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Tag: Bitcoin (BTC) Price

  • Bitcoin Suffers Worst Q4 Since 2018 Crash with Near-22% Plunge

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    Bitcoin is heading to its worst Q4 since 2018, down nearly 22% as macro pressure and fading demand weigh on prices.

    Bitcoin (BTC) is set to close the fourth quarter of 2025 with a loss of nearly 22%, marking its weakest Q4 performance since the 2018 market collapse.

    The sharp decline has unsettled traders and analysts alike, as on-chain signals, macro pressure, and fading speculative activity point to a fragile phase for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

    Bitcoin Posts Its Weakest Q4 in Seven Years

    The latest quarterly returns data for BTC gathered by Coinglass shows it is currently down by almost 22%. Since 2016, the flagship cryptocurrency has typically posted gains in the fourth quarter, often using the period to recover from summer weakness or extend bullish momentum.

    That pattern held firmly in recent years, with BTC climbing nearly 57% in Q4 2023 and almost 48% in Q4 2024, helped by spot ETF optimism and institutional inflows.

    The only comparable Q4 weakness occurred in 2018, when Bitcoin lost more than 42% during a prolonged bear market. While the current decline is smaller in magnitude, the structure is similar. According to Coinglass data, 2025 began with an 11.8% decline in Q1, followed by a rebound of nearly 30% in Q2 and modest gains of just over 6% in Q3. That sequence mirrors earlier cycles where mid-year recoveries failed to carry into year-end, signaling demand fatigue rather than a sudden shock.

    The concentration of losses in Q4 is also notable. Earlier quarterly gains suggested Bitcoin was holding up reasonably well through most of 2025, but the late-year breakdown points to a shift in market behavior. Historically, such Q4 declines have appeared when speculative interest fades and new capital struggles to replace earlier inflows, a pattern now echoed in on-chain data.

    At the time of writing, BTC was trading at around $89,000, up by just over 1% in the last 24 hours but down more than 2% over the past fortnight. Price action has remained choppy in recent weeks, with the asset moving within an $85,000 to $90,000 range over the last seven days. While it has gained close to 6% over the past month, the cryptocurrency remains down about 7% on a yearly basis and nearly 29% below its all-time high near $126,000 set in early October.

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    On-Chain Data and Macro Signals Paint a Cautious Picture

    Market observers on CryptoQuant have largely framed the Q4 slide as a continuation of a broader cooling phase rather than a sudden breakdown. Analyst GugaOnChain wrote that Bitcoin is still in a bear market, citing the Bull-Bear Cycle indicator and a negative spread between the 30-day and 365-day moving averages.

    On-chain activity has also softened, with daily transaction counts sliding from roughly 460,000 to 438,000 and highly active addresses falling to around 41,500, signaling reduced participation from large traders.

    Further insight from XWIN Research Japan shows that Bitcoin is moving through a “stop-and-go” phase following its earlier rebound. The firm linked part of the weakness to global macro conditions, including the Bank of Japan’s December 19 rate increase to 0.75%.

    Despite the move being widely expected, lingering uncertainty about future hikes has muted risk appetite, particularly for yen-funded trades tied to crypto markets.

    Additionally, leverage metrics suggest much of the excess speculation has already been cleared, with no meaningful rebuild despite price swings. XWIN also pointed out that the Coinbase Premium Index has improved from deeply negative levels but has yet to stay positive, hinting that strong U.S.-led spot demand remains limited.

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  • Bhutan Commits 10,000 BTC to Developing a Mindfulness-Based Economic Hub

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    The Bitcoin Development Pledge aligns with the king’s vision of applying modern digital technologies to serve the people of Bhutan and future generations.

    The Kingdom of Bhutan has taken its adoption of bitcoin (BTC) a step further by allocating a portion of its reserves to the development of its new special administrative region, Gelephu Mindfulness City (GMC).

    According to a press release sent to CryptoPotato, the country will channel 10,000 BTC, worth roughly $1 billion, to support the long-term development of GMC. GMC is a new economic hub designed for mindfulness, sustainability, and innovation.

    Bhutan Unveils Bitcoin Development Pledge

    Bhutan’s ruler, His Majesty King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, unveiled the Bitcoin Development Pledge via his National Day Address earlier this week. The commitment aligns with the king’s vision of applying modern digital technologies to serve the people of Bhutan and future generations.

    The country will assess several approaches that would enable the long-term use of the pledged assets. The options under consideration include collateralising the Kingdom’s bitcoin holdings, implementing yield management strategies, and preserving asset value while holding them long-term.

    Bhutan will guide any use of BTC in the GMC by prudence and strong governance, ensuring transparency and capital preservation. The country will prioritize preserving long-term potential while developing the economic hub in a stable and sustainable manner.

    Jigdrel Singay, Board Director at GMC, commented on the approach, saying: “Bhutan’s position is that its Bitcoin holdings are intended for the long term, and that commitment is reiterated clearly in the Development Pledge. The specific strategy is still being worked on, and the examples mentioned in the announcement outline the range of responsible options under consideration. There is no change to Bhutan’s long-term stewardship approach toward its Bitcoin reserves.”

    GMC to be Powered by Digital Infrastructure

    Besides being a mindfulness hub, GMC will also provide regulatory clarity, financial connectivity, and a long-term environment for collaboration. The hub is open to partnerships from both local and international digital asset entities. Bhutan has already integrated digital assets into the hub’s strategic reserves and enabled crypto-based payments across services. The Kingdom has also launched TER, a sovereign-backed token linked to physical gold.

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    These efforts build on the country’s track record of being one of the earliest adopters of BTC and digital asset infrastructure. Since 2017, Bhutan has quietly been mining BTC using clean energy.

    “As your King, I must ensure that every Bhutanese is a custodian, stakeholder, and beneficiary of GMC…This commitment is for our people, our youth, and our nation,” Bhutan’s ruler stated.

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  • BTC Price at Crossroads: $93K Breakout or Crash to $75K?

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    Bitcoin trades near $87K with $85K support and $88K resistance key. Analysts eye $93K breakout or $75K drop if support fails.

    Bitcoin is trading near $87,000 at press time, showing a small drop over the past 24 hours and a 4% decline in the past week (CoinGecko). After filling the $88,600 Fair Value Gap (FVG), the asset has pulled back and is now sitting just below that key level.

    Analysts are watching $85,000 and $88,000, as the next move may decide whether BTC climbs to $93,000 or drops toward $75,000.

    $85K Support and $88K Resistance in Focus

    According to Crypto Patel, the cryptocurrency is still following the expected technical path. After filling the $88,600 gap, it failed to push higher and is now trading below it. The $85,000 level is now seen as a major support zone. If that holds, the price could reach the $93,000 Bearish Order Block, which also lines up with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement.

    Source: Crypto Patel/X

    If BTC fails to stay above $85,000 or reclaim $88,000, pressure may increase. In that case, it could fall toward the $75,000–$76,000 zone. This area has been mapped as a possible support zone with previous buy-side activity.

    In addition, chart data from Ali Martinez points to a bearish flag pattern. This setup began with a steep drop, followed by a channel trending upward. The lower edge of that channel has now been broken, and BTC is trading below it. The estimated target, based on the pattern’s size, is near $79,000.

    Liquidity Zones May Guide Next Move

    Ted noted that there are clusters of liquidity between $80,000 and $83,000 on the downside, and between $92,000 and $93,000 on the upside. He wrote,

    “If BTC reclaims the $89,000 level, upside liquidity will be swept first,” but added, “If Bitcoin loses the $85,000 level, the downside liquidity will be taken out before a bounce back.”

    However, Bitcoin is still above a major trendline that has shaped its price for the past four years. As long as it stays above that line, the long-term trend remains stable.

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    Glassnode shared that BTC is still below the short-term holder cost basis but above deeper realized prices. This keeps Bitcoin in a zone where it has room to move in either direction, depending on whether demand returns or selling increases.

    As CryptoPotato reported, large holders are still accumulating. Since November 11, the number of wallets holding at least 100 BTC has increased by 91. At the same time, small wallet numbers are falling. Some older wallets have moved coins, suggesting that some long-time holders may be reducing exposure.

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    Olivia Stephanie

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  • Bitwise’s Matt Hougan Reveals Why Most Crypto Treasury Firms Should Actually Trade at a Discount

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    Bitwise’s Matt Hougan believes that larger DATs gain major advantages in debt markets, lending capacity, derivatives access, and M&A opportunities.

    Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan outlined a valuation framework for digital asset treasury companies (DATs) and said that analysis of the sector often misunderstands how these firms should be priced relative to the assets they hold.

    In a series of posts, Hougan said the core question for valuing any DAT is to consider what the company would be worth if it had a fixed lifespan.

    Illiquidity, Expenses, and Risk

    He explained that a Bitcoin-focused DAT announcing a same-day shutdown and distribution of its holdings would trade exactly at the value of its bitcoin, or an mNAV of 1.0, while extending the liquidation timeline to one year introduces conditions that can push valuations above or below the underlying asset value.

    Hougan said three main factors justify a discount to mNAV: illiquidity, expenses, and risk. Illiquidity reflects the lower price investors would pay today for Bitcoin they would receive in a year, and Hougan suggests that the discount could be 5-10%. Expenses directly reduce investor value, and a DAT holding $100 worth of BTC per share but paying executives $10 per share per year would warrant a corresponding 10% discount. Risk, defined as the possibility of operational errors or other failures, must also be factored into pricing.

    On the other side, the Bitwise exec said DATs may trade at a premium only if they are increasing their crypto-per-share, and noted that in the US, this is the sole reason for such a premium. He identified four strategies DATs use to accomplish this: issuing USD-denominated debt to buy crypto, lending out crypto to earn interest, using derivatives such as writing call options to generate additional income, and acquiring crypto at a discount.

    Discounted acquisitions can occur through purchasing locked assets from foundations seeking liquidity, acquiring another DAT trading below its asset value, repurchasing its own discounted shares, or buying a cash-flow-generating business and allocating the proceeds to crypto.

    “High Hurdle”

    Hougan added that discount factors tend to be certain while premium-enabling factors tend to be uncertain. This ends up creating what he described as a high hurdle for most DATs. As a result, he said most companies will trade at a discount, with only a limited number of strong performers trading at a premium. Using the example of a Bitcoin DAT scheduled to liquidate in 12 months, he said fair value can be estimated by calculating expenses, adding a risk discount, and offsetting these with expectations for increases in bitcoin-per-share.

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    Although DATs do not have fixed lifespans in practice, the exec said this extends rather than changes the model, because expenses and risks compound over time, while companies that can grow crypto-per-share consistently may become highly valuable.

    He also said larger DATs have structural advantages, including easier access to debt markets, larger pools of crypto for lending, deeper options markets, and broader opportunities for mergers, acquisitions, or other discounted deals. While DATs have largely moved in tandem over the past six months, Hougan expects greater divergence ahead, with a small number of firms executing well enough to trade at a premium and many others trading at a discount.

    Meanwhile, DAT companies have invested at least $42.7 billion into crypto acquisitions in 2025, according to CoinGecko’s recent report. It was found that $22.6 billion was deployed in the third quarter alone, which makes it the strongest quarter on record for accumulation. Altcoin-focused DAT companies accounted for $10.8 billion, or 47.8%, of Q3 spending, but Bitcoin-focused firms continued to dominate overall activity.

    Since the start of 2025, Bitcoin DAT companies have purchased more than $30 billion in BTC, which represented 70.3% of total acquisitions. Ethereum counterparts followed with $7.9 billion in purchases, most of it in August, while SOL, BNB, WLFI, and other assets made up 11.2% of annual spending.

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    Chayanika Deka

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  • Bitcoin Logs 4th Straight Negative Week as Corrective Phase Extends: Bitfinex Alpha

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    The BTC correction has extended the drawdown from its all-time high to 36%, making it the largest in this cycle, both in percentage and in the scale of long liquidations.

    Bitcoin (BTC) ended last week with negative returns amid the broader crypto market’s continued decline. Analysts at the crypto exchange Bitfinex revealed in a weekly report that the record marked the fourth consecutive weekly decline for the leading digital asset.

    According to Bitfinex, the last time BTC recorded four straight weeks of negative returns was during the lengthy consolidation phase between March and October 2024. However, at the time, the peak-to-trough plunge was roughly 24.1%. This time, BTC has fallen 30.6% over the past four weeks.

    BTC Corrective Phase Continues

    Last week, BTC recorded a peak-to-trough decline of 16%, closing the 7-day period with an 8.65% plunge. The correction has extended the drawdown from its all-time high to 36%, highlighting the ongoing decline as the largest in this cycle, both in percentage and in the scale of long liquidations.

    Amid the drawdown, short-term holders (those holding BTC for 155 days or less) are capitulating. This investor cohort is seeing an acceleration in selling at a loss, with BTC falling below the lower band of their cost-basis model. The seven-day Exponential Moving Average of short-term holder realised losses has risen to $523 million per day. This is the highest level recorded since the collapse of the defunct crypto exchange FTX.

    Currently, there is a high level of distress among recent BTC buyers. They have been forced to exit their positions amid mounting unrealized losses. This level of loss realization shows how top-heavy the market became before the ongoing correction – the BTC supply between $106,000 and $118,000 was far denser than in previous cycle peaks.

    November to End on Negative Note

    The current downturn is so severe that the market has recorded unprecedented liquidation activity. The $19.2 billion liquidation event of October 10 is the largest seen in a single day in history. The market saw an additional $3.9 billion in liquidations last week, underscoring the pressure on leveraged traders across the derivatives sector.

    Meanwhile, the market is on track to end November on negative terms. This month has historically yielded an average return of 40.8% and a median of over 8.2% since 2013. If the bears persist, then November will follow October, which closed in the red for the first time in seven years.

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    Mandy Williams

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  • On-Chain Proof: The Crash Was a Bitcoin Panic, Not an Ethereum Collapse

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    Ethereum’s supply mechanics limited selling pressure, keeping losses smaller than typical Bitcoin corrections.

    Bitcoin’s violent slide from around $107,000 on November 11 to lows near $81,000 on November 21 has rattled traders across the market.

    However, new on-chain data shows this was first and foremost a Bitcoin panic, not an Ethereum meltdown.

    A Tale of Two Sell-Offs

    Analysis from XWIN Research Japan shows how the October–November correction split the two majors. Indexed from October 1, Bitcoin dropped into the low-70s by late November, while Ethereum slid into the high-60s.

    Historically, a 30% pullback in BTC has often meant a 40–50% hit for ETH, but this time the gap stayed unusually narrow, signaling that the latter held up better than usual even as fear spread.

    The reason sits on-chain. Since the Merge, a growing share of ETH is locked in staking, while EIP-1559 continues to remove coins from circulation during busy periods. That means there are fewer tokens available to dump when the market panics.

    By contrast, Bitcoin saw a clear liquidation spike on November 21, matching reports of nearly $2 billion in wiped-out positions in a single day as the asset briefly slid toward $81,000 before bouncing back above $84,000 and later reclaiming levels near $88,000 over the weekend.

    BTC is currently trading around $86,000, down about 10% on the week, 19% over two weeks, and 23% on the month. On its part, ETH is sitting near $2,800, which is about 12% lower on the week, 22% down over 14 days, and 29% lower on the month; painful, but not the outsized damage of past cycles.

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    Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio, a key on-chain valuation gauge, has dropped from around 2.5 earlier in 2025 to roughly 1.5 in this selloff, a zone that has often marked deep mid-cycle resets rather than final tops.

    ETH Leverage Is a Time Bomb, but Supply Is on Its Side

    Despite the seemingly positive news for the world’s second-largest digital asset, other market technicians have said that the calmer ETH spot picture hides a dangerous build-up in derivatives.

    According to CryptoOnchain, Ethereum’s estimated leverage ratio on Binance climbed to a record 0.562, even as the price fell from about $4,200 to $2,800.

    In other words, traders kept piling into leveraged longs while the chart trended lower, leaving the market exposed to another wave of liquidations if the cryptocurrency takes one more leg down.

    Elsewhere, analysts are calling the current climate a “Zebra Market,” a term coined by XWIN Research to describe an environment defined by sharp, black-and-white price swings rather than a sustained bull or bear trend.

    In such conditions, on-chain data becomes a critical tool for separating signal from noise, and for now, they frame this episode as a BTC-led flush in a choppy mid-cycle, not the start of an Ethereum breakdown.

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  • Is the Crypto Bull Cycle Over, or Is This Just a Deep Correction? CryptoQuant Offers Insights

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    Demand has dried up, and BTC has fallen below its 365-day moving average. Could the market already be in bear season, or is this just a deep correction?

    Bitcoin (BTC) is currently experiencing its deepest correction in this bull cycle. Before recovering some ground to $87,000 as of press time, it had dumped below $81,000 after losing over 35% from its value since the all-time high in early October.

    Although the consensus remains that BTC and the broader crypto market still have one more rally to go (possibly in 2026) before the bull cycle ends, technical and fundamental metrics suggest otherwise. The latest weekly report from CryptoQuant has analyzed on-chain and off-chain metrics that indicate the bear market may have begun.

    Is the Bull Cycle Over?

    According to CryptoQuant, BTC is experiencing a drawdown of more than 35% so far. The asset has fallen below its 365-day moving average (MA) of $102,000 and major support levels between $90,000 and $92,000. The 365-day MA has acted as the ultimate support level in this cycle, and BTC has never broken below it during price corrections since this bull phase began.

    Notably, the MA was one of the last signals that confirmed the start of the 2022 bear market. Market conditions are already the most bearish they have been since this bull cycle started in January 2023, and they could get worse. Also, CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has declined to extreme bearish levels around 20 out of 100.

    Demand Needed For New Rally

    Past corrections in this bull cycle have mostly come with sustained demand from institutions. However, the same cannot be said this time. CryptoQuant analysts said this cycle has likely seen the most of its demand wave.

    The BTC holdings of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been declining in annual terms, growing by one of the slowest paces recorded since their launch. Bitcoin purchases by Treasury companies, which were a major source of demand this year, have almost stopped. This is because their market cap has tumbled by at least 70% over the last few months.

    Although the leading Treasury company, Strategy, is still acquiring BTC, its purchases have declined significantly, from 171,000 BTC a year ago to 9,600 BTC as of today. Bitcoin Treasury firms are no longer able to sell more shares to raise capital and buy more BTC, and this has significantly affected demand.

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    Regardless of the market’s state, CryptoQuant believes a strong catalyst could trigger demand sufficient to drive another rally next year. But the question remains: which catalyst will be strong enough to accelerate BTC demand in the coming months?

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  • Bitcoin Loses $90K Support as On-Chain Data Hints at $70K Next

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    On-chain data indicates that BTC is trading within a new range, moving between $70,000 and $90,000, with a point of control near $83,000.

    Bitcoin (BTC) has decisively broken below the psychologically significant $90,000 level, reaching a six-month low under $81,000.

    According to analyst CryptoOnchain, this breach signals a new corrective phase for the digital asset, with their assessment now pointing toward a critical test of the $70,000-$73,000 support zone as the next major battleground for market direction.

    A Market in Correction

    The decline has been sharp, with Bitcoin’s value falling roughly 17% over the past month and over 6% in the last 24 hours alone, based on recent data from CoinGecko.

    This drop pushed the asset to levels not seen since April, triggering substantial market liquidations. The selling pressure was amplified by activity from long-term holders, with analytics firm Arkham revealing that an early Bitcoin adopter, Owen Gunden, moved $230 million in BTC to the Kraken exchange.

    This was part of a larger sell-off that saw the entity dispose of 11,000 BTC, worth $1.3 billion, since October, introducing significant sell-side pressure from a source that had been dormant for years.

    While the break below $90,000 is technically bearish, CryptoOnchain indicated a new trading range is being established between $70,000 and $90,000.

    They pointed out that the Point of Control (POC), the price level with the highest traded volume, sits near $83,000, which could act as a magnet for the price, leading to a period of consolidation. However, the primary focus for many is the stronger confluence of support waiting below.

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    The Path to a Potential Bottom

    According to CryptoOnchain, the most important area of interest for traders is the $70,000-$73,000 band.  This zone is not just a major technical level; its importance is heavily reinforced by on-chain data, which shows it matches up with the average acquisition cost, or Realized Price, of large Bitcoin holders.

    The metrics shared by the expert show these entities, holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, have a collective cost basis of approximately $71,000.  Historically, when the market price approaches the average purchase price of major investor groups, they often step in to buy more to defend their positions, creating a powerful support floor.

    Market sentiment, as tracked by analytics platform Santiment on November 20, reflects the ongoing fear. Social media is filled with a mix of optimism from those looking to buy the dip and pessimism from those predicting further losses.

    The firm suggested that a true market bottom often forms when retail sentiment becomes overwhelmingly negative, marked by a surge in predictions for prices below $70,000.

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  • Analyst: Bitcoin Is Repeating the Pattern Behind S&P’s 200% Rally

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    Analyst compares BTC’s “flat correction” and deep drawdown to the S&P’s 61% crash before its explosive bull run.

    A crypto analyst has suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) is tracing a historic pattern last seen in the S&P 500 before a massive 200% jump.

    This comparison points to a potential, though not yet certain, launch into a period of exponential growth for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

    A Historical Blueprint for a Bull Run

    In a detailed analysis, CrediBULL Crypto drew parallels between Bitcoin’s current price action and the S&P 500’s behavior between 2000 and 2008. The expert noted that both markets experienced mid-cycle tops characterized by extended periods of consolidation without a dramatic peak, called “flat corrections,” before starting the next major upward move.

    Following these phases, the S&P 500 suffered a 61% drop, while Bitcoin saw a 76% decline, before each started its final, explosive rally. CrediBULL now says that BTC is at a stage similar to where the S&P 500 was just before it went parabolic, which was followed by a 200% price increase.

    “On the SPX, just before we went parabolic, we saw a 37% correction to the downside. Which was immediately followed by new ATH and a 200+% rally off the lows to where we are today,” wrote the technician.

    This optimistic outlook is coming at a time when the OG crypto is trying to find stability, currently trading around $92,000 after a difficult month that saw it fall over 14%. The comparison offers a counter-narrative to the bearish sentiment prevailing in the market, suggesting the recent downturn may be a typical, though sharp, correction within a larger bull cycle rather than its end.

    CrediBULL insisted that a break of a short-term ascending trend line does not signify a breakdown in overall market structure, cautioning that traders who exited the S&P 500 on a similar technical break missed the huge rally that followed.

    For Bitcoin, the trader highlighted $74,000 as the line that truly matters, telling one follower that the “trend line isn’t relevant – 74k is.” Until then, they see BTC “hugging” its main trendline rather than starting the vertical part of the move.

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    Market Sentiment and Diverging Views

    The analyst community is divided on BTC’s immediate future. While the historical pattern offers a hopeful framework, other experts have pointed to lingering headwinds. One of them, Axel Bitblaze, observed that Bitcoin’s recent decline is quite similar to a pattern from early 2025, which ended in a final sharp shakeout. According to him, rising Japanese bond yields and liquidity issues at smaller U.S. banks could serve as potential catalysts for another downturn.

    The market is also witnessing a flight of retail investors, with data from November 19 showing that small Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP wallets have been reducing their holdings, a behavior that, ironically, has often happened just before market recoveries.

    Ultimately, the debate centers on whether Bitcoin is completing a final bearish shakeout or is on the cusp of a historic breakout. CrediBULL argues that the cryptocurrency, being a younger and faster-moving asset, could replicate the S&P’s parabolic move in a much shorter timeframe.

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  • Bitcoin Price Suddenly Drops Below $90K Again as BlackRock’s IBIT Continues to Bleed

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    IBIT is on a 5-day negative streak.

    Bitcoin’s price recovery attempt to $94,000 was short-lived as the asset plunged again to under $90,000 for the second time in the past few days.

    Aside from the overall market correction, another notable reason behind these pullbacks could be attributed to the negative performance of the world’s largest BTC-focused ETF.

    BTCUSD. Source: TradingView

    Data provided by FarSide paints a clear and violent picture. BlackRock’s IBIT has seen net outflows in 11 out of the last 15 trading days, and only two of those four were with positive numbers. The fund has lost roughly $2.650 billion within this timeframe, which is a stark contrast to the millions (and even billions on some dates) attracted daily during the summer rally.

    What’s even more worrisome is the fact that the withdrawals on November 18 of $523.2 million set a record for the single-largest day of net outflows. Fidelity’s FBTC has also been bleeding out lately, with some examples on November 4 (-$356.6 million) and November 7 (-$256.7 million).

    Overall, nearly $5 billion has been withdrawn from the spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States since October 29. Naturally, this sort of investor behavior has harmed the underlying asset’s price, which traded above $116,000 at the end of the previous month.

    Since then, it has dropped by more than $26,000 as it now trades well below $90,000 after the most recent rejection at $94,000 earlier today.

    The situation around Ethereum and its ETF is rather identical and even worse on some occasions. In fact, the funds have been deep in the red since October 8. More precisely, only six out of the 28 trading days since that date have seen net inflows; the rest have been in a negative territory.

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    Expectedly, ETH’s price has suffered a lot within this timeframe. It stood close to $4,800 on October 7 before the overall market crash drove it south hard, as the asset plunged below $3,000 once again minutes ago.

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    Jordan Lyanchev

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  • We Asked 4 AIs if Bitcoin (BTC) Will Crash to $50K Before the End of 2025

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    ChatGPT set the chance for such a scenario at less than 15%.

    It has been a rough few weeks for the Bitcoin bulls, as the asset’s price has plummeted well below $100,000.

    Some analysts and community members have started waving the white flag, declaring the start of the bear market. We turned to four of the most popular AI chatbots to determine if a more significant plunge to $50,000 is on the horizon.

    It Seems Unlikely

    According to ChatGPT, BTC has entered a bearish phase inside a larger bull cycle. That said, it claimed that a crash to $50,000 before the end of 2025 is unexpected and would require “a major negative catalyst.” Such a shock would be a recession, the fallout of a leading crypto exchange (similar to what happened with FTX in 2022), and other factors.

    The chatbot stated that double-digit corrections are normal in bull markets, noting that the current cycle is stronger than previous ones due to the strong demand created by the spot BTC ETFs.

    In conclusion, ChatGPT estimated that the chance of a collapse to $50K by New Year’s Eve is in the 5% – 15% range. The highest probability is for the price to trade between $70,000 and $110,000, whereas the odds of a new rally above $120,000 are 30% – 40%.

    Grok argued that the plunge to such a low level is possible but unlikely based on current analyst consensus, historical patterns, and macroeconomic tailwinds.

    “A drop to $50,000 would require a ~47% further decline from today’s levels, which would be an extreme event even for Bitcoin’s volatile history. While risks exist, most forecasts point to stabilization or upside by December 31, 2025,” it added.

    It claimed that the potential lowering of interest rates in the US could fuel the resurgence that bulls are awaiting. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 10. Just a few weeks ago, the chances of a 0.25% rate cut were 90%, but currently, the “no change” option is estimated at 51%.

    Fed Decision in December, Source: Polymarket

    Other Forecasts

    Perplexity shared a similar thesis, considering a collapse of that type, “a lower-probability scenario.” It suggested that BTC will continue trading above $85,000 until the end of the year, even speculating that the price may skyrocket to $190,000 under bullish cases.

    “Bitcoin crashing to $50,000 before the end of 2025 is not the most likely outcome, but it remains a plausible downside risk if adverse macroeconomic or regulatory events worsen. Current technical and fundamental analysis generally indicate a higher base level nearer $85,000-$100,000 with strong long-term bullish momentum overall,” it summarized.

    Last but not least, we sought the opinion of Google’s Gemini. It stated that a major banking crisis, a rise in interest rates in the United States, or a large-scale security exploit on a well-known exchange can trigger a drop to $50K.

    On the other hand, bullish factors like the institutional adoption following the introduction of spot BTC ETFs and the increasing acceptance of the asset as digital gold make this improbable.

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  • Saylor Shoots Down Sale Rumors: ‘Strategy Bought BTC Every Day This Week’

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    BTC’s volatility comes with the territory, said Saylor.

    The cryptocurrency markets tumbled hard on Friday once again, with BTC leading the losses with a nosedive to under $94,000, which became a six-month low.

    Amid the overall uncertainty and market panic, reports emerged at one point claiming that the ultimate bitcoin bull – Michael Saylor – and his company had begun to sell off significant portions of their massive holdings.

    No Such Thing, Says Saylor

    Although the actual claims that Strategy had been selling came from some rather small accounts (at first) with little credibility, they were quickly picked up and reshared by more established people within the community, some with more than 500,000 followers on X. Consequently, panic spread rapidly among some community members, but most seemed unfazed as they refused to believe that Strategy will indeed sell.

    Saylor, the company’s bitcoin champion and co-founder, refuted the rumors on X and during an interview with CNBC. In fact, he doubled down on the asset, as he has done multiple times in the past during other such intense corrections, and noted that Strategy used the dip opportunity to accumulate more every day this week.

    During the aforementioned CNBC interview, he explained that such volatility is expected in risk-on assets like BTC. He advised people who want to have bitcoin exposure to prepare for similar events, but to focus on a broader (4-year) scale in which the cryptocurrency outperforms every asset class.

    Additionally, he said Strategy doesn’t have any trigger points in which it would be under pressure to dispose of its BTC holdings, and even an 80% drop would not harm it.

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    Before a new announcement comes on Monday about a Strategy purchase, the company’s known holdings following the last one stood at 641,692 BTC. Even with BTC’s correction, this stash is worth almost $62 billion.

    Arkham Explains

    Some reports claimed that Arkham Intelligence had insisted that Strategy indeed sold off, but the company also refuted these speculations and explained what actually took place. It outlined Strategy’s transfer of 43,415 BTC to more than 100 different addresses from Coinbase Custody to a new custodian.

    “This does not mean that Strategy has sold their BTC, nor do transfers from Arkham’s Strategy entity automatically imply the sale of those assets,” its post reads.

    The team reassured that Strategy “regularly undergoes wallet/custodian rotations,” and that most of the movements were reported Friday morning as a “continuation of those transfers.”

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  • How Liquidity Stress and Tax Moves Are Dragging Bitcoin Down

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    The recent U.S. government shutdown caused a liquidity crunch, adding pressure and pulling billions from the financial system.

    Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below $95,000 as U.S.-centric selling pressures and liquidity tightening converge to weigh heavily on the market.

    Analysts are now warning that the drop is not a mere price fluctuation but a structural correction shaped by long-term holder profit-taking, fiscal constraints, and short-term investor stress.

    A Perfect Storm of U.S. Selling Pressure

    According to an analysis from XWIN Research Japan, the Coinbase Premium Index has been negative for weeks, meaning BTC is trading at a lower price on the U.S.-based exchange compared to international platforms, a clear signal that American investors are selling more aggressively than their global counterparts. This is creating a repeated pattern where Bitcoin recovers during Asian and European hours, only to reverse sharply when U.S. markets open.

    The selling is not limited to short-term speculators. On-chain data shows that long-term holders across various cohorts, from those holding for six months to as long as seven years, are all taking profits at the same time. As noted by analysts like Will Clemente and confirmed by Fidelity, this widespread selling is a strong indicator of year-end tax optimization, with U.S. investors locking in gains to finalize their 2025 tax positions.

    Furthermore, the recent U.S. government shutdown created a significant liquidity crunch, with the temporary halt in federal spending causing the government to run a surplus that pulled billions of dollars out of the financial system.

    XWIN suggested that this, combined with fading hopes for a December interest rate cut, weakened risk appetite across U.S. markets, dragging down equities, crypto-related stocks, and Bitcoin in unison.

    Market Psychology and the Search for a Bottom

    The current downturn is pushing the market into a painful but necessary cleansing phase. As analyst MorenoDV_ explained, the market is testing the resolve of short-term investors. They noted that the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is hovering near 0.9, a level that historically signals capitulation.

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    When this ratio falls below 1, it means the average recent buyer is holding at a loss, and a break below 0.9 could trigger a final wave of selling that often forms a durable market bottom.

    Traders are now watching key price levels for signs of stability. As of November 14, analysts identified major on-chain support around $95,900, where a significant number of BTC were last moved. A decisive break below this threshold could see the price quickly descend toward the next support zones near $82,000.

    The rejection of the flagship cryptocurrency at the $107,000 resistance level earlier this week confirmed the bearish trend, with the asset now trading below its 200-day moving average, a widely watched indicator of long-term momentum.

    While the mood is pessimistic, the intense selling pressure from U.S. investors is viewed by many as a temporary, seasonal phenomenon.

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  • BTC Plunges to a 6-Month Low – More Blood Ahead or Bottom Near?

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    Bitcoin has broken below the $100,000 mark. As of press time, the price sits at $97,1000, down 6% over the last 24 hours and 4% in the past seven days.

    Meanwhile, volume remains high, and sellers continue to control the market. Traders are watching key levels to assess whether more downside is likely.

    Price Rejected at $107K, Trend Turns Lower

    The $107,000 zone once again acted as unbreakable resistance. Bitcoin failed to move above it, then quickly reversed. Michaël van de Poppe noted the rejection led to a move below $100,000, which swept the previous lows. He said a move back above $100,700 is needed to change the current trend.

    Notably, the short-term structure shows consistent lower highs and lower lows. Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that BTC has now broken below the June low around $98,000. He also noted that both the daily 200EMA and 200MA have been lost. These are widely followed by traders and funds, and their loss suggests trend weakness.

    Daan added that spot selling has picked up. He observed 14 consecutive 15-minute red candles, showing steady sell pressure. Some short covering could take place around this area, but resistance remains above.

    On-Chain Data Points to Thin Support Below

    Glassnode’s URPD chart shows that most BTC was last moved around $95,930, with around 230,728 units at that price. This level now acts as a major support zone.

    Ali Martinez, a market analyst, pointed out that the next key levels are $82,045 and $66,900. They also show high UTXO activity, with 135,789 BTC and 213,578 BTC moved there.

    Between $95,930 and $82,000, the chart shows lower on-chain activity. This means fewer holders have history in that range, so the price could drop quickly if the current support breaks.

    In addition, analyst Crypto Patel commented that BTC dropped as expected after retesting the $106K–$107K zone, adding that the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci range is now key.

    “If it fails, BTC could slide below $80K.”

    Source: Crypto Patel/X

    As CryptoPotato reported, the $94,000 area is also being watched. It aligns with the 66-week exponential moving average and an unfilled CME futures gap. These gaps are often filled later, so this zone may still draw a price.

    Whales and Miners Send Coins to Exchanges

    Large BTC holders have started moving units to Binance. Inflows had been quiet in the past months but have now increased. This shift in behavior has added to selling pressure.

    Miners have also stepped up their exchange activity. Their transfers have risen in the fourth quarter, adding more supply to the market. Combined with whale activity, this has kept price action weak.

    The post BTC Plunges to a 6-Month Low – More Blood Ahead or Bottom Near? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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  • Pro-Crypto Attorney John Deaton Enters U.S. Senate Race Again

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    Deaton barely mentioned crypto in his new campaign, unlike his crypto-focused approach during the race against Warren last year.

    Barely a year after losing to the anti-crypto Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, Republican pro-crypto attorney John Deaton has entered the Senate race again. Deaton is making another bid to become a senator in Massachusetts by running in the mid-term elections next year.

    The circumstances surrounding his loss to Warren last year have changed significantly. While he had a shot at winning previously due to the state of crypto policy in the U.S., it is believed that his chances have become slimmer this time. Next year, the pro-crypto lawyer will run against Democratic Senator Ed Markey, the state’s two-term junior senator. Markey intends to run for his third term in 2026.

    Deaton Runs For Senate Again

    According to a campaign tweet Deaton posted on November 11, he is running for Senate to fight for struggling families who are trying to build a life from scratch.

    The lawyer built his campaign against Senator Warren around pro-crypto policies, but this time, there is barely any mention of such legislation. This is because Trump’s inauguration to the White House brought about numerous positive changes in the U.S. cryptocurrency landscape.

    Despite running a pro-crypto campaign last year, Deaton lost to Warren by 20 points, accumulating only 40% of the votes cast. CryptoPotato reported that Warren garnered over 718,760 votes, representing 59.8%, while Deaton received approximately 481,117 votes.

    Since the government has introduced new rules that favor cryptocurrencies and companies in the sector, Deaton is now focusing his campaign on the cost of living, especially for working families.

    Creating a More Affordable Massachusetts

    The pro-XRP attorney insists that Markey has been absent while families are struggling. He believes Massachusetts is in trouble due to the high costs of energy, childcare, and housing. Deaton aims to create a more affordable state for working families, support veterans, combat inflation, provide accessible healthcare, and improve schools.

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    “It’s time for leaders who know how to fight and deliver results. I’m running for the United States Senate to do just that,” Deaton stated.

    It is worth mentioning that while Deaton made no mention of crypto on his campaign issues page, he is accepting donations in several digital assets. These cryptocurrencies include bitcoin (BTC) ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), and some meme coins like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Dogwifhat (WIF).

    Meanwhile, Deaton is not the only candidate running against Markey. U.S. Democratic Representative Seth Moulton is also challenging Markey on the basis that Massachusetts needs a new generation of leadership in the Senate.

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  • 300K BTC Liquidated: How Institutions Are Reshaping the Crypto Market

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    Institutions and ETFs now absorb most BTC sales, signaling a silent transfer of wealth in the crypto market.

    Bitcoin’s long-term holders have quietly offloaded nearly 300,000 BTC, worth around $33 billion, since July 2025, according to on-chain data shared by market analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera.

    The massive rotation, largely absorbed by ETFs and corporate treasuries, marks what the expert is calling the most significant structural shift in Bitcoin’s ownership since the asset’s inception.

    The Great Wealth Transfer

    According to Perera’s analysis, shared on his Substack The 100,000 Question, long-term holders, wallets that haven’t been used for more than 155 days, have been selling BTC to institutions through private deals and ETF setups instead of public exchanges. The result: a silent but sweeping transfer of wealth.

    BlackRock and Fidelity’s spot Bitcoin ETFs now control about 1.4 million BTC, representing $139 billion in assets under management. After a $2.9 billion outflow in October, inflows returned sharply in early November, with $300 million entering the market within 72 hours.

    Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas contextualized the turbulence on November 11, noting that the $2.7 billion in outflows this past month equaled just 1.5% of total ETF assets, evidence that 98.5% of holdings remain steady.

    Despite the scale of selling, Perera said BTC has exhibited stability, trading between $95,000 and $106,000 with volatility dropping to 35%, nearly half its historical average, while unrealized losses remain minimal at 3.1%. These trends mean that institutions, not retail traders, are anchoring the flagship cryptocurrency’s price behavior.

    A New Market Reality Emerges

    This fundamental change in ownership is rendering traditional Bitcoin cycle theory obsolete. The post-halving period, which historically produced returns exceeding 150%, has yielded only a 41% increase this time.

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    According to Perera, the reason is structural: the standing bid from ETFs and corporate treasuries like Strategy, which now holds more than 641,000 BTC, has prevented the deep drawdowns that characterized previous market cycles.

    The community is divided on what comes next. Some analysts point to persistent resistance, with an assessment from XWIN Research Japan revealing that, despite bullish news, a “wall” between $107,000 and $118,000 has been difficult to break due to ongoing long-term holder distribution.

    Looking at the market, after reaching an all-time high above $126,000 in early October, BTC corrected and is now changing hands near $104,500. It is down roughly 8% over the past 30 days but remains up 18% for the year.

    According to Perera’s analysis, a sustained hold above $100,000, backed by consistent institutional inflows, could pave the way for the next leg upward, while a break below could test the next major support level near $88,500.

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    Wayne Jones

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  • Bitcoin’s $107K–$118K Wall: Why Bullish News Isn’t Enough to Break Through

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    XWIN Research Japan says bullish headlines can’t offset LTH selloffs and fading conviction in the current cycle.

    Bitcoin (BTC) climbed toward $110,000 over the weekend but failed to get there, despite a wave of optimistic news ranging from Donald Trump’s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” to signs of a U.S. government shutdown deal.

    According to new research by XWIN Research Japan, a blend of macro pressures, long-term holder selloffs, and weak sentiment has created a resistance zone between $107,000 and $118,000 that bullish headlines alone can’t break.

    A Rally Meets Resistance

    The recent price move began on November 9, when BTC jumped from under $102,000 to nearly $104,000. This uptick coincided with a promise from President Trump for a $2,000 per-person tariff dividend for many Americans, a proposal that sparked memories of the stimulus checks that preceded the 2020-2021 crypto market expansion.

    The optimism continued into November 10, with prices pushing past $107,000 amid hopes for a resolution to the U.S. government shutdown. However, the rally lost steam soon after, going back down to the $105,000 level, with XWIN Research identifying several immediate headwinds facing the flagship cryptocurrency.

    “First, macro pressure: although the Fed cut rates in October, Chair Powell warned another cut in December isn’t guaranteed. That dampened easing expectations and triggered selling across risk assets,” the report noted.

    Furthermore, while the Trump administration appears friendly to the industry, state-level regulatory crackdowns are still creating uncertainty and discouraging institutional participation.

    However, the biggest barrier XWIN Research identified was on-chain selling from long-term holders (LTHs). The firm pinpointed the $107,000 to $118,000 range as a major resistance zone, noting that LTHs have been increasing their exchange inflows to nearly double the normal levels, creating a friction of supply that absorbs buying pressure.

    The LTH-SOPR metric, which tracks profit-taking by these investors, has fallen significantly since July and now sits near 1.6, which XWIN Research interpreted as “reduced conviction among holders, selling into strength but with less profit margin.”

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    A Market at a Crossroads

    While the immediate picture is one of struggle, certain market metrics suggest a potential inflection point is forming. On-chain analyst MorenoDV_ pointed out that a key liquidity pattern has reappeared.

    According to them, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has returned to its lower historical range, a zone that marked cycle bottoms in mid-2021 and throughout 2024. This indicates a growing pool of stablecoin “dry powder” on the sidelines, historically a precursor to significant market recoveries as that capital rotates into assets like Bitcoin.

    At the same time, the market is showing classic signs of a liquidity-testing phase, with BTC’s short-term volatility spiking above its 30-day average, a condition that often comes before a major directional move.

    This environment has analysts divided, with some, like Doctor Profit, maintaining a cautious stance, warning that a breakdown below the key “Golden Line” support near $99,200 is “only a matter of time” and could erase bullish momentum.

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  • Galaxy Research Slashes Bitcoin (BTC) 2025 Target to $120K Amid Market Turmoil

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    Bitcoin’s three-year bull market remains structurally intact if ~$100K holds, according to Galaxy Research.

    The crypto market continues to navigate in choppy conditions, following the devastating crash on October 10th that was arguably one of the most severe and rapid liquidation events. The flash crash triggered massive liquidation volumes across the market, which led to cascading liquidations within hours that swept through leveraged positions.

    The fallout from these liquidations has contributed to broader market weakness, with many assets struggling to regain momentum. As a result of the market chaos, Bitcoin’s year-end target has been revised downward.

    Bitcoin Target Slashed

    Galaxy Research highlighted in a recent tweet that 72 of the top 100 crypto assets by market capitalization are currently trading at least 50% below their previous all-time highs. Macro factors have compounded these market challenges. According to the platform, this year has been characterized by significant whale distribution, rotation into competing narratives such as AI, gold, and stablecoins, and underperformance among BTC-focused treasury companies.

    Hence, Galaxy Research stated that it has now revised its 2025 year-end target for Bitcoin from $185,000 to $120,000. However, it explained that Bitcoin has entered a new phase and added that the asset is in its ‘maturity era’ – in which institutional absorption, passive flows, and lower volatility dominate.

    As such, if Bitcoin can maintain the ~$100,000 level, Galaxy Research said that the almost three-year bull market will remain structurally intact even though the pace of future gains may be slower.

    “Still, we think nearing prior all-time highs before year-end is a reasonable target for short-term bulls.”

    Base-Building Phase Underway

    Coinbase Institutional views October’s crypto sell-off as a potential market reset instead of a cycle top. In its recent insights, the platform said that excess leverage has been cleared, fundamentals remain solid, and institutional investors are gradually returning.

    It also found that smart capital is targeting EVM chains, real-world assets (RWAs), and yield protocols, which reflects selective re-risking rather than a retreat. Although liquidity gaps persist and macro uncertainty continues, structural demand is strengthening. The firm sees this as a “base-building” phase that could set the foundation for the next upward move in the crypto market.

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    Adding perspective on investor behavior, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz attributed the slowdown to long-term holders rebalancing their portfolios after an extended bull run. He noted that while the diversification of large, concentrated positions may temporarily weigh on prices, it is healthy for the medium and long term.

    Novogratz also suggested that cycle highs have likely not yet been reached. Looking ahead, he expects a new Federal Reserve chair by year-end to take a more dovish approach, which could provide the narrative needed to support the next much-anticipated upward leg in crypto prices.

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  • Bitcoin Dips Below $100K Again as Analyst Waves the White Flag – ‘See You in 4 Years’

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    BTC is down by over four grand since its relief rally a few days ago.

    The bears are back in town, and BTC has dropped below $100,000 for the second time this week as the overall market sentiment remains highly bearish.

    This has prompted even some of the most optimistic analysts to change their tune on bitcoin, including Merlijn The Trader, who outlined a crucial warning sign that has led to numerous rejections in the past or even the start of a subsequent bear market.

    His warning comes as BTC was stopped at just over $104,000 on Wednesday and pushed south to $100,500 yesterday. The asset managed to remain within a six-digit price territory on Thursday, but it gave in minutes ago and dipped to $99,700 (on Bitstamp).

    This is the second such decline below the coveted $100,000 line this week after the Tuesday crash that pushed it to a five-month low of $99,000. Altcoin Sherpa weighed in on the matter as well, suggesting that if the $100,000 support fails to hold, the cryptocurrency could probably go to [the] low $90ks minimium.”

    Naturally, the altcoins have followed suit with notable price declines. Ethereum is down by over 5% in the past day and is close to breaking below $3,200 once again. XRP has plunged beneath the $2.20 support after a similar daily drop. SOL, WBT, and HYPE have experienced identical corrections.

    These volatile price moves have harmed over-leveraged traders once again. More than 220,000 such market participants have been wrecked in the past day, with the total value of liquidations rising to almost $700 million. The single-largest took place on Hyperliquid and was worth over $15 million.

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    Liquidation Data on CoinGlass
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  • All the Bullish Narratives Are Still There: So Why Is Bitcoin (BTC) Breaking Down?

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    BTC, ETH, and SOL are losing all major SMAs signals amid deteriorating structure, even though bullish catalysts remain “on paper.”

    After a devastating downturn this week, Bitcoin climbed above $103,000, posting a gain of just over 1% in the past 24 hours. This has revived hopes of a recovery.

    But fresh data suggest that the crypto asset went below critical trendlines, and analysts say multiple weekly closes under its 50-week moving average confirm the cycle top.

    Vanishing Demand

    Year-to-date, both gold and the S&P 500 have now outperformed Bitcoin, despite the dozens of seemingly bullish catalysts that the market has been leaning on into year-end. These include rate cuts, regulation, stablecoins, tokenization, liquidity, major trade agreements, strong GDP prints, Big Tech earnings, the “Big Beautiful Bill,” and the expectation of pro-crypto policy under US President Donald Trump.

    Michael Nadeau, the founder of ‘The DeFi Report,’ says the bull case still looks “good on paper,” but crypto market participants appear to be stuck in a zone between “hope and disbelief” as sentiment weakens and fundamentals deteriorate. Momentum data shows BTC, ETH, and SOL have all lost their 50, 100, and 200-day SMAs.

    The most critical line that the analysts are watching is $102,000, which happens to be Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average. In previous cycles, once BTC posted multiple weekly closes below its 50-week MA, the cycle top was already in. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s longer 200-week moving average stands at $54,700.

    Nadeau expects the asset’s price to eventually converge toward that 200-week MA (which is still rising) at the bottom of the bear market, if it is indeed heading into one.

    BTC, ETH, and SOL are now nearing oversold RSI levels (below 30) while longer tail altcoins are already oversold, which is normally a bull-market “buy the dip” signal. But the flow situation is flashing a warning. Bitcoin ETFs have been one of the most successful financial products in history from a net flows and AUM perspective, but since October 10, these vehicles have posted $1.4 billion in net outflows.

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    ‘Hopium’ In The Market

    According to the report, the issue is not the size of outflows, but the absence of inflows, which points to demand depletion. Strategy currently holds more than 641,000 BTC. From October 2023 through July 2025, the firm purchased 476,000 BTC, equal to 1.19x the total BTC mined in that period. But in the last three months, the firm bought only 12,200 BTC. It currently holds 12x more BTC than the second-largest corporate treasury, and represents roughly 65% of the BTC Treasury market.

    With ETF demand fading and the largest buyer pausing, the report turns to on-chain cohorts. Long-term holders are selling more, indicating the third distribution wave of this cycle. The report says price expansions historically begin only after long-term holders move from distribution back to steady accumulation. In previous cycle peaks (2017 and 2021), it took 9.5-10 months for the price to bottom after long-term holders resumed net accumulation.

    Those coins are now being transferred to short-term holders, who often end up capitulating later at lower levels. This is when long-term holders return. As far as the sentiment is concerned, Nadeau said that it is still anchored to “buy the dip” because that strategy worked for almost two years straight.

    Nadeau also pointed to a recent essay from macro investor Jordi Visser wherein the latter described that Bitcoin is in a “silent IPO” phase and added that the market’s reaction to bullish “therapy-style” narratives shows that there is still a huge amount of “hopium” left in the system.

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