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Tag: Brian Jacobsen

  • Stocks climb on hopes for lower interest rates as Dow rallies 660 points

    NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. stock market climbed again Tuesday on hopes for a coming cut to interest rates.

    The S&P 500 rose 0.9% after breaking out of a morning lull and is back within 1.8% of its all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 664 points, or 1.4%, and the Nasdaq composite gained 0.7%.

    Stocks got a boost from easing yields in the bond market. Lower interest rates can cover up many sins in financial markets, including prices going too high, and hopes are strong that the Federal Reserve will cut its main interest rate at its next meeting to juice the economy further.

    A raft of mixed economic data on Tuesday left traders betting on a nearly 83% probability that the Fed will cut in December, according to data from CME Group. That’s roughly the same as a day before and up sharply from the coin flip’s chance that they saw just a week ago.

    One of Tuesday’s reports said that shoppers bought less at U.S. retailers in September than economists expected. Another said confidence among U.S. consumers worsened by more in November than expected, a second signal that the economy could potentially use the help of lower interest rates.

    Easier rates can boost the economy by encouraging households and companies to borrow more and investors to pay higher prices for investments than they would otherwise.

    A third report, meanwhile, said inflation at the wholesale level was a touch worse in September than economists expected, but a closely tracked underlying trend was slightly better. That’s important because lower interest rates can make inflation worse, and high inflation is the main deterrent that could keep the Fed from cutting rates.

    After taking all the data together, economists suggested the Fed and its chair, Jerome Powell, could be leaning toward cutting rates on Dec. 10. The Fed has already cut rates twice this year in hopes of shoring up the slowing job market.

    “Taking a pause on rate cuts would probably do more damage to sentiment than a cut would help,” according to Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, who also said “Powell doesn’t need to be the Grinch that stole Christmas.”

    Easier interest rates can give particularly big boosts to smaller companies, because many of them need to borrow to grow. The Russell 2000 index of the smallest U.S. stocks jumped 2.1% to lead the market.

    Elsewhere on Wall Street, several retailers leaped after delivering stronger profits for the summer than analysts expected.

    Abercrombie & Fitch soared 37.5% after the apparel seller reported a better profit than expected. It also raised the bottom end of its forecasted range for revenue and profit over the full year.

    Kohl’s surged 42.5% after reporting a profit for the latest quarter, when analysts were expecting a loss. Best Buy rose 5.3% after boosting its profit forecast for the full year following a better-than-expected third quarter, citing strength across computing, gaming and mobile phones.

    Dick’s Sporting Goods erased an early drop of 4% to add 0.2%. It raised its forecast for results at its Dick’s stores, though its purchase of Foot Locker is requiring some work. Executive Chairman Ed Stack said the company is “cleaning out the garage” at Foot Locker by clearing inventory, closing poorly performing stores and making other moves.

    Swings also continued in the artificial-intelligence industry, which has battled concerns that too many dollars are pouring into data centers and may not produce the revolution of bigger profits and productivity that proponents are predicting.

    Alphabet rose another 1.5%, continuing a strong run on excitement about its recently released Gemini AI model. Chinese giant Alibaba, meanwhile, saw its stock that trades in the United States fall 2.3% after losing an early gain. It reported stronger revenue than analysts expected for the latest quarter thanks in part to the AI boom, but its overall profit fell short of forecasts.

    Some chip companies dropped sharply following a report from The Information that Meta Platforms is in talks to spend billions of dollars on AI chips from Alphabet instead of them. Nvidia sank 2.6% and Advanced Micro Devices dropped 4.1%.

    All told, the S&P 500 rose 60.76 points to 6,765.88. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 664.18 to 47,112.45, and the Nasdaq composite gained 153.59 to 23,025.59.

    In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.00% from 4.04% late Monday.

    In stock markets abroad, indexes rose across Europe and Asia. Germany’s DAX returned 1%, and stocks in Shanghai climbed 0.9% for two of the world’s bigger moves.

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    AP Business Writer Elaine Kurtenbach contributed.

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  • Wall Street scrambles back from a big morning loss as Nvidia and bitcoin swing

    NEW YORK (AP) — An early swoon shook the U.S. stock market on Friday, as Nvidia, bitcoin, gold and other high flyers swung on an increasingly antsy Wall Street, but it quickly calmed.

    After starting the day with a sharp drop of 1.3%, the S&P 500 erased all of it and then meandered up and down before finishing with a slight dip of 0.1%. The Nasdaq composite flipped to a gain of 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average trimmed its loss to 309 points, or 0.7%, after earlier being down nearly 600.

    Options traders Steven Rodriguez, left, and Scott Frenzy work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, Nov. 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

    AI stocks were again at the center of the action, a day after dragging Wall Street to one of its worst drops since its springtime sell-off. Nvidia, which has become the poster child of the frenzy around artificial-intelligence technology, began the day with a loss of 3.4%. It then stormed back to a rise of 1.8% and yanked the market in its wake.

    Critics have been warning that the U.S. stock market could be primed for a drop because of how high prices have shot since April, leaving them looking too expensive. They pointed in particular to stocks swept up in the AI mania. Nvidia’s stock has more than doubled in four of the last five years, for example, and the chip company is still up more than 40% for this year so far.

    AP AUDIO: Wall Street erases a big early loss as Nvidia and bitcoin swing

    Nvidia and other Big Tech companies are lifting Wall Street. We hear more from AP business correspondent Seth Sutel.

    Even with sharp swings for the S&P 500 the last couple of weeks, the index that dictates the movements for many 401(k) accounts remains within 2.3% of its record set late last month.

    “Occasional market drops are the price of the ticket for the ride,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.

    Outside of tech, Walmart edged down 0.1% after saying CEO Doug McMillon will retire in January in a surprise move. It had been down as much as 3.6% in the morning. McMillon helped the retailer embrace technology more.

    All told, the S&P 500 fell 3.38 points to 6,734.11. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 309.74 to 47,147.48, and the Nasdaq composite rose 30.23 to 22,900.59.

    One way companies can tamp down criticism about too-high stock prices is to deliver solid growth in profits. That’s raising the stakes for Nvidia’s profit report coming Wednesday, when it will say how much it earned during the summer.

    Options trader Anthony Spina works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, Nov. 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

    Options trader Anthony Spina works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, Nov. 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

    If it falls short of analysts’ expectations, more drops could be on the way. That would have a big effect on the market because Nvidia has grown to become Wall Street’s largest stock by value. That gives Nvidia’s stock movements a bigger effect on the S&P 500 than any other’s, and it can almost single-handedly steer the index’s direction on any given day.

    Another way for stock prices broadly to look less expensive is if interest rates fall. That’s because bonds paying less in interest can make investors willing to pay higher prices for stocks and other kinds of investments.

    Treasury yields had been falling for most of this year on expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut its main interest rate several times. And the Fed has indeed cut twice already in hopes of shoring up the slowing job market.

    But questions are rising about whether a third cut will actually come after the Fed’s next meeting in December, something that traders had earlier seen as very likely. The downside of lower interest rates is that they can make inflation worse, and inflation has stubbornly remained above the Fed’s 2% target.

    Fed officials have pointed to the U.S. government’s shutdown, which delayed the release of updates on the job market and other signals about the economy. With less information and less certainty about how things are going, some Fed officials have suggested it may be better just to wait in December to get more clarity.

    In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.14% from 4.11% late Thursday.

    Specialist Anthony Matesic works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, Nov. 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

    Specialist Anthony Matesic works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Friday, Nov. 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

    Bitcoin is one of the investments that can get a boost from lower interest rates. It fell below $95,000, back to where it was in May. It had been near $125,000 only in October.

    The price of gold, meanwhile, sank 2.4%. It shot to records throughout the year as investors looked for something that could protect from high inflation and big debt loads built by the U.S. and other governments worldwide. But interest rates staying higher can hurt gold, which pays its investors nothing in interest or dividends.

    In stock markets abroad, indexes dropped across Europe and Asia. South Korea’s Kospi fell 3.8% for one of the world’s largest losses.

    London’s FTSE 100 sank 1.1% amid speculation the U.K. government may ditch plans to raise income taxes, which would have helped chip away at its debt.

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    AP Writer Teresa Cerojano contributed.

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  • Wall Street soars on hopes for lower interest rates as the Dow surges 846 points to a record

    NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street rallied to its best day in months on Friday after the head of the Federal Reserve hinted that cuts to interest rates may be on the way, along with the kick they can give the economy and investment prices.

    The S&P 500 leaped 1.5% for its first gain in six days and finished just shy of its all-time high set last week.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 846 points, or 1.9%, to its own record after topping its prior high from December. The Nasdaq composite jumped 1.9%.

    “Ka-Powell” is how Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, described the reaction to Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “The Fed isn’t going to be the party-pooper.”

    The hope among investors had been that Powell would hint that the Fed’s first cut to interest rates of the year may be imminent. Wall Street loves lower rates because they can goose the economy, even if they risk worsening inflation at the same time.

    President Donald Trump has angrily been calling for lower rates, often insulting Powell while doing so. And a surprisingly weak report on job growth this month pushed many on Wall Street to assume cuts may come as soon as the Fed’s next meeting in September.

    Powell encouraged them on Friday after saying he’s seen risks rise for the job market. The Fed’s two jobs are to keep the job market healthy and to keep a lid on inflation, and it often has to prioritize one over the other because it has just one tool to fix either.

    But Powell also would not commit to any kind of timing. He said the job market looks OK at the moment, even if “it is a curious kind of balance” where fewer new workers are chasing after fewer new jobs. Inflation, meanwhile, still has the potential to push higher because of Trump’s tariffs.

    In sum, Powell said that “the stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance.”

    Treasury yields tumbled in the bond market as bets built that the Fed would cut its main interest rate in September. Traders see an 83% chance of that, up from 75% a day earlier, according to data from CME Group.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.25% from 4.33% late Thursday. The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for Fed action, sank to 3.69% from 3.79% in a notable move for the bond market.

    On Wall Street, stocks of smaller companies led the way. They can benefit more from lower interest rates because of their need to borrow money to grow. The smaller stocks in the Russell 2000 index surged 3.9% for its best day since April and more than doubled the S&P 500’s rally.

    Homebuilders jumped on hopes that easier interest rates could encourage more people to buy homes. Lennar, PulteGroup and D.R. Horton all rose more than 5%.

    Travel companies, meanwhile, climbed amid hopes that easier interest rates could help U.S. households spend more. Norwegian Cruise Line rallied 7.2%, Delta Air Lines flew 6.7% higher and Caesars Entertainment rose 7%.

    Shares of Nio, a Chinese electric-vehicle maker, that trade in the United States leaped 14.4% after it began pre-sales of its flagship premium SUV model, the ES8.

    Intel climbed 5.5% after Trump said the chip company has agreed to give the U.S. government a 10% stake in its business.

    Nvidia rose 1.7% to trim its loss for the week. The company, whose chips are powering much of the world’s move in to artificial-intelligence technology, had seen its stock struggle recently amid criticism that it and other AI superstars shot too high, too fast and became too expensive.

    Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said Friday that the company is discussing a potential new computer chip designed for China with the Trump administration. The chips are graphics processing units, or GPUs, a type of device used to build and update a range of AI systems. But they are less powerful than Nvidia’s top semiconductors today, which cannot be sold to China due to U.S. national security restrictions.

    All told, the S&P 500 jumped 96.74 points to 6,466.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average leaped 846.24 to 45,631.74, and the Nasdaq composite rallied 396.22 to 21,496.53.

    In stock markets abroad, Germany’s DAX returned 0.3% after government data showed that its economy shrank by 0.3% in the second quarter compared with the previous three-month period.

    Indexes rose across much of Asia, with stocks climbing 1.4% in Shanghai and 0.9% in South Korea.

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    AP Writers Teresa Cerojano and Matt Ott contributed.

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  • US stocks rally to records on hopes for cuts to interest rates

    NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. stock market rallied to records on Tuesday after data suggested inflation across the country was a touch better last month than economists expected.

    The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to top its all-time high set two weeks ago. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 483 points, or 1.1%, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 1.4% to set its own record.

    Stocks got a lift from hopes that the better-than-expected inflation report will give the Federal Reserve leeway to cut interest rates at its next meeting in September.

    Lower rates would give a boost to investment prices and to the economy by making it cheaper for U.S. households and businesses to borrow to buy houses, cars or equipment. President Donald Trump has angrily been calling for cuts to help the economy, often insulting the Fed’s chair personally while doing so.

    AP AUDIO: Wall Street rises toward records on hopes for lower interest rates

    AP business correspondent Seth Sutel reports markets are leaning higher.

    But the Fed has been hesitant because of the possibility that Trump’s tariffs could make inflation much worse. Lowering rates would give inflation more fuel, potentially adding oxygen to a growing fire. That’s why Fed officials have said they wanted to see more data come in about inflation before moving.

    Tuesday’s report said U.S. consumers paid prices for groceries, gasoline and other costs of living that were overall 2.7% higher in July than a year earlier. That’s the same inflation rate as June’s, and it was below the 2.8% that economists expected.

    The report pushed traders on Wall Street to increase bets that the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time this year in September. They’re betting on a 94% chance of that, up from nearly 86% a day earlier, according to data from CME Group.

    The Fed will receive one more report on inflation, as well as one more on the U.S. job market, before its next meeting, which ends Sept. 17. The most recent jobs report was a stunner, coming in much weaker than economists expected.

    Some economists warn that more twists and turns in upcoming data could make the Fed’s upcoming decisions not so easy. Its twin goals are to get inflation to 2% while keeping the job market healthy. Helping one with interest rates, though, often means hurting the other.

    Even Tuesday’s better-than-expected inflation report had some discouraging undertones. An underlying measure of inflation, which economists say does a better job of predicting where inflation may be heading, hit its highest point since early this year, noted Gary Schlossberg, market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. That helped cause some up-and-down swings for Treasury yields in the bond market.

    “Eventually, tariffs can show up in varying degrees in consumer prices, but these one-off price increases don’t happen all at once,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management. “That will confound the Fed and economic commentators for months to come.”

    Other central banks around the world have been lowering interest rates, and Australia’s on Tuesday cut for the third time this year.

    On Wall Street, Intel’s stock rose 5.6% after Trump said its CEO has an “amazing story,” less than a week after he had demanded Lip-Bu Tan’s resignation.

    Circle Internet Group, the company behind the popular USDC cryptocurrency that tracks the U.S. dollar, climbed 1.3% despite reporting a larger loss for the latest quarter than analysts expected. It said its total revenue and reserve income grew 53% in its first quarter as a publicly traded company, which topped forecasts.

    On the losing side of Wall Street was Celanese, which sank 13.1% even though the chemical company delivered a better profit than expected. It said that customers in most of its markets continue to be challenged, and CEO Scott Richardson said that “the demand environment does not seem to be improving.”

    Cardinal Health dropped 7.2% despite likewise reporting a stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Its revenue fell short of forecasts, and analysts said the market’s expectations were particularly high for the company after its stock had already soared 33.3% for the year coming into the day.

    Critics say the broad U.S. stock market is looking expensive after its surge from a bottom in April. That’s putting pressure on companies to deliver continued growth in profit.

    All told, the S&P 500 rose 72.31 points to 6,445.76. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 483.52 to 44,458.61, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 296.50 to 21,681.90.

    In stock markets abroad, indexes edged up in China after Trump signed an executive order late Monday that delayed hefty tariffs on the world’s second-largest economy by 90 days. The move was widely expected, and the hope is that it will clear the way for a possible deal to avert a dangerous trade war between the United States and China.

    Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 2.1%, and South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.5% for two of the world’s bigger moves.

    In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.28% from 4.27% late Monday.

    The yield on the two-year Treasury, which more closely tracks expectations for the Fed, fell to 3.73% from 3.76%.

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    AP Business Writers Yuri Kageyama and Matt Ott contributed.

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