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Tag: Bitcoin

  • Bitcoin Equilibrium: Active Market Participants Just Breaking Even

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    On-chain data shows the Bitcoin price is currently floating around the cost basis of the Active Investors, suggesting this cohort is at break-even.

    Bitcoin Is Trading At The Active Investors Mean

    In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has shared an update on where the major Bitcoin on-chain levels currently stand. There are four pricing models of interest here, the most basic of which is the Realized Price.

    The Realized Price basically keeps track of the cost basis or acquisition level of the average investor on the BTC network. The spot price trading above this line means that the holders as a whole are in a state of net unrealized profit, while the reverse situation suggests the dominance of loss in the market.

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    Below is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in this metric over the last few years.

    The price of the coin seems to have been trading around the Active Realized Price in recent weeks | Source: Glassnode on X

    As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin spot price crossed above the Realized Price back at the start of 2023, and since then, its value has remained above the indicator.

    At present, the Realized Price is sitting at $56,200, which means that the network as a whole is in a significant amount of profit at the current spot price.

    While the Realized Price does provide an overall view of the blockchain, it doesn’t tend to be too useful outside of bear markets as the asset rarely interacts with it. This is a consequence of the fact that it accounts for all tokens in circulation, even the ones that have become inaccessible due to lost wallet keys.

    Two other models in the chart, the True Market Mean and Active Realized Price, exist to solve this issue. These indicators only provide the cost basis of the active market participants. That is, the Bitcoin investors who have recently been involved in transaction activity.

    The first model, the True Market Mean, is situated at $81,100 right now. This is around where the cryptocurrency found its bottom when it crashed in November. Meanwhile, the Active Realized Price corresponds to $87,700, which is the level about which BTC has recently been consolidating.

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    As Bitcoin is currently trading right at the Active Realize Price, the investors holding the economically active supply can be assumed to be just breaking even on their investment.

    While the active traders as a whole have a neutral profitability, the same isn’t true for a segment of them known as the short-term holders (STHs). Formally, the STHs are defined as the addresses who acquired their coins within the past 155 days.

    With the Bitcoin STH Realized Price equal to $99,900 at the moment, this cohort is in a state of net loss.

    BTC Price

    At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $87,700, down 2.6% in the last seven days.

    Bitcoin Price Chart
    Looks like the price of the coin has overall been moving sideways in recent days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

    Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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    Keshav Verma

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  • Bitcoin Hovering In A Descending Range, But Alts Are Quietly Gaining Momentum

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    Bitcoin is holding steady within a descending range, showing little directional conviction, while several altcoins are quietly building strength. As the market consolidates, these smaller assets could hint at early upside moves before BTC breaks out.

    Key Resistance In Focus: $90,588 And The Descending Trendline

    According to a recent update by Kamile Uray, there are no changes in the key levels being tracked on the daily chart, as the focus remains on the $90,588 level and the descending blue trendline. Unless BTC can close above these levels, the current decline may continue. Any upward moves below the blue descending trend are considered corrective rather than a trend reversal.

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    The first support zone to monitor during the decline is between $83,822 and $82,477. A daily close below $82,477 would signal a continuation of the downtrend and could open the door toward the $74,496–$71,237 zone, marked by the blue box. This lower zone is viewed as a strong support area where buyers may step in.

    BTC still below a descending trendline | Source: Chart from Kamile Uray on X

    Thus, a clear reversal confirmation is key before considering any significant upward move. Once confirmed, a rally toward the blue descending trendline could follow, testing resistance levels along the way.

    For the uptrend to resume decisively, BTC would need to close above $90,588 and break the descending resistance. Meanwhile, a daily close above $94,130 would confirm that the blue descending trend has been broken, potentially signaling a shift to sustained bullish momentum.

    LTF Moves Show Less Impulse, But Structure Holds

    Crypto analyst The Penguin noted that the lower time frame (LTF) is showing slightly less impulsive action, though the overall count remains unchanged. The recent moves on the LTF appear more like noise and do not affect the broader wave count, and confidence in a leading diagonal for wave 1 remains intact.

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    Putting Elliott Wave analysis aside for a moment and leaning on standard technical analysis, BTC is clearly respecting a defined range. As a result, a minor deviation toward the 0.886 level marked on the chart is being closely watched as a potential entry point.

    Bullish confirmation will come if BTC manages to close and hold above $90,500, which would invalidate the current bearish scenario and signal the potential for a more sustained upward trend. Until then, the short-term fluctuations are considered normal noise, especially with the yearly open approaching.

    On the altcoin side, momentum appears to be holding, suggesting potential upside. Outperformance is already visible in altcoins like XPL, indicating that while BTC consolidates, some alts are starting to push higher.

    Bitcoin
    BTC trading at $87,481 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

    Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

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    Godspower Owie

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  • Why $100,000 Is Bitcoin’s Most Important Resistance Level

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    Bitcoin is struggling to regain momentum below the $90,000 level, yet it continues to hold above $86,000, reflecting a market gripped by indecision. Price action has narrowed into a tight range, with neither buyers nor sellers able to assert clear control.

    As volatility compresses, apathy has become a defining feature of the current environment, and an increasing number of analysts are openly discussing the possibility that the market is transitioning toward a broader bear phase.

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    While price levels dominate headlines, on-chain data suggests the more important battle is unfolding beneath the surface. According to CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci, Bitcoin’s current positioning cannot be understood by price alone.

    Instead, attention is shifting toward the cost bases of key market participants, particularly whales and Binance spot users. Even with Bitcoin trading around $87,000, the most consequential level sits significantly higher.

    Data shows that the average cost basis of new whales, defined as holders with coins younger than 155 days, is clustered around $100,500. This zone represents a critical break-even threshold for large players who entered the market recently.

    As a result, every approach toward $100,000 carries heightened significance. That level may either trigger distribution, as whales seek to protect capital, or mark the start of renewed accumulation if confidence returns.

    Cost Basis Data Maps Bitcoin Real Support and Resistance

    The report highlights that beneath Bitcoin’s current price action, cost basis data offers a clearer framework for understanding market risk. For Binance spot users, the average cost basis sits near $56,000. This level represents the largest concentration of spot volume in the market and effectively defines the “deep water” zone if conditions deteriorate.

    In a prolonged bearish phase, $56K is where the bulk of spot holders would be tested, making it a critical long-term support area rather than a short-term trading level.

    Bitcoin new whales cost basis, Binance user deposit addresses | Source: CryptoQuant

    Long-term whale positioning adds another important layer. The cost basis for whales holding Bitcoin longer than 155 days is clustered around $40,000. This means these participants are still sitting on profits of more than 2x, even after the recent correction.

    That profit cushion helps explain the rise in realized gains seen over recent weeks. For many long-term holders, current prices already represent a satisfactory exit, increasing the incentive to distribute into strength rather than aggressively accumulate.

    Taken together, the data reframes Bitcoin’s market structure. The key short-term ceiling remains near $100,000, where newer whales approach breakeven and supply tends to emerge. On the downside, $56,000 stands out as the level where spot market conviction would be most severely tested.

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    Bitcoin Consolidates Above Key Weekly Support as Momentum Cools

    Bitcoin is trading near the $88,700 level on the weekly chart, stabilizing after a sharp pullback from the $120,000–$125,000 highs reached earlier this cycle. While the broader uptrend from 2024 remains intact, recent price action signals a clear slowdown in momentum. The market has shifted from an impulsive expansion phase into a corrective and consolidative structure, with volatility compressing around a critical support zone.

    BTC consolidates around critical level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
    BTC consolidates around critical level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

    Technically, Bitcoin is holding just above its rising medium-term moving average, which has acted as dynamic support throughout this bull cycle. The rejection above $110,000 marked a decisive loss of upside control, and the failure to quickly reclaim that zone suggests distribution rather than a brief pause. At the same time, price remains well above the long-term moving average, reinforcing that this move is still corrective within a larger trend, not yet a confirmed trend reversal.

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    Volume dynamics support this interpretation. Selling pressure expanded during the initial breakdown, but recent weeks show declining volume as price stabilizes between roughly $86,000 and $90,000. This points to seller exhaustion, though buyers have yet to step in with conviction.

    Structurally, the $86,000–$88,000 range is pivotal. Holding this zone keeps the higher-timeframe bullish structure alive. A clean breakdown would expose deeper downside. While a recovery above $95,000 would be needed to reassert bullish momentum and reopen the path toward prior highs.

    Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

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    Sebastian Villafuerte

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  • Crypto Fear Hits Extreme on Christmas as Bitcoin, Ethereum ETF Outflows Persist

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    Bitcoin dipped below $87K on Christmas amid thin liquidity and ETF outflows, even as on-chain data hints at easing sell pressure.

    Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $87,000 during thin Christmas Day trading on December 25, as ETF outflows and weak holiday liquidity kept pressure on the market, according to data shared by XWIN Finance.

    The pullback comes even as on-chain metrics point to easing sell pressure and a record build-up of stablecoin capital, leaving traders split between caution and the risk of sudden price swings.

    ETF Outflows and Holiday Liquidity Weigh on Prices

    XWIN Finance’s Trend Index, published on December 25, placed the market firmly in a “mild downtrend” with a score of 34 out of 100, citing persistent ETF withdrawals and U.S.-session selling as the main drags.

    It saw Bitcoin briefly dipping below $87,000 before bouncing, though repeated attempts to reclaim the $88,000 to $89,000 area have stalled, a zone XWIN described as heavy resistance shaped by options positioning.

    Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to see net withdrawals, with roughly 2,900 BTC, worth some $251 million, leaving funds in the latest session. That weakness lines up with figures reported by CryptoPotato on December 24, which showed cumulative BTC ETF inflows shrinking by nearly $6 billion since their October peak. Ethereum funds followed a similar pattern, remaining net negative on a weekly basis despite a small daily bounce.

    By contrast, diversification flows are visible elsewhere. For example, Solana products posted steady inflows, while XRP-related ETFs added about $8 million in the most recent session, extending a streak that has made XRP funds an outlier among crypto ETFs.

    Bitcoin’s price action reflects this uneasy balance, with the asset trading just under $88,000 at the time of writing, up about 1% on the day and week, but still nearly 20% lower over three months.

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    Volatility has stayed compressed, with a 24-hour range between $87,000 and $88,000, while the past week saw swings between $85,000 and just over $90,000. Relative to the broader market, Bitcoin’s moves have been muted, with liquidity-driven wicks outweighing trend-following flows.

    On-Chain Signals Hint at Exhaustion, Not Panic

    Beneath the weak sentiment, on-chain data paints a more nuanced picture. XWIN noted that whale exchange inflows over the past 30 days sit near cycle lows, while Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) is still falling, a sign that long-term holders are slowing their selling.

    At the same time, there appears to be a fair amount of caution, with spending from very old Bitcoin cohorts ticking higher, a pattern sometimes seen near major turning points. Network activity also remains soft, suggesting demand has not yet returned in force.

    According to the XWIN assessment, the current market tension is being reflected in sentiment gauges, particularly the Fear and Greed Index, which is in “Extreme Fear” at 24, while DeFi borrowing has dropped sharply since August, pointing to reduced leverage. Nonetheless, stablecoin supply has climbed to a record near $310 billion, signaling large pools of sidelined capital.

    With equities and gold both at record highs and January rate expectations tilted toward a pause, macro conditions are not overtly hostile. For crypto, however, XWIN suggested that the next move still hinges on ETF flows and post-expiry options dynamics. Until those shifts, the market may stay fragile, even as signs of seller fatigue quietly build beneath the surface.

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    Wayne Jones

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  • Bitcoin Has Entered A Bear Market, And This Data Backs It Up

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    The ongoing Bitcoin price play out leading into a bear market is now one of the most pressing questions in the crypto industry. Right now, Bitcoin is trading between $87,700 and $88,000, which is a 30% drop from the all-time high it reached in October 2025. 

    Price action alone often leaves room for debate, but on-chain data is beginning to offer clearer guidance. Notably, analysis from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin’s internal market structure is shifting in a way that aligns more closely with early-stage bear market conditions.

    BCMI Drops Below Equilibrium

    The important bear market signal is from Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index, or BCMI, which is a composite indicator that blends price behavior with on-chain momentum. According to Woo Minkyu, a verified analyst on the CryptoQuant platform, Bitcoin’s BCMI returned to the 0.5 level in October. This was initially interpreted as a cooling phase rather than a definitive cycle top. At the time, the assumption was that Bitcoin was consolidating after an extended rally.

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    However, that view has weakened with the deterioration of market conditions. Particularly, Bitcoin’s price action has declined materially since late October, and the BCMI has fallen in tandem with the price. This joint decline suggests the market has reset not only through time but also through valuation and participation. 

    Source: Chart from CryptoQuant

    As shown on the chart below, the BCMI has now slipped below its equilibrium zone, and this is a development that is known to coincide with transitions into bearish phases, where rallies tend to be capped, and downside risks increase.

    A closer look at prior Bitcoin cycles adds more context to the current setup. In both 2019 and 2023, meaningful cycle bottoms formed only after BCMI compressed into the 0.25 to 0.35 range. Those levels reflected deep sentiment compression, washed-out positioning, and a structural reset of the market.

    At current readings, Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index is less than 0.4. This reading is below equilibrium but still well above a bottom zone. This opens the possibility that the market is transitioning into a bear phase, not just experiencing a pullback.

    According to the analyst, a more durable bottom may only form if history repeats itself and the BCMI revisits 2019-2023 levels.

    Weak Sentiment Adds To Bear Market Evidence

    Market sentiment is also supporting the idea that Bitcoin is moving deeper into a bearish phase. Optimism has been really scarce in recent weeks, with traders showing little confidence that the price has found a sustainable floor. CoinMarketCap’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index is currently posting a reading of 28, which places sentiment firmly in the Fear zone.

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    This poor sentiment backdrop has been affirmed by industry commentary. For instance, Changpeng Zhao recently noted that many investors only wish they had bought Bitcoin early when prices were already at all-time highs. In practice, those early accumulations happened during periods like the present one, when fear, uncertainty, and doubt dominate market psychology.

    Bitcoin
    BTC trading at $87,510 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

    Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

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    Scott Matherson

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  • Bitcoin Price Trading Near ‘Fair Value,’ Says On-Chain Model

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    Keshav is currently a senior writer at NewsBTC and has been attached to the website since June 14, 2021.

    Keshav has been writing for many years, first as a hobbyist and later as a freelancer. He has experience working in a variety of niches, even fiction at one point, but the cryptocurrency industry has been the longest he has been attached to.

    In terms of official educational qualifications, Keshav holds a bachelor’s degree in Physics from one of the premier institutes of India, the University of Delhi (DU). He started the degree with an aim of eventually making a career in Physics, but the onset of COVID led to a shift in plans. The virus meant that the college classes had to be delivered in the online-mode and with it came free time for him to explore other passions.

    Initially only seeking to make some beer money, Keshav unexpectedly landed clients offering real projects, after which there was no looking back. Writing was something he had always enjoyed and to be able to do it for a living was like a dream come true.

    Keshav completed his Physics degree in 2022 and has been focusing on his writing career since, but that doesn’t mean his passion for Physics has ended. He eventually plans to re-enter university to obtain a masters degree in the same field, but perhaps only to satiate his own interest rather than for using it as a means to find employment..

    Keshav has found blockchain and its concepts fascinating ever since he started going down the rabbit-hole back in 2020. On-chain analysis in particular has been something he likes to research more about, which is why his NewsBTC pieces tend to involve it in some form.

    Being of the science background, Keshav likes if concepts are clear and consistent, so he generally explains the indicators he talks about in a bit of detail so that the readers can perhaps come out having understood and learnt something new.

    As for hobbies, Keshav is super into football, anime, and videogames. He enjoys football not only as a watcher, but also as a player. For games, Keshav generally tends towards enjoying singleplayer adventures, with EA FC (formerly FIFA) being the only online game he is active in. Though, perhaps due to being ultra-focused on the game, he is today a semi-pro on the EA FC scene, regularly participating in tournaments and sometimes even taking back prize money.

    Because of his enthusiasm for anime and games, he also self-learned Japanese along the way to consume some of the untranslated gems out there. The skill didn’t merely remain as just a hobby, either, as he put it to productive use during his exploration for small-time gigs at the start of COVID, fulfilling a couple of Japanese-to-English translation jobs.

    Keshav is also big into fitness, with agility and acceleration-related workouts making a big part of his program due to the relevance they have in football. On top of that, he also has a more traditional strength based program for the gym, which he does to maintain an overall fitness level of his body.

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    Keshav Verma

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  • Market Maker Sounds Alarm: Volatility Persists in Thin Holiday Trading

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    Wintermute reports repeated selloffs as Bitcoin briefly dipped below $85K and Ethereum fell under $3K last week.

    As 2025 draws to a close, cryptocurrency markets are still volatile, with traders facing hundreds of millions in daily liquidations despite typically quiet holiday trading.

    This persistent instability, marked by sharp price swings and failing rallies, reflects a market still struggling to recover from a historic crash and now grappling with structural uncertainty heading into the new year.

    Heavy Liquidations Expose Fragile Year-End Market Structure

    According to a recent report by market maker Wintermute, downside pressure intensified early last week, with Bitcoin (BTC) briefly breaking below $85,000 and Ethereum (ETH) falling under $3,000 before derivatives-driven selloffs took hold.

    Liquidations topped roughly $600 million on Monday, followed by about $400 million each on Wednesday and Thursday, as steep rebounds were quickly sold into.

    “Downside moves remain abrupt, but they are increasingly self-contained as leverage is flushed quickly and capital retrenches into the most liquid assets,” the firm wrote.

    By the end of the week, activity slowed, and Bitcoin edged back toward $90,000, though that level again proved difficult to hold.

    As reported by CryptoPotato on December 23, BTC failed to secure a clean break above $90,000 before retreating toward the high-$80,000 range, with daily liquidations still near $250 million. This struggle has placed Bitcoin on track for a near-24% loss in the fourth quarter, its weakest Q4 since 2018, according to Coinglass data.

    Wintermute’s internal flow data points to a narrowing market. Buying interest is still focused on BTC and ETH, with institutional demand steady since the summer.

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    Meanwhile, retail traders seem to be moving out of smaller tokens and back into the majors.

    “BTC and ETH continue to act as the primary risk absorbers, while the broader market struggles under supply pressure and limited risk appetite,” Wintermute said.

    The firm also noted that token unlocks and excess supply have continued to weigh on altcoins.

    October’s Leverage Flush Still Hangs Over Sentiment

    The choppy conditions are also linked to deeper scars left by a massive sell-off in October. Several analysts have argued that the crash, which wiped out more than $12,000 from Bitcoin’s price in a single day, damaged confidence in leverage-heavy trading. BTC is now down about 7% year to date and is heading for one of its rare red years, despite relatively strong fundamentals.

    Wintermute echoed that caution, warning that price discovery is still happening “at the margin via derivatives,” leaving room for sudden air pockets when crowded positions unwind. Furthermore, funding rates remain compressed, options markets are pricing wide outcomes, and holiday trading desks are winding down, keeping liquidity thin.

    Looking ahead, the market maker expects quieter conditions into year-end, with range-bound trading unless a clear macro or policy trigger appears. While institutional involvement continues to grow, the firm cautioned that near-term moves are likely to be driven more by positioning than conviction, keeping volatility elevated even with activity slowing.

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  • Why Has The Solana Price Been In A Steady Downtrend Since January?

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    Solana’s price action this year has followed a clear but uncomfortable pattern. After pushing to a new all-time high around the $296 region in January, the rally quickly lost momentum and transitioned into a steady decline that has persisted for months. 

    Many traders have attributed this weakness to a risk-off sentiment across crypto, but a deeper on-chain breakdown shared by crypto analyst Ardi on X suggests the story began well before the January peak and has more to do with who was buying and who was quietly exiting.

    Distribution Was Already Underway Before The January Peak

    Solana has been on a clear downtrend since September, when it reached a lower high of around $247 compared to its January 19 all-time high of $293. One of the most important insights from Ardi’s analysis is that Solana’s January all-time high did not mark the start of distribution but rather the culmination of it. 

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    The chart attached to his post shows that selling volume was already increasing months earlier, well ahead of October, meaning that large holders were positioning for exits long before price reached its final peak. From that perspective, the January high looks less like the beginning of a new expansion phase and more like the last push of a rally. 

    Source: Chart from Ardi on X

    After that point, price action began forming lower highs, and each rebound attempt lacked the strength needed to reclaim the all-time high. Interestingly, Solana failed to reach a new all-time high, even as other large market cap cryptos like Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and BNB pushed to new all-time highs during the year.

    Another interesting feature of the data is the widening gap between retail behavior and that of larger players. Cumulative delta metrics on the chart show that retail-sized wallets have been consistently active throughout the year and are increasing their activity even as Solana’s price moved lower.

    On the other hand, mid-sized and institutional wallets tell a very different story. Their activity has been trending downward for months, starting from the January peak and extending up until the time of writing.

    Is Solana’s Price Becoming Dependent On Memecoin Activity?

    Ardi’s analysis also raises a broader question about what is currently driving demand for Solana. Outside of retail activity on Solana itself, one of the few consistent sources of activity has been the memecoin sector. Successes and booms of meme coins like Cat in a Dogs World (MEW), Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT), and Fartcoin (FARTCOIN), which gained traction in the second half of 2024, contributed to Solana’s push to all-time highs during those periods.

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    Those meme coin successes culminated with the launch of the Official Trump ($TRUMP) token in January 2025 on Solana, which experienced eye-watering gains shortly after its launch. This, in turn, contributed to Solana’s all-time high in January. 

    However, since then, the TRUMP token and other Solana-based meme coins have been trending downwards in recent months and no longer command the same level of attention or trading intensity they had this time last year. That has led to the view that Solana’s price is increasingly sensitive to the success of memecoins in its ecosystem. 

    At the time of writing, Solana is trading at $121.50, down by about 58.6% from its January all-time high of $293.

    Solana
    SOL trading at $121 on the 1D chart | Source: SOLUSDT on Tradingview.com

    Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

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    Scott Matherson

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  • Bitcoin Heads for Rare Red Year as October Crash Still Haunts Markets

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    Bitcoin is shaping up to end the year in the red, which will be just the fourth year in history it has done so.

    Bitcoin is currently down 7% so far YTD, and it has only ended the year in the red in 2014, 2018, and 2022. All three were bear market years, and 2025 isn’t, leading analysts and experts to ask: Is something broken?

    Many are specifically pointing at October 10, which saw BTC prices crash 10%, losing over $12,000 in a day or so in the industry’s largest leverage flush.

    “WTF happened on October 10th? Exchanges are saying they are fine. Market Makers are saying they are fine,” asked analyst ‘Max Crypto’ who added that crypto prices feel like a few big entities are selling non-stop.

    “This has really started to feel like a Luna event, when everyone said that we are fine, and it ended horribly.”

    Did October 10 Break Crypto?

    “Oct. 10 was the pivotal moment to where we sit today, and the overhang of ‘Crashtober’ still haunts us,” said investor George Bodine.

    The October 10 calamity occurred coincident with record runs in gold and silver, both of which did have momentum, he said before adding, “I have never seen the fundamentals behind Bitcoin as strong as this year.”

    “October 10 wasn’t just ugly – it exposed problems that still haven’t been fixed, which is why the market feels so bad even now,” said crypto analyst Scott Melker.

    Liquidity remains severely compromised, and market makers have become more cautious, not less, making this worse than before, he said.

    Additionally, altcoins show no genuine recovery, bleeding whenever Bitcoin weakens without attracting new capital. This indicates money is exiting the market entirely rather than rotating between assets, contrary to what healthy market behavior would show.

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    “October 10 broke something psychologically. It reminded everyone that this market can still just… fall apart. And once that realization sets in, behavior changes for a long time.”

    Until liquidity, participation, and conviction come back together, rallies will feel fragile, and selloffs will feel fast, he said.

    Is It All That Bad?

    Analyst ‘CrediBULL Crypto’ opined that the event didn’t break anything.

    “It was a massive deleveraging event, however, and we can see aggregate OI [open interest] has been bleeding ever since – which means confidence in positioning via perps has definitely taken a hit.”

    They said that if the price bottoms in this region and continues to rise, “we will see traders come back to the market like they always do, and OI will begin to rise once more.”

    Less leverage in the system is not a bad thing, “as it simply means this next rally is even more sustainable than the prior one.”

    Bitcoin was trading down on the day, struggling to maintain momentum above $87,000 at the time of writing.

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    Martin Young

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  • Analyst Reveals Bitcoin Make Or Break Level Amid Campaign For $90,000

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    Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at a critical level as market participants watch closely for its next major move. A crypto analyst has revealed that the leading cryptocurrency is approaching a make-or-break level as it hovers around a key support zone that has been holding the price in the short term. The analyst has also outlined clear upside and downside levels that could determine whether the Bitcoin price regains momentum towards $90,000 or faces renewed downward pressure. 

    Bitcoin To Face Make Or Break Zone At $100,000

    In an X post this Monday, crypto expert CyrilXBT presented a fresh Bitcoin market outlook suggesting its price could be nearing a critical make-or-break level. He noted that Bitcoin was still in a broader downtrend from its peak, but recent price action suggested the market may be forming a base rather than continuing lower. 

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    The accompanying chart clearly reflected this bearish structure. It showed a series of lower highs after the market peak, reinforcing the idea that BTC is presently in a decline. Price action was also compressed into a tight range above a highlighted support zone, signaling indecision between buyers and sellers. 

    Source: X

    According to CyrilXBT, fortunately, the $84,000 to $88,000 zone has been doing most of the heavy lifting, with buyers actively defending it. He revealed that repeated tests of this range had failed to produce a decisive breakdown, showing that demand remained present despite sustained selling pressure. 

    CyrilXBT has stated that as long as Bitcoin continues to hold the $84,000 to $88,000 region, prices will move upward at a slow but steady pace rather than making an explosive move. He noted that this type of structure often pushes BTC toward the $92,000 to $95,000 range, which he has set as BTC’s first upside target. This move is described as a recovery attempt within the existing trend rather than a complete reversal. 

    The analyst pointed to $100,000 as the most important level above the current price. He noted that this level had previously provided strong support and had now flipped to resistance. He further described $100,000 as the true make-or-break level that would determine whether Bitcoin could regain bullish momentum.

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    BTC Risks Crash If Resistance Fails 

    In his post, CyrilXBTC noted that if BTC fails to hold $100,000, its price outlook could turn bearish quickly. The crypto analyst disclosed that a loss of the $84,000 area could trigger a steeper decline toward lower support zones between $76,000 and $72,000. He also indicated that this area represented the next major level at which buyers could step in to prevent further downside.  

    At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading above $87,000 after declining by more than 8.5% this year. If a crash below $84,000 occurs, the cryptocurrency could lose between 12.6% and 17.2% of its market value.  

    Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com
    BTC price price continues dump | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

    Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

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    Sandra White

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  • The Gold-to-Bitcoin Rotation Narrative Gains Strength: A Data-Driven Review

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    Bitcoin is once again attempting to reclaim the $90,000 level, but price action remains capped below this key psychological threshold. Despite several short-lived relief rallies, momentum has failed to follow through, reinforcing growing concerns that the broader market structure is weakening.

    As volatility persists and upside attempts stall, an increasing number of analysts are beginning to openly discuss the possibility that Bitcoin may be transitioning into a bear market phase. Sentiment across derivatives and spot markets has turned noticeably more cautious, with risk appetite continuing to fade.

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    In this context, a recent report by Darkfost draws attention to a familiar but controversial narrative: capital rotation from gold into Bitcoin. With gold setting a new all-time high above $4,420 per ounce, the idea that investors may soon shift capital toward Bitcoin is resurfacing across the market.

    Historically, this narrative has gained traction during periods when traditional safe-haven assets outperform, fueling speculation that Bitcoin could follow as an alternative store of value.

    However, Darkfost cautions that this assumption is far from well-grounded. While the rotation thesis has been widely repeated throughout this cycle, empirical evidence linking gold outperformance directly to sustained Bitcoin inflows remains weak.

    Rather than signaling an imminent bullish turn, the current setup suggests that Bitcoin remains vulnerable, caught between macro-driven narratives and deteriorating internal market structure.

    Testing the Gold-to-Bitcoin Rotation Thesis

    Darkfost emphasizes that the popular narrative of capital rotating from gold into Bitcoin lacks direct, verifiable evidence. To address this, he constructed a comparative framework to identify periods where such rotations may have occurred. He did this without assuming a causal relationship. The core issue, as he notes, is that on-chain and market data cannot conclusively prove that capital exiting gold is the same capital entering Bitcoin.

    Gold – Bitcoin Rotation | Source: CryptoQuant

    To approximate potential rotation phases, Darkfost applied a simple but disciplined signal structure. A positive signal appears when Bitcoin is trading above its 180-day moving average while gold is trading below its own 180-day moving average. In theory, this configuration suggests relative strength shifting toward Bitcoin. Conversely, a negative signal is triggered when both Bitcoin and gold trade below their respective 180-day moving averages. Indicating a broad risk-off environment rather than a rotation.

    This methodology allows historical comparison across cycles, highlighting moments where relative performance diverged. However, the results challenge the simplicity of the narrative. As shown on the chart, these signals do not produce consistent or reliable outcomes. In several instances, supposed rotation periods failed to generate sustained upside for Bitcoin. At other times, Bitcoin rallied independently of gold’s trend.

    The takeaway is clear: capital rotation between gold and Bitcoin is not an absolute or mechanical process. Market behavior appears far more nuanced. Driven by broader macro conditions, liquidity dynamics, and investor positioning rather than a straightforward asset-to-asset rotation.

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    Price Struggles Below Key Moving Averages

    Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize after a sharp corrective phase, but the chart highlights that price action remains structurally fragile. BTC is currently trading just below the $90,000 level, an area that has flipped from support into near-term resistance following the recent breakdown. While the latest bounce shows short-term buying interest, it has not yet altered the broader bearish structure that formed after the October highs.

    BTC consolidates above key demand level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
    BTC consolidates above key demand level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

    From a trend perspective, Bitcoin is now trading below the 50-3D moving average (blue), which has started to slope downward, signaling weakening momentum. The failure to reclaim this level suggests that recent upside moves are corrective rather than impulsive.

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    Below the current price, the 100-3D moving average (green) sits near the $85,000–$86,000 zone and has acted as interim support during the rebound. A sustained loss of this area would likely expose BTC to a deeper retracement toward the 200-3D moving average (red), currently rising near the low $80,000 region.

    The sell-off was accompanied by elevated volume. While the rebound has occurred on comparatively lighter participation, pointing to a lack of conviction from buyers. Structurally, Bitcoin is consolidating in a lower range. With lower highs and compressed volatility suggesting a pause rather than a trend reversal.

    For bulls, reclaiming and holding above $90,000 and the declining 50-3D moving average is critical to invalidate the bearish bias. Until then, price action favors range-bound trading with downside risk still present.

    Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

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    Sebastian Villafuerte

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  • Bitcoin Suffers Worst Q4 Since 2018 Crash with Near-22% Plunge

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    Bitcoin is heading to its worst Q4 since 2018, down nearly 22% as macro pressure and fading demand weigh on prices.

    Bitcoin (BTC) is set to close the fourth quarter of 2025 with a loss of nearly 22%, marking its weakest Q4 performance since the 2018 market collapse.

    The sharp decline has unsettled traders and analysts alike, as on-chain signals, macro pressure, and fading speculative activity point to a fragile phase for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

    Bitcoin Posts Its Weakest Q4 in Seven Years

    The latest quarterly returns data for BTC gathered by Coinglass shows it is currently down by almost 22%. Since 2016, the flagship cryptocurrency has typically posted gains in the fourth quarter, often using the period to recover from summer weakness or extend bullish momentum.

    That pattern held firmly in recent years, with BTC climbing nearly 57% in Q4 2023 and almost 48% in Q4 2024, helped by spot ETF optimism and institutional inflows.

    The only comparable Q4 weakness occurred in 2018, when Bitcoin lost more than 42% during a prolonged bear market. While the current decline is smaller in magnitude, the structure is similar. According to Coinglass data, 2025 began with an 11.8% decline in Q1, followed by a rebound of nearly 30% in Q2 and modest gains of just over 6% in Q3. That sequence mirrors earlier cycles where mid-year recoveries failed to carry into year-end, signaling demand fatigue rather than a sudden shock.

    The concentration of losses in Q4 is also notable. Earlier quarterly gains suggested Bitcoin was holding up reasonably well through most of 2025, but the late-year breakdown points to a shift in market behavior. Historically, such Q4 declines have appeared when speculative interest fades and new capital struggles to replace earlier inflows, a pattern now echoed in on-chain data.

    At the time of writing, BTC was trading at around $89,000, up by just over 1% in the last 24 hours but down more than 2% over the past fortnight. Price action has remained choppy in recent weeks, with the asset moving within an $85,000 to $90,000 range over the last seven days. While it has gained close to 6% over the past month, the cryptocurrency remains down about 7% on a yearly basis and nearly 29% below its all-time high near $126,000 set in early October.

    You may also like:

    On-Chain Data and Macro Signals Paint a Cautious Picture

    Market observers on CryptoQuant have largely framed the Q4 slide as a continuation of a broader cooling phase rather than a sudden breakdown. Analyst GugaOnChain wrote that Bitcoin is still in a bear market, citing the Bull-Bear Cycle indicator and a negative spread between the 30-day and 365-day moving averages.

    On-chain activity has also softened, with daily transaction counts sliding from roughly 460,000 to 438,000 and highly active addresses falling to around 41,500, signaling reduced participation from large traders.

    Further insight from XWIN Research Japan shows that Bitcoin is moving through a “stop-and-go” phase following its earlier rebound. The firm linked part of the weakness to global macro conditions, including the Bank of Japan’s December 19 rate increase to 0.75%.

    Despite the move being widely expected, lingering uncertainty about future hikes has muted risk appetite, particularly for yen-funded trades tied to crypto markets.

    Additionally, leverage metrics suggest much of the excess speculation has already been cleared, with no meaningful rebuild despite price swings. XWIN also pointed out that the Coinbase Premium Index has improved from deeply negative levels but has yet to stay positive, hinting that strong U.S.-led spot demand remains limited.

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  • Bitcoin’s $126K Sprint May Be Over — Fidelity Predicts 2026 Slide

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    Fidelity’s top markets strategist has warned that Bitcoin’s October high of $126,000 could mark the top of the current cycle, and investors should be ready for a rough ride in 2026.

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    According to Jurrien Timmer, a notable pullback is possible next year with key support seen in a range of $65,000 to $75,000. That view sits alongside data points and trader commentary that recall past big drops after sharp peaks.

    Cycle Warning From Fidelity

    According to Timmer, Bitcoin’s price history follows a roughly four-year rhythm tied to halvings. Past peaks have been followed by steep corrections of about 70 to 85%.

    For example, after a high of $1,137 in 2013 the price slipped to roughly $230, and the 2017 peak near $14,050 later traded down toward $3,415. Prices surged again after 2021, and that pattern of parabolic advance then sharp retreat has been repeated. Some traders say those falls are tests of patience rather than a sign the story is broken.

    Historical Charts Show Parabolic Moves

    Reports have disclosed that long-term log charts help put these swings in perspective by showing percentage growth across cycles, which can make big-dollar moves easier to read.

    Market action often looks like a rapid climb to a peak, a quick drop, and a long period where prices move sideways and gains feel slow. Those sideways stretches are where many long-term holders are rewarded, though it can take years.

    Galaxy Research has flagged overlapping macro and market risks that make forecasting harder for 2026, and options and volatility trends suggest Bitcoin is behaving more like a macro asset than a pure growth gamble. Galaxy Research is still bullish on a multi-year view and projects a path toward $250,000 by the end of 2027.

    BTCUSD now trading at $89,510. Chart: TradingView

    First Quarter Patterns May Matter

    Based on reports from traders, the first quarter has in past cycles been a period that often supports price stability, although recent years have shown less regularity. Large inflows and treasury buys that could arrive in 2025 might be offset by early-cycle selling from big holders.

    The balance between institutional demand and whale supply will likely show itself in the first half of 2026, making that stretch important for whether historical four-year rhythms hold firm.

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    2026 Could Provide Clues

    If prices pull back into the $65,000–$75,000 area, it would fit the historical correction range and offer a test of market structure. Traders and investors will be watching liquidity, derivatives flows, and how quickly spot buyers step in after any sharp declines. Patience has paid off before; the largest gains came after extended calm, not right after the low was printed.

    Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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    Christian Encila

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  • Bitcoin Outlook Discord: Tom Lee Breaks Down Fundstrat’s Position

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    According to reports, Fundstrat analysts are sending mixed signals about Bitcoin’s path in 2026. One line of work inside the firm sees a noticeable pullback early next year, while another predicts new highs arriving soon after.

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    Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, is reported to have told clients that a “base case” would see Bitcoin move down toward the $60,000–$65,000 range in the first half of 2026.

    The same internal material attributes fallbacks for other major tokens — ETH toward about $1.8K–$2K and SOL near $50–$75 — which were framed as potential buying opportunities should markets correct.

    Risk Models And Shorter Time Horizons

    Farrell’s note, which has circulated as screenshots on social media and among clients, stresses risk management and the possibility of a meaningful drawdown before any sustained rally.

    The language in those client slides points to cautious positioning and to taking advantage of lower price levels if they arrive.

    Tom Lee’s Bullish Outlook Remains Publicly Strong

    By contrast, Tom Lee — Fundstrat’s co-founder and a longstanding voice on Bitcoin — has publicly said he expects new all-time highs in early 2026, with some media summaries quoting optimistic ranges as high as $200,000 by late January 2026.

    He has emphasized macro drivers, institutional flows, and cycle dynamics as reasons for continued upside in the coming months.

    Different Roles, Different Time Frames

    Reports have disclosed that the two views reflect different analytical roles inside the firm: one focused on portfolio-level downside planning and the other on longer-term macro scenarios.

    BTCUSD currently trading at $87,838. Chart: TradingView

    Several clients and observers on X (formerly Twitter) have pushed back on the idea that these are contradictory; instead, they say the notes reflect distinct mandates and time frames.

    Market Reaction and What Investors Are Hearing Now

    Markets reacted to the story with a mix of skepticism and quick profit-taking. Some traders flagged how fast sentiment can change when internal notes leak, while others said the range of outcomes — from roughly $60,000 to $200,000 — only underlines how uncertain forecasts remain for 2026.

    Trading desks are reported to be treating the internal slides as one input among many, not as an official firm forecast.

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    Public Takeaway

    According to the coverage, Fundstrat has not issued a unified, public forecast that collapses the two views into one number.

    Instead, clients and the market are being asked to weigh a downside scenario presented by the digital-assets team against a bullish macro scenario voiced by leadership.

    Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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    Christian Encila

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  • Litecoin Follows Bitcoin’s Momentum, But Resistance Looms At $79.60

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    According to CryptoWzrd’s daily update, Litecoin (LTC) closed the day on a bullish note, closely tracking Bitcoin’s overall market sentiment. While holding above $75.20 keeps the outlook positive, a break below this level would signal bearish pressure. Conversely, a retest of the $79.60 resistance coupled with signs of weakness could present a potential shorting opportunity.

    Litecoin Mirrors Bitcoin’s Momentum In Daily Close

    Based on CryptoWzrd analysis, both the daily candles for Litecoin and the LTC/BTC ratio closed in a bullish orientation today, largely mirroring the positive sentiment set by Bitcoin. However, the analyst cautioned that for the LTC/BTC pair to confirm a sustained bullish turn, it must continue to print more bullish daily candles from its current location.

    CryptoWzrd emphasized that Litecoin’s overall movement remains highly tethered to Bitcoin’s general market sentiment. For Litecoin, the immediate key to maintaining a favorable outlook is holding above the $80 level. This price point is crucial as it keeps the asset firmly within positive territory and above a critical support line.

    Conversely, the analyst warned that a decisive break and close below the $80 support would instantly shift the outlook to bearish. Such a failure would validate further downside, targeting the next significant support level, which is projected to be around $68. This $80 mark is therefore the structural line separating positive and negative momentum.

    Given the weekend, the analyst’s immediate trading focus will shift to lower-timeframe charts in search of quick scalp opportunities for the following day. Despite this tactical shift, he advises maintaining rational expectations, acknowledging that low-liquidity weekend sessions often limit decisive moves and necessitate caution.

    Intraday Volatility Sets The Stage For Key Trades

    CryptoWzrd added to his analysis by noting that the intraday chart for LTC had been quite volatile, requiring a calculated approach to entries. He outlined a clear positive scenario if the price were to successfully retest the key $75.20 support level and then follow up by printing a visible bullish reversal pattern.

    However, the analyst noted that a decisive break below the $75.20 support would invalidate the bullish hope and signal a short continuation trade. Another scenario involves a move up to test the $79.60 resistance level, where a clear bearish reversal pattern would confirm a rejection and trigger a short entry.

    Essentially, the strategy relies on waiting for the price to confirm its direction at the defined boundaries. CryptoWzrd concluded by advising traders to exercise patience and wait for the next mature trade opportunity to fully unfold and validate the intended direction before committing to a position.

    Litecoin

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    Godspower Owie

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  • Banks Could Favor A Higher XRP Price, Finance Expert Says

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    XRP has continued to trade lower as crypto prices weaken across the board, with the total market shedding more than $1.3 trillion since October.

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    During the past three months, XRP has dropped more than 30%, keeping pressure on sentiment even as some commentators argue the token’s purpose goes far beyond short-term price moves.

    Retail Vs. Institutional Viewpoint

    According to health and finance commentator Dr. Camila Stevenson, much of the debate around XRP misses how large financial players judge settlement tools.

    Everyday traders tend to focus on charts and quick exits. Banks do not. They look at whether a system can handle stress, move large sums, and keep working when conditions worsen.
    Stevenson compared it to infrastructure testing, where strength and capacity matter more than the initial cost.

    XRP Was Built For Flows

    Based on reports from her recent video discussion, XRP was structured to act as a bridge for moving value, not as a speculative chip. With a fixed supply, the token cannot expand in quantity to meet higher transaction demand.

    Stevenson said that leaves price as the only way to support larger volumes. Analyst XFinanceBull echoed this view, encouraging market watchers to think in terms of flows rather than daily price action.

    Price Alone Does Not Prove Use

    Even so, market behavior still plays a major role. XRP trades in open markets, and speculation continues to influence price direction.

    A higher price may improve efficiency, but it does not guarantee adoption. Stevenson pointed out that many institutions position through custodians, OTC desks, and private agreements.

    These transactions often happen quietly and may not show up as sharp moves on public charts. Sudden spikes during positioning, she warned, would suggest instability rather than healthy use.

    XRPUSD now trading at $1.92. Chart: TradingView

    Why Higher Price Helps

    Stevenson argued that banks moving billions would rather use fewer units that each represent more value. Fewer tokens can mean simpler settlement and less risk of slippage during busy periods.

    Large financial systems tend to fail when money cannot move or when settlement slows, not when prices fall. In that context, a higher XRP price could support smoother transfers if volumes rise enough to test the system.

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    Market Reality Remains Mixed

    Despite the theory, clear proof of large-scale institutional demand remains limited. Regulation, liquidity depth, and reliable access still shape whether banks commit real volume.

    XRP’s 33% slide over recent months shows how quickly sentiment can shift, even as long-term use cases are debated. The idea that banks prefer a higher XRP price rests on future scale, not current trading patterns.

    Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

     

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    Christian Encila

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  • What to know about the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike

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    The Bank of Japan raised its key policy rate to a 30-year high on Friday to help curb inflation, as widely expected, and financial markets took the move in stride.

    The 0.25 percentage point hike took the BOJ’s benchmark short-term rate to 0.75%, its highest level since September 1995. It will raise costs for mortgages and other loans, but also boost yields on savings deposits.

    “It is highly likely that wages and prices will continue to rise moderately,” BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda told reporters. “Risks to the economy have diminished, but we must remain vigilant.”

    Inflation has long remained above the BOJ’s target of about 2%. It was 3% in November, excluding volatile fresh food costs.

    The 0.75% rate is still low by most standards, but the BOJ has kept that rate near or below zero for years, trying to pull the economy out of a deflationary funk. Since the pandemic, most other central banks, like the U.S. Federal Reserve, have raised rates to counter spiking inflation and then begun cutting them to help their slowing economies recover momentum.

    Japan’s own economy contracted at a 2.3% annual rate in the last quarter, but improved business sentiment and price pressures have led the BOJ to relent and raise rates. Here are some things to know about its decision.

    Since Japan’s economic bubble burst in the early 1990s, the central bank has kept borrowing costs low to encourage more spending by businesses and consumers.

    Lower interest rates have also helped the central bank manage the country’s massive national debt, which amounts to nearly triple the size of the economy.

    As Japan’s population has aged and begun declining, its economy has slowed and that led to deflation, or falling prices due to weak demand. Even with cheap credit, investment has lagged, stunting economic growth.

    In early 2013, the central bank launched what was dubbed a “big bazooka” of monetary easing, cutting interest rates and purchasing government bonds and other securities to help channel more money into the economy. When the COVID-19 pandemic struck, the benchmark interest rate was at minus 0.1%. The BOJ only began raising it in 2024, the first hike in 17 years, after inflation stabilized above its target of about 2%.

    The Japanese yen has weakened against the U.S. dollar and many other major currencies. So Japanese consumers and companies pay more now for imported food, fuel and other items needed to keep the world’s fourth largest economy running.

    The strong appetite for investing in dollar-denominated shares of companies linked to the artificial intelligence boom has also pulled money out of the yen and into dollars.

    So inflation has risen faster than wages, squeezing household budgets and raising costs for businesses.

    Higher interest rates will raise the value of the yen against the dollar, likely drawing investment into Japan seeking higher yen-denominated yields. That could push the yen higher, given that the BOJ has signaled it expects to continue raising rates.

    “The BOJ’s stance towards rate hikes reflects the fact that inflation is becoming entrenched,” Kei Fujimoto, a senior economist at SuMi Trust, said in a commentary. “If drivers such as a further depreciation of the yen accelerate inflation going forward, it is possible that the pace of rate hikes will also increase accordingly.”

    The planned rate hike was reported by Japanese media ahead of time, giving investors a head start on adjusting their portfolios.

    Initially, the yen weakened after Friday’s rate hike, as the dollar rose to 157 yen, nearly twice its level in 2012 and near its highest level this year.

    Still, even small changes in interest rates can have a big impact. Analysts have forecast that higher rates in Japan may undermine an investment strategy known as the “carry trade.” That involves investors borrowing cheaply in yen and then using that money to invest in higher paying assets elsewhere.

    Carry trades are lucrative when stocks and other investments are climbing, but losses can snowball if many traders face pressure to sell stocks or other assets all at once.

    Higher rates in Japan may also crimp demand for other assets, including cryptocurrencies. Last week, expectations about the rate hike caused the price of bitcoin, for example, to drop below $86,000. It had bolted to record highs near $125,000 in early October. Bitcoin was trading at about $88,000 early Friday.

    Judging the timing and scale of changes to interest rates and other monetary policies is the biggest challenge for central banks, given the time it takes for such moves to ripple throughout the real economy and financial markets.

    Like the Federal Reserve, Japan’s central bank struggles to balance the need to boost business activity and create jobs with the imperative of containing inflation.

    The BOJ held off on raising rates earlier given uncertainties over how U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs might hit automakers and other exporters. A deal setting U.S. duties on imports from Japan at 15%, down from the earlier plan for a 25% rate, has helped ease those concerns.

    Ueda, the BOJ governor, noted that with inflation at about 3%, real interest rates remain in negative territory.

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  • Philly man’s bitcoin mining scheme allegedly defrauded investors of $48.5 million

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    Danh C. Vo, the founder of the former VBit Technologies Corp., is accused of defrauding thousands of investors in the bitcoin mining company in a scheme that promised them profits, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission says.

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    Michael Tanenbaum

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  • Did Crypto Investors Stop Believing In The Four-Year Cycle? Analyst Weighs In

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    With only two weeks left of 2025, market participants wonder whether the Bitcoin (BTC) and the rest of the crypto market will continue to struggle or begin recovering. An analyst discussed the current market sentiment and the impact it may have on market performance.

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    The Four-Year Crypto Cycle Is ‘Like Faith In God’

    As we approach the end of the year, concerns about the crypto market’s performance continue to mount. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has seen a 30% decline from its early October peak.

    As the volatility persist and the flagship crypto trades below its yearly opening price of $93,500, some investors questioned the four-year cycle theory, suggesting that the theory may no longer hold after the recent market’s performance.

    Responding to one of these comments, pseudonym market observer Plur affirmed that the four-year crypto cycle has evolved over the years and that “there is no magical rule of nature stating price must go up and down on this fixed cadence.”

    The analyst explained that the theory is a “memetic consensus, which is a form of implicit agreement and coordination that people will buy and sell together at set times, and by doing so, force outsiders to participate and bring their money.”

    “It’s an egregore-as-cartel. It’s a large group of loosely connected people all saying, every 4 years, we are going to hike up and down this mountain at the same time,” he detailed on the Wednesday post.

    Another community member added that the crypto cycle “is like faith in God: everyone believes in it, but no one has ever seen it.” Plur added that the initial catalyst and “original metronome” of this theory was the halving but that it has become “something more than that.”

    Market Struggles As Investors’ Faith Splits

    The evolution of the four-year crypto cycle has led some market participants to try to shift their behavior to “front run the moves of others” to benefit more.” As a result, many investors started to sell aggressively in 2025 anticipating of the end of the cycle.

    To the market watcher, this “represents a fraying in the memetic consensus, and eventually it collapses, as belief decays.” Similarly, Ark Invest’s CEO, Cathie Wood, recently affirmed that Bitcoin is currently “climbing another wall of worry” that has made investors cautious of the upcoming market performance.

    She explained that there is fear of the four-year cycle, which suggests that 2026 will be a corrective year. Plur noted that the crypto market is in an uncertain state, where some investors continue to believe in the theory and some don’t.

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    “The biggest impact that might have is not giving people enough confidence to buy on the upswing. Remember how assured you felt buying in 2023? Now the troops are scattered because the coordination mechanism is gone,” he stated.

    Plur added that “in equities the memetic consensus is that the index will always grind up over time, buy the dip, trust the process. (…) I had been hopeful that something similar could come in for BTC to replace the 4 year cycle, but sell pressure was way too high,” leading to the indeterminate state of the market. He concluded that it’s time to wait and see if a new form of memetic consensus can form.

    Total crypto market capitalization is at $2.92 trillion in the one-week chart. source: TOTAL on TradingView

    Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

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    Rubmar Garcia

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  • 5,606 Bitcoin: Lightning Network Sets Fresh Capacity Record

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    Lightning Network capacity hit a new high this week as major exchanges put more Bitcoin into off-chain channels, boosting the network’s total liquidity and changing how users move BTC.

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    Exchange Support Drives Capacity

    According to reports, the Lightning Network’s public capacity climbed to about 5,606 BTC, with some trackers briefly showing a peak near 5,637 BTC. That is a clear uptick from earlier levels and marks the highest recorded total so far.

    Exchanges including Binance and OKX have been named as contributors that added Bitcoin to Lightning channels, and other platforms such as Kraken and Bitfinex are expanding their support as well. These deposits are aimed at speeding up deposits and withdrawals and cutting fees for customers.

    Network Activity Vs. Public Nodes

    Based on reports, that increase in capacity has not been matched by a big rise in the number of public nodes or channels. Public node counts sit near 14,940, while public channels are roughly 48,678.

    In other words, more Bitcoin is available inside the network, but the number of hands handling traffic has not jumped in the same way. Some of this extra liquidity is concentrated in larger, custodial channels run by exchanges, which can move big sums without creating many new public routes.

    BTCUSD now trading at $86,366. Chart: TradingView

    That makes on-chain metrics a bit harder to read. Transaction counts and on-chain fee savings do show real user benefits, even when the node graph looks stable.

    A separate figure that shows real usage is the share of exchange traffic routed over Lightning. Based on reports, one exchange has routed around 15% of its Bitcoin transactions via Lightning rails after adopting Lightning integrations, pointing to meaningful operational changes at major platforms.

    New Use Cases And Funding

    Funding and protocol work are following capacity growth. Tether led a round that raised about $8 million for a startup focused on payments over Lightning, indicating interest in stablecoin flows on the network.

    Protocol upgrades — including work around Taproot-related asset handling and reliability improvements — are also being rolled out to support more varied payments and token types. These developments point to Lightning being used for things beyond tiny tips: remittances, merchant payments, and stablecoin transfers are being tested more widely.

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    Market watchers say this mix of exchange liquidity, developer upgrades, and rising on-platform usage could make Lightning a more practical rail for everyday BTC movement.

    Some critics warn that heavier reliance on custodial channels raises centralization risks and reduces the visibility of true peer-to-peer routing. Others note that improved user experience, lower costs, and faster finality are what ordinary users will notice first.

    Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

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    Christian Encila

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