SOFIA, Jan 21 (Reuters) – Rumen Radev painted a bleak picture of Bulgarian politics when he resigned as president on Monday in an unprecedented move that capped four years of weak governments and snap elections. He also offered a solution: himself.
“Our democracy will not survive if we leave it to corrupt officials, conspirators and extremists,” he said in a televised speech. “Your trust obliges me to protect the state, the institutions and our future.”
Radev, a former air force commander, has waited years for this moment. Since a political crisis erupted in 2020, he has sat above the parliamentary mess, appointing caretaker governments when needed, and gradually amassing influence as the Balkan country’s ceremonial head of state.
Now, with polls showing him to be Bulgaria’s most popular politician, he is widely expected to form a new party and run in parliamentary elections this spring.
Radev has not announced his intention to run yet, but the timing appears to be in his favour.
Popular protests against corruption and a budget that proposed higher taxes ousted the last government in December, and voters are increasingly sick of a small elite of politicians who have dominated for years. These include former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, who runs the leading GERB party, and oligarch Delyan Peevski, who is under U.S. and UK sanctions for corruption.
Still, he faces a massive challenge to turn around the fortunes of one of the European Union’s poorest and most corrupt members, where prosecutors allege that hundreds of millions of euros in European funds have been diverted into the pockets of businessmen and officials, public tenders have been fixed, and people have become so disillusioned that most don’t bother to vote.
Turnout dropped from nearly 50% in April 2021 to below 35% in a snap election in June 2024.
The challenge extends to Radev’s own personal image. He will face questions about his pro-Kremlin stance on the war in Ukraine, his scepticism on the euro, and even an allegedly damaging energy deal signed by a government he appointed.
“Radev offers the possibility of change to Bulgarian society, but also predictability – this is a perfect recipe,” said Parvan Simeonov, the founder of Myara, a Bulgarian polling agency. “However, there are issues and questions that should be answered.”
QUESTIONS FOR RADEV TO ANSWER
Radev was voted in as president in 2016 after a military career and training in the United States. In his first term, he became a critic of then Prime Minister Borissov, who was under pressure from corruption allegations.
When police raided Radev’s offices in 2020, Bulgarians saw the move as a hit job and it triggered the largest demonstrations since Bulgaria joined the EU in 2007. Months-long protests called for an end to graft, more accountability, and for the government to step down. Radev, meanwhile, was reelected for a second term in 2021.
The protests saw an end to Borissov’s tenure, but what followed was a political crisis in which weak coalitions struggled to last just a few months. The elections this spring will be the eighth in four years.
Graft continues: last year alone, the European Public Prosecutor’s Office said it opened 97 investigations in Bulgaria with damages totalling nearly 500 million euros.
Critics say Radev is partly to blame for questionable dealings done by interim governments that he appointed. This includes a 2023 gas deal between Turkish state gas company Botas and Bulgaria’s Bulgargaz that led to losses and an investigation.
COALITION PARTNERS NEEDED
Radev is popular but not enough to win an outright majority, analysts said.
Many point to a possible marriage with the reformist PP-DB party which has also been outspoken against corruption. Still, the party does not agree with Radev’s soft stance towards Russia, or on his reluctance to join the eurozone, which Bulgaria did on January 1.
Radev will also have to clarify his stance on Ukraine after a series of Kremlin-friendly statements in recent years. He clashed with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy during a meeting in 2023 when he said that military aid to Kyiv would only prolong the conflict.
“God forbid such a tragedy happens (here) and you are in my place,” Zelenskiy said on live TV. “Are you going to say “Putin, take over Bulgarian territories?””
(Writing by Edward McAllisterEditing by Alexandra Hudson)
SOFIA, Dec 10 (Reuters) – Thousands of Bulgarians rallied on Wednesday evening against the country’s minority government and what they say is its failure to tackle endemic corruption in the European Union’s poorest member state.
The protests in the capital Sofia and dozens of other towns and cities across the Black Sea nation are the latest in a series of rolling demonstrations and come as Bulgaria prepares to adopt the euro on January 1.
Protesters used lasers to project the words “Resignation”, “Mafia Out”, and “For Fair Elections” on the parliament building in central Sofia.
“I think the energy of the people will gradually force them (the government) to step down because many reforms are needed,” said Dobri Lakov, 64, a Sofia resident.
“First and foremost, judicial reform. If the judicial system is fixed, everything else will fall into place, absolutely everything.”
Bulgaria’s parliament will hold a vote of no-confidence on Thursday in the government of Prime Minister Rosen Zheleznikov, the sixth such vote since it took power on January 15 this year.
Last week, the government withdrew its 2026 budget plan, the first drafted in euros, due to the mass protests. Opposition parties and other organisations said they were protesting against plans to hike social security contributions and taxes on dividends to finance higher state spending.
Despite the government’s retreat over the budget plan, the protests have continued unabated in a country which has held seven national elections in the past four years – most recently in October 2024 – amid deep political and social divisions.
“It is finally time for normality to come to Bulgaria and for us to free ourselves from the oligarchy, the mafia, and the forces that represent them,” said Angelin Bahchevanov, an IT specialist.
Bulgarian news agency BTA reported on Wednesday that Boyko Borissov, a former prime minister and leader of the ruling GERB party, said the ruling coalition partners had agreed not to resign before Bulgaria joins the euro zone on January 1.
However, Assen Vassilev of the reformist opposition party “We Continue the Change”, which was among the organisers of Wednesday’s protest, said: “We will enter the euro zone, even if the government has resigned.”
(Reporting by Fedja Grulovic; Writing by Ivana SekularacEditing by Gareth Jones)
The plane landed safely in Plovdiv airport and von der Leyen will continue her planned tour of the European Union’s nations bordering Russia and Belarus, said the commission’s spokesperson Arianna Podestà.
“We can indeed confirm that there was GPS jamming,” said Podestà. “We have received information from the Bulgarian authority that they suspect that this was due to blatant interference by Russia.”
Von der Leyen, a fierce critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Moscow’s war in Ukraine, is on a four-day tour of the EU nations bordering Russia and its ally Belarus.
“This incident actually underlines the urgency of the mission that the president is carrying out in the front-line member states,” Podestà said.
She said that von der Leyen has seen “firsthand the everyday challenges of threats coming from Russia and its proxies.”
“And, of course, the EU will continue to invest into defense spending and in Europe’s readiness even more after this incident,” she said.
Bulgaria issued a statement saying that “the satellite signal used for the aircraft’s GPS navigation was disrupted. As the aircraft approached Plovdiv Airport, the GPS signal was lost.”
Von der Leyen was scheduled to address a news conference at 1430 GMT in Romania.
Nilfar Nazarova used to work as an accountant in her native Uzbekistan but for the past four summers she has been cleaning hotel rooms in the Bulgarian Black Sea resort of Albena.
“The first year, there were very few Uzbeks. Today, around 100 of us come every season, attracted by the stable and regular salaries,” Nazarova, who is in her forties and from the city of Bukhara, told AFP.
“We feel welcomed like family.”
While workers from Central Asia and further afield have been arriving for years in Central and Eastern Europe, many locals of working age have been seeking their fortunes elsewhere since the fall of Communism.
Bulgaria’s population has shrunk by almost a third since 1990 and the country’s tourism sector — which accounts for almost seven percent of the economy — now relies on foreign workers.
Tens of thousands of positions in the sector remained unfilled at the start of the season, the hotel owners association said.
And a recent survey of companies found that eight out of 10 employers were facing labour shortages, most saying they were willing to hire workers from countries outside the European Union.
– Demographic impact –
About 20,000 Uzbeks, including seasonal workers, ply their trade in the Balkan nation, according to former government official Philip Gounev.
“At this rate, they could become a significant minority within five or six years,” said Gounev, a former deputy interior minister who now runs a migrant labour employment agency.
That would potentially change the demographic makeup of Bulgaria, the EU’s poorest country, he said.
Demand had surged in recent years, he added.
In Albena, popular with visitors from across the continent, workers from Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Indonesia and other countries have taken up jobs in hotels, kitchens and bars.
The resort, which was once the pride of the Communist regime and hosted Cuba’s Fidel Castro, has escaped the real estate frenzy that has transformed much of Bulgaria’s Black Sea coastline.
“The work is hard but the people are kind,” Uzbek student Gulraykhan Muxanbetovna said as she bustled around the crowded restaurant of a four-star hotel overlooking the Black Sea.
The 20-year-old’s Instagram posts about her life in Albena have garnered her a loyal following of thousands on the social media platform.
“It’s interesting for people in my country. They want to come too,” she said.
– ‘Matter of survival’ –
Resort manager Krasimira Stoyanova said workers from abroad received food, accommodation and “a salary several times higher than what they would earn in Uzbekistan”.
“That’s what motivates them… There, they earn $100 to $150 a month. Here, salaries start at $600 and can reach $800 or more,” she said.
Many Uzbeks also speak Russian, an advantage in Bulgaria, which has historically had close ties with Moscow.
The government recognises the importance of attracting migrant workers and has made it easier for them to get visas, Gounev said — even if bureaucracy can still be “cumbersome” and corruption can put off some people.
“It’s a matter of survival for Bulgarian businesses,” he said.
And not only for businesses.
Bulgaria has one of the world’s fastest shrinking populations.
Most Bulgarians who leave the country do not return and nearly a quarter of the population is now over 65 years old.
“I think in Game 1, we didn’t give him a lot of chances to make quality saves,” Avalanche defenseman Josh Manson told me before Colorado and Georgie wiped out the Whiteoot in Winnipeg with a 6-3 victory late Tuesday. “I felt like a lot of (shots) were going in from the backside or (to) his right, which is tough.
“And then that can rattle your confidence a little bit. But he’s stepped up and just playing like how he can.”
He grounded the Jets for four straight games. He won twice in Manitoba. He rose to the moment. He blocked out the jeers. He stiffed the haters.
Forgive me, Georgie.
This is how Lord Stanley comes home.
Down 3-1 in a best-of-seven series Tuesday, Winnipeg threw everything at the crease that wasn’t nailed down. The Jets blistered Georgiev with 19 shots in the second period alone. They came away with one goal to show for it.
Game 1: Seven goals against. Games 2-5: Eight goals. Combined.
Forgive me, Georgie.
This is starting to look familiar.
Remember that opening-round whupping of Nashville two years ago? The one where the Avs outscored the Predators 21-9 in four games? The one that got Colorado’s Stanley Cup party train off the platform and rolling toward Union Station?
As first impressions go, this series victory was the more impressive of the two.
Winnipeg had home ice. Winnipeg had momentum. Winnipeg had mojo. Winnipeg had arguably the top team defense in the NHL. Winnipeg had the best goaltender in the Western Conference. The ’22 Preds were forced to roll out rookie backup Connor Ingram to defend the net, effectively ending that fight before it ever really got started.
The Stanley Cup champs two years ago averaged 5.25 goals in smashing Smashville. Against Connor Hellebuyck, the Vezina Trophy finalist who’d shut them out on April 13 at Ball Arena, they averaged 5.6 goals per game.
Forgive me, Georgie.
This stuff is historic.
The Avs became just the fourth team in NHL history to notch at least five goals in the first five games of a series. The Jets became the first club to ever allow five or more games in each of their opening five playoff tilts.
Cynics will cite the bloody cut last week that knocked Jets defenseman Brenden Dillon out of the series. They’ll point to the nasty shot that Winnipeg center Vladislav Namestnikov took to the head, shelving him for Game 5.
Yet they were both good to go in Game 1. The Avs scored six.
They looked fine in Game 2 and Game 3. The Avs scored five. Then six again.
Forgive me, Georgie.
This is deep.
Every line brought the heat. And a mean streak. Precedent says Colorado’s Stanley Cup run will probably go as far as the bottom-six forwards can carry it. If Tuesday was any harbinger of what’s to come, best find a comfy chair.
About five-and-a-half minutes into the second period, the score tied at 1-all, fourth-line center Yakov Trenin put down a marker and laid down the law. Trenin was one of GM Chris MacFarland’s under-the-radar deadline pickups, a banger from Nashville, a 6-foot-2 grinder who got swept away by the Avs two years ago.
The Russian pretty much single-handedly badgered his way from behind the net to the corner of Hellebuyck’s left eye, out-hustling at least two Jets defenders to a loose puck, staying with the play through contact, and whipping the biscuit past Bucky for a 2-1 Colorado lead.
Forgive me, Georgie.
This is how you flip the script.
Steel between the ears.
Stone between the pipes.
“Have you ever seen a guy flip a switch in just a few days the way Georgiev has?” a reporter asked Manson after Game 4.
He pondered for a second.
“I don’t think so.” Manson replied. “I think that’s a really tough job for goalies to have to do that. And kudos to him.”
THE world’s oldest shipwreck has been perfectly preserved more than a mile deep beneath the sea for 2,400 years.
The Greek trading vessel was discovered in an astonishing state of preservation in the Black Sea off the Bulgarian coast and has been dated back to 400BC.
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The 2,400-year-old vessel at the bottom of the Black SeaCredit: BLACK SEA MAP/EEF EXPEDITIONS
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Divers at the site of the wreckageCredit: YouTube
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They managed to take a small piece of the vessel for researchers to carbon dateCredit: YouTube
Found lying on its side by an Anglo-Bulgarian team in late 2017, the 75ft structure is officially the world’s oldest known intact shipwreck.
Despite thousands of years isolated almost 1.25 miles beneath the surface, the rudder, rowing benches and even the contents of its hold are as they were.
That’s thanks to the lack of oxygen at those depths, meaning organic material can be preserved for thousands of years.
It was discovered as one of 65 ship wrecks by the Black Sea Maritime Archaeology Project (Black Sea MAP), who used advanced mapping technology to survey more than 2,000 sq km of seabed.
Also found was a 17th century Cossack raiding fleet and Roman trading vessels complete with amphorae.
But the Greek merchant ship is of a kind only previously seen on the side of ancient Greek pottery, such as the ‘Siren Vase’ in the British Museum.
Dating back to around 480 BC, the vase shows Odysseus strapped to the mast as his ship sails past three mythical sea nymphs whose tune was thought to drive sailors to their deaths.
A small piece of the vessel was taken following its discovery to be carbon dated by the research team, which confirmed the ship to be at least 2,400 years old.
A member of the expedition, Helen Farr, described the wreckage as something from “another world”.
She told the BBC: “It’s when the ROV [remote operated vehicle] drops down through the water column and you see this ship appear in the light at the bottom so perfectly preserved it feels like you step back in time.”
Lying more than 2,000m below the surface, the wreckage is also beyond the reach of modern divers.
“It’s preserved, it’s safe,” Farr added. “It’s not deteriorating and it’s unlikely to attract hunters.”
Also involved in the expedition was an international team of scientists led by University of Southampton experts.
Jon Adams, Professor of Archaeology at the institution, is Black Sea MAP’s principal investigator.
He said the discovery of an intact ship from the Classical world is something he never believed was possible.
“This will change our understanding of shipbuilding and seafaring in the ancient world,” he told the university’s website.
The University worked with the National Institute and Museum of Archaeology, and the Centre of Underwater Archaeology, both in Bulgaria, on the project.
The ships cargo remains unknown, however,
The research team said more funding would be needed if they are to return to the site.
“Normally we find amphorae (wine vases) and can guess where it’s come from, but with this it’s still in the hold,” said Dr Farr.
“As archaeologists we’re interested in what it can tell us about technology, trade and movements in the area.”
Dubbed the “El Dorado of the Sea” an English ship named the Merchant Royal sank off the coast of Cornwall leaving behind an incredible amount of riches.
The ship carried future Kings of England and was found buried in the sand, untouched for 350 years.
The oldest known wreck
THE recently discovered Greek merchant ship might be more than 2,400 years old but it isn’t the oldest known wreck to ever be found.
That title belongs to the the Dokos shipwreck, which dates back to the second Proto-Helladic period, 2700–2200 BC.
That puts it at around 4,224 years old, making it the oldest underwater shipwreck discovery known to archaeologists.
Located off the coast of southern Greece near the island of Dokos in the Aegean Sea, the wreck sits about 50-100ft beneath the surface.
The discovery was made by American archeologist Peter Throckmorton on August 23, 1975.
However, with everything on board that was biodegradable being dissolved by the sea, the ship itself is long gone.
The only surviving evidence of the shipwreck is a cargo site of hundreds of clay vases and other ceramic items that were carried aboard the ship.
According to the Hellenic Institute of Marine Archaeology (HIMA), the pottery consisted of hundreds of ceramic pieces including cups, kitchenware, and urns.
Over 500 clay vases were uncovered, dating to the Early Helladic period, and there were a variety of sauceboats in multiple shapes and sizes.
These artefacts and items were raised from the sea floor and transported to the Spetses Museum, where they have been placed into conservation.
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It’s believed the ship could hold up to 25 crew membersCredit: BLACK SEA MAP/EEF EXPEDITIONS
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The Greek merchant ship is of a kind only previously seen on the side of ancient Greek pottery, such as the ‘Siren Vase’ in the British MuseumCredit: Getty
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The boat almost perfectly resembled the one from the vaseCredit: YouTube
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An expert holding a plaque of the shipwreckCredit: YouTube
Greece has become the first majority-Orthodox Christian nation to legalize same-sex marriage under civil law. At least for the near future, it will almost certainly be the only one.Eastern Orthodox leadership, despite lacking a single doctrinal authority like a pope, has been united in opposing recognition of same-sex relationships both within its own rites and in the civil realm. Public opinion in majority Orthodox countries has mostly been opposed, too.But there are some signs of change. Two small majority-Orthodox countries, Montenegro and Cyprus, have authorized same-sex unions in recent years, as did Greece in 2015 before upgrading to this week’s approval of full marital status.Video above: The world’s most welcoming places for 2024Civil unions may become more common among Orthodox countries gravitating toward the European Union. They remain off the table in Russia, which has cracked down on LGBTQ+ expression, and countries in its orbit.Following is a summary of church positions and public opinion in the Orthodox world, followed by the situation in individual majority-Orthodox lands. Eastern Orthodoxy is a socially conservative, ancient church with elaborate rituals and a strict hierarchy. Churches are mostly organized along national lines, with multiple independent churches that share ancient doctrine and practices and that both cooperate and squabble.Roughly 200 million Eastern Orthodox live primarily in Eastern Europe and neighboring Asian lands, with about half that total in Russia, while smaller numbers live across the world. Like other international church bodies, Orthodoxy has confronted calls for LGBTQ+ inclusion. A 2016 statement by a council of most Orthodox churches called marriage between a man and a woman “the oldest institution of divine law” and said members were forbidden from entering same-sex unions.In countries where they are a majority, Orthodox believers overwhelmingly said society should not accept homosexuality or approve same-sex marriage, according to surveys conducted in 2015 and 2016 by the Pew Research Center, a Washington-based think tank.Greek Orthodox showed relative tolerance, with half of Orthodox saying homosexuality should be accepted and a quarter favoring same-sex marriage. In more recent polls, Greeks overall narrowly supported the marriage law.The Greek law validates marriage in the civil realm but doesn’t require any church to perform such rites.Nevertheless, Greece’s Orthodox leadership unanimously opposed the law in January, saying the “duality of genders and their complementarity are not social inventions but originate from God.”Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis acknowledged the church’s position but said, “We are discussing the decisions of the Greek state, unrelated to theological beliefs.”Civil unions may be in some Orthodox countries’ near future, said George Demacopoulos, director of the Orthodox Christian Studies Center at Fordham University in New York. “In terms of civil marriage, I think the countries that are in the European Union will eventually all do it,” Demacopoulos said. “My guess is the assemblies of bishops in those countries will offer some resistance to the measure, and depending on where you are, that may or may not delay it.” In Ukraine, same-sex couples cannot register their status legally.In 2023, the issue became acute as many LGBTQ+ people joined Ukraine’s armed forces. That year, a bill was introduced in Parliament to establish civil partnerships for same-sex couples, providing basic rights such as compensation if one of the partners is killed in action.The All-Ukrainian Council of Churches and Religious Organizations — which includes Ukraine’s two rival Orthodox churches — opposed the draft law, contending that some international entities are using the country’s current vulnerability to force unwanted changes.The legislation remains pending.The European Court of Human Rights ruled in 2023 that Ukraine violated the rights of a same-sex couple who sought legal protections provided to married heterosexual couples.Ukraine is majority Orthodox, with various religious minorities. In increasingly conservative Russia, President Vladimir Putin has forged a powerful alliance with the Russian Orthodox Church and has made “traditional family values” a cornerstone of his rule, juxtaposing them with “perversions” of the West.Putin effectively outlawed same-sex marriages in the 2020 constitutional revision that added a clause stipulating that marriage is a union of a man and a woman.In 2013, the Kremlin adopted what’s known as the “gay propaganda” law, banning any public endorsement of “nontraditional sexual relations” among minors.After sending troops into Ukraine in 2022, Russian authorities ramped up a campaign against what it called the West’s “degrading” moral influence, in what rights advocates saw as an attempt to legitimize the war.Patriarch Kirill of Moscow has assailed LGBTQ+ rights. As head of the Russian Orthodox Church, he oversees the world’s largest Orthodox flock. He depicted his country’s invasion of Ukraine as part of a metaphysical struggle against a liberal agenda that included “gay parades.”In November, Russia’s Supreme Court effectively outlawed LGBTQ+ activism, labeling what the government called the LGBTQ+ “international movement” as an extremist group and banning it in Russia. In 2021, a survey by Russia’s top independent pollster, the Levada Center, showed that only 33% of Russians completely or somewhat agree that gay men and women should enjoy the same rights as heterosexuals, a decrease from earlier years. Belarus’s Family Code defines marriage as a “union between a man and a woman.” There is also no legislation prohibiting discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity.Homosexuality was decriminalized in Belarus in 1994, but the LGBTQ+ community faces heavy stigma and high suicide rates, advocates say.Human rights groups report hundreds of cases of the KGB – the country’s main domestic security agency – trying to recruit gay people and threatening to out them. Serbia and Montenegro, two conservative Balkan nations where the Serbian Orthodox Church holds huge influence, have had mixed results addressing LGBTQ+ rights as part of efforts to join the European Union.Tiny Montenegro passed a bill in 2020 allowing same-sex partnerships — not marriage and with fewer rights. In Serbia, a similar draft law never made it to a parliamentary vote.The Serbian Orthodox Church, which maintains close relations with the Russian church, has opposed the idea of same-sex marriages.Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic has said he would not sign off a bill on same-sex marriages, although Serbia has had an openly lesbian prime minister for years. Activists have been campaigning for legal partnerships.Pride marches in Serbia are routinely banned or held under tight security. In Montenegro, though same-sex partnerships are allowed, the highly male-oriented society of 620,000 people remains divided over the issue. Romania is one of the few European Union members that allows neither same-sex marriage nor civil unions, despite a growing social acceptance of LGBTQ+ people.In 2023, the European Court of Human Rights ruled that Romania had failed to enforce same-sex couples’ rights by not legally recognizing their relationships. In early February in Romania, LGBTQ+ activists were allegedly assaulted while holding a peaceful protest outside the Bucharest headquarters of the country’s far-right AUR party.In 2018, Romania held a referendum — backed by the Orthodox Church — on whether to narrow the constitutional definition of marriage from a ″union of spouses″ to a ″union between one man and one woman.”Rights campaigners urged Romanians to boycott the vote, which failed due to low turnout.In neighboring Moldova, which isn’t an EU member but has official candidate status, neither same-sex marriages nor unions are allowed. Large majorities in both countries are Orthodox. Public opinion in Bulgaria is mostly hostile to gay people and more so to same-sex marriages. In the Balkan country, patriarchal family traditions still predominate.The European Court of Human Rights last year found that Bulgaria’s government was violating European human rights law in failing to legally recognize same-sex couples. The court also ruled that Bulgaria is obliged to adopt legal recognition for same-sex couples, but Bulgaria shows no signs of implementing the decision.Leaders of the Bulgarian Orthodox Church, which includes about 80% of Bulgarians, condemned the ECHR ruling and called on the government not to give in.Bulgaria’s constitution explicitly prohibits the recognition of same-sex marriage. Amending the constitution requires a two-thirds majority in parliament on three consecutive votes. Such a scenario seems remote. Smith reported from Pittsburgh and Litvinova from Tallin, Estonia. Associated Press writers Jovana Gec in Belgrade, Serbia; Yuras Karmanau in Tallin; Stephen McGrath in Bucharest, Romania; Illia Novikov in Kyiv, Ukraine; and Veselin Toshkov in Sofia, Bulgaria, contributed to this report.
Greece has become the first majority-Orthodox Christian nation to legalize same-sex marriage under civil law. At least for the near future, it will almost certainly be the only one.
Eastern Orthodox leadership, despite lacking a single doctrinal authority like a pope, has been united in opposing recognition of same-sex relationships both within its own rites and in the civil realm. Public opinion in majority Orthodox countries has mostly been opposed, too.
But there are some signs of change. Two small majority-Orthodox countries, Montenegro and Cyprus, have authorized same-sex unions in recent years, as did Greece in 2015 before upgrading to this week’s approval of full marital status.
Video above: The world’s most welcoming places for 2024
Civil unions may become more common among Orthodox countries gravitating toward the European Union. They remain off the table in Russia, which has cracked down on LGBTQ+ expression, and countries in its orbit.
Following is a summary of church positions and public opinion in the Orthodox world, followed by the situation in individual majority-Orthodox lands.
Eastern Orthodoxy is a socially conservative, ancient church with elaborate rituals and a strict hierarchy. Churches are mostly organized along national lines, with multiple independent churches that share ancient doctrine and practices and that both cooperate and squabble.
Roughly 200 million Eastern Orthodox live primarily in Eastern Europe and neighboring Asian lands, with about half that total in Russia, while smaller numbers live across the world. Like other international church bodies, Orthodoxy has confronted calls for LGBTQ+ inclusion.
A 2016 statement by a council of most Orthodox churches called marriage between a man and a woman “the oldest institution of divine law” and said members were forbidden from entering same-sex unions.
In countries where they are a majority, Orthodox believers overwhelmingly said society should not accept homosexuality or approve same-sex marriage, according to surveys conducted in 2015 and 2016 by the Pew Research Center, a Washington-based think tank.
Greek Orthodox showed relative tolerance, with half of Orthodox saying homosexuality should be accepted and a quarter favoring same-sex marriage. In more recent polls, Greeks overall narrowly supported the marriage law.
The Greek law validates marriage in the civil realm but doesn’t require any church to perform such rites.
Nevertheless, Greece’s Orthodox leadership unanimously opposed the law in January, saying the “duality of genders and their complementarity are not social inventions but originate from God.”
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis acknowledged the church’s position but said, “We are discussing the decisions of the Greek state, unrelated to theological beliefs.”
Civil unions may be in some Orthodox countries’ near future, said George Demacopoulos, director of the Orthodox Christian Studies Center at Fordham University in New York.
“In terms of civil marriage, I think the countries that are in the European Union will eventually all do it,” Demacopoulos said. “My guess is the assemblies of bishops in those countries will offer some resistance to the measure, and depending on where you are, that may or may not delay it.”
In Ukraine, same-sex couples cannot register their status legally.
In 2023, the issue became acute as many LGBTQ+ people joined Ukraine’s armed forces. That year, a bill was introduced in Parliament to establish civil partnerships for same-sex couples, providing basic rights such as compensation if one of the partners is killed in action.
The All-Ukrainian Council of Churches and Religious Organizations — which includes Ukraine’s two rival Orthodox churches — opposed the draft law, contending that some international entities are using the country’s current vulnerability to force unwanted changes.
The legislation remains pending.
The European Court of Human Rights ruled in 2023 that Ukraine violated the rights of a same-sex couple who sought legal protections provided to married heterosexual couples.
Ukraine is majority Orthodox, with various religious minorities.
In increasingly conservative Russia, President Vladimir Putin has forged a powerful alliance with the Russian Orthodox Church and has made “traditional family values” a cornerstone of his rule, juxtaposing them with “perversions” of the West.
Putin effectively outlawed same-sex marriages in the 2020 constitutional revision that added a clause stipulating that marriage is a union of a man and a woman.
In 2013, the Kremlin adopted what’s known as the “gay propaganda” law, banning any public endorsement of “nontraditional sexual relations” among minors.
After sending troops into Ukraine in 2022, Russian authorities ramped up a campaign against what it called the West’s “degrading” moral influence, in what rights advocates saw as an attempt to legitimize the war.
Patriarch Kirill of Moscow has assailed LGBTQ+ rights. As head of the Russian Orthodox Church, he oversees the world’s largest Orthodox flock. He depicted his country’s invasion of Ukraine as part of a metaphysical struggle against a liberal agenda that included “gay parades.”
In November, Russia’s Supreme Court effectively outlawed LGBTQ+ activism, labeling what the government called the LGBTQ+ “international movement” as an extremist group and banning it in Russia.
In 2021, a survey by Russia’s top independent pollster, the Levada Center, showed that only 33% of Russians completely or somewhat agree that gay men and women should enjoy the same rights as heterosexuals, a decrease from earlier years.
Belarus’s Family Code defines marriage as a “union between a man and a woman.” There is also no legislation prohibiting discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity.
Homosexuality was decriminalized in Belarus in 1994, but the LGBTQ+ community faces heavy stigma and high suicide rates, advocates say.
Human rights groups report hundreds of cases of the KGB – the country’s main domestic security agency – trying to recruit gay people and threatening to out them.
Serbia and Montenegro, two conservative Balkan nations where the Serbian Orthodox Church holds huge influence, have had mixed results addressing LGBTQ+ rights as part of efforts to join the European Union.
Tiny Montenegro passed a bill in 2020 allowing same-sex partnerships — not marriage and with fewer rights. In Serbia, a similar draft law never made it to a parliamentary vote.
The Serbian Orthodox Church, which maintains close relations with the Russian church, has opposed the idea of same-sex marriages.
Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic has said he would not sign off a bill on same-sex marriages, although Serbia has had an openly lesbian prime minister for years. Activists have been campaigning for legal partnerships.
Pride marches in Serbia are routinely banned or held under tight security. In Montenegro, though same-sex partnerships are allowed, the highly male-oriented society of 620,000 people remains divided over the issue.
Romania is one of the few European Union members that allows neither same-sex marriage nor civil unions, despite a growing social acceptance of LGBTQ+ people.
In 2023, the European Court of Human Rights ruled that Romania had failed to enforce same-sex couples’ rights by not legally recognizing their relationships.
In early February in Romania, LGBTQ+ activists were allegedly assaulted while holding a peaceful protest outside the Bucharest headquarters of the country’s far-right AUR party.
In 2018, Romania held a referendum — backed by the Orthodox Church — on whether to narrow the constitutional definition of marriage from a ″union of spouses″ to a ″union between one man and one woman.”
Rights campaigners urged Romanians to boycott the vote, which failed due to low turnout.
In neighboring Moldova, which isn’t an EU member but has official candidate status, neither same-sex marriages nor unions are allowed.
Large majorities in both countries are Orthodox.
Public opinion in Bulgaria is mostly hostile to gay people and more so to same-sex marriages. In the Balkan country, patriarchal family traditions still predominate.
The European Court of Human Rights last year found that Bulgaria’s government was violating European human rights law in failing to legally recognize same-sex couples. The court also ruled that Bulgaria is obliged to adopt legal recognition for same-sex couples, but Bulgaria shows no signs of implementing the decision.
Leaders of the Bulgarian Orthodox Church, which includes about 80% of Bulgarians, condemned the ECHR ruling and called on the government not to give in.
Bulgaria’s constitution explicitly prohibits the recognition of same-sex marriage. Amending the constitution requires a two-thirds majority in parliament on three consecutive votes. Such a scenario seems remote.
Smith reported from Pittsburgh and Litvinova from Tallin, Estonia. Associated Press writers Jovana Gec in Belgrade, Serbia; Yuras Karmanau in Tallin; Stephen McGrath in Bucharest, Romania; Illia Novikov in Kyiv, Ukraine; and Veselin Toshkov in Sofia, Bulgaria, contributed to this report.
Greece has become the first majority-Orthodox Christian nation to legalize same-sex marriage under civil law. At least for the near future, it will almost certainly be the only one.Eastern Orthodox leadership, despite lacking a single doctrinal authority like a pope, has been united in opposing recognition of same-sex relationships both within its own rites and in the civil realm. Public opinion in majority Orthodox countries has mostly been opposed, too.But there are some signs of change. Two small majority-Orthodox countries, Montenegro and Cyprus, have authorized same-sex unions in recent years, as did Greece in 2015 before upgrading to this week’s approval of full marital status.Video above: The world’s most welcoming places for 2024Civil unions may become more common among Orthodox countries gravitating toward the European Union. They remain off the table in Russia, which has cracked down on LGBTQ+ expression, and countries in its orbit.Following is a summary of church positions and public opinion in the Orthodox world, followed by the situation in individual majority-Orthodox lands. Eastern Orthodoxy is a socially conservative, ancient church with elaborate rituals and a strict hierarchy. Churches are mostly organized along national lines, with multiple independent churches that share ancient doctrine and practices and that both cooperate and squabble.Roughly 200 million Eastern Orthodox live primarily in Eastern Europe and neighboring Asian lands, with about half that total in Russia, while smaller numbers live across the world. Like other international church bodies, Orthodoxy has confronted calls for LGBTQ+ inclusion. A 2016 statement by a council of most Orthodox churches called marriage between a man and a woman “the oldest institution of divine law” and said members were forbidden from entering same-sex unions.In countries where they are a majority, Orthodox believers overwhelmingly said society should not accept homosexuality or approve same-sex marriage, according to surveys conducted in 2015 and 2016 by the Pew Research Center, a Washington-based think tank.Greek Orthodox showed relative tolerance, with half of Orthodox saying homosexuality should be accepted and a quarter favoring same-sex marriage. In more recent polls, Greeks overall narrowly supported the marriage law.The Greek law validates marriage in the civil realm but doesn’t require any church to perform such rites.Nevertheless, Greece’s Orthodox leadership unanimously opposed the law in January, saying the “duality of genders and their complementarity are not social inventions but originate from God.”Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis acknowledged the church’s position but said, “We are discussing the decisions of the Greek state, unrelated to theological beliefs.”Civil unions may be in some Orthodox countries’ near future, said George Demacopoulos, director of the Orthodox Christian Studies Center at Fordham University in New York. “In terms of civil marriage, I think the countries that are in the European Union will eventually all do it,” Demacopoulos said. “My guess is the assemblies of bishops in those countries will offer some resistance to the measure, and depending on where you are, that may or may not delay it.” In Ukraine, same-sex couples cannot register their status legally.In 2023, the issue became acute as many LGBTQ+ people joined Ukraine’s armed forces. That year, a bill was introduced in Parliament to establish civil partnerships for same-sex couples, providing basic rights such as compensation if one of the partners is killed in action.The All-Ukrainian Council of Churches and Religious Organizations — which includes Ukraine’s two rival Orthodox churches — opposed the draft law, contending that some international entities are using the country’s current vulnerability to force unwanted changes.The legislation remains pending.The European Court of Human Rights ruled in 2023 that Ukraine violated the rights of a same-sex couple who sought legal protections provided to married heterosexual couples.Ukraine is majority Orthodox, with various religious minorities. In increasingly conservative Russia, President Vladimir Putin has forged a powerful alliance with the Russian Orthodox Church and has made “traditional family values” a cornerstone of his rule, juxtaposing them with “perversions” of the West.Putin effectively outlawed same-sex marriages in the 2020 constitutional revision that added a clause stipulating that marriage is a union of a man and a woman.In 2013, the Kremlin adopted what’s known as the “gay propaganda” law, banning any public endorsement of “nontraditional sexual relations” among minors.After sending troops into Ukraine in 2022, Russian authorities ramped up a campaign against what it called the West’s “degrading” moral influence, in what rights advocates saw as an attempt to legitimize the war.Patriarch Kirill of Moscow has assailed LGBTQ+ rights. As head of the Russian Orthodox Church, he oversees the world’s largest Orthodox flock. He depicted his country’s invasion of Ukraine as part of a metaphysical struggle against a liberal agenda that included “gay parades.”In November, Russia’s Supreme Court effectively outlawed LGBTQ+ activism, labeling what the government called the LGBTQ+ “international movement” as an extremist group and banning it in Russia. In 2021, a survey by Russia’s top independent pollster, the Levada Center, showed that only 33% of Russians completely or somewhat agree that gay men and women should enjoy the same rights as heterosexuals, a decrease from earlier years. Belarus’s Family Code defines marriage as a “union between a man and a woman.” There is also no legislation prohibiting discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity.Homosexuality was decriminalized in Belarus in 1994, but the LGBTQ+ community faces heavy stigma and high suicide rates, advocates say.Human rights groups report hundreds of cases of the KGB – the country’s main domestic security agency – trying to recruit gay people and threatening to out them. Serbia and Montenegro, two conservative Balkan nations where the Serbian Orthodox Church holds huge influence, have had mixed results addressing LGBTQ+ rights as part of efforts to join the European Union.Tiny Montenegro passed a bill in 2020 allowing same-sex partnerships — not marriage and with fewer rights. In Serbia, a similar draft law never made it to a parliamentary vote.The Serbian Orthodox Church, which maintains close relations with the Russian church, has opposed the idea of same-sex marriages.Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic has said he would not sign off a bill on same-sex marriages, although Serbia has had an openly lesbian prime minister for years. Activists have been campaigning for legal partnerships.Pride marches in Serbia are routinely banned or held under tight security. In Montenegro, though same-sex partnerships are allowed, the highly male-oriented society of 620,000 people remains divided over the issue. Romania is one of the few European Union members that allows neither same-sex marriage nor civil unions, despite a growing social acceptance of LGBTQ+ people.In 2023, the European Court of Human Rights ruled that Romania had failed to enforce same-sex couples’ rights by not legally recognizing their relationships. In early February in Romania, LGBTQ+ activists were allegedly assaulted while holding a peaceful protest outside the Bucharest headquarters of the country’s far-right AUR party.In 2018, Romania held a referendum — backed by the Orthodox Church — on whether to narrow the constitutional definition of marriage from a ″union of spouses″ to a ″union between one man and one woman.”Rights campaigners urged Romanians to boycott the vote, which failed due to low turnout.In neighboring Moldova, which isn’t an EU member but has official candidate status, neither same-sex marriages nor unions are allowed. Large majorities in both countries are Orthodox. Public opinion in Bulgaria is mostly hostile to gay people and more so to same-sex marriages. In the Balkan country, patriarchal family traditions still predominate.The European Court of Human Rights last year found that Bulgaria’s government was violating European human rights law in failing to legally recognize same-sex couples. The court also ruled that Bulgaria is obliged to adopt legal recognition for same-sex couples, but Bulgaria shows no signs of implementing the decision.Leaders of the Bulgarian Orthodox Church, which includes about 80% of Bulgarians, condemned the ECHR ruling and called on the government not to give in.Bulgaria’s constitution explicitly prohibits the recognition of same-sex marriage. Amending the constitution requires a two-thirds majority in parliament on three consecutive votes. Such a scenario seems remote. Smith reported from Pittsburgh and Litvinova from Tallin, Estonia. Associated Press writers Jovana Gec in Belgrade, Serbia; Yuras Karmanau in Tallin; Stephen McGrath in Bucharest, Romania; Illia Novikov in Kyiv, Ukraine; and Veselin Toshkov in Sofia, Bulgaria, contributed to this report.
Greece has become the first majority-Orthodox Christian nation to legalize same-sex marriage under civil law. At least for the near future, it will almost certainly be the only one.
Eastern Orthodox leadership, despite lacking a single doctrinal authority like a pope, has been united in opposing recognition of same-sex relationships both within its own rites and in the civil realm. Public opinion in majority Orthodox countries has mostly been opposed, too.
But there are some signs of change. Two small majority-Orthodox countries, Montenegro and Cyprus, have authorized same-sex unions in recent years, as did Greece in 2015 before upgrading to this week’s approval of full marital status.
Video above: The world’s most welcoming places for 2024
Civil unions may become more common among Orthodox countries gravitating toward the European Union. They remain off the table in Russia, which has cracked down on LGBTQ+ expression, and countries in its orbit.
Following is a summary of church positions and public opinion in the Orthodox world, followed by the situation in individual majority-Orthodox lands.
Eastern Orthodoxy is a socially conservative, ancient church with elaborate rituals and a strict hierarchy. Churches are mostly organized along national lines, with multiple independent churches that share ancient doctrine and practices and that both cooperate and squabble.
Roughly 200 million Eastern Orthodox live primarily in Eastern Europe and neighboring Asian lands, with about half that total in Russia, while smaller numbers live across the world. Like other international church bodies, Orthodoxy has confronted calls for LGBTQ+ inclusion.
A 2016 statement by a council of most Orthodox churches called marriage between a man and a woman “the oldest institution of divine law” and said members were forbidden from entering same-sex unions.
In countries where they are a majority, Orthodox believers overwhelmingly said society should not accept homosexuality or approve same-sex marriage, according to surveys conducted in 2015 and 2016 by the Pew Research Center, a Washington-based think tank.
Greek Orthodox showed relative tolerance, with half of Orthodox saying homosexuality should be accepted and a quarter favoring same-sex marriage. In more recent polls, Greeks overall narrowly supported the marriage law.
The Greek law validates marriage in the civil realm but doesn’t require any church to perform such rites.
Nevertheless, Greece’s Orthodox leadership unanimously opposed the law in January, saying the “duality of genders and their complementarity are not social inventions but originate from God.”
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis acknowledged the church’s position but said, “We are discussing the decisions of the Greek state, unrelated to theological beliefs.”
Civil unions may be in some Orthodox countries’ near future, said George Demacopoulos, director of the Orthodox Christian Studies Center at Fordham University in New York.
“In terms of civil marriage, I think the countries that are in the European Union will eventually all do it,” Demacopoulos said. “My guess is the assemblies of bishops in those countries will offer some resistance to the measure, and depending on where you are, that may or may not delay it.”
In Ukraine, same-sex couples cannot register their status legally.
In 2023, the issue became acute as many LGBTQ+ people joined Ukraine’s armed forces. That year, a bill was introduced in Parliament to establish civil partnerships for same-sex couples, providing basic rights such as compensation if one of the partners is killed in action.
The All-Ukrainian Council of Churches and Religious Organizations — which includes Ukraine’s two rival Orthodox churches — opposed the draft law, contending that some international entities are using the country’s current vulnerability to force unwanted changes.
The legislation remains pending.
The European Court of Human Rights ruled in 2023 that Ukraine violated the rights of a same-sex couple who sought legal protections provided to married heterosexual couples.
Ukraine is majority Orthodox, with various religious minorities.
In increasingly conservative Russia, President Vladimir Putin has forged a powerful alliance with the Russian Orthodox Church and has made “traditional family values” a cornerstone of his rule, juxtaposing them with “perversions” of the West.
Putin effectively outlawed same-sex marriages in the 2020 constitutional revision that added a clause stipulating that marriage is a union of a man and a woman.
In 2013, the Kremlin adopted what’s known as the “gay propaganda” law, banning any public endorsement of “nontraditional sexual relations” among minors.
After sending troops into Ukraine in 2022, Russian authorities ramped up a campaign against what it called the West’s “degrading” moral influence, in what rights advocates saw as an attempt to legitimize the war.
Patriarch Kirill of Moscow has assailed LGBTQ+ rights. As head of the Russian Orthodox Church, he oversees the world’s largest Orthodox flock. He depicted his country’s invasion of Ukraine as part of a metaphysical struggle against a liberal agenda that included “gay parades.”
In November, Russia’s Supreme Court effectively outlawed LGBTQ+ activism, labeling what the government called the LGBTQ+ “international movement” as an extremist group and banning it in Russia.
In 2021, a survey by Russia’s top independent pollster, the Levada Center, showed that only 33% of Russians completely or somewhat agree that gay men and women should enjoy the same rights as heterosexuals, a decrease from earlier years.
Belarus’s Family Code defines marriage as a “union between a man and a woman.” There is also no legislation prohibiting discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity.
Homosexuality was decriminalized in Belarus in 1994, but the LGBTQ+ community faces heavy stigma and high suicide rates, advocates say.
Human rights groups report hundreds of cases of the KGB – the country’s main domestic security agency – trying to recruit gay people and threatening to out them.
Serbia and Montenegro, two conservative Balkan nations where the Serbian Orthodox Church holds huge influence, have had mixed results addressing LGBTQ+ rights as part of efforts to join the European Union.
Tiny Montenegro passed a bill in 2020 allowing same-sex partnerships — not marriage and with fewer rights. In Serbia, a similar draft law never made it to a parliamentary vote.
The Serbian Orthodox Church, which maintains close relations with the Russian church, has opposed the idea of same-sex marriages.
Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic has said he would not sign off a bill on same-sex marriages, although Serbia has had an openly lesbian prime minister for years. Activists have been campaigning for legal partnerships.
Pride marches in Serbia are routinely banned or held under tight security. In Montenegro, though same-sex partnerships are allowed, the highly male-oriented society of 620,000 people remains divided over the issue.
Romania is one of the few European Union members that allows neither same-sex marriage nor civil unions, despite a growing social acceptance of LGBTQ+ people.
In 2023, the European Court of Human Rights ruled that Romania had failed to enforce same-sex couples’ rights by not legally recognizing their relationships.
In early February in Romania, LGBTQ+ activists were allegedly assaulted while holding a peaceful protest outside the Bucharest headquarters of the country’s far-right AUR party.
In 2018, Romania held a referendum — backed by the Orthodox Church — on whether to narrow the constitutional definition of marriage from a ″union of spouses″ to a ″union between one man and one woman.”
Rights campaigners urged Romanians to boycott the vote, which failed due to low turnout.
In neighboring Moldova, which isn’t an EU member but has official candidate status, neither same-sex marriages nor unions are allowed.
Large majorities in both countries are Orthodox.
Public opinion in Bulgaria is mostly hostile to gay people and more so to same-sex marriages. In the Balkan country, patriarchal family traditions still predominate.
The European Court of Human Rights last year found that Bulgaria’s government was violating European human rights law in failing to legally recognize same-sex couples. The court also ruled that Bulgaria is obliged to adopt legal recognition for same-sex couples, but Bulgaria shows no signs of implementing the decision.
Leaders of the Bulgarian Orthodox Church, which includes about 80% of Bulgarians, condemned the ECHR ruling and called on the government not to give in.
Bulgaria’s constitution explicitly prohibits the recognition of same-sex marriage. Amending the constitution requires a two-thirds majority in parliament on three consecutive votes. Such a scenario seems remote.
Smith reported from Pittsburgh and Litvinova from Tallin, Estonia. Associated Press writers Jovana Gec in Belgrade, Serbia; Yuras Karmanau in Tallin; Stephen McGrath in Bucharest, Romania; Illia Novikov in Kyiv, Ukraine; and Veselin Toshkov in Sofia, Bulgaria, contributed to this report.
BRUSSELS — In early August, Bulgarian officials spotted something they weren’t sure was legal.
Barrels of Russian oil were arriving in the country priced above a $60 limit allies had adopted to sap Moscow of critical revenue for its war in Ukraine.
Bulgaria was in an unusual position among its partners. It had been given an exemption to European Union sanctions barring most imports of Russian oil, ostensibly to ensure the country wouldn’t face acute energy shortages even though the EU’s broader policy aimed to crush Russia’s main cash artery following its full-scale assault on Kyiv.
But could Bulgaria still import Russian oil if it was above the price cap? Customs officials in Sofia wanted to know for sure, so they reached out to EU officials asking for “clarification,” according to a private email exchange dated August 4 and seen by POLITICO.
The answer: Let it in.
“Crude oil imported based on these derogations does not need to be at or below $60 per barrel,” came the EU’s reply.
Green light in hand, Bulgaria proceeded to import Russian crude exclusively above the price cap from August until October, according to confidential customs data seen by POLITICO. The shipments were worth an estimated €640 million, according to calculations by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) think tank. The cash went to Russian energy firms, which pay the taxes helping fill the Kremlin’s war chest.
The sanctions gap is emblematic of the broader flaws that have corroded the EU’s attempt to stymie the billions Russia earns from energy exports. Roughly a year after adopting the initial penalties, legal loopholes have combined with poor enforcement and a mushrooming parallel trade to keep Moscow’s fossil fuel revenues flowing, and feeding almost half of Vladimir Putin’s war-hungry budget.
Russian oil is likely winding up as fuel in Europe via new routes. Enforcement across the Continent is scattered and reliant on inconsistent data. And a whole new black market has sprung up to insure, ship and hide Russia’s fuel as it travels the world.
The sanctions, in other words, have come up short. Russia’s oil export earnings have dropped just 14 percent since the restrictions were imposed. And in October, Russia’s fossil fuel revenues hit an 18-month high.
It also appears the EU has run out of steam to do much about it. The latest EU sanctions package, set to be finalized at a leaders’ summit this week, is mostly focused on administrative tweaks that experts say will do little to curb widespread evasion. Absent are any efforts to drop the level of the oil price cap further.
“The whole sanction mechanism works only if you keep adopting on a regular basis decisions that close loopholes and impose new sanctions,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told POLITICO. “Every actor in the world has the capacity to adapt.”
The Bulgarian oversight
The reason behind Bulgaria’s price cap loophole is arguably a clerical oversight.
When the EU wrote the G7 nations’ price cap into law, officials expressly forbade EU shipping firms and insurance companies from trafficking Russian oil above the $60 threshold to non-EU countries. The aim was to squeeze the Kremlin’s revenues while keeping global oil flows steady.
But officials never thought to impose similar rules on shipments to EU countries, partly because Brussels had banned Russian seaborne crude oil imports that same day.
Except for Bulgaria.
The backdoor has meant millions in extra revenue for Moscow. According to CREA, Russian oil export earnings from Bulgarian sales between August to October — a third of which came from sales above the price cap — raised around €430 million in direct taxes for the Kremlin. All Russian-origin shipments delivered during this time — priced between $69 and $89 per barrel — relied on Western help, including from Greek ship operators and British and Norwegian insurers.
And it was all technically legal.
The situation “reveals that Bulgaria has aided Russia to exploit this glaring loophole to maximize the Kremlin’s budget revenues from these oil sales without any apparent benefits for Bulgarian consumers,” said Martin Vladimirov, a senior analyst at the Sofia-based Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) think tank, which has studied the issue.
More broadly, Bulgaria’s exemption from the Russian oil ban has been lining the pockets of both Russia’s largest private oil firm, Lukoil, which dominates Bulgaria’s fuel production with its sprawling Black Sea refinery, and the Kremlin itself.
More broadly, Lukoil’s crude oil imports to Bulgaria raked in over €2 billion in export revenues for Russia since the sanctions went into effect in February, according to a new CREA and CSD analysis. And the Kremlin has made €1 billion in direct taxes from the sales, POLITICO revealed last month.
There is now mounting pressure to mend these money-making fissures.
Bulgaria has vowed to cut short its opt-out from the Russian oil ban by six months, provisionally moving the deadline up to March.
And Kiril Petkov, the former prime minister who leads one of two parties controlling Bulgaria’s current governing coalition, told POLITICO the price cap workaround should “absolutely” be closed too. He vowed to pressure the government and ask the European Commission, the EU’s executive in Brussels, to do so, while insisting that Bulgaria is accelerating its efforts to shake off its Russian energy ties, unlike nearby countries like Slovakia.
Bulgaria proceeded to import Russian crude exclusively above the price cap from August until October, according to confidential customs data seen by POLITICO | Robert Ghement/EPA-EFE
“We do not like the $60 loophole that was created by the EU Commission derogation,” Petkov said. “We don’t want Putin to receive any euro that he doesn’t have to.”
The Bulgarian case “highlights one of the many loopholes that make sanctions less effective at lowering Russian export earnings used to finance the Kremlin’s war chest,” according to Isaac Levi, who leads CREA’s Russia-Europe team.
Bulgaria’s finance ministry and Lukoil didn’t respond to requests for comment.
‘Not all rainbows and unicorns’
A major challenge is poor monitoring and enforcement.
In October, a report commissioned by the European Parliament found EU sanctions enforcement is “scattered” across over 160 local authorities, while capitals have “dissimilar implementation systems” that include “wide discrepancies” in penalties for violations.
That assumes you can find a breach to begin with. Even those involved in shipping oil get only limited access to information on trades, according to Viktor Katona, chief crude analyst at the Kpler market intelligence firm.
Insurers, for example, rely on a single document from firms buying and selling oil cargoes pledging the sale is not above $60 per barrel, which amounts to a “declaration of faith,” he said.
The EU’s upcoming 12th package of sanctions is trying to crack down on this problem with new rules forcing traders to actually itemize specific costs. The goal is to prevent buyers from purchasing Russian oil above the limit and then hiding the extra costs as insurance or transport fees. But few in the industry have high hopes the added paperwork will stop the workaround.
Several EU countries with large shipping industries are also reluctant to tighten the price cap, making things even trickier. During the latest round of sanctions, Cyprus, Malta and Greece once again raised concerns over calls to strengthen the restrictions, according to two EU diplomats, who like others in the story were granted anonymity to speak freely.
A diplomat from a major maritime EU nation said stricter sanctions would only push Russia to use more non-Western operators to ship oil. Instead, the diplomat argued, the focus should be on broadening the countries adhering to the price cap. Currently, the G7, the EU and Australia are on board.
“It would be stupid to push for price caps, and then other shipping registers do not abide by it because they are not EU members,” the diplomat said, adding that “all that will be achieved is the total destruction of the shipping industry.”
Meanwhile, EU countries are still allowing Russian oil cargoes to cross their waters on their way elsewhere.
CREA research on behalf of POLITICO found that 822 ships transporting Moscow’s crude transferred their cargo to another ship in EU territorial waters — the majority in Greek, but also Maltese, Spanish, Romanian and Italian waters — since the oil sanctions kicked off last December. The volumes were equivalent to 400,000 barrels per day.
A Commission spokesperson defended the EU sanctions, noting Russia has been forced to spend “billions of dollars” to adapt to the new reality, including on new tankers, and its oil extraction and export infrastructure as Western demand shriveled.
That has caused “serious and ongoing economic and policy consequences,” the Commission spokesperson said. And CREA did find that the oil price limit has stripped the Kremlin of €34 billion in export revenues, equivalent to roughly two months of earnings this year.
Others point out that teething issues are normal — it’s the first time the EU has deployed sanctions at such a scale.
“Let’s be fair … all of the sanctions measures are unprecedented, so there’s an element of learning by doing it, as well,” said one of the EU diplomats. “We don’t live in a perfect world: it’s not all rainbows and unicorns.”
Deep dark waters
Instead of accepting the tough rules designed to drain its finances, Moscow has sparked a sanctions circumvention arms race, looking for loopholes as part of what one senior Ukrainian official has described as a “cockroach strategy.”
To ensure it can sell its fossil fuels at whatever price it can get, in violation of the oil price cap and other restrictions, Russia has presided over the creation of a parallel shipping market that, through a mixture of law-breaking and law-bending, is lining the pockets of its state energy firms and oligarchs.
A “shadow fleet” of aging tankers has emerged, mysteriously managed through a network of companies that obscure their ownership, frequently trading their cargo of fuel with other ships at sea. To help them escape the jurisdiction of Western sanctions while meeting basic maritime requirements, a cottage industry of murky insurance firms has sprung up in countries like India.
“When they were introduced, the sanctions seemed to be having an effect for a very short time. But now the state of play is most of the sanctions that have beeninplace have not really worked — or they’ve been very limited in terms of what they’ve been able to do,” said Byron McKinney, a director at trade and commodity firm S&P.
As Russian trades move increasingly away from Western operators and traders, that makes tracking them even more difficult, said Katona, the Kpler oil analyst.
“Every single” Russian type of oil now trades above the price cap, he said, while CREA estimates only 48 percent of Russian oil cargoes were carried on tankers owned or insured in G7 and EU countries in October.
“It’s like coming to a party and telling everyone not to drink alcohol, but not coming to the party yourself,” Katona said. “How do you make sure that no one’s drinking?”
At the same time, countries like India have increased their imports of cheap Russian crude by 134 percent, CREA found, processing it and then selling it everywhere. That means European consumers could unknowingly be filling up their cars with fuel produced from Russian crude, bankrolling Moscow’s armed forces at the same time.
The waning West?
The EU is well aware of the problem.
“Unless you have big players like India and China as part of it, effectiveness sooner or later fades away,” conceded one senior Commission official.
“It shows us the limits of what the tools of Western players can achieve at a global level,” the official added, noting it’s “a lesson in how much the [global] power balance has changed compared to 10 or 20 years ago.”
Expectations are low, however, that India or China — or Turkey, another critical shipping country — will come around to the price cap any time soon.
And back in Brussels, political leaders seem to be throwing up their hands. When EU leaders gather for their summit on Thursday, the sanctions package they’re expected to endorse will do little to stanch the flow of Russia’s energy cash, omitting any measures targeting Russian oil or lowering the price cap.
Until such steps are taken, Russia’s finances won’t truly wither, said Alexandra Prokopenko, an economist and nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
“The oil price is now the only real channel of transmission for external risk,” she said. “Russia will feel extremely bad if the average price on its oil is $40 or $50 per barrel — that would be painful for its budget and for Putin’s ability to finance expenditures.”
Getting to that point, however, was never going to be easy.
“The Russian economy was quite a big animal,” Prokopenko said, “that makes it hard to shoot it with a single shot.”
Victor Jack and Giovanna Coi reported from Brussels. Gabriel Gavin reported from Yerevan.
Claudia Chiappa contributed reporting from Brussels.
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Next year’s COP29 climate summit is set to take place in oil-rich Azerbaijan after Eastern European countries resolved a political deadlock on Saturday.
Geopolitical tensions had left the 2024 conference in limbo for months, with Russia blocking EU countries from hosting and feuding neighbors Armenia and Azerbaijan vetoing each other.
But after Armenia and Bulgaria formally withdrew their bids earlier this week, the 23-country Eastern European group backed Azerbaijan during a meeting on Saturday, Bulgarian Environment Minister Julian Popov told POLITICO.
Earlier on Saturday, Mukhtar Babayev, Azerbaijan’s minister of ecology and natural resources, said in a speech that he was “delighted” to announce that there was overall consensus on Azerbaijan’s candidacy to host COP29.
“We are very grateful to all countries, in particular to the Eastern European group and the host United Arab Emirates for their support,” said Babayev. “We are committed to working inclusively and collaboratively with everyone to ensure the success of COP29. May COP28 lead us forward toward a more sustainable and secure future for all.”
Baku’s bid will still have to be voted on by the entire COP plenary, but that is usually a formality.
If confirmed, next year’s summit will once again take place in a major oil- and gas-producing country.
The UAE, host of this year’s COP28, is the world’s seventh-largest oil producer. Fossil fuels make up more than 90 percent of Azerbaijan’s exports. And the host of the COP30 climate talks in 2025, Brazil, has just announced it would join the OPEC+ oil cartel.
Think the location of this year’s global climate summit is contentious? Wait till you hear about the next one.
When COP28 kicks off next week in the United Arab Emirates, the oil kingdom presiding over the talks will face pressure to show its fossil fuel interests won’t capture negotiations.
But at least the conference has a host. Next year’s summit, COP29, is currently homeless.
That’s because regional tensions have created a deadlock. The conference is meant to take place in Eastern Europe, but Russia is preventing any European Union country from hosting, while warring neighbors Azerbaijan and Armenia are blocking each other, and no one has been able to agree on a way forward.
The result: COP29 is in limbo, and global efforts to secure a liveable future risk being left leaderless. If no one picks up the baton, the current host may remain in place until COP30 starts in 2025 — likely leaving the UAE in charge of talks on major decisions like a new finance goal and getting governments to commit to post-2030 climate targets.
Officially, Russia’s line of reasoning “is that they don’t believe that Bulgaria or any other EU country will be impartial in running COP29,” said Julian Popov, the environment minister for Bulgaria, which has offered to host next year’s climate summit.
But behind closed doors, “their argument is that they are being blocked by EU countries about various things in relation to the war against Ukraine,” he told POLITICO in an interview.
“They are,” he said, “basically retaliating.”
The dispute now risks disrupting both COP28 and COP29, as diplomats scramble to resolve the issue before departing Dubai in mid-December.
“Russia has chosen to hold these negotiations almost hostage,” said Tom Evans, policy advisor on climate diplomacy and geopolitics at think tank E3G.
Race against time
The hosting dispute is inflaming geopolitical tensions heading into COP28, which takes place amid growing global discord related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Israel-Hamas war, and an evolving debt crisis looming over developing nations.
The COP climate summits typically rotate among the United Nations’ five regional groups, and next year is Eastern Europe’s turn. The 23-country Eastern Europe group has to decide on the host country by consensus.
COP28 President-Designate Dr. Sultan Al Jaber | Bryan Bedder/Getty Images for Bloomberg Philanthropies
In the past, that wasn’t hard: The COP conference would just rubber-stamp the host chosen by the regional group. Now, however, the decision will have to be taken at the height of tricky talks on a host of issues ranging from the future of fossil fuels to financial help for poorer countries.
“It’s unfortunate,” said Popov, that the hosting dispute may “distract” from the actual negotiations in Dubai.
Then there’s the issue of preparation. COP locations are usually chosen well in advance — the UAE was announced as host in 2021, and COP30 will take place in Brazil — to allow host cities to ready themselves for the arrival of tens of thousands of delegates.
The host country usually, but not always, also takes on the COP presidency, which plays a crucial role in leading negotiations before, during and after the summit.
“We still don’t know who will run the process next year,” Popov said. “This is damaging the whole COP process and will inevitably have a negative impact on the quality of negotiations.”
Among the key issues to be settled at COP29 is a new financial target for funding climate action in developing countries from 2025 onward. Ahead of COP30, countries are meant to submit a new round of climate pledges, including targets to reduce emissions by 2035.
“You really need months of diplomacy in advance to set these COPs up for success,” Evans said.
Geopolitical stalemate
Besides Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Belarus and Armenia also said last year they would throw their hats in the ring for 2024.
Prague eventually withdrew, proposing instead to host the annual pre-COP summit ahead of the main event in Bulgaria. But this past spring, Russia sent an email to other Eastern European representatives saying it would prevent EU countries from hosting, accusing them of blocking Russia-backed countries.
The email, obtained by Reuters, read: “It is reasonable to believe that EU countries, driven by politics from Brussels, do not have the capacity to serve as honest and effective brokers of global climate negotiations under the UNFCCC,” the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change.
In the summer, Azerbaijan joined the race to host COP29 — a few months before launching a large-scale offensive to retake the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region, forcing tens of thousands to flee to Armenia.
Azerbaijan and Armenia are now opposing each other’s bids, said Gayane Gabrielyan, Armenia’s deputy environment minister.
“Russia is blocking any EU country, and Armenia and Azerbaijan can’t find a solution,” she told POLITICO. “We have more than 100,000 refugees … In this situation, we will not be able to discuss anything with them.”
The foreign and environment ministries of Russia and Azerbaijan did not respond to requests for comment.
The Eastern Europeans could also swap with another regional group or a specific country outside the region to host — like Spain stepped in for Chile in 2019 — but that would also require consensus, as well as the formal withdrawal of all host candidates.
“The only option now is going to Bonn,” Gabrielyan said. “The motherland of the UNFCCC.”
Bonn-bound?
Bonn is where the U.N. climate body is headquartered. The conference guidelines indicate that the summit would default to the former West German capital if no agreement is found among the Eastern European group.
But hosting a climate conference “isn’t trivial,” Evans said. “There’s a cost involved, and there’s a huge logistical headache.”
Several European diplomats, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, told POLITICO that Germany was less than keen, something German officials would neither confirm nor deny.
Asked if Germany was prepared to host, a foreign office spokesperson said that discussions within the Eastern European group were ongoing, “with the aim of COP28 taking a decision.”
While Bonn may end up serving as the venue, the presidency would likely remain in the hands of the UAE if the Eastern Europeans can’t find consensus, a spokesperson for the U.N. climate body said.
Yet the UAE, which has faced a barrage of criticism since naming national oil company CEO Sultan al-Jaber as conference president, appears reluctant to continue in its role.
COP28 Director-General Majid al-Suwaidi said last month that his country would not host again. Asked to clarify whether that also meant not extending the presidency, a COP28 spokesperson declined to comment.
The predicament has prompted Bulgaria to suggest a novel solution to, as Popov put it, “save COP29” — splitting the mega-event across several nations in Eastern Europe.
“Here’s what we suggested: A distributed COP — have the pre-COP, the presidency and the COP held by three different countries, and have some events organized in different Eastern European countries,” he said.
But that, too, would need the backing of all regional group members. Gabrielyan said Armenia was “ready to discuss” this option, but that Azerbaijan had signaled opposition.
The uncertainty over who will host COP29 may come with one positive side-effect, however: Diplomats might be wary of postponing difficult decisions to next year.
“It’s not uncommon for COPs, when they reach some of the trickiest issues, to kick the can down the road,” said Evans. “I don’t feel like this is an option this time.”
Poland’s prime minister has told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to never “insult” Poles again, returning to harsh rhetoric towards Kyiv after the Polish president had sought to defuse a simmering dispute between the two countries over the issue of Ukrainian grain imports.
Zelenskyy angered his neighbours in Warsaw – a key military ally against Russia – when he told the United Nations General Assembly in New York this week that Kyiv was working to preserve land routes for its grain exports amid a Russian blockade of the Black Sea, but that “political theatre” around grain imports was helping Moscow’s cause.
“I … want to tell President Zelenskyy never to insult Poles again, as he did recently during his speech at the UN,” Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told an election rally on Friday, according to the State-run news agency PAP.
Earlier on Friday, Poland’s President Andrzej Duda said the dispute between Poland and Ukraine over grain imports would not significantly affect good bilateral relations, in an apparent move to ease tensions.
“I have no doubt that the dispute over the supply of grain from Ukraine to the Polish market is an absolute fragment of the entire Polish-Ukrainian relations,” Duda told a business conference. “I don’t believe that it can have a significant impact on them, so we need to solve this matter between us.”
Duda’s comment followed after Prime Minister Morawiecki was reported as saying that Poland would no longer send weapons to Ukraine amid the grain dispute.
“We are no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine because we are now arming Poland with more modern weapons,” Morawiecki said on Wednesday, according to a local media report.
Poland is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on October 15, and Morawiecki’s ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party has come in for criticism from the far right for what it says is the government’s subservient attitude to Kyiv.
Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau said in an article by Politico that Poland wanted to see “a strong Ukrainian state emerge from this war with a vibrant economy”, and that Warsaw “will continue to back Ukraine’s efforts to join NATO and the EU”.
However, speaking to reporters in New York, Rau said that while Poland had not changed its policy towards Ukraine, there had been a “radical change in Polish public opinion’s perception” of the countries’ relationship.
Asked by the PAP news agency what it would take to improve this perception, Rau said repairing the atmosphere would require a “titanic” diplomatic effort.
Slovakia, Poland and Hungary imposed national restrictions on Ukrainian grain imports after the EU executive decided not to extend its ban on imports into those countries as well as fellow EU members Bulgaria and Romania.
The countries have argued that cheap Ukrainian agricultural goods – meant mainly to transit further west and to ports – get sold locally, harming their own farmers.
Speaking in Canada on Friday, Zelenskyy did not mention the tension with Poland but said that when Ukraine lacked support, Russia was strengthened.
“You help either Ukraine or Russia. There will be no mediators in this war. By weakening assistance to Ukraine, you will strengthen Russia,” Zelenskyy told reporters after a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
“And a powerful Russia and what to expect from it… I think history in books and witnesses has long since answered this question. If someone wants to take a risk, fine, weaken assistance to Ukrainians,” he said, according to a statement posted on the Ukrainian president’s website.
“To be frank and honest, freedom, democracy and human rights must be fought for,” he added.
The Kremlin said on Friday that it was watching the situation between Kyiv and Warsaw closely, adding that tensions would inevitably grow between Kyiv and its European allies as the dispute over grain escalates.
“We predict that these frictions between Warsaw and Kyiv will increase. Friction between Kyiv and other European capitals will also grow over time. This is inevitable,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
“We are, of course, watching this closely,” Peskov said, calling Kyiv and Warsaw “the main” centres of Russophobia.
Fierce rainstorms have battered Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria, triggering flooding that caused at least eight deaths, including two holidaymakers swept away by a torrent that raged through a campsite in northwestern Turkey.
In Istanbul, heavy rain flooded streets and homes in two neighbourhoods, killing at least two people, according to a statement from the governor’s office.
About a dozen people were rescued after being stranded inside a library, while some subway stations were shut down.
In Greece, police banned traffic in the central town of Volos, the nearby mountain region of Pilion and the resort island of Skiathos as record rainfall caused at least one death, channelled thigh-high torrents through streets and swept cars away.
Five people were reported missing, possibly swept away by floodwaters.
Authorities sent mobile phone alerts in several other areas of central Greece, the Sporades island chain and the island of Evia, warning people to limit their movements outdoors.
Streams overflowed their banks and swept cars into the sea in the Pilion area, while rockfalls blocked roads; a small bridge was carried away and many areas suffered electricity cuts.
Authorities evacuated a retirement home in the city of Volos as a precaution.
Farther north in Bulgaria, Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov said, two people died and three others were missing after a storm caused floods on the country’s southern Black Sea coast.
Overflowing rivers caused severe damage to roads and bridges. The area also suffered power blackouts, and authorities warned residents not to drink tap water due to contamination from floodwaters.
Ukraine’s defence minister says he hopes training lasts no longer than 6 months so fighter planes can be in combat against Russia soon.
The training of Ukrainian pilots on United States-made F-16 fighter jets is to begin in Romania in August, officials have said on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Lithuania.
Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov announced the Romania training programme on Tuesday alongside Dutch Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren and Denmark’s acting Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen.
“Hopefully, we will be able to see results in the beginning of next year,” Poulsen told reporters.
Resnikov said he hoped the training would last no longer than six months and that by that point, Ukraine will be using the combat aircraft in its fight against Russia’s invasion of his country.
[Al Jazeera]
The Netherlands and Denmark are leading an 11-nation coalition to train Ukrainian pilots on the US fighter jets, which Ukraine argues will help turn the tide of the war in its favour.
Training Ukrainian pilots in the use of advanced fighter planes was previously seen as controversial but received the green light in May at the G7 summit in Japan.
Russia later warned that providing Kyiv with F-16 would be a “colossal risk” as it threatens spreading the war to other parts of Europe.
Though Ukraine’s allies have committed to providing training and other support, the opening of the fighter pilot school does not mean F-16s will actually be delivered to Kyiv. Ukraine’s military supporters have yet to commit to sending warplanes.
Romania announced last week that it intended to set up an F-16 training centre for military pilots from NATO partner states and Ukraine.
Romania, which shares a long border with Ukraine and has been a NATO member since 2004 and a European Union member since 2007, has increased defence spending in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
After Moscow’s forces invaded Ukraine in February 2022, NATO increased its presence on Europe’s eastern flank by sending additional multinational battlegroups to alliance members Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria and Slovakia.
The fighter pilot training facility will aim to position Romania as “a regional leader in the field of F-16 pilot training” and contribute to “improving cohesion, demonstrating unity and strengthening the deterrence and defence posture Euro-Atlantic”, the Romanian government said in a statement.
Romania has played an increasingly prominent role in the alliance throughout Russia’s war in Ukraine, including hosting a NATO meeting of foreign ministers in November. The government has also approved the acquisition of an unspecified number of “latest generation” US-made F-35 fighter jets as part of Romania’s push to modernise its air force.
Ukraine’s farmers played an iconic role in the first weeks of Russia’s invasion, towing away abandoned enemy tanks with their tractors.
Now, though, their prodigious grain output is causing some of Ukraine’s staunchest allies to waver, as disrupted shipments are redirected onto neighboring markets.
The most striking is Poland, which has played a leading role so far in supporting Ukraine, acting as the main transit hub for Western weaponry and sending plenty of its own. But grain shipments in the other direction have irked Polish farmers who are being undercut — just months before a national election where the rural vote will be crucial.
Diplomats are floundering. After a planned Friday meeting between the Polish and Ukrainian agriculture ministers was postponed, the Polish government on Saturday announced a ban on imports of farm products from Ukraine. Hungary late Saturday said it would do the same.
Ukraine is among the world’s top exporters of wheat and other grains, which are ordinarily shipped to markets as distant as Egypt and Pakistan. Russia’s invasion last year disrupted the main Black Sea export route, and a United Nations-brokered deal to lift the blockade has been only partially effective. In consequence, Ukrainian produce has been diverted to bordering EU countries: Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.
At first, those governments supported EU plans to shift the surplus grain. But instead of transiting seamlessly onto global markets, the supply glut has depressed prices in Europe. Farmers have risen up in protest, and Polish Agriculture Minister Henryk Kowalczyk was forced out earlier this month.
Now, governments’ focus has shifted to restricting Ukrainian imports to protect their own markets. After hosting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Warsaw in early April, Polish President Andrzej Duda said resolving the import glut was “a matter of introducing additional restrictions.”
The following day, Poland suspended imports of Ukrainian grain, saying the idea had come from Kyiv. On Saturday, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, after an emergency cabinet meeting, said the import ban would cover grain and certain other farm products and would include products intended for other countries. A few hours later, the Hungarian government announced similar measures. Both countries said the bans would last until the end of June.
The European Commission is seeking further information on the import restrictions from Warsaw and Budapest “to be able to assess the measures,” according to a statement on Sunday. “Trade policy is of EU exclusive competence and, therefore, unilateral actions are not acceptable,” it said.
While the EU’s free-trade agreement with Ukraine prevents governments from introducing tariffs, they still have plenty of tools available to disrupt shipments.
Neighboring countries and nearby Bulgaria have stepped up sanitary checks on Ukrainian grain, arguing they are doing so to protect the health of their own citizens. They have also requested financial support from Brussels and have already received more than €50 million from the EU’s agricultural crisis reserve, with more money on the way.
Restrictions could do further harm to Ukraine’s battered economy, and by extension its war effort. The economy has shrunk by 29.1 percent since the invasion, according to statistics released this month, and agricultural exports are an important source of revenue.
Cracks in the alliance
The trade tensions sit at odds with these countries’ political position on Ukraine, which — with the exception of Hungary — has been strongly supportive. Poland has taken in millions of Ukrainian refugees, while weapons and ammunition flow in the opposite direction; Romania has helped transport millions of tons of Ukrainian corn and wheat.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Poland’s Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki | Omar Marques/Getty Images
Some Western European governments, which had to be goaded by Poland and others into sending heavy weaponry to Kyiv, are quick to point out the change in direction.
“Curious to see that some of these countries are [always] asking for more on sanctions, more on ammunition, etc. But when it affects them, they turn to Brussels begging for financial support,” said one diplomat from a Western country, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Some EU countries also oppose the import restrictions for economic reasons. For instance, Spain and the Netherlands are some of the biggest recipients of Ukrainian grain, which they use to supply their livestock industries.
Politically, though, the Central and Eastern European governments have limited room for maneuver. Poland and Slovakia are both heading into general elections later this year. Bulgaria has had a caretaker government since last year. Romania’s agriculture minister has faced calls to resign, including from a compatriot former EU agriculture commissioner.
And farmers are a strong constituency. Poland’s right-wing Law & Justice (PiS) party won the last general election in 2019 thanks in large part to rural voters. The Ukrainian grain issue has already cost a Polish agriculture minister his job; the government as a whole will have to tread carefully to avoid the same fate.
The reformist bloc, comprised of the We Continue the Change (PP) and Democratic Bulgaria (DB) parties, is expected to struggle to form a stable coalition government.
A pro-Western reformist bloc has won most of the votes in Bulgaria’s parliamentary election, according to exit polls, but it is expected to struggle to form a stable coalition government in the European Union’s poorest member state.
The reformist bloc, comprised of the We Continue the Change (PP) and Democratic Bulgaria (DB) parties, won around 25.3 percent of the vote on Sunday, an exit poll by Gallup International showed, just ahead of a centre-right bloc led by the Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) of former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, which had around 24.7 percent.
The polling agency Trend put PP/DB at 26.9 percent and GERB, along with its smaller partner the Union of Democratic Forces (SDS), at 26.7 percent.
It was Bulgaria’s fifth election in two years, as personal antipathy between the leaders of the two main blocs has hampered the formation of a stable coalition government.
The PP/DB, in particular, accuse Borissov and his GERB party of presiding over rampant corruption in the Balkan state during their decade-long rule that ended in April 2021, something that Borissov denies.
The failure to form a stable government could undermine Bulgaria’s hopes of joining the euro currency zone in the near term and of being able to effectively use European Union COVID-19 recovery aid.
Exit polls show that other parties likely to enter parliament are the Bulgarian Socialist Party; the mainly ethnic Turkish party Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPC); and Revival, a nationalist party sympathetic to Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Ukraine war.
Revival was in third place, with around 14.2 percent, according to Gallup International, potentially allowing it to play a kingmaker role in the new parliament.
The country’s political parties have struggled since 2021 to form stable coalitions, leading to a deeply fragmented parliament and a string of interim governments.
“No one inspires confidence any more,” Krasimir Naydenov, 57, told AFP outside a polling station in Sofia on Sunday.
He said he had voted nonetheless, hoping for “the government to start functioning again”.
MUNICH — NATO’s eastern flank has found its voice — but Joe Biden’s visit is a reminder that Western capitals still have the weight.
After Russia bombed its way into Ukraine, the military alliance’s eastern members won praise for their prescient warnings (not to mention a few apologies). They garnered respect for quickly emptying their weapons stockpiles for Kyiv and boosting defense spending to new heights. Now, they’re driving the conversation on how to deal with Russia.
In short, eastern countries suddenly have the ear of traditional Western powers — and they are trying to move the needle.
“We draw the red line, then we waste the time, then we cross this red line,” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda said over the weekend at the Munich Security Conference, describing a now-familiar cycle of debates among Ukraine’s partners as eastern capitals push others to move faster.
The region’s sudden prominence will be on full display as U.S. President Joe Biden travels to Poland this week, where he will sit down with leaders of the so-called Bucharest Nine — Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.
The choice is both symbolic and practical. Washington is keen to show its eastern partners it wants their input — and to remind Vladimir Putin of the consequences should the Kremlin leader spread his war into NATO territory.
Yet when it comes to allies’ most contentious decisions, like what arms to place where, the eastern leaders ultimately still have to defer to leaders like Biden — and his colleagues in Western powers like Germany. They are the ones holding the largest quantities of modern tanks, fighter jets and long-range missiles, after all.
“My job,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said in Munich, is “to move the pendulum of imagination of my partners in western Europe.”
“Our region has risen in relevance,” added Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský in an interview. But Western countries are still “much stronger” on the economic and military front, he added. “They are still the backbone.”
They’re listening … now
When Latvian Defense Minister Ināra Mūrniece entered politics over a decade ago, she recalled the skepticism that greeted her and like-minded countries when they discussed Russia on the global stage.
“They didn’t understand us,” she said in an interview earlier this month. People saw the region as “escalating the picture,” she added.
Latvian Defense Minister Ināra Mūrniece | Gints Ivuskans/AFP via Getty Images
February 24, 2022, changed things. The images of Russia rolling tanks and troops into Ukraine shocked many Westerners — and started changing minds. The Russian atrocities that came shortly after in places like Bucha and Irpin were “another turning point,” Mūrniece said.
Now, the eastern flank plays a key role in defining the alliance’s narrative — and its understanding of Russia.
“Our voice is now louder and more heard,” said Romanian Foreign Minister Bogdan Aurescu.
The Bucharest Nine — an informal format that brings together the region for dialogue with the U.S. and occasionally other partners — is one of the vehicles regional governments are using to showcase their interests.
“It has become an authoritative voice in terms of assessment of the security situation, in terms of assessment of needs,” Aurescu said in an interview in Munich. NATO is listening to the group for a simple reason, he noted: “The security threats are coming from this part of our neighborhood.”
Power shifts … slowly
While the eastern flank has prodded its western partners to send once-unthinkable weapons to Ukraine, the power balance has not completely flipped. Far from it.
Washington officials retain the most sway in the Western alliance. Behind them, several western European capitals take the lead.
“Without the Germans things don’t move — without the Americans things don’t move for sure,” said one senior western European diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly.
And at this stage of the war, as Ukraine pushes for donations of the most modern weapons — fighter jets, advanced tanks, longer-range missile systems — it’s the alliance’s largest economies and populations that are in focus.
“It’s very easy for me to say that, ‘Of course, give fighter jets’ — I don’t have them,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas told reporters earlier this month.
Asked if his country would supply Kyiv with F-16 fighter jets, Morawiecki conceded in Munich, “we have not too many of them.” | Omar Marques/Getty Images
“So it’s up to those countries to say who have,” she said. “If I would have, I would give — but I don’t.”
And even some eastern countries who have jets don’t want to move without their Western counterparts.
Asked if his country would supply Kyiv with F-16 fighter jets, Morawiecki conceded in Munich, “we have not too many of them.” He did say, however, that Poland could offer older jets — if the allies could pull together a coalition, that is.
Another challenge for advocates of a powerful eastern voice within NATO is that the eastern flank itself is diverse.
Priorities vary even among like-minded countries based on their geographies. And, notably, there are some Russia-friendly outliers.
Hungary, for example, does not provide any weapons assistance to Ukraine and continues to maintain a relationship with the Kremlin. In fact, Budapest has become so isolated in Western policy circles that no Hungarian government officials attended the Munich Security Conference.
“I think the biggest problem in Hungary is the rhetoric of leadership, which sometimes really crosses the red line,” said the Czech Republic’s Lipavský, who was cautious to add that Budapest does fulfill NATO obligations, participating in alliance defense efforts.
Just for now?
There are also questions about whether the east’s moment in the limelight is a permanent fixture or product of the moment. After all, China, not Russia, may be seizing western attention in the future.
“It’s obvious that their voice is becoming louder, but that’s also a consequence of the geopolitical situation we’re in,” said the senior western European diplomat. “I’m not sure if it’s sustainable in the long run.”
A second senior western European diplomat, who also spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive internal alliance dynamics, said that the eastern flank countries sometimes take a tough tone “because of the fear of the pivot to China.”
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has also reiterated that western alliance members play a role in defending the eastern flank | Johannes Simon/Getty Images
Asked if the war has changed the balance of influence within the alliance, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said: “Yes and no.”
“We have to defend our territories, it is as simple as that,” she told POLITICO in Munich. “In order to do so we had to reinforce the eastern flank — Russia is on that part of the continent.”
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has also reiterated that western alliance members play a role in defending the eastern flank.
Asked whether NATO’s center of gravity is shifting east, he said on a panel in Munich that “what has shifted east is NATO’s presence.”
But, he added, “of course many of those troops come from the western part of the alliance — so this demonstrates how NATO is together and how we support each other.”
And in western Europe, there is a sense that the east does deserve attention at the moment.
“They might not have all the might,” said the second senior western European diplomat. “But they deserve solidarity.”
The EU was quick to hit Russia with sanctions after Vladimir Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine — but it took time and an escalation of measures before Moscow started to feel any real damage.
Since the war started in late February last year, November was the first month when the value of EU imports from Russia was lower than in the same month of 2021. Until then, the bloc had been sending more cash than before the conflict — every month, for nine months. More recent data is not yet available.
The main reason behind this? Energy dependency on Russia and skyrocketing energy prices. But that’s not the whole story: Some EU countries were much quicker than others to reduce trade flows with Moscow — and some were still increasing them at the end of last year.
Here is a full breakdown of how the war has changed EU trade with Russia, in figures and charts:
BELGRADE, Serbia — A freight train carrying ammonia derailed in eastern Serbia on Sunday, sickening dozens of people and closing a main international highway, officials said.
A state of emergency was declared in the town of Pirot, with authorities telling residents not to leave their homes. Dozens of people were hospitalized, Serbian state media reported.
Because of limited visibility reportedly caused by the leak, several cars crashed on the main highway that leads to Bulgaria at a time of busy traffic because of the Christmas holidays.
Police closed the highway and redirected traffic to local roads. It wasn’t immediately clear what caused the train to derail.
Ammonia gas leaks can be flammable and can cause serious injury or even death.
BRUSSELS — European Union countries agreed Thursday to allow Croatia to fully open its borders and participate in Europe’s ID-check-free travel zone, but Bulgaria and Romania were told that they must wait longer to be allowed in.
“The Schengen area is growing for the first time in more than a decade,” the Czech Republic, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency tweeted after a meeting of interior ministers in Brussels. “Ministers approved Croatia’s membership as of 1 January 2023!”
The so-called Schengen area is the world’s largest free travel zone. It comprises 26 countries — 22 EU states plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Almost 1.7 million people live in one Schengen country and work in another. Around 3.5 million people cross an internal border each day.
Austria, in particular, had objected to Bulgaria and Romania joining, citing migration concerns.
“When it comes to the accession of Romania and Bulgaria we are not united and that makes us very weak and that makes me also sad,” Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson told reporters after the decision was announced.
“You deserve to be full members of Schengen, you deserve to have access to the free movement in the Schengen area,” Johansson said, adding that the two had strong support from almost all the ministers present.
Full accession for the EU’s newest members — Bulgaria and Romania joined the bloc in 2007, Croatia in 2013 — required unanimous support from their partners.
Last month, the EU’s executive branch, the European Commission, ruled that all three candidate countries meet the technical criteria for joining, and the European Parliament has also voted in favor of their membership.
Croatia’s bid received no notable opposition from its EU partners, and the government in Zagreb hailed the news.
Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic wrote on Facebook that, with the open borders, Croatia “has fulfilled the strategic goals of the government” and that “citizens and the economy will have the biggest benefit.”
“Croatia is in Schengen!” Deputy Prime Minister Davor Božinović enthused.
“There are no more borders on our European journey. We met all the conditions, went through a long and demanding process,” he said. “With Croatia in Schengen, everyone benefits — the citizens, the economy, Croatia and the EU.”
But ahead of Thursday’s meeting Austria appeared almost certain to veto the Bulgarian and Romanian bids over immigration, as increasing numbers of people cross its borders without authorization via the Balkans region.
Austrian Interior Minister Gerhard Karner renewed his country’s staunch opposition, noting that more than 100,000 people have entered Austria this year without authorization.
“The system is not working right now,” he told reporters.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte also sparked a furor last week when he alleged that Bulgarian border security officials could accept cash bribes.
Bulgarian President Rumen Radev hit back, writing on Facebook that three Bulgarian border officials have been killed in recent months while protecting the bloc’s external borders. “Instead of European solidarity,” Radev said, “Bulgaria receives cynicism.”
In an effort to ease their partners’ concerns, Bulgaria and Romania invited EU fact-finding missions with national experts twice in recent months to see how things have improved.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said his country has a clear position: “We want Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania to be fully part of the Schengen area and will continue to work for that.”
“We are also confident that we will succeed in the end,” he added. “This was a day of decisions today, there are more to come, very soon even.”
The President of the Romanian Chamber of Deputies, Marcel Ciolacu, wrote on Facebook after the decision was announced, that “Austria’s unfair opposition is a free Christmas gift” for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“European unity and stability have today received a hard blow from a state that has chosen, in difficult times, to abandon its European comrades and serve … the interests of Russia,” Ciolacu said. “Austria is clearly disconnected from Europe.”
Bulgarian Interior Minister Ivan Demerdzhiev was cautiously optimistic after Thursday’s announcement, saying that he thought common ground could be found to overcome the objections of Austria, and perhaps the Netherlands.
“Austria already signaled that there are mechanisms, compromises that it is ready to accept. So, the talks will continue,” he told reporters.
Honor Keleman, Romania’s Deputy Prime Minister, however, was incensed by the result and vowed to “continue to fight” to join Schengen “without giving in to Austria’s miserable blackmail.”
“Austria’s veto is unfair, immoral, lacking solid arguments, showing a miserable political game,” he wrote on Facebook. “Yes, it is a miserable decision against every Romanian citizen … against the laws governing freedom of movement within the European Union.”
Rights group Amnesty International also noted the decisions with concern, pointing to reports and evidence about migrants being unlawfully detained in some EU countries, notably Croatia.
“Today’s announcement that Croatia is joining the Schengen area shows that the EU condones, and even rewards, these illegal practices, and is willing to sacrifice human rights to prevent people from entering the EU,” said Amnesty’s Western Balkans Researcher Jelena Sesar.
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McGrath reported from Sighisoara, Romania. Dusan Stojanovic in Belgrade, Veselin Toshkov in Sofia, Bulgaria, and Frank Jordans in Berlin contributed to this story.
