Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered highlights three factors for Bitcoin’s potential surge to $100,000: rising overall market cap of digital assets, the April 2024 Bitcoin halving, and the expected launch of the first US spot BTC ETF.
Kendrick predicts Bitcoin’s peak might occur 12-18 months post-halving, with early introduction of US spot ETFs possibly pushing BTC to $100,000 before end-2024.
Prominent figures like investor Robert Kiyosaki and Blockstream CEO Adam Back also forecast Bitcoin reaching $100,000, citing a weakening US dollar and bullish trends pre-halving.
What Could Drive BTC’s Possible Surge?
Bitcoin’s impressive price spike throughout 2023 has given many analysts the opportunity to speculate whether the uptrend is about to continue in the near future. One person who shares that thesis is Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of FX research.
According to him, there are three crucial factors that might trigger a price explosion toward the coveted level of $100,000 next year. The first one is the potential rising dominance of Bitcoin over the alternative coins:
“Going forward, then, we expect digital assets’ rising overall market cap to be a bigger driver of BTC price upside than a continued rise in BTC dominance within the space.”
Another element that might play a role is the Bitcoin halving (scheduled for April 2024). Kendrick assumed that the valuation of the asset might peak 12-18 months after the event.
Last but not least, he believes that the launch of the first spot BTC ETF in America is just around the corner and that it could also cause a bull run for the asset:
“We now expect more price upside to materialize before the halving than we previously did, specifically via the earlier-than-expected introduction of US spot ETFs. This suggests a risk that the USD 100,000 level could be reached before end-2024.”
Who Else Believes BTC Could Jump to $100K?
Numerous prominent figures have predicted over the years that Bitcoin would eventually hit the $100,000 milestone.
One example is Robert Kiyosaki – an American investor, motivational speaker, and author of the book “Rich Dad, Poor Dad.” According to him, 2024 would be devastating for the US dollar, which could propel a price explosion for BTC toward $120,000.
The British cryptographer and CEO of Blockstream – Adam Back – has also laid out a bullish forecast, envisioning the asset to reach $100K before the halving.
Those curious to dive deeper into the matter and explore additional BTC predictions coming from well-known individuals could take a look at our video below:
International broker Interactive Brokers has partnered with OSL to offer retail customers crypto trading in Hong Kong.
American trading giant Interactive Brokers has become the first securities broker in Hong Kong to be approved to allow retail customers to trade crypto.
In an effort to expand its services in the city the brokerage giant selected OSL, Hong Kong’s public cryptocurrency company, to trade Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), according to a blog announcement published by OSL on Nov. 28 2023. Under the partnership agreement, Interactive Brokers’ retail investors in Hong Kong now have access to crypto trading “through a single unified platform powered by OSL.”
“This expansion with Interactive Brokers is a testament to our enduring commitment to lead the regulated evolution of the digital asset market.”
OSL CEO Hugh Madden
David Friedland, Head of APAC for Interactive Brokers, said the latest expansion is in line with the firm’s core mission as demand for cryptocurrency exposure as a means of diversification “continues to rise.” The New York-based broker will charge users in Hong Kong 0.20% – 0.30% of trade value, depending on monthly volume, with a $2.25 minimum per order.
On Nov. 24, 2023 the Hong Kong-based securities firm Victory Securities also shared that it had received approval from the Securities & Futures Commission of Hong Kong to provide virtual asset trading and consulting services to retail investors.
According to Victory Security’s executive director Chen Peiquan, this achievement marks a historic milestone, positioning the firm as the inaugural licensed corporation in Hong Kong to be granted permission to extend these services to retail investors.
Cardano co-founder Charles Hoskinson blasted U.S. regulators on Monday for labeling ADA and other cryptocurrencies as unregistered securities while giving bitcoin (BTC) a “complete pass” from the same level of scrutiny.
According to the developer, Bitcoin could easily meet the legal criteria of an investment contract due to the “overly broad” nature of securities laws.
How the SEC Defines a Security
During a Monday livestream, one of Hoskinson’s viewers asked him to “talk about the SEC” – one of two chief U.S. market regulators behind a downpour of enforcement actions against the crypto industry this year. “Everything is a security right now, according to the SEC,” replied Hoskinson.
Gary Gensler – chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) – has repeatedly suggested that the vast majority of cryptocurrencies besides bitcoin are securities. This creates legal hurdles for firms trying to do business with other coins, based on legal interpretations that many in the industry do not see as valid.
“They would say Bitcoin and Ethereum were a security, if they could get away with it,” Hoskinson told viewers. “Baseball cards could be securities if they really wanted them to be.”
When identifying securities, the SEC follows the “Howey Test,” which requires that an asset involve an investment of money in a common enterprise, with an expectation of profits based on the efforts of others.
Gensler said earlier this year that non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies almost certainly have a central group of entrepreneurs backing them, meeting securities criteria in a way that Bitcoin doesn’t.
“At the most basic level, they are trying to promote their tokens and entice investors,” he told Intelligencer in an interview.
Hoskinson’s Argument
Hoskinson, however, says Bitcoin is centralized in other ways. “If you subpoena an attack on about three different entities, you could perform a 51% attack on Bitcoin because that’s the way the hash power works,” he claimed.
The coin’s investors also largely share an “expectation of returns” said Hoskinson, referring to them as “orange-pill moon boys.”
“Explain to me the fucking difference between Bitcoin and Ethereum and Cardano and the rest of the gang,” he continued. “Run the goddamn Howey Test on it.”
Hoskinson supports U.S. Congress drafting new legislation to pass “clear rules” for crypto so that the industry will stop being a major target for regulators.
Three of crypto’s largest exchange platforms – Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken – are currently being sued by the SEC for securities violations.
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The vice chairman of multinational holding company Berkshire Hathaway once described cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence as “overhyped” and “stupid”.
Charlie Munger, the billionaire vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, has died. He was 99.
Munger, an integral force at Berkshire since 1959, played a pivotal role in shaping the company into a global conglomerate with a market capitalization of $784 billion.
Munger served as vice chairman alongside Warren Buffett, contributing significantly to its success.
Munger was a multifaceted figure, co-founding Munger, Tolles & Olson in California and later chairing Wesco Financial Corporation, a Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary.
Renowned for his insightful investment philosophies, Munger — as well as Buffett — were fierce skeptics of cryptocurrencies.
While the pair often advocated for ethical business standards and steered away from troubled businesses at a discount, they often emphasized the importance of investing in businesses at fair prices, and denounced speculative investments like Bitcoin.
Born on Jan. 1, 1924, in Omaha, Nebraska, Munger’s journey included a stint in the U.S. Army Air Corps, studies at Caltech, and a law degree from Harvard Law School.
His philanthropic focus on education extended to contributions to the University of Michigan Law School, Stanford University and the University of California, Santa Barbara.
His critical stance on cryptocurrencies, as well as artificial intelligence, earned attention, with Munger referring to both as “overhyped” and “stupid.”
At the time of his passing, Munger had a net worth of $2.7 billion, according to Forbes.
Data shows altcoins have been losing correlation with Bitcoin recently, and among them, XRP and BNB have seen particularly pronounced decoupling.
XRP & BNB Have Seen Largest Drops In 60-Day Correlation To Bitcoin
As pointed out by an analyst in a post on X, BTC has recently seen a drop in correlation with the altcoins. The “correlation” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of how tied the prices of any two assets are right now.
When the value of this metric is positive, it means that the given assets respond to moves in each other’s price by moving in the same direction. The closer the indicator’s value is to 100%, the stronger this correlation is.
On the other hand, negative values imply that there is a negative correlation between the assets, as their prices are moving opposite to each other. In this case, the extreme is -100%, so the more negative the value, the more tight the relationship is.
The 0% mark represents the point where no correlation exists between the prices, implying that movements in one have no bearing on how the other might perform.
Now, here is a chart that shows what the 60-day correlation between Bitcoin’s daily log returns and various altcoins looks like right now, as well as how it compared a year back:
Looks like XRP has seen the strongest decoupling out of these coins | Source: @CryptoBusy on X
As displayed in the above graph, the 60-day correlation between Bitcoin and XRP appears to have significantly decreased in this period, as it has plunged from nearly 80% to almost 40%. This means that XRP’s price has been moving much more independently of BTC during the past 60 days.
BNB (BNB), Avalanche (AVAX), and Solana (SOL) have also seen some decoupling from the original cryptocurrency. Still, these alts have seen the indicator decline by much less than XRP has observed.
Cardano (ADA) and Dogecoin (DOGE) are the altcoins that have observed the least amount of change. However, in the case of the memecoin the correlation was lesser than the other assets to begin with, so even with the small decoupling, its correlation level is still matching that of BNB.
Generally, correlation is something to watch for whenever an investor is trying to diversify their portfolio, as two assets with significant correlation wouldn’t provide much safety.
Thus, as XRP is currently the cryptocurrency least correlated with Bitcoin on this list, it might be a better diversification option than coins like Ethereum (ETH) or Polygon (MATIC), which have the 60-day value of the indicator at relatively high levels still.
XRP Price
Just a few days back, XRP had revisited the territory above the $0.63 mark, but it wasn’t long before it slipped again and went under the $0.60 level. Since this low, though, the cryptocurrency has seen some recovery, as it has now neared $0.61 once again.
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin SOPR hasn’t yet reached high levels that have been associated with heated bull market phases in the past.
Bitcoin SOPR Has Only Seen Mildly Positive Values Recently
In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has explained how market psychology has driven the BTC price during the past few years. The on-chain indicator that best represents the Bitcoin trader psychology according to the quant is the “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR).
The SOPR basically tells us about whether the BTC investors are selling their coins (or more precisely, transferring them on the blockchain) at a net amount of profit or loss.
When the indicator has a value greater than 1, it means that the average holder in the sector is selling their coins at some profit right now. On the other hand, a value under this threshold implies that loss-selling is dominant among the participants.
Naturally, when the SOPR has a value exactly equal to 1, the overall market can be assumed to be just breaking even on their selling, as the number of profits being realized is exactly canceling out the losses.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin SOPR over the past few years:
Looks like the value of the metric has been slightly positive in recent weeks | Source: CryptoQuant
In the above graph, the analyst has marked the pattern that the Bitcoin SOPR has followed in recent years. During the 2018 bear market, the BTC SOPR dropped to pretty low values below 1 following the November 2018 crash. Coinciding with these lows in the metric, the price also found its bottom.
In the 2022 bear market, the BTC investors were keeping still in the red as they participated in only a relatively low amount of loss selling until the FTX crash occurred and the holders finally capitulated to a significant degree.
So far, it would appear that the low after the FTX collapse was indeed the bottom for the current cycle, as BTC has only gone and doubled in value since then. The pattern of this bottom has also been consistent with the one of the 2018 bear market.
In between these two major bottoms, there was also a large-scale capitulation event back in 2020, but this crash was mostly an anomaly caused by the unexpected emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic.
From the chart, it’s visible that the trend during rallies has generally been just the opposite: investors start selling at large profits and once the profit-taking attains extreme levels, the top is hit.
Earlier this year, the BTC SOPR spiked to high levels around when BTC hit its local top in April. Since then, though, the indicator has remained relatively calm, with some mild profit-taking coming after the latest leg in the rally.
“There will be many corrections and declines in the current market until it reaches the peak of the bull market, but from a psychological perspective, there still seems to be enough time left until the latter half of the bull market,” thinks the quant.
BTC Price
Bitcoin had registered a decline below the $37,000 level during the past day, but the asset has pulled itself back up since then as it’s just floating above the mark now.
The price of the asset appears to have seen some drawdown recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
Bitcoin price is moving lower below the $37,000 level. BTC could continue to move down toward the $36,000 level or even $35,000 zone in the coming sessions.
Bitcoin is showing bearish signs and moving lower from the $37,750 resistance.
The price is trading below $37,400 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $37,380 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair could continue to move down if it breaks the $36,750 support.
Bitcoin Price Extends Decline
Bitcoin price started a downside correction after it spiked toward the $38,500 zone. BTC followed a bearish path and settled below the $37,200 level (as discussed in yesterday’s post).
There was a drop below the $37,000 level. A low was formed near $36,720 and the price is now consolidating losses. It climbed a bit above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the $38,432 swing high to the $36,720 low.
Bitcoin is now trading below $37,400 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $37,400 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $37,380 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
The first major resistance is forming near $37,570 or the 100 hourly Simple moving average. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the $38,432 swing high to the $36,720 low. The main resistance is now near the $38,000 level. A close above the $38,000 resistance might start a strong increase.
The next key resistance could be near $38,500, above which BTC could rise toward the $39,200 level. In the stated case, it could even move toward the $40,000 resistance.
More Losses In BTC?
If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $37,570 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support on the downside is near the $36,720 level.
The next major support is $36,500. If there is a move below $36,500, there is a risk of more downsides. In the stated case, the price could drop toward the $35,650 support in the near term. The next key support or target could be $35,000.
Technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $36,720, followed by $36,000.
Major Resistance Levels – $37,400, $37,570, and $38,000.
In a recent YouTube video, George, the crypto analyst behind the CryptosRUs channel shared his bullish Bitcoin price predictions. He believes Bitcoin is poised to continue trending upwards based on improving fundamentals and favorable market conditions.
Specifically, George cited an analysis from Standard Chartered Bank, which has over $500 billion in annual revenue. Their analysts predicted Bitcoin reaching $120,000 by 2024 for two key reasons — supply shocks from Bitcoin (BTC) miners holding more coins post-halving and increased demand from spot Bitcoin ETF approvals.
It always comes down to supply and demand, supply and demand, right? And demand keeps on going up, spot Bitcoin ETFs will bring more demand, and then supply for Bitcoin keeps going down.
The crypto analyst points to charts showing Bitcoin’s recent 33-day uptrend and forming higher highs and higher lows. He gives a “75% probability” that Bitcoin ends 2023 between $40,000 and $45,000, calling the current minor pullback just “moving according to plan.”
Other positive metrics George highlighted include a parabolic indicator flipping green right before previous Bitcoin rallies, all-time highs in addresses holding the minimum threshold of Bitcoin, and surging open interest in Bitcoin futures and options.
An analyst has explained how $47,360 could be the next target for Bitcoin if the cryptocurrency can clear the $38,500 resistance wall.
Bitcoin URPD Suggests $47,360 Holds Next Major Resistance After $38,500
In a new post on X, analyst Ali talked about what the levels ahead of BTC are looking like right now in terms of the on-chain resistance. The indicator of interest here is the “UTXO Realized Price Distribution” (URPD), which tells us about the amount of coins (or more precisely, the UTXOs) that were last acquired at the various levels that the cryptocurrency has visited in its history.
Generally, the levels that host the cost basis of a significant number of investors can be important levels for Bitcoin, due to how investor psychology tends to work.
To any holder, their acquisition price is naturally a level that’s important, so whenever the price retests that point, they may become more prone to make some sort of move. How they may react to the retest may depend on what their profitability status was prior to the retest.
An investor who was in profits before might want to take a further gamble and buy more, as they may think that the price would go up again in the near term. On the other hand, a holder who was in losses might just want to exit at their acquisition price, just so they can at least avoid going into losses again in the future.
Such buying or selling that arises out of these retests can provide support or resistance to the asset’s price. As mentioned before, though, only levels with a large number of investors are really of any relevance to BTC, as just a few users making these buy or sell moves won’t tick the price meaningfully.
The below chart shows the data for the Bitcoin URPD, to see where the major centers of holder cost basis lie.
Looks like the the level just ahead hosts the cost basis of a significant amount of UTXOs | Source: @ali_charts on X
As displayed in the above graph, the $37,000 level holds the cost basis of a large number of UTXOs, suggesting that the mark should prove to be a strong support wall for the cryptocurrency.
This is certainly an optimistic sign for the rally, as it means that BTC might be able to hold itself above this level without too much effort and work at building an upward move.
The next level that might pose any major resistance could be $38,500, but if Bitcoin can successfully clear this wall, the levels ahead are relatively thin with investors.
From the chart, it’s visible that above $47,000 is where the next resistance boundary lies. So Ali thinks that if a break above $38,500 happens, BTC could advance toward this level.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has slumped back toward the $37,000 level, but if the on-chain data explained earlier is anything to refer to, the asset should find support here.
Bitcoin mining has hit a historic high, with a 5.07% surge in mining difficulty — a record 67.96 T.
Data from blockchain explorer BTC.com indicates the leap in Bitcoin (BTC) mining difficulty has reached an unprecedented 67.96 T (terahashes), with the average hashrate — the Bitcoin network’s computational power gauge — standing at a robust 504.80 EH/s (exahashes per second).
Bitcoin mining difficulty ushered in a mining difficulty adjustment at block height 818496. The mining difficulty was raised by 5.07% to 67.96 T, continuing to hit a record high. The current average hashrate of the entire network is 504.80 EH/s. https://t.co/vgAkEgyDOf
Bitcoin mining difficulty has been on a steady upward trend throughout 2023, and the latest adjustment at block height 818496 is another meaningful landmark for the digital currency.
Bitcoin mining difficulty trend. Soure: BTC.com
Mining difficulty is a dynamic metric that adjusts roughly every fortnight in order to uphold consistent block time, which is the duration it takes to locate and append a new block to the blockchain.
These tweaks are vital to offset changes in the Bitcoin network’s hashrate and preserve a 10-minute average block time.
Alongside the climb in mining difficulty, Bitcoin’s hashrate has rocketed to a new peak of 491 EH/s. This figure represents a rise in the combined computational power miners are dedicating to the Bitcoin network’s security.
The latest difficulty increase is particularly significant as crypto market watchers look forward to the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, slated to happen in approximately five months.
Historically, Bitcoin halving events, which curtail the rate of new coin production, have coincided with BTC price hikes due to the combined influence of diminishing supply and speculative anticipation.
The coin is currently trading at $37,283 per data from CoinGecko, a 1.3% dip from the previous day. However, it is a 2% improvement over the last seven days and 10% over the month. Significantly, BTC is also up 125% on its previous level from a year ago.
Apart from the halving event, analysts also anticipate a significant price surge for BTC in the next year, propelled by the expected approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The Bitcoin mining difficulty has witnessed another increase in 2023, bringing the metric to a new all-time high. The Bitcoin “difficulty” is a vital aspect of the network that controls the rate at which new blocks are added to the blockchain at a given time.
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Surges To A New High Of 67.96T
According to data from BTC Blockchain Explorer, the Bitcoin network experienced a significant adjustment at block height 818,496. This caused the blockchain’s difficulty to soar by 5.07%, reaching a new all-time high of 67.96 T.
The mining difficulty is an essential feature that measures how much power is required to verify transaction blocks on the Bitcoin blockchain. An increase in mining difficulty value suggests higher demand for the Bitcoin network, while a lower difficulty value implies that there are fewer miners on the network.
Bitcoin mining difficulty ushered in a mining difficulty adjustment at block height 818496. The mining difficulty was raised by 5.07% to 67.96 T, continuing to hit a record high. The current average hashrate of the entire network is 504.80 EH/s. https://t.co/vgAkEgyDOf
It is worth noting that the metric has been on an upward trend in the past few weeks. In fact, the recent mining difficulty value represents the sixth consecutive increase in the last six adjustments.
Interestingly, the new mining difficulty value surpassed the early projections for the blockchain. Initially, the Bitcoin mining difficulty was only expected to increase by about 3.8% to 67.14 T in the latest adjustment.
The network hash rate, which measures the total computing power for mining BTC, has also increased. According to BTC Blockchain Explorer, the current average hash rate for the Bitcoin network is 504.8 EH/s, a 3.76% increase from a previous hash rate of 486.5 EH/s.
Some of the factors contributing to the increasing Bitcoin mining difficulty are BTC’s recent price performance, the recent surge in network activity, and the spike in transaction fees. And as the metric continues to rise, it appears that miners will continue to face the challenge of maintaining profitability.
BTC Price Overview
As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at $37,510, reflecting a 0.6% price increase in the past day. While the premier cryptocurrency seems to be drifting away from the $38,000 price mark, it has managed to maintain most of its profit on the weekly timeframe.
According to data from CoinGecko, the Bitcoin price has swelled by more than 2.7% in the past seven days. Meanwhile, the market leader has registered a 10% increase in the past month, emphasizing its strong performance in November.
Bitcoin remains the largest cryptocurrency in the sector, with a market capitalization of over $733 billion.
Bitcoin price drifts away from $38,000 on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Dan Tapiero, CEO of growth equity fund 1RoundTable Partners, expects Bitcoin (BTC) to surpass $100,000.
That’s a conservative estimate, the analyst adds, suggesting the flagship cryptocurrency has the potential for even greater gains within the next five years.
Tapiero, known for his macro insights and fund management prowess, recently shared a cautiously optimistic outlook on Bitcoin’s future value. A surge to $100,000 would signify a remarkable 160% gain from the current levels.
“My target for when I first started looking at this deeply in 2019 was always around $250,000 to $350,000 on Bitcoin,” Tapiero says.
This, according to him, was a considered projection for the end of the decade, suggesting a reasonable trajectory for Bitcoin’s growth.
In discussions with former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal, Tapiero emphasized a noteworthy shift in the cryptocurrency landscape. Traditional retail and financial giants are increasingly embracing digital assets and blockchain technology, signaling a departure from the cautious approach seen in previous market cycles.
Notable companies like Adidas, LVMH, and Nike are exploring the integration of non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and major financial institutions like Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, and BlackRock are displaying a keen interest in the sector.
Tapiero identifies the current phase as an “adoption cycle,” pointing to the growing interest and investments in protocols like Ethereum. However, he distinguishes this revenue from traditional streams, hinting at a transformation in how value is perceived and exchanged.
Market trends
In tandem with Tapiero’s insights, recent market trends reinforce Bitcoin’s resilience and growth. Galaxy Digital predicts a 74% price increase in the first year post a Bitcoin ETF launch, with a base price of $26,920. This projection is underpinned by the belief that an ETF would broaden Bitcoin accessibility, particularly for traditional investors comfortable with regulated investment vehicles.
Simultaneously, algorithmic models and Bitcoin forecast websites echo optimistic sentiments. Predictions peg Bitcoin at $137,400 by the close of 2025.
However, it’s essential to note the caution expressed by traders like Dr Proft, emphasizing the importance of Bitcoin holding above the 20-day Simple Moving Average at $36,287. Failure to do so could trigger a retracement to $33,000.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) current position
Bitcoin (BTC) is exchanging hands for $37,801.67, at press time, representing a marginal 24-hour decline of -0.07% and a 2.90% increase over the past week.
With a circulating supply of 20 million BTC, Bitcoin’s market cap stands at $739,126,338,481, per data from CoinGecko.
Tapiero isn’t the only crypto pro sharing bullish insights on Bitcoin as of late. On X, formerly Twitter, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted that Bitcoin, like dollar liquidity, will enjoy an uptick. See below:
Getting my feet did and observing how Bad Gurl Yellen is busy pumping financial assets. Don’t get distracted, $ liquidity is increasing and $BTC will go up as well. This is the chart of net RRP and TGA balance changes. pic.twitter.com/l2US0FzlAX
US officials announce $4.3B settlement with Binance, plea deal with CZ
Binance and its co-founder, Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, have reached a settlement over criminal and civil cases with the United States Department of Justice. CZ will plead guilty to one felony charge as part of the negotiated agreement. Attorney General Merrick Garland announced the settlement, claiming Binance’s policies allowed criminals involved in illicit activities to move “stolen funds” through the exchange. As part of the settlement, CZ announced on X (formerly Twitter) that he had stepped down as CEO and that Binance’s global head of regional markets, Richard Teng, will assume the position. He added he was “proud to point out” that U.S. officials didn’t allege that Binance misappropriated funds or manipulated markets. CZ was released on bail and is battling government efforts to bar his return to the United Arab Emirates to be with his family. His sentencing is scheduled for February.
BlackRock met with SEC officials to discuss spot Bitcoin ETF
Representatives from BlackRock and Nasdaq met with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to discuss the proposed rule allowing the listing of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). BlackRock provided a presentation detailing how the firm could use an in-kind or in-cash redemption model for its iShares Bitcoin Trust. Many reports have suggested the SEC could be nearing a decision on a spot BTC ETF for listing on U.S. markets. SEC officials also met with Grayscale representatives this week to discuss the listing of a Bitcoin ETF. BlackRock is one of many firms with spot crypto ETF applications in the SEC pipeline awaiting a response, including Fidelity, WisdomTree, Invesco Galaxy, Valkyrie, VanEck and Bitwise.
Bitcoin user pays $3.1M transaction fee for 139 BTC transfer
A Bitcoin user paid $3.1 million in fees for transferring 139.42 BTC. The transaction fee is the eighth-highest in Bitcoin’s 14-year history. A wallet address tried transferring 139.42 BTC only to pay more than half the actual value of the transaction fee. The destination address received only 55.77 BTC. The mining pool Antpool captured the absurdly high mining fee on block 818087. This is the largest Bitcoin transaction fee ever paid in dollar terms, knocking off Paxos’s September transfer of $500,000.
SEC sues Kraken alleging it’s an unregistered exchange, mixes user funds
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has sued Kraken, alleging it commingled customer funds and failed to register with the regulator as a securities exchange, broker, dealer and clearing agency. Additionally, the SEC alleged Kraken’s business practices and “deficient” internal controls saw the exchange commingle up to $33 billion worth of customer assets with its own. The SEC said this resulted in a “significant risk of loss” for its clients. In a follow-up blog post, Kraken said the SEC’s commingling accusations were “no more than Kraken spending fees it has already earned,” and the regulator doesn’t allege any user funds are missing.
Appeals court rejects Sam Bankman-Fried’s bid for release
Sam Bankman-Fried will stay jailed after failing to convince a United States appellate court that he should be freed while his legal team appeals his conviction. Government prosecutors accused Bankman-Fried of leaking Caroline Ellison’s journals to The New York Times in July, which caused his bail to be revoked by a New York District Court. Bankman-Fried was found guilty of seven fraud and money laundering-related charges on Nov. 2. The former FTX CEO will remain behind bars while he awaits his sentencing on March 28 next year.
Winners and Losers
At the end of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is at $37,710, Ether (ETH) is at $2,079, and XRP is at $0.62. The total market cap is at $1.43 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.
Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers of the week are Blur (BLUR) at 99.25%, FTX Token (FTT) at 39.05% and KuCoin Token (KCS) at 24.82%.
The top three altcoin losers of the week are Celestia (TIA) at -19.89%, ORDI (ORDI) at -17.63% and THORChain (RUNE) at -15.53%.
“We, the employees of OpenAI, have developed the best models and pushed the field to new frontiers, [but] the process through which you terminated Sam Altman […] has jeopardized all of this work and undermined our mission and company.”
‘Enjoy sub-$40K Bitcoin’ — PlanB stresses $100K average BTC price from 2024
Bitcoin buyers should enjoy the chance to add to their stack below $40,000, according to PlanB, pseudonymous creator of the stock-to-flow family of BTC price models. He believes Bitcoin will rise much higher than its recent 18-month highs.
Bitcoin bear market bottoms are characterized by the spot price dipping below the realized price, while bull markets begin once the spot crosses the two-year and five-month realized price levels. BTC/USD is now once again above all three realized price iterations.
“Enjoy sub-$40k bitcoin … while it lasts,” PlanB commented on an accompanying chart.
Asked whether the market should expect lower levels from here, PlanB would not be drawn, saying that he simply expected an average BTC price of at least $100,000 between 2024 and 2028 — Bitcoin’s next halving cycle.
FUD of the Week
HTX to restore services ‘within 24 hours’ after $30M hack
Crypto exchange HTX, formerly known as Huobi Global, resumed deposits and withdrawals within 24 hours after suffering a $30 million exploit on Nov. 22. The exploit was reported to be $13.6 million around the time of the incident, but has since increased in value. HTX’s hot wallets were compromised alongside a coordinated $86.6 million attack against the HTX Eco (HECO) Chain bridge, consisting of HTX, Tron and BitTorrent. The company has promised to fully compensate users for any losses incurred as a consequence of the hack.
CZ an ‘unacceptable risk of flight,’ should stay in US: DOJ
United States prosecutors are trying to stop former Binance boss Changpeng “CZ” Zhao from leaving the country, expressing concern about his potential flight risk. The government requested a review and overturn of a judge’s decision that would allow Zhao to return to his home in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on a $175 million bond under the condition that he returns to the U.S. two weeks before his February 2024 sentencing. In a proposed order, prosecutors wrote that Zhao “presents an unacceptable risk of flight,” arguing that his ties and favored status in the UAE, along with the country’s lack of an extradition treaty with the U.S., are reasons to block him from leaving the country.
KyberSwap hacker offers $4.6M bounty for return of $46M loot
The decentralized exchange KyberSwap has offered a 10% bounty reward to the hacker who stole $46 million on Nov. 22 and left a note of negotiation. The exchange wants 90% of the loot returned. The hacker made away with roughly $20 million in Wrapped Ether, $7 million in wrapped Lido-staked Ether and $4 million in Arbitrum tokens. The hacker then siphoned the loot across multiple chains, including Arbitrum, Optimism, Ethereum, Polygon and Base.
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Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode has estimated a substantial influx of investor demand following the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETF. The analysis indicates around $70 billion in new money flowing into Bitcoin, potentially setting the stage for a BTC price rally.
Bitcoin Spot ETF Set To Ignite New Inflows
Blockchain data and intelligence provider, Glassnode has recently published research insights on the potential impacts of Bitcoin Spot ETF approvals on the price of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The on-chain analytics company has predicted about $70.5 billion flowing into Bitcoin from increased demand from institutional investors.
Glassnode bases its analysis on the assumption that substantial portions of capital invested in the stocks, bonds, and gold market might shift toward Bitcoin investments. The blockchain analytics firm has stated that this influx of new capital could have a huge effect on the Bitcoin market, potentially driving its price to greater levels.
“Based on these assumptions, we estimate approximately $60.6 billion could flow into Bitcoin from the combined stock and bond ETFs, and about $9.9 billion from the gold market, totaling around $70.5 billion in potential new capital influx,” Glassnode stated.
It added:
“This significant infusion of new capital could have a considerable impact on Bitcoin’s market, potentially driving up its price as it gains broader acceptance and becomes integrated into more traditional investment portfolios.”
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $37.696. Chart: TradingView.com
“The market’s upward trajectory was largely driven by the anticipation of Spot BTC ETF approvals, with market movements significantly influenced by updates on filings from major financial entities like Invesco and BlackRock,” Glassnode stated.
The on-chain analysis firm revealed that the growing optimism in Spot Bitcoin ETFs has caused a notable increase in Bitcoin futures on CME. According to the blockchain intelligence provider, CME Bitcoin futures rose to an all-time high of 27.8%, exceeding Binance for the first time since the start of the crypto bear market.
Various other altcoins like Ethereum and Solana also experienced staggering price increases. Solana surged by 79.05%, and Ethereum’s price is presently above the $2000 mark.
The most notable increase caused by the ongoing hype on Spot Bitcoin ETFs was seen in Bitcoin. BTC surged above $37,000 as the optimism of regulator approvals for the first Spot Bitcoin ETF spread.
Additionally, institutional engagement in open interest in Bitcoin call options also rose by $4.3 billion, marking an 80% increase to surpass $9.7 billion. These recent spikes in investor demand and crypto prices have signaled a potential bullish trajectory for the maturing crypto market.
On Nov 1, the IRS announced, “The limit on annual contributions to an IRA increased to $7,000, up from $6,500,” for the 2024 tax year. The 401(k) limit also went up by $500 to $23,000.
That means Bitcoin investors who are saving for retirement with a self-directed Bitcoin IRA can now contribute $500 more next year.
Bitcoin IRA Contributions Are Tax Deductible
Saver investors looking to hedge inflation, diversify their portfolio, or add a risk-reward, high-growth tech play to their strategy also get a tax benefit with a Bitcoin IRA or 401(k) account.
“A Bitcoin IRA can provide you with the tax advantages of traditional and Roth IRAs.”
The main advantage of an IRA is taxpayers can deduct their contribution from the amount of their taxable income.
Jay Blaskey, head of sales at BitIRA, says:
“Under the umbrella of self-directed IRAs, Americans have the option to purchase a wide variety of alternative assets.”
That includes gold, real estate, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
Some Employers Offer Bitcoin 401(k) Accounts
Some 401(k) savers may also have the option to contribute Bitcoin to their 401(k) and get a tax benefit. That is if their employer allows it and works with a pension fund that provides digital asset services. Otherwise, they have to use a self-directed Bitcoin IRA to get a tax deduction.
Fidelity Investments, for example, works with 23,000 employers to maintain Bitcoin 401(k) retirement accounts. Its Digital Assets arm provides digital custody services, allowing 401(k) contributors to save for retirement using Bitcoin.
Investors do have an obligation to report capital gains from any cryptocurrency holdings to the IRS. The Internal Revenue Service is ramping up enforcement this year on unreported income from digital assets.
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Bitcoin rallied to start the week, touched a new 2023 high to end it and suffered a brief drop in between, weighed down by the trouble at Binance. Bitcoin ended the week higher by about 4% after touching a new 2023 high on Friday above $38,000. Meanwhile, ether advanced 8%. Coin Metrics measures a week in crypto, which trades 24 hours a day, from 4:00 p.m. ET on a given Friday to the same time the following Friday. There was an array of events driving the price this week – from the election in Argentina , the minutes of the latest Fed meeting and updates to bitcoin ETF applications, to the Binance settlement and the leadership coup at OpenAI . These things not only highlighted the nuance in bitcoin’s purpose and identity, it also put the crypto industry’s long-standing regulatory woes back in focus for investors. “The thing I’d be focused on over the short term is what kind of news we have on the regulatory front versus what is already discounted by traders,” Zach Pandl, managing director of research at Grayscale Investments, told CNBC. “Are we going to see news that’s positive enough that gives us new price highs given the way people are already positioned?” BTC.CM= 1Y mountain Bitcoin, 1 year For the year, bitcoin is up about 130% even after remaining stuck in a tight range for most of it. Optimism about the likely approval of a spot bitcoin ETF has been building for the past couple months, serving as the biggest catalyst for the cryptocurrency. Pandl (whose company is a key player in the push to get an ETF off the ground with its popular GBTC product) said he thinks the market will continue to get good news on the ETF front. Moreover, as the industry recovers from the black eye FTX dealt it this time last year, regulators are learning how to separate different market participants. “Regulators are very clearly segregating a variety of issues – on one hand, bad actors and parts of the business [of crypto] that we don’t want to see continue, versus the asset management community [and] ETF community, which is just providing a product to the public,” he said. The challenge is that active crypto trader positioning appears long, he added, based on activity in crypto futures, options, open interest and funding rates. “While we may hear more positive news about the prospect of an ETF approval, some of that is priced in so things need to happen sooner or more smoothly for them to incrementally move a price,” he said. Meanwhile, Michael Rinko, a research analyst at Delphi Digital, said this week’s Binance settlement is one piece of evidence of a new narrative forming in crypto regulation, one in which the Biden administration could be starting to view crypto through a similar lens to which they see technology fields like artificial intelligence and semiconductors. It may be a long while before crypto reaches the level of priority as AI, he added, but the latest Binance development is part of an emerging narrative. “Increasingly, the view in from the U.S. government’s perspective is that they’re viewing more and more technology through the lens of national security,” he said. Rinko highlighted examples such as semiconductors and the CHIPS act and increasing engagement with AI leading to restrictions on some of Nvidia’s higher-end chips, and said a similar path could be coming for crypto. Already underway is a sort of regulatory attack on the crypto players the U.S. deems unacceptable, he said, adding it will likely fracture the crypto world into two spheres. “There will be the Western sphere of influence where there’s Coinbase , Kraken and exchanges that have relationships and ties to the so-called West, and then there will be Eastern exchanges that operate outside the influence and control of the U.S. and its allies and are persona non grata from a U.S. perspective,” he said.
Bitcoin (BTC) and the cryptocurrency market have seen a significant uptrend, hitting a new annual high and surpassing $1.45 trillion, paving the way for potential gains in the final days of November.
Notably, BTC, the largest cryptocurrency in the market, has achieved a remarkable milestone, approaching the $40,000 level with a price surge to $38,400.
The catalysts behind this recent surge include the anticipated acceptance of the BlackRock Bitcoin Spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) within the next 45 days and speculation that BlackRock itself may influence Bitcoin’s price through significant buying pressure on Coinbase.
BlackRock Driving BTC’s Recent Price Surge?
According to CoinGecko, the global cryptocurrency market cap currently stands at $1.5 trillion, reflecting a 2.05% change in the last 24 hours and an impressive 72.26% change compared to the same period last year.
This surge in market capitalization has not only boosted Bitcoin but has also contributed to gains in other major cryptocurrencies within the Top 100, such as Blur (BLUR), which soared a staggering 27%, Mina Protocol (MINA), which gained 9%, and Bittensor (TAO), which has seen a 14% surge in the last 24 hours, to name a few.
Regarding the recent surge of BTC to a new yearly high, crypto expert known by the pseudonym “Crypto Rover” has shed light on potential catalysts driving the recent surge. According to Rover, the BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF launch is expected to occur within the next 45 days.
In this regard, Rover’s analysis suggests that BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, may play a role in Bitcoin’s recent surge. The speculation is based on the observation that a significant amount of Bitcoin buying pressure appears to be coming from Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, with the platform serving as BlackRock’s custodial partner.
Promising Bitcoin Price Targets For Late 2025
Renowned crypto analyst Crypto Con has unveiled what he claims to be the most accurate Log Regression Curves for Bitcoin to date. These curves have provided insights into the future cycle top, an elusive aspect of Bitcoin analysis.
According to projections derived from the curve matching technique, late 2025 could witness two potential price targets for Bitcoin: $130,000, referred to as Layer 6, and Layer 7, with a target price of $180,000.
BTC’s price targets for late 2025. Source: CryptoCon on X.
The analyst says several models and projections support the $130,000 target, adding to its credibility. According to Crypto Con, even the most conservative estimate, known as Layer 5 at $94,000, seems less likely.
Based on historical trends, it is improbable that the entire red band, representing potential price ranges, would fail during this cycle. Therefore, one of the projected targets is expected to be accurate.
Based on the available information, Crypto Con favors layer 6 at $130,000 as the more likely target for Bitcoin’s late 2025 price surge. This projection aligns with the Halving Cycles Theory, suggesting a timeframe of approximately 21 days from November 28th, 2025.
Bitfarms announces a $44 million private placement with U.S. investors to expand its Bitcoin mining infrastructure and strengthen its working capital.
Bitfarms Ltd., a Canadian Bitcoin mining company, has initiated a private placement deal with U.S. institutional investors to raise approximately $44 million ($60 million CAD). This strategic deal, set to close around Nov. 28, entails the issuance of over 44 million common shares at 99 cents each, coupled with warrants for purchasing additional shares.
As Bitfarms mentions, the proceeds from this private placement will fund key growth initiatives, including acquiring new mining equipment, expanding infrastructure, and bolstering the company’s working capital.
#Bitfarms Announces C$60 Million Private Placement with U.S. Institutional Investors
The net proceeds of the private placement will be used by the Company mainly to acquire additional miners, expand infrastructure, and improve its working capital position.
Founded in 2017, Bitfarms contributes its computing power to various mining pools. The company operates 11 mining farms across Canada, the U.S., Paraguay and Argentina, emphasizing sustainable and environmentally friendly practices. Their operations are powered mainly by hydro-electric energy and long-term power contracts. The firm emphasizes that it’s committed to leveraging sustainable, locally sourced, and often underutilized energy resources.
Bitcoin mining activities have intensified in the past few months, specifically due to the upcoming halving event in 2024. Several miners have recently secured important funding and partnership deals. BTC mining difficulty also hit new highs earlier this week, with the hash price falling below $80.7 per day.
The recent events at cryptocurrency exchange Binance could trigger the next Bitcoin bull run if this pattern continues to form.
Will Bitcoin Exchange Reserve Ratio Turn Around After Binance News?
As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the BTC exchange reserve ratio for US versus off-shore platforms has followed a specific pattern during past bull markets of the asset.
The “exchange reserve ratio” here refers to an indicator that compares the exchange reserves of any two platforms or group of platforms. The exchange reserve is the total amount of Bitcoin sitting in the wallets of the exchange/group in question.
In the context of the current discussion, the exchange reserve ratio between the US-based exchanges and foreign platforms is of interest. The trend in this metric can tell us about which type of exchanges users prefer to use.
When the ratio’s value declines, the off-shore exchanges gain steam as investors deposit their coins to them faster than to the US platforms (alternatively, they are withdrawing at a slower pace).
On the other hand, an increase implies the dominance of the American exchanges is going up as their exchange reserve is growing relative to that of the global platforms.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin exchange reserve ratio for these two sets of exchanges over the last few years:
Looks like the value of the metric has been going up in recent weeks | Source: CryptoQuant
In the graph, the quant has highlighted the two phases that the Bitcoin exchange reserve ratio for these platforms appeared to have followed during the last two bull runs.
In the first phase (marked in green), the indicator rises while the cryptocurrency goes through a buildup period for the bull rally. This suggests that large entities start participating in the American exchanges ahead of the bull run.
Once the bull run starts properly, the indicator’s value starts sliding down as investors withdraw their coins from these platforms again (the red box in the graph).
From the chart, it’s visible that the Bitcoin exchange reserve ratio for US vs. foreign exchanges was in a continued decline since the start of the bear market but has recently shown signs of turning around.
The indicator has only registered a small increase so far, so it’s hard to say if it’s a sign of a trend taking shape or just a temporary deviation. Whatever the case, though, a development has happened in the Bitcoin market that can tip the favor towards the American platforms regardless.
Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange based on trading volume, has seen a leadership change following Changpeng Zhao’s resignation. The instability has kickstarted outflows from the exchange, while US-based Coinbase has enjoyed inflows.
Thus, this may be the event that leads to a proper reversal in the BTC exchange reserve ratio. “If the recent regulations on CZ and Binance lead to an increase in the percentage of Bitcoin held on US exchanges, we will be ready for the next bull market,” notes the analyst.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has once again been trying to breach the $38,000 level today, as the chart below shows.
BTC has registered some increase during the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
Crypto prices have recovered from a big dip earlier in the week, with bitcoin hitting a new high for 2023 on Friday.
Bitcoin touched a high of $38,015.16 on Friday morning, according to CoinMetrics, its highest level in more than a year. It was last up by about 1% at $37,709.50, and it’s on pace to end the week higher by 3.5%.
Meanwhile, ether has moved back above the key psychological level of $2,000, last trading nearly 2% higher at $2,101.78. The second largest token by market cap is outperforming the crypto market this week, on pace to end up more than 8%.
Solana, the big outperformer on the year – up more than 470% compared to bitcoin’s 130% – trailed the major tokens this week. It’s roughly flat on the week.
Bitcoin topped $38,000 to hit a fresh high for 2023.
While Binance serves as the most significant liquidity pool for crypto trading, many see the exchange’s settlement as a necessary development to allow the crypto industry – still recovering from FTX’s 2022 collapse – to move forward. With the Binance investigation resolved, some say it may even clear the path for a bitcoin ETF approval, which many investors expect to be the major catalyst that sends bitcoin to major new highs.
Traders are also weighing the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting, which were also released the day of the Binance settlement and showed officials expressed little appetite for cutting interest rates anytime soon.
