The Bitcoin price returned to its sideways price action following a powerful surge into new yearly highs. The cryptocurrency seems poised for further gains if bulls can hold a critical level.
As of this writing, BTC trades at $36,370, with a 2% loss in the last 24 hours. Over the previous week, the number one crypto by market capitalization recorded a 5% gain, while the sentiment in the sector looks mixed, with BTC recording losses as Ethereum and Solana stayed strong in the same period.
Bitcoin Likely To Bounce If This Scenario Plays Out
According to a pseudonym analyst, the liquidity in the Bitcoin spot market, measured by a “Liquidity Map,” has been allocated to the downside. This metric gauges the amount of leverage in the BTC/USDT trading pair.
The chart below shows that BTC is trading close to a huge liquidation cluster. Overleverage positions create these levels and are often tapped by big players to exploit the liquidity.
BTC whales chase liquidity, moving prices towards the biggest pools of overleveraged positions. If the $36,300 gets tapped, the next level of interest is located to the upside between $36,961 and $37,700. The analyst stated:
Big clusters at $36K and ~$37K. Would expect there to be quite some positions build up around that 37K region mainly as we chopped around it all day yesterday. Bears are back in control on the LTF (Low Timeframe) below $36.3K I’d say.
BTC’s price liquidation map shows significant liquidity to the downside. Source: DaanCrypto on X
BTC Hits Local Top?
On the other hand, the Bitcoin price could trend sideways between $36,300 and the high of its current range. Additional data from crypto analytics firm Bitfinex Alpha indicates that historical data hints at bad news for optimistic traders.
The firm advises caution for traders as the liquidity gap in the Bitcoin spot market increases. Per recent data, BTC Short-Term Holders Realized Price (STH RP) bought the cryptocurrency at an average price of $30,380, which could incentivize these investors to take profit at current levels.
This is the first time STH has had an opportunity to make a big profit on their BTC holdings since April 2022 and December 2022. Historically, a monthly change in STH RP exceeding $2,000 often signals local peaks, particularly post-recovery in bear markets, as seen in the chart below.
Source: Bitfinex Alpha
Concurrently, a negative monthly shift in LTH RP usually implies long-term holders are offloading their Bitcoin. The convergence of a $2,000 increase in monthly STH RP and a decline in LTH RP suggests a high likelihood of a local peak in Bitcoin’s price.
One of the oldest cryptocurrencies and one of the largest by market cap, XRP may be considered less mainstream than, say, Bitcoin or even the altcoin Solana, but its dedicated fans, dubbed the XRP Army, fervently advocate for the token—in both good times and bad.
And on Monday, many of them suffered whiplash.
A report by The Block of a BlackRock-backed XRP fund triggered a nearly 13% price spike before it was determined to be based on a falsified document. The fake filing, for a supposed “iShares XRP Trust,” was found on Delaware’s state website for listing investment trusts that are incorporated by the state. But, as confirmed by Bloomberg, BlackRock didn’t create the filing, and as of Tuesday it remained unclear how it was created and posted.
Almost immediately after the news was debunked, XRP shed those gains, and on Tuesday was trading at about 64 cents, down less than 3% over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko.
It’s the second time in less than a month that a fake announcement, amplified by Crypto Twitter, fueled a massive rally: CoinTelegraph posted an announcement on X, formerly Twitter, claiming that the SEC had approved BlackRock’s application to create a spot Bitcoin ETF. The news was quickly debunked, but it still pushed Bitcoin above the $30,000 mark.
Each is reminiscent of an instance from 2021 when a fake press release claiming Walmart would begin accepting Litecoin shot the little-known crypto token up 33% before the company cleared things up.
Despite Monday’s false start, XRP is still up almost 30% over the last 30 days and more than 67% year over year, according to CoinGecko.
Recent positive news for Ripple, the company associated with the token, has helped lift its price. Earlier this year, the firm notched a victory against the SEC after a judge ruled XRP was not a security in all instances. The SEC later dropped charges it had filed against two Ripple executives, CEO Brad Garlinghouse and executive chairman and cofounder Chris Larsen.
Any further developments, such as an appeal by either Ripple or the SEC, are likely far away. Crypto-focused attorney Fred Rispoli said in a post on X that a ruling on an appeal would have “no chance” of being approved until 2026.
Still, some investors are hopeful that a settlement between Ripple and the regulator could come sooner and push XRP’s price up further. Others have speculated that the fake BlackRock filing was merely posted early and it could still materialize, although there is no evidence to support such a claim.
For now, investors in XRP and other cryptocurrencies alike are closely watching the SEC’s impending approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, which Bloomberg analysts say has a 90% chance by early January.
Popular crypto analyst Don Alt has joined the bandwagon of predictions pertaining to Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Don Alt recently took to social media platform X to convey a strong bullish Bitcoin price sentiment, issuing a forecast that the cryptocurrency is on the verge of going supersonic to $60,000 in the coming months.
Even a $100,000 price point is not out of the books, according to this analyst. The catalyst for this potential liftoff? The long-awaited approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF in the US.
Bitcoin’s Supersonic Rally to $60,000
Don Alt is known for accurately predicting Bitcoin price points in the past and correctly pinpointed the crypto’s lowest price point in 2022. Now, Don Alt is of the notion that Bitcoin is poised for a massive price surge in the coming months that could send it soaring to $60,000.
It’s no news that this recent rally is due to the excitement around the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the analyst thinks this rally will continue until a $60,000 price point. The digital currency is already up by 121% since the beginning of the year and has broken multiple yearly highs in the past month.
The longer the SEC takes to approve the applications, the higher the rally will continue in anticipation. However, the analyst took a different line of thinking and considered the likelihood of a price decrease after the approval.
Don Alt mentioned that the approval might turn into a “sell the news moment,” implying that there might be many more bears waiting to take advantage of the price jump to sell off than the market thinks.
“Now, after the ETF gets approved, things might get a bit tricky. It could be a ‘sell-the-news’ moment, or maybe not. To be honest, I don’t know,” Don Alt said.
This line of reasoning resonates with economist Peter Schiff, who warned that approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs might lead to a Bitcoin price decline. Schiff also believes that there could be a larger number of people sitting on their assets in anticipation of an opportunity to sell at a higher price.
On-chain data shows that large investors have been selling off in light of profit-taking. Bitcoin whales and sharks have sold around 60,000 BTC, worth about $2.2 billion in the past week.
Bitcoin Price To $100,000?
Don Alt dismissed bearish sentiments, particularly those waiting for a Bitcoin pullback to $12,000. “BTC is more likely to go to $100,000 here than it is to go back to $12,000,” he said.
The SEC is slated to decide on 12 ETF applications by November 17, although they might not be approved until January 2024.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s rally has slowed down, and the asset has consolidated just below and above the $37,000 price point.
The fourth Bitcoin halving is fast approaching and is estimated to be just 157 days away. In the meantime, there is a notable tightness occurring in the supply of Bitcoin that has now reached unprecedented levels in its history.
Glassnode’s latest report revealed that the ‘available supply’ is at historic lows, and rates of ‘supply storage’ surpass current issuance by a factor of up to 2.4x.
Tightness of Bitcoin Supply
The report talks about three pivotal stages, each providing valuable insights into the Bitcoin market. The initial one revolves around the ‘Available and Active’ Supply, which gauges the volume of actively circulating BTC available for trading.
Significant metrics in this category encompass Short-Term Holder Supply, which is currently at multi-year lows, standing at 2.33 million BTC. This cohort encompasses coins up to 155 days old, which statistically are the most likely to be spent.
Additional indicators of ‘hotter’ supply involve coins less than a month old (1.39 million BTC) and Futures Open Interest (0.41 million BTC), serving as a representation of ‘supply exposure’ in derivative markets. Collectively, this volume of ‘hot supply’ constitutes roughly 5% to 10% of the circulating supply actively involved in day-to-day trading.
Transitioning to the second stage, the measurement of rates of the ‘supply storage and saving’ phase revealed a decrease in available supply, indicating a noteworthy movement of coins away from exchanges and active trading, with a visible trend toward cold storage and long-term investor wallets.
The accumulation rates of all entities holding less than 100 BTC have exceeded new issuance since February 2022. This marked the longest and most sustained period in history.
The third stage zeroes in on analyzing the impact of capital flows on market valuation. Upon leveraging Realized Cap as a proxy to comprehend capital inflows, outflows, and the rotation of assets, it was found that Bitcoin supply and liquidity are fairly tight.
Bitcoin Halving Strategy
The halving stands out as one of the most anticipated events on the Bitcoin calendar. While it occurs every 210,000 blocks and slashes the rate of new coin issuance by 50%, the exact date and time are unknown due to the “natural variability and probabilistic nature of mining blocks.”
However, those who trade around these halving cycles potentially rake better returns than those who buy and hold. This was speculated by trading veteran Plan B, who recently noted that most Bitcoin price surges occurred in proximity to the three preceding halving events. According to his estimates, traders actively involved specifically during Bitcoin halving events might have experienced returns of up to 2,500%.
ALL bitcoin price increase occurred around the 3 halvings (H-6m / H+18m). Being in the market only in these 3 periods and out during the rest would have increased a $5 investment to $130k (purple line) instead of $37k buy&hold (blue line). NFA but fun to see what 4th halving… pic.twitter.com/TXQAszVZuz
Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency, has seen a significant price increase over the past month. The recent bullish rush in the crypto market, coupled with BlackRock’s involvement, has pushed ETH to its year-to-date high of $2,139.
Ethereum Outshines Bitcoin And Altcoins
According to market data provider Kaiko, ETH has outperformed BTC and many altcoins in recent weeks, signaling a shift in market dynamics.
Kaiko’s report highlights how ETH struggled to gain momentum over the past year, despite successful upgrades such as The Merge in April.
However, the sentiment around ETH changed dramatically when BlackRock filed for a spot ETH exchange-traded fund (ETF), leading to a reversal in the ETH to Bitcoin (BTC) ratio.
The impact on the market was substantial, with ETH prices surging above $2,000 for the first time since April. Additionally, daily spot trade volumes reached $7 billion, the highest level since the collapse of FTX.
The ETH ETF narrative provided further impetus to the ongoing rally, amplified by improved global risk sentiment and declining US Treasury yields.
The dominance of altcoin + ETH volume relative to BTC has risen to 60%, marking its highest level in over a year. During bull rallies, altcoin volume typically increases relative to BTC.
This surge in demand has also led to rising leverage, as reflected in the recovery of ETH open interest to early August levels. Notably, BTC open interest has declined over the past month due to liquidations on Binance, resulting in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) outpacing Binance as the largest BTC futures market.
Furthermore, ETH funding rates, a gauge of sentiment and bullish demand, have reached their highest levels in over a year, indicating a significant shift in sentiment. In November, both BTC and ETH 30-day volatility rose to 40% and 50% respectively, following a multi-year low of around 15% during the summer months.
Crypto Expert Predicts ETH Breakout
Renowned crypto expert Michael Van de Poppe believes that ETH is on the cusp of a significant breakthrough. According to Van de Poppe, if Ethereum manages to surpass the crucial $2,150 resistance level, it could signify the end of the bear market.
Drawing a parallel with Bitcoin’s critical $30,000 barrier, Van de Poppe suggests that breaching this level could pave the way for a substantial rally, potentially propelling Ethereum towards the price range of $3,100 to $3,600.
However, Ethereum has yet to touch the $2,150 resistance line, as it faces a pre-existing obstacle in the form of its yearly high of $2,139. This pivotal level has halted the cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum, acting as a formidable resistance.
As a result, Ethereum has been consolidating within a narrow range between $2,050 and $2,100 for the past three days.
The forthcoming days will reveal whether Ethereum can overcome its immediate resistance levels and establish a consolidated position above them. Alternatively, it may face a fate similar to Bitcoin, which failed to surpass the $31,000 level for over seven months before reaching its current trading price of $36,000.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
In just the first half of this year, investment scams conned Canadians out of $161 million—most of it lost to cryptocurrency scams, according to the Canadian Anti-Fraud Centre (CAFC). “Crypto investments are the top type of investment scams reported to CAFC,” says Jeff Horncastle, the organization’s acting client and communications outreach officer. He adds that fewer than 5% of scams are reported, so the actual numbers are likely much higher.
Scammers often find victims on social media
Cryptocurrency scams are often intertwined with other types of scams—and the criminals behind them cast a wide net. “Unfortunately, everyone is targeted,” Horncastle says.
Con artists frequently find potential marks on social media. According to an analysis by TradingPlatforms based on FTC data, nearly one-third of social media crypto fraud happens on Instagram, and one-quarter on Facebook.
“In some cases, the scam starts as a romance scam and quickly turns into an ‘investment opportunity,’” says Horncastle. “Because suspects have gained the victim’s trust, it can lead to a high-dollar loss for the victim.”
10 types of crypto scams
There are many types of scams to watch out for, and unfortunately, as investors get savvier, the cons evolve and become trickier to spot. To protect yourself, always know where your money is going, understand the crypto advertising rules in Canada, and only use trusted and compliant crypto trading service providers. (As a starting point, see MoneySense’s picks for the top crypto platforms in Canada, which are all registered with Canadian securities regulators.) An exhaustive list of crypto scams is likely impossible, but to protect yourself, here are 10 to watch out for.
1. Pump-and-dump, or rug pull
In a “pump and dump” or “rug pull” scheme, promoters of a cryptocurrency hype it up to boost demand, and when the price soars, they sell all their coins for a quick profit. Because they sell in large volumes, other investors get nervous and sell their coins, too. As panic sets in and the selling spreads, the coin’s value plunges. The promoters get rich and small investors are left “holding the bag,” faced with huge losses.
A notorious example of an alleged crypto pump-and-dump scheme is a coin called Squid Game. Launched in October 2021, it rode the popularity of the Netflix series of the same name—despite having no affiliation. Less than two weeks later, Squid Game’s crypto developers suddenly sold their holdings when the coin’s price hit $2,800, making themselves $3.3 million richer (all figures in U.S. currency). Today, one Squid coin is worth about a tenth of a penny.
The pump-and-dump scam is not unique to crypto, of course. It’s what high-flying stockbroker Jordan Belfort—the subject of the Hollywood film The Wolf of Wall Street, starring Leonardo DiCaprio—engaged in during the 1990s. His firm was accused of artificially inflating the price of penny stocks before selling their shares to make lots of fast money—costing investors up to $200 million. In the early 2000s, Belfort served 22 months in federal prison for securities fraud. He’s now marketing himself as an investment guru.
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin sharks and whales have participated in a selloff of around $2.2 billion during the past week.
Bitcoin Wallets With 100 To 10,000 BTC Have Been Selling Recently
As pointed out by analyst Ali in a post on X, the large BTC investors might have been harvesting their profits recently. The indicator of interest here is the “BTC Supply Distribution,” which keeps track of the total amount of Bitcoin the different wallet groups in the sector are holding.
The addresses or investors are divided into these groups based on the total number of coins they currently carry. For instance, the 1 to 10 coins cohort includes all wallets with a balance of at least 1 and at most 10 BTC.
In the context of the current discussion, the 100 to 10,000 BTC range is of focus. The 100 to 1,000 coins group is popularly called the “sharks,” while the 1,000 to 10,000 cohort includes the whales.
Both groups carry significant amounts, so their behavior can be relevant for the wider market. Though the whales are much larger of the two, and thus hold much more influence on the network.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the combined Supply Distribution of the Bitcoin sharks and whales over the past couple of months:
The value of the metric seems to have registered a sharp drop in recent days | Source: @ali_charts on X
As displayed in the above graph, the 100 to 10,000 coins Bitcoin investors have seen their supply go through a steep drawdown during the past week. During this drop, these humongous entities have sold around 60,000 BTC, worth about $2.2 billion at the current asset price.
This is a notable amount, and considering that the timing of the distribution has coincided with BTC’s latest break above the $37,000 level, it would appear possible that these key holders have participated in this huge selloff to harvest the profits that they would have amassed in the rally.
The sharks and whales also took part in some selling when BTC had broken above $35,000 last month, but both the rate and the scale of the selloff were lesser when compared to the one now, as the Supply Distribution for these cohorts has plunged rather steeply this time around.
So far, however, despite this large selloff, Bitcoin hasn’t had much trouble maintaining around the $37,000 mark. The asset initially saw a pullback when the selling started, as it retraced towards $36,000, but it rebounded back quickly enough.
That said, BTC may not be able to break out of its sideways movement toward the upside without the backing of the sharks and whales. The aforementioned surge towards the $37,000 had also occurred just after these investors had made some huge buying moves.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has continued to consolidate around the $37,000 level during the past few days as the chart below shows.
In his latest essay, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has laid out his investment playbook in the current global economic landscape, focusing on the potential of Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, big tech, and traditional financial markets.
Dumb Trades
Hayes begins with a blunt critique of traditional investment strategies, particularly the purchase of long-term bonds in the current economic climate. He explicitly states, “The dumbest thing one can do is purchase long-term bonds with a buy-and-hold mentality.”
Hayes explains this viewpoint by highlighting the risks associated with these bonds, especially when liquidity conditions shift, saying, “You will experience a market-to-market gain today, but…the market will start to discount the impact of further Reverse Repo [RRP] balance decreases and long-end bond yields will creep higher, which means prices fall.”
Moving on to smarter investment approaches, Hayes acknowledges leveraging short-term debt, as exemplified by Stan Druckenmiller. Hayes notes that Stan Druckenmiller went mega-long 2-year treasuries. He remarked, “Great trade, brah! Not everyone has the stomach for the best expressions of this trade (hint: it’s crypto). Therefore, if all you can trade are manipulated TradFi assets like government bonds and stocks, then this isn’t a bad option.”
Hayes also argues that a trade “that’s a bit better than the medium-smart trade (but still not the smartest) is to go long on big tech.” Hayes focuses on AI-related companies. He identifies AI as a pivotal future technology, arguing, “Everyone knows that everyone knows that AI is the future. This means anything AI-related will pump, because everyone is buying it too. Tech stocks are long-duration assets and will benefit from cash being trash once more.”
Smart Trades: Bitcoin And Crypto
However, the smartest trade is to go long crypto, which has significantly outperformed other assets relative to the increase in central bank balance sheets. Hayes presented the chart below, comparing the performance of Bitcoin, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Gold against the Fed’s balance sheet since March 2020, highlighting Bitcoin’s exceptional growth.
Bitcoin (white), Nasdaq 100 (red), S&P 500 (green), and Gold (yellow) divided by the Fed’s balance sheet | Source: Arthur Hayes / Medium
Hayes identifies Bitcoin as the primary investment target, describing it as “money and only money.” Following Bitcoin, he points to Ether as the commodity powering the Ethereum network. “Ether is the commodity that powers the Ethereum network, which is the best internet computer.”
He categorizes other cryptocurrencies, stating, “Bitcoin and Ether are crypto’s reserve assets. Everything else is a shitcoin.” He further elaborates on alternative layer-one blockchains like Solana, calling them “all overhyped, me-too, pieces of shit that won’t overtake Ethereum in terms of active developers, dApp activity, or Total Value Locked.”
Hayes also discusses decentralized applications (dApps) and their tokens. He finds this sector exciting for its high-return potential, though he acknowledges the risks: “Finally, all manner of dApps and their respective tokens will pump. This is the most fun, because down here is where you get the 10,000x returns. Of course, you’re also more likely to get rugged, but where there is no risk there is no return. I love shitcoins, so don’t ever call me a maxi!”
Geo-Economic Factors
Regarding his investment strategy in the context of current economic fluctuations, Hayes explains his focus on the net of RRP minus Treasury General Account (TGA) to gauge market liquidity, which informs his decisions on T-bill sales and Bitcoin purchases. He emphasizes the importance of adaptability, stating, “I will stay nimble and flexible. The best-laid plans of mice and men have a tendency to falter.”
Hayes also delves into geopolitical considerations, specifically the potential impact of the Hamas v. Israel conflict on oil prices and monetary policy. He notes Bitcoin’s resilience in such scenarios: “Bitcoin has proven to outperform bonds during times of war. […] The long-term US Treasury bond ETF has fallen 12% vs. Bitcoin pumping 52% since the onset of the Ukraine / Russia war.”
While he concedes that Bitcoin could fall in an initial move when Iran is drawn into the Hamas v. Israel war, it would be a “buy the dip” situation according to Hayes.
In a candid conclusion, Hayes comments on the historical context of geopolitical conflicts, expressing skepticism about the prospects for global peace: “Of course, if those in charge of Pax Americana committed themselves to peace and global harmony… nah, I’m not even going to finish that thought. These mofos have been practicing war since 1776, with no signs of letting up.”
According to Hayes, however, all roads lead to Bitcoin: “[It] will reassert itself as a real-time scorecard on the health of the war-time fiat financial system.”
CME overtakes Binance to grab largest share of Bitcoin futures open interest
Bitcoin’s futures market is showing an interesting shift as global derivatives marketplace the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has surpassed Binance in terms of Bitcoin futures open interest. This change occurred after Bitcoin exceeded the $37,000 mark for the first time in over 18 months.
However, James Seyffart, a research analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence specializing in exchange-traded funds, questioned whether the increasing open interest in Bitcoin futures on CME would address historical concerns of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission regarding the depth of Bitcoin markets and the potential for market manipulation.
“Okay this is interesting… Does this constitute a ‘market of significant size’ now?” Seyffart stated in a post on X (formerly Twitter).
Cryptoqueen’s OneCoin legal chief pleads guilty to fraud
The former head of legal and compliance at OneCoin is looking at a potential 10-year prison term for her involvement in the $4 billion cryptocurrency trading scheme. In Manhattan federal court, the ex-compliance chief of OneCoin, Irinia Dilkinska, pleaded guilty to charges of wire fraud and money laundering.
According to a statement from the U.S. Department of Justice, U.S. District Judge Edgardo Ramos accepted Dilkinska’s guilty plea. She admitted to one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and one count of conspiracy to commit money laundering. Each charge carries a maximum sentence of five years in prison.
Dilkinska is scheduled for sentencing on February 14, 2024, facing a potential maximum sentence of 10 years in prison for her role in the OneCoin scheme.
Genesis seeks court’s approval to reduce Three Arrows Capital claim from $1B to $33M
Bankrupt cryptocurrency lender Genesis has asked the court to approve its proposed settlement agreement with the collapsed crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC).
In a recent court document, Genesis stated that 3AC should be given a claim of $33 million against Genesis. This represents 3.3% of the total claims initially made against Genesis, which amounted to $1 billion.
According to Genesis, 3AC’s claims against Genesis were the largest asserted claims in Chapter 11 cases associated with the collapse of the FTX exchange. Genesis stressed that the 3AC debtor was one of Genesis’s largest borrowers from 2020 to 2022, up until the time of its collapse.
SafeMoon CEO bail release goes on hold after Feds cite flight risk
SafeMoon CEO Braden John Karony’s bail release has been delayed by U.S. federal prosecutors, who argue that he may try to leave the country due to his alleged access to funds and connections abroad. The prosecutors expressed concerns that his release could pose a flight risk and be a potential danger to the community.
The delay comes after a New York District Judge, LaShann DeArcy Hall, decided to put a hold on the bail release order issued on Nov. 8 by a Utah Magistrate judge, who had allowed Karony to be released on a $500,000 bail. However, prosecutors contested this decision, claiming that the release order was made “without consideration of the defendant’s substantial financial means and ability to flee,” and they emphasized that his release could be a “continued danger to the community.”
Binance to terminate Russian ruble deposits next week
Binance users in Russia need to take note: They have a little over two months, until Jan. 31, 2024, to withdraw their rubles from the platform. Binance is wrapping up its operations in Russia and plans to stop accepting deposits in Russian rubles from November 15, 2023.
This comes after Binance declared its complete exit from Russia by selling its business to a newly established crypto exchange called CommEX in September 2023. However, there’s been limited information about the details of the deal, including the size of the transaction and the founders of CommEX, causing some controversy.
Winners and Losers
At the end of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is at $37,249, Ether (ETH) at $2,078 and XRP (XRP) at $0.67. The total market cap is at $1.42 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.
Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers of the week were FTX Token (FTT) at 250.48%, Kaspa (KAS) at 67.23% and Cronos (CRO) at 52.20%.
The top three altcoin losers of the week are Maker (MKR) at -3.39%, Tether Gold (XAUt) at -2.60% and PAX Gold (PAXG) at -2.51%.
SEC Chair Gensler cannot continue to abuse the powers of his agency to fulfill a political agenda of driving the new and promising digital asset industry offshore.”
Binance’s Chief Compliance Officer crudely but succinctly summed up this case when he admitted that Binance was ‘operating as a fking unlicensed securities exchange in the USA bro.’ He was right.”
In Web3, it’s not the code that’s king, but the community. Instead of perfecting backend logic, focus on front-end transparency.”
Tiago Serôdio, head of community at Partisia Blockchain
I say, ‘Sorry, we are boring.’ But we are one of the oldest projects. We are very big… We are the one who has the most changes on GitHub, and we have not been down for over 2000 days… Boring sometimes is good.”
Bitcoin ‘Terminal Price’ hints next BTC all-time high is at least $110K
As the price of BTC hovers around its highest levels in the past 18 months, analysts are already speculating about the potential upward trajectory it may take in the upcoming months and years. Bitcoin may next be a “sell” at $110,000 as its new bull cycle plays out, a classic on-chain indicator suggests.
Analyzing its Terminal Price, Look Into Bitcoin creator Philip Swift described its value as a “simple” method of estimating long-term BTC price peaks. Terminal Price is calculated from Bitcoin’s so-called “Transferred Price” — a value derived by dividing “Coin Days Destroyed” by the existing supply. Not every all-time high reaches Terminal Price, but BTC/USD did hit the trendline during its 2017 all-time and initial peak in April 2021. The current all-time high of $69,000, seen in November of that year, fell short.
As Terminal Price increases with time, $110,000 may ultimately end up a conservative target should the next all-time high occur only later in the next cycle.
FUD of the Week
JPEX scandal: Taiwan determines new suspects in alleged fraud — Report
Taiwanese prosecutors are seeking to detain Chang Tung-ying, the chief partner at JPEX’s Taiwan office, on charges of fraud related to the JPEX cryptocurrency exchange. The situation surrounding the collapsed exchange is unfolding, with the Taipei District Prosecutors Office (TDPO) reportedly identifying new suspects. According to a report from local TV channel TVBS News on November 9, the TDPO has requested the custody of Chang Tung-ying over allegations of fraud.
As part of the ongoing JPEX investigation, prosecutors in Taipei searched nine locations and summoned Chang along with three other individuals believed to be involved. Chang and JPEX lecturer Shih Yu-sheng (also known as Shi Yu) are considered suspects in the case for violating the Banking Act and the Money Laundering Control Act.
Crypto exchange CoinSpot reportedly suffers $2M hot wallet hack
Blockchain security firm CertiK indicates that the recent $2.4 million theft from Australian cryptocurrency exchange CoinSpot hot wallet likely occurred due to a “private key compromise.” CoinSpot appears to have experienced a hack, involving the probable compromise of a private key in one of its hot wallets.
Pseudonymous blockchain investigator ZachXBT highlighted two transactions on Nov. 8 that entered the wallet belonging to the alleged hacker. Subsequently, the wallet’s owner transferred the funds to the Bitcoin network via THORChain and Wan Bridge. CertiK stated that the apparent exploit was likely the result of a “probable private key compromise” on at least one of CoinSpot’s hot wallets.
According to Etherscan data, a transaction of 1,262 Ether, valued at $2.4 million at current prices, originated from a recognized CoinSpot wallet and entered the wallet linked to the alleged hacker.
A crypto wallet linked to the digital exchange Poloniex has experienced suspicious outflows, evident on the blockchain explorer Etherscan. Blockchain security experts suspect a breach, resulting in attackers draining up to $100 million in crypto.
On Nov. 10, millions in crypto assets were moved from an account labeled Poloniex 4 on Etherscan. Initially estimated at $60 million, later assessments revealed the loss exceeded $100 million. CertiK, a blockchain security firm, suggests a “private key compromise” as the likely cause and notes that the funds have already been transferred to four externally owned accounts, with some converted into Ether.
Exclusive: 2 years after John McAfee’s death, widow Janice is broke and needs answers
Two years after John McAfee’s death, his wife, Janice, is still unable to get closure. “All I want is to see his body for myself and know that really happened.”
Animoca buys Twitch-like platform and Web3 gaming was a major talking point at Binance Blockchain Week.
6 Questions for Lugui Tillier about Bitcoin, Ordinals, and the future of crypto
Lugui Tillier is the commercial director for Lumx Studios, one of the top cryptocurrency firms in Rio de Janeiro — a city with a burgeoning crypto industry.
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Moody’s recently downgraded the U.S. credit rating outlook to “negative” from “stable.” This has led to speculation that Bitcoin could be a safe haven asset for investors looking to hedge against the potential risks of a weakening U.S. economy.
Moody’s Investors Service has indicated a potential downgrade of the U.S.’s top credit rating. The downgrade is attributed to large fiscal deficits, a decline in debt affordability, and continued political polarization within the U.S. Congress.
While the U.S. still maintains an “AAA” rating for the moment, the credit rating agency’s downgrade reflects a growing concerns about the U.S. government’s debt and its inability to handle fiscal responsibilities.
Without measures to cut spending or increase revenue, Moody’s warns, fiscal deficits could persist at a substantial level. This would significantly undermine debt affordability, especially in the face of rising interest rates.
Moody’s decision comes after Fitch Ratings—considered one of three most significant rating agencies in the world (the others being Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s)—downgraded the country’s sovereign rating in August after months of political tension surrounding the U.S. debt ceiling.
Following the downgrade, Bitcoin briefly surged above $30,000.
The downgrade shifted the U.S. out of the category of nations with the highest credit ratings evaluated by Fitch, one of three firms assessing governments and companies’ ability to meet their financial obligations.
Moody’s senior vice president William Foster mentioned that any substantial policy response to address the declining fiscal strength is unlikely to occur until 2025. This delay is attributed to the constraints imposed by the political calendar in the upcoming year.
Moody’s decision to revise the U.S. credit outlook also coincides with heightened fiscal scrutiny, given the escalating national debt levels and political disagreements obstructing agreement on budgetary management.
This has sparked speculation that Bitcoin could serve as a safe haven asset for investors seeking to hedge against potential risks associated with a weakening U.S. economy.
Despite Bitcoin’s price volatility, its appeal lies in its decentralized nature and limited supply, making it an attractive investment choice for those seeking portfolio diversification and a hedge against inflation and other economic risks.
Capped at 21 million coins, Bitcoin could be a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, particularly amid concerns about the U.S.’s fiscal strength. Furthermore, the global acceptance of Bitcoin as a digital currency enhances its attractiveness for investors seeking diversification beyond traditional assets.
As the financial landscape evolves, Bitcoin’s unique characteristics may position it as a potential hedge against uncertainties arising from U.S. fiscal challenges.
Bitcoin vs. traditional investment vehicles
While conventional options like stocks, bonds, and real estate boast a proven history of providing enduring growth and stability, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies fall into the category of speculative investments.
According to Charles Schwab, Bitcoin doesn’t align with current traditional asset allocation models, given its status as neither a traditional commodity nor a conventional currency.
Last week, Bitcoin experienced a temporary surge, reaching over $35,000. The boost was driven by optimism about the possible approval of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and concerns regarding inflation and market correction.
The uptick in Bitcoin’s value gained momentum amid growing expectations that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might greenlight ETFs directly invested in Bitcoin.
Some investors considered Bitcoin a safe haven amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties, contributing to the price spike. However, economist and crypto skeptic Peter Schiff had predicted a market crash before the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF, expressing concerns that early buyers might sell to capitalize on profits, potentially triggering a market downturn.
Despite the volatility and diverse opinions, the increase in Bitcoin’s price signifies the escalating interest and optimism surrounding the potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs and its perceived role as a safe haven asset.
Avalanche (AVAX) has had a relatively quiet second half of 2023 regarding price performance and ecosystem advancements. However, the token experienced a mesmerized turnaround towards the end of October, which has seen its value rise almost vertically in the past few weeks.
Avalanche’s positive run coincides with an optimistic climate in the general crypto market, as investors appear to be more interested in various digital assets. While Bitcoin, the premier cryptocurrency, continues to hold its own above the $37,000 mark, most altcoins seem ready to take advantage of changing market sentiment.
Avalanche Displays Strength With 31% Rally – Price Overview
The Avalanche price reached a yearly low of $8.78 in late September, forming the bottom for a trend reversal. The cryptocurrency’s price has been on a bullish run since then while looking to reclaim the highs achieved at the beginning of 2023.
As of this writing, the AVAX token is valued at $18.58, reflecting a massive 31% price increase in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the price of the altcoin has swelled by more than 48% in the weekly timeframe.
A broader look at the Avalanche price chart further highlights the token’s strength and attractiveness over the past few weeks. According to CoinGecko data, the value of AVAX has more than doubled in the past month.
Avalanche’s positive price action – in such a short timeframe – further emphasizes the favorable sentiment currently brewing in the general crypto market. Investors have also seen other altcoins, like Solana, Ethereum, and Chainlink, go on an upward trajectory in the past weeks.
Based on data from CoinMarketCap, AVAX has witnessed more than an 85% increase in its daily trading volume. Meanwhile, the token’s current market cap of roughly $6.68 billion reflects a 31% jump in the past day.
Can AVAX Maintain Bullish Momentum To $22?
Many investors would be watching to see how far the Avalanche token can keep up with its red-hot momentum. And this makes sense, considering that the cryptocurrency was one of the best performers in the last bull market, rallying to a peak of $145.
In the short term, price action data suggests AVAX might be able to break above the psychological $20 level without much resistance. Nevertheless, investors should watch out for the $22 threshold, as it has proven to be a significant resistance zone in the past.
If Avalanche manages to breach and close above the $22 price mark, the token’s price could experience a parabolic run to $60. On the flip side, if the resistance level holds strong, the AVAX price could fall to find support at around $15.
Avalanche price continues upward trajectory on the daily timeframe | Source: AVAXUSDT chart on the TradingView
Featured image from IQ.wiki, chart from TradingView
For the first time in three months, the top 13 publicly traded crypto mining companies have sold more bitcoins (BTC) than they produced.
According to Bitcoin mining research platform TheMinerMag, the liquidation-to-production ratio for miners like Marathon Digital, Core Scientific, Argo Blockchain, Bitfarms, Bit Digital, Hut 8, Iris Energy, and Terawulf was 105% in October, meaning they sold all their mined coins plus assets from their holdings.
Miners Sold More BTC Than Mined in October
In October, Bitcoin’s 28% rally to around $35,000 brought the leading digital asset to an 18-month high. The amount of liquidation by the top 13 public mining companies tapped into BTC’s 30% monthly gain, as the firms sold 5,492 BTC – worth roughly $164 million.
October’s liquidation-to-production ratio was higher than that of July, August, and September, which had 64%, 77%, and 77%, respectively. The ratio peaked as the bear market began to take its toll in June 2022 to 360% before plunging in August of the same year to around 80%.
Notably, some mining companies have consistently sold all their mined BTC every month, but firms like Marathon, Hut 8, Cipher, CleanSpark, and Bit Digital use a hybrid treasury strategy, and they liquidated more in October than in previous months. Bit Digital and Hut 8, which sold 422 and 365 BTC, respectively, had the highest individual ratios, liquidating over 300% of their monthly productions.
Preparation for Bitcoin’s Upcoming Halving
Bitcoin miners could sell a higher portion of their mined assets for several reasons, including replenishing their cash reserves or realizing profits off price rallies. Another major reason is to stock up cash in preparation for the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, which would slash their block rewards by half.
The Bitcoin halving occurs approximately every four years or after every 210,000 blocks and will continue in the same manner until all 21 million BTC have been mined.
The mechanism controls the issuance of new BTC by reducing the number of coins mined in a day. The last halving event in May 2020 slashed the network’s block reward from 12.5 BTC to 6,25 BTC, and the next, scheduled for April 2024, will implement a reduction to 3,125 BTC.
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Coinciding with the crypto market’s newfound bull run, Solana (SOL) has made significant strides, rising by over 175% in the last 30 days.
The recent crypto market upturn has not only propelled Bitcoin (BTC) to an 18-month-high but also triggered massive gains for Solana, effectively pushing it over the $20 billion market cap milestone.
FTX wallets unstake $160M in SOL
Recently, analysts at Lookonchain reported a substantial unstaking of $160 million worth of SOL from FTX-linked wallets. This move resulted in a dip in the price of Solana’s native SOL token, dropping to around $40, before orchestrating a recovery. Despite this significant unstaking event, Solana’s price is still holding strong.
Popular crypto trader, Bluntz, observed a consistent selling pattern by FTX, ranging between 250k-700k SOL daily for the past two weeks. Surprisingly, this selling pressure hasn’t deterred SOL’s price, suggesting a robust absorption capacity. The analyst anticipates a further Solana price surge once this selling pressure subsides.
FTX has been selling between 250k-700k $SOL every day for the last 2 weeks while price has either been going up or sideways.
so far its been getting absorbed like a champ and at current rate their unlocked tokens should be depleted within a week.
The latest data from CoinGecko shows Solana exchanging hands for $60.39, representing a 183% increase over the past 30 days.
With a circulating supply of 420 million SOL, its market cap stands at $25.2 billion.
Solana’s exceptional growth in 2023 positions it among the top three layer-1 blockchains, challenging Ethereum and Binance Chain with its unique technology and growing user base.
The journey of Solana in 2023 showcases a compelling narrative of growth, overcoming market challenges, and demonstrating resilience.
The flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, is up by over 100% year-to-date (YTD). Despite these impressive gains, there is still reason to believe that the crypto token’s resurgence isn’t done, as there could still be new highs before the year runs out based on analysis from prominent figures in the community.
Bitcoin To Hit $69,000 This Year?
In a post shared on his X (formerly Twitter) platform, prominent crypto analyst Dave the Wave suggested that Bitcoin could surge to its previous highs this last quarter of the year. Although he didn’t state what highs exactly, the accompanying chart he shared in the post showed that he was hinting at Bitcoin’s all-time high of about $69,000.
This isn’t the first time the crypto analyst has shared his belief that Bitcoin could hit $69,000 this year. In an earlier X post, he shared a similar chart, which put up a price target of $70,000 based on the speculation of “another mini-parabola frontrunning the halving.”
It is not unusual for the market to pump significantly, as historical data suggests. Bitcoin’s price has increased significantly before and after every halving event. Before the most recent halving event, which took place in 2020, BTC rose by over 17% in the weeks leading up to it and saw a further 559% increase after the event.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $37.072. Chart: TradingView.com
However, many might argue that an all-time high (ATH) before the halving event, which takes place in April 2024, seems like a far reach, especially if the analyst is projecting that the new high will occur before this year runs out.
Bitcoin To Hit New All-Time High Before April?
While a new all-time high before the year runs out seems like a big task, some prominent figures have, however, backed the crypto token to hit a new ATH before April. One of them happens to be Bitcoin OG and founder of Blockstream, Adam Back. Interestingly, Back predicted (back in August) that BTC will hit or even surpass $100,000 before March 31st, 2024.
To show how confident he was of his assertion, the crypto founder went as far as placing a bet with another X user who disagreed with his position. They both agreed to wager a bet of 1 million satoshis, with the winner (depending on Bitcoin’s price by March 31, 2024) taking all.
The CEO of Jan3 and a fellow Bitcoiner, Samson Mow, had also agreed with Back in some way, as he believes that Bitcoin will also hit a new ATH pre-halving and not post. However, unlike Back, he didn’t mention any price target.
Kaspa (KAS) has emerged as a notable altcoin, drawing considerable interest from investors. Notably, the cryptocurrency has achieved its all-time high, experiencing an impressive 66% increase over the previous week.
Examining the monthly performance charts reveals an even more substantial upward trajectory, with KAS exhibiting a remarkable surge of over 90%. Zooming out to a year-long perspective, the altcoin has witnessed an astonishing increase of over 2,000%, showcasing its significant growth over this extended period.
Investors are closely monitoring Kaspa as it continues to showcase strong bullish momentum, reflecting the cryptocurrency market’s dynamic nature. The rapid and substantial increases in both short-term and long-term intervals underscore the token’s potential for high returns.
Kaspa Shows Mettle, Pulls Off Its Own Rally
With Bitcoin surpassing the $36,800 threshold and Ethereum exceeding $2,000, the native token of Kaspa pulled off its own ascent, rising from approximately $0.070986 to reach an unprecedented peak of $0.092917.
Based on the aforementioned data, it can be observed that Kaspa is one of the limited number of tokens now experiencing their highest recorded values. Many cryptocurrencies registered a significant decline from their historical peak values following the occurrence of a market downturn commonly referred to as the “crypto winter.” This period witnessed the collapse of prominent crypto entities such as Terra Luna and FTX crypto exchange.
Based on the data provided by CoinMarketCap, it can be observed that the trading volume of Kaspa’s (KAS) has experienced a significant surge of more than 95%.
Source: CoinMarketCap
Additionally, the market capitalization of KAS has exhibited a notable gain of nearly 20%. Furthermore, there has been a significant increase in trading volume, with a jump of around 380% compared to the preceding week. The current market capitalization of the project stands just above $1.8 billion.
This increase in value positions Kaspa as a compelling investment option, capturing the attention of those seeking opportunities in the ever-evolving landscape of digital assets. As the altcoin landscape continues to evolve, Kaspa’s impressive performance highlights its resilience and appeal, making it a noteworthy player in the cryptocurrency market.
KASUSDT trading at $0.089 on the weekend chart: TradingView.com
The inclusion of Kaspa on Coinone’s platform is its initial foray into the cryptocurrency market in South Korea, granting it significant visibility among a group of investors who are very interested in blockchain initiatives and digital assets. The unique GHOSTDAG protocol, authored by Kaspa, garnered the interest of Korean traders.
Kaspa Makes Foray Into South Korea
The latest indication of Kaspa’s growing popularity among cryptocurrency traders and investors is its successful entry into the South Korean market. As Kaspa develops and realizes its lofty vision of scalability, security, and practical application, it appears ready for more expansion.
KAS’s future trajectory remains uncertain, with the potential for further rally or a correction. Reaching $1 would signify a remarkable 1062% growth, though it seems unlikely currently. The possibility of a correction looms, despite community members maintaining a target of at least $0.10.
The recent surge in Bitcoin (BTC) to a yearly high of over $36k may have influenced KAS’s all-time high, suggesting that KAS and other altcoins could follow BTC’s lead if it continues to rally.
(This site’s content should not be construed as investment advice. Investing involves risk. When you invest, your capital is subject to risk).
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin and Ether are crypto’s reserve assets while everything else is a shitcoin. While he assured that he loves shitcoins and is not a maxi(malist), Hayes went on to add that the first stop is always BTC since “Bitcoin is money and only money.”
Hayes talks about what to purchase to outperform the currency debasement. The smartest trade is going long crypto, according to the exec. He cited that nothing else has outperformed the increase in central bank balance sheets like crypto.
Hayes on Janet Yellen’s Strategies
Hayes delivered a candid analysis of Janet Yellen’s pivotal role as the United States Treasury Secretary and the consequential impact of her decisions on the global financial system. He characterized Yellen as the “baddest bitch in the world,” highlighting her authority to exclude entities from the dollar-dominated financial system, equating it to a potential “death sentence.”
In his latest blog post, Hayes further criticized government-produced inflation statistics, suggesting they may downplay the true effects of inflation.
He particularly pointed out the uncertainties and potential pitfalls in Yellen’s potential strategies that are aimed at stabilizing the economy, issuing short-dated bills, and managing the balance between the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) and Treasury General Account (TGA). The exec hinted that Yellen’s actions may lead to a substantial injection of liquidity into the financial markets.
Hayes argues that this influx of liquidity, coupled with the actions of other major central banks globally, could result in a depreciation of the dollar. As more dollars circulate in the system, the relative value of the currency may decrease compared to other major currencies like the yuan, yen, and euro. The discussion implies that the combined impact of Yellen’s strategies and the resulting increase in fiat credit globally might contribute to a weakened dollar.
Bitcoin: Saviour
With all of the fiat liquidity “sloshing” around the global markets, Hayes believes betting on big tech such as AI could serve as a smart move. However, betting on cryptocurrencies is the smartest move, according to the 38-year-old American entrepreneur. He called for investors to consider cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, as a hedge against potential fiat currency debasement.
“The first stop is always Bitcoin. Bitcoin is money and only money. The next stop is Ether. Ether is the commodity that powers the Ethereum network, which is the best internet computer. Bitcoin and Ether are crypto’s reserve assets. Everything else is a shitcoin.”
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In the evolving cryptocurrency market, XRP, currently ranked as the fifth largest digital asset, has recently exhibited a modest price increase compared to its major counterparts.
However, when examining XRP’s performance across various time frames, the token has reported significant gains. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that XRP is currently trading well below its yearly high, in contrast to its peers who have achieved and surpassed new highs in 2023 during the recent bullish surge.
Impending XRP Price Breakout?
Prominent industry expert using the pseudonym “Crypto Insight” on the X platform (formerly known as Twitter) shared an intriguing update with his over 20,000 followers, signaling an impending XRP blastoff.
According to Crypto Insight, it becomes apparent that XRP tends to lag behind the price action of Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency. However, there are indications that XRP breakouts are gradually converging with the movements of BTC.
Analyzing historical data, Crypto Insight highlights that the time taken for XRP to experience significant breakouts has been decreasing over time.
The first major breakout took approximately 22 days, while the most recent pump occurred within a shorter time frame of 13 days. If this trend of closing the gap between XRP and BTC continues, it suggests a potential breakout date around November 15th.
Additionally, XRP has undergone a cooling-off period in the 4-hour time frame, implying that there might be further room for a downside correction before a reversal to the upside occurs.
Crypto Analyst Targets $5.5
Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto has recently unveiled a noteworthy forecast for XRP, centering around the Multi-Year Ascending Triangle (MYAT) pattern, which holds significant implications for XRP’s price movements.
According to Egrag’s analysis, The MYAT pattern indicates that XRP experienced a breakout above the Symmetrical Triangle after reaching the 70% completion mark, which aligns with the timeline of July on the chart.
The surge in price to $0.93 and the subsequent retest at the breakout point are seen as part of a standard retest process, indicating potential strength in the upward momentum.
Looking ahead, Egarg Crypto highlights several key projections for XRP:
XRP appears to be poised to reach a target of $1.3, as indicated by the Blue Ascending Triangle on the chart. This level represents a significant milestone that XRP could potentially achieve in the near future.
The next notable move for XRP could potentially propel it to $5.5. However, it is important to note that at this price level, a considerable selloff by retail investors is anticipated, according to Egrag.
Building upon the larger symmetrical triangle pattern, Egarg Crypto suggests that XRP could see a remarkable 500% price increase in the future, indicating the potential for a substantial pump.
Currently, XRP is grappling with the challenge of establishing consolidation above the crucial $0.600 level, which holds significant implications for the cryptocurrency’s future price uptrend and overall prospects. In the past 30 days, XRP has recorded a gain of 35%.
However, the sustainability of this price action for the anticipated second leg up in November remains uncertain.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
The anticipation around the next BTC halving is palpable among investors and cryptocurrency enthusiasts alike. This process, which slashes the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions in half, is a pivotal event for the economy of the flagship cryptocurrency.
The next BTC halving date is not just a mark on the calendar; it’s a beacon for potential shifts in value and market dynamics, making the question “when is the next BTC halving” all the more critical for market participants. This comprehensive guide dives deep into the concept of Bitcoin halving, its historical impact, and what the future holds as we approach the next halving.
Bitcoin Network 101: The Basics Explained
The next BTC halving is a seminal event in the Bitcoin blockchain’s timeline, marking the point at which the reward for mining new blocks is halved. This event is not just a technical adjustment, but a significant milestone that historically has had profound implications for Bitcoin’s economics and market sentiment. Since the 2020 halving, miners have been receiving 6.25 Bitcoins (BTC) per successfully mined block, a reward that incentivizes the decentralized security of the network.
Looking ahead, the next BTC halving is projected to take place in early-to-mid 2024, a moment when the mining incentive will decrease to 3.125 BTC per block. This editorial delves into the intricacies of the next BTC halving, examining its anticipated date, the countdown to the event, and the broader implications for Bitcoin’s supply and valuation. We will also explore the historical context of past halvings to understand the potential future trajectory of Bitcoin as the reward continues to halve towards the smallest unit of a Bitcoin, one Satoshi.
The Bitcoin network is a triumph of cryptographic achievements and economic incentives that create a trustless system for value transfer. At its core, the network is a distributed database, known as the blockchain, that maintains a continuously growing list of transaction records hardened against tampering and revision. It employs a consensus algorithm called Proof of Work (PoW) to ensure network synchrony and security.
Bitcoin Mining 101
Miners, who are network participants with specialized hardware, compete to solve cryptographically hard puzzles. The solution to these puzzles requires a significant amount of computational power and energy. The first miner to validate a block of transactions by solving the puzzle is granted the right to append that block to the blockchain. This process is referred to as ‘mining’ a block, and it is through this mechanism that transactions are confirmed and the network is secured.
Bitcoin Mining
The reward for mining is twofold: miners collect transaction fees from each transaction included in the new block, and they are also awarded a block subsidy. This subsidy is composed of newly created bitcoins and is the mechanism through which new bitcoins are introduced into circulation. The block subsidy is predetermined by the Bitcoin protocol and undergoes a halving event every 210,000 blocks, which historically occurs approximately every four years.
The Bitcoin protocol is designed to be a self-regulating market system. The difficulty of the cryptographic puzzles adjusts approximately every two weeks (“Bitcoin Difficulty Adjustment”), ensuring that the time between each block found remains close to ten minutes, despite the fluctuating amount of computational power dedicated to mining. This difficulty adjustment is critical to the network’s stability and the predictability of Bitcoin issuance.
Definition And Rationale Behind BTC Halving
The BTC halving is an event that is deeply embedded in the Bitcoin protocol, serving as a deflationary mechanism by design. It is a deliberate algorithmic adjustment that occurs every 210,000 blocks, which historically equates to roughly every four years. During this event, the block subsidy awarded to miners for each block mined—comprising new bitcoins created and added to the circulating supply—is cut in half.
This halving process is a critical component of Bitcoin’s economic model, which is characterized by a capped supply limit of 21 million coins. The halving serves to enforce a synthetic form of inflation that is programmatically decreasing over time, ensuring that the issuance of new bitcoins follows a predictable deceleration curve akin to the extraction of a finite resource.
Key Narrative Behind The Bitcoin Halving
The rationale behind this process is multifaceted:
Controlled Supply Emission: By algorithmically enforcing a reduction in the rate at which new bitcoins are created, the halving event ensures that the total supply approaches the maximum cap asymptotically, a stark contrast to fiat currencies which can be printed without limit.
Inflation Hedge: The halving events contribute to Bitcoin’s proposition as a hedge against inflation. As the rate of supply expansion slows down, assuming demand remains constant or increases, the purchasing power of Bitcoin should, in theory, strengthen over time.
Security Incentives: The block subsidy is a critical incentive for miners to expend energy securing the network. As the subsidy decreases, the expectation is that a corresponding increase in the value of Bitcoin will offset the reduced block reward, maintaining or enhancing the security budget.
Market Anticipation and Speculation: Halving events are often accompanied by significant market attention and speculation, leading to increased trading activity and liquidity as investors attempt to predict and capitalize on potential price movements resulting from the supply shock.
Long-Term Viability: By enforcing a methodical reduction in new supply, Bitcoin’s halving events are designed to ensure the network’s long-term viability, preventing the rapid depletion of mining rewards and encouraging sustainable growth.
Brief History Of Past BTC Halving Dates And Their Impact
The history of Bitcoin halving dates back to November 28, 2012, when the first halving occurred at block 210,000. Prior to this event, the block reward was 50 BTC. Post-halving, it was reduced to 25 BTC. The impact was significant, with the price of Bitcoin increasing from approximately $12 in November 2012 to over $1,100 in November 2013, marking an increase of over 9,000%. This price surge is attributed to the reduced supply of new bitcoins and increased media and investor attention.
The Second and Third BTC Halving
The second BTC halving took place on July 9, 2016, at block 420,000, further reducing the block reward to 12.5 BTC. The price at the time of the halving was around $650, and over the next 18 months, Bitcoin experienced unprecedented growth, reaching an all-time high of nearly $20,000 in December 2017. This represented an approximate 3,000% increase from the halving date to the peak of the market cycle.
The most recent, third Bitcoin halving occurred on May 11, 2020, at block 630,000, cutting the block reward down to the current 6.25 BTC. The price of Bitcoin on the halving date hovered around $8,600. Following this halving, Bitcoin entered another bull market, reaching a peak of around $64,000 in April 2021, which corresponds to an increase of roughly 644% from the halving date to the peak.
Each BTC halving has been followed by a period of increased Bitcoin prices, though the extent and duration of these bull markets have varied. The halvings are believed to have a direct impact on the price due to the reduced rate of new Bitcoin creation, which, if demand remains constant or increases, can lead to a higher price per Bitcoin.
The Fourth Bitcoin Halving
It’s important to note that while the Bitcoin halvings are significant, they are not the sole drivers of Bitcoin’s price. Other factors such as regulatory changes, technological advancements, macroeconomic trends, and shifts in investor sentiment also play crucial roles in the cryptocurrency’s valuation.
The next BTC halving is estimated to occur on April 24, 2024, at block 840,000, where the block reward will be reduced to 3.125 BTC. As with previous halvings, there is considerable speculation about the potential impact on the price and mining dynamics of Bitcoin. Historical patterns suggest a potential increase in Bitcoin’s price, but the actual outcome will depend on a complex interplay of market forces at the time.
The next BTC halving is at block 840,000
List Of The Next BTC Halving Dates
Bitcoin halvings occur every 210,000 blocks, which, with an average block time of roughly 10 minutes, translates to approximately every four years. Given that the last halving occurred in May 2020, we can project the next BTC halvings by adding four years to the previous halving date, keeping in mind that variations in actual block times can cause slight deviations from these estimates.
Here is a projected list of the next BTC halving dates until the emission of new bitcoins reaches zero:
The Next BTC Halving: Expected at block 840,000, around April 2024, reducing the block reward to 3.125 BTC.
2028 Halving: Expected at block 1,050,000, reducing the block reward to 1.5625 BTC.
2032 Halving: Expected at block 1,260,000, reducing the block reward to 0.78125 BTC.
2036 Halving: Expected at block 1,470,000, reducing the block reward to 0.390625 BTC.
2040 Halving: Expected at block 1,680,000, reducing the block reward to 0.1953125 BTC.
2044 Halving: Expected at block 1,890,000, reducing the block reward to 0.09765625 BTC.
2048 Halving: Expected at block 2,100,000, reducing the block reward to 0.048828125 BTC.
2052 and Beyond: The next BTC halvings will continue every four years, with the block reward continuing to halve until it becomes negligible.
The process will continue until the maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins has been reached, which is estimated to occur by the year 2140. After the final Bitcoin has been mined, miners will no longer receive block subsidies and will rely solely on transaction fees as compensation for their contribution to the network’s security.
Projecting the Next BTC Halving Date
When Is The Next BTC Halving Date
The next BTC halving is projected to occur when the Bitcoin blockchain reaches block 840,000. Based on the average time it takes to mine a block, the halving events have historically taken place approximately every four years. Given the current block height and the average block time, the next BTC halving is estimated to happen in April 2024.
Current Data And Prediction Of The Next BTC Halving Date
As of the latest data, the next BTC halving is anticipated to occur in April 2024. However, the exact date cannot be predicted with absolute certainty due to the variable nature of block times; it could potentially occur in late March or extend into May 2024. The most precise estimates suggest that the event will likely take place on April 20, 2024, at 10:24:52 AM UTC, according to CoinWarz.
These predictions are based on the current hashrate, or the total computational power, being used to mine and process transactions on the Bitcoin network. Fluctuations in hashrate can affect block times and thus could slightly alter the expected date of the halving. It’s important to note that while these predictions are made with the best available data, they should be considered as estimates rather than exact timings.
Next BTC Halving Countdown
How To Track The BTC Halving Countdown
To track the BTC halving countdown, enthusiasts and investors can use specialized tools that monitor the current block height and calculate the estimated time until the next BTC halving event based on the average block time. List Of Reliable Countdown Tools
Here are the estimated dates and times for the next BTC halving according to various countdown tools, providing a range of perspectives on when the event is expected to occur:
NiceHash BTC Next Halving Countdown: Estimates the next BTC halving to occur on March 27, 2024, at 19:28 UTC. This tool factors in the current hashrate and block time to provide its countdown.
Bitcoinsensus BTC Halving Countdown: Projects the halving to take place on April 24, 2024, at 04:24:04. Bitcoinsensus provides a detailed countdown timer that updates in real-time.
CoinWarz BTC Halving Countdown: Predicts the halving event will happen on April 20, 2024, at 10:24:21 AM UTC. CoinWarz uses a comprehensive approach to estimate the date and time, considering the latest network data.
Blockchair BTC Halving Countdown: Offers an estimated date and time for the reward drop on April 24, 2024, at 3:22 AM UTC. Blockchair’s countdown is based on sophisticated tracking of blockchain metrics.
Historical Market Trends Pre- And Post-Halving
Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited significant price movements both in anticipation of and following halving events. The halving tends to create a bullish sentiment as the supply of new bitcoins entering the market slows down.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital has delineated the Bitcoin market cycle into five distinct phases surrounding the next BTC halving event, based on historical patterns:
Pre-Halving Period: With approximately 5.5 months until the April 2024 halving, history suggests that any significant price retracements in this phase can offer substantial ROI for investors in the months following the halving.
Pre-Halving Rally: Roughly 60 days before the halving, a rally typically ensues as investors buy into the hype, anticipating a sell-off post-event.
Pre-Halving Retrace: Around the time of the halving, the market often experiences a retrace. This was -38% in 2016 and -20% in 2020, leading to doubts about the halving’s bullish impact.
Re-Accumulation: Post-halving, a period of re-accumulation occurs, often marked by investor exit due to the slow pace of price movement and lack of immediate gains.
Parabolic Uptrend: Once Bitcoin exits the re-accumulation phase, it typically enters a parabolic uptrend, leading to accelerated growth and new all-time highs.
5 Phases Of The Next Bitcoin Halving | Source: X @rektcapital
FAQs About The Next BTC Halving
What Is The Bitcoin Network?
The Bitcoin network is a decentralized digital ledger that records all Bitcoin transactions across a network of computers. It is powered by blockchain technology, which ensures security and transparency by allowing multiple copies of the data to be stored on nodes across the network.
When Is The Next BTC Halving Date?
The next BTC halving is estimated to occur on April 24, 2024, but the exact date may vary based on the network’s hashrate and block time.
Are There Websites For The Next BTC Halving Date?
Yes, there are several websites that provide countdowns to the next BTC halving, including NiceHash, Bitcoinsensus, CoinWarz, and Blockchair.
What Is The Bitcoin Halving?
The Bitcoin halving is an event that halves the rate at which new bitcoins are generated by miners. It occurs every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, as a part of Bitcoin’s deflationary monetary policy.
What Is The BTC Halving Countdown?
The BTC halving countdown is a timer that counts down to the next BTC halving event, indicating how much time is left until the block reward for miners is halved.
Why Are BTC Halvings Occurring Every 4 Years?
BTC halvings are scheduled to occur every 210,000 blocks, which roughly translates to every four years. This is designed to create a predictable and decreasing supply of new bitcoins, mimicking the extraction curve of a finite resource like gold.
What Will Happen After The Last BTC Halving?
After the last Bitcoin halving, no new bitcoins will be created, and miners will be compensated solely with transaction fees for their role in processing transactions and securing the Bitcoin network. This is expected to occur around the year 2140.
The cryptocurrency industry has experienced significant growth in recent weeks with an influx of capital. This influx of capital has forced Bitcoin over various price resistances, with the latest being a brief cross over the $37,000 level. MicroStrategy has emerged as a prominent public company that has successfully capitalized on this price push.
MicroStrategy’s blockbuster bet on the world’s largest cryptocurrency has certainly paid off so far. The company has posted over $1 billion in unrealized profit thanks to Bitcoin’s 36% increase from $26,750 since October 13. Shares of MicroStrategy have also risen simultaneously, soaring more than 55% since the same time period.
MicroStrategy’s Bold Bitcoin Bet Paying Off
MicroStrategy started buying in Bitcoin in 2020 but the latest acquisition came in October, amidst the influx of money into Bitcoin, where the company announced it had acquired an additional 155 BTC for $5.3 million.
MicroStrategy now owns a total of 158,245 BTC, acquired at an average total value of $4.68 billion. At BTC’s current price of around $36,500, MicroStrategy’s BTC investment is now worth over $5.77 billion, representing an unrealized 26% return of $1.1 billion in around three years.
The company’s investment in Bitcoin has also paid off on the back end of its stock price, as it has outperformed many stocks and assets since the adoption of its Bitcoin strategy. The share price has shot up 242% from its open price of $145 at the beginning of the year.
At the time of writing, MicroStrategy share is trading at $497, and Michael Saylor noted that this growth has been largely in part to its innovative Bitcoin strategy.
MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor has been an outspoken proponent of Bitcoin. Saylor’s belief in Bitcoin spearheaded MicroStrategy’s investment in the asset, and a cursory look through his social media page on X shows various posts promoting Bitcoin.
Saylor recently stated, in an interview with Fox Business, that MicroStrategy’s BTC investments were part of a well-planned strategy to rival tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and Apple.
“What we did in August of 2020 was recognize that there’s no way we’re going to outgrow Google and Microsoft and Apple Computer as a mid-sized software company. We realized Bitcoin is like a high-tech dominant digital network growing at 40% or 50% a year, and so we bought it,” he said in the interview.
Saylor also expects the demand for BTC to double in the next 12 months amidst its next halving and the approvals of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. Ultimately, he believes that the price of BTC will eventually reach $5 million.
MicroStrategy isn’t the only company with Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Public companies now own a total of 239,494 BTC, representing 1.23% of the total supply. Marathon Digital, Galaxy Digital, and Tesla are a few of these companies, holding 13,286, 12,545, and 10,500 BTC, respectively.
Featured image from MicroStrategy, chart from Tradingview.com
Explore the dynamics behind Bitcoin’s bullish run and the growing anticipation around a U.S.-based Bitcoin ETF. A deep dive into market trends and predictions.
Over the past few days, Bitcoin (BTC) has demonstrated significant resilience and growth, marking a noteworthy trend in the cryptocurrency market.
Amid a surge in trading volume, BTC price reached its fresh 52-week high of $37,926 on Nov.9. However, amid the volatility, the price retraced and trading at $37,100 as of Nov. 10.
This recent rise is partly attributed to a “short squeeze” – a market phenomenon where the price of an asset jumps higher than expected, forcing short sellers to cover their positions, further driving the price upward.
The ripple effects of Bitcoin’s surge were also felt in the U.S. stock market, particularly among crypto-centric companies.
Shares of prominent firms such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy showed notable increases, with Coinbase rising about 4% and MicroStrategy, holding over 150,000 BTC, increasing almost 5%.
Similarly, mining firms Marathon and Riot also saw substantial gains. This trend reflects growing optimism in the market, especially with the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S.
Let’s delve deeper into these recent developments and try to gauge where BTC is headed in the long run.
Factors underpinning BTC bull market
Bitcoin’s impressive surge, boasting a 123% year-to-date (YTD) gain, presents a remarkable contrast against turbulent macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical tensions.
This performance has led to heightened market sentiment, with traders increasingly optimistic about Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
The options market data reveals traders are positioning themselves for Bitcoin to reach the $40,000 level. This sort of bullish positioning in the options market often reflects broader investor sentiment and can have a self-reinforcing effect on the market.
Meanwhile, the fear and greed index has reached a score of 77, a level comparable to those seen when Bitcoin hit its all-time high in November 2021, indicating a significant shift in investor sentiment.
Adding fuel to the fire, the potential approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, including those from major players like BlackRock, Fidelity, ARK Invest, and 21 Shares, has likely fueled investor optimism.
While the SEC has yet to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF, the open period for approval extends until Jan. 10, 2023, maintaining a level of anticipation in the market.
Bitcoin on-chain metrics analysis
Bitcoin’s on-chain data provides valuable insights into the network’s health, usage patterns, and potential future price movements. Let’s delve into these metrics:
Daily transactions on the BTC network
This metric represents the total number of transactions processed on the Bitcoin network within a 24-hour period. It’s a direct indicator of the network’s usage and activity level.
BTC daily transactions | Source: The Block
The significant increase from 283,000 transactions on Oct. 9 to 553,000 on Nov. 10 indicates a heightened level of activity and engagement within the Bitcoin network. This surge can be associated with increased investor interest, higher trading volumes, and potentially a growing adoption of Bitcoin for various use cases.
Typically, a higher number of daily transactions is viewed positively, as it suggests robust network health and can be a bullish signal for Bitcoin’s price.
Number of new addresses
This metric tracks the number of new Bitcoin addresses created each day. New addresses can signify new users entering the network or existing users generating new addresses for transactions.
The rise from 406,000 new addresses on Oct. 9 to 568,000 on Nov. 10 reflects growing participation in the Bitcoin network.
BTC new addresses | Source: The Block
An increase in new addresses is a precursor to increased demand for Bitcoin, which, in turn, can drive up its price. However, it’s important to note that not all new addresses represent new users, as a single user can generate multiple addresses.
Bitcoin hash rate
The hash rate measures the total computational power used to mine and process transactions on the Bitcoin network. It’s a key security metric, indicating how much computing power is required to hack or manipulate the network.
BTC hash rate | Source: The Block
The jump in hash rate from 256 EH/s on Jan. 1 to 452.01 EH/s as of Nov. 10 is a strong indicator of network security and miner confidence.
A higher hash rate implies more miners are active and investing resources, suggesting their belief in Bitcoin’s profitability and stability.
Generally, a rising hash rate is considered bullish for Bitcoin’s price as it denotes a secure and robust network attractive to both investors and users.
Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction
Reports suggest that an approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could generate significant new demand, potentially leading to a $1 trillion increase in Bitcoin’s market capitalization.
Galaxy Digital, a prominent name in the crypto space, predicts a 74% price increase in Bitcoin in the first year following a spot BTC ETF launch. They used $26,920 as the base price, suggesting more than half the rally has already been exhausted.
This expectation is based on the premise that an ETF would make Bitcoin accessible to a broader range of investors, particularly those in traditional finance who are more comfortable with regulated investment vehicles.
Meanwhile, algorithmic models and Bitcoin forecast websites are projecting optimistic growth for Bitcoin in the coming years.
According to these Bitcoin price predictions, BTC is expected to reach around $74,195 in 2023 and increase further to approximately $90,361 in 2024.
While these BTC forecasts present an encouraging outlook, investors are advised to exercise caution and not to invest more than they can afford to lose.
Cryptocurrency markets, particularly Bitcoin, are known for their volatility, and forecasts should not be the sole basis for investment decisions.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
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