Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency on the market, has again failed to consolidate and reach the $38,000 level for the third time, as it is currently experiencing a 3% pullback. This has led the community to speculate that a significant retracement may occur before the bullish momentum resumes and the next uptrend begins.
However, renowned crypto analyst Adrian Zduńczyk has recently shed light on Bitcoin’s potential next target of $50,000. Zduńczyk’s analysis considers several crucial factors, including the prevailing bullish market sentiment, the ongoing uptrend, the short-term outlook, miner sentiment, and seasonal trends.
Evidence Of Dominant Bull Market
Zduńczyk notes that the cryptocurrency industry is in a bull market, with Bitcoin reaching a new 52-week high close and experiencing the third wave of the bullish cycle. The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has risen, indicating a favorable environment for Bitcoin. High time frame trends are also rising.
Zduńczyk identifies key macro support levels for Bitcoin at $29,000 and $27,000, highlighting growing demand fueled by the anticipation of the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the upcoming halving event expected in April 2024.
Notably, the daily chart for BTC remains in an uptrend, according to Zduńczyk. He points to a target of $40,000, supported by the appearance of a “golden cross” pattern.
Furthermore, Zduńczyk believes that the rising Simple Moving Average (SMA) 200 serves as “irrefutable evidence” of a dominant bull market since January. These indicators suggest a continuation of the upward trajectory for Bitcoin.
Zduńczyk also identifies key support levels at $35,000 to $35,800, emphasizing that a bullish sentiment prevails as long as Bitcoin remains above these levels.
Zduńczyk Eyes Bitcoin November Target Of $50,000
Currently, Bitcoin is ranging between $35,500 and $38,000, Zduńczyk notes that the momentum bands are widening, indicating an increase in volatility. The rising 50-day Average True Range (ATR) trend supports this observation.
Fear & Greed Index stands at 69, indicating a mixed sentiment among market participants. Miners, on average, are enjoying a profit increase of 23%. Zduńczyk maintains a positive outlook based on these factors.
Regarding seasonal trends, October demonstrated a gain of 27%, exceeding the average performance. Historically, November has been the best month for Bitcoin, which has an average gain of 43%, with a target of around $50,000. Notably, December typically adds 7% to November’s closing price.
Currently, BTC is trading at $36,400, reflecting a 5% and 22% profit over the past fourteen and thirty days, respectively. The focus now shifts to whether BTC’s price can maintain its crucial support levels and sustain its bullish uptrend, potentially reaching the $50,000 milestone supported by historical patterns.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
In a historical moment for both the nation and the crypto community, Argentina has ushered in a new era by welcoming its first-ever pro-Bitcoin President.
Argentina Elects Pro Bitcoin President
On November 19, Argentina released the results of its presidential election. Reports of the election results reveal that right-wing libertarian and Bitcoin advocate, Javier Milei won almost 56% out of 90% of votes counted. While his rival candidate, Minister Sergio Massa garnered 44% of the votes.
The momentous victory positions Milei as the face of a new era in Argentina, marked by his stated commitment to solving inflationary problems in the country by abolishing the country’s Central Bank and using digital currencies like Bitcoin.
In a public victory speech to his supporters in Buenos Aires, Milei declared that the transformative process of Argentina had just begun and the country was on its way to economic recovery. He promised to work with all the nations to help develop Argentina and make it a better country.
“Today begins the reconstruction of Argentina. Today begins the end of Argentina’s decline. The model of decadence has come to an end. There is no way back,” Milei stated.
He further added that “Argentina will return to its place in the world that it should never have lost. We are going to work shoulder-to-shoulder with all nations of the free world, to help build a better world.”
Former President of the United States, Donald Trump commended Milei on securing victory in the Argentinian Presidential election. He expressed his pride in Milei’s incredible feat and stated his anticipation for Milei’s efforts in restoring Argentina.
“Congratulations to Javier Milei on a great race for President of Argentina. The whole world was watching! I am very proud of you. You will turn your Country around and truly Make Argentina Great Again,” Trump stated.
BTC Price Surges As Argentina Embraces New Era Of Crypto
Following the news of Javier Milei’s victory in Argentina’s Presidential elections, Bitcoin price has been on an upward trend, trading above the $37,000 mark. The price of the cryptocurrency at the time of writing is $37,199 according to CoinMarketCap.
One of Milei’s primary policy plans as Argentina’s President is to discontinue the use of the Argentinian peso and adopt the United States Dollar as the country’s main currency. He has also mulled over the introduction of Bitcoin as a potential legal tender and declared possibilities of launching a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in Argentina.
While the proposals aim to significantly reduce the long-lasting inflationary crisis in the Argentinian economy, the involvement of Bitcoin could potentially herald a new wave of economic growth for the crypto industry.
The Bitcoin open interest can often be an indication of where the BTC price might be headed next depending on whether or not the metric is rising or falling. This time around, the Bitcoin open interest has risen drastically, hitting 19-month highs in the process. Using historical data, it is possible to extrapolate what this means for the crypto’s price, especially as investors remain very bullish.
Bitcoin Open Interest Surges To $17.04 Billion
In an interesting turn of events, the Bitcoin open interest has been rising quickly across various exchanges. In the last 24 hours alone, this metric rose by a cumulative 7.89% across all exchanges in the space, bringing the total open interest to 454,150 BTC worth a staggering $17.04 billion.
For now, most of the Bitcoin open interest is concentrated across the CME, Binance, and ByBit exchanges. But perhaps what is even more interesting is that these open interest levels represent a 19-month high.
Source: CoinGlass
According to the data presented on the CoinGlass website, the last time that the Bitcoin open interest moved in this fashion and to this high was back in March 2022, before the historical Terra LUNA crash that sent the market into a prolonged bear market stretch.
This means that the last time that the Bitcoin open interest rose this much was during a time when investors were still very much in the throes of bull run euphoria. As such, the historical performance of the BTC price back then in relation to the open interest could serve as a guide to what might happen to the digital asset’s price next.
Similar to the current trend, the Bitcoin open interest had surged from around 38,000 BTC to over 44,000 BTC in the space of a month, and the BTC price followed quickly. This trend saw the price rise in March 2022 from $38,700 to over $47,000 before the month was over.
Going by this historical performance and assuming Bitcoin sticks to this trend, the rally may be far from over. The BTC price is also sitting at a similar price point at $37,500 and a similar surge could bring its price toward $45,000 before the month is over.
However, there is also the possibility that the open interest could peak at this level and begin to decline. Once this happens, then in the same fashion as in April 2022, the BTC price could begin to decline as the open interest drops. A similar crash would send the price back down toward $27,000.
Popular crypto analyst Don Alt has joined the bandwagon of predictions pertaining to Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Don Alt recently took to social media platform X to convey a strong bullish Bitcoin price sentiment, issuing a forecast that the cryptocurrency is on the verge of going supersonic to $60,000 in the coming months.
Even a $100,000 price point is not out of the books, according to this analyst. The catalyst for this potential liftoff? The long-awaited approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF in the US.
Bitcoin’s Supersonic Rally to $60,000
Don Alt is known for accurately predicting Bitcoin price points in the past and correctly pinpointed the crypto’s lowest price point in 2022. Now, Don Alt is of the notion that Bitcoin is poised for a massive price surge in the coming months that could send it soaring to $60,000.
It’s no news that this recent rally is due to the excitement around the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the analyst thinks this rally will continue until a $60,000 price point. The digital currency is already up by 121% since the beginning of the year and has broken multiple yearly highs in the past month.
The longer the SEC takes to approve the applications, the higher the rally will continue in anticipation. However, the analyst took a different line of thinking and considered the likelihood of a price decrease after the approval.
Don Alt mentioned that the approval might turn into a “sell the news moment,” implying that there might be many more bears waiting to take advantage of the price jump to sell off than the market thinks.
“Now, after the ETF gets approved, things might get a bit tricky. It could be a ‘sell-the-news’ moment, or maybe not. To be honest, I don’t know,” Don Alt said.
This line of reasoning resonates with economist Peter Schiff, who warned that approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs might lead to a Bitcoin price decline. Schiff also believes that there could be a larger number of people sitting on their assets in anticipation of an opportunity to sell at a higher price.
On-chain data shows that large investors have been selling off in light of profit-taking. Bitcoin whales and sharks have sold around 60,000 BTC, worth about $2.2 billion in the past week.
Bitcoin Price To $100,000?
Don Alt dismissed bearish sentiments, particularly those waiting for a Bitcoin pullback to $12,000. “BTC is more likely to go to $100,000 here than it is to go back to $12,000,” he said.
The SEC is slated to decide on 12 ETF applications by November 17, although they might not be approved until January 2024.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s rally has slowed down, and the asset has consolidated just below and above the $37,000 price point.
The cryptocurrency industry has experienced significant growth in recent weeks with an influx of capital. This influx of capital has forced Bitcoin over various price resistances, with the latest being a brief cross over the $37,000 level. MicroStrategy has emerged as a prominent public company that has successfully capitalized on this price push.
MicroStrategy’s blockbuster bet on the world’s largest cryptocurrency has certainly paid off so far. The company has posted over $1 billion in unrealized profit thanks to Bitcoin’s 36% increase from $26,750 since October 13. Shares of MicroStrategy have also risen simultaneously, soaring more than 55% since the same time period.
MicroStrategy’s Bold Bitcoin Bet Paying Off
MicroStrategy started buying in Bitcoin in 2020 but the latest acquisition came in October, amidst the influx of money into Bitcoin, where the company announced it had acquired an additional 155 BTC for $5.3 million.
MicroStrategy now owns a total of 158,245 BTC, acquired at an average total value of $4.68 billion. At BTC’s current price of around $36,500, MicroStrategy’s BTC investment is now worth over $5.77 billion, representing an unrealized 26% return of $1.1 billion in around three years.
The company’s investment in Bitcoin has also paid off on the back end of its stock price, as it has outperformed many stocks and assets since the adoption of its Bitcoin strategy. The share price has shot up 242% from its open price of $145 at the beginning of the year.
At the time of writing, MicroStrategy share is trading at $497, and Michael Saylor noted that this growth has been largely in part to its innovative Bitcoin strategy.
MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor has been an outspoken proponent of Bitcoin. Saylor’s belief in Bitcoin spearheaded MicroStrategy’s investment in the asset, and a cursory look through his social media page on X shows various posts promoting Bitcoin.
Saylor recently stated, in an interview with Fox Business, that MicroStrategy’s BTC investments were part of a well-planned strategy to rival tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and Apple.
“What we did in August of 2020 was recognize that there’s no way we’re going to outgrow Google and Microsoft and Apple Computer as a mid-sized software company. We realized Bitcoin is like a high-tech dominant digital network growing at 40% or 50% a year, and so we bought it,” he said in the interview.
Saylor also expects the demand for BTC to double in the next 12 months amidst its next halving and the approvals of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. Ultimately, he believes that the price of BTC will eventually reach $5 million.
MicroStrategy isn’t the only company with Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Public companies now own a total of 239,494 BTC, representing 1.23% of the total supply. Marathon Digital, Galaxy Digital, and Tesla are a few of these companies, holding 13,286, 12,545, and 10,500 BTC, respectively.
Featured image from MicroStrategy, chart from Tradingview.com
The Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, Jurrien Timmer, recently provided insights into the potential of the flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and went as far as labeling the crypto token as “exponential gold.”
A Glance At Bitcoin’s Adoption Curve
In a post released on his X (formerly Twitter) platform, Timmer mentioned that Bitcoin’s scarcity and adoption curve potentially allow it to be a “high-powered hedge against monetary shenanigans,” likely alluding to the fact that the token’s features make it a great option to hedge against inflation. That is why he sees the token as “exponential gold.”
Source: X
He further elaborated on Bitcoin’s adoption curve, stating that it has so far followed a “typical S-curve shape,” which places it in good company with other major innovations that went through such an adoption journey. One of them is mobile phones, as Timmer noted that Bitcoin’s adoption curve in 2020 resembled that of mobile phones in the ‘80s and ‘90s.
Source: X
Bitcoin, however, seems to have moved to another stage in the adoption curve, as Timmer stated that the “real-rate narrative changed from dovish in 2020 to hawkish in 2022.” He further suggested that Bitcoin has moved past the stage of a rapid rise as its adoption curve has flattened out. With this, Timmer believes that it now shares similarities with the adoption curve of the internet in the 2000s as the crypto token “has not made much progress since 2021.”
Bitcoin Volatility: Good Or Bad?
In a subsequent post, Timmer put Bitcoin’s volatility in perspective as he compared it with other asset classes. First, he shared a risk-reward chart for the pandemic and post-pandemic era ranging from 2020 to this year. The SPX seemed to provide the best risk-reward with close to 24% return.
Source: X
Timmer then went on to share another chart, which included Bitcoin this time around. The foremost cryptocurrency notably stood out from the rest, as he mentioned that Bitcoin was “in a different universe,” with a 58% return.
Source: X
Bitcoin’s high volatility seems to have contributed to such returns in no small way, as Timmer mentioned that the crypto token’s huge drawdowns also come with large gains. To drive home his point, he shared another chart that showed drawdowns and rallies, which various asset classes have experienced from their 2-year high and low, respectively.
Source: X
The chart showed that Bitcoin experienced a 54% drawdown from its two-year high but is also up by 84% from its low in the same period.
This is more impressive when one considers how other asset classes have fared in the same period as Timmer stated that Government bonds “can’t hold a candle” to Bitcoin’s risk-reward math.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has taken legal action against Bitcoin Magazine, alleging that the publication’s parody merchandise infringes on its image and trademarks.
The dispute revolves around using the FedNow Service image and trademark in merchandise sold by Bitcoin Magazine, which aims to critique the surveillance capabilities of the FedNow system and its potential impact on civil liberties.
Bitcoin Magazine has responded with an open letter, asserting its First Amendment rights and refusing to comply with the cease-and-desist request.
Fed Accuses Bitcoin Magazine Of Unauthorized Infringement
According to Bitcoin Magazine, the US Federal Reserve has initiated legal proceedings in response to the publication’s parody merchandise.
The central bank claims that the merchandise, which uses the FedNow Service image and trademark, constitutes unauthorized infringement and misleading association with the Federal Reserve.
In an open letter penned to the Federal Reserve Financial Services’s Deputy General Counsel, Bitcoin Magazine’s editor-in-chief, Mark Goodwin, expressed gratitude for the inquiry while asserting the publication’s refusal to comply with the cease-and-desist request.
Goodwin highlighted concerns regarding the FedNow system’s potential infringement on civil liberties and emphasized the publication’s First Amendment rights to criticize and parody the system.
First Amendment Battle
Bitcoin Magazine firmly believes that its parody merchandise falls within protected speech under the First Amendment. It argues that the imagery used serves as social commentary, specifically critiquing the surveillance aspects associated with the FedNow system.
The publication maintains that its readership would not associate Bitcoin Magazine with the Federal Reserve and that no confusion or deception is intended. Goodwin further claimed:
We do not believe that anyone that is familiar with our editorial guidelines and general stance on the world would ever associate Bitcoin Magazine with the Federal Reserve. We agree with your assertion that “no such association or relationship exists.” We look forward to defending our First Amendment rights, and the opportunity to make clear to all Americans the difference between the open, free, and decentralized financial system that is Bitcoin, and the centralized FedNow system that threatens our nation’s founding values.
The legal dispute between the US Federal Reserve and Bitcoin Magazine over parody merchandise sold by the publication highlights the clash between intellectual property rights and freedom of speech.
Bitcoin Magazine asserts its First Amendment rights to criticize and parody the FedNow system, emphasizing the importance of open dialogue and the distinction between the publication and the Federal Reserve.
The outcome of this legal battle will have implications for the boundaries of protected speech and the ability to critique public institutions.
After a brief rally to the mid-$35,000 level, Bitcoin (BTC) has again pulled back, falling below this threshold and failing to establish a strong consolidation above it. Currently, the market’s leading cryptocurrency is trading at $34,700, down 0.5% over the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
In a recent development, another proposed Spot Bitcoin ETF has been listed on the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation’s (DTCC) website, becoming the second proposed Spot Bitcoin ETF to appear on the corporation’s website.
BTCO Joins IBTC On DTCC Website
The Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF under the ticker ‘BTCO’ recently appeared on the DTCC website, joining BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, which goes under the ticker ‘IBTC’ as uncertainty around a possible approval of these funds continues to heighten.
Source: DTCC website
Many had speculated an approval was imminent when BlackRock’s IBTC was earlier listed. However, the optimism has sort of cooled off following a recent revelation by a spokesperson for the financial services company. The representative clarified that the listing of these ETFs was simply “Standard Practice” and that it doesn’t indicate any potential approval by the SEC.
An ETF expert had also weighed in and stated that DTCC’s listing didn’t mean anything in the grand scheme of things regarding a possible approval of Bitcoin ETFs by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Going by this, the DTCC listing only suggests that these asset managers are preparing just in case they get approved by the SEC.
Such preparations also include asset managers BlackRock and VanEck recently revealing their plans to begin seeding for their respective funds. While such a move doesn’t guarantee that the SEC is likely to approve these funds anytime soon, it, however, shows the optimism of these firms that their Spot Bitcoin ETF will launch sooner or later.
Valkyrie Joins The Spot Bitcoin ETF Amendment Train
In a post shared on his X (formerly Twitter) platform, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart noted that the asset management firm Valkyrie had joined the “prospectus amendment train” with the latest filing of their revised Spot Bitcoin ETF prospectus. Valkyrie joins the likes of ARK Invest, BlackRock, Fidelity, and Bitwise, who have also filed amendments to their prospectus.
Seyffart happens to be one of those who believe that these amendments could mean something. ARK Invest was the first asset manager to amend its prospectus, which led Seyffart and fellow Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas to predict that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could approve a fund as early as next year.
Meanwhile, it is worth mentioning that the SEC has so far not said anything regarding Grayscale’s application despite the Commission opting not to file an appeal. But that could change soon as ETF enthusiast and prominent financial lawyer Scott Johnsson said that the Commission is set to have a closed meeting on November 2; its first since the Grayscale deadline expired, and one of the agenda for the meeting includes resolving litigation claims.
The Bitcoin price has been on a mesmeric run in the past few weeks, largely due to talks of the potential approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF (exchange-traded fund) in the United States. And there has been broad commentary about what is to come for the premier cryptocurrency should the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) greenlight the current applications for a spot ETF.
Cantor Fitzgerald, a prominent investment and brokerage firm, is amongst the latest entities to weigh in on the possibility and the potential impact of a Bitcoin spot ETF in the United States.
Here’s Why Cantor Fitzgerald Thinks Bitcoin Spot ETF Will Be Approved
According to a Bloomberg report, Josh Siegler and Will Carlson, research analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald, are becoming “increasingly confident” that the highly-anticipated Bitcoin spot ETF would receive the approval of the SEC in the US.
The Cantor Fitzgerald analysts believe that the SEC, which has been reluctant to approve the Bitcoin investment product due to various market concerns, is now more likely to greenlight the modified and newly filed applications.
The report highlighted that “a comprehensive surveillance-sharing agreement with a regulated market of significant size” might force the hands of the SEC. Interestingly, all the pending spot ETF filings appear to now include a surveillance-sharing agreement in order to detect and address market irregularities.
Furthermore, Cantor’s analysts mentioned the recent ruling in favor of Grayscale, which overturned the SEC’s rejection of the asset manager’s proposal to convert its Bitcoin trust into an ETF. Siegler and Carlson added:
Ultimately, the court found that the SEC failed to explain why it approved Bitcoin futures ETFs, but rejected Grayscale’s spot offering, despite substantial evidence that the two products are similar, across several regulatory factors.
Finally, Siegler and Carlson believe “a Bitcoin spot ETF approval is the most important short-term catalyst for Bitcoin’s price.” To support this assertion, the analysts cited the latest price rally by the premier cryptocurrency, which all began with an erroneous headline that BlackRock’s ETF had been approved.
The Cantor Fitzgerald analysts added:
The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US will be “a bedrock moment” for Bitcoin’s long-term adoption and legitimization.
Bitcoin Price Overview
As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $34,104, with a negligible 0.2% increase in the past 24 hours. The market leader has been moving mostly sideways since failing to close above $35,000 – its highest level in almost 18 months – earlier this week.
Nevertheless, BTC has maintained a huge portion of its profit on the weekly timeframe, with a substantial 13.2% gain in the past seven days. Meanwhile, the premier cryptocurrency has jumped nearly 27% in the past two weeks, according to CoinGecko data.
Bitcoin price thickens on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
The price of Bitcoin stands firm around the critical area of $34,000, hinting at further bullish potential. However, market analysts wonder if enough clues point to the upside or if BTC will return to $20,000.
As of this writing, BTC trades at $34,150 with sideways movement in the last 24 hours. The cryptocurrency recorded a 15% profit the previous week and remains a top coin performer by market cap.
Bitcoin On-Chain Activity Rises Hinting At A Bull Run?
Data from the analytics platform mempool.space shows an increase in on-chain activity on the Bitcoin network. This spike occurred in February 2023, when BTC transactions rose above 50 Mega Virtual bytes (MvB).
According to the analytics platform, the above metric measures the size of transactions and blocks on the BTC network. The larger the transaction, the more space they required.
As seen in the chart below, each time there is a rise in the price of BTC, there is a surge of activity leading to the rally. This happened in 2017, and 2021, and it is happening this year, which suggests the ecosystem is blooming, onboarding more users, and preparing for a more significant rally like in the previous year.
BTC on-chain activity on the rise in 2023, increase precedes market rally? Source: mempool.space
In addition to the increase in activity, it is possible to see the decline in the metric during the bear market and conclude bull markets record high activity. In contrast, the bear market records much less user activity, and they are generally cheaper to transact.
However, unlike 2017 and 2021, this year, this ecosystem saw the implementation of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and new applications boosting these metrics. Thus, it is harder to determine if the current rally can reach similar levels than in previous years as the BTC DeFi ecosystem attracts more users looking to leverage the network for utility rather than long-term investing.
BTC DeFi Makes A Difference In Key BTC Metric? A Chat With The Team Behind “Leather”
The surge in BTC on-chain activity could be attributed to the cyclical nature of the crypto market. When the price of BTC and others rise, or there is an expectation of further profits, more users on-board the network.
As a result, the number of transactions recorded increases. However, many believe that with the implementation of NFTs in the BTC ecosystem, transaction activity can no longer be attributed to a new bullish cycle.
If so, rising activity metrics could become useless when measuring the sustainability of a BTC rally. To answer this question, we spoke with Mark Hendrickson, a General Manager at Trust Machines, a company working on a Bitcoin DeFi wallet. This is what he told us:
What is “Leather,” and what is your goal in the Bitcoin ecosystem?
A: Leather is a web3 wallets built around Bitcoin based technologies and applications. And so you can think of Leather, simply put as MetaMask for Bitcoin in the sense that we want to provide a robust user experience for connecting to applications built with Bitcoin and Bitcoin layers in which users can do a lot of the same sort of things that they can concurrently only do on smart contracts enabled L1 chains, but to do them actually on Bitcoin.
So, Leather has the ability to connect the applications, identify yourself to those applications based on your Bitcoin addresses and your associated assets with those applications prompts for signed transactions that are essentially actions for those applications and to do so across layers. (…) We also want to facilitate the movement of liquidity between L1 and L2 (networks) and do so in a very seamless manner.
A lot of people, for many reasons, are unfamiliar with the Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem. Can you tell us more about it, and what is Leather’s role in it? Also, what do you say to users who want Bitcoin to remain unchanged, the way it has been since its inception in 2009?
A: Bitcoin based DeFi, I’d say is generally taking place these days or sort of emerging in two places. You have primitives for Bitcoin based divide on Bitcoin itself. That’s an L1 (Layer one), mostly driven by Ordinals and within Ordinals fungible token standards like BRC 20. And then you have also Bitcoin related taking place on Layer2 like Stacks that have smart contract functionality. (…) most of that’s taking place via Ordinals on the layers. It’s taking place mostly through the native smart contracting capabilities of those layers.
To the question of people who want Bitcoin to remain unchanged, I think that the folks who are working on Bitcoin-related functionality, I’d say Bitcoin web3 in general, which includes DeFi. We’re trying actually to do more with Bitcoin without having to change Bitcoin really at all. So actually our general approach is to try to extend what you can do with Bitcoin without having to change it fundamentally because we do, of course, want to respect all the work that’s gone into Bitcoin to date and we’d love the security profile of Bitcoin. And that has to do with taking a relatively conservative approach. And so if you look at Ordinals, for example, which is really an innovation based on taproot introduced fairly recently, there’s a lot of innovation going on as a result of taproot ordinals without having really changed anything else about Bitcoin. It is a design space that is actually quite respectful of Bitcoin as blockchain.
There is a theory that every bull run is preceded by an increase in on-chain activity, with fees following prices on their way to new highs. What do you think of network activity right now? Do you think much of it can now be attributed to Ordinals and other applications?
A: Going back to the start of the year, Ordinals has been a huge exception to the general rule of the crypto bear market because we’ve experienced essentially two bull runs inside of Ordinals itself, which I think have boosted Bitcoin’s position and definitely has boosted network activity on Bitcoin and fee rates have gone up as a result of it. And really shown that this idea of storing data on chain on Bitcoin beyond just simple transactions and applying those primitives to various web3 applications, whether it’s art or whether it’s new token standards, that can have a huge effect on just how Bitcoin is used and also valued. (…) it’s hard for me to really pinpoint any given reason why any given month the Bitcoin may have gone up in price because of other factors, but it, it’s pretty clear that it has an overall effect (on network activity). Ordinals has been a positive influence on the interest in Bitcoin.
ETFs, store of value, Gold 2.0, Halving, and now Bitcoin DeFi, what is the current narrative dominating the BTC market? And which narrative will gain more prominence in the long run?
A: I think the dominant narrative around Bitcoin is probably that in the wake of the last crash, really it’s a spillover from last year. I think there are a lot of weaker technologies, weaker platforms and assets that were shaken out and people ran away from and they’ve taken more safe harbor and Bitcoin come back to Bitcoin as really the one that’s stood the test of time. So that combined with the fact that people, since the start of the year with Ordinals in particular have opened up to that there are more frontiers to what you can do with Bitcoin. I think that combination has really driven sort of a renewed enthusiasm around Bitcoin. It’s a combination of, it’s been around the longest, it’s the most secure, plus it’s not a dinosaur that can’t evolve still. It actually has a lot of potential. It actually has both of those qualities that are very attractive, secure and conservative in one way, but it’s also more innovative and there’s more potential than people had realized before on the other hand.
Predicting the Bitcoin price movements and when altcoin prices will rally again is not a small feat but one analyst has managed to do so. Crypto analyst TonyTheBull has been calling for a bull market, saying that this cycle differs from previous ones in the fact that there will be a rally this year.
This proved to be true last week when the price of Bitcoin started surging and hit as high as $35,100. Now the analyst has called the next altcoin to outperform, and it already is.
Fetch (FET) Is Next Altcoin In Line
In the latest iteration of the CoinChartist (VIP) newsletter, crypto analyst TonyTheBull revealed that Fetch (FET) was his next pick after the Bitcoin breakout. He revealed that he had previously bought FET which ended up outperforming in January, and believes the same will be the case here as well.
FET which is one of the top AI-powered crypto tokens is already on the rise after the analyst called it at the $0.24 level. TonyTheBull also posits that a Raging Bull indicator flipping on would be able to confirm further upside. “Waiting for the Raging Bull to turn on would help confirm increased bullishness in the altcoin,” the newsletter read.
The Raging Bull Indicator, explained the analyst, “was designed using the Relative Strength Index to help indicate when Bitcoin or other assets are in a bull market, and more importantly, and impulsive like trend.” Basically, this indicator helps to show the strength of a cryptocurrency.
Looking at FET’s performance since the call, it has already climbed over 30% and is now trading above $0.3, hitting a local peak of $0.32 on Wednesday.
Despite Bitcoin still looking incredibly bullish on the charts, the analyst points out some altcoins that have had their Raging Bull Indicators turned on this year as well. The first on the list is Solana whose indicator turned on for the first time since 2022. Following this, the digital asset went on a massive run but it might not be done.
TonyTheBull revealed that the last time this indicator was turned on, Solana blew up by 500%, and then continued on to do a 17,000% rally. So if it sticks to historical performance, the Solana rally might only be in its early stages.
The next altcoin to appear on the list is Chainlink’s LINK. LINK moved from around $7 to over $11 in a matter of days. But just like Solana, this coin may only be in its early stages. LINK’s Raging Bull Indicator last turned on in 2019 and the coin saw a “700% in the near term, and more than 9,000% in total.” The analyst further added, “This might not be a setup to sleep on.”
Bitcoin saw a brief stall in its rally which triggered a decline back down to $33,700. This decline, seemingly out of nowhere, may have not been random given some developments in the crypto space. As the rally resumes once more, here’s a look at these developments.
The listing would remain off the site for several hours while community members speculated on what could be the cause of this. Around this time, the price of Bitcoin began to fall, seemingly driven by the fact that investors saw the removal of the BlackRock listing as a sign that a Spot Bitcoin ETF wasn’t coming as soon as they expected.
Hours later, Bloomberg Analyst Joe Light revealed that the listing was back up on the site. Apparently, the initial listing and the subsequent ones had carried one small change in detail which was a change in the Create/Redeem section from a “Y” to a “N.”
Another Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart explained that this likely meant that it was to indicate whether the ETF listing was open to creations/redemptions. When Light asked if this change could point out a launch without using that attribute, to which Seyffart said:
“I personally don’t think this means all that much if I’m being honest. Think it indicates Blackrock is getting everything ready to launch if and when they get an SEC approval. And that the N just means it’s not open for create redeem because it’s not live yet.”
The return of the BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF on the DTCC sparked enthusiasm across the space once more than it did before. The price of Bitcoin quickly started to recover and by Wednesday morning, was back above the $34,000 mark once more.
These events outline the importance of a Spot ETF and how it is the major driver behind the most recent price rally. So an approval or a rejection would both have a major impact on the digital asset’s price. For one, an approval would likely see Bitcoin clear above $40,000. However, a rejection would be detrimental to the rally, and will probably send it back below $30,000.
Presently, Bitcoin is maintaining bullish momentum above $34,100. But it is seeing small losses of 0.99% on the 24-hour chart, and its daily trading volume is down 34.58%.
The potential approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to have significant effects on Bitcoin and the Spot Bitcoin ETF market. Addressing what investors can expect, the crypto research firm Galaxy Digital recently provided insights as to what could happen in the first three years upon the launch of this fund.
What To Expect In The First Three Years
In a research paper released on October 24, Galaxy Digital’s research associate Charles Yu provided a vivid illustration of the heights a Spot Bitcoin ETF could attain in terms of market size and inflows in the first three years.
Source: Galaxy Research
As to market size, Yu made his predictions on the addressable market size of a US Bitcoin ETF based on how they expect various wealth channels to adopt the fund. According to him, RIA (Registered Investment Advisor) will ramp up starting at 50% in the first year and increasing to 100% in the third year.
Meanwhile, broker-dealers and bank channels will ramp up at a slower pace, starting at 25% and increasing to 75% by the third year. If their assumption comes true, they estimate the market size to hit $14 trillion in the first year, $26 trillion in the second, and $39 trillion in the third year.
The firm’s estimates of inflows into the Bitcoin ETFs are based on their market size estimates. Going by this, they predict that these funds could see $14 billion of inflows in the first year, $27 billion by the second year, and up to $39 billion by the third year after launch.
Yu noted that factors such as a potential delay or denial of the pending Spot Bitcoin ETFs could affect their analysis. Other factors like poor price performance could also cause a low adoption rate, which they believe will potentially affect their estimates.
Yu also provided insight into the effect that these Spot Bitcoin ETFs could have on BTC’s price. They predict that Bitcoin’s price could see a 74.1% increase in the first year of these funds launching. He made this estimate using the expected amount of inflows ($14 trillion), which is expected to come into these funds in the first year while making comparisons to Gold ETFs.
Source: Galaxy Research
Specifically, they project that Bitcoin’s price could see a 6.2% increase in the first month of these funds’ launch as they estimate an adjusted inflow of over $10 billion in the first month. This price increase in the first month is expected to keep ramping down to a 3.7% price impact in the last month of the first year of launch, all of which will cumulatively add up to the 74.1% increase.
Featured image from The Conversation, chart from Tradingview.com
The current Bitcoin rally has taken most of the crypto space by surprise after going from under $27,000 to $35,000 in less than two weeks. As prices continue to fly, on-chain data tracker Santiment has revealed something different between the current Bitcoin rally and its previous rallies above $30,000.
Altcoins Refuse To Fall Behind Bitcoin
In the report that was posted on X (formerly Twitter), Santiment revealed that altcoins have changed their usual routine for when the Bitcoin price is surging. For instance, when Bitcoin had rallied to $30,000 in April and July of this year, altcoins had taken a back seat, allowing BTC to enjoy the shine.
This time around, the rally has been just as prominent in altcoins as it has been in Bitcoin, and in some cases, even outshining BTC’s price trajectory. Some of these altcoins that have shown teeth this time include Chainlink’s LINK, Polygon’s MATIC, Aptos’s APT, AAVE, and UIP. All of these altcoins have defied the established trend with their prices surging double-digits in a short time.
Not only are these altcoins seeing a lot of success at a time when Bitcoin would be the only one rallying, but they have also managed to decouple completely from the leading cryptocurrency. According to Santiment, all of the named altcoins “are all seeing their best performing decouplings of 2023.”
Meme Coins Show Their Prowess
As the crypto market rally has progressed through some of its most bullish stages, other altcoins such as meme coins have begun to also show a lot of promise. The usual culprits such as PEPE saw double-digit gains as well, with ELON rallying up to 57%. Additionally, $BITCOIN also saw a $36 rise in one week.
PEPE has continued to surge as well and is up 34.55% in the last day, bringing its weekly gains to 51.49%. The meme coin’s run has seen it emerge as a top gainer, also trending alongside the likes of Bitcoin (BTC) and Chainlink (LINK).
Another altcoin that stands out is Troller’s TRB. The coin rose around 750% in a 3-month period to emerge as one of the winners of the rallies. It also saw large transactions from unique whale addresses, suggesting a very high level of interest in the altcoin from investors.
In all, this rally is completely different from the previous rallies recorded this year in that the whole market seems to be pulling up together. This is interesting because rallies like these are usually seen in bull markets, with 2021 serving as a perfect example.
Solana has gained the favor of institutional investors recently which has seen a marked increase in the amount of inflows that the altcoin has recorded. This trend has continued with last week’s numbers which show a significant amount of inflows for Solana compared to the likes of Ethereum.
Solana Inflows Reach $15.5 Million
According to data from the latest CoinShares report, the inflows into Solana for the last week came out to $15.5 million. This came while some altcoins such as Ethereum saw outflows for the week. For context, Ethereum outflows reached $7.4 million in the same time frame.
As a result of the latest round of inflows, the total Solana Asses under Management (AuM) has reached $74 million. This means that the Solana AuM is up 47% year-to-date, compared to Ethereum’s which has dropped continuously this year, climbing to $119 million in outflows year-to-date.
Cardano is another altcoin that saw inflows for the week but to a lesser degree. Its inflows were $0.1 million, bringing its total AuM to $24 million, with a $6 million increase year-to-date. Other investment products saw $0.9 million, leading their AuM to reach $76 million.
Multi-asset products, however, went the way of Ethereum with outflows of $0.6 million. This brings its AuM to $1.17 billion, a $31 million decrease year-to-date.
For the same week, Bitcoin once again came out ahead in terms of inflows, with numbers topping that of Solana. The leading cryptocurrency saw $55.3 million in inflows, bringing its AuM to $24.205 billion. The asset’s month-to-date inflows are currently sitting at an impressive $111.9 million.
In the same vein, Bitcoin’s year-to-date inflows have also remained on the high side with $315 million in inflows so far. This has further solidified its position as the leading asset with the most interest from institutional investors so far.
Short Bitcoin products were also not left out of the inflow trend. Its weekly inflows sit at $1.6 million, while the month-to-date inflows came out to $4.5 million. Its year-to-date inflows sit at $46 million, bringing its AuM to $99 million. In total, the AuM of crypto investment products is nearly $33 billion.
“Following recent price appreciation, total Assets under Management (AuM) have risen by 15% since their lows in early September, now totalling nearly US$33bn, the highest point since mid-August,” the CoinShares report said.
CoinShares also notes that the inflows could be linked to the excitement and anticipation of a Spot Bitcoin ETF being approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). However, the numbers are much lower compared to when asset manager BlackRock first announced that it had filed for a Spot Bitcoin ETF.
Featured image from Outlook India, chart from Tradingview.com
The flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, is fast approaching $31,000 following its gains over the weekend. Analyzing this price action, crypto analyst Ali Martinez has predicted Bitcoin’s future trajectory as he suggests that the bears could regain dominance soon enough.
A Price Correction Imminent For Bitcoin
In a post shared on his X (formerly Twitter) platform, Martinez noted the potential head-and-shoulders pattern that was forming on the Bitcoin daily chart following its upward trend. This chart pattern has always been considered bearish as it suggests that a trend reversal might be on the horizon, meaning there could be a dip in prices soon enough.
Source: X
Confirming this assumption, Martinez stated that the daily chart (which he shared alongside the post) “hints at a possible sell signal emerging tomorrow [October 23].” According to him, this prediction is backed by the TD Sequential indicator, which is flashing “a green 9 candlestick.” The TD Sequential indicator helps traders identify the exact time of a potential reversal.
Martinez also alluded to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which he mentioned has reached 74.21. He noted that this has been “a level triggering sharp corrections since March.” An RSI of over 70 also suggests that Bitcoin may be overbought with a price correction imminent. This impending price correction can only be averted if Bitcoin manages to clock “a daily candlestick close above $31,560.”
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $30,700, up by over 2% in the last twenty-four hours and a further 10% in the last seven days.
Options Market Could Contribute To Bitcoin’s Upward Momentum
In a post on his X platform, Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research, highlighted the role that options traders (short gammas in particular) could play in driving Bitcoin’s price higher in the short term.
Source: X
He noted that the options market makers in Bitcoin are “increasingly short gamma as BTC spot price moves up.” This current positioning could help “amplify the explosiveness of any short-term upward move in the near term,” considering that these short gammas have to buy more Bitcoin to stay “delta neutral” as Bitcoin’s price continues to rise.
From his analysis, Thorn was simply explaining that the option market makers will have to place ‘buy orders’ to hedge against their short positions as Bitcoin’s price continues to climb, thereby adding to buying pressure, which could cause the crypto’s price to rise higher.
Meanwhile, he believes that the long gammas could provide a safety net for Bitcoin’s price in the event of a price reversal. These long gammas would have to buy back spots in order to remain delta-neutral, thereby providing support and helping resist any further decline (in the short term, at least).
Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer, Paul Grewal has recently used the law to back the approval of a Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), highlighting that the US regulator should fulfill its responsibilities.
Coinbase CLO Optimism On The Approval Of A Spot BTC ETF
In an interview on Friday, with CNBC’s Arjun Kharpal, Paul expressed his optimism about the approval of Bitcoin ETF applications by the SEC. The Coinbase CLO said that he is quite confident that the SEC will soon approve a spot Bitcoin ETF, backing his belief under the law.
“I’m quite hopeful that these [ETF] applications will be granted, if only because they should be granted under the law,” Paul stated.
Following the interview, Paul highlighted his beliefs in the early success of approval, noting that the firms that have stepped forward with well-structured ETF proposals for these products and services are crucial players in the financial service industry.
I think that the firms that have stepped forward with robust proposals for these products and services are among some of the biggest blue chips in financial services. So that, I think, suggests that we will see progress there in short order.
However, Paul did not give a time frame as to when the approval will happen since the final decision about the approval ultimately lies with the SEC. However, he is still confident that the US regulator is likely to approve a Bitcoin ETF in a short period due to recent developments.
Paul further backed his optimism following the SEC’s recent court setback when a judge from the US Court of Appeals stated that the US regulator had no grounds to deny Grayscale’s approval to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin (BTC) into a spot Bitcoin ETF, calling the SEC’s decision an arbitrary move.
“I think that, after the U.S. Court of Appeals made clear that the SEC could not reject these applications on an arbitrary or capricious basis, we’re going to see the commission fulfill its responsibilities. I’m quite confident of that,” Paul stated.
In addition, Paul also highlighted the SEC’s failure to file an appeal on the ruling indicating a potential approval of a spot BTC ETF soon within the stipulated timespan that was given to them by the court.
If an approval of a Spot ETF is made, BTC could experience a major rally. A Bitcoin ETF serves as a means for investors to invest in BTC without having to make a direct purchase of the digital asset from an exchange.
One of the major cryptocurrency exchanges that will benefit a lot from any Bitcoin ETF approval is Coinbase. This is because the crypto exchange’s common stock is held in portfolios tailored to give investors exposure to cryptocurrencies.
JPMorgan On A Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval
Analysts from JPMorgan, have also expressed their optimism on a Bitcoin ETF approval, that the ETF product could be available to the public by this Christmas.
Due to recent developments following the approval of a Spot Bitcoin ETF, the financial giant believes that there is a high chance that an ETF could gain approval before January 10, 2024.
Ethereum (ETH) has so far relatively underperformed in comparison to the flagship cryptocurrency Bitcoin. However, that could change soon enough as a crypto analyst has predicted the second-largest crypto token by market to gain some momentum soon enough.
Ethereum To Hit $1900
In a post shared on his X (formerly Twitter) platform, prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez mentioned that Ethereum could rise to as high as $1,900. His prediction was based on data that he had pulled up from the chart which he shared in his post.
The chart (a 3-day timeframe) featured an ascending triangle pattern, which usually represents a bullish formation. According to Ali, Ethereum is “poised” to rebound off the hypotenuse of the ascending triangle. Most importantly, for Ethereum to go as high as $1,900, the analyst noted that It has to experience a “firm close” above the 18-day SMA (Simple Moving Average).
ETH getting ready to breakout | Source: X
If that happens, Ethereum could hit $1,800 and further rise to $1,900 based on Ali’s predictions. It is worth mentioning that the last time Ethereum hit $1,900 was back in July 2023. A rise to that price again will represent about an %18 increase from its current price of $1,600.
Ali also had something to say about the flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin. In a subsequent post, he noted that the crypto token could see a correction to $28,800; a prediction he made based on the TD Sequential from a 4-hour chart.
Bitcoin rose to as high as $30,000 on October 20, with many speculating that a Spot Bitcoin ETF approval could be on the way, something that represents a bullish momentum for Bitcoin and the crypto market in general.
Data from TradingView shows that Bitcoin’s dominance has been on the rise this year, with the token currently boasting over 52% coin dominance in the crypto market. Interestingly, it has steadily risen since the Ethereum Merge occurred.
This is significant considering that many speculated that ‘the Flippening’ could happen after the Merge, where Ethereum overtakes Bitcoin to become the most dominant crypto token. However, that hasn’t happened so far, with Ethereum’s move from proof-of-work to proof-of-work being seen as ‘disastrous’ for the crypto token.
Bitcoin and Ethereum, however, share the podium when it comes to the best-performing assets of the year. Both crypto tokens are said to have outperformed the NASDAQ, S&P500, and Gold. Bitcoin has seen an %80 increase year-to-date (YTD), while Ethereum has seen a %35 increase YTD.
Featured image from Analytics Insight, chart from Tradingview.com
In a recent CNBC report, Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, expressed confidence in the approval of a US-based Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Paul Grewal, Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer, highlighted that the SEC’s recent court setback in the case of Grayscale’s proposed Bitcoin ETF has paved the way for a potential approval in the coming months.
Coinbase Eyes Bitcoin ETF Approval
Grewal emphasized that Coinbase is hopeful about the approval of ETF applications due to their compliance with existing laws governing financial services. Grewal noted that prominent financial institutions have submitted robust proposals, indicating progress in the regulatory landscape.
The recent court ruling against the SEC stated that the regulator lacked a valid basis to deny Grayscale’s request to convert its GBTC Bitcoin fund into an ETF.
The SEC chose not to appeal the ruling within the specified deadline, further increasing the likelihood of a BTC-related ETF gaining approval shortly.
However, Grewal acknowledged that the ultimate decision rests with the SEC, and he refrained from providing a specific timeline for the approval process.
Nevertheless, Grewal expressed confidence in the SEC’s obligation to fulfill its responsibilities, particularly in light of the court’s decision and the requirement to apply the law impartially.
This could be particularly attractive to retail investors seeking Bitcoin exposure without the complexities of owning the underlying asset.
Per the report, Coinbase, being the largest crypto exchange in the United States, stands to benefit from the potential approval of a BTC ETF. The company’s common stock is held in portfolios designed to provide investors with crypto exposure.
Legal Troubles Mount For Grayscale’s Parent Company
While the recent court ruling has bolstered prospects for a BTC ETF, it is important to note that Grayscale’s bid to convert GBTC into an ETF is not without its challenges.
Digital Currency Group (DCG), Grayscale’s parent company, along with crypto exchange Gemini and DCG subsidiary Genesis, face a lawsuit from the New York Attorney General, accusing them of defrauding investors of over $1 billion.
Despite the ongoing legal issues, Grewal remained positive about the approval of additional Bitcoin ETFs in the future as the SEC adheres to the law and evaluates pending applications neutrally.
The report also touched upon the recent performance of BTC, which has experienced a resurgence in 2023. With a 72% year-to-date increase, Bitcoin has rebounded from significant declines in 2022.
Factors such as anticipation surrounding the upcoming BTC halving event and investor reactions to the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate policy changes have contributed to increased demand for the digital currency.
Ultimately while trading volumes have declined recently, attributed partly to retail investors’ reduced engagement in response to low volatility and industry players’ challenges, Grewal expressed optimism that various developments, including criminal trials and rigorous regulatory actions, will restore investor and consumer interest in the crypto market.
As the landscape for Bitcoin ETFs evolves, market participants will closely monitor the SEC’s stance and any potential regulatory developments that shape the future of cryptocurrency investment products.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
According to a report by the global investment bank Morgan Stanley, signs indicate that the cyclical “crypto winter” bear market, which has plagued the cryptocurrency industry, may finally end.
The report explores the historical pattern of Bitcoin’s (BTC) performance following halving events that occur approximately every four years. Furthermore, the report estimates that the next halving event could occur around April 2024.
The Cyclical Nature Of Crypto Markets
Per the report, Bitcoin, the dominant cryptocurrency, is a barometer for the overall crypto market. One distinctive feature of Bitcoin is its halving process, which creates scarcity and helps maintain its value.
Every four years, the number of BTC generated every 10 minutes is halved. This deliberate reduction in supply has historically affected Bitcoin’s price, often triggering a bullish market rally.
Previous cycles have witnessed three notable bull runs that lasted 12 to 18 months after each halving event.
The four-year cryptocurrency cycle aligns with the seasons, providing a framework to understand market behavior:
According to Morgan Stanley, summer represents the phase immediately following a halving event, during which Bitcoin’s price gains are typically observed until it reaches a new peak.
Fall signifies when Bitcoin surpasses its previous high, attracting media attention, new investors, and businesses. This phase indicates that the bull market is nearing its end.
Winter characterizes the bear-market decline, initiated by profit-taking and selling pressure from investors, resulting in price drops. This phase persists until the next market trough, typically around 13 months.
Spring is the phase leading up to the next halving event, during which Bitcoin’s price generally recovers from the cycle’s low point. However, investor interest tends to remain relatively weak during this period.
Gauging Indicators To Ascertain The Transition From Winter To Spring
Determining whether crypto spring has truly arrived requires considering several factors. These include the time elapsed since the last peak, the magnitude of Bitcoin’s drawdown from its high, miner capitulation, the Bitcoin price-to-thermocap multiple, exchange-related issues, and price action.
These indicators can provide insights into whether the market has reached a trough or is still experiencing crypto winter.
While the report suggests that crypto winter may be in the past and crypto spring is on the horizon, it emphasizes the importance of learning more about the crypto market’s cyclical tendencies.
The daily chart shows BTC’s sideways price action over the past 24 hours. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com
BTC is trading at $28,500, showing a modest recovery in the past 24 hours after an unsuccessful attempt to stabilize above $30,000 on Monday, followed by a subsequent decline to the $28,000.
Notwithstanding this recent volatility, Bitcoin has maintained substantial gains across various time frames. It has experienced a notable surge of 7.4% over the past seven days, 4% over the past fourteen days, 5% over the past thirty days, and an impressive 49% surge over one year.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
Source: Galaxy Research
Source: X
