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  • 18 stock picks in a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario for U.S. consumers

    18 stock picks in a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario for U.S. consumers

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    It may not have been a surprise to see the consumer discretionary sector of the S&P 500 get hammered last year amid talk of a looming recession while the Federal Reserve jacked up interest rates to push back against inflation.

    But the stock market always looks ahead. Following a decline of 19.4% for the S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.42%
    in 2022 and a 37.6% drop for the benchmark index’s consumer discretionary sector, this may be the time to begin looking for bargains.

    And now, analysts at Jefferies have lifted the sector to a “bullish” rating.

    In a note to clients on Jan. 10, Jefferies’ global equity strategist, Sean Darby, wrote: “A Goldilocks scenario might be unfolding for the U.S. consumer — falling inflation but steady employment conditions.”

    He sees consumer confidence improving, in part because “households are still sitting on [about] $1.4 trillion of Covid savings.”

    Darby pointed to a list of 18 consumer discretionary stocks favored by Jefferies analysts that was published on Jan. 6. Those are listed below, along with three stocks in the sector the analysts rate “underperform.”

    The ratings of the Jefferies analysts for individual stocks is based on their 12-month outlooks for the companies, in keeping with Wall Street tradition.

    So we have added another list further down, showing which companies in the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector are expected by analysts polled by FactSet to increase sales the most through 2024.

    The Jefferies 18

    Here are the 18 consumer discretionary stocks recommended by Jefferies analysts with “buy” ratings on Jan. 6, sorted by how much upside the firm sees for the shares from closing prices on Jan. 9:

    Company

    		 Ticker

    		 Jan. 9 price

    		 Jefferies price target

    		 Implied 12-month upside potential

    		 Three-year estimated sales CAGR through 2022

    		 Two-year estimated sales CAGR through 2024
    Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp.

    		 MODG,
    -0.22%         		$20.76

    		 $56

    		 170%

    		 32.8%

    		 10.0%
    Bloomin’ Brands Inc.

    		 BLMN,
    +3.87%         		$22.08

    		 $35

    		 59%

    		 2.4%

    		 3.7%
    Coty Inc. Class A

    		 COTY,
    +1.23%         		$9.38

    		 $14

    		 49%

    		 -7.1%

    		 3.7%
    MGM Resorts International

    		 MGM,
    +1.71%         		$37.64

    		 $56

    		 49%

    		 -0.1%

    		 6.6%
    Chewy Inc. Class A

    		 CHWY,
    +1.63%         		$40.13

    		 $57

    		 42%

    		 28.0%

    		 10.6%
    Planet Fitness Inc. Class A

    		 PLNT,
    +0.69%         		$82.36

    		 $115

    		 40%

    		 10.4%

    		 13.9%
    Molson Coors Beverage Co. Class B

    		 TAP,
    +0.67%         		$50.21

    		 $69

    		 37%

    		 0.5%

    		 1.4%
    Fox Factory Holding Corp.

    		 FOXF,
    +3.95%         		$99.90

    		 $135

    		 35%

    		 28.1%

    		 6.6%
    Hasbro Inc.

    		 HAS,
    +0.99%         		$63.70

    		 $85

    		 33%

    		 9.1%

    		 3.6%
    Hostess Brands Inc. Class A

    		 TWNK,
    +0.33%         		$23.10

    		 $30

    		 30%

    		 14.2%

    		 5.0%
    Lowe’s Cos. Inc.

    		 LOW,
    +0.08%         		$199.44

    		 $250

    		 25%

    		 10.6%

    		 -1.9%
    Walmart Inc.

    		 WMT,
    -0.27%         		$144.95

    		 $175

    		 21%

    		 4.9%

    		 3.3%
    Dollar General Corp.

    		 DG,
    -0.26%         		$241.05

    		 $285

    		 18%

    		 10.9%

    		 6.7%
    Church & Dwight Co. Inc.

    		 CHD,
    -1.17%         		$82.25

    		 $97

    		 18%

    		 7.0%

    		 4.6%
    McDonald’s Corp.

    		 MCD,
    +0.39%         		$267.25

    		 $315

    		 18%

    		 2.4%

    		 4.0%
    Estee Lauder Cos. Inc. Class A

    		 EL,
    +0.39%         		$261.63

    		 $304

    		 16%

    		 2.8%

    		 5.8%
    Mondelez International Inc. Class A

    		 MDLZ,
    -0.04%         		$67.24

    		 $75

    		 12%

    		 6.3%

    		 4.1%
    Tapestry Inc.

    		 TPR,
    +0.73%         		$41.25

    		 $45

    		 9%

    		 3.3%

    		 3.2%
    Sources: Jefferies, FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more information about the companies.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    The two right-most columns on the table show estimated compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for the companies over the past three calendar years and expected sales CAGR for two years through calendar 2024, based on the companies’ financial reports and consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet.

    (We used calendar-year numbers, some of which are estimated by FactSet for prior years, because some companies have fiscal years or even months that don’t match the calendar.)

    The stock pick with the highest 12-month upside potential, based on Jefferies’ price target, is Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp.
    MODG,
    -0.22%    .
    This company has the highest estimated three-year sales CAGR on the list, and has the third-highest projected sales CAGR through 2024, after Planet Fitness Inc.
    PLNT,
    +0.69%
    and Chewy Inc.
    CHWY,
    +1.63%    .

    On Jan. 6, the Jefferies analysts also listed three stocks in the sector they rated “underperform.” Here they are, sorted by how much the analysts expect the stocks to decline over the next 12 months:

    Company

    		 Ticker

    		 Jan. 9 price

    		 Jefferies price target

    		 Implied 12-month upside potential

    		 Three-year estimated sales CAGR through 2022

    		 Two-year estimated sales CAGR through 2024
    Lululemon Athletica Inc.

    		 LULU,
    +2.98%         		$298.66

    		 $200

    		 -33%

    		 26.3%

    		 14.6%
    Williams-Sonoma Inc.

    		 WSM,
    +1.75%         		$122.17

    		 $98

    		 -20%

    		 14.1%

    		 -0.3%
    Harley-Davidson Inc.

    		 HOG,
    +0.35%         		$43.25

    		 $39

    		 -10%

    		 -2.8%

    		 4.4%
    Sources: Jefferies, FactSet
    Screen of consumer discretionary sales growth

    A look head at which companies are expected to increase sales the most over the next two years might serve as a good starting point for your own research.

    Bear in mind that some of the companies in travel-related industries suffered declining sales for three years through 2022 because of the coronavirus pandemic. Some of those are on this new list of 20 stocks in the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector expected to show the highest two-year sales CAGR through calendar 2024:

    Company

    		 Ticker

    		 Two-year estimated sales CAGR through 2024

    		 Three-year estimated sales CAGR through 2022

    		 Share “buy” ratings

    		 Jan. 9 price

    		 Consensus price target

    		 Implied 12-month upside potential
    Las Vegas Sands Corp.

    		 LVS,
    +1.59%         		59.2%

    		 -32.6%

    		 79%

    		 $52.78

    		 $53.53

    		 1%
    Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.

    		 NCLH,
    +1.67%         		39.6%

    		 -9.3%

    		 44%

    		 $13.78

    		 $16.96

    		 23%
    Carnival Corp.

    		 CCL,
    +1.64%         		35.2%

    		 -14.7%

    		 30%

    		 $9.47

    		 $10.11

    		 7%
    Tesla Inc.

    		 TSLA,
    -1.83%         		34.3%

    		 49.7%

    		 64%

    		 $119.77

    		 $232.43

    		 94%
    Wynn Resorts Ltd.

    		 WYNN,
    +2.01%         		29.3%

    		 -17.5%

    		 53%

    		 $94.33

    		 $96.07

    		 2%
    Royal Caribbean Group

    		 RCL,
    +2.22%         		28.4%

    		 -6.8%

    		 53%

    		 $57.29

    		 $66.43

    		 16%
    Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.

    		 CMG,
    -0.17%         		13.4%

    		 15.9%

    		 71%

    		 $1,446.74

    		 $1,778.81

    		 23%
    Amazon.com Inc.

    		 AMZN,
    +2.61%         		12.2%

    		 22.1%

    		 92%

    		 $87.36

    		 $133.76

    		 53%
    Booking Holdings Inc.

    		 BKNG,
    +0.37%         		11.9%

    		 3.9%

    		 63%

    		 $2,208.41

    		 $2,307.67

    		 4%
    Aptiv PLC

    		 APTV,
    +1.66%         		11.9%

    		 6.4%

    		 70%

    		 $97.98

    		 $117.23

    		 20%
    Starbucks Corp.

    		 SBUX,
    +1.28%         		11.2%

    		 7.2%

    		 42%

    		 $104.74

    		 $103.44

    		 -1%
    Etsy Inc.

    		 ETSY,
    +3.56%         		11.1%

    		 45.3%

    		 50%

    		 $120.99

    		 $124.04

    		 3%
    Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.

    		 HLT,
    +0.06%         		10.1%

    		 -2.9%

    		 38%

    		 $129.08

    		 $146.17

    		 13%
    Expedia Group Inc.

    		 EXPE,
    +0.39%         		9.0%

    		 -0.9%

    		 50%

    		 $93.77

    		 $125.65

    		 34%
    NIKE Inc. Class B

    		 NKE,
    +0.68%         		8.1%

    		 5.8%

    		 62%

    		 $124.85

    		 $126.15

    		 1%
    Marriott International Inc. Class A

    		 MAR,
    +0.47%         		7.5%

    		 -1.2%

    		 30%

    		 $152.53

    		 $172.81

    		 13%
    BorgWarner Inc.

    		 BWA,
    +1.82%         		7.1%

    		 15.3%

    		 53%

    		 $42.24

    		 $46.93

    		 11%
    Tractor Supply Co.

    		 TSCO,
    +1.06%         		6.8%

    		 19.0%

    		 61%

    		 $217.48

    		 $232.34

    		 7%
    Yum! Brands Inc.

    		 YUM,
    -0.76%         		6.7%

    		 6.4%

    		 47%

    		 $129.76

    		 $137.79

    		 6%
    Dollar General Corp.

    		 DG,
    -0.26%         		6.7%

    		 10.9%

    		 67%

    		 $241.05

    		 $267.54

    		 11%
    Source: FactSet

    Among the companies on this list that didn’t suffer sales declines from 2019 levels, Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    -1.83%
    is expected to achieve the highest two-year sales CAGR through 2022.

    Dollar General Corp.
    DG,
    -0.26%
    is the only company to appear on this list based on consensus sales growth estimates and the Jefferies recommended list.

    Don’t miss: These 15 Dividend Aristocrat stocks have been the best income builders

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  • SEC charges ex–McDonald’s CEO Easterbrook for making false statements relating to his 2019 ouster

    SEC charges ex–McDonald’s CEO Easterbrook for making false statements relating to his 2019 ouster

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    The Securities and Exchange Commission said Monday it has filed charges against Stephen J. Easterbrook, former chief executive of McDonald’s Corp., for making “false and misleading” statements to investors about the circumstances that led to his ouster in November 2019.

    The agency has also filed charges against McDonald’s for “shortcomings” in its public disclosures relating to Easterbrook’s severance agreement.

    McDonald’s
    MCD,
    -0.55%
    fired Easterbrook for exercising poor judgment and violating company policy by engaging in an inappropriate personal relationship with a McDonald’s employee. However, the separation agreement struck with the executive concluded that his termination was without cause, allowing him to retain substantial equity compensation that would have been forfeited in other circumstances.

    “In making this conclusion, McDonald’s exercised discretion that was not disclosed to investors,” the SEC said in a statement.

    In July 2020, McDonald’s discovered in an internal probe that Easterbrook had engaged in other, undisclosed relationships with employees. Those findings were not disclosed prior to Easterbrook’s termination, in the knowledge that they would influence the board’s decision making, according to the SEC.

    “When corporate officers corrupt internal processes to manage their personal reputations or line their own pockets, they breach their fundamental duties to shareholders, who are entitled to transparency and fair dealing from executives,” said Gurbir S. Grewal, the SEC’s director of the division of enforcement. 

    The SEC is charging Easterbrook with violating anti-fraud provisions of the SEC Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Easterbrook has consented to a cease-and-desist order and five-year officer and director bar and a $400,000 civil penalty, without admitting to or denying the charges.

    McDonald’s is charged with violating section 14(a) of the Exchange Act and Exchange Act Rule 14a-3. The fast-food giant has consented to a cease-and-desist order, without admitting to or denying SEC findings. The SEC has opted not to fine the company, as it cooperated with the agency and clawed back compensation after its probe.

    The stock was slightly lower Monday in early trades.

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  • CES 2023: AMD, Nvidia, auto applications get the hype, but analysts say this one chip maker ruled

    CES 2023: AMD, Nvidia, auto applications get the hype, but analysts say this one chip maker ruled

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    As CES 2023 draws to a close, much of the attention in the chip world was lauded on companies like Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Nvidia Corp. but a lower profile chip maker appears better positioned coming out of the convention.

    Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore said there’s still a lot of caution about overall chip demand especially with softness in China, but autos appear to be one of the strong themes of CES 2023, he said.

    “The areas that have been weak remain somewhat weaker – notably memory, semi cap, and generally PC and cloud builds – while the markets that have been strong (such as automotive and industrial) remain strong but with lead times clearly starting to normalize, which likely points to longer term revenue pressures particularly in a weaker economy,” Moore said.

    “Still, the longer term themes remain positive, especially for autos (which is increasingly the focus of CES),around themes such as EVs, ADAS and autonomous.”

    Such was the case when Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    +4.16%
     said on Tuesday it was partnering with Hon Hai Technology Group
    2317,
    +0.41%
     , or Foxconn, best known for being the manufacturer of Apple Inc.’s
    AAPL,
    +3.68%
    iPhone, to make electric vehicles that use Nvidia’s Drive Orin chips and sensors, and bringing its GeForce Now streaming video game service to autos made by Hyundai Motor Group
    005380,
    +0.31%    ,
    BYD
    1211,
    -2.60%    ,
    and Swedish EV maker Polestar.

    “We generally think that Nvidia numbers are likely OK from here, though there was some caution on sell through in China for gaming, and a clear awareness that while the company’s position within cloud is very good, that pressure in cloud budgets leads to somewhat lower visibility,” Moore said. “But we would say that generally we think that they are past the worst of the pressures in their business, in contrast to most of the semiconductor group where there are still likely numbers cuts ahead.”

    Meanwhile, Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
    AMD,
    +2.62%
    used the CES keynote to introduce the Instinct MI300 chip as “world’s first data-center integrated CPU + GPU.” The  combined central processing unit and graphics processing unit meant for AI inference, the months-long process where data centers spend millions of dollars a year on electricity to train and develop artificial intelligence. AMD Chief Executive and Chair Lisa Su said the MI300 can reduce the time it takes for an inference modeling process from months to weeks.

    But one chip maker that doesn’t get a lot of attention appeared to emerge from CES best positioned for the year: ON Semiconductor Corp.
    ON,
    +4.57%    ,
    which focuses on electric vehicles and advanced driver assistance systems as primary growth drivers, leveraging its legacy position in auto chips.

    “Most notably, the company’s push into [Silicon Carbide] remains on track, and expect to still exit the year at a run-rate where the majority of crystal driving the business is internally sourced,” Moore said. “The company remains confident that demand in the EV space will far outpace supply for a long time and have thus shifted their focus over to execution on the production side.”

    Citi Research analyst Christopher Danley lauded ON as being the most bullish chip maker of CES 2023.

    “ON remains on track to triple Silicon Carbide revenue YoY from roughly $300 million in 2022 to $1.0 billion in 2023,” Danley said. “The company stated it is sold out through 2023.”

    But ON aside, Danley said everyone at CES is “nervous” about “cracks” in data-center demand, “and they should be.”

    “There was a tone of nervousness on the data center outlook with many execs and investors cautious and talking about ‘uncertainty’ in data center outlooks from both hyperscalers and enterprise customers,” Danley said. “We continue to believe data center correction will happen given a multitude of datapoints and leading indicators.”

    Back in early December, Danley said his checks “indicate order rates from the data center end market are fading with downside from the enterprise end market (roughly 40% of the data center end market) and Facebook,” which is owned by parent company Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    +2.43%
    “We continue to expect a correction in the data center end market in 1H23,” Danley said.

    That said, Danley said his top pick was and continue to believe a correction there is inevitable. We remain cautious on semis until all end markets and companies correct and our top pick remains chip maker Analog Devices Inc.
    ADI,
    +3.65%

    Back to autos: Ambarella Inc.
    AMBA,
    +6.77%
    on Thursday, Ambarella said it was partnering with Continental AG
    CON,
    +2.32%
    to develop hardware and software for assisted driving using AI with the ultimate goal of an autonomous driving system. The companies hope to have systems in production in 2026.

    Moore said Ambarella’s tech “continues to impress,” and said the Continental partnership will provide software revenue that’s shared but with the larger portion going to Continental.

    At CES 2023, “the companies are showing a full L2+ ADAS implementation for a 10-camera system running on a single chip, which per AMBA was only using 8% of the compute value of the chip.”

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  • Tesla stock wipes out three-day bounce, falls to lowest price in more than 2 years

    Tesla stock wipes out three-day bounce, falls to lowest price in more than 2 years

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    It has taken just one day for Tesla Inc.’s stock to erase the entire bounce it enjoyed over the last three days trading sessions of 2022, as disappointing deliveries data helped trigger the biggest selloff in more than two years.

    The stock’s
    TSLA,
    -12.24%
    Tuesday drop knocked the electric vehicle maker’s market capitalization to 15th on the list of most valuation S&P 500 index companies.

    On Tuesday, Tesla’s market cap fell below that of consumer products company Procter & Gamble Co.
    PG,
    +0.01%    ,
    with a current market cap of $359.18 billion, and was just below Nvidia Corp.
    NVDA,
    -2.05%
    at $352.15 billion, according to FactSet data. Tesla sat just above Chevron Corp.
    CVX,
    -3.06%    ,
    which was at $336.43 billion. (See list of S&P 500’s 20 most valuable companies as of Tuesday’s closing prices below.)

    Tesla’s stock took a $15.08, or 12.2% dive, to $108.10 on Tuesday, to lead the S&P 500’s
    SPX,
    -0.40%
    decliners, after the company reported over the weekend that fourth-quarter deliveries that came up short of expectations for the third quarter in a row. It suffered the biggest one-day decline since it plummeted 21.1% on Sept. 8, 2020, and closed at the lowest price since Aug. 13, 2020.

    Don’t miss: Tesla delivery-target miss shows ‘demand cracks clearly happening’ that mean ‘numbers could be materially reset’ for coming years, analysts write.

    With about 3.16 billion shares outstanding as of Oct. 18, the stock’s decline shaved about $47.62 billion off Tesla’s market cap, to bring it down to $341.35 billion. That’s a far cry from the peak market cap of $1.24 trillion reached exactly one-year ago.

    After the stock hit the deepest oversold reading in its history based on the widely followed Relative Strength Index momentum indicator on Dec. 27, following the longest losing streak in more than four years, it ran up $14.08, or 12.9%, over the past three days.

    If there’s a bright side to Tuesday’s stock selloff, it’s that even though the price fell below the Dec. 27 closing price, the RSI ended the day at 24.86, which is up from the Dec. 27 record low of 16.56.

    That could be a preliminary sign of what chart watchers call “bullish technical divergence,” which is when prices make lower lows while the RSI makes a higher low. It’s still rather early to make that determination, however, as the stock needs to start bouncing again to see if RSI bottoms above the previous low.

    Market caps of the Top 20 most valuable S&P 500 companies:

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  • One-third of world economy expected to be in recession in 2023, says IMF chief

    One-third of world economy expected to be in recession in 2023, says IMF chief

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    This year is going to be tougher on the global economy than 2022, the International Monetary Fund’s chief, Kristalina Georgieva, has warned.

    “Why? Because the three big economies, U.S., EU, China, are all slowing down simultaneously,” she said in an interview that on the CBS Sunday morning news program “Face the Nation.”

    “We expect one-third of the world economy to be in recession,” she said, adding that even for countries that are not in recession, it “would feel like recession for hundreds of millions of people.”

    The U.S. may end up avoiding a recession, but the situation looks more bleak in Europe, which has been hit hard by the war in Ukraine, she said. “Half of the European Union will be in recession,” Georgieva added.

    Purchasing manager index numbers for manufacturing published on Monday showed negative readings across Europe, Turkey and in South Korea. S&P Global data due Tuesday are expected to show similarly bad numbers for Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam, the U.K., Canada and the U.S.

    The IMF currently projects a global growth rate of 2.7% in 2023, slowing from 3.2% in 2022. Last October, the IMF cut its outlook for global economic growth for 2023, reflecting the ongoing drag from the war in Ukraine as well as inflation and the resulting high interest rates from central banks.

    The economic slowdown in China may have an impact around the world. The world’s second largest economy weakened in 2022 because of lockdowns and restrictions imposed on businesses and consumers under its zero-COVID policy which disrupted supply chains and damaged trade flows.

    Data published on Saturday showed that China’s reversal of its extraordinarily strict COVID policy meant economic activity in December fell to the slowest pace since February 2020 as the coronavirus overwhelmed the healthcare system, dampening consumption and production in the process.

    “For the first time in 40 years China’s growth in 2022 is likely to be at or below global growth,” Georgieva said. “Before COVID, China would deliver 34, 35, 40% of global growth. It is not doing it anymore,” she said, adding that it is “quite a stressful” period for Asian economies.

    See: China announces U-turn on strict zero-COVID measures

    Also: China is racing to vaccinate the elderly as infections explode with lifting of zero-COVID restrictions

    From the archives (November 2022): Protests expand over zero-COVID policies in China

    “When I talk to Asian leaders, all of them start with this question, ‘What is going to happen with China? Is China going to return to a higher level of growth?’ ” she said.

    The next couple of months will “be tough for China, and the impact on Chinese growth would be negative,” Georgieva said, adding that she expects the country to move gradually to a “higher level of economic performance, and finish the year better off than it is going to start the year.”

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  • These 20 stocks were the biggest losers of 2022

    These 20 stocks were the biggest losers of 2022

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    This has been the year of reckoning for Big Tech stocks — even those of companies that have continued to grow sales by double digits.

    Below is a list of the 20 stocks in the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.72%
    that have declined the most in 2022.

    First, here’s how the 11 sectors of the benchmark index have performed this year:

    S&P 500 sector

    		 2022 price change

    		 Forward P/E

    		 Forward P/E as of Dec. 31, 2021
    Energy

    		 57.8%

    		 9.6

    		 11.1
    Utilities

    		 -0.5%

    		 18.8

    		 20.4
    Consumer Staples

    		 -2.7%

    		 20.9

    		 21.8
    Healthcare

    		 -3.2%

    		 17.4

    		 17.2
    Industrials

    		 -6.7%

    		 18.0

    		 20.8
    Financials

    		 -12.1%

    		 11.7

    		 14.6
    Materials

    		 -13.4%

    		 15.6

    		 16.6
    Real Estate

    		-27.7%

    		 16.2

    		 24.2
    Information Technology

    		 -28.8%

    		 19.6

    		 28.1
    Consumer Discretionary

    		 -37.4%

    		 20.7

    		 33.2
    Communication Services

    		 -40.4%

    		 14.0

    		 20.8
    S&P 500

    		 -19.2%

    		 16.5

    		 21.4
    Source: FactSet

    The energy sector has been the only one to show a gain in 2022, and it has been a whopper, even as West Texas Intermediate crude oil
    CL.1,
    +0.41%
    has given up most of its gains from earlier in the year. Here’s why investors are still confident in the supply/demand setup for oil and energy stocks.

    Looking at the worst-performing sectors, you might wonder why the consumer discretionary and communication services sectors have fared worse than information-technology, the core tech sector. One reason is that S&P Dow Jones Indices can surprise investors with its sector choices. The consumer discretionary sector includes Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    +0.70%
    and Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    -1.17%    ,
    which has fallen nearly 50% this year. The communications sector includes Meta Platforms Inc.
    META,
    -1.21%    ,
    along with Match Group Inc.
    MTCH,
    +0.50%    ,
    which is down 69% for 2022, and Netflix Inc.
    NFLX,
    -0.44%    ,
    which is down 52% this year.

    There have been many reasons easy to cite for Big Tech’s decline, such as a questionable change in strategy for Facebook’s holding company, Meta, as CEO Mark Zuckerberg has put so much of the company’s resources into developing a new world that most people don’t wish to enter, at least yet. Meta’s shares were down 64% for 2022 through Dec. 29.

    You might also blame the Twitter-related antics and sales of Tesla shares by CEO Elon Musk for the 65% decline in the electric-vehicle maker’s stock this year. But Tesla had a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 120.3 at the end of 2021, while the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.72%
    traded for 21.4 times its weighted forward earnings estimate, according to FactSet. Those P/E ratios have now declined to 21.7 and 16.4, respectively. So Tesla no longer appears to be a very expensive stock, especially for a company that increased its vehicle deliveries by 42% in the third quarter from a year earlier.

    Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla’s stock to double during 2023. It nearly made this list of 20 EV stocks expected to rebound the most in 2023.

    The worst-performing S&P 500 stocks of 2022

    Here are the 20 stocks in the S&P 500 that fell the most for 2022 through the close on Dec. 29.

    Company

    		 Ticker

    		 2022 price change

    		 Forward P/E

    		 Forward P/E as of Dec. 32, 2021
    Generac Holdings Inc.

    		 GNRC,
    -0.84%         		-71.4%

    		 13.7

    		 30.2
    Match Group Inc.

    		 MTCH,
    +0.50%         		-68.9%

    		 20.1

    		 48.5
    Align Technology Inc.

    		 ALGN,
    -0.52%         		-67.7%

    		 27.4

    		 48.7
    Tesla Inc.

    		 TSLA,
    +0.70%         		-65.4%

    		 21.7

    		 120.3
    SVB Financial Group

    		 SIVB,
    -0.38%         		-65.4%

    		 10.8

    		 23.0
    Catalent Inc.

    		 CTLT,
    -0.40%         		-64.6%

    		 13.0

    		 32.5
    Meta Platforms Inc. Class A

    		 META,
    -1.21%         		-64.2%

    		 14.7

    		 23.5
    Signature Bank

    		 SBNY,
    -0.34%         		-64.1%

    		 6.2

    		 18.6
    PayPal Holdings Inc.

    		 PYPL,
    -0.01%         		-62.6%

    		 14.8

    		 36.0
    V.F. Corp.

    		 VFC,
    +0.15%         		-62.5%

    		 11.9

    		 20.4
    Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. Series A

    		 WBD,
    -1.64%         		-59.9%

    		 N/A

    		 7.5
    Carnival Corp.

    		 CCL,
    -0.23%         		-59.8%

    		 38.1

    		 N/A
    Stanley Black & Decker Inc.

    		 SWK,
    -0.42%         		-59.8%

    		 17.0

    		 15.9
    Lumen Technologies Inc.

    		 LUMN,
    -1.79%         		-57.8%

    		 7.7

    		 7.8
    Zebra Technologies Corp. Class A

    		 ZBRA,
    -0.44%         		-56.7%

    		 14.5

    		 30.1
    Dish Network Corp. Class A

    		 DISH,
    -0.96%         		-56.5%

    		 8.6

    		 10.9
    Caesars Entertainment Inc.

    		 CZR,
    +0.24%         		-55.7%

    		 51.4

    		 144.5
    Lincoln National Corp.

    		 LNC,
    +0.26%         		-55.1%

    		 3.4

    		 6.2
    Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

    		 AMD,
    -0.97%         		-55.0%

    		 17.8

    		 43.1
    Seagate Technology Holdings PLC

    		 STX,
    -0.55%         		-53.1%

    		 15.0

    		 12.4
    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more information about the companies.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    Another way of measuring the biggest stock-market losers of 2022

    It is one thing to have a large decline based on the share price, but that doesn’t tell the entire story. How much of a decline have investors seen in the holdings of their shares during the year? The S&P 500’s total market capitalization declined to $31.66 trillion as of Dec. 28 (the most recent figure available) from $40.36 trillion at the end of 2021, according to FactSet.

    Shareholders of these companies have suffered the largest declines in market cap during 2022.

    Company

    		 Ticker

    		 2022 market capitalization change ($bil)

    		 2022 price change
    Apple Inc.

    		 AAPL,
    -0.63%         		-$851

    		 -27.0%
    Amazon.com Inc.

    		 AMZN,
    -1.17%         		-$832

    		 -49.5%
    Microsoft Corp.

    		 MSFT,
    -1.15%         		-$728

    		 -28.3%
    Tesla Inc.

    		 TSLA,
    +0.70%         		-$677

    		 -65.4%
    Meta Platforms Inc. Class A

    		 META,
    -1.21%         		-$465

    		 -64.2%
    Nvidia Corp.

    		 NVDA,
    -1.37%         		-$376

    		 -50.3%
    PayPal Holdings Inc.

    		 PYPL,
    -0.01%         		-$141

    		 -62.6%
    Netflix Inc.

    		 NFLX,
    -0.44%         		-$138

    		 -51.7%
    Walt Disney Co.

    		 DIS,
    -1.62%         		-$123

    		 -43.7%
    Salesforce Inc.

    		 CRM,
    -0.96%         		-$118

    		 -47.8%
    Source: FactSet

    So there is your surprise for today: Apple is this year’s biggest stock-market loser.

    Don’t miss: Best stock picks for 2023: Here are Wall Street analysts’ most heavily favored choices

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  • Trump’s tax returns are now public after long fight with Congress

    Trump’s tax returns are now public after long fight with Congress

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    The U.S. House Ways and Means Committee released six years of former President Donald Trump’s tax returns on Friday.

    Experts will be looking closely at large business losses reported by Trump that significantly reduced his tax liability. For instance, he paid no federal taxes in 2020.

    “Trump paid miniscule income taxes in 2015-2020, and almost no income taxes for the prior three decades,” said Steve Rosenthal, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center in Washington, in an email.

    “We also have learned that, in the 1990s and 2000s, Trump claimed business losses of tens and sometimes hundreds of millions annually. I studied these a few years ago and found some real, and some fake,” he added.

    “It is still early to determine how much of Trump’s most recent losses were real or fake,” Rosenthal said.

    Read: Trump paid $0 taxes in 2020. He’s not alone

    Analysts are also going to pore over the documents for any details of Trump’s foreign business dealings.

    Some certified public accountants who looked at the documents say the returns show that the U.S. tax system has been written to “incentivize” real estate investing.

    Bottom line: In order to generate these kinds of losses, you need to be super rich. It’s not a poor man’s game,” said Jonathan Medows, managing member of Medows CPA PLLC in New York.

    Read: CPAs have questions about Trump’s tax returns

    David Cay Johnston, a Pulitzer Prize winning author and longtime Trump critic, in a post on his non-profit news organization DC Report, called the former president’s tax returns “a rich environment in which questionable conduct is found throughout the filings and needs only seasoned auditors to uncover fictional expenditures.”

    He said that Trump was warned by two New York state judges in trials about his 1984 taxes not to deduct huge expenses in businesses with no revenue.

    “That Trump persisted in using the same fraudulent technique in six years of recent tax returns is powerful evidence of criminal intent,” Johnston wrote.

    In a statement, Trump said his returns show “how I have been able to use depreciation and various other tax deductions as an incentive for creating thousands of jobs.”

    Key words: Trump on release of his tax returns

    Some experts said they were going to look at the returns for details about Trump’s foreign sources of income. The documents show that Trump had foreign bank accounts while he was president.

    See: What could be learned from Trump’s tax returns

    Democrats on the Ways and Means Committee said they voted to release the Trump tax returns to help improve the tax laws. Republicans warned that the release would set a precedent where political parties routinely release the tax returns of their opponents.

    Another question is why the Internal Revenue Service failed to audit Trump’s tax returns as it routinely does for U.S. presidents.

    See: Trump taxes could rev up fight over IRS funding

    On Jan. 3, Republicans will take control of the House along with the tax-writing committee.

    Rep. Don Beyer, a Democrat from Virginia who is a member of the Ways and Means Committee, said the Trump tax returns “underscore the fact that our tax laws are often inequitable and that enforcement of them is often unjust.”

    Rep. Kevin Brady, the Republican from Texas who was the minority leader of the Ways and Means panel and is leaving Congress in January, said Democrats did not release the Trump tax records for any legislative purpose but wanted to “unleash a dangerous new political weapon” at the former president.

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  • These 20 stocks were the biggest winners of 2022

    These 20 stocks were the biggest winners of 2022

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    Even during a year in which the S&P 500 index declined 19%, with 72% of its stocks in the red, there were plenty of winners.

    Before showing you the list of the best performers in the benchmark index, let’s look at a preview: Here’s how the 11 sectors of the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -0.25%
    performed for the year:

    Index

    		 2022 price change

    		 Forward P/E

    		 Forward P/E as of Dec. 31, 2021
    Energy

    		 59.0%

    		 9.7

    		 11.1
    Utilities

    		 -1.4%

    		 18.9

    		 20.4
    Consumer Staples

    		 -3.2%

    		 21.0

    		 21.8
    Health Care

    		 -3.6%

    		 17.6

    		 17.2
    Industrials

    		 -7.1%

    		 18.3

    		 20.8
    Financials

    		 -12.4%

    		 11.9

    		 14.6
    Materials

    		 -14.1%

    		 15.8

    		 16.6
    Real Estate

    		 -28.4%

    		 16.5

    		 24.2
    Information Technology

    		 -28.9%

    		 20.1

    		 28.1
    Consumer Discretionary

    		 -37.6%

    		 21.3

    		 33.2
    Communication Services

    		 -40.4%

    		 14.3

    		 20.8
    S&P 500

    		 -19.4%

    		 16.8

    		 21.4
    Source: FactSet

    Maybe you aren’t surprised to see that the energy sector was the only one to increase during 2022. But it might surprise you to see that despite the sector’s weighted price increase of 59%, its forward price-to-earnings ratio declined and remains very low relative to all other sectors.

    It might also surprise you that West Texas Intermediate crude oil
    CL.1,
    +2.69%
    gave up most of its gains from earlier in the year:


    FactSet

    The reason investors are still confident in energy stocks is that oil producers have remained cautious when it comes to capital spending. They don’t want to increase supply enough to cause prices to crash, as they did in the run-up to the summer of 2014, after which prices fell steadily through early 2016, causing bankruptcies and consolidation in the industry.

    Now the oil companies are focusing on maintaining supply, raising dividends and buying back shares, as Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s
    OXY,
    +1.14%
    chief executive explained in a recent interview with Matt Peterson. Click here for more about Occidental and the long-term supply/demand outlook for oil.

    Best-performing S&P 500 stocks of 2022

    Here are the 20 stocks in the benchmark index that rose most during 2022, excluding dividends. Proving that there are always exceptions, not all of them are in the energy sector.

    Company

    		 Ticker

    		 Sector

    		 Industry

    		 2022 price change
    Occidental Petroleum Corp.

    		 OXY,
    +1.14%         		Energy

    		 Oil & Gas Production

    		 117.3%
    Hess Corp.

    		 HES,
    +0.68%         		Energy

    		 Oil & Gas Production

    		 91.6%
    Marathon Petroleum Corp.

    		 MPC,
    +0.18%         		Energy

    		 Oil Refining/ Marketing

    		 81.9%
    Exxon Mobil Corp.

    		 XOM,
    +1.01%         		Energy

    		 Integrated Oil

    		 80.3%
    Schlumberger Ltd.

    		 SLB,
    +1.04%         		Energy

    		 Contract Drilling

    		 78.5%
    APA Corp.

    		 APA,
    +1.68%         		Energy

    		 Integrated Oil

    		 73.6%
    Halliburton Co.

    		 HAL,
    +1.23%         		Energy

    		 Oil & Gas Production

    		 72.1%
    First Solar Inc.

    		 FSLR,
    +0.68%         		Information Technology

    		 Semiconductors

    		 71.9%
    Valero Energy Corp.

    		 VLO,
    +0.43%         		Energy

    		 Oil Refining/ Marketing

    		 68.9%
    Marathon Oil Corp.

    		 MRO,
    +1.08%         		Energy

    		 Oil & Gas Production

    		 64.9%
    ConocoPhillips

    		 COP,
    +1.38%         		Energy

    		 Oil & Gas Production

    		 63.5%
    Steel Dynamics Inc.

    		 STLD,
    -0.72%         		Materials

    		 Steel

    		 57.4%
    EQT Corp.

    		 EQT,
    -0.12%         		Energy

    		 Oil & Gas Production

    		 55.1%
    Chevron Corp.

    		 CVX,
    +0.66%         		Energy

    		 Integrated Oil

    		 53.0%
    McKesson Corp.

    		 MCK,
         		Health Care

    		 Medical Distributors

    		 50.9%
    Cardinal Health Inc.

    		 CAH,
    -0.46%         		Health Care

    		 Medical Distributors

    		 49.3%
    EOG Resources Inc.

    		 EOG,
    +0.69%         		Energy

    		 Oil & Gas Production

    		 45.8%
    Enphase Energy Inc.

    		 ENPH,
    -0.20%         		Information Technology

    		 Semiconductors

    		 44.8%
    Merck & Co. Inc.

    		 MRK,
    +0.12%         		Health Care

    		 Pharmaceuticals

    		 44.8%
    Cigna Corp.

    		 CI,
    +0.19%         		Health Care

    		 Managed Health Care

    		 44.3%
    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more information about the companies.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    Don’t Miss: These 20 stocks were the biggest losers of 2022

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  • These 20 energy stocks are worth a look if you think oil prices will soar in 2023

    These 20 energy stocks are worth a look if you think oil prices will soar in 2023

    [ad_1]

    Harris Kupperman, the president of Praetorian Capital, made a couple of interesting calls heading into 2022. He predicted that stocks of the giant tech-oriented companies that led the bull market would be sold off, and that oil prices would continue to rise through the end of 2022.

    The first prediction came true, while the second one for oil prices fizzled. After rising to $130 in March, oil prices have fallen back to where they started the year. Then again, that second prediction still could have made you a lot of money because the share prices of oil companies kept rising anyway.

    That leads to a new prediction for 2023 and a related stock screen below.

    Here’s a chart showing the movement of front-month contract prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil
    CL.1,
    -0.62%
    since the end of 2021:


    FactSet

    Even though Kupperman didn’t get his oil price call right, the energy sector of the S&P 500
    SPX,
    -1.20%
    was up 60% for 2022 through Dec. 27, excluding dividends. That is the only one of the 11 S&P 500 sectors to show a gain in 2022. And the energy sector is also cheapest relative to earnings expectations, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.8, compared with 16.7 for the full S&P 500.

    WTI pulled back from its momentary peak at $130.50 in early March, but that didn’t reverse the long-term trend of low capital spending by oil and natural gas producers, which has given investors confidence that supplies will remain tight.

    Vicki Hollub, the CEO of Occidental Petroleum Corp.
    OXY,
    -3.50%
    — the best-performing S&P 500 stock of 2022 — said during a recent interview that there was “no pressure to increase production right now,” citing a $40 per barrel break-even point for oil prices.

    Kupperman now expects strong demand and low supplies to push oil as high as $200 a barrel in 2023.

    At the end of November, these 20 oil companies stood out as reasonable plays for 2023 based on expectations for free-cash-flow generation and dividend payments.

    For this next screen, we are only looking at ratings and consensus price targets among analysts polled by FactSet.

    There are 23 energy stocks in the S&P 500, and you can invest in that group easily by purchasing shares of the Energy Select SPDR ETF
    XLE,
    -2.24%    .
    We can expand the list of large-cap names by looking at the components of the iShares Global Energy ETF
    IXC,
    -1.91%    ,
    which holds all the energy stocks in the S&P 500 plus large players based outside the U.S.

    The top five holdings of IXC are:

    Company

    		 Ticker

    		 Country

    		 % of portfolio

    		 Share “buy” ratings

    		 Dec. 27 price

    		 Price target

    		 Implied 12-month upside potential
    Exxon Mobil Corp.

    		 XOM,
    -1.64%         		U.S.

    		 16.4%

    		 54%

    		 110.19

    		 118.89

    		 7.89%
    Chevron Corp.

    		 CVX,
    -1.48%         		U.S.

    		 11.5%

    		 54%

    		 179.63

    		 190.52

    		 6.06%
    Shell PLC

    		 SHEL,
    -0.70%         		U.K.

    		 7.8%

    		 83%

    		 23.67

    		 29.82

    		 25.99%
    TotalEnergies SE

    		 TTE,
    -1.40%         		France

    		 5.6%

    		 62%

    		 59.63

    		 64.40

    		 8.00%
    ConocoPhillips

    		 COP,
    -2.67%         		U.K.

    		 5.4%

    		 83%

    		 118.47

    		 140.84

    		 18.88%
    Source: FactSet

    Prices on the tables in this article are in local currencies.

    IXC holds 51 stocks. To expand the list for a stock screen, we added the energy stocks in the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index
    MID,
    -1.24%
    and the S&P Small Cap 600 Index
    SML,
    -1.89%
    to bring the list up to 91 companies, which we then pared to 83 covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet.

    Here are the 20 companies in the list with at least 75% “buy” or equivalent ratings that have the most upside potential over the next 12 months, based on consensus price targets:

    Company

    		 Ticker

    		 Country

    		 Share “buy” ratings

    		 Dec. 27 price

    		 Price target

    		 Implied 12-month upside potential
    EQT Corp.

    		 EQT,
    -7.82%         		U.S.

    		 83%

    		 36.34

    		 59.14

    		 63%
    Green Plains Inc.

    		 GPRE,
    -2.72%         		U.S.

    		 80%

    		 29.80

    		 43.40

    		 46%
    Cameco Corp.

    		 CCO,
    +0.33%         		Canada

    		 100%

    		 30.48

    		 44.25

    		 45%
    Talos Energy Inc.

    		 TALO,
    -8.40%         		U.S.

    		 86%

    		 19.77

    		 28.67

    		 45%
    Ranger Oil Corp. Class A

    		 ROCC,
    -6.22%         		U.S.

    		 100%

    		 41.33

    		 58.00

    		 40%
    Tourmaline Oil Corp.

    		 TOU,
    -4.92%         		Canada

    		 100%

    		 71.40

    		 98.83

    		 38%
    Civitas Resources Inc.

    		 CIVI,
    -4.06%         		U.S.

    		 100%

    		 58.82

    		 80.83

    		 37%
    Inpex Corp.

    		 1605,
    -2.08%         		Japan

    		 88%

    		 1,477.00

    		 1,965.56

    		 33%
    Diamondback Energy Inc.

    		 FANG,
    -2.26%         		U.S.

    		 84%

    		 137.58

    		 181.90

    		 32%
    Santos Limited

    		 STO,
    -3.12%         		Australia

    		 100%

    		 7.20

    		 9.26

    		 29%
    Matador Resources Co.

    		 MTDR,
    -3.98%         		U.S.

    		 79%

    		 57.59

    		 73.75

    		 28%
    Targa Resources Corp.

    		 TRGP,
    -2.63%         		U.S.

    		 95%

    		 73.89

    		 94.05

    		 27%
    Cenovus Energy Inc.

    		 CVE,
    -2.55%         		Canada

    		 84%

    		 26.24

    		 33.22

    		 27%
    Shell PLC

    		 SHEL,
    -0.70%         		U.K.

    		 83%

    		 23.67

    		 29.82

    		 26%
    Ampol Limited

    		 ALD,
    -2.89%         		Australia

    		 85%

    		 28.29

    		 35.01

    		 24%
    EOG Resources Inc.

    		 EOG,
    -3.54%         		U.S.

    		 79%

    		 132.08

    		 157.52

    		 19%
    ConocoPhillips

    		 COP,
    -2.67%         		U.S.

    		 83%

    		 118.47

    		 140.84

    		 19%
    Repsol SA

    		 REP,
    -0.66%         		Spain

    		 75%

    		 15.05

    		 17.88

    		 19%
    Halliburton Co.

    		 HAL,
    -3.03%         		U.S.

    		 86%

    		 39.27

    		 45.95

    		 17%
    Marathon Petroleum Corp.

    		 MPC,
    -1.97%         		U.S.

    		 76%

    		 116.82

    		 132.56

    		 13%
    Source: FactSet

    Click on the tickers for more information about the companies.

    Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

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  • Here are MarketWatch’s most popular Moneyist advice columns of 2022

    Here are MarketWatch’s most popular Moneyist advice columns of 2022

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    What fresh shenanigans and money dilemmas enthralled readers in 2022?

    Another year of broken promises, dodgy dealings and moving letters about how to get back on one’s feet after divorce, unemployment and even a 15-year abusive relationship. 

    The most widely-read Moneyist of 2022, however, was actually one of the shortest letters from someone called ‘Surprised Sister.” The answer, as is often the case, was not so simple, nor so short.

    Here is the No. 1 Moneyist column of the year: ‘We are surprised and bewildered’: My brother passed away and left his house, cash and possessions to charity. Can his siblings contest his will?

    My response: There are times to contest a will: a parent who was being controlled by a new friend or greedy child, and/or someone who was forced to change their will when they were not of sound mind.

    But her own legal advice notwithstanding, I suggested she should accept your brother’s wishes. Feeling aggrieved that she did not inherit his estate is not enough to break his will. 

    Separate the emotions from the finance, and the answer often reveals itself. But there were others that ran the gamut from romance to stocks. They other most-read columns are an eclectic bunch:

    Here are the 5 runner-ups:

    1. I had a date with a great guy. I didn’t drink, but his wine added $36 to our bill. We split the check evenly. Should I have spoken up?

    It would be nice to offer to take the booze off the check, you were a non-drinker, would you speak up at one drink or two or three, if your date split the entire bill 50/50? 

    The financial intricacies of dating are like an onion that can be peeled ad infinitum. We’ve had plenty to chew over. Paying for one of your date’s drinks is OK, paying for two is pushing it.

    1. My father offered his 3 kids equal monetary gifts. My siblings took cash. I took stock. It’s soared in value — now they’re crying foul

    “The Other Brother” wrote that his father offered three children a choice: stocks or cash. The other two siblings took the cash. He took the cash. The stock soared. Dems are the breaks.

    Her siblings could have chosen stocks over cash, but they wanted immediate gratification. That was their decision, and they are going to have to take ownership of their choice and live with it.

    1. I’m an unmarried stay-at-home mother in a 20-year relationship, but my boyfriend won’t put my name on the deed of our house. Am I unreasonable?

    They have been in a 20-year relationship and have a 10-year-old child. “Not on the Deed” said she and her partner have had several tense “discussions” about adding me to the deed.

    I told her that her contribution to your partnership is valuable, her sense of worth is valuable, and her role as a homemaker and a mother is also valuable. Yes, he should add her.

    1. My friend got us free theater tickets. When I got home, she texted me, ‘Can you get our next meal or activity?’ Am I obliged to treat her?

    Even amidst the fights over inheritances, some breaches of social and financial etiquette seem so bizarre some people might think, ‘That behavior is too outrageous to be believable.” 

    The letter writer received free theater tickets, they split the bill 50/50 even though her friend had a cocktail, and she paid $10 for parking. Is he obliged to take her out again? No-can-do.

    1. My date chose an exclusive L.A. restaurant. After dinner, he accepted my credit card — and we split a $600 bill. Shouldn’t he have paid?

    Another dating story, this time where the guy chose a fancy restaurant and, as the date wore on, things took a turn for the worst, at least in the letter writer’s eyes: She was asked to split the bill.

    What if they didn’t get along? What if he was an abortion-rights supporter and she was anti-abortion? What if he was a Republican and she was a Democrat? Or vice-versa?  Always be prepared to pay.

    Follow Quentin Fottrell on Twitter.

    You can email The Moneyist with any financial and ethical questions related to coronavirus at qfottrell@marketwatch.com.

    Check out the Moneyist private Facebook group, where we look for answers to life’s thorniest money issues. Readers write to me with all sorts of dilemmas. Post your questions, tell me what you want to know more about, or weigh in on the latest Moneyist columns.

    The Moneyist regrets he cannot reply to questions individually.

    More from Quentin Fottrell:

    ‘I’m left with a $100 Bûche de Noël for 10 people — and no place to go’: My friends canceled Christmas dinner. Should I end the 30-year friendship?

    I met my wife in 2019 and we married in 2020. I put her name on the deed of my $998,000 California home. Now I want a divorce. What can I do?

    I want to meet someone rich. Is that so wrong?’ I’m 46, earn $210,000, and own a $700,000 home. I’m tired of dating ‘losers.’

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  • 5 things not to buy in 2023

    5 things not to buy in 2023

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    It’s been a year of contradictions.

    The recession drum beats on, interest rates are rising, and the stock market has taken a tumble, and yet retail sales have risen 6.5% in the last 12 months, trailing a 7.1% increase in the cost of living.

    There are other reasons people should consider cutting back on spending in 2023. The personal saving rate — meaning personal saving as a percentage of disposable income, or the share of income left after paying taxes and spending money — hit 2.4% in the third quarter from 3.4% in the prior quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said.

    “There are signs that people are pulling back on certain expenditures. ”

    That is the lowest level since the Great Recession and the eighth-lowest quarterly rate on record (since 1947). Adjusted for inflation, savings are down 88% from their 2020 peak and 61% lower than before the pandemic, according to government data. The personal saving rate hit 2.4% in November vs. 2.2% in October. 

    Are people buying stocks during a bearish market, and/or have they run out of their pandemic-era savings? Whatever the reasons, more judicious investing and spending decisions seem to be the most prudent approach — especially given the uncertain economic outlook for 2023.

    There are signs that people are already pulling back on certain expenditures. Although retail sales are up on the year, they did decline 0.6% month-on-month in November to mark their biggest decline in almost a year, largely because of weak car sales.

    About those new cars: New-vehicle total sales for 2022 are projected to reach 13,687,000 units, down 8.4% on the year, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. MarketWatch reporter Philip van Doorn explains all the reasons why you may wish to skip buying a new car in 2023, in addition to their rising prices.

    So what else should you save your money on in 2023? MarketWatch writers give their verdict below.

    SPACs

    During the pandemic, people loved to buy special purpose acquisitions companies, known as SPACs. In 2021, 613 SPACs listed on U.S. stock exchanges through initial public offerings, according to SPAC Insider. The year before, there were 248 SPAC IPOs. There had never been more than 100 of these before in a single year. There were SPACs associated with Donald Trump and Serena Williams. There were so many, that one was called Just Another Acquisition Corp. 

    SPACs exist as a means to take private companies public, and theoretically give these shell companies a faster and less regulatory burdensome means to access public capital. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission warned investors last April that so-called advantages of the SPAC process, such as reduced legal liability, may not prove to be so solid if tested in court.

    The SPACs raised money even though they had no commercial operations or business, and tried to use the cash to buy something that did exist. But investors who bought SPACs that merged with private companies since 2015 have suffered losses of 37%, on average, a year after the merger, according to a recent study.  The SPAC and New Issue ETF 
    SPCX,
    +0.37%
    has slipped 12% this year. The frenzy for SPACs has predictably gone bust. But if you see one, just stay away from it.

    — Nathan Vardi

    Crypto 

    There are two main reasons not to invest in cryptocurrency in 2023, and neither has to do with the precipitous drop in value for most of the major coins in the last year, including but not limited to bitcoin
    BTCUSD,
    -1.11%    ,
    ethereum
    ETHE,
    -2.71%
    and tether
    USDTUSD,
    -0.02%    .
    Investors have long been conditioned to buy the dip and find value where others fear to tread, and then make money on the upswing. 

    Crypto is different because there’s no correlation to long-held market theories, and buying it amounts more to speculation than to investing. That might seem semantic, but if you look at financial planning holistically, then you treat investing as an exercise in risk tolerance — and crypto is all risk. 

    Which leads to the other main reason to avoid crypto in the next year: If you do buy it, there’s really no safe way to store it. There’s no federal insurance covering exchange failures and little cyber-theft protection for individuals. That leaves you on your own, which is not a good place to be with your money.

    — Beth Pinsker

    Meta Quest headsets

    On the consumer front, if you’re really into virtual reality, there is nothing wrong with jumping on the new Meta Quest two and Meta Quest Pro headsets that were introduced in 2022 by Meta Platforms Inc. 
    META,
    -0.78%    .

    The problem is that you might feel like you bought a BlackBerry
    BB,
    -3.42%
    phone in early 2007. Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    -1.40%
    is expected to finally show off what engineers at the Silicon Valley giant have been cooking up in a years-long project to jump into augmented and virtual reality, and consumers are expected to at least get a glimpse at Apple’s attempt this year, if not a chance to buy whatever the company produces. 

    The headsets don’t come cheap: Meta said earlier this year it was raising the price of Meta Quest 2 headsets by $100 to $399.99 (128GB) and $499.99 (256GB). The iPhone’s introduction 15 years ago changed the way people look at smartphones, and Apple’s expected jump into this field in 2023 could leave anyone who spent their money on a Meta Quest headset wishing for a new reality.

    — Jeremy Owens

    Meme stocks 

    Struggling companies with business models that appear to some to be dying and/or struggling do not generally perform well in the stock market. But during the pandemic these companies often had stocks that soared. What drove them was social media sentiment, driven on platforms like Reddit, by a swarm of retail investors. 

    There was video game retailer GameStop
    GME,
    -7.42%    ,
    movie theater chain AMC
    AMC,
    -8.43%    ,
    and smartphone dinosaur Blackberry. AMC recently announced the sale of another $110 million in stock, adding to a total that has already exceeded $2 billion since the theater chain got swept up into meme-stock madness. CEO Adam Aron wrote on Twitter that the move put the company “in a much stronger cash position.”

    GameStop recently reported its seventh consecutive quarterly loss and reiterated its goal of returning to profitability in the near term, but analysts have signaled that many challenges lie ahead. During the company’s recent third-quarter conference call, Chief Executive Officer Matt Furlong said that GameStop would be open to exploring acquisitions of a strategic asset or complimentary business if they were available “in the right price range.”

    Buying meme companies like this worked for some in a booming stock market fueled by ultra-low interest rates. But we are now in a bear market with interest rates that are elevated. Corporate fundamentals are back in vogue. So are quaint investment ideas like cashflow. More likely than not, the days of buying meme stocks are over.

    — Nathan Vardi

    Tesla cars

    In recent years, Tesla Inc.
    TSLA,
    -8.25%
    has stood alone as the best option for electric vehicles, while other manufacturers struggled to get production running. But in 2023, there should be many more types of electric cars available, at prices that are expected to trend downward as the year goes along. Teslas range in price from $46,990 for the Tesla Model 3 to $138,880 for the Tesla Model X Plaid. 

    With major manufacturers such as General Motors Co.
    GM,
    -0.73%    ,
    Ford Motor Co.
    FORD,
    -2.68%    ,
    Toyota Corp. and Volkswagen
    VOW,
    -0.77%
    VLKAF,
    -1.15%
    jumping into the fray, and young Tesla wannabes like Rivian Automotive Inc.
    RIVN,
    -7.11%    ,
    Lucid Group Inc.
    LCID,
    -7.24%
    and FIsker Inc.
    FSR,
    -6.19%
     expected to start producing cars, consumers will have many more options for EVs. 

    Meanwhile, Tesla has done little to update the Model 3 since it was introduced in 2017, and has increased prices at a level that Chief Executive Elon Musk has admitted is “embarrassing” for a company that claimed to have a goal of mass-market pricing for EVs. 

    The average price of a new EV is $64,249, while a new gas car is $48,281, according to​​ Liz Najman, a climate scientist and communications and research manager at Recurrent Auto, an EV research and analytics firm focused on the used-vehicle market. After years of not having much choice beyond Tesla for EVs, 2023 appears to be the year that changes.

    — Jeremy Owens

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  • Southwest, NIO, AMC, Tesla, and More Stock Market Movers Tuesday

    Southwest, NIO, AMC, Tesla, and More Stock Market Movers Tuesday

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    This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers visit http://www.djreprints.com.

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-movers-tesla-alibaba-southwest-51671810917

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  • Southwest Airlines cancels two-thirds of its flights, with more cancellations planned

    Southwest Airlines cancels two-thirds of its flights, with more cancellations planned

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    Southwest Airlines Co. canceled more than two-thirds of its flights Monday and plans to slash its schedules Tuesday and Wednesday, in a meltdown that stranded thousands of customers and that worsened while other airlines began to recover from the holiday winter storm.

    “We had a tough day today. In all likelihood we’ll have another tough day tomorrow as we work our way out of this,” Chief Executive Bob Jordan said in an interview Monday evening. “This is the largest scale event that I’ve ever seen.” 

    Southwest
    LUV,
    +1.78%
    plans to operate just over one-third of its typical schedule in the coming days to give itself leeway for crews to get into the right positions, he said, adding that the reduced schedule could be extended.

    Southwest’s more than 2,800 scrapped flights Monday, the highest of any major U.S. airline, came as the Dallas-based airline proved unable to stabilize its operations amid the past week’s storm. Between Thursday and Monday, the airline canceled about 8,000 flights, according to FlightAware.

    On Monday, the Department of Transportation called Southwest’s rate of cancellations “disproportionate and unacceptable” and said it would examine whether the cancellations were controllable and whether the airline is complying with its customer service plan.

    Ryan Green, Southwest’s chief commercial officer, said in an interview the airline is taking steps such as covering customers’ reasonable travel costs—including hotels, rental cars and tickets on other airlines, and will be communicating the process for customers to have expenses reimbursed. He also said customers whose flights are being canceled as the airline recovers are entitled to refunds if they opt not to travel. 

    The troubles at Southwest intensified Monday despite generally improving weather conditions and warming temperatures throughout much of the eastern half of the country, which had been pummeled by snow, wind and subfreezing temperatures in recent days.

    An expanded version of this report appears on WSJ.com.

    Trending at WSJ.com:

    SPAC boom ends in frenzy of liquidation

    Wall Street nailed earnings but missed the bear market

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  • This company has wiped out more investor wealth in 2022 than Tesla

    This company has wiped out more investor wealth in 2022 than Tesla

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    Elon Musk has been trying this week to defend Tesla’s abysmal stock performance in 2022. The electric vehicle giant has seen its stock plummet by 61% this year, making it the 11th-worst performing stock in the S&P 500 in 2022.

    “As bank savings account interest rates, which are guaranteed, start to approach stock market returns, which are *not* guaranteed, people will increasingly move their money out of stocks into cash, thus causing stocks to drop,” Musk tweeted.

    You might expect that Tesla’s stock drop has wiped out more investor wealth than any other stock in the world this year. But you would be wrong.

    If we look at declines in market capitalization — the value of companies’ common-shares outstanding — Tesla
    TSLA,
    -1.76%
    has been the fourth worst-performing stock in the benchmark S&P 500 this year, as of 1 p.m. ET on Dec. 21:

    Company

    		 Ticker

    		 2022 market cap change ($bil)

    		 Intraday market cap on Dec. 21 ($bil)

    		 Dec. 31, 2021 market cap ($bil)

    		 2022 price change
    Amazon.com Inc.

    		 AMZN,
    +1.74%         		-$805

    		 $886

    		 $1,691

    		 -48%
    Apple Inc.

    		 AAPL,
    -0.28%         		-$753

    		 $2,160

    		 $2,913

    		 -24%
    Microsoft Corp.

    		 MSFT,
    +0.23%         		-$700

    		 $1,825

    		 $2,525

    		 -27%
    Tesla Inc.

    		 TSLA,
    -1.76%         		-$622

    		 $439

    		 $1,061

    		 -61%
    Meta Platforms Inc. Class A

    		 META,
    +0.79%         		-$466

    		 $318

    		 $784

    		 -64%
    Nvidia Corp.

    		 NVDA,
    -0.87%         		-$329

    		 $406

    		 $735

    		 -44%
    PayPal Holdings Inc.

    		 PYPL,
    +0.67%         		-$143

    		 $79

    		 $222

    		 -63%
    Netflix Inc.

    		 NFLX,
    -0.94%         		-$134

    		 $133

    		 $267

    		 -51%
    Walt Disney Co.

    		 DIS,
    +1.55%         		-$122

    		 $160

    		 $282

    		 -44%
    Salesforce Inc.

    		 CRM,
    +0.19%         		-$119

    		 $131

    		 $250

    		 -49%
    Source: FactSet

    On a percentage basis, all these stocks have performed worse than the full S&P 500, which has fallen 19%, excluding dividends.

    Amazon.com Inc.
    AMZN,
    +1.74%
    has erased more shareholder wealth than any other publicly traded company in 2022. In total, investors in Amazon have lost $804.6 billion this year. The stock is down 48% in 2022.

    Apple Inc.
    AAPL,
    -0.28%
    and Microsoft Corp.
    MSFT,
    +0.23%
    have also suffered larger market-cap declines than Tesla, by virtue of their sheer size.

    The companies have different fiscal and annual period ends, but if we look at data for the past three reported quarters and compare to the same period a year earlier, here’s how the four stack up:

    Company

    		 Ticker

    		 Change in sales for three quarters from year-earlier period

    		 Change in EPS for three quarters from year-earlier period
    Amazon.com Inc.

    		 AMZN,
    +1.74%
     

    		 10%

    		 N/A
    Apple Inc.

    		  
    AAPL,
    -0.28%         		6%

    		 2%
    Microsoft Corp.

    		  
    MSFT,
    +0.23%         		14%

    		 -2%
    Tesla Inc.

    		  
    TSLA,
    -1.76%         		58%

    		 169%
    Source: FactSet

    Amazon showed a net loss of $3 billion for the first three quarters of 2022 as the company neared the end of its extraordinary multiyear effort to build out its warehouse and fulfillment infrastructure. For the first three quarters of 2021, the company booked $19 billion in profits. When announcing Amazon’s third-quarter results CEO Andy Jassy said the company was working methodically toward “a stronger cost structure for the business moving forward.”

    The incredible growth of Amazon’s cloud business has stalled and disappointed the expectations the company had nurtured on Wall Street. The Amazon Web Services business is facing increasing competition from the likes of Microsoft and its customers are pulling back. Meanwhile, retail sales have also come in weak going into the Christmas and holiday season. 

    Amazon’s stock has declined 22% since it closed at $110.96 on Oct. 27, right before it disappointed investors not only with its third-quarter results, but with its outlook: It expects to break even during the holiday quarter. Analysts polled by FactSet had previously expected a profit of more than $5 billion.

    Tesla stands in contrast to Amazon, as you can see on the table above. Its sales grew by 58% during the first three quarters of 2022 from the year-earlier period and its earnings per share rose nearly threefold.

    This has been a year of significant declines for shares of giant tech-oriented companies, especially those that had traded at lofty price-to-earnings valuations — that group includes Amazon and Tesla. In fact, these companies have given up all their pandemic era gains int he stock market.

    But with Tesla’s results so outstanding through the first three quarters of 2022, it raises the question: How much of the drop in the electric car makers share price was tied to Musk’s actions as CEO of Twitter, which he acquired on Oct. 27 after a monthslong saga? And how much of a relief rally, if any, might there be for Tesla if Musk, as expected, steps down as Twitter CEO?

    How about some bottom-feeding?

    Here’s the same list of 10 stocks in the S&P 500 that have seen the largest declines in market cap this year, with a summary of analysts’ ratings, consensus price targets and declines in their forward price-to-earnings ratios:

    Company

    		 Ticker

    		 Share “buy” ratings

    		 Dec. 21 closing price

    		 Cons. price target

    		 Implied 12-month upside potential

    		 Forward P/E as of Dec. 20

    		 Forward P/E as of Dec. 31, 2021
    Amazon.com Inc.

    		 AMZN,
    +1.74%         		91%

    		 $85.19

    		 $134.85

    		 58%

    		 49.3

    		 64.9
    Apple Inc.

    		 AAPL,
    -0.28%         		74%

    		 $132.30

    		 $173.44

    		 31%

    		 21.4

    		 30.2
    Microsoft Corp.

    		 MSFT,
    +0.23%         		91%

    		 $241.80

    		 $293.06

    		 21%

    		 23.7

    		 34.0
    Tesla Inc.

    		 TSLA,
    -1.76%         		63%

    		 $137.80

    		 $272.64

    		 98%

    		 24.6

    		 120.3
    Meta Platforms Inc. Class A

    		 META,
    +0.79%         		63%

    		 $117.09

    		 $145.45

    		 24%

    		 14.5

    		 23.5
    Nvidia Corp.

    		 NVDA,
    -0.87%         		68%

    		 $160.85

    		 $195.72

    		 22%

    		 39.2

    		 58.0
    PayPal Holdings Inc.

    		 PYPL,
    +0.67%         		71%

    		 $68.76

    		 $104.32

    		 52%

    		 14.5

    		 36.0
    Netflix Inc.

    		 NFLX,
    -0.94%         		47%

    		 $288.19

    		 $302.89

    		 5%

    		 28.4

    		 45.6
    Walt Disney Co.

    		 DIS,
    +1.55%         		82%

    		 $87.02

    		 $119.60

    		 37%

    		 19.8

    		 34.2
    Salesforce Inc.

    		 CRM,
    +0.19%         		78%

    		 $128.45

    		 $195.18

    		 52%

    		 23.4

    		 53.5
    Source: FactSet

    A majority of analysts see a golden path ahead for 2023 for all of these stocks except for Netflix.

    For more information about any of these companies, click the tickers.

    Click here for a detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

    Don’t miss: 11 high-yield dividend stocks that are Wall Street’s favorites for 2023

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  • Consumer sentiment creeps up at year end as worries about inflation ease

    Consumer sentiment creeps up at year end as worries about inflation ease

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    The numbers: A survey of consumer sentiment rose to 59.7 in December, buoyed by falling gas prices and a rebound in stocks earlier in the month. Yet Americans are generally pessimistic about the economy.

    The final reading in the sentiment poll marked a small increase from the initial 59.1 result earlier in the month, the University of Michigan reported.

    The index increased from 56.8 in November.

    Consumer sentiment is still extremely weak, however. The index fell to a record low of 50 in June, just half as much as the 101 reading in the last month before the pandemic in 2020.

    Key details: A gauge that measures what consumers think about their financial situation — and the current health of the economy — rose slightly to 59.4 last month. One year ago, the index stood much higher at 74.2.

    Another measure that asks about expectations for the next six months registered 59.9, up from 55.6 in November. It was also well below year-ago levels, though.

    Americans view inflation as somewhat less of a threat. They expect the inflation rate in the next year to average about 4.4%, compared to 4.9% in the prior month.

    In the longer run, consumers see inflation falling toward 2.9%.

    Top Federal Reserve officials pay close attention to inflation expectations because it could be a harbinger of future price trends.

    The current 12-month rate of inflation is 7.1%, based on the consumer-price index. It’s fallen from a peak of 9.1% last summer.

    Big picture: Falling gas prices and a slowdown in inflation have given consumers something to cheer about during the holidays. But they consumers are worried about what the future will bring.

    The Federal Reserve is rapidly raising interest rates to slow inflation even further, but higher borrowing costs are weakening the economy. That’s likely to result in rising unemployment in 2023 — and perhaps even a recession.

    Looking ahead: “While the sizable decline in short-run inflation expectations may be welcome news, consumers continued to exhibit substantial uncertainty over the future path of prices,” said survey director Joanne Hsu.

    Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.53%
    and S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.59%
    XXX in Friday trades.

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  • High U.S. inflation is on the wane, PCE price gauge shows

    High U.S. inflation is on the wane, PCE price gauge shows

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    The numbers: A key gauge of U.S. prices rose just 0.1% in November, marking the fifth month in a row in which inflation eased after peaking at a 40-year high over the summer.

    The yearly rate of inflation, meanwhile, slowed to 5.5% in November from 6.1% in the prior month, based on the personal consumption expenditures index. That’s the smallest increase since October 2021.

    Key details: The PCE index is viewed by the Federal Reserve as the best measure of inflation, especially the core gauge that strips out volatile food and energy costs.

    The core index rose 0.2% last month, matching Wall Street’s forecast.

    The increase in the core rate of inflation in the past 12 months relaxed to 4.7% from 5%. That’s also the lowest level since October 2021..

    Unlike it’s better-known cousin, the consumer price index, the PCE gauge takes into account how consumers change their buying habits due to rising prices.

    They might substitute cheaper goods such as ground beef for more expensive ones like ribeye to keep costs down. Or buy no-name denims instead of more fashionable jeans.

    The CPI showed inflation rising at a 7.1% yearly rate in November.

    Big picture: The rate of inflation is coming down, but not fast enough for the Fed.

    The central bank is worried a prolonged bout of high inflation could spur workers to keep asking for higher and higher wages, making it harder to get prices back under control. The cost of labor is the biggest expense for most companies.

    The Fed plans to raise interest rates even higher to slow the economy enough to alleviate upward wage pressures, a strategy that’s bound to raise unemployment and potentially trigger a recession.

    Looking ahead: “The economy is moving in the right direction from the Federal Reserve’s perspective at the end of 2022, but not quickly enough,” said chief economist Gus Faucher of PNC Financial Services. “The Fed is concerned that strong wage growth will lead to persistent increases in services prices and high overall inflation.”

    Read: Inflation appears to be slowing, but the Fed isn’t turning down the heat

    Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.53%
    and S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.59%
    were set to open higher in Friday trades.

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  • Consumer spending barely rose at start of U.S. holiday shopping season

    Consumer spending barely rose at start of U.S. holiday shopping season

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    The numbers: Consumer spending rose a tepid 0.1% in November, suggesting greater caution by households and heavy discounting in the holiday shopping season.

    Analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.2% increase.

    Incomes climbed 0.4% last month, the government said Friday, a bit faster than the rate of inflation.

    Key details: Americans spent less on goods in November, especially new cars and trucks. Higher interest rates have put a dent in car sales while excess inventories forced companies to cut the prices of other products.

    Consumers may have also started their holiday shopping early, economists say. Spending rose a sharper 0.9% in October.

    Spending on services, meanwhile, increased again. Americans are spending more on things like recreation and travel and not buying as many goods as they were during the pandemic when they were cooped up at home.

    The U.S. savings rate rate edged up to 2.4% last month from 2.2%, which was the second lowest savings rate on record going back to 1959.

    Households have dipped into their savings to support their spending habits because incomes are not rising as fast as inflation.

    The so-called PCE price index is up 5.5% in the past year. And the better known consumer price index has risen 7.1% in the same span.

    Big picture:  Consumer spending is the main engine of the economy, but it might be starting to sputter in the face of rising interest rates. The Federal Reserve has jacked up rates to try to tame inflation.

    What’s likely to keep spending going up for the time being is a strong jobs market. If layoffs increase and unemployment rises, however, the economy is bound to suffer.

    Higher borrowing costs depress the economy by making it more expensive to buy a home or car or take out a loan.

    Looking ahead: “It seems reasonable to expect people to become more cautious, now that they have run down about half of their accumulated pandemic savings, and labor market conditions are softening,” said chief economist Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.

    Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA,
    +0.53%
    and S&P 500
    SPX,
    +0.59%
    were set to open higher in Friday trades.

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  • House Jan. 6 select committee expected to advise Justice Department to hit Trump with criminal charges

    House Jan. 6 select committee expected to advise Justice Department to hit Trump with criminal charges

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    WASHINGTON (AP) — The House Jan. 6 committee is wrapping up its investigation of the violent 2021 U.S. Capitol insurrection, with lawmakers expected to cap one of the most exhaustive and aggressive congressional probes in memory with an extraordinary recommendation: The Justice Department should consider criminal charges against former President Donald Trump.

    At a final meeting on Monday, the panel’s seven Democrats and two Republicans are poised to recommend criminal charges against Trump and potentially against associates and staff who helped him launch a multifaceted pressure campaign to try to overturn the 2020 election.

    Context: What to expect as House Jan. 6 panel readies final report on Trump’s ‘attempted coup’

    Also: Jan. 6 select committee to review referral recommendations from Cheney, Raskin, Schiff and Lofgren at Monday session

    While a criminal referral is mostly symbolic, with the Justice Department ultimately deciding whether to prosecute Trump or others, it is a decisive end to a probe that had an almost singular focus from the start.

    “I think the president has violated multiple criminal laws and I think you have to be treated like any other American who breaks the law, and that is you have to be prosecuted,” Rep. Adam Schiff, a Democrat from Southern California and a member of the panel, said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

    The panel, set to dissolve on Jan. 3 with the advent of a Republican-led House, has conducted more than 1,000 interviews, held 10 well-watched public hearings and collected more than a million documents since it launched in July 2021. As it has gathered the massive trove of evidence, the members have become emboldened in declaring that Trump is to blame for the violent attack on the Capitol by his supporters almost two years ago.

    From the archives (June 2022): Fox News is notable exception as prime-time Jan. 6 committee hearing blankets TV airwaves

    Also (July 2022): Trump White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson’s live testimony before Jan. 6 select committee was a TV ratings hit: Nielsen data

    After beating their way past police, injuring many of them, the Jan. 6 rioters stormed the Capitol and interrupted the certification of President Joe Biden’s win, echoing Trump’s lies about widespread election fraud and sending lawmakers and others running for their lives.

    The attack came after weeks of Trump’s efforts to overturn his defeat — a campaign that was extensively detailed by the committee in its multiple public hearings. Many of Trump’s former aides testified about his unprecedented pressure on states, federal officials and on Vice President Mike Pence to find a way to thwart the popular will.

    “This is someone who in multiple ways tried to pressure state officials to find votes that didn’t exist, this is someone who tried to interfere with a joint session, even inciting a mob to attack the Capitol,” Schiff said. “If that’s not criminal, then I don’t know what it is.”

    See: Justice Department urges judge to hold Trump’s legal team in contempt over Mar-a-Lago case

    Members of the committee have said that the referrals for other individuals may also include ethics violations, legal misconduct and campaign finance violations. Lawmakers have suggested in particular that their recommended charges against Trump could include conspiracy to defraud the United States, obstruction of an official proceeding of Congress and insurrection.

    On insurrection, Schiff said Sunday that “if you look at Donald Trump’s acts and you match them up against the statute, it’s a pretty good match.” He said that the committee will focus on those individuals — presumably Trump — for whom they believe there is the strongest evidence.

    See: North Carolina state investigators say they’ve completed voter-fraud probe of Trump chief of staff Meadows

    Also: Nevada elections department subpoenaed in Trump 2020 election investigation

    And: Trump ally Kari Lake pursues formal challenge to loss in race for governor of Arizona

    While a so-called criminal referral has no real legal standing, it is a forceful statement by the committee and adds to political pressure already on Attorney General Merrick Garland and special counsel Jack Smith, who is conducting an investigation into Jan. 6 and Trump’s actions.

    The committee is also expected at the hearing to preview its massive final report, which will include findings, interview transcripts and legislative recommendations. Lawmaker have said a portion of that report will be released Monday.

    “We obviously want to complete the story for the American people,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin, a Maryland Democrat and constitutional scholar who serves on the select committee. “Everybody has come on a journey with us and we want a satisfactory conclusion, such that people feel that Congress has done its job.”

    The panel was formed in the summer of 2021 after Senate Republicans blocked the formation of what would have been a bipartisan, independent commission to investigate the insurrection. That opposition spurred the Democratic-controlled House to form a committee of its own. House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy of California, a Trump ally, decided not to participate after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi rejected some of his appointments. That left an opening for two anti-Trump Republicans in the House — Reps. Liz Cheney of Wyoming and Adam Kinzinger of Illinois — to join the seven Democrats serving on the committee.

    From the archives (January 2021): Kevin McCarthy becomes poster boy for Republicans walking back their recent Trump criticism

    While the committee’s mission was to take a comprehensive accounting of the insurrection and educate the public about what happened, they’ve also aimed their work at an audience of one: the attorney general. Lawmakers on the panel have openly pressured Garland to investigate Trump’s actions, and last month he appointed a special counsel, Smith, to oversee several probes related to Trump, including those related to the insurrection.

    In court documents earlier this year, the committee suggested criminal charges against Trump could include conspiracy to defraud the United States and obstruction of an official proceeding of Congress.

    Wall Street Journal: Trump tax returns may be released after House panel meets Tuesday

    In a “conspiracy to defraud the United States,” the committee argues that evidence supports an inference that Trump and his allies “entered into an agreement to defraud the United States” when they disseminated misinformation about election fraud and pressured state and federal officials to assist in that effort. Trump still says he won the election to this day.

    The panel also asserts that Trump obstructed an official proceeding, the joint session of Congress in which the Electoral College votes are certified. The committee said Trump either attempted or succeeded at obstructing, influencing or impeding the ceremonial process on Jan. 6 and “did so corruptly” by pressuring Pence to try to overturn the results as he presided over the session. Pence declined to do so.

    The committee may make ethics referrals for five House Republicans — including McCarthy — who ignored congressional subpoenas from the panel. Those referrals are unlikely to result in punishment since Republicans are set to take over the House majority in January.

    Read on: McCarthy’s long-held speaker ambition set to come to a head when new Congress convenes in January

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  • These are the top 10 mistakes people make when planning for retirement

    These are the top 10 mistakes people make when planning for retirement

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    We all make mistakes in planning for our golden years. But which are the worst, which are the most common, and which ones do we all need to watch out for?

    Financial planners have weighed in with the top 10 they see among clients. It’s emerged in a survey conducted by money managers Natixis and just released. And it’s a terrific checklist for anyone who wants to see how they’re doing, and what they need to change.

    The…

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  • It’s Argentina vs. France in the World Cup final: Here’s everything you should know about the matchup

    It’s Argentina vs. France in the World Cup final: Here’s everything you should know about the matchup

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    After a month of stiff competition in Qatar, the 2022 World Cup’s final matchup is finally set.

    Argentina learned Wednesday that defending World Cup winner France will be its opponent in the final on Sunday. France topped a history-making Morocco side 2-0 a day after Argentina shut out Croatia, which lost to France in the 2018 final, a day earlier. Croatia and Morocco square off for third place in the tournament.

    Related: Why is 2022 Qatar World Cup so controversial? Here’s a list of issues overshadowing FIFA’s tournament.

    Argentina and France, led by Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé, respectively, were two among a handful of favorites heading into the quadrennial footballing spectacle.

    Here’s what you need to know ahead of the World Cup final.

    When is the World Cup final?

    The tournament title match will be played Sunday, Dec. 18, at 10 a.m. Eastern time. That’s 6 p.m. in Qatar, earlier than the tournament matches have typically been played.

    The World Cup final can be watched in the U.S. on Fox
    FOX,
    -0.90%
     
    FOXA,
    -0.72%
    and Telemundo, owned by Comcast
    CMCSA,
    -3.70%
    unit NBCUniversal. Fox is available through nearly all cable providers, and cord cutters can stream the match live through FuboTV FUBO, SlingTV, the Alphabet-owned
    GOOG,
    -0.56%
     
    GOOGL,
    -0.59%
    YouTubeTV and Comcast’s Peacock.

    Who’s favored to win?

    Both teams have been oddsmakers’ favorite in every one of their 2022 World Cup matches leading up to the final. But for the grand finale, France is seen a slight favorite over Argentina. France is +175 to win, which carries an implied probability of 36.4%, while the Argentina team is being given a 35.1% chance to win, according to the implied-probability data taken from DraftKings’
    DKNG,
    -1.60%
     odds on Wednesday. The outstanding percentage would account for a draw, though all matches beginning in the knockout stage go to a penalty shootout if a score is tied at the end of regulation and at the end of two 15-minute halves of overtime.

    What’s at stake?

    A win for France would mean back-to-back men’s World Cup wins for the European nation, and France’s third title in history.

    Likewise, a win for Argentina would mean its third World Cup title, and the first World Cup win for legend of the game Messi.

    Related: Budweiser says it will award unconsumed Qatar beer to the World Cup winner

    A record-breaking amount of prize money will also be at stake. FIFA has allocated $440 million in prize money this year, up from $400 million for the 2018 World Cup, hosted by Russia. (FIFA announced on the same day in December 2010 its selection of Russia and Qatar to host the global game’s marquee event in 2018 and 2022, respectively.)

    This year’s winning side will get $42 million, up $4 million from the 2018 tournament.

    The runner-up will receive $30 million, and the third- and fourth-place teams are going home with $27 million and $25 million. As for the rest, the teams that lost in the quarterfinals will each receive $17 million; teams that lost in the second round will get $13 million each; and teams knocked out in the group stage (including the U.S.) will get $9 million each. All 32 qualifying teams also received $1.5 million for securing their spots in the tournament. Only Qatar, as the host country, did not have to play its way in through regional competition.

    Is this really Lionel Messi’s last World Cup?

    Messi, playing in his fifth career World Cup, has said that this would probably be the last time he plays in the competition.

    Failing over the years to achieve in international competition for Argentina what he has in club play (save an appearance in the 2014 final against Germany and a Copa America title in 2021), chiefly with Barcelona in Spain and now with Paris Saint-Germain in France, where he and Mbappé are teammates, Messi has previously announced and rescinded an intent to step back as an international. Only now he’s 35.

    From the archives (January 2010): Club or country? Soccer World Cup revives old tensions

    “Yes. Surely, yes,” Messi said when asked whether Sunday’s game will be his last at a World Cup. “There’s a lot of years until the next one, and I don’t think I have it in me, and finishing like this is best.”

    The Margin: Could Qatar’s ‘reusable’ World Cup stadium end up in Uruguay? There are some amazing plans for tournament venues.

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