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Tag: Brent crude

  • Pump prices could rise after US, EU hit Russian oil companies with new sanctions and oil spikes

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    Oil prices spiked Thursday after the U.S. announced massive new sanctions on Russia’s oil industry in an attempt to get Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table and end Moscow’s brutal war on Ukraine.U.S. benchmark crude jumped 6%, to $62 per barrel midday Thursday and analysts say if the situation remains static, U.S. consumers will soon be paying more at the pump.Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, said while it was difficult to predict with certainty because of the number of moving parts, consumers will likely see a bump in prices as early as next week, if not sooner.“We’ll probably start to see motorists be impacted by the sanctions at the pump in the next couple days and it might take five days for that to be fully passed along,” De Haan said, adding that the full impact also depends on whether the Russian or U.S. positions change.“Russia will feel pressure to come to the table in light of the new developments or President Trump may react when he sees oil prices rising to levels that become uncomfortable, so I don’t think this is going to be very long lasting,” De Haan said.Oil prices have been relatively low for the past few years and last week the cost for barrel of U.S. benchmark crude fell below $57, its lowest level since early 2021. The price for a barrel of U.S. benchmark crude did rise near $79 a barrel early this year, just before President Donald Trump took office, a price not necessarily considered outrageously elevated by most analysts.The broad, extended decline in oil prices pushed the average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. last week under $3 for the first time since December of last year, according to GasBuddy.For much of 2025, inflation has been held mostly in check, partly due to cheaper prices at the pump. However, that could change quickly as higher energy costs have a downstream effect on prices for virtually all products and services across industries.“The impact to a lot of Americans is that products derived from crude, gasoline, diesel and jet fuel are all likely to see price increases,” De Haan said.The main reason oil and gas have stabilized at lower levels this year is that the group of countries that are part of the OPEC+ alliance of oil-exporting countries have continued to boost production. Earlier this month, OPEC+ leaders announced they would raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, the same amount announced for October. The group has been raising output slightly in a series of boosts all year after announcing cuts in 2023 and 2024.Russia is the leading non-OPEC member in the 22-country alliance. The group’s next meeting is scheduled for Nov. 2.The sanctions against Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil follows calls from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as well as bipartisan pressure on Trump to hit Russia with harder sanctions on its oil industry, the economic engine that has allowed Russia to continue to execute the grinding conflict even as it finds itself largely internationally isolated. The European Union on Thursday announced its own measures targeting Russian oil and gas.The price for Brent crude, the international standard, rose $3.57 on Thursday to $66.15 per barrel.

    Oil prices spiked Thursday after the U.S. announced massive new sanctions on Russia’s oil industry in an attempt to get Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table and end Moscow’s brutal war on Ukraine.

    U.S. benchmark crude jumped 6%, to $62 per barrel midday Thursday and analysts say if the situation remains static, U.S. consumers will soon be paying more at the pump.

    Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, said while it was difficult to predict with certainty because of the number of moving parts, consumers will likely see a bump in prices as early as next week, if not sooner.

    “We’ll probably start to see motorists be impacted by the sanctions at the pump in the next couple days and it might take five days for that to be fully passed along,” De Haan said, adding that the full impact also depends on whether the Russian or U.S. positions change.

    “Russia will feel pressure to come to the table in light of the new developments or President Trump may react when he sees oil prices rising to levels that become uncomfortable, so I don’t think this is going to be very long lasting,” De Haan said.

    Oil prices have been relatively low for the past few years and last week the cost for barrel of U.S. benchmark crude fell below $57, its lowest level since early 2021. The price for a barrel of U.S. benchmark crude did rise near $79 a barrel early this year, just before President Donald Trump took office, a price not necessarily considered outrageously elevated by most analysts.

    The broad, extended decline in oil prices pushed the average price for a gallon of gas in the U.S. last week under $3 for the first time since December of last year, according to GasBuddy.

    For much of 2025, inflation has been held mostly in check, partly due to cheaper prices at the pump. However, that could change quickly as higher energy costs have a downstream effect on prices for virtually all products and services across industries.

    “The impact to a lot of Americans is that products derived from crude, gasoline, diesel and jet fuel are all likely to see price increases,” De Haan said.

    The main reason oil and gas have stabilized at lower levels this year is that the group of countries that are part of the OPEC+ alliance of oil-exporting countries have continued to boost production. Earlier this month, OPEC+ leaders announced they would raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, the same amount announced for October. The group has been raising output slightly in a series of boosts all year after announcing cuts in 2023 and 2024.

    Russia is the leading non-OPEC member in the 22-country alliance. The group’s next meeting is scheduled for Nov. 2.

    The sanctions against Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil follows calls from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as well as bipartisan pressure on Trump to hit Russia with harder sanctions on its oil industry, the economic engine that has allowed Russia to continue to execute the grinding conflict even as it finds itself largely internationally isolated. The European Union on Thursday announced its own measures targeting Russian oil and gas.

    The price for Brent crude, the international standard, rose $3.57 on Thursday to $66.15 per barrel.

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  • Standard Chartered Bucks Bearish Trend, Forecasts Oil Price Gains in 2026

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    We are in the final innings of the third quarter, and energy markets remain tepid amid bearish sentiment. Brent crude for November delivery was trading at $69.45 per barrel at 8.45 am ET on Friday, more than $10/bbl below the current year’s peak at ~81/bbl, while WTI crude was changing hands at $65.05 per barrel compared to the January peak of $78.71 per barrel. Oil prices have mostly traded ~15/bbl lower in 2025 compared to the previous year, primarily due to oversupply fears due to OPEC+ accelerating the unwinding of production cuts, coupled with sluggish global economic growth and heightened trade tensions that suppressed oil demand, leading to ample global supply outweighing demand. Increased output from non-OPEC+ countries also contributed to a build-up of oil inventories. Lately, Wall Street has been warning that oil markets could soon face a surplus, putting more pressure on already depressed oil prices. To wit, Goldman Sachs has predicted that oil markets could be oversupplied by 1.9 million b/d in 2026 amid OPEC+ unwinding production cuts and production in the Americas rising. Wall Street now sees oil prices sinking to the $50s per barrel next year, further compounding this year’s decline.

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    In sharp contrast, commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have predicted that oil prices will move higher in the coming year driven by robust demand and a raft of economic stimulus measures.

    StanChart notes that U.S. supply has hit an all-time high in the current year, but is predicting that producers will be forced to cut output due to prevailing low oil prices. On the demand side, expectations of weaker global demand in the final quarter of the year, driven by trade wars and tariffs, are likely to trigger a raft of economic stimulus in the form of rate cuts in the United States and potential for China to respond with a package of measures. Further, Ukraine’s targeted attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have forced Russia to cut refinery runs and ramp up crude exports. According to StanChart, vessel-tracking data suggests that Russia’s seaborne crude exports jumped to a 16-month high at 3.62 million barrels per day (mb/d) in August. The analysts note that Ukrainian attacks have also focused on both pipeline pumping stations and export terminals, which would pressure crude loadings further if they become significant enough to halt flows for extended periods. Meanwhile, an escalation in the unfolding tensions between Europe and Russia is likely to increase the risk premium for crude oil and natural gas.

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  • Oil Advances as Iran Warship in Red Sea Ratchets Tensions Higher

    Oil Advances as Iran Warship in Red Sea Ratchets Tensions Higher

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    (Bloomberg) — Oil rose in New Year trading after Iran sent a warship into the Red Sea, escalating Middle East tensions, and as the outlook for Chinese crude demand brightened.

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    Brent crude climbed more than 2% to near $79. The deployment of an Iranian warship comes after the US Navy said it was fired upon when responding to a distress call from a vessel in the Red Sea, the latest flashpoint on the key maritime corridor over the past few weeks. Defense and shipping stocks were also trading higher on Tuesday.

    Attacks on merchant shipping in the region have led to diversions of everything from container ships to gas carriers. The most recent impact on for oil came as two crude tankers diverted away from loading in Sudan, though one was replaced by a different vessel. Still, even as some companies and shipowners stay away, the wider impact on supply has been contained for now.

    Geopolitics threatens to inject fresh impetus into an oil market that last year fell for the first time since 2020. As 2024 gets underway, there’s been close focus on supply as high output from the US and other producers outside of OPEC and its allies counters the cartel’s output curbs.

    A bumper crude import quota from China, the world’s largest buyer, added to oil’s momentum. Private refiners and traders received an allocation for crude purchasing that nearly matched the one they received for the entire of last year, potentially boosting the outlook for the country’s consumption.

    “The latest events in the Red Sea, positive sentiment in European equity markets and the new Chinese import quotas are likely pushing crude higher,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Group AG.

    The latest cuts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will take effect this quarter, which could then be extended further. Traders have generally been wary of the Nov. 30 pledge from OPEC+ to slash production further, remaining skeptical of its implementation.

    A Houthi delegation met with officials in Tehran after the US response to the attack on a Danish-owned container ship. AP Moller-Maersk A/S has again suspended all Red Sea transit to assess the situation in the vital waterway.

    To get Bloomberg’s Energy Daily newsletter into your inbox, click here.

    –With assistance from Jonas Ekblom.

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    ©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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  • Oil at $200 a Barrel? Some Traders Are Betting on It.

    Oil at $200 a Barrel? Some Traders Are Betting on It.

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    Oil hasn’t yet climbed back to $100 per barrel, but options traders are increasingly setting their sights on another target—$200. The most actively traded


    Brent crude


    options contract on Thursday was an option to buy Brent at $200 in March 2023.

    About half of the contracts to buy oil at that price appeared to be placed by one buyer who spent about $810,000 on the options, according to Robert Yawger, the director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities USA. But that buyer isn’t the only person making a bet that oil prices will hit $200, along with other bullish bets on where oil goes in 2023. “There have been people dipping their toes into those higher [options strike prices] over the last couple of days,” Yawger said.

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