ReportWire

Tag: central bank

  • Opinion | The Cure for the Run on the Argentine Peso

    [ad_1]

    Milei promised to dollarize and close the central bank. What is he waiting for?

    [ad_2]

    Mary Anastasia O’Grady

    Source link

  • Ken Griffin has a warning for Trump and the GOP: ‘I would not underestimate how grating a 3% inflation rate could be’ on Americans | Fortune

    [ad_1]

    For Citadel CEO Ken Griffin, the political implications of still-elevated inflation are not lost on him.

    Inflation has come down a lot from 9% in 2022 to 2.9% in the government’s latest CPI report. Core PCE prices, the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, rose 2.9% in August, matching July’s climb. 

    But inflation has been sticky as tariffs take hold, and Griffin predicted inflation will continue to be in the mid-2% to 3% range next year, still above the Fed’s 2% target.

    “The American voters have been exhausted of inflation,” he told CNBC on Thursday.

    In 2024, the high cost of living was a focal point in Trump’s reelection campaign, and Biden-era inflation hurt Democrats. They lost the White House and Congress, while Trump won all seven swing states.

    Many voters blamed Democratic policies—including stimulus spending—for sustained, high costs, exit polls found.

    “There’s no doubt that the president and the Republicans came to power on the back of frustration with inflation,” Griffin said. “I would not underestimate how grating a 3% inflation rate could be to tens of millions of American households.”

    Inflation could feature heavily in midterm elections next year, as the Republican Party looks to defend narrow majorities in the House and Senate. And voters are souring on Trump’s economy.

    A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed only 28% of respondents approved of Trump’s handling of their cost of living. A YouGov/Economist poll put Trump’s approval rating on the economy at an all-time low of 35%.

    One indicator of affordability has been a thorn in Trump’s side: high mortgage rates. Yet as Trump looks to the Fed for homeowner relief, many worry about political influence over the independent body.

    Trump has been criticized lately for pressuring the Federal Reserve and threatening its independence. Critics argue that his efforts to appoint loyalists to the Fed, public calls to lower interest rates, and attempts to remove a sitting governor represent a clear move to sway monetary policy for political purposes. 

    Griffin advised that continued Fed independence would be in Trump’s interest.

    “If I were the president, I would let the Fed do their job,” he said. “I would let the Fed have as much perceived and real independence as possible, because the Fed often has to make choices that are pretty painful to make.”

    The Federal Open Market Committee cut interest rates by a fourth of a percent earlier this month to buoy a slowing labor market. The move comes after months of continued pressure from the Trump administration on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other committee members to cut rates.

    Still, President Donald Trump has been vocal about cutting rates further, even though the move likely will risk further price increases. 

    Griffin warned that erosion of Fed independence could lead to Americans conflating the White House and central bank.

    “If the president’s perceived as being in control of the Fed, then what happens when those painful choices have to be made?”

    Fortune Global Forum returns Oct. 26–27, 2025 in Riyadh. CEOs and global leaders will gather for a dynamic, invitation-only event shaping the future of business. Apply for an invitation.

    [ad_2]

    Nino Paoli

    Source link

  • Trump fires Fed governor Lisa Cook, opening new front in fight for control over central bank

    [ad_1]

    President Donald Trump said Monday night that he’s firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, an unprecedented move that would constitute a sharp escalation in his battle to exert greater control over what has long been considered an institution independent from day-to-day politics.Trump said in a letter posted on his Truth Social platform that he is removing Cook effective immediately because of allegations that she committed mortgage fraud.Cook said Monday night that she would not step down. “President Trump purported to fire me ‘for cause’ when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so,” she said in an emailed statement. “I will not resign.”Bill Pulte, a Trump appointee to the agency that regulates mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, made the accusations last week. Pulte alleged that Cook had claimed two primary residences — in Ann Arbor, Michigan, and Atlanta — in 2021 to get better mortgage terms. Mortgage rates are often higher on second homes or those purchased to rent.Trump’s move is likely to touch off an extensive legal battle that will probably go to the Supreme Court and could disrupt financial markets. Stock futures declined slightly late Monday, as did the dollar against other major currencies.If Trump succeeds in removing Cook from the board, it could erode the Fed’s political independence, which is considered critical to its ability to fight inflation because it enables it to take unpopular steps like raising interest rates. If bond investors start to lose faith that the Fed will be able to control inflation, they will demand higher rates to own bonds, pushing up borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans and business loans.Cook has retained Abbe Lowell, a prominent Washington attorney. Lowell said Trump’s “reflex to bully is flawed and his demands lack any proper process, basis or legal authority,” adding, “We will take whatever actions are needed to prevent his attempted illegal action.”Cook was appointed to the Fed’s board by then-President Joe Biden in 2022 and is the first Black woman to serve as a governor. She was a Marshall Scholar and received degrees from Oxford University and Spelman College, and she has taught at Michigan State University and Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.Her nomination was opposed by most Senate Republicans, and she was approved on a 50-50 vote with the tie broken by then-Vice President Kamala Harris.Questions about ‘for cause’ firingThe law allows a president to fire a Fed governor “for cause,” which typically means for some kind of wrongdoing or dereliction of duty. The president cannot fire a governor simply because of differences over interest rate policy.Establishing a for-cause removal typically requires some type of proceeding that would allow Cook to answer the charges and present evidence, legal experts say, which hasn’t happened in this case.”This is a procedurally invalid removal under the statute,” said Lev Menand, a law professor at Columbia law school and author of “The Fed Unbound,” a book about the Fed’s actions during the COVID-19 pandemic.Menand also said for-cause firings are typically related to misconduct while in office, rather than based on private misconduct from before an official’s appointment.”This is not someone convicted of a crime,” Menand said. “This is not someone who is not carrying out their duties.”Fed governors vote on the central bank’s interest rate decisions and on issues of financial regulation. While they are appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate, they are not like cabinet secretaries, who serve at the pleasure of the president. They serve 14-year terms that are staggered in an effort to insulate the Fed from political influence.No presidential precedentWhile presidents have clashed with Fed chairs before, no president has sought to fire a Fed governor. In recent decades, presidents of both parties have largely respected Fed independence, though Richard Nixon and Lyndon Johnson put heavy pressure on the Fed during their presidencies — mostly behind closed doors. Still, that behind-the-scenes pressure to keep interest rates low, the same goal sought by Trump, has widely been blamed for touching off rampant inflation in the late 1960s and ’70s.President Harry Truman pushed Thomas McCabe to step down from his position as Fed chair in 1951, though that occurred behind the scenes.The Supreme Court signaled in a recent decision that Fed officials have greater legal protections from firing than other independent agencies, but it’s not clear if that extends to this case.Menand noted that the Court’s conservative majority has taken a very expansive view of presidential power, saying, “We’re in uncharted waters in a sense that it’s very difficult to predict that if Lisa Cook goes to court what will happen.”Sarah Binder, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said the president’s use of the “for cause” provision is likely an effort to mask his true intent. “It seems like a fig leaf to get what we wants, which is muscling someone on the board to lower rates,” she said.A fight over interest ratesTrump has said he would only appoint Fed officials who would support lower borrowing costs. He recently named Stephen Miran, a top White House economic adviser, to replace another governor, Adriana Kugler, who stepped down about five months before her term officially ended Aug. 1.Trump appointed two governors in his first term, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, so replacing Cook would give Trump appointees a 4-3 majority on the Fed’s board.”The American people must have the full confidence in the honesty of the members entrusted with setting policy and overseeing the Federal Reserve,” Trump wrote in a letter addressed to Cook, a copy of which he posted online. “In light of your deceitful and potentially criminal conduct in a financial matter, they cannot and I do not have such confidence in your integrity.”Trump argued that firing Cook was constitutional. “I have determined that faithfully enacting the law requires your immediate removal from office,” the president wrote.Cook will have to fight the legal battle herself, as the injured party, rather than the Fed.Trump’s announcement drew swift rebuke from advocates and former Fed officials.Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., called Trump’s attempt to fire Cook illegal, “the latest example of a desperate President searching for a scapegoat to cover for his own failure to lower costs for Americans. It’s an authoritarian power grab that blatantly violates the Federal Reserve Act, and must be overturned in court.”Trump has repeatedly attacked the Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell, for not cutting its short-term interest rate, and even threatened to fire him.Forcing Cook off the Fed’s governing board would provide Trump an opportunity to appoint a loyalist. Trump has said he would only appoint officials who would support cutting rates.Powell signaled last week that the Fed may cut rates soon even as inflation risks remain moderate. Meanwhile, Trump will be able to replace Powell in May 2026, when Powell’s term expires. However, 12 members of the Fed’s interest-rate setting committee have a vote on whether to raise or lower interest rates, so even replacing the chair might not guarantee that Fed policy will shift the way Trump wants.__Associated Press writer Fatima Hussein contributed.

    President Donald Trump said Monday night that he’s firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, an unprecedented move that would constitute a sharp escalation in his battle to exert greater control over what has long been considered an institution independent from day-to-day politics.

    Trump said in a letter posted on his Truth Social platform that he is removing Cook effective immediately because of allegations that she committed mortgage fraud.

    Cook said Monday night that she would not step down. “President Trump purported to fire me ‘for cause’ when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so,” she said in an emailed statement. “I will not resign.”

    Bill Pulte, a Trump appointee to the agency that regulates mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, made the accusations last week. Pulte alleged that Cook had claimed two primary residences — in Ann Arbor, Michigan, and Atlanta — in 2021 to get better mortgage terms. Mortgage rates are often higher on second homes or those purchased to rent.

    Trump’s move is likely to touch off an extensive legal battle that will probably go to the Supreme Court and could disrupt financial markets. Stock futures declined slightly late Monday, as did the dollar against other major currencies.

    If Trump succeeds in removing Cook from the board, it could erode the Fed’s political independence, which is considered critical to its ability to fight inflation because it enables it to take unpopular steps like raising interest rates. If bond investors start to lose faith that the Fed will be able to control inflation, they will demand higher rates to own bonds, pushing up borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans and business loans.

    Cook has retained Abbe Lowell, a prominent Washington attorney. Lowell said Trump’s “reflex to bully is flawed and his demands lack any proper process, basis or legal authority,” adding, “We will take whatever actions are needed to prevent his attempted illegal action.”

    Cook was appointed to the Fed’s board by then-President Joe Biden in 2022 and is the first Black woman to serve as a governor. She was a Marshall Scholar and received degrees from Oxford University and Spelman College, and she has taught at Michigan State University and Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.

    Her nomination was opposed by most Senate Republicans, and she was approved on a 50-50 vote with the tie broken by then-Vice President Kamala Harris.

    Questions about ‘for cause’ firing

    The law allows a president to fire a Fed governor “for cause,” which typically means for some kind of wrongdoing or dereliction of duty. The president cannot fire a governor simply because of differences over interest rate policy.

    Establishing a for-cause removal typically requires some type of proceeding that would allow Cook to answer the charges and present evidence, legal experts say, which hasn’t happened in this case.

    “This is a procedurally invalid removal under the statute,” said Lev Menand, a law professor at Columbia law school and author of “The Fed Unbound,” a book about the Fed’s actions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Menand also said for-cause firings are typically related to misconduct while in office, rather than based on private misconduct from before an official’s appointment.

    “This is not someone convicted of a crime,” Menand said. “This is not someone who is not carrying out their duties.”

    Fed governors vote on the central bank’s interest rate decisions and on issues of financial regulation. While they are appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate, they are not like cabinet secretaries, who serve at the pleasure of the president. They serve 14-year terms that are staggered in an effort to insulate the Fed from political influence.

    No presidential precedent

    While presidents have clashed with Fed chairs before, no president has sought to fire a Fed governor. In recent decades, presidents of both parties have largely respected Fed independence, though Richard Nixon and Lyndon Johnson put heavy pressure on the Fed during their presidencies — mostly behind closed doors. Still, that behind-the-scenes pressure to keep interest rates low, the same goal sought by Trump, has widely been blamed for touching off rampant inflation in the late 1960s and ’70s.

    President Harry Truman pushed Thomas McCabe to step down from his position as Fed chair in 1951, though that occurred behind the scenes.

    The Supreme Court signaled in a recent decision that Fed officials have greater legal protections from firing than other independent agencies, but it’s not clear if that extends to this case.

    Menand noted that the Court’s conservative majority has taken a very expansive view of presidential power, saying, “We’re in uncharted waters in a sense that it’s very difficult to predict that if Lisa Cook goes to court what will happen.”

    Sarah Binder, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said the president’s use of the “for cause” provision is likely an effort to mask his true intent. “It seems like a fig leaf to get what we wants, which is muscling someone on the board to lower rates,” she said.

    A fight over interest rates

    Trump has said he would only appoint Fed officials who would support lower borrowing costs. He recently named Stephen Miran, a top White House economic adviser, to replace another governor, Adriana Kugler, who stepped down about five months before her term officially ended Aug. 1.

    Trump appointed two governors in his first term, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, so replacing Cook would give Trump appointees a 4-3 majority on the Fed’s board.

    “The American people must have the full confidence in the honesty of the members entrusted with setting policy and overseeing the Federal Reserve,” Trump wrote in a letter addressed to Cook, a copy of which he posted online. “In light of your deceitful and potentially criminal conduct in a financial matter, they cannot and I do not have such confidence in your integrity.”

    Trump argued that firing Cook was constitutional. “I have determined that faithfully enacting the law requires your immediate removal from office,” the president wrote.

    Cook will have to fight the legal battle herself, as the injured party, rather than the Fed.

    Trump’s announcement drew swift rebuke from advocates and former Fed officials.

    Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., called Trump’s attempt to fire Cook illegal, “the latest example of a desperate President searching for a scapegoat to cover for his own failure to lower costs for Americans. It’s an authoritarian power grab that blatantly violates the Federal Reserve Act, and must be overturned in court.”

    Trump has repeatedly attacked the Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell, for not cutting its short-term interest rate, and even threatened to fire him.

    Forcing Cook off the Fed’s governing board would provide Trump an opportunity to appoint a loyalist. Trump has said he would only appoint officials who would support cutting rates.

    Powell signaled last week that the Fed may cut rates soon even as inflation risks remain moderate. Meanwhile, Trump will be able to replace Powell in May 2026, when Powell’s term expires. However, 12 members of the Fed’s interest-rate setting committee have a vote on whether to raise or lower interest rates, so even replacing the chair might not guarantee that Fed policy will shift the way Trump wants.

    __

    Associated Press writer Fatima Hussein contributed.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • ₹2000 withdrawal: Total value of banknotes in circulation declined to ₹8,470 crore by Feb-end: RBI

    ₹2000 withdrawal: Total value of banknotes in circulation declined to ₹8,470 crore by Feb-end: RBI

    [ad_1]

    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Thursday said 97.62 per cent of the ₹2,000 banknotes in circulation as on May 19, 2023, had been returned by February 29, 2024, with the remaining notes in circulation continuing to be legal tender.

    Also read: RBI revises BBPS framework to streamline bill payments, enhance protection

    The central bank, in its update on withdrawal of ₹2,000 denomination banknotes, underscored that the total value of ₹2,000 banknotes in circulation, which amounted to ₹3.56 lakh crore as at the close of business on May 19, 2023 when their withdrawal was announced, has declined to ₹8,470 crore as at the close of business on February 29, 2024.

    The facility for exchange of the ₹2,000 banknotes is available at RBI’s 19 Issue Offices since May 19, 2023, per a central bank statement.

    From October 09, 2023, RBI Issue Offices are also accepting ₹2,000 banknotes from individuals/entities for depositing into their bank accounts.

    Further, members of the public are sending ₹2,000 banknotes through India Post from any post office within the country, to any of the RBI Issue Offices for credit to their bank accounts.

    The RBI initiated the exercise for withdrawal of ₹2,000 banknotes on May 19, 2023, as the objective of introducing them (to meet the currency requirement of the economy after the withdrawal of legal tender status of all ₹500 and ₹1,000 banknotes in circulation in the November-December 2016 period) was met once banknotes in other denominations became available in adequate quantities.

    “About 89 per cent of the ₹2,000 denomination banknotes were issued prior to March 2017 and are at the end of their estimated life-span of 4-5 years.It has also been observed that this denomination is not commonly used for transactions. Further, the stock of banknotes in other denominations continues to be adequate to meet the currency requirement of the public.”

    Also read: NBFC-MFIs seek revision in annual household income criteria for giving microfinance loans

    “In view of the above, and in pursuance of the “Clean Note Policy” of the Reserve Bank of India, it has been decided to withdraw the ₹2,000 denomination banknotes from circulation,” the central bank said in a statement on May 19, 2023.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Argentina’s Milei Devalues Peso by 54% in First Batch of Shock Measures

    Argentina’s Milei Devalues Peso by 54% in First Batch of Shock Measures

    [ad_1]

    (Bloomberg) — Argentina devalued the peso by 54%, overhauled its crawling peg and announced massive spending cuts to eliminate its primary fiscal deficit next year as the first steps in President Javier Milei’s shock-therapy program.

    Most Read from Bloomberg

    The newly inaugurated administration weakened the official exchange rate to 800 pesos per dollar, Economy Minister Luis Caputo said in a televised address after the close of local markets on Tuesday. It was 366.5 per dollar before the address. The central bank will henceforth target a monthly devaluation of 2%.

    The moves were welcomed by the International Monetary Fund. The central bank is scheduled to announce new monetary measures on Wednesday.

    “There is no more money,” Caputo said repeatedly in the recorded video, adding that Argentina needs to solve its “addiction” to fiscal deficits.

    The government will slash spending equivalent to 2.9% of gross domestic product, in a radical fiscal adjustment, according to a senior economic official.

    Cuts to energy subsidies will save the 0.5% of GDP, while reductions to transport subsidies will save 0.2%, according to the government’s estimates. The administration also expects reductions in social security and pensions to save an additional 0.4% of GDP. The government plans to end indexation of pension payments, the official said.

    The finance ministry also expects tax revenue to grow by 2.2% next year.

    Other measures announced including halving the number of ministries, cutting transfers to provinces and suspending public works. At the same time, Argentina will boost certain social welfare programs, Caputo said.

    The IMF praised the new government’s “bold initial actions” shortly after Caputo’s announcement. “Their decisive implementation will help stabilize the economy and set the basis for more sustainable and private-sector led growth,” spokesperson Julie Kozack said in a statement.

    Dramatic Steps

    The dramatic first steps follow a somber inauguration speech on Sunday, when Milei warned that Argentines will have to endure months of pain while he works to pull the country from the economic crisis inherited from his predecessor. Inflation is already running at more than 140% annually, and prices are expected to jump between 20% and 40% in the months to come, the president said.

    The government had closed Argentina’s export registry Monday, a technical step that often foreshadows a currency devaluation or major policy change. The central bank also announced Monday the official currency market would operate with limited transactions — a restriction it said it will lift on Wednesday.

    The devaluation was long seen as inevitable. In the run-up to Milei’s inauguration, markets were signaling a currency drop of about 27% in the first week of the new government, while investment banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and local private advisory firms suggested it could weaken about 44%. Grocers had already increased prices and banks were offering sharply weaker retail exchange rates hours before the Tuesday announcement.

    Argentine authorities have for years slowed the peso’s decline in the official market through currency controls and import restrictions in an attempt to protect dwindling reserves. That hodgepodge of capital controls has spurred at least a dozen exchange rates, hampering business and restricting investment in South America’s second-largest economy. On the campaign trail, Milei pledged to scrap the currency altogether, replacing it with the US dollar.

    “We’re always worse off because our response has been to attack the consequences but not the problem,” Caputo said in his address. “What we’ve come to do is the opposite of what they always did, and that’s solve the root problem.”

    On Dec. 7, the prior administration had let the peso slip by about 5%, while simultaneously limiting the amount of greenbacks banks could hold in order to prevent them from hoarding dollars. The government had been burning reserves to keep the currency largely steady at 350 per dollar since the August primary vote, when Milei’s surprise showing sent markets into a tailspin. In parallel markets, that rate is about 1,000.

    Since being spooked by his emergence in the August primary, investors have changed tack on the firebrand libertarian, cheering on his first steps as president-elect — namely, his decision to pick Wall Street veterans for some of the main cabinet positions while distancing himself from more radical proposals including dollarizing the economy and shuttering the central bank. As he begins his four-year term, the rally will be put to the test.

    Caputo previously served as finance chief in the administration of Mauricio Macri, when he negotiated a $16.5 billion deal with holdout bondholders, allowing Argentina to return to international capital markets. Amid a currency run in 2018, Macri tapped him to take over at the central bank, but he only served for a few months before unexpectedly stepping down amid tensions with the IMF.

    Caputo has tapped longtime colleague Santiago Bausili, a Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan Chase & Co veteran, to run Argentina’s central bank.

    —With assistance from Davison Santana and Patrick Gillespie.

    (Updates with details on new crawling peg from first paragraph)

    Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

    ©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

    [ad_2]

    Source link