Tag: Bitcoin

The recent U.S. government shutdown caused a liquidity crunch, adding pressure and pulling billions from the financial system.

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below $95,000 as U.S.-centric selling pressures and liquidity tightening converge to weigh heavily on the market.

Analysts are now warning that the drop is not a mere price fluctuation but a structural correction shaped by long-term holder profit-taking, fiscal constraints, and short-term investor stress.

A Perfect Storm of U.S. Selling Pressure

According to an analysis from XWIN Research Japan, the Coinbase Premium Index has been negative for weeks, meaning BTC is trading at a lower price on the U.S.-based exchange compared to international platforms, a clear signal that American investors are selling more aggressively than their global counterparts. This is creating a repeated pattern where Bitcoin recovers during Asian and European hours, only to reverse sharply when U.S. markets open.

The selling is not limited to short-term speculators. On-chain data shows that long-term holders across various cohorts, from those holding for six months to as long as seven years, are all taking profits at the same time. As noted by analysts like Will Clemente and confirmed by Fidelity, this widespread selling is a strong indicator of year-end tax optimization, with U.S. investors locking in gains to finalize their 2025 tax positions.

Furthermore, the recent U.S. government shutdown created a significant liquidity crunch, with the temporary halt in federal spending causing the government to run a surplus that pulled billions of dollars out of the financial system.

XWIN suggested that this, combined with fading hopes for a December interest rate cut, weakened risk appetite across U.S. markets, dragging down equities, crypto-related stocks, and Bitcoin in unison.

Market Psychology and the Search for a Bottom

The current downturn is pushing the market into a painful but necessary cleansing phase. As analyst MorenoDV_ explained, the market is testing the resolve of short-term investors. They noted that the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is hovering near 0.9, a level that historically signals capitulation.

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When this ratio falls below 1, it means the average recent buyer is holding at a loss, and a break below 0.9 could trigger a final wave of selling that often forms a durable market bottom.

Traders are now watching key price levels for signs of stability. As of November 14, analysts identified major on-chain support around $95,900, where a significant number of BTC were last moved. A decisive break below this threshold could see the price quickly descend toward the next support zones near $82,000.

The rejection of the flagship cryptocurrency at the $107,000 resistance level earlier this week confirmed the bearish trend, with the asset now trading below its 200-day moving average, a widely watched indicator of long-term momentum.

While the mood is pessimistic, the intense selling pressure from U.S. investors is viewed by many as a temporary, seasonal phenomenon.

XWIN Research Japan says bullish headlines can’t offset LTH selloffs and fading conviction in the current cycle.

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed toward $110,000 over the weekend but failed to get there, despite a wave of optimistic news ranging from Donald Trump’s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” to signs of a U.S. government shutdown deal.

According to new research by XWIN Research Japan, a blend of macro pressures, long-term holder selloffs, and weak sentiment has created a resistance zone between $107,000 and $118,000 that bullish headlines alone can’t break.

A Rally Meets Resistance

The recent price move began on November 9, when BTC jumped from under $102,000 to nearly $104,000. This uptick coincided with a promise from President Trump for a $2,000 per-person tariff dividend for many Americans, a proposal that sparked memories of the stimulus checks that preceded the 2020-2021 crypto market expansion.

The optimism continued into November 10, with prices pushing past $107,000 amid hopes for a resolution to the U.S. government shutdown. However, the rally lost steam soon after, going back down to the $105,000 level, with XWIN Research identifying several immediate headwinds facing the flagship cryptocurrency.

“First, macro pressure: although the Fed cut rates in October, Chair Powell warned another cut in December isn’t guaranteed. That dampened easing expectations and triggered selling across risk assets,” the report noted.

Furthermore, while the Trump administration appears friendly to the industry, state-level regulatory crackdowns are still creating uncertainty and discouraging institutional participation.

However, the biggest barrier XWIN Research identified was on-chain selling from long-term holders (LTHs). The firm pinpointed the $107,000 to $118,000 range as a major resistance zone, noting that LTHs have been increasing their exchange inflows to nearly double the normal levels, creating a friction of supply that absorbs buying pressure.

The LTH-SOPR metric, which tracks profit-taking by these investors, has fallen significantly since July and now sits near 1.6, which XWIN Research interpreted as “reduced conviction among holders, selling into strength but with less profit margin.”

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A Market at a Crossroads

While the immediate picture is one of struggle, certain market metrics suggest a potential inflection point is forming. On-chain analyst MorenoDV_ pointed out that a key liquidity pattern has reappeared.

According to them, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has returned to its lower historical range, a zone that marked cycle bottoms in mid-2021 and throughout 2024. This indicates a growing pool of stablecoin “dry powder” on the sidelines, historically a precursor to significant market recoveries as that capital rotates into assets like Bitcoin.

At the same time, the market is showing classic signs of a liquidity-testing phase, with BTC’s short-term volatility spiking above its 30-day average, a condition that often comes before a major directional move.

This environment has analysts divided, with some, like Doctor Profit, maintaining a cautious stance, warning that a breakdown below the key “Golden Line” support near $99,200 is “only a matter of time” and could erase bullish momentum.