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Milei promised to dollarize and close the central bank. What is he waiting for?
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Mary Anastasia O’Grady
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Milei promised to dollarize and close the central bank. What is he waiting for?
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Mary Anastasia O’Grady
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For Citadel CEO Ken Griffin, the political implications of still-elevated inflation are not lost on him.
Inflation has come down a lot from 9% in 2022 to 2.9% in the government’s latest CPI report. Core PCE prices, the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, rose 2.9% in August, matching July’s climb.
But inflation has been sticky as tariffs take hold, and Griffin predicted inflation will continue to be in the mid-2% to 3% range next year, still above the Fed’s 2% target.
“The American voters have been exhausted of inflation,” he told CNBC on Thursday.
In 2024, the high cost of living was a focal point in Trump’s reelection campaign, and Biden-era inflation hurt Democrats. They lost the White House and Congress, while Trump won all seven swing states.
Many voters blamed Democratic policies—including stimulus spending—for sustained, high costs, exit polls found.
“There’s no doubt that the president and the Republicans came to power on the back of frustration with inflation,” Griffin said. “I would not underestimate how grating a 3% inflation rate could be to tens of millions of American households.”
Inflation could feature heavily in midterm elections next year, as the Republican Party looks to defend narrow majorities in the House and Senate. And voters are souring on Trump’s economy.
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed only 28% of respondents approved of Trump’s handling of their cost of living. A YouGov/Economist poll put Trump’s approval rating on the economy at an all-time low of 35%.
One indicator of affordability has been a thorn in Trump’s side: high mortgage rates. Yet as Trump looks to the Fed for homeowner relief, many worry about political influence over the independent body.
Trump has been criticized lately for pressuring the Federal Reserve and threatening its independence. Critics argue that his efforts to appoint loyalists to the Fed, public calls to lower interest rates, and attempts to remove a sitting governor represent a clear move to sway monetary policy for political purposes.
Griffin advised that continued Fed independence would be in Trump’s interest.
“If I were the president, I would let the Fed do their job,” he said. “I would let the Fed have as much perceived and real independence as possible, because the Fed often has to make choices that are pretty painful to make.”
The Federal Open Market Committee cut interest rates by a fourth of a percent earlier this month to buoy a slowing labor market. The move comes after months of continued pressure from the Trump administration on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other committee members to cut rates.
Still, President Donald Trump has been vocal about cutting rates further, even though the move likely will risk further price increases.
Griffin warned that erosion of Fed independence could lead to Americans conflating the White House and central bank.
“If the president’s perceived as being in control of the Fed, then what happens when those painful choices have to be made?”
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Nino Paoli
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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday said 97.62 per cent of the ₹2,000 banknotes in circulation as on May 19, 2023, had been returned by February 29, 2024, with the remaining notes in circulation continuing to be legal tender.
Also read: RBI revises BBPS framework to streamline bill payments, enhance protection
The central bank, in its update on withdrawal of ₹2,000 denomination banknotes, underscored that the total value of ₹2,000 banknotes in circulation, which amounted to ₹3.56 lakh crore as at the close of business on May 19, 2023 when their withdrawal was announced, has declined to ₹8,470 crore as at the close of business on February 29, 2024.
The facility for exchange of the ₹2,000 banknotes is available at RBI’s 19 Issue Offices since May 19, 2023, per a central bank statement.
From October 09, 2023, RBI Issue Offices are also accepting ₹2,000 banknotes from individuals/entities for depositing into their bank accounts.
Further, members of the public are sending ₹2,000 banknotes through India Post from any post office within the country, to any of the RBI Issue Offices for credit to their bank accounts.
The RBI initiated the exercise for withdrawal of ₹2,000 banknotes on May 19, 2023, as the objective of introducing them (to meet the currency requirement of the economy after the withdrawal of legal tender status of all ₹500 and ₹1,000 banknotes in circulation in the November-December 2016 period) was met once banknotes in other denominations became available in adequate quantities.
“About 89 per cent of the ₹2,000 denomination banknotes were issued prior to March 2017 and are at the end of their estimated life-span of 4-5 years.It has also been observed that this denomination is not commonly used for transactions. Further, the stock of banknotes in other denominations continues to be adequate to meet the currency requirement of the public.”
Also read: NBFC-MFIs seek revision in annual household income criteria for giving microfinance loans
“In view of the above, and in pursuance of the “Clean Note Policy” of the Reserve Bank of India, it has been decided to withdraw the ₹2,000 denomination banknotes from circulation,” the central bank said in a statement on May 19, 2023.
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(Bloomberg) — Argentina devalued the peso by 54%, overhauled its crawling peg and announced massive spending cuts to eliminate its primary fiscal deficit next year as the first steps in President Javier Milei’s shock-therapy program.
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The newly inaugurated administration weakened the official exchange rate to 800 pesos per dollar, Economy Minister Luis Caputo said in a televised address after the close of local markets on Tuesday. It was 366.5 per dollar before the address. The central bank will henceforth target a monthly devaluation of 2%.
The moves were welcomed by the International Monetary Fund. The central bank is scheduled to announce new monetary measures on Wednesday.
“There is no more money,” Caputo said repeatedly in the recorded video, adding that Argentina needs to solve its “addiction” to fiscal deficits.
The government will slash spending equivalent to 2.9% of gross domestic product, in a radical fiscal adjustment, according to a senior economic official.
Cuts to energy subsidies will save the 0.5% of GDP, while reductions to transport subsidies will save 0.2%, according to the government’s estimates. The administration also expects reductions in social security and pensions to save an additional 0.4% of GDP. The government plans to end indexation of pension payments, the official said.
The finance ministry also expects tax revenue to grow by 2.2% next year.
Other measures announced including halving the number of ministries, cutting transfers to provinces and suspending public works. At the same time, Argentina will boost certain social welfare programs, Caputo said.
The IMF praised the new government’s “bold initial actions” shortly after Caputo’s announcement. “Their decisive implementation will help stabilize the economy and set the basis for more sustainable and private-sector led growth,” spokesperson Julie Kozack said in a statement.
Dramatic Steps
The dramatic first steps follow a somber inauguration speech on Sunday, when Milei warned that Argentines will have to endure months of pain while he works to pull the country from the economic crisis inherited from his predecessor. Inflation is already running at more than 140% annually, and prices are expected to jump between 20% and 40% in the months to come, the president said.
The government had closed Argentina’s export registry Monday, a technical step that often foreshadows a currency devaluation or major policy change. The central bank also announced Monday the official currency market would operate with limited transactions — a restriction it said it will lift on Wednesday.
The devaluation was long seen as inevitable. In the run-up to Milei’s inauguration, markets were signaling a currency drop of about 27% in the first week of the new government, while investment banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and local private advisory firms suggested it could weaken about 44%. Grocers had already increased prices and banks were offering sharply weaker retail exchange rates hours before the Tuesday announcement.
Argentine authorities have for years slowed the peso’s decline in the official market through currency controls and import restrictions in an attempt to protect dwindling reserves. That hodgepodge of capital controls has spurred at least a dozen exchange rates, hampering business and restricting investment in South America’s second-largest economy. On the campaign trail, Milei pledged to scrap the currency altogether, replacing it with the US dollar.
“We’re always worse off because our response has been to attack the consequences but not the problem,” Caputo said in his address. “What we’ve come to do is the opposite of what they always did, and that’s solve the root problem.”
On Dec. 7, the prior administration had let the peso slip by about 5%, while simultaneously limiting the amount of greenbacks banks could hold in order to prevent them from hoarding dollars. The government had been burning reserves to keep the currency largely steady at 350 per dollar since the August primary vote, when Milei’s surprise showing sent markets into a tailspin. In parallel markets, that rate is about 1,000.
Since being spooked by his emergence in the August primary, investors have changed tack on the firebrand libertarian, cheering on his first steps as president-elect — namely, his decision to pick Wall Street veterans for some of the main cabinet positions while distancing himself from more radical proposals including dollarizing the economy and shuttering the central bank. As he begins his four-year term, the rally will be put to the test.
Caputo previously served as finance chief in the administration of Mauricio Macri, when he negotiated a $16.5 billion deal with holdout bondholders, allowing Argentina to return to international capital markets. Amid a currency run in 2018, Macri tapped him to take over at the central bank, but he only served for a few months before unexpectedly stepping down amid tensions with the IMF.
Caputo has tapped longtime colleague Santiago Bausili, a Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan Chase & Co veteran, to run Argentina’s central bank.
—With assistance from Davison Santana and Patrick Gillespie.
(Updates with details on new crawling peg from first paragraph)
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