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  • ‘We’re headed for a family feud’: My father offered his 3 kids equal monetary gifts. My siblings took cash. I took stock. It’s soared in value — now they’re crying foul

    ‘We’re headed for a family feud’: My father offered his 3 kids equal monetary gifts. My siblings took cash. I took stock. It’s soared in value — now they’re crying foul

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    Dear Quentin,

    Several years before my father’s death, he offered me and my two siblings each an early “cash gift” from his estate in the amount of whatever the maximum non-taxable amount was at the time. He was an active investor and offered the gift in the form of the stock instead of cash. My siblings took the cash and I decided to take it in stock valued the same as the cash amount.  

    Fast forward five years: My father just passed away and my siblings bought expensive toys and luxury automobiles with their cash, while my stock is worth many times what it was when it was given to me. His will states that the three of us should share in equal parts of his estate, but my siblings are arguing that my now very valuable stock should be included as an asset to be split among the estate.

    Legally, they have no leg to stand on, but both are insistent that I’m taking money that is morally theirs. There’s no changing their mind and I’m convinced that we’re headed for a family feud. I’m not sure what I should do. Had the stock value gone to zero in that time, they wouldn’t be arguing that I should get extra to compensate for my “bad gamble.”

    The Other Brother

    Dear Other Brother,

    Them’s the breaks — in this case, the sudden screeching of car brakes.

    Your siblings could have chosen stocks over cash, but they wanted immediate gratification. That was their decision, and they are going to have to take ownership of their choice and live with it. Buying stocks are more likely to pay off if you hold on to them over the long term. You did just that. Instead of buying a Ferrari or a Tesla
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    you effectively chose to invest your gift.

    Show the same certainty now, and don’t cave to your siblings’ demands. Don’t allow them to bully you into selling.

    Investing is all about delaying your gratification — the ability to live for today and save for a more comfortable tomorrow, as opposed to having everything today and to hell with tomorrow. The gamification of stock trading with apps such as Robinhood
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    which has extended its trading hours beyond the market’s official hours, is in part about getting that dopamine hit. (However, trading after hours comes with risks — chief among them warped stock prices.)

    This dispute is about choice. If you had taken the cash, those stocks would still be part of your father’s estate, but you made the choice to take the stock. Your siblings had the same option and chose not to exercise it. Tell them, “I know it must be frustrating for you, but we all had the same opportunity. I took it. You took the cash.”

    There is only one reason they missed out — and if they look in the rearview mirror of their respective luxury cars, they will see that reason staring right back at them.

    Yocan email The Moneyist with any financial and ethical questions related to coronavirus at qfottrell@marketwatch.com, and follow Quentin Fottrell on Twitter.

    Check out the Moneyist private Facebook group, where we look for answers to life’s thorniest money issues. Readers write in to me with all sorts of dilemmas. Post your questions, tell me what you want to know more about, or weigh in on the latest Moneyist columns.

    The Moneyist regrets he cannot reply to questions individually.

    By emailing your questions, you agree to having them published anonymously on MarketWatch. By submitting your story to Dow Jones & Company, the publisher of MarketWatch, you understand and agree that we may use your story, or versions of it, in all media and platforms, including via third parties.

    More from Quentin Fottrell:

    • My girlfriend says I should tip in restaurants. I say waitstaff are just like construction and fast-food workers. Who’s right?
    • ‘He was infatuated with her’: My brother had a drinking problem and took his own life. He left $6 million to his former girlfriend who used to buy him alcohol
    • She had a will, but it was null and void’: My friend and her sister are fighting over their mother’s life-insurance policy and bank account. Who should win out?

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  • The U.S. economy is losing speed, S&P surveys show

    The U.S. economy is losing speed, S&P surveys show

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    The numbers: Business conditions at U.S. companies deteriorated again in November and pointed to a slowing economy.

    The “flash” U.S. services sector index drop to a three-month low of 46.1 this month from 47.8 in October, keeping it near the lowest level of the pandemic era. The service side of the economy employs most Americans.

    The S&P Global U.S. manufacturing sector index, meanwhile, slid to a 2 1/2-year low of 47.6 from 50.4.

    Any number below 50 reflects a contracting economy.

    Key details: New orders, a sign of future sales, fell in November at the fastest pace since early in the pandemic in 2020, S&P Global found. Exports also declined.

    The cost of supplies, a measure of inflation, eased again in a sign that intense inflationary pressures are on the wane. Companies also raised prices at the slowest rate in more than two years.

    Shortages of supplies, a big problem during the pandemic, also continued to diminish.

    These shortages were one of the biggest contributors to the U.S. and global surge in inflation. While they are fading, they remain a big problem.

    Big picture: Businesses are still expanding by some measures, but they are also preparing for slower economic growth.

    Rising interest rates orchestrated by the Federal Reserve have dampened sales in the U.S. while a strong dollar has hurt exports by making American products more expensive.

    Looking ahead: “Inflationary pressures should continue to cool in the months ahead, potentially markedly, but the economy meanwhile continues to head deeper into a likely recession,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

    Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
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    and S&P 500
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    rose in Wednesday trades.

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  • ‘There are plenty of storm clouds on the horizon’: 5 things not to buy on Black Friday

    ‘There are plenty of storm clouds on the horizon’: 5 things not to buy on Black Friday

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    It’s a year for shopping prudently.

    Americans will spend between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion this holiday season, according to projections from the National Retail Federation. That’s up from last year when holiday sales hit a record $889.3 billion, the trade association said.

    However, people are not willing to go as crazy this Black Friday compared to previous years: that 6% to 8% year-over-year growth expectation is slower than the 13.5% annual increase in holiday season spending in 2021 when consumers had pandemic-era government benefits to spend.

    Once again, millions of people will also be shopping from the comfort of their home and avoiding the Black Friday crowds. Online and other non-store sales are predicted to rise 10% to 12% (to between $262.8 billion and $267.6 billion).

    People have reason to be concerned about their spending.

    “The economy is probably doing better than it feels right now, but that’s not true for everyone of course,” said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com. “There are plenty of storm clouds on the horizon.” He cited rising interest rates, 40-year high inflation and tech layoffs. 

    People have reason to be concerned about their spending. The personal saving rate — meaning personal saving as a percentage of disposable income, or the share of income left after paying taxes and spending money — fell to 3.3% in the third quarter from 3.4% in the prior quarter, the government said last month. 

    Despite a strong labor market and unemployment hovering at 3.7% in October, Rossman said, “it still seems like a recession is likely in 2023, although the best guess is that it will be a mild one.”

    So what should you not buy this Black Friday? Quite a lot, if you don’t believe in living large. Here are 5 things to think about avoiding:

    — Quentin Fottrell

    Tech accessories

    For tech accessories — like earbuds and headphones — waiting until December may be a better way to score better deals, added Ryan McGonagill, director, industry research at Savings.com, another site that aggregates discounts.

    The most popular electronic products like Apple AAPL iPads, MacBooks and iPhones have scant Black Friday deals. “For a limited time, get an Apple Gift Card to use on a later purchase when you buy an eligible iPhone, Apple Watch, Mac, AirPods, and more,” according to Apple’s Black Friday offer.

    Computer makers and retailers, however, are coming off the work-from-home boom and may have inventory they need to thin before year’s end. Holiday discounts on computers, at least through October, were at 10% off the base price, according to analysis from Adobe
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    The software and analytics provider said computer discounts could go much steeper, up to 32% off the base price before the end of the year. Cyber Monday could be the best day for bargains on computers, Adobe said, but computer deals may stick around for the rest of 2022.

    Pay attention to early deals, if you desperately need a new laptop. “Many retailers offer the same pricing on Black Friday and Cyber Monday,” said Kristin McGrath, editor at RetailMeNot.com, a site that promotes deals. “So start looking on Black Friday and use Cyber Monday as a second chance to snag what you missed.”

    — Andrew Keshner

    Seasonal items

    Winter wear is usually not going to be on sale before Christmas, so it’s best to shop for your puffy jackets and snow boots in the New Year, if you can. The same goes for white linen, tools and holiday decorations, said Charles Lindsey, associate professor in the Marketing School of Management at the University at Buffalo.

    Most stores put their coats, hats, scarves and flannel pajamas on sale — with discounts on big-name brands of 50% or more in January — to make room for their spring collections. Similarly, buy summer clothes in the fall and winter. 

    “The best time to buy holiday decor is immediately after said holidays,” according to DealNews, a site offering shopping advice. “After Christmas sales are generally your best bet for snagging deeply discounted ornaments, lights, and inflatables in order to be well prepared for next year.” 

    Fashion-conscious shoppers inclined to snap up discounted items may want to practice patience on Black Friday. Apparel may have even deeper discounts after the holidays. If you feel compelled to buy something new to wear to the office party, invest in quality pieces. Fast fashion has a cost: It has contributed to a waste crisis, in part because such items are not meant to last very long in your closet.

    But that does not mean you should not keep your eyes peeled for some seasonal goods on Black Friday. Walmart
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    for instance, is pushing out the boat early with some discounts on toys, including hoverboards, bicycles, remote-control cars, and karaoke machines. Similarly, Kohl’s
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    has discounts on a range of doll’s houses.

    — Quentin Fottrell and Emma Ockerman

    Appliances and white goods

    There might be tempting Black Friday deals on appliances, mattresses and furniture. Discounts on appliances may reach up to an 18% from the base price, Adobe said. Still, “you’re going to get another shot at them during New Year’s Eve sales and again during Presidents Day sales in February,” McGrath said.

    If Black Friday is “too chaotic …you’ll have plenty of opportunities to save,” she added. Department stores usually run very attractive discounts on houseware in the days following Christmas. “Stores know they’ll be getting a lot of traffic with so many people returning gifts — and hope to convince shoppers to make an impulse self-gifting purchase or two,” McGrath said.

    If you can’t wait, Costco
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    is already rolling out deals on white goods and appliances, including $70 off a Sonos
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    WiFi speaker. However, Consumer Reports cautions consumers against falling for big deals without checking out the reliability of the brand first, as you could end up paying more in repairs down the road. 

    You might be tempted by offers and rebates on matching kitchen suites — typically a refrigerator, range, dishwasher, and microwave — from the same maker,” Consumer Reports said. “But price is only part of the equation when you’re purchasing appliances. Reliability is key, and it can vary within a brand’s offerings.”

    — Andrew Keshner

    Fitness equipment

    One of the best times to buy exercise equipment is around the New Year, when people are making resolutions to improve their health, said Regina Conway, who researches sales and promotions for Slickdeals, a site that tracks retail discounts.

    When you make your purchase, think twice before buying equipment that runs on proprietary technology, like Peloton
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    or Lululemon’s
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    Mirror exercise products, mainly because the at-home fitness boom faces an uncertain future post-pandemic, Conway noted.

    However, this Black Friday is a little different than previous years, and there are some deals in categories that traditionally don’t have good Black Friday discounts, including exercise equipment. “This year we’re seeing strong Black Friday deals from industry stalwarts like NordicTrack,” Conway said.

    Peloton Interactive, which is facing a challenging time since people are no longer stuck at home due to the pandemic, is currently offering $600 off this fitness bike package. However, consumers will still have to fork over $2,195 for the machine and exercise regime.

    “We think consumers are likely to continue to prefer out-of-home experiences in the near-term and believe Peloton is still working through pandemic pull-forward,” Cowen & Co. analyst John Blackledge wrote in an analyst note on Tuesday, citing “limited visibility” on Peloton’s fiscal 2023 performance.

    — Leslie Albrecht and Quentin Fottrell

    Big-ticket items like TVs 

    Does Amazon
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    founder Jeff Bezos have a point about the dangers of splurging this year? In something of a Black Friday surprise, Bezos offered some shocking spending tips as Americans gear up for the holiday shopping season — amid four-decade-high inflation. Or, to be more accurate, he offered tips on what not to spend your money on.

    ‘If you’re an individual and you’re thinking about buying a large-screen TV, maybe slow that down, keep that cash, see what happens. Same thing with a refrigerator, a new car, whatever. Just take some risk off the table,” Bezos said in a recent interview on CNN
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    The remarks drew a significant amount of scorn on social media, with some critics advising people to avoid shopping on Amazon too.

    About those TVs: “They’re normally not going to be a high-end TV brand,” Lindsey said. “It will be a lower to mid-tier brand. Companies utilize these TVS as doorbusters to get people in the store and people clicking on their website. You’re probably better off shopping around the Superbowl in late January.”

    Rossman said consumers are becoming more judicious about their Black Friday splurging. “People seem to be pulling back on some big-ticket purchases,” he told MarketWatch. “For example, sellers of appliances, electronics and furniture all posted disappointing results in the most recent retail sales report.”

    “Yet discretionary sectors such as travel and dining are seeing sharp increases in spending,” he added. “I think the main explanation is pent-up demand. People are prioritizing experiences over things right now, largely due to the pandemic. There was also a pull-forward in demand for many physical goods the past couple of years as many out-of-home activities were curtailed.”

    — Quentin Fottrell

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  • COP27 wins and losses: U.S. on the hook to pay for its pollution; natural gas gets nod as transition fuel

    COP27 wins and losses: U.S. on the hook to pay for its pollution; natural gas gets nod as transition fuel

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    For the first time ever, rich nations, including a top-polluting U.S., will pay for the climate-change damage inflicted upon poorer nations.

    These smaller economies are often the source of the fossil fuels
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    minerals
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    and other raw materials behind the developed world’s modern conveniences and technologicial advancement, including many practices responsible for the Earth-warming emisisons. And yet the developing world shoulders the worst of the droughts, deadly heat, ruined crops and eroding coastlines that take lives and eat into economic growth.

    The deal, called “loss and damage” in summit shorthand, was struck as the U.N.’s Conference of Parties, or COP27, gaveled to a close near dawn Sunday in Egypt. Official talks ended Friday, but negotiations extended into the weekend.

    Read: Historic compensation fund approved at U.N. climate talks

    It was a big win for poorer nations which have long sought money — sometimes viewed as reparations — because they are often the victims of climate-worsened floods, famines and storms despite contributing little directly to the pollution that heats up the globe. It took last-minute, pre-summit negotiations to even get the topic on the official agenda.

    “Three long decades and we have finally delivered climate justice,” said Seve Paeniu, the finance minister of island nation Tuvalu, according to the Associated Press. “We have finally responded to the call of hundreds of millions of people across the world to help them address loss and damage.”

    ‘Three long decades and we have finally delivered climate justice.’


    — Seve Paeniu, finance minister for Tuvalu

    Pakistan’s environment minister, Sherry Rehman, said the establishment of the fund “is not about dispensing charity.” Pakistan, hit by devastating drought and more, dominated climate-change headlines this year.

    “It is clearly a down payment on the longer investment in our joint futures,” she said, speaking for a coalition of the world’s poorest nations.

    According to many conference participants, the U.S. was a late-stage roadblock to establishing this official payout language, though it signed off in the end. U.S. participation was also impacted once chief climate negotiator John Kerry tested positive for COVID-19, although he continued to work from his hotel.

    How does COP27 ‘loss and damage’ work? And where’s China?

    According to the agreement, the fund would initially draw on contributions from developed countries and other private and public sources such as international financial institutions, including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

    While major emerging economies such as China wouldn’t automatically have to contribute, that option remains on the table. This is a key demand by the European Union and the U.S., who argue that China and other large polluters currently classified as “developing” countries have the financial clout and responsibility to pay their way.

    The fund would be largely aimed at the most vulnerable nations, though there would be room for middle-income countries that are severely battered by climate disasters to get aid.

    Getting serious about methane

    Attention on methane, a more-potent but shorter-lasting greenhouse gas than carbon, was considered a major win at the summit. Some 150 countries have now signed on to the voluntary Global Methane Pledge, an official effort to cap the release of the GHG whose reduction presents perhaps the easiest way to reduce the global warming.

    Read more: Natural gas-focused methane pact expands at climate summit, minus China

    With the pledge, countries representing 45% of global methane emissions have vowed to reduce their emissions by 30% by 2030. If methane-reduction pledges are met, the result would be equivalent to eliminating the GHG emissions from all of the world’s cars, trucks, buses and all two- and three-wheeled vehicles, according to the International Energy Agency.

    China, the world’s largest polluter by some measures, has not signed the deadline-based pledge, but has agreed to reduce methane emissions.

    Still largely voluntary

    COP27 talks wrapped without concrete progress on the contentious issue of shifting an overall 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature limit from a voluntary marker to an established requirement of nations. Most voluntary pacts among nations and private entities, including a vow by Amazon.com
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    Ford Motor
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    Apple
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    and others signing on to a “First Movers” pledge, loosly use the 1.5-degree limit set in 2015 when talks took place in Paris.

    Private banks, insurers and institutional investors representing $130 trillion said they would align their investments with the goal of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, toward a pledge to net-zero emissions economy-wide by 2050. Advocacy groups cheer the pledge and its expanding roster but are also keeping up pressure on the signatories to speed up progress toward this goal and to stop undermining the pledge with fossil-fuel investment.

    Read: Here’s where the big U.S. banks stand up and fall down on climate change

    The Egypt pact was also void of firmer language on emissions cutting and the desire by some officials to target all fossil fuels
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    for a phase-down.

    Natural gas, which is relatively cheaper to produce than other fossil fuels, has been the major alternative to more-polluting coal in electricity generation. Still, it has its own emissions risk.

    In the U.S., for example, electricity is the most common energy source used for cooking — electricity often powered by gas. Still, about 38% of U.S. households use natural gas directly for cooking, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

    Natural gas providers also own an established pipeline infrastructure that may serve alternative energy, and is pushed by the industry as a viable alternative alongside solar, wind
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      and other means. The industry also promotes its efforts to cap methane leaks.

    Related: World’s richest nations stick to 1.5-degree climate pledge despite energy crunch

    ‘It is more than frustrating to see overdue steps on mitigation and the phase-out of fossil energies being stonewalled by a number of large emitters and oil producers.’


    — Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock

    With fossil fuels in their sight, the European Union and other nations fought back at what they considered backsliding in the Egyptian presidency’s overarching cover agreement and threatened to scuttle the rest of the process, while advancing their own draft. The package was revised again, removing most of the elements Europeans had objected to but adding none of the heightened ambition they were hoping for, the AP said.

    Egypt has played a unique role as host, representative of Africa, which sits at the front lines of those hurt by climate change and yet, remaining loyal to its own fossil-fuel ambitions and those of OPEC nations.

    Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock voiced frustration.

    “It is more than frustrating to see overdue steps on mitigation and the phase-out of fossil energies being stonewalled by a number of large emitters and oil producers
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    ” she said.

    The agreement includes a veiled reference to the benefits of natural gas as low- emission energy, despite many nations calling for a phase down of natural gas, which does contribute to climate change.

    Fossil-fuel industry’s presence

    At least 636 representatives of the fossil fuel industry registered to attend the summit, a 25% increase over the industry’s presence last year, according to an analysis released by three advocacy groups.

    More fossil fuel lobbyists are on the roster than any single national delegation, besides the UAE who has registered 1,070 delegates compared to 176 last yearaccording to a report from Corporate Accountability, Corporate Europe Observatory (CEO) and Global Witness (GW).

     Frances Colón, senior director for International Climate Policy at the Center for American Progress, found plenty of fault with this round of talks.

    “The final text reflects the outsized and corrupting presence of fossil fuel and big agricultural lobbyists at COP27, compounded by a lack of ambition from key, high-emitting countries,” she said, in a statement. “The agreement makes only a passing reference to the 1.5-degree Celsius warming goal and does not include any new language on phasing down or phasing out all fossil fuels
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    — the only way to reach emissions reduction goals and secure a livable future.”

    Colón also worried that the official statement did not adequately advance efforts. World leaders failed to reference the twin, interlocking crises of nature loss and climate change, and declined to link COP27 to next month’s U.N. biodiversity summit in Montreal.

    ‘The agreement makes only a passing reference to the 1.5-degree Celsius warming goal and does not include any new language on phasing down or phasing out all fossil fuels — the only way to reach emissions reduction goals and secure a livable future.’


    — Frances Colón of the Center for American Progress

    While the new agreement doesn’t ratchet up calls for reducing emissions, it does retain language to keep alive the voluntary global goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). The Egyptian presidency kept offering proposals that harkened back to 2015 Paris language which also mentioned a looser goal of 2 degrees.

    This year’s pact also neglected to toughen the main sticking point from the previous COP, in Glasgow last year. At that time, China and India united to dig in unless coal language was softened. Nations this year did not expand on last year’s call to phase down global use of “unabated coal” even though India and other countries pushed to include oil and natural gas in language from Glasgow.

    “We joined with many parties to propose a number of measures that would have contributed to this emissions peaking before 2025, as the science tells us is necessary. Not in this text,” the United Kingdom’s Alok Sharma said.

    Climate campaigners are concerned that pushing for strong action to end fossil fuel use will be even harder at next year’s meeting, which will be hosted in Dubai, located in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates.

    The Associated Press contributed.

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  • Amazon CEO says more layoffs are coming in 2023

    Amazon CEO says more layoffs are coming in 2023

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    Amazon.com Inc. plans more layoffs, but employees will have to wait until 2023 to see if their jobs are affected.

    Chief Executive Andy Jassy said Thursday that while Amazon
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    already confirmed that it was eliminating jobs in its devices and books businesses, an unknown number of layoffs impacting other teams are still to follow.

    See more: Amazon confirms layoffs, becoming latest tech powerhouse to slash roles

    “Our annual planning process extends into the new year, which means there will be more role reductions as leaders continue to make adjustments,” he said in a blog post on the company’s corporate site. “Those decisions will be shared with impacted employees and organizations early in 2023.”

    While Jassy doesn’t know “exactly how many other roles will be impacted,” he does know “that there will be reductions in our Stores and PXT organizations.” The company already announced a “voluntary reduction offer for some employees” working in PXT, or People Experience and Technology Solutions.

    The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this week that Amazon could end up slashing 10,000 jobs.

    Jassy took over as Amazon’s CEO in July 2021 and said Thursday that “without a doubt,” the move to cut staff is “the most difficult decision we’ve made” since he’s been in the role.

    “It’s not lost on me or any of the leaders who make these decisions that these aren’t just roles we’re eliminating, but rather, people with emotions, ambitions and responsibilities whose lives will be impacted,” Jassy said.

    He added that Amazon “has weathered uncertainty and difficult economies in the past, and we will continue to do so.” Jassy emphasized that Amazon will continue to plug away on more established areas like stores, advertising and cloud computing, as well as newer initiatives like Prime Video, the Alexa voice assistant and healthcare.

    Amazon joins other technology companies including Meta Platforms Inc.
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    ,
    Snap Inc.
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    ,
    Shopify Inc.
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    and Twitter in recently eliminating jobs. An activist investor earlier this week urged Alphabet Inc.
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    to cut positions as well.

    See more: Here are the companies in the layoffs spotlight

    Shares of Amazon were up 0.3% in after-hours trading Thursday after declining 2.3% in the regular session.

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  • Black Friday surprise: Jeff Bezos tells people NOT to buy cars, refrigerators and other big-ticket items. Critics call him out.

    Black Friday surprise: Jeff Bezos tells people NOT to buy cars, refrigerators and other big-ticket items. Critics call him out.

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    Billionaire Jeff Bezos, who founded the e-retail behemoth Amazon, has some spending tips as Americans gear up for a holiday shopping season — amid four-decade high inflation and recession worries.

    Here’s what he said:

    ‘If you’re an individual and you’re thinking about buying a large-screen TV, maybe slow that down, keep that cash, see what happens. Same thing with a refrigerator, a new car, whatever. Just take some risk off the table.’

    Bezos made the comments in a CNN
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    interview that aired this week, the same interview where he pledged to give away most of his fortune in his lifetime.

    Why did Bezos offer the tip for consumers and small business to go easy on big-ticket items? He gave one big reason.

    “If we’re not in a recession right now, we’re likely to be in one very soon,” he said in the interview, picking up on his cautionary tweet last month that “the probabilities in this economy tell you to batten down the hatches.”

    Bezos is currently executive chair at Amazon
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    transitioning to the role last year as Andy Jassy took the reins as CEO.

    Later this week, Amazon confirmed it was laying off some of its staff in its device and services business — joining a growing list of tech companies, including Facebook parent Meta
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    — that is laying people off. Amazon’s job cuts could number around 10,000, according to the Wall Street Journal.

    Critics have taken aim at these words of thrift coming from a man — now worth approximately $120 billion — who built Amazon into the online shopping bonanza.

    To be sure, Bezos is not alone is his worries about a potential recession as the Federal Reserve and other central banks fight higher costs by hiking interest rates.

    But his advice prompted some guffaws on social media. In a nutshell, critics say these are words of thrift coming from a man — now worth approximately $120 billion — who built Amazon into the online shopping bonanza that lets consumers seamlessly spend money.

    As Joshua Becker, a proponent of minimalism wrote on Twitter: “I didn’t hear him mention refraining from Amazon’s Prime Day deals or Black Friday offers, but I recommend adding those items to your list as well.”

    Regardless of how anyone feels about hearing spending advice, particularly from one of the world’s richest people, there are some things to consider as events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday approach.

    For one thing, maybe there are discretionary expenses where people can cut back. Many Americans are still spending briskly, as Walmart
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    third-quarter earnings and October’s retail-sales numbers recently affirmed. Holiday-spending projections paint the same picture.

    Americans will spend between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion on holiday-season sales this year, according to projections from the National Retail Federation. Last year’s holiday sales totaled $889.3 billion, the trade association said.

    During the third quarter, Americans’ credit-card balances climbed to $930 billion, the biggest annual increase in more than 20 years, according to the National Retail Federation.

    But Americans are planning for the holidays while credit-card balances are increasing — likely because credit cards are helping them keep up with rising costs.

    During the third quarter, Americans’ credit-card balances climbed to $930 billion, the biggest annual increase in more than 20 years, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York data.

    While balances grow, so do credit-card interest rates. The annual percentage rate (APR) on new credit-card offers averaged 19.14% in mid-November, according to Bankrate.com. That beats the old record on APRs for new cards, set at 19% three decades ago.

    The holiday shopping season is typically when Americans accumulate credit-card debt, pay the debts in the early part of the coming year and repeat the holiday-season debt the following year.

    This year, the stakes could be higher if high credit-card bills arrive and a recession-induced job loss follows.

    “It’s not the time to overspend and have a problem with paying your bills later,” Michele Raneri, vice president of financial services research and consulting at TransUnion
    TRU,
    -4.94%
    ,
    one of the country’s three major credit bureaus, previously told MarketWatch. “We know the economy is sending mixed messages.”

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  • Nancy Pelosi steps down as leader of House Democrats after two decades

    Nancy Pelosi steps down as leader of House Democrats after two decades

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    Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Thursday said she will no longer serve as the top Democrat in the U.S. House of Representatives, with her departure coming after her party lost its majority in the chamber in this month’s midterm elections.

    “With great confidence in our caucus, I will not seek re-election to Democratic leadership in the next Congress,” Pelosi said during a speech on the House floor.

    “For me, the hour’s come for a new generation to lead the Democratic caucus that I so deeply respect, and I’m grateful that so many are ready and willing to shoulder this awesome responsibility.”

    She said she will continue to represent her district in the House.

    Some Democratic lawmakers have long called for new leadership in the House, wanting the California Democrat and her deputies to make way for the next generation. Pelosi, 82, has led the chamber’s Democrats in both the majority and minority for about two decades — since January 2003.

    The No. 2 House Democrat, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer of Maryland, who is 83, announced Thursday that he also will not seek a leadership position next year. 

    New York Democratic Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, 52, is seen as a frontrunner to become House minority leader.  

    Pelosi is the country’s first female speaker and has been in Congress for about 35 years. She had made a deal with House members to serve for two more terms as leader — or four years — after Democrats scored a majority in that chamber of Congress in the 2018 midterms.

    Pelosi said earlier this month that family issues would be key in her decision about her future plans. Her husband, Paul Pelosi, was attacked by an intruder in their San Francisco home last month and faces a long recovery from his injuries.

    While Republican hopes for a strong red wave on Election Day — which was Nov. 8 — have been dashed, the Associated Press projected Wednesday that the GOP had won enough House seats to control that chamber of Congress.

    The GOP’s slim majority is expected to cause trouble for the party’s leaders in the House. Meanwhile, the battle for control of the U.S. Senate went to the Democrats late Saturday. 

    The major laws passed during Pelosi’s time as speaker have included 2010’s Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare and which overhauled the U.S. healthcare
    XLV,
    +0.12%

    system; 2010’s Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act that targeted banks
    KBE,
    -1.09%

    ; and 2021’s Infrastructure
    PAVE,
    -0.92%

    Investment and Jobs Act.

    U.S. stocks
    SPX,
    -0.23%

    DJIA,
    +0.09%

    lost ground Thursday as a key Federal Reserve official suggested interest rates may need to rise much further in order to subdue inflation.

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  • Republicans clinch slim majority in House, likely signaling gridlock ahead

    Republicans clinch slim majority in House, likely signaling gridlock ahead

    [ad_1]

    Republicans will take over the U.S. House of Representatives two years into President Joe Biden’s term, though their narrow majority looks set to cause headaches for GOP leaders.

    Republican hopes for a strong red wave have been dashed, but the Associated Press said Wednesday that the party won enough House seats — 218 — to control that chamber of Congress, as results from the midterm elections continue to be tabulated.

    The battle for the U.S. Senate went to the Democrats late Saturday. Democrats will retain their hold on the Senate after winning a key race in Nevada, giving Biden’s party control of at least one chamber of Congress for the next two years.

    “Republicans have officially flipped the People’s House!” Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., the front-runner to become House Speaker, tweeted late Wednesday. “Americans are ready for a new direction, and House Republicans are ready to deliver.”

    While Republicans will control just one chamber of Congress, they now are expected to deliver a check on Biden’s policy priorities, such as by potentially using a debt-ceiling showdown to force spending cuts. 

    In a statement late Wednesday, President Joe Biden called for bipartisanship: “The American people want us to get things done for them. They want us to focus on the issues that matter to them and on making their lives better. And I will work with anyone — Republican or Democrat — willing to work with me to deliver results.”

    Related: Democrats weigh end run around Republicans to raise debt limit

    And see: Republican lawmakers likely to target ‘woke capitalism’ after the midterm elections, analysts say

    The Republican House majority has yet to be finalized but could be the narrowest of the 21st century, even less than in 2001, when the GOP had a nine-seat majority with two independents.

    Washington is likely to face new periods of gridlock, with Democrats also keeping their hold on the White House since Biden still has two years to serve before the 2024 presidential election. That’s after Democrats in the past two years used party-line votes to push through measures such as March 2021’s stimulus law and this past summer’s package targeting healthcare, climate change and taxes.

    The House switching to red from blue fits the historical pattern in which a first-term president’s party tends to lose congressional ground in the midterms. The GOP highlighted raging inflation in its effort to win over American voters.

    The House seats to flip to the GOP included one held by Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria of Virginia, who lost to Republican challenger Jen Kiggans, as well as two seats in Florida. But Democrats also flipped House seats and won re-elections in bellwether races, with Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Indiana Rep. Frank Mrvan notching victories.

    Read more: Here are the congressional seats that have flipped in the midterm elections

    Democrats have had a grip on the House since the 2018 midterms. They’ve run the Senate for two years, controlling the 50-50 chamber only because Vice President Kamala Harris can cast tiebreaking votes.

    Among the competitive Senate races, Democrats kept their hold on seats in Arizona, Colorado and New Hampshire, while scoring a pick-up in Pennsylvania. Republicans maintained their control of seats in North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin.

    Georgia’s Senate contest is headed to a Dec. 6 runoff, but its outcome has become less significant.

    Related: Ohio’s J.D. Vance tells MarketWatch he wants to end tax loopholes for tech companies and ban congressional stock trading

    Betting markets since late on Election Day have been seeing Democrats staying in charge of the Senate and Republicans winning the House. Ahead of last Tuesday’s voting, betting markets had signaled confidence in GOP prospects for taking over both the Senate and House.

    Analysts had said voters last month appeared increasingly focused on Republican issues such as high prices for gasoline
    RB00,
    -0.35%

    and other essentials, at the expense of Democrats’ agenda items such as climate change and abortion rights.

    But exit polls suggested that Republicans performed worse than expected because many Democrats and independents voted partly to show their disapproval of former President Donald Trump — and those voters were energized by the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision that overturned Roe.

    See: Anti-Trump vote and Dobbs abortion ruling boost Democrats in 2022 election

    The former president announced his 2024 White House run late Tuesday. Earlier Tuesday, House Republicans chose Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California, the current minority leader, as their candidate for speaker. Thirty-one Republicans voted against McCarthy, signaling that he must shore up his support before the vote on the speakership takes place in January.  It’s an early sign of how Republicans’ narrow majority is creating turbulence for the House GOP leadership. 

    Now read: What a Republican-controlled House might mean for tech: Plenty of hand-wringing over Section 230 liability shield

    And see: DeSantis viewed as frontrunner for Republican 2024 presidential nomination after Trump’s candidates flop in midterm elections

    Plus: Senate Republicans pick Mitch McConnell as their leader, as Rick Scott’s challenge flops

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  • Dow ekes out gain, stocks end higher on signs of easing inflation, but Russia’s war in Ukraine intensifies

    Dow ekes out gain, stocks end higher on signs of easing inflation, but Russia’s war in Ukraine intensifies

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    U.S. stocks closed higher Tuesday, but off the session’s best levels, after more data suggested inflation may be slowing and mega-retailer Walmart offered a rosier annual forecast.

    The Dow turned negative earlier in the session after the Associated Press reported that Russian missiles crossed into Poland and killed two people, ratcheting up geopolitical tension given Poland is a NATO country.

    How stocks traded
    • S&P 500 index
      SPX,
      +0.87%

      rose 34.48 points, or 0.9%, to close at 3,991.73.

    • Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA,
      +0.17%

      climbed 56.22 points, or 0.2%, ending at 33,592.92, after touching a nearly three-month high of 33,987.06 earlier.

    • Nasdaq Composite
      COMP,
      +1.45%

      climbed 162.19 points, or 1.5%, closing at 11,358.41.

    On Monday, U.S. stocks finished near session lows after early gains evaporated. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 211 points, or 0.6%, while the S&P 500 declined 36 points, or 0.9% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 226 points, or 2%.

    What drove markets

    U.S. stocks closed higher Tuesday, after another batch of inflation data showed that whole prices rises were slowing in October for the second straight month.

    The Dow’s brief negative turn came after reports that Russian military bombarded Ukraine Tuesday. In the attack, missiles reportedly crossed into Poland, a member of NATO, the Associated Press said, citing a senior U.S. intelligence official.

    “Geopolitical concerns obviously are never positive for the market,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities.

    On Tuesday, oil futures settled higher. West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery rose to $1.05, or 1.2%, reaching $86.92 a barrel.

    While markets had started to price in the toll of Russian’s nearly nine-month invasion of Ukraine, it had not priced in an potential escalation of the war, said Kent Engelke, chief economic strategist at Capitol Securities Management.

    “Talk about geopolitical angst returning,” Engelke said, later adding, “If there were really missiles shot to Poland and that was really not an accident, wow, that is really  increasing the scope of the war.”

    A U.S. National Security Council spokesperson said the agency was aware of the news reports out of Poland, but that it cannot confirm the reports or any details at this time.

    While international worries clouded the session, there was also encouraging domestic news.

    The U.S. producer-price index climbed 8% over the 12 months through October, the Labor Department said Tuesday, easing from September’s revised 8.4% increase. Last week, stocks surged after the October consumer-price index rose more slowly than expected.

    See: Wholesale prices rise slowly again and point to softening U.S. inflation

    Tuesday’s PPI report helped support the notion that inflation has peaked, at least for now.

    “Today, it’s really about the PPI and the market reaction to it,” Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers
    IBKR,
    +3.45%
    ,
    said in a Tuesday morning interview before the reports of missiles crossing into Poland.

    Markets ripped higher last Thursday after October’s consumer-price index showed signs of easing. The same dynamic was playing out Tuesday, but the response now has been “a bit more muted” because it’s an iteration on inflation data that investors already had been starting to see, Sosnick said.

    So, is the economy really at peak inflation? It’s too early to say for sure, according to Sosnick. Still, the PPI numbers, paired with last week’s CPI reading “does add evidence to that narrative,” he added.

    Walmart’s third quarter earnings also were buoying markets, Sosnick said. The massive retailer’s beat on earnings offers a glimpse at the minds and wallets of many American consumers. For anyone who worries about consumers “getting highly defensive” and not spending, Walmart’s numbers are “counter evidence.”

    In other news, the first face-to-face meeting between President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping helped support stocks listed in China and Hong Kong, as some of the tensions between the world’s two largest economies were seen to be easing.

    The upbeat tone from Asia, which included Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company
    TSM,
    +10.52%

    jumping 7.7% on news Warren Buffett had bought a $5 billion stake, underpinned European bourses, which closed higher for a fourth session in a row.

    Read also: Warren Buffett’s chip-stock purchase is a classic example of why you want to be ‘greedy only when others are fearful’

    Analysts increasingly expect stocks to enjoy a positive end to the year. “The near-term picture still looks positive for U.S. benchmark indices and while momentum has reached intra-day overbought levels, this doesn’t imply a selloff has to happen right away,” said Mark Newton, head of technical strategy at Fundstrat.

    Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker said Tuesday that he favored a 50 basis-point hike to the Fed’s benchmark rate in December. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said more rate hikes will be needed, even through there have been “glimmers of hope” on inflation.

    Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Michael Barr said Tuesday that the U.S. economy is likely to slow in coming months, and more workers will lose their jobs, in Senate testimony. The Fed is working with regulators to assess risks tied to cryptocurrency markets, following the collapse of FTX and its associated companies.

    In other U.S. economic data, the New York Empire State manufacturing index for November showed a gauge of manufacturing activity in the state rose 13.6 points to 4.5 this month.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.774%

    was down 6.7 basis points at 3.798%. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

    Companies in focus
    • Walmart
      WMT,
      +6.54%

      shares jumped after the giant retailer swung to a net third-quarter loss, due to $3.3 billion in charges related to opioid legal settlements, but reported adjusted profit, revenue and same-store sales that were well above expectations and a full-year outlook that was above forecasts. Walmart shares opened Tuesday at $145.61 and closed at $147.48, or 6.57% higher.

    • Home Depot
      HD,
      +1.63%

      rose after the home improvement retailer reported fiscal third-quarter earnings that beat expectations, citing strength in project-related categories, but kept its full-year outlook intact. Home Depot shares opened Tuesday at $304.06 and closed at $311.99.

    • Chinese-listed technology traded sharply higher on Tuesday, including U.S.-traded ADRs for Alibaba Group Holding
      BABA,
      +11.17%
      ,
      Baidu Inc.
      BIDU,
      +9.02%

      and JD.com Inc.
      JD,
      +7.14%

      The KraneShares CSI China Internet exchange-traded fund
      KWEB,
      +9.56%

      also traded substantially higher.

    Jamie Chisholm contributed reporting to this article

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  • Alibaba, Tencent, lead Hong Kong tech stocks higher after upbeat China online retail sales data

    Alibaba, Tencent, lead Hong Kong tech stocks higher after upbeat China online retail sales data

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    Shares of Chinese internet giants jumped in Hong Kong, after official data showed better-than-expected October retail sales in the world’s second-largest economy.

    Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.
    BABA,
    +0.79%

    9988,
    +10.63%

    jumped 9.8%, Kuaishou Technology
    1024,
    +10.71%

    surged 8.7%, Tencent Holdings Ltd.
    700,
    +10.28%

    rose 8.0% and Meituan
    3690,
    +5.88%

    was up 5.8%. The Hang Seng Tech Index
    HSXTCHINDXXX,
    +7.08%

    has gained as much as 7.7% and was last up 6.1%

    The sector’s sharp upturn came after China’s National Bureau of Statistics said online retail sales of physical goods rose 7.2% in the first 10 months of the year. The number, closely watched by investors as an indicator of the country’s consumption trends, outpaced a 6.1% rise in the January-to-September period.

    Jefferies analysts estimate that online retail sales grew more than 15% in October, accelerating from the three consecutive months of below-10% growth seen since July.

    Write to Yifan Wang at yifan.wang@wsj.com

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  • Why the Bear Market Isn’t Over

    Why the Bear Market Isn’t Over

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    Investors finally got the inflation reading they were looking for, and are likely to get a split government for the next two years. That combination propelled stocks to their best weekly showing since June. On Friday, the


    S&P 500


    even briefly crossed the 4,000 threshold, a level it hadn’t breached in two months.

    The S&P ended the week 5.9% higher, closing just below 4,000. The


    Dow Jones Industrial Average


    rose 4.1%, and the


    Nasdaq Composite


    jumped 8.1%. It was the best weekly showing for the Nasdaq since March, and it came during a week when tech news seemed largely negative. Facebook parent


    Meta Platforms


    (ticker: META) announced that it will cut 11,000 jobs, the latest in a wave of Silicon Valley layoffs. The best thing Facebook can say for itself now is that it isn’t Twitter.

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  • Investors may be whistling past the graveyard of a recession with latest rally in stocks

    Investors may be whistling past the graveyard of a recession with latest rally in stocks

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    Investors feeling giddy about last week’s sharp rally for stocks might want to give a listen to Tom Waits’ song, “Whistlin’ Past the Graveyard” from 1978, to sober up for the dangers that still lurk ahead.

    The surge in stocks catapulted the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +0.92%

    almost back to the 4,000 mark on Friday, also lifting it to the biggest weekly gain in roughly five months, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Investors showed courage on signs of a slight slowing of inflation, but the fortitude also comes as a drearier backdrop for investors has been unfolding in plain sight. Massive layoffs at big technology companies, the dramatic implosion of crypto-exchange FTX, and the day-to-day pain of high inflation and skyrocketing borrowing on businesses and households are all taking a toll.

    “We are not convinced this is the beginning of a new bull market,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CRFA Research. “We believe that we are headed for recession. That has not been factored into earnings estimates and, therefore, share prices.”

    Stovall also said the stock market has yet to see the “traditional shakeout of confidence capitulation that we typically see that marks the end of the bear markets.”

    From Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    +1.03%

    to Lyft Inc.
    LYFT,
    +12.59%

    to Netflix Inc.
    NFLX,
    +5.51%

    there is a wave of major technology companies resorting to layoffs this fall, a threat that could sweep other sectors of the economy if a recession materializes.

    Yet, information technology stocks in the S&P 500 jumped 10% for the week, while financials, which stand to benefit from higher interest rates, rose 5.7%, according to FactSet.

    That could reflect optimism about the odds of a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes in the months ahead, after sharp rate rises helped to undermine valuations and pull tech stocks dramatically lower in the past year. However, Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Fed, and other Fed officials since the October inflation reading on Thursday have reiterated the need to keep rates high, until 7.7% annual rate finds a clearer path to the central bank’s 2% target.

    The stock-market rally also might suggest that investors view continued mayhem in the crypto sector as contained, despite bitcoin
    BTCUSD,
    +0.42%

    trading near its lowest level in two years and the shocking collapse in recent days of FTX, once the world’s third-largest cryptocurrency exchange.

    Read: FTX’s fall: ‘This is the worst’ moment for crypto this year. Here’s what you should know.

    What happens to stocks in recessions

    Blows to the American economy rarely have been good for stocks. A look at seven past recessions, starting in 1969, shows declines for the S&P 500 as more typical than gains, with its most violent drop occurring in the 2007-2009 recession.

    The more than 37% drop of the S&P 500 from 2007 to 2009 was the worst of its kind in a recession since the late 1960s.


    Refinitiv data, London Stock Exchange Group

    While a looming U.S. recession isn’t a foregone conclusion, CEOs of America’s biggest banks have been warning about the risks for months. JP Morgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon said in October that a “tough recession” could drag the S&P 500 down another 20%, even though he also said consumers were doing fine, for now.

    Still, the steady stream of warnings about the recession odds have left many Americans confused and wondering if one can even happen without an increase in job losses.

    Big moves lately in stocks also have been hard to decode, given the economy was shocked back to life in the pandemic by trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus and easy-money policies from the Fed that are now being reversed.

    “What I think goes unnoticed, certainly by the average person, is that these moves are not normal,” said Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, about stock swings this week.

    “It’s all about who is positioned how — and for what — and how much leverage they’re employing,” Martin told MarketWatch. “You get these outsized moves when people are offside.”

    Here’s a view of the sharp trajectory upward of the S&P 500 since 2010, but also its dramatic drop this year.

    Sharp rise of S&P 500 since 2010, but recent fall


    Refinitiv Datastream

    While Martin isn’t ruling out the potential for a seasonal “Santa Claus” rally heading into year-end, he worries about a potential leg lower for stocks next year, particularly with the Fed likely to keep interest rates high.

    “Certainly what’s being priced in now is either no recession or a very, very mild recession,” he said .

    However, Kristina Hooper, Invesco’s chief global market strategist, said the overarching story might be one of stocks sniffing out the first steps in a path to economic recovery, and the Fed potentially stopping its rate hikes at a lower “terminal” rate than expected.

    The Fed increased its benchmark interest rate to a 3.75% to 4% range in November, the highest in 15 years, but also has signaled it could top out near 4.5% to 4.75%.

    “If often happens that you can see stocks do well, in a less-than-good economic environment,” she said.

    The S&P 500 rose 4.2% for the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.10%

    gained 5.9%, posting its best weekly gain since late June, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Nasdaq Composite Index shot up 8.1% for the week, its best weekly stretch in seven months.

    In U.S. economic data, investors will get an update on household debt on Tuesday, retail sales and homebuilder data on Wednesday, followed by jobless claims and housing starts data Thursday. Friday brings existing home sales.

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  • Chinese travel, consumption stocks rally as Beijing eases COVID rules

    Chinese travel, consumption stocks rally as Beijing eases COVID rules

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    Shares of Chinese travel and consumer companies gained ground in Hong Kong after Beijing eased some Covid-19 restrictions, improving the outlook for sectors directly hit by the pandemic and the broader economic recovery.

    In Friday afternoon trade, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index
    160462,
    +7.98%

    advanced 7.6%, while the city’s benchmark Hang Seng Index
    HSI,
    +7.51%

    jumped 7.1% to 17221.43, recovering to levels last seen a month ago. The benchmark index would mark its largest one-day gain since mid-March if it closes at current levels.

    China’s three major airlines, Air China Ltd.
    601111,
    -3.11%
    ,
    China Southern Airlines Co.
    600029,
    +0.13%

    and China Eastern Airlines Corp.
    600115,
    +1.14%
    ,
    added between 2.2% and 5.1%, while travel retailer China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp.
    601888,
    +3.65%

    climbed 7.1%.

    Broader consumer-related sectors also strengthened, amid hopes that less stringent rules could help revive consumption. E-commerce platforms Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.
    BABA,
    +7.60%

    9988,
    +11.51%

    and JD.com Inc.
    JD,
    +8.41%

    9618,
    +16.22%

    jumped 11% and 16%, respectively, while restaurant operator Haidilao International Holding Ltd.
    6862,
    +5.21%

    climbed 4.7%.

    China said Friday that it will shorten the quarantine period for close contacts of COVID cases and travelers to the country, among other policy tweaks. But the government also said it will stick to its zero-COVID policy.

    Friday’s market upturn came on the back of U.S. stocks’ biggest rally in two years, after October inflation data was weaker than expected, lifting expectations of less aggressive interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve.

    Write to Clarence Leong at clarence.leong@wsj.com

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  • Apple and Google stocks just had their worst week in more than two years

    Apple and Google stocks just had their worst week in more than two years

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    Shares of Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc. both suffered their largest weekly declines since the beginning days of the pandemic this week, as Big Tech companies continued to draw closer scrutiny from Wall Street.

    Apple’s stock
    AAPL,
    -0.19%

    finished down 11.2% on the week, its worst weekly performance since the week that ended March 20, 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The stock declined 17.5% during that early-pandemic stretch.

    Shares of Apple fell during all five sessions this week.

    Shares in Google parent Alphabet
    GOOG,
    +3.84%

    GOOGL,
    +3.78%

    declined 10.1% during the week, their worst one-day percentage drop since that same March 20, 2020 week, when they fell 12.03%. The stock’s biggest weekly tumble in more than two years came even as Alphabet snapped a four-session losing streak in Friday trading.

    While Apple’s stock has fared better than that of Alphabet and other Big Tech peers, the company faces potential pandemic-related challenges owing to new COVID-19 setbacks at manufacturer Foxconn’s major facility. In addition, the realities of the current economic climate may be catching up to Apple, as Bloomberg News reported Thursday that the company had paused hiring in several areas unrelated to research and development.

    See more: Apple reportedly pauses hiring for many roles, joining Amazon in belt-tightening

    Though there didn’t seem to be any major news developments pegged to Alphabet specifically in the past week, investors are putting more pressure on big internet companies, according to Bernstein analyst Mark Shmulik. He recently conducted a Big Tech “autopsy” of results from Alphabet, Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +1.88%
    ,
    and Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    +2.11%
    ,
    concluding that “perfection is required from here” for the three tech giants since Wall Street has less patience for weak performance in any one of their many business areas.

    Read: Amazon closes below $1 trillion valuation for the first time since 2020

    All three names suffered negative stock reactions in the wake of their latest earnings reports, which indicated challenges in the ad market due to economic pressures. At Alphabet specifically, “Search was more or less in-line with the buy-side bogey and the Cloud beat, but disappointing YouTube results combined with margin contraction drove a ~10% fall after-hours,” Shmulik wrote.

    Alphabet’s stock has declined 40% so far in 2022, while Apple’s is off 22% over the same span. The S&P 500
    SPX,
    +1.36%

    is down 21% on the year while the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +1.26%

    is off 11%.

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  • Atlassian stock suffers worst day ever, nearly $13 billion in valuation wiped away

    Atlassian stock suffers worst day ever, nearly $13 billion in valuation wiped away

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    Atlassian Corp. shares dropped nearly 30% Friday, after the business-collaboration software company’s earnings and revenue outlook fell short of Wall Street expectations and executives described signs of economic weakness taking hold.

    Atlassian
    TEAM,
    -28.96%

    shares plummeted to an intraday low of $117.11 in Friday trading, nearly 33% lower than Thursday’s closing price and the lowest price for Atlassian stock since March of 2020. At the close, shares were trading for $123.73, a 29% descent that is easily the worst daily percentage decline on record for Atlassian stock — the previous mark was a 15.9% decline on Feb. 5, 2016.

    Atlassian — known for software programs such as Jira — was worth roughly $44 billion at its closing price Thursday, so Friday’s decline represented a loss of nearly $13 billion in market capitalization, $12.86 billion to be exact. Atlassian shares had already declined 54.3% so far this year as of Thursday’s close, while the S&P 500 index
    SPX,
    +1.36%

    declined 21.1%.

    Atlassian executives forecast revenue of $835 million to $855 million for their fiscal second quarter, while analysts expected $879.3 million on average, according to FactSet. Executives also decreased their revenue guidance for the full year, without providing a specific figure for overall annual revenue; instead, they gave color in a letter to shareholders about the different revenue segments within the company.

    In that letter to shareholders, Atlassian’s co-chief executives and co-founders, Mike Cannon-Brooks and Scoot Farquhar, said that the company tracked slower conversions from free to paid subscriptions for its “freemium” software, and slower growth from its paying customers in the quarter.

    “The above two trends are the result of companies tightening their belts and slowing their pace of hiring. In other words, Atlassian is not immune to broader macroeconomic impacts,” they wrote. “Our outlook assumes these trends will persist, but we’ll monitor, respond and keep you updated accordingly.”

    “We will focus our investments on strengthening our market position and scooping up top-tier talent in this environment. But we will balance these investments with the growth of our business and be responsive to the macroeconomic conditions,” they continued. “So while we’re lowering our revenue outlook for FY23 based on macroeconomic headwinds, we are maintaining our midteens % operating margin outlook for the year.”

    Chief Financial Officer Joe Binz detailed planned cost cuts and a hiring slowdown in response during a conference call Thursday afternoon.

    “First and foremost, we’re making reductions in our non-head count-driven discretionary spending,” he said in response to an analyst’s question. “And then, secondarily, we’ll be moderating the rate of planned head count growth in the second half of FY 2023.”

    Executives reported a fiscal first-quarter loss of $13.7 million, or 5 cents a share, compared with a loss of $411.2 million, or $1.63 a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted earnings, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses and other items, were 36 cents a share, compared with 37 cents a share in the year-ago period.

    Revenue rose to $807.4 million from $614 million in the year-ago quarter. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast adjusted earnings of 40 cents a share on revenue of $806.3 million.

    “These results came as a bit of a shock, and are frankly something we thought we’d never see from a high-performing company like TEAM that also possesses a unique value proposition and business model,” Mizuho analysts wrote while chopping their price target on the stock to $255 from $320 but maintaining a “Buy” rating on the stock.

    “Despite the big setback, we believe TEAM is likely to be one of the biggest
    winners once the macro environment improves,” they wrote. “Why? Most notably, we would highlight a very strong competitive position in the important DevOps market, a still vibrant top-of-funnel (35K net new paid customers added over the LTM), a multiyear cloud migration catalyst, and meaningful pricing power as key growth drivers.”

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  • Roku stock plunges as downbeat earnings forecast assumes ad budgets could ‘degrade’

    Roku stock plunges as downbeat earnings forecast assumes ad budgets could ‘degrade’

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    Roku Inc. shares plummeted 19% in after-hours trading Wednesday after the streaming company topped expectations with its latest results but gave a weaker-than-anticipated outlook for the holiday quarter as economic conditions could further “degrade advertising budgets.”

    For the fourth quarter, Roku executives anticipate $800 million in revenue and a loss of $135 million on the basis of adjusted Ebitda. The FactSet consensus called for $899 million in revenue as well as a $48 million adjusted Ebitda loss.

    “As we enter the holiday season, we expect the macro environment to further pressure consumer discretionary spend and degrade advertising budgets, especially in the TV scatter market,” the company said in its shareholder letter. “We expect these conditions to be temporary, but it is difficult to predict when they will stabilize or rebound.”

    Chief Financial Officer Steve Louden shared on a call with reporters following the release that the company’s forecast “reflects the fact that we see a lot of challenges in the macro environment.”

    He explained that Roku tends to be more exposed to the scatter ad market — which represents ads bought during the quarter — than the typical TV network. Scatter spending is easy for marketers to turn on, but also easier for them to turn off, he noted.

    The forecast overshadowed the results from Roku’s third quarter, which were broadly better than expected.

    The company posted a net loss of $122.2 million, or 88 cents a share, whereas it logged net income of $68.9 million, or 48 a share, in the year-earlier period. Analysts tracked by FactSet were expecting a $1.29 loss on a per-share basis.

    Roku also reported a loss of $34 million on the basis of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. The company had posted positive adjusted Ebitda of $130 million in the year-before quarter. The FactSet consensus was for a $74 million loss on the non-GAAP metric.

    Revenue rose to $761 million from $680 million, while analysts were anticipating $696 million.

    The company generated $670 million in platform revenue and $91 million in player revenue. Analysts were expecting platform revenue of $613 million and player revenue of $87 million.

    Roku had 65.4 million active accounts in the latest quarter, up from 63.1 million in the second quarter. Average revenue per user was $44.25 on a trailing-12-month basis, compared with $44.10 in the second quarter and $40.10 in the prior year’s third quarter.

    Analysts were anticipating 64 million active accounts and $43.40 in average revenue per user.

    Louden noted on the media call that the account numbers “outperformed expectations.” The company has seen “strong sales of smart TVs both in the U.S. and internationally,” with Louden adding that “it’s hard to tell how much is driven by a shift back to home or back to streaming, which is a very good value proposition if money is tight.”

    Viewers spent 21.9 billion hours streaming content through Roku’s platform in the period. The FactSet consensus was for 20.9 billion hours streamed.

    As companies like Netflix Inc.
    NFLX,
    -4.80%

    and Walt Disney Co.
    DIS,
    -3.94%

    explore ad-supported streaming more deeply, Louden sees opportunity for Roku to be of further value.

    “That changes their focus a bit from only thinking about subscribers to thinking about engagement” and he sees Roku’s team members as “experts in understanding how consumers look at that.”

    The company also noted in its shareholder letter that CFO Louden intends to leave Roku at some point in 2023 after helping to recruit and train his successor.

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  • How the Federal Reserve’s rate hike impacts your holiday spending plans: ‘It’s not the time to overspend’

    How the Federal Reserve’s rate hike impacts your holiday spending plans: ‘It’s not the time to overspend’

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    It is three weeks before Black Friday, but the Federal Reserve is about to make the post-holiday debt hangover a little more intense.

    By the time the latest rate hikes filter through the very rate-sensitive credit card industry and pump up customers’ annual percentage rates a little more, experts say it will be some point in December 2022 or January 2023. Right in time for many holiday gifts and expenses to post on credit cards bills — and there to make the costs of a carried balance a little extra expensive.

    Every year, many people accumulate credit card debt through the holiday season, pay it off in the early part of the following year and then repeat the process.

    What’s different now is the presence of four-decade high inflation, coupled with fast-rising interest rates that the Fed hopes will ultimately cool those rising prices, although without sending the economy to a recessionary thud.

    Wednesday’s rate move is the fourth straight 75-basis-point rate hike to the federal funds rate, taking it to the 3.75% -4% range, when it was near zero last year’s holiday season. By now, Americans are all too acquainted with 2022’s fast-rising interest rates. They just haven’t gone through a Christmas and Hanakkuh with it yet.

    “It’s not the time to overspend and have a problem with paying your bills later. We know the economy is sending mixed messages,” said Michele Raneri, vice president of financial services research and consulting at TransUnion
    TRU,
    -4.31%
    ,
    one of the country’s three major credit reporting companies.

    It’s extra important to think through a holiday budget and how much relies on credit, she said. “People need to think about how much they can afford to repay and how long it will take to repay it.”

    Holiday spending could be the same as 2021 for many people — but not everyone

    Last month, third-quarter earnings from major banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co.
    JPM,
    -0.92%
    ,
    Wells Fargo
    WFC,
    -0.15%
    ,
    Citibank
    C,
    -1.45%

    and Bank of America
    BAC,
    -0.30%

    indicated consumer finances, on the whole, are not yet showing cracks under inflation’s strains. (Other numbers show the strain, like the personal savings rate that’s been dwindling.)

    Now, two forecasts suggest many people ready to spend the same amount for this year’s holiday cheer as they did last year.

    People are planning to spend an average $1,430 on gifts, travel and entertainment this year, which is around the $1,447 spent last year, according to PwC researchers. Three-quarters of people said they were planning to spend the same or more than last year and respondents said credit cards were one of their top ways to pay.

    Compared to last year, credit card balances are getting bigger, more people are sitting on balances and debt costs are getting pricier.

    By another measure, Americans will pay an average $1,455 on holiday-related gifts and experiences, essentially flat from last year, say Deloitte researchers.

    More than one-third of surveyed consumers say their financial outlook is worse than the same point last year. Nearly one-quarter of people were concerned about credit card debt as of late September, Deloitte’s numbers show in an ongoing tracking of consumer mood.

    It’s understandable to see the concern with households amassing a collective $890 billion in credit card debt through the second quarter. Compared to last year, balances are getting bigger, more people are sitting on balances and debt costs are getting pricier because the interest rates applied to those balances are rising.

    When people were carrying a credit card balance month to month, the sum was $5,474 on average, according to Raneri. That’s through the end of September and it’s a nearly 13% rise year over year, she said. The 164 million people carrying a balance is a 5% increase from last year, she noted.

    Credit cards carrying a balance during the third quarter had an average 18.43% APR, Federal Reserve data shows. That’s up from 16.65% in the second quarter and up from 17.13% in 2021’s third quarter.

    How the Fed influences credit card rates

    Credit card issuers typically determine their rates by applying a “prime rate” — typically three percentage points on top of the federal funds rate — and the issuer’s profit margin, said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com.

    By late October, the rate on new card offers was 18.73%, according to Bankrate data. At this point last year, it was 16.31%, Rossman said. In a few weeks, the rates on new offers should beat the all-time record of an average 19% APR, exclusive to new offers, he added.

    While it can take a billing cycle or two for a higher APR to make its way to an existing credit card account, Rossman noted the APRs on new offers could rise in a matter of days.

    Here’s a hypothetical to show how much more expensive credit card debt becomes with every extra hike. Suppose the $5,474 balance is on a credit card with the current 18.73% average. If a person has to resort to minimum payments, Rossman said, they’d be paying $7,118 just in interest to pay off the debt.

    In a few weeks, the rates on new credit card offers should beat the all-time record of an average 19% APR.

    What if the 18.73% APR gets kicked up 75 basis points to 19.48%? If that same borrower has to pay minimums, they are now paying $7,417 in interest to snuff the principal debt of $5,474, Rossman said.

    The example has its limits because people may pay more than the minimum and they may incur more credit card debt as they pay off the old one. But it shows a bigger point: “Unfortunately, anybody dealing with credit card debt is a loser from the series of rate hikes. It was already expensive. It’s getting more so,” Rossman said.

    When do rate hikes stop?

    While decisions during the Fed’s November meeting can have a ripple effect on holiday-time borrowing costs, observers say the real question about Wednesday is the clues Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell drops for what’s next. The central bank’s committee voting on interest rate increases reconvenes in mid-December.

    On Wednesday, the Fed said in a statement it expected further rate increases, but also said it would be watching to see if there were lag effects with its tightening policies, which could slow or limit the total amount of increases.

    “People, when they hear lags, they think about a pause. It’s very premature, in my view, to think about or be talking about pausing our rate hike. We have a ways to  go,” Powell told reporters at a Wednesday afternoon press conference.

    The economy is strong enough to handle higher rates, Powell said. For one thing, households have “strong balance sheets” and “strong spending power,” he noted.

    Stock markets first jumped higher after the latest interest rate announcement. But they gave up the gains — and then some — by the end of the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -1.55%

    was down more than 500 points, or 1.6% while the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -2.50%

    was down 2.5% and the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -3.36%

    closed 3.4% lower.

    Top economists in major North American-based banks forecasted the Fed will keep raising interest rates “until the first quarter of next year before potentially lowering rates through the end of 2023,” Sayee Srinivasan, chief economist at the American Bankers Association, the banking sector’s trade association, said ahead of Wednesday’s latest rate hike.

    Top economists polled as part of a banking industry panel expect Fed rate increases through at least the first quarter of 2023.

    The forecast, coming through an ABA advisory committee, is no sure thing. “Everything depends on the ability of the Fed to bring inflation down, so that will remain their clear priority,” said Srinivasan.

    Meanwhile, rising costs may cause more people to put the holiday cheer on plastic, even their decorations. The majority of Christmas tree growers in one poll are expecting wholesale prices to climb 5% to 15% for this season.

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  • Amazon closes below $1 trillion valuation for the first time since 2020

    Amazon closes below $1 trillion valuation for the first time since 2020

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    The swift recent decline in Amazon.com Inc.’s stock has brought the company’s closing market value below $1 trillion for the first time in more than two years.

    Amazon shares
    AMZN,
    -0.82%

    fell 5.5% in Tuesday action, finishing with a market value of $987 billion. This marked the first time since April 6, 2020 that Amazon closed out of trillion-dollar territory, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Amazon’s valuation fell below the trillion-dollar milestone Tuesday.


    Dow Jones Market Data

    Amazon shares have tumbled 19.74% over the most recent five-session stretch. That five-day decline was the worst five-day loss for Amazon since its 22.03% plunge during the period that ended Nov. 20, 2008.

    The e-commerce giant has come under recent pressure after the company’s latest earnings report highlighted a slowdown in AWS cloud-computing revenue growth. Additionally, Amazon disappointed with the forecast it offered for the holiday quarter.

    “Combined with wobbles on revenue momentum for both AWS and retail, and suddenly the Amazon hiding place doesn’t look good,” Bernstein analyst Mark Shmulik wrote following Amazon’s earnings report last Thursday. “The good news here is that the story isn’t broken, it’s just pushed out into 2023, while Q4 may get worse before it gets better.”

    When looking at companies worth more than $200 billion, Amazon is currently closest to seeing its stock hit its pandemic-era low, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Amazon shares closed Thursday at $96.79, 15.5% above their pandemic low of $83.83. Only shares of Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    -2.30%

    have actually plunged below their pandemic low, among this grouping of the largest U.S. companies.

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  • 20 dividend stocks that may be safest if the Federal Reserve causes a recession

    20 dividend stocks that may be safest if the Federal Reserve causes a recession

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    Investors cheered when a report last week showed the economy expanded in the third quarter after back-to-back contractions.

    But it’s too early to get excited, because the Federal Reserve hasn’t given any sign yet that it is about to stop raising interest rates at the fastest pace in decades.

    Below is a list of dividend stocks that have had low price volatility over the past 12 months, culled from three large exchange traded funds that screen for high yields and quality in different ways.

    In a year when the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.40%

    is down 18%, the three ETFs have widely outperformed, with the best of the group falling only 1%.

    Read: GDP looked great for the U.S. economy, but it really wasn’t

    That said, last week was a very good one for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 returning 4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    -0.32%

    having its best October ever.

    This week, investors’ eyes turn back to the Federal Reserve. Following a two-day policy meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to make its fourth consecutive increase of 0.75% to the federal funds rate on Wednesday.

    The inverted yield curve, with yields on two-year U.S. Treasury notes
    TMUBMUSD02Y,
    4.540%

    exceeding yields on 10-year notes
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    4.064%
    ,
    indicates investors in the bond market expect a recession. Meanwhile, this has been a difficult earnings season for many companies and analysts have reacted by lowering their earnings estimates.

    The weighted rolling consensus 12-month earning estimate for the S&P 500, based on estimates of analysts polled by FactSet, has declined 2% over the past month to $230.60. In a healthy economy, investors expect this number to rise every quarter, at least slightly.

    Low-volatility stocks are working in 2022

    Take a look at this chart, showing year-to-date total returns for the three ETFs against the S&P 500 through October:


    FactSet

    The three dividend-stock ETFs take different approaches:

    • The $40.6 billion Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF
      SCHD,
      +0.15%

      tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend 100 Indexed quarterly. This approach incorporates 10-year screens for cash flow, debt, return on equity and dividend growth for quality and safety. It excludes real estate investment trusts (REITs). The ETF’s 30-day SEC yield was 3.79% as of Sept. 30.

    • The iShares Select Dividend ETF
      DVY,
      +0.45%

      has $21.7 billion in assets. It tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Select Dividend Index, which is weighted by dividend yield and “skews toward smaller firms paying consistent dividends,” according to FactSet. It holds about 100 stocks, includes REITs and looks back five years for dividend growth and payout ratios. The ETF’s 30-day yield was 4.07% as of Sept. 30.

    • The SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend ETF
      SPYD,
      +0.60%

      has $7.8 billion in assets and holds 80 stocks, taking an equal-weighted approach to investing in the top-yielding stocks among the S&P 500. It’s 30-day yield was 4.07% as of Sept. 30.

    All three ETFs have fared well this year relative to the S&P 500. The funds’ beta — a measure of price volatility against that of the S&P 500 (in this case) — have ranged this year from 0.75 to 0.76, according to FactSet. A beta of 1 would indicate volatility matching that of the index, while a beta above 1 would indicate higher volatility.

    Now look at this five-year total return chart showing the three ETFs against the S&P 500 over the past five years:


    FactSet

    The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF ranks highest for five-year total return with dividends reinvested — it is the only one of the three to beat the index for this period.

    Screening for the least volatile dividend stocks

    Together, the three ETFs hold 194 stocks. Here are the 20 with the lowest 12-month beta. The list is sorted by beta, ascending, and dividend yields range from 2.45% to 8.13%:

    Company

    Ticker

    12-month beta

    Dividend yield

    2022 total return

    Newmont Corp.

    NEM,
    -0.78%
    0.17

    5.20%

    -30%

    Verizon Communications Inc.

    VZ,
    -0.07%
    0.22

    6.98%

    -24%

    General Mills Inc.

    GIS,
    -1.47%
    0.27

    2.65%

    25%

    Kellogg Co.

    K,
    -0.93%
    0.27

    3.07%

    22%

    Merck & Co. Inc.

    MRK,
    -1.73%
    0.29

    2.73%

    35%

    Kraft Heinz Co.

    KHC,
    -0.56%
    0.35

    4.16%

    11%

    City Holding Co.

    CHCO,
    -1.45%
    0.38

    2.58%

    27%

    CVB Financial Corp.

    CVBF,
    -1.24%
    0.38

    2.79%

    37%

    First Horizon Corp.

    FHN,
    -0.18%
    0.39

    2.45%

    53%

    Avista Corp.

    AVA,
    -7.82%
    0.41

    4.29%

    0%

    NorthWestern Corp.

    NWE,
    -0.21%
    0.42

    4.77%

    -4%

    Altria Group Inc

    MO,
    -0.18%
    0.43

    8.13%

    4%

    Northwest Bancshares Inc.

    NWBI,
    +0.10%
    0.45

    5.31%

    11%

    AT&T Inc.

    T,
    +0.63%
    0.47

    6.09%

    5%

    Flowers Foods Inc.

    FLO,
    -0.44%
    0.48

    3.07%

    7%

    Mercury General Corp.

    MCY,
    +0.07%
    0.48

    4.38%

    -43%

    Conagra Brands Inc.

    CAG,
    -0.82%
    0.48

    3.60%

    10%

    Amgen Inc.

    AMGN,
    +0.41%
    0.49

    2.87%

    23%

    Safety Insurance Group Inc.

    SAFT,
    -1.70%
    0.49

    4.14%

    5%

    Tyson Foods Inc. Class A

    TSN,
    -0.40%
    0.50

    2.69%

    -20%

    Source: FactSet

    Any list of stocks will have its dogs, but 16 of these 20 have outperformed the S&P 500 so far in 2022, and 14 have had positive total returns.

    You can click on the tickers for more about each company. Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    Don’t miss: Municipal bond yields are attractive now — here’s how to figure out if they are right for you

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  • Why the Dow is having a killer month as it heads for best October ever

    Why the Dow is having a killer month as it heads for best October ever

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    The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been criticized by some market watchers for being a poor barometer of equity-market performance given its relatively small sample size of just 30 stocks.

    But this quality, along with the paucity of megacap technology names, has helped shepherd the index toward what’s expected to be its biggest October gain in its 126-year history.

    With a month-to-date gain of 14.40% through Friday, the Dow
    DJIA,
    +2.59%

    is on track for its best monthly performance since January 1976, when it rose 14.41%, according to Dow Jones Market Data. To clinch its best October ever, it only needs to hang on to a month-to-date gain of 10.65% by the time the U.S. market closes on Monday.

    The Dow is still in a bear market, but is now down less than 10% for the year to date. That compares, however, with year-to-date losses of 18.2% for the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +2.46%

    and 29% for the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -8.39%
    .

    Read: What the Dow’s stellar October and Big Tech’s ugly rout say about the stock market right now

    What exactly has made the Dow’s October performance so stellar?

     The blue-chip gauge is packed with energy and industrials stocks, which have been among the best performing sectors for the stock market since the start of the year, noted Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management. 

    These stocks have performed particularly well since the start of the latest quarterly earnings season, while megacap technology names like Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    +1.29%
    ,
    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    -6.80%

    and Alphabet Inc.
    GOOG,
    +4.30%

    have sputtered after delivering results and guidance that disappointed Wall Street this week.

    “It’s very tech-light, and it’s very heavy in energy and industrials, and those have been the winners,” Hogan said. “The Dow just has more of the winners embedded in it and that has been the secret to its success.”

    See: Live markets coverage

    The Dow is on track to log its highest close in at least two months on Friday as it outperforms both the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +2.46%

    and Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    -8.39%
    .
    Furthermore, it’s on track to climb for a sixth straight session, what would be its longest winning streak since May 27, according to DJMD. 

    Adding to the list of notable factoids, the average is also on track to log a fourth straight weekly gain, which would cement its longest winning streak since Nov. 5, 2021, when the index rose for five straight weeks. 

    Caterpillar Inc.
    CAT,
    +3.39%
    ,
    Chevron Corp.
    CVX,
    +1.17%

    And Amgen Inc.
    AMGN,
    +2.46%

    are the top-performing Dow stocks so far this month, having gained 29.3%, 21.2% and 18.3%, respectively, as of Friday.  

    In recent trade, the blue-chip average was up around 700 points, or 2.2%, on track for its biggest daily point and percentage gain in exactly one week.  

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