The Bitcoin price performance was one of the brightest stories in the crypto market in the month of October. While some crypto analysts currently have bearish projections for the premier cryptocurrency, others have maintained a positive stance for BTC’s performance in November and beyond.
A crypto analyst known by the pseudonym Mags on the X (formerly Twitter) platform recently offered an insight into Bitcoin’s price action, quelling bearish sentiments around the pioneer cryptocurrency.
The Current Cycle Witnessed Its Own Black Swan Event
Bitcoin enthusiasts and analysts have been closely monitoring the coin’s price movements, with some skeptics anticipating a significant drop to as low as $12,000. Mags, on the other hand, said on X that the recent slow but steady upward trajectory of Bitcoin suggests a different narrative.
The crypto analyst posited that the current Bitcoin price action resembles a phase of vertical accumulation, hinting at the potential for a parabolic surge in the near future. Mags claimed that people waiting for a substantial price decline seem to be in disbelief.
Furthermore, Mags suggested that most bearish projections are centered around the potential occurrence of a black swan event. For context, a black swan event refers to an unpredictable incident that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences.
However, the analyst believes that the anticipated black swan event has already occurred. While the black swan event in the 2021 bull cycle was the COVID-19-induced market crash, the current bull cycle witnessed the FTX exchange collapse as its own black swan event.
As a result of FTX’s collapse, Bitcoin price plunged to as low as $15,500. Nevertheless, BTC’s price has been on a gradual ascent and is back up by more than 120% since the market crash. This steady price rise reflects the cryptocurrency’s robust nature and its ability to bounce back from unforeseen setbacks.
Bitcoin Price Overview
The Bitcoin price has been on a tear in the past weeks, rallying by more than 25% in the last month. However, it is worth noting that the premier cryptocurrency has somewhat slowed down in the past few days, with only a 1.9% price increase in the past week.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at $34,765, reflecting a 1.5% price jump in the past 24 hours. Although the market leader breached the $35,000 mark and traveled to a high of $35,700 in the past week, it has struggled to maintain momentum and stay above $35,000.
Bitcoin price at $34,758 on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
The Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, Jurrien Timmer, recently provided insights into the potential of the flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and went as far as labeling the crypto token as “exponential gold.”
A Glance At Bitcoin’s Adoption Curve
In a post released on his X (formerly Twitter) platform, Timmer mentioned that Bitcoin’s scarcity and adoption curve potentially allow it to be a “high-powered hedge against monetary shenanigans,” likely alluding to the fact that the token’s features make it a great option to hedge against inflation. That is why he sees the token as “exponential gold.”
Source: X
He further elaborated on Bitcoin’s adoption curve, stating that it has so far followed a “typical S-curve shape,” which places it in good company with other major innovations that went through such an adoption journey. One of them is mobile phones, as Timmer noted that Bitcoin’s adoption curve in 2020 resembled that of mobile phones in the ‘80s and ‘90s.
Source: X
Bitcoin, however, seems to have moved to another stage in the adoption curve, as Timmer stated that the “real-rate narrative changed from dovish in 2020 to hawkish in 2022.” He further suggested that Bitcoin has moved past the stage of a rapid rise as its adoption curve has flattened out. With this, Timmer believes that it now shares similarities with the adoption curve of the internet in the 2000s as the crypto token “has not made much progress since 2021.”
Bitcoin Volatility: Good Or Bad?
In a subsequent post, Timmer put Bitcoin’s volatility in perspective as he compared it with other asset classes. First, he shared a risk-reward chart for the pandemic and post-pandemic era ranging from 2020 to this year. The SPX seemed to provide the best risk-reward with close to 24% return.
Source: X
Timmer then went on to share another chart, which included Bitcoin this time around. The foremost cryptocurrency notably stood out from the rest, as he mentioned that Bitcoin was “in a different universe,” with a 58% return.
Source: X
Bitcoin’s high volatility seems to have contributed to such returns in no small way, as Timmer mentioned that the crypto token’s huge drawdowns also come with large gains. To drive home his point, he shared another chart that showed drawdowns and rallies, which various asset classes have experienced from their 2-year high and low, respectively.
Source: X
The chart showed that Bitcoin experienced a 54% drawdown from its two-year high but is also up by 84% from its low in the same period.
This is more impressive when one considers how other asset classes have fared in the same period as Timmer stated that Government bonds “can’t hold a candle” to Bitcoin’s risk-reward math.
Hayden Adams, the founder of Uniswap, one of the world’s largest decentralized exchanges (DEXes), thinks the jury was right to find Sam Bankman-fried, also known as SBF, the disgraced founder of FTX, a now-defunct exchange, guilty on all seven charges brought forward by the prosecution.
SBF’s Guilty Verdict Is Correct: But Not Time To Celebrate
Taking to X on November 3, Adams, one of the influential figures in decentralized finance (DeFi), said though the jury might be correct in their decision, it might not be the right time to celebrate. The founder explained that the FTX bankruptcy not only led to users losing billions, but the industry took a massive reputational hit.
In Adams’ view, the few winners in this case are the lawyers involved and the various crypto opponents the founder didn’t mention.
The collapse of FTX in November 2022 marked a dark history in crypto. Happening at the tail-end of what was already a challenging year for leading assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), the fall of FTX caught the community mostly unawares.
Days before the then-popular exchange declared bankruptcy, Alameda Research and Caroline Ellison, one of the top executives associated with FTX, said they were willing to buy back FTT, the crypto token issued by FTX.
The United States Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) pressed charges against FTX and Sam Bankman-fried weeks after they declared bankruptcy. The DOJ charged Bankman-Fried with several charges, including conspiracy to commit wire fraud and money laundering.
The SEC said Bankman-Fried orchestrated a scheme to defraud investors and customers. Of note, the regulator said Bankman-Fried misled investors about the health of FTX and its trading wing, Alameda Research. The former FTX boss pleaded not guilty to all charges.
FTX Collapse Is A Lesson To Crypto
After four weeks in a trial that began in early October, Sam Bankman-Fried was found guilty of seven criminal counts. However, the official sentencing will be in March 2024. The former FTX founder could face a maximum possible sentence of 115 years in prison.
Following this verdict, Adams said, learning from the FTX collapse, the industry should focus on technology and the sphere’s values, mainly revolving around building decentralized systems that are open, auditable, yet secure. To stay safe, the Uniswap founder said crypto users should easily pick out “personality cult sociopaths,” which enabled Sam Bankman-Fried to thrive before being caught after FTX fell.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has taken legal action against Bitcoin Magazine, alleging that the publication’s parody merchandise infringes on its image and trademarks.
The dispute revolves around using the FedNow Service image and trademark in merchandise sold by Bitcoin Magazine, which aims to critique the surveillance capabilities of the FedNow system and its potential impact on civil liberties.
Bitcoin Magazine has responded with an open letter, asserting its First Amendment rights and refusing to comply with the cease-and-desist request.
Fed Accuses Bitcoin Magazine Of Unauthorized Infringement
According to Bitcoin Magazine, the US Federal Reserve has initiated legal proceedings in response to the publication’s parody merchandise.
The central bank claims that the merchandise, which uses the FedNow Service image and trademark, constitutes unauthorized infringement and misleading association with the Federal Reserve.
In an open letter penned to the Federal Reserve Financial Services’s Deputy General Counsel, Bitcoin Magazine’s editor-in-chief, Mark Goodwin, expressed gratitude for the inquiry while asserting the publication’s refusal to comply with the cease-and-desist request.
Goodwin highlighted concerns regarding the FedNow system’s potential infringement on civil liberties and emphasized the publication’s First Amendment rights to criticize and parody the system.
First Amendment Battle
Bitcoin Magazine firmly believes that its parody merchandise falls within protected speech under the First Amendment. It argues that the imagery used serves as social commentary, specifically critiquing the surveillance aspects associated with the FedNow system.
The publication maintains that its readership would not associate Bitcoin Magazine with the Federal Reserve and that no confusion or deception is intended. Goodwin further claimed:
We do not believe that anyone that is familiar with our editorial guidelines and general stance on the world would ever associate Bitcoin Magazine with the Federal Reserve. We agree with your assertion that “no such association or relationship exists.” We look forward to defending our First Amendment rights, and the opportunity to make clear to all Americans the difference between the open, free, and decentralized financial system that is Bitcoin, and the centralized FedNow system that threatens our nation’s founding values.
The legal dispute between the US Federal Reserve and Bitcoin Magazine over parody merchandise sold by the publication highlights the clash between intellectual property rights and freedom of speech.
Bitcoin Magazine asserts its First Amendment rights to criticize and parody the FedNow system, emphasizing the importance of open dialogue and the distinction between the publication and the Federal Reserve.
The outcome of this legal battle will have implications for the boundaries of protected speech and the ability to critique public institutions.
After a brief rally to the mid-$35,000 level, Bitcoin (BTC) has again pulled back, falling below this threshold and failing to establish a strong consolidation above it. Currently, the market’s leading cryptocurrency is trading at $34,700, down 0.5% over the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
In a week brimming with anticipation, the Bitcoin and crypto market is poised to witness a series of significant events that could steer the trajectory of digital assets. From pivotal price action in Bitcoin to crucial decisions by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), and from landmark trials to influential crypto conferences, the week is packed with developments that could have substantial implications for investors and the crypto industry alike.
So here’s a detailed look at the top four events that are expected to capture the market’s attention in the coming days.
#1 Bitcoin At $40,000 This Week?
Bitcoin’s recent performance has been nothing short of impressive. The leading cryptocurrency marked its highest weekly close since May 2022, with a 15% gain last week. The bullish sentiment is further fueled by the anticipation of a spot Bitcoin ETF. Currently, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase, but renowned technical analyst, “Titan Of Crypto,” believes there’s more to come.
Bitcoin at $40,000 next week? BTC is trying to break out from both bullish pennant and the inside bar’s range. Tenkan starts pointing up. If the following conditions are matched: Kijun follows Tenkan, daily candle manages to close above the range and stay above $34.5k. [Then,] Bitcoin could teleport to $40k in a blink of an eye.
Bitcoin price prediction | Source: X @Washigorira
#2 Fed Rate Decision And FOMC
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to make its rate decision on Wednesday, November 1, 2023, at 2:00 pm, followed by a press conference with Fed chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 pm. The consensus among analysts is that the FOMC will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25 to 5.5. The CME FEDWatch tool supports this, with 96.2% expecting no change.
CME FedWatch | Source: CME
Notably, market conditions have become far more fragile than they were a year ago. The Fed needs to navigate their battle against inflation carefully as it can’t afford a severe recession.
Bank of America commented on the upcoming meeting, stating, “We still do not expect a hike in November, as the Fed is clearly worried about the extent of financial tightening. But today’s robust spending and inflation data keep a December hike on the table.”
Goldman Sachs economists added, “Fed officials appear to have signaled that they will not be hiking at their November meeting next week… the story of the year so far has been that economic reacceleration has not prevented further labor market rebalancing and progress in the inflation fight.”
#3 Sam Bankman-Fried’s Trial Nears End
The high-profile trial of Sam Bankman-Fried, related to the collapse of the FTX exchange, is nearing its conclusion. As the trial resumes on Monday, October 30, 2023, Bankman-Fried will continue his direct examination by his defense lawyer, presenting an alternative narrative to the testimonies of former employees and witnesses against him.
Following this, the government will cross-examine him, potentially leading to a rebuttal case by the prosecution. This part of the trial is expected to consume most of the week, with the jury likely to make a decision by next week’s end.
#4 Solana Breakpoint Conference
Solana’s annual Breakpoint conference is set to kick off today in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. The event, which runs from October 30 to November 3, will feature Solana Labs CEO Anatoly Yakovenko, key project leaders from the Solana ecosystem, and speakers from Stripe and Visa.
Historically, Breakpoint has been a platform for significant announcements. Last year, Solana Labs unveiled a $100 million social media fund and a $150 million blockchain gaming fund. This year, there’s buzz around RNDR – Render Network’s team, which is expected to launch Render 2.0 soon. The entire conference will be livestreamed on X and Solana’s YouTube channel.
The Bitcoin price has been on a mesmeric run in the past few weeks, largely due to talks of the potential approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF (exchange-traded fund) in the United States. And there has been broad commentary about what is to come for the premier cryptocurrency should the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) greenlight the current applications for a spot ETF.
Cantor Fitzgerald, a prominent investment and brokerage firm, is amongst the latest entities to weigh in on the possibility and the potential impact of a Bitcoin spot ETF in the United States.
Here’s Why Cantor Fitzgerald Thinks Bitcoin Spot ETF Will Be Approved
According to a Bloomberg report, Josh Siegler and Will Carlson, research analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald, are becoming “increasingly confident” that the highly-anticipated Bitcoin spot ETF would receive the approval of the SEC in the US.
The Cantor Fitzgerald analysts believe that the SEC, which has been reluctant to approve the Bitcoin investment product due to various market concerns, is now more likely to greenlight the modified and newly filed applications.
The report highlighted that “a comprehensive surveillance-sharing agreement with a regulated market of significant size” might force the hands of the SEC. Interestingly, all the pending spot ETF filings appear to now include a surveillance-sharing agreement in order to detect and address market irregularities.
Furthermore, Cantor’s analysts mentioned the recent ruling in favor of Grayscale, which overturned the SEC’s rejection of the asset manager’s proposal to convert its Bitcoin trust into an ETF. Siegler and Carlson added:
Ultimately, the court found that the SEC failed to explain why it approved Bitcoin futures ETFs, but rejected Grayscale’s spot offering, despite substantial evidence that the two products are similar, across several regulatory factors.
Finally, Siegler and Carlson believe “a Bitcoin spot ETF approval is the most important short-term catalyst for Bitcoin’s price.” To support this assertion, the analysts cited the latest price rally by the premier cryptocurrency, which all began with an erroneous headline that BlackRock’s ETF had been approved.
The Cantor Fitzgerald analysts added:
The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US will be “a bedrock moment” for Bitcoin’s long-term adoption and legitimization.
Bitcoin Price Overview
As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $34,104, with a negligible 0.2% increase in the past 24 hours. The market leader has been moving mostly sideways since failing to close above $35,000 – its highest level in almost 18 months – earlier this week.
Nevertheless, BTC has maintained a huge portion of its profit on the weekly timeframe, with a substantial 13.2% gain in the past seven days. Meanwhile, the premier cryptocurrency has jumped nearly 27% in the past two weeks, according to CoinGecko data.
Bitcoin price thickens on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has once again reclaimed $34,000 even as the euphoria around the possibility of a Spot Bitcoin ETF being approved soon. Following this, there is the need to look at the predictions of certain analysts who have weighed on the future trajectory of the flagship cryptocurrency from its current price action.
Where Is Bitcoin Headed From $34,000?
In a post shared on his X (formerly Twitter) platform, the CEO and Founder of trading platform MN Trading, Michaël van de Poppe, stated that the crypto was fighting $34,700 as resistance and that if it were to break out from that level, the crypto token could rise to as high as $37,000 to $38,000.
He also seemed to suggest that $32,600 and $33,100 were key support levels to keep an eye on as he labeled them “areas of longing.” Another crypto analyst, CryptoTony, projects that Bitcoin could still spike up to $36,000 before “rejecting and letting the range begin.”
Still looking for that spike up to $36,000 before rejecting and letting the range begin. I will be long while we are above $30,000 personally, as we entered at $29,000
Bitcoin Halving has become an important metric in making price predictions as the event draws near. In line with this, crypto analyst CryptoConmentioned that the 2-Year-Old Cumulative Bands MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) indicates that the pre-halving woes have occurred.
BTCUSD is currently trading at $34.142. Chart: TradingView.com
Bearing this in mind, CryptoCon seemed bullish on the crypto token as he stated that “Bitcoin has something special in store for us next.” The analyst had recently predicted that Bitcoin could hit $45,000 as early as November based on their analysis of historical data and past cycles.
Another crypto analyst, Crypto Rover, also mentioned using technical analysis that a bull flag was breaking out on the charts. This suggests that the rally already experienced might be nothing compared to what is on the way.
Several crypto analysts have, over time, noted the correlation between BTC and the stock market. Bitcoin is said to experience a decline whenever stocks are down and an upward trend whenever these stocks are on the rise. However, recent data suggests that this trend might be over (for now, at least).
In a post on the X platform, Bitcoin Magazine noted that Bitcoin has so far decoupled from the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones this month. Bitcoin is up by over 28% in October, while the Nasdaq and S&P500 have had a relatively quiet month with just over 3% gains this month.
Bitcoin is also hitting new highs (this year) in its dominance over the broader crypto market. Data from TradingView shows that the coin’s dominance currently stands at close to 54%. The flagship cryptocurrency has enjoyed an upward trend since the year began and hasn’t seen any significant competition from Ethereum despite talks about ‘The Flippening.’
Over the past week, Bitcoin price reached new multi-month highs largely due to the euphoria of the potential approval of a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF). While the recent momentum appears to have waned in the past few days, there are signs that the premier cryptocurrency may not be done just yet.
Crypto analytics platform IntoTheBlock has offered an insight into the present action and future trajectory of Bitcoin, highlighting major levels investors might want to keep an eye on.
This Could Happen If Bitcoin Price Closes Above $35,000
In a post on the X (formerly Twitter) platform, IntoTheBlock shared the next Bitcoin price levels to watch out for. The on-chain data tracker stated that investors can identify where the price of BTC may be heading based on the recent buying activity recorded on-chain.
Bitcoin Levels to Watch – Based on buying activity recorded on-chain, we can identify price levels where BTC may be heading next
🔼The recent high of $35,000 is the next resistance point for Bitcoin, where previously 664,000 holders bought 340k BTC 🔼If this level is surpassed,… pic.twitter.com/63oBOngxBQ
According to IntoTheBlock’s analysis, the recent multi-month high of $35,000 is the next major resistance level for Bitcoin. On Wednesday, October 25, Bitcoin touched – albeit failed to close above – the $35,000 mark for the first time since mid-2022
Furthermore, the on-chain analytics platform highlighted that more than 664,000 addresses bought about 340,000 BTC at the $35,000 level. If Bitcoin’s price manages to breach and stay above this mark, investors could see the market leader travel to around $39,000, where the next major resistance lies.
On the flip side, if the current momentum continues to cool off and there is further downward movement, the BTC price could go as low as the $30,000 mark. According to IntoTheBlock, there seems to be concentrated buying activity just above the psychological price level, with nearly 1.5 million addresses purchasing 553,000 BTC around this point.
After a memorable week dominated by the anticipation of a Bitcoin spot ETF, the Bitcoin price has been relatively quiet in the past few days. As of this writing, the premier cryptocurrency trades at $34,121, reflecting no significant price change in the past 24 hours.
In a separate report, IntoTheBlock has highlighted the rise of institutional interest in Bitcoin. According to data from the on-chain analytics platform, the number of BTC transactions over $100,000 surpassed 23,400 on Tuesday, October 24, marking a new high in 2023.
Number of Bitcoin Large Transactions | Source: IntoTheBlock/X
IntoTheBlock specifically pointed to the recent spot exchange-traded fund as the force behind the rising institutional interest in Bitcoin. The last time this metric witnessed a significant spike was in June 2023 when BlackRock filed for a BTC spot ETF.
Bitcoin price trades around $34,000 on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
If Google Trends data is anything to go by, it could mean that Americans don’t care about Bitcoin (BTC) or the interest is ultra-low and falling despite the series of bullish events in the last few days.
Americans Are Not Interested In Bitcoin?
A spot check of Google Trends over the past years shows that not only are searches related to “buy Bitcoin” discouragingly falling but are at 2023 lows, with related average daily searches scoring less than 20. The only time “buy Bitcoin” searches spiked was in early September when it rose to a score of 70, an indicator that more people were curious, willing to explore, and even buy the world’s most valuable coin.
Sentiment is a crucial factor in crypto because it can influence prices. To illustrate, when sentiment improves, crypto investors are more likely to buy and hold on to their treasured coins in hopes of riding the emerging trend and raking in profits.
Conversely, when crypto assets begin falling, as in 2022 and the second half of 2023, holders will often flee to safety, selling their coins for stablecoins like USDT or cash. In some instances, however, without an option, investors will look to exit for an established coin like Bitcoin or Ethereum (ETH), pumping those respective assets.
As the market evolves, sentiment can be influenced by news events, regulatory developments, or influencer comments. Elon Musk, the owner of X, the social media platform, has been sued on allegations that the billionaire deliberately conducted a pump-and-dump scheme, manipulating Dogecoin (DOGE) prices and profiting at the expense of others.
SEC Likely To Approve The First Spot Bitcoin ETF In The US
Google Trends is one of the tools users can use to gauge crypto sentiment. However, looking at events in the United States, interest in BTC is yearly low. This is despite the community expecting the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve the first spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF).
After several attempts in the past, analysts have been gradually increasing the odds of the strict regulator green-lighting the first Bitcoin ETF in Q4 2023 or early 2023. Still, it needs to be clarified whether the agency will authorize one or multiple products simultaneously. If the SEC disapproves a Bitcoin ETF, JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said the agency could face “legal troubles.”
In anticipation of the product and ahead of Bitcoin halving in 2024, the coin recently broke above July 2023 highs, registering a new 2023 high above $35,000. Though prices have been steadying, the uptrend remains, and traders expect more gains.
The price of Bitcoin stands firm around the critical area of $34,000, hinting at further bullish potential. However, market analysts wonder if enough clues point to the upside or if BTC will return to $20,000.
As of this writing, BTC trades at $34,150 with sideways movement in the last 24 hours. The cryptocurrency recorded a 15% profit the previous week and remains a top coin performer by market cap.
Bitcoin On-Chain Activity Rises Hinting At A Bull Run?
Data from the analytics platform mempool.space shows an increase in on-chain activity on the Bitcoin network. This spike occurred in February 2023, when BTC transactions rose above 50 Mega Virtual bytes (MvB).
According to the analytics platform, the above metric measures the size of transactions and blocks on the BTC network. The larger the transaction, the more space they required.
As seen in the chart below, each time there is a rise in the price of BTC, there is a surge of activity leading to the rally. This happened in 2017, and 2021, and it is happening this year, which suggests the ecosystem is blooming, onboarding more users, and preparing for a more significant rally like in the previous year.
BTC on-chain activity on the rise in 2023, increase precedes market rally? Source: mempool.space
In addition to the increase in activity, it is possible to see the decline in the metric during the bear market and conclude bull markets record high activity. In contrast, the bear market records much less user activity, and they are generally cheaper to transact.
However, unlike 2017 and 2021, this year, this ecosystem saw the implementation of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and new applications boosting these metrics. Thus, it is harder to determine if the current rally can reach similar levels than in previous years as the BTC DeFi ecosystem attracts more users looking to leverage the network for utility rather than long-term investing.
BTC DeFi Makes A Difference In Key BTC Metric? A Chat With The Team Behind “Leather”
The surge in BTC on-chain activity could be attributed to the cyclical nature of the crypto market. When the price of BTC and others rise, or there is an expectation of further profits, more users on-board the network.
As a result, the number of transactions recorded increases. However, many believe that with the implementation of NFTs in the BTC ecosystem, transaction activity can no longer be attributed to a new bullish cycle.
If so, rising activity metrics could become useless when measuring the sustainability of a BTC rally. To answer this question, we spoke with Mark Hendrickson, a General Manager at Trust Machines, a company working on a Bitcoin DeFi wallet. This is what he told us:
What is “Leather,” and what is your goal in the Bitcoin ecosystem?
A: Leather is a web3 wallets built around Bitcoin based technologies and applications. And so you can think of Leather, simply put as MetaMask for Bitcoin in the sense that we want to provide a robust user experience for connecting to applications built with Bitcoin and Bitcoin layers in which users can do a lot of the same sort of things that they can concurrently only do on smart contracts enabled L1 chains, but to do them actually on Bitcoin.
So, Leather has the ability to connect the applications, identify yourself to those applications based on your Bitcoin addresses and your associated assets with those applications prompts for signed transactions that are essentially actions for those applications and to do so across layers. (…) We also want to facilitate the movement of liquidity between L1 and L2 (networks) and do so in a very seamless manner.
A lot of people, for many reasons, are unfamiliar with the Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem. Can you tell us more about it, and what is Leather’s role in it? Also, what do you say to users who want Bitcoin to remain unchanged, the way it has been since its inception in 2009?
A: Bitcoin based DeFi, I’d say is generally taking place these days or sort of emerging in two places. You have primitives for Bitcoin based divide on Bitcoin itself. That’s an L1 (Layer one), mostly driven by Ordinals and within Ordinals fungible token standards like BRC 20. And then you have also Bitcoin related taking place on Layer2 like Stacks that have smart contract functionality. (…) most of that’s taking place via Ordinals on the layers. It’s taking place mostly through the native smart contracting capabilities of those layers.
To the question of people who want Bitcoin to remain unchanged, I think that the folks who are working on Bitcoin-related functionality, I’d say Bitcoin web3 in general, which includes DeFi. We’re trying actually to do more with Bitcoin without having to change Bitcoin really at all. So actually our general approach is to try to extend what you can do with Bitcoin without having to change it fundamentally because we do, of course, want to respect all the work that’s gone into Bitcoin to date and we’d love the security profile of Bitcoin. And that has to do with taking a relatively conservative approach. And so if you look at Ordinals, for example, which is really an innovation based on taproot introduced fairly recently, there’s a lot of innovation going on as a result of taproot ordinals without having really changed anything else about Bitcoin. It is a design space that is actually quite respectful of Bitcoin as blockchain.
There is a theory that every bull run is preceded by an increase in on-chain activity, with fees following prices on their way to new highs. What do you think of network activity right now? Do you think much of it can now be attributed to Ordinals and other applications?
A: Going back to the start of the year, Ordinals has been a huge exception to the general rule of the crypto bear market because we’ve experienced essentially two bull runs inside of Ordinals itself, which I think have boosted Bitcoin’s position and definitely has boosted network activity on Bitcoin and fee rates have gone up as a result of it. And really shown that this idea of storing data on chain on Bitcoin beyond just simple transactions and applying those primitives to various web3 applications, whether it’s art or whether it’s new token standards, that can have a huge effect on just how Bitcoin is used and also valued. (…) it’s hard for me to really pinpoint any given reason why any given month the Bitcoin may have gone up in price because of other factors, but it, it’s pretty clear that it has an overall effect (on network activity). Ordinals has been a positive influence on the interest in Bitcoin.
ETFs, store of value, Gold 2.0, Halving, and now Bitcoin DeFi, what is the current narrative dominating the BTC market? And which narrative will gain more prominence in the long run?
A: I think the dominant narrative around Bitcoin is probably that in the wake of the last crash, really it’s a spillover from last year. I think there are a lot of weaker technologies, weaker platforms and assets that were shaken out and people ran away from and they’ve taken more safe harbor and Bitcoin come back to Bitcoin as really the one that’s stood the test of time. So that combined with the fact that people, since the start of the year with Ordinals in particular have opened up to that there are more frontiers to what you can do with Bitcoin. I think that combination has really driven sort of a renewed enthusiasm around Bitcoin. It’s a combination of, it’s been around the longest, it’s the most secure, plus it’s not a dinosaur that can’t evolve still. It actually has a lot of potential. It actually has both of those qualities that are very attractive, secure and conservative in one way, but it’s also more innovative and there’s more potential than people had realized before on the other hand.
The price of BTC continues to push higher, and the bullish momentum remains intact as news around the Bitcoin ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) improves overall sentiment. In the wake of the recent rally, some trading firms doubled down on their bullish positions.
As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at $24,200 with sideways movement in the last 24 hours. The cryptocurrency rose by over 20% the previous week, operating as the top performer in the top 10 by market capitalization.
Bitcoin ETF To Trigger Larger Rally: What’s The Target?
Via social media platform X, trading desk QCP Capital disclosed their positions coming into the rally. The firm longed Bitcoin volatility with options contracts, taking some profits on their positions as the cryptocurrency rallied.
Still, the firm remains optimistic, holding on to their calls due to expiry in December. By then, the firm targets a BTC price above $38,000 to $44,000, based on the momentum generated by a potential Bitcoin ETF approval.
In the last week, the news generated by this event has shifted market sentiment, leading investors to a more favorable area. However, the firm remains cautious about the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot Bitcoin ETF in the short term.
QCP Capital stated:
(…) we believe the SEC will avoid playing the role of kingmaker, sticking with its own precedent set during the BTC/ETH futures ETF approval process and will wait to approve multiple managers at the same time. Nonetheless with this bullish break of 32k, we believe the market has started to price in an approval as the base case. The only question now is when the approval will happen.
BTC’s price is approaching 0.38 Fibonacci levels, which hints at a reversal. Source: QCP Capital
SEC To Avoid Kingmaking In Bitcoin ETF Approval.
The trading firm believes the financial instrument will get approved in 2024. The SEC will likely avoid favoring one firm to prevent BlackRock or other asset managers from taking a large portion of the clients and the trading volume, as when the future Bitcoin ETF was approved.
The firm believes the financial instrument could get approved “much later than the market expects now.” As mentioned, investors have begun pricing in any price action associated with the ETF, which could lead BTC to another range until 2024.
The firm cautioned players from taking late long positions:
(…) we are seeing stretched positive perp funding rates especially on Deribit (BTC over 70% and ETH over 100%) as well as elevated short-end ATM vols (BTC up to 75%!) – typically indicative of an exhausted short-term move.
According to one non-fungible token (NFT) researcher on X, the floor prices of some of the largest collections might be up between 10% and 30% in the past few weeks, but that doesn’t mean the markets are preparing for a big bull run.
Taking to X on October 22, “Wale.Swoosh” acknowledged that the markets have been performing well. However, based on several factors, the NFT trading community shouldn’t be excited that the market is ready for a big rally in the coming sessions.
NFT Floor Prices Rising
At spot rates, some of NFTs’ popular and valuable collections, such as the Bored Ape Yacht Collection (BAYC), Mutant Ape Yacht Club (MAYC), and even CryptoPunks, have posted gains in trading volume and floor prices.
To illustrate, the floor price of BAYC is at around 26.19 ETH, up from 23 ETH recorded in late August 2023. Meanwhile, Azuki’s floor price stands at 5.33 ETH, up from 3.41 ETH in late August.
Floor price of top NFT collections| Source: Coingecko
Looking at trends, however, there could be a notable spike in floor price and trading volume in the past week, though trading activity is suppressed. As a demonstration, while BAYC’s floor price is at 26.19 ETH, up roughly 9.8% on the last trading day, there has been no change in the number of owners. There has been a 0.1% increase in new owners for CryptoPunks in the past trading day.
Only a tiny percentage of the bigger NFT collectors or traders showed interest, subsequently buying an item. It suggests that though floor prices are rising, only a few active trading wallets exist.
Crypto Prices Rising, Readying An NFT Bull Run?
The floor price of an NFT is the lowest asking price set for any collection. While this metric changes between collections, it can gauge interest and how the broader crypto community perceives the value of that collection to be. Moreover, since the market determines the floor price, it tends to fluctuate, as evidenced in the last year.
Based on available data and the current market conditions, the researcher didn’t dismiss the odds of floor prices rising even further. Even so, based on the analyst’s view, citing historical performance, floor prices tend to expand at a faster rate only once Ethereum (ETH) and BTC volatility drops.
At spot rates, Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are steadily rising. Bitcoin has already pierced above July 2023 highs, racing above $33,000 as the crypto community expects even more gains. The spike has lifted the markets, channeling more liquidity to crypto, a precursor for a “real NFT bull run” to begin, according to Wale.Swoosh.
The current Bitcoin rally has taken most of the crypto space by surprise after going from under $27,000 to $35,000 in less than two weeks. As prices continue to fly, on-chain data tracker Santiment has revealed something different between the current Bitcoin rally and its previous rallies above $30,000.
Altcoins Refuse To Fall Behind Bitcoin
In the report that was posted on X (formerly Twitter), Santiment revealed that altcoins have changed their usual routine for when the Bitcoin price is surging. For instance, when Bitcoin had rallied to $30,000 in April and July of this year, altcoins had taken a back seat, allowing BTC to enjoy the shine.
This time around, the rally has been just as prominent in altcoins as it has been in Bitcoin, and in some cases, even outshining BTC’s price trajectory. Some of these altcoins that have shown teeth this time include Chainlink’s LINK, Polygon’s MATIC, Aptos’s APT, AAVE, and UIP. All of these altcoins have defied the established trend with their prices surging double-digits in a short time.
Not only are these altcoins seeing a lot of success at a time when Bitcoin would be the only one rallying, but they have also managed to decouple completely from the leading cryptocurrency. According to Santiment, all of the named altcoins “are all seeing their best performing decouplings of 2023.”
Meme Coins Show Their Prowess
As the crypto market rally has progressed through some of its most bullish stages, other altcoins such as meme coins have begun to also show a lot of promise. The usual culprits such as PEPE saw double-digit gains as well, with ELON rallying up to 57%. Additionally, $BITCOIN also saw a $36 rise in one week.
PEPE has continued to surge as well and is up 34.55% in the last day, bringing its weekly gains to 51.49%. The meme coin’s run has seen it emerge as a top gainer, also trending alongside the likes of Bitcoin (BTC) and Chainlink (LINK).
Another altcoin that stands out is Troller’s TRB. The coin rose around 750% in a 3-month period to emerge as one of the winners of the rallies. It also saw large transactions from unique whale addresses, suggesting a very high level of interest in the altcoin from investors.
In all, this rally is completely different from the previous rallies recorded this year in that the whole market seems to be pulling up together. This is interesting because rallies like these are usually seen in bull markets, with 2021 serving as a perfect example.
The flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, is fast approaching $31,000 following its gains over the weekend. Analyzing this price action, crypto analyst Ali Martinez has predicted Bitcoin’s future trajectory as he suggests that the bears could regain dominance soon enough.
A Price Correction Imminent For Bitcoin
In a post shared on his X (formerly Twitter) platform, Martinez noted the potential head-and-shoulders pattern that was forming on the Bitcoin daily chart following its upward trend. This chart pattern has always been considered bearish as it suggests that a trend reversal might be on the horizon, meaning there could be a dip in prices soon enough.
Source: X
Confirming this assumption, Martinez stated that the daily chart (which he shared alongside the post) “hints at a possible sell signal emerging tomorrow [October 23].” According to him, this prediction is backed by the TD Sequential indicator, which is flashing “a green 9 candlestick.” The TD Sequential indicator helps traders identify the exact time of a potential reversal.
Martinez also alluded to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which he mentioned has reached 74.21. He noted that this has been “a level triggering sharp corrections since March.” An RSI of over 70 also suggests that Bitcoin may be overbought with a price correction imminent. This impending price correction can only be averted if Bitcoin manages to clock “a daily candlestick close above $31,560.”
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $30,700, up by over 2% in the last twenty-four hours and a further 10% in the last seven days.
Options Market Could Contribute To Bitcoin’s Upward Momentum
In a post on his X platform, Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research, highlighted the role that options traders (short gammas in particular) could play in driving Bitcoin’s price higher in the short term.
Source: X
He noted that the options market makers in Bitcoin are “increasingly short gamma as BTC spot price moves up.” This current positioning could help “amplify the explosiveness of any short-term upward move in the near term,” considering that these short gammas have to buy more Bitcoin to stay “delta neutral” as Bitcoin’s price continues to rise.
From his analysis, Thorn was simply explaining that the option market makers will have to place ‘buy orders’ to hedge against their short positions as Bitcoin’s price continues to climb, thereby adding to buying pressure, which could cause the crypto’s price to rise higher.
Meanwhile, he believes that the long gammas could provide a safety net for Bitcoin’s price in the event of a price reversal. These long gammas would have to buy back spots in order to remain delta-neutral, thereby providing support and helping resist any further decline (in the short term, at least).
Bitcoin price is gaining pace above the $30,000 resistance. BTC is showing positive signs and might rally further above toward the $31,200 level.
Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $28,500 and $28,800 resistance levels.
The price is trading above $30,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $30,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
The pair could continue to rise toward the $31,200 resistance level.
Bitcoin Price Regains Strength
Bitcoin price formed a support base above the $27,500 level. BTC started a steady increase and cleared a few hurdles near the $28,500 resistance zone.
The bulls gained strength and managed to push the price above the main $30,000 resistance zone. A new multi-week high is formed near $30,600 and the price is now consolidating gains. There was a minor decline below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $29,715 swing low to the $30,600 high.
Bitcoin is now trading above $30,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $30,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The trend line is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $29,715 swing low to the $30,600 high.
On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $30,400 level. The next key resistance could be near $30,600. A clear move above the recent high might send the price toward the $31,200 resistance. The next key resistance could be $32,000. Any more gains might send BTC toward the $33,200 level in the coming sessions.
Are Dips Limited In BTC?
If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $30,600 resistance zone, it could start a downside correction. Immediate support on the downside is near the $30,150 level.
The next major support is near the $30,000 level and the trend line. If there is a move below the trend line support, the price may perhaps decline toward the $29,500 level or the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
Technical indicators:
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone.
Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $30,150, followed by $30,000.
Major Resistance Levels – $30,400, $30,600, and $31,200.
MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings are now in profit again. MicroStrategy is well known to be one of the largest Bitcoin buyers in recent years. The company is such a believer in Bitcoin that it sold some of its stocks to increase its Bitcoin holdings. This would seem extreme to some investors, but as suggested by recent price action, MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy seems to be paying off.
How MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Strategy Is Going
MicroStrategy started investing in Bitcoin in 2020, becoming one of the first companies to do so. The firm started by buying $250 million worth of Bitcoin in August 2020 and hasn’t slowed down since. In its latest move, MicroStrategy acquired approximately 5,445 Bitcoins for approximately $147.3 million between August 1, 2023, and September 24, 2023. According to the company’s purchase filing, as of September 24, 2023, MicroStrategy owns approximately 158,245 Bitcoins bought at an approximate price of $4.68 billion.
On the other hand, Bitcoin has had one of the strongest advances in the crypto market in recent weeks and is now trying to build a strong momentum over $30,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is up by 11.08% in a seven-day timeframe. Although the cryptocurrency is now trading at $29,838, it crossed over $30,000 in multiple instances during the week.
Amidst all this upheaval in the market, MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings have taken a turn for the better in terms of profitability. Given that the total Bitcoin holdings of MicroStrategy were purchased at an average of $29,582 per coin, the company has now achieved a total profit of about $67.4 million with Bitcoin at $30,000.
Bitcoin price nearing the $30K level today. Chart: TradingView.com
A Sturdy Bitcoin Approach?
Bitcoin has been on an incredible run over the past year, massively outpacing the stock market and most other mainstream investments. The cryptocurrency is now in a prime position for a price surge in the coming months. Many financial analysts have hinted that a bull run to a new all-time high for the cryptocurrency could be on the horizon, especially as the industry awaits the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF from the US SEC.
It’s been a while since MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings turned a profit, as Bitcoin has been saddled with various market crashes. According to CryptoQuant data, MicroStrategy benefited massively during the 2021 bull run. But things have been calm since then, with the company only topping up its Bitcoin holdings from time to time.
As it stands, MicroStrategy stands to benefit more than most companies in the event of a new bull run. If Bitcoin reaches $50,000, MicroStrategy’s holdings would be almost double its current worth. The company will likely keep buying more Bitcoin over time as it plans to make Bitcoin a large percentage of its total assets.
Bitcoin’s Lightning Network was designed to make Bitcoin transactions faster and cheaper. But according to a recent discovery by a now former Lightning developer Antoine Riard, there’s a major security flaw in the network that puts users’ funds at risk. Taking to a thread on the Linux Foundation’s public mailing list, Riard detailed the new discovery of a security risk in the Lightning Network that could allow hackers to easily get control of the Layer 2 protocol.
Developer Departs From Bitcoin Lightning Network Over Security Concerns
The Bitcoin Lightning Network is a “layer 2” payment protocol that operates on top of the Bitcoin blockchain. It enables fast, low-cost transactions between participating nodes. Since its inception, the Bitcoin Layer 2 protocol has been well accepted, although various vulnerabilities have been reported.
Users can instantaneously send and receive Bitcoin thanks to the Lightning Network, which facilitates the creation of a network of payment channels between users without waiting for transactions to be confirmed on the blockchain. However, Riard claims that there’s a new malevolent danger out there called the replacement cycling attack, which puts the network in a perilous position.
Cycling attack works by specifically targeting payment channels to steal funds from mempools. These attacks are not easy but can be carried out by very sophisticated players. It essentially works by changing the transaction signature of a victim’s timeout transaction in a mempool by a new transaction without leaving a trace on the network. Although simple cycling attacks can be easily mitigated, Riard warns that a very sophisticated attack could leave payment channels exposed to hackers.
BTC market cap currently at $584.24 billion. Chart: TradingView.com
What This Means For The Future Of The Lightning Network
The vulnerabilities uncovered in the Lightning Network codebase are troubling for the future of Bitcoin’s scalability solution. Riard’s discovery seems to have ruffled a few feathers of Bitcoin investors, as revealed by comments on social media platforms.
In what looks like his second memo on the issue, Riard mentions that addressing the issue may require significant rewrites of critical components of the network’s base layer. Defending against the backdoor may also require modifications to the underlying public Bitcoin ecosystem.
“I think this new class of replacement cycling attacks puts lightning in a very perilous position, where only a sustainable fix can happen at the base-layer, e.g adding a memory-intensive history of all-seen transactions or some consensus upgrade,” Riard said.
One of the top #Bitcoin developers recently discovered a massive security risk in the Lightning Network, which triggered him to announce his departure from the project.
He claims theres intentional backdoors in the code that allow attackers to easily get full control… pic.twitter.com/oLiVXk0A2F
Riard has since stepped down from the development of the Lightning Network, with plans to focus now on Bitcoin core development. Data from DefiLlama shows the TVL of the Lightning Network is now at $159.74 million. Its future of depends on how developers and the Bitcoin community respond to this news. A quick, transparent fix of the vulnerability to restore trust should be the important next step.
On the other hand, the price of Bitcoin just crossed $30,000. Renowned financial author Robert T. Kiyosaki predicts that Bitcoin will reach $135,000 very soon.
The recent surge in Bitcoin’s price over the weekend caught many market observers by surprise. The alpha coin marked a 1.5% gain in the last 24 hours, bringing Bitcoin’s value above the psychologically important $30,000 threshold, which also serves as a key resistance level.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $30,154, up 12% in the last seven days, data from crypto market tracker Coingecko shows. On October 16th, the cryptocurrency briefly spiked to around $30,000 on Binance due to false reports of an approved spot Bitcoin ETF. However, as soon as the truth about these reports came to light, the market swiftly corrected.
Just two days later, Bitcoin once again rallied to $30,000, but it struggled to maintain this crucial level, facing resistance and fluctuations. These multiple attempts indicate the significance of the $30,000 price point as a key battleground for Bitcoin’s near-term price movements.
Influential Factors Behind Bitcoin’s Recent Surge
The recent surge in Bitcoin’s price doesn’t have a clear cause, but it’s likely driven by market optimism surrounding the potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
This optimism is based on the belief that a Bitcoin ETF approval would offer more accessible and regulated exposure to the cryptocurrency, attracting institutional and retail investors and further legitimizing the asset within traditional finance. The anticipation of this regulatory milestone is a key factor influencing Bitcoin’s price at present.
Jebb, a prominent crypto analyst, has examined the 200-weekly simple moving average in Bitcoin trading. Jebb stressed the importance of this moving average as a prediction of Bitcoin’s future bull markets, based on its previous record.
This moving average, he noted, has consistently proven to be a vital and insightful indicator, offering valuable insights into the complex dynamics of Bitcoin’s price movements.
In the video, Jebb dispelled the myth that Bitcoin’s price fell sharply below the 200-weekly moving average in 2022, rendering it obsolete. He maintained that outside variables, like the Federal Reserve’s artificially inflated 2021 price of Bitcoin, had an impact on the decline.
He emphasized that these exceptional circumstances played a pivotal role in the 2022 downturn, underscoring that the 200-weekly moving average remains a valuable metric for predicting Bitcoin’s future trajectories, given the return to more typical market conditions.
Bullish Signals For Bitcoin’s Future
According to Jebb’s analysis, in the absence of intervention from the US central bank, the price of Bitcoin would have experienced a surge to around $50,000 instead of $70,000, followed by a correction to approximately $20,000 as opposed to $27,000.
All of these criteria support a Bitcoin bull market. Jebb predicted that Bitcoin might rise $50,000 to $70,000 in six months based on his findings. This estimate gives Bitcoin’s price growth potential an extra boost by taking into account the April 2024 halving event.
Moreover, the analyst went on to introduce a diverse array of technical indicators that strengthen the prospect of an impending bull market for Bitcoin. Among these indicators, he drew attention to the weekly chart’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Lux Algo signals.
In a recent CNBC report, Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, expressed confidence in the approval of a US-based Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Paul Grewal, Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer, highlighted that the SEC’s recent court setback in the case of Grayscale’s proposed Bitcoin ETF has paved the way for a potential approval in the coming months.
Coinbase Eyes Bitcoin ETF Approval
Grewal emphasized that Coinbase is hopeful about the approval of ETF applications due to their compliance with existing laws governing financial services. Grewal noted that prominent financial institutions have submitted robust proposals, indicating progress in the regulatory landscape.
The recent court ruling against the SEC stated that the regulator lacked a valid basis to deny Grayscale’s request to convert its GBTC Bitcoin fund into an ETF.
The SEC chose not to appeal the ruling within the specified deadline, further increasing the likelihood of a BTC-related ETF gaining approval shortly.
However, Grewal acknowledged that the ultimate decision rests with the SEC, and he refrained from providing a specific timeline for the approval process.
Nevertheless, Grewal expressed confidence in the SEC’s obligation to fulfill its responsibilities, particularly in light of the court’s decision and the requirement to apply the law impartially.
This could be particularly attractive to retail investors seeking Bitcoin exposure without the complexities of owning the underlying asset.
Per the report, Coinbase, being the largest crypto exchange in the United States, stands to benefit from the potential approval of a BTC ETF. The company’s common stock is held in portfolios designed to provide investors with crypto exposure.
Legal Troubles Mount For Grayscale’s Parent Company
While the recent court ruling has bolstered prospects for a BTC ETF, it is important to note that Grayscale’s bid to convert GBTC into an ETF is not without its challenges.
Digital Currency Group (DCG), Grayscale’s parent company, along with crypto exchange Gemini and DCG subsidiary Genesis, face a lawsuit from the New York Attorney General, accusing them of defrauding investors of over $1 billion.
Despite the ongoing legal issues, Grewal remained positive about the approval of additional Bitcoin ETFs in the future as the SEC adheres to the law and evaluates pending applications neutrally.
The report also touched upon the recent performance of BTC, which has experienced a resurgence in 2023. With a 72% year-to-date increase, Bitcoin has rebounded from significant declines in 2022.
Factors such as anticipation surrounding the upcoming BTC halving event and investor reactions to the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate policy changes have contributed to increased demand for the digital currency.
Ultimately while trading volumes have declined recently, attributed partly to retail investors’ reduced engagement in response to low volatility and industry players’ challenges, Grewal expressed optimism that various developments, including criminal trials and rigorous regulatory actions, will restore investor and consumer interest in the crypto market.
As the landscape for Bitcoin ETFs evolves, market participants will closely monitor the SEC’s stance and any potential regulatory developments that shape the future of cryptocurrency investment products.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has amended its prospectus for the spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) with the stringent United States Securities and Exchange (SEC), according to a report on October 18.
Specific changes made on their iShares Bitcoin Trust submitted by the asset manager include acknowledging the intense competition in the race for approval. The applicant said there was no assurance that their product would find instant market acceptance and scale due to competition should it be endorsed. They also explained its pricing structure and reporting mechanism.
Changes to its prospectus come roughly a month after BlackRock re-submitted its application in July 2023. Then, the applicant divulged the monitoring agreement they had sealed with Nasdaq and Coinbase Custody. BlackRock now joins Ark Invest and Fidelity, who also had to make changes for clarity.
As it is, Fidelity is the other notable applicant. The financial institution has been pro-Bitcoin over the years. In 2020, Fidelity added the option for corporate clients to invest in Bitcoin through their 401(k) retirement plans.
This year, Fidelity introduced a Bitcoin trading platform for individual investors. In June 2023, Fidelity refiled paperwork with the SEC for its Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust. However, Fidelity also had to revise its application, stating the risks associated with the complex Bitcoin derivative product.
Is A BTC And Crypto Rally Inevitable?
The crypto community is upbeat and expects the SEC to approve multiple spot Bitcoin ETF applications submitted by the top brass in traditional finance in the next few months, probably in 2024. However, the exact timing remains tentative, a cause of anxiety in the community.
A spot Bitcoin ETF will directly track Bitcoin prices, allowing investors to trade its listed shares on a regulated exchange. Subsequently, this would make it much easier for clients, especially institutions, to gain exposure to Bitcoin without necessarily buying and storing coins. A former BlackRock executive predicted the Bitcoin market to attract at least $150 billion in three years once the SEC authorizes one or several products.
On October 19, Bitcoin prices briefly rallied above $28,500, aligning with gains of October 16. Still, whether the spike could be tied to BlackRock amending its prospectus or the general optimism in the broader crypto and Bitcoin community is unclear.
The false news of the SEC approving the first Bitcoin ETF early this week forced prices higher. The coin soared above $30,000 at its peaks before cooling off to spot rates.
Source: X
