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Tag: bitcoin halving cycles

  • Coinbase Bullish: Bitcoin ETF Approval Expected After SEC’s Defeat

    Coinbase Bullish: Bitcoin ETF Approval Expected After SEC’s Defeat

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    In a recent CNBC report, Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, expressed confidence in the approval of a US-based Bitcoin (BTC)  exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

    Paul Grewal, Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer, highlighted that the SEC’s recent court setback in the case of Grayscale’s proposed Bitcoin ETF has paved the way for a potential approval in the coming months.

    Coinbase Eyes Bitcoin ETF Approval 

    Grewal emphasized that Coinbase is hopeful about the approval of ETF applications due to their compliance with existing laws governing financial services. Grewal noted that prominent financial institutions have submitted robust proposals, indicating progress in the regulatory landscape.

    The recent court ruling against the SEC stated that the regulator lacked a valid basis to deny Grayscale’s request to convert its GBTC Bitcoin fund into an ETF. 

    The SEC chose not to appeal the ruling within the specified deadline, further increasing the likelihood of a BTC-related ETF gaining approval shortly.

    However, Grewal acknowledged that the ultimate decision rests with the SEC, and he refrained from providing a specific timeline for the approval process. 

    Nevertheless, Grewal expressed confidence in the SEC’s obligation to fulfill its responsibilities, particularly in light of the court’s decision and the requirement to apply the law impartially.

    The introduction of a Bitcoin ETF would offer investors an alternative means to gain exposure to BTC without directly purchasing the cryptocurrency from an exchange. 

    This could be particularly attractive to retail investors seeking Bitcoin exposure without the complexities of owning the underlying asset.

    Per the report, Coinbase, being the largest crypto exchange in the United States, stands to benefit from the potential approval of a BTC ETF. The company’s common stock is held in portfolios designed to provide investors with crypto exposure.

    Legal Troubles Mount For Grayscale’s Parent Company

    While the recent court ruling has bolstered prospects for a BTC ETF, it is important to note that Grayscale’s bid to convert GBTC into an ETF is not without its challenges. 

    Digital Currency Group (DCG), Grayscale’s parent company, along with crypto exchange Gemini and DCG subsidiary Genesis, face a lawsuit from the New York Attorney General, accusing them of defrauding investors of over $1 billion.

    Despite the ongoing legal issues, Grewal remained positive about the approval of additional Bitcoin ETFs in the future as the SEC adheres to the law and evaluates pending applications neutrally.

    The report also touched upon the recent performance of BTC, which has experienced a resurgence in 2023. With a 72% year-to-date increase, Bitcoin has rebounded from significant declines in 2022. 

    BTC’s 3% uptrend on the daily chart over the past 24 hours. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    Factors such as anticipation surrounding the upcoming BTC halving event and investor reactions to the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate policy changes have contributed to increased demand for the digital currency.

    Ultimately while trading volumes have declined recently, attributed partly to retail investors’ reduced engagement in response to low volatility and industry players’ challenges, Grewal expressed optimism that various developments, including criminal trials and rigorous regulatory actions, will restore investor and consumer interest in the crypto market.

    As the landscape for Bitcoin ETFs evolves, market participants will closely monitor the SEC’s stance and any potential regulatory developments that shape the future of cryptocurrency investment products.

    Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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    Ronaldo Marquez

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  • Crypto Winter Might Be Over, Says Morgan Stanley, All Eyes On April 2024 | Bitcoinist.com

    Crypto Winter Might Be Over, Says Morgan Stanley, All Eyes On April 2024 | Bitcoinist.com

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    According to a report by the global investment bank Morgan Stanley, signs indicate that the cyclical “crypto winter” bear market, which has plagued the cryptocurrency industry, may finally end

    The report explores the historical pattern of Bitcoin’s (BTC) performance following halving events that occur approximately every four years. Furthermore, the report estimates that the next halving event could occur around April 2024.

    The Cyclical Nature Of Crypto Markets

    Per the report, Bitcoin, the dominant cryptocurrency, is a barometer for the overall crypto market. One distinctive feature of Bitcoin is its halving process, which creates scarcity and helps maintain its value. 

    Every four years, the number of BTC generated every 10 minutes is halved. This deliberate reduction in supply has historically affected Bitcoin’s price, often triggering a bullish market rally. 

    Previous cycles have witnessed three notable bull runs that lasted 12 to 18 months after each halving event.

    The four-year cryptocurrency cycle aligns with the seasons, providing a framework to understand market behavior:

    According to Morgan Stanley, summer represents the phase immediately following a halving event, during which Bitcoin’s price gains are typically observed until it reaches a new peak.

    Fall signifies when Bitcoin surpasses its previous high, attracting media attention, new investors, and businesses. This phase indicates that the bull market is nearing its end.

    Winter characterizes the bear-market decline, initiated by profit-taking and selling pressure from investors, resulting in price drops. This phase persists until the next market trough, typically around 13 months.

    Spring is the phase leading up to the next halving event, during which Bitcoin’s price generally recovers from the cycle’s low point. However, investor interest tends to remain relatively weak during this period.

    Gauging Indicators To Ascertain The Transition From Winter To Spring

    Determining whether crypto spring has truly arrived requires considering several factors. These include the time elapsed since the last peak, the magnitude of Bitcoin’s drawdown from its high, miner capitulation, the Bitcoin price-to-thermocap multiple, exchange-related issues, and price action. 

    These indicators can provide insights into whether the market has reached a trough or is still experiencing crypto winter.

    While the report suggests that crypto winter may be in the past and crypto spring is on the horizon, it emphasizes the importance of learning more about the crypto market’s cyclical tendencies. 

    The daily chart shows BTC’s sideways price action over the past 24 hours. Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    BTC is trading at $28,500, showing a modest recovery in the past 24 hours after an unsuccessful attempt to stabilize above $30,000 on Monday, followed by a subsequent decline to the $28,000.

    Notwithstanding this recent volatility, Bitcoin has maintained substantial gains across various time frames. It has experienced a notable surge of 7.4% over the past seven days, 4% over the past fourteen days, 5% over the past thirty days, and an impressive 49% surge over one year.

    Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com 

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    Ronaldo Marquez

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