Tag: bitcoin rally

Bitcoin Plummets To $120,600: This Could Be The Next Support

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Bitcoin has seen a pullback below the $121,000 mark in the past day. Here’s where the next support level could lie, according to on-chain data.

Bitcoin Has Witnessed A Fast Plunge During The Last 24 Hours

Bitcoin looked to be entering into an extended all-time high (ATH) exploration mode as it set multiple new records over the weekend and Monday, but the market has been delivered a Tuesday shock as the cryptocurrency has seen a quick crash back below $121,000.

Compared to the new ATH around $126,200, Bitcoin is now down more than 4%. The altcoins have also taken a hit during the past day, with many top coins even printing returns worse than the number one digital asset. 24-hour losses stand at 5% for Ethereum and 6% for XRP. BNB is the only cryptocurrency among the large caps that has managed a positive return of 5%.

With Bitcoin now sliding down, one question naturally arises: how much lower can the asset go? While markets are unpredictable, there can still be some factors worth keeping an eye on. One such factor may be on-chain support clusters.

BTC CBD Shows Support Cluster Around $117,000

In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about how the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) is looking for Bitcoin. The CBD is an indictor that tells us about how many tokens of the cryptocurrency were last acquired at the various spot price levels.

Below is the chart for the metric shared by Glassnode.

As displayed in the above graph, the $120,000 to $121,000 range, which the cryptocurrency is retesting right now, carries the cost basis of a thin amount of supply.

In on-chain analysis, investor cost basis is considered an important topic because holders tend to react in a special manner whenever their break-even level is retested. The more supply that was last purchased at a particular level, the stronger is the market’s reaction to a retest.

When investors face a retest of their profit-loss boundary from the above, they may decide to buy more, believing the drawdown to be a “dip” or for simply defending their cost basis.

Given that the current range contains the cost basis of some investors, some degree of accumulation could happen, but it only remains to be seen whether it will be enough for a bottom.

In the scenario that BTC declines further, the next key support cluster to watch is located near $117,000, where a notable 190,000 BTC was acquired. “A pullback into this area could attract demand as recent buyers defend the level,” explains the analytics firm.

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Keshav Verma

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October 8, 2025
Parabolic Rally In The Making? Bitcoin Regains $70,000 As Traders’ Paper Profits Collapse To 3%

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The world’s largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), has been consolidating over the past week, trading between $67,000 and $70,000 after experiencing a brief 20% price correction that sent it as low as $56,400 in early May.

This consolidation period comes as inflows into the US spot Bitcoin ETF market have reignited, and selling pressure appears to have cooled off, both in the ETF market and among Bitcoin investors more broadly.

Bitcoin Selling Pressure Fades

According to Julio Moreno, head of research at on-chain market analytics firm CryptoQuant, the current Bitcoin price level of $70,000 differs from when it last reached that mark in March.

Moreno notes that traders are now exerting much lower selling pressure, as unrealized profits are only around 3%, compared to 69% in early March. This suggests that much of the “heavy selling” has been exhausted, as seen in the chart below.

Related Reading

Unrealized gains for BTC holders are only 3%. Source: Julio Moreno on X

Santiment data also shows that Bitcoin has once again eclipsed a $70,000 market capitalization, even as the US stock market took a hiatus for the Memorial Day holiday.

Market intelligence platform Santiment sees this as an encouraging sign, as it demonstrates BTC’s ability to perform positively on days when it is not closely correlated with the primary stock market, which has been the case for much of 2022.

Final Pre-Breakout Consolidation Phase

Despite this positive momentum, crypto analyst Rekt Capital has noted that Bitcoin’s latest weekly candle closed below the range high resistance of its ongoing “re-accumulation” phase, which spans roughly $60,000 to $70,000.

This likely sentences the leading cryptocurrency to further consolidation within this range, aligned with Rekt Capital’s thesis that two phases remain in the current bull cycle: the post-halving re-accumulation phase and the “parabolic rally phase.”

Historically, Bitcoin has tended to consolidate around all-time highs before embarking on the most illustrative stretch of its bull cycles. According to the analyst, Bitcoin has indeed been consolidating at these highs for quite some time now, especially by the standards of previous cycles.

While there is still room for further sideways trading at these elevated price levels, the time remaining in this phase is slowly running out. This leads to the belief that the long-awaited post-Halving rally, coupled with renewed investor sentiment, is poised to take the largest cryptocurrency on the market to even higher levels than the current $73,700 reached in mid-March.

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As such, Bitcoin appears to be entering a critical juncture in its current bull cycle. The consolidation and re-accumulation that has dominated the market in recent months could soon give way to the next parabolic surge, should historical patterns hold.

The 1-D chart shows BTC’s price consolidation. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

As of now, BTC has gained 2% in the past 24 hours, adding to its 10% positive movement in the past month alone. Bitcoin is currently trading at $70,200.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Ronaldo Marquez

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May 27, 2024
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Returns To Neutral: Buying Push Already Over?
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The positive Bitcoin Coinbase Premium that drove the latest rally above $70,000 has dissipated, suggesting buying has already slowed down.

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap Has Returned To Neutral Levels

CryptoQuant Netherlands community manager Maartunn explained in a post on X that the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has declined back toward the neutral line.

The “Coinbase Premium Gap” here refers to a metric that keeps track of the difference between the BTC prices listed on cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase (USD pair) and Binance (USDT pair).

When the value of this metric is positive, it means that the price listed on Coinbase is greater than that on Binance right now. Such a trend implies that the buying pressure on the former is higher than that on the latter platform (or alternatively, the selling pressure on there is just lower).

On the other hand, a negative value can imply the selling pressure on Coinbase is higher than on Binance as the price of the cryptocurrency listed there is lower.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap over the past few days:
```
The value of the metric appears to have been close to the neutral line recently | Source: @JA_Maartun on X
```
The chart shows that the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap had taken to notably positive values as the latest upward push in the asset’s price had occurred. Since then, though, the metric has fallen, with its value approaching zero.

It would seem that the buying pressure on the platform contributed to the surge. The fact that the rally has slowed since the metric returned to neutral levels may add further evidence.

This isn’t unnatural for this year, however, as the Bitcoin price and Coinbase Premium Gap have shown a pretty tight relationship since the start of 2024.

Coinbase is popularly known as the preferred platform of American institutional investors, while Binance hosts more global traffic. As such, the premium’s value provides insight into how the behavior of the US-based large holders differs from that of world users.

Since the Coinbase Premium Gap has been the driver of the recent price surges, buying from these institutional entities could potentially have provided the fuel.

As the indicator’s value has now neared the neutral mark, it would imply that these whales have lifted their foot off the gas. Given the close relationship the metric and BTC price have held recently, it may be worth keeping an eye on how things develop in the coming days.

BTC may register some decline if the premium flips into the red from here. Naturally, a continuation of positive values would be a bullish sign instead.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around the $70,100 level, up more than 11% over the past week.
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Looks like the value of the asset has been going up over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
```
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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Keshav Verma

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March 26, 2024
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders & Price Top: Glassnode Reveals Pattern
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The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has explained that Bitcoin tends to reach a potential top when the long-term holders show this pattern.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Have Been Ramping Up Distribution

In a new report, Glassnode discussed the influence that the BTC long-term holders have on the cryptocurrency’s supply dynamics. The “long-term holders” (LTHs) here refer to the Bitcoin investors who have been holding onto their coins for more than 155 days.

The LTHs comprise one of the two main divisions of the BTC user base based on holding time, with the other cohort known as the “short-term holders” (STHs).

Historically, the LTHs have proven themselves to be the persistent hands of the market. They don’t quickly sell their coins regardless of what is happening in the broader sector. The STHs, on the other hand, often react to FUD and FOMO events.

As such, it’s not unusual to see the STHs participating in selling. However, the LTHs showing sustained distribution can be something to note, as selling from these HODLers, who usually sit tight, may have implications for the market.

There are many different ways of tracking the behavior of the LTHs, but in the context of the current discussion, Glassnode has used the “LTH Market Inflation Rate” metric.

As the report explains:

It shows the annualized rate of Bitcoin accumulation or distribution by LTHs relative to daily miner issuance. This rate helps identify periods of net accumulation, where LTHs are effectively removing Bitcoin from the market, and periods of net distribution, where LTHs add to the market’s sell-side pressure.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the BTC LTH Market Inflation Rate over the past several years:
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The value of the metric seems to have been on the rise in recent days | Source: Glassnode
```
In the chart, the analytics firm has also attached the data for the asset’s Inflation Rate, which is basically the amount that the miners are introducing into the circulating supply by solving blocks and receiving rewards for them.

When the LTH Market Inflation Rate equals 0%, these HODLers are accumulating amounts exactly equal to what the miners are issuing.

This implies that the indicator below the 0% mark suggests the LTHs are pulling coins out of the supply, while it being above is a sign that they are either distributing or just not buying enough to absorb what the miners are producing.

The graph shows that historically, the cryptocurrency’s price has tended to reach a state of equilibrium and potentially even a top when the LTH distribution has peaked.

The LTH Market Inflation Rate has been increasing recently, but it’s yet to reach any significant levels. As for what this could mean for the market, Glassnode says:

Currently, the trend in the LTH market inflation rate indicates we are in an early phase of a distribution cycle, with about 30% completed. This suggests significant activity ahead within the current cycle until we achieve a market equilibrium point from the supply and demand perspective and potential price tops.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has retraced most of its recovery from the past few days, as its price has now declined to $63,800.
```
Looks like the price of the asset has witnessed a drawdown again | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
```
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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Keshav Verma

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March 22, 2024
Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Just Locked In $647 Million In Profits
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On-chain data from Glassnode shows that the Bitcoin short-term holders have recently participated in a massive $647 million profit-taking event.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Have Realized Large Net Profits Recently

According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the short-term holders have given a strong reaction to the $52,000 break. The “short-term holders” (STHs) here refer to the Bitcoin investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days.

Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell at any point. The STHs have a relatively low holding time, so they easily sell during price rallies or crashes.

On the other hand, the “long-term holders” (LTHs), which make up the rest of the userbase (that is, those withholding time greater than 155 days), tend to carry a strong resolve.

Since the STHs are fickle-minded, it’s not surprising that they have made some selling moves after the latest rally in the asset. One way to gauge the reaction of this cohort is through the “Net Realized Profit/Loss” metric.

This indicator keeps track of the net profit or loss the investors realize across the network. The metric finds this value by going through the on-chain history of each coin being transferred right now to check the price it was moved at before.

Assuming that a change of hands occurred in the previous transfer and that another such change is happening with the current one, then the coin’s sale would realize a profit or loss equal to the difference between the two prices.

The Net Realized Profit/Loss sums up all such profits and losses and outputs the net value. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in this indicator specifically for the Bitcoin STHs over the past few years:
```
Looks like the value of the metric has been significantly positive in recent days | Source: Glassnode on X
```
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH Net Realized Profit/Loss has spiked to highly positive levels recently, implying that these investors’ profits have significantly outweighed the losses.

This cohort has realized $647 million in net profits during this latest selling spree. The chart shows that the last time the indicator was at higher positive values was back around the formation of the 2021 all-time high.

The current values aren’t off this mark, but the STH Net Realized Profit/Loss levels that hit back during the first half of the 2021 bull run are still far away. For perspective, the peak in the metric achieved back then was $2.5 billion, which remains the all-time high for the indicator.

BTC Price

Since the rapid surge above $52,000, Bitcoin has calmed down slightly, as it has moved sideways in the past few days. At present, BTC is trading at around $52,500.
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The price of the asset seems to have slowed down in the last two days or so | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
```
Featured image from Kanchanara on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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Keshav Verma

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February 16, 2024
Bitcoin Blasts Off As Institutionals Continue Buying On Coinbase
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Bitcoin has observed a sharp rally beyond the $47,000 level as data shows buying pressure on Coinbase has displayed no signs of letting off.

Bitcoin Has Surged More Than 4% In Last 24 Hours As ETF Deadline Nears

After the asset’s indecisiveness over the last few days, the cryptocurrency has appeared to have picked its direction in the last 24 hours, as its price has increased sharply.

At the peak of this surge, the coin had crossed beyond the $47,300 mark, but since then, the coin has registered some pullback as it’s now down to $46,500. The below chart shows how Bitcoin has performed during the last few days.
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Looks like the asset's price has blasted off in the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
```
With this surge, the coin is up over 4% in the last 24 hours. The only cryptocurrencies in the top 20 market cap list that have attained better returns during this period are Solana (SOL) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH).

This latest rally to levels not visited since March 2022 has come for the cryptocurrency as the US SEC deadline for a decision on BTC spot ETFs is approaching fast.

With the expectation in the market widely being that the ETFs would get approved, it’s not surprising that buyers may be jumping in, expecting the asset to rally further after the ETFs start trading.

Data of an indicator could also point towards large entities being involved in accumulation in this leadup to the day of decision.

BTC Coinbase Premium Gap Has Been Positive For More Than A Week Now

As CryptoQuant Netherlands community manager Maartunn pointed out in a post on X, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has been positive for several consecutive days.

The “Coinbase Premium Gap” refers to a metric that keeps track of the difference between the Bitcoin prices listed on cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase (USD pair) and Binance (USDT pair).

This indicator’s value tells us about the difference in the buying (or selling) behaviors on the two largest platforms in the sector. Below is a chart showing the recent trend in this metric’s 14-day simple moving average (SMA).
```
The value of the metric seems to have been green since a while now | Source: @JA_Maartun on X
```
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has been positive for almost 2024, with only one dip in the metric coming on the first day of the year.

This suggests that the buying pressure on Coinbase has been greater than on Binance for over a week now. US-based institutional investors widely use the former, while the latter hosts more global traffic.

Thus, this indicates that large institutional traders have possibly been going shopping recently. Another indicator that suggests accumulation from the whales is the “large holders netflow” metric from IntoTheBlock, which has displayed positive spikes recently.
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The data for the BTC large holders netflow since the start of the year | Source: IntoTheBlock on X
```
“Large holders bought the dip! Bitcoin holders holding >1% of the supply accumulated more than 14k BTC over the past week as prices dipped below $43k,” explains IntoTheBlock.

Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com, IntoTheBlock.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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Keshav Verma

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January 9, 2024
Bitcoin “Outlook Remains Bullish,” As Long As This Stays True: Analyst
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An analyst has explained that the outlook for Bitcoin should remain bullish as long as the cryptocurrency’s price remains above this level.

Bitcoin Has Strong On-Chain Support Above $41,800

In a new post on X, analyst Ali talked about the various BTC support and resistance levels from an on-chain perspective. In on-chain analysis, the strength of any support or resistance level depends on the amount of Bitcoin that the investors bought at said level.

The chart below shows what the distribution of the different BTC price ranges currently looks like based on the concentration of holder cost basis that they carry.
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How the various price ranges near the current spot price are looking like in terms of support and resistance | Source: @ali_charts on X
```
As displayed in the above graph, the $41,800 to $43,100 range hosts the acquisition price of most Bitcoin out of all the price ranges listed. To be more specific, about 2.4 million addresses acquired 1 million BTC within this range.

The cost basis is naturally of immense significance for any investor, as the spot price retesting can flip their profit-loss situation. As such, holders become more likely to show some move when a retest like this happens.

A holder in profit before the retest might tend to buy more when the retest happens, as they might believe this same level that proved profitable earlier would do so again.

On the other hand, loss holders might want to sell at their break-even level since they may fear the cryptocurrency going down again, putting them underwater again.

These buying and selling moves aren’t enough to move the market when just a few investors are making them, but if a large number of investors have their cost basis inside a narrow range, the reaction could become significant.

Since those above $41,800 to $43,100 range is dense with investors, it should be an essential on-chain range. The spot price is floating above the range so that these prices could act as a support barrier for the asset. Based on this, Ali explains, “as long as Bitcoin maintains its position above $41,800, the outlook remains bullish.”

The chart shows that the Bitcoin ranges above the price aren’t carrying the cost basis of that many investors. This could imply that there isn’t much resistance ahead for the coin.

The analyst notes that this lack of major resistance also strengthens the potential for the cryptocurrency to stay at the current levels or push towards the higher ones.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has been gradually making its way back up after the recent crash, with its price climbing towards the $43,800 mark. The below chart shows how the asset has performed during the last few days.
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BTC has gone through a bit of a rollercoaster since the new year has started | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
```
Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, IntoTheBlock.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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Keshav Verma

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January 5, 2024
Bitcoin Deja Vu: Capital Inflows Mirror Pre-2021 Bull Run Momentum
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On-chain data shows the cryptocurrency capital inflows currently look similar to December 2020, right before Bitcoin rallied from $18,000 to $65,000.

Bitcoin & Ethereum Are Getting $19.7 Billion In Capital Injections Currently

As explained by analyst Ali in a new post on X, Bitcoin and Ethereum are receiving a large amount of capital inflows currently. To showcase these positive flows, the analyst has referred to the “BTC + ETH Net Position Change” indicator from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.

What this metric does is that it keeps track of the 30-day change taking place in the combined realized cap of these top two cryptocurrencies. The “realized cap” here basically refers to the total amount of capital (in USD) that investors have used to purchase a given asset.

As such, the metric’s net position change could provide hints about whether the total money invested into the coin in question has gone up or down during the past month.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in this indicator for Bitcoin and Ethereum over the past few years:
```
The value of the metric appears to have been going up in recent days | Source: @ali_charts on X
```
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin + Ethereum Net Position Change has been inside the positive territory recently and has only been climbing up. The trend naturally makes sense, as both of the assets have registered some sharp rises during the past month.

Currently, the indicator has a value of $19.7 billion. As Ali has pointed out, “This is around the same capital inflow we saw back in December 2020 before BTC surged from $18,000 to $65,000!”

In the same chart, data for two other metrics is also shown. The first is the “Stablecoin Net Position Change,” which, as its name suggests, keeps track of the monthly inflows and outflows for the major USD stablecoins in the sector.

Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, though, this metric doesn’t make use of the realized cap, but simply the supply of the stables. This is obviously due to the fact that these coins have mostly the same value at all points, so the realized cap wouldn’t be any different from the market cap (which itself is equivalent to the supply as the price is $1).

From the chart, it’s visible that the stablecoins have also enjoyed positive inflows recently. This means that all three major asset classes in the sector, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the stables, are receiving capital injections currently.

Most of the capital inflows and outflows towards the cryptocurrency sector happen through these three. The altcoins only receive their capital through a rotation from these core assets.

Thus, the stablecoins and top two cryptocurrencies simultaneously enjoying positive inflows have historically been a very bullish combination for the sector as a whole. This constructive combination didn’t form for most of this year but finally has during this latest leg in the rally.

The last indicator on the chart keeps track of the net incomings and outgoings from the sector as a whole by simply summing up the netflows for BTC + ETH and the stables. As is apparent, this metric also has a value similar to December 2020 at the moment.

Looking at Bitcoin’s historical performance following December 2020, it could mean that the BTC price is set for another price surge going forward.

BTC Price

Bitcoin had recovered above the $43,000 level just earlier, but it appears the coin has seen a setback as it’s now once again trading below the mark.
```
Looks like the price of the asset has shot up during the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
```
Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
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Keshav Verma

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December 14, 2023
Is Bitcoin Overvalued Yet? What Historical Data Suggests
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Here’s what the data of this historical on-chain indicator suggests regarding whether Bitcoin has become overvalued after its latest uptrend.

Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Hasn’t Climbed Too High Yet

As the Reflexivity Research co-founder pointed out in a post on X, the BTC MVRV Z-Score readings have heated up little compared to the values observed in past bull runs.

The “Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio” is an indicator that measures the ratio between the Bitcoin market cap and the realized cap. The “realized cap” refers to a capitalization model for the cryptocurrency that assumes the “true” value of any coin in circulation is the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain.

Since the last transaction price of any coin was likely the price at which it changed hands, one way to interpret the realized cap is that it represents the total capital the holders have invested into the asset.

Since the MVRV ratio compares the market cap (the spot price) against this model, it can tell us whether the investors are holding more value than they put in right now.

If the investors are holding more than what they bought the coin for (that is, they are in net profits), they might be tempted to sell, and thus, BTC might be likely to see a correction. Similarly, the market being in losses can suggest the cryptocurrency’s price is currently undervalued and might be due to a rebound.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Z-Score of the Bitcoin MVRV ratio over the history of the coin:
```
The value of the metric appears to have been going up in recent days | Source: @WClementeIII on X
```
The “Z-Score” is a statistical tool used to measure how far a data point is from the mean. In the graph, the analyst has marked two zones for the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score where BTC has attained an overbought/underbought condition.

It would appear that historical bottoms in the asset’s price have formed when the metric has dipped inside the green zone. The tops haven’t been so simple, though, as they fluctuate a bit.

One common thing between all tops is that they have occurred at decently high values of the indicator. At such values, the investors make very high profits, so tops naturally become significantly probable.

The chart shows that the Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score has been climbing recently as the asset has rallied, but it’s yet to arrive at levels similar to past tops. “There will be corrections along the way, but zooming out Bitcoin is far from overvalued based on historical readings,” notes the analyst.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $43,800, up 15% in the last week.
```
Looks like BTC has registered a sharp uptrend over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
```
Featured image from iStock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com
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Keshav Verma

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December 6, 2023
Bitcoin Bull Run Is Only Just Starting, According To This Metric
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On-chain data shows the Bitcoin SOPR hasn’t yet reached high levels that have been associated with heated bull market phases in the past.

Bitcoin SOPR Has Only Seen Mildly Positive Values Recently

In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has explained how market psychology has driven the BTC price during the past few years. The on-chain indicator that best represents the Bitcoin trader psychology according to the quant is the “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (SOPR).

The SOPR basically tells us about whether the BTC investors are selling their coins (or more precisely, transferring them on the blockchain) at a net amount of profit or loss.

When the indicator has a value greater than 1, it means that the average holder in the sector is selling their coins at some profit right now. On the other hand, a value under this threshold implies that loss-selling is dominant among the participants.

Naturally, when the SOPR has a value exactly equal to 1, the overall market can be assumed to be just breaking even on their selling, as the number of profits being realized is exactly canceling out the losses.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin SOPR over the past few years:
```
Looks like the value of the metric has been slightly positive in recent weeks | Source: CryptoQuant
```
In the above graph, the analyst has marked the pattern that the Bitcoin SOPR has followed in recent years. During the 2018 bear market, the BTC SOPR dropped to pretty low values below 1 following the November 2018 crash. Coinciding with these lows in the metric, the price also found its bottom.

In the 2022 bear market, the BTC investors were keeping still in the red as they participated in only a relatively low amount of loss selling until the FTX crash occurred and the holders finally capitulated to a significant degree.

So far, it would appear that the low after the FTX collapse was indeed the bottom for the current cycle, as BTC has only gone and doubled in value since then. The pattern of this bottom has also been consistent with the one of the 2018 bear market.

In between these two major bottoms, there was also a large-scale capitulation event back in 2020, but this crash was mostly an anomaly caused by the unexpected emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic.

From the chart, it’s visible that the trend during rallies has generally been just the opposite: investors start selling at large profits and once the profit-taking attains extreme levels, the top is hit.

Earlier this year, the BTC SOPR spiked to high levels around when BTC hit its local top in April. Since then, though, the indicator has remained relatively calm, with some mild profit-taking coming after the latest leg in the rally.

“There will be many corrections and declines in the current market until it reaches the peak of the bull market, but from a psychological perspective, there still seems to be enough time left until the latter half of the bull market,” thinks the quant.

BTC Price

Bitcoin had registered a decline below the $37,000 level during the past day, but the asset has pulled itself back up since then as it’s just floating above the mark now.
```
The price of the asset appears to have seen some drawdown recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
```
Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
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Keshav Verma

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November 28, 2023
Analyst Sets $47,000 Target For Bitcoin If This Happens
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An analyst has explained how $47,360 could be the next target for Bitcoin if the cryptocurrency can clear the $38,500 resistance wall.

Bitcoin URPD Suggests $47,360 Holds Next Major Resistance After $38,500

In a new post on X, analyst Ali talked about what the levels ahead of BTC are looking like right now in terms of the on-chain resistance. The indicator of interest here is the “UTXO Realized Price Distribution” (URPD), which tells us about the amount of coins (or more precisely, the UTXOs) that were last acquired at the various levels that the cryptocurrency has visited in its history.

Generally, the levels that host the cost basis of a significant number of investors can be important levels for Bitcoin, due to how investor psychology tends to work.

To any holder, their acquisition price is naturally a level that’s important, so whenever the price retests that point, they may become more prone to make some sort of move. How they may react to the retest may depend on what their profitability status was prior to the retest.

An investor who was in profits before might want to take a further gamble and buy more, as they may think that the price would go up again in the near term. On the other hand, a holder who was in losses might just want to exit at their acquisition price, just so they can at least avoid going into losses again in the future.

Such buying or selling that arises out of these retests can provide support or resistance to the asset’s price. As mentioned before, though, only levels with a large number of investors are really of any relevance to BTC, as just a few users making these buy or sell moves won’t tick the price meaningfully.

The below chart shows the data for the Bitcoin URPD, to see where the major centers of holder cost basis lie.
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Looks like the the level just ahead hosts the cost basis of a significant amount of UTXOs | Source: @ali_charts on X
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As displayed in the above graph, the $37,000 level holds the cost basis of a large number of UTXOs, suggesting that the mark should prove to be a strong support wall for the cryptocurrency.

This is certainly an optimistic sign for the rally, as it means that BTC might be able to hold itself above this level without too much effort and work at building an upward move.

The next level that might pose any major resistance could be $38,500, but if Bitcoin can successfully clear this wall, the levels ahead are relatively thin with investors.

From the chart, it’s visible that above $47,000 is where the next resistance boundary lies. So Ali thinks that if a break above $38,500 happens, BTC could advance toward this level.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has slumped back toward the $37,000 level, but if the on-chain data explained earlier is anything to refer to, the asset should find support here.
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BTC had broken above $38,000 recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
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Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com
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Keshav Verma

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November 27, 2023
Has Bitcoin Reached “Euphoria” Yet? What On-Chain Data Says
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Here’s what on-chain data says regarding if the latest Bitcoin rally has hit the overheated “euphoria” stage where past bull runs topped out.

Bitcoin Percent Supply In Profit Has Now Hit The 83% Mark

In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed about the “euphoric” BTC phase from the angle of investor profitability. Euphoria basically refers to that period of the market where the investors have started embracing greed and the rally is becoming heated.

Historically, the major rallies in the asset have attained their tops in such market conditions. To define what constitutes euphoria, Glassnode has referred to the “percent supply in profit” metric. This indicator keeps track of the percentage of the total circulating Bitcoin supply that’s currently being held at a profit.

Here is a chart that shows the trend in this indicator over the past decade:
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The value of the metric seems to have observed a large spike in recent days | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 47, 2023
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As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin percent supply in profit has naturally shot up as the latest rally in the cryptocurrency has occurred and the metric’s value is now floating around the 83% mark.

The all-time mean of the metric is 74%, so the current levels are notably above this level. In the chart, the analytics firm has also marked the +1 standard deviation line for the indicator, above which the market can be thought to have entered into the early stages of the euphoria phase.

The +1 standard deviation line for the metric is around 90%, so the current profitability levels are still below the mark but are nonetheless quickly closing in the gap.

As mentioned before, these profitability levels are in terms of the supply or the coins, calculated by checking for the number of tokens that have their cost basis below the current spot price.

There is another way to gauge profitability, however, and it’s the magnitude of the profits that these coins are combined are seeing right now. This unrealized profit is naturally calculated by subtracting the cost basis of each coin from the current spot price and summing up these differences for the entire supply in profit.
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The data for the unrealized profit over the past decade | Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 47, 2023
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“For the analysis of investor behavior, often the unrealized profit is a more critical variable as it relates back to the USD-denominated profit of investor positions,” explains Glassnode.

From the graph, it’s visible that the +1 standard deviation line for this Bitcoin indicator is still quite a distance away from the current value, meaning the coin is far from reaching the euphoric state of the bull market.

“This suggests that whilst a significant volume of the supply is in profit, most have a cost basis, which is only moderately below the current spot price,” notes the report.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has gone through some volatility over the past day following the news of Changpeng Zhao (CZ) stepping down as Binance’s CEO. The asset had earlier slipped below the $36,000 level but has since recovered back to $36,600.
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Looks like BTC has been mostly trading sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
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Featured image from Yiğit Ali Atasoy on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com
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Keshav Verma

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November 22, 2023