Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname – HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.
Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.
Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.
When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)
Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.
In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.
Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think’s probably unfeasible, I’ve done already a hundredfold.”
PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.
Bitcoin prices have been trending lower in the past couple of weeks and generally remain within a bearish formation. Although momentum appears to be picking up, bulls are not out of the woods just yet.
Analysts are not losing hope and remain overly upbeat, expecting a surge that would take the world’s most valuable coin to new levels.
Bitcoin Forms A “Cup And Handle” Formation In The Weekly Chart
In a post on X, one of them, MikybullCrypto, said Bitcoin has formed a “cup and handle” reversal pattern, suggesting an imminent surge towards new all-time highs. This formation is a glimmer of hope for optimistic traders, especially now that prices have been moving lower and sideways, erasing gains posted in March.
BTC forms a cup and handle pattern | Source: @MikybullCrypto via X
The “cup and handle” formation is a technical pattern chartists use to identify potential reversals and confirm trend continuations. In the current setup, as identified by the trader on the weekly chart, the “handle” was formed after the recent price drop from all-time highs. The “cup” follows the price decline in 2022 and the subsequent recovery in 2023.
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Historically, if there is a breakout above the handle and the rim of the cup, prices tend to rally to new levels. For this reason, the analyst says that if buyers press on from spot rates, the breakout above the current range and all-time highs of $73,800 will be “explosive.”
For now, prices remain in a descending channel with clear resistance levels marked out in the immediate term at around $66,000 and $72,000. A breakout, reading from the candlestick formation in the daily chart, above these liquidation levels could spark demand, lifting the coin to new levels.
Will Miners Dump BTC And Force Prices Lower?
However, lurking beneath the optimistic outlook is a potential storm cloud: declining on-chain activity. After the brief spike in on-chain activity on Halving Day due to the launch of the Runes protocol, transaction fees have been declining.
According to YCharts, it is currently at $3.206, down from over $128 on April 20. This contraction means miners are getting less revenue, heaping more pressure now that there is more pressure on margins post-Halving.
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Now that miners are feeling the pinch of slashed block rewards and declining transaction fees, it is likely that they might liquidate some of their BTC to stay afloat. Their participation, especially in the secondary market, would heap more pressure on BTC, forcing prices lower.
Feature image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView
The Bitcoin price has been experiencing a phase of stagnation over the past days, leaving investors and analysts searching for the underlying causes. Three key factors can be seen as central to explaining Bitcoin’s current sideways trading trend:
#1 ETF Inflows Are Offset By GBTC Selling, But For How Much Longer?
The spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to be the dominant theme on the market, and Grayscale in particular, with its GBTC, remains the focus of analysts. While the ETF inflows continue to be record-breaking, the Bitcoin price remains flat. One of the main reasons for this is presumably the outflows on GBTC, which is viewed as overpriced with its fee of 1.5% per year (compared to 0.25%) by other issuers.
Thomas Fahrer of Apollo pointed out the significant flow discrepancies in the market: “In three days of trading. IBIT +16K BTC, FBTC +12K BTC, BITB +6.7K BTC, ARKB +5.3K BTC, GBTC -27K BTC. GBTC BTC is flowing but not enough to sustain the other ETFs. Supply shock inbound imo.”
Alessandro Ottaviani provided further insights, stating, “Bitcoin inflow in the ETFs: +47k, Bitcoin outflow from Grayscale: -27k, net inflow: 20k. […] Soon or later I expect Grayscale outflow stopping or reducing significantly. Those who have Grayscale GBTC were already into Bitcoin and therefore I think they already made the decision to sell, the execution of which should happen not so much later than the launch of the ETF.
Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas expect a portion of GBTC outflows to migrate to other Bitcoin exposures, highlighting the complexities of fund accounting and settlement delays in tracking these movements. They noted, “GBTC has crossed $1.1 billion in outflows…We expect a meaningful percentage of those assets to find their way back into Bitcoin exposure, mostly other ETFs.”
#2 Bitcoin Miners Sell
Ali Martinez has spotlighted the intensified selling activity by Bitcoin miners as another factor influencing the current price stagnation. Recent on-chain data indicates that miners have significantly increased their Bitcoin sales.
Martinez commented on X (formerly Twitter), “Bitcoin Miners in Selling Mode: Recent on-chain data from Cryptoquant indicates a substantial increase in selling activity by BTC miners.”
Bitcoin miners in selling mode | Source: X @ali_charts
Notably, the shift in miner behavior is consistent with historical trends, where miners sell their holdings to manage cash flow or capitalize on price increases during market rallies.
#3 Consolidation Phase Following ETF Mania
The market is currently undergoing a consolidation phase after the euphoria surrounding Bitcoin ETFs, which led to an 82% rally. Such a phase is considered natural and mirrors historical patterns seen in other markets, like the first gold ETF.
Although gold initially recorded an increase of around 6%, it then took a full nine months to start the actual rally, which almost quintupled the price. The same goes for the Bitcoin ETFs. It will take some time before the marketing machine of the asset managers starts up and new institutional investors can be convinced of the new asset class.
Analyst Skew provided a technical perspective, stating, “BTC 4H: Remaining flexible till trend confirmations, however not looking good for the bulls without 4H 200EMA reclaim & RSI below 50. Yearly open [is] still very important for overall risk-reward. Above is good with bullish confirmations. Below is bad for risk & with bearish confirmations leads to downtrend (hedge mode). Pivotal area for 1H – 4H trend ~ $42.5K”
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
Disclaimer: The article is provided for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.
This is an opinion editorial by Ruda Pellini co-founder and president of Arthur Mining, an ESG-focused bitcoin mining company.
I recently saw an article that cited the level of leverage and debt of the world’s leading Bitcoin mining companies. Since they are listed companies, it is easy to find their financial statements and prove the obvious: this is a counter-cyclical business that requires a lot of efficiency and professional management.
For those who are still wondering what mining is, let me quickly explain: the term mining makes an analogy to the process of extracting gold and metals, since bitcoin miners are the “producers” of this digital commodity. In practice, mining consists of allocating computing power and electricity to ensure the bitcoin network functions, validating transactions and serving as the backbone of this decentralized system.
Investing in bitcoin mining is different from buying the asset directly. On the one hand, when investing in mining you have constant and predictable cash flow and physical assets that can be liquidated in the event of market stress, making the investment more attractive to more cautious investors accustomed to investing in cash flow generating businesses. On the other hand, besides the risk related to the asset, there are also risks of the operation itself.
Currently, bitcoin is down more than 65% from its November 2021 peak. Moments like this generate apprehension and make the investors ask themselves: is it an opportunity to increase my investments or a risk?
For bitcoin mining operations with structured cash, the moment represents a great opportunity! To quote Warren Buffet: “It’s only when the tide goes out do you learn who was swimming naked.”
The Impact Of Bitcoin Price On Mining
In general, bitcoin miners have their cash flow reduced as the price of bitcoin falls, so at first glance it is counterintuitive that lower prices are beneficial to a mining company.
However, since we are talking about an industry, more important than the market price is the cost of production.
Within the production costs, the biggest cost is the cost of electricity, which is the main input for this data processing activity. Therefore, those who can get a good price for energy and efficiency can remain profitable even in unfavorable market conditions.
Since not all miners can achieve this same level of efficiency, in scenarios like this one many end up having their production cost very close to the market price of the asset, leading them to liquidate their assets and exit the market.
Because of this, as in most commodity markets, this market is also counter-cyclical, and these down times are the best times to expand operations. There is a positive correlation of the price of mining computers with the price of Bitcoin, where the price ends up being adjusted in a greater variation than the asset itself.
While the price of bitcoin fell about 47% from April to August of this year, the price of computers used in mining fell about 60% in the same period.
(Source: Arthur Mining)
The Bitcoin Mining Companies
Particularly, I understand the mining industry in much the same way as the network infrastructure (cable) industry of the 1990s, where there were basically three major cycles of expansion and consolidation.
The first cycle was marked by geeks and technology enthusiasts, who started internet businesses and literally cabled and set up the first network infrastructures. This has also happened with bitcoin miners since 2009.
In the second cycle, we had the entry of players interested in maximizing capital quickly, ignoring the importance of efficiency by focusing only on the accelerated expansion of their structures and on short-term results.
In the third cycle, we had the consolidation of the industry, with the entry of players focused on efficiency and long-term vision, encouraging the entry of venture capital and the professionalization of the market. In the United States, the 50 largest cable companies of the late 1990s were consolidated into four by the end of 2010.
Most of today’s large mining companies entered the second cycle, with too much focus on the short term and not enough efficiency. This results in businesses that are not very robust and are very vulnerable to times of stress.
During bitcoin’s big up cycle between 2020 and 2021, many mining companies took advantage of rising margins to leverage themselves and expand their operations. This is very common in many industries, but in this case in addition to leveraging in dollars, a good portion of the listed miners ended up keeping their cash in bitcoin in an attempt to maximize their results.
According to estimates from Luxor Technologies, estimates indicate that listed mining companies have between $3 and $4 billion in loan agreements used to finance infrastructure expansion and computer purchases.
Mistakenly, these players did not consider that, as in any commodity producer, if you are able to increase your production capacity, it makes sense to sell the stock you produce and reinvest it, rather than keeping the asset you produce on your balance sheet.
In order to be able to honor these commitments, mining companies began to liquidate their liquid assets first, in this case the bitcoins held on the balance sheet. This move further increased the selling pressure during June and July, pushing prices to new lows.
Basically, the result of the cash management strategy adopted by these mining companies was to mine high and sell low, resulting in further financial losses in addition to the operational losses caused by the bitcoin price declines.
After selling the bitcoin from the balance sheet, the less efficient mining companies will need to sell computers to honor payments and maintain the operation, opening up space for more efficient mining companies to incorporate these assets and operations.
As with other commodities, bitcoin mining is an anti-cyclical business. As a result, the best time to grow is during periods of low prices, when inefficient miners face problems and exit the market.
At the current moment the equipment is at a great discount and the investments made now will bring returns faster. So, despite the negative news and the last few months of falling prices, this is a moment of great asymmetry, with reduced risk and high potential returns to make investments in bitcoin mining.
We are in a moment of great opportunities and those who invest now will be winners in the long run. In short, for businesses that are well structured and have strategic advantages that ensure efficiency, all the turbulence of this harsh winter points in the direction of a very favorable spring for growth.
This is a guest post by Ruda Pellini. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
