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Tag: clear message

  • Republicans Can’t Figure It Out

    Republicans Can’t Figure It Out

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    Democrats yesterday continued to perform better at the polls than in the polls.

    Even as many Democrats have been driven to a near panic by a succession of recent polls showing President Joe Biden’s extreme vulnerability, the party in yesterday’s elections swept almost all the most closely watched contests. Democrats won the Kentucky governorship by a comfortable margin, romped to a lopsided victory in an Ohio ballot initiative ensuring abortion rights, and easily captured an open Pennsylvania Supreme Court seat. Most impressive, Democrats held the Virginia state Senate and were projected to regain control of the Virginia state House, despite an all-out campaign from Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin to win both chambers. Among the major contests, Democrats fell short only in the governor’s race in Mississippi.

    The results extended the most striking pattern from the 2022 midterm election, when Republicans failed to match the usual gains for the party out of the White House at a time of widespread public dissatisfaction with the president. Democrats, just as they did last November, generated yesterday’s unexpectedly strong results primarily by amassing decisive margins in urban centers and the large inner suburbs around them.

    The outcomes suggested that, as in 2022, an unusually broad group of voters who believe that Democrats have not delivered for their interests voted for the party’s candidates anyway because they apparently considered the Republican alternatives a threat to their rights and values on abortion and other cultural issues.

    “The driving force of our politics since 2018 has been fear and opposition to MAGA,” the Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg told me. “It was the driving force in 2022 and 2023, and it will be in 2024. The truth is, what we’re facing in our domestic politics is unprecedented. Voters understand it, they are voting against it, and they are fighting very hard to prevent our democracy from slipping away.”

    The surprising results yesterday could not have come at a better time for Democratic leaders. Many in the party have been driven to a near frenzy of anxiety by a succession of recent polls showing Biden trailing former President Donald Trump.

    Yesterday’s victories have hardly erased all of Biden’s challenges. For months, polls have consistently found that his approval rating remains stuck at about 40 percent, that about two-thirds of voters believe he’s too old to effectively serve as president for another term, and that far more voters express confidence in Trump’s ability to manage the economy than in Biden’s.

    But, like the 2022 results in many of the key swing states, the Democrats’ solid showing yesterday demonstrated that the party can often overcome those negative assessments by focusing voters’ attention on their doubts about the Trump-era Republican Party. “Once again, we saw that what voters say in polls can be very different than what they do when faced with the stark choice between Democrats who are fighting for a better life for families and dangerous candidates who are dead set on taking away their rights and freedoms,” Jenifer Fernandez Ancona, the chief strategy officer of Way to Win, a liberal group that focuses on electing candidates of color, told me in an email last night.

    Even more than a midterm election, these off-year elections can turn on idiosyncratic local factors. But the common thread through most of the major contests was the Democrats’ continuing strength in racially diverse, well-educated major metropolitan areas, which tend to support liberal positions on cultural issues such as abortion and LGBTQ rights. Those large population centers have trended Democratic for much of the 21st century. But that process accelerated after Trump emerged as the GOP’s leader in 2016, and has further intensified since the conservative majority on the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion.

    Across yesterday’s key contests, Democrats maintained a grip on major population centers. In Kentucky, Democratic Governor Andy Beshear carried the counties centered on Louisville and Lexington by about 40 percentage points each over Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron.

    In Ohio, abortion-rights supporters dominated most of the state’s largest communities. That continued the pattern from the first round of the state’s battle over abortion. In that election, as I wrote, the abortion-rights side, which opposed the change, won 14 of the state’s 17 largest counties, including several that voted for Trump in 2020.

    The results were equally emphatic in yesterday’s vote on a ballot initiative to repeal the six-week-abortion ban that the GOP-controlled state legislature passed, and Republican Governor Mike DeWine signed, in 2019. The abortion ban was buried under a mountain of votes for repeal in the state’s biggest places: An overwhelming two-thirds or more of voters backed repeal in the state’s three largest counties (which are centered on Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati), and the repeal side won 17 of the 20 counties that cast the most ballots, according to the tabulations posted in The New York Times.

    Democrats held the Virginia state Senate through strong performances in suburban areas as well. Especially key were victories in which Democrats ousted a Republican incumbent in a suburban Richmond district, and took an open seat in Loudoun County, an outer suburb of Washington, D.C.

    The race for an open Pennsylvania Supreme Court seat followed similar tracks. Democrat Daniel McCaffery cruised to victory in a race that hinged on debates about abortion and voting rights. Like Democrats in other states, McCaffery amassed insuperable margins in Pennsylvania’s largest population centers: He not only posted big leads in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, but he also built enormous advantages in each of the four large suburban counties outside Philadelphia, according to the latest vote tally.

    From a national perspective, the battle for control of the Virginia state legislature probably offered the most important signal. The Virginia race presented the same competing dynamics that are present nationally. Though Biden won the state by 10 percentage points in 2020, recent polls indicate that more voters there now disapprove than approve of his performance. And just as voters in national polls routinely say they trust Trump more than Biden on the economy and several other major issues, polls found that Virginia voters gave Republicans a double-digit advantage on economy and crime. Beyond all that, Youngkin raised enormous sums to support GOP legislative candidates and campaigned tirelessly for them.

    Yet even with all those tailwinds, Youngkin still failed to overturn the Democratic majority in the state Senate, and lost the GOP majority in the state House. The principal reason for Youngkin’s failure, analysts in both parties agree, was public resistance to his agenda on abortion. Youngkin had elevated the salience of abortion in the contest by explicitly declaring that if voters gave him unified control of both legislative chambers, the GOP would pass a 15-week ban on the procedure, with exceptions for rape, incest, and threats to the life of the mother.

    Youngkin and his advisers described that proposal as a “reasonable” compromise, and hoped it would become a model for Republicans beyond the red states that have already almost all imposed more severe restrictions. But the results made clear that most Virginia voters did not want to roll back access to abortion in the commonwealth, where it is now legal through 26 weeks of pregnancy. “What Virginia showed us is that the Glenn Youngkin playbook failed,” Mini Timmaraju, the CEO of Reproductive Freedom for All, an abortion-rights group, told me last night. “We showed that even Republican voters in Virginia weren’t buying it, didn’t go for it, saw right through it.”

    Youngkin’s inability to capture the Virginia state legislature, even with all the advantages he enjoyed, will probably make the 2024 GOP presidential contenders even more skittish about openly embracing a national ban on abortion. But Timmaraju argued that yesterday’s results showed that voters remain focused on threats to abortion rights. “Our job is to make sure that the American people don’t forget who overturned Roe v. Wade,” she told me.

    None of yesterday’s results guarantees success for Biden or Democrats in congressional races next year. It is still easier for other Democrats to overcome doubts about Biden than it will be for the president himself to do so. In particular, the widespread concern in polls that Biden is too old to serve another term is a problem uniquely personal to him. And few Democrats really want to test whether they can hold the White House in 2024 without improving Biden’s ratings for managing the economy. Trump’s base of white voters without a college degree may be more likely to turn out in a presidential than off-year election as well.

    But a clear message from the party’s performance yesterday is that, however disenchanted voters are with the country’s direction under Biden, Democrats can still win elections by running campaigns that prompt voters to consider what Republicans would do with power. “We have an opening here with the effective framing around protecting people’s freedoms,” Fernandez Ancona told me. “Now we can push forward on the economy.”

    Yesterday’s results did not sweep away all the obstacles facing Biden. But the outcome, much like most of the key contests in last fall’s midterm, show that the president still has a viable pathway to a second term through the same large metro areas that keyed this unexpectedly strong showing for Democrats.

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    Ronald Brownstein

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  • An Unusual Theory Suggests That Sex Helps the Body Tolerate a Fetus

    An Unusual Theory Suggests That Sex Helps the Body Tolerate a Fetus

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    In the early 1990s, while studying preeclampsia in Guadeloupe, Pierre-Yves Robillard hit upon a realization that seemed to shake the foundations of his field. Preeclampsia, a pregnancy complication that causes some 500,000 fetal deaths and 70,000 maternal deaths around the world each year, had for decades been regarded as a condition most common among new mothers, whose bodies were mounting an inappropriate attack on a first baby. But Robillard, now a neonatologist and epidemiologist at Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de La Réunion, on Réunion Island in the Indian Ocean, kept seeing the condition crop up during second, third, or fourth pregnancies—a pattern that a few other studies had documented, but had yet to fully explain. Then, Robillard noticed something else. “These women had changed the father,” he told me. The catalyst in these cases of preeclampsia, he eventually surmised, wasn’t the newness of pregnancy. It was the newness of paternal genetic material that, maybe, the mother hadn’t had enough exposure to before.

    Robillard’s idea was unconventional not only because it challenged the dogma of the time, but because it implied certain evolutionary consequences. Preeclampsia appears to be exclusive (or almost exclusive) to humans, and may have arisen as a by-product of the particularly aggressive ways in which our fetuses pillage their mother’s body for resources. So, Robillard and his colleagues posited, maybe the dangers it poses then pressured humans into developing a bizarre trait: being rather inefficient at conceiving offspring. Maybe, if humans aren’t terribly fertile, they need to have a lot of sex; maybe having a lot of sex repeatedly exposes a mother to her partner’s semen, inuring her to the molecular makeup of future offspring. If preeclampsia is a kind of immune overreaction, then perhaps unprotected sex is the world’s most unconventional allergy shot.

    That, at least, is what Robillard and his colleagues contend—a notion that’s “a bit controversial, and a bit awkward,” Inkeri Lokki, an immunologist and reproductive biologist at the University of Helsinki, told me. She remembers a senior researcher in the field once framing the upshot of the hypothesis as “pick your partner early, and practice.”

    Foreign genetic material aside, a mother’s body has every reason to be wary of a fetus. Pregnancy is an intergenerational struggle in which the fetus tries to pillage all the nutrients it can from the mother’s tissues, while the mother tries to keep some of her own resources in reserve.

    For most mammals, the two parties easily reach a lasting stalemate. Among humans, though, the fetus starts “with the upper hand,” Amy Boddy, an evolutionary biologist at UC Santa Barbara, told me. Whether it’s because of the extreme nutritional demands of our energy-guzzling brain, or just a constraint of how the primate lineage evolved, no other developing mammal invades quite as vigorously as the human embryo does: Through two waves of invasion, our placental cells burrow so deeply into the lining of the uterus that they breach its muscular layer, where they unfurl, melt, and rewire an entire set of blood vessels until they widen and relax. In the process, tissues liquify, and cells are forced apart, all to get an enormous amount of “blood delivered to the placenta,” Julienne Rutherford, a biological anthropologist at the University of Arizona College of Nursing, told me.

    The fetus thrives in these conditions—but it also asks so much of the mother’s body that it almost invites pushback. Preeclampsia, then, at least when it appears prior to 34 weeks of gestation, is arguably a manifestation of a human mother’s defenses wising up to the invasion, then kicking into overdrive. When researchers examine tissue samples in early-onset preeclampsia cases, they tend to find that the placenta has been prevented from invading the uterus thoroughly enough, Haley Ragsdale, a biological anthropologist at Northwestern University, told me. Now at risk of starving, the fetus tries to juice more from mom—in part by raising maternal blood pressure, preeclampsia’s hallmark symptom. (High blood pressure that arises in the last few weeks of pregnancy can signal late-onset preeclampsia, but researchers generally think the causes are distinct.)

    Why exactly the placenta’s invasion flags in early-onset cases remains contentious, Offer Erez, an ob-gyn at Soroka University Medical Center, in Israel, told me. One possibility, as Robillard and others argue, is that a mother’s immune system, unaccustomed to her partner’s particular blend of molecules, codes the fetus as foreign, and dispatches a fleet of defenses to waylay the threat. If that’s indeed the case, a logical workaround might involve familiarizing her body with those foreign substances—and nipping her overreaction in the bud.

    Semen could do the trick: It’s chock-full of paternal material, and introduced into the vaginal tract, where a legion of immune cells and molecules roam. It also contains signaling molecules that might be able to mollify the maternal immune system. Repeat exposures with no harm send a clear message: I am safe, says Gustaaf Dekker, who leads the department of obstetrics and gynecology at Northern Adelaide Local Health Network, in Australia, and who has collaborated for years with Robillard.

    In the past three decades, Dekker, Robillard, and their colleagues have amassed a large amount of evidence to support that idea. Across several populations, the risk of early-onset preeclampsia seems to be higher among couples conceiving for the first time; it’s also higher among people using donor sperm and eggs. The risk also seems lower among couples who have a lot of penetrative or oral sex before they get pregnant—at least, if they skip the condoms, some studies suggest. There’s even evidence that repeat exposures to seminal fluid can make female mice more tolerant of cells sampled from their mates.

    From an evolutionary perspective, the theory goes even further. If it is important to indoctrinate the maternal immune system with semen, “that is a strong selective pressure” for humans to adopt a suite of behaviors to facilitate that exposure, says Bernard Crespi, an evolutionary biologist at Simon Fraser University, in Canada, who’s collaborated with Robillard. Our bodies’ combative approach to placentation could help to explain our semi-monogamous nature, our comparably low fertility among mammals, and our comparatively large testes, which can provide a generous supply of sperm. It may even have influenced the unusual ways in which the female human body conceals its own fertility. Unlike other mammals, we don’t regularly enter an obvious period of heat, or visibly signal when we ovulate—both traits that encourage more frequent sex in pursuit of reproduction. If repeat couplings are just kind of our thing, maybe it’s because they make our pregnancies that much safer.

    The paternal-immunity hypothesis is not the only possible explanation for early-onset preeclampsia, and for some researchers, it is far from the strongest one. Fathers could be playing a different role in the condition. Some evidence suggests that certain males pass down DNA that predisposes their offspring to implant a bit differently in the womb, Laura Schulz, a women’s-health researcher at the University of Missouri School of Medicine, pointed out to me. And Carlos Galaviz Hernández, a geneticist at CIIDIR Unidad Durango, in Mexico, told me that immune compatibility may matter, too: The mother might be able to better tolerate some partners, analogous to the way that organ transplants are more successful if certain molecular signatures match. In some cases, the mother’s DNA may be the dominant force. Certain women, for instance, seem genetically predisposed to developing the condition, regardless of whom they partner with.

    Jimmy Espinoza, a maternal-fetal-medicine specialist at UTHealth Houston’s McGovern Medical School, also pointed out to me that the idea Robillard has championed has its own scientific issues. In recent years, especially, other teams of researchers have found evidence that seems to directly contradict it—in some cases, finding that some people may reduce their chances of preeclampsia if they switch to a different partner for a subsequent child. (Dekker and Robillard argue that several of these studies had issues, including possible misdiagnoses and not distinguishing enough between early- and late-onset preeclampsia.)

    All of these ideas may have some truth to them—in part because preeclampsia, like cancer, is a catchall term for different disease pathways that manifest similarly at their tail end, Andrea Edlow, a maternal-fetal-medicine specialist at Massachusetts General Hospital, told me. And despite evidence to the contrary, “I still support the hypothesis,” Dekker told me. In his opinion, “nobody has come up with a better one.”

    Even if the semen hypothesis turns out to be correct, it’s hard to know what to do with that information. Breakthroughs are desperately needed: Although preeclampsia has been documented for millennia, diagnostics, treatments, and preventives are scant. Maybe better understanding paternal exposures will someday lead to preconception vaccines, or targeted immunotherapies for people deemed high risk. Today, though, the idea’s most actionable takeaways are very limited. In Robillard’s ideal world, clinicians would recommend at least six months of sexually active cohabitation, or at least 100 sexual encounters, before conception; pregnant people would also routinely disclose their sexual history with their partner to their doctor, and changes in partners would be noted in medical charts. Unsurprisingly, “it’s been an uphill battle” to sell some of those ideas to colleagues, Dekker told me.

    Edlow, for one, generally supports the idea of paternal tolerance. But “it’s not something I would talk to patients about,” she told me. Sarah Kilpatrick, the chair of the department of obstetrics and gynecology at Cedars-Sinai, in Los Angeles, feels similarly. There’s just not quite enough evidence to build a recommendation, she told me—and designing a large clinical trial to rigorously test these ideas is difficult, especially for a condition with such serious risks.

    Plus, a pre-pregnancy injunction to have more sex to lower the risk of preeclampsia can only really apply to a very specific audience. It assumes heterosexuality; it implies monogamy. Even the amount of sex that Robillard advocates for could pose a challenge for some couples who meet those criteria. And heterosexual, monogamous couples hardly represent the full universe of people who are getting pregnant—among them people who are pursuing single parenthood, who get pregnant through intrauterine insemination or in vitro fertilization, who are seeking donor sperm or embryos, and who get pregnant quickly or perhaps unintentionally. And although the chances of preeclampsia may be slightly elevated in some of those cohorts, in the broadest terms, “why person X gets it, and why person Y doesn’t get it, we just don’t know,” Kilpatrick told me. Plus, a clinical strategy that pushes for, or even seems to justify, long-term sexual monogamy puts medical professionals in the position of actively prescribing a very specific and limited vision of human sexuality, Rutherford, the biological anthropologist, told me.

    Frankly, Edlow told me, “I don’t want to take this condition that affects pregnancy and make it all about men’s sperm.” There may yet be other ways to trigger tolerance, or keep the maternal immune system in check. Preeclampsia, for whatever reason, may be an evolutionary snarl our lineage got tangled up in. But to address it, or even solve it, people may not need to bend to evolution’s whims.

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    Katherine J. Wu

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