ReportWire

Tag: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  • States begin to see job losses from Trump’s cuts, housing and spending slowdowns

    [ad_1]

    Cars are flooded in Petersburg, Va., in July. Many of the canceled federal contracts that have contributed to job losses in the state involved flooding control. (Photo courtesy of Petersburg Fire Rescue & Emergency Services)

    Virginia and New Jersey may be among the states most affected by the hiring slowdown that enraged President Donald Trump when it appeared in an Aug. 1 jobs report showing the United States had 258,000 fewer jobs than initially reported in May and June.

    Such revisions to earlier reports are based on more up-to-date payroll data and are routine. But the scale in this case was shocking — showing the smallest monthly job gains since pandemic-era December 2020 and the largest jobs revision, outside recessions, since 1968.

    In response, Trump declared the numbers were wrong, fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief, and offered as a replacement E.J. Antoni, a loyalist who has proposed suspending the jobs report. Trump falsely said in a Truth Social post that the revised jobs numbers were “RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad.”

    Beyond those attention-grabbing actions, though, the numbers demonstrate the real effects of Trump’s work slashing the federal government.

    A Stateline analysis of the data shows how several states, especially Virginia and New Jersey, shed jobs in the second quarter of this year, which includes May and June.

    In Virginia, there were job losses blamed on canceled federal contracts in Northern Virginia as part of cuts made by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, known as DOGE. Meanwhile, a slow housing market shuttered a plywood factory in the southern part of the state, and DOGE efforts canceled flooding control contracts on the coast.

    Jay Ford, Virginia policy manager at the Chesapeake Bay Foundation, told a state legislative committee in June that $50 million in contracts were slashed in the Hampton Roads area near the coast, causing a spike in unemployment claims.

    That included $20 million to address flooding in Hampton, where almost a quarter of homes are in flood zones, and $24 million to repair a Portsmouth dam that could fail in a major storm, he said.

    “This is work that you desperately needed,” Ford said at the committee hearing. “There was a real focus on certain buzzwords like ‘climate’ or ‘resilience,’ and I think people conflated some of these projects as somehow unnecessary.”

    For instance, the American Institutes for Research announced 233 layoffs in Virginia in May and 50 in Maryland since the beginning of the year. The not-for-profit organization’s projects include working with school districts to solve achievement gaps and absenteeism, creating AI-driven workforce training, and addressing health care issues such as improving kidney disease care while reducing Medicare costs and strengthening access to health care by keeping rural hospitals open.

    “The changes occurring in the federal government have brought significant challenges for many federal contractors, including AIR,” said Dana Tofig, the company’s spokesperson.

    Other recent layoffs in Virginia: 442 workers at Northern Virginia’s Mitre, which manages federally funded defense research centers and faced $28 million in canceled federal contracts; and 554 workers at a shuttered plywood factory in Southern Virginia.

    “Housing affordability challenges and a 30-year low in existing home sales are impacting our plywood business, as many of our plywood products are used in repair and remodel projects, which often occur when homes change ownership,” Georgia-Pacific said in a May news release.

    Stateline looked at two state jobs surveys for the second quarter that sometimes have quite different results: the so-called payroll survey of businesses that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses for its monthly report, which has yet to be revised at the state level, and the BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics program, which estimates job changes based on monthly household surveys.

    The LAUS estimates are often called the “household” survey because they rely mostly on surveys of households, asking how many people are employed. They include jobs the payroll survey can’t get, such as contract and agricultural jobs, and capture jobs where people live rather than states where employers are located.

    In a state like Virginia with a high number of federal employees and contract workers, lost jobs may show up sooner in the household survey since many federal jobs are not reflected on state-level payrolls if they are done by subcontractors, if the agency or contractor is based in another state, or if DOGE cuts allowed people to stop work but stay on the payroll until September. Those people might report being unemployed in the household survey but wouldn’t show up in other surveys until October.

    The household survey shows about the same number of slowing job gains as the revised national payroll report, so it may be a window into the trends, many caused by Trump administration cuts in government, health care and foreign aid, and also by slowing sales in stores and housing markets.

    Both surveys rely on small samples and are often revised later, said Charles Gascon, an economist and research officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The more definitive Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, set for release Dec. 3 for the second quarter, will show state patterns more conclusively, he said.

    The household surveys show Virginia with the largest job losses in the country for the second quarter, down about 43,000, and job losses every month since February. Before that, the state gained jobs every month since the height of pandemic job losses in April 2020.

    New Jersey, which had the most job losses — 15,400 — in the separate second-quarter payroll survey, has suffered layoffs in retail stores hit by a slowdown in consumer spending, increased shoplifting and, among drugstores, lawsuits for their role in the opioid epidemic.

    Walmart announced 481 layoffs at its Hoboken, New Jersey, corporate office, and Rite Aid drugstores laid off 1,122 amid Chapter 11 bankruptcy affected by opioid crisis lawsuits that also hit Walmart and other pharmacy chains. Pharma firms Bristol Myers Squibb and Novartis also have announced hundreds of layoffs in New Jersey, citing patent expirations on popular drugs.

    Wobbly state finances

    Rising unemployment combined with weak revenue growth suggests “economic fragility” for state finances, said Lucy Dadayan, a principal research associate for the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center who tracks state tax revenue.

    Nationally, unemployment was at 4.2% in July, the same as July 2024 but up from recent lows of 3.4% in April 2023, with the largest increases in Mississippi, Virginia and Oregon.

    Unemployment has dropped the most compared with July 2024 in Indiana, Illinois, New York and West Virginia.

    The states with the highest unemployment rates in July were California (5.5%), Nevada (5.4%) and Michigan (5.3%), while the lowest were in South Dakota (1.9%), North Dakota (2.5%) and Vermont (2.6%).

    “I think the dramatic May and June jobs revision signals economic fragility. State-level warning signs suggest the impacts will show gradually,” Dadayan said. “And of course states are facing fiscal challenges caused by One Big Beautiful Bill Act tax and spending decisions.”

    State finances are a mixed picture, with income tax collections rising because of a strong stock market and sales tax growth weak as consumers retreat on spending, Dadayan said.

    State layoff figures are giving us an early read.

    – Amanda Goodall, a workforce analyst known as ‘The Job Chick’ on social media

    In Virginia, the economically distressed area around Emporia will suffer aftershocks from the plywood plant closing, said Del. Otto Wachsmann, a Republican who represents the area in the state House of Delegates. The area is already reeling from the indefinite closure of a nearby Boar’s Head lunch meat plant that employed 600 people after a listeria outbreak there last year.

    The community, part of the southern “Wood Basket” region, has a large logging industry that will now struggle to find new markets farther away with higher costs for trucking, Wachsmann said. “We’re working hard to find new industries to come here.”

    Layoff rates in April, as calculated by the online human resources platform Techr, showed New Jersey, Vermont and Virginia with the highest rates.

    Amanda Goodall, a workforce analyst who calls herself “The Job Chick” on social media, said the layoffs reflect restructuring in major corporations as well as federal cutbacks. She wrote about the layoff rates in a recent post.

    “These are not statistical flukes. They reflect real corporate moves, in New Jersey and Virginia especially,” Goodall wrote in an emailed statement to Stateline. “The bigger issue is that nobody on the ground cares what the unemployment rate says if they can’t find an interview for a job they’re qualified for. State layoff figures are giving us an early read.”

    California and Texas

    California and Texas saw the biggest jobs gains in both surveys in the second quarter.

    Texas added 42,700 jobs in the payroll survey, with the largest increase coming in the category of private educational services, 14,400 jobs, as the state approved a plan for school vouchers to start next year, according to a statement to Stateline from the Texas Workforce Commission.

    California added 25,300 jobs. But the household survey showed an increase of almost 111,000 jobs, the highest in the country.

    A Public Policy Institute of California blog post in July called the state’s labor market “at best, in a hold-steady pattern this year,” citing the state’s stubbornly elevated unemployment rate of 5.4% but also its jobs improvement over last year.

    “A hold-steady pattern is a welcome change from a year ago,” said the post, written by Sarah Bohn, a senior fellow at the institute.

    Stateline reporter Tim Henderson can be reached at thenderson@stateline.org.

    Stateline is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Stateline maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Scott S. Greenberger for questions: info@stateline.org.

    SUBSCRIBE: GET THE MORNING HEADLINES DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Job hoppers are pumping the brakes as the U.S. labor market downshifts

    [ad_1]

    More Americans are staying put in their jobs rather than jumping ship as the labor market cools. 

    So concludes a new analysis from the Bank of America Institute, which drew on the deposit data from millions of its customers to track job changes and the median pay bump people get when they switch employers.

    The analysis shows that while the job change rate — defined in this case as the total percentage of Bank of America customers who have changed employers — has edged up this year, Americans are much less to likely switch jobs than during the “Great Resignation.” That was the period during the pandemic when a massive wave of workers quit their jobs, motivated by better work opportunities and work-life balance. Over 20 million people quit their jobs in the second half of 2021, according to Labor Department data.

    The bank’s data shows that the percentage of its customers leaving their jobs has largely trended downwards, from 26% since the 2022 peak, and is now just slightly above the the job change rate in 2019. The upshot: As employers have pulled back in hiring, workers are hunkering down in their current jobs.

    “It’s possible that, again, tariffs and just general business uncertainty is playing a role in squeezing out some of the availability for people to switch jobs, which is why that rate is declining,” said Taylor Bowley, an economist at Bank of America Institute and lead author of the report.

    The labor market slowed sharply in recent months. Accounting for government data revisions, the average monthly payroll gain from May to July was only 35,000, down from average of 123,000 from January to April. The Labor Department will release the next jobs report on September 5.

    “People are not leaving their jobs right now because they’re nervous about the future of the labor market,” said Allison Shrivastava, an economist at Indeed “It’s a pretty stagnant labor market,” she added.

    Lower pay hikes from switching

    As job hopping has waned, so too have the pay hike workers tend to get when changing jobs. The median raise for workers who switched employers was 7% in July, down from 10% in 2019 and 20% in 2022, according to the Bank of America Institute.

    ZipRecruiter labor economist Nicole Bachaud, citing data from the company’s New Hires Survey, told CBS MoneyWatch in an email that less than half of new hires (42%) in the second quarter negotiated their starting salary. Among those who did seek to negotiate, only 48% received higher pay.

    Federal Reserve data shows that for the first time since 2010, wage growth for job hoppers equaled that of job stayers in May and into July, another indication that the labor marketing is cooling.

    The Bank of America analysis notes the diminishing payoff from switching jobs stems in part from the shifting power dynamic between employees and employers. Workers wielded more leverage during the pandemic, when labor supply disruptions created heightened demand for workers. However, that power is slowly shifting back toward employers as job opportunities dry up.

    “This trend confirms that the labor market is no longer as tight,” Bowley writes in the report.

    Uncertainty surrounding tariffs has also led employers to hold off on making major businesses investments, leading some to pause hiring altogether. 

    “This deceleration for both people changing jobs and then the pay rises they get when they do, could have dampening effects on consumer spending growth going forward,” said Bowley.

    Mary Cunningham

    Mary Cunningham is a reporter for CBS MoneyWatch. Before joining the business and finance vertical, she worked at “60 Minutes,” CBSNews.com and CBS News 24/7 as part of the CBS News Associate Program.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Big Business and Wall Street Need to Stand Up for Honest Data

    [ad_1]

    To some people, the Bureau of Labor Statistics may not sound like the most thrilling place to work. But many of its two thousand-plus employees, who produce the monthly jobs report, the Consumer Price Index, and other official economic releases, are proud data nerds. In a recent podcast, Erica Groshen, a Harvard-trained economist who served as the commissioner of the bureau from 2013 to 2017, relayed an inside joke at the agency. Question: How do you spot the extrovert at the B.L.S.? Answer: The extrovert is the one who looks at your shoes in the elevator.

    Introverts or not, B.L.S. employees play a vital role in the U.S. economy, putting together statistics that policymakers, businesses, and households use to make decisions. To draw up its employment figures, the B.L.S. conducts monthly surveys of sixty thousand households and a hundred and twenty-one thousand employers. Some of the respondents take a while to reply. As more data come in, the agency updates its previous figures.

    On August 1st, the bureau released its latest jobs report, which indicated that employment growth was considerably weaker in May and June compared with the agency’s initial estimates. But then Donald Trump claimed the numbers had been “rigged,” and abruptly fired the agency’s commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, a veteran labor economist who previously worked at the Census Bureau, the Department of the Treasury, and, under the Biden Administration, the White House Council of Economic Advisers. Last week, Trump nominated a replacement for McEntarfer: E. J. Antoni, an economist at the Heritage Foundation who regularly appears on conservative media, and whose credentials have been questioned by economists across the political spectrum. On X, Dave Hebert, of the free-market American Institute for Economic Research, wrote that he had been on programs with Antoni and had been impressed by two things: “His inability to understand basic economics and the speed with which he’s gone MAGA.”

    None of this should come as a total shock. In countries run by populists, there often comes a moment when empirical reality, as reflected in official economic statistics, clashes with the regime’s rhetoric, and something gives. Argentina provides a famous example. In 2007, as the inflation rate was rising sharply, the government of Néstor Kirchner—whose wife, Cristina, was running to succeed him in an upcoming election—fired a top official at the national statistics agency and appointed a loyalist, under whom the agency reported inflation figures that were widely discredited.

    It’s perhaps surprising that something like this didn’t happen during Trump’s first term. In his view, data is only as credible as it is convenient; he has long challenged statistics that aren’t supportive of his interests. During Trump’s 2016 campaign, when Barack Obama was still in the White House, Trump claimed that the real unemployment rate was considerably higher than the official one from the B.L.S. In March, 2017, when the bureau said that the economy had added a robust two hundred and thirty-five thousand jobs in the month prior, Trump’s press secretary quoted him as saying that the numbers were “phony in the past” but “very real now.”

    The fact that job growth remained pretty strong until the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, in early 2020, meant that Trump didn’t have much to complain about. In October, 2017, he nominated William Beach, an economist of well-established conservative credentials, to become the commissioner of the B.L.S. Beach has served as a fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a vice-president of research at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, which was founded with funding from Charles Koch, and a staff economist for Republicans on the Senate Budget Committee. Given this background, some Democratic senators expressed fears he would be a partisan commissioner, but his four-year tenure at the B.L.S., which ended in 2023, passed without any major controversies, and he has now emerged as a critic of Trump’s decision to fire McEntarfer.

    On the day of McEntarfer’s dismissal, Beach described the move as “totally groundless” and said it “sets a dangerous precedent.” In a subsequent interview with CNN, he pointed out that there was no practical way for the commissioner to rig the jobs figures, which are produced by the B.L.S.’s career staff. He explained that the commissioner doesn’t see the numbers until a couple of days before they are released; by then, the data are already locked into the bureau’s computer system. When I spoke with Beach last week, he reiterated this fact and said that, in the short term, “the ability of the commissioner to influence the monthly figures, and their trend lines, is very near to zero.” The B.L.S. staffers who prepare them are so keen to guard against the possibility of interference by a political appointee, or even the perception that such a thing could be possible, that they once locked Beach out of a room where they were working, he recalled. The professionalism and dedication to producing the most accurate figures possible displayed by B.L.S. employees impressed him throughout his time at the agency, he added.

    This is reassuring. If a new commissioner were to try to massage the monthly figures, or to change how they are calculated to make them look more favorable to Trump, they would need the concerted coöperation of B.L.S. employees. A mass walkout seems more likely. “Theoretically, you could fire all the people who work there and change the culture,” Beach said. “But then you wouldn’t be able to produce the reports without their expertise.”

    If an Argentina-style outcome seems unlikely in the short term, there is still reason to be alarmed at Trump’s latest effort to bully government agencies that have long operated without political meddling. In the vast U.S. economy, where annual G.D.P. totals about thirty trillion dollars, nobody can keep tabs on everything—so people have to rely heavily on the official statistics. Economists refer to things that everybody can use, and which serve the public interest, as public goods: think clean air, national defense, lighthouses, and so on. “Federal statistics are a very classic case of a public good,” Groshen explained on the podcast Moody’s Talks. “It’s easy to take them for granted, but when they disappear you are in trouble.”

    Although the jobs report and the Consumer Price Index are unlikely to vanish, the danger is that they could be degraded over time, with public trust in the B.L.S. and its products eroding in tandem. Beach said these concerns also extend to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which produces the G.D.P. figures, and to the Census Bureau. He noted that, before the firing of McEntarfer, the three statistical agencies had functioned independently of the White House, which inspired confidence. “They operated in a bubble. Now that bubble has burst,” Beach told me. “That’s what happened on August 1st. We can no longer say the agencies operate with an arms-length relationship to the White House. That’s gone.”

    Another factor adding to the uncertainty surrounding the B.L.S. is that, even before Trump’s intervention, the bureau had been experiencing funding pressures, staff shortages, and declining response rates to the surveys that underpin its work. Since 2010, its budget has fallen by a fifth after adjusting for inflation, according to the Center for American Progress. Earlier this year, the Trump Administration called for a budget cut of eight per cent and imposed both a hiring freeze and an early-retirement program for personnel, which prompted the bureau to reduce its survey work in several U.S. cities. The issue of declining survey-response rate is one that other organizations, including opinion pollsters, have faced in recent years. The B.L.S. has moved to address it by, for instance, making it easier for the businesses and government agencies that it contacts each month to respond online rather than by phone or fax, and by incorporating some private sources of data into its statistics—but these efforts have been hampered by funding constraints.

    [ad_2]

    John Cassidy

    Source link

  • The Dow slips 100 points as inflation comes in hotter than expected

    The Dow slips 100 points as inflation comes in hotter than expected

    [ad_1]

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average and other major stock market indexes were in the red Thursday morning as a key inflation reading came in higher than expected in September.

    The Consumer Price Index increased by 2.4% in September on an annual basis, according to data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was slightly above the 2.3% forecast. Month-over-month, prices rose 0.2% from August, also surpassing the expected 0.1% increase. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.3% year-over-year, slightly higher than the expected 3.2%. On a monthly basis, core inflation climbed 0.3%, above projections of a 0.2% rise.

    The data point to ongoing inflationary pressures on the U.S. economy, with attention now shifting to Friday’s release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which will provide insight into wholesale inflation. Both data points will help inform the Federal Reserve’s next moves, including whether, how much and how fast to cut interest rates in the months ahead.

    The Dow dropped 100 points, or 0.24%, to 42,411 shortly after markets opened Thursday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq and S&P 500 dipped 0.39% and 0.31%, respectively. Oil prices rose on Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate trading at $74 per barrel and Brent crude at $77 per barrel, both up 1.4%.

    Elon Musk’s Tesla robotaxi reveal is finally here

    Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk will finally unveil the company’s highly anticipated robotaxi on Thursday at Warner Bros. Studios (WBD) in Los Angeles. Dubbed “We, Robot,” the event is expected to provide a first look at a “Cybercab” prototype, along with a booking platform for owners and riders. There will be also an update to the company’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, along with a production timeline.

    Delta and Dominos fall on earnings

    Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) posted its earnings report before the market opened, and its shares were down 2.9%. Delta Air Lines (DAL) stock was also down 2% after the release of its earnings report.

    For the latest news, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Mental health jobs will grow 3 times the rate of all US jobs over the next decade

    Mental health jobs will grow 3 times the rate of all US jobs over the next decade

    [ad_1]

    (CNN) — As the demand for mental health care grows across the United States, so will an expected demand for service providers.

    Employment growth in the mental health field — for psychiatrists, psychologists, therapists, counselors, psychiatric aides and social workers — is expected to be triple the projection for a typical US job, according to a CNN analysis of new data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    A subset of mental health practitioners — specifically mental health counselors, which include substance abuse and behavioral disorder counselors — is projected to grow even more rapidly. Growth for these roles is set to increase by 19%, going from about 450,000 workers in 2023 to 534,000 by 2033, making it among the top 20 fastest-growing US occupations. These counselors work with people seeking help for problems such as anxiety, addictions and stress.

    Marriage and family therapists are other jobs within the mental health field expected to show notable growth by 2033, with jobs there expected to rise by 16%. And the BLS group “counselors, all other,” a catch-all category that includes jobs such as sexual assault counselors and anger control or grief counselors, is similarly projected to grow 14% by 2033.

    Why and where growth is likely

    Two factors could be increasing demand for mental health services: Decreasing stigma around seeking treatment and increasing uncertainty in peoples’ lives, said Traci Cipriano, a clinical psychologist and assistant clinical professor in the Yale School of Medicine. She told CNN that political divisiveness, economic uncertainty, gun violence and the climate crisis are factors putting particular pressure on Americans.

    “All of these things feel threatening to a certain degree, but each one of us as an individual really has very little control over them,” Cipriano said. “Stress itself can be managed through mental health treatment but if you don’t manage it, it can lead to depression and anxiety.”

    Over the next decade, more Americans are also expected to manage stress outside of formal therapy. CNN’s analysis of BLS job projections also found that holistic workers — such as acupuncturists, fitness trainers and massage therapists — are also set to outpace typical job growth.

    Employment growth specifically for massage therapists is estimated to balloon by nearly 18% by 2033, adding almost 23,000 jobs annually on average. More than half of clients cited relaxation or stress relief as the primary reason for receiving a massage, according to a 2023 survey by the American Massage Therapy Association.

    Access among top barriers to seeking treatment

    The growing demand for mental health workers is one sign of shortages amid what many are calling a health emergency. Nine out of 10 adults said they believed that there’s a mental health crisis in the United States, and young people especially reported deteriorated well-being during and after the pandemic.

    While more adults are seeking treatment in recent years, most struggling with their mental health still do not receive support.

    One reason could be the approximately 122 million Americans who live in areas where there is a scarcity of mental health professionals, according to a 2021 analysis by USA Facts. Rural areas are particularly vulnerable, with Wyoming and Utah leading for the highest proportion of people without access to mental health providers.

    “We’re experiencing a shortage of mental health professionals,” said Cipriano. “People can’t get in and access the treatment they need, so it makes sense there would be a need for job growth.”

    Methodology

    The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) collects employment projection data for more than 1,100 detailed occupational groups. These group employment categories can represent multiple professions. For example, the occupational group “Therapists, all other” includes art and music therapists but also peripatologists – people who support those who are visually impaired to travel independently. As such, some of the group employment categories analyzed by CNN may include professions not directly connected to mental health services and similarly, some occupational groups omitted from our analysis may include mental health-related jobs.

    To identify mental health professionals as specifically as possible, CNN limited its analysis to occupations in the categories of psychiatrists, psychologists, therapists, counselors, psychiatric aides and social workers. We included the following employment categories (national employment code in parentheses): Substance abuse, behavioral disorder, and mental health counselors (21-1018); counselors, all other (21-1019); marriage and family therapists (21-1013); therapists, all other (29-1129); mental health and substance abuse social workers (21-1023); clinical and counseling psychologists (19-3033); school psychologists (19-3034); psychologists, all other (19-3039); psychiatrists (29-1223); and psychiatric aides (31-1133).

    For holistic workers, CNN included massage therapists (31-9011); exercise trainers and group fitness instructors (39-9031); dietitians and nutritionists (29-1031); acupuncturists (29-1291); and healthcare diagnosing or treating practitioners, all other (29-1299).

    While there are limitations to this analysis because of the broad nature of the BLS’s occupational groups, its purpose is to examine high-level employment trends.

    [ad_2]

    CNN

    Source link

  • Fact check: Trump falsely claims almost all new jobs under Biden have gone to ‘illegal aliens’

    Fact check: Trump falsely claims almost all new jobs under Biden have gone to ‘illegal aliens’

    [ad_1]

    (CNN) — Former President Donald Trump, who has promised to conduct mass deportations if he is elected to a second term in November, continued his angry rhetoric about illegal immigration at a campaign rally in Nevada in early June.

    “Virtually 100% of the new jobs under Biden have also gone to illegal aliens,” Trump said.

    Facts First: Trump’s claim that nearly all the new jobs under Biden have gone to immigrants, whether or not they are allowed to legally work in the US is false. The number of US-born workers increased about 3.5% between May 2021, just after Biden took office, and last month, though it did decline 0.2% over the past year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

    [ad_2]

    Tami Luhby and CNN

    Source link

  • Maryland unemployment, still among the nation’s lowest, ticks up for third straight month – WTOP News

    Maryland unemployment, still among the nation’s lowest, ticks up for third straight month – WTOP News

    [ad_1]

    After claiming the title of lowest state unemployment rate in the country last year, Maryland’s unemployment rate rose for the third consecutive month in February.

    After claiming the title of lowest state unemployment rate in the country last year, Maryland’s unemployment rate rose for the third consecutive month in February.

    Virginia’s unemployment rate held steady last month.

    The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reports Maryland’s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in February was 2.4%, up from 2.3% in January and 2.2% in December.

    Virginia’s unemployment rate was 3.0%, unchanged from December and January. It was about the same as a year earlier.

    North Dakota had the lowest state unemployment rate in February, at 2.0%, followed by South Dakota, at 2.1%. California now has the highest unemployment rate among states, at 5.3%, displacing Nevada, which now has the second-highest state unemployment rate, at 5.2% in February.

    Nationally, the unemployment rate in February rose 0.3% to 3.9%.

    Maryland had about 24,000 more jobs at the end of February. Virginia ended the month with a year-over-year payroll gain of 38,000 jobs.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics posts monthly unemployment and civilian payroll changes by state online.

    Get breaking news and daily headlines delivered to your email inbox by signing up here.

    © 2024 WTOP. All Rights Reserved. This website is not intended for users located within the European Economic Area.

    [ad_2]

    Jeff Clabaugh

    Source link

  • Why Fed rate hikes take so long to affect the economy, and why that effect may last a decade or more

    Why Fed rate hikes take so long to affect the economy, and why that effect may last a decade or more

    [ad_1]

    The U.S. economy continues to grow despite the 5.5% benchmark federal funds interest rate set by the Federal Reserve in 2023.

    The Fed’s leaders expect their interest rate decisions to eventually slow that growth.

    The increase in borrowing costs that stems from Fed decisions does not affect all consumers immediately. It typically affects people who need to take new loans — first-time homebuyers, for example. Other dynamics, such as the use of contracts in business, can slow the ripple of Fed decisions through an economy.

    “It might not all hit at once, but the longer rates stay elevated, the more you’re going to feel those effects,” said Sarah House, managing director and senior economist at Wells Fargo.

    “Consumers did have additional savings that we wouldn’t have expected if they had continued to save at the same pre-Covid rate. And so that’s giving some more insulation in terms of their need to borrow,” said House. “That’s an example of why this cycle might be different in terms of when those lags hit, versus compared to prior cycles.”

    A 1% interest rate increase can reduce gross domestic product by 5% for 12 years after an unexpected hike, according to a research paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    “It’s bad in the short term because we worry about unemployment, we worry about recessions,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum, referring to the paper’s implications for central bank policymakers. “It’s bad in the long term because that’s where increases in your wages come from; we want to be more productive.”

    Some economists say that financial markets may be responding to Federal Reserve policy more quickly, if not instantaneously. “Policy tightening occurs with the announcement of policy tightening, not when the rate change actually happens,” said Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller in remarks July 13 at an event in New York.

    “We’ve seen this cycle where the stock market moved more quickly in some cases, more slowly in other cases,” said Roger Ferguson, former vice chair of the Federal Reserve. “So, you know, this question of variability comes into play, as in how long it’s going to take. We think it’s a long time, but sometimes it can be faster.”

    Watch the video above to see why the Fed’s interest rate hikes take time to affect the economy.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Here’s why Americans can’t stop living paycheck to paycheck

    Here’s why Americans can’t stop living paycheck to paycheck

    [ad_1]

    For many Americans, payday can’t come soon enough. As of June, 61% of adults are living paycheck to paycheck, according to a LendingClub report. In other words, they rely on those regular paychecks to meet essential living expenses, with little to no money left over.

    Almost three-quarters, 72%, of Americans say they aren’t financially secure given their current financial standing, and more than a quarter said they will likely never be financially secure, according to a survey by Bankrate.

    “There are actually millions of people struggling,” said Ida Rademacher, vice president at the Aspen Institute. “It’s not something that people want to talk about, but if you were in a place where your financial security feels superprecarious, you’re not alone.”

    This struggle is nothing new. Principal Financial Group found in 2010 that 75% of workers were concerned about their financial futures. What’s more, since 1979, wages for the bottom 90% of earners had grown just 15%, compared with 138% for the top 1%, according to a 2015 Economic Policy Institute report. But there’s now a renewed focus on wage-earner anxiety amid higher inflation and rising interest rates.

    More from Personal Finance:
    Americans think they need a $233,000 salary, nearly $1.3 million for retirement
    Why Americans are struggling with car loans
    Majority of parents spend 20% or more of household income on child care

    The typical worker takes home $3,308 per month after taxes and benefits, based on the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. But when you take a look at the cost of some of the most essential expenses today, it’s easy to see why consumers feel strained.

    The median monthly rent in the U.S. was $2,029 as of June, according to Redfin. That amount already accounts for about 61% of the median take-home pay.

    Meanwhile, the Council for Community and Economic Research reported that the median mortgage payment for a 2,400–square-foot house was $1,957 per month during the first quarter of 2023, which accounts for about 59% of the median take-home pay.

    “Inflation is really hurting individuals having stability in their housing,” said certified financial planner Kamila Elliott, co-founder and CEO of Collective Wealth Partners in Atlanta. She is a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council. “If you have uncertainty in your housing, it causes uncertainty everywhere.”

    Combine that with the average $690.75 Americans spend each month on food and out-of-pocket health expenditures that cost the average American $96.42 monthly, and you get a total expense of $2,816.17 for renters and $2,744.17 for homeowners.

    That amount already accounts for just over 85% of the median take-home pay for average American renters and almost 83% for an average homeowner. This is excluding other essential expenses such as transportation, child care and debt payments.

    “So much of managing your financial life in America today is like drinking from a firehose that many households are not able to show up and impose a framework of their own design onto their finances,” said Rademacher. “Many are still in this reactionary space where they’re just trying to figure out how to make ends meet.”

    Watch the video to learn more about why financial security feels so impossible in the U.S. today.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Here’s the inflation breakdown for April 2023, in one chart

    Here’s the inflation breakdown for April 2023, in one chart

    [ad_1]

    A shopper in Greenville, New York, April 30, 2023.

    Robert Nickelsberg | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Inflation in April notched its lowest reading in two years, as price pressures for consumers continue to moderate from multidecade highs and costs for household staples appear to be in retreat.

    The consumer price index, a key barometer of inflation, increased 4.9% in April versus a year ago. That is the smallest annual reading since April 2021, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, said Wednesday.

    The index also fell from 5% in March, marking the 10th consecutive month of declines.

    More from Personal Finance:
    What debt ceiling standoff means for money market funds
    Why missing one $2 expense could derail a national park trip
    MIT economist helps decide when recessions begin and end

    “Increasingly, we can be confident that inflation is coming back in” to target, said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics.

    Inflation measures how quickly prices are changing across the U.S. economy. The CPI measures anything from fruit and vegetable prices to those for a haircut or concert ticket.

    Since the CPI reading was a positive number in April, it means consumers didn’t see prices falling, in a broad sense. But it shows the rate at which they’re rising has slowed significantly from the 9.1% peak in June 2022.

    Policymakers aim to keep inflation at about 2% a year. It may take another year or so to reach that target, but “we’re definitively headed in that direction,” Zandi said.

    Where consumers saw prices fall in April

    Consumers saw average prices decline outright in April in certain categories.

    Grocery prices, for example, retreated 0.2% during the month, following a 0.3% decrease in March. This trend should continue as supply chains continue to normalize, as do costs for labor and diesel, a key input for transportation from farm to shelf, economists said.

    Monthly prices also declined for airline fares, new cars, hotels and household energy (such as electricity, fuel oil and utility gas service), among others.

    Where consumers saw prices rise in April

    On the flip side, notable increases in monthly prices occurred in categories such as shelter, used cars and trucks, motor vehicle insurance, recreation and personal care, according to the BLS.

    Gasoline prices also jumped 3% in April relative to March, though are down 12% in the last 12 months.

    Housing, the largest component of the average household’s budget, was the largest contributor to inflation in April, the BLS said. Shelter costs rose 0.4% in April relative to the prior month, a decrease from 0.6% in March.

    However, average rents have moderated or even decreased over the past six months, a trend that will soon be reflected in lower inflation readings for shelter, since those price dynamics typically take several months to feed through into federal data, economists said.

    “It looks like inflation in the [shelter] category has peaked,” Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said.

    Overall, households are faring much better than they were months ago relative to inflation in staples such as food, energy and housing, according to Zandi.

    “Gas prices are way down from where they were a year ago,” he said. “Food prices are no longer rising quickly.”

    “And rents are now flat to down,” Zandi added. “Those are the key items in people’s budget and all of them feel pretty good at this point in time.”

    Why inflation surged to multidecade highs

    Consumer prices began rising rapidly in early 2021 as the U.S. economy started to reopen after the pandemic-related shutdown. Americans unleashed a flurry of pent-up demand for dining out, entertainment and vacations, aided by savings amassed from government relief.

    Meanwhile, the rapid economic restart snarled global supply chains, a dynamic exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In other words, supply couldn’t keep up with consumers’ willingness to spend.

    Inflation, which increased in economies around the world during the Covid-19 pandemic era, was initially siloed in categories of physical goods such as used cars and trucks. But the dynamic has morphed.

    Now, it’s largely being driven by the labor market, not a shortage of physical goods, economists said.

    Increasingly, we can be confident that inflation is coming back in.

    Mark Zandi

    chief economist of Moody’s Analytics

    As the economy reopened after the pandemic, businesses rushed to hire workers and job openings surged to record highs. That demand tilted the job market in favor of workers, who had ample opportunities. They saw wages grow at their fastest pace in decades as employers competed to hire them.

    That strong wage growth has nudged employers, especially labor-intensive service businesses, to raise their prices, economists said.

    But now, “the earlier extreme levels of excess demand for workers are easing,” Hunter said.

    Those labor-market dynamics should continue to put downward pressure on overall inflation.

    “The trend from here is definitely looking a lot better,” Hunter said. “I think we’re finally seeing clear signs of progress.”

    [ad_2]

    Source link