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  • ASML Shares Plunge as Bookings Miss Signals Chipmaker Woes

    ASML Shares Plunge as Bookings Miss Signals Chipmaker Woes

    (Bloomberg) — ASML Holding NV’s shares plunged the most in 26 years after it booked only about half the orders analysts expected, a startling slowdown for one of the bellwethers of the semiconductor industry.

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    The Dutch company, which makes the world’s most advanced chipmaking machines, lowered its guidance for 2025 and reported bookings of €2.6 billion ($2.8 billion) in the third quarter, missing an average estimate of €5.39 billion by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

    The results caused ASML shares to plunge 16% in Amsterdam, the biggest decline since June 12, 1998. It also triggered a broad downturn in chip-related stocks, with Nvidia Corp. falling 4.5% and the benchmark Philadelphia Semiconductor Index sliding 5.3%. Makers of chip-manufacturing equipment were especially hard hit: Applied Materials Inc. and Lam Research Corp. both suffered their worst declines since 2020, and KLA Corp. had its biggest one-day drop in nearly a decade.

    “It now appears the recovery is more gradual than previously expected. This is expected to continue in 2025, which is leading to customer cautiousness,” ASML Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet said in the statement.

    The weak results were amplified by the company mistakenly releasing its financial results a day earlier than scheduled. ASML published the release, which was expected on Wednesday, prematurely “due to a technical error,” it said in a separate statement.

    The chip industry is experiencing strangely uneven times. In areas such as artificial intelligence accelerators, companies like Nvidia can’t keep up with demand. But in other sectors, including automotive and industrial, it’s in a prolonged slump with customers cutting back orders because they have too much inventory. Intel Corp. is cutting expenses in a restructuring that includes delays to planned factories in Germany and Poland, while memory chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. are also being careful with spending.

    “While bookings are typically lumpy, we have to concede given lowered guidance that it’s looking like the delayed cyclical recovery and specific customer challenges are weighing heavily on ASML’s 2025 expectations,” said Bernstein analyst Sara Russo.

    ASML lowered its guidance for 2025 total net sales to between €30 billion and €35 billion, compared to as much as €40 billion previously. Next year, the company expects a gross margin between 51% and 53%, compared to a prior range between 54% and 56%, mainly due to delayed timing for its top-end extreme ultraviolet machines, Fouquet said in the statement.

    ASML didn’t give a detailed explanation of why its bookings fell so short of estimates, beyond a few delays in plant constructions. The company will hold a call with investors Wednesday.

    Europe’s most valuable technology company’s shares have fallen by a third since hitting a record high in July, hurt by the prospect of more US restrictions on its business in China, as well as a broader weakness in the semiconductor sector.

    “Many will debate whether this release was an accident or planned, but clearly disappointing,” Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C. J. Muse said in an emailed statement. “Weakness across Intel and Samsung is clearly leading to 2025 tracking worse than we thought,” he said.

    Last month, the Netherlands published new export control rules that made ASML apply for export licenses in The Hague instead of US for some of its older machines. That came on the heels of a Bloomberg report that the Dutch government would limit some of ASML’s ability to repair and maintain its semiconductor equipment in China.

    China remained ASML’s biggest market, accounting for 47% of sales in the quarter. Sales to the Asian nation jumped by nearly 20% from previous quarter to €2.79 billion.

    But the demand from China may slow in the upcoming period and Washington’s ongoing chip war against Beijing continues to be a long-term overhang on ASML shares. The company could lose nearly a quarter of its sales in China next year, and 45% of its overall revenue generated in the country is at risk from further restrictions, according to UBS analyst Francois-Xavier Bouvignies.

    –With assistance from Henry Ren and Subrat Patnaik.

    (Updates US trading in third paragraph.)

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  • US Equity Futures Tick Higher Before Earnings Test: Markets Wrap

    US Equity Futures Tick Higher Before Earnings Test: Markets Wrap

    (Bloomberg) — US equity futures started the week on a note of optimism as investors looked ahead to corporate results for further vindication of soft economic landing bets.

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    Contracts on the S&P 500 ticked higher and those on the rates-sensitive Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%, pointing to extended gains for a rally that propelled the index to a fresh record last week. Oil fell as traders bet that China’s stimulus will fall short of boosting consumption. Cash Treasuries trading is closed Monday for a US holiday.

    A newly accommodative Federal Reserve is providing fresh fodder for bulls — but they’re also fighting against lofty valuations. The S&P 500’s 20% gain through September has been its strongest performance for the first nine months of a year since 1997, according to National Bank of Canada economists including Stefane Marion. That’s pushed earnings-based valuations pushed to rich levels across industries.

    “It remains uncertain whether the market will finish the year as strongly as it began and whether this easing cycle will provide substantial momentum for equities,” the economists wrote in a note to clients. “The current easing cycle is unfolding in an environment of unusually high valuations.”

    Meanwhile, China’s main CSI 300 Index rose about 2% in volatile trading Monday, after capping its worst week since late July as Beijing’s latest efforts to jumpstart growth disappoint those seeking more details on incentives.

    Bitcoin climbed to the highest level in two weeks as investors took disappointment over China as good news for cryptocurrencies that may stand to benefit from China stock outflows.

    Despite promises of more support for the struggling property sector and hinting at greater government borrowing, a briefing by China’s Finance Minister Lan Fo’an on the weekend didn’t produce the headline dollar figure for fresh fiscal stimulus that the markets had sought.

    Corporate scorecards are the next test. Results from Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. are due Tuesday, where the banks will provide an early verdict on the impact of interest rate cuts on their bottom lines. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co and Bank of New York Mellon Corp. all topped estimates Friday.

    In Europe, profits are anticipated to come in lower due to anemic economic growth and a stunted recovery in China, which is likely to drag down luxury goods makers like LVMH.

    In the premarket, MicroStrategy Inc. led gains in cryptocurrency-linked companies. Boeing Co. fell as the beleaguered planemaker plans to cut its global workforce by about 10% and announced $5 billion in charges. SentinelOne Inc. shares rose 4.2% as Piper Sandler upgraded the cybersecurity software company saying current estimates of its market share gains are too low.

    Key events this week:

    • China trade balance, Monday

    • India CPI, Monday

    • UK unemployment rate and average weekly earnings, Tuesday

    • Eurozone industrial production, Tuesday

    • Canada CPI, Tuesday

    • Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup earnings, Tuesday

    • Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump will be interviewed by Bloomberg editor-in-chief John Micklethwait at the Economic Club of Chicago, Tuesday

    • New Zealand CPI, Wednesday

    • Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia central bank interest-rate decisions, Wednesday

    • UK CPI, PPI, RPI and house price index, Wednesday

    • ASML, Morgan Stanley earnings, Wednesday

    • Australia unemployment, Thursday

    • Eurozone CPI, ECB rate decision, Thursday

    • US retail sales, jobless claims, industrial production, business inventories, Thursday

    • TSMC, Netflix earnings, Thursday

    • Japan CPI, Friday

    • China GDP, retail sales, industrial production, home prices, Friday

    • UK retail sales, Friday

    Some of the main moves in markets:

    Stocks

    • S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% as of 8:15 a.m. New York time

    • Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%

    • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%

    • The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed

    • The MSCI World Index was little changed

    • Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index rose 1.9%

    Currencies

    • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%

    • The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0914

    • The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3044

    • The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 149.74 per dollar

    Cryptocurrencies

    • Bitcoin rose 3.3% to $64,800.93

    • Ether rose 3.4% to $2,543.17

    Bonds

    • The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.10%

    • Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.27%

    • Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.24%

    Commodities

    • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2% to $74.04 a barrel

    • Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2,651.87 an ounce

    This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

    –With assistance from James Hirai, Sagarika Jaisinghani and Michael Msika.

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  • China Puts Investor Patience to Test as Key Briefing Underwhelms

    China Puts Investor Patience to Test as Key Briefing Underwhelms

    (Bloomberg) — China’s highly anticipated Finance Ministry briefing on Saturday lacked the firepower that equity investors had hoped for, indicating that the volatility that’s gripped the market following a world-beating rally will likely extend.

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    While Finance Minister Lan Fo’an promised more support for the struggling property sector and hinted at greater government borrowing to shore up the economy, the briefing didn’t produce a headline dollar figure for fresh fiscal stimulus that the markets had sought. A lack of new incentives to boost consumption, which has been a weak link in the economy, is another reason why traders may feel disappointed.

    The ministry “tried its best,” but there is a large gap between what was announced and what the market was expecting, said Shen Meng, a director at Beijing-based boutique investment bank Chanson & Co. “So the overall sentiment for investors is negative.”

    Patience has been wearing thin among investors, who have clamored for Beijing to announce big-bang fiscal measures to help sustain the rally sparked by the stimulus blitz that authorities unleashed in late September. The CSI 300 Index, a benchmark of onshore equities, capped its biggest weekly loss since late July on Friday, with volatility rising ahead of the MOF briefing.

    A further unwinding of the rally risks fueling concern that equities are heading for yet another false dawn, which may bring more selling pressure. The market has been caught in a start-stop cycle of gains and losses a few times before as Beijing’s piecemeal approach to stimulus produced only brief rebounds.

    Local governments will be allowed to issue special bonds to buy unsold homes and turn them into subsidized housing, Lan and his deputies said on Saturday, while refraining from putting a price tag on any additional stimulus. Lan also hinted at room for issuing more sovereign bonds and greater government spending, steps that could be announced later this month or early November.

    Prior to the weekend, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected China to deploy as much as 2 trillion yuan ($283 billion) in fresh fiscal stimulus on Saturday, including potential subsidies, consumption vouchers and financial support for families with children.

    “The room for further fiscal stimulus is still on the table,” said Britney Lam, head of long-short equities for Magellan Investments Holdings Ltd. In the meantime, “markets will likely see further profit taking,” she said.

    Inflation data released on Sunday is likely to add to investor concerns. It showed that China’s consumer prices rose less than forecast in September, while factory-gate charges fell for a 24th straight month, underscoring the need for further policy support to help the economy break out of deflation.

    The CSI 300 Index slid 3.3% last week, but it’s still up 21% from its close on Sept. 23, the day before China’s central bank announced a broad package of measures that included an interest-rate cut and liquidity support for the equity market. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index lost 6.6% last week after surging more than 30% in the previous three weeks.

    While the epic rebound in Chinese shares has spurred the likes of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and BlackRock Inc. to upgrade the market, it has also drawn skepticism from others such as Invesco Ltd. and Morgan Stanley who say stocks have already run too far too fast.

    What’s Next?

    Investors will soon turn attention to the next major policy briefing in the coming weeks — from the Communist Party-controlled parliament that oversees the budget — for details of more stimulus. At its October meeting last year, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress approved additional sovereign debt and raised the budget-deficit ratio.

    Traders will keep waiting for more details after the finance ministry on Saturday used phrases such as “relatively large amount, or relatively large room” to describe the measures, said Frances Cheung, strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.

    “On balance, the market is unlikely to get excited,” he said, when asked about how stocks may react on Monday.

    China’s sovereign bonds were little changed on the measures announced on Saturday. By noon on the day, the 10-year yield had erased an earlier drop of as much as two basis points, according to traders, who asked not to be identified as they are not allowed to comment publicly on the rates market.

    A strengthened fiscal push would likely weigh on China’s bonds by encouraging traders to move funds into riskier investments with potentially better returns. An increased supply of debt may also sap liquidity in the financial system, making it harder for the market to absorb the entire amount.

    The yield curve will probably move lower, given debt issuance this year may come below market consensus, said Zhaopeng Xing, a senior strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. Going forward, “we expect 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long treasury and 1 trillion yuan of local bonds to be announced,” he added.

    –With assistance from Abhishek Vishnoi, Zhu Lin, Wenjin Lv, Shuiyu Jing and April Ma.

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  • TD will plead guilty to money-laundering charges in NJ court

    TD will plead guilty to money-laundering charges in NJ court

    Toronto-Dominion Bank will plead guilty to money-laundering charges, a US Department of Justice prosecutor said in a Newark, New Jersey, courtroom on Thursday. Two of the bank’s US subsidiary units intend to enter guilty pleas, the prosecutor said during a hearing before a US District judge. The charges include failing to maintain an adequate anti-money […]

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  • Ratan Tata, patriarch of biggest Indian conglomerate, dies at 86

    Ratan Tata, patriarch of biggest Indian conglomerate, dies at 86

    Ratan Tata, the businessman who inherited one of India’s oldest conglomerates and transformed it through a string of eye-catching deals into a global empire, has died. He was 86. 

    His death was announced in a statement by Tata Group Chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran, who called Tata “a truly uncommon leader whose immeasurable contributions have shaped not only the Tata Group but also the very fabric of our nation.”

    As chairman for more than two decades beginning in 1991, Tata rapidly expanded the 156-year-old business house. It now has operations in more than 100 countries and clocked $165 billion in revenue for the year ended March 2024.  

    Through more than two dozen listed firms, the conglomerate makes products ranging from coffee and cars to salt and software, runs airlines and introduced India’s first superapp. It has also partnered with Taiwan’s Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. for a $11 billion chip fabrication plant in India and is said to be planning an iPhone assembly plant.

    Under Tata’s stewardship, the conglomerate embarked on an expansion drive that turned the tables on India’s colonial past. It snapped up iconic British assets including steelmaker Corus Group Plc. in 2007 and luxury carmaker Jaguar Land Rover in 2008. But the financial crisis roiled global markets soon after, damping car sales in developed economies.

    “Ratan Tata imagined big and took the empire beyond India,” said Kavil Ramachandran, executive director of the Thomas Schmidheiny Center for Family Enterprise at the Indian School of Business in Hyderabad. “While he thought globally, these turned out to be hasty initiatives.”

    Tata helmed the group for 21 years in his first stint and retired in 2012. He returned as interim chief for a few months in 2016 following the acrimonious ouster of his successor, Cyrus Mistry.

    Tata also found himself at the center of intense battles for control of the conglomerate not once but twice in his career. 

    The first battle, when he took over as chairman in 1991, pitted him against long-time executives who had been running fiefdoms within the conglomerate under his predecessor. The second, in 2016—four years after his retirement—was about preserving his legacy as Mistry sought to reduce debt. 

    Tata won both. In 2016, Mistry was ousted as the chairman of Tata Sons, the group’s main holding firm, in a boardroom coup. The move triggered a bitter courtroom battle that threatened to end a 70-year partnership with Mistry’s family and stamped Tata’s authority on the conglomerate. In 2020, Mistry’s family signaled its intent to sell an 18% stake in Tata Sons.

    Terrorist Attack

    The conglomerate faced another crisis in late 2008 when terrorists targeted the group’s flagship hotel, the Taj Mahal Palace, overlooking Mumbai’s Gateway of India, part of a broader attack on the city. About 31 people, including 11 employees, died during the four-day siege. Guests staying at the hotel today are greeted by a memorial with the names of the victims, each of whose families Tata personally visited.

    Tata never married and had no children. His death leaves a vacuum at the helm of the powerful Tata Trusts, a collective of charities. These philanthropic trusts own about 66% of Tata Sons, which in turn controls all the major listed Tata firms. Tata Trusts have traditionally been led by a member of the Tata family and wields control over the conglomerate through its holding in Tata Sons. 

    In his last few years, Tata became a passionate backer of startups including Ola Electric Mobility Ltd., which had a bumper listing in 2024, and Goodfellows, a platform aimed at intergenerational friendships.

    The origins of the Tata group date back to 1868, when Jamsetji Nusserwanji Tata set up a trading company that later diversified into cotton mills, steel plants and hotels. The Tatas belong to the Parsi Zoroastrian community, which fled religious persecution in Persia centuries ago before finding refuge in western India.

    Parents Divorced

    Born in Mumbai on Dec. 28, 1937, Ratan Naval Tata was brought up by his grandmother after his parents, Naval and Sooni Tata, divorced when he was 10. His father had been adopted into the main Tata family at 13 by the daughter-in-law of Jamsetji Tata, founder of the Tata Group.

    Usually chauffeured around in a Rolls-Royce, Tata attended school in India’s business capital, Mumbai. As a young student, he learned the piano and played cricket but was afraid of public speaking. His younger brother, Jimmy Tata, stayed out of public life, and little is known about him.

    “We faced a fair bit of ragging and personal discomfort because of our parent’s divorce, which in those days wasn’t as common as it is today,” Ratan Tata wrote in a Facebook post in 2020. “But our grandmother taught us to retain dignity at all costs, a value that’s stayed with me until today. It involved walking away from these situations, which otherwise we would have fought back against.”

    Tata went to college in the US at Cornell University with plans to study mechanical engineering, as his father wished, but he found his calling elsewhere.

    “I had always wanted to be an architect, and at the end of my second year at Cornell, I switched—much to my father’s consternation and upset,” Tata recalled in a 2009 interview with Cornell. He graduated in 1962 with a degree in architecture.

    IBM Offer

    Tata wanted to settle down in California, but the poor health of his grandmother prompted him to return to India, where he had a job offer from International Business Machines Corp.

    The then-chairman of Tata Sons, Jehangir Ratanji Dadabhoy Tata, popularly known as JRD, persuaded him to instead work for the group. The two men were distantly related, parts of different branches of the Tata family tree. Groomed by JRD, the younger Tata started his career at the conglomerate in 1962, undertaking several stints at various units before joining management in the 1970s.

    In 1991, when Tata was handpicked for the top job at Tata Sons, the group was mostly focused on India. Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., the software maker that would become a cash cow years later, was still in its infancy. The automotive business hadn’t yet started making passenger cars.

    The 1990s was also the decade when India started cutting its notorious red tape, discarding parts of a failed Soviet-style planned economy. That meant private sector companies could compete more effectively in sectors that were dominated by government enterprises, paving the way for faster economic growth and unleashing consumption.

    As India allowed foreign automakers from Ford Motor Co. to [hotlink]Hyundai Motor[/hotlink] Co. to set up factories and tap burgeoning consumer demand, Tata decided to make cars as well. Tata called the first locally built passenger vehicle—rolled out in 1998 and named Indica—“my baby.”

    As India’s economy started to boom in the 2000s, Tata became more adventurous. In 2007, he took on debt to pay about $13 billion for Corus, the British steelmaker. The following year, he acquired Jaguar Land Rover, or JLR, from Ford for $2.3 billion. He also bought Tetley Group Plc and the heavy-vehicles unit of South Korea’s Daewoo group.

    New Challenges

    While the acquisition spree helped bring the conglomerate’s geographical footprint to an entirely new level, it also set up a number of challenges.

    The 2008 financial crisis triggered a broad slide in commodity prices, while a steel glut fueled by an increase in Chinese exports depressed prices, sparking criticism that Tata had overpaid to acquire Corus. Tata Steel Ltd. has pared its European operations in recent years in the face of slumping demand and high cost structures, and slashed thousands of jobs in the continent.

    JLR also hit a rough patch soon after it was acquired by Tata as the financial crisis pummeled demand for luxury cars as well as the company’s ability to access credit. While the Tata Group managed to turn around the marquee car brand within a couple of years, it soon faced other headwinds, from slumping Chinese demand to Brexit. The pandemic and chips shortage affected JLR in recent years. 

    Tata oversaw another auto-related setback with the failure of the Nano microcar. He wanted to build a cheap automobile that would retail for 100,000 rupees ($1,190.9), targeted at the millions of Indians who typically used motorcycles to get around and transport their families. Production of the Nano was ended in 2018, about 10 years after its unveiling, amid a lack of demand due to early quality and safety concerns. 

    Perhaps the final business battle Tata fought was his most gratifying. 

    In 2021, Tata Sons regained control of Air India Ltd., the nation’s flagship carrier, almost 90 years after it was taken over by the state. Heavily indebted and a shadow of its former glory—Salvador Dali once designed ashtrays as gifts for the airline’s guests— the deal meant Tata was able to welcome home to the group an airline originally founded by his mentor, JRD. 

    P R Sanjai, Bloomberg

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  • Boeing Withdraws Contract Offer as Union Talks Break Down

    Boeing Withdraws Contract Offer as Union Talks Break Down

    (Bloomberg) — The crisis engulfing Boeing Co. took a dramatic turn after negotiations to resolve an almost monthlong strike collapsed and S&P Global Ratings warned it may cut the planemaker’s credit grade to junk.

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    Both the embattled company and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers blamed each other for the impasse. Boeing said the union made “non-negotiable demands,” while the IAM said the company was “hell-bent on standing on the non-negotiated offer.”

    The impasse leaves Boeing with no clear path forward to overcome the debilitating strike, which has shut down production at its key commercial manufacturing base on the US west coast. Even before talks broke down, S&P highlighted the urgency to reach a resolution by pointing to an estimated $10 billion cash burn this year that will likely require additional funding to cover day-to-day cash needs and debt maturities.

    “Unfortunately, the union didn’t seriously consider our proposals,” Stephanie Pope, who runs Boeing’s commercial airplane unit, said in a memo shared by the company. “Instead, the union made non-negotiable demands far in excess of what can be accepted if we are to remain competitive as a business.”

    Boeing’s shares fell 2.7% as of 9:42 a.m. in New York on Wednesday. The stock had declined about 41% this year through Tuesday’s close, shedding more than $60 billion in market value as the company bounced from crisis to crisis.

    Boeing’s now-withdrawn contract proposal, made two weeks ago in a direct approach to workers, offered to hike wages 30% and boost retirement benefits.

    Boeing and leaders for IAM District 751 have been in a stalemate over pay and pensions since the union’s 33,000 members walked off the job shortly after midnight on Sept. 13. The company’s first major strike in 16 years has taken a toll on its finances, costing Boeing $100 million a day in lost revenue by TD Cowen’s estimates.

    With cash rapidly dwindling while its debt load balloons, Boeing is mulling selling at least $10 billion of new stock once it knows the full extent of the financial damage from the work stoppage, people familiar with the consideration said last week.

    Boeing has said that preserving its investment-grade credit rating is an important goal. Junk-rated companies usually face higher borrowing costs than their investment-grade counterparts. Boeing has $4 billion of debt coming due in 2025 and also $8 billion coming due in 2026, according to Moody’s Ratings, which said last month that it’s considering downgrading Boeing to junk.

    The company has initiated a savings program that includes furloughs for workers, pay freezes and travel bans. Pope said in her memo that “we do not take these impacts lightly as we take actions and consider next steps.”

    The two sides had only picked up negotiations overseen by a mediator again this week after two weeks of stalemate. Throughout the strike over the past weeks, parties made blunders that angered rank-and-file members and complicated efforts to resolve the difference.

    The IAM local union’s leadership endorsed the company’s initial offer of a 25% wage increase over four years, well below what many members expected as recompense for repeated below-inflation annual wage rises. The offer also eliminated an annual bonus. IAM members overwhelmingly rejected the offer and voted to strike.

    Boeing later misjudged the union’s resolve, bypassing leaders to present an offer directly to workers via the media with an ultimatum that they approve it within days. The terms included a 30% wage increase over four years, reinstating the bonus and boosting the company’s contribution to workers’ 401K retirement plans.

    The move backfired by solidifying support for local labor leaders, and encouraging members to dig in on their demand for more pay and better retirement benefits.

    In a statement after the latest talks collapsed, the IAM said Boeing refused to propose any further wage increases or reinstate the defined benefit pension.

    “By refusing to bargain the offer, the company made it harder to reach an agreement,” the union said. “Your negotiating committee attempted to address multiple priorities that could have led to an offer we could bring to a vote, but the company wasn’t willing to move in our direction.”

    –With assistance from Olivia Raimonde.

    (Updates shares in the fifth paragraph.)

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  • Stocks Drop, US Yields Top 4% as Rate-Cut Bets Ebb: Markets Wrap

    Stocks Drop, US Yields Top 4% as Rate-Cut Bets Ebb: Markets Wrap

    (Bloomberg) — Stocks fell and key Treasury bond yields rose back above 4% after robust US data undercut wagers on a big interest-rate reduction next month from the Federal Reserve.

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    Contracts on the S&P 500 shed 0.4% while Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.5%. Ten-year US Treasury borrowing costs topped 4% for the first time since August, extending gains from Friday, when the monthly US jobs number blew past expectations. Swaps markets have moved to pricing less than a quarter-point rate cut next month, having expected a 50 basis-point move until recently.

    The shifting rate expectations are likely to weigh on equity markets, which have rallied to record highs recently amid signs of a robust US economy, easing inflation and big rate cuts. In addition, crude oil prices pushed higher to approach $80 a barrel, as investors await Israel’s response to the recent Iranian missile strike.

    Marija Veitmane, head of equity strategy at State Street Global Markets, said she still remains constructive on the equity outlook as economies remain resilient and inflation is easing. However, “we have to be a bit careful in terms of drivers, as we will probably not get a lot of big aggressive rate cuts,” Veitmane said on Bloomberg TV.

    Investors are now looking ahead to the US inflation data due Thursday, with economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting year-on-year price growth at 2.3%, a slight slowdown from the previous reading. The earnings season also kicks off this week with reports from big US banks. Earnings growth is seen robust though it’s expected to slow from the second quarter.

    Among individual stocks, Pfizer Inc. climbed more than 2% in US premarket trading, after Bloomberg reported activist investor Starboard Value had taken a stake of about $1 billion in the firm. Arcadium Lithium Plc. leapt 29% on news Rio Tinto Plc had made a non-binding takeover approach.

    Europe’s Stoxx 600 equity index edged higher, while bond yields rose across the continent. The biggest stock movers were Heidelberg Materials AG, which benefited from a report that the Adani Group has started talks to buy the company’s Indian cement operations, and luxury-goods firm Richemont, which rose after an announcement it would sell the online retailer YNAP to Mytheresa.

    Here are some key events this week:

    • Euro-area finance ministers meet in Luxembourg on Monday. ECB President Christine Lagarde will participate

    • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Fed Board member Michele Bowman speak at different events on Monday as investors listen for any clues to policymakers’ thinking ahead of next month’s meeting

    • Brazil and Mexico publish CPI data, New Zealand, Israel and India hold interest rate decisions

    • US CPI for September, the final inflation print before the presidential election, is due Thursday

    • President Biden embarks on a trip to Germany and Angola, through Oct. 15, his first trip abroad since withdrawing from the presidential race, on Thursday

    • New York Fed President John Williams gives keynote remarks at Binghamton University in New York. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speaks in a fireside chat on the economic outlook on Thursday

    Some of the main moves in markets:

    Stocks

    • S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% as of 8:19 a.m. New York time

    • Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.5%

    • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%

    • The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.1%

    • The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%

    Currencies

    • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed

    • The euro was little changed at $1.0980

    • The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3081

    • The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 148.07 per dollar

    Cryptocurrencies

    • Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $63,022.61

    • Ether rose 1.2% to $2,467.38

    Bonds

    • The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.00%

    • Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.24%

    • Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.18%

    Commodities

    This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

    –With assistance from Catherine Bosley and Sujata Rao.

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  • European Stocks Futures Gain Before US Jobs Data: Markets Wrap

    European Stocks Futures Gain Before US Jobs Data: Markets Wrap

    (Bloomberg) — European and US stock futures gained in line with Asian equities ahead of US jobs data that will identify the path ahead for interest rates. An oil price rally eased after Middle East tensions led to the biggest one-day jump in almost a year.

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    Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.2%, and contracts on the S&P 500 advanced 0.1%. Equities in Japan and South Korea rose while markets in mainland China were shut for a holiday. A gauge of Chinese shares in Hong Kong advanced as traders assessed its recent rally’s sustainability and await details of fiscal stimulus and holiday spending.

    An index of dollar declined marginally, but is still poised for the biggest weekly gain in nearly six months as traders pared back expectations for aggressive US rate cuts. Treasuries were flat after selling off on Thursday, increasing yields to levels not seen since September.

    West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude eased slightly after each rose more than 5% to a one-month high on Thursday. Earlier gains came after puzzling comments from President Joe Biden, who told reporters the US was discussing whether to support potential Israeli strikes against Iranian oil facilities.

    Investors are concerned that, should Israel strike critical Iranian assets, the Islamic Republic will lash out and escalate the conflict, dragging in more countries and potentially disrupting global energy shipments. Israel said it bombed more than a dozen Hezbollah targets in Beirut on Thursday.

    “The market fear is that there could be supply disruptions coming out of Iran,” said Tai Hui, chief Asia market strategist for JPMorgan Asset Management, on Bloomberg Television. “Demand for oil should remain healthy, but at the same time the risk to the supply side is very much there.”

    The initial buying frenzy in Chinese stocks after Beijing’s stimulus is waning as traders take profit and await policy details and holiday spending data for further confidence. Invesco Ltd.’s chief investment officer for Hong Kong and China, Raymond Ma, who predicted double-digit returns in Chinese equities this year, said there are signs the surge has gone too far for some stocks. Still, strategists at HSBC Holdings Plc and BlackRock Inc. are among Wall Street heavyweights turning bullish on the once beaten-down market.

    The yen strengthened 0.6% against the dollar, paring some of its recent losses from earlier this week after Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba had said the nation isn’t ready for another interest-rate increase.

    Amid all the geopolitical uncertainty, investors are looking for further signals on the health of the US economy, with the monthly payrolls report due on Friday. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2% in September while payrolls are expected to rise by 150,000.

    “If the unemployment rate ticks up, I wouldn’t be surprised that markets would shift back toward expecting 50 basis points and then it is a question of how the Fed may react,” Kallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt, said on Bloomberg Television.

    Other economic signs showed robustness in the US economy. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services posted its best reading since February 2023, ahead of Wall Street estimates. Applications for US unemployment benefits rose slightly last week to a level that is consistent with a limited number of layoffs. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, were little changed from the previous week.

    “The US dollar could stay supported on safe haven demand amid Middle East risks, and more so if US payrolls surprise on the upside,” Wei Liang Chang, a foreign-exchange and credit strategist at DBS Bank Ltd., wrote in a research note. “The yen may be a beneficiary too, as geopolitical risks restrain appetite for carry trades”

    Key events this week:

    Some of the main moves in markets:

    Stocks

    • S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 6:34 a.m. London time

    • Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) were little changed

    • Japan’s Topix rose 0.3%

    • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.7%

    • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 2.2%

    • Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.2%

    • Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.1%

    Currencies

    • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed

    • The euro was little changed at $1.1030

    • The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 146.11 per dollar

    • The offshore yuan fell 0.2% to 7.0571 per dollar

    • The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6846

    • The British pound was little changed at $1.3134

    Cryptocurrencies

    • Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $61,156.99

    • Ether rose 1.5% to $2,376.85

    Bonds

    Commodities

    • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.1% to $73.62 a barrel

    • Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,666.99 an ounce

    This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

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  • China Rally Spurs $7 Billion Loss for Shorts of US-Listed Stocks

    China Rally Spurs $7 Billion Loss for Shorts of US-Listed Stocks

    (Bloomberg) — The dramatic stimulus-fueled rally in Chinese stocks has cost traders betting against US-listed shares roughly $6.9 billion in mark-to-market losses, according to a report from S3 Partners.

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    The country’s benchmark CSI 300 index has risen more than 27% from its Sept. 13 trough, supported by a spate of policy-easing measures, while the Nasdaq Golden Dragon index of US-listed Chinese stocks has surged more than 36%. That’s erased about $3.7 billion in year-to-date gains, and left shorts now nursing around $3.2 billion in paper losses, according to the market analytics firm.

    “Prior to the recent rally short sellers were profitably building their positions in a falling market,” Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director of predictive analytics at S3, said in the report. Since the rebound, however, short selling in the group has slowed, he added.

    Before Beijing surprised the market with its stimulus plans, shorting Chinese stocks had been a popular strategy, with a number of market observers underweighting the sector, and some even labeling the country “uninvestable.” Just last month in a Bank of America Corp. global fund manager survey, 19% respondents said that shorting Chinese equities was the most crowded trade, second only to going long the so-called Magnificent Seven technology stocks.

    The most painful trades for short sellers have been Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and JD.com Inc., S3 data show. On the flip side, traders betting against Nio Inc., Li Auto Inc., XPeng Inc. and PDD Holdings Inc. are still in the black.

    Even with the recent rally in US-listed Chinese equities, short sellers aren’t rushing to cover their positions just yet, the data show. Still, if the market continues to advance, S3 expects “a significant amount of short covering in the sector” to push stock prices even higher.

    “BABA’s stock price might see the greatest impact if shorts begin covering in size as the stock has seen increased short selling into this rally,” Dusaniwsky said. “With short selling no longer offsetting some of the long buying pressure in the stock, buy-to-covers side-by-side with long buying may steepen the trajectory if its price moves.”

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  • Nasdaq Futures Jump 2% as Big Fed Cut Spurs Rally: Markets Wrap

    Nasdaq Futures Jump 2% as Big Fed Cut Spurs Rally: Markets Wrap

    (Bloomberg) — Stocks rallied across the globe as the Federal Reserve’s half-percentage-point interest-rate cut reignited investor sentiment.

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    US equity futures soared, with a 1.5% gain in S&P 500 contracts putting the underlying benchmark on course to test a record high in the cash market. Nasdaq 100 contracts jumped 2%, fueled by bets of resilient American growth and lower borrowing costs. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index advanced as much as 1.3%.

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    “What we are seeing is the belief that the Fed has everything under control and they are going to engineer a soft landing and therefore risk assets are moving ahead strongly,” Jon Bell, a portfolio manager at Newton Investment Management, said on Bloomberg TV.

    A gauge of the dollar weakened 0.5%, pulling it closer to its January lows. Treasuries steadied as traders returned their focus to the state of the labor market and US jobless claims data due later. Bitcoin hit a three-week high.

    Wednesday’s decision by the Fed has reinforced expectations that the US economy will escape a downturn. A survey of Bloomberg Terminal subscribers shows 75% expect the US to avoid a technical recession by the end of next year.

    The Fed’s first reduction in more than four years was accompanied by projections indicating an additional 50 basis points of cuts across the remaining two policy meetings this year.

    Fed Chair Jerome Powell said launching the unwind of the central bank’s historic tightening campaign with a big move while the US economy is still strong would help limit the chances of a downturn.

    “The Fed is embarking on what I see as a series of rate cuts,” said Stephen Jen, the chief executive at Eurizon SLJ Capital. The size of the initial move “won’t make a big difference as equities should soon stabilize, bond yields will likely drift lower for good reasons — like disinflation and not a hard landing. The dollar should continue to weaken against a broad range of currencies,” he said.

    Meanwhile, the Bank of England is likely to refrain from cutting rates for a second consecutive meeting on Thursday, maintaining a patient approach to reversing the most aggressive policy tightening in decades. Governor Andrew Bailey may provide investors more hints that the central bank will cut rates again in November.

    Norway’s krone led gains against the dollar after the central bank kept borrowing costs unchanged and signaled no intention to cut them before next year as it contends with inflation risks.

    In Asia, a gauge of the region’s stocks rallied by the most in a week, while an index of Asian currencies rose to the strongest level in more than a year.

    Still on the monetary policy decision front, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda faces the delicate task on Friday of making sure investors are firmly aware of rate hikes to come, without ruffling markets even as he stands pat on policy. The yen swung between gains and losses in volatile trading Thursday.

    In metals, gold rose toward a record, silver rallied and copper climbed to its highest level since mid-July, spurred on by the Fed’s move. Oil advanced as the risk-on tone swept across wider markets, with traders monitoring escalating tensions in the Middle East.

    Key events this week:

    • UK rate decision, Thursday

    • US Conf. Board leading index, initial jobless claims, existing home sales, Thursday

    • FedEx earnings, Thursday

    • Japan rate decision, Friday

    • Eurozone consumer confidence, Friday

    Some of the main moves in markets:

    Stocks

    • The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1.3% as of 11:01 a.m. London time

    • S&P 500 futures rose 1.5%

    • Nasdaq 100 futures rose 2%

    • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1%

    • The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.4%

    • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 1.1%

    Currencies

    • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%

    • The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1178

    • The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 142.78 per dollar

    • The offshore yuan rose 0.5% to 7.0632 per dollar

    • The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.3283

    Cryptocurrencies

    • Bitcoin rose 3.5% to $62,319.01

    • Ether rose 4.6% to $2,432.11

    Bonds

    • The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.70%

    • Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.20%

    • Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.84%

    Commodities

    • Brent crude rose 1.3% to $74.58 a barrel

    • Spot gold rose 1.3% to $2,591.02 an ounce

    This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

    –With assistance from Winnie Hsu, Masahiro Hidaka, Anchalee Worrachate, Chiranjivi Chakraborty and Farah Elbahrawy.

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  • JPMorgan explores taking over Apple card that Goldman wants to ditch

    JPMorgan explores taking over Apple card that Goldman wants to ditch

    JPMorgan Chase & Co. is in discussions with Apple Inc. about taking over a credit card portfolio that rival Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has been trying to ditch. The biggest US bank is among a slew of credit-card issuers that have explored taking over the Apple card, according to a person familiar with the matter. […]

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  • Microsoft Announces $60 Billion Buyback, Raises Dividend 10%

    Microsoft Announces $60 Billion Buyback, Raises Dividend 10%

    (Bloomberg) — Microsoft Corp. unveiled a new $60 billion stock-buyback program, matching its largest-ever repurchase authorization, and raised its quarterly dividend 10%.

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    The software company said shareholders as of Nov. 21 will receive a quarterly dividend of 83 cents a share, compared with the current 75 cents. The share repurchase agreement, which has no expiration date, replaces a $60 billion buyback program announced in 2021.

    Microsoft, the world’s second-most valuable company, has benefited in the past several years from market exuberance for artificial intelligence. The software maker has infused its product line with AI technology from partner OpenAI and has touted the tools’ ability to augment its business applications, such as Teams, Word and Outlook. Microsoft earlier Monday released a new range of AI tools.

    The shares rose less than 1% in extended trading after the buyback was announced after closing at $431.34 in regular trading on Monday. The stock has gained 31% in the past year.

    Microsoft had $75.5 billion in cash and equivalents as of June 30, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Free cash flow in the fiscal fourth quarter was $23.3 billion, the Redmond, Washington-based company said in July, “up 18% year-over-year reflecting higher capital expenditures to support our cloud and AI offerings.”

    (Updates with extended trading in fourth paragraph.)

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  • Stock Rotation Is Back on Bets Fed Will ‘Go Big’: Markets Wrap

    Stock Rotation Is Back on Bets Fed Will ‘Go Big’: Markets Wrap

    (Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders revived prospects for a half-point Federal Reserve rate cut next week, spurring a rotation into stocks that would benefit the most from policy easing.

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    Economically sensitive shares outperformed the group of tech megacaps that have led the bull-market rally, with the Russell 2000 index of smaller firms climbing 2.2%. An equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 — where the likes of Nvidia Corp. carry the same heft as Dollar Tree Inc. — beat the US equity benchmark. That gauge is less sensitive to gains from the biggest companies — providing a glimpse of hope the rally will broaden out.

    As the S&P 500 marched from one record to the next in the first half of the year, some investors grew concerned that only a handful of members outside of technology giants were participating in the rally. Corners of the market outside of big tech are barreling higher as investors grow more confident that the start of the Fed cutting cycle will keep fueling Corporate America.

    “The biggest news in the last 24 hours has been the shift in odds for a 50 basis-point cut at next week’s Fed meeting,” said Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG. “Small-caps offer better risk/reward in the near-term, and think mega-cap tech likely sees another breather, although it will certainly participate if the S&P 500 makes new highs.”

    The S&P 500 rose 0.6%, while its equal-weighted version gained 1%. The Nasdaq 100 added 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.8%. Treasury two-year yields dropped four basis points to 3.6%. The dollar fell. Gold hit another all-time high.

    Eric Johnston at Cantor Fitzgerald says that going into the Fed decision, there’s a “very good” set-up for small caps. That’s the group considered to have the most-positive leverage to a policy easing cycle, he noted, citing the fact that the Russell 2000 has largely underperformed the S&P 500 in the past few weeks.

    “The consensus is that the Fed will cut 25 bps, but there is of course a chance that they end up cutting 50 bps,” Johnston said. Small caps “would get a significant rally if it was 50 and still rally with a very dovish 25,” he noted.

    Stock markets are likely to trade sideways until US employment data show clear signs of either weakening or strengthening, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists.

    The team led by Michael Hartnett said there’s several market factors at play to support both bullish and bearish narratives. While the optimists say technology and semiconductor stocks — including this year’s leader Nvidia Corp. — have bounced off key technical levels, the pessimists warn that “nothing good happens” when bond yields and banking stocks decline at the same time.

    Data Friday showed US consumer sentiment rose to a four-month high as short-term inflation expectations fell to the lowest level since the end of 2020.

    A steeper pace of cuts aligns with increasing worries about a more pronounced slowdown in the labor market. While the latest inflation prints showed a slight uptick in August, the core personal consumption expenditures index — which is the inflation metric the Fed watches — is expected to be softer.

    Countdown to Fed Meeting:

    Yes, it is an uphill climb, but I think the Federal Reserve will cut its policy rate by 50 basis points at its upcoming meeting. The case for doing more upfront is strong.

    A popular reason to not go 50 is the message it would send. “The Fed must know something the rest of us don’t” or so the thinking goes. I don’t buy this for a second.

    There are risks to the market if the Fed only goes 25, especially given the unlikely threshold of a “dovish cut” being met. So, a “how-the-market-would-respond” argument does not feel compelling. My own sense is that markets would welcome the move.

    Just when we put the 50 basis-point cut next week on the back burner, the talk of 50 has risen from the dead.

    While we originally called for a 50 basis-point cut — and think a 50 cut is the right call — we just can’t see this Fed who is so entrenched in backward-looking numbers, getting to 50. Jerome Powell’s consensus view is that he will not have enough votes to get 50. Hence his strategy will be to go 25 and then be uber dovish, at the presser. That is what we think, rather than we want.

    Judging by price action, investors are certainly looking for a dovish rate decision. This could be in the form of a surprise 50 basis-point cut — or 25 basis-point cut, with a strong hint of at least one 50 basis-point reduction in the remaining two meetings later this year.

    It is all about the economic growth now and jobs market. You would think that after the hotter inflation data that the implied probability of a 50 basis-point cut would have dropped to zero. In fact, it did fall close to zero, but it has since bounced back and we are back to square one. This implies that there is an equally split chances of a 25 basis-point or 50 basis-point cut next week.

    And this is the issue: Now that market is back pricing as much likelihood on the 50 as 25 basis-point cut out of the gates, then anything but 50 will disappointment market pricing.

    We maintain that a quarter-point initial cut is the path of least resistance, although it is clear that 50 basis points is on the table and will be part of the Fed’s conversation. We’re cognizant that CPI and PPI are likely to translate into a more benign move in core-PCE. As the Fed’s favored measure, the overall inflation profile will appear less concerning for policymakers and thereby allow the FOMC to focus on the labor market.

    The decision to cut between 25 vs 50 basis points could be closer than most people anticipate. In our view, the dot plot will be the most prominent part of the Fed’s guidance next week, along with Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference. Our expectation for the Fed’s forward guidance is for it to lean broadly dovish.

    Treasuries will focus on the size of the cut, the dot plot, and Powell’s remarks as key guideposts. Given our expectation for the Fed to send a generally dovish tone while delivering a 25bp rate cut to start the cycle, rates can continue to rally and the curve can continue to bull steepen. We favor buying dips in duration.

    Corporate Highlights:

    • Adobe Inc. delivered an outlook that failed to quell investor impatience for new artificial intelligence tools to start generating cash.

    • Oracle Corp. said annual revenue will rise to at least $104 billion in fiscal 2029, an optimistic signal on the growth prospects of the software maker’s cloud infrastructure business. The company’s shares jumped to reach record highs.

    • Boeing Co. factory workers walked off the job for the first time in 16 years, halting manufacturing across the planemaker’s Seattle hub after members of its largest union voted overwhelmingly to reject a contract offer and go on strike.

    • Energy company Halliburton Co. was downgraded by RBC Capital Markets downgraded to sector perform from outperform.

    • Furniture retailer RH reported second-quarter revenue and profit that topped Wall Street expectations. The company touted an improvement in customer demand in recent months, though it cut its sales forecast for the year, saying revenue will lag demand as it adjusts its assortment.

    Some of the main moves in markets:

    Stocks

    • The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 10:51 a.m. New York time

    • The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%

    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%

    • The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.9%

    • The MSCI World Index rose 0.7%

    • Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.4%

    • The Russell 2000 Index rose 2.2%

    • S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index rose 1%

    Currencies

    • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%

    • The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1089

    • The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3153

    • The Japanese yen rose 0.8% to 140.69 per dollar

    Cryptocurrencies

    • Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $58,346.76

    • Ether rose 0.5% to $2,363.69

    Bonds

    • The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.67%

    • Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.16%

    • Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.77%

    Commodities

    • West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.6% to $70.07 a barrel

    • Spot gold rose 0.8% to $2,578.23 an ounce

    This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

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  • Global Stocks Advance as Tech Rally Continues: Markets Wrap

    Global Stocks Advance as Tech Rally Continues: Markets Wrap

    (Bloomberg) — Stocks rallied, tracking gains in Asian markets as a tech-fueled rebound spread globally.

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    Europe’s Stoxx 600 index jumped 1.2%, the most since mid-August, led by gains in the technology sector. Futures for the S&P 500 were up 0.2%. Treasuries were steady and the dollar was flat. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed the most in almost a month, boosted by gains in the tech-heavy markets of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

    Risk appetite has returned after the world’s largest technology companies spurred a stock-market bounce on Wall Street on Wednesday. Focus is also on the path for interest rates, with the European Central Bank poised to cut again on Thursday. US inflation data for August supported bets for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, but fueled speculation officials will move gradually.

    Traders have swung between optimism that the Fed will guide the US economy to a soft landing and fear that the central bank has left it too late to cut rates. While swaps have now priced in a 25 basis point rate reduction next week, debate over the path for further reductions continues, and some investors say markets have overpriced expectations.

    “Stocks will probably rally more with a 25 bps cut than 50,” because the latter will signal weaker growth, Timothy Moe, chief Asia Pacific equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said on Bloomberg TV.

    In corporate news, OpenAI is in talks to raise $6.5 billion from investors at a valuation of $150 billion, according to people familiar with the situation. Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said the limited supply of their products has frustrated some customers and raised tensions.

    Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. is discussing improving its takeover proposal for Seven & i Holdings Co. with the goal of convincing the Japanese convenience store operator to start engaging in discussions, people with knowledge of the matter said.

    In Japan, the Nikkei index halted a seven-day losing streak as the US inflation print pulled the yen down from its strongest level against the dollar since December. A region-wide gauge of tech stocks rose more than 3% after Nvidia jumped 8.2% overnight, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. was among top gainers on the regional index.

    Oil extended gains from Wednesday as Hurricane Francine ripped through key oil-producing zones in the Gulf of Mexico, prompting traders to cover bearish bets. Gold traded above $2,515 per ounce.

    Key events this week:

    • ECB rate decision, Thursday

    • US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday

    • Eurozone industrial production, Friday

    • Japan industrial production, Friday

    • U. Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

    Some of the main moves in markets:

    Stocks

    • The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 1.2% as of 8:11 a.m. London time

    • S&P 500 futures rose 0.1%

    • Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2%

    • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%

    • The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.5%

    • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 1.3%

    Currencies

    • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed

    • The euro was little changed at $1.1010

    • The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 142.79 per dollar

    • The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1282 per dollar

    • The British pound was little changed at $1.3045

    Cryptocurrencies

    • Bitcoin rose 0.8% to $57,932.51

    • Ether rose 0.5% to $2,359.36

    Bonds

    • The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.67%

    • Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.13%

    • Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 3.78%

    Commodities

    • Brent crude rose 1.4% to $71.59 a barrel

    • Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,515.43 an ounce

    This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

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  • Chinese Stocks on Verge of Five-Year Low as Recovery Hopes Fade

    Chinese Stocks on Verge of Five-Year Low as Recovery Hopes Fade

    (Bloomberg) — Chinese stocks are on the brink of falling to a five-year low seen in February as bearish sentiment grips the market amid a lack of earnings and economic recovery.

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    The CSI 300 Index closed down 1.2% on Monday, taking its slide from this year’s high in May to more than 13%. A further decline would take the benchmark to levels unseen since early 2019, suggesting years of policy efforts to revive the economy and prop up share prices have proved futile. The yuan weakened.

    The market has been stuck in a cycle where stocks would plumb new lows after a brief rebound triggered by short-lived optimism. The government’s piecemeal approach to stimulus has failed to fix a crisis of confidence, with deflationary pressure, anemic consumption and an extended property slump combining to erode hopes of a near-term economic recovery.

    “The ongoing bearishness in Chinese stocks is largely being driven by deteriorating short-term dynamics, particularly the deflationary pressures and signs of weakening consumer demand,” said Billy Leung, an investment strategist at Global X Management in Sydney. “Unless we see a significant policy shift, especially around fiscal support for social welfare or housing, it’s likely this sentiment could persist.”

    The CSI 300 Index rebounded 16% from February through mid-May, as state funds purchased billions of dollars worth of exchange-traded funds and regulators clamped down on short sales and quant trades. Its slide since then is just another example of how policies have failed to address the fundamental ailments that have been hurting sentiment.

    Even long-time China bulls UBS Global Wealth Management, Nomura Holdings Inc., and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have downgraded the country’s equities in recent weeks, citing concerns ranging from a drop in property-led demand to underwhelming stimulus measures and geopolitical tensions ahead of the US elections.

    The equities slump has coincided with a growing consensus among the world’s largest banks that the country would miss its around 5% growth target this year. In the latest blow to sentiment, China’s consumer prices rose less than expected last month, adding to signs policymakers are struggling to get households spending.

    China’s faltering economy has hit global commodity demand as well. Iron ore sank below $90 a ton for the first time since 2022 as industrial commodities faced sustained pressure from tepid Chinese demand. The onshore yuan weakened as much as 0.2% against the dollar on Monday.

    To be sure, some investors say Chinese equities’ ultra-cheap valuations offer good risk-reward opportunity. The MSCI China Index is trading at less than nine times forward price-to-earnings, compared to a ratio of 24 for its emerging market rival India.

    The CSI 300 is near levels seen during the February rout, when exit orders at structured products like snowball derivatives and quantitative funds exacerbated a selloff, and investors rotated into Indian stocks in a major shift in EM portfolios.

    While there are some stock-specific opportunities, “even the long-term Chinese champions are not immune to the persistently weak China economic backdrop with limited visibility of improvement,” said Vivian Lin Thurston, a portfolio manager for William Blair Investment Management in Chicago. “Domestic policy trends and geopolitical risks may continue to pressure the multiples of Chinese equities structurally.”

    Earnings per share for the MSCI China Index fell 4.5% from the year earlier in the second quarter, its worst in five quarters, according to data from Bloomberg Intelligence. Underscoring the contraction was weakening support from the country’s eight biggest tech firms.

    Down nearly 7% this year, the benchmark CSI 300 Index ranks among the world’s worst-performing major gauges and is headed for a record fourth year of losses.

    –With assistance from Winnie Hsu.

    (Updates with prices as of market close.)

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  • TD chief says probes show need for better staff accountability

    TD chief says probes show need for better staff accountability

    Toronto-Dominion Bank employees need to take more accountability and act with more urgency on risks, Chief Executive Officer Bharat Masrani said, after the Canadian bank was rocked by sweeping money-laundering investigations in its US business. “The big lesson is you can’t take anything for granted,” Masrani said Wednesday at a financial-industry conference hosted by Bank […]

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  • European Stocks Rise as Price Data Lift Rate Hopes: Markets Wrap

    European Stocks Rise as Price Data Lift Rate Hopes: Markets Wrap

    (Bloomberg) — European stocks are closing in on a fourth week of gains, lifted by the prospect of lower interest rates after inflation in some of the region’s biggest economies moderated further.

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    The Stoxx Europe 600 index added 0.2% at the open, bringing its advance for the week to 1.4% and just shy of a record high. French inflation eased to its lowest level since July 2021 — bolstering the case for the European Central Bank to continue cutting interest rates after similar slowdowns in Germany and Spain. Aggregate data for the region is due later Friday.

    US equity futures gained after a flat day on Wall Street, with Nvidia Corp.’s 6% drop weighing on stocks. Traders are awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge later Friday.

    Bets for a Fed rate cut continue to dominate global markets, after data showed that the central bank has managed to tame inflation without the economy tumbling into recession. US output grew at a slightly stronger pace in the second quarter than initially reported, reflecting an upward revision to consumer spending that more than offset weaker activity in other categories.

    “The US economy looks like it’s moving from very strong to strong,” said Thomas Taw, BlackRock’s head of APAC investment strategy, told Bloomberg TV. “The data will continue to weaken, but you kind of have to marry that off with how much is inflation going to weaken in the US.”

    Expectations for monetary easing have put Treasuries on course for their longest monthly winning streak in three years. But the wagers have weighed on the dollar, with a Bloomberg gauge of the currency set for its worst monthly performance this year. The dollar was steady on Friday.

    Aside from the core PCE data due later in the session, the big focus for financial markets will be next week’s US employment numbers. Nonfarm payrolls figures on Sept. 6 will be scrutinized for clues as to whether the Fed will cut rates in September, after Chair Jerome Powell opened the door to easing at his Jackson Hole speech earlier this month.

    US interest-rate cuts are likely to have knock-on effects for central banks the world over. In Asia analysts expect authorities in Indonesia and India to follow suit and potentially lower borrowing costs.

    “The soothing Jackson Hole dovish messages continue to resonate, while focus turns to the US employment report to assess if a soft landing remains on track,” Barclays Plc analysts including Gabriel Casillas wrote in a note.

    In the commodities space, gold edged lower while oil extended gains on positive US economic data and worsening supply disruptions in Libya. Iron ore edged higher after rallying by about 10% in 10 days to breach $100 a ton.

    Key events this week:

    • Eurozone CPI, unemployment, Friday

    • US personal income, spending, PCE; consumer sentiment, Friday

    Some of the main moves in markets:

    Stocks

    • The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2% as of 8:14 a.m. London time

    • S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%

    • Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4%

    • Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed

    • The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.7%

    • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.5%

    Currencies

    • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed

    • The euro was little changed at $1.1076

    • The Japanese yen was little changed at 144.96 per dollar

    • The offshore yuan rose 0.1% to 7.0851 per dollar

    • The British pound was little changed at $1.3173

    Cryptocurrencies

    • Bitcoin fell 0.2% to $59,416.42

    • Ether fell 0.4% to $2,530.18

    Bonds

    • The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.86%

    • Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.26%

    • Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.00%

    Commodities

    This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

    –With assistance from Winnie Zhu.

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    ©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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  • Asian Stocks Rise as Investors Count Down to Cuts: Markets Wrap

    Asian Stocks Rise as Investors Count Down to Cuts: Markets Wrap

    (Bloomberg) — Asian stocks advanced for a third session and the yen strengthened to a three-week high as the prospect of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts on the horizon stoked sentiment.

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    Shares in Australia and Hong Kong climbed on Monday, benefiting from Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, when he said the “time has come” to pivot to monetary easing. The Fed’s dovish tilt also lifted the yen against the dollar, as Asian-domiciled funds added to existing short positions on the greenback. Japanese stocks declined due to the stronger currency, while contracts for US equities were steady.

    The positioning for lower US borrowing costs is rippling through financial markets, with global equities trading just shy of an all-time high, while the greenback is falling and investors are piling into sovereign debt. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries slipped two basis points to 3.78% on Monday.

    Haven buying in response to rising tensions in the Middle East was an additional driver for currencies. Oil advanced 0.7% as the region braced for escalating conflict after an Israeli strike on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon.

    “It should be risk-on,” said Chamath De Silva, head of fixed income at Betashares Holdings in Sydney. “Powell has confirmed that we’ll shortly be entering an easing cycle and that the fight against inflation is done, so I expect a bit of an everything rally, stocks and bonds both performing well.”

    The Bloomberg Asia Dollar Index kicked off the week by advancing to its highest since January. The Korean won climbed, while Singapore’s dollar advanced to its strongest in almost a decade as traders weighed the difference between the local monetary authority’s relatively hawkish policy outlook compared with that of the Fed.

    Powell’s keenly awaited Jackson Hole speech constitutes a turning point in the Fed’s two-year battle to slow inflation, and means officials are likely to cut the benchmark interest rate from its highest in more than two decades. While the world’s largest economy is showing signs of cooling — warranting a pivot — there’s no sign yet of an outright contraction.

    “My view is that the US is heading toward a soft landing” and Asian exports are doing well, said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. “I think we’re set to see a strong rally, rebound in Asian currencies during this Fed easing cycle.”

    China MLF

    The People’s Bank of China left the rate on its one-year policy loans, or the medium-term lending facility, at 2.3%, after a slashing the rate by 20 basis points in July. The PBOC has signaled that it’s de-emphasizing the medium-term lending facility’s role as a policy tool, while elevating the seven-day reverse repurchase rate to greater prominence.

    The decision underscores Beijing’s cautious approach in supporting the economy, even as China reported a rare contraction in bank loans amid weak demand. The PBOC has been walking a fine line of stimulating growth and cooling a government-bond buying spree to limit financial risks in recent months.

    Reflecting the lackluster performance of the economy, the CSI 300 Index of stocks slipped 0.4% on Monday.

    Authorities in China have also initiated stress tests with financial institutions on their bond investments, to make sure they can handle any market volatility should a record-breaking rally reverse, according to state-run media.

    Elsewhere, gold steadied near a record high after Powell affirmed expectations of cuts. The precious metal has surged more than 20% this year in a blistering rally driven by Fed hopes, haven demand due to geopolitical risks, as well as buying from central banks and Asian consumers.

    Key events this week:

    • Singapore industrial production, Monday

    • US durable goods, Monday

    • China industrial profits, Tuesday

    • Germany GDP, Tuesday

    • Hong Kong trade, Tuesday

    • Australia CPI, Wednesday,

    • Nvidia Corp. earnings, Wednesday

    • US GDP, Initial Jobless Claims Thursday

    • US personal income, spending, PCE price data, Friday

    Some of the main moves in markets:

    Stocks

    • S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 11:25 a.m. Tokyo time

    • Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) fell 1.3%

    • Japan’s Topix fell 1.2%

    • Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.5%

    • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.8%

    • The Shanghai Composite fell 0.3%

    • Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.2%

    Currencies

    • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed

    • The euro was little changed at $1.1191

    • The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 143.71 per dollar

    • The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1167 per dollar

    • The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6789

    Cryptocurrencies

    • Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $63,960.98

    • Ether fell 1.3% to $2,734.43

    Bonds

    • The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 3.79%

    • Japan’s 10-year yield declined 2.5 basis points to 0.875%

    • Australia’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 3.88%

    Commodities

    This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

    –With assistance from Georgina McKay.

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    ©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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  • Walmart’s $3.6 Billion JD.com Sale Fuels China Tech Slump

    Walmart’s $3.6 Billion JD.com Sale Fuels China Tech Slump

    (Bloomberg) — Walmart Inc. raised about $3.6 billion by selling its stake in Chinese e-commerce firm JD.com Inc., winding down an eight-year partnership that appears to be paying diminishing returns amid a challenging landscape for Chinese tech giants.

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    The US retailer sold 144.5 million shares for $24.95 apiece, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified because the information is private. That’s a discount of 11% to Tuesday’s close in the US, according to Bloomberg calculations, and near the lower end of an indicative $24.85 to $25.85 price range.

    JD.com’s Hong Kong-listed shares fell as much as 12% on Wednesday, leading a broader selloff in Chinese e-commerce and tech stocks. Walmart is refining its strategy in the world’s second-largest economy, where its long-standing e-commerce partner is struggling along with traditional rivals Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Temu-owner PDD Holdings Inc.

    The US firm has built a mature e-commerce and delivery system in China for both Sam’s Club and its hypermarkets business and is focusing on its own offerings, a person familiar with the matter said, speaking on condition of anonymity. The deal also comes as a property crisis, market volatility and uncertain job prospects take a toll on Chinese consumption.

    “I expect Walmart will be disappointed with the horse they backed,” said Mark Tanner, managing director at marketing agency China Skinny. “It doesn’t feel like the original ambitions have quite panned out as planned at the time of acquisition.”

    Morgan Stanley is the broker-dealer handling the offering, according to people familiar with the situation. JD.com also bought back $390 million of its shares today.

    JD.com Leads Losses in China Tech Stocks on Walmart Stake Sale

    The sale will enable Walmart to “better focus on the country’s strong development” including Sam’s Club and its hypermarket business, and “allocate funds to other priorities”, according to a statement from the company. The retailer said it will continue to cooperate with JD.com, describing the Chinese e-commerce firm as a “precious partner”. JD.com has confidence in future collaboration between the two companies, it said in a statement. Morgan Stanley didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

    Walmart’s Sam’s Club franchise has been a bright light for the company, making it the only hypermarket chain to post sales growth last year among the top 5 players, according to China Chain Store & Franchise Association. In China, the unit offers premium goods with a membership model that’s now being copied by rivals, while the company’s other basic hypermarkets are struggling along with competitors. Walmart is likely to redeploy the capital from the sale to expand its own stores, according to a report from Citigroup Inc.

    Meanwhile, China’s biggest online retailers are trying to reverse their slumping fortunes as economic uncertainty and consumers’ shifting shopping habits weigh on earnings. Last week, Alibaba — long a barometer for the industry — surprised investors when it revealed its main commerce business actually shrank in the June quarter.

    JD.com’s June-quarter results beat expectations — even though revenue grew a mere 1.2%. That extended a string of single-digit quarters dating back to 2022, a period of malaise that’s halved its market value since the start of last year.

    The Walmart-JD break also follows a pattern of online and offline retail businesses dissolving their partnerships, as earlier ambitions to seamlessly merge the physical and cyber consumer experiences failed to be realized. Earlier this year, Bloomberg reported that Alibaba is considering selling its InTime department store arm.

    The share sale would mark the winding down of a partnership between the two companies that started when Walmart acquired a 5% stake in the Chinese company in 2016. That deal also involved JD.com taking over Walmart’s Yihaodian online marketplace, which focused on selling groceries to higher-end female shoppers in major Chinese cities, the companies said then.

    –With assistance from Edwin Chan.

    (Updates with Walmart statement in seventh paragraph)

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  • Revolut says secondary share sale valued firm at $45B | Bank Automation News

    Revolut says secondary share sale valued firm at $45B | Bank Automation News

    Revolut Ltd. said a secondary share sale that allowed the company to give employees liquidity for their stakes valued the company at $45 billion.

    The round was led by investors Coatue, D1 Capital Partners and Tiger Global, according to a statement. Morgan Stanley served as sole placement agent on the deal.

    The new valuation is up from a $33 billion price tag that Revolut garnered in 2021. Unlike many of its rivals across the fintech landscape, Revolut hasn’t had to raise money in recent years, allowing it to avoid the sharp declines in valuation that many of its peers suffered as high interest rates forced investors to reconsider their support for the space.

    Klarna Bank AB, for instance, was last valued at $6.7 billion valuation in a 2022 funding round, which was a far cry from the $45.6 billion valuation it received from investors just a year earlier. The Stockholm-based company is also in early talks with investors to gauge their interest in buying up existing shares of the company on the secondary market.

    Revolut’s announcement caps a process where the company was in talks with investors to sell about $500 million of existing shares, Bloomberg News previously reported. It also comes just weeks after Revolut received a long-awaited banking license from UK regulators.

    Coatue has a “high level of conviction” in its investment in Revolut, Philippe Laffont, founder and portfolio manager for the investment firm, said in the statement. Revolut Chief Executive Officer Nik Storonsky said he was “delighted” to provide employees with the liquidity.

    — By Aisha S Gani (Bloomberg News)

    Bloomberg News

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