The Dogecoin Relative Strength Index (RSI) is said to have entered historical oversold levels. This has raised the possibility that the foremost meme coin could repeat its parabolic rally in the 2021 bull cycle.
Dogecoin Eyes Parabolic Rally As RSI Enters Oversold Levels
Crypto analyst Cryptollica has indicated that the Dogecoin price could record another parabolic rally as the RSI enters oversold levels. In an X post, the analyst noted that this is the fourth time in 12 years that the DOGE RSI has been this oversold, and that every time this has happened, it has been life-changing.
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Cryptollica further remarked that the drop in Dogecoin’s RSI to this low has always been an “epic buying opportunity” and that those who loaded up made insane gains. In line with this, the analyst remarked that this is another massive opportunity. Meanwhile, Cryptollica alluded to previous times when the RSI dropped this low, including during the last cycle bottom, when DOGE dropped to $0.5.
Dogecoin rallied to a new all-time high (ATH) of $0.74 after bottoming at $0.05, recording massive gains in the process. Cryptollica noted that these setups don’t come often and urged market participants not to miss this one. His accompanying chart suggested that DOGE could rally to the psychological $1 level this time around, marking a new ATH for the foremost meme coin.
DOGE Mirroring Past Accumulation Pattern
In another X post, Cryptollica highlighted a similar DOGE/BTC pattern between the 2014-2017 and 2021-2026 accumulations. The analyst stated that the structure is identical and assured that the bleed against Bitcoin is not “death” but the necessary energy compression before the rotation. Cryptollica added that when the green line breaks, risk appetite changes instantly.
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Meanwhile, Cryptollica declared that the fractal was loading, with Dogecoin set to be the heartbeat of the altcoin cycle. The analyst claimed that this is the final stage of a multi-year compression against Bitcoin. This historically leads to a specific volatility squeeze that precedes a massive capital rotation from BTC to altcoins.
Crypto analyst Bitcoinsensus raised the possibility of a Dogecoin rally to $0.70, which could be near. This came as the analyst noted that DOGE has been moving in a nice way up throughout this entire bull cycle. This is said to be evident in the mini cycles, with the foremost meme coin tapping the dotted line, followed by a slow retrace. Based on this pattern, Bitcoinensus noted that DOGE could soon target the $0.70 range if the strong momentum in the crypto market returns.
At the time of writing, the Dogecoin price is trading at around $0.137, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
DOGE trading at $0.13 on the 1D chart | Source: DOGEUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
According to analysts at JPMorgan, crypto-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs), particularly for Bitcoin (BTC), are expected to see inflows in 2026 that will far exceed those from 2025.
Led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the analysis highlights a significant trend where capital flowing into the crypto market through ETFs reached a record high of $130 billion last year, driven by a growing interest in digital asset treasuries (DATs).
DAT Companies Lead Crypto Inflows In 2025
Panigirtzoglou explained that the inflows observed in 2025 were largely attributed to Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs, which the analyst suggests were primarily fueled by retail investors, as well as Bitcoin acquisitions by DAT companies.
In contrast, participation from institutional investors and hedge funds, as indicated by the buying activity in Bitcoin and Ethereum Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures, appeared to have declined compared to 2024.
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The analysts noted that over half of the total digital asset inflows in 2025, approximately $68 billion, came from DAT companies. Another $23 billion was attributed to formal strategies, marking a slight increase from $22 billion in Bitcoin buying from the previous year.
Notably, other DATs acquired about $45 billion in digital assets, a significant rise from just $8 billion in 2024. However, most of these purchases occurred earlier in the year, and by October, the momentum in crypto buying from DATs had markedly decreased.
Crypto venture capital funding also contributed to the overall capital flows, though this area remained substantially lower than the peaks experienced in 2021 and 2022.
While total crypto venture capital funding saw a modest increase in 2025 compared to 2024, the number of deals declined sharply, and investment activity became increasingly concentrated in later-stage funding rounds.
JPMorgan further suggested that this muted growth in venture funding was, in part, due to the increasing allocation of capital toward DATs. Funds that might have otherwise been directed to early-stage startups were increasingly diverted toward treasury strategies that provide immediate liquidity.
Regulatory Changes Anticipated To Boost Institutional Interest
Looking forward, the analysts expect a rebound in institutional crypto flows in 2026, which could be spurred by the anticipated passage of additional regulatory measures, such as the Crypto Market Structure Bill (CLARITY Act) in the US.
This anticipated legislation is expected to further entrench institutional adoption of digital assets, along with renewed institutional engagement in areas like venture capital funding, mergers and acquisitions, and initial public offerings (IPOs).
However, the expected markup of this bill has been delayed late on Wednesday, as crypto industry leaders, including the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN), have withdrawn their support for the legislation.
This is attributed to issues related to key provisions, which the firm’s CEO, Brian Armstrong, has described as making this version “materially worse than the current status quo”.
The daily chart shows BTC’s price inching closer to regaining the key $100,000 milestone. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
At the time of writing, the market’s leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, was trading at $96,050, having recorded gains of 10% over the previous fourteen days, as broader inflows have already returned to the market since the beginning of the year.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
2025 was a milestone year for BTC and other cryptocurrencies. The passing of the GENIUS Act in the U.S., which regulates U.S. dollar stablecoins, confirmed crypto’s status as a mainstream asset. Equally important was the proliferation of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Canada, the US, and other countries. Investors no longer need to jump through hoops or navigate the crypto ecosystem to invest in BTC, ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL) or other cryptocurrencies. Now, getting exposure to crypto is as easy as buying an S&P 500 Index ETF or a S&P/TSX Composite Index ETF.
How did BTC perform as an investment in 2025? Although it was down a relatively modest 7.32% from the beginning to the end of 2025, investors experienced wild up and down swings through the year. Here’s how much BTC gained or lost in each quarter of 2025.
What the Venezuela crisis means for BTC
2026 is off to a wild start. The US special forces entered Venezuela, captured the country’s leader Nicholas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and flew them to New York to face charges.
How does this affect BTC? BTC trades in two ways: sometimes as a safe haven asset like gold, and other times like a technology stock that rips higher in times of market optimism and exuberance. In the weeks since this year began, BTC has traded like a safe haven asset, gaining on the back of rising geopolitical tensions exemplified by the US military action in Venezuela.
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From the beginning of 2026 to now (mid January 2026) BTC has gained over 8% and gold is up about 5%. Why so? Much of the geopolitical uncertainty these days is caused by actions taken by, or statements made by the US government. As a result, investors are on the lookout for assets that are—at least partially—independent of US government influence.
Enter gold and BTC. They’re both globally traded assets that aren’t structurally controlled by the US—or any other country. Further, both are considered by many investors to be alternative forms of money. In fact, gold and BTC are often clubbed together as hard assets; that is, assets the value of which cannot easily be manipulated or inflated by governments, including the US.
Does this mean that the price of BTC will continue to rise this year as long as geopolitical uncertainty persists? It’s not that simple.
BTC’s fate in 2026 will depend on inflation and interest rates
While BTC—like gold—does rise on the back of geopolitical uncertainty, it is also (somewhat paradoxically) considered a risk-on asset. In other words, just like stocks, it gains substantially in low-interest rate regimes when the market is flush with liquidity. Therefore, for BTC to gain substantially in 2026, inflation (especially in the US, which is the world’s largest capital market) would need to be soft and interest rates would need to remain low.
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US inflation data right now is encouraging, with the headline U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for December 2025 coming in at 2.7% on an annual basis. This is in line with expectations and within the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) comfort zone—which means that the Fed may not be in a hurry to raise interest rates. This is positive news for BTC.
The chart below shows the CPI trajectory from 2021 to the latest print for December 2025. As is clear from the chart, CPI has remained relatively low—within the 2% to 3% band—for well over a year on the back of soft crude oil prices and efficiency gains from the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI).
Where BTC goes in 2026 will in no small part depend on the price of oil, the continued adoption of AI by large global companies, and the effect these will have on inflation.
Crypto price swings are common
Cryptocurrencies including BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, BNB, and others are speculative and highly volatile assets subject to significant price movements. Even stablecoins, which are seemingly “safe,” may be risky if not adequately backed by real-world assets.
Investing in bitcoin and other crypto coins carries significant market, technological, and regulatory risks. Invest in crypto only if it aligns with your broader investment goals, time horizon, and risk profile, and always stay vigilant about crypto scams.
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Aditya Nain is an author, speaker and educator who writes about Canadian investments, personal finance and crypto. He has co-authored two books and taught at universities for 12 years.
Depending on which corner of the internet you hang out on, your view on how safe or unsafe crypto is will vary wildly. While some have unrelenting trust in crypto’s transparency and speed, others associate it with scary news headlines and grey markets. When talking about casinos using crypto, things only get more hotly debated.
At the core of the problem is a lack of a mature, regulated market, meaning both good and bad operations co-exist. A secure crypto casino like Razed must be trusted based on other customer reviews and its overseas license, making it hard to differentiate from an untrusted operation.
The secure crypto casinos will generally use encryption and decentralized servers to make sure that user data is private and that their activity is mostly anonymous. KYC is minimal.
Crypto gambling websites do a good job in boasting about their “Provably Fair” algorithms, and rightly so, as this is the first time where players can now verify the randomness of every spin themselves by checking the blockchain.
This level of transparency was non-existent in traditional fiat-based systems, though, you had the benefit of relying on the license provider to check for you, which has its own set of benefits.
It is the move towards open-source verification that has shifted the burden of trust from a brand’s reputation or the license provider to logic of the code itself. In other words, in a less regulated market, the onus is on the individual to look after themselves. When looking at the Razed casino model, its security only becomes clear after you really inspect it, and this is a concern for non-technical customers.
Blockchain integrity
One of the main factors contributing to security in 2026 is the stability of major networks. The technology of Ethereum has moved on to support faster and more secure transactions than ever before, reducing the risk of network congestion or lost funds. Smart contracts handle the payouts, but it is up to the casinos individually to implement safety measures in terms of limitations (things that are automatic at normal casinos). Again, this means the ceiling for crypto casinos is high, but the floor is low. Withdrawal friction may be low, and actually, it may be more able than fiat casinos to payout during a busy liquidity crunch period – the operator has no ability to slow down or freeze the funds.
The legal landscape
The perceived safety of digital gambling is often tied to global regulations. In 2026, things are progressing to raise the floor. Many jurisdictions are coming forward with clear frameworks for blockchain-based gaming. These laws require operators to hold specific licenses and undergo regular third-party audits, though there is still a lack of high-authority jurisdictions with their own crypto casino licenses.
By nature, crypto is decentralized and therefore global. It’s very difficult for countries to stop their citizens from using overseas platforms, especially when they simply use a VPN. But greater regulation can help legitimacy and bring trust to those who are less technical.
While no online activity is entirely without risk, gambling with crypto in 2026 is safer than it has ever been. If you don’t have the skills to examine the smart contracts yourself, you can rely on customer reviews, licenses, and growing regulation.
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Bitcoin’s early-2026 bounce has pushed back into a familiar problem area: a dense pocket of overhead supply that Glassnode says has repeatedly capped rallies since November. In its latest Week On-chain report, the analytics firm frames the move above $96,000 as constructive on the surface, but still largely dependent on derivatives positioning and liquidity conditions rather than persistent spot accumulation.
Glassnode’s central argument is that Bitcoin has rallied straight into a historically significant band of long-term holder (LTH) cost basis, built during April to July 2025 and associated with sustained distribution near cycle highs. The report describes a “dense cluster” spanning roughly $93K to $110K, with rebounds since November repeatedly stalling near the lower boundary.
“This region has consistently acted as a transition barrier, separating corrective phases from durable bull regimes,” Glassnode wrote. “With price once again pressing into this overhead supply, the market now faces a familiar test of resilience, where absorbing long-term holder distribution remains a prerequisite for any broader trend reversal.” The firm’s framing is blunt: the market is back at the same sell ceiling, and clearing it requires real absorption, not just price probing.
Bitcoin long-term holder cost basis distribution heatmap | Source: Glassnode
The next level the report highlights is the short-term holder (STH) cost basis at $98.3K, which it treats as a confidence gauge for newer buyers. Sustained trading above it would indicate that recent demand is strong enough to keep late entrants in profit while soaking up overhead supply.
On-chain, Glassnode notes long-term holders remain net sellers, with total LTH supply still trending lower. The key change is speed. The report says the rate of decline has “slowed materially” versus the aggressive distribution seen in Q3 and Q4 2025, suggesting profit-taking is continuing but with less intensity.
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“What follows will depend primarily on the demand side’s ability to absorb this supply, particularly from investors accumulated over Q2 2025,” the report said. “Failure to hold above the True Market Mean at ~$81k, in the long term, would significantly increase the risk of a deeper capitulation phase, reminiscent of the April 2022 to April 2023 period.” It is one of the clearest downside conditionals in the note: if the market loses the long-run mean, the probability distribution shifts toward a more severe unwind.
A related signal is the Net Realized Profit and Loss of Long-Term Holders, which Glassnode says reflects a “markedly cooler distribution regime.” Long-term holders are realizing roughly 12.8K BTC per week in net profit, a sharp slowdown from cycle peaks above 100K BTC per week. That moderation does not imply capitulation risk is gone, but it does suggest the heaviest phase of profit-taking has eased.
Bitcoin Demand Remains Uneven
Off-chain indicators lean more constructive. Glassnode argues institutional balance-sheet flows have “gone through a full reset” after months of heavy outflows across spot ETFs, corporates, and sovereign entities, with net flows stabilizing as sell-side pressure appears exhausted. Spot ETFs are described as the first cohort to turn positive again, re-establishing themselves as the primary marginal buyer.
Corporate and sovereign treasury flows, by contrast, are portrayed as sporadic and event-driven rather than consistent. The upshot is a market where balance-sheet demand can help stabilize price, but may not yet function as a sustained growth engine, leaving short-term direction more sensitive to derivatives positioning and liquidity conditions.
DAT netflows | Source: Glassnode
At the venue level, Glassnode points to improving spot behavior. Binance and aggregate exchange flow measures have shifted back into buy-dominant regimes, and Coinbase, described as a consistent source of sell-side aggression during the consolidation, has “meaningfully slowed its selling activity.” The report calls this a constructive structural shift, while stressing it still falls short of the persistent, aggressive accumulation typically associated with full trend expansions.
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The most pointed caution in the report is that the move into the $96K region was “mechanically reinforced” by short liquidations in a relatively thin liquidity environment. Futures turnover remains well below the elevated activity seen across most of 2025, implying it took comparatively little capital to force shorts out and push price through resistance.
“This indicates that the breakout occurred in a comparatively light liquidity environment, where modest positioning shifts were able to drive disproportionately large price responses,” Glassnode said. “In practical terms, it did not take significant new capital to force shorts out of the market and lift price through resistance.” The implication is that continuation now depends on whether spot demand and sustained volume can replace forced covering once the squeeze impulse fades.
Options markets add a second layer of tension. Glassnode describes implied volatility as low but “deferred,” while skew continues to price downside asymmetry, with 25-delta skew biased toward puts in mid and longer maturities. In short: participants appear comfortable holding exposure, but remain unwilling to do so without insurance.
Cumulative Volume Delta Bias | Source: Glassnode
Positioning also matters at the microstructure level. The report flags dealers as short gamma around spot, with a zone roughly from $94K to $104K. In that setup, hedging flows can amplify moves rather than dampen them, buying into rallies and selling into dips, raising the odds of faster travel toward high-interest strikes such as $100K if momentum takes hold.
Bitcoin (BTC) and the stock market have experienced sharp price swings and declines since 2025. Because of this volatility, a crypto analyst has warned that the market correction could intensify further in 2026. In a detailed analysis, he outlines a bearish scenario for Bitcoin, suggesting the flagship cryptocurrency could soon face another price crash amid persistent downward pressure in the broader stock market.
Analyst Warns Of Major Bitcoin And Stock Market Plunge
Market analyst Doctor Profit has raised concerns about the direction of the crypto and traditional markets, warning that both Bitcoin and stocks are currently in a severe bear market. In a technical breakdown on X this Monday, the expert highlighted three major bearish setups forming simultaneously in Bitcoin.
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He highlighted a massive Bearish Divergence on the weekly and monthly charts, a clear bearish flag signaling a potential drop toward $70,000, and a possible Head and Shoulder pattern that could still play out. While he acknowledged that Bitcoin could still experience short-term price increases and briefly rise toward the $97,000-$107,000 range due to strong liquidity, he said that the ultimate target remains $70,000.
Doctor Profit emphasized that Bitcoin’s potential decline to $70,000 could go two ways. It could either break out of the bearish flag to that downside target or complete the Head and Shoulders pattern before reaching $70,000. He stated that he will not add new short positions at current prices but plans to increase them aggressively from $115,000 to $125,000 if Bitcoin moves into the $97,000 to $107,000 range.
The analyst painted a similarly grim picture for the stock market. He said he was “ultra-bearish” on both Bitcoin and the financial system. He also noted that the banks are stressed and that forced liquidations in precious metals like Silver are creating ripples across the broader market.
Additionally, Doctor Profit noted that insider activity shows clear signs of panic among investors, with record levels of selling since August 2025. Because of this, the analyst believes that the market is heading for a 2008-style crash. Consequently, he has concluded that the current market conditions are too extreme.
On the bright side, Doctor Profit said that although he maintains short positions on stocks and Bitcoin, he remains bullish on Gold and Silver. He explained that any upside to the $97,000-$107,000 range will prompt him to increase his short exposure and roll spot profits for BTC from $85,000 into these positions.
Crypto Markets Brace For Key US Decisions
Toward the end of his analysis, Doctor Profit discussed upcoming events that could influence Bitcoin and the broader financial markets this week. He stated that the US CPI inflation forecast of 2.7% will be released this Tuesday. Other than this, the rest of the week is expected to have few market-moving events.
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Doctor Profit has also highlighted January 15 as an important date because US lawmakers will vote on the CLARITY Act. He explained that if the bill passes, it will move closer to becoming law, setting clear rules and oversight for the crypto market.
BTC trading at $92,333 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Opeyemi is a proficient writer and enthusiast in the exciting and unique cryptocurrency realm. While the digital asset industry was not his first choice, he has remained absolutely drawn since making a foray into the space over two years. Now, Opeyemi takes pride in creating unique pieces unraveling the complexities of blockchain technology and sharing insights on the latest trends in the world of cryptocurrencies.
Opeyemi savors his attraction to the crypto market, which explains why he spends the better parts of his day looking through different price charts. “Looking” is a rather simple way to describe analyzing and interpreting various price patterns and chart formations. However, it appears that is not Opeyemi’s favorite part – in fact, far from it.
Being able to connect what happens on a price chart to on-chain movements and blockchain activities is what keeps Opeyemi ticking. “This emphasizes the intricacies of blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency market,” he would say. Most importantly, Opeyemi thinks of any market insights as the gospel, while recognizing that he is only a messenger.
When he is not clicking away at his keyboard, Opeyemi is most definitely listening to music, playing games, reading a book, or scrolling through X. He likes to think he is not loyal to a particular genre of music, which can be true on many days. However, the fast-rising Afrobeats genre is a staple in Opeyemi’s Spotify Daily Mix.
Meanwhile, Opeyemi is a voracious reader who enjoys a wide category of books – ranging from science fiction, fantasy, and historical, to even romance. He believes that authors like George R. R. Martin and J. K. Rowling are the greatest of all time when it comes to putting pen to paper. Opeyemi believes his reading of the Harry Potter series twice is proof of that.
Indeed, Opeyemi enjoys spending most of his time within the four walls of his home. However, he also sometimes finds solace in the company of his friends at a bar, a restaurant, or even on a stroll. In essence, Opeyemi’s ambivert (haha! been searching for an opportunity to use the word to describe myself) nature makes him a social chameleon who is able to quickly adapt to different settings.
Opeyemi recognizes the need to constantly develop oneself in order to stay afloat in a competitive and ever-evolving market like crypto. For this reason, he is always in learning mode, ready to pick up the slightest lesson from every situation. Opeyemi is efficient and likes to deliver all that is required of him in time – he believes that “whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well.” Hence, you will always find him striving to be better.
Ultimately, Opeyemi is a good writer and an even better person who is trying to shed light on an exciting world phenomenon – cryptocurrency. He goes to bed every day with a smile of satisfaction on his face, knowing that he has done his bit of the holy assignment – spreading the crypto gospel to the rest of the world.
According to TradingView data, big holders on Bitfinex have been trimming long positions after a late-December peak of 73,000 BTC. The move follows a broader drop in whale holdings of roughly 220,000 BTC during 2025, a change that has analysts and traders parsing what comes next.
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Price action has been steady. Bitcoin has been moving inside a tight range around $88,000 to $92,000 while the market seeks direction.
Whale Moves And Historical Patterns
Based on reports, some traders see this as a classic unwind pattern that precedes price gains. In early 2025, a similar fall in long positions coincided with Bitcoin slipping under $74k then staging a sharp rebound.
That past recovery climbed to about $112k in 43 days after positions were flushed. MartyParty, a commentator on X, pointed to that episode when noting Bitfinex whales were “aggressively closing $BTC longs,” a behavior that has in the past been followed by big swings.
Bitfinex whales are aggressively closing $BTC longs, a signal that historically precedes massive volatility. Last time this “unwind” happened in early 2025, Bitcoin was stalling at $74k.
This precedes the Wyckoff Spring. See charts below.
Reports have disclosed that on-chain tracker CryptoQuant finds overall whale holdings fell by over 200,000 BTC across the year, while smaller investors have increased exposure. This shift is being read by some as a sign that ownership is broadening.
If more participants hold coins, price moves can be supported by a wider base of buyers. That does not guarantee higher prices, but it does change the way risk spreads through the market.
Traders are watching a near-term ceiling around $94,000 that has capped several rallies. Bitcoin currently sits near $91.5k. A sustained break above that $94,000 level with volume would be a stronger confirmation for bulls. On the flip side, a failure to move higher could see the range widen to the downside, especially if funding costs rise or if liquidations pick up.
Fractal Targets And Caution
Some analysts are using past patterns to project targets. Based on reports, one scenario maps a repeat of the spring-and-rally sequence, aiming at $135k or more if history repeats closely enough.
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That view depends on similar market conditions lining up, which is not certain. Whales are not a single, unified actor; different groups can close positions for different reasons, and some trades are used as hedges rather than bets on price direction.
Volume, funding rates, and net positioning on major derivatives platforms will matter. A clean breakout above $94,000 with rising spot demand would support the bullish case.
Conversely, rising selling pressure at that level could keep Bitcoin confined to the $88,000–$92,000 band until a new catalyst appears. The current action looks like a setup in progress — one that could lead to sharp moves once traders decide on direction.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Semilore Faleti is a cryptocurrency writer specialized in the field of journalism and content creation. While he started out writing on several subjects, Semilore soon found a knack for cracking down on the complexities and intricacies in the intriguing world of blockchains and cryptocurrency.
Semilore is drawn to the efficiency of digital assets in terms of storing, and transferring value. He is a staunch advocate for the adoption of cryptocurrency as he believes it can improve the digitalization and transparency of the existing financial systems.
In two years of active crypto writing, Semilore has covered multiple aspects of the digital asset space including blockchains, decentralized finance (DeFi), staking, non-fungible tokens (NFT), regulations and network upgrades among others.
In his early years, Semilore honed his skills as a content writer, curating educational articles that catered to a wide audience. His pieces were particularly valuable for individuals new to the crypto space, offering insightful explanations that demystified the world of digital currencies.
Semilore also curated pieces for veteran crypto users ensuring they were up to date with the latest blockchains, decentralized applications and network updates. This foundation in educational writing has continued to inform his work, ensuring that his current work remains accessible, accurate and informative.
Currently at NewsBTC, Semilore is dedicated to reporting the latest news on cryptocurrency price action, on-chain developments and whale activity. He also covers the latest token analysis and price predictions by top market experts thus providing readers with potentially insightful and actionable information.
Through his meticulous research and engaging writing style, Semilore strives to establish himself as a trusted source in the crypto journalism field to inform and educate his audience on the latest trends and developments in the rapidly evolving world of digital assets.
Outside his work, Semilore possesses other passions like all individuals. He is a big music fan with an interest in almost every genre. He can be described as a “music nomad” always ready to listen to new artists and explore new trends.
Semilore Faleti is also a strong advocate for social justice, preaching fairness, inclusivity, and equity. He actively promotes the engagement of issues centred around systemic inequalities and all forms of discrimination.
He also promotes political participation by all persons at all levels. He believes active contribution to governmental systems and policies is the fastest and most effective way to bring about permanent positive change in any society.
In conclusion, Semilore Faleti exemplifies the convergence of expertise, passion, and advocacy in the world of crypto journalism. He is a rare individual whose work in documenting the evolution of cryptocurrency will remain relevant for years to come.
His dedication to demystifying digital assets and advocating for their adoption, combined with his commitment to social justice and political engagement, positions him as a dynamic and influential voice in the industry.
Whether through his meticulous reporting at NewsBTC or his fervent promotion of fairness and equity, Semilore continues to inform, educate, and inspire his audience, striving for a more transparent and inclusive financial future.
Analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted how the Bitcoin Funding Rates have increased across the various exchanges, but still not to a high degree.
Bitcoin Perps Funding Rates Have Surged
In a new post on X, Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Funding Rates for the major perpetual futures markets. The “Funding Rate” is an indicator that measures the amount of periodic fees that traders on the futures market are exchanging between each other on a given derivatives platform.
When the value of this metric is positive, it means the long holders are paying a premium to the shorts in order to hold onto their position. Such a trend implies a bullish mentality is dominant in the market.
On the other hand, the indicator being below the zero mark suggests the shorts outweigh the longs and a bearish sentiment is shared by the majority of traders on the exchange.
Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in the 7-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Funding Rate for major exchanges over the last couple of years:
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Funding Rate has witnessed an increase across these platforms recently, indicating that investors have been setting up fresh bullish positions.
The mean Funding Rate for these exchanges dropped to the 0% mark back in November as the cryptocurrency’s price went through a crash. As the asset settled into its consolidation phase, investors gradually set up longs, culminating in the indicator recovering to 0.005%.
In the last 24 hours, however, the mean Funding Rate has retraced back to 0.003%, implying some investors have closed up their long positions after the latest recovery rally and/or others have set up shorts to bet against the bullish price action.
In the past, major rallies have tended to occur alongside notable positive Funding Rates on the different exchanges. According to Glassnode, the threshold has generally lied at 0.001%. Since the mean Funding Rate is still below this level, the analytics firm has noted, “current conditions remain supportive but not yet decisive.”
BTC Broke Above $94,000 Before Retracing Down
Bitcoin has seen the renewal of bullish momentum recently, with its price recovering as high as $94,700, but the past day has seen a setback for the digital asset as it’s now back at $92,100.
Other cryptocurrencies have also been volatile to varying degrees in the past day, which has resulted in liquidations of over $500 million on the derivatives exchanges, as data from CoinGlass shows. Out of these $503 million in liquidations, about $146 million of the positions involved were Bitcoin-related ones.
Bitcoin (BTC) has opened 2026 with renewed momentum, extending a recovery that began in the final days of December and pushing prices back above key psychological levels.
After ending 2025 with a modest decline that challenged expectations around the traditional four-year cycle, the largest asset has reclaimed the $90,000 zone and is trading above $92,000. The move reflects a mix of technical breakouts, steady institutional inflows, and easing selling pressure, even with long-term skepticisms.
BTC's price records moderate gains on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview
Technical Structure Points to Higher Levels
On the daily chart, Bitcoin (BTC) has been forming a rounded base that resembles the early stages of a cup-and-handle pattern, a structure often associated with trend continuation.
Recent candles have closed higher, though long upper wicks suggest some resistance near current levels. Analysts note that maintaining a sustained hold above the $89,500–$90,000 range is crucial to sustaining the bullish setup.
A confirmed break above the $94,700 area could validate the pattern and open the door to a measured move toward the $100,000–$104,000 zone, implying roughly 10–12% upside from recent prices.
Shorter-term indicators also show improving momentum, with higher lows forming on lower time frames and moving averages beginning to turn upward. However, elevated leverage on derivatives platforms means that pullbacks could still trigger sharp liquidations if support levels are breached.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows and On-Chain Data Support the Move
Beyond charts, underlying market data points to reduced distribution. Exchange inflows have dropped sharply since the end of December, signaling lower immediate selling pressure. On-chain metrics show both short-term and long-term holders moving fewer coins, suggesting a preference to hold rather than sell into strength.
Institutional demand has also re-emerged through spot Bitcoin ETFs. Early January saw more than $600 million in net inflows in a single session, reinforcing the view that larger investors continue to treat Bitcoin as a portfolio allocation rather than a short-term trade.
This steady accumulation has helped Bitcoin absorb macro-driven volatility, including recent geopolitical headlines that briefly lifted broader risk assets.
Skepticism Remains as Market Eyes 2026 Outlook
Not everyone is convinced the recovery will last. Economist Peter Schiff has reiterated his long-standing view that Bitcoin’s rally is unsustainable, arguing that recent gains in precious metals offer a stronger long-term case.
Still, Bitcoin remains roughly 26% below its all-time high, leaving room for further debate over valuation and direction. Consequently, the market appears to be focused on whether Bitcoin can build on its early 2026 recovery.
Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
Crypto phishing losses plunged in 2025, but experts warn the threat has only changed shape rather than disappeared. Reports show a sharp fall in money stolen by wallet-draining scams, even as attackers tested new tricks tied to recent protocol changes.
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Scam Sniffer Data Shows Drop
According to Scam Sniffer’s 2025 analysis, wallet drainer phishing losses fell to about $83.85 million — an 83% decline from roughly $494 million in 2024.
The number of affected wallets dropped to around 106,000, a fall of about 68% year-on-year. These figures come from the security platform’s annual study and were picked up by major crypto outlets.
Attackers Shift, Not Stop
Only 11 incidents topped $1 million in 2025, down from 30 the prior year, signaling fewer headline grabs but a rise in smaller hits. The largest single theft recorded last year was roughly $6.5 million, tied to a malicious Permit signature attack.
Average losses per victim fell to roughly $790, which suggests attackers moved toward more frequent, lower-value strikes.
Losses followed market activity. The third quarter logged the highest damage at about $31 million, when Ethereum’s rally brought more users and approvals onchain.
Monthly peaks included August, which posted about $12.17 million, while December was the quietest with roughly $2 million. That pattern shows fraudsters target busy trading windows.
Reports highlighted Permit and Permit2 signature abuses as a major driver of big losses, accounting for a large share of multi-million cases.
Scam Sniffer also flagged EIP-7702 batch signature techniques that were used in a few complex attacks after network upgrades. Security teams say these methods exploit user approval flows rather than raw smart-contract bugs.
Total crypto market cap currently at $3.08 trillion. Chart: TradingView
Why The Drop Happened
Analysts attribute much of the improvement to better wallet warnings, wider use of approval revocation tools, and more active tracking by onchain monitors.
Some defenders also point to reduced market froth in parts of the year, which lowered the pool of high-value targets. Still, multiple outlets stress that reduced totals do not equal safety.
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Based on reports, phishing will likely remain cyclical: losses could spike again during big rallies or when new signing features are introduced.
Security firms urge users to check approvals, avoid blind signing, and use wallet tools that flag risky requests. Regulators and exchanges are watching the trend, but responsibility for many attacks still falls to individual users and wallet software.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
According to market observers, the US strikes on Venezuela early Saturday are not expected to push Bitcoin into a large sell-off. The strikes took place at around 6 a.m. UTC and lasted for about 30 minutes, reports show.
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Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, wrote on X that he does not expect “a widespread correction” tied to the attack, arguing the event was planned and has already passed market participants. Other analysts shared a similar view, saying dramatic moves usually come when traders expect worse things ahead.
Bitcoin: Market Moves And Liquidations
Based on reports, Bitcoin held firm above the $90,000 mark. CoinGecko data showed a rise of 1.50%, putting the token at $91,320 at the time of publication.
I don’t think we’ll see a widespread correction based on the attack in Venezuela on #Bitcoin.
It’s a planned and coordinated attack on Maduro, and is already past us.
The likelihood of more negativity on the markets from that single event are relatively slim.
CoinGlass figures indicate about $60 million in Bitcoin positions were liquidated over the prior 24 hours, with roughly $55 million of that coming from short bets. That kind of forced selling can amp up volatility for a short period. Still, the broader pattern this time looked muted.
Historical Drops Have Happened Fast
There have been episodes when conflict pushed prices down quickly. In June 2025, for example, Bitcoin fell nearly 3%, sliding from $106,000 to $103,000 inside roughly 90 minutes after explosions in Tehran.
Bitcoin is now trading at $91,563. Chart: TradingView
Traders point out that sudden moves often follow when markets fear ongoing escalation. Here, many market watchers see less chance of follow-up actions that would deepen panic.
Federal Debt And Genesis Day In The Middle Of Market Noise
Based on reports, the US national debt passed $38 trillion on Saturday, with the US National Debt Clock placing it near $38.5 at the time. That milestone came as Bitcoin fans marked “Genesis Day,” the anniversary of the first block mined by Satoshi Nakamoto.
Paolo Ardoino, CEO of stablecoin issuer Tether, posted a celebratory message, while Sam Callahan, director of strategy and research at BTC treasury firm OranjeBTC, echoed the sentiment.
For many in the community, the headline embedded in the Genesis Block remains a symbol of a monetary system capped in supply and not subject to the same printing pressures as fiat.
Yeah generally the market really nukes when we expect things to get worse afterwards which doesn’t seem to be the case. Could see this actually bring some green to the market as people take this as a sign of strength tho
Reports have shown some in the crypto space treated events like the strike and the rising US debt as separate but related stories. A few traders said the strike could bring “green” to markets as investors interpret decisive action as a sign of control, an outlook voiced by analyst Tyler Hill.
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Meanwhile, others emphasized that the immediate market response has been calm rather than panicked. Social posts and onchain flows were watched closely by hedge funds and retail traders alike.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
With 2025 now closed, the crypto market is beginning 2026 with attempts to recover from one of its most challenging years. After a tumultuous period, total market capitalization has surged back above $3 trillion. However, many investors are left wondering what the new year has in store for digital assets.
Institutions Forecast Bullish Crypto Prices For 2026
According to a recent report by analysts at Bull Theory, the past year proved to be robust for traditional markets, particularly for metals, while cryptocurrencies fell short of expectations. Silver surged by 160%, and gold followed suit with a 66% increase.
In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) wrapped up 2025 down approximately 5%, despite several positive indicators, such as consistent purchasing by Strategy, strong inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and growing institutional interest.
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Yet, when one asset class lags significantly while liquidity remains abundant, historical trends show that the gap typically narrows. In terms of specific projections, various major institutions and prominent investors have offered their forecasts for both Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH).
Standard Chartered targets Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by the end of 2026, and JPMorgan projects a price of $170,000. Meanwhile, Citi’s base case stands around $143,000, with a more aggressive bull case suggesting a potential rise to $189,000.
Cathie Wood of ARK Invest envisions a long-term scenario where Bitcoin could hit $500,000, contingent on widespread institutional adoption. Tom Lee from Fundstrat anticipates Ethereum will trade between $7,000 and $9,000 by early 2026, fueled by the tokenization of real-world assets.
New Regulations And Economic Optimism
The analysts further highlighted that, unlike previous years, this cycle looks distinct in several key aspects. For one, crypto is no longer encumbered by operating within a legal gray area.
New regulatory frameworks, particularly in the US, are poised to offer clearer guidelines, reducing uncertainty and facilitating easier access for institutional investors.
The anticipated changes aim for simplified regulations that could enhance market structure while broadening institutional participation beyond just Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Moreover, several factors suggest that a sharp movement in the crypto markets could be on the horizon. The end of quantitative tightening on December 1, 2025, coupled with a growing GDP, signals a conducive environment for crypto.
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With inflation stabilized below 3% and unemployment at 4.6%, there are indications that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may adopt a more dovish stance, especially with a new Fed Chair expected to take office in May 2026.
Overall, as the new year begins, the crypto market finds itself in a position of underperformance rather than excess. This contrasting state often results in rapid repricings as gaps are closed in response to liquidity alignment.
As a result, Bull Theory analysts believe that 2026 could very well be the year when these disparities start to correct, leading to a potentially bullish environment for cryptocurrencies.
The daily chart shows the total crypto market cap recovery above the $3 trillion mark. Source: TOTAL on TradingView.com
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Stock in Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin treasury company Strategy was up 1.22% in early trading today, giving the company a brief period of relief. The stock has declined 66% since its high last July, and this morning its “mNAV”—a technical gauge of whether the company is worth more or less than the Bitcoin it holds—was at 1.02.
If that gauge falls below 1, then technically the company is worth less than the Bitcoin it owns. At that point, the stock would be sold off by many investors because there is no point in owning a stock whose value is based on Bitcoin if the stock is worth less than the Bitcoin.
The stock has been sitting above this danger zone since November.
Already, the market cap of the company is worth less than its Bitcoin. Its market cap was $47 billion today; the Bitcoin held by the company is worth just under $60 billion. That on its own is a perilous position. But if the company’s mNAV (“market-to-net asset value”) falls below 1 then the stock potentially enters a new world of pain. mNAV is a measure of the company’s total market cap plus its debt, minus its cash, divided by its total Bitcoin reserve. If that value is worth less than 1 then the case for owning Strategy stock becomes harder to argue.
Fortune contacted the company for comment.
Saylor, as usual, has been tweeting bullishly about MSTR shares, including this chart showing that “open interest” (investor positions that have not been closed out) are the equivalent of 87% of the company’s market value. The implication is that the stock is highly traded (although many of those positions are undoubtedly short bets against the company). He also posted an AI-generated picture of him taming a polar bear.
Below the level of mNAV at 1 lies another dangerous threshold for Strategy: the average price at which Strategy has historically accumulated Bitcoin. Over the years, that price was about $74,000 per coin. Currently, Bitcoin trades at $89.6K. If the price were to fall below $74K it would imply that Strategy’s Bitcoin stash was worth less than what Saylor has paid for it.
Strategy fans would argue that might be a time to buy—if the stock was worth less than its Bitcoin then the price per share might rise to meet the price of Bitcoin; it might rise even more if Bitcoin resumed its march higher.
But that, again, would be a sore test for traders who are not true believers. Why hold a stock that is worth less than the underlying asset it represents?
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According to CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno, Bitcoin may already be two months into a bear market after several of his indicators flipped to bearish in early November.
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Moreno pointed to the price sliding below its one-year moving average as the clearest technical confirmation, and he used that signal to argue a lower trading range may be on the path ahead.
Bitcoin Technical Signals, Market Mood
Moreno said a likely bottom could sit near the realized price, which he put in the $56,000–$60,000 band. That would mean a drawdown of roughly 55% from Bitcoin’s all-time high — a drop that is large but smaller than past crashes that hit 70% or 80%.
Market momentum is muted. Bitcoin began 2025 near $93,000, peaked at about $126,050 in October, and ended the year below where it started, according to CoinGecko. Trading hovered around $88,920 as of Friday, based on available data.
Derivatives Show Caution Ahead Of Expiry
Bitcoin was holding the $87,000–$89,000 range as $1.85 billion in options approached expiry. Reports show derivatives volume fell 39% while open interest remained flat, a mix that points to hesitation rather than aggressive positioning by traders.
Technical measures show price compression near support, and traders are watching expiry closely because a larger move could follow when those contracts settle. Volatility has been lower than in some previous selloffs, and that has left price action tighter than many expected.
Institutional Accumulation And The Missing Shock
Moreno and others note the environment feels structurally different. Large institutional players and regulated ETFs have been buying more regularly, and those flows are not known to be selling in panic.
That steady demand has helped prevent the kind of cascading failures seen in 2022, when Terra, Celsius and FTX collapsed and amplified losses across the market. Because those big shocks did not occur this time, the drawdown looks more controlled, even if prices are moving down.
Some analysts still predict 2026 could bring fresh highs, citing expected US rate cuts and a friendlier policy stance in Washington. At the same time, observers are watching whether Bitcoin’s tighter link to US stocks holds as macro and regulatory decisions land.
If the correlation weakens, crypto may chart its own course. If it stays strong, the path for Bitcoin could be shaped largely by broader market moves rather than crypto-specific flows.
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What Traders Will Watch
Based on reports and Moreno’s view, the key items to monitor are the one-year moving average, realized price levels near $56,000–$60,000, the outcome of options expiries, and whether institutional buyers continue steady purchases.
Price action has been calmer than some past crises, but that calm has masked real downside risk. Analysts and traders are split; some expect a return to growth next year, while others are preparing for lower prices before any sustained recovery.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin’s recent inability to escape a tight trading range may have less to do with spot Bitcoin ETF flows than many headlines suggest, and more to do with the derivatives complex still doing most of the heavy lifting, even as futures activity cools.
That’s the core argument from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc), who said Bitcoin futures volumes have been “cut in half since November 22,” dropping from $123 billion in daily volume to $63 billion.
Futures, Not ETFs, Are Holding Bitcoin In Place
The slowdown, he added, “partly explains the low volatility observed on BTC in recent weeks.” But the bigger point is relative scale: at $63 billion per day, futures still represent “nearly 20 times the volume of spot Bitcoin ETFs ($3.4B) and about 10 times spot market volumes ($6B),” according to the analyst.
Comparison of aggregate volume metrics | Source: X @Darkfost_Coc
In other words, even if ETF outflows are real and visible, they may not be the dominant marginal force setting the tone. “Many continue to point to ETFs, which have experienced significant outflows in recent weeks,” Darkfost wrote. “While these outflows do contribute to selling pressure, futures markets clearly remain the dominant force in overall volumes.”
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Darkfost pointed to net taker volume, a derivatives metric used to infer whether aggressive buying or selling is dominating, as a cleaner read on why price has struggled to trend. He framed it in conditional terms based on prior market behavior: “Each time net taker volume has turned negative, Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase. When this indicator moves into negative territory, selling volume dominates.”
In his telling, the market has been living with that bias for months. Since July, net taker volume has “generally remained negative,” he said, with one notable interruption: “A noticeable slowdown occurred in early October, allowing Bitcoin to set a new all time high, but selling pressure quickly regained control. Today, selling volumes continue to dominate and have kept Bitcoin trapped in a range for about a month.”
There is, however, a tentative improvement in the same dataset. Darkfost said futures-driven selling pressure has declined since early November, with net taker volume improving from around -$489 million to -$93 million. He described that as “a positive signal,” but not yet enough to change the regime. “Liquidity remains weak,” he wrote, adding that ETF and spot volumes are “still too limited to allow BTC to break out of its current consolidation phase.”
Bitcoin Net Taker Volume | Source: X @Darkfost_Coc
Demand Is Key
In a separate X post, CryptoQuant’s Head of Research Julio Moreno added a broader framing that shifts attention away from chart-based cycle narratives and toward demand dynamics. “Most are focusing on price performance to define a cycle, when it is demand what they should be looking to,” Moreno wrote. “Bitcoin demand is contracting on monthly terms and slowing down significantly on an annual basis (and about to get into negative territory).”
Bitcoin apparent demand growth | Source: X @jjcmoreno
Alongside the futures-driven explanation for Bitcoin’s stall, the selling pressure from long-term holders (LTHs) emerged in recent weeks as the main driver for Bitcoin lagging performance against the stock market and gold. As reported yesterday, the long-term holder selling appeared to have stopped, according to multiple on-chain commentators, with around 10,700 BTC transitioning into long term held coins.
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In his latest post, leading Glassnode analyst CryptoVizArt argued the change is more about tempo than direction. “LTHs didn’t stop selling,” the analyst wrote, claiming LTHs “are still spending ~7.3k BTC/day (7D SMA) and still realizing <$200M/day in profit. What changed is the rate, not the behavior. This is a cooldown after months of heavy distribution, not a flip to pure accumulation.”
Bitcoin Realize Price by Age | Source: X @CryptoVizArt
Darkfost didn’t dispute that LTHs can be persistent sellers, but he emphasized a different lens. “LTHs never really stop selling in reality, but when we look at supply change, it gives a different picture,” he wrote. “It appears that their distribution has come to an end for now, meaning the amount of BTC maturing and transitioning into LTH status equals the BTC being sold by LTHs (STH buying).”
According to Farside Investors data, US investors put close to $32 billion into US crypto exchange-traded funds in 2025 even as markets lost steam late in the year.
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Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew the biggest share, with $21.4 billion in net inflows. That is smaller than the $35 billion that poured into Bitcoin ETFs in 2024.
Blackrock Dominates Flows
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, IBIT, accounted for most of the activity. Reports show IBIT took in about $24.7 billion. That makes its inflows roughly five times larger than the nearest rival, Fidelity’s FBTC.
Market watchers noted IBIT ranked near the top among all ETF flows, placing behind only a few broad index funds and a big treasury bond fund.
If IBIT’s number is removed, the wider spot Bitcoin ETF group actually finished the year with about $3 billion in combined outflows.
Grayscale’s Bitcoin product lost nearly $4 billion on the year. Bitcoin’s price was lower than at the start of 2025; it began the year around $93,500.
Ethereum Interest Strong But Cooling
Based on reports, interest in Ethereum ETFs was real, but the momentum looks uneven. BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust, ETHA, sits at nearly $12.6 billion in inflows. Fidelity’s FETH follows at $2.6 billion, while Grayscale’s Ethereum Mini Trust ETF holds about $1.5 billion.
Still, public on-chain data showed little renewed demand for spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs in the last month of the year, suggesting flows may slow into 2026.
Ether ETFs benefited from being new and giving investors a regulated way to own ETH, but recent days have seen quieter buying.
BTCUSD currently trading at $87,688. Chart: TradingView
Spot Ether ETFs, which only became widely tradable after their July 2024 launch, gathered $9.6 billion in their first full year. Spot Solana ETFs, launched in late October, added $765 million through year end.
Altcoin ETFs Show Curiosity, Not Frenzy
Litecoin and XRP ETFs also began trading in the latter half of the year, giving investors more choices for regulated altcoin exposure.
The sums are small compared with Bitcoin and Ether. Solana’s $765 million is an example of early interest that has not yet turned into a large, steady stream of assets. These products are being tested by the market.
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Global Flows Tell A Different Story
Industry trackers reported that crypto ETFs listed worldwide experienced $2.95 billion in net outflows in November, and there was about $179 billion invested in crypto ETFs globally at the end of that month.
Regulators and exchanges moved faster this year under new SEC leadership that was more open to approvals, which in turn helped institutional adoption in the US.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin continues to struggle below the $90,000 mark, reflecting a market that has failed to recover bullish momentum after weeks of consolidation. Repeated attempts to reclaim higher levels have stalled, reinforcing growing skepticism among analysts who now openly discuss the risk of a broader bear market extending into 2026. Sentiment remains fragile, dominated by caution and reduced risk appetite, as traders wait for clearer confirmation of the next directional move.
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Still, not everyone is convinced the bullish cycle is over. Some investors argue that Bitcoin is entering a transitional phase rather than a full trend reversal. According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler, the current setup in Bitcoin’s “Supply in Profit” metric offers important context.
Adler highlights that Supply in Profit has fallen sharply from October peaks above 19 million BTC to roughly 13.5 million BTC following the correction from all-time highs. This decline pushed the short-term 30-day moving average well below the 90-day average, creating a gap of around 1.75 million BTC.
Bitcoin Supply in Profit Trend | Source: CryptoQuant
While a similar configuration appeared in 2022 before an extended bearish period, Adler notes a key difference this time: the 365-day moving average remains historically elevated. Importantly, the 30-day average appears to have formed a local bottom in mid-December and is beginning to stabilize.
Adler argues that if Bitcoin can hold current price levels or higher, this stabilization could mark the early groundwork for a renewed bullish phase later in 2026.
Supply in Profit Signals a Critical Inflection Window
Axel Adler also shared a forward-looking forecast chart tracking the convergence between the 30-day and 90-day moving averages of Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit metric, offering a potential roadmap for the next structural shift. The model extrapolates current rates of change to estimate when a bullish configuration—defined by SMA 30 crossing above SMA 90—could emerge.
Forecast chart of SMA 30 and SMA 90 Supply in Profit convergence | Source: Axel Adler
According to Adler’s analysis, the gap between these two moving averages is currently narrowing at a pace of roughly 28,000 BTC per day. Importantly, this convergence is not being driven by a sharp recovery in Supply in Profit, but by a mechanical decline in the SMA 90.
As peak October values, when Supply in Profit reached 19–20 million BTC, roll out of the 90-day calculation window, downward pressure on the longer average creates a temporary “tailwind” for convergence. This effect is expected to persist through late January.
If current conditions hold, Adler projects a potential bullish cross forming between late February and early March. However, the forecast remains highly price-sensitive. Supply elasticity to price is estimated at 1.3x, meaning a 10% price decline could trigger a 13% drop in Supply in Profit.
The $70,000 level is critical according to the forecast. Below it, SMA 30 would likely fall faster than SMA 90, invalidating the convergence thesis and reopening a 2022-style prolonged recovery scenario.
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Bitcoin Price Struggles Below Key Resistance
Bitcoin continues to trade below the $90,000 threshold, reflecting a market that remains structurally weak despite short-term stabilization. The chart shows BTC consolidating after a sharp breakdown from the $100,000–$105,000 region, a move that decisively flipped prior support into resistance. This rejection marked a clear loss of bullish control and initiated a deeper corrective phase.
Price now compresses below the downward-sloping 50-day and 100-day moving averages.. This configuration reinforces the prevailing bearish trend and suggests that upside attempts are likely to face supply pressure. The 200-day moving average, currently well above spot price, highlights how far BTC has drifted from its longer-term trend equilibrium.
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Momentum has cooled notably since the November sell-off. While selling intensity has eased, the absence of strong bullish volume indicates that buyers remain cautious. The recent price action resembles a consolidation range rather than a reversal, with BTC oscillating between roughly $85,000 and $90,000. This behavior often reflects indecision rather than accumulation.
For now, $90,000 remains the critical level bulls must reclaim to shift sentiment meaningfully. Failure to do so keeps downside risks in play, with $85,000 acting as near-term support. Until price regains key moving averages, the broader structure favors continued range-bound or corrective price action.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Commentators challenged the logic of treating identical market mechanics as bullish for one asset and fatal for another.
Long-time Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff is facing intense pushback for applying contradictory logic to recent price drops in silver and Bitcoin.
After silver fell 14% on December 29, Schiff called it a chance to buy, but he labeled Bitcoin’s 30% retreat from its peak as proof it is a scam.
A Tale of Two Corrections
The debate ignited from a post Schiff made yesterday, where he noted silver’s sharp fall from $84 to $72, calling the resulting drop in the metal’s stocks an improved buying opportunity.
At the same time, he criticized business intelligence firm Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation plan, claiming its average purchase price of $75,000 had yielded only a 16% gain over five years, a return he called poor.
The reaction was swift. Commentator Shanaka Anslem Perera directly challenged Schiff, pointing out that both assets experienced corrections driven by the same market forces: margin hikes, forced liquidations, and leveraged speculators being wiped out.
“I need you to explain the intellectual framework where identical market mechanics prove silver is undervalued but prove Bitcoin is worthless,” Perera wrote.
He provided a lengthy list of Schiff’s past Bitcoin predictions, which he claims were incorrect, and suggested the gold bug’s anti-BTC stance is a marketing strategy for his precious metals business, noting his company accepts BTC and he profits from engagement on the topic.
Other experts also questioned Schiff’s financial analysis regarding Strategy, with on-chain analyst Willy Woo calling it “scam maths” for not accounting for the time basis of the investments. The market watcher also argued that the majority of the $75,000 cost basis came from purchases within the last two years, not five.
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The Broader Precious Metals vs. Crypto War
This clash is the latest in a years-long rivalry. Schiff has consistently positioned gold and silver as superior, tangible stores of value, especially during economic uncertainty. For example, earlier in the month, he warned that Bitcoin could lose value before the U.S. dollar in a crisis.
Furthermore, on December 22, as gold broke above $4,400, he ran a poll asking whether the metal would reach $5,000 or Bitcoin would crash to $50,000 first, a vote where less than 20% of participants picked the Bitcoin crash scenario.
Meanwhile, a recent analysis noted that while silver and gold have had spectacular years with gains of 172% and 75%, respectively, in 2025, Bitcoin is set to end the year with a modest loss. This decline has pushed the correlation between Bitcoin and the metals to multi-year lows.
However, many in crypto remain optimistic, with some analysts suggesting that if historical cycles repeat, the flagship cryptocurrency could see major gains following the metals rallies.
That being said, the community remains divided on the fundamental value debate. Some, like commentator Daniel Tschinkel, have shown support for the enduring stability of precious metals, while others, like Fred Krueger, believe in Bitcoin’s long-term superiority.
For now, Schiff’s latest comments have less ignited a discussion about market mechanics and more one about consistent principles, putting his own bias under the microscope.
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