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Tag: Bitcoin/USD Coin Metrics

  • Cryptocurrencies slide as worries about FTX fester in latest crypto liquidity scare

    Cryptocurrencies slide as worries about FTX fester in latest crypto liquidity scare

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    The logo of the cryptocurrency Terra Luna is seen on the screen of a computer in an office.

    Silas Stein/picture alliance via Getty Images

    The cryptocurrency market fell on Tuesday amid rumors of insolvency at crypto exchange FTX and worries about the financial conditions of its sister company Alameda Research.

    Bitcoin and ether were lower by 6% and 8% respectively, according to Coin Metrics.

    Crypto assets tied to Alameda, the trading company also owned by billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, were suffering steeper losses. FTX Token (FTT), the native token of the FTX trading platform, has fallen 23% in the past 24 hours. The token tied to Ethereum competitor Solana, of which Alameda is a big backer, has lost 12%.

    In crypto equities, Coinbase fell 12.5%, while Robinhood, in which SBF has a 7.6% stake, fell 9%. Crypto banks like Silvergate and Signature and bitcoin miners like Hut 8 and Riot Blockchain were down double digit percentages.

    “There are a lot of mirrors to the Celsius and Three Arrows crisis that happened months ago and what you’re seeing is investors having deja vu and fear leaking into the markets,” said Conor Ryder, research analyst at Kaiko.

    On Tuesday FTX halted withdrawals from its platform, after spooked investors attempted to pull their funds en masse. Investor confidence has been shaken after Binance founder Changpeng Zhao tweeted over the weekend that the company would sell its holdings of FTT. Binance is the largest crypto exchange in the world by trading volume and was an early backer of FTX.

    Zhao said in his tweet that Binance has about $2.1 billion worth of FTT and BUSD, the fiat-backed stablecoin issued by Binance and Paxos, combined.

    “Due to recent revelations that have came to light, we have decided to liquidate any remaining FTT on our books,” he said.

    Those revelations refer to rumors about the solvency of FTX, the second-biggest crypto exchange in the world by trading volume. A report last week on the state of Alameda’s finances showed a large portion of its balance sheet is concentrated in FTT and its various activities leveraged using FTT as collateral. Alameda has disputed that claim, saying FTT represents only part of its total balance sheet.

    “The Alameda hedge fund is tied to FTX through a ton of FTT tokens and the rumors started that if they are using all of these FTT tokens as collateral… there are two issues,” said Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at Arca. “If the price of FTT goes way down then Alameda could face margin calls and all kinds of pressure; two is if FTX is the lender to Alameda then everyone’s going to be in trouble.”

    “What could have been just an isolated issue at Alameda became a bank run,” he added. “Everybody started to pull their assets out of FTX and there’s this fear that FTX would be insolvent.”

    ‘Another black eye for trust’

    Ryder said he has confidence that FTX and its customers “will be fine” but that the panic is understandable. Bankman-Fried, also known as SBF, has said little on the matter to quell fears.

    The problem is the opaque nature and the lack of transparency about FTX reserves, Alameda’s reserves, the links between the two – no one really knows how to intertwined the two are,” he said. “From that side of things, it mirrors Celsius issues a lot in that we have no transparency of funds, and FTX hasn’t come out and reassured investors so that’s what we’re seeing now leak into markets.”

    It’s a good argument for more regulation of centralized entities, Ryder added, saying it’s imperative for all centralized entities – be it hedge funds like Three Arrows Capital or Alameda Research or centralized exchanges like FTX and Binance that aren’t publicly listed – to maintain a proof of reserves for the sake of investor protection.

    Dorman echoed Ryder’s sentiment, saying that while it may be at worst a short-term liquidity issue, it’s “another black eye for trust.”

    “Do they put [the reserves] in a bank account? Do they use them to lend out?” Dorman said. “This is where the lack of transparency comes in: something that probably isn’t a problem and shouldn’t be a problem becomes a short-term liquidity problem if FTX can’t immediately process all withdrawals.”

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  • Bitcoin’s trading has become ‘boring’ — but that’s not necessarily a bad thing

    Bitcoin’s trading has become ‘boring’ — but that’s not necessarily a bad thing

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    Representations of cryptocurrency Bitcoin are seen in this illustration, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

    Dado Ruvic | Reuters

    Bitcoin’s lack of volatility lately isn’t a bad thing and could actually point to signs of a “bottoming out” in prices, analysts and investors told CNBC.

    Digital currencies have fallen sharply since a scorching run in 2021 which saw bitcoin climb as high as $68,990. But for the past few months, bitcoin’s price has bounced stubbornly around $20,000 in a sign that volatility in the market has settled.

    Last week, the cryptocurrency’s 20-day rolling volatility fell below that of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes for the first time since 2020, according to data from crypto research firm Kaiko.

    Stocks and cryptocurrencies are both down sharply this year as interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and a strengthening dollar weighed on the sector.

    Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks has increased over time as more institutional investors have invested in crypto.

    But bitcoin’s price has stabilized recently. And for some investors, that easing of volatility is a good sign.

    “Bitcoin has essentially been range bound between 18-25K for 4 months now, which indicates consolidation and a potential bottoming out pattern, given we are seeing the Dollar index top out as well,” Vijay Ayyar, head of international at crypto exchange Luno, told CNBC in emailed comments.”

    “In previous cases such as in 2015, we’ve seen BTC bottom when DXY has topped, so we could be seeing a very similar pattern play out here.”

    Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto lender Nexo, said bitcoin’s price stability was “a strong sign that the digital assets market has matured and is becoming less fragmented.”

    An end to crypto winter?

    Cryptocurrencies have suffered a brutal comedown this year, losing $2 trillion in value since the height of the 2021 rally. Bitcoin, the world’s biggest digital coin, is off around 70% from its November peak.

    The current so-called “crypto winter” is largely the result of aggressive tightening from the Fed, which has been hiking interest rates in an effort to tame rocketing inflation. Large crypto investors with highly leveraged bets like Three Arrows Capital were floored by the pressure on prices, further accelerating the market’s drop.

    However, some investors think the ice may now be beginning to thaw.

    There are signs of an “accumulation phase,” according to Ayyar, when institutional investors are more willing to place bets on bitcoin given the lull in prices.

    “Bitcoin being stuck in such a range does make it boring, but this is also when retail loses interest and smart money starts to accumulate,” Ayyar said.

    Matteo Dante Perruccio, president of international at digital asset management firm Wave Financial, said he’s seen a “counterintuitive increase in demand of traditional institutional investors in crypto during what is a time where generally you would see interest fall off in the traditional markets.”

    Financial institutions have continued taking steps into crypto despite the fall in prices and waning interest from retail investors.

    Mastercard announced a service that allows banks to offer crypto trading, having previously launched a new blockchain security tool for card issuers. Visa, meanwhile, teamed up with crypto exchange FTX to offer debit cards linked to users’ trading accounts.

    Goldman Sachs suggested we may be close to the end of a “particularly bearish” period in the latest cycle of crypto movements. In a note released Thursday, analysts at the bank said there were parallels with bitcoin’s trading in Nov. 2018, when prices steadied for a while before rising steadily.

    Read more about tech and crypto from CNBC Pro

    “Low volatility [in Nov. 2018] was following a large bitcoin bear market,” Goldman’s analysts wrote, adding that “crypto QT” (quantitative tightening) occurred as investors poured out of stablecoins like tether, reducing liquidity. The circulating supply of USD Coin — a stablecoin that’s pegged to the U.S. dollar — has fallen $12 billion since June, while tether’s circulating supply has dropped over $14 billion since May.

    Selling pressure has slowed, too, as bitcoin miners reduced their sales of the cryptocurrency, suggesting the worst may be over for the mining space. Publicly-traded bitcoin miners sold 12,000 bitcoins in June and only around 3,000 in September, according to Goldman Sachs.

    Wave Financial’s Perruccio expects the second quarter of next year to be the time when crypto winter finally comes to an end.

    “We’ll have seen a lot more failures in the DeFi [decentralized finance] space, a lot of the smaller players, which is absolutely necessary for the industry to evolve,” he added.

    All eyes on the Fed

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