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Tag: Banks

  • Bank card fraud exploded during the pandemic. Then came the bot hiring boom

    Bank card fraud exploded during the pandemic. Then came the bot hiring boom

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    Banks getting bigger is nothing new. The 2019 merger between two big banks, BB&T and SunTrust, which created Truist, was the largest in roughly a decade for the sector, and as big deals do, it led to a review of inefficiencies and opportunities, including in the back office.

    As Jarel Hawkins, former senior vice president of enterprise intelligent automation recently told CNBC at its Technology Executive Council Summit, the infrastructure and architecture was about five years behind and in need of modernization. But it was the pandemic as much as the deal itself which led to one important change in how the company looked at the combination of human workforce and technology.

    The use of digital banking boomed during the pandemic lockdowns and that led to an exponential growth in fraud. This led Truist to bring in robotic automation processing company UiPath to scale up its use of bots in the fraud process, and scale it down to the level of low-dollar transactions it previously would not have scrutinized as closely. Fraud was costing the bank a significant amount of money, but previous to the pandemic, employing a human workforce for every charge was not an efficient or economic way to solve the problem. The costs of the fraud were being refunded to consumers, but the bank was not claiming the costs back from payment processors.

    But once the two banks combined, “it became really valuable,” Hawkins said, just as the pandemic was leading to more fraud at low transaction values. “We went from 37,000 [claims] annually to 26,000 a month,” he said. Now, Hawkins says, it’s “upwards of eight figures” in new money coming back to the bank balance sheet as a result of the automation. 

    Robotic process automation allows a firm to learn where human errors are taking place in existing processes and teach automation to follow processes exactly as intended, while also identifying where human intervention is still needed. “Many cases [AI] can do 99% of the things correct,” Robert Enslin, co-CEO of UiPath, told CNBC, “and then there’s one or two things that a human needs to look at. And by automating so much of the process, you move the process through fast and you allow the humans to actually interact with the system in the areas that [they] absolutely must.” 

    Low-dollar chargebacks ranging from $50 to $100 can now proceed through a back-end process employing “digital workers” and existing business logic to connect with the payment processor and get a claim reimbursed to a customer. Bots also can be scaled up and down. In this case, as the cases of fraud rose, rather than trying to train employees to be able to handle a high volume process, a digital workforce could be scaled up immediately. “You can scale it up and down based on the economics of what’s happening around,” Enslin said.

    “Our consumers didn’t see any change in their experience. But we were able to drive that. And one of the great pieces of it is we were able to scale and go after higher value claims, $100, $200, $300, to expand and leverage that process,” Hawkins said.

    Truist next may take similar automation to its commercial business and its high-net-worth business next. “Fraud doesn’t care where it is,” Hawkins said.

    The bots, meanwhile, don’t take much time to get up to speed on a new market, and can work overnight.

    Watch the video above to learn more about how UiPath and Truist partnered with each other and the bots to solve an evolving fraud problem.

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  • ‘It’s possible the market can rally’: Financial advisors say a recession isn’t inevitable

    ‘It’s possible the market can rally’: Financial advisors say a recession isn’t inevitable

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    ‘It’s possible that the market can rally’

    There’s a difference between what CEOs forecast for the economy and how the market will perform, Karen Firestone, chairman and CEO of Aureus Asset Management, said Tuesday during the CNBC Financial Advisor Summit.

    That’s because investors try to get ahead of what’s coming and price those expectations into stocks, Firestone said.

    “The market always anticipates slowdowns and recoveries,” she said, adding that people inevitably resume their buying when they believe stocks are sufficiently discounted.

    She reminded investors that the market bottomed in March 23, 2020 “after it had fallen 34% and we hadn’t even locked down for more than a week. That was the beginning of Covid, but it was the beginning of a bull market.”

    “And so yes,” she said, “I think it’s possible that the market can rally.”

    ‘I think we need to…be very, very granular’

    Another problem with sweeping generalizations and predictions for stocks is that “everything in this market right now is moving asynchronously,” said Jenny Harrington, CEO and portfolio manager at Gilman Hill Asset Management, in New Canaan, Connecticut.

    Although there’s been a slowdown in the housing market, Harrington pointed out, airline and hotel companies are seeing an uptick in profits.

    “I think we need to right now be very, very granular,” she said.

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    For her clients, Firestone is on the lookout for discounts in the market.

    ‘There are opportunities in sectors and in stocks that have had their own internal recession because of what’s happened with the pandemic, or coming out of it,” Firestone said. For example, stocks in the advertising sector are trading at lower prices than usual.

    “We can say, ‘At these prices, there’s something to look forward to,’” she said.

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  • How bots are being deployed inside banks after a pandemic boom in fraud

    How bots are being deployed inside banks after a pandemic boom in fraud

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    UiPath co-CEO Robert Enslin and Jarel Hawkins, former head of enterprise intelligence automation at Truist, join CNBC’s Frank Holland for a CNBC Technology Executive Council Summit conversation about how bots are helping banks fight fraud.

    06:05

    Tue, Dec 6 20222:25 PM EST

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  • Be careful buying banks right now, warns Hightower’s Link

    Be careful buying banks right now, warns Hightower’s Link

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    CNBC’s ‘Halftime Report’ investment committee, Stephanie Link, Jim Lebenthal, Jenny Harrington and Sarat Sethi discuss their calls of the day and the financial trade.

    03:45

    Tue, Dec 6 20221:34 PM EST

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  • Morgan Stanley cut about 2% of staff Tuesday, sources say

    Morgan Stanley cut about 2% of staff Tuesday, sources say

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    James Gorman, chief executive officer of Morgan Stanley, speaks during a Bloomberg Television interview on day three of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, on Thursday, Jan. 24, 2019.

    Simon Dawson | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Morgan Stanley cut about 2% of its staff on Tuesday, according to people with knowledge of the layoffs.

    The moves, reported first by CNBC, impacted about 1,600 of the company’s 81,567 employees and touched nearly every corner of the global investment bank, said the people, who declined to be identified speaking about terminations.

    Morgan Stanley is following rival Goldman Sachs and other firms including Citigroup and Barclays in reinstating a Wall Street ritual that had been put on hold during the pandemic: the annual culling of underperformers. Banks typically trim 1% to 5% of those it deems its weakest workers before bonuses are paid, leaving more money for remaining employees.

    The industry paused the practice in 2020 after the pandemic sparked a two-year boom in deals activity; deals largely screeched to a halt this year amid the Federal Reserve’s aggressing rate increases, however. The last firm-wide reduction in force, or RIF, at Morgan Stanley was in 2019.

    At the New York-based firm, known for its massive wealth management division and top-tier trading and advisory operations, financial advisors are one of the few categories of workers exempt from the cuts, according to the people. That’s probably because they generate revenue by managing client assets.

    CEO James Gorman told Reuters last week that the bank was gearing up for “modest cuts,” but declined to cite specific timing or the magnitude of the dismissals.

    “Some people are going to be let go,” Gorman said. “In most businesses, that’s what you do after many years of growth.”

    This story is developing. Please check back for updates.

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  • Jamie Dimon says inflation eroding consumer wealth may cause recession next year

    Jamie Dimon says inflation eroding consumer wealth may cause recession next year

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    JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said inflation could tip the U.S. economy into recession next year.

    While consumers and companies are currently in good shape, that may not last much longer, Dimon said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” Consumers have $1.5 trillion in excess savings from Covid pandemic stimulus programs and are spending 10% more than in 2021, he said.

    “Inflation is eroding everything I just said, and that trillion and a half dollars will run out sometime midyear next year,” Dimon said. “When you’re looking out forward, those things may very well derail the economy and cause a mild or hard recession that people worry about.”

    The veteran JPMorgan CEO began to raise concerns about the economy earlier this year. In June, he said he was preparing his bank for an economic hurricane on the horizon, in part because of the Federal Reserve’s reversal of bond-buying programs and the Ukraine war.

    Adding to pressure for borrowers, the Fed’s benchmark interest rate is headed to 5%, Dimon noted Tuesday. That rate “may not be sufficient” to subdue inflation, he added.

    During the wide-ranging interview, Dimon called cryptocurrencies “a complete sideshow” that is rife with criminality and said globalization was in the process of being partly reversed as supply chains are restructured amid heightened geopolitical tensions.

    Dimon, 66, has led the New York-based bank since 2006. Under his leadership, JPMorgan became the biggest U.S. bank by assets as it weathered the 2008 financial crisis, its aftermath and the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.

    While the prospects for the economy may be dimming, the banking industry will be able to withstand a cycle of higher loan defaults, he said. That’s in part because of the new capital requirements imposed on the industry after the 2008 crisis.

    “The American banking system is unbelievably sound in a million different ways,” Dimon said. “Our capital cup runneth over.”

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  • Jamie Dimon says Ukraine war shows we still need cheap, secure energy from oil and gas

    Jamie Dimon says Ukraine war shows we still need cheap, secure energy from oil and gas

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    Dimon said in June that he was preparing the bank for an economic “hurricane” caused by the Federal Reserve and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

    Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    One key lesson of the past year is that the world is not ready to move away from oil and gas as the dominant source of fuel, according to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon.

    The bank leader said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday that the ongoing war in Europe highlighted that fossil fuels are still a key component of the global economy and would remain so for the foreseeable future.

    “If the lesson was learned from Ukraine, we need cheap, reliable, safe, secure energy, of which 80% comes from oil and gas. And that number’s going to be very high for 10 or 20 years,” Dimon said.

    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year sent commodity prices soaring, including oil and natural gas. U.S. oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude traded above $100 per barrel for much of the spring and summer, though it has since eased back toward pre-war levels.

    The rising price of natural gas has been a particular pain point in Europe, which previously relied on heavily on Russian gas for home heating.

    Dimon said that world leaders while pursuing renewable alternatives need to focus on an “all of the above” energy strategy to maintain fuel for economies and reduce carbon emissions, not neglecting oil and gas production in the near term.

    “Higher oil and gas prices are leading to more CO2. Having it cheaper has the virtue of reducing CO2, because all that’s happening around the world is that poorer nations and richer nations are turning back on their coal plants,” Dimon said.

    The JPMorgan leader had previously declined a pledge to stop doing business with fossil fuels, saying in a Congressional hearing that the move would be a “road to hell for America.”

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  • Morgan Stanley double upgrades JPMorgan Chase, sees positive operating leverage for the bank in 2023

    Morgan Stanley double upgrades JPMorgan Chase, sees positive operating leverage for the bank in 2023

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  • Germany’s housing market is ripe for a serious price correction, economists warn

    Germany’s housing market is ripe for a serious price correction, economists warn

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    The German housing market has been remarkably strong in the last couple of decades, but it faces a serious price correction in the next couple of years, according to some analysts.

    Tim Graham / Contributor / Getty Images

    The German housing market has been remarkably strong for decades, but it faces a serious price correction in the next couple of years, according to analysts.

    Mortgage rates have soared, with a 10-year fixed rate up from 1% to 3.9% since the start of the year, according to Interhyp data, which typically causes demand to cool as fewer people can afford to take out loans.

    House prices have already declined around 5% since March, according to Deutsche Bank data, and they will drop between 20% and 25% in total from peak to trough, forecasts Jochen Moebert, a macroeconomic analyst at the German lender.

    “If you think about mortgage rates of 3.5% or 4% then you need higher rental yields for investors and given that rents are relatively fixed, it’s clear prices have to fall,” Jochen says. Rental income is a priority for German investors, with approximately 5 million people in Germany receiving revenue from renting, according to The Cologne Institute for Economic Research, and the country having the second-lowest share of homeowners of all the OECD countries, according to the Bundesbank.

    While Deutsche Bank doesn’t have specific data for when the bottom will be reached, Jochen said he wouldn’t be surprised if it was over the next six months.

    “We already saw the steepest price declines if you look month-over-month — this was in June and July … In August, September and October the price declines are already below 1% … So there is some positive momentum here if you look from an investor’s perspective.”

    Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, anticipates a house price decline of “at least 5% if not a bit more” in the next year.

    “The housing market is softening significantly,” he said, citing a strong decrease in demand for loans and a drop in housing construction.

    And while the language used may vary, many analysts are forecasting a dip in Germany’s housing market.

    “We expected if there was no energy crisis, no recession, prices would increase further. Now we have a situation where we face a very dramatic adjustment of conditions,” Michael Voigtländer from The Cologne Institute for Economic Research told CNBC.

    A recent UBS report went as far as to place two German cities — Frankfurt and Munich — in the top four of its Global Real Estate Bubble Index for 2022, as locations with “pronounced bubble characteristics.” 

    UBS defines “bubble” qualities as a decoupling of housing prices from local incomes and rents and imbalances in the local economy, including excessive lending and construction activity. 

    The definition doesn’t suit the German property market as a whole though, UBS Real Estate Strategist Thomas Veraguth told CNBC.

    The situation in Germany is “not going to be a typical bubble burst as we experienced in the financial crisis … but rather it will be a correction,” Veraguth said.

    “In real terms a bubble burst would be more than 15% decrease in prices and that would be a very, very bad scenario, a very strong, high risk scenario that is not the base case at the moment,” he added.

    A Reuters poll of property market experts last month anticipated German house prices would fall by 3.5% next year.

    A ‘vulnerable’ market

    But not all financial institutions agree that Germany’s property market is set for a large correction.

    “We do see a slowdown in the price growth for residential real estate but it’s not that the overall dynamic has reversed,” Bundesbank Vice President Claudia Buch said in an interview with CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche last month.

    “On balance, house prices are still rising, albeit at a slower pace,” Buch said. “That said, there are no signs of a severe slump in real estate prices or of overvaluations receding.”

    The Bundesbank will continue to monitor the housing market closely because it is “vulnerable,” according to Buch.

    German central bank sees property market slowdown but no significant correction ahead

    Analysts at S&P Global have also rejected the idea of a “severe slump” in the market. In fact, the financial analytics company said the outlook is stronger than its most recent forecast, published in July.

    “It’s likely we will have to revise up our price forecasts for Germany for this year,” Sylvain Broyer, EMEA chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, told CNBC.

    “We still have very strong demand,” he said.

    Broyer also said it will take time for a change in financial conditions and fiscal tightening to trickle down and affect the housing demand.

    “More than 80% of mortgages in Germany are financed with fixed rates, so many households have locked [in] the very favourable financing conditions we had until very recently for five to 10 years,” he said.

    The Association of German Pfandbrief Banks (VDP) uses information from more than 700 banks to produce its property price index, and data from the latest quarter shows prices were up by 6.1% compared to the previous quarter.

    The organization anticipates we have already seen the peak in Germany property prices “for the time being” but the fundamentals of the market are still working well, according to VDP CEO Jens Tolckmitt.

    The scarcity of housing, increasing rental prices and a strong labor market will continue to support the market, Tolckmitt said, and even if house prices dropped, it wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing.

    “If house prices reduced by 20%, which we do not expect at the moment, then we would be on the price level of 2020. Is this a problem? Maybe not,” Tolckmitt said.

    “That was the price level we reached after 10 years of price increase,” he added.

    The labor market is key

    Moves in the labor market will determine how the property market shifts, according to some analysts.

    “Should the labor market prove resilient to the technical recession we will have at the end of this year into the next, that is a strong positive for the housing market,” Broyer said. 

    Schmieding made similar comments but over a longer timeframe, saying the medium- to long-term outlook for the German property market “will be good, as long as the country has a buoyant labor market.”

    Commerzbank expects an increase in bad loans, CEO says, but no disaster

    Employment in Germany is at a record high at 75.8%, but with the country likely to slip into “mild recession” in the coming months, that figure could be impacted.

    German GDP figures released last month raised hopes of a milder recession than expected, with the economy having grown slightly more than expected in the third quarter.

    The German economy grew by 0.4% compared to the second quarter and by 1.3% year-on-year, according to the Federal Statistics Office.

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  • Banks must ensure their core activities are not outsourced: RBI ED

    Banks must ensure their core activities are not outsourced: RBI ED

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    Banks have to ensure that none of their core banking activities are outsourced at any point in time, according to Ajay Kumar Choudhary, Executive Director, Reserve Bank of India. This will ensure stability of the banking system.

    “As the technology and systems are evolving, we are observing an increase in the outsourcing of services in the banking and financial sector. With the advent of fintech coupled with easier access to mobile phones, internet, higher speed, higher bandwidth, reduced cost of tech products, the industry is witnessing immense growth in terms of expansion as well as customer acquisition,” Choudhary said at the IBA Banking Technology Conference.

    He observed that fintech is transforming the way financial services are delivered (how credit is extended, how payments are made or the way wealth management/ invesment advice is provided, insurance is priced, etc).

    “Many of the industry participants are focussing on collaborating with fintechs, partnering with them for efficient delivery of financial services,” the RBI ED said.

    He noted that the role of fintechs can also been seen in enhanced customer facing applications, efficient data analytics, alternate credit models, etc.

    Need for safeguards

    “While outsourcing any such roles to third parties, it is very important that adequate safeguards are established to seal the institution as well as the financial stability of the banking system.

    “In line with our outsourcing guidelines, the Board and senior management must ensure that at no point of time the core activities of banks are outsourced and as it is said “put not all thy eggs in one basket”. The industry must ensure that there is no concentration risk which may risk the stability of the entire system,” Choudhary said, adding that banks need to diversify.

    Given the velocity with which the tech industry is evolving, it gets demanding on the industry, requiring participants to keep pace with it, he said. “This, in turn, leads them to collaborate with limited tech providers. This may result in concentration, which may prove to be severe when it comes to a mishap,” Choudhary said.

    Diversification is, perhaps, the easiest way to mitigate such risk. Participants should explore more options when it comes to technology, he added.

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  • The IRS reminds Americans earning over $600 on PayPal, Venmo, or Cash App transactions to report their earnings

    The IRS reminds Americans earning over $600 on PayPal, Venmo, or Cash App transactions to report their earnings

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    If you use third-party payment platforms, like PayPal, Venmo or Cash App, to collect payments for your side gig or business, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) wants to remind you to report payments of at least $600.

    This rule is aimed at individuals who run a side hustle, small business or do part-time work. So if you’re just sending money to friends for a restaurant bill or a vacation, or collecting a one-time payment for selling something online, this won’t apply to you.

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    Before 2022, third-party transactions for business owners and side hustlers followed different thresholds: individuals needed to report gross payments exceeding $20,000 and report earnings if they had more than 200 such transactions, according to the IRS. But as a result of the American Rescue Plan Act, any transactions made after March 11, 2021 that exceed $600 must be reported to the IRS, regardless of how many of those transactions you’ve had.

    These earnings were already taxable so this is not a change in tax law, but rather just a reporting change.

    In order to report these earnings and transactions, you’ll need to file Form 1099-K. According to the IRS, you should receive this form from each third-party payment platform you received transactions through. If you incorrectly receive the form for personal transactions, the IRS recommends you contact the payment platform for a correction or to attach an explanation to your tax return.

    How to prepare to file taxes as a business owner

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  • Layoffs and shrinking bonuses hit Wall Street as Morgan Stanley announces job cuts

    Layoffs and shrinking bonuses hit Wall Street as Morgan Stanley announces job cuts

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    CNBC's Hugh Son reports on recent news from the banking sector.

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  • Goldman Sachs warns traders of shrinking bonus pool as Wall Street hunkers down

    Goldman Sachs warns traders of shrinking bonus pool as Wall Street hunkers down

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    David Solomon, chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs, speaks during the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, April 29, 2019.

    Patrick T. Fallon | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    Goldman Sachs traders and salespeople will have to contend with a bonus pool that’s at least 10% smaller than last year, despite producing more revenue this year, according to people with knowledge of the situation.

    That’s because the New York-based bank is dealing with a slowdown across most of its other businesses, especially investment banking and asset management, areas that have been hit by surging interest rates and falling valuations this year.

    Goldman began informing executives in its markets division this week to expect a smaller bonus pool for 2022, according to the people, who declined to be identified speaking about compensation matters. The figure will be cut by a “low double-digit percentage,” Bloomberg reported, although pay discussions will be ongoing through early next year and could change, the people said.

    Wall Street is grappling with sharp declines in investment banking revenue after parts of the industry involved in taking companies public, raising funds and issuing stocks and bonds seized up this year. Goldman was first to announce companywide layoffs in September, and since then Citigroup, Barclays and others have laid off staff deemed to be underperformers. JPMorgan Chase will use selective end-of-year cuts, attrition and smaller bonuses, and this week Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman told Reuters that he planned to make “modest” cuts in operations around the world.

    Despite the tough environment, trading has been a bright spot for Goldman. Geopolitical turmoil and central banks’ moves to fight inflation led to higher activity in currencies, sovereign bonds and commodities, and the bank’s fixed-income personnel took advantage of those opportunities.

    Revenue in the markets division rose 14% in the first nine months of the year compared with the same period in 2021, while the company’s overall revenue fell 21%, thanks to large declines in investment banking and asset management results. Accordingly, the amount of money the bank set aside for compensation and benefits also fell by 21%, to $11.48 billion through Sept 30.

    “We always tell people their bonus is based on how they did, how their group did, and finally how the company did,” said a person with knowledge of the company’s processes. “This year, some of the good money traders made will have to go fund the other parts of the bonus pool.”

    Employees should know that big banks including Goldman try to smooth out compensation volatility, meaning that valued workers contending with a slow environment may get better bonuses than the revenue figures would suggest, and vice versa, according to this person.

    A Goldman spokeswoman declined to comment on the bank’s compensation plans.

    While the overall size of bonus pools will be shrinking everywhere, individual performers may see more or less than they earned in 2021 as managers seek to reward employees they want to retain while signaling to others that they should pack their bags.

    The decrease in the bonus pool comes off a strong year for both trading and investment banking in 2021. In retrospect, that was probably the last gasp of a low interest rate era that encouraged companies to go public, issue securities and borrow money.

    The need for job cuts and smaller bonuses on Wall Street became clear by mid-year, when a hoped-for revival in capital markets failed to materialize.

    Investment bankers are likely to face the deepest pay cuts, with those involved in underwriting securities facing drops of up to 45%, according to industry consultants.

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  • Barclays downgrades Blackstone shares after firm limits withdrawals from real estate fund

    Barclays downgrades Blackstone shares after firm limits withdrawals from real estate fund

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  • ‘This is not a 2008’ — the banks are fine and capital levels are historically high, analyst says

    ‘This is not a 2008’ — the banks are fine and capital levels are historically high, analyst says

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    Neal Wilson, co-chief executive officer at EJF Capital, says he doesn’t see “a nasty … prognosis.”

    04:17

    Fri, Dec 2 20225:51 AM EST

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  • Sell Ally Financial as shares could fall nearly 30% from here, Morgan Stanley says in downgrade

    Sell Ally Financial as shares could fall nearly 30% from here, Morgan Stanley says in downgrade

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  • UK banks told to break ‘class ceiling’ with new targets to boost diversity among senior hires

    UK banks told to break ‘class ceiling’ with new targets to boost diversity among senior hires

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    The U.K.’s financial services sector has been issued new targets for at least half of senior leaders to come from working-class or lower socio-economic backgrounds by 2030.

    Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

    LONDON — The U.K.’s financial services sector must do more to “break the ‘class’ ceiling,” according to a government-backed task force, with new targets calling for at least half of senior leaders to come from working-class or lower socioeconomic backgrounds by 2030.

    The City of London Corporation, the governing body that oversees the U.K.’s finance industry, said Wednesday that the moves were crucial not only for improving boardroom diversity but also for boosting growth in the sector.

    In a new report, the governing body’s “socio-economic diversity taskforce,” which was commissioned in 2020, outlined a pathway for firms to ensure that accents and parentage do not dictate workplace progression.

    “We need to break the ‘class’ ceiling — removing unfair barriers to progression is not only the right thing to do, it will enable firms to boost productivity, retention levels and innovation,” Catherine McGuinness, chair of the task force, said.

    Falling short on diversity

    According to the study, around half of all U.K. financial services employees are currently from non-professional backgrounds, defined as working class and intermediate backgrounds. Yet, they tend to progress 25% slower than their peers.

    Just over a third (36%) of those employees manage to climb the ladder to senior levels, the report said. Meantime, employees from non-professional backgrounds tend to get paid up to £17,500 ($20,890) less per year, with zero links to their professional performance.

    The report also said that the U.K. has one of the poorest rates of social mobility in the developed world, meaning “those who are already economically advantaged tend to stay at the top”. 

    For too long, personal growth has been constrained by people’s socio-economic background.

    Andy Haldane

    co-chair of the socio-economic diversity task force, City of London Corporation

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  • Looking for a new credit card but not sure what to get? Use this tool to find the best one for you

    Looking for a new credit card but not sure what to get? Use this tool to find the best one for you

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    When it comes to finding the right credit card, you’ll want to consider a variety of factors. For instance, what types of credit cards can you get given your credit score? What do you like using rewards for — travel or cash-back? Are you willing to pay an annual fee?

    With so many different types of credit cards on the market, it can be hard to know which one is right for you. For that reason, Select has launched a credit card marketplace.

    The marketplace is designed to help you find the best credit card based on your lifestyle. With Select’s marketplace, people can search for cards based on credit score requirements, types of credit cards and card issuers. It’s free to browse and doesn’t require entering any personal information.

    Click here to check out Select’s Credit Card Marketplace

    Your credit score plays a big part in what type of credit card you can qualify for — most rewards credit cards require cardholders to have at least a good FICO score (or a 670 and above). The credit card marketplace allows people to filter for cards based on their credit scores, so consumers can see what cards they’re eligible for even if they have less than stellar credit. Just remember that credit card issuers look at factors beyond your credit score, such as income and the length of your credit history, so a certain credit score will not guarantee your approval for a card.

    The credit card marketplace also allows you to search for credit cards based on your lifestyle and financial needs. If you want a card that earns you miles and points so you can take that destination trip to Bali, Select has you covered: you can filter for travel cards or cards with no foreign transaction fees in the marketplace. Or if you need a 0% APR card to make gift purchases for the holiday season, you can filter for that too. The marketplace also has card options for students.

    Whatever your needs are —whether it’s a no-annual fee card, a cash-back card, a business card — the marketplace has options for you.

    And of course, if you want to search for cards offered by certain credit card issuers, you can do so through the marketplace. For instance, if you aren’t eligible for any more Chase credit cards because of its 5/24 rule, you can filter your search to only show American Express or Capital One cards.

    Regardless of what type of credit card you’re looking for, the credit card marketplace can help you narrow down your search to find the right card for your needs, and it’s just a click away.

    Click here to check out Select’s Credit Card Marketplace

    Editorial Note: Opinions, analyses, reviews or recommendations expressed in this article are those of the Select editorial staff’s alone, and have not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any third party.

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  • Europe’s biggest buyer of bonds is starting to think about selling

    Europe’s biggest buyer of bonds is starting to think about selling

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    Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank speaks at an event. The central bank is due to meet in mid-December for more monetary policy decisions.

    Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

    The European Central Bank could be about to answer a lingering question in the coming weeks that could have major repercussions for financial markets.

    At its December meeting, the ECB is set to discuss and reveal more concrete details on how it will unwind 8.8 trillion euros ($9.21 trillion) from its balance sheet — in a process known as quantitative tightening.

    For years, the central bank has been ultra loose with its monetary policy, buying sovereign debt across Europe to keep borrowing costs low for governments and, subsequently, for individuals to help stimulate growth.

    However, with inflation at record highs and a number of rate hikes under its belt, markets are now awaiting details on how and when the ECB will sell these bonds.

    “The biggest question in December is what they’ll do regarding QT,” Marchel Alexandrovich, European economist at Saltmarsh Economics, told CNBC over the phone.

    Back in October, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the discussions over bond sales will consider three main factors: the inflation outlook, the measures taken so far, and the transmission lag — given that it takes a while for any monetary decision to have an impact on the economy.

    Speaking Monday, Lagarde confirmed the timeline. “In December, we will also lay out the key principles for reducing the bond holdings in our asset purchase program portfolio,” she told European lawmakers.

    ‘Measured and predictable’

    ECB officials have suggested that the process will be “gradual” and “predictable” — meaning it’s not likely to be meeting dependent.

    At the moment, the central bank is applying a meeting-by-meeting approach to interest rate decisions, arguing there is a high degree of uncertainty preventing it from guiding the markets with more detail in the medium term.

    “It is appropriate that the balance sheet is normalized over time in a measured and predictable way,” Lagarde said Monday.

    As such, economists do not expect every detail to be outlined in December.

    “In December, the ECB will lay out some general principals about how it intends to conduct QT but not yet specify the precise amounts and timings of the balance sheet run-off,” Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, said via email.

    She added that the upcoming changes to the balance sheet will likely be applied only to the APP (Asset Purchase Program) holdings and not to PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program).

    APP started in mid-2014 to deal with persistently low inflation levels. It was frozen between January and October 2019 and then lasted until July 2022. On the other hand, PEPP was a more flexible bond purchase program introduced during the coronavirus pandemic.

    As part of the broader stimulus actions, the ECB has been reinvesting profits it made during these asset purchases. Instead of starting to unwind its balance sheet by selling the actual bonds, some expect the ECB to stop these reinvestments.

    “The ECB will shrink APP holdings only by ceasing to reinvest the proceeds of maturing APP assets, not by actively selling them. The pace of QT may be particularly slow initially, with the ECB still reinvesting the majority of the proceeds from maturing assets,” Palmas said.

    Economists at Nomura also expect the ECB to slow down these reinvestments as a first step in reducing its balance sheet.

    “We believe the ECB will allow only 1/3 of APP portfolio redemptions to be rolled off, with the remainder reinvested,” they said in a research note after the last ECB meeting. This is seen starting in the second quarter of 2023, according to the same note.

    Frederik Ducrozet, the head of macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management and an avid ECB watcher, said the bank “will probably introduce so-called caps on monthly reinvestments under the APP programme, up to which the ECB will stop reinvesting the proceeds of maturating securities.”

    He added that this would likely start in March.

    The ECB’s cumulative net purchases of government debt as of October 2022 stood at 2.74 trillion euros.

    Why investors worry about the euro

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  • HSBC: Short-term uncertainty but China’s supply chain ripple effect to be limited

    HSBC: Short-term uncertainty but China’s supply chain ripple effect to be limited

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    Frederic Neumann, managing director and co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC, discusses the eruption of protests against Covid restrictions in China and the potential impact on global markets.

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