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  • Federal Reserve unveils toned-down banking regulations in victory for Wall Street

    Federal Reserve unveils toned-down banking regulations in victory for Wall Street

    A top Federal Reserve official on Tuesday unveiled changes to a proposed set of U.S. banking regulations that roughly cuts in half the extra capital that the largest institutions will be forced to hold.

    Introduced in July 2023, the regulatory overhaul known as the Basel Endgame would have boosted capital requirements for the world’s largest banks by roughly 19%.

    Instead, officials at the Fed, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. have agreed to resubmit the massive proposal with a more modest 9% increase to big bank capital, according to prepared remarks from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr.

    The change comes after banks, business groups, lawmakers and others weighed in on the possible impact of the original proposal, Barr told an audience at the Brookings Institution.

    “This process has led us to conclude that broad and material changes to the proposals are warranted,” Barr said in the remarks. “There are benefits and costs to increasing capital requirements. The changes we intend to make will bring these two important objectives into better balance.”

    The original proposal, a long-in-the-works response to the 2008 global financial crisis, sought to boost safety and tighten oversight of risky activities including lending and trading. But by raising the capital that banks are required to hold as a cushion against losses, the plan could’ve also made loans more expensive or harder to obtain, pushing more activity to nonbank providers, according to trade organizations.

    The earlier version brought howls of protest from industry executives including JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who helped lead the industry’s efforts to push back against the demands. Now, it looks like those efforts have paid off.

    But big banks aren’t the only ones to benefit. Regional banks with between $100 billion and $250 billion in assets are excluded from the latest proposal, except for a requirement that they recognize unrealized gains and losses on securities in their regulatory capital.

    That part will likely boost capital requirements by 3% to 4% over time, Barr said. It’s an apparent response to the failures last year of midsized banks caused by deposit runs tied to unrealized losses on bonds and loans amid sharply higher interest rates.

    Mortgages, retail loans

    Key parts of the proposal that apply to big banks bring several measures of risk more in line with international standards, while the original draft was more onerous for things such as mortgages and retail loans, Barr said.

    It also cuts the risk weighting for tax credit equity funding structures, often used to finance green energy projects; tempers a surcharge proposed for firms with a history of operational failures; and recognizes the relatively lower-risk nature of investment management operations.

    Barr said he will push to resubmit the proposed Basel Endgame regulations, as well as a separate set of capital surcharge rules for the biggest global institutions, which starts anew a public review process that has already taken longer than a year.

    That means it won’t be finalized until well after the November election, which creates the risk that if Republican candidate Donald Trump wins, the rules could be further weakened or never implemented, a situation that some regulators and lawmakers hoped to avoid.

    It’s unclear if the changes appease the industry and their constituents; banks and their trade groups have threatened to litigate to prevent the original draft’s implementation.

    “The journey to improve capital requirements since the Global Financial Crisis has been a long one, and Basel III Endgame is an important element of this effort,” Barr said. “The broad and material changes to both proposals that I’ve outlined today would better balance the benefits and costs of capital.”

    Reaction to Barr’s proposal was swift and predictable; Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., called it a gift to Wall Street.

    “The revised bank capital standards are a Wall Street giveaway, increasing the risk of a future financial crisis and keeping taxpayers on the hook for bailouts,” Warren said in an emailed statement. “After years of needless delay, rather than bolster the security of the financial system, the Fed caved to the lobbying of big bank executives.”

    The American Bankers Association, a trade group, said it welcomed Barr’s announcement but stopped short of giving its approval to the latest version of the regulation.

    “We will carefully review this new proposal with our members, recognizing that America’s banks are already well-capitalized and … any increase in capital requirements will still carry a cost for the economy and must be appropriately tailored,” said ABA President Rob Nichols.

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  • Bitcoin rebounds from its worst week in more than a year, jumping above $57,000

    Bitcoin rebounds from its worst week in more than a year, jumping above $57,000

    Bitcoin jumped Monday evening and topped $57,000 after Wall Street’s rebound from its worst week of the year.

    The price of the flagship cryptocurrency was last higher by 5.6% at $57,4449.00, according to Coin Metrics. Last week, bitcoin tumbled 9% for its worst weekly performance since August 2023. 

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    Bitcoin performance in the past five days

    In regular trading, Coinbase and MicroStrategy climbed 5.2% and 9.2%, respectively, on Monday. Those stocks rose as the S&P 500 broke a four-day losing streak and the Nasdaq Composite gained more than 1%. The three major averages last week posted their worst weekly performance in 2024.

    Bitcoin has been trading range bound for most of the year. Last week, it briefly fell below its floor of about $55,000. Analysts have warned that cryptocurrency lacks major catalysts at the moment and that in their absence, prices are likely to be sensitive to macro factors and continue to consolidate.

    Seasonality is also a factor. For bitcoin, similar to other risk assets, September is a historically weak month.

    “For bitcoin to experience some upside in the upcoming week, it is essential for the U.S. equity markets to find some stability or positive momentum, potentially leading to a decrease in [crypto] ETF outflows,” Bitfinex analysts said in a note Monday. “This relief in the equity markets could help alleviate selling pressure on bitcoin, providing a conducive environment for a recovery.”

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  • Cities need aggressive leadership to tackle failing downtown real estate, says Rick Caruso

    Cities need aggressive leadership to tackle failing downtown real estate, says Rick Caruso

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    Rick Caruso, Caruso founder and executive chairman, joins CNBC’s ‘Money Movers’ to discuss outlooks on real estate, the election, and more.

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  • Here are the three most important things to watch in the market this week

    Here are the three most important things to watch in the market this week

    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on September 05, 2024 in New York City.

    Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images

    It was a rough start to the historically weak month of September on Wall Street. Economic growth concerns and investor trepidation ahead of Tuesday’s presidential debate and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later in the month sank the market.

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  • Small nuclear reactors could power the future — the challenge is building the first one in the U.S.

    Small nuclear reactors could power the future — the challenge is building the first one in the U.S.

    Nuclear plants could become smaller, simpler and easier to build in the future, potentially revolutionizing a power source that is increasingly viewed as critical to the transition away from fossil fuels.

    New designs called small modular reactors, or SMR in shorthand, promise to speed deployment of new plants as demand for clean electricity is rising from artificial intelligence, manufacturing and electric vehicles.

    At the same time, utilities across the country are retiring coal plants as part of the energy transition, raising worries about a looming electricity supply gap. Nuclear power is viewed as a potential solution because it is the most reliable power source available and does not emit carbon dioxide.

    Building large plants is very costly and time-consuming. In Georgia, Southern Co. built the first new nuclear reactors in decades, but the project finished seven years behind schedule at a cost of more than $30 billion.

    Small modular reactors, with a power capacity of 300 megawatts or less, are about a third the size of the average reactors in the current U.S. fleet. The goal is to build them in a process similar to an assembly line, with plants rolling out of factories in just a handful of pieces that are then put together at the site.

    “They’re a smaller bite from a capital perspective,” Doug True, chief nuclear officer at the Nuclear Energy Institute, told CNBC. “They’re a perfect fit for things like replacing a retired coal plant, because the size of coal plants typically is more than that of the small modular reactor design space.”

    The challenge is getting the first small modular reactor built in the U.S.

    Only three SMRs are operational in the world, according to the Nuclear Energy Agency. Two are in China and Russia, the central geopolitical adversaries of the U.S. A test reactor is also operational in Japan.

    Executives in the nuclear industry generally agree that small modular reactors won’t reach a commercial stage until the 2030s. An ambitious effort by NuScale to deploy SMRs at a site in Idaho was canceled last year, as the project’s price tag ballooned from $5 billion to $9 billion due to inflation and high interest rates.

    Eric Carr, president of nuclear operations at Dominion Energy, said the biggest challenge to commercializing the technology right now is managing the costs of a first-of-a-kind project.

    “Nobody exactly wants to be first, but somebody has to be,” Carr told CNBC. “Once it gets going, it’s going to be a great, reliable source of energy for the entire nation’s grid.”

    Dominion Energy

    Dominion is currently evaluating whether it makes sense to build a small modular reactor at its North Anna nuclear station in Louisa County, Virginia, northwest of Richmond. The utility’s service area includes the largest data center market in the world in Loudoun County, less than 100 miles north of the plant.

    Electricity demand from these computer server warehouses is expected to surge because artificial intelligence consumes more energy. In the case of Dominion, the peak power demand from data centers is forecast to more than double to 6.4 gigawatts by 2030 and quadruple to 13.4 gigawatts in 2038.

    Dominion asked SMR technology companies in July to submit proposals evaluating the feasibility of developing a small reactor at North Anna. Carr said interest in the proposal process has been high. The utility is currently working with vendors to make sure they understand Dominion’s needs and to figure out which technology might be suitable, Carr said.

    “For our specific case at Dominion, we have a duty to our shareholders to do the right thing, and we also have a duty to our customers to make sure we can meet the demand of this growth, but we have to balance both of those interests,” Carr said. Though Dominion has not committed to building an SMR yet, one planning scenario envisages developing six such reactors starting in 2034.

    The tech companies driving the data center boom have also shown a growing interest in nuclear due to its reliability and role in fighting climate change. Carr said Dominion is having discussions with some customers on possibly collaborating to move SMRs closer to reality.

    “We’re having some discussions with the technology vendors as well as the large customers that are coming in and saying, ‘What could this look like if we all work together,’” Carr said.

    Holtec International

    Holtec International, a privately held nuclear technology company, is trying to find a path forward for the industry on two fronts. The company is in the process of restarting the Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan, which would be the first time a plant that ceased operations has come back online.

    Holtec also plans to install two small reactors at Palisades in the early 2030s, which would nearly double the power capacity of the plant. Kelly Trice, president of Holtec, said, without disclosing names, that at least six utilities are interested in participating in restarting Palisades and constructing the small reactors.

    How the massive power draw of generative AI is overtaxing our grid

    “If they participate, they can get all of those painful lessons learned without having to pay for them,” Trice told CNBC. “And then, when the plant is built at their site, it is the second one or the third one or the fourth — which usually becomes a lot less expensive once you’ve learned all your lessons.”

    Once the first SMR has been constructed at Palisades, Holtec plans to build an order book to “continually manufacture the components to do this for whatever plant is needed,” Trice said.

    Holtec’s SMR design is a pressurized water-reactor, the same technology as most plants currently operating in the U.S. fleet. “But with some elegant safety features that don’t require human action, and as a result of that simpler to operate, fewer people required, easier to maintain,” Trice said.

    “And also reproducible. Our goal is for every SMR to essentially be the same,” he said.

    Constellation Energy

    The largest operator of nuclear plants in the U.S., Constellation Energy, is also exploring the possibility of building a small reactor at one of its facilities.

    The trend in the industry is to upgrade existing plants with small reactors in part because the communities are already open to nuclear. The necessary land, water, grid connection and security footprint are also already available, said Kathleen Barrón, chief strategy officer at Constellation.

    Barrón said the idea is to work with a customer that is interested in contracting at one of Constellation’s existing plants for power today, and then working with them to use the facility to “host an SMR to provide greater clean power to that customer in the future.”

    “This will only happen if there’s a supportive state policy akin to what states have done with offshore wind and there are customers that are interested in buying the offtake from those reactors,” Barrón said.

    For now, the energy transition will require an all-above approach with natural gas acting as a bridge toward cleaner energy as coal phases out — until the next technology comes online, Dominion’s Carr said.

    “SMR may very well be that next technology,” he said.

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  • 3 ways Wall Street’s largest banks are leveraging AI to increase profitability

    3 ways Wall Street’s largest banks are leveraging AI to increase profitability

    Pedestrians walk along Wall Street near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Tuesday, Aug. 27, 2024.

    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Big banks are jumping headfirst into the AI race.

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  • Nobel winner Joseph Stiglitz says Fed raised rates ‘too far, too fast’ — and now needs to cut big

    Nobel winner Joseph Stiglitz says Fed raised rates ‘too far, too fast’ — and now needs to cut big

    Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the Federal Reserve should deliver a half-point interest rate cut at its forthcoming meeting, accusing the U.S. central bank of going “too far, too fast” with monetary policy tightening and making the inflation problem worse.

    His comments come ahead of Friday’s pivotal release of U.S. jobs data, with investors closely monitoring the August nonfarm payrolls count for clues on the size of an expected rate cut this month. The jobs data is scheduled out at 8:30 a.m. ET.

    Strategists have typically said that the most likely outcome from the Fed’s Sept. 17-18 meeting is a 25-basis-point rate cut, although bets for a 50-basis-point reduction have increased in recent days.

    A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

    Stiglitz, who won the Nobel Prize in 2001 for his market analysis, joins the likes of JPMorgan’s chief U.S. economist in calling for a supersized rate cut this month.

    “I’ve been criticizing the Fed for going too far, too fast,” Stiglitz told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick on Friday at the annual Ambrosetti Forum held in Cernobbio, Italy.

    Stiglitz said it was “really important” for the Fed to have normalized interest rates, adding that it was a mistake for the U.S. central bank to have held the benchmark borrowing rate near zero for such a long period since 2008.

    “But then they went beyond that to where the interest rates have been, and I thought that put the economy at risk for very little benefit, probably actually worsening inflation, ironically, because if you looked more carefully at the sources of inflation, a big component was housing,” Stiglitz said.

    American economist Joseph Stiglitz Economy Nobel Prize in 2001 attends the Trento Economy Festival 2023 at Sociale Theater on May 27, 2023 in Trento, Italy.

    Roberto Serra – Iguana Press | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

    “If you think about, how do we deal with the problem of a housing shortage, which is increasing the price of inflation — do you think raising interest rates making it more difficult for real estate developers to build more houses, homeowners to buy more houses, is going to solve the housing shortage? No, it’s going in exactly the wrong way,” he continued.

    “So, I believe that they have contributed to the problem of inflation. Now, even though their models don’t work this way, and they’re not looking at things, I think, as deeply as they should, their models tell them [to] look at the weaknesses in the economy, and therefore we should be lowering interest rates.”

    The Fed’s benchmark borrowing rate is currently targeted in a range between 5.25%-5.5%.

    If he were serving as a Fed policymaker, Stiglitz said he would vote for a bigger rate cut at the central bank’s September meeting, “because I think they went too far, and it would actually help on the issue of inflation and on jobs.”

    Asked whether this meant he believed a 50-basis-point rate cut should be on the table regardless of the August nonfarm payrolls figure, Stiglitz replied: “Yes.”

    A spokesperson at the Federal Reserve declined to comment.

    Bets rising for a half-point reduction

    Market participants are firmly pricing in a rate cut at the Fed’s next policy-setting meeting, with bets for a half-point reduction increasing shortly after Wednesday’s release of the report on Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS.

    The data showed that U.S. job openings fell to their lowest level in in 3½ years in July, in what was seen as another sign of slack in the labor market.

    Traders are currently pricing in a roughly 59% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, with 41% pricing in a 50-basis-point rate reduction, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Bets for a 50-basis-point rate cut stood at 34% just over a week ago.

    A Fed rate cut of 50 basis points could be ‘very dangerous’ for markets, economist says

    Not everyone says a big interest rate cut is necessary this month.

    George Lagarias, chief economist at Forvis Mazars, said that, while no one can guarantee the scale of the Fed’s rate cut at its September meeting, he is “firmly” in the camp calling for a quarter-point reduction.

    “I don’t see the urgency for the 50 [basis point] cut,” Lagarias told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.

    “The 50 [basis point] cut might send a wrong message to markets and the economy. It might send a message of urgency, and, you know, that could be a self-fulfilling prophecy,” he continued.

    “So, it would be very dangerous if they went there without a specific reason. Unless you have an event, something that troubles markets, there is no reason for panic.”

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  • Rolls-Royce shares rebound 4.6% after engine issue grounds Cathay Pacific flights

    Rolls-Royce shares rebound 4.6% after engine issue grounds Cathay Pacific flights

    A Cathay Pacific Airbus A350 aircraft at Kingsford Smith Airport on August 18, 2021 in Sydney, Australia. Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd., is the flag carrier of Hong Kong with its main hub being at Hong Kong International Airport.

    James D. Morgan | Getty Images News | Getty Images

    Rolls-Royce shares opened higher Tuesday, making up some of the previous session’s losses after Cathay Pacific cancelled several flights upon discovering technical issues in aircraft utilizing the British manufacturer’s Trent XWB-97 engines.

    Rolls-Royce shares were 4.6% higher at 8:46 a.m. London time Tuesday, after falling 6.5% on Monday.

    Cathay Pacific on Tuesday announced it had identified an engine component failure in 15 of its Airbus A350 aircraft — a long-range, wide-body that uses Rolls-Royce engines. The issue was found following an engine component failure on a Zurich-bound flight operated by the carrier from its base in Hong Kong on Sept. 2. The plane did not complete its journey and returned to Hong Kong.

    Cathay Pacific shares dipped 0.6% Tuesday.

    The airline said three aircraft had already been successfully repaired, with the remaining aircraft expected to resume operations by Sept. 7.

    The issue led to the cancellation of nearly 40 flights on Monday. Long-haul flights are not expected to be affected going forward and customers will be offered alternative routes, Cathay Pacific said.

    Details on cancellations up to Sept. 7 will be released by 2 p.m. local time Wednesday, the company added.

    Rolls-Royce on Tuesday confirmed its Trent XWB-97 was used in the aircraft. Investors are sensitive to such problems given the engine issues at Pratt & Whitney which have caused significant delays to Airbus deliveries of some aircraft; and the long-running series of manufacturing problems at the U.S.’s Boeing.

    Rolls-Royce said that Hong Kong authorities had launched an investigation that restricted the company’s ability to comment, but noted that it was “committed to working closely with the airline, aircraft manufacturer and the relevant authorities to support their efforts.”

    It added it would keep other airlines that operate Trent XWB-97 engines “fully informed of any relevant developments as appropriate.”

    “While the news raises some concerns, our preliminary analysis is that the financial liability could be contained. Hence, our positive view of the equity story is unchanged,” Deutsche Bank analysts said Tuesday.

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  • The peak interest rate era is over. Here’s what investors are watching

    The peak interest rate era is over. Here’s what investors are watching

    A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Aug. 23, 2024.

    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Central banks around the world are set to kick off or continue interest rate cuts this fall, bringing an end to an era of historically high borrowing costs.

    In September, the U.S. Federal Reserve is all but guaranteed to join the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the People’s Bank of China, the Swiss National Bank, Sweden’s Riksbank, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Mexico and others in cutting key rates, which have been held at levels not seen since before the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008.

    Money markets had already fully priced in a rate cut from the Fed, but last week investors gained even more confidence in the path of easing ahead.

    At the annual Jackson Hole symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell not only said the “time has come for policy to adjust,” but that the central bank could now equally focus on doing “everything” it can to keep the labor market strong and continue progress on inflation.

    Current pricing suggests high expectations for three 25 basis point cuts by the Fed before the end of the year, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. That will keep the Fed roughly in-line with its peers, despite it moving later.

    The European Central Bank is seen cutting rates by 25 basis points at least three times in total this year; and the Bank of England by the same increment a total of three times, according to LSEG data. All three central banks are seen further continuing monetary easing at least in early 2025, even as stickiness in services inflation continues to trouble policymakers.

    For the global economy, that means a broadly lower-rate environment next year, along with significantly reduced pressures from inflation. In the U.S., a recent spike in recession fear has largely abated, and despite where there is weakness in big manufacturing-oriented economies such as Germany, the likes of the more services-focused U.K. are recording solid growth.

    What all that means for markets is less clear. European stocks, as measured on the regional Stoxx 600 index, rebounded in 2023 from a downturn in 2022 and gained nearly 10% in the year-to-date to reach an intraday record high on Friday. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 index is 17% higher so far in 2024.

    The VIX volatility index — which spiked amid the global equities downturn at the start of August — is back below average, Beat Wittmann, chairman and partner at Porta Advisors, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.

    “The market, in terms of price momentum, in terms of valuations, of sentiment, has pretty much recovered, and we are going into the seasonally weak September, October period here. So I would expect choppy markets driven by various factors, geopolitics, corporate earnings, bellwethers like from the AI sector,” Wittmann said.

    Choppiness will also be due to an “overdue consolidation correction” and some sector rotation occuring; but “the asset class of choice here very clearly for the rest of this year, and then especially for ’25 and beyond, is equities,” Wittmann added.

    Even if recent Fed commentary appears supportive for stocks, data from the U.S. jobs market — with the next key report due Sept. 6 — remains important to watch, Manpreet Gill, chief investment officer for Africa, Middle East and Europe at Standard Chartered, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Monday.

    August stocks slump was ‘a warning shot’ for global markets, Goldman Sachs says

    “Our baseline is still very much that a [U.S.] soft landing is achievable… It almost becomes a little bit more binary, because as long as we avoid that downside risk, equity earnings growth is still very supportive, and we’ve had sort of the positioning clean out in the recent pullback,” Gill said.

    “And I think rate cuts, or at least expectation of those, really was the last piece markets were looking for. So on balance, we think it’s a positive outcome,” Gill said, referring to the risk of U.S. economic data causing volatility in the coming months.

    Arnaud Girod, head of economics and cross asset strategy at Kepler Cheuvreux, told CNBC Tuesday that bonds have had a strong summer and equities have recovered; but that investors must now take a “leap of faith” on where the U.S. economy is heading and the pace of rate cuts.

    “I truly think that the more rate cuts you get, the likelihood that [these cuts are] coming with negative data and hence weakening earnings momentum is very high. So it’s difficult, I think, to be too optimistic,” he said.

    The stock market has meanwhile shown that there is an element to which it “couldn’t care less about interest rates,” Girod added, since Big Tech has rallied across the peak rate months — which conventional wisdom states should harm growth and technology stocks. That will keep events such as Nvidia earnings as the key ones to watch, according to Girod.

    FX focus on rates

    In currency markets, attention will remain on the interplay between inflation, rate expectations and economic growth, Jane Foley, head of foreign exchange strategy at Rabobank, told CNBC by email.

    If the euro rises significantly against the dollar, “the disinflationary implication may have some impact on market expectations regarding the timing of the ECB rate cuts,” she said.

    Stateside, Foley continued, “the result of the U.S. election will have implications for the Fed. If Trump wins, he could use an executive order to increase tariffs fairly quickly which would spur inflation risk and could cut the Fed’s easing cycle short.”

    Rabobank currently sees four Fed rate cuts between September and January and then a hold for the rest of 2025, providing the U.S. dollar with the potential to strengthen into the spring.

     “The BOE’s hand will likely remain constrained by services sector inflation, which is a function of wage inflation. This could limit the pace of BOE rate cuts to once a quarter,” Foley added.

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  • The CMBS market is a disaster right now, says United Capital Markets CEO John Devaney

    The CMBS market is a disaster right now, says United Capital Markets CEO John Devaney

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    John Devaney, United Capital Markets founder and CEO, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the state of the commercial backed mortgage securities (CMBS) market, the commercial real estate market, the troubles facing regional banks, and more.

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  • UBS veteran boss Ermotti may have pulled off the deal of the decade with the Credit Suisse rescue

    UBS veteran boss Ermotti may have pulled off the deal of the decade with the Credit Suisse rescue

    UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti on Tuesday, May 7, 2024. 

    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    After an intense weekend of negotiations in March 2023, Swiss banking giant UBS agreed to buy its embattled rival Credit Suisse.

    Despite the attractive purchase price of $3.2 billion, investors were concerned about whether UBS would manage to turn around Credit Suisse’s investment banking business — an old source of problems. UBS had also become one the biggest banks in Europe, raising political and regulatory fears.

    At the time, investors were “very concerned” about the complexity of the deal and whether UBS would make it work, Bruno Verstraete, founder of Lakefield Wealth Management, told CNBC by email.

    “When a healthy individual is sleeping next to someone with a severe flu, they are likely to contract it as well,” he said.

    The acquisition was so complex that UBS decided to change leadership and bring back former CEO Sergio Ermotti to the bank’s helm to oversee the merger.

    “Given the market conditions, political dynamics, and time constraints under which the deal was executed, investors were acutely aware of the significant risks associated with acquiring unknown liabilities,” Verstraete added.

    Now, 18 months later, that sentiment is changing, and many agree this is the deal of the decade.

    “The merger with Credit Suisse currently goes along the planned milestones and timelines, and the UBS leadership under CEO Sergio Ermotti has been absolutely right to push ahead ambitiously,” Beat Wittmann, chairman at Porta Advisors, told CNBC by email.

    Stock Chart IconStock chart icon

    UBS

    UBS concluded the merger of the parent companies in May, then finalized the transition to a single U.S. intermediate holding in June. In July, it fully merged the Swiss entities of Credit Suisse and UBS. The entire process is expected to wrap up in 2026.

    “The integration process is being conducted in a typically Swiss manner — disciplined, pragmatic, and seemingly on track. Calm and trust have been restored,” Verstraete said.

    The dissipating concerns were also clear when UBS reported second-quarter results in August, with analysts changing tack to focus on the actual business performance, rather than on the details of the merger.

    UBSannouncement of faster progress on cost savings also pleased investors. The bank now expects to reach $7 billion in cost savings in 2024, or more than half of UBS’ $13 billion target for the whole duration of the merger process by 2026. The figures compare with a 2022 baseline.

    ‘A lot of work ahead of us’

    But Ermotti is not putting his feet up.

    “Let me reiterate something you have heard me say before. We still have a lot of work ahead of us to address Credit Suisse’s structural lack of sustainable profitability,” he said in August following the results.

    “While we are encouraged by the significant progress we have made across the group, the path to restoring profitability to the pre-acquisition levels won’t be linear,” Ermotti added.

    One of the big overhangs is potential new capital requirements from Swiss authorities.

    Swiss Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter told the country’s Tages-Anzeiger newspaper earlier this year that it is “plausible” UBS will require a further $15 to $25 billion in capital to deal with national anxieties that the bank has become too big to be saved.

    Clarity on these capital additions is expected to emerge in early 2025.

    As such, some investors still need a little bit more convincing.

    “The key indicator to watch for UBS fortunes is the share price, and the capital market displays a simple and clear ‘show me first’ attitude,” Porta Advisors’ Wittmann said.

    UBS shares rallied in the wake of the deal in March 2023, but have steadied somewhat since. They are up over 21% over the last 12 months, but only 1% over the year to date.

    While the bank’s future remains uncertain, some are celebrating the developments so far.

    “This transaction could be recorded in history as one of the most successful deals ever made,” Verstraete said, adding that “Mr. Ermotti stands poised to become a national hero, though whether this acclaim will come from Swiss citizens, employees, FINMA [Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority], or shareholders remains to be seen.”

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  • Banks will continue to outperform if the Fed starts to cut and there’s a soft landing: RBC’s Cassidy

    Banks will continue to outperform if the Fed starts to cut and there’s a soft landing: RBC’s Cassidy

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    Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets co-head of global financials research, joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss the latest market trends, state of the banking sector, impact of the Fed’s rate outlook and 2024 election on banks, and more.

    04:04

    Fri, Aug 23 202410:14 AM EDT

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  • Deutsche Bank shares rise 3% after settlement of bulk of claims in long-running Postbank suit

    Deutsche Bank shares rise 3% after settlement of bulk of claims in long-running Postbank suit

    A logo stands on display above the headquarters of Deutsche Bank AG at the Aurora Business Park in Moscow, Russia.

    Andrey Rudakov | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Deutsche Bank has reached settlements with nearly 60% of plaintiffs in a long-running case alleging the German lender underpaid for its acquisition of Postbank more than a decade ago.

    In a Wednesday statement, Deutsche Bank said it had reached agreements with more than 80 plaintiffs for a settlement of 31 euros ($34.53) per share, as proposed by the bank. This will allow Germany’s largest lender to release the funds and boost Deutsche Bank’s anticipated third quarter pre-tax profit by 430 million euros, it said.

    Deutsche Bank shares were 2.96% higher at 11:48 a.m. in London, around their highest level for a month.

    Shares dropped sharply following the bank’s second-quarter results released July 24, in which it reported its first net loss in four years, largely due to a 1.3 billion euro ($1.45 billion) provision for Postbank cases.

    That includes the largest individual plaintiff representing around a third of claims, the bank said Wednesday.

    Suits were brought against Deutsche Bank by a range of institutional and private investors claiming that it underpaid in its multi-stage acquisition of Postbank, a German retail bank with millions of clients. The institutions merged in 2018.

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    Deutsche Bank share price.

    “Should Deutsche Bank enter into settlement agreements with additional plaintiffs, this could result in further positive implications on the total provisions taken for the litigation,” Deutsche Bank said.

    The claims have been hanging over the bank for more than 10 years. The Higher Regional Court of Cologne in 2020 dismissed all claims in the proceedings, but this ruling was set aside by Germany’s Federal Court of Justice in 2022 and sent back to the Higher Regional Court for a new decision.

    A chunk of claims remain outstanding.

    Jan Bayer, senior partner at the law firm Bayer Krauss Hueber representing around 50 predominantly institutional claimants, said his clients had rejected the settlement. Bayer last week called an offer of 36.5 euros per Postbank share a “late low ball.”

    Bayer told CNBC on Thursday the acceptance had “no effects on any other claimant.”

    Analysts at JP Morgan said in a Thursday note that they estimated the settlement would add around 10 basis points to Deutsche Bank’s Common Equity Tier 1 capital — a measure of bank solvency — which was 13.5% at the end of the second quarter.

    “Overall, we see the settlement as a positive, moving in the direction of removing a long outstanding litigation matter,” they said.

    They added that they did not assume the settlements would lead to a second tranche of share buybacks this year, which the bank previously announced in its second-quarter results that it was unlikely to make.

    Deutsche Bank “would need to show ongoing capital generation for the market to get comfortable with increased payout, also given some overhangs such as the [European Central Bank]’s industry-wide leveraged finance review,” JP Morgan said.

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  • Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by 818,000, Labor Department says

    Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by 818,000, Labor Department says

    The U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

    As part of its preliminary annual benchmark revisions to the nonfarm payroll numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the actual job growth was nearly 30% less than the initially reported 2.9 million from April 2023 through March of this year.

    The revision to the total payrolls level of -0.5% is the largest since 2009. The numbers are routinely revised each month, but the BLS does a broader revision each year when it gets the results of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

    Wall Street had been waiting for the revisions numbers, with many economists expecting a sizeable reduction in the originally reported figures. The new numbers, if they hold up when the BLS issues its final revisions in February, imply monthly job gains of 174,000 during the period, as opposed to the initial indication of 242,000.

    Even with the revisions, job creation during the period stood at more than 2 million, but the report could be seen as an indication that the labor market is not as strong as the previous BLS reporting had made it out to be. That in turn could provide further impetus for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates.

    “The labor market appears weaker than originally reported,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “A deteriorating labor market will allow the Fed to highlight both sides of the dual mandate and investors should expect the Fed to prepare markets for a cut at the September meeting.”

    At the sector level, the biggest downward revision came in professional and business services, where job growth was 358,000 less. Other areas revised lower included leisure and hospitality (-150,000), manufacturing (-115,000), and trade, transportation and utilities (-104,000).

    Within the trade category, retail trade numbers were cut by 129,000.

    A few sectors saw upward revisions, including private education and health services (87,000), transportation and warehousing (56,400), and other services (21,000).

    Government jobs were little changed after the revisions, picking up just 1,000.

    Nonfarm payroll jobs totaled 158.7 million through July, an increase of 1.6% from the same month in 2023. There have been concerns, though, that the labor market is starting to weaken, with the rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% representing a 0.8 percentage point gain from the 12-month low and triggering a historically accurate measure known as the “Sahm Rule” that indicates an economy in recession.

    However, much of the gain in the unemployment rate has been attributed to an increase in people returning to the workforce rather than a pronounced surge in layoffs.

    “This preliminary estimate doesn’t change the fact that the jobs recovery has been and remains historically strong, delivering solid job and wage gains, strong consumer spending, and record small business creation,” White House economist Jared Bernstein said in a statement.

    To be sure, economists at Goldman Sachs said later Wednesday that they think the BLS may have overstated the revisions by as much as half a million. The firm said undocumented immigrants who now are not in the unemployment system but were listed initially as employed amounted for some of the discrepancy, along with a general tendency for the initial revision to be overstated.

    Federal Reserve officials nonetheless are watching the jobs situation closely and are expected to approve their first interest rate cut in four years when they next meet in September. Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a much-anticipated policy speech Friday at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that could lay the groundwork for easier monetary policy ahead.

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  • U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different

    U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009. Why this time is different

    People line up as they wait for the JobNewsUSA.com South Florida Job Fair to open at the Amerant Bank Arena on June 26, 2024, in Sunrise, Florida. 

    Joe Raedle | Getty Images

    There’s a lot of debate about how much signal to take from the 818,000 downward revisions to U.S. payrolls — the largest since 2009. Is it signaling recession?

    A few facts worth considering:

    • By the time the 2009 revisions came out (824,000 jobs were overstated), the National Bureau of Economic Research had already declared a recession six months earlier.
    • Jobless claims, a contemporaneous data source, had surged north of 650,000, and the insured unemployment rate had peaked at 5% that very month.
    • GDP as reported at the time had already been negative for four straight quarters. (It would subsequently be revised higher in the two of those quarters, one of which was revised higher to show growth, rather than contraction. But the economic weakness was broadly evident in the GDP numbers and ISMs and lots of other data.)

    The current revisions cover the period from April 2023 to March, so we don’t know whether current numbers are higher or lower. It may well be that the models used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are overstating economic strength at a time of gathering weakness. While there are signs of softening in the labor market and the economy, of which this could well be further evidence, here’s how those same indicators from 2009 are behaving now:

    • No recession has been declared.
    • The 4-week moving average of jobless claims at 235,000 is unchanged from a year ago. The insured unemployment rate at 1.2% has been unchanged since March 2023. Both are a fraction of what they were during the 2009 recession.
    • Reported GDP has been positive for eight straight quarters. It would have been positive for longer if not for a quirk in the data for two quarters in early 2022.

    As a signal of deep weakness in the economy, this big revision is, for now, an outlier compared to the contemporaneous data. As a signal that job growth has been overstated by an average of 68,000 per month during the revision period, it is more or less accurate.

    But that just brings average employment growth down to 174,000 from 242,000. How the BLS parcels out that weakness over the course of the 12-month period will help determine if the revisions were concentrated more toward the end of the period, meaning they have more relevance to the current situation.

    If that is the case, it is possible the Fed might not have raised rates quite so high. If the weakness continued past the period of revisions, it is possible Fed policy might be easier now. That is especially true if, as some economists expect, productivity numbers are raised higher because the same level of GDP appears to have occurred with less work.

    But the inflation numbers are what they are, and the Fed was responding more to those during the period in question (and now) than jobs data.

    So, the revisions might modestly raise the chance of a 50 basis-point rate reduction in September for a Fed already inclined to cut in September. From a risk management standpoint, the data might add to concern that the labor market is weakening faster than previously thought. In the cutting process, the Fed will follow growth and jobs data more closely, just as it monitored inflation data more closely in the hiking process. But the Fed is likely to put more weight on the current jobless claims, business surveys, and GDP data rather than the backward looking revisions. It’s worth noting that, in the past 21 years, the revisions have only been in the same direction 43% of the time. That is, 57% of  the time, a negative revisions is followed the next year by a positive one and vice versa.

    The data agencies make mistakes, sometimes big ones. They come back and correct them often, even when it’s three months before an election.

    In fact, economists at Goldman Sachs said later Wednesday that they think the BLS may have overstated the revisions by as much as half a million. Unauthorized immigrants who now are not in the unemployment system but were listed initially as employed amounted for some of the discrepancy, along with a general tendency for the initial revision to be overstated, according to the Wall Street firm.

    The jobs data could be subject to noise from immigrant hiring and can be volatile. But there is a vast suite of macroeconomic data that, if the economy were tanking like in 2009, would be showing signs of it. At the moment, that is not the case.

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  • Jim Cramer names 3 stocks to possibly sell in this very overbought market

    Jim Cramer names 3 stocks to possibly sell in this very overbought market

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  • Jim Cramer says a double developer stock upgrade signals city real estate back

    Jim Cramer says a double developer stock upgrade signals city real estate back

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  • ‘Late low ball’: Lawyer slams Deutsche Bank settlement offer in long-running Postbank suit

    ‘Late low ball’: Lawyer slams Deutsche Bank settlement offer in long-running Postbank suit

    A Deutsche Bank branch in the financial district of Frankfurt, Germany, on May 6, 2022.

    Alex Kraus | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    A lawyer representing plaintiffs in a long-running case against Deutsche Bank on Friday slammed a proposed settlement from the German lender as a “late low ball” offer.

    The crux of the challenge against Deutsche Bank is that it underpaid for its acquisition of German retail banking giant Postbank in the late 2000s.

    Legal action over the multi-stage deal has been rumbling on since 2010. Claimants number in the hundreds in total, with various suits in process from both institutional and private investors.

    Deutsche Bank on Thursday afternoon offered claimants a settlement of 36.50 euros ($40.12) per Postbank share, Jan Bayer, senior partner at law firm Bayer Krauss Hueber, told CNBC. Claimants have until Monday to respond.

    The news was first reported by Reuters on Friday.

    A hearing on the Postbank case is due to take place at the at the Higher Regional Court in Cologne on Wednesday.

    “This tactic (a late low ball roll-over offer) has been planned for months despite statements of the bank to the contrary and our warning months ago that it bears the risk of not working,” Bayer told CNBC by email.

    He added that the offer was subject to acceptance by all claimants, one of whom had already rejected it. This implies that the settlement deal is unlikely to go through, unless conditions change.

    “The bank’s goal of avoiding the court decision on Wednesday is doomed, and any settlement seems remote,” Bayer said, adding that the timing of an “unannounced offer… in the middle of the holiday season” meant the law firm was not even certain it could contact all claimants by the deadline.

    Bayer Krauss Hueber is representing around 50 predominantly institutional claimants in various proceedings surrounding the case, who Bayer said are making around 1 billion euros in claims.

    A Deutsche Bank spokesperson told CNBC by email on Friday: “As we’ve stated in the past, we are in settlement discussions with various groups of plaintiffs within the several Postbank takeover proceedings. We cannot comment further on the status of these talks.”

    The Postbank litigation has weighed on the recent performance of Germany’s biggest lender. In its second-quarter results published last month, Deutsche Bank reported a net loss attributable to shareholders for the first time in four years, largely due to a 1.3 billion euro provision it made for Postbank cases. Deutsche Bank shares tumbled on the news at the time, but are up nearly 12% in the year to date as of Friday, according to LSEG data.

    In a previous lengthy statement on the case released in April, Deutsche Bank said the assertion of plaintiffs — that the bank was obligated to make a takeover offer at a higher price — had been “successfully disputed” adding that the lender believed this claim was “invalid.”

    The Higher Regional Court of Cologne in 2020 dismissed all claims in the proceedings, but this ruling was set aside by Germany’s Federal Court of Justice in 2022 and sent back to the Higher Regional Court for a new decision.

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  • Pendal: Liquidating mainland property companies a step in the right direction

    Pendal: Liquidating mainland property companies a step in the right direction

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    Amy Xie Patrick, Head of Income Strategies at Pendal discusses the systemic issues facing the Chinese economy and the effects of liquidating Chinese property companies.

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  • This under-the-radar tech stock is on an amazing tear. How to trade it from here

    This under-the-radar tech stock is on an amazing tear. How to trade it from here

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