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Tag: Bitcoin

  • Nearly $6.5b in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire

    Nearly $6.5b in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire

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    Over $6.51 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are due to expire on Nov. 24, potentially indicating heightened trading activity.

    A  vast number of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options are set to expire on Nov. 24, potentially influencing market dynamics. This comes in the wake of the U.S. DOJ’s recent criminal charges against the Binance and its hefty $4.3 billion fine. 

    Specifically, about 108,000 BTC options are nearing their expiration date. These options carry a Put Call Ratio of 0.83, indicating a slightly higher inclination towards call options (betting on price increase) than put options (betting on price decrease).

    The ‘max pain point’ for these options is $33,000, which is the price level where the collective holders of the options contracts would experience the most financial loss. The total notional value of these BTC options is a staggering $4.04 billion.

    In parallel, approximately 1.2 million ETH options are also approaching expiration. These have a Put Call Ratio of 0.71, further leaning towards call options. The max pain point for these ETH options is set at $1,700, with a notional value amounting to $2.47 billion.

    The concept of ‘max pain’ in options trading is crucial to understand. It refers to the price level at which the total value of options (both calls and puts) expiring on a certain date will cause the maximum financial loss to the option holders. This concept is often used by traders to assess potential market movements as options near their expiration dates.

    What does it mean?

    When BTC options are set to expire, it means that the contracts, which give the holder the right but not the obligation to buy or sell Bitcoin at a predetermined price (the strike price) by a specified date (the expiration date), are reaching the end of their validity period.

    On the expiration date, these options must be either exercised or they will become worthless. If the market price of Bitcoin is favorable relative to the strike price, the option holder may choose to exercise the option to buy Bitcoin at this lower price. Conversely, if the market price is below the strike price of a put option, the holder may exercise the option to sell Bitcoin at the higher strike price.

    The impending expiration of these options could result in heightened trading activity and potentially unpredictable price movements in the market. Traders and investors are closely monitoring these developments, especially in light of the recent legal actions against Binance, which have already injected notable volatility into the market. 


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    Mohammad Shahidullah

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  • Bitcoiner Overpays $3.1 Million In Largest Ever Transaction Fee

    Bitcoiner Overpays $3.1 Million In Largest Ever Transaction Fee

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    An unknown Bitcoin (BTC) user paid an 83.6 BTC ($3,136,058) transaction fee while moving his coins on Thursday, marking the largest transaction fee the network has ever recorded in dollar terms.

    The total size of the transaction was 139 BTC ($5,198,720.84), meaning less than half of the transfer (55.7 BTC) actually reached the recipient.

    Another Costly Transaction Mistake

    The costly transaction was sent from wallet address bc1qn3d…wekrnl to address bc1qyf…km36t4 on November 23, at Bitcoin block 818087.

    According to mempool.space, the fee was overpaid by a factor of 119,980x, based on the block’s 141/sat/vb cost at the time.

    On Bitcoin, users can voluntarily attach a fee to their transactions so that the network will process them faster.

    Specifically, the Bitcoin miner responsible for building the network’s next block will be more incentivized to include that transaction within the block’s limited storage space, since he will earn the attached fee as a reward.

    Bitcoin includes a feature for senders called “replace by fee” (RBF), with which a still unconfirmed Bitcoin transaction may be replaced by another with a higher fee attached if the first one wasn’t sufficient.

    According to mempool developer @mononautical on X, the sender may not have known that RBF orders cannot be canceled, and repeatedly tried to cancel the transaction with higher fees.

    The transaction’s RBF history shows that the last replacement attempt added another 20% to his transaction fee, adding 12.54 BTC in unnecessary costs.

    What Will Happen To The Money?

    Though the sender and recipient are still unknown, the winner of the block’s fee was Antpool – one of the world’s largest Bitcoin mining pools based in Asia.

    Antpool was responsible for 29.4% of Bitcoin’s total hash rate over the past 3 days and has normally averaged 1.6 BTC in transaction fees per block, according to Hashrate Index.

    Under normal circumstances, mining pool operators split profits from block rewards and fees between themselves and their constituent miners, depending on their specific contractual arrangements.

    However, a similar case involving a large accidental fee sent by Paxos in September was graciously returned later by F2Pool.

    “Antpool I guess would pay it back once contacted by the transactor,” wrote Blockstream CEO and Bitcoin developer Adam Back to X on Tuesday.

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    Andrew Throuvalas

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  • Jim Cramer Comments on Bitcoin: Is the BTC Price in Danger?

    Jim Cramer Comments on Bitcoin: Is the BTC Price in Danger?

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    TL;DR

    • Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a significant increase of over 120% since the start of the year, with Jim Cramer, host of CNBC’s “Mad Money,” recently suggesting that those interested in Bitcoin should consider buying more.
    • Cramer’s past advice on Bitcoin has been inconsistent; in December 2022, he recommended selling crypto positions, calling them “awful,” but BTC’s value has since doubled.
    • Earlier in 2022, Cramer incorrectly assumed the market correction was over and advised increasing exposure to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, not anticipating the severe market downturns, including the Terra crash and FTX meltdown.

    Is BTC Crash Inevitable?

    Bitcoin (BTC) has made a remarkable comeback this year, with its price spiking over 120% since January 1. Despite its impressive performance lately and the anticipation of further gains in the near future, there is one advice that some cryptocurrency participants might find concerning.

    It came from the well-known personality Jim Cramer – host of CNBC’s TV show “Mad Money.” He recently urged those like Bitcoin to increase their exposure to the primary digital asset:

    “Look, if you like Bitcoin, buy Bitcoin. That has always been my view. And for a while, I liked it, and I decided that money had been made, but I was premature, but I made a lot of money.”

    Cramer has made countless comments and predictions involving the largest digital asset by market capitalization, and many times, those forecasts were far from spot on. This might be one reason why investors should be concerned of an inverse reaction and a potential BTC correction in the near future.

    When Was He Wrong?

    In December last year, he advised individuals to sell their “awful” crypto positions, arguing it’s never too late to exit the ecosystem. Recall that BTC has exploded over 100% since that counsel. 

    On another occasion, at the start of 2022 Cramer assumed the market correction was over, suggesting people should increase their exposure to Bitcoin, Ether, and other digital currencies. However, 2022 was far from profitable for crypto investors, witnessing severe collapses such as the Terra crash and the FTX meltdown. 

     

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    Dimitar Dzhondzhorov

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  • Unknown holder paid $3.14m in BTC transfer fees, the highest ever recorded

    Unknown holder paid $3.14m in BTC transfer fees, the highest ever recorded

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    On Nov. 23 an unknown Bitcoin owner sent 139.4 BTC to AntPool, triggering over $3 million in fees.

    According to journalist Colin Wu, the transaction fee was 83.65 BTC.

    Data from analytics platform Whale Alert shows that the user paid $3.14 million to send the funds. This is one of the largest commissions in the history of the crypto industry. The source claims that the AntPool mining pool received the reward for this transfer.

    Source: Whale Alert

    At the time of publication, AntPool representatives did not comment on the transaction. It is also unknown what exactly caused the high transaction fees. As the load on the network increases, transaction fees can also increase.

    This is not the first case of abnormally high fees on the Bitcoin network. In September, an unknown counterparty paid more than $510,000 to transfer 0.074 BTC. It later turned out that this mistake was made by the Paxos company.

    Later, Wang Chong, co-founder of the F2Pool mining pool, reported that 20 BTC that were accidentally sent as a commission were returned back to Paxos.


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    Anna Kharton

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  • Bitcoin Price Returns To Key Resistance As The Bulls Aim For $40K

    Bitcoin Price Returns To Key Resistance As The Bulls Aim For $40K

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    Bitcoin price trimmed all losses and climbed above $37,000. BTC is now eyeing a major upside break above the $37,750 and $38,000 resistance levels.

    • Bitcoin is showing positive signs and testing the $37,750 resistance.
    • The price is trading above $37,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
    • There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $37,150 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
    • The pair could start a major increase if it clears the $38,000 resistance zone.

    Bitcoin Price Regains Strength

    Bitcoin price started a downside correction after reports of Binance’s settlement and CZ stepping down. BTC dropped below the $37,000 support. However, the bulls were active near the $35,650 support zone.

    A low was formed near $35,645 and the price started a fresh increase. It trimmed all losses and climbed above the $37,000 resistance. There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $37,150 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

    The pair even broke the $37,500 level and tested the key hurdle at $37,750. Bitcoin is now trading above $37,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. It is also above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $35,645 swing low to the $37,777 high.

    On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $37,750 level. The main resistance is now forming near the $38,000 level. A close above the $38,0000 resistance might start a strong increase.

    Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

    The next key resistance could be near $38,800. A clear move above the $38,800 resistance could send the price further higher toward the $39,200 level. In the stated case, it could even test the $40,000 resistance.

    Another Rejection In BTC?

    If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $37,750 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Immediate support on the downside is near the $37,150 level.

    The next major support is $36,700 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $35,645 swing low to the $37,777 high. If there is a move below $36,700, there is a risk of more downsides. In the stated case, the price could drop toward the $36,150 support in the near term. The next key support or target could be $35,650.

    Technical indicators:

    Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

    Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

    Major Support Levels – $36,700, followed by $35,650.

    Major Resistance Levels – $37,750, $38,000, and $38,800.

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    Aayush Jindal

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  • Bitcoin Bulls Buckle Up: Seasonal Trends Point To $50,000 Target

    Bitcoin Bulls Buckle Up: Seasonal Trends Point To $50,000 Target

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    Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency on the market, has again failed to consolidate and reach the $38,000 level for the third time, as it is currently experiencing a 3% pullback. This has led the community to speculate that a significant retracement may occur before the bullish momentum resumes and the next uptrend begins. 

    However, renowned crypto analyst Adrian Zduńczyk has recently shed light on Bitcoin’s potential next target of $50,000. Zduńczyk’s analysis considers several crucial factors, including the prevailing bullish market sentiment, the ongoing uptrend, the short-term outlook, miner sentiment, and seasonal trends. 

    Evidence Of Dominant Bull Market

    Zduńczyk notes that the cryptocurrency industry is in a bull market, with Bitcoin reaching a new 52-week high close and experiencing the third wave of the bullish cycle. The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has risen, indicating a favorable environment for Bitcoin. High time frame trends are also rising.

    Zduńczyk identifies key macro support levels for Bitcoin at $29,000 and $27,000, highlighting growing demand fueled by the anticipation of the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the upcoming halving event expected in April 2024.

    Notably, the daily chart for BTC remains in an uptrend, according to Zduńczyk. He points to a target of $40,000, supported by the appearance of a “golden cross” pattern.

    Furthermore, Zduńczyk believes that the rising Simple Moving Average (SMA) 200 serves as “irrefutable evidence” of a dominant bull market since January. These indicators suggest a continuation of the upward trajectory for Bitcoin.

    Zduńczyk also identifies key support levels at $35,000 to $35,800, emphasizing that a bullish sentiment prevails as long as Bitcoin remains above these levels. 

    Zduńczyk Eyes Bitcoin November Target Of $50,000

    Currently, Bitcoin is ranging between $35,500 and $38,000, Zduńczyk notes that the momentum bands are widening, indicating an increase in volatility. The rising 50-day Average True Range (ATR) trend supports this observation.

    Fear & Greed Index stands at 69, indicating a mixed sentiment among market participants. Miners, on average, are enjoying a profit increase of 23%. Zduńczyk maintains a positive outlook based on these factors. 

    Regarding seasonal trends, October demonstrated a gain of 27%, exceeding the average performance. Historically, November has been the best month for Bitcoin, which has an average gain of 43%, with a target of around $50,000. Notably, December typically adds 7% to November’s closing price.

    BTC’s price drop on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    Currently, BTC is trading at $36,400, reflecting a 5% and 22% profit over the past fourteen and thirty days, respectively. The focus now shifts to whether BTC’s price can maintain its crucial support levels and sustain its bullish uptrend, potentially reaching the $50,000 milestone supported by historical patterns.

    Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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    Ronaldo Marquez

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  • Has Bitcoin Reached “Euphoria” Yet? What On-Chain Data Says

    Has Bitcoin Reached “Euphoria” Yet? What On-Chain Data Says

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    Here’s what on-chain data says regarding if the latest Bitcoin rally has hit the overheated “euphoria” stage where past bull runs topped out.

    Bitcoin Percent Supply In Profit Has Now Hit The 83% Mark

    In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about the “euphoric” BTC phase from the angle of investor profitability. Euphoria basically refers to that period of the market where the investors have started embracing greed and the rally is becoming heated.

    Historically, the major rallies in the asset have attained their tops in such market conditions. To define what constitutes euphoria, Glassnode has referred to the “percent supply in profit” metric. This indicator keeps track of the percentage of the total circulating Bitcoin supply that’s currently being held at a profit.

    Here is a chart that shows the trend in this indicator over the past decade:

    The value of the metric seems to have observed a large spike in recent days | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 47, 2023

    As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin percent supply in profit has naturally shot up as the latest rally in the cryptocurrency has occurred and the metric’s value is now floating around the 83% mark.

    The all-time mean of the metric is 74%, so the current levels are notably above this level. In the chart, the analytics firm has also marked the +1 standard deviation line for the indicator, above which the market can be thought to have entered into the early stages of the euphoria phase.

    The +1 standard deviation line for the metric is around 90%, so the current profitability levels are still below the mark but are nonetheless quickly closing in the gap.

    As mentioned before, these profitability levels are in terms of the supply or the coins, calculated by checking for the number of tokens that have their cost basis below the current spot price.

    There is another way to gauge profitability, however, and it’s the magnitude of the profits that these coins are combined are seeing right now. This unrealized profit is naturally calculated by subtracting the cost basis of each coin from the current spot price and summing up these differences for the entire supply in profit.

    Bitcoin Unrealized Profit

    The data for the unrealized profit over the past decade | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 47, 2023

    “For the analysis of investor behavior, often the unrealized profit is a more critical variable as it relates back to the USD-denominated profit of investor positions,” explains Glassnode.

    From the graph, it’s visible that the +1 standard deviation line for this Bitcoin indicator is still quite a distance away from the current value, meaning the coin is far from reaching the euphoric state of the bull market.

    “This suggests that whilst a significant volume of the supply is in profit, most have a cost basis, which is only moderately below the current spot price,” notes the report.

    BTC Price

    Bitcoin has gone through some volatility over the past day following the news of Changpeng Zhao (CZ) stepping down as Binance’s CEO. The asset had earlier slipped below the $36,000 level but has since recovered back to $36,600.

    Bitcoin Price Chart

    Looks like BTC has been mostly trading sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

    Featured image from Yiğit Ali Atasoy on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

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    Keshav Verma

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  • Spot Bitcoin ETF Odds ‘Might Have Increased To 100%’: Matrixport

    Spot Bitcoin ETF Odds ‘Might Have Increased To 100%’: Matrixport

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    Matrixport, a leading digital finance platform, today, November 22, released a comprehensive research note focusing on the significant implications of yesterday’s developments in the crypto industry, particularly regarding the prospects of a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) in the United States.

    Following the guilty plea of Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) and the substantial financial settlements involved, Matrixport suggests that the path for approving a spot Bitcoin ETF might have become significantly clearer. The note highlights the regulatory crackdowns and compliance upgrades in the crypto sector, indicating a shift towards greater regulatory alignment with traditional financial (TradFi) systems.

    “Some would argue that the US agencies have cleaned up the industry this year by dismantling the US crypto-related banks, as two of them were running an internal ledger that crypto companies could use 24/7 to transfer fiat. Arguably, few (perceived) major actors are left, and with Bitcoin only declining -3.4% during the last 24 hours, the market is stomaching a major risk-off event,” Matrixport remarks.

    Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds At 100% Now?

    The company points out that with stringent enforcement actions and enhanced compliance programs becoming the norm among crypto exchanges, the differentiation between regulated and non-regulated cryptocurrency exchanges may become a key metric in 2024. This shift is seen as instrumental in the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US, a development long anticipated by the industry.

    “The result will likely be that more exchanges will enhance their compliance programs and become part of a surveillance-sharing agreement, which will be instrumental in approving a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US,” the firm stated, adding, “With this plea deal, the expectations for a spot Bitcoin ETF might have increased to 100% as the industry will be forced to follow the rules that TradFi firms must follow.”

    The firm believes that this “whitewashing” of the industry will not only enhance Bitcoin’s adoption by institutional players but also position it as a safe-haven asset in investment portfolios. “More importantly, this industry’s whitewashing will strengthen the Bitcoin adoption case for institutional players and will likely become a safe-haven asset in investors’ portfolios,” Matrixport predicts.

    The note also touches on the anticipated sale of the FTX exchange and its potential relaunch under a US securities law-compliant management team by Q3 2024. Matrixport speculates that this could lead to significant inflows, estimated between $24-50 billion, into any US-listed Bitcoin ETF. They also note the increasing trend of crypto firms making markets on CME-listed crypto derivatives, indicating a shift from retail-focused, unregulated exchanges to those that are fully regulated and cater to institutional clients.

    ‘Dark Cloud Has Been Removed’ As ETF Makes Progress

    Analysts and industry experts have echoed Matrixport’s sentiments. Will Clemente, a noted analyst, stated, “With resolution on Binance, just a matter of weeks until Bitcoin ETF approval now.” Tony “The Bull” Severino, head of research at NewsBTC, commented, “A dark cloud has just been removed from the crypto market.” Conversely, Scott Johnsson, a finance lawyer at Davis Polk, offered a more cautious view, suggesting that “It’s far more likely an ETF decision led the Binance resolution than the other way around imo. And I’m not convinced either is that likely.”

    Remarkably, there has been some movement in the spot ETF approval process in the last few days. Ark Invest has kicked off the third round of amendments to the S-1 filings, Grayscale had a meeting with the US Securities and Exchange Commission yesterday regarding its “uplisting.”

    At press time, BTC traded at $36,483.

    BTC reclaims the trend channel, 4-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

    Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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    Jake Simmons

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  • Libra Creator Champions Lightning Network as Bitcoin’s Ultimate Scaling Solution

    Libra Creator Champions Lightning Network as Bitcoin’s Ultimate Scaling Solution

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    Libra creator David Marcus has put forth a compelling argument asserting that the Lightning Network is the singular solution to scale Bitcoin effectively.

    Marcus, a prominent figure in the cryptocurrency space, contends that alternative blockchain products either exhibit excessive centralization or lack the necessary security measures.

    Marcus Advocates for Lightning Network

    In a post on X, Marcus first emphasized Bitcoin’s unparalleled status as a neutral settlement asset and network capable of ushering in a new era of global real-time payments. He posits that the competition falls short on multiple fronts — either excessively centralized, insecure, lacking regulatory clarity, or failing to provide the required liquidity against fiat currencies.

    Marcus asserts the importance of faster and more cost-effective Layer 1 (L1) Bitcoin transactions while maintaining trust and security. He sees the Lightning Network as the key solution, allowing accelerated transactions without compromising fundamental principles.

    Marcus also acknowledges the challenges faced by the Lightning Network in its earlier stages, including complexity, high failure rates for larger transactions, and issues related to managing liquidity and channel rebalancing.

    However, he points out that considerable progress has been made in overcoming these hurdles by developing advanced software and services. As a result, enterprises and custodians can now settle Bitcoin transactions in near-real time at minimal costs, ensuring privacy, compliance, and reliability.

    Marcus acknowledges the Lightning Network’s effectiveness but identifies two challenges: offline receipt for self-custody and high channel open fees for smaller transactions.

    Initiatives by Lightning Labs, SpiralBTC, and Lightspark aim to tackle these issues, though Marcus recognizes potential compromises on trustlessness.

    Looking to the future, Marcus identifies critical areas for improvement. He advocates for the development of fully self-sovereign identity and addressing systems on the Lightning Network. Additionally, he emphasizes the importance of issuing other assets on the network, such as stablecoins, to enhance efficiency for a subset of transactions.

    Initiatives like Taproot Assets by Lightning and RGB by Bitfinex are already in progress, indicating a collective effort to broaden the scope and capabilities of the Lightning Network.

    Lightning Network Developer Responds

    In response to Marcus’ statements, Rene Pickhardt, a Bitcoin and Lightning Network developer, agreed on Lightning’s inherent unreliability by design, contrasting it with stablecoins’ trusted nature. Pickhardt raised concerns about integrating stablecoins into Lightning, suggesting it could create an unreliable trusted fiat IOU token and impact routing liquidity.

    Marcus disagreed, emphasizing Lightning’s reliability and viewing stablecoins as transaction optimization tools, not core dependencies. Pickhardt clarified his statement, saying that Lightning Service Providers enhance application reliability but maintained that Lightning’s protocol lacks certain features, making it unreliable by design.

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    Wayne Jones

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  • Argentina Welcomes First Pro-Bitcoin President, BTC Price Surges Above $37,000

    Argentina Welcomes First Pro-Bitcoin President, BTC Price Surges Above $37,000

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    In a historical moment for both the nation and the crypto community, Argentina has ushered in a new era by welcoming its first-ever pro-Bitcoin President. 

    Argentina Elects Pro Bitcoin President

    On November 19, Argentina released the results of its presidential election. Reports of the election results reveal that right-wing libertarian and Bitcoin advocate, Javier Milei won almost 56% out of 90% of votes counted. While his rival candidate, Minister Sergio Massa garnered 44% of the votes. 

    The momentous victory positions Milei as the face of a new era in Argentina, marked by his stated commitment to solving inflationary problems in the country by abolishing the country’s Central Bank and using digital currencies like Bitcoin. 

    In a public victory speech to his supporters in Buenos Aires, Milei declared that the transformative process of Argentina had just begun and the country was on its way to economic recovery. He promised to work with all the nations to help develop Argentina and make it a better country. 

    “Today begins the reconstruction of Argentina. Today begins the end of Argentina’s decline. The model of decadence has come to an end. There is no way back,” Milei stated. 

    He further added that “Argentina will return to its place in the world that it should never have lost. We are going to work shoulder-to-shoulder with all nations of the free world, to help build a better world.”

    Former President of the United States, Donald Trump commended Milei on securing victory in the Argentinian Presidential election. He expressed his pride in Milei’s incredible feat and stated his anticipation for Milei’s efforts in restoring Argentina. 

    “Congratulations to Javier Milei on a great race for President of Argentina. The whole world was watching! I am very proud of you. You will turn your Country around and truly Make Argentina Great Again,” Trump stated. 

    BTC Price Surges As Argentina Embraces New Era Of Crypto

    Following the news of Javier Milei’s victory in Argentina’s Presidential elections, Bitcoin price has been on an upward trend, trading above the $37,000 mark. The price of the cryptocurrency at the time of writing is $37,199 according to CoinMarketCap. 

    One of Milei’s primary policy plans as Argentina’s President is to discontinue the use of the Argentinian peso and adopt the United States Dollar as the country’s main currency. He has also mulled over the introduction of Bitcoin as a potential legal tender and declared possibilities of launching a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in Argentina. 

    While the proposals aim to significantly reduce the long-lasting inflationary crisis in the Argentinian economy, the involvement of Bitcoin could potentially herald a new wave of economic growth for the crypto industry.

    BTC recovers following Milei's win | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

    Featured image from Cryptopolitan, chart from Tradingview.com

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    Scott Matherson

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  • Crypto Analyst Projects $7 Trillion Market Cap For Altcoins – Here’s When

    Crypto Analyst Projects $7 Trillion Market Cap For Altcoins – Here’s When

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    The altcoins market has been on a tear over the past few weeks, thanks to the resurgence of the premier cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and the shifting climate of the general crypto market. Although the recent momentum of the altcoin market seems to be waning, there is still broad optimism amongst many investors and analysts.

    Mags, a popular crypto analyst on the X (formerly Twitter) platform, has offered insight into the current landscape of the crypto assets class and its future prospects as the bull market seemingly approaches.

    Altcoins To Go Parabolic Again?

    In a post on X, Mags put forward a bold forecast for the altcoins market capitalization and expects the value of most cryptocurrencies to go parabolic in the coming years. The crypto analyst’s bullish argument revolves around the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator on the monthly timeframe of the altcoin chart. On the highlighted chart, the monthly MACD is on the verge of making a bullish cross. 

    From a historical standpoint, the crypto analyst cited that a similar bullish cross occurred on the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator in 2020. Following this cross, the altcoins market cap skyrocketed by more than 2,000% from $85 billion to $1.73 trillion. If this MACD cross forms again, Mags expects a similar bull run for the altcoins market.

    In what seemed like a more realistic stance, the crypto analyst postulated a surge to a $7 trillion market cap by 2025, even if the altcoins experience only half of the 2020 growth. This represents a roughly 1,000% rally from the current altcoin market cap of $637 billion.

    According to data provided by CoinGecko, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $1.429 trillion, with Bitcoin maintaining its place as the largest cryptocurrency (market cap of more than 700 billion).

    Bitcoin Reclaims Dominance In Crypto Market

    According to a recent report by Santiment, Bitcoin seems to be back to dominating the altcoins after a good run in the past month. The on-chain analytics platform highlighted that most cryptocurrencies have been witnessing a price correction at the tail end of the week.

    Many of the tokens in the altcoin class, including recent top performers like Solana, Cardano, and Avalanche, appear to be slowing down. Nevertheless, Santiment said that swift price rebounds could occur “if the crowd begins to get worried and show FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt).”

    Cryptocurrency market cap excluding Bitcoin on the daily timeframe | Source: TOTAL2 chart on TradingView

    Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView

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    Opeyemi Sule

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  • SEC delays verdict on Franklin and Globe X’s Bitcoin ETF

    SEC delays verdict on Franklin and Globe X’s Bitcoin ETF

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    The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has once again postponed its decision on whether to approve the country’s first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund. Documents released on Nov. 17, reveal that the regulator has deferred decisions on filings from Franklin and Globe X. 

    This deferral follows delays for other applicants, as both companies submitted their initial applications later than some of their competitors.

    The postponement of decisions on these two spot Bitcoin ETF applications, Franklin and Globe X Bitcoin Trust, contributes to the prevailing uncertainty regarding the approval of such crypto-based investment products.

    This development comes amid increased interest in cryptocurrency-based ETFs, exemplified by Fidelity Investments’ recent filing to list its Ethereum spot Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) product with the SEC.

    Meanwhile, BitGo CEO Mike Belshe anticipates more challenges for the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, pointing to unresolved market structure issues as a significant hurdle.

    Crypto bulls regaining momentum

    Grayscale’s recent legal victory against the SEC in its quest for spot BTC ETF glory, has caused notable market shifts, fostering optimism for Bitcoin and altcoins.

    The court’s decision has particularly boosted Ripple‘s XRP, triggering a significant 6% surge post-ruling. Observers have argued that Grayscale’s triumph sets the stage for a potential breakthrough in the creation of the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S.

    The court ruling emphasized the SEC’s inability to justify its disparate treatment of Bitcoin futures ETFs and spot Bitcoin ETFs, hinting at a potential shift in the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrency investment products. 

    Grayscale’s legal success has ignited discussions on the prospect of increased institutional participation in the crypto sector. While the immediate impact is positive, ongoing developments in the SEC v. Ripple lawsuit and the broader regulatory framework will continue to shape the course of XRP and the overall cryptocurrency market.

    Following these positive developments, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced an almost 30% rally over the past month. At the time of filing this report, the world’s largest digital currency is up by approximately 1%, in the last 24 hours, exchanging hands for $36,662. In the same vein, the global crypto market cap stands at $1.44 trillion, representing a 0.7% increase in the daily timeframe, according to CoinGecko.

    In 2023 alone, over a dozen companies have sought approval for spot Bitcoin ETFs, and now, several others are applying for similar products tied to ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency. 

    The regulator has not revealed its stance on these recent applications. Earlier rejections raised concerns about market manipulation and a lack of surveillance-sharing agreements for Bitcoin. 

    Applicants argue that these concerns have been addressed or are no longer relevant, especially after the approval of Bitcoin futures ETFs, a viewpoint supported by an appeals court earlier this year. The SEC has yet to make final decisions on these applications, causing delays.

    No ETF hope in sight  

    The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has also postponed its decision on Hashdex’s application to transform its current Bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund (ETF) into a spot vehicle. Additionally, the agency has also deferred its decision on Grayscale’s proposal to introduce a new Ether ETF based on futures. 

    Last September, both Hashdex and Grayscale submitted filings to convert their respective Bitcoin futures ETFs into spot Bitcoin ETFs. The initial deadline for both filings to receive a decision was on Nov. 17, but the SEC has extended this timeframe.


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    Ogwu Osaemezu Emmanuel

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  • Miss El Salvador Reps Nation’s Bitcoin Miners With Volcanic Goddess Costume

    Miss El Salvador Reps Nation’s Bitcoin Miners With Volcanic Goddess Costume

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    The 2023 Miss Universe pageant’s preliminary costume contest kicked off on Thursday – and Miss El Salvador’s outfit proved to be a hometown hit.

    The contestant donned a “volcanic empowerment costume” reminiscent of the nation’s signature volcanoes, which are being leveraged by the government to mine Bitcoin (BTC).

    El Salvador and Volcanic Empowerment

    As she took the stage, this year’s Miss El Salvador – Isabella García-Manzo – was welcomed by the San Salvador crowd with thunderous applause.

    Her costume featured a massive crown depicting the sun, and a bright orange dress that turned crimson, then charcoal back toward the train. The crown and back of the dress “ignited” bright orange in the dark, and erupted into a series of bright flames in its final phase.

    Miss El Salvador 2023. Source: @MissUniverso_sv on X

    “It honors the transformative power of nature and the human spirit,” said the pageant’s announcer. “It features an eruption of volcano elements, symbolizing the rebirth of the country.”

    During the costume’s preparation phase, one of its designers called its model a “volcanic goddess.”

    “When I thought about when a volcano eruption happens, and what an eruption represents… something ends, something begins,” she said. “With that in mind, I wanted to still represent the ideals of the volcano.”

    El Salvador has experienced a slew of transformative changes over the past three years – one of which included making Bitcoin legal tender in 2021. Though the use of the currency remains limited on the ground, its adoption has helped double the nation’s tourism figures since 2019.

    Last year’s Miss El Salvador wore an outfit directly related to Bitcoin, including a Bitcoin-themed staff and a coin-shaped Bitcoin suit. Its designer, Francisco Guerrero, said the costume depicted El Salvador’s evolution of currency – from cocoa all the way to BTC.

    El Salvador’s Bitcoin Initiatives

    In 2023, the Salvadoran government announced a major public-private partnership with Volcano Energy to deploy $1 billion toward sustainable Bitcoin mining. Backed by Tether, the initiative will send 23% of the revenue it generates to the government, with another 50% re-deployed toward building out infrastructure.

    Only $250 million has been raised for the initiative so far, which will solely go toward wind and solar-based mining. Geothermal-based mining will be built out down the line.

    One year ago, El Salvador President Nayib Bukele promised that El Salvador would start purchasing 1 BTC per day. Bitcoin’s price has more than doubled since that time.

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    Andrew Throuvalas

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  • Failed Bearish Signal Could Send Bitcoin To $85K Next Month

    Failed Bearish Signal Could Send Bitcoin To $85K Next Month

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    Bitcoin recently gave a bearish signal, which ultimately failed to produce a meaningful pullback.

    Due to the technical failure, historical data suggests that in only a matter of a month BTCUSD could set a new all-time high and reach a target of $85K per coin. Here’s why.

    Why Failed Bearish Technicals Produce Bullish Breakouts

    In technical analysis, certain patterns are considered characteristically bearish or bullish. For example, the ascending triangle is a typically bullish-leaning pattern, but only breaks upward 63% of the time. The other 37%, the pattern breaks down bearish.

    Because of the nature of how orders and stop losses are stacked on either side of a pattern’s trend lines, a failed bullish pattern can be extremely bearish and vice-versa. Dissecting further, since the pattern was visibly bullish, it could have attracted more long-side positioning that is forced to unwind lower.

    Recently, Bitcoin price gave a bearish TD9 sell setup on the weekly TD Sequential. However, no major correction followed. When this occurs, it often results in a sizable move in the opposite direction of the signal.

    More simply put, the failed TD9 sell setup could mean a massive move higher. And how high price could go and how fast might shock you.

    Could BTC reach $85K in four weeks? | BTCUSD on TradingView.com

    Market Timing Tool Hints At Bitcoin Rally To $85K

    The TD Sequential is a market timing indicator developed by Thomas Demark. A TD9 setup or TD13 countdown is a specific sequence of candles that signal trend exhaustion.

    Back in 2020 when this same signal failed, Bitcoin blasted off to new all-time highs above $20,000 and then some. It rallied 143% in the four weeks following the signal and over 300% more in total when it was all said and done.

    If the same magnitude move followed this recently failed TD9 sell setup, Bitcoin price would reach $85,000 by the end of December. Another 300% beyond the current all-time high in BTCUSD would take the top cryptocurrency to over $200,000 per coin in total.

    In terms of lower prices, the indicator also provides TDST support and resistance levels. These levels rise and fall with each completed TD setup. This latest setup caused TDST floor price support to raise from $10,000 to $25,000, reducing the chances that BTCUSD ever trades below that price again.

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    Tony "The Bull" Severino

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  • Bitcoin Open Interest Tops 19-Month High: Historical Data Shows What To Expect

    Bitcoin Open Interest Tops 19-Month High: Historical Data Shows What To Expect

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    The Bitcoin open interest can often be an indication of where the BTC price might be headed next depending on whether or not the metric is rising or falling. This time around, the Bitcoin open interest has risen drastically, hitting 19-month highs in the process. Using historical data, it is possible to extrapolate what this means for the crypto’s price, especially as investors remain very bullish.

    Bitcoin Open Interest Surges To $17.04 Billion

    In an interesting turn of events, the Bitcoin open interest has been rising quickly across various exchanges. In the last 24 hours alone, this metric rose by a cumulative 7.89% across all exchanges in the space, bringing the total open interest to 454,150 BTC worth a staggering $17.04 billion.

    For now, most of the Bitcoin open interest is concentrated across the CME, Binance, and ByBit exchanges. But perhaps what is even more interesting is that these open interest levels represent a 19-month high.

    Source: CoinGlass

    According to the data presented on the CoinGlass website, the last time that the Bitcoin open interest moved in this fashion and to this high was back in March 2022, before the historical Terra LUNA crash that sent the market into a prolonged bear market stretch.

    This means that the last time that the Bitcoin open interest rose this much was during a time when investors were still very much in the throes of bull run euphoria. As such, the historical performance of the BTC price back then in relation to the open interest could serve as a guide to what might happen to the digital asset’s price next.

    BTC price chart from Tradingview.com (Bitcoin open interest)

    BTC price finds support at $37,400 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

    Historical Data Says BTC Price Will Surge

    Similar to the current trend, the Bitcoin open interest had surged from around 38,000 BTC to over 44,000 BTC in the space of a month, and the BTC price followed quickly. This trend saw the price rise in March 2022 from $38,700 to over $47,000 before the month was over.

    Going by this historical performance and assuming Bitcoin sticks to this trend, the rally may be far from over. The BTC price is also sitting at a similar price point at $37,500 and a similar surge could bring its price toward $45,000 before the month is over.

    However, there is also the possibility that the open interest could peak at this level and begin to decline. Once this happens, then in the same fashion as in April 2022, the BTC price could begin to decline as the open interest drops. A similar crash would send the price back down toward $27,000.

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    Best Owie

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  • Bitcoin’s Taproot Wizards secures $7.5m funding from Standard Crypto

    Bitcoin’s Taproot Wizards secures $7.5m funding from Standard Crypto

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    Bitcoin’s Taproot Wizards project received a fresh $7.5 million investment from Standard Crypto to transform the blockchain ecosystem and compete with major players like Ethereum and Solana.

    The Taproot Wizards project, known for its Bitcoin Ordinals initiative, has successfully raised $7.5 million in funding, spearheaded by VC firm Standard Crypto. Founded by Udi Wertheimer and Eric Wall, Taproot Wizards draws inspiration from a classic Bitcoin wizard meme that circulated on Reddit over 10 years ago. The project aims to reshape perceptions of the Bitcoin blockchain. 

    The investment attracted a diverse group of backers, including Geometry, Collider Ventures, StarkWare, UTXO Management, Bitcoin Frontier Fund, Masterkey and Newman Capital. This influx of capital is earmarked for the development of what the founders term a “wizard village,” symbolizing a commitment to rival leading blockchains such as Ethereum and Solana. Eric Wall emphasized their goal to pioneer a fresh approach to Bitcoin engagement.

    Investment Impact and Future Vision

    Standard Crypto co-founder Alok Vasudev sees immense potential in Taproot Wizards, and believes it could become similar to the Bored Ape Yacht Club, as revealed in an interview with TechCrunch. Vasudev envisions opportunities beyond brand expansion, including the development of a dynamic infrastructure within the Bitcoin ecosystem. Standard Crypto aims to be an active participant in this evolution, moving beyond merely overseeing an NFT collection.

    Taproot Wizards has a unique collection of 2,121 wizards, mirroring the total Bitcoin supply of 21 million. To date, 2106 of these digital creations, representing 99.3% of the total, have been inscribed. However, only 20 of these have been released. The slow release strategy, according to Wertheimer, is deliberate, aiming to sustain long-term interest and attract individuals committed to their mission, rather than fleeting trends.


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    Mohammad Shahidullah

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  • Bitcoin Bulls Are Back! Latest Signal Confirms Bullish Trend is Brewing

    Bitcoin Bulls Are Back! Latest Signal Confirms Bullish Trend is Brewing

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    Those burned by the last big Bitcoin bull run are rightfully skeptical that another one is here so soon. However, a trend strength indicator is now confirming the existence of a new bullish trend emerging.

    Are bulls finally back in control over crypto? Sidelined investors and traders will want to pay attention.

    How Technicals Could Confirm A New Bullish Trend In Bitcoin

    Bitcoin price is pulling back after a few failed attempts to make it though $38,000 resistance. This sudden weakness after a major breakout is both reassuring for bears and confusing for bulls. Those on the sidelines still aren’t certain what to do.

    But that’s what technical indicators were designed for – to eliminate noise and emotions, allowing the tools to make the decisions for you.

    According to a trend strength measuring tool called the Average Directional Index, the bullish Bitcoin trend just became official as the indicator reaches above a reading of 20. The last time that BTCUSD reached above 20 while bulls were in control was back in August 2020, prior to a 450%+ rally.

    For comparison sake, another 450% rally would put the price per coin around $200,000. However, each individual trend behaves differently and tops out at different ADX reading. This means anything is possible, but for now, the rise above 20 on the ADX is notable.

    The trend is confirmed by a reading above 20 | BTCUSD on TradingView.com

    How To Tell Bulls Are In Control Of Crypto With The ADX

    The Average Directional Index, as mentioned, is a trend strength measuring tool. It was created by J. Welles Wilder, Jr., known as the father of several technical analysis indicators. Wilder also developed the Relative Strength Index, Average True Range, and Parabolic SAR.

    The ADX confirms a trend is active above a reading of 20, while anything below 20 suggests a weak trend and potential sideways price action. The tool often includes two additional indicators, the DI+ and DI-, which show which side of the market is in control of price action.

    If the DI+ is above the DI- bulls are in control. Bears are in control if DI- is above DI+. The premise is simple and provides an easy way to visually see which side of the market is dominating.

    Not only are bulls in control, but the DI+ is at 36, while the highest reading back in August 2020 was 32. This means that bulls are stronger now than they were back then, and look what happened.

    The above chart was originally featured in Issue #27 of CoinChartist VIP: The Ethereum Issue. Check out the latest issue for free.

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    Tony "The Bull" Severino

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  • Bitcoin Price Rallies 5% and Seems Primed To Clear the $38K Hurdle

    Bitcoin Price Rallies 5% and Seems Primed To Clear the $38K Hurdle

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    Bitcoin price restarted its increase from the $34,650 support. BTC is up over 5% and now attempting a move above the $38,000 resistance zone.

    • Bitcoin started a fresh rally from the $34,650 support zone.
    • The price is trading above $36,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
    • There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $36,300 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
    • The pair could continue to move up if it clears the $38,000 resistance zone.

    Bitcoin Price Trims All Losses

    Bitcoin price started a downside correction from the $38,000 resistance. BTC declined below the $36,000 and $35,500 levels. The price even spiked below $35,000. However, the bulls were active near the $34,650 support zone.

    A low was formed near $34,666 and the price started a fresh increase. There was a sharp increase above the $36,000 and $37,000 levels. There was also a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near $36,300 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

    Bitcoin price is up over 5% and it retested the $38,000 resistance zone. A high is formed near $37,950 and the price is now consolidating gains. It is also trading above $36,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $34,666 swing low to the $37,950 high.

    On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $37,850 level. The next key resistance could be near $38,000 or the recent high. A close above the $38,000 resistance could start a strong increase.

    Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

    The first major resistance is near $38,800, above which the price might accelerate further higher. In the stated case, it could test the $39,200 level. Any more gains might send BTC toward the $40,000 level.

    More Losses In BTC?

    If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $38,000 resistance zone, it could start another downside correction. Immediate support on the downside is near the $37,450 level.

    The next major support is $36,500 or the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If there is a move below $36,500, there is a risk of more downsides. In the stated case, the price could drop toward the $35,850 support in the near term.

    Technical indicators:

    Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

    Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 60 level.

    Major Support Levels – $37,450, followed by $36,500.

    Major Resistance Levels – $37,850, $38,000, and $38,800.

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    Aayush Jindal

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  • Bitcoin Macro Index Enters ‘Expansion’, Echoing 400% Bull Run

    Bitcoin Macro Index Enters ‘Expansion’, Echoing 400% Bull Run

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    In a detailed market update, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investment, has provided an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin’s current market position, highlighting a pivotal shift to an ‘expansion’ phase in the Bitcoin Macro Index. This transition is particularly noteworthy as it parallels conditions observed prior to historical price surges in Bitcoin’s valuation.

    Bitcoin has recently experienced a sharp uptick, ascending from $34,000 to an interim high of $38,000. After a brief period of resistance, the price corrected to approximately $36,500. Edwards highlights this movement as a critical technical victory, with Bitcoin overcoming and holding above the major resistance benchmarks of $35,000 on both the weekly and monthly timeframes.

    This consolidation above key resistance levels sets a bullish context in the high timeframe technical analysis, positioning Bitcoin in a strong technical stance according to traditional market indicators. “The recent breakout into the 2021 range offers the best high timeframe technical setup we have seen in years. Provided $35K holds on a weekly and monthly basis in November, the next significant resistance is range high ($58-65K).”

    Bitcoin price analysis | Source: Capriole Investments

    Bitcoin Macro Index Enters Expansion

    The crux of Edwards’ update is the shift in the Bitcoin Macro Index, a complex model synthesizing over 40 metrics encompassing Bitcoin’s on-chain data, macro market indicators, and equity market influences. The index does not take price as an input, thus providing a ‘pure fundamentals’ perspective.

    The current expansion is the first since November 2020, and only the third instance since the index’s inception, with the two previous occasions leading to substantial price rallies in the following periods. Edwards elucidates this with a direct quote: “The transition from recovery to expansion is simply the optimal time to allocate to Bitcoin from a risk-reward opportunity for this model.”

    A look at the Bitcoin chart reveals that the Bitcoin price rose by a whopping 400% during the last bull run from early November 2020 to November 2021, after the Macro Index entered the expansion phase. The first historical signal was provided by the Macro Index on November 9, 2016, which was followed by a massive bull run of almost 2,600% until Bitcoin reached its then all-time high of $20,000 in February 2018.

    Bitcoin Macro Index
    Bitcoin Macro Index | Source: Capriole Investments

    Short-Term Technicals And Derivatives Market Analysis

    In the short term, the technical outlook presents a mixed picture, according to Edwards. The derivative markets are indicating an overheated state, with low timeframe analysis suggesting a retracement could be imminent. Edwards introduces the ‘Bitcoin Heater’ metric, recently launched on Capriole Charts, which aggregate various derivatives market data and quantify the level of market risk based on the open interest and heating level of perpetuals, futures, and options markets.

    The below chart shows that most of the time when the Bitcoin Heater is above 0.8, the market corrects or consolidates. “But there are large exceptions to the rule: such as the primary bull market rally from November 2020 through to Q1 2021. […] We should expect this metric to be high more frequently in 2024 (much like Q4 2020 – 2021),” Edwards stated.

    Bitcoin Heater
    Bitcoin Heater | Source: Capriole Investments

    The analyst concluded that the overall trend for Bitcoin remains positive, with major data points indicating a strong bullish scenario. However, he also cautioned about potential short-term risks in the low timeframe technicals and derivatives market. These, according to him, are common in the development of a bull run and could offer valuable opportunities if dips occur.

    At press time, BTC traded at $35,626.

    Bitcoin price
    Bitcoin price re-enters trend channel, 2-hour chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

    Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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    Jake Simmons

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  • BlackRock spotlights stablecoin risks in Bitcoin ETF filing

    BlackRock spotlights stablecoin risks in Bitcoin ETF filing

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    In a recent filing for a spot Bitcoin ETF, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has highlighted the indirect risks posed by stablecoins, emphasizing the nuanced complexities of the crypto market.

    BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has made headlines with its application for a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). The application, keenly awaited by the digital asset sector, includes a notable mention of stablecoins as a risk factor, an aspect that has drawn considerable attention.

    Stablecoins, digital currencies like Tether USD (USDT) and Circle USD (USDC), are designed to maintain a stable value as they are pegged to traditional currencies. In its filing, BlackRock highlights that while the ETF does not directly invest in stablecoins, there exists an indirect exposure to the risks they pose to Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market. This acknowledgment is significant, considering the firm’s stature and stablecoins becoming increasingly pivotal in digital asset transactions.

    The inclusion of stablecoins in the risk assessment reflects a nuanced understanding of the interconnected nature of the crypto ecosystem. BlackRock’s caution stems from the historical volatility of stablecoins and their potential impact on Bitcoin’s price (BTC).

    This perspective resonates with concerns raised by U.S. regulators, such as the Federal Reserve, which have previously labeled stablecoins as a financial risk.

    BlackRock’s move to file for a spot Bitcoin ETF is part of a broader race among various financial entities, both from traditional finance and the digital asset industry, to capitalize on the growing interest in cryptocurrencies.

    The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s decision on these filings is highly anticipated, as it could significantly influence the future of crypto investments.


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    Bralon Hill

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