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Tag: bitcoin analysis

  • Engine Stalled: How The $8 Billion ‘October Shock’ Left Bitcoin’s Spot Market In A Liquidity Trap

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    Bitcoin is finding near-term relief after a sharp rebound toward the $70,000 level, offering temporary optimism following weeks of sustained pressure. The move has improved short-term momentum and eased immediate downside risk. However, the broader market remains characterized by indecision, as many analysts argue that this advance may represent a relief rally within a larger corrective structure rather than the start of a renewed bull phase.

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    According to analysis from XWIN Research Japan, while price has recovered meaningfully from recent lows, underlying derivatives data suggest caution. Open Interest has fallen significantly from prior cycle highs, reflecting an extensive deleveraging process across futures markets. Importantly, the recent price decline occurred alongside contracting Open Interest, indicating that forced liquidations and derivatives-driven position unwinds were primary drivers of the selloff rather than sustained spot distribution.

    Bitcoin Open Interest All Exchanges | Source: CryptoQuant

    Such resets can be constructive, as they reduce excessive leverage and stabilize funding conditions. Nonetheless, a cleaner derivatives landscape does not automatically translate into fresh structural demand. Without clear evidence of renewed capital inflows or expanding spot participation, the current rebound may remain vulnerable to renewed volatility.

    Muted Exchange Flows Suggest Stabilization, Not Yet Structural Strength

    Recent exchange flow data adds nuance to Bitcoin’s current recovery phase. Binance’s Fund Flow Ratio remains subdued near 0.012, indicating that inflows relative to total BTC reserves on the platform are limited. In practical terms, this suggests that immediate sell-side pressure has not intensified, even during the recent move toward the mid-$60K region. The absence of a spike in this metric implies that investors are not rushing to transfer coins to exchanges in panic, which typically accompanies more aggressive distribution phases.

    Bitcoin Binance Fund Flow Ratio | Source: CryptoQuant
    Bitcoin Binance Fund Flow Ratio | Source: CryptoQuant

    However, low inflows should not automatically be interpreted as accumulation. The medium-term trend in the ratio’s moving averages continues to drift downward, indicating that sustained structural demand has yet to reassert itself. Markets can stabilize without transitioning directly into expansion, particularly when liquidity conditions remain cautious.

    Additional context from derivatives positioning reinforces this ambiguity. With leverage still relatively compressed, upward price movements can disproportionately trigger short liquidations, generating rallies driven more by position unwinds than fresh capital deployment. This type of rebound often improves sentiment temporarily but may lack durability without stronger spot participation.

    Overall, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from active selling toward stabilization. Confirmation of a genuine bullish reversal will likely require consistent inflows, improving liquidity, and clearer evidence of renewed investor demand.

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    Bitcoin Tests Support After Sharp Correction

    Bitcoin remains under pressure following a pronounced correction from its recent highs, with price currently stabilizing near the $68,000 region. The weekly structure shows a clear loss of upward momentum after rejection around the $110K–$120K zone, followed by a decisive breakdown below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. This shift typically signals weakening intermediate trend strength rather than simple short-term volatility.

    BTC holding key demand level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
    BTC holding key demand level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

    Price is now hovering close to the 200-week moving average, historically a critical structural support during transitional market phases. Holding this level could help stabilize sentiment and potentially define a medium-term floor. However, a sustained breakdown below it would likely increase downside risk, as it would confirm deterioration in long-term trend structure.

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    Volume dynamics also warrant attention. The recent selloff occurred with elevated activity compared with preceding consolidation phases, suggesting that distribution — not merely thin liquidity — contributed to the decline. That said, volume has started to moderate as price consolidates, indicating reduced urgency among sellers.

    Bitcoin appears to be transitioning into a defensive consolidation phase. Recovery above the shorter moving averages would be required to restore bullish momentum, while failure to hold current support could extend the corrective cycle further.

    Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

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    Sebastian Villafuerte

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  • The Great Bitcoin Handover: $8.2 Billion BTC Swamps Binance As Retail Momentum Fades

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    Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $69,000 level as persistent selling pressure continues to dominate the short-term market structure. After multiple failed attempts to establish acceptance above this key psychological threshold, price action reflects a defensive environment marked by reduced risk appetite and elevated volatility. Traders remain cautious, with liquidity conditions tightening and momentum favoring sellers rather than sustained accumulation.

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    New on-chain data shared by analyst Maartunn adds another layer to the current landscape. According to his insights, Bitcoin whales are firmly dominating the market structure at this stage of the cycle. Over the past 30 days alone, approximately $8.24 billion worth of whale-held BTC has flowed into Binance, marking the highest level of large-holder inflows to the exchange in the last 14 months. Such a concentration of activity suggests that major participants are actively repositioning.

    The data also underscores Binance’s continued role as the primary liquidity venue for large-scale transactions. When whale flows accelerate toward exchanges at this magnitude, it often signals heightened strategic activity — whether for distribution, hedging, or tactical allocation. As Bitcoin consolidates below resistance, the behavior of these dominant market participants may play a decisive role in shaping the next directional move.

    Whale Dominance Intensifies As Retail Momentum Cools

    Maartunn further detailed the 30-day flow breakdown, offering a clearer view of how market participation is evolving. Over the past month, whale inflows to Binance have reached $8.24 billion and continue to trend higher. In comparison, retail inflows total approximately $11.91 billion but have begun to flatten. As a result, the retail-to-whale ratio currently stands at 1.45 and is steadily compressing.

    Binance Whale to Exchange Flow | Source: CryptoQuant

    Although retail participation remains visible, its momentum is cooling. The pace of smaller deposits has slowed, suggesting declining conviction or reduced speculative activity among short-term traders. In contrast, whale deposits have increased consistently over the same period, indicating that larger entities are either actively positioning or reallocating capital with greater urgency.

    This dynamic is narrowing the gap between large and small participants on the exchange. When whale flows accelerate while retail flows plateau, market structure tends to become more top-heavy, with price increasingly influenced by institutional-scale actors rather than fragmented retail activity.

    The key takeaway is clear: large players are becoming more dominant on Binance, while smaller participants are gradually losing relative influence. In the current environment, Bitcoin’s next directional move may depend more heavily on whale strategy than retail sentiment.

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    Bitcoin Tests Critical Support As Downtrend Accelerates

    Bitcoin’s 3-day chart reflects a decisive loss of momentum following the rejection near the $120,000 region in late 2025. Since that peak, price structure has transitioned into a clear corrective phase characterized by lower highs and accelerating downside pressure. The most recent leg lower shows a sharp breakdown from the $90,000–$95,000 consolidation zone, with BTC now hovering around the $68,000 area.

    BTC testing critical demand | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
    BTC testing critical demand | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

    Technically, Bitcoin is trading below the shorter-term moving average, which has rolled over and is sloping downward, reinforcing near-term bearish momentum. The intermediate moving average is flattening and beginning to turn lower, signaling weakening trend strength. Meanwhile, the long-term average remains upward sloping but sits well below current price levels, suggesting that while the macro structure has not fully collapsed, the market is in a transitional phase.

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    Volume expanded noticeably during the recent selloff, indicating active distribution rather than a passive drift lower. However, the latest candles show some stabilization near the $65,000–$70,000 support region, an area that previously acted as a breakout zone earlier in the cycle.

    A sustained reclaim of the $75,000–$80,000 range would be required to restore bullish structure. Failure to hold current levels could expose deeper retracement toward long-term trend support.

    Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

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    Sebastian Villafuerte

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  • Bitcoin Supply In Profit Sets The Stage For Bullish Cross In Q1 2026

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    Bitcoin continues to struggle below the $90,000 mark, reflecting a market that has failed to recover bullish momentum after weeks of consolidation. Repeated attempts to reclaim higher levels have stalled, reinforcing growing skepticism among analysts who now openly discuss the risk of a broader bear market extending into 2026. Sentiment remains fragile, dominated by caution and reduced risk appetite, as traders wait for clearer confirmation of the next directional move.

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    Still, not everyone is convinced the bullish cycle is over. Some investors argue that Bitcoin is entering a transitional phase rather than a full trend reversal. According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler, the current setup in Bitcoin’s “Supply in Profit” metric offers important context.

    Adler highlights that Supply in Profit has fallen sharply from October peaks above 19 million BTC to roughly 13.5 million BTC following the correction from all-time highs. This decline pushed the short-term 30-day moving average well below the 90-day average, creating a gap of around 1.75 million BTC.

    Bitcoin Supply in Profit Trend | Source: CryptoQuant

    While a similar configuration appeared in 2022 before an extended bearish period, Adler notes a key difference this time: the 365-day moving average remains historically elevated. Importantly, the 30-day average appears to have formed a local bottom in mid-December and is beginning to stabilize.

    Adler argues that if Bitcoin can hold current price levels or higher, this stabilization could mark the early groundwork for a renewed bullish phase later in 2026.

    Supply in Profit Signals a Critical Inflection Window

    Axel Adler also shared a forward-looking forecast chart tracking the convergence between the 30-day and 90-day moving averages of Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit metric, offering a potential roadmap for the next structural shift. The model extrapolates current rates of change to estimate when a bullish configuration—defined by SMA 30 crossing above SMA 90—could emerge.

    Forecast chart of SMA 30 and SMA 90 Supply in Profit convergence | Source: Axel Adler
    Forecast chart of SMA 30 and SMA 90 Supply in Profit convergence | Source: Axel Adler

    According to Adler’s analysis, the gap between these two moving averages is currently narrowing at a pace of roughly 28,000 BTC per day. Importantly, this convergence is not being driven by a sharp recovery in Supply in Profit, but by a mechanical decline in the SMA 90.

    As peak October values, when Supply in Profit reached 19–20 million BTC, roll out of the 90-day calculation window, downward pressure on the longer average creates a temporary “tailwind” for convergence. This effect is expected to persist through late January.

    If current conditions hold, Adler projects a potential bullish cross forming between late February and early March. However, the forecast remains highly price-sensitive. Supply elasticity to price is estimated at 1.3x, meaning a 10% price decline could trigger a 13% drop in Supply in Profit.

    The $70,000 level is critical according to the forecast. Below it, SMA 30 would likely fall faster than SMA 90, invalidating the convergence thesis and reopening a 2022-style prolonged recovery scenario.

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    Bitcoin Price Struggles Below Key Resistance

    Bitcoin continues to trade below the $90,000 threshold, reflecting a market that remains structurally weak despite short-term stabilization. The chart shows BTC consolidating after a sharp breakdown from the $100,000–$105,000 region, a move that decisively flipped prior support into resistance. This rejection marked a clear loss of bullish control and initiated a deeper corrective phase.

    BTC consolidates below $90K | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
    BTC consolidates below $90K | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

    Price now compresses below the downward-sloping 50-day and 100-day moving averages.. This configuration reinforces the prevailing bearish trend and suggests that upside attempts are likely to face supply pressure. The 200-day moving average, currently well above spot price, highlights how far BTC has drifted from its longer-term trend equilibrium.

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    Momentum has cooled notably since the November sell-off. While selling intensity has eased, the absence of strong bullish volume indicates that buyers remain cautious. The recent price action resembles a consolidation range rather than a reversal, with BTC oscillating between roughly $85,000 and $90,000. This behavior often reflects indecision rather than accumulation.

    For now, $90,000 remains the critical level bulls must reclaim to shift sentiment meaningfully. Failure to do so keeps downside risks in play, with $85,000 acting as near-term support. Until price regains key moving averages, the broader structure favors continued range-bound or corrective price action.

    Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

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    Sebastian Villafuerte

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  • Why $100,000 Is Bitcoin’s Most Important Resistance Level

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    Bitcoin is struggling to regain momentum below the $90,000 level, yet it continues to hold above $86,000, reflecting a market gripped by indecision. Price action has narrowed into a tight range, with neither buyers nor sellers able to assert clear control.

    As volatility compresses, apathy has become a defining feature of the current environment, and an increasing number of analysts are openly discussing the possibility that the market is transitioning toward a broader bear phase.

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    While price levels dominate headlines, on-chain data suggests the more important battle is unfolding beneath the surface. According to CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci, Bitcoin’s current positioning cannot be understood by price alone.

    Instead, attention is shifting toward the cost bases of key market participants, particularly whales and Binance spot users. Even with Bitcoin trading around $87,000, the most consequential level sits significantly higher.

    Data shows that the average cost basis of new whales, defined as holders with coins younger than 155 days, is clustered around $100,500. This zone represents a critical break-even threshold for large players who entered the market recently.

    As a result, every approach toward $100,000 carries heightened significance. That level may either trigger distribution, as whales seek to protect capital, or mark the start of renewed accumulation if confidence returns.

    Cost Basis Data Maps Bitcoin Real Support and Resistance

    The report highlights that beneath Bitcoin’s current price action, cost basis data offers a clearer framework for understanding market risk. For Binance spot users, the average cost basis sits near $56,000. This level represents the largest concentration of spot volume in the market and effectively defines the “deep water” zone if conditions deteriorate.

    In a prolonged bearish phase, $56K is where the bulk of spot holders would be tested, making it a critical long-term support area rather than a short-term trading level.

    Bitcoin new whales cost basis, Binance user deposit addresses | Source: CryptoQuant

    Long-term whale positioning adds another important layer. The cost basis for whales holding Bitcoin longer than 155 days is clustered around $40,000. This means these participants are still sitting on profits of more than 2x, even after the recent correction.

    That profit cushion helps explain the rise in realized gains seen over recent weeks. For many long-term holders, current prices already represent a satisfactory exit, increasing the incentive to distribute into strength rather than aggressively accumulate.

    Taken together, the data reframes Bitcoin’s market structure. The key short-term ceiling remains near $100,000, where newer whales approach breakeven and supply tends to emerge. On the downside, $56,000 stands out as the level where spot market conviction would be most severely tested.

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    Bitcoin Consolidates Above Key Weekly Support as Momentum Cools

    Bitcoin is trading near the $88,700 level on the weekly chart, stabilizing after a sharp pullback from the $120,000–$125,000 highs reached earlier this cycle. While the broader uptrend from 2024 remains intact, recent price action signals a clear slowdown in momentum. The market has shifted from an impulsive expansion phase into a corrective and consolidative structure, with volatility compressing around a critical support zone.

    BTC consolidates around critical level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
    BTC consolidates around critical level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

    Technically, Bitcoin is holding just above its rising medium-term moving average, which has acted as dynamic support throughout this bull cycle. The rejection above $110,000 marked a decisive loss of upside control, and the failure to quickly reclaim that zone suggests distribution rather than a brief pause. At the same time, price remains well above the long-term moving average, reinforcing that this move is still corrective within a larger trend, not yet a confirmed trend reversal.

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    Volume dynamics support this interpretation. Selling pressure expanded during the initial breakdown, but recent weeks show declining volume as price stabilizes between roughly $86,000 and $90,000. This points to seller exhaustion, though buyers have yet to step in with conviction.

    Structurally, the $86,000–$88,000 range is pivotal. Holding this zone keeps the higher-timeframe bullish structure alive. A clean breakdown would expose deeper downside. While a recovery above $95,000 would be needed to reassert bullish momentum and reopen the path toward prior highs.

    Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

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    Sebastian Villafuerte

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  • The Gold-to-Bitcoin Rotation Narrative Gains Strength: A Data-Driven Review

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    Bitcoin is once again attempting to reclaim the $90,000 level, but price action remains capped below this key psychological threshold. Despite several short-lived relief rallies, momentum has failed to follow through, reinforcing growing concerns that the broader market structure is weakening.

    As volatility persists and upside attempts stall, an increasing number of analysts are beginning to openly discuss the possibility that Bitcoin may be transitioning into a bear market phase. Sentiment across derivatives and spot markets has turned noticeably more cautious, with risk appetite continuing to fade.

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    In this context, a recent report by Darkfost draws attention to a familiar but controversial narrative: capital rotation from gold into Bitcoin. With gold setting a new all-time high above $4,420 per ounce, the idea that investors may soon shift capital toward Bitcoin is resurfacing across the market.

    Historically, this narrative has gained traction during periods when traditional safe-haven assets outperform, fueling speculation that Bitcoin could follow as an alternative store of value.

    However, Darkfost cautions that this assumption is far from well-grounded. While the rotation thesis has been widely repeated throughout this cycle, empirical evidence linking gold outperformance directly to sustained Bitcoin inflows remains weak.

    Rather than signaling an imminent bullish turn, the current setup suggests that Bitcoin remains vulnerable, caught between macro-driven narratives and deteriorating internal market structure.

    Testing the Gold-to-Bitcoin Rotation Thesis

    Darkfost emphasizes that the popular narrative of capital rotating from gold into Bitcoin lacks direct, verifiable evidence. To address this, he constructed a comparative framework to identify periods where such rotations may have occurred. He did this without assuming a causal relationship. The core issue, as he notes, is that on-chain and market data cannot conclusively prove that capital exiting gold is the same capital entering Bitcoin.

    Gold – Bitcoin Rotation | Source: CryptoQuant

    To approximate potential rotation phases, Darkfost applied a simple but disciplined signal structure. A positive signal appears when Bitcoin is trading above its 180-day moving average while gold is trading below its own 180-day moving average. In theory, this configuration suggests relative strength shifting toward Bitcoin. Conversely, a negative signal is triggered when both Bitcoin and gold trade below their respective 180-day moving averages. Indicating a broad risk-off environment rather than a rotation.

    This methodology allows historical comparison across cycles, highlighting moments where relative performance diverged. However, the results challenge the simplicity of the narrative. As shown on the chart, these signals do not produce consistent or reliable outcomes. In several instances, supposed rotation periods failed to generate sustained upside for Bitcoin. At other times, Bitcoin rallied independently of gold’s trend.

    The takeaway is clear: capital rotation between gold and Bitcoin is not an absolute or mechanical process. Market behavior appears far more nuanced. Driven by broader macro conditions, liquidity dynamics, and investor positioning rather than a straightforward asset-to-asset rotation.

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    Price Struggles Below Key Moving Averages

    Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize after a sharp corrective phase, but the chart highlights that price action remains structurally fragile. BTC is currently trading just below the $90,000 level, an area that has flipped from support into near-term resistance following the recent breakdown. While the latest bounce shows short-term buying interest, it has not yet altered the broader bearish structure that formed after the October highs.

    BTC consolidates above key demand level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
    BTC consolidates above key demand level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

    From a trend perspective, Bitcoin is now trading below the 50-3D moving average (blue), which has started to slope downward, signaling weakening momentum. The failure to reclaim this level suggests that recent upside moves are corrective rather than impulsive.

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    Below the current price, the 100-3D moving average (green) sits near the $85,000–$86,000 zone and has acted as interim support during the rebound. A sustained loss of this area would likely expose BTC to a deeper retracement toward the 200-3D moving average (red), currently rising near the low $80,000 region.

    The sell-off was accompanied by elevated volume. While the rebound has occurred on comparatively lighter participation, pointing to a lack of conviction from buyers. Structurally, Bitcoin is consolidating in a lower range. With lower highs and compressed volatility suggesting a pause rather than a trend reversal.

    For bulls, reclaiming and holding above $90,000 and the declining 50-3D moving average is critical to invalidate the bearish bias. Until then, price action favors range-bound trading with downside risk still present.

    Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

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    Sebastian Villafuerte

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  • Bitcoin Must Break Key Supply Clusters To Regain ATH Momentum – Watch These Levels

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    Bitcoin has rallied more than 12% since last week’s sharp drop to the $80,000 low, offering the market a brief moment of relief after an intense period of capitulation. Despite this rebound, fear and uncertainty continue to dominate sentiment, especially following what analysts describe as the largest short-term holder capitulation in Bitcoin’s history.

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    This wave of realized losses—fast, aggressive, and record-breaking—has left many investors questioning whether the recent recovery is sustainable or simply a temporary bounce in a broader downtrend.

    According to new data from Glassnode, the path ahead remains challenging. Analysts explain that Bitcoin must break above the major supply clusters created by top buyers earlier in the cycle if it is to regain meaningful upward momentum.

    These clusters represent areas where a large number of investors previously bought at higher prices and may now look to exit at breakeven, increasing the likelihood of heavy sell-side pressure as BTC climbs.

    Bitcoin Faces Critical Supply Barriers

    Glassnode reports that Bitcoin is now approaching two major supply clusters that will play a decisive role in determining whether the recent rebound can evolve into a sustained recovery. The first cluster sits between $93,000 and $96,000, while the second—much larger and more structurally important—spans $100,000 to $108,000.

    These zones were formed by heavy buying activity earlier in the cycle and represent areas where many investors are currently underwater or sitting near breakeven.

    Bitcoin Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap | Source: Glassnode

     

    Because of this, Glassnode notes that these ranges typically act as strong resistance, as recent buyers who endured the latest drawdown may choose to sell once the price returns to their entry levels. This dynamic can create temporary supply walls, slowing down momentum even in moments of aggressive recovery.

    Bitcoin’s ability to break through these clusters will determine whether it can re-establish a path toward a new all-time high or remain trapped under heavy distribution pressure. The market is now entering a critical phase, with traders closely watching how BTC behaves as it approaches these levels. A clean breakout would signal renewed confidence, while rejection could signal that the broader corrective structure is not yet over.

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    Testing Support After a Sharp Multi-Week Selloff

    Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a market attempting to stabilize after one of the most aggressive drawdowns of the cycle. BTC has rebounded to the $91,500 area following a deep wick to the $80K region last week, signaling that buyers are finally stepping in at key support. This rebound coincides with a strong weekly candle showing a long lower shadow, a classic sign of demand absorption during heavy selloffs.

    BTC consolidates around key level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
    BTC consolidates around key level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

    However, despite this bounce, the broader structure remains fragile. The price is trading below the 50-week moving average, a level that previously acted as reliable support throughout the bull phase. Losing this dynamic support earlier in the month was a significant technical break, and BTC is now attempting to reclaim it from below—typically a challenging move that often acts as resistance.

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    The 100-week moving average around the mid-$80K region has proven critical, halting the decline and serving as the primary area where buyers defended the trend. As long as BTC holds above this zone, the broader market avoids confirming a deeper macro reversal.

    Volume remains elevated, reflecting capitulation-level activity, and the market is now in a decisive phase. A sustained close above $92K–$94K would strengthen recovery prospects, while rejection would risk another retest of the $80K support.

    Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

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  • Massive Bitcoin Bid Walls Spotted On Binance: Bulls Step In With 2,800 BTC Cluster

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    Bitcoin has slipped below the $100,000 mark, now trading around $97,000 for the first time since May, as selling pressure intensifies across the market. Bulls are struggling to defend critical support, and sentiment has turned decidedly fearful, with traders scaling back leverage and rotating into stablecoins amid heightened volatility. Despite this weakness, on-chain data suggests that large buyers may already be positioning for a potential rebound.

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    According to CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn, massive bid walls have been spotted on Binance Futures, signaling that aggressive buyers are stepping in to absorb the recent wave of selling. Historically, such large-scale bids have often coincided with local bottoms, as whales and institutional traders accumulate into weakness.

    This emerging liquidity pattern may suggest growing confidence among deep-pocketed players that Bitcoin’s downside could be limited. However, with macro uncertainty still weighing heavily on the market, traders remain cautious.

    Aggressive Buyers Step In As Bid Walls Signal Dip Accumulation

    According to CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn, recent order book data reveals a strong layer of support forming on Binance Futures, where two major bid clusters have emerged — one around 800 BTC and another stacking up to 2,000 BTC. This concentration of buy orders suggests that large traders, often referred to as aggressive dip buyers, are actively accumulating Bitcoin at current levels around $97,000.

    BTCUSDT Binance Futures | Source: Maartunn

    Bid walls of this size are significant because they indicate a willingness among deep-pocketed investors to absorb selling pressure and defend price levels perceived as undervalued. In practice, such large orders create a temporary price floor, making it harder for BTC to fall further without massive selling volume. This behavior is often observed in early phases of market reversals. Smart money begins building positions while retail sentiment remains fearful.

    Maartunn notes that these clusters reflect renewed confidence from high-volume traders who see long-term value despite the recent correction. If these orders remain active and continue to absorb liquidity, Bitcoin could stabilize above the $95,000–$97,000 range. Historically, periods of strong bid support have preceded short-term relief rallies, suggesting that the current dip may be setting the stage for a broader recovery.

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    Bitcoin Tests Key Support After Losing $100K

    Bitcoin’s price action has turned increasingly fragile, with the asset now trading near $96,800, its lowest level since May. The three-day chart shows a decisive break below the $100,000 psychological threshold, confirming a short-term bearish shift as sellers dominate. Volume has spiked notably in recent sessions, suggesting panic-driven liquidations as traders unwind leveraged positions.

    BTC testing key demand level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
    BTC testing key demand level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

    The 50-day moving average has crossed below the 100-day, signaling fading momentum, while the 200-day moving average — currently near $88,000 — stands as the next central support zone if selling pressure persists. Despite the breakdown, price is showing early signs of stabilization around current levels, hinting that dip buyers may be stepping in.

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    Market structure remains corrective but not fully bearish. Bitcoin has repeatedly found support above its 200-day MA during previous mid-cycle retracements. A pattern that often precedes recovery once selling exhausts. The RSI (not shown here) is likely near oversold territory, reinforcing this view.

    If BTC can reclaim and hold above $100,000, a short-term relief rally toward $105,000–$108,000 could unfold. However, failure to defend $95,000 may accelerate the decline toward $90,000. Overall, the chart reflects a market in consolidation, balancing between capitulation risk and early accumulation.

    Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

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  • Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase Signals Accumulation Before Next Growth Wave

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    Bitcoin continues to trade around the $110,000 level, unable to reclaim higher ground after weeks of volatile price action. The market is still digesting the impact of the October 10 flash crash, which erased billions in open interest and sent shockwaves across altcoins. Despite a gradual recovery in on-chain metrics and institutional inflows, sentiment remains fragile, with traders hesitant to take new long positions.

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    According to top analyst Axel Adler, the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase — a key indicator used to measure speculative pressure and market overheating — has now entered the Bottom or Accumulation zone. This signals a cooling-off period in speculation, suggesting that short-term trading activity is fading while long-term accumulation quietly resumes.

    However, Adler warns that this phase requires stability to play out effectively. For Bitcoin to initiate a sustainable rally, volatility must continue to decrease, and no major macro shocks — such as a surge in gold or US bond demand — should disrupt the current equilibrium. The coming weeks may define whether BTC consolidates or slips into renewed risk-off territory.

    Bitcoin Accumulation Signals Strength, But Stability Is Key

    Axel Adler explains that when the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase drops into the Bottom or Accumulation zone, it often represents a pivotal moment within a broader bull market. Historically, such readings coincide with periods where speculative pressure fades, leverage resets, and market participants begin quietly accumulating positions ahead of the next growth phase. These zones tend to appear after major corrections, when weak hands exit and the market regains structural balance — a necessary condition for sustained recovery.

    Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase | Source: Axel Adler

    This phase reflects a shift from emotional trading to strategic accumulation. During these stages, on-chain activity typically shows increased wallet balances among long-term holders, while short-term traders reduce exposure. However, for this accumulation to translate into a meaningful rally, one critical condition must be met: volatility must decline. High volatility implies uncertainty and risk aversion, discouraging new capital inflows. A gradual cooling of volatility creates the stability needed for market confidence to rebuild.

    The analyst emphasizes that Bitcoin’s current setup requires at least a short stretch — roughly a week — without major negative global catalysts. External shocks such as surging bond yields, geopolitical tension, or renewed macro risk-off sentiment could easily disrupt the fragile recovery process.

    In essence, the market appears to be in a delicate balance: the speculative cycle has cooled enough to allow accumulation, but stability remains the missing piece for momentum to return. If volatility continues to decline and macro conditions hold steady, this accumulation phase could serve as the foundation for Bitcoin’s next major rally, mirroring previous transition points seen in past bull cycles.

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    Price Action Details: Testing Key Level

    Bitcoin is currently trading near $110,936, struggling to gain momentum after several failed attempts to reclaim higher levels. The 4-hour chart shows a period of consolidation following the sharp recovery from the October 10 crash, with BTC moving in a tight range between $108,000 and $112,000. This structure reflects indecision in the market as buyers and sellers battle for short-term control.

    BTC consolidates around $110K level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
    BTC consolidates around $110K level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

    The 50 EMA (blue) is attempting to cross above the short-term range, signaling some recovery in short-term momentum. However, Bitcoin remains below both the 100 EMA (green) and the 200 EMA (red), indicating that the broader trend is still under bearish pressure. The $111,000–$112,000 zone is acting as immediate resistance, while $108,000 serves as critical short-term support.

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    If Bitcoin manages to break above the $112,000 resistance with volume confirmation, it could trigger a push toward the $117,500 level — the key horizontal resistance aligned with previous liquidity clusters. Conversely, rejection at this level may lead to another pullback toward $106,000 or lower, especially if volatility increases.

    Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

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    Sebastian Villafuerte

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  • New Wallets Move Over $160M In Bitcoin From Binance And FalconX – Details

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    Bitcoin is navigating a critical test as it trades slightly above the $110,000 mark, with bulls working to defend key support after last Friday’s sharp crash. The market remains tense, and sentiment is split between hopes of recovery and fears of another leg down.

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    After one of the most volatile weeks of the year, BTC is showing signs of consolidation, but uncertainty dominates as traders assess whether this is the start of a stabilization phase or a temporary pause before another sell-off. Analysts note that price structure remains fragile, and momentum indicators suggest the market needs stronger demand inflows to sustain current levels.

    Meanwhile, onchain data points to notable whale activity. Several newly created wallets have been observed withdrawing large amounts of Bitcoin from major exchanges, signaling that some large investors may be moving assets to cold storage — a move often interpreted as a sign of accumulation or strategic repositioning.

    These flows highlight the ongoing tug-of-war between market fear and institutional interest. As the market seeks direction, traders are closely watching whale behavior for clues about whether this consolidation will turn into a rebound — or another wave of volatility.

    Whale Activity Signals Strategic Accumulation

    Data from Lookonchain shows renewed whale activity as Bitcoin consolidates near the $110K mark. A newly created wallet, bc1q0q, withdrew 1,000 BTC ($110.65 million) from Binance, while another wallet, bc1qxm, pulled 465 BTC ($51.47 million) from FalconX over the past five hours. These two withdrawals — totaling more than $160 million in Bitcoin — have caught the attention of analysts tracking institutional and large-scale investor flows.

    New Wallet transfers 1,000 BTC from Binance | Source: Lookonchain
    New wallet transfers 465 BTC from FalconX | Source: Lookonchain
    New wallet transfers 465 BTC from FalconX | Source: Lookonchain

    Historically, such movements of newly created wallets withdrawing significant sums from exchanges tend to indicate accumulation behavior rather than short-term speculation. When large players move funds off exchanges, it typically signals reduced selling intent and a preference for holding BTC in self-custody — a bullish long-term sign, even amid short-term market weakness.

    However, this doesn’t mean volatility is over. The market remains fragile after last week’s sharp drop, and many traders expect a period of sideways consolidation before any clear directional move. Bitcoin may continue to hover within the $108K–$115K range as it absorbs recent liquidations and rebuilds structure.

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    Bitcoin Bulls Defend $110K Support Amid Consolidation

    Bitcoin continues to hover around $111,300, showing resilience after last week’s sharp crash that briefly sent prices near $103,000. The chart reveals that BTC is currently consolidating just above the $110K support zone, a key area that has repeatedly acted as a short-term floor during past corrections.

    BTC holds above $110K level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
    BTC holds above $110K level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

    Price action shows limited momentum, with the 50-day moving average (blue line) sloping downward and acting as resistance near $115K, while the 200-day moving average (red line) sits around $107K, providing a broader structural base. This setup suggests that Bitcoin remains in a neutral-to-bearish short-term phase, as buyers and sellers continue to battle for control within a tightening range.

    Related Reading

    For now, the $117,500 level remains the key resistance to reclaim if BTC wants to confirm a recovery trend. A decisive breakout above this zone could trigger renewed momentum toward $120K–$122K. Conversely, a drop below $109K would likely extend the correction toward $106K.

    Market sentiment remains cautious but stable. Consolidation at these levels could allow BTC to rebuild support and reset indicators before attempting another move, making the current phase critical for determining the next major direction in price action.

    Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

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    Sebastian Villafuerte

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  • Bitcoin Short-Term Holders At Cost Basis: SOPR At 1 Signals Mareket Equilibrium

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    Bitcoin is once again trading at a critical juncture after a sharp Monday rally pushed the price above the $114,000 level. The surge comes as bulls attempt to counteract days of persistent selling pressure, with momentum beginning to tilt back in their favor. This move marks a potential turning point in the market, signaling that investors are testing whether Bitcoin can hold above this key threshold and establish it as a new base for higher gains.

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    Supporting this view, fresh on-chain data from CryptoQuant highlights a notable development in short-term holder behavior. The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) has reset to 1, a crucial equilibrium level. At this point, the average sale by short-term holders is occurring at their cost basis, suggesting neither widespread profit-taking nor capitulation. Instead, the market is balanced, with buyers and sellers meeting in a zone of neutrality.

    This equilibrium often precedes decisive market moves. A sustained push higher could validate the bulls’ efforts to regain control, while failure to hold above $114,000 risks opening the door to renewed downward pressure. Traders and analysts alike are watching closely, as Bitcoin’s next move could define the tone for the weeks ahead.

    SOPR Signals Market Equilibrium

    Top analyst Axel Adler highlighted the importance of the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) in assessing Bitcoin’s current market state. According to Adler, when this metric hovers around 1, momentum tends to slow because of the delicate balance between buyers and sellers. Any push above the 1 threshold quickly shifts yesterday’s breakeven holders into profitable territory. As a result, many short-term investors seize the opportunity to sell, which injects additional selling pressure into the market and dampens the strength of upward moves.

    Bitcoin STH SOPR Dashboard | Source: Axel Adler

    Adler explained that this dynamic often creates a self-limiting environment for rallies. As Bitcoin rises, more short-term holders lock in gains, fueling waves of profit-taking that prevent the price from sustaining higher levels. This cyclical pattern highlights why the 1.0 mark on SOPR is often referred to as an “equilibrium” zone: it represents the point where the market resets, and short-term participants face little incentive to either capitulate or aggressively accumulate.

    For the broader trend to truly accelerate, Adler emphasized the need for a decisive breakout above this equilibrium. Specifically, he noted that a consistent rise in SOPR above 1.002 for several consecutive days would signal a shift in sentiment. Such a development would indicate that sellers are no longer overwhelming the market with profit-taking, allowing buying momentum to build and sustain higher price levels. Until then, Bitcoin remains at risk of choppy, range-bound action, with rallies vulnerable to short-term selling pressure.

    This perspective underscores the importance of closely tracking SOPR in the coming sessions. While the recent move above $114,000 has revived bullish hopes, the data suggests that without a clear breakout in this critical metric, Bitcoin may struggle to generate lasting momentum.

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    Bitcoin Tests Resistance as Bulls Eye $117,500

    Bitcoin is currently trading around $113,400 after briefly climbing above $114,800 earlier in the session. The chart shows that the $117,500 level, marked in yellow, remains a critical resistance zone that has capped multiple rallies since mid-August. Bulls will need a decisive close above this area to confirm renewed upside momentum.

    BTC facing resistance | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
    BTC facing resistance | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

    The 50-day moving average (blue) is now acting as near-term resistance, while the 100-day moving average (green) is serving as support. The price recently bounced from this zone, suggesting buyers are attempting to re-establish control. However, the wider structure still reflects consolidation, with BTC trapped between the $110,000 support region and the $117,500 ceiling.

    Related Reading

    The 200-day moving average (red), currently trending around $102,500, remains far below spot price and continues to provide a strong base for the longer-term trend. Until BTC clears the $117,500 barrier, rallies risk fading into selling pressure, keeping price action choppy.

    Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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    Sebastian Villafuerte

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  • Bitcoin Consolidates Above $115K As Market Eyes Fed’s Sept 17 Policy Move

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    Bitcoin has gained 7% since the start of September, showing renewed strength after weeks of uneven price action. Yet, the market is bracing for heightened volatility in the coming days as attention shifts to this Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. Investors widely expect a rate cut, but the size of the move remains the key question shaping sentiment.

    Related Reading

    If the Fed opts for a 25 basis point cut, many analysts see it as a measured and healthy pivot that could support risk assets, including Bitcoin, without sparking fears of deeper economic weakness. Such a move would likely reinforce confidence in a controlled transition toward easier monetary policy.

    On the other hand, a 50 basis point cut could send a very different signal. While it may initially provide liquidity relief, markets could interpret it as a sign of serious underlying fragility in the economy. That scenario risks triggering panic, especially if investors fear the Fed is reacting to problems worse than expected.

    Bitcoin Holds Key Levels Ahead Of Fed’s Decision

    According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin is showing signs of resilience as it trades at the upper boundary of its channel near $116,400, supported by a sustained bullish momentum score of 0.8. This score, which reflects the balance of market forces, suggests that despite recent volatility, Bitcoin’s structural strength remains intact.

    Bitcoin Structure Indicator | Source: Axel Adler

    Adler notes that the market is heavily driven by expectations of a rate cut, which has injected confidence into risk assets. The timing of this setup could not be more critical, with the Federal Reserve set to announce its interest rate decision on September 17, 2025, at 2:00 PM Eastern Time.

    Interestingly, while Bitcoin has held its ground at key resistance levels, altcoins have started to show strength independently for the first time in months. This decoupling suggests that capital rotation is taking place, with investors diversifying beyond Bitcoin. As liquidity expands, this dynamic could mark the start of a new market phase, where both Bitcoin and altcoins drive momentum instead of BTC alone.

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    Testing Key Resistance Levels

    Bitcoin is currently trading around $114,938, showing consolidation just below the $116,000 resistance zone. The chart highlights a notable rebound from early September lows near $110,000, with BTC climbing steadily back into its mid-range. Price is now attempting to hold gains above the 50-day moving average (blue line) and is hovering around the 100-day (green line) and 200-day (red line) moving averages, which are converging and creating a dense resistance cluster.

    BTC consolidates around key level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
    BTC consolidates around key level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

    This setup reflects a tense balance between bulls and bears. Bulls have managed to protect $110,000 and push BTC higher, signaling renewed strength. On the other hand, BTC has repeatedly failed to establish momentum above $116,000, a level that must be cleared decisively to target the major resistance near $123,217, marked on the chart as the next critical upside barrier.

    Related Reading

    The current sideways structure suggests a drift phase, with traders waiting for catalysts such as the upcoming Fed rate decision. A successful breakout above $116,000 could reignite momentum toward $120,000 and beyond. However, failure to hold above the 50-day SMA risks a retest of $112,000 or even $110,000 support. For now, Bitcoin remains range-bound, but pressure is building for a directional move.

    Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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    Sebastian Villafuerte

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  • Bitcoin Futures Pressure Score Hits 18%: Shorts Are Losing Momentum

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    Bitcoin is once again at a decisive moment after several days of tight consolidation around the $110K level. Bulls are making an effort to defend this critical support, while also eyeing the $113K resistance as the next key barrier. A breakout above it could provide the momentum needed for BTC to retest higher supply zones and reignite bullish sentiment. However, the market remains fragile, with volatility and fear weighing heavily on investor confidence.

    Related Reading

    Top analyst Axel Adler provided important context from the derivatives market. According to Adler, the Bitcoin Futures Pressure Score currently stands at 18%, which is considered low to moderate and closer to the neutral zone. This suggests that there is no overwhelming short pressure from leverage at this time. In practical terms, futures traders are not aggressively building short positions, nor are they significantly adding to long exposure.

    This balance reflects a cautious market environment where participants are waiting for a catalyst to determine direction. Until then, Bitcoin’s battle between $110K support and $113K resistance will remain the focal point, setting the stage for the next major move in either direction.

    Bitcoin Futures In Neutral Mode

    According to Adler, the current state of the futures market paints a picture of caution rather than conviction. With the Pressure Score at 18%, the indicator suggests a neutral environment where traders are neither aggressively building long positions nor stacking shorts. Adler explains that this lack of strong directional signals reflects an indecisive market, where participants are waiting for external catalysts before committing capital.

    Bitcoin Open Interest Pressure Score | Source: Axel Adler

    The Pressure Score becomes particularly important in identifying potential downside risks. Adler notes that when the metric rises toward the 30–40% range, it indicates that shorts are being built up at an accelerated pace. In such cases, open interest increases faster than usual, creating conditions that often lead to sudden price dumps. For now, Bitcoin is not in that danger zone, but the market remains highly sensitive to shifts in sentiment.

    What adds to the current uncertainty is the weakening US labor market, which has fueled speculation about the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. Any surprise in economic data or Fed guidance could easily tip the balance, triggering volatility across crypto markets. As investors digest these signals, Bitcoin is expected to trade with increased choppiness in the coming days, with bulls and bears closely monitoring the $110K–$113K range as the decisive battleground.

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    Technical Insights: Trading Between Key Levels

    Bitcoin is currently trading around $112,196, showing a modest recovery after testing lows near $110,000. The chart highlights a consolidation phase, with BTC holding above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at $112,102, while the 50-day SMA sits higher at $114,650, acting as immediate resistance. A decisive close above this level could open the path for Bitcoin to retest $116,000 and potentially challenge the major resistance at $123,217, marked by the summer peak.

    BTC consolidates below $113K | Source: BTCUSDT Chart on TradingView
    BTC consolidates below $113K | Source: BTCUSDT Chart on TradingView

    On the downside, the 200-day SMA at $101,980 provides a strong layer of support. As long as BTC remains above this level, the broader bullish structure remains intact despite recent volatility. However, repeated failures to break above the 50-day SMA may invite further consolidation, with risks of a retest of the $108,000–$110,000 zone if selling pressure re-emerges.

    Related Reading

    Bulls need to reclaim $114,650 to shift momentum toward the $120K region, while bears aim to defend resistance and push the price lower. The coming days are likely to determine whether Bitcoin resumes its broader uptrend or extends its correction.

    Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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    Sebastian Villafuerte

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  • Bitcoin Market Base Turns Neutral-Bearish As Flows Stay Weak

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    Bitcoin is entering a fragile stage after days of selling pressure and uncertainty pushed the price into consolidation around the $110,000 level. Bulls are working to defend this key area, but momentum has clearly faded. The market now finds itself in a holding pattern, with investors cautious about whether Bitcoin will stabilize or break lower in the sessions ahead.

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    Despite the weakness, there are no clear signals yet of a deeper correction. Historically, retracements within ongoing bull markets often serve as resets rather than trend reversals, but the pressure on Bitcoin has nonetheless sparked debate about its short-term direction. Holding above current levels is becoming increasingly important, as failure to do so could shift sentiment further in favor of the bears.

    Top analyst Axel Adler described the current environment as a neutral-bearish base, meaning flows and price action lack the conviction needed for a decisive bullish push. Until stronger demand emerges, Bitcoin’s recovery is likely to be limited to technical bounces rather than sustained rallies.

    Bitcoin Stuck In Neutral-Bearish Base

    According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s current structure remains fragile as both price and derivative flows sit below 50, signaling weakness across critical indicators. Adler emphasizes that while short-term rebounds are possible, the market lacks the conviction required for a sustained uptrend. With taker flows still negative and weak, any recovery from present levels is likely to be a mean-reversion bounce toward $113K, aligning with the Fair Value and mid-30-day range, rather than the beginning of a new bullish phase.

    Bitcoin Integrated Market Index | Source: Axel Adler

    This environment suggests that risk appetite remains absent, leaving the market vulnerable to further tests of lower boundaries. Adler notes that unless flows shift meaningfully, price rallies will likely remain capped and quickly fade as selling pressure reemerges. The nearest bullish setup would require stabilization of flows that could push BTC toward the $113K–$115K region, a technical recovery zone that would ease immediate bearish sentiment but still fall short of confirming a regime shift.

    For a true change in market structure, Adler points to two key thresholds: Flow >55 and Price Index >50. Only when both conditions are met will Bitcoin have the foundation for a stronger, trend-confirming rally. Until then, the market faces an elevated risk of repeated retests of support zones, with traders closely monitoring whether BTC can hold above $110K or slip further into correction territory.

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    BTC Holding the Line Above $110K

    Bitcoin continues to consolidate around the $110K–$111K zone, showing resilience after weeks of sharp selling pressure. The chart highlights how BTC has bounced from recent lows near $108K but still struggles to reclaim higher momentum. The 50-day moving average now acts as resistance, capping the upside attempts and reflecting waning bullish strength.

    BTC consolidates around key levels | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
    BTC consolidates around key levels | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

    Despite the pullback from the $123K all-time high, the structure remains intact above the 200-day moving average near $101K, which has consistently served as a long-term support. The current price action shows a market caught in balance: bulls are defending demand, but bears maintain pressure as rallies face rejection around the $112K level.

    Related Reading

    The flat trajectory of the 100-day moving average reinforces the consolidation phase, suggesting that a decisive breakout is needed to confirm direction. If Bitcoin closes above $113K in the short term, it could set up a retest of $118K, the mid-range level that has acted as both support and resistance.

    Failure to hold the $110K level could expose BTC to repeated tests of $108K and, ultimately, the psychological $105K zone. For now, Bitcoin’s fate hinges on whether buyers can stabilize flows and absorb ongoing selling pressure.

    Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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    Sebastian Villafuerte

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  • Bitcoin Mirrors Historical Pullback Ranges – Healthy Correction Or Trouble Ahead?

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    Bitcoin is facing renewed volatility after losing the $110,000 level just a few days ago, a breakdown that has fueled uncertainty across the market. Bulls are attempting to reclaim this crucial support, but fear of a deeper correction continues to weigh heavily on sentiment. With every failed rebound, traders are left questioning whether this pullback is simply a pause within the broader uptrend or the beginning of a larger downtrend.

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    Crypto analyst Darkfost has shared new data providing context for the current environment. Since Bitcoin’s most recent all-time high near $123,000, the asset has retraced by roughly -12%. According to Darkfost, this move remains well within the boundaries of a normal correction, especially when compared to historical pullbacks in previous bull cycles.

    Such corrections are often healthy, serving to reset leverage, cool overheated sentiment, and create fresh entry points for long-term investors. While uncertainty remains in the short term, history suggests that Bitcoin’s current retracement does not necessarily signal the end of the cycle. Instead, it may represent a period of stabilization before the next major move.

    Bitcoin Correction Aligns With Historical Patterns

    According to Darkfost, Bitcoin’s current retracement should be viewed within the broader context of this cycle rather than as a sign of structural weakness. Looking more closely, since the first all-time high in March 2024, the largest drawdown recorded so far reached 28%. Importantly, Bitcoin has not corrected more deeply than that throughout the ongoing bull market.

    Bitcoin Price Drawdown from ATH | Source: Darkfost

    Historically, the most severe pullbacks in bullish phases have averaged between -20% and -25%, placing the present move well within the expected range. With Bitcoin now down roughly 12% from its latest all-time high of $123,000, the retracement is still modest compared to prior cycle corrections. Darkfost emphasizes that this behavior is not unusual and could even extend further without breaking the underlying bull trend.

    In fact, such drawdowns are often healthy and necessary in long-term uptrends. They serve several functions: flushing out excessive leverage in the derivatives market, cooling down overheated sentiment, and shaking out short-term speculators. At the same time, they create new entry opportunities for investors who may have missed earlier stages of the rally.

    For long-term holders and institutions, these phases are less about panic and more about preparation. Historically, similar corrections have preceded renewed strength, as Bitcoin stabilizes before resuming its upward trajectory. If the current pattern holds, this retracement may ultimately strengthen the market foundation, setting the stage for the next leg of growth.

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    Testing Recovery Level After Deep Pullback

    Bitcoin is attempting to recover after a sharp correction that took the price down to the $108K region. As shown in the chart, BTC recently bounced back above $110K but continues to struggle to sustain momentum. The rejection from the $123K zone marked the cycle’s most recent all-time high, and the market has since been in a retracement phase.

    BTC showing bearish structure | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
    BTC showing bearish structure | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

    The 12-hour chart highlights how BTC dipped below its 200-day moving average (red line) but quickly rebounded, signaling that bulls are still defending this crucial support. The 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) moving averages, however, are trending downward, suggesting that pressure remains in the short term. BTC will need to reclaim the $112K–$115K zone to shift sentiment back toward bullish momentum.

    Related Reading

    On the downside, losing the $108K level could open the door to a deeper correction toward $105K or even the $101K region, where the 200-day MA sits as the last line of defense.

    Bitcoin is consolidating in a fragile position. A decisive move above $115K could reignite bullish momentum, but failure to hold current support may confirm a prolonged correction phase before any attempt at a new all-time high.

    Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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    Sebastian Villafuerte

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  • Is Bitcoin Heading For A Bear Market? Analysts Weigh In On The Price Struggles

    Is Bitcoin Heading For A Bear Market? Analysts Weigh In On The Price Struggles

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    Este artículo también está disponible en español.

    Bitcoin market performance has been underwhelming since its peak above $73,000 in March 2024. Instead of building on this rally, the top crypto has faced continued consolidation coupled with a series of declines, frustrating many investors.

    Currently, Bitcoin is down 22.7% from its March high, raising concerns over whether this signals the start of a deeper bear market. The decline has shaken confidence, with market analysts now questioning the near-term outlook for the digital asset.

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    Bitcoin Price Continous To Struggle, Why?

    Analysts from IntoTheBlock, a market intelligence platform, have recently shared insights on X, reflecting the changing sentiment. In a post uploaded earlier today, the analyst noted:

    Bitcoin’s price remains under pressure, with no significant upward momentum. The market, once hopeful for a rally, now faces growing uncertainty as both retail and institutional interest appear to be dwindling.

    The analysts asked, “is this just a quiet phase or the start of a prolonged bear market?”

    To answer this question, IntoTheBlock first assessed Bitcoin price struggles and the factors contributing to the lackluster price movement.

    Mentioning “macro landscape,” the market intelligence platform disclosed that the possibility of a global recession looms large, creating a cautious outlook for risk assets like Bitcoin.

    They noted that although many expect rate cuts soon, these measures may take time to affect Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies positively. Meanwhile, until that happens, the broader macro environment will likely continue to pressure market sentiment and investor confidence.

    Furthermore, IntoTheBlock touched on the interest in cryptocurrencies, which has also been declining sharply in recent months.

    According to the market intelligence platform, search trends related to Bitcoin and other digital assets have significantly decreased, reflecting a drop in public interest.

    Search trend for cryptocurrency plummets on Google. | Source: 0xLoris on X

    Even app rankings for major crypto exchanges like Coinbase have fallen, suggesting fewer users engage with the market. This trend has extended to on-chain metrics, where the number of new Bitcoin addresses remains low, indicating a slowdown in market participation.

    Should You Panic?

    While the current downturn has raised concerns, analysts from IntoTheBlock see potential parallels to Bitcoin’s price action in 2019. They noted:

    Historical Bitcoin halving cycles suggest it could be a post-halving dip, something we’ve seen before. Parallels to 2019: Interestingly, many analysts point out the current phase mirrors 2019, where the market also slowed down after a (local) high. Back then, the market experienced a prolonged consolidation before turning bullish again. Could we be on the same path?

    IntoTheBlock further highlighted that “other cycle data tells a different story.” The market intelligence platform noted that in recent weeks, the balances of long-term Bitcoin holders have hit new lows, echoing post-peak trends from previous market cycles.

    Bitcoin long-term holders.
    Bitcoin long-term holders. | Source: IntoTheBock

    According to IntoTheBlock, this could signal a “prolonged cooldown” phase for Bitcoin, potentially delaying any significant price recovery.

    Related Reading

    The analysts noted that while the market faces uncertainties, there are no definitive answers. They concluded:

    There are no clear-cut answers, but by considering past cycles and current data, we can stay open to possibilities Keep track of both on-chain data and macro factors—they will be critical in determining what comes next

    Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView
    BTC price is moving sideways on the 2-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

    Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

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    Samuel Edyme

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  • Data Shows Sellers Have Returned To Bitcoin: Is A Major Price Drop On The Horizon?

    Data Shows Sellers Have Returned To Bitcoin: Is A Major Price Drop On The Horizon?

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    Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname – HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

    Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

    Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

    When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

    Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

    In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

    Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think’s probably unfeasible, I’ve done already a hundredfold.”

    PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.

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    Samuel Edyme

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  • Is Bitcoin Poised for a September Price Surge? What Traders Need to Know

    Is Bitcoin Poised for a September Price Surge? What Traders Need to Know

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    Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname – HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

    Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

    Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

    When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

    Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

    In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

    Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think’s probably unfeasible, I’ve done already a hundredfold.”

    PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.

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    Samuel Edyme

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  • Bitcoin Quiet Buildup: Analyst Predicts Major Inflows Yet to Come—Here’s Why

    Bitcoin Quiet Buildup: Analyst Predicts Major Inflows Yet to Come—Here’s Why

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    Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname – HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

    Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

    Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

    When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

    Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

    In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

    Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think’s probably unfeasible, I’ve done already a hundredfold.”

    PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.

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    Samuel Edyme

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  • Bitcoin Traders Brace for Impact: QCP Capital Signals Incoming Price Drop—Here’s Why

    Bitcoin Traders Brace for Impact: QCP Capital Signals Incoming Price Drop—Here’s Why

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    Recent analysis from QCP Capital indicates a marked shift in derivatives market sentiment, signaling that options traders are bracing for further declines in Bitcoin value.

    Dissecting the Bearish Sentiment

    The derivatives market has experienced a notable shift over the past day, with the implied volatility in Bitcoin options decreasing.

    This indicates that traders are worrying more about the possible downside risks. According to a note from analysts at QCP Capital, the spread between call and put options has tightened by three volatility points. QCP Capital noted:

    While spot prices remain muted, the options market is painting a different picture. 26 Jul vols made an impressive 8-vol rally with RR dipping by 3 vols signalling caution to the downside.

    This contraction reflects growing market caution as traders prepare for possible Bitcoin price declines amid increasing sell-pressure. Notably, the US government moving Bitcoin to exchanges like Coinbase and MtGox creditors beginning to receive their redistributed assets via Kraken, are contributing factors.

    These movements have injected substantial Bitcoin into the market, potentially suppressing prices further. QCP Capital’s analysts added:

    With the ETH Spot ETF potentially not impacting prices on the outset, coupled with potential selling pressure from the US Government and Mt Gox, prices may remain subdued until momentum builds up leading to the elections.

    The Positive Bitcoin Signal

    Amid the bearish sentiment from the derivative market shared by QCP Capital, some other Bitcoin metric suggest quite an opposite sentiment—Bullish.

    According to a CryptoQuant author on the QuickTake platform, there has been a significant increase in Bitcoin withdrawals from Kraken.

    This is particularly noteworthy as it comes at a time when Mt.Gox creditors are receiving their funds from the Kraken exchange. The analyst noted:

    This could be a positive signal, indicating that they are not selling and are preparing to hold their coins, moving them from the exchange to cold wallets. Although the volume is not high, over 5K $BTC (USD 329.192.018$) have been withdrawn in the last 24 hours.

    Meanwhile, regardless of the mixed signals from both QCP Capital and the CryptoQuant analyst, BTC itself is still maintaining a crucial mark price above $66,000.

    Although the asset briefly traded at $67,073 earlier today, Bitcoin has now retraced slightly, trading for $66,705 at the time of writing.

    According to prominent crypto analyst RektCapital, so far, not only has BTC successfully retested the old all-time high (ATH) major resistance area, but the asset now has a chance to “form a new Higher High for the first time in months.”

    Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

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    Samuel Edyme

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  • Market Tremors: $10 Billion in Bitcoin Dumped in May Alone, What Does This Signal?

    Market Tremors: $10 Billion in Bitcoin Dumped in May Alone, What Does This Signal?

    [ad_1]

    Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname – HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

    Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

    Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

    When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

    Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

    In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

    Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think’s probably unfeasible, I’ve done already a hundredfold.”

    PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.

    [ad_2]

    Samuel Edyme

    Source link