ReportWire

Tag: Bitcoin

  • Engine Stalled: How The $8 Billion ‘October Shock’ Left Bitcoin’s Spot Market In A Liquidity Trap

    [ad_1]

    Bitcoin is finding near-term relief after a sharp rebound toward the $70,000 level, offering temporary optimism following weeks of sustained pressure. The move has improved short-term momentum and eased immediate downside risk. However, the broader market remains characterized by indecision, as many analysts argue that this advance may represent a relief rally within a larger corrective structure rather than the start of a renewed bull phase.

    Related Reading

    According to analysis from XWIN Research Japan, while price has recovered meaningfully from recent lows, underlying derivatives data suggest caution. Open Interest has fallen significantly from prior cycle highs, reflecting an extensive deleveraging process across futures markets. Importantly, the recent price decline occurred alongside contracting Open Interest, indicating that forced liquidations and derivatives-driven position unwinds were primary drivers of the selloff rather than sustained spot distribution.

    Bitcoin Open Interest All Exchanges | Source: CryptoQuant

    Such resets can be constructive, as they reduce excessive leverage and stabilize funding conditions. Nonetheless, a cleaner derivatives landscape does not automatically translate into fresh structural demand. Without clear evidence of renewed capital inflows or expanding spot participation, the current rebound may remain vulnerable to renewed volatility.

    Muted Exchange Flows Suggest Stabilization, Not Yet Structural Strength

    Recent exchange flow data adds nuance to Bitcoin’s current recovery phase. Binance’s Fund Flow Ratio remains subdued near 0.012, indicating that inflows relative to total BTC reserves on the platform are limited. In practical terms, this suggests that immediate sell-side pressure has not intensified, even during the recent move toward the mid-$60K region. The absence of a spike in this metric implies that investors are not rushing to transfer coins to exchanges in panic, which typically accompanies more aggressive distribution phases.

    Bitcoin Binance Fund Flow Ratio | Source: CryptoQuant
    Bitcoin Binance Fund Flow Ratio | Source: CryptoQuant

    However, low inflows should not automatically be interpreted as accumulation. The medium-term trend in the ratio’s moving averages continues to drift downward, indicating that sustained structural demand has yet to reassert itself. Markets can stabilize without transitioning directly into expansion, particularly when liquidity conditions remain cautious.

    Additional context from derivatives positioning reinforces this ambiguity. With leverage still relatively compressed, upward price movements can disproportionately trigger short liquidations, generating rallies driven more by position unwinds than fresh capital deployment. This type of rebound often improves sentiment temporarily but may lack durability without stronger spot participation.

    Overall, Bitcoin appears to be transitioning from active selling toward stabilization. Confirmation of a genuine bullish reversal will likely require consistent inflows, improving liquidity, and clearer evidence of renewed investor demand.

    Related Reading

    Bitcoin Tests Support After Sharp Correction

    Bitcoin remains under pressure following a pronounced correction from its recent highs, with price currently stabilizing near the $68,000 region. The weekly structure shows a clear loss of upward momentum after rejection around the $110K–$120K zone, followed by a decisive breakdown below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. This shift typically signals weakening intermediate trend strength rather than simple short-term volatility.

    BTC holding key demand level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
    BTC holding key demand level | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

    Price is now hovering close to the 200-week moving average, historically a critical structural support during transitional market phases. Holding this level could help stabilize sentiment and potentially define a medium-term floor. However, a sustained breakdown below it would likely increase downside risk, as it would confirm deterioration in long-term trend structure.

    Related Reading

    Volume dynamics also warrant attention. The recent selloff occurred with elevated activity compared with preceding consolidation phases, suggesting that distribution — not merely thin liquidity — contributed to the decline. That said, volume has started to moderate as price consolidates, indicating reduced urgency among sellers.

    Bitcoin appears to be transitioning into a defensive consolidation phase. Recovery above the shorter moving averages would be required to restore bullish momentum, while failure to hold current support could extend the corrective cycle further.

    Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

    [ad_2]

    Sebastian Villafuerte

    Source link

  • Is Jane Street Why Bitcoin Isn’t At $150K? Expert Debunks The Myth

    [ad_1]

    The idea that Jane Street is single-handedly the reason why Bitcoin is not trading at $150,000 is the wrong frame, according to ProCap CIO and Bitwise advisor Jeff Park. In a X thread February 25, Park argued that the real issue is not one firm, but a structural feature of the US spot Bitcoin ETF system that gives all authorized participants unusual flexibility in how they hedge and settle trades.

    Is Jane Street Suppressing Bitcoin?

    Park’s core point is that the market has turned a question about Jane Street into a question about the ETF plumbing itself. On IBIT alone, he noted, the authorized participant roster includes Jane Street Capital, JPMorgan, Macquarie, Virtu Americas, Goldman Sachs, Citadel Securities, Citigroup, UBS and ABN AMRO. In his telling, that matters because APs are not ordinary short sellers.

    “The question deserves a precise answer—and the most important thing to understand upfront is that it is not really a question about Jane Street,” Park wrote. “It is a question about a structural feature of the Bitcoin ETF architecture that applies equally to every Authorized Participant in the ecosystem.” He added that the role of those institutions is “genuinely misunderstood, even amongst seasoned industry veterans.”

    The mechanism Park focused on is the AP exemption under Regulation SHO. In standard short selling, traders generally need to locate shares before shorting and face borrowing costs that create pressure to close the trade. APs, Park argued, sit in a different category because their creation and redemption rights effectively let them manufacture ETF shares without those same frictions.

    Related Reading

    “The practical consequence is significant: any AP can manufacture shares at will—no borrow cost, no capital conventionally tied up against the short, and no hard deadline to close the position beyond what is commercially reasonable,” he wrote. “This is the grey window: a regulatory carve-out designed for orderly ETF market-making that is, structurally speaking, indistinguishable from a regulatory arbitrage with unmatched duration.”

    That framing is important because Park is not claiming APs can simply press Bitcoin lower forever. His argument is narrower and more structural. If an AP is short IBIT and chooses to hedge with CME Bitcoin futures rather than buying spot BTC, then the normal arbitrage pathway that would force spot purchases becomes weaker. In that setup, the hedge can remain economically tight enough for market-making purposes while bypassing immediate spot demand.

    “The critical implication: if the hedge is futures rather than spot, the spot was never bought,” Park wrote. “The gap cannot close via the natural arb mechanism because the natural arb buyer chose not to buy spot.” He also cautioned that the separation is not frictionless, since basis traders work to keep futures and spot aligned, but said the basis risk becomes more meaningful in periods of stress.

    The recent shift to in-kind creations and redemptions, in Park’s view, removes another constraint that previously pushed activity into the spot market. Under the earlier cash-only model, APs had to deliver cash, which the fund’s custodian then used to buy Bitcoin. That created what Park called a “structural governor” because spot buying was a mechanical byproduct of creations. In-kind transfers change that. APs can now source Bitcoin directly, at times and from counterparties of their choosing, including OTC desks and negotiated transactions that may minimize visible market impact.

    Related Reading

    Even so, Park stopped short of endorsing outright market suppression claims. “The short answer is that no AP explicitly suppresses Bitcoin price,” he wrote. “What the AP structure can suppress is the integrity of the price discovery mechanism itself. Those are not the same thing—but the second is arguably more consequential than the first.”

    Other Experts Agree

    Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence Eric Balchunas commented: “The bogeyman is gone.. That’s the vibe rn on CT and in the price action today. I get it too, that big daily dump [at 10am] seemed to kill every rally and everyone’s spirit. Is eliminating it enough for a sustained rebound? I guess we’ll find out.”

    That distinction drew pushback. Monad founder Keone Hon said the theory does not hold up because a short futures hedge implies someone else is short futures and, on average, must hedge elsewhere, preserving the market-wide delta balance. Dave Weisberger also argued the claim does not hold “over any substantial time frame,” noting that futures converge to spot at expiry.

    Park did not dispute the accounting identity. What he disputed was whether that identity settles the practical question of how long trades can persist inside the system’s regulatory carve-outs. “To be clear, I don’t subscribe to the conspiracy theory that APs suppress price,” he wrote. “The conspiracy theory that I subscribe to, if there is one to be had, is that with infinite duration at zero cost of carry, funny things can happen.”

    Leading on-chain analyst James “Checkmate” Check agreed: “Jane Street didn’t suppress the Bitcoin price folks. HODLers all did. It’s just not that hard, stop summoning your inner salty goldbug but blaming manipulators. People. Sold. A. Fucktonne. Of. Spot. Bitcoin.”

    At press time, Bitcoin traded at $67,883.

    Bitcoin must close above the 200-week EMA, 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

    [ad_2]

    Jake Simmons

    Source link

  • Bitcoin COT Data: Smart Money Goes Net Long With ‘Urgency’

    [ad_1]

    Bitcoin futures positioning among non-commercial traders is swinging sharply toward net long exposure, a move technical analyst Tom McClellan (editor of The McClellan Market Report) says has arrived “with some urgency” in the latest weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report and one that has coincided with notable market outcomes in prior, similarly extreme episodes.

    Sharing a chart of Bitcoin futures (price on a log scale) alongside non-commercial net positioning, McClellan argued that in Bitcoin’s case, large speculators effectively function as the “smart money” cohort, because the market lacks the typical commercial hedger presence seen in traditional commodity futures.

    “The non-commercial traders of Bitcoin futures are usually the smart money,” McClellan wrote. “This week’s COT Report shows that they are moving net long with some urgency. Look back at what the last two similar excursions led to. But remember, this is ‘a condition, not a signal’.”

    Bitcoin COT data | Source: X @McClellanOsc

    Why Non-Commercials Matter In Bitcoin Futures

    McClellan later expanded on how he frames the CFTC’s weekly report, which breaks futures positioning into commercials, non-commercials, and non-reportables. In corn, for example, commercials might be producers or end users; in Bitcoin, he says that category is thin. “In Bitcoin, there are hardly any traders who qualify as Commercial traders,” McClellan wrote. “So in an unusual circumstance, the Non-commercial traders fill the role of being the smart money.”

    Related Reading

    That distinction matters because COT is not about absolute long or short interest, every futures contract has a long and a short by definition, but about who is on each side. “Every futures contract is simultaneously one long and one short position, held by different parties. So the number of longs will always equal the number of shorts,” he wrote. “What matters is who holds the positions.”

    McClellan also cautioned against importing equity-market intuition about short interest into futures positioning. “So a large short position in a stock represents potential energy which could get converted into price movements via short covering,” he wrote. “COT data don’t do that. They just represent expert opinion.”

    The core dispute in the X thread wasn’t whether COT can be useful, but how to interpret timing. Trader toni (@tonitrades_) agreed the dataset has value but questioned whether futures positioning simply follows spot momentum. “COT data has historically been a solid indicator, no argument there,” toni wrote. “But non-commercial positioning often lags spot market moves by weeks. By the time futures traders pile in, the initial momentum is usually priced in already.”

    Related Reading

    McClellan pushed back on that sequencing. “I think you meant that their positioning PRECEDES price moves sometimes by weeks,” he replied, underscoring his view that positioning extremes can show up ahead of meaningful market moves, though not on a predictable schedule.

    That’s where the thread landed: with an emphasis on uncertainty. Jim Osman (@EdgeCGroup) summed it up succinctly: “Timing still uncertain.” McClellan agreed. “Exactly, hence my admonition.”

    In his longer explanation, McClellan reiterated that most weeks the COT report has no actionable message, but that extremes can be informative with a crucial caveat. “A lot of the time there is no useful message in the COT data for each futures contract,” he wrote.

    “But when an extreme develops like now in Bitcoin, then we can get useful information. But as with any overbought or oversold reading on any indicator, COT data only reflect a ‘condition’ not a signal. The data will not tell you when that condition is going to matter, only that it should matter, sometime.”

    At press time, BTC traded at $65,663.

    Bitcoin price chart
    Bitcoin must reclaim the 200-week EMA, 1-week chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

    Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

    [ad_2]

    Jake Simmons

    Source link

  • XRP Flashes Rare On-Chain Signal That Once Preceded 114% Gains

    [ad_1]

    XRP on-chain pain has drawn fresh attention this week. Realized losses surged to nearly $2 billion over a one-week span. That kind of move grabs traders’ eyes because it often marks a clearing out of weaker holders.

    Related Reading

    Santiment Shows Heavy Realized Losses

    According to Santiment, the spike is the biggest since 2022. Realized losses happen when people sell for less than what they paid. It is a measure of capitulation. In past cycles, similar spikes happened near major lows and were followed by strong rallies.

    One historical episode that traders point to saw a big loss week before a 114% climb over roughly eight months. Still, that outcome came from a specific set of market conditions that are not guaranteed to reappear.

    When Many Small Holders Leave

    The recent spike in realized losses has drawn attention from market participants. When investors sell at a loss, the metric rises, reflecting the scale of coins changing hands below their purchase price. Analysts often monitor this data to assess shifts in supply and demand.

    XRPUSD currently trading at $1.39. Chart: TradingView

    Realized profit and loss figures are commonly used to track market behavior during periods of sharp price movement. While the data highlights the level of losses being locked in, price direction typically depends on broader trading activity, liquidity conditions, and overall market trends.

    Price Moves And Market Tone

    XRP traded near $1.45 at the time of these reports, up about 1.50% over 24 hours but down roughly 24% for the month. The token moved mostly in step with Bitcoin during a broader market bounce.

    Short-term strength like that can be a start. It can also be a brief reprieve inside a longer correction. Traders watching the charts want to see more volume and clear levels taken before calling a trend change.

    Why Some Forecasts Stretch Reality

    Analyst targets running into double and triple digits have circulated online. CryptoBull’s calls for $13, $27, and $70 in a matter of months are extreme and would require dramatic new capital flows.

    Market cap math shows those moves need far larger demand than casual optimism provides. Other analysts used prior cycle lows to estimate a possible macro floor between $0.75 and $0.85 by applying a roughly 2.8x multiple.

    Related Reading

    A Good Signal

    Taken together, the data has revived discussion around a rare on-chain signal that in the past came before a 114% advance.

    Santiment’s latest figures show realized losses reaching levels not seen since 2022, placing the metric back in focus for traders tracking cycle behavior.

    Whether history repeats will depend on incoming demand, broader crypto sentiment, and sustained buying pressure in the weeks ahead. For now, the signal has flashed again, and the market is watching to see what follows.

    Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

    [ad_2]

    Christian Encila

    Source link

  • Bitcoin Market Resets With 28% Deleveraging — What Next?

    [ad_1]

    Opeyemi is a proficient writer and enthusiast in the exciting and unique cryptocurrency realm. While the digital asset industry was not his first choice, he has remained absolutely drawn since making a foray into the space over two years. Now, Opeyemi takes pride in creating unique pieces unraveling the complexities of blockchain technology and sharing insights on the latest trends in the world of cryptocurrencies.

    Opeyemi savors his attraction to the crypto market, which explains why he spends the better parts of his day looking through different price charts. “Looking” is a rather simple way to describe analyzing and interpreting various price patterns and chart formations. However, it appears that is not Opeyemi’s favorite part – in fact, far from it.

    Being able to connect what happens on a price chart to on-chain movements and blockchain activities is what keeps Opeyemi ticking. “This emphasizes the intricacies of blockchain technology and the cryptocurrency market,” he would say. Most importantly, Opeyemi thinks of any market insights as the gospel, while recognizing that he is only a messenger.

    When he is not clicking away at his keyboard, Opeyemi is most definitely listening to music, playing games, reading a book, or scrolling through X. He likes to think he is not loyal to a particular genre of music, which can be true on many days. However, the fast-rising Afrobeats genre is a staple in Opeyemi’s Spotify Daily Mix.

    Meanwhile, Opeyemi is a voracious reader who enjoys a wide category of books – ranging from science fiction, fantasy, and historical, to even romance. He believes that authors like George R. R. Martin and J. K.
    Rowling are the greatest of all time when it comes to putting pen to paper. Opeyemi believes his reading of the Harry Potter series twice is proof of that.

    Indeed, Opeyemi enjoys spending most of his time within the four walls of his home. However, he also sometimes finds solace in the company of his friends at a bar, a restaurant, or even on a stroll. In essence, Opeyemi’s ambivert (haha! been searching for an opportunity to use the word to describe myself) nature makes him a social chameleon who is able to quickly adapt to different settings.

    Opeyemi recognizes the need to constantly develop oneself in order to stay afloat in a competitive and ever-evolving market like crypto. For this reason, he is always in learning mode, ready to pick up the slightest lesson from every situation. Opeyemi is efficient and likes to deliver all that is required of him in time – he believes that “whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well.” Hence, you will always find him striving to be better.

    Ultimately, Opeyemi is a good writer and an even better person who is trying to shed light on an exciting world phenomenon – cryptocurrency. He goes to bed every day with a smile of satisfaction on his face, knowing that he has done his bit of the holy assignment – spreading the crypto gospel to the rest of the world.

    [ad_2]

    Opeyemi Sule

    Source link

  • Bitcoin Liquidity Battles Heat Up As Demand Shows First Positive Print

    [ad_1]

    Bitcoin remains range-bound as liquidity clears on both sides, keeping price action indecisive. After months of weakness, demand has finally turned positive, hinting that selling is easing and structural accumulation may be returning.

    BTC Stays Range-Bound Amid Active Liquidity Clearing

    Bitcoin remains locked in a range-bound state, characterized by a lack of directional commitment. Currently, the price is actively engaged in clearing liquidity on both sides of the spread. This creates a market environment where expansion is met with selling pressure, while price dips are swiftly absorbed by buyers, trapping the asset in a tug-of-war.

    Related Reading

    According to Columbus, market liquidity remains exceptionally well-defined both above and below the current price levels. This structure reinforces the ongoing choppy environment, as the market seems content to bounce between established pockets of orders. In such a scenario, the data suggests that patience is the most valuable asset for traders.

    Source: Chart from Columbus on X

    From this juncture, the market’s trajectory depends on how it reacts after the nearby liquidity is purged. If Bitcoin begins to find acceptance above the current range following a liquidity sweep, the probability shifts toward a bullish expansion, triggering a move into higher upside pockets.

    Conversely, if the attempt to gain acceptance fails after a sweep, the market remains vulnerable to further downside. This could result in additional sweeping of lower liquidity levels before any sustained recovery can materialize. Until then, the prevailing goal remains a technical clean-up of liquidity before the next major trend is established.

    Bitcoin Demand Turns Positive After Months Of Weakness

    CryptosRus recently highlighted that after nearly three months of persistent weakness, Bitcoin’s apparent demand has finally turned back above zero, currently sitting around +1,200 BTC. This marks a notable shift in investors’ sentiment and action in a market struggling with heightened volatility. 

    Related Reading

    Back in December, demand had bottomed near -154,000 BTC, a quantity that helps explain the sluggish price action that persisted in the following weeks. Since then, the pressure has been quietly easing. Selling activity is slowing, and structural accumulation is beginning to re-emerge, signaling a potential shift in market dynamics.

    It’s important to understand what this metric represents, which is whether long-term holders are absorbing new supply. When demand is deeply negative, the market tends to struggle. Conversely, when the metric turns positive, it suggests that buying activity is rebuilding, creating conditions for a healthier market structure.

    That said, the market is not out of the woods yet. A single positive print does not confirm a trend reversal. However, if this recovery in demand persists, it is often one of the earliest indicators that the market is transitioning from a distribution phase back toward accumulation, setting the stage for potential sustained strength in the weeks ahead.

    Bitcoin
    BTC trading at $68,212 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

    Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

    [ad_2]

    Godspower Owie

    Source link

  • The Great Bitcoin Handover: $8.2 Billion BTC Swamps Binance As Retail Momentum Fades

    [ad_1]

    Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $69,000 level as persistent selling pressure continues to dominate the short-term market structure. After multiple failed attempts to establish acceptance above this key psychological threshold, price action reflects a defensive environment marked by reduced risk appetite and elevated volatility. Traders remain cautious, with liquidity conditions tightening and momentum favoring sellers rather than sustained accumulation.

    Related Reading

    New on-chain data shared by analyst Maartunn adds another layer to the current landscape. According to his insights, Bitcoin whales are firmly dominating the market structure at this stage of the cycle. Over the past 30 days alone, approximately $8.24 billion worth of whale-held BTC has flowed into Binance, marking the highest level of large-holder inflows to the exchange in the last 14 months. Such a concentration of activity suggests that major participants are actively repositioning.

    The data also underscores Binance’s continued role as the primary liquidity venue for large-scale transactions. When whale flows accelerate toward exchanges at this magnitude, it often signals heightened strategic activity — whether for distribution, hedging, or tactical allocation. As Bitcoin consolidates below resistance, the behavior of these dominant market participants may play a decisive role in shaping the next directional move.

    Whale Dominance Intensifies As Retail Momentum Cools

    Maartunn further detailed the 30-day flow breakdown, offering a clearer view of how market participation is evolving. Over the past month, whale inflows to Binance have reached $8.24 billion and continue to trend higher. In comparison, retail inflows total approximately $11.91 billion but have begun to flatten. As a result, the retail-to-whale ratio currently stands at 1.45 and is steadily compressing.

    Binance Whale to Exchange Flow | Source: CryptoQuant

    Although retail participation remains visible, its momentum is cooling. The pace of smaller deposits has slowed, suggesting declining conviction or reduced speculative activity among short-term traders. In contrast, whale deposits have increased consistently over the same period, indicating that larger entities are either actively positioning or reallocating capital with greater urgency.

    This dynamic is narrowing the gap between large and small participants on the exchange. When whale flows accelerate while retail flows plateau, market structure tends to become more top-heavy, with price increasingly influenced by institutional-scale actors rather than fragmented retail activity.

    The key takeaway is clear: large players are becoming more dominant on Binance, while smaller participants are gradually losing relative influence. In the current environment, Bitcoin’s next directional move may depend more heavily on whale strategy than retail sentiment.

    Related Reading

    Bitcoin Tests Critical Support As Downtrend Accelerates

    Bitcoin’s 3-day chart reflects a decisive loss of momentum following the rejection near the $120,000 region in late 2025. Since that peak, price structure has transitioned into a clear corrective phase characterized by lower highs and accelerating downside pressure. The most recent leg lower shows a sharp breakdown from the $90,000–$95,000 consolidation zone, with BTC now hovering around the $68,000 area.

    BTC testing critical demand | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
    BTC testing critical demand | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

    Technically, Bitcoin is trading below the shorter-term moving average, which has rolled over and is sloping downward, reinforcing near-term bearish momentum. The intermediate moving average is flattening and beginning to turn lower, signaling weakening trend strength. Meanwhile, the long-term average remains upward sloping but sits well below current price levels, suggesting that while the macro structure has not fully collapsed, the market is in a transitional phase.

    Related Reading

    Volume expanded noticeably during the recent selloff, indicating active distribution rather than a passive drift lower. However, the latest candles show some stabilization near the $65,000–$70,000 support region, an area that previously acted as a breakout zone earlier in the cycle.

    A sustained reclaim of the $75,000–$80,000 range would be required to restore bullish structure. Failure to hold current levels could expose deeper retracement toward long-term trend support.

    Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

    [ad_2]

    Sebastian Villafuerte

    Source link

  • Bitcoin Consolidating In A Triangle—Is A 15% Move Next?

    [ad_1]

    A cryptocurrency analyst has highlighted how Bitcoin has been trading inside a Triangle that could set up a 15% move for the asset.

    Bitcoin Is Potentially Consolidating Inside A Symmetrical Triangle

    In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about a technical analysis (TA) pattern that Bitcoin has been trading inside recently. The pattern in question is a “Triangle,” which is a type of consolidation channel that, as its name suggests, has a triangular shape.

    The pattern is characterized by two converging trendlines. The lower of these is considered likely to be a point of support for the price, while the upper one that of resistance. A break out of either of these bounds can imply a continuation of trend in that direction.

    Triangles can be of a few different types based on the orientation of the trendlines with respect to each other and the graph axes. In an Ascending Triangle, the upper level is parallel to the time-axis. Similarly, the lower level being parallel creates a Descending Triangle.

    When both trendlines approach each other at a roughly equal and opposite slope, the pattern formed is known as a “Symmetrical Triangle.” The Triangle shared by Martinez that Bitcoin has been trading inside is the closest to this type.

    Below is a chart that shows the trajectory in cryptocurrency’s hourly price inside the pattern at the time of the post.

    As is visible in the graph, the 1-hour Bitcoin price found a bounce from the lower level of the triangular channel shortly before the post. Since then, however, BTC has seen some decline, which has taken it below the support line. This could be a potential indication that a breakout is occurring.

    In the post, Martinez had noted that the Triangle could set up a potential 15% move for the asset. This figure is based on the fact that Triangle breakouts are generally assumed to end up being of the same length as the height of the channel at the point where the trendlines are the furthest apart.

    If the latest price drop indeed reflects a break out of the pattern for Bitcoin, then this 15% move could possibly follow to the downside. Symmetrical Triangles tend to have an equal probability of a breakout occurring in either direction, since there is roughly an equal bias both up and down. This time, however, it would appear that the bearish direction might be the one in store for BTC.

    BTC Price

    Bitcoin has dropped to the $66,300 mark following its drop over the past day.

    Bitcoin Price Chart

    [ad_2]

    Keshav Verma

    Source link

  • Bitcoin May Gain If AI Job Losses Trigger Bank Stress, Hayes Says

    [ad_1]

    Arthur Hayes has issued a stark market warning: he sees a growing split between his preferred risk gauge, Bitcoin, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 as a signal that credit stress may be building under the surface.

    Related Reading

    Hayes, a co-founder and former CEO of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, calls Bitcoin a “fiat liquidity fire alarm” — an asset that reacts quickly when credit conditions change.

    A Warning From Market Signals

    When two assets that often moved together start to pull apart, traders take notice. Hayes believes that a gap like this deserves investigation because it could point to trouble in bank balance sheets or in the flow of lending.

    He argues the move is not about one stock or one trade; it is about the plumbing of credit and how fast liquidity can dry up when things turn.

    Source: Arthur Hayes

    How AI Job Cuts Could Ripple Through Credit

    Reports note that companies cited AI as a reason for thousands of layoffs in recent years, with an outplacement firm counting roughly 55,000 cuts in 2025 that were tied to AI. Much of that hit was inside tech.

    Hayes sketches a rough scenario: a sizable drop in knowledge-worker employment would weaken mortgage and consumer credit repayment, which could then shave bank equity and tighten lending.

    The numbers he offers are approximate and built on multiple assumptions, but they are intended to show how a shock to white-collar paychecks could cascade into the credit system.

    Source: Arthur Hayes

    Expectations About Central Bank Action

    Hayes expects a policy response if banks start to fail and credit freezes. He argues the Federal Reserve would step in with fresh liquidity, and that more money creation would follow — a move he says would be favorable for Bitcoin’s price outlook.

    That scenario has been a recurring theme in his commentary; past essays and posts have linked anticipated Fed liquidity to sharp rallies in crypto markets.

    BTCUSD currently trading at $67,298. Chart: TradingView

    Altcoin Bets And Fund Positioning

    His fund, Maelstrom, is said to plan staking or stablecoin deployments into privacy-focused and exchange-native plays once liquidity policy shifts occur, naming Zcash and Hyperliquid as examples. That kind of tactical stance is meant to profit from a short-term surge in risk assets after a policy pivot.

    Related Reading

    A Measured View

    This is a dramatic chain of events: AI job losses lead to credit losses, which cause bank stress, which forces the central bank to expand money supply, which lifts Bitcoin.

    Each link is plausible, but none is guaranteed. Some of Hayes’ figures are rough estimates meant to illustrate risk rather than to act as a precise forecast.

    Market history shows that central banks do sometimes step in, and that policy moves can power asset rallies, but outcomes depend on timing, scale and public confidence — factors that are hard to predict in advance.

    Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

    [ad_2]

    Christian Encila

    Source link

  • Bitcoin Miners Withdraw 36K BTC as Bullish Signals Grow

    [ad_1]

    More than 36,000 BTC left exchanges this month as miners shifted holdings to cold storage, hinting at bullish expectations ahead.

    Bitcoin miners have moved more than 36,000 BTC from exchanges since the beginning of February.

    The volume stands out when measured against earlier months and points to a change in how they are managing their holdings.

    Miner Activity in February

    A CryptoQuant report indicates that roughly 36,000 BTC were transferred from trading platforms within a short period this month. Out of that total, more than 12,000 BTC was withdrawn from Binance, while the remaining 24,000 BTC was distributed across several other exchanges. This shows that the activity occurred broadly across the market, instead of being linked to a single exchange or one isolated transaction.

    This type of activity is generally associated with long-term storage because miners typically move BTC to cold wallets instead of leaving their holdings on exchanges. Such transfers can also mean confidence in future price growth, as lower exchange balances reduce the amount of BTC readily available for sale on the spot market.

    CryptoQuant also noted that daily withdrawals accelerated during the period. On one day alone, more than 6,000 BTC was moved off exchanges, marking the highest single-day total since last November. Compared to January, February’s withdrawal levels are much higher, contributing to the view that miners are actively repositioning.

    At the same time, miners are not the only group showing sustained faith in the OG cryptocurrency’s upside. Data shows that long-term holders accumulated 380,104 BTC over the past 30 days, indicating continued demand from that segment of the market.

    Market Outlook

    The opening weeks of February have delivered a blow to BTC, with its price falling near the $60,000 at one point. Data from CoinGecko shows that over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency went from slightly over $67,000 to just under $70,000, while posting a decline of more than 28% over the past month.

    You may also like:

    However, analysts at VanEck describe the 2026 downtrend as an “orderly deleveraging” instead of a sudden collapse. Head of Digital Asset Research Mathew Sigel previously explained that this is because futures open interest has dropped by about 20%, suggesting leveraged positions are being reduced in a controlled manner rather than through panic-driven liquidations.

    February’s performance has also been shaped by institutional outflows, macroeconomic pressure, and tax-related factors. Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows are now exceeding inflows, suggesting profit-taking or a shift to defensive assets like gold. The Federal Reserve has also maintained rates near 3.75% amid 2.4% inflation, while the newly introduced Internal Revenue Service 1099-DA form adds compliance pressure for investors.

    SPECIAL OFFER (Exclusive)

    SECRET PARTNERSHIP BONUS for CryptoPotato readers: Use this link to register and unlock $1,500 in exclusive BingX Exchange rewards (limited time offer).

    [ad_2]

    Wayne Jones

    Source link

  • Crypto Funds Bleed $173M As Outflows Extend To Fourth Week – Report

    [ad_1]

    Crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) have extended their negative streak to a fourth consecutive week after US market weakness pushed global funds to over $170 million in weekly outflows.

    Related Reading

    Crypto Funds Outflows Extend Amid US Weakness

    According to the latest CoinShares data, crypto-based investment products recorded their fourth week of outflows amid the negative market sentiment of the past month.

    In a Monday report, James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, shared that global crypto funds closed the week with negative net flows totaling $173 million, bringing cumulative four-week outflows to $3.47 billion.

    Crypto asset funds see negative net flows for fourth consecutive week. Source: CoinShares

    Notably, crypto ETPs recorded over $1.7 billion in outflows each of the last two weeks of January as the market sentiment shifted, marking the largest negative net flows since November 2025.

    Over the past two weeks, investment products have seen outflows of $187m and $173m, respectively.  The latest figures suggest that the strong selling pressure has slowed, although it has not yet reversed despite improved market sentiment.

    “The week began on a more positive note, with inflows of US$575m, followed by outflows of US$853m, likely driven by further price weakness. Sentiment improved slightly on Friday following weaker-than-expected CPI data, with inflows of US$105m,” he detailed.

    Meanwhile, ETPs’ trading activity also dropped notably, with volumes falling to $27 billion from a record $63 billion recorded the previous week.

    Butterfill noted that the funds also saw a sharp regional divergence in sentiment between the US and the rest of the world. Per the report, the US saw $403 million in outflows last week, while all other regions recorded $230 million in inflows.

    Germany, Canada, and Switzerland registered the strongest performance, with inflows worth $114.8 million, $46.3 million, and $36.8 million, respectively.

    Altcoins See Selective Resilience

    As the report noted, the two leading cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), saw the worst performance among major assets. The flagship crypto had the weakest sentiment, recording $133 million in negative net flows, fueled by BlackRock IBIT’s $235 million in outflows.

    crypto
    BTC, ETH lead outflows, while altcoins show demand. Source: CoinShares

    However, short Bitcoin investment products also recorded outflows, totaling $15.4 million over the past two weeks, “a pattern often seen near market lows,” Butterfill added.

    Related Reading

    Ethereum suffered $85.1 million in outflows, led by BlackRock ETHA’s $112.7 million, while Hyperliquid saw $1 million in outflows.  On the flip side, some altcoin-based investment products saw positive sentiment, continuing to attract fresh inflows last week.

    Crypto funds based on XRP led the charge with $33.4 million in inflows, adding to the previous week’s $63.1 million positive flows. Solana ETPs followed second with $31 million inflows, a notable increase from the $8.2 million recorded the week prior, signaling confidence in these assets despite the broader trend.

    crypto, TOTAL
    The total crypto market capitalization is at $2.35 trillion in the one-week chart. Source: TOTAL on TradingView

    Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

    [ad_2]

    Rubmar Garcia

    Source link

  • Bitcoin Price To Bottom At $45K? On-Chain Indicator Says Yes

    [ad_1]

    The Bitcoin price remains in a fragile phase in its broader market structure, alternating between recovery attempts and lingering macro uncertainty. Structurally, the market is in a transitional state, as it leaves euphoric expansion but is not yet fully in capitulation.

    Ultimately, current price action reflects a tug of war between long-term conviction holders and short-term speculative flows. Nonetheless, on-chain data suggests that the premier cryptocurrency is likely to embark on more trips to the downside.

    CVDD: Bitcoin’s Compass to Cycle Lows Since 2012

    In a recent post on the X platform, market analyst Ali Martinez revealed that the Cumulative Value – Days Destroyed (CVDD) has identified Bitcoin’s bottom since 2012. According to the crypto pundit, the metric is one of the most respected long-term on-chain indicators for identifying structural lows, and its current value is $45,225.

    Related Reading

    Launched by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, CVDD is a long-term Bitcoin valuation metric designed to identify major market bottoms by analyzing the behaviour of long-term holders. To understand CVDD,  one needs to recognize the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD). 

    CDD is every Bitcoin accumulated that remains unmoved in a wallet. Now, CVDD tracks the cumulative historical value of destroyed coin days and adjusts it into a valuation model to produce a price level that historically aligns with the major Bitcoin cycle bottom.

    Since 2012, CVDD has consistently marked major Bitcoin price bottoms with remarkable accuracy. The model essentially measures when older, long–held coins are spent. Because long-term holders tend to distribute near cycle tops and accumulate during deep bear phases.

    Is Bitcoin Sitting On A Hidden Safety Net?

    Over time, CVDD has acted as a floor beneath price during severe drawdowns. In past cycles, including the 2015 bear market bottom, the 2018 capitulation, and the 2022 sell-off, the Bitcoin price often approached or briefly fell below the CVDD line before staging long-term recoveries. 

    Source: @ali_charts on X

    Currently, CVDD sits at $45,225, a level that represents what many would consider a deep value zone within the current market structure. It does not necessarily imply that price must fall to this level, but rather that it serves as a historically significant structural support if broader market conditions further deteriorate. 

    When BTC trades comfortably above CVDD,  it typically signals that the market remains in a healthier macro position. Meanwhile, when the Bitcoin price compresses towards it, sentiment often becomes pessimistic, and long-term accumulation tends to intensify.

    As Bitcoin consolidates within its current range, it might be helpful to monitor whether the price maintains sufficient distance above the $45,225 CVDD level. A decisive move toward it could signal deeper corrective pressure, while sustained strength above it reinforces the argument that the broader cycle remains structurally intact.

    As of this writing,  BTC is valued at around $70,000, reflecting a modest price increase of nearly 2% in the past day.

    Related Reading

    Bitcoin Price
    The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

     

    Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

    [ad_2]

    Opeyemi Sule

    Source link

  • Litecoin Closes Bullish — $57 Break Could Ignite Next Leg Up

    [ad_1]

    Litecoin has closed the daily session on a bullish note, signaling renewed short-term momentum as price presses against a key resistance level. With $57 now acting as the immediate barrier, a decisive breakout and sustained hold above this zone could open the door for the next leg higher, potentially accelerating upside toward the mid-$60s.

    Bullish Daily Close Signals Early Strength

    Providing a daily technical outlook on Litecoin, crypto analyst CryptoWzrd noted that LTC closed the session with a bullish daily candle, largely mirroring Bitcoin’s upward movement. The positive close signals improving short-term momentum, but the expert cautioned that broader continuation will require confirmation from additional market factors, particularly the LTCBTC pair.

    Related Reading: Litecoin Structure Intact, But $63 Remains The Line Bulls Must Defend

    Although Litecoin printed a constructive candle, LTCBTC closed indecisively, reflecting hesitation in Litecoin’s relative strength against Bitcoin. Sustained upside for LTC will likely depend on a shift toward clear bullish sentiment in LTCBTC, as that would confirm capital rotation and stronger underlying demand.

    From a structural perspective, CrytoWzrd emphasized that one more strong bullish daily candle from the current level is needed to validate a breakout above the daily lower-high trendline. If such confirmation occurs, Litecoin could transition into a more established bullish phase, with the $68 resistance level emerging as the next key upside target above the $56 zone. A stable and sustained move beyond resistance would further strengthen the case for trend continuation.

    Until that higher-timeframe breakout is confirmed, the analyst plans to focus on lower-timeframe setups, particularly over the weekend. His approach remains tactical, looking for quick scalp opportunities while waiting for a more mature chart structure before engaging in larger directional trades.

    $57: Litecoin Intraday Decision Zone

    The analyst went on to explain that Litecoin’s intraday structure is currently pressing against the key $57 resistance zone, a level that now acts as a short-term decision point for price. A clean and sustained hold above this area would signal strength and open the path toward $64, with the potential for further extension if momentum accelerates.

    Related Reading: Litecoin 2M Bollinger Band Width Hits New Lows, CMT-Certified Analyst Reveals What It Means

    He emphasized that simply wicking above resistance will not be enough. What’s needed is a stable bullish structure, ideally supported by rising volume and constructive follow-through, before considering a long position. Such confirmation would indicate that buyers are in control rather than the move being a temporary liquidity sweep.

    At the same time, he noted that Bitcoin’s direction will likely dictate whether this breakout gains traction. Litecoin continues to follow broader market sentiment, meaning BTC’s strength could act as a catalyst for further gains. Until a mature and well-defined intraday structure forms, patience remains essential before engaging the next trade.

    Litecoin

    [ad_2]

    Godspower Owie

    Source link

  • Nancy Guthrie disappearance: Former FBI agent weighs in on tracking ransom money

    [ad_1]

    AT THIS HOUR, AUTHORITIES IN ARIZONA ARE ASKING FOR ANY KIND OF VIDEO THAT COULD LEAD THEM TO NANCY GUTHRIE. ONE QUESTION IN THIS INVESTIGATION IS, WAS SHE KIDNAPED FOR RANSOM? THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF RANSOM NOTES, BUT IT’S NOT CLEAR IF THE GUTHRIE FAMILY HAS PAID ANYTHING AT THIS POINT. WESH 2’S LINDSEY TALKED WITH A FORMER FBI AGENT ON HOW THAT COULD BE A CRITICAL PART OF THE INVESTIGATION. VERY VALUABLE TO US, AND WE WILL PAY THE MAJORITY OF US. WATCH THAT VIDEO POSTED BY SAVANNAH GUTHRIE AND HER SIBLINGS SATURDAY. AND ALL WE COULD THINK IS THAT POOR FAMILY. BUT LAW ENFORCEMENT AND TECH EXPERTS LIKE KYLE ARMSTRONG ALSO SEE AN OPPORTUNITY THERE TO BRING NANCY GUTHRIE HOME. THE PAYMENT IS MADE AND IT GOES THE BLOCKCHAIN WORLD. AT SOME POINT IT WILL BE CASHED OUT FOR FIAT CURRENCY. AND THAT’S THE OPPORTUNITY THAT LAW ENFORCEMENT WILL LOOK FOR. WHAT IS THE BLOCKCHAIN? ARMSTRONG, A FORMER FBI AGENT, NOW WORKS FOR TRM LABS, WHICH SPECIALIZES IN BLOCKCHAIN INTELLIGENCE. ANYTIME THERE’S A BITCOIN TRANSACTION, THAT TRANSACTION IS PUBLISHED ON THE OPEN INTERNET, AND THE BLOCKCHAIN IS ESSENTIALLY THE RECORDING OF THAT TRANSACTION. TRANSACTIONS ARE FROM ONE ADDRESS TO ANOTHER. AND ANONYMOUS, OFTEN 20 PLUS CHARACTERS ALPHANUMERIC THAT ARE HARD TO CRACK. THEY ARE COMPANY WORKS TO US TO FOLLOW THOSE TRANSACTIONS, TO MAKE IT EASY TO GRAPH THOSE TRANSACTIONS, AND SIMPLER TO EXPLAIN. BUT HOW QUICKLY CAN YOU TRACK IT? ONCE A TRANSACTION IS HAS BEEN MADE AND THERE IS A RECIPIENT ADDRESS, THEN YOU CAN BASICALLY FLAG THAT ADDRESS. AND THEN ANYTIME THE ASSETS MOVE, THAT FLAG WILL CARRY WITH THEM IN THE IN OUR INTERNAL SOFTWARE. AND SO EVEN IF IT MOVES TEN TIMES IN A CIRCUITOUS MANNER, WHEN THE FUNDS EVENTUALLY HIT ONE OF THESE EXCHANGES, THEY WILL KNOW. SO KYLE ARMSTRONG SAYS IF A SUSPECT DOES TRY TO WITHDRAW THAT MONEY, THE EXCHANGE WOULD THEN FREEZE IT AND IMMEDIATELY CONTACT POLICE. THAT IS REALLY INTERESTING. BUT WHAT HAPPENS IF THEY DON’T TRY TO WITHDRAW IT AND THEY TRY TO DO SOMETHING ELSE, OR BUY SOMETHING ELSE? REALLY GOOD QUESTION. BUT THINK ABOUT THIS. YOU CAN’T REALLY GO OUT RIGHT NOW AND BUY A CAR OR A HOME WITH BITCOIN. MAYBE THAT COULD HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE. EVENTUALLY YOU HAVE TO CASH SOMETHING OUT. AND IN FACT, ARMSTRONG POINTED TO A 2016 NEW YORK CASE WHERE IT’S BELIEVED A COUPLE STOLE CRYPTO BUT COULD NOT ACTUALLY SPEND IT. SO THEY STARTED BUYING UP GIFT CARDS. THE MOMENT THEY DID THAT, THERE WAS A RECORD. AND HE SAYS, YOU WILL BE

    Nancy Guthrie disappearance: Former FBI agent weighs in on tracking ransom money

    Updated: 4:49 PM PST Feb 12, 2026

    Editorial Standards ⓘ

    A former FBI agent who worked 14 years investigating illicit finance cases said the ransom note could be the opportunity to find “Today” show anchor Savannah Guthrie’s mother, Nancy.It’s unclear if the Guthrie family has agreed to pay anyone, but there were reports of two ransom notes demanding payment in Bitcoin. Kyle Armstrong, who worked for the FBI, now works for a blockchain intelligence company called TRM Labs. “If a ransom is paid, I’m certain that there will be several investigators,” Armstrong said. “When money goes in, there’s not a lot of retail use of cryptocurrency, especially a sizable amount. You really can’t buy cars. You can’t go to fancy vacations. You can’t do a lot of retail things with crypto. Ultimately, you have to exchange the cryptocurrency, primarily for fiat currency, for regular U.S. dollars, euros, whatever it is. That presents, usually, the opportunity for law enforcement to learn who is controlling this account.”When there’s a transaction, it’s from one address to another that is anonymous, but TRM Labs has a tool that can help law enforcement decipher that. “Anytime there’s a Bitcoin transaction, that transaction is published on the open Internet, and the blockchain is essentially the recording of that transaction. Our company works to follow those transactions, to make it easy to graph those transactions and simpler to explain. And then ultimately, we try to identify who’s controlling the addresses,” Armstrong said. He said there are cases where they can even flag the transaction so it can follow multiple movements. “Anytime the assets move, that flag will carry with them in the internal software. So even if it moves 10 times in a circuitous manner, when the funds eventually hit one of these exchanges, and they will know those funds have been identified by law enforcement as illicit,” Armstrong said.

    A former FBI agent who worked 14 years investigating illicit finance cases said the ransom note could be the opportunity to find “Today” show anchor Savannah Guthrie’s mother, Nancy.

    It’s unclear if the Guthrie family has agreed to pay anyone, but there were reports of two ransom notes demanding payment in Bitcoin.

    Kyle Armstrong, who worked for the FBI, now works for a blockchain intelligence company called TRM Labs.

    “If a ransom is paid, I’m certain that there will be several investigators,” Armstrong said. “When money goes in, there’s not a lot of retail use of cryptocurrency, especially a sizable amount. You really can’t buy cars. You can’t go to fancy vacations. You can’t do a lot of retail things with crypto. Ultimately, you have to exchange the cryptocurrency, primarily for fiat currency, for regular U.S. dollars, euros, whatever it is. That presents, usually, the opportunity for law enforcement to learn who is controlling this account.”

    When there’s a transaction, it’s from one address to another that is anonymous, but TRM Labs has a tool that can help law enforcement decipher that.

    “Anytime there’s a Bitcoin transaction, that transaction is published on the open Internet, and the blockchain is essentially the recording of that transaction. Our company works to follow those transactions, to make it easy to graph those transactions and simpler to explain. And then ultimately, we try to identify who’s controlling the addresses,” Armstrong said.

    He said there are cases where they can even flag the transaction so it can follow multiple movements.

    “Anytime the assets move, that flag will carry with them in the internal software. So even if it moves 10 times in a circuitous manner, when the funds eventually hit one of these exchanges, and they will know those funds have been identified by law enforcement as illicit,” Armstrong said.

    [ad_2]

    Source link

  • Bitcoin May Already Be Entering Crypto Winter, Researchers Warn

    [ad_1]

    Bitcoin’s recent slide has left traders squinting at charts and asking the same blunt question: correction or crash? Prices have tumbled sharply, but some market watchers still see this as a deep pullback inside a longer uptrend. Others warn the data points to something colder.

    Related Reading

    Price Decline And Hard Numbers

    According to XWIN Research’s CryptoQuant analysis, Bitcoin has fallen about 46% from a peak near $126,000 and now trades around $67,900 after five straight months of losses.

    The Fear & Greed Index sits at 14 — a reading labeled Extreme Fear. Reports note that net realized losses recently hit over $13 billion, a level that matched the worst stretches of the 2022 slump.

    In 2024, roughly $10 billion of inflows helped lift market cap. Then in 2025, more than $300 billion flowed in while the overall market value shrank. That odd mix of heavy inflows and falling market cap suggests selling pressure is higher than fresh buying.

    Capital Flows Versus Price Action

    Based on reports, the capital flow numbers are the most awkward fact for bulls. Money moved in, but value fell. Who was selling into that demand? Large holders, paper traders, or complex derivatives desks might have taken profits or hedged positions.

    The data alone doesn’t name the seller, but the pattern is a red flag. On-chain measures also reveal shrinking realized gains even as prices remained far above prior bear-era levels. That tends to weaken the internal strength of the market over time.

    Sentiment And Historical Echoes

    Some traders point to a quirk of memory: high nominal prices make pain feel milder. People don’t want to relive the chaos of 2022. Reports say the launch of spot ETFs and deeper institutional access have changed the market’s plumbing, and that gives many confidence.

    Bitcoin is now trading at $67,918. Chart: TradingView

    Yet sentiment readings at extreme fear often show up near capitulation points. It’s worth remembering that in 2022 realized losses peaked about five months before the market bottom, which means big losses can precede a final low by a long stretch.

    Technical Patterns And The Bigger Picture

    Bitcoin posted four consecutive losing months and a 41% decline across that stretch — a streak last seen during 2018 rather than 2022. That pattern matters because similar sequences have led to extended downturns in the past.

    Related Reading

    Bitcoin At A Crossroads As XWIN Flags Early Signs Of Crypto Winter

    For XWIN Research, the message is simple: price alone does not define the cycle. What matters is who is buying, who is selling, and whether demand can absorb supply without market value shrinking.

    Right now, that balance looks strained. Until inflows begin translating into sustained market cap growth and realized losses cool meaningfully, the firm believes the market should be treated with caution rather than optimism. Winter may not have fully arrived, but based on the data, the temperature is clearly dropping.

    Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

    [ad_2]

    Christian Encila

    Source link

  • How Much Would You Have If You Put $500 In Bitcoin In 2014 Vs. XRP?

    [ad_1]

    XRP and Bitcoin (BTC) were pitted against each other in a recent analysis, with market expert X Finance Bull revealing what early investors could have gained if they had invested $500 into both XRP and BTC in 2014. The analysis compares the performance of both cryptocurrencies over the years, highlighting the factors behind XRP’s growth and sustained momentum.

    What $500 In Bitcoin And XRP in 2014 Is Worth Today

    A new analysis by X Finance Bull reveals the dramatic growth potential of early investments in Bitcoin and XRP. According to the report, a $500 investment in XRP at the 2014 lows would be worth approximately $255,000 today. He compares XRP’s gains with those of Bitcoin, noting that if investors had bet the same amount in BTC in 2014, their investments would have grown to around $133,000. 

    Related Reading

    These figures suggest that XRP outperformed Bitcoin by more than twice over the same period, delivering a 511-fold return, compared to BTC’s 266-fold gain. During that time, XRP’s performance benefited not only from early, steady adoption and speculative interest but also from the continued development of its underlying payment system. 

    Over the years, XRP has moved beyond a purely speculative asset, gaining more traction as it evolves into a potential global settlement layer. Sharing similar sentiments, X Finance Bull highlighted how XRP’s infrastructure developments have significantly supported its significant price growth today. He noted that the cryptocurrency has seen major progress in areas such as Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), banking licenses, and enterprise-level adoption. 

    Notably, XRP Spot ETFs officially launched in November 2025, attracting massive inflows that have significantly boosted demand for XRP among institutional investors. In addition, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has conditionally approved Ripple’s application to establish a national trust bank charter. All of these developments have contributed to XRP’s price growth over the past few months. 

    In his post, X Finance Bull suggested that investors who held onto their XRP positions through the volatile years “know why they held.” Following the cryptocurrency’s dramatic rally above $3, many investors reaped the rewards of staying invested from its lows and trusting in its potential for future price appreciation. 

    Related Reading

    From 2018 to 2025, XRP struggled with a lawsuit filed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). During those years of legal turmoil, many investors continued to hold onto their XRP despite the uncertainty and price stagnancy. 

    Following Ripple’s legal win, XRP surpassed $3 in 2025, marking its first break above that level since 2018. Compared to XRP, Bitcoin has also experienced significant growth in the past few years. After crossing the $100,000 threshold in 2024, BTC continued its surge into 2025, finally hitting a peak above $126,000 in October.

    BTC trading at $66,670 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com

    Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from Tradingview.com

    [ad_2]

    Scott Matherson

    Source link

  • Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio Sinks To Historical Lows — Accumulation Next?

    [ad_1]

    Since reaching its current all-time-high price of $126,000 in October last year, the Bitcoin market has been on a sell-off, translating into surmounting bear pressure. As a result, the flagship cryptocurrency has maintained a steady decline, falling until it recently reached $60,000 — a deviation of more than 52% from its all-time high. 

    Bitcoin currently seems to be seeing a rebound, but price action alone reflects that it could as well be one of its short-term recoveries. Interestingly, a recent on-chain evaluation suggests that the current upward movement may be driven by a significant underlying metric.

    What The Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio Is Saying

    In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, Darkfost reveals that the Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio is now at a zone historically relevant to the ends of bear markets.

    The Sharpe Ratio is a risk-adjusted performance metric that measures how much return an asset (Bitcoin, in this case) generates for risk taken. A high ratio signals that returns are strong in relation to risks taken; a declining ratio, on the other hand, reflects weakening returns, while risk remains elevated.  On the severe end of the metric, a very low or negative Sharpe Ratio is a sign that market participants are taking very high risks for poor or negative returns. It is worth noting that very low Sharpe ratios are frequently seen during deep bear markets or even capitulation phases.

    According to historical data, Darkfost explains that the Sharpe Ratio is currently at a level so low as to be reminiscent of the final phases of past bear markets. This means that the Bitcoin price holds a higher practical risk, compared to returns, for current investors.  Notably, the Sharpe ratio is not just at a low point, but continues in a steady state of decline. This, according to the market quant, is a sign that Bitcoin’s performance is yet to be attractive to any willing risk-taker. 

    However, it is this specific dynamic that sets the pace for a turnaround in Bitcoin’s price. This is because sustained poor returns typically force capitulation events, where weaker hands are flushed out; this eventually sets the stage for renewed accumulation among stronger hands.

    Two Main Approaches To Consider In This Scenario: Analyst

    Seeing as the current market condition is still mostly uncertain, Darkfost offers two ways to engage the current scenario. First, the analyst states that investors could begin increasing exposure gradually, and in line with the ratio’s movement towards lower risk zones.

    Second, Darkfost explains that a market participant could decide to wait for clear improvements in the Sharpe Ratio before entering the market at all. This is to serve as a confirmation strategy for the purpose of investor safety.

    However, Darkfost notes that the present bear phase could last a couple more months before any true reversal is seen, regardless of the signal being flashed by the Sharpe Ratio. As of this writing, Bitcoin stands at a $69,064 valuation. CoinMarketCap data reflects a 1.71% loss over the past day.

    Bitcoin

    [ad_2]

    Semilore Faleti

    Source link

  • Bitcoin Taker Buy Ratio Signals Peak Bearish Sentiment — Relief Soon?

    [ad_1]

    The price of Bitcoin experienced one of the most bearish periods in its history over the past week, losing one crucial technical level after the other. According to data, the cryptocurrency market has seen $1 trillion worth of capital flow out since mid-January.

    With no doubt about the emergence of the bear season, investors are now approaching the market with greater skepticism and caution. One of the on-chain metrics highlighting this shift in behavior is the Bitcoin taker buy ratio, which has fallen to new lows.

    BTC Taker Buy Ratio Drops To 0.48

    In a new Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, market analyst CryptoOnchain shared a fresh on-chain angle to the ongoing selling pressure in the Bitcoin market. This observation is based on the declining Taker Buy Ratio on Binance, the world’s largest centralized exchange by trading volume.

    The Bitcoin Taker Buy Ratio is a sentiment indicator that estimates the proportion of trading volume owned by buyers against that of the sellers. Typically, values below 1 signal that taker sell volumes (aggressive selling) are outpacing taker buy volumes, which implies that sellers are overwhelming the buyers in the market.

    Highlighting data from CryptoQuant, CryptoOnchain revealed that the Bitcoin Taker Buy Ratio (14-day Moving Average) on Binance has dropped to 0.48, marking its lowest level since October 2025. Such a negative market sentiment on the world’s largest exchange spotlights a worrying trend in the general derivatives market.

    CryptoOnchain said: 

    A drop to such a significant low suggests that sellers are overwhelmingly dominating the order book, aggressively hitting bids without sufficient buying resistance.

    As the crypto pundit also pointed out, this drop in the Bitcoin Taker Buy Ratio coincided with the recent price correction, which saw the premier cryptocurrency fall to around $61,000. CryptoOnchain noted that this metric needs to stabilize and begin to rise again if the BTC price is to see any relief.

    The Quicktake post concluded:

    For a potential reversal or a local bottom, we need to see this metric stabilize and begin to trend upwards, indicating that aggressive selling is exhausted and buyers are stepping back in. Until then, caution is advised as the momentum remains heavily in favor of the bears.

    Bitcoin Price At A Glance

    After one of the largest “red” days in the crypto market, the price of BTC appears to be recovering nicely, having returned above the $70,000 on Friday. As of this writing, the flagship cryptocurrency is valued at around $70,263, reflecting an over 11% price jump in the past 24 hours.

     

    [ad_2]

    Opeyemi Sule

    Source link

  • Bitcoin falls to lowest level since Trump took office, Apple scales back AI health coach – Tech Digest

    [ad_1]

    Share



    The price of Bitcoin fell to its lowest level     in 16 months despite US president Donald Trump’s personal and public support for cryptocurrency. A single Bitcoin went as low as $60,000 (£44,000), its lowest level since September 2024, before rallying slightly. The drop followed months of surging Bitcoin prices, which saw the cryptocurrency hit an all-time high of $122,200 in October 2025. “Those who bet too big, borrowed too much or assumed prices only go up are now finding out the hard way what real market volatility and risk management look like,” Joshua Chu, co-chair of the Hong Kong Web3 Association told Reuters. BBC 

    TikTok could be forced into changes to make the app less addictive to users after the EU indicated the platform had breached the bloc’s digital safety rules. The EU’s executive arm said in a preliminary ruling that the popular app had infringed the Digital Services Act (DSA) due to its “addictive design”. The European Commission said TikTok, which has more than 1 billion users worldwide, had not adequately assessed how its design could harm the physical and mental wellbeing of users. The Guardian 


    Markets took a tumble this week as AI-company Anthropic released new add-ons to Claude that can perform a range of functions typically filled by software providers. Shares of software-as-a-service companies like Adobe, Intuit, and Salesforce declined sharply on fears that AI tools might chip away at their business. Legacy tech giants with large AI businesses like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google were also hit hard. Yahoo!

    Anthropic, one of the biggest and most influential tech companies in the world, is launching a new model: Claude Opus 4.6. Until now, this would mostly be big news for techies, where Anthropic is admired as the maker of Claude Code, the code-writing AI tool which many engineers say is taking over their work entirely. All of a sudden, however, the impact of these tools is being felt more widely, after a seemingly small release from Anthropic shook some sections of the stock market. Sky News 

    Apple is no longer launching an AI service that can “replicate” a doctor and act as a personal health coach, according to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman. The company has reportedly scaled back the unannounced initiative in recent weeks, following a recent organization reshuffling wherein services chief Eddy Cue took over the health division. While Apple has never officially announced the AI health coach, it was reported last year that the company was working on developing the service that has been unofficially dubbed Health+. Engadget


    The second set-top-box with Freely on board    , the Aero 4K TV Streamer comes from Manhattan, which has been making satellite and Freeview boxes and recorders for decades. And it’s instantly a serious contender – not just for Pleio, but Sky Stream and Virgin Media Stream, too. So what’s the catch – if there is one – and what do you get for a surprisingly low entrance fee? Well, a lot, it turns out. The Manhattan Aero is remarkably priced. Available from several UK retailers, including Currys (click here for the direct link), Amazon, and John Lewis, it will set you back a mere £69.99. T3.com

     


    For latest tech stories go to TechDigest.tv

    Discover more from Tech Digest

    Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

    [ad_2]

    Chris Price

    Source link

  • It’s the First Real Crypto Crash

    [ad_1]

    Photo-Illustration: Intelligencer; Photo: Getty Images

    Around Election Day, 2024, the price of bitcoin started a long, steep climb. Already priced near its all-time high, and driven in part by the imminent arrival of an extremely pro-crypto administration, a bitcoin worth around $70,000 was, by October of 2025, at more than $126,000. That, for the time being, was the top: By Thanksgiving, it was back near $90,000 before briefly stabilizing. This week, in the context of a broader plunge in tech stocks and commodities, it nearly touched $60,000.

    Longtime bitcoin holders will correctly point out that swings like this come with the territory and have plenty of recent precedent. In early 2018, bitcoin prices fell by more than half; if you were late to the COVID crypto boom, buying at the top and panic-selling at the bottom, you might have lost 75 percent of your money. They might also point out that, ten years ago, bitcoin was priced in the low hundreds.

    I won’t pretend to know where we are in this cycle or what the future holds for bitcoin. But among crypto watchers, it does seem there’s an emerging sense that this crash is different. In the early 2010s, crypto was a curiosity; by the early 2020s, it was a multitrillion-dollar phenomenon that had emerged from outside of traditional finance. Now, both politically and mechanically, it’s part of the system. Credible estimates put crypto ownership at around 14 percent of U.S. adults in 2025, with that number reaching 25 percent among men ages 18 to 49. Run-ups tend to attract more people to crypto, so the numbers now are almost certainly higher.

    That’s a lot of people feeling the pain right now, and they’re doing so in a changed environment. Early crypto investors found one another on forums, counseling one another on whether to sell — never! — between discussions about the philosophy and possible futures of digital currency. As crypto went more mainstream, its culture grew to encompass mercenary gamblers and investors, who understood it in terms of risk, upside, bets, and trades. The 2020s re-narrativized crypto as a tool to remake the internet, the financial system, and pretty much anything else — this was the era of Web3 and the crypto-adjacent metaverse — marshaling the storytelling resources of Silicon Valley in the process. While the price of Bitcoin, if not most other cryptocurrencies, more than recovered after the subsequent slump — and helped the crypto lobby grow into a massive lobbying force — the blockchain-everything story never quite did, at least with the public, and was replaced the next time around by a volatile political story, rendered crudely as Trump loves crypto — go go go.

    Now, Bitcoin investors looking to one another for comfort, or for novel and compelling counternarratives and a fresh, forward-looking thesis, aren’t getting much. As Joe Weisenthal at Bloomberg noticed:

    There’s not really a crypto presence on social media these days. Yes, of course, there’s still tons of scammers out there that will spam your replies, but there’s not really an online Bitcoin (or even Ethereum) community like there was a few years ago. Maybe it’s some change to the X algorithm or something like that, but that whole scene has really hollowed out. Nobody’s around to console each other.

    It’s true: Look around the parts of social media where crypto’s narrative recovery would have previously taken place, and you’ll see a bunch of people — many of the same people — talking about AI. For most other investments, this might not sound like the most important thing. For an alternative currency that you can’t really use as money — and that has drawn new holders with an extremely wide range of compelling, sometimes tenuous, and often conflicting stories about why it should be more valuable — it matters a lot.

    Among those counternarratives is the case for bitcoin as a hedge against currency debasement, suggesting it should be having a moment; instead, it’s moving alongside tech stocks. As with tech stocks, people with no direct interest in crypto are also exposed, now that public pension funds are invested in bitcoin treasury companies, for example, whose stocks have collapsed. And in recent years, a widening pool of investors has bet on crypto through ETFs, which they can buy through traditional brokerage accounts, and which come with the imprimatur of major financial institutions. (An August executive order signed by Donald Trump, titled “Democratizing Access to Alternative Assets for 401(k) Investors,” ordered regulators to figure out how to get crypto, along with other nontraditional assets, into 401(k)s. While that hasn’t yet come to pass, the fact that it didn’t help keep crypto prices up is, as they say, bearish.)

    It’s the first real crypto crash: Another fundamentally hard-to-explain swing in a speculative asset, sure, but also a sudden dip in an institutionally and culturally legitimized investment that affects millions of people directly — and indirectly — as a part of the real economy. Bitcoin isn’t an escape from the system. It’s part of it, now, and so is its risk.

    [ad_2]

    John Herrman

    Source link