hotter, Americans are turning to more sugar, study finds

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    WASHINGTON — Global warming in the United States is amping up the country’s sweet tooth, a new study found.

    When the temperature rises, Americans — especially those with less money and education — drink lots more sugary beverages and a bit more frozen desserts. That amounts to more than 100 million pounds of added sugar (358 million kilograms) consumed in the nation a year, compared to 15 years earlier, according to a team of researchers in the U.S. and United Kingdom.

    When temperatures go between 54 and 86 degrees (12 and 30 degrees Celsius), the amount of sugar the average American consumes goes up by about 0.4 grams per degree Fahrenheit (0.7 grams per degree Celsius) per day, based on researchers tracking of weather conditions and consumers’ purchases. At 54 degrees, the amount of added sugar for the average American is a little more than 2 grams. At 86 degrees, it’s more than 15 grams.

    Beyond that, appetites lessen and added sugar falls off, according to the study in Monday’s Nature Climate Change.

    “Climate change is shaping what you eat and how you eat and that might have a bad effect on your health,” said study co-author Duo Chan, a climate scientist at the University of Southampton.

    “People tend to take in more sweetened beverages as the temperature is getting higher and higher,” Chan said. “Obviously under a warming climate that would cause you to drink more or take in more sugar. And that is going to be a severe problem when it comes to health.”

    The daily difference from higher temperatures doesn’t amount to even a single candy bar for the average person. But it adds up over time and has a big effect, said University of California San Francisco endocrinology professor Dr. Robert Lustig, a specialist in pediatrics and obesity who wasn’t part of the study.

    Lustig wrote in an email that among poorer Americans, just one added can of sugary soft drink per day increases diabetes risk by 29% — and temperature-related thirst plays a big part in America’s obesity epidemic.

    The United States’ average annual temperature has gone up about 2.2 degrees (1.2 degrees Celsius) since 1895, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

    To chart the impact on sugar consumption, researchers compared it to the American Heart Association recommendations: limiting daily intake to 36 grams for men and 25 grams for women.

    The team then compared wind, precipitation and humidity records to the detailed purchase records of 40,000 to 60,000 American households from 2004 to 2019, not using any data after the pandemic hit. Then they looked at the nutritional information of the items bought. That allowed them to eliminate other factors to make a causal link and come up with a calculation for how much extra sugar is consumed per person per degree, said lead author Pan He, an environmental scientist at Cardiff University.

    Researcher He said she started thinking about the study when she noticed that people in the U.S. tend to grab sugary soda when they are thirsty: “From a perspective of nutrition science or environmental science, that could be a problem,” she said.

    The researchers found that men consumed more sugary soft drinks, and that the amount of added sugar consumed during hot weather was several times higher for low- and very low-income families than for the wealthiest, the study found.

    People who work outside drank more sugary drinks than those who work inside, and the same went for families where the head of the household was less educated. White people have the highest added sugar effect, while Asians showed no significant change in added sugar in the heat.

    Lustig said sugary drinks are marketed and priced in a way to attract the poor, and in many disadvantaged communities the water tastes funny because of chemicals in them. Poor people are also less likely to have air conditioning and are more likely to work outside and need more hydration, Lustig and He said.

    “It should concern us that the rate of the impact is larger in households where people make less money or are less educated,” said Dr. Courtney Howard, vice chair of the Global Climate and Health Alliance. “These groups tend to have lower baseline health status, so this is an area where climate-related changes appear to magnify existing health inequalities.”

    Howard, an emergency room physician, was not part of the study.

    The amount of sugar consumed is likely to soar in the future with more warming, Chan said.

    But University of Washington health and climate scientist Kristie Ebi, who wasn’t part of the research, said as temperatures increase with human-caused climate change “there will be other issues of more importance than a small increase in sugary beverages.”

    ___

    The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

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  • Warming seas threaten key phytoplankton species that fuels the food web, study finds

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    SEATTLE — For decades, scientists believed Prochlorococcus, the smallest and most abundant phytoplankton on Earth, would thrive in a warmer world. But new research suggests the microscopic bacterium, which forms the foundation of the marine food web and helps regulate the planet’s climate, will decline sharply as seas heat up.

    A study published Monday in the journal Nature Microbiology found Prochlorococcus populations could shrink by as much as half in tropical oceans over the next 75 years if surface waters exceed about 82 degrees Fahrenheit (27.8 Celsius). Many tropical and subtropical sea surface temperatures are already trending above average and are projected to regularly surpass 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 Celsius) over that same period.

    “These are keystone species — very important ones,” said François Ribalet, a research associate professor at the University of Washington’s School of Oceanography and the study’s lead author. “And when a keystone species decreases in abundance, it always has consequences on ecology and biodiversity. The food web is going to change.”

    Prochlorococcus inhabit up to 75% of Earth’s sunlit surface waters and produce about one-fifth of the planet’s oxygen through photosynthesis. More crucially, Ribalet said, they convert sunlight and carbon dioxide into food at the base of the marine ecosystem.

    “In the tropical ocean, nearly half of the food is produced by Prochlorococcus,” he said. “Hundreds of species rely on these guys.”

    Though other forms of phytoplankton may move in and help compensate for the loss of oxygen and food, Ribalet cautioned they are not perfect substitutes. “Evolution has made this very specific interaction,” he said. “Obviously, this is going to have an impact on this very unique system that has been established.”

    The findings challenge decades of assumptions that Prochlorococcus would thrive as waters warmed. Those predictions, however, were based on limited data from lab cultures. For this study, Ribalet and his team tested water samples while traversing the Pacific over the course of a decade.

    Over 100 research cruises — the equivalent of six trips around the globe — they counted some 800 billion individual cells taken from samples at every kilometer. In his lab at the University of Washington, Ribalet demonstrated the SeaFlow, a box filled with tubes, wires and a piercing blue laser. The custom-built device continuously pulls in seawater, which allowed the team to count the microbes in real time. “We have counted more Prochlorococcus than there are stars in the Milky Way,” Ribalet said.

    Paul Berube, a research scientist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology who studies Prochlorococcus but was not involved in the work, said the breadth of data is “groundbreaking.” And he said the results fit with what is known about the microbe’s streamlined genome, which makes it less adaptable to rapid environmental changes.

    “They’re at the very base of the food web, and they feed everything else — the fish eat the things that eat the phytoplankton and we eat the fish,” he said. “When changes are being made to the planet that influence these particular organisms that are essentially feeding us, that’s going to have big consequences.”

    To test whether Prochlorococcus might evolve to withstand hotter conditions, Ribalet’s team modeled a hypothetical heat-tolerant strain but found that even those would “not be enough to fully resist the warmest temperature if greenhouse emissions keep rising,” Ribalet said.

    He stressed that the study’s projections are conservative and don’t account for the impacts of plastic pollution or other ecological stressors. “We actually tried to put forth the best-case scenario,” Ribalet said. “In reality, things may be worse.”

    Steven Biller, an associate professor at Wellesley College, said the projected declines are “scary but plausible.” He noted Prochlorococcus form part of the “invisible forests” of the ocean — tiny organisms most people never think about, but are essential to human survival.

    “Half of all photosynthesis is happening in the oceans and Prochlorococcus is a really important part of that,” Biller said. “The magnitude of the potential impact is kind of striking.”

    Biller, Berube and Ribalet said that while other microbes may compensate somewhat, the broader risks to biodiversity and fisheries are real.

    “We know what drives global warming. There is no debate among the scientific community,” Ribalet said. “We need to curb greenhouse gas emissions.”

    He hopes the findings bring more attention to tropical oceans, which could serve as natural laboratories for warming adaptations and as early warning signals for ecological collapse.

    “For the first time, I want to be wrong. I would love to be wrong,” he said. “But these are data-driven results.”

    ___

    Follow Annika Hammerschlag on Instagram @ahammergram.

    ___

    The Associated Press receives support from the Walton Family Foundation for coverage of water and environmental policy. The AP is solely responsible for all content. For all of AP’s environmental coverage, visit https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment

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  • Climate change made deadly wildfires in Turkey, Greece and Cyprus more fierce, study finds

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    ATHENS, Greece — Climate change that has driven scorching temperatures and dwindling rainfall made massive wildfires in Turkey, Greece and Cyprus this summer burn much more fiercely, said a new study released Thursday.

    The study by World Weather Attribution said the fires that killed 20 people, forced 80,000 to evacuate and burned more than 1 million hectares (2.47 million acres) were 22% more intense in 2025, Europe’s worst recorded year of wildfires.

    Hundreds of wildfires that broke out in the eastern Mediterranean in June and July were driven by temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius (about 104 Fahrenheit), extremely dry conditions and strong winds.

    WWA, a group of researchers that examines whether and to what extent extreme weather events are linked to climate change, called its findings “concerning.”

    “Our study finds an extremely strong climate change signal towards hotter and drier conditions,” said Theodore Keeping, a researcher at Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College in London.

    “Today, with 1.3 degrees C of warming, we are seeing new extremes in wildfire behaviour that has pushed firefighters to their limit. But we are heading for up to 3 degrees C this century unless countries more rapidly transition away from fossil fuels,” Keeping said.

    The study found winter rainfall ahead of the wildfires had dropped by about 14% since the pre-industrial era, when a heavy reliance on fossil fuels began. It also determined that because of climate change, weeklong periods of dry, hot air that primes vegetation to burn are now 13 times more likely.

    The analysis also found an increase in the intensity of high-pressure systems that strengthened extreme northerly winds, known as Etesian winds, that fanned the wildfires.

    Gavriil Xanthopoulos, research director at the Institute of Mediterranean Forest Ecosystems of the Hellenic Agricultural Organization in Greece, said firefighters used to be able to wait for such winds to die down to control fires.

    “It seems that they cannot count on this pattern anymore,” Xanthopoulos said. More study is needed to understand how the wind patterns are reaching high velocities more often, he said.

    Flavio Lehner, an assistant professor in Earth and atmospheric sciences at Cornell University who was not involved in the WWA research, said its summary and key figures were consistent with existing literature and his understanding of how climate change is making weather more conducive to wildfire.

    Climate change is “loading the dice for more bad wildfire seasons” in the Mediterranean, Lehner said.

    ___

    The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

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  • Takeaways from scientists on the Trump administration’s work on climate change and public health

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    WASHINGTON — A Trump administration proposal to reverse a landmark finding that climate change is dangerous to the public relies heavily on a report from the Department of Energy that dozens of scientists say is flawed.

    The Environmental Protection Agency is seeking to use the DOE’s work to overturn the climate concept known as the “endangerment finding.” If the administration succeeds, many laws and rules aimed at reducing or restricting greenhouse gas emissions could be eliminated.

    The Associated Press surveyed scientists for their views. Here are some key takeaways from those who responded to AP’s questions:

    The most common critique from 64 scientists who responded to questions from AP was that the administration’s reports ignored, twisted or cherry-picked information to manufacture doubt about the severity and threat of climate change. Fifty-three of the 64 scientists criticized the quality of the reports.

    The Department of Energy report said Arctic sea ice has declined about 5% since 1980. That number is accurate for Antarctica, while Artic sea ice actually declined more than 40% in the period.

    Jennifer Marlon, director of data science at the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, highlighted a section on U.S. wildfires that acknowledged that fire data from before 1960 isn’t reliable for comparisons. Yet the administration used that unreliable data in a chart going back to 1920, leaving readers with the impression that wildfire rates were higher many decades ago than they are now, Marlon said.

    Experts repeatedly said the reports were biased. Nineteen scientists used variations of the phrase “cherry pick” to describe citations in the administration reports.

    Francois Bareille, a French economist, has done work concluding that previous estimates about climate-related crop losses in French agriculture were overly pessimistic. The administration’s reports cited that work, but Bareille said it shouldn’t have because it’s wrong to generalize his findings to other regions.

    Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather said the reports pulled a single figure from his work on climate modeling to build a case that the models scientists use are often overly pessimistic. Hausfather said his research actually concluded that climate models have performed quite well.

    He called the government’s process a “farce.”

    The authors of the report said any errors found will be corrected.

    In a joint statement, authors of the Energy Department report said the document clearly says it’s not meant to be a comprehensive review of climate science. Instead, the authors said, it’s focused on data and topics that the media and others have underreported and overlooked.

    A handful of scientists contacted by AP spoke positively about the report.

    One expert cited in the work praised it, saying it departed from unnecessarily alarmist findings of other national and international climate assessments.

    James Davidson, a professor at the University of Exeter focused on economics, has published work that disputes the mainstream consensus that rising carbon dioxide levels in the past caused warming.

    He said the Department of Energy report is giving voice to beliefs that were previously shut out.

    Mainstream scientists have already mobilized to respond. A few have voiced criticism on social media. The National Academy of Sciences, a collection of private, nonprofit institutions set up to provide independent and objective analysis, is preparing a fast-tracked special report on the latest evidence about whether greenhouse gas emissions endanger public health.

    The Energy Department is taking public comments on its work until Sept. 2. The EPA is holding several days of public hearings, with comments due by Sept. 22.

    ___

    The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

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  • Energy secretary says Trump administration may alter past National Climate Assessments

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    U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said this week that the Trump administration plans to review and potentially alter the nation’s climate science reports.

    In a Tuesday appearance on CNN’s “The Source,” Wright told CNN host Kaitlan Collins the National Climate Assessments have been removed from government websites “because we’re reviewing them.”

    “We will come out with updated reports on those and with comments on those,” Wright said.

    The National Climate Assessments are mandated by Congress and have been released five times since 2000. The federal reports, prepared by hundreds of volunteer scientists, are subject to extensive peer review and detail how climate change is affecting each region of the United States so far and provide the latest scientific forecasts.

    Wright accused the previous reports of being politically biased, stating that they “are not fair assessments of the data.”

    “When you get into departments and look at stuff that’s there and you find stuff that’s objectionable, you want to fix it,” he said.

    His statements came after the Trump administration in April dismissed more than 400 experts who had already started work on the sixth National Climate Assessment, due for publication in late 2027 or early 2028. The administration in July also removed the website of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, which housed the reports.

    The move marks the latest escalation in the Trump administration’s efforts to downplay climate science. The president and Department of Energy in recent months have championed fossil fuel production and slashed funding and incentives for renewable energy projects. This week, the Energy Department posted an image of coal on X alongside the words, “She’s an icon, she’s a legend, and she is the moment.”

    Meanwhile, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has proposed looser regulations for polluting sectors such as power plants and vehicles. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin in March proclaimed the administration was “driving a dagger straight into the heart of the climate change religion.”

    In his CNN appearance, Wright said the previous climate change assessments — including the 2018 report prepared during Trump’s first term — were not “a reasonable representation of broad climate science.”

    “They have been more politically driven to hype up a real issue, but an issue that’s just nowhere near the world’s greatest challenge,” he said of climate change. “Nobody’s who’s a credible economist or scientist believes that it is, except a few activists and alarmists.”

    Environmental experts were concerned by Wright’s comments.

    “Secretary Wright just confirmed our worst fears — that this administration plans to not just bury the scientific evidence but replace it with outright lies to downplay the worsening climate crisis and evade responsibility for addressing it,” said Rachel Cleetus, policy director for the Climate and Energy Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, who was among the authors dismissed by the administration.

    “This is one more alarming example of the Trump administration’s ongoing and highly politicized effort to obfuscate scientific truth to further its dangerous and deadly pro-fossil fuel agenda,” Cleetus said.

    The Energy Department last week also released its own climate report, commissioned by Wright, that questions the severity of climate change.

    “Both models and experience suggest that [carbon dioxide]-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed, and excessively aggressive mitigation policies could prove more detrimental than beneficial,” the report says.

    Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, noted in a post on X that the previous National Climate Assessments were authored by hundreds of scientists who were leading domain experts in their fields.

    “This would mark an extraordinary, unprecedented, and alarming level of interference in what has historically been a fair and systematic process,” Swain said of the possibility that previous reports could be altered.

    The Department of Energy did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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    Hayley Smith

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  • Compact, swift typhoons are more impacted by global warming.

    Compact, swift typhoons are more impacted by global warming.

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    Newswise — A group from Nagoya University in Japan has found that larger, slower-moving typhoons are more likely to be resilient against global warming. However, compact, faster-moving storms are more likely to be sensitive. These findings suggest an improved method to project the strength of typhoons under global warming conditions. Their report was published in Geophysical Research Letters.

    Tropical cyclones are among the most dangerous weather systems in the world, causing disruption, damage, and death in East Asia. As global temperatures increase, so does the threat of typhoons. But projecting the strength and structure of such storms also becomes more difficult. Understanding changes in ocean response is essential to mitigate the worst effects of typhoons.

    One way to understand tropical cyclones is to examine the relationship between the atmosphere and the ocean. The ocean-atmosphere coupling relationship influences weather patterns, ocean circulation, and climate variability.

    This is especially important for typhoons as the intensity of tropical cyclones is linked to increases in sea surface temperature (SST). As the size of a cyclone increases, SST decreases, limiting its intensity. However, under global warming, the SST is higher. As a result, this could make a typhoon last longer.

    “The rise in sea temperatures is concerning because a typical compact, fast-moving storm, for example Typhoon Faxai in 2019, caused severe damage to eastern Japan,” warned lead researcher Sachie Kanada. “Our findings show the intensity of such typhoons can strengthen under global warming conditions.”

    To understand how global warming can affect typhoons, Kanada and fellow researcher Hidenori Aiki examined the buffering effect of atmosphere-ocean coupling on typhoons. They used the latest simulator of weather systems, an atmosphere-ocean model called CReSS-NHOES, to evaluate the effect of atmosphere ocean coupling on changes in the intensity of strong typhoons. CReSS-NHOES combines the cloud simulation model CReSS, developed at Nagoya University, with the oceanographic model NHOES, developed by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology.

    The researchers used CReSS-NHOES to examine four powerful, but different-sized, typhoons in recent years: Trami (2018), Faxai (2019), Hagibis (2019), and Haishen (2020). These typhoons were all devastating; Trami and Faxai caused billions of dollars of damage and Hagibis led to the deaths of 118 people.

    Kanada and Aiki evaluated three scenarios: preindustrial era climate, a 2°C increase in SST, and a 4°C increase in SST. “We found that the degree to which typhoons strengthened per 1°C rise in SST varies significantly from typhoon to typhoon,” said Kanada. She was surprised by the change in hPa, a unit of pressure used in meteorology to measure atmospheric pressure and which represents the strength and intensity of a storm. “A typhoon, such as Trami, strengthens by only 3.1 hPa, while Faxai strengthens by as much as 16.2 hPa with a 1°C rise in SST.”

    The results of this study suggest that the atmosphere-ocean coupling effect buffers changes in storm intensity associated with global warming. But typhoons of different sizes may be affected differently. Storms with large eyes and small movement speeds cause SST to drop near their center, hindering their development. However, storms with small eyes and high movement speeds move away from the SST occurence. Such typhoons maintain constant heat at their center, increasing in intensity.

    Using these findings, the researchers created a new model to project the effect of tropical cyclones. They used a simple parameter called nondimensional storm speed (S0). Their model showed that S0 could distinguish between potentially destructive storms that are likely to strengthen under global warming and those that are resilient to the effects of global warming.

    “Currently, climate change projection research on typhoon intensity is conducted using models with coarse horizontal resolution or atmosphere-only models, which have difficulty reproducing the intensity and structure of strong typhoons,” Kanada explains. “This research using a high-resolution coupled regional atmosphere-ocean model can reproduce the intensity and structure of strong typhoons and the response of the ocean with high accuracy, so is expected to contribute not only to the quantitative projection of typhoon intensity under a warming climate, but also to the improvement of the accuracy of current typhoon intensity forecasts.”

    https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105659

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    Nagoya University

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  • The cause of recent cold waves over East Asia and North America was in the mid-latitude ocean fronts

    The cause of recent cold waves over East Asia and North America was in the mid-latitude ocean fronts

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    Newswise — If the world is warming, why are our winters getting colder? Indeed, East Asia and North America have experienced frequent extreme weather events since the 2000s that defy average climate change projections. Many experts have blamed Arctic warming and a weakening jet stream due to declining Arctic sea ice, but climate model experiments have not adequately demonstrated their validity. The massive power outage in Texas in February 2021 was caused by an unusual cold snap, and climate models are needed to accurately predict the risk of extreme weather events in order to prevent massive socioeconomic damage. In particular, climate technology leaders have recently set the ability to predict the climate of the next decade or so as an important goal.

    The Korea Institute of Science and Technology (KIST) announced that senior researcher Mi-Kyung Sung of the Sustainable Environment Research Center and professor Soon-Il An of the Center for Irreversible Climate Change at Yonsei University (President Seung-hwan Seo) have jointly discovered the role of mid-latitude oceans as a source of anomalous waves that are particularly frequent in East Asia and North America, paving the way for a mid- to long-term response to winter climate change.

    Ocean currents have a major impact on the weather and climate of neighboring countries as they transport not only suspended and dissolved matter but also heat energy. In particular, regions where temperatures change rapidly in a narrow latitudinal band, such as the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean and the downstream region of the Kuroshio Current in the Pacific Ocean, are called “ocean fronts,” and the KIST-Yonsei joint research team attributes the atmospheric wave response to the excessive accumulation of heat in these ocean fronts as the cause of the increase in extreme cold waves. From the early 2000s until recently, anomalous cold trend in East Asia coincided with the accumulation of heat near the Gulf Stream in the North Atlantic, and that in North America coincided with the intensification of heat accumulation near the Kuroshio Current. The oceanic frontal region acts as a thermostat to control the frequency of winter cold waves and anomalous high temperatures.

    The process of heat accumulation in oceanic frontal regions lasts from years to decades. During this time, a warming hiatus can occur in the continental regions that bucks the global warming trend. Conversely, during decades of ocean frontal cooling, continental regions appear to experience a sharp acceleration of warming. This suggests that the recent decadal cooling trend is essentially reinforced by temporary natural variability in the global climate system, and that we can expect unseasonably warm winter weather to become more prevalent as the heat buildup in the ocean front is relieved. These results are also evident in climate model experiments that vary the amount of heat accumulation near ocean fronts, showing that observations and climate model experiments are consistent in their conclusions, in contrast to conventional sea ice theory. This highlights the importance of accurately simulating ocean front variability in climate models to improve our ability to predict medium- and long-term climate change over the next decade.

    As global warming intensifies in the future and changes the structure of the ocean, these regional climate variations could change dramatically. Climate model experiments with increased greenhouse gases have shown that North America is likely to experience shorter and fewer warming hiatus, while East Asia is likely to experience more frequent intersections between warming hiatus and acceleration. These different continental responses are driven by the different oceanic responses of the Kuroshio Current and the Gulf Stream to global warming.

    “Applying the effects of ocean fronts revealed in this research to global warming climate models can improve climate change forecasts for the near future,” said Dr. Mi-Kyung Sung of KIST. “It will provide important references for long-term forecasts of winter energy demand and the construction of climate change response infrastructure to prevent climate disasters such as the 2021 Texas power outage.”

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    KIST was established in 1966 as the first government-funded research institute in Korea. KIST now strives to solve national and social challenges and secure growth engines through leading and innovative research. For more information, please visit KIST’s website at https://eng.kist.re.kr/

    The research, which was funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT (Minister Jong-ho Lee) through the Mid-Career Researcher Support Project (2021R1A2C1003934), the Leading Research Center Support Project (2018R1A5A1024958), and the Ultra-High Performance Computing Utilization Advancement Project (2022M3K3A1094114), was published on November 27 in the international journal Nature Communications

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    National Research Council of Science and Technology

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  • Some mosquitoes like it hot

    Some mosquitoes like it hot

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    Newswise — Certain populations of mosquitoes are more heat tolerant and better equipped to survive heat waves than others, according to new research from Washington University in St. Louis.

    This is bad news in a world where vector-borne diseases are an increasingly global health concern. Most models that scientists use to estimate vector-borne disease risk currently assume that mosquito heat tolerances do not vary. As a result, these models may underestimate mosquitoes’ ability to spread diseases in a warming world.

    Researchers led by Katie M. Westby, a senior scientist at Tyson Research Center, Washington University’s environmental field station, conducted a new study that measured the critical thermal maximum (CTmax), an organism’s upper thermal tolerance limit, of eight populations of the globally invasive tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus. The tiger mosquito is a known vector for many viruses including West Nile, chikungunya and dengue.

    “We found significant differences across populations for both adults and larvae, and these differences were more pronounced for adults,” Westby said. The new study is published Jan. 8 in Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution.

    Westby’s team sampled mosquitoes from eight different populations spanning four climate zones across the eastern United States, including mosquitoes from locations in New Orleans; St. Augustine, Fla.; Huntsville, Ala.; Stillwater, Okla.; St. Louis; Urbana, Ill.; College Park, Md.; and Allegheny County, Pa.

    The scientists collected eggs in the wild and raised larvae from the different geographic locations to adult stages in the lab, tending the mosquito populations separately as they continued to breed and grow. The scientists then used adults and larvae from subsequent generations of these captive-raised mosquitoes in trials to determine CTmax values, ramping up air and water temperatures at a rate of 1 degree Celsius per minute using established research protocols.

    The team then tested the relationship between climatic variables measured near each population source and the CTmax of adults and larvae. The scientists found significant differences among the mosquito populations.

    The differences did not appear to follow a simple latitudinal or temperature-dependent pattern, but there were some important trends. Mosquito populations from locations with higher precipitation had higher CTmax values. Overall, the results reveal that mean and maximum seasonal temperatures, relative humidity and annual precipitation may all be important climatic factors in determining CTmax.

    “Larvae had significantly higher thermal limits than adults, and this likely results from different selection pressures for terrestrial adults and aquatic larvae,” said Benjamin Orlinick, first author of the paper and a former undergraduate research fellow at Tyson Research Center. “It appears that adult Ae. albopictus are experiencing temperatures closer to their CTmax than larvae, possibly explaining why there are more differences among adult populations.”

    “The overall trend is for increased heat tolerance with increasing precipitation,” Westby said. “It could be that wetter climates allow mosquitoes to endure hotter temperatures due to decreases in desiccation, as humidity and temperature are known to interact and influence mosquito survival.”

    Little is known about how different vector populations, like those of this kind of mosquito, are adapted to their local climate, nor the potential for vectors to adapt to a rapidly changing climate. This study is one of the few to consider the upper limits of survivability in high temperatures — akin to heat waves — as opposed to the limits imposed by cold winters.

    “Standing genetic variation in heat tolerance is necessary for organisms to adapt to higher temperatures,” Westby said. “That’s why it was important for us to experimentally determine if this mosquito exhibits variation before we can begin to test how, or if, it will adapt to a warmer world.”

    Future research in the lab aims to determine the upper limits that mosquitoes will seek out hosts for blood meals in the field, where they spend the hottest parts of the day when temperatures get above those thresholds, and if they are already adapting to higher temperatures. “Determining this is key to understanding how climate change will impact disease transmission in the real world,” Westby said. “Mosquitoes in the wild experience fluctuating daily temperatures and humidity that we cannot fully replicate in the lab.”

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    Washington University in St. Louis

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  • A Novel Toxic Gas Sensor by KRISS Improves the Limit of Detection

    A Novel Toxic Gas Sensor by KRISS Improves the Limit of Detection

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    Newswise — The Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science (KRISS, President Dr. Ho Seong Lee) developed a toxic gas sensor with the world’s highest sensitivity. This sensor can precisely monitor nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a toxic gas in the atmosphere, at room temperature with low power consumption and ultra-high sensitivity. It can be applied to diverse fields, such as detection of residual gases during semiconductor manufacturing process and research on electrolysis catalysts.

    NO2, produced by the high-temperature combustion of fossil fuels and primarily emitted through automobile exhaust or factory smoke, contributes to an increase in mortality due to air pollution. In South Korea, the annual average concentration of NO2 in the air is regulated to be 30 ppb* or lower by presidential decree. Highly sensitive sensors, therefore, are required to accurately detect gases at extremely low concentrations.
    * ppb: parts per billion

    In recent times, the use of toxic gases which are potentially fatal to humans has been on the rise due to the development of high-tech industries, including semiconductor manufacturing. While some laboratories and factories have adopted semiconductor-type sensors for safety, the challenge lies in their low response sensitivity, making them unable to detect toxic gases that may even be perceptible to the human nose. To increase the sensitivity, they consume a lot of energy in the end because they must operate at high temperatures.

    The newly developed sensor, a next-generation semiconductor-type toxic gas sensor based on advanced materials, exhibits significantly improved performance and usability compared to conventional sensors. With its outstanding sensitivity to chemical reactions, the new sensor can detect NO2 much more sensitively than previously reported semiconductor-type sensors, a sensitivity that is 60 times higher. Moreover, the novel sensor consumes minimal power operating at room temperature, and its optimal semiconductor manufacturing process enables large-area synthesis at low temperatures, thereby reducing fabrication costs.

    The key to the technology lies in the MoS2 nanobranch material developed by KRISS. Unlike the conventional 2D flat structure of MoS2, this material is synthesized in a 3D structure resembling tree branches, thereby enhancing the sensitivity. Besides its strength of uniform material synthesis on a large area, it can create a 3D structure by adjusting the carbon ratio in the raw material without additional processes.

    The KRISS Semiconductor Integrated Metrology Team has experimentally demonstrated that their gas sensor can detect NO2 in the atmosphere at concentrations as low as 5 ppb. The calculated detection limit of the sensor is 1.58 ppt**, marking the world’s highest level of sensitivity.
    ** ppt: parts per trillion

    This achievement enables precise monitoring of NO2 in the atmosphere with low power consumption. The sensor not only saves time and cost but also offers excellent resolution. It is expected to contribute to research on improving atmospheric conditions by detecting annual average concentrations of NO2 and monitoring real-time changes.

    Another characteristic of this technology is its ability to adjust the carbon content in the raw material during the material synthesis stage, thereby altering the electrochemical properties. This can be utilized to develop sensors capable of detecting gases other than NO2, such as residual gases produced during the semiconductor manufacturing processes. The excellent chemical reactivity of the material can also be exploited to enhance the performance of electrolysis catalysts for hydrogen production.

    Dr. Jihun Mun, a senior researcher of the KRISS Semiconductor Integrated Metrology Team, said, “This technology, which overcomes the limitations of conventional gas sensors, will not only meet government regulations but also facilitate precise monitoring of domestic atmospheric conditions. We will continue follow-up research so that this technology can be applied to the development of various toxic gas sensors and catalysts, extending beyond the monitoring of NO2 in the atmosphere.”

     

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    As a national metrology institute (NMI) of Korea founded in 1975, KRISS (Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science) has developed measurement standards technology and played a pivotal role in upgrading Korea’s main industries to the global level.

    The results of this study, supported by the fundamental project of KRISS and the Nanomaterial Technology Development Project of Ministry of Science and ICT, were published in the August issue of Small Structures (IF: 15.9), a prestigious academic journal in the field of materials science.

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    National Research Council of Science and Technology

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  • Developing nanocatalysts to overcome limitations of water electrolysis technology

    Developing nanocatalysts to overcome limitations of water electrolysis technology

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    Newswise — Green hydrogen can be produced through water electrolysis technology, which uses renewable energy to split water into hydrogen and oxygen without emitting carbon dioxide. However, the production cost of green hydrogen is currently around $5 per kilogram, which is two to three times higher than gray hydrogen obtained from natural gas. For the practical use of green hydroten, the innovation in water electrolysis technology is required for the realization of hydrogen economy, especially for Korea where the utilization of renewable energy is limited owing to geographical reasons.

    Dr. Kyung Joong Yoon’s research team at the Energy Materials Research Center of the Korea Institute of Science and Technology (KIST) has developed a nanocatalyst for high-temperature water electrolysis that can retain a high current density of more than 1A/cm2 for a long time at temperatures above 600 degrees. While the degradation mechanisms of nanomaterials at high temperatures have been elusive thus far, the team identified the fundamental reasons of abnormal behavior of nanomateirals and successfully resolved issues, eventually improving performance and stability in realistic water electrolysis cells.

    The electrolysis technology can be classified into low- and high-temperature electrolysis. While low-temperature electrolysis operating at temperatures below 100 degrees Celsius has long been developed and is technologically more mature, high-temperature electrolysis operating above 600 degrees Celsius offers higher efficiency and is considered as a next-generation technology with a strong potential for further cost-down. However, its commercialization has been hindered by the lack of thermal stability and insufficient lifetime owing to high-temperature degradation, such as corrosion and structural deformation. In particular, nanocatalysts, which are widely used to improve the performance of low-temperature water electrolyzers, quickly deteriorate at high operating temperatures, making it difficult to effectively use them for high-temperature water electrolysis.

    To overcome this limitation, the team developed a new nanocatalyst synthetic techniques that suppresses the formation of harmful compounds causing high temperature degradation. By systematically analyzing the nanoscale phenomena using transmission electron microscopy, the researchers identified specific substances causing severe structural alterations, such as strontium carbonate and cobalt oxide and successfully removed them to achieve highly stable nanocatalysts in terms of chemical and physical properties.

    When the team applied the nanocatalyst to a high-temperature water electrolysis cell, it more than doubled hydrogen production rate and operated for more than 400 hours at 650 degrees without degradation. This technique was also sucessfully applied to a practical large-area water electrolysis cell, confirming its strong potential for scale-up and commercial use.

    “Our newly developed nanomaterials achieved both high performance ans stability for high-temperature water electrolysis technology, and it can contribute to lower the production cost of green hydrogen, making it economically competitive with gray hydrogen in the future,” said Dr. Kyungjoong Yoon of KIST. “For commercialization, we plan to develop automated processing techniques for mass production in cooperation with industry cell manufacturers.”

    ###

    KIST was established in 1966 as the first government-funded research institute in Korea. KIST now strives to solve national and social challenges and secure growth engines through leading and innovative research. For more information, please visit KIST’s website at https://eng.kist.re.kr/

    This research was supported by the Ministry of Science and ICT (Minister Lee Jong-ho) through the KIST Major Project and Climate Change Response Technology Development Project (2020M1A2A2080862), and the results were published in the latest issue of the Chemical Engineering Journal (IF 15.1, top 3.2% in JCR), an international journal in the field of chemical engineering.

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    National Research Council of Science and Technology

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  • Triggering positive points crucial for climate crisis resolution.

    Triggering positive points crucial for climate crisis resolution.

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    Newswise — Positive tipping points must be triggered if we are to avoid the severe consequences of damaging Earth system tipping points, researchers say.

    With global warming on course to breach 1.5oC, at least five Earth system tipping points are likely to be triggered – and more could follow.

    Once triggered, Earth system tipping points would have profound local and global impacts, including sea-level rise from major ice sheet melting, mass species extinction from dieback of the Amazon rainforest and disruption to weather patterns from a collapse of large-scale ocean circulation currents.

    The new commentary – published in One Earth by researchers from the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter – says positive tipping points must be triggered to help reach the levels of decarbonisation required. 

    “One reason for hope is that many of the tipping thresholds that are likely to be crossed first are so-called slow tipping systems, which can be briefly exceeded without a commitment to tipping,” said lead author Dr Paul Ritchie.

    “However, rapid decarbonisation that minimises the distance of any overshoot and – even more importantly – limits the time spent beyond a threshold is critical for avoiding triggering climate tipping points.”

    Dr Jesse Abrams said: “One mechanism for achieving the rapid decarbonisation levels required is ironically through positive tipping points, moments when beneficial changes rapidly gain momentum.”

    The research team point to the sales seen in electric vehicles, particularly across Scandinavia, as evidence for the capability of human systems exhibiting positive tipping points.

    Professor Tim Lenton added: “Under the correct enabling conditions, such as affordability, attractiveness and accessibility, Norway have managed to transition the market share of electric vehicles from under 10% to near 90% within a decade.”

    The article is entitled: “Tipping points: Both problem and solution.”

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    University of Exeter

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  • “Energy Droughts” in Wind and Solar Can Last Nearly a Week, Research Shows

    “Energy Droughts” in Wind and Solar Can Last Nearly a Week, Research Shows

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    Newswise — Solar and wind power may be free, renewable fuels, but they also depend on natural processes that humans cannot control. It’s one thing to acknowledge the risks that come with renewable energy: the sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow, but what happens when the grid loses both of these energy sources at the same time?

    This phenomenon is known as a compound energy drought. In a new paper, researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) found that in some parts of the country, these energy droughts can last nearly a week.

    “When we have a completely decarbonized grid and depend heavily on solar and wind, energy droughts could have huge amounts of impact on the grid,” said Cameron Bracken, an Earth scientist at PNNL and lead author on the paper. Grid operators need to know when energy droughts will occur so they can prepare to pull energy from different sources. On top of that, understanding where, when, and for how long energy droughts occur will help experts manage grid-level battery systems that can store enough electricity to deploy during times when energy is needed most.

    The team published the findings October 31 in the journal Renewable Energy and will be presenting at this week’s annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union.

    Hunting for cloudy, windless days

    In the past, researchers studied compound energy droughts on a state or regional scale. But not much has been studied on a nationwide scale. To find out more about the risk of energy droughts over the entire continental U.S., the researchers dug into weather data and then used historical energy demand data to understand how often an energy drought occurs when that energy is needed the most.

    The team examined 4 decades of hourly weather data for the continental U.S. and homed in on geographical areas where actual solar and wind energy plants operate today. Weather data included wind speeds at the height of wind turbines as well as the intensity of solar energy falling on solar panels. Times when the weather data showed stagnant air and cloudy skies translated into lower energy generation from the wind and solar plants—a compound energy drought.

    “We essentially took a snapshot of the infrastructure as of 2020 and ran it through the 40 years of weather data, starting in 1980,” Bracken said. “We are basically saying ‘here is how the current infrastructure would have performed under historical weather conditions.’”

    The researchers found that energy droughts can occur in any season across the continental U.S., though they vary widely in frequency and duration. In California, for instance, cloudy and windless conditions might last several days, whereas the same conditions might last for only a few hours in Texas. Utah, Colorado, and Kansas experience frequent energy droughts both over several-hour timescales as well as several-day timescales. The Pacific Northwest and Northeast, meanwhile, seem to experience energy droughts that last several hours more frequently than several days. The different timescales (hourly versus daily) will help inform the energy drought’s impact on the grid—will it last just a few hours, or several days?

    Overall, researchers found that the longest potential compound energy drought on an hourly timescale was 37 hours (in Texas), while the longest energy drought on a daily timescale was six days (in California).

    Energy drought at peak demand

    Simply knowing the where and how of energy droughts is just one piece of the puzzle, Bracken said. He also stressed that a drought of solar and wind power won’t necessarily cause an energy shortage. Grid operators can turn to other sources of energy like hydropower, fossil fuels, or energy transmitted from other regions in the U.S.

    But as the nation aims to move away from fossil fuels and rely more on solar and wind power, grid operators must understand whether energy droughts will occur during times when the demand for electricity might exceed supply. Climate change brings hotter summers and more intense winter storms, and these are times when not only people use more energy to stay safe (for cooling or heating), but access to electricity might mean life or death.

    To understand the possible connection between energy droughts and energy demand, the team mapped their historical, hypothetical generation data onto 40 years of historical energy demand data that also covered real power plants across the continent.

    The data showed that “wind and solar droughts happen during peak demand events more than you would expect due to chance,” Bracken said, meaning that more often than not, windless and cloudless periods occurred during times when demand for power was high. For now, Bracken isn’t certain that the correlation means causation.

    “This could be due to well-understood meteorological phenomenon such as inversions suppressing wind and increasing temperatures, but further study is needed,” Bracken said.

    Energy storage for energy droughts

    Studying patterns in the frequency and duration of energy droughts will also help inform the deployment of long-duration energy storage projects, said Nathalie Voisin, an Earth scientist at PNNL and coauthor on the paper. The paper is the first to provide a uniform standard of what a compound energy drought is and how long it can last in different parts of the country.

    “We’re providing insight on how to adequately design and manage multi-day storage. So when you know an energy drought is going to last for five hours or five days, you can incentivize storage to be managed accordingly,” Voisin said.

    Next, Bracken and the team will extrapolate weather and demand data into the future to see how climate change will affect the frequency and duration of energy droughts. The team plans to model energy droughts all the way to the end of the century combined with evolving infrastructure.

    This research was funded by PNNL through its internal GODEEEP initiative.

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    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

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  • First Study of its Kind Reveals Impact of River Sediment on US Coastline

    First Study of its Kind Reveals Impact of River Sediment on US Coastline

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    Newswise — As sea level continues to rise, threatening ecosystems, communities and infrastructure, experts are searching for ways to better understand how coastal environments may change in the future. A new research breakthrough published in Science reveals a novel way to study these changes by measuring how much sediment from the nation’s rivers makes it to the coastline. 

     

    Measuring, Mapping and Modeling 

    After testing many approaches in many different watersheds, UNCW Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences Professor Joanne Halls and co-authors Scott Ensign (Stroud Water Research Center) and Erin Peck (Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center and USGS Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center) developed a solution to measure the rate of river sediment accumulation across all watersheds of the contiguous United States.

    Using her expertise in Geographic Information Science (GIS), Halls developed a new web application called Sediment Pancakes. The app uses publicly available geospatial data to create digital models and interactive maps of the entire continental U.S. coast, including 4,972 rivers and streams. This is the first continent-wide examination of its kind. 

    “We tend to know much more about our large rivers and very little about the amount of river sediment in the smaller creeks and tributaries, even though these smaller systems are the majority of the landscape,” Halls said. “To our knowledge, this new web application is the only tool that provides local estimates of riverine sediment for all rivers of the contiguous U.S.”  

    The published paper, “Watershed Sediment Cannot Offset Sea Level Rise in Most US Tidal Wetlands,” concluded that 72% of all rivers do not provide adequate sediment, on an annual basis, to keep up with current estimates of sea level rise. In other words, river-borne sediment alone is insufficient to provide the elevation gain needed to offset increasing sea levels found in tidal wetlands like marshes, swamps and bogs. 

     

    Planning for the Future 

    As many local government agencies are building coastal resilience plans, and researchers nationwide are designing monitoring strategies to study and protect the coastal environments, the Sediment Pancakes app is a tool they can use to inform their planning.  

    “The more we leverage the enormous amount of map data toward principles of ‘smart growth,’ the better we can make our local communities,” Halls said. “My goal is to deliver map tools that assist local residents and planners so that we empower people to be engaged, exchange ideas in a meaningful and equitable way, and inspire students to be creative problem-solvers.” 

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    University of North Carolina Wilmington

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  • Ross School of Business to Host 2024 ClimateCAP MBA Summit

    Ross School of Business to Host 2024 ClimateCAP MBA Summit

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    Newswise — The Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan will host more than 500 MBA students and business leaders from around the country on Feb. 9-10, 2024 for the annual ClimateCAP summit. Students will learn about the business implications and risks of climate change and what promising innovation and entrepreneurship opportunities are emerging.

    “Sustainability in Motion” is the theme of the two-day conference, which sold out in three hours. It will cover topics such as the future of mobility, the greenwashing dilemma, regenerative food systems, and much more. Attendees will explore solutions for a more sustainable and equitable business ecosystem.

    “We’re delighted that our students will host this year’s ClimateCAP summit,” said Sharon Matusik, Edward J. Frey Dean. “Climate change presents one of the most pressing challenges of our time, and through rigorous research, educational initiatives, and events like this summit, we’re striving to become part of the solution, contributing to building a healthier, more resilient world.”

    The goal of the highly-anticipated event is to provide future business leaders with the knowledge and skills they will need to anticipate and manage climate risks and opportunities throughout their careers.  

    “My generation and generations to come will have to reckon with the havoc and destruction that climate change has and will bring,” said Nick Rojas, a third-year MBA/MS student at U-M’s Erb Institute. “This unprecedented challenge also provides an opportunity for us to create not just a more environmentally sustainable, but an economically and socially just society as well. The private sector can and must be part of the solution–in concert with all stakeholders. Preparing the business leaders of tomorrow for this challenge is essential, and we see this summit as a crucial part of that journey.”

    Sustainability in Motion captures the energy and enthusiasm needed to solve the climate crisis as we approach the midpoint of the decade. Recent legislative wins like the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act have laid the policy foundation to spur private investment in scaling new technologies required to meet our ambitious decarbonization targets.

    “Now we have to capitalize on that momentum and explore meaningful, tangible pathways for MBAs at leading institutions to join the fight,” said Rojas.

    For more information, visit climatecap.org.

    About Michigan Ross
    The Stephen M. Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan is a diverse learning community grounded in the principle that business can be an extraordinary vehicle for positive change in today’s dynamic global economy. The Ross School of Business mission is building a better world through business. Through thought and action, members of the Ross community drive change and innovation that improves business and society.

    Michigan Ross is consistently ranked among the world’s leading business schools. Academic degree programs include the Bachelor of Business Administration, Full-Time MBA, Part-Time MBA (Online and Weekend formats), Executive MBA, Global MBA, Master of Accounting, Master of Business Analytics, Master of Management, Master of Supply Chain Management, and PhD. In addition, the school delivers programs for individuals and custom executive education programs targeting general management, leadership development, and strategic human resource management. For more information, visit MichiganRoss.umich.edu.

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    University of Michigan

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