ReportWire

Tag: Business/Consumer Services

  • Delta Air Lines stock jumps on raised guidance, as carrier cites ‘robust’ demand for air travel

    Delta Air Lines stock jumps on raised guidance, as carrier cites ‘robust’ demand for air travel

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    Delta Air Lines’ stock rose 4.7% before market open on Wednesday after the company raised its earnings guidance.

    The carrier
    DAL,
    -4.00%

    said it is executing on its three-year recovery plan, with year-one results ahead of expectations. Delta also highlighted robust demand for air travel as the industry recovers from the widespread disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The carrier raised its 2022 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.07 to $3.12. Analysts surveyed by FactSet were looking for earnings of $2.88 a share. For 2023, Delta Air Lines Inc. forecast a near doubling of adjusted earnings to $5 to $6 a share.

    See Now: After too little, too much, there are ‘Goldilocks’ conditions for air travel in 2023

    Delta also forecast 2023 revenue growth at 15% to 20% compared with 2022 and said it is on track to meet its 2024 earnings target of more than $7 a share. “Demand for air travel remains robust as we exit the year and Delta’s momentum is building,” said Delta CEO Ed Bastian, in a statement.

    Delta said it expects to deliver strong topline growth in 2023 and significant operating leverage, boosted by a full restoration of its network and continued improvements in premium and loyalty revenue.

    Non-fuel unit costs are expected to decline 5% to 7%, driving Delta’s margin expansion and adjusted earnings growth, the company said. Delta expects to generate more than $2 billion of free cash flow, which it said will enable further debt reduction.

    See Now: Delta kicked off airline earnings season with a bang. What does it mean for other carriers?

    “2022 is proving to be a pivotal year as we rebuild the world’s best-performing airline,” said Bastian, in the statement.

    The company’s robust guidance boosted other airline stocks before market open, with United Airlines Holdings Inc.
    UAL,
    -6.94%

    rising 1.4%, American Airlines Group Inc.
    AAL,
    -5.21%

    gaining 1.3%, and JetBlue Airways Corp.
    JBLU,
    -7.67%

    rising 1.3%.

    Delta shares have fallen 14.6% this year, compared with the S&P 500 index’s
    SPX,
    +0.73%

    decline of 15.7% and the U.S Global Jets ETF’s
    JETS,
    -2.85%

    slump of 14.3%. 

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  • GE HealthCare Is About to Be Independent. This Is Where the Stock Should Trade.

    GE HealthCare Is About to Be Independent. This Is Where the Stock Should Trade.

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    To start 2023, investors will have a choice to invest in a brand new $18 billion company with some 50,000 energized employees and a plan to create shareholder value.

    To close out 2022, that company—GE HealthCare—is on the road, introducing itself to investors. With each new detail that emerges investors get a better sense of where the new stock should trade.

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  • Vanguard sees a recession in 2023 — and one ‘silver lining’ for investors

    Vanguard sees a recession in 2023 — and one ‘silver lining’ for investors

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    The last 12 months was a year of fast-rising inflation, fast-rising interest rates and fast-rising questions about a future recession.

    Prices went up while stock markets and savings account balances went down, leaving consumers and investors dizzy and their wallets hurting.

    There may be more financial pain, that’s pretty sure — but it might not be as bad as feared, according to Vanguard’s look ahead to 2023.

    The likely recession will not send jobless rates charging sharply higher, sticker shock will fade for the price of goods, and the rise in rent and mortgages will also ease, Vanguard said.

    On Tuesday, inflation data for November showed prices are continuing to cool. Analysts say that makes a 50-basis point increase, rather than a 75-basis-point increase, more likely.

    The good news: This opens up chances for stocks to rebound, the asset-manager added.

    The outlook, released this week, comes as Americans are trying to guess what 2023 holds for their finances while they manage their holiday shopping budgets, and 2022 investments.

    On Tuesday, inflation data for November showed prices are continuing to cool. From October to November, the cost of living nudged up 0.1%, lower than the 0.3% forecast, the Consumer Price Index showed. Year over year, the inflation rate receded to 7.1% from 7.7% in October, according to the CPI data.

    On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest decision on interest rate increases. A 50-basis point increase is widely expected after four jumbo-sized 75-basis point hikes from the central bank.

    Here’s one roadmap for what’s next, as far as Vanguard’s researchers and experts can see.

    Hot inflation will cool

    Inflation rates during 2022 climbed to four-decade highs. There have been signs of easing, such as smaller-than-expected price increases in October.

    “As we step into 2023, early signs of a recovery in goods supply and softening demand could help balance supply and demand for consumption goods and bring prices lower,” the authors noted ahead of Tuesday’s CPI numbers.

    But the cost and demand of services are going to prevent a quick fall, they noted. Signs of slowing price increases are already emerging in rents and mortgages, but they will take longer to ease than prices of consumer goods, the authors said.

    That echoes the view from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who said Sunday there will be “much lower inflation,” absent any unanticipated shocks to the economy.

    But while hot inflation will cool, it will still be warm to the touch. The Fed says 2% inflation is its target goal; Vanguard sees 3% inflation by the end of 2023.

    A recession is very much on the cards

    As “generationally high inflation” slowed economies across the world, the Fed and other central banks have countered with interest-rate increases to tame price increases. That “will ultimately succeed, but at a cost of a global recession in 2023,” according to Vanguard’s report. Vanguard sees a 90% chance of a recession in the United States by the end of next year.

    Vanguard is hardly alone in the recession call, so the question is how bad could the big picture look?

    In Vanguard’s view, it’s not so bad. “Households, businesses, and financial institutions are in a much better position to handle the eventual downturn, such that drawing parallels with the 1970s, 1980s, 2008, or 2020 seems misplaced,” the authors wrote.

    Job losses may be clustered

    For now, the jobless rate in a tight labor market is 3.7%, which is just a little above the lowest levels in five decades. That stands against the headline-grabbing list of companies where layoffs are mounting, notably in the tech sector.

    When a recession, in all likelihood, lands next year, “unemployment may peak around 5%, a historically low rate for a recession,” the Vanguard outlook said. As interest rates climb, the job losses “should be most concentrated in the technology and real estate sectors, which were among the strongest beneficiaries of the zero-rate environment.”

    The unemployment rate going from 3.7% to the 5% vicinity is “a sizable move,” Roger Aliaga-Díaz, Americas chief economist for Vanguard, said in a Monday press conference on the report. “But it is less dramatic of a rise than compared to past recessions perhaps.”

    Spotting the opportunities

    When interest rates go up, bond prices go down. So it’s been difficult for bonds with lower returns and “near-term pain” for investors this year, the Vanguard outlook said.

    “However the bright side of higher rates is higher interest payments. These have led our return expectations for U.S. and international bonds to increase by more than twofold,” the report said.

    Vanguard said U.S. bond return projections could be 4.1% – 5.1% annually over the next year versus its 1.4% – 2.4% return estimate last year. For U.S. stocks, the forecast could be 4.7% – 6.7% annually, while returns in emerging market equities could be between 7% and 9%.

    On Tuesday morning, stock markets are soaring higher on the cooler than expected inflation data, igniting hopes of an end of year Santa Claus rally.

    ‘There’s one silver lining of our outlook for a modest global recession. And it’s the clear silver lining of higher expected returns for investors.’


    — Joseph Davis, Vanguard’s chief global economist

    Still, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.30%

    is down nearly 5% year to date. The S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.73%

    is off 14% in that time and for the Nasdaq Composite
    COMP,
    +0.38%

    is down more than 26%.

    When the market hits bottom is impossible to know, the outlook said — but it noted “valuations and yields are clearly more attractive than they were a year ago.”

    “There’s one silver lining of our outlook for a modest global recession. And it’s the clear silver lining of higher expected returns for investors,” said Joseph Davis, Vanguard’s chief global economist.

    “We’re long concerned that the low rate environment was both unsustainable and ultimately a tax and a headwind for savers and long term investors,” Davis said.

    But even with all the turbulence this year, “we certainly are starting to see the dividends to higher real interest rates around the world in the higher projected returns that we anticipate for investors over the coming decade.”

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  • Best stock picks for 2023: Here are Wall Street analysts’ most heavily favored choices

    Best stock picks for 2023: Here are Wall Street analysts’ most heavily favored choices

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    Following a sharp and sustained rise in interest rates, U.S. stocks have taken a broad beating this year.

    But 2023 may bring very different circumstances.

    Below are lists of analysts’ favorite stocks among the benchmark S&P 500
    SPX,
    the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index
    MID
    and the S&P Small Cap 600 Index
    SML
    that are expected to rise the most over the next year. Those lists are followed by a summary of opinions of all 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA.

    Stocks rallied on Dec. 13 when the November CPI report showed a much slower inflation pace than economists had expected. Investors were also anticipating the Federal Open Market Committee’s next monetary policy announcement on Dec. 14. The consensus among economists polled by FactSet is for the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate by 0.50% to a target range of 4.50% to 4.75%.

    Read: 5 things to watch when the Fed makes its interest-rate decision

    A 0.50% increase would be a slowdown from the four previous increases of 0.75%. The rate began 2022 in a range of zero to 0.25%, where it had sat since March 2020.

    A pivot for the Fed Reserve and the possibility that the federal funds rate will reach its “terminal” rate (the highest for this cycle) in the near term could set the stage for a broad rally for stocks in 2023.

    Wall Street’s large-cap favorites

    Among the S&P 500, 92 stocks are rated “buy” or the equivalent by at least 75% of analysts working for brokerage firms. That number itself is interesting — at the end of 2021, 93 of the S&P 500 had this distinction. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has declined 16% in 2022, with all sectors down except for energy, which has risen 53%, and the utilities sector, which his risen 1% (both excluding dividends).

    Here are the 20 stocks in the S&P 500 with at least 75% “buy” or equivalent ratings that analysts expect to rise the most over the next year, based on consensus price targets:

    Company

    Ticker

    Industry

    Closing price – Dec. 12

    Consensus price target

    Implied 12-month upside potential

    Share “buy” ratings

    Price change – 2022 through Dec. 12

    EQT Corp.

    EQT Oil and Gas Production

    $36.91

    $59.70

    62%

    78%

    69%

    Catalent Inc.

    CTLT Pharmaceuticals

    $45.50

    $72.42

    59%

    75%

    -64%

    Amazon.com Inc.

    AMZN Internet Retail

    $90.55

    $136.02

    50%

    91%

    -46%

    Global Payments Inc.

    GPN Misc. Commercial Services

    $99.64

    $147.43

    48%

    75%

    -26%

    Signature Bank

    SBNY Regional Banks

    $122.73

    $180.44

    47%

    78%

    -62%

    Salesforce Inc.

    CRM Software

    $133.11

    $195.59

    47%

    80%

    -48%

    Bio-Rad Laboratories Inc. Class A

    BIO Medical Specialties

    $418.28

    $591.00

    41%

    100%

    -45%

    Zoetis Inc. Class A

    ZTS Pharmaceuticals

    $152.86

    $212.80

    39%

    87%

    -37%

    Delta Air Lines Inc.

    DAL Airlines

    $34.77

    $48.31

    39%

    90%

    -11%

    Diamondback Energy Inc.

    FANG Oil and Gas Production

    $134.21

    $182.33

    36%

    84%

    24%

    Caesars Entertainment Inc

    CZR Casinos/ Gaming

    $50.27

    $67.79

    35%

    81%

    -46%

    Alphabet Inc. Class A

    GOOGL Internet Software/ Services

    $93.31

    $125.70

    35%

    92%

    -36%

    Halliburton Co.

    HAL Oilfield Services/ Equipment

    $34.30

    $45.95

    34%

    86%

    50%

    Alaska Air Group Inc.

    ALK Airlines

    $45.75

    $61.08

    34%

    93%

    -12%

    Targa Resources Corp.

    TRGP Gas Distributors

    $70.42

    $93.95

    33%

    95%

    35%

    Charles River Laboratories International Inc.

    CRL Misc. Commercial Services

    $201.94

    $269.25

    33%

    88%

    -46%

    ServiceNow Inc.

    NOW Information Technology Services

    $401.64

    $529.83

    32%

    92%

    -38%

    Take-Two Interactive Software Inc.

    TTWO Software

    $102.61

    $135.04

    32%

    79%

    -42%

    EOG Resources Inc.

    EOG Oil and Gas Production

    $124.06

    $158.24

    28%

    82%

    40%

    Southwest Airlines Co.

    LUV Airlines

    $38.94

    $49.56

    27%

    76%

    -9%

    Source: FactSet

    Most of the companies on the S&P 500 list expected to soar in 2023 have seen large declines in 2022. But the company at the top of the list, EQT Corp.
    EQT,
    is an exception. The stock has risen 69% in 2022 and is expected to add another 62% over the next 12 months. Analysts expect the company’s earnings per share to double during 2023 (in part from its expected acquisition of THQ), after nearly a four-fold EPS increase in 2022.

    Shares of Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN
    are expected to soar 50% over the next year, following a decline of 46% so far in 2022. If the shares were to rise 50% from here to the price target of $136.02, they would still be 18% below their closing price of 166.72 at the end of 2021.

    Read: Here’s why Amazon is Citi’s top internet stock idea

    You can see the earnings estimates and more for any stock in this article by clicking on its ticker.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    Mid-cap stocks expected to rise the most

    The lists of favored stocks are limited to those covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet.

    Among components of the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index, there are 84 stocks with at least 75% “buy” ratings. Here at the 20 expected to rise the most over the next year:

    Company

    Ticker

    Industry

    Closing price – Dec. 12

    Consensus price target

    Implied 12-month upside potential

    Share “buy” ratings

    Price change – 2022 through Dec. 12

    Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc.

    ARWR Biotechnology

    $31.85

    $69.69

    119%

    83%

    -52%

    Lantheus Holdings Inc.

    LNTH Medical Specialties

    $54.92

    $102.00

    86%

    100%

    90%

    Progyny Inc.

    PGNY Misc. Commercial Services

    $31.21

    $55.57

    78%

    100%

    -38%

    Coherent Corp.

    COHR Electronic Equipment/ Instruments

    $35.41

    $60.56

    71%

    84%

    -48%

    Exelixis Inc.

    EXEL Biotechnology

    $16.08

    $26.07

    62%

    81%

    -12%

    Darling Ingredients Inc.

    DAR Food: Specialty/ Candy

    $61.17

    $97.36

    59%

    93%

    -12%

    Perrigo Co. PLC

    PRGO Pharmaceuticals

    $31.83

    $49.25

    55%

    100%

    -18%

    Mattel Inc.

    MAT Recreational Products

    $17.39

    $26.58

    53%

    87%

    -19%

    ACI Worldwide Inc.

    ACIW Software

    $20.75

    $31.40

    51%

    83%

    -40%

    Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp.

    MODG Recreational Products

    $21.99

    $32.91

    50%

    83%

    -20%

    Dycom Industries Inc.

    DY Engineering and Construction

    $86.03

    $128.13

    49%

    100%

    -8%

    Travel + Leisure Co.

    TNL Hotels/ Resorts/ Cruiselines

    $37.98

    $56.00

    47%

    75%

    -31%

    Frontier Communications Parent Inc.

    FYBR Telecommunications

    $25.21

    $36.18

    44%

    82%

    -15%

    Manhattan Associates Inc.

    MANH Software

    $120.06

    $171.80

    43%

    88%

    -23%

    MP Materials Corp Class A

    MP Other Metals/ Minerals

    $31.39

    $44.79

    43%

    92%

    -31%

    Lumentum Holdings Inc.

    LITE Electrical Products

    $54.45

    $76.44

    40%

    76%

    -49%

    Tenet Healthcare Corp.

    THC Hospital/ Nursing Management

    $44.22

    $62.00

    40%

    80%

    -46%

    Repligen Corp.

    RGEN Pharmaceuticals

    $166.88

    $233.10

    40%

    82%

    -37%

    STAAR Surgical Co.

    STAA Medical Specialties

    $59.57

    $82.67

    39%

    82%

    -35%

    Carlisle Cos. Inc.

    CSL Building Products

    $251.99

    $348.33

    38%

    75%

    2%

    Source: FactSet

    Wall Street’s favorite small-cap names

    Among companies in the S&P Small Cap 600 Index, 91 are rated “buy” or the equivalent by at least 75% of analysts. Here are the 20 with the highest 12-month upside potential indicated by consensus price targets:

    Company

    Ticker

    Industry

    Closing price – Dec. 12

    Consensus price target

    Implied 12-month upside potential

    Share “buy” ratings

    Price change – 2022 through Dec. 12

    UniQure NV

    QURE Biotechnology

    $22.99

    $51.29

    123%

    95%

    11%

    Cara Therapeutics Inc.

    CARA Biotechnology

    $11.34

    $23.63

    108%

    88%

    -7%

    Vir Biotechnology Inc.

    VIR Biotechnology

    $25.50

    $53.00

    108%

    75%

    -39%

    Dynavax Technologies Corp.

    DVAX Biotechnology

    $11.22

    $23.20

    107%

    100%

    -20%

    Thryv Holdings Inc.

    THRY Advertising/ Marketing Services

    $18.40

    $36.75

    100%

    100%

    -55%

    Artivion Inc.

    AORT Medical Specialties

    $12.93

    $23.13

    79%

    83%

    -36%

    Cytokinetics Inc.

    CYTK Pharmaceuticals

    $38.33

    $67.43

    76%

    100%

    -16%

    Harsco Corp.

    HSC Environmental Services

    $7.17

    $12.30

    72%

    80%

    -57%

    Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc.

    LGND Pharmaceuticals

    $64.80

    $110.83

    71%

    100%

    -35%

    Corcept Therapeutics Inc.

    CORT Pharmaceuticals

    $20.84

    $34.20

    64%

    80%

    5%

    Payoneer Global Inc.

    PAYO Misc. Commercial Services

    $5.70

    $9.33

    64%

    100%

    -22%

    Xencor Inc.

    XNCR Biotechnology

    $28.69

    $46.71

    63%

    93%

    -28%

    Pacira Biosciences Inc.

    PCRX Pharmaceuticals

    $45.50

    $72.90

    60%

    80%

    -24%

    BioLife Solutions Inc.

    BLFS Chemicals

    $19.72

    $31.38

    59%

    89%

    -47%

    Customers Bancorp Inc.

    CUBI Regional Banks

    $30.00

    $47.63

    59%

    75%

    -54%

    ModivCare Inc.

    MODV Other Transportation

    $92.22

    $145.83

    58%

    100%

    -38%

    Stride Inc.

    LRN Consumer Services

    $32.56

    $51.25

    57%

    100%

    -2%

    Ranger Oil Corp. Class A

    ROCC Oil and Gas Production

    $36.98

    $58.00

    57%

    100%

    37%

    Outfront Media Inc.

    OUT Real Estate Investment Trusts

    $17.59

    $27.00

    53%

    83%

    -34%

    Walker & Dunlop Inc.

    WD Finance/ Rental/ Leasing

    $82.22

    $125.20

    52%

    100%

    -46%

    Source: FactSet

    The Dow

    Here are all 30 components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ranked by how much analysts expect their prices to rise over the next year:

    Company

    Ticker

    Industry

    Closing price – Dec. 12

    Consensus price target

    Implied 12-month upside potential

    Share “buy” ratings

    Price change – 2022 through Dec. 12

    Salesforce Inc.

    CRM Software

    $133.11

    $195.59

    47%

    80%

    -48%

    Walt Disney Co.

    DIS Movies/ Entertainment

    $94.66

    $119.60

    26%

    82%

    -39%

    Apple Inc.

    AAPL Telecommunications Equipment

    $144.49

    $173.70

    20%

    74%

    -19%

    Verizon Communications Inc.

    VZ Telecommunications

    $37.95

    $44.60

    18%

    21%

    -27%

    Visa Inc. Class A

    V Misc.s Commercial Services

    $214.59

    $249.33

    16%

    86%

    -1%

    Microsoft Corp.

    MSFT Software

    $252.51

    $293.06

    16%

    91%

    -25%

    Chevron Corp.

    CVX Integrated Oil

    $169.75

    $191.20

    13%

    54%

    45%

    Cisco Systems Inc.

    CSCO Information Technology Services

    $49.30

    $53.76

    9%

    44%

    -22%

    UnitedHealth Group Inc.

    UNH Managed Health Care

    $545.86

    $593.30

    9%

    85%

    9%

    Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

    GS Investment Banks/ Brokers

    $363.18

    $392.63

    8%

    59%

    -5%

    Walmart Inc.

    WMT Specialty Stores

    $148.02

    $159.86

    8%

    72%

    2%

    JPMorgan Chase & Co.

    JPM Banks

    $134.21

    $143.84

    7%

    59%

    -15%

    Home Depot Inc.

    HD Home Improvement Chains

    $327.98

    $346.61

    6%

    61%

    -21%

    American Express Co.

    AXP Finance/ Rental/ Leasing

    $157.31

    $164.57

    5%

    43%

    -4%

    McDonald’s Corp.

    MCD Restaurants

    $276.62

    $288.67

    4%

    72%

    3%

    Johnson & Johnson

    JNJ Pharmaceuticals

    $177.84

    $185.35

    4%

    36%

    4%

    Coca-Cola Co.

    KO Beverages: Non-Alcoholic

    $63.97

    $66.62

    4%

    73%

    8%

    Boeing Co.

    BA Aerospace and Defense

    $186.27

    $192.69

    3%

    77%

    -7%

    Intel Corp.

    INTC Semiconductors

    $28.69

    $29.54

    3%

    13%

    -44%

    Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.

    WBA Drugstore Chains

    $41.06

    $42.24

    3%

    17%

    -21%

    Merck & Co. Inc.

    MRK Pharmaceuticals

    $108.97

    $110.62

    2%

    65%

    42%

    Caterpillar Inc.

    CAT Trucks/ Construction/ Farm Machinery

    $233.06

    $236.23

    1%

    41%

    13%

    Honeywell International Inc.

    HON Aerospace and Defense

    $214.50

    $217.35

    1%

    54%

    3%

    Nike Inc. Class B

    NKE Apparel/ Footwear

    $112.07

    $112.58

    0%

    64%

    -33%

    3M Co.

    MMM Industrial Conglomerates

    $126.85

    $127.30

    0%

    5%

    -29%

    Procter & Gamble Co.

    PG Household/ Personal Care

    $152.47

    $150.22

    -1%

    59%

    -7%

    Travelers Companies Inc.

    TRV Multi-Line Insurance

    $187.11

    $184.24

    -2%

    18%

    20%

    Amgen Inc.

    AMGN Biotechnology

    $276.78

    $264.79

    -4%

    24%

    23%

    Dow Inc.

    DOW Chemicals

    $51.11

    $48.73

    -5%

    15%

    -10%

    International Business Machines Corp.

    IBM Information Technology Services

    $149.21

    $140.29

    -6%

    33%

    12%

    Source: FactSet

    Don’t miss: 10 Dividend Aristocrat stocks expected by analysts to rise up to 54% in 2023

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  • Oracle’s Cloud Business Is Still Growing

    Oracle’s Cloud Business Is Still Growing

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    Oracle


    shares were moving higher late Monday after the company posted better-than-expected financial results for its latest quarter. The enterprise software giant continued to see success in shifting more of its business to the cloud during the period.

    “Simply put, we had an outstanding quarter,” Oracle CEO Safra Catz said on a call with analysts. “More and more customers are recognizing our second generation infrastructure cloud as being better architected for higher performance, better security and unmatched reliability” than other cloud providers.

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  • Sinema ditches Democrats, but analysts say it’s no Senate earthquake, just a re-election gambit

    Sinema ditches Democrats, but analysts say it’s no Senate earthquake, just a re-election gambit

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    Sen. Kyrsten Sinema announced Friday that she’s leaving the Democratic Party to register as an independent.

    So what does that mean?

    The initial reaction from analysts is that the Arizona lawmaker’s move won’t shake up how the Senate functions that much, and that it has more to do with her possible 2024 campaign for re-election.

    “At this point, we don’t expect Sinema’s defection to formally change the balance of power in the Senate,” said Benjamin Salisbury, director of research at Height Capital Markets, in a note.

    “Two independents, Senators Angus King [of Maine] and Bernie Sanders [of Vermont], formally caucus with Democrats,” Salisbury noted. “While Sinema declined to say which party she would caucus with, she did say that the change would not change how she votes, and she plans to keep her committee assignments, which is an indication to us that she will keep her affiliation with Democrats. In our view, the move is more about positioning herself for a tough 2024 reelection.”

    Sinema, who has been criticized frequently by progressive Democrats for moves such as opposing changes to the so-called carried-interest loophole, was expected to face a challenge from the left in a Democratic primary. But as an independent, she can avoid a primary and focus on the general election in her battleground state.

    Her calculation is that “the progressive Democratic ‘brand’ won’t help her to reelection in Arizona, but centrists and some from each party will,” Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, wrote in a note. “So there’s no percentage in doing anything but emphasizing her independence, and this is a high-profile, direct, and effective way of doing it.”

    Haines said the senator’s move isn’t an earthquake for the Senate: “Sinema herself says it’s not so, that she’ll continue to do the job in the same way — and there’s no reason to dispute it.”

    He also wrote that the “basic result for 2023-24 is as it was before Sinema’s announcement: domestic gridlock, basic fiscal/government spending stability, and continued foreign policy unanimity, particularly on China and Ukraine.”

    The Biden White House offered a similar reaction on Friday, saying that Sinema’s decision to “register as an independent in Arizona does not change the new Democratic majority control of the Senate, and we have every reason to expect that we will continue to work successfully with her.”

    Sinema has voted with Democrats 97% of the time, according to Bloomberg Government data.

    Related: Mitch McConnell praises Kyrsten Sinema as ‘the most effective first-term senator’ he’s seen in his career

    And see: Republicans clinch slim majority in House, likely signaling 2023 gridlock ahead

    Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Sinema would keep her committee assignments.

    “I believe she’s a good and effective Senator and am looking forward to a productive session in the new Democratic majority Senate,” Schumer, a New York Democrat, also said. “We will maintain our new majority on committees, exercise our subpoena power, and be able to clear nominees without discharge votes.”

    For the past two years, Democrats have controlled the 50-50 Senate only because Vice President Kamala Harris can cast tiebreaking votes.

    Following Georgia Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock’s win on Tuesday over Republican challenger Herschel Walker in their closely watched runoff election, Democrats were expected to enjoy a 51-49 majority in the Senate.

    There’s talk that Sinema’s announcement on Friday may have changed that, but analysts such as Salisbury and Haines are pushing against that view.

    “Sinema’s defection is another sign of the tentative rise of overt bipartisanship in Congress,” Haines wrote. “There’s an increasing view that solving issues is what the vast majority of voters want, and some legislators seem prepared to risk the wrath of their party establishments to achieve it.”

    Most U.S. senators have been affiliated with a major political party, but more than 70 have been independents or represented a minor party, according to Senate records.

    Former Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut is a recent example of that group, as he started out as a Democrat, then became an independent but still caucused with his former party. That’s even as Democratic leaders criticized him for backing the late Republican John McCain in the 2008 presidential race.

    U.S. stocks 
    SPX,
    -0.73%

     
    DJIA,
    -0.90%

    traded mixed Friday and were on track for weekly losses.

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  • FTC sues to block Microsoft’s $69 billion acquisition of game giant Activision Blizzard

    FTC sues to block Microsoft’s $69 billion acquisition of game giant Activision Blizzard

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    The Federal Trade Commission on Thursday sued Microsoft Corp. to block its $69 billion deal to buy Activision Blizzard Inc.

    The acquisition, which would be Microsoft’s
    MSFT,
    +1.07%

    largest and the biggest ever in the video gaming industry, would “enable Microsoft to suppress competitors to its Xbox gaming consoles and its rapidly growing subscription content and cloud-gaming business,” the FTC claimed.

    “Microsoft has already shown that it can and will withhold content from its gaming rivals,” Holly Vedova, director of the FTC’s Bureau of Competition, said in a statement. “Today we seek to stop Microsoft from gaining control over a leading independent game studio and using it to harm competition in multiple dynamic and fast-growing gaming markets.”

    FTC members pointed to Microsoft’s record of “acquiring and using valuable gaming content to suppress competition from rival consoles,” including its acquisition of ZeniMax, parent company of Bethesda Softworks.

    Microsoft President Brad Smith indicated the software giant will fight the lawsuit. In a statement, he said Microsoft has “been committed since Day One to addressing competition concerns.”

    “While we believed in giving peace a chance, we have complete confidence in our case and welcome the opportunity to present our case in court,” Smith said.

    Activision CEO Bobby Kotick, in a statement, said the suit “sounds alarming, so I want to reinforce my confidence that this deal will close. The allegation that this deal is anti-competitive doesn’t align with the facts, and we believe we’ll win this challenge.”

    Still, In recent weeks Microsoft has taken steps to demonstrate to regulators its acquisition of Activision would not give it an unfair advantage in the gaming market. On Tuesday, Microsoft said it would bring the “Call of Duty” franchise to Nintendo Co.’s
    7974,
    -1.31%

    Switch, a rival of Microsoft Xbox, and Microsoft has said it would make Call of Duty available on rival Sony Group Corp.’s
    SONY,
    -0.06%

    PlayStation.

    “It’s a bad idea,” Geoffrey Manne, president of the International Center for Law and Economics, said of the FTC’s lawsuit vs. Microsoft. “There may be markets in which some activities of some of these large tech companies cause concerns, but when they are expanding into new markets or enhancing competition in markets where they aren’t leaders, we should be encouraging them, not threatening them with lawsuits.”

    The government’s action in administrative court marks the first serious regulatory threat to Microsoft’s business in more than two decades, when the Justice Department brought a landmark antitrust lawsuit against the software giant that took years and was settled in 2002. Since then, Microsoft had sidestepped antitrust scrutiny and Smith in particular has focused the glare on its tech rivals Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +2.24%
    ,
    Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +1.19%
    ,
    Alphabet Inc.’s
    GOOGL,
    -0.94%

     
    GOOG,
    -0.89%

    Google, and Facebook parent company Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    +1.26%
    .

    Read more: Microsoft’s shadowy presence in antitrust push is angering the rest of Big Tech

    Shares of Microsoft are up 1% in trading Thursday. Activision’s
    ATVI,
    -1.33%

    stock is down 1.5%.

    The FTC’s lawsuit comes the same day it is heading to court in San Jose, Calif., in what is expected to be a three-week trial to bloc Meta’s $300 million acquisition of VR fitness app maker Within.

    The trial is likely to showcase an intriguing look at the agency’s ability to stifle alleged anticompetitive conduct using largely untested legal theories at a time when Congress is sitting on tech antitrust legislation.

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  • This fund beats the S&P 500 by using just 75 of its components. Here’s how it works.

    This fund beats the S&P 500 by using just 75 of its components. Here’s how it works.

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    What worked well during the years-long bull market through 2021 — a focus on growth, regardless of price — has ground to a halt this year. The rebirth of the value style of investing — and modest valuations overall — has taken hold.

    The approach taken by the Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF has paid off through both bull and bear markets.

    Let’s begin with a 10-year chart comparing total returns with dividends reinvested for the Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF
    SPGP,
    +0.67%

    and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
    SPY,
    +0.78%
    ,
    which tracks the benchmark S&P 500:


    FactSet

    So far this year, SPGP is down 12%, while SPY is down 16%. But the long-term chart shows significant and consistent outperformance for SPGP, even during the bull market.

    The S&P 500 GARP Index

    GARP stands for “growth at a reasonable price.” SPGP tracks the S&P 500 GARP Index, which is reconstituted and rebalanced twice a year, on the third Fridays of June and December. The next change occurs Dec. 16.

    S&P Dow Jones Indices assigns a growth score to each component of the S&P 500 by averaging the three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earnings and sales per share.

    The top 150 components of the S&P 500 by growth score are eligible for inclusion in the GARP index. Those 150 are ranked by “quality/value composite score,” which is the average of these three ratios:

    • Financial leverage — total debt to book value.

    • Return on equity — trailing 12 months’ earnings per share divided by book value per share.

    • Earnings-to-price — 12 months’ earnings per share divided by the share price.

    The top 75 of the 150 by QV rankings are then included in the GARP index and weighted by the growth score, with portfolio weightings ranging from 0.5% to 5%.

    There is a weighting limitation of 40% to any one of the 11 S&P sectors.

    Addressing concentration risk

    The benchmark S&P 500 Index
    SPX,
    +0.75%

    is weighted by market capitalization, which means it is more heavily concentrated than you might expect — success is rewarded, with rising stocks more heavily weighted over time.

    That can backfire during a bear market, with Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +2.14%

    down 47% and Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    -0.34%

    down 51% this year, to name two prominent examples.

    Looking at the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
    SPY,
    +0.78%
    ,
    which is the first and largest exchange traded fund and tracks the benchmark index by holding all of its components, six companies (Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    +1.21%
    ,
    Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +1.24%
    ,
    Amazon, both common share classes of Alphabet Inc.
    GOOGL,
    -1.30%

     
    GOOG,
    -1.26%

    and Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
    BRK.B,
    +0.06%

    ) make up 19.2% of the portfolio.

    That percentage has come down this year, but a lot of risk remains concentrated in a handful of companies. (Apple alone makes up 6.4% of the SPY portfolio. Tesla is now the ninth-largest holding, making up 1.4% of the portfolio.)

    One way to address high concentration in an index fund is to use an equal-weighted approach, which Mark Hulbert recently discussed.

    For the Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF, the underlying index’s selection methodology has resulted in much less portfolio concentration than we see in SPY, with the top five holdings making up 10.9% of the portfolio.

    Here are the 10 largest holdings of SPGP:

    Company

    Ticker

    Share of portfolio

    Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

    REGN,
    +0.15%
    2.49%

    Cigna Corporation

    CI,
    +0.39%
    2.26%

    Everest Re Group, Ltd.

    RE,
    +0.24%
    2.21%

    Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated

    VRTX,
    +1.18%
    1.98%

    D.R. Horton, Inc.

    DHI,
    -0.39%
    1.97%

    Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.

    EXPD,
    +0.23%
    1.96%

    Incyte Corporation

    INCY,
    +0.10%
    1.92%

    Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

    GS,
    -0.51%
    1.83%

    Ebay Inc.

    EBAY,
    +1.67%
    1.81%

    Pfizer Inc.

    PFE,
    +3.07%
    1.73%

    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more information about any company, ETF or index in this article.

    You should also read Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    Don’t miss: 10 Dividend Aristocrat stocks expected by analysts to rise up to 54% in 2023

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  • German police arrest 25 on suspicion of an armed coup led by suspected far-right extremists

    German police arrest 25 on suspicion of an armed coup led by suspected far-right extremists

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    BERLIN (AP) — Thousands of police carried out a series of raids across much of Germany on Wednesday against suspected far-right extremists who allegedly sought to overthrow the state in an armed coup.

    Federal prosecutors said some 3,000 officers conducted searches at 130 sites in 11 of Germany’s 16 states against adherents of the so-called Reich Citizens movement. Some members of the grouping reject Germany’s postwar constitution and have called for the overthrow of the government.

    Justice Minister Marco Buschmann described the raids as an “anti-terrorism operation,” adding that the suspects may have planned an armed attack on institutions of the state.

    Prosecutors said 22 German citizens were detained on suspicion of “membership in a terrorist organization.” Three other people, including a Russian citizen, are suspected of supporting the organization, they said. A further 27 people are being investigated.

    Weekly Der Spiegel reported that locations searched include the barracks of Germany’s special forces unit KSK in the southwestern town of Calw. The unit has in the past been scrutinized over alleged far-right involvement by some soldiers.

    Federal prosecutors declined to confirm or deny that the barracks was searched.

    Along with detentions in Germany, prosecutors said that one person was detained in the Austrian town of Kitzbuehel and another in the Italian city of Perugia.

    Prosecutors said those detained are alleged to last year have formed a “terrorist organization with the goal of overturning the existing state order in Germany and replace it with their own form of state, which was already in the course of being founded.”

    The suspects were aware that their aim could only be achieved by military means and with force, prosecutors said.

    Some of the group’s members had made “concrete preparations” to storm Parliament with a small armed group, according to prosecutors. “The details (of this plan) still need to be investigated” to determine whether any of the suspects can be charged with treason, they said.

    The group is alleged to have believed in a “conglomerate of conspiracy theories consisting of narratives from the so-called Reich Citizens as well as QAnon ideology,” according to the statement. Prosecutors added that members of the group also believe Germany is ruled by a so-called ‘deep state;’ similar baseless claims about the United States were made by former President Donald Trump.

    Prosecutors identified the suspected ringleaders as Heinrich XIII P. R. and Ruediger v. P., in line with German privacy rules. Der Spiegel reported that the former was a well-known 71-year-old member of a minor German noble family, while the latter was a 69-year-old former paratrooper.

    Federal prosecutors said Heinrich XIII P. R., whom the group planned to install as Germany’s new leader, had contacted Russian officials with the aim of negotiating a new order in the country once the German government was overthrown. He was allegedly assisted in this by a Russian woman, Vitalia B.

    “According to current investigations there is no indication however that the persons contacted responded positively to his request,” prosecutors said.

    A further person detained by police Wednesday was identified by prosecutors as Birgit M.-W. Der Spiegel reported that the woman is a judge and former lawmaker with the far-right Alternative for Germany party.

    The party, known by its German acronym AfD, has increasingly come under scrutiny by German security services due to its ties with extremists. It declined to comment immediately on the report.

    Prosecutors said that apart from a council of leaders, or Rat, the group had tasked several members with the formation of an armed wing. Led by Ruediger v. P., the they planned to obtain weapons and conduct firearms training. It was unclear how far advanced these plans were.

    Germany’s chief federal prosecutor planned to make a statement on the case later Wednesday.

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  • S&P 500, Nasdaq post worst day in month after strong data fuels worry about Fed rate hikes

    S&P 500, Nasdaq post worst day in month after strong data fuels worry about Fed rate hikes

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    The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes recorded their worst day in almost a month on Monday, after a hotter-than-expected U.S. services-sector reading fueled concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to be even more aggressive in its inflation battle.

    How stocks traded
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
      DJIA,
      -0.26%

      finished down 482.78 points, or 1.4%, at 33,947.10.

    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      -1.79%

      ended 72.86 points lower, or 1.8%, at 3,998.84.

    • The Nasdaq Composite
      COMP,
      -11.01%

      closed down 221.56 points, or 1.9%, at 11,239.94.

    • Those were the largest declines for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite since Nov. 9, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Stocks finished mixed on Friday, although they clinched gains last week, following a robust November jobs report, which stoked fears that inflation might not be so easily defeated.

    What drove markets

    Strong wage growth numbers released Friday were followed up on Monday by a robust reading for the U.S. services sector — both of which helped to stoke fears that the Fed’s interest-rate hikes, along with the central bank’s modest balance-sheet unwind, haven’t had much of an impact on the tight labor market.

    The ISM barometer of U.S. business conditions in the service sector came in stronger than expected, rising to 56.5% in November, a healthy showing that signals the U.S. economy is still expanding at a steady pace.

    “If nothing else, the ISM services report is being interpreted as very strong, and thus the economy is overheating and that means more Fed tightening,” said Will Compernolle, a senior economist at FHN Financial in New York. “Consumer resilience has proven to be more intense than I would have expected. In the two most interest-rate sensitive sectors — housing and autos — tightening has channeled into markets in meaningful ways.”

    But there has been so much pent-up demand, that higher interest rates haven’t been cooling overall spending as much as the Fed would like because companies are still having to fill a backlog of orders, he said via phone.

    In other economic data, the final November S&P Global U.S. services PMI edged up to 46.2 from 46.1, but remained in contractionary territory.

    November jobs data released on Friday showed average hourly wages grew over the past year by more than 5% as of November, beating economists’ expectations and stoking concerns that robust wage growth would continue to fuel inflation, market strategists said.

    Worries about a more-aggressive Fed also helped to drive Treasury yields higher, adding to the pressure on stocks. The yield on the 10-year note rose 9.6 basis points to 3.6% on Monday. Treasury yields move inversely to prices, and yields had fallen sharply over the past month, driven by shifting expectations about the pace of Fed rate hikes.

    Monday’s ISM services figure “surprised to the upside, suggesting that the economy is still running above its long-run sustainable path and that the Fed is going to have to slow the economy more than expected in 2023,” Bill Adams, the Dallas-based chief economist for Comerica Inc. CMA, said via phone.

    In other markets news, signs that China’s government is easing its COVID restrictions helped Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index
    HSI,
    +4.51%

    finish with a 4.5% gain.

    See also: Chinese ADRs and casino operators rally on signs of easing COVID

    Meanwhile, oil futures ended lower on Monday, a day after Sunday’s decision by OPEC and its allies to keep production quotas unchanged.

    Falling equity prices helped drive the CBOE Volatility Index
    VIX,
    +8.87%
    ,
    also known as the VIX, back above 20 on Monday. The volatility gauge had fallen sharply in recent weeks as stocks rallied, potentially signaling complacency that could ultimately hurt stocks, said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, in a note to clients.

    Companies in focus

    –Jamie Chisholm contributed reporting to this article.

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  • ‘Gaslighters have two signature moves’: Are you being gaslighted at work? Here’s how to recognize the signs.

    ‘Gaslighters have two signature moves’: Are you being gaslighted at work? Here’s how to recognize the signs.

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    Are you less happy at work since you befriended that new recruit? Have they told you stories about how colleagues have constantly undermined them? Or do you have a boss who excludes you from key meetings — and then asks why you did not attend a meeting even though you are pretty sure you were not invited to begin with? If so, you may be working with a gaslighter.

    Gaslighters, as the name suggests, cast themselves in a positive light — friend or confidante who is here to help — but actually operate much more effectively in the shadows. Merriam-Webster named “gaslighting” the word of the year. Searches for the word on merriam-webster.com surged 1,740% in 2022 over the prior year year, despite there not being an event that the publisher — known for its dictionaries — could point to as a cause of the spike.

    It defines gaslighting as “psychological manipulation of a person usually over an extended period of time that causes the victim to question the validity of their own thoughts, perception of reality, or memories and typically leads to confusion, loss of confidence and self-esteem, uncertainty of one’s emotional or mental stability, and a dependency on the perpetrator.”

    Perhaps the reasons were more personal — or professional — than political. My social media feed is now full of thought pieces on how to spot one of these saboteurs. The comments sections read like the show notes of a True Crime podcast — gruesome yet hard to turn away from. 

    The term was coined in a 1938 play, “Gas Light,” a psychological thriller set in Victorian London and written by Patrick Hamilton.

    The term was further popularized after George Cukor’s 1944 film, “Gaslight,” based on the play, in which Gregory (Charles Boyer) tries to convince his wife Paula (Ingrid Bergman) that she has lost her reason. While he turns on the lights in the attic while searching for hidden jewels, the gaslight flickers in the rest of the house. He tells Paula that she is merely imagining the dimming of the lights.

    The workplace is fertile ground for such behavior, given what’s at stake: money, power, status, promotion, rivalry and the intrigue that often comes with office politics. 

    I’m in the business of helping people work out their conflicts at work. None of this surprises me. In fact, I dedicated a whole chapter in my book, “Jerks at Work,” to gaslighters. 

    ‘For gaslighters, slow and steady wins the race, and the best ones make friends with their victims first.’

    What has surprised me is how wide-ranging the definition of “gaslighting” has become. Everything from “not respecting personal boundaries” to “talking so much shit about me I couldn’t get hired for two years” seems to fall under the umbrella. 

    What I’ve learned from my doom scrolling is that the word “gaslighter” — probably the worst name to bestow on a colleague or boss — seems to refer to anyone who’s done a whole bunch of bad things to us at work, especially things that involve humiliation. 

    So what really is a gaslighter, and why is it important to distinguish one from, say, a demeaning boss with a chip on their shoulder and a penchant for public shaming?

    If we stick to the clinical definition, gaslighters have two signature moves: They lie with the intent of creating a false reality, and they cut off their victims socially. 

    They position themselves as both savior and underminer, creating a negative and fearful atmosphere, spreading gossip and taking credit for other people’s work. They are often jealous and resentful, and aim to undercut others in order to further their own position.

    You may also be an unwitting pawn in the gaslighting of another colleague. The gaslighter might try to convince you that Johnny is trying to steal your leadership role on a project, and encourage you to freeze him out in the cafeteria at lunch time, or simply be extra wary about sharing important information.

    For gaslighters, slow and steady wins the race, and the best ones make friends with their victims first. For this reason, it could also be considered a form of workplace harassment.

    They often flatter them, make them feel special. Others create a fear of speaking up in their victims by making their position at work seem more precarious than it is. And the lies are complex, coming at you in layers. It takes a long time to realize your status as a victim of gaslighting, and social isolation is a necessary part of this process. 

    ‘It takes a long time to realize your status as a victim of gaslighting, and social isolation is a necessary part of this process.’

    But there’s a difference between an annoying coworker or micromanaging boss, and a gaslighter, who lies and conspires to undermine your position. “The gaslighter doesn’t want you to improve or succeed — they’re out to sabotage you,” according to the careers website Monster.com. “They will accuse you of being confused or mistaken, or that you took something they said the wrong way because you are insecure. They might even manipulate paper trails to “prove” they are right.”

    Examples cited by Monster.com: “You know you turned in a project, but the gaslighter insists you never gave it to them. You can tell someone has been in your space, moving things around, or even on your computer, but you don’t have proof. You are the only one not included in a team email or meeting invite, or intentionally kept out of the loop. Then when you don’t respond or show up, you are reprimanded.”

    Knowing this, what can you do to prevent yourself from becoming a target? First, recognize that gaslighters don’t wear their strategy on their sleeve. Flattery, making you feel like you’re a part of a special club, or questioning your expertise are not things that raise gaslighting alarm bells. 

    Rather than looking out for mean behavior by a boss or coworker, look out for signs of social isolation. A boss who wants to cut you off from coworkers and other leaders should raise red flags, even if the reason is that “you’re better than them.” 

    Second, recognize that lie detection is a precarious — and from a scientific perspective, almost impossible — business. Don’t try to become a lie detector, instead take notes, so you can put your “gaslighter” on notice that you are wise to their tactics. You can also use the notes as evidence if you decide to later raise the situation with Human Resources. 

    Here are some ways to beat the gaslighter: Send emails with “a summary of today’s meeting” so you can document the origin of ideas and make sure they don’t steal credit from you. Furthermore, document things that happened in person, and share it with your would-be gaslighter. And speak up at meetings. Don’t allow yourself to be browbeaten into submission. 

    The more you document, the more difficult it will be to be victimized. But a word of warning: Don’t try to confront gaslighters — instead, go to your social network to build your reality back up. Trying to beat these folks at their own game is a losing strategy. But these small things, done early in a working relationship, can work wonders. 

    Tessa West is a New York University social psychology professor with a particular interest in workplace behavior, and author of “Jerks at Work: Toxic Coworkers and What to Do About Them.

    Related stories:

    ‘We’re like rats in a cage’: Sick and tired of their jobs, American workers strive to regain their agency, their time — and their sanity

    People are seeking a genuine connection with their colleagues’ — one that goes beyond ‘Hollywood Squares’ Zoom meetings. Not all workers are happy with remote work.

    The backlash to quiet quitting smacks of another attempt by the ruling class to get workers back under their thumbs:’ Am I wrong?

    We want to hear from readers who have stories to share about the effects of increasing costs and a changing economy. If you’d like to share your experience, write to readerstories@marketwatch.com. Please include your name and the best way to reach you. A reporter may be in touch.

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  • Apple, Alibaba, NIO, and More Stock Market Movers Monday

    Apple, Alibaba, NIO, and More Stock Market Movers Monday

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    Stock futures traded lower Monday as investors remained keyed on interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve and as a surge in China stocks over a loosening of Covid-19 restrictions in the country failed to boost U.S. equities.

    Here are some stocks that could make moves Monday:

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  • Inflation and credit-card debt are on the rise, despite a strong job market. Tell us how the economy is affecting you.

    Inflation and credit-card debt are on the rise, despite a strong job market. Tell us how the economy is affecting you.

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    We want to hear from readers who have stories to share about the effects of increasing costs and a changing economy. If you’d like to share your experience, write to readerstories@marketwatch.com. Please include your name and the best way to reach you. A reporter may be in touch.

    For many people living in the U.S., these are tough — and confusing — times.

    On Friday, the Labor Department reported 263,000 new jobs in November, while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%. Layoffs remain low, despite mass job cuts in the tech sector. Average hourly wages have also risen 5.1% in the past year, but still lag behind inflation for many workers. And there were 10.3 million job openings in October — slightly down from the previous month’s 10.7 million. 

    Some people might see the latest economic data as both challenging and confusing.

    After all, the cost of living rose 7.7% on the year in October. The once red-hot housing market is finally cooling, thanks to mortgage rates that have more than doubled over the last year amid the Federal Reserve’s attempts to rein in inflation, and rents, while moderating, have surged from pre-pandemic levels. Borrowing money to cover increased precarity is becoming more expensive too, with the average credit-card APR at 19.2% as of Nov. 30, according to Bankrate.

    ‘It’s just mind-boggling, the disconnect that we’ve seen.’

    Given all the conflicting signals, economists say it can be difficult for consumers to know exactly how to feel about the economy right now. “It’s not new, this disparity between the actual facts on the ground about what’s going on in the economy and the sentiment,” said Heidi Shierholz, president of the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank. 

    “I remember this summer it was just unambiguously the strongest jobs recovery we’ve had in decades,” she added. “There’s just absolutely zero chance that we were in a recession — not only were we not in a recession, we were in just an extraordinarily fast recovery — and the polling, a huge share of people actually thought we were in a recession. It’s just mind-boggling, the disconnect that we’ve seen.”

    Still, the fact that inflation is eating into people’s savings — and that essential goods like food, energy and housing have spiked in cost — is bound to make many people unhappy. 

    Struggling to pay for rent and food

    “Going into the pandemic, more than seven out of every 10 extremely low-income renters were already spending more than half of their income on rent. And then the pandemic hits; we saw a lot of low-wage workers lose their jobs and see an income decline,” said Andrew Aurand, vice president for research at the National Low Income Housing Coalition. “Then in 2021, we see this huge spike in prices. For a variety of reasons, they’ve struggled for a long time, and since the pandemic, it’s gotten even worse.”

    Moderate-income Americans are struggling too. Maybe you can’t afford your favorite family meals, as the price of grocery store and supermarket purchases has jumped by 12.4% from last year. Or maybe you’re putting off a trip to see family this holiday season thanks to the higher cost of airfare, or you’re worried about losing your job as some business leaders warn of a recession. Perhaps you’re forced to rely on credit cards and personal loans, as credit-card debt is up 15% from a year ago.

    MarketWatch has chronicled many of these changes, detailing renters’ frustrations, families’ tough choices at the grocery store, and the reality faced by would-be home buyers sidelined by higher rates and dwindling affordability. 

    But we would like your help telling an ongoing story about the American economy, centering the experiences of everyday people. Our readers know better than anyone about how today’s economic conditions have impacted their daily lives.

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  • Appeals court ends special-master review of Trump documents, in win for Justice Department

    Appeals court ends special-master review of Trump documents, in win for Justice Department

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    WASHINGTON — A federal appeals court on Thursday ended an independent review of documents seized from former President Donald Trump’s Florida estate, removing a hurdle the Justice Department said had delayed its criminal investigation into the retention of top-secret government information.

    The decision by the three-judge panel represents a significant win for federal prosecutors, clearing the way for them to use as part of their investigation the entire tranche of documents seized during an Aug. 8 FBI search of Mar-a-Lag o. It also amounts to a sharp repudiation of arguments by Trump’s lawyers, who for months had said that the former president was entitled to have a so-called “special master” conduct a neutral review of the thousands of documents taken from the property.

    The ruling from the Atlanta-based U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit had been expected given the skeptical questions the judges directed at a Trump lawyer during arguments last week, and because two of the three judges on the panel had already ruled in favor of the Justice Department in an earlier dispute over the special master.

    The special master litigation has played out alongside an ongoing investigation examining the potential criminal mishandling of national defense information as well as efforts to possibly obstruct that probe. Attorney General Merrick Garland last month appointed Jack Smith, a veteran public corruption prosecutor, to serve as special counsel overseeing that investigation.

    It remains unclear how much longer the investigation will last, or who, if anyone, might be charged. But the probe has shown signs of intensifying, with investigators questioning multiple Trump associates about the documents and granting one key ally immunity to ensure his testimony before a federal grand jury. And the appeals court decision is likely to speed the investigation along by cutting short the outside review of the records.

    The conflict over the special master began just weeks after the FBI’s search, when Trump sued in federal court in Florida seeking the appointment of an independent arbiter to review the roughly 13,000 documents the Justice Department says were taken from the home.

    A federal judge, Aileen Cannon, granted the Trump team’s request, naming veteran Brooklyn judge Raymond Dearie to serve as special master and tasking him with reviewing the seized records and filtering out from the criminal investigation any documents that might be covered by claims of executive privilege or attorney-client privilege.

    She also barred the Justice Department from using in its criminal investigation any of the seized records, including the roughly 100 with classification markings, until Dearie completed his work.

    The Justice Department objected to the appointment, saying it was an unnecessary hindrance to its criminal investigation and saying Trump had no credible basis to invoke either attorney-client privilege or executive privilege to shield the records from investigators.

    It sought, as a first step, to regain access to the classified documents. A federal appeals panel sided with prosecutors in September, permitting the Justice Department to resume its review of the documents with classification markings.

    The department also pressed for access to the much larger trove of unclassified documents, saying such records could contain important evidence for their investigation.

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  • Senate passes bill to prevent rail strike, rejects measure providing paid sick leave

    Senate passes bill to prevent rail strike, rejects measure providing paid sick leave

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    The U.S. Senate on Thursday voted 80-15 in favor of a bill that would prevent a rail strike by imposing a deal on freight-rail workers, after rejecting a separate House-passed measure that would require rail companies to provide those workers with seven days of paid sick leave per year.

    The vote for the bill imposing a deal keeps Washington on track to block a strike, as the House of Representatives passed it Wednesday. President Joe Biden is expected to sign the legislation into law given that he called on Monday for Congress to act.

    Business groups have been warning that even a short-term strike would have a tremendous impact and cause economic pain.

    The deal that would be imposed on rail employees includes a 24% increase in wages from 2020 through 2024, but workers have remained concerned about a lack of paid sick time.

    In the vote on sick leave, there were 52 senators in favor, while 43 were opposed, and 60 votes for it were needed. A half dozen Republican senators were in favor, while Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia was the only Democrat in opposition.

    “While I am sympathetic to the concerns union members have raised, I do not believe it is the role of Congress to renegotiate a collective bargaining agreement that has already been negotiated,” Manchin said in a statement

    Earlier Thursday, the Senate also voted against an amendment from Republican senators that aimed to deliver a cooling-off period so talks between rail companies and their workers could continue.

    Railroad operators’ stocks finished with gains Tuesday as traders reacted to Washington’s moves to prevent a strike, but Norfolk Southern Corp.
    NSC,
    -0.05%
    ,
     CSX Corp. 
    CSX,
    -0.03%

    and Union Pacific Corp.
    UNP,
    -0.69%

    all lost ground Thursday as the broad market
    SPX,
    -0.09%

    DJIA,
    -0.56%

    closed mostly lower.

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  • This 82-year-old retiree makes makes moose calls

    This 82-year-old retiree makes makes moose calls

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    Butch Phillips, an 82-year-old member of the Penobscot Nation, etches 18-inch long moose call horns from birch bark he harvests off tribal land. While some moose calls he gives away to local hunters, others have sold at auction for as much as $3,200 and some sit in museums.

    “It’s very exciting calling a moose. You can hear them coming. Snuffing and grunting,” said Phillips, who hunts a moose each year on tribal land, the largest being 940 pounds. He also sometimes calls moose just to watch them and study them.

    Based in Milford, Maine, Phillips has been making the moose calls, which are hornlike devices used to attract moose when hunting, for about 30 years with a wooden-handled knife his late wife bought him. He has more orders than he can keep up with, due in part to some local media coverage and word-of-mouth. He hopes to pass down his skills to his grown sons.

    Phillips retired 31 years ago from telecommunications jobs with NYMEX and AT&T
    T,
    -0.49%
    ,
    and he’s been filling his time with his etching talents ever since.

    “I just can’t imagine being retired with nothing to do. I think I’d go crazy,” Phillips said.

    Plus, in the winter, etching gives him something productive to do to pass time.

    “There’s not a lot you can do outdoors. It gives me something to do rather than just sitting around. Can you imagine doing that for 31 years?” Phillips said.

    Phillips used to make moose calls by peeling a piece of bark off a tree and using it for the day and tossing it aside. Then he started tying spruce roots around the bark to help keep the shape and use it again and again. Hunters started asking for his moose calls and his work spread by word-of-mouth.

    Phillips in a 14-foot birch bark canoe that he built.


    Credit: Butch Phillips

    “Some hunters will use a roadside cone to call a moose. I wanted to do it the traditional way. A large majority of native hunters use a birch bark call,” Phillips said.

    He uses a variety of tools, but the knife given to him by his late wife is his most treasured tool.

    “The blade’s pretty much worn down. But I treasure it. It’s very special,” Phillips said.

    As he became more adept at making moose calls, Phillips started making more permanent models, refining the workmanship and using thicker bark that was suitable for etching.

    “I decided to do etching like they did in the old days. Everything they used to make, they carved. My artwork evolved. I try to keep the older designs alive. I’ve taken symbols like the Wabanaki symbol and incorporated them into the art to keep them alive. I use plants and trees as fillers,” Phillips said.

    “In most of my art work, I try to combine people, plants and animals. We always memorialize our ancestors. And plants and animals are what we owe gratitude to for keeping us alive,” Phillips said. “In our prayers, we always give thanks to ancestors, plants and animals. There’s a theme.”

    Phillips said he writes up explanations of the symbols so each buyer knows what the designs mean. Diamond shapes, for example, represent wigwams, he said. More often these days his buyers are collectors rather than moose hunters.

    Phillips is an expert in his materials.

    “All bark is not created equal. There’s curly bark, thick, thin, white, dark, gray. I use bark that is thick and pliable and doesn’t separate into layers,” Phillips said.

    With winter bark, it’s brown with a thick rind on the inside. He has to take it off the tree carefully and scrape away the rind to make designs. He can approach the etching in two ways – either scraping away the entire background and leaving just a thin image, or carve images onto rind. Summer bark has no rind and is just yellow.

    His museum-quality pieces have used winter bark with an elaborate scraping process that leaves thin details for designs. Those are the toughest to do, he said.

    Phillips approaches each moose call with an open mind and has no preconceived idea of what the designs will be. The bark just speaks to him.

    “I never plan on paper what it’s going to look like. Most of the time I have no idea until it evolves,” Phillips said.

    In the center of the device, he often puts an image of a moose or a moose head. For special orders, he might be asked to incorporate an image of a hawk or favorite dog or even a woodpecker, in one case. He adds touches like a flower, acorns or moose tracks to fill in blank areas.

    “Each side is balanced because nature is balanced,” Phillips said. “Every design is unique.”

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  • Okta CEO promises profit for all of next year — ‘The problem was never that we didn’t have talented sales people’

    Okta CEO promises profit for all of next year — ‘The problem was never that we didn’t have talented sales people’

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    Okta Inc. executives on Wednesday said they will report an adjusted profit in the fourth quarter and, in a surprise, predicted profitability for all of next fiscal year, trumping profit concerns stemming from recent sales-operation issues.

    For the fourth quarter, Okta
    OKTA,
    +4.04%

    guided for adjusted earnings of 9 cents to 10 cents a share on revenue of $488 million to $490 million. Analysts, on average, were expecting an adjusted loss of 12 cents a share on sales of $488.3 million, according to FactSet.

    In a surprise announcement during the conference call, Chief Financial Officer Brett Tighe revealed a full forecast for fiscal 2024 as well. Most software companies shy away from such practices amid uncertainty about macroeconomic conditions. He said Okta executives are aiming for adjusted profits for the full year on revenue of $2.13 billion to $2.15 billion. Analysts on average expected adjusted losses of 30 cents a share on sales of $2.3 billion, beating profit projections widely but also missing sales expectations by more than $100 million.

    Shares rallied as much as 18% in after-hours trading immediately following the release of the results, but those gains noticeably pared back to a steady 12% level after Tighe announced the outlook to analysts on the call. They have fallen 76% so far this year, compared with a 27% decline by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index
    COMP,
    +4.41%
    .

    In an exclusive interview with MarketWatch ahead of the company’s conference call, Okta Chief Executive and co-founder Todd McKinnon said the company is not providing any forecasts past 2024 because of uncertainty in the macro environment.

    “We’re thinking a pretty conservative assumption that the macro is going to get worse before it gets better, so that’s definitely factored into the guide,” McKinnon told MarketWatch.

    On a more positive note, McKinnon said sales-rep attrition has been the lowest it has been in the past several quarters, following a spike last quarter. Okta also announced that Susan St. Ledger, the president of worldwide field operations, is retiring and McKinnon will take over her duties on an interim basis.

    “What we’ve done over the last six months is what a lot of companies are doing, slowing hiring, re-evaluating real estate, doubling down on the things we know are high value. And some of the things that are maybe less value we’re doing less of, so that’s where we see the profitability come from,” McKinnon told MarketWatch.

    Much of that comes from addressing the company’s struggle in combining Okta’s salesforce with sales reps acquired in the May 2021 acquisition of identity-platform Auth0 (pronounced “Auth Zero”), which is more focused on direct-to-user sales than Okta’s corporate focus.

    “The problem was never that we didn’t have talented sales people,” McKinnon told MarketWatch. “The problem is that we didn’t enable them and clarify things with them.”

    In-depth: Okta CEO says ‘short-term challenges’ resulted in workers leaving at a higher rate

    “We still have work to do,” McKinnon said. “We don’t think we’ve solved it after one quarter of a positive trend but I do think it’s progress.”

    “The biggest factor: We’ve really done a much better job clarifying the products and the positioning and saying we have two clouds: We have Workforce Identity Cloud and Customer Identity Cloud and it’s very clear what to sell when,” he said.

    Okta reported a third-quarter loss of $208.9 million, or $1.32 a share, compared with a loss of $221.3 million, or $1.44 a share, in the year-ago period. After adjusting for stock-based compensation expenses and other items, the company reported break-even results on a per-share basis, compared with a loss of 7 cents a share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $481.4 million from $350.7 million in the year-ago quarter.

    Analysts had forecast an adjusted loss of 24 cents a share on revenue of $465.4 million, based on the company’s forecast for a loss of 24 cents to 25 cents a share on sales of $463 million to $465 million.

    For the current year, Okta forecast an adjusted loss of 27 cents to 26 cents a share on revenue of about $1.84 billion, compared with the Street’s forecast of 73 cents a share on revenue of $1.82 billion.

    So far in November, cloud software stocks have been getting trashed. While the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +3.09%

    has gained 5.4%, and the Nasdaq has advanced 4.4%, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF
    IGV,
    +4.39%

    has risen 1.6%, the Global X Cloud Computing ETF
    CLOU,
    +6.00%

    has ticked up 0.8%, the First Trust Cloud Computing ETF
    SKYY,
    +4.54%

    has fallen 2%, and the WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund
    WCLD,
    +4.99%

    has dropped 6.9%.

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  • 20 dividend stocks with high yields that have become more attractive right now

    20 dividend stocks with high yields that have become more attractive right now

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    Income-seeking investors are looking at an opportunity to scoop up shares of real estate investment trusts. Stocks in that asset class have become more attractive as prices have fallen and cash flow is improving.

    Below is a broad screen of REITs that have high dividend yields and are also expected to generate enough excess cash in 2023 to enable increases in dividend payouts.

    REIT prices may turn a corner in 2023

    REITs distribute most of their income to shareholders to maintain their tax-advantaged status. But the group is cyclical, with pressure on share prices when interest rates rise, as they have this year at an unprecedented scale. A slowing growth rate for the group may have also placed a drag on the stocks.

    And now, with talk that the Federal Reserve may begin to temper its cycle of interest-rate increases, we may be nearing the time when REIT prices rise in anticipation of an eventual decline in interest rates. The market always looks ahead, which means long-term investors who have been waiting on the sidelines to buy higher-yielding income-oriented investments may have to make a move soon.

    During an interview on Nov 28, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, discussed the central bank’s cycle of interest-rate increases meant to reduce inflation.

    When asked about the potential timing of the Fed’s “terminal rate” (the peak federal funds rate for this cycle), Bullard said: “Generally speaking, I have advocated that sooner is better, that you do want to get to the right level of the policy rate for the current data and the current situation.”

    Fed’s Bullard says in MarketWatch interview that markets are underpricing the chance of still-higher rates

    In August we published this guide to investing in REITs for income. Since the data for that article was pulled on Aug. 24, the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.29%

    has declined 4% (despite a 10% rally from its 2022 closing low on Oct. 12), but the benchmark index’s real estate sector has declined 13%.

    REITs can be placed broadly into two categories. Mortgage REITs lend money to commercial or residential borrowers and/or invest in mortgage-backed securities, while equity REITs own property and lease it out.

    The pressure on share prices can be greater for mortgage REITs, because the mortgage-lending business slows as interest rates rise. In this article we are focusing on equity REITs.

    Industry numbers

    The National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (Nareit) reported that third-quarter funds from operations (FFO) for U.S.-listed equity REITs were up 14% from a year earlier. To put that number in context, the year-over-year growth rate of quarterly FFO has been slowing — it was 35% a year ago. And the third-quarter FFO increase compares to a 23% increase in earnings per share for the S&P 500 from a year earlier, according to FactSet.

    The NAREIT report breaks out numbers for 12 categories of equity REITs, and there is great variance in the growth numbers, as you can see here.

    FFO is a non-GAAP measure that is commonly used to gauge REITs’ capacity for paying dividends. It adds amortization and depreciation (noncash items) back to earnings, while excluding gains on the sale of property. Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) goes further, netting out expected capital expenditures to maintain the quality of property investments.

    The slowing FFO growth numbers point to the importance of looking at REITs individually, to see if expected cash flow is sufficient to cover dividend payments.

    Screen of high-yielding equity REITs

    For 2022 through Nov. 28, the S&P 500 has declined 17%, while the real estate sector has fallen 27%, excluding dividends.

    Over the very long term, through interest-rate cycles and the liquidity-driven bull market that ended this year, equity REITs have fared well, with an average annual return of 9.3% for 20 years, compared to an average return of 9.6% for the S&P 500, both with dividends reinvested, according to FactSet.

    This performance might surprise some investors, when considering the REITs’ income focus and the S&P 500’s heavy weighting for rapidly growing technology companies.

    For a broad screen of equity REITs, we began with the Russell 3000 Index
    RUA,
    -0.04%
    ,
    which represents 98% of U.S. companies by market capitalization.

    We then narrowed the list to 119 equity REITs that are followed by at least five analysts covered by FactSet for which AFFO estimates are available.

    If we divide the expected 2023 AFFO by the current share price, we have an estimated AFFO yield, which can be compared with the current dividend yield to see if there is expected “headroom” for dividend increases.

    For example, if we look at Vornado Realty Trust
    VNO,
    +1.03%
    ,
    the current dividend yield is 8.56%. Based on the consensus 2023 AFFO estimate among analysts polled by FactSet, the expected AFFO yield is only 7.25%. This doesn’t mean that Vornado will cut its dividend and it doesn’t even mean the company won’t raise its payout next year. But it might make it less likely to do so.

    Among the 119 equity REITs, 104 have expected 2023 AFFO headroom of at least 1.00%.

    Here are the 20 equity REITs from our screen with the highest current dividend yields that have at least 1% expected AFFO headroom:

    Company

    Ticker

    Dividend yield

    Estimated 2023 AFFO yield

    Estimated “headroom”

    Market cap. ($mil)

    Main concentration

    Brandywine Realty Trust

    BDN,
    +2.12%
    11.52%

    12.82%

    1.30%

    $1,132

    Offices

    Sabra Health Care REIT Inc.

    SBRA,
    +2.41%
    9.70%

    12.04%

    2.34%

    $2,857

    Health care

    Medical Properties Trust Inc.

    MPW,
    +2.53%
    9.18%

    11.46%

    2.29%

    $7,559

    Health care

    SL Green Realty Corp.

    SLG,
    +2.25%
    9.16%

    10.43%

    1.28%

    $2,619

    Offices

    Hudson Pacific Properties Inc.

    HPP,
    +1.41%
    9.12%

    12.69%

    3.57%

    $1,546

    Offices

    Omega Healthcare Investors Inc.

    OHI,
    +1.23%
    9.05%

    10.13%

    1.08%

    $6,936

    Health care

    Global Medical REIT Inc.

    GMRE,
    +2.55%
    8.75%

    10.59%

    1.84%

    $629

    Health care

    Uniti Group Inc.

    UNIT,
    +0.55%
    8.30%

    25.00%

    16.70%

    $1,715

    Communications infrastructure

    EPR Properties

    EPR,
    +0.86%
    8.19%

    12.24%

    4.05%

    $3,023

    Leisure properties

    CTO Realty Growth Inc.

    CTO,
    +2.22%
    7.51%

    9.34%

    1.83%

    $381

    Retail

    Highwoods Properties Inc.

    HIW,
    +0.99%
    6.95%

    8.82%

    1.86%

    $3,025

    Offices

    National Health Investors Inc.

    NHI,
    +2.59%
    6.75%

    8.32%

    1.57%

    $2,313

    Senior housing

    Douglas Emmett Inc.

    DEI,
    +0.87%
    6.74%

    10.30%

    3.55%

    $2,920

    Offices

    Outfront Media Inc.

    OUT,
    +0.89%
    6.68%

    11.74%

    5.06%

    $2,950

    Billboards

    Spirit Realty Capital Inc.

    SRC,
    +1.15%
    6.62%

    9.07%

    2.45%

    $5,595

    Retail

    Broadstone Net Lease Inc.

    BNL,
    -0.30%
    6.61%

    8.70%

    2.08%

    $2,879

    Industial

    Armada Hoffler Properties Inc.

    AHH,
    +0.00%
    6.38%

    7.78%

    1.41%

    $807

    Offices

    Innovative Industrial Properties Inc.

    IIPR,
    +1.42%
    6.24%

    7.53%

    1.29%

    $3,226

    Health care

    Simon Property Group Inc.

    SPG,
    +1.03%
    6.22%

    9.55%

    3.33%

    $37,847

    Retail

    LTC Properties Inc.

    LTC,
    +1.42%
    5.99%

    7.60%

    1.60%

    $1,541

    Senior housing

    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more about each company. You should read Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    The list includes each REIT’s main property investment type. However, many REITs are highly diversified. The simplified categories on the table may not cover all of their investment properties.

    Knowing what a REIT invests in is part of the research you should do on your own before buying any individual stock. For arbitrary examples, some investors may wish to steer clear of exposure to certain areas of retail or hotels, or they may favor health-care properties.

    Largest REITs

    Several of the REITs that passed the screen have relatively small market capitalizations. You might be curious to see how the most widely held REITs fared in the screen. So here’s another list of the 20 largest U.S. REITs among the 119 that passed the first cut, sorted by market cap as of Nov. 28:

    Company

    Ticker

    Dividend yield

    Estimated 2023 AFFO yield

    Estimated “headroom”

    Market cap. ($mil)

    Main concentration

    Prologis Inc.

    PLD,
    +1.63%
    2.84%

    4.36%

    1.52%

    $102,886

    Warehouses and logistics

    American Tower Corp.

    AMT,
    +0.75%
    2.66%

    4.82%

    2.16%

    $99,593

    Communications infrastructure

    Equinix Inc.

    EQIX,
    +0.80%
    1.87%

    4.79%

    2.91%

    $61,317

    Data centers

    Crown Castle Inc.

    CCI,
    +0.93%
    4.55%

    5.42%

    0.86%

    $59,553

    Wireless Infrastructure

    Public Storage

    PSA,
    +0.19%
    2.77%

    5.35%

    2.57%

    $50,680

    Self-storage

    Realty Income Corp.

    O,
    +0.72%
    4.82%

    6.46%

    1.64%

    $38,720

    Retail

    Simon Property Group Inc.

    SPG,
    +1.03%
    6.22%

    9.55%

    3.33%

    $37,847

    Retail

    VICI Properties Inc.

    VICI,
    +0.81%
    4.69%

    6.21%

    1.52%

    $32,013

    Leisure properties

    SBA Communications Corp. Class A

    SBAC,
    +0.27%
    0.97%

    4.33%

    3.36%

    $31,662

    Communications infrastructure

    Welltower Inc.

    WELL,
    +3.06%
    3.66%

    4.76%

    1.10%

    $31,489

    Health care

    Digital Realty Trust Inc.

    DLR,
    +0.63%
    4.54%

    6.18%

    1.64%

    $30,903

    Data centers

    Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.

    ARE,
    +1.49%
    3.17%

    4.87%

    1.70%

    $24,451

    Offices

    AvalonBay Communities Inc.

    AVB,
    +0.98%
    3.78%

    5.69%

    1.90%

    $23,513

    Multifamily residential

    Equity Residential

    EQR,
    +1.46%
    4.02%

    5.36%

    1.34%

    $23,503

    Multifamily residential

    Extra Space Storage Inc.

    EXR,
    +0.31%
    3.93%

    5.83%

    1.90%

    $20,430

    Self-storage

    Invitation Homes Inc.

    INVH,
    +2.15%
    2.84%

    5.12%

    2.28%

    $18,948

    Single-family residental

    Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc.

    MAA,
    +1.83%
    3.16%

    5.18%

    2.02%

    $18,260

    Multifamily residential

    Ventas Inc.

    VTR,
    +2.22%
    4.07%

    5.95%

    1.88%

    $17,660

    Senior housing

    Sun Communities Inc.

    SUI,
    +2.12%
    2.51%

    4.81%

    2.30%

    $17,346

    Multifamily residential

    Source: FactSet

    Simon Property Group Inc.
    SPG,
    +1.03%

    is the only REIT to make both lists.

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  • Dow down by more than 500 points as Fed officials point to more rate hikes, China protests rattle markets

    Dow down by more than 500 points as Fed officials point to more rate hikes, China protests rattle markets

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    U.S. stocks tumbled on Monday as protests in China raised the risks to global growth and Federal Reserve policy makers said more interest-rate increases are needed to control inflation.

    How stocks are trading
    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 523 points, or 1.5%, at 33,824, near its session low.

    • The S&P 500
      SPX,
      -1.65%

      retreated 68 points, or 1.7%, to 3,958.

    • The Nasdaq Composite shed 195 points, or 1.7%, dropping to 11,031.

    U.S. stocks had notched weekly gains last week for the second time in three weeks. The Dow rose 1.8%, the S&P 500 advanced 1.5% and the Nasdaq gained 0.7%.

    What’s driving markets

    Wall Street started the week in a downbeat mood as traders absorbed the impact of unrest in China and assessed interest-rate commentary by a pair of Fed officials on Monday.

    St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told MarketWatch that he favors more aggressive interest-rate hikes to contain inflation, and that the central bank will likely need to keep interest rates above 5% into 2024. Meanwhile, his colleague John Williams, president of the New York Fed, said that U.S. unemployment could climb to as high as 5% next year, versus October’s rate of 3.7%, in response to the central bank’s series of rate hikes.

    Overseas, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index
    HSI,
    -1.57%

    closed down by 1.6% and most equity indexes across Asia also fell, with the exception of India’s, on concerns about unrest in China. Those concerns also spilled over into commodity markets, where West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery
    CLF23,
    +0.93%

     briefly fell to less than $74 per barrel before recovering and settling at $77.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Meanwhile, copper prices HG00 were off 0.9% at $3.594 per pound.

    “What people are worried about is the potential for protests in China to spread and whether the population is reaching its breaking point,” said Derek Tang, an economist at Monetary Policy Analytics in Washington. “At the same time, Fed speak is ramping up and the message is there’s more hikes to come. So investors aren’t finding relief.”

    Signs that economic activity in China will continue to be disrupted by the protests or by additional anti-COVID measures will likely continue to weigh on commodity prices, analysts said. Meanwhile, concerns about global growth helped to support government bond markets earlier on Monday, when the yield on the 10-year note
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.693%

    briefly traded at its lowest level since October.

    The unprecedented waves of protest in China “have caused ripples of unease across financial markets, as worries mount about repercussions for the world’s second-largest economy,” said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. “As demonstrations spread across the country from Beijing to Xinjiang and Shanghai, reflecting rising anger about the zero-Covid policy, a sustained recovery in demand across the vast country appears even further away.”

    But the news wasn’t all bad: Reports of strong online Black Friday sales helped boost shares of Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +0.29%
    ,
    which were up 0.6%.

    Investors can expect more information about the health of the U.S. economy in what’s shaping up to be a busy week for U.S. economic data: Later this week, investors will receive the ADP employment report followed by the November jobs report. Revised data on third-quarter gross domestic product is due on Wednesday, along with the Fed’s Beige Book report. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is set to speak publicly on Wednesday, and a closely watched gauge of inflation is due on Thursday.

    Read: ‘We see major stock markets plunging 25% from levels somewhat above today’s,’ Deutsche Bank says

    Single-stock movers

    Jamie Chisholm contributed to this article.

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  • Many investors are betting on an inflation peak. Here’s why a former hedge-fund manager says they’re wrong.

    Many investors are betting on an inflation peak. Here’s why a former hedge-fund manager says they’re wrong.

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    Investors are waking up to big trouble in big China. Stock futures and oil prices are falling after angry anti-COVID zero protests swept the country.

    “This is a sudden powerful new distraction for markets when this week was supposed to be about incoming U.S. data,” sum up strategists at Saxo Bank. They say watch companies exposed to China, “given forward earnings are likely to be downgraded following further China lockdowns and protests.” 

    Before China grabbed the spotlight, holiday weekend sales, jobs and inflation data that due this week, as well as remarks by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell were the big focus.

    Other questions are now swirling. Will China-related falls in oil prices lend to the peak inflation theory? And what about China’s post-COVID economic rebirth?

    Onto our call of the day, which says it’s time to short long bonds because of sticky food inflation — thanks to China. It comes from Russell Clark, a former hedge-fund manager who has spent the last 20 years focusing on that market, macro and short selling. 

    He notes investors have been scooping up the the iShares 20 years+ Treasury Bond ETF
    TLT,
    -0.34%
    ,
    a liquid exchange-traded fund that buys long-dated bonds, even as with U.S. inflation hovering at 1970 highs.

    “The reason that people are getting bullish bonds I believe is that the yield curve has inverted. And every time that has happened, you have a recession and you want to get out of equities and into bonds,” says Clark. A yield curve inversion occurs when long-term interest rates drop below short term rates. The inversion of 2 and 10-year Treasury yields is at its steepest since the 1980s.

    Clues may lie in Japan’s poorly performing bond market. “Not only has it been prescient in leading the U.S. bond yields lower from 1999 onward, in 2020 the JGB market was also prescient in signaling the future U.S. treasury sell off,” he says.


    Russell Clark

    And what Japan is likely seeing that U.S. investors aren’t right now is China-driven food inflation. That’s something the Fed will find it tough to ignore, he said.

    Since the since the 1980s, food commodity prices have followed raw commodity prices higher, If the Fed wants to work that down, it will raise interest rates. For example, falling natural-gas prices
    NG00,
    -3.37%

    would help ease fertilizer costs for farmers.


    Russell Clark

    Clark points out that China is the world’s biggest food importer, with much higher prices than the U.S.

    “Pork, which is the most consumed meat in China, is now 3 times more expensive than the U.S. market, and has recently doubled in price. As Japan is also a large importer of pork, perhaps this was the reason the JGB market sold off before the U.S.,” he said.

    Beef is also a major import for China, and yes, prices are much higher than that of the U.S.

    “In essence, I am saying that China is exporting food inflation to the rest of the world, and I don’t see that ending at the moment. JGBs seem to agree – and when I look at the index value of US Food CPI on a log basis, I keep thinking that is says interest rates are going higher not lower,” said Clark.

    He sees food inflation looking secular, rather than cyclical, due to the demands of an increasingly urbanized China. “Secular food inflation implies POLITICAL pressure to have higher interest rates. US treasuries look a short to me, just as everyone has gotten long,” he said.

    The markets

    Stock futures
    ES00,
    -0.73%

    YM00,
    -0.54%

    NQ00,
    -0.72%

    are falling, and Treasury yields
    TMUBMUSD10Y,
    3.684%

    TMUBMUSD02Y,
    4.467%

    and oil
    CL.1,
    -3.12%

    also are falling. The Japanese yen
    USDJPY,
    -0.61%

    is seeing some safe-haven bids. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index
    HSI,
    -1.57%

    closed down 1.5%.

    For more market updates plus actionable trade ideas for stocks, options and crypto, subscribe to MarketDiem by Investor’s Business Daily.

    The buzz

    An apartment-building fire in a locked-down city that killed 10 appeared to spark protests across China, calling for the President Xi Jinping to step down and zero-COVID policies to stop. A BBC reporter was arrested and beaten. Meanwhile, lockdowns mean China farmers are destroying crops they can’t sell.

    And similar unrest at China’s Zhengzhou Foxconn
    2317,
    -0.50%

    factory is expected to cause a shortfall of 6 million Apple
    AAPL,
    -1.96%

    iPhone Pros this year.

    Pinduoduo shares
    PDD,
    -1.44%

    are soaring after the China-based mobile marketplace reported profit and revenue beats.

    MGM Resorts 
    MGM,
    -0.42%
    ,
    Las Vegas Sands 
    LVS,
    +0.26%

    and Wynn Resorts 
    WYNN,
    -0.57%

    higher in premarket after Macao tentatively renewed their casino licenses.

    Retailers are in focus after Black Friday online sales topped a record $9 billion. That’s as some wonder if Cyber Monday is still a thing.

    St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will sit down for an interview with MarketWatch on Monday, at 12 noon Eastern. New York Fed President John Williams address the Economic Club of New York at the same time. Fed’s Powell will speak on Wednesday, along with several other Fed officials this week.

    A busy data week starts Tuesday with home-price indexes and consumer confidence data. GDP, the PCE price index for October — a favored gauge of the Federal Reserve and November employment data are also on tap this week.

    Best of the web

    ‘I believe the economy is the biggest bubble in world history,’ warns ‘Rich Dad, Poor Dad’s Robert Kiyosaki.

    Iran was calling for the U.S. to be expelled from the Qatar World Cup.

    Lab study shows next COVID strain will be more deadly.

    The tickers

    These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern:

    Ticker

    Security name

    TSLA,
    -0.19%
    Tesla

    GME,
    -1.99%
    GameStop

    AMC,
    -1.70%
    AMC Entertainment

    AAPL,
    -1.96%
    Apple

    COSM,
    +34.06%
    Cosmos Holdings

    AMZN,
    -0.76%
    Amazon.com

    BBBY,
    -2.70%
    Bed Bath & Beyond

    MULN,
    -2.39%
    Mullen Automotive

    APE,
    +0.83%
    AMC Entertainment Holdings preferred shares

    DWAC,
    +6.44%
    Digital World Acquisition Corp.

    Random reads

    Chinese woman on a mission to visit everyone else’s lonely elderly relatives.

    ‘Gaslighting’ is Merriam Webster’s word of the year. No, really.

    Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

    Listen to the Best New Ideas in Money podcast with MarketWatch reporter Charles Passy and economist Stephanie Kelton

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