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Donald Trumpsattack on Venezuelaand the kidnapping of its head of state have overshadowed his less brazen but possibly more effective regime-change operation in Honduras. No one can be sure if the National Partys Nasry Tito Asfura really won the presidential election on 30 November, but he was Trumps endorsed candidate and will almost certainly assume office on 27 January.
By John Perry
Since2021Honduras has had a left-wing government, headed by the Libre partys Xiomara Castro. She revitalised a neglected public health service, reduced poverty and curbed gang violence. But presidential power in Honduras is heavily constrained. There is a local story of child being asked who governs the country and replying: The president, the head of the army and theUSambassador. Castros husband, Manuel Zelaya, elected president in 2005, was ousted in acoupin 2009, led by an army general and with theUSembassys tacit support.
The left was fraudulently denied power in elections in2013and2017, allowing Juan Orlando Hernndez, endorsed by theUS, to run Honduras as anarco-state. In 2021, however, Castros majority was overwhelming. Unlike Hernndez, she has respected the constitutional limit of one term in office.
The Libre candidate, former minister Rixi Moncada, led several opinion polls earlier in the year. When Trumps armada entered the Caribbean in late August, however, Moncadas two right-wing opponents, Asfura and the Liberal Partys Salvador Nasralla, claimed that Honduras would be next if Moncada, whom they falsely portrayed as a communist, became president.
Hondurans limited faith in their electoral system was further damaged in late October, with thedisclosureof a possible plot to repeat what happened in 2017, when a premature announcement of theUS-backed candidates victory was immediately endorsed by theUSembassy. On 9 November, a trial run of the new electronic voting system partially failed.
For most of November, polls indicated that Moncadas main challenger was Nasralla, with Asfura trailing a poor third. Four days before the vote, however, Trump denounced not only Moncada but also Nasralla (whom he called a borderline communist), warning that narcoterrorists would run Honduras if either was elected. He thensuggestedthat theUSwould continue to supply aid to Honduras only if Asfura won. Unverified reports appeared on social media threatening the 1.3 million households which rely onremittancesfrom relatives in theUSthat their December payments would be blocked if Asfura lost.
Two days before the polls, Trump pardoned Hernndez, who had been extradited when his term ended and was serving a45-year prison sentencefor trafficking cocaine to theUSwhile publicly presenting himself as an ally in the war on drugs. The pardon could have backfired but instead proved to be an astute boost to Asfuras campaign, since many of his supporters still idolise Hernndez.
By election night, Moncada was trailing in the polls behind both right-wingers. In early voting returns, Nasralla had the advantage over Asfura. There was a break in announcing the results. When the count resumed, Asfura had taken the lead. Trump stepped in again, accusing officials of trying to change the outcome and warning of hell to pay if the numbers changed in Nasrallas favour.
Interruptions and delays in the count stretched over days and then weeks. When Libre claimed that an electoral coup was taking place, its representative on the electoral council was sidelined by the other two parties and then personally sanctioned by Washington. The election result was eventually declared more than three weeks later, on 24 December, as Hondurans were celebrating Christmas. Asfura was declared the winner by fewer than 27,000 votes. The army gave its backing to the electoral councils decision.
Up to 130,000 votes, however, were still to be counted: enough to change the outcome of the election. The Honduran Congress met a few days ago and instructed the electoral council to carry out a complete recount, threatening to do the job itself if necessary. Before it met, a homemade bomb was thrown at a National Party lawmaker, injuring her as she entered the congressional building. TheUSembassy hasthreatenedgrave consequences if Asfuras victory is overturned.
Electoral observers from the Organisation of American States and the European Union disapproved of the delays but found no evidence of fraud. On Trumps interference they were silent. Xiomara Castro haswrittento theUSpresident requesting a meeting to discuss what happened. It seems unlikely that she will get one.
This article was first published by theLondon Review of Books Blog
John Perrylives in Masaya, Nicaragua, where, perplexingly, he writes and edits books on British housing and social policy.
Pressenza New York
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