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Vestas Wind Systems VWS -3.14%decrease; red down pointing triangle
The Danish wind turbine maker last year unveiled plans to build a new blade factory in Szczecin, near the Baltic Sea coast, to support Europe’s build-out of offshore wind parks.
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Dominic Chopping
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GURUGRAM, India—When the Trump Organization in April announced another luxury real-estate project in India, Eric Trump gave a shout out to his local partners for helping accelerate the brand’s expansion.
“We’re incredibly excited to launch our second project in Gurgaon,” Eric Trump, who runs day-to-day operations, using the former name for the city near New Delhi. “And even prouder to be doing it once again with our amazing partners.”
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Rory Jones
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An employee checks the external casing with a spirit level in a modular house at the Tophat factory in Foston near Derby, UK, on Tuesday, Sept. 12, 2023.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The idea of using pre-assembled components in housebuilding is far from new.
Modern tech-enabled versions of modular housing promise a faster, more sustainable solution to housing crises, according to experts. But the sector has seen better adoption in some countries compared to others where it has failed to scale — such as the U.K.
Prefabrication has existed in many forms, from the defenses used by William the Conqueror in his invasion of England in 1066 to Sears’ mail-order homes in the U.S. in the early 1900s.
Fast forward a century and entire modules can be built in factories to then be combined to create houses in just weeks. Speed is just one advantage that modular homes offer compared with traditional construction, a factor which is key in countries such as the U.K. which continues to face shortages of affordable housing.
The fact that modular housing is also made in a controlled factory environment means less waste is generated, while also resulting in more energy-efficient homes. Andrew Shepherd, managing director at British modular developer TopHat Communities, told CNBC that the firm’s factory had sent “zero waste to landfill” in the last three years.
Building entire sections in one place also means fewer delivery trips to sites, Shepherd explained. A 2022 report from industry group Make UK Modular highlighted that 80% fewer vehicle movements were needed to development sites with modular building.
Another study by academics at the University of Cambridge and Edinburgh Napier University, published in 2022, found that modular home construction can result in 45% less embodied carbon. This refers to the emissions generated in the construction process, including the making and transportation of materials.
Despite these benefits, the sector has seen a number of setbacks in recent years and it remains relatively nascent in the U.K. and U.S.
In January, it was reported that U.K. firm Modulous had entered into liquidation after failing to find a buyer. In the U.K. last year, Ilke Homes collapsed, while Legal & General moved to wind down its modular housing factory. One of the most high-profile failures in the sector was SoftBank-backed Katerra in the U.S., which filed for bankruptcy in 2021.
Jonatan Pinkse, professor of sustainable business at King’s College London, highlighted that part of the challenge for modular construction firms is that they first have to spend money on building a factory in which to construct modules and then need to have the projects in the pipeline to pay for this investment.
He suggested that this presented more difficulty when coupled with the headwinds that also affected the wider construction sector, including higher energy costs and interest rates, as well as a cost-of-living crisis in many nations prompting people to hold off on house buying.
“And if you then can’t profit from a market that is actually going up, but instead is going down, then the problem is simply that [firms] can’t earn back their money fast enough, and investors then lose their trust in the business model,” Pinkse told CNBC.
Pinkse was one of the co-authors on research, published last year, which highlighted some of the issues limiting the use of modular, also known as 3D (volumetric) factory-manufactured modular homes, as the most advanced form of modern methods of construction (MMC).
Suzanne Peters, who also co-authored the research and is a research associate at Alliance Manchester Business School, told CNBC that the construction sector more broadly is a “very tough business” with a higher amount of failures versus other industries. Provisional data from the U.K.’s Insolvency Service, published in January, showed that the construction industry experienced the highest number of insolvencies of any sector in England and Wales in 2023, with 4,371 companies going bust. This equated to nearly one in five insolvencies.
Similarly, Daniel Paterson, director of government affairs at Make UK Modular, said that the modular housing sector had faced a “series of unfortunate events,” as the industry had essentially only launched in the U.K. in its current format in 2016/17. He explained that firms then need around 18 months to build factories, meaning it wasn’t long before the Covid-19 pandemic hit, along with the economic headwinds that followed.
Perceptions based on previous versions of prefabrication was another issue, according to Richard Valentine-Selsey, head of European living research and consultancy at Savills Research.
He told CNBC that, in the U.K., there is the “1960s hangover from prefabrication and the kind of connotations that has with lower quality, things that don’t last and all the kind of negative impacts of that from the building boom post-war.”
In addition, he said that the “construction industry is quite a conservative beast and finds it very challenging at times to change and think forward and innovate unless their forced to do it, which has kind of led to flirtation with new methods but no kind of wholesale change towards delivering using modular.”
Sweden and Japan are the countries cited as leaders in prefabrication. Savills Research highlighted in 2020 that 45% of homes in Sweden were built using offsite construction. In Japan, it said MMC was used in building 15-20% of new homes, though that still equated to between 150,000 and 180,000 homes a year.
By comparison, a Make UK Modular report published last year said more than 3,000 modular homes were being built in the U.K. annually, though there was capacity to build five times that number. A 2023 McKinsey & Company report, meanwhile, said that less than 4% of current U.S. housing stock had been built using modular methods.
In Sweden, one of the major players in this space is BoKlok, which is jointly owned by construction firm Skanska and homes and furniture company Ikea, and has been around since the mid-1990s.
A crane lifts a prefabricated residential housing module onto an apartment block at a modular rental property construction site, operated by Vonovia SE, in Berlin, Germany, on Thursday, Sept. 26, 2019.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Shepherd pointed out that Sweden is also “not a country where you can build 12 months of the year.”
“They have very deep winters with limited daylight, so there is an incentive to look at an alternative construction process to keep people working all year, to get houses delivered at the volume needed,” he explained.
Valentine-Selsey said that in Japan there was also a difference in the approach to residential buildings. “In Japan, the value of the building depreciates over about 30 years, so by the end of that you kind of knock it down and rebuild it because it is worthless,” he explained, making new building methods useful, given that the delivery of new homes is higher.
Looking at these examples, could methods such as modular help tackle the U.K.’s affordable housing shortage?
The current U.K. government has the target of building 300,000 homes a year, but 234,400 were built in 2022-23. Keir Starmer, the leader of the U.K.’s opposition Labour party, has pledged to build 1.5 million homes within a five-year term if his party is elected.
“That’s 300,000 houses a year, and there is zero chance … of that happening if there is not some form different approach adopted,” Shepherd said.
Looking ahead, Valentine-Selsey said he was an “optimist” in his outlook for the modular sector. “I think we’re probably going to see an uptake again over the next five to 10 years,” he said.
However, he believed that greater adoption of other types of MMC, such as panelized solutions, was more likely, but thought “modular will form part of that new mix of delivery.”
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A construction site with new apartments in newly built apartment buildings.
Patrick Pleul | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
Germany’s housebuilding sector has gone from bad to worse in recent months.
Economic data is painting a concerning picture, and industry leaders appear uneasy.
“The housebuilding sector is, I would say, a little bit in a confidence crisis,” Dominik von Achten, chairman of German building materials company Heidelberg Materials, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.
“There are too many things that have gone in the wrong direction,” he said, adding that the company’s volumes were down significantly in Germany.
In January both the current sentiment and expectations for the German residential construction sector fell to all-time lows, according to data from the Ifo Institute for Economic Research. The business climate reading fell to a negative 59 points, while expectations dropped to negative 68.9 points in the month.
“The outlook for the coming months is bleak,” Klaus Wohlrabe, head of surveys at Ifo, said in a press release at the time.
Meanwhile, January’s construction PMI survey for Germany by the Hamburg Commercial Bank also fell to the lowest ever reading at 36.3 â after December’s reading had also been the lowest on record. PMI readings below 50 indicate contraction, and the lower to zero the figure is, the bigger the contraction.
“Of the broad construction categories monitored by the survey, housing activity remained the worst performer, exhibiting a rate of decline that was among the fastest on record,” the PMI report stated.
The issue has also been weighing on Germany’s overall economy.
German Economy and Climate Minister Robert Habeck on Wednesday said the government was slashing its 2024 gross domestic product growth expectations to 0.2% from a previous estimate of 1.3%. Habeck pointed to higher interest rates as a key challenge for the economy, explaining that those had led to reduced investments, especially in the construction sector.
Ifo’s data showed that the amount of companies reporting order cancellations and a lack of orders had eased slightly in January, compared to December. But even so, 52.5% of companies said not enough orders were being placed, which Wohlrabe said was weighing on the sector.
“It’s too early to talk of a trend reversal in residential construction, since the tough conditions have hardly changed at all,” he said. “High interest rates and construction costs aren’t making things any easier for builders.”
Heidelberg Materials’ von Achten however suggested there could be at least some relief on the horizon, saying that there could be good news on the interest rate front.
“I’m positive inflation really comes down now in Germany, maybe the ECB [European Central Bank] is actually earlier in their decrease of interest rates than we all think, lets wait and see, and if that comes then obviously the confidence will also come back,” he said.
Even if interest rate cuts are a slow process, von Achten says as soon as “people see the turning point” confidence should return.
Speaking to the German Parliament about the economic outlook on Thursday, Habeck said the government was expecting inflation to continue falling and return to the 2% target level in 2025.
The European Central Bank said at its most recent meeting in January that discussing rate cuts was “premature,” even as progress was being made on inflation. While the exact timeline for rate cuts remains unclear, markets are widely pricing in the first decrease to take place in June, according to LSEG data. Â Â
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(Updated with Friday’s closing prices.)
The 2023 rally for stocks in the U.S. accelerated as more investors bought the idea that the Federal Reserve succeeded in its effort to bring inflation to heel.
The S&P 500
SPX
ended Friday with a 24.2% gain for 2023, following a 19.4% decline in 2022. (All price changes in this article exclude dividends). Among the 500 stocks, 65% were up for 2023. Below is a list of the year’s 20 best performers in the benchmark index.
This article focuses on large-cap stocks. MarketWatch Editor in Chief Mark DeCambre took a broader look at all U.S. stocks of companies with market capitalizations of at least $1 billion, to list 10 with gains ranging from 412% to 1,924%.
The Fed began raising short-term interest rates and pushing long-term rates higher in March 2022 by allowing its bond portfolio to run off. That explains the poor performance for stocks in 2022, as bonds and even bank accounts because more attractive to investors.
The central bank hasn’t raised the federal-funds rate since moving it to the current target range of 5.25% to 5.50% in July, and its economic projections point to three rate cuts in 2024.
Investors are anticipating the return to a low-rate environment by scooping up 10-year U.S. Treasury notes
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y,
whose yield ended the year at 3.88%, down from 4.84% on Oct. 27 — the day of the S&P 500’s low for the second half of 2023.
Read: Treasury yields end mostly higher but little changed on year after wild 2023
Before looking at the list of best-performing stocks of 2023, here’s a summary of how the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 performed, with the full index and three more broad indexes at the bottom:
| Sector or index | 2023 price change | 2022 price change | Price change since end of 2021 | Forward P/E | Forward P/E at end of 2022 | Forward P/E at end of 2023 |
| Information Technology | 56.4% | -28.9% | 11.5% | 26.7 | 20.0 | 28.2 |
| Communication Services | 54.4% | -40.4% | -7.6% | 17.4 | 14.3 | 21.0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 41.0% | -37.6% | -11.4% | 26.2 | 21.7 | 34.7 |
| Industrials | 16.0% | -7.1% | 8.0% | 20.0 | 18.7 | 22.0 |
| Materials | 10.2% | -14.1% | -4.9% | 19.5 | 15.8 | 16.6 |
| Financials | 9.9% | -12.4% | -3.4% | 14.6 | 13.0 | 16.3 |
| Real Estate | 8.3% | -28.4% | -21.6% | 18.3 | 16.9 | 24.7 |
| Healthcare | 0.3% | -3.6% | -3.3% | 18.2 | 17.7 | 17.3 |
| Consumer Staples | -2.2% | -3.2% | -5.4% | 19.3 | 20.6 | 21.4 |
| Energy | -4.8% | 59.0% | 51.8% | 10.9 | 9.8 | 11.1 |
| Utilities | -10.2% | -1.4% | -11.4% | 15.9 | 18.7 | 20.4 |
|
S&P 500 SPX |
24.2% | -19.4% | 0.4% | 19.7 | 16.8 | 21.6 |
|
Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA |
13.7% | -8.8% | 3.8% | 17.6 | 16.6 | 18.9 |
|
Nasdaq Composite COMP |
43.4% | -33.1% | -3.5% | 26.9 | 22.6 | 32.0 |
|
Nasdaq-100 NDX |
53.8% | -33.0% | 3.5% | 26.3 | 20.9 | 30.3 |
| Source: FactSet | ||||||
A look at 2023 price action really needs to encompass what took place in 2022 for context. The broad indexes haven’t moved much from their levels at the end of 2022 (again, excluding dividends). We have included current forward price-to-earnings ratios along with those at the end of 2021 and 2022. These valuations have declined a bit, which may provide some comfort for investors wondering how likely it is for stocks to continue to rally in 2024.
Here are the 20 stocks in the S&P 500 whose prices rose the most in 2023:
| Company | Ticker | 2023 price change | 2022 price change | Price change since end of 2021 | Forward P/E | Forward P/E at end of 2022 | Forward P/E at end of 2021 |
| Nvidia Corp. |
NVDA, |
239% | -50% | 68% | 24.9 | 34.4 | 58.0 |
| Meta Platforms Inc. Class A |
META, |
194% | -64% | 5% | 20.2 | 14.7 | 23.5 |
| Royal Caribbean Group |
RCL, |
162% | -36% | 68% | 14.3 | 14.9 | 232.4 |
| Builders FirstSource Inc. |
BLDR, |
157% | -24% | 95% | 14.2 | 10.7 | 13.3 |
| Uber Technologies Inc. |
UBER, |
149% | -41% | 47% | 56.9 | N/A | N/A |
| Carnival Corp. |
CCL, |
130% | -60% | -8% | 18.7 | 41.3 | N/A |
| Advanced Micro Devices Inc. |
AMD, |
128% | -55% | 2% | 39.7 | 17.7 | 43.1 |
| PulteGroup Inc. |
PHM, |
127% | -20% | 81% | 9.1 | 6.3 | 6.2 |
| Palo Alto Networks Inc. |
PANW, |
111% | -25% | 59% | 50.2 | 38.0 | 70.1 |
| Tesla Inc. |
TSLA, |
102% | -65% | -29% | 66.2 | 22.3 | 120.3 |
| Broadcom Inc. |
AVGO, |
100% | -16% | 68% | 23.2 | 13.6 | 19.8 |
| Salesforce Inc. |
CRM, |
98% | -48% | 4% | 28.0 | 23.8 | 53.5 |
| Fair Isaac Corp. |
FICO, |
94% | 38% | 168% | 47.1 | 29.3 | 28.7 |
| Arista Networks Inc. |
ANET, |
94% | -16% | 64% | 32.7 | 22.3 | 41.4 |
| Intel Corp. |
INTC, |
90% | -49% | -2% | 26.6 | 14.6 | 13.9 |
| Jabil Inc. |
JBL, |
87% | -3% | 81% | 13.5 | 7.9 | 10.3 |
| Lam Research Corp. |
LRCX, |
86% | -42% | 9% | 25.2 | 13.5 | 20.2 |
| ServiceNow Inc. |
NOW, |
82% | -40% | 9% | 56.0 | 42.6 | 90.1 |
| Amazon.com Inc. |
AMZN, |
81% | -50% | -9% | 42.0 | 46.7 | 64.9 |
| Monolithic Power Systems Inc. |
MPWR, |
78% | -28% | 28% | 49.1 | 27.3 | 57.9 |
| Source: FactSet | |||||||
Click on the tickers for more about each company.
Don’t miss: Nvidia tops list of Wall Street’s 20 favorite stocks for 2024
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November’s sharp pullback in 30-year fixed mortgage rates may not last if the labor market remains strong, said Mark Palim, deputy chief economist at Fannie Mae.
Palim was speaking to the robust jobs report released on Friday, showing the U.S. added 199,000 jobs in November and that wages rose, albeit with the figures somewhat inflated by the return of striking workers from the auto industry and from Hollywood.
Homebuyers can benefit from a robust labor market and the near 80 basis point decline in mortgage rates since the end of October, Palim said. But if the “labor markets remain this strong, we believe the pace of mortgage rate declines will likely not continue in the near term or may partially reverse,” he said in a statement.
The benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate was edging down to 7.05% on Friday, after surging to nearly 8% in October, according to Mortgage Daily News.
Optimism around the potential for falling mortgage costs to thaw home sales helped lift shares of Toll Brothers Inc.,
TOL,
and a slew of other homebuilders tracked by the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF,
XH,
to record highs earlier this week, even while investors in some homebuilder bonds have been sellers in recent weeks.
Yields on 10-year
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
and 30-year Treasury notes
BX:TMUBMUSD30Y
were up sharply Friday, to about 4.23% and 4.32%, respectively, but still below the highs of about 5% in October. The surge in long-term borrowing costs was stoked by tough talk by Federal Reserve officials about the need to keep rates higher for longer to bring inflation down to a 2% annual target.
Read: Solid job growth, sharp wage gains sends Treasury yields up by the most in months
U.S. stocks were up Friday afternoon, shaking off earlier weakness following the jobs report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
was 0.2% higher, further narrowing the gap between its last record close set two years ago, the S&P 500 index
SPX
and the Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP
also were up 0.2%, according to FactSet data.
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Updated Oct. 26, 2023 12:05 am ET
With China’s property bust threatening to sink the country’s economic recovery, Xi Jinping is looking for someone to blame.
After putting the billionaire founder of Evergrande, a heavily indebted property firm, under investigation for possible crimes, Beijing is expanding its probes to include bankers and financial institutions that facilitated developers’ risky behavior, people familiar with the matter say.
Copyright ©2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
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This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies for distribution to your colleagues, clients or customers visit http://www.djreprints.com.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-movers-cd3606a2
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KB Home shares declined in the extended session Wednesday even after the home builder reported results that topped Wall Street estimates, hiked its revenue forecast for the year and reported steady demand amid rising mortgage rates.
KB Home KBH shares slid more than 2% after hours, following a 0.7% decline in the regular session to close at $48.06.
The…
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The numbers: Construction of new U.S. homes fell 11.3% in August — falling short of Wall Street expectations — as builders scaled back new projects to focus on completions.
The pace of construction reversed course and fell as mortgage rates stayed over 7%, dampening home-buying demand. The last time construction of new homes was at this level was in June 2020.
So-called housing starts fell to a 1.28 million annual pace from 1.45 million in August, the government said Tuesday. That’s how many houses would be built over an entire year if construction took place at the same rate every month as it did in August.
Economists on Wall Street were expecting a drop in starts to 1.43 million. All numbers are seasonally adjusted.
Housing starts peaked at 1.8 million in April 2022.
The number of homes started in July was revised downwards, to an increase of 2% to 1.45 million, from an initial reading of a 3.9% gain.
More from MarketWatch: Meet the brave Americans buying and selling their homes, despite stubbornly high interest rates
New homes have dominated the housing market, but persistently high rates are beginning to spook home builders. In anticipation of waning demand, builders said they’ve started to ramp up price cuts to boost buyer demand in September, according to a survey by the National Association of Home Builders.
Building permits, a sign of future construction, rose 6.9% to a 1.54 million rate. That’s the highest level since October 2022.
Key details: The construction pace of single-family homes fell by 4.3% in August, and apartment-building construction fell by 26.3%.
But home builders ramped up single-family home construction in the South, where starts rose by 8.1% in August.
Housing starts fell the most in the West, by 28.9%.
Permits for single-family homes rose 2% in August, while permits for buildings with at least five units or more surged by 14.8%.
Around 1.69 million homes were under construction as of August.
Big picture: Builders are increasingly concerned about how 7% rates will impact demand, and they’re pulling back on starting new developments as a result.
Builder confidence in September fell to the lowest level in five months, according to the NAHB. Home builders are increasingly offering incentives, including cutting prices. The share of builders cutting prices to boost sales rose to the highest level in nine months, the NAHB noted, going up to 32% in September from 25% the previous month.
Nonetheless, given the long-term need for housing and a decade of underbuilding, builders may not see a sustained drop in demand.
What are they saying? Despite starts falling sharply in August, the uptick in building permits “suggests housing starts could pick up modestly again and today’s data could reflect some volatility,” CIBC Economics said in a note. “Nonetheless, the cooling in building activity is a good sign for the Fed which is expecting to limit housing market activity in an effort to contain inflation.”
Rates have peaked, but “will remain elevated for the rest of the year,” Capital Economics wrote in a note. And this means that with “a slowing economy, we expect this will lead single-family starts to flatten-off at around 900,000 annualised until mid-2024, after which an economic recovery will help spur buyer demand and supporting renewed homebuilder confidence,” they added.
Market reaction: U.S. stocks
DJIA
SPX
were set to open higher early Tuesday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
rose above 4.3%.
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Shares of Chinese property developers rose sharply Monday, as more major Chinese cities said over the weekend that they would ease mortgage policies in a bid to shore up the real-estate sector.
The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index rose 8.2%. Hong Kong-listed Longfor Group Holdings
960,
climbed 10% and Seazen Group
1030,
jumped 17%. Shanghai-Listed Gemdale
600383,
added 4.1% and China Vanke
000002,
gained 1.4%.
Major Chinese cities across the country, including Beijing and Shanghai, lowered mortgage requirements for some home buyers late last week, lowering the bar for home purchases.
“This nationwide policy measure marks a significant step in stimulating the property sector, as top policymakers become increasingly worried about the collapse of the property sector, the downward spiral, and a rising number of credit risk events among major developers and financial institutions since mid-August,” Nomura analysts said in a note.
Separately, news reports over the weekend saying that property giant Country Garden Holdings
2007,
received creditor approval to extend a bond also lifted the mood and supported the company’s shares. Country Garden shares were last up 9.0% at 0.97 Hong Kong dollars (12 U.S. cents).
Year to date, Country Garden’s stock has slumped 64% after the company posted its worst loss since going public 16 years ago and missed $22.5 million in interest payments on its dollar bonds in August.
Despite Chinese authorities’ supportive policies and Country Garden’s bond extension, some analysts warned that the extension could just be a near-term reprieve.
“With the lack of an eventual resolution [for Country Garden],” headwinds linger for the Chinese property sector, IG Asia analysts said in a note.
“Persistent earnings weakness will no doubt drive the sector’s leverage higher,” said S&P Global Ratings credit ratings analyst Oscar Chung.
S&P believes industry leaders and real-estate companies with a diverse business mix such as rental and service incomes can better withstand declining development margins.
Write to Bingyan Wang at bingyan.wang@wsj.com
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The numbers: Builder confidence waned in August as the 30-year mortgage rate surged, dampening U.S. home-buying interest.
Despite a persistent shortage of homes on the market for resale, builders have lost confidence in the late summer amid declining customer traffic from higher mortgage rates, as well as challenges in the construction process.
Mortgage…
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Home Depot, Target, Cisco, Deere, Walmart, and More Stocks to Watch This Week
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The thing that will make companies lower prices is if consumers stop complaining about paying more for the things they need and want, and actually start refusing to buy them.
As the U.S. corporate earnings-reporting season progresses, with earnings from major retailers Walmart Inc.
WMT,
Target Corp.
TGT,
and Home Depot Inc.
HD,
on tap next week, investors can get a ground-floor view of how consumer demand may have been hurt, or not, by higher prices, and what the companies plan to do, or not do, about it.
This dynamic of how consumers adjust their spending habits when prices change is referred to by economists as the price elasticity of demand.
“ For companies to cut prices, ‘you have to have the consumer go on strike, and they’re not there yet.’”
Those who trust companies will choose to ratchet down prices on their own, or at least not raise them because the rise in input costs has been slowing, haven’t been listening to what the many companies have told analysts on their post-earnings-report conference calls.
Read: U.S. inflation eases again, PCE shows. Prices rise at slowest pace in almost two years.
Kraft Heinz Co.
KHC,
acknowledged after its second-quarter report that its relatively higher prices have hurt demand, but not by enough for the food and condiments company to consider cutting prices.
Colgate-Palmolive Co.
CL,
said it will continue to raise prices, even as inflation slows and selling volume declines, as the consumer-products company continues to be laser focused on boosting margins and profits.
And while PepsiCo Inc.
PEP,
was worried that elasticities would increase, given how its lower-income customers were being particularly pressured by inflation, the beverage and snack giant reported strong results as it witnessed “better elasticities” in most of the markets in which it operated.
“Obviously, there is still carryover pricing, and I don’t think we’ll do anything different than our normal cycles on pricing in the balance of the year,” PepsiCo Chief Financial Officer Hugh Johnston told analysts, according to an AlphaSense transcript.
Basically, as MarketWatch has reported, so-called greedflation is alive and well.
Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group, said as long as the job market stays strong, as it is now, corporate greed will continue to pay off.
“If something is more expensive, and you have a job, you’ll complain about it, but you won’t substitute it for something cheaper,” Cox said. For companies to cut prices, “you have to have the consumer go on strike, and they’re not there yet,” Cox added.
“ ‘At some point, people are going to say, “All right — enough.” ’ ”
The reason elasticity is so important in the current environment is that, as long as consumers continue to pay the higher prices companies are charging, inflation will remain stubbornly high, making it, in turn, more likely that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates or, at the very least, not lower them.
But the longer interest rates stay high enough to crimp economic growth, the more likely the stock market will reverse lower as recession fears rise.
“At some point, people are going to say, ‘All right — enough,’ ” said Paul Nolte, senior wealth manager and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management. “But we just haven’t seen that yet.”
What is elasticity?
Economists use the term “price elasticity of demand” to refer to the way in which consumers adjust their spending habits when prices change.
“Elasticity tries to measure how much more producers will want to produce if prices rise, and how much more consumers will want to buy if prices fall,” explained Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica.
Elasticity often depends on the type of product a company sells.
For example, consumer-discretionary-goods companies that sell products and services that people want will often experience greater price elasticity than consumer-staples companies that sell things that people need, such as groceries and prescription drugs.
But even for needs, consumers often still have a choice, as less expensive generic, or private-label, alternatives may be available.
Andre Schulten, chief financial officer of consumer-staples maker Procter & Gamble Co.
PG,
which recently beat earnings expectations as it continued to raise prices, telling analysts that, while there was “some trading into private label,” the overall market share of private-label products was unchanged for the year.
As Harris Financial’s Cox said, consumers may be complaining about higher prices, but they aren’t yet desperate enough to stop buying.
The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book economic survey stated that business contacts in some districts had observed a “reluctance” to raise prices as consumers appeared to have grown more sensitive to prices, but other districts reported “solid demand” allowed companies to maintain prices and profitability.
That’s likely why companies and analysts have become less concerned about price elasticity. Based on a FactSet analysis, mentions of the word “elasticity” in press releases and conference calls of S&P 500 companies
SPX
increased as inflation and interest rates started surging in early 2022 through the end of the year.
With inflation trends softening this year, the Fed took a brief pause in raising rates in June, helping fuel further stock-market gains, before raising rates again in July.
FactSet
As the chart shows, “elasticity” popped up in more than 55% of earnings releases and conference calls in mid-2022, but with the second-quarter 2023 earnings-reporting season more than half over, mentions had dropped to about 20%.
Perhaps that will pick up, as retailers, especially those catering to lower-income customers — recall the PepsiCo comment — assess the demand impact of continued price increases.
Meanwhile, the branded-foods company Conagra Brands Inc.
CAG,
whose wide-ranging food brands including Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Hunt’s, Orville Redenbacher’s and Slim Jim, were starting to see the emergence of a different dynamic.
Chief Executive Sean Connolly said consumers were shifting behavior in some categories as prices remained high. Rather than trade down to lower-priced alternatives, he noticed some consumers buying fewer items overall, “more of a hunkering down than a trading down.”
That’s exactly the kind of consumer behavior that is needed, if companies are to stop feeding into the greedflation phenomenon and to start pulling back on prices.
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The second-quarter earnings season so far is showing that one trend that featured in the first quarter has not gone away.
“Greedflation,” or the practice of companies raising prices to protect their profit margins, is alive and well, based on the number of companies that have so far acknowledged raising prices yet again, even as inflation readings have come down and as some acknowledge that their input costs are falling.
At the same time, companies continue to emphasize on earnings calls that their customers are showing signs they are weary of higher prices and are shopping more frequently at more stores, while spending less per trip.
See: Consumers are shopping in more stores than ever before to save money
“Across industries, we’ve seen the same story over and over the last two years,” said Liz Zelnick, director of economic security and corporate power at Accountable.US, a liberal-leaning consumer-advocacy group.
“CEOs claim outside forces made them gouge consumers, then turn around and give themselves raises and boast of record profits and billions in new investor handouts,” she said, referring to the billions of stock buybacks and dividend payouts the same companies have made.
See: U.S. inflation slows again, CPI shows, as Fed weighs another rate hike
Also read: U.S. wholesale inflation slows to a crawl, PPI shows
Procter & Gamble Co.
PG,
for example, said it raised prices by up to 9% in its latest quarter, after raising them up to 10% the previous quarter and up to 10% in the same quarter in 2022.
On a call with analysts, Chief Executive Jon Moeller signaled more price increases to come, which he attributed to the company’s innovation pipeline, which is creating must-have products.
“If you look back historically, pricing has been a positive contributor to our top-line growth for something like 48 out of the 51 last quarters and again as we strengthen our innovation program even further, that will provide opportunities to continue to benefit from modest pricing,” said Moeller, according to a FactSet transcript.
See also: Colgate to keep raising prices as inflation slows to boost margins and profit
The company blew past earnings estimates with adjusted per-share earnings of $1.37, ahead of the $1.32 FactSet consensus, and sales of $20.6 billion, versus the $20 billion FactSet consensus.
Gross margin increased 380 basis points from a year ago, driven by 340 basis points of pricing benefit and 290 basis points of productivity savings.
Coca-Cola Co.
KO,
also swept past estimates and raised guidance after the drinks and snacks giant increased prices by 10%. The company’s adjusted operating margin rose to 31.6% from 30.6% a year ago.
Conagra Brands Inc.
CAG,
raised prices by up to 17%, which Chief Executive Sean Connolly described as “inflation-justified.” The parent of brands such as Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Hunt’s, Orville Redenbacher’s and Slim Jim also reported that its customers are buying less food to stretch their budgets.
For more, see: Consumers are now ‘hunkering down’ rather than ‘trading down’ on groceries, Conagra says
Oreo cookie maker Mondelez International Inc.
MDLZ,
raised prices in North America by 10.4 percentage points in the second quarter and raised prices for all developed markets by 12.4 percentage points. That’s after raising North America prices by 15 percentage points and prices in developed markets by 13.4 percentage points in the first quarter.
The company’s second-quarter gross margins expanded by 3.1 percentage points to 39.4%. Revenues rose 17%, while volumes were flat.
At Campbell Soup Co.
CPB,
sales for its fiscal third quarter were up 5%, led by “favorable net price realization,” as the company disclosed as the very first bullet point in its release. Campbell raised prices of meals and beverages by 9% and if snacks by 15%, after raising them by 15% and 13%, respectively, in the second quarter.
However, volumes were down in the third quarter as shoppers proved sensitive to higher prices.
Kraft Heinz Co.
KHC,
on Tuesday said it too has lost business because it raised prices more than its competitors, but it’s not planning to cut prices to try to get those customers back anytime soon.
“[W]hile we did lose share in the quarter, as price gaps have stayed wider for longer than we would have liked, we are managing the business for the long term and still generated mid-single-digit top-line growth within the range of what we expected,” Chief Executive Miguel Patricio said.
The company, parent to brands including Kraft Mac and Cheese, Heinz Ketchup, Jell-O and Lunchables, indicated on the post-earnings conference call with analysts that rather than increasing discounting, or just cutting prices, it will remain focused on protecting margins, which has been allowing it to accelerate investment in the business, particularly in marketing, research and development and technology.
Besides, as Chief Financial Officer Andre Maciel said, the gaps between Kraft’s prices and those of competitors are not getting worse. “If anything, they are slightly getting better,” Maciel said, according to an AlphaSense transcript.
Considering the market-share losses and with inflation coming down, “do you think you took too much price, given you said you took price ahead of competitors, and they have not followed?” UBS analyst Cody Ross asked on the conference call.
CEO Miguel Patricio’s answer was simple: “No.”
“I mean, we had very high inflation. And we are leaders in the vast majority of categories where we play. And it’s our role as leader to try to compensate … this inflation with price increases,” Patricio said. “So I would do everything again. I mean we can always go back on price if we think we have to or when we have to. But we had to lead price increases.”
All of that leaves families to foot the bill for higher food prices, said Accountable.US’s Zelnick.
The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund
XLP
has gained 1.2% in the year to date, while the SPDR S&P Retail ETF
XRT
has gained 10.3%. The S&P 500
XRT
has gained 17%.
Tomi Kilgore contributed.
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The second-quarter earnings season so far is showing that one trend that featured in the first quarter has not gone away.
“Greedflation,” or the practice of companies raising prices to protect their profit margins, is alive and well, based on the number of companies that have so far acknowledged raising prices yet again, even as inflation readings have come down and as some acknowledge that their input costs are falling.
At the same time, companies continue to emphasize on earnings calls that their customers are showing signs they are weary of higher prices and are shopping more frequently at more stores, while spending less per trip.
See: Consumers are shopping in more stores than ever before to save money
“Across industries, we’ve seen the same story over and over the last two years,” said Liz Zelnick, director of economic security and corporate power at Accountable.US, a liberal-leaning consumer-advocacy group.
“CEOs claim outside forces made them gouge consumers, then turn around and give themselves raises and boast of record profits and billions in new investor handouts,” she said, referring to the billions of stock buybacks and dividend payouts the same companies have made.
See: U.S. inflation slows again, CPI shows, as Fed weighs another rate hike
Also read: U.S. wholesale inflation slows to a crawl, PPI shows
Procter & Gamble Co.
PG,
for example, said it raised prices by up to 9% in its latest quarter, after raising them up to 10% the previous quarter and up to 10% in the same quarter in 2022.
On a call with analysts, Chief Executive Jon Moeller signaled more price increases to come, which he attributed to the company’s innovation pipeline, which is creating must-have products.
“If you look back historically, pricing has been a positive contributor to our top-line growth for something like 48 out of the 51 last quarters and again as we strengthen our innovation program even further, that will provide opportunities to continue to benefit from modest pricing,” said Moeller, according to a FactSet transcript.
See also: Colgate to keep raising prices as inflation slows to boost margins and profit
The company blew past earnings estimates with adjusted per-share earnings of $1.37, ahead of the $1.32 FactSet consensus, and sales of $20.6 billion, versus the $20 billion FactSet consensus.
Gross margin increased 380 basis points from a year ago, driven by 340 basis points of pricing benefit and 290 basis points of productivity savings.
Coca-Cola Co.
KO,
also swept past estimates and raised guidance after the drinks and snacks giant increased prices by 10%. The company’s adjusted operating margin rose to 31.6% from 30.6% a year ago.
Conagra Brands Inc.
CAG,
raised prices by up to 17%, which Chief Executive Sean Connolly described as “inflation-justified.” The parent of brands such as Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Hunt’s, Orville Redenbacher’s and Slim Jim also reported that its customers are buying less food to stretch their budgets.
For more, see: Consumers are now ‘hunkering down’ rather than ‘trading down’ on groceries, Conagra says
Oreo cookie maker Mondelez International Inc.
MDLZ,
raised prices in North America by 10.4 percentage points in the second quarter and raised prices for all developed markets by 12.4 percentage points. That’s after raising North America prices by 15 percentage points and prices in developed markets by 13.4 percentage points in the first quarter.
The company’s second-quarter gross margins expanded by 3.1 percentage points to 39.4%. Revenues rose 17%, while volumes were flat.
At Campbell Soup Co.
CPB,
sales for its fiscal third quarter were up 5%, led by “favorable net price realization,” as the company disclosed as the very first bullet point in its release. Campbell raised prices of meals and beverages by 9% and if snacks by 15%, after raising them by 15% and 13%, respectively, in the second quarter.
However, volumes were down in the third quarter as shoppers proved sensitive to higher prices.
Kraft Heinz Co.
KHC,
on Tuesday said it too has lost business because it raised prices more than its competitors, but it’s not planning to cut prices to try to get those customers back anytime soon.
“[W]hile we did lose share in the quarter, as price gaps have stayed wider for longer than we would have liked, we are managing the business for the long term and still generated mid-single-digit top-line growth within the range of what we expected,” Chief Executive Miguel Patricio said.
The company, parent to brands including Kraft Mac and Cheese, Heinz Ketchup, Jell-O and Lunchables, indicated on the post-earnings conference call with analysts that rather than increasing discounting, or just cutting prices, it will remain focused on protecting margins, which has been allowing it to accelerate investment in the business, particularly in marketing, research and development and technology.
Besides, as Chief Financial Officer Andre Maciel said, the gaps between Kraft’s prices and those of competitors are not getting worse. “If anything, they are slightly getting better,” Maciel said, according to an AlphaSense transcript.
Considering the market-share losses and with inflation coming down, “do you think you took too much price, given you said you took price ahead of competitors, and they have not followed?” UBS analyst Cody Ross asked on the conference call.
CEO Miguel Patricio’s answer was simple: “No.”
“I mean, we had very high inflation. And we are leaders in the vast majority of categories where we play. And it’s our role as leader to try to compensate … this inflation with price increases,” Patricio said. “So I would do everything again. I mean we can always go back on price if we think we have to or when we have to. But we had to lead price increases.”
All of that leaves families to foot the bill for higher food prices, said Accountable.US’s Zelnick.
The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund
XLP
has gained 1.2% in the year to date, while the SPDR S&P Retail ETF
XRT
has gained 10.3%. The S&P 500
XRT
has gained 17%.
Tomi Kilgore contributed.
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U.S. stock futures stumbled Wednesday after markets were rattled by a downgrade to the U.S. government’s credit rating.
On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
rose 71 points, or 0.2%, to 35631, the S&P 500
SPX
declined 12 points, or 0.27%, to 4577, and the Nasdaq Composite
COMP
dropped 62 points, or 0.43%, to 14284.
Equity-index futures are succumbing to a broad risk off tone across markets after rating agency Fitch downgraded the U.S.’s credit rating from AAA to AA+, citing “expected fiscal deterioration” and an “erosion of governance”.
Fitch’s move follows a similar downgrade by S&P more than a decade ago. The U.S. Treasury market acts as a global benchmark upon which many financial products are based and so uncertainty about its stability can cause anxiety for investors.
The news found a stock market arguably vulnerable to unwelcome surprises, with the S&P 500 having already gained 19.2% this year and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite up 36.5%.
The CBOE VIX Index , an option-based gauge of expected S&P 500 volatility, jumped 16% to 16.2, its highest in nearly four weeks.
Traditional perceived havens saw demand, with the Japanese yen
USDJPY,
gaining 0.7%, gold
GC00,
nudging up to $1,950 an ounce, and benchmark German government bond yields
BX:TMBMKDE-10Y
moving lower. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields
BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
were little changed at 4.03%.
However, most analysts did not see the downgrade causing the stock market much long term damage.
“While debt downgrades seldom, if ever, have long legs, investors may pause and let the dust settle before re-entering risk markets. However, within this super market-friendly environment of stable growth and a Fed close to the end of its hiking cycle creating fertile ground for stock gains, its unlikely risk sentiment will wander too far off the soft landing path,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management.
Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said “the market remains sensitive as the final throes of earnings season rumble on, but 82% of S&P 500 companies that have reported results so far have surprised to the upside, offering a bit of a sentiment buffer.”
Earnings results due Wednesday include CVS Health
CVS,
Humana
HUM,
and Carlyle Group
CG,
before the opening bell, followed after the close by PayPal
PYPL,
Shopify
SHOP,
and Qualcomm
QCOM,
U.S. economic updates set for release on Wednesday include the ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m. Eastern.
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When Amazon.com Inc. and Apple Inc. report quarterly results on Thursday, we’ll get a look at two big companies, with big expectations, trying to do smaller things — or at least less exciting things, or things that might be more inconveniencing to customers — to stay bigger.
For Apple
AAPL,
D.A. Davidson analyst Tom Forte said, the focus will be on the iPhone, as always, as well as demand abroad and a new VR headset, as its stock hovers near record highs and its market value holds above $3 trillion. And he said that Amazon
AMZN,
meanwhile, could face questions about the impact of cost cuts on e-commerce growth, and what AI could do to boost slower growth in its cloud business.
The results from those companies, which are big enough to make or break a single quarter’s worth for the S&P 500 Index
SPX,
will follow those from the other tech giants like Microsoft Corp.
MSFT,
and Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
And they’ll arrive as Wall Street starts to get a tad more realistic about AI: Microsoft shares fell after management said the expansion of its AI capabilities would be “gradual” — and gradually more expensive.
D.A. Davidson analyst Tom Forte, in a research note this month, said Amazon, like other big tech companies, was taking more steps to control its costs. That might help margins, he said. But he said he’d be watching for any impact to e-commerce sales growth, following thousands of layoffs and pulling back on its expansion of Amazon Fresh.
Amazon began tacking on servicing fees onto some Amazon Fresh delivery orders this year. And Forte noted what he said were other tweaks to service: Charging for a home pickup of a defective smoke alarm that used to be free, and incentives to wait longer during Prime Day.
“In our view, Amazon is playing a ‘game of chicken’ and banking on other e-commerce companies not to offer a superior service, instead of its historical approach of working backwards with a customer-obsessed approach,” D.A. Davidson analyst Tom Forte said in a research note.
He added later: “We believe there is something to be said about the experience of having an Amazon-branded delivery vehicle show up at your house EVERY day. Having one show up once a week or twice is not the same.”
At Apple, Forte said in a separate note, the iPhone, whose sales were still solid, had turned into more of a consumer staple than a discretionary buy. He also said he’d be looking for more detail about the upcoming iPhone 15 — likely to be modestly fancier than previous iPhones — the recovery in China and growth in India. Apple last month also unveiled its Vision Pro VR headset — for $3,499. Forte said he had his doubts.
“We believe Apple will have to overcome a number of structural challenges to achieve mass adoption for its AR/VR headset,” he said.
Apple and Amazon will report as more companies than normal report quarterly profit ahead of estimates, according to a FactSet report on Friday. For the week ahead, 170 S&P 500 companies report results, with four from the Dow, the repot said.
Results from Uber Technologies Inc.
UBER,
and DoorDash Inc.
DASH,
will offer an update on the gig economy and how far app-based deliveries can go, while results from Kraft Heinz Inc.
KHC,
will offer an update on food prices and how much they might ease from the highs seen in recent months.
With the “Barbie” movie lifting rival Mattel Inc.
MAT,
results from Hasbro Inc
HAS,
during the week will offer a glance at the rest of the toy industry, where demand hasn’t exactly been great, and what entertainment options Hasbro has up its sleeve to keep apace with its archrival. Drug maker Pfizer Inc.
PFE,
reports, as does video-game maker Electronic Arts Inc.
EA,
Starbucks Corp.
SBUX,
reports as well.
“Barbie,” the Hollywood strike and Warner Bros. Discovery: Mattel has said it wants to turn “Barbie” into a content franchise. Now we’ll hear what Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.
WBD,
the media conglomerate that produced the film, thinks about the film’s results and its prospects, as studios increasingly pump out sequels or offshoots of well-known, established character universes like “Star Wars,” Marvel and DC. The company — which reports oversees Warner Bros. CNN, TNT and the streaming service Max — reports quarterly results on Thursday. But even as “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” carry the parts of the entertainment industry that are still functioning through the Hollywood strike, Wall Street will likely be focused on contingency plans, and any sense of whether more viewers are turning to streaming with productions on pause.
Payments and crypto volumes: Results this week from trading app Robinhood Markets Inc.
HOOD,
and crypto exchange Coinbase Global Inc.
COIN,
along with PayPal Holdings Inc.
PYPL,
and Block
SQ,
will land at the intersection of rebounding markets and job-market concerns.
UBS analysts predicted solid growth and cost control for Block, and “steady” e-commerce trends for PayPal. But BofA analysts said PayPal’s search for a new chief executive, following the announcement of Dan Schulman’s retirement at the end of the year, would become more important, adding that “we think investors should rightfully expect the CEO search to conclude in the near-term.” While Bitcoin’s rebound helped Coinbase, the company and others in the industry face the prospect of tougher regulations. Robinhood and PayPal report on Wednesday. Coinbase and Block report on Thursday.
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Mayors in cities across the U.S. want to loosen rules that can slow the pace of office-to-residential conversions. In some instances, cities have offered generous tax abatements to developers who build new housing.
“We have a great opportunity to change the uses in the downtown,” said Washington, DC, Mayor Muriel Bowser at a December 2022 news conference in support of her housing budget proposals.
“It’s absolutely a budget gimmick” said Erica Williams, executive director at the DC Fiscal Policy Institute, referring to Bowser’s 2023 proposal to increase the downtown developer tax break. “We fully support the idea that some of these buildings could be turned into residential properties or into mixed-use properties, but that we don’t necessarily need to subsidize that.”
In New York City, a task force of planners assembled by Mayor Eric Adams is studying the effects of zoning changes, and possible abatements for developers who include affordable units in conversions.
Cities like Philadelphia have previously embraced these policies to revitalize their downtowns. In Philadelphia, homeowners and investors received more than $1 billion in tax breaks for their renovation projects.
A small collective of developers have taken on this challenging slice of the real estate business. Since 2000, 498 buildings have been converted in the U.S., creating 49,390 new housing units through the final quarter of 2022, according to real estate services firm CBRE.
Prominent investors Societe Generale and KKR have worked with developers like Philadelphia-based Post Brothers to finance institutional-scale office conversions in expensive central business districts.
“Capital has gotten much more limited,” said Michael Pestronk, CEO of Post Brothers. “We’re able to get financing today. … It is a lot more expensive than it was a year ago.”
Many experts believe local governments will alter zoning laws and building codes to make these conversions easier over the years.
“Our rules are in the way, and we need to fix that,” said Dan Garodnick, director of New York City’s Department of City Planning.
Watch the video above to learn how cities are getting developers to convert more offices into apartments.
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The construction industry posted a slight gain in May as companies and the government increased spending on projects across the U.S.
Spending on construction projects rose 0.9% in May to $1.93 trillion, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
Wall Street was expecting construction spending to rise 0.5% in April.
Construction spending reveals how much the government and private companies spend on projects, from housing to highways. The more the U.S. spends on construction, the higher the level of economic activity.
The government revised spending on construction in April to 0.4% from an initial read of a 1.2% increase.
Over the past year, construction spending was up 2.4%.
In terms of residential real estate, private residential construction fell 11.6% in May as compared to the previous year. It was up 2.2% as compared to April.
Single-family construction rose on a month-over-month basis in May by 1.7%, but fell sharply by 25% from last year.
Multifamily construction fell by 0.1% in May, but increased by 20.4% from last year.
Spending on public residential construction rose by 0.1% from last month, and 12.3% from last year. The U.S. increased spending on public residential construction by 1.1% from last month, and 8.3% over the last year.
The increase in spending May overall was “strong,” Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets, wrote in a note.
“In particular, new residential activity jumped by 2.2%, reversing the cumulative declines recorded over the three prior months,” he added. “This lines up with the big increase in housing starts in May and adds to the growing body of evidence that the housing sector is bottoming out.”
Stocks
DJIA,
SPX,
were down in early trading on Monday. The 10-year Treasury note
TMUBMUSD10Y,
was around 3.8%.
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