In this photo illustration of the ripple cryptocurrency ‘altcoin’ sits arranged for a photograph on April 25, 2018 in London, England.
Jack Taylor | Getty Images News | Getty Images
U.S.-based crypto company Ripple no longer derives most of its income from America and is looking to expand its reach in Europe, its top lawyer said.
Speaking in an interview with CNBC earlier this week, Ripple General Counsel Stuart Alderoty said that “effectively, Ripple is operating outside of the U.S.” today due to the fallout from its extensive legal fight with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
“Essentially, its customers and its revenue are all driven outside of the U.S., even though we still have a lot of employees inside of the U.S.,” he added.
At the same time, Ripple is expanding its presence in Europe.
The startup has two employees on the ground in the Republic of Ireland currently. It is seeking a virtual asset service provider (VASP) license from the Irish central bank so that it can “passport” its services throughout the Eurpean Union via an entity based there, Alderoty told CNBC.
Ripple also plans to file an application for an electronic money license in Ireland “shortly.” Its commitment to invest in Europe comes despite a deep downturn in crypto markets that’s been referred to as “crypto winter.”
The Irish central bank previously handed a VASP license to crypto exchange Gemini.
Ripple, which helps financial institutions move money around the world using blockchain technology, has over 750 employees globally, with roughly half of them based in the U.S. About 60 are based in its London office, which Alderoty was visiting this week during a trip to the U.K. for its annual Swell event.
In 2020, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission initiated a lawsuit against Ripple alleging the company and its executives illegally sold XRP, a cryptocurrency its founders created in 2012, to investors without first registering it as a security.
Ripple disputes the claim, saying the token should not be considered an investment contract and is used in its business to facilitate cross-border transactions between banks and other financial institutions.
Alderoty said he expects a ruling on the case to arrive in the first half of 2023. Final legal briefs are due by Nov. 30, after which a judge can either make a ruling or refer it to a jury trial if they find there are any issues of disputed fact.
“We are at the beginning of the end of the process in our case,” Alderoty said.
As part of the proceedings, Ripple fought to obtain documents related to a June 2018 speech from former SEC official Bill Hinman, which it says has aided its case. In the speech, Hinman says that sales of ether, a rival token, “are not securities transactions.”
Despite its tense dispute with the SEC, Ripple is still “work very closely with policymakers in the U.S.,” Alderoty said.
XRP was once the third-largest cryptocurrency, commanding a $120 billion market value in early 2018. It has dropped sharply since, however, amid U.S. regulatory scrutiny and a wider downturn in bitcoin and other digital currencies.
Last week, the shock collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto exchange FTX sent cryptocurrencies into a tailspin. Bankman-Fried’s investment firm allegedly used FTX client funds to make risky trades, CNBC reported previously. The company spiraled into a liquidity crisis as customers demanded withdrawals and rival exchange Binance scrapped its nonbinding agreement to buy the company.
Bankman-Fried has said he got “overconfident” and “careless” as he grew FTX into a $32 billion juggernaut. He said that, to the best of his knowledge, he thought FTX had built up around $5 billion of leverage, when in actuality it was around $13 billion.
Alderoty said FTX’s bankruptcy was “a call to action for responsible economic centers to work to get it right.”
On Wednesday, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse told CNBC that the idea that crypto is not regulated is “overstated.” But, he added, “transparency builds trust.”
“Crypto has never just been sunshine and roses and as an industry, it needs to mature,” Garlinghouse said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”
Ripple is unlikely to refer to the FTX collapse and how it was handled by regulators in its case, Alderoty added.
Some of the confusion surrounding XRP stems from the company’s part ownership of the token. Ripple previously held as much as 60% of the XRP tokens in circulation. It has since reduced that amount to below half, or 49%, according to Alderoty.
Ripple generates a chunk of its sales by releasing its supply of XRP on the open market. For the last three years, it only has only sold XRP to enterprise customers rather than retail traders, Alderoty said.
As a private company, Ripple doesn’t disclose its revenues publicly. This year, the firm processed $10 billion in cross-border transactions with payment providers and other financial institutions using XRP, a token it is closely associated with.
Ripple, the company, was last valued by investors at $15 billion. XRP has a market capitalization of $19 billion, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Ripple’s European expansion drive comes in anticipation of the EU’s MiCA crypto regulations going into effect in the coming years. MiCA seeks to align rules on crypto assets across the 27-member bloc. It was passed by EU lawmakers earlier this year.
The EU has said it may still need to come up with a separate regime for nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, a specific type of digital asset that tracks ownership of art and other assets on the blockchain.
“I think MiCA’s a very good start,” Alderoty said.
The U.K. is also a priority. Ripple on Monday released a set of guidelines outlining how it thinks Britain should regulate crypto.
A bill is making its way through the U.K. Parliament that would give the financial regulator greater oversight of crypto, however this is yet to become law.
Crypto executives are hoping Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who is a fan of crypto and so-called “Web3,” will issue regulatory clarity to make the country a more attractive place for businesses to set up shop.
Morgan Stanley’s Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson joins CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” to discuss when markets will bottom, the outlook for the S&P 500 as well as where inflation is likely to go in 2023.
In unpredictable times like these, flexibility is key, especially when it comes to borrowing money for the things we need most. In a pinch, personal loans can be used to cover any number of things, whether it’s wedding expenses, surprise medical bills, major home repairs or funeral costs.
Debt consolidation can be an especially strategic way to use them, too, since the process allows borrowers to better organize their debts and typically involves a lender sending funds to creditors on your behalf. Consolidating debt through a personal loan also lets borrowers receive a lower interest rate while they pay back the loan, resulting in significant money being saved over the life of the loan.
The report pointed to increasing annual percentage rates, or APRs, coinciding with interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve as the major reason behind the recent spikes.
Below, Select details what you can do if you’re interested in taking out a personal loan for the purpose of debt consolidation.
Subscribe to the Select Newsletter!
Our best selections in your inbox. Shopping recommendations that help upgrade your life, delivered weekly. Sign up here.
Before applying for a personal loan, you’ll want to double-check your credit score. While there are several lenders, such as Upstart and OneMain Financial, that will still consider borrowers with low credit scores or an insufficient credit history, you might end up having to pay a higher interest rate — those with higher credit scores, however, will typically have to pay a lower interest rate.
Debt consolidation, major expenses, emergency costs
Loan amounts
Terms
Credit needed
Origination fee
Flat fee starting at $25 to $onem00 or percentage ranging from 1% to 10% (depends on your state)
Early payoff penalty
Late fee
Up to $30 per late payment or up to 15% (depends on your state)
Click here to see if you prequalify for a personal loan offer. Terms apply.
Next, you’ll want to figure out how much money you actually need to borrow. If you’re consolidating debt, simply add up all your balances to find a total.
While the smallest personal loan amounts — from a lender such as PenFed Credit Union, for instance — tend to begin around $600, minimum amounts closer to the $1,000 mark are often more common. Be careful not to apply for more than you need since you’ll have to pay all the money back eventually.
Debt consolidation, home improvement, medical expenses, auto financing and more
Loan amounts
Terms
Credit needed
Origination fee
Early payoff penalty
Late fee
Then, you’ll want to do your homework by researching and comparing the rates, fees and terms of different personal loan providers. Some lenders will allow you to check your rate without hurting your credit score before you even apply.
Ideally, you’ll want to go with a lender that offers a low interest rate with no fees (or the fewest fees) and a term length that best fits your budget. LightStream and Marcus by Goldman Sachs are each known for offering personal loans with no origination fees, late fees or early payoff fees.
Debt consolidation, home improvement, wedding, moving and relocation or vacation
Loan amounts
Terms
Credit needed
Origination fee
Early payoff penalty
Late fee
When you decide which lender you want to go with, submit your application and wait for approval, which can take anywhere from one to a few days. After that, just wait for the funds to be paid.
With debt consolidation, lenders will typically disburse the money directly to as many as 10 of your chosen creditors — you’ll just need to provide their information and how much money each one should be sent. That way, you’ll just be on the hook for paying back your personal loan lender.
If you’ve noticed the APR on your debts rising as interest rates have kept creeping up, consolidating your debt can be a smart and strategic way to lower it while also organizing the money you owe into one monthly payment.
Before you apply for a debt consolidation loan, make sure your credit score is as healthy as possible, as this is the key to helping you get approved for the lowest interest rates available.
Editorial Note: Opinions, analyses, reviews or recommendations expressed in this article are those of the Select editorial staff’s alone, and have not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any third party.
The European Commission is exploring legal options to confiscate Russian state and private assets as a way to pay for Ukraine’s reconstruction, according to a document seen by POLITICO.
The goal would be “identifying ways to strengthen the tracing, identification, freezing and management of assets as preliminary steps for potential confiscation,” according to the document.
The potential bounty would consist of nearly $300 billion frozen Russian central bank assets, as well as assets and revenues of individuals and entities on the EU’s sanctions list. The idea was floated already in May, and is supported by Kyiv, as well as Poland, the Baltics and Slovakia. EU leaders in October tasked the Commission to look into legal options to seize Russian assets currently frozen under sanctions.
But the conundrum is that there’s currently no legal mechanism to confiscate Russian assets — as pointed out by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen back in May. It would need to be created.
“There may be a path for the EU to validly confiscate frozen assets under international law, but it is likely a narrow, a long and an untested path,” said Jan Dunin-Wasowicz, a lawyer at Hughes Hubbard & Reed.
That isn’t deterring the Commission from looking into it.
With regards to private assets belonging to sanctioned people or entities, Brussels is readying proposals to make sanctions evasion an EU crime, a step which would facilitate their confiscation — but only in case of a criminal conviction. Even then, the EU would need to argue each case in court, likely having to litigate for years.
That’s because a lot of these assets would be considered foreign investments, which enjoy protection against expropriation without compensation and a right to fair and equitable treatment under international treaties that Russia has with a lot of EU countries.
The confiscating authority would also need to draw a clear link between the property owner and the conflict in Ukraine.
“To ensure proportionality, you would need to look at who are the owners, what did they do, et cetera,” said Stephan Schill, professor of international and economic law and governance at the University of Amsterdam.
With regards to frozen foreign reserves of the central bank, the largest money pot, the EU executive writes in the document that “these are generally considered to be covered by immunity,” with a footnote pointing to a U.N. convention on jurisdictional immunities of foreign states and their property, which is however not yet in force.
“From an international law perspective, it’s pretty clear that without Russia’s consent you can’t use Russian central bank assets,” said Schill.
As for assets of Russian-owned state enterprises, the paper notes that these wouldn’t be “in principle” covered by such convention, but grabbing them may raise problems linked to the confiscation of private assets, “in addition to the need to demonstrate a sufficient connection to the Russian state.”
The EU is also mulling an “exit tax” on the assets or proceeds from assets of sanctioned individuals that want to transfer their property out of the EU. This could run into legal problems of its own, as it would target a specific group of individuals — which runs counter to non-discrimination provisions in international law — and they in turn could invoke the human right to property as a defence.
To Schill’s knowledge, there is no recent and valid precedent for any of these options.
“The EU and member states are trying to introduce new criminal law,” he said.
In an economy that has produced the highest inflation rate since the early 1980s, Americans are struggling to keep up with day-to-day expenses.
More consumers are now relying on credit cards to get by, which has helped propel total credit card debt to $930 billion in the third quarter, just shy of the all-time record, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Credit card balances climbed more than 15% from a year earlier, the largest annual jump in more than 20 years.
“With prices more than 8% higher than they were a year ago, it is perhaps unsurprising that balances are increasing,” the Fed researchers wrote in a blog post. “The real test, of course, will be to follow whether these borrowers will be able to continue to make the payments on their credit cards.”
Meanwhile, “high inflation and high interest rates are making it harder than ever to pay down credit card debt,” said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst for CreditCards.com.
Not only are credit card balances back to pre-pandemic levels, but consumers are also carrying balances for long periods.
Among Americans who carry credit card debt from month to month, 60% have been in credit card debt for at least a year, according to CreditCards.com.
High inflation and high interest rates are making it harder than ever to pay down credit card debt.
Ted Rossman
senior industry analyst for CreditCards.com
Since most credit cards have a variable rate, there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark. As the federal funds rate rises, the prime rate does, too, and credit card rates follow suit. Cardholders usually see the impact within a billing cycle or two.
Already, credit card rates are roughly 19% — an all-time high — up from 16% earlier in the year.
Further, those rates will continue to rise since the central bank has indicated even more increases are coming until inflation shows clear signs of a pullback.
The best thing you can do now is pay down high-interest debt with a 0% balance transfer card, Rossman advised. Otherwise, consolidate and pay down credit cards with a lower-interest personal loan, he said.
How much money you need to earn to cover expenses and save for the future comes down to understanding your net worth and your goals, according to Paul Deer, a Boulder, Colorado-based certified financial planner and vice president of advisory service at Personal Capital.
Your net worth is essentially the sum of all of your assets — including cash, retirement accounts, college savings, house, cars, investment properties and valuables such as art and jewelry — minus any liabilities, or long-term debt, such as a mortgage, student loans, revolving credit card balances and any other personal loans.
“First and foremost, is your net worth growing or shrinking over time?” Deer said. If your net worth has been declining, it’s important to work on saving more and spending less.
From there, consider the milestones you want to achieve going forward, Deer said, whether that’s retiring, buying a home or paying for your child’s or grandchild’s education.
“Laying those out can really help provide clarity over what you should be prioritizing today.”
Most people agree that they need to cut costs to build up their savings, and yet reports show consumers haven’t pulled back on food, entertainment or travel.
Omar Marques | SOPA Images | LightRocket via Getty Images
Goldman Sachs paid more than $12 million to a former female partner to settle claims that senior executives created a hostile environment for women, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.
The former partner alleged that top executives, including CEO David Solomon, made vulgar or dismissive remarks about women at the firm, according to Bloomberg, which cited people with knowledge of her complaint. The complaint alleged that women at Goldman were paid less than men and referred to in insulting ways, Bloomberg said, citing the anonymous sources.
Goldman management was “rattled” by the complaint and settled it two years ago to keep word of the claims from being made public, according to the news outlet. The female partner, who now works for a different employer, declined to comment to Bloomberg, which said it withheld her name in part because she never went public with her allegations.
Wall Street continues to deal with accusations that its hard-charging culture results in unfair treatment for female employees. Solomon, who took over from predecessor Lloyd Blankfein in 2018, faces a class-action lawsuit alleging gender discrimination that could go to trial next year; Goldman has denied the claims and attempted to get the lawsuit dismissed. Earlier this year, an ex-Goldman managing director published a memoir detailing episodes of harassment over her 18-year career at the bank.
In public remarks, Solomon has said hiring and promoting more women and minorities were top priorities of his, and the company has publicized its efforts to boost the ranks of women at the bank.
Other male-dominated industries such as tech and law have also dealt with accusations of systemic bias against women. In June, Alphabet subsidiary Google agreed to pay $118 million to settle a lawsuit alleging that the technology company had discriminated against thousands of female employees.
The incidents described by the Goldman partner allegedly happened in 2018 and 2019, and included male executives critiquing female employees’ bodies and assigning menial tasks to women, according to Bloomberg, which cited people with knowledge of the complaint. The partner rank is exceedingly difficult to achieve, and fewer than 1% of the firm’s employees have that title, which comes with enhanced compensation and other perks.
Top Goldman lawyer Kathy Ruemmler said in a statement to CNBC that the firm disputed the Bloomberg article. The New York-based bank declined to comment beyond its statement or answer questions about whether it had paid the $12 million settlement.
“Bloomberg’s reporting contains factual errors, and we dispute this story,” Ruemmler said in the emailed statement. “Anyone who works with David knows his respect for women, and his long record of creating an inclusive and supportive environment for women.”
A Bloomberg spokeswoman had this response to Goldman’s comment: “We stand by our reporting.”
Credit Suisse on Tuesday announced that it would accelerate the restructure of its investment bank by selling a significant portion of its securitized products group (SPG) to Apollo Global Management.
Credit Suisse said the transaction, along with the potential sale of other assets to third-party investors, is expected to reduce SPG assets from around $75 billion to $20 billion.
The bank said the move represented an “important step towards a managed exit from the Securitized Products business, which is expected to significantly de-risk the investment bank and release capital to invest in Credit Suisse’s core business.”
Central to the restructure plan was an offload of risk-weighted assets (RWAs), with around $10 billion of these accounted for by Tuesday’s transactions, the bank said.
“The approximately USD 20 billion of remaining assets, which will generate income to support the exit from the SPG business, will be managed by Apollo under an investment management relationship with an expected term of five years to be entered into at the first closing,” Credit Suisse added in a statement.
“Under the terms of the transactions contemplated with Apollo, Credit Suisse’s CET1 capital ratio is expected to be strengthened by the release of RWAs and the recognition, upon closing, of the premium paid by Apollo, whereby the final amount will depend on discount rates and other transaction-related factors.”
The SPG is a substantial player in the public U.S. securitization market, particularly in the area of residential mortgage-backed securities.
Credit Suisse will hold an extraordinary general meeting next week to seek the green light from shareholders on several key elements of the restructure. These include the planned 1.5 billion Swiss franc ($1.6 billion) investment from the Saudi National Bank in exchange for a 9.9% shareholding, part of a 4 billion Swiss franc capital raise.
This is a developing news story and will be updated shortly.
Retail payments is undergoing a profound and ground-breaking transformation in Switzerland, which is having a significant impact on consumers, merchants and corporates as well as on banks and payment service providers.
From transaction commodity…
Retail payments are payments made by consumers when purchasing products and services from merchants and corporates.
Cash has long been the undisputed number one means of payment in daily use as well as in the form of foreign currencies for travel and payments abroad. Credit cards were mostly used by consumers for travel activities and were not very popular with merchants due to high commission costs.
Making retail payments was a static and inflexible activity carried out at the end of every purchase.
… to customer centricity
Not any longer!
Retail payments are undergoing a profound and ground-breaking transformation, which has a significant impact on consumers, merchants and corporates as well as on banks and payment service providers.
Digitalisation has taken us into a new era in retail payments, with new payment solutions from payment service providers and changes in consumer behaviour. This has resulted in a dynamic retail payments ecosystem.
Consumers are buying more and more products and services online or via a mobile device or contactless payment. In addition to credit and debit cards, there are alternative, non-card payment methods such as PayPal, TWINT and Klarna.
Contactless payments by card became well-established during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially among consumers who had previously paid by cash.
‘Mobile first’ (retail payments that are made with or on a mobile phone, tablet or smartwatch) is also popular and 15.8%* of all purchases and payment transactions are now carried out via mobile devices. This includes both peer-to-peer as well as business to consumer payments.
New methods for retail payments are not just an issue for merchants, but also for corporates such as insurance companies that take money from customers. A perfect fusion in the purchase process is defined as embedded payments or in-app payments, the payment process that can be processed directly in the app of the merchant or corporate.
Consumers today expect flexibility in the ways that they shop and pay for purchases, whether in-store or online, but they want payments to be fast and simple.
Retail payments are becoming customer-centric, and consumers decide where, when and how they want to pay. Accordingly, retailers and corporates are aligning the shopping and payment experience with what consumers expect.
What now?
Merchants or corporates who receive retail payments and payment service providers need to ensure that their payments systems are modernised to meet current and developing demand from consumers for digital payments.
Due to the growth of retail payments, the cost structure for merchants and corporates has become more dominant as before. Hence, for merchants this is the best moment to consider the future Interchange++ cost structure of retail payments.
*Swisspaymentsmonitor.ch
Sergio Cruz, Partner, Consulting
Sergio is the lead Partner of Deloitte’s Business Operations practice in Zurich and has more than 25 year of experience in Consulting. He focuses on large scale front-to-back digitalisation programs in financial services and has worked on several large assignments both in Switzerland and abroad, covering the implementation of regulatory requirements and the definition as well as implementation of target operating models and process optimisations.
David is Deloitte Switzerland’s Payments Lead and a Director in the Business Operations Consulting practice in Zurich, with global experience gained in Consultancy and the Banking industry. He has vast experience and a macro view across retail and banking payments, financial service products, consumer, payments costs, regulations and systems as well as detailed knowledge of key processes in Acquiring, PSP and omni-channel/e-commerce payments. He has advised large clients through impactful payments transformation and digital payments projects in Switzerland and Europe.
Leonel is a Consultant within the Business Operations team at Deloitte Switzerland with a broad educational background ranging from machine learning and statistics to engineering and management complemented by research in a variety of fields. His professional experience includes product management at a leading global technology company and business development in start-ups. He enjoyed experiencing both, the technical and the business sides of a company which gives him two different, yet complementary, perspectives to successfully perform business operation transformations.
Western officials welcomed Russia’s retreat from the Ukrainian city of Kherson, labeled a “big moment” by the White House and “another strategic failure” for Moscow by the U.K.
Ukrainian troops on Friday entered Kherson, the only provincial capital to be taken by Russia in its invasion. The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed in a video that Moscow’s troops had been withdrawn from the Ukrainian city and other territories on the western bank of the Dnipro River, in a huge blow to President Vladimir Putin’s war effort.
“It has broader strategic implications as well,” U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said, “because being able to push the Russians across the river means that the longer-term threat to places like Odesa and the Black Sea coastline are reduced from where they were before.”
“And so this is a big moment. And it’s certainly not the end of the line, but it’s a big moment,” the top White House official told reporters while flying to a Southeast Asian summit in Cambodia, according to a readout published online.
French President Emmanuel Macron called it a “critical step towards the restoration of [Ukraine’s] sovereign rights.”
U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said Russia’s retreat “marks another strategic failure for them. In February, Russia failed to take any of its major objectives except Kherson,” according to a statement.
The Ukrainian military said it was overseeing “stabilization measures” around Kherson to make sure it was safe, the Associated Press reported on Saturday. Kyiv was making speedy but cautious efforts to make the city liveable after months of occupation, as one official described it as “a humanitarian catastrophe,” the news outlet said.
“We will restore all conditions of normal life – as much as possible,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly address. “Our defenders are immediately followed by policemen, sappers, rescuers, energy workers,” he said. “Medicine, communications, social services are returning.’
Roman Holovnya, an adviser to Kherson’s mayor, said humanitarian aid and supplies had begun to arrive, but that many residents still lacked water, medicine, food and electricity, the AP reported.
“The occupiers and collaborators did everything possible so that those people who remained in the city suffered as much as possible over those days, weeks, months of waiting” for Ukraine’s forces to arrive, Holovnya said. “Water supplies are practically nonexistent,” he said.
“I am moved to tears to witness freedom returning to Kherson,” Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas tweeted on Saturday. “Ukrainians hugging their soldiers, and blue and yellow flags raised.”
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Saturday said that the “war goes on” after the Ukrainian army’s success. Ahead of a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Cambodia, Kuleba also thanked Washington for helping Kyiv against Moscow’s invasion.
“It’s only together that we will be able to prevail and to kick Russia out of Ukraine. We are on the way. This is coming, and our victory will be our joint victory — victory of all peace-loving nations across the world,” Kuleba said.
We’re selling 125 shares of Morgan Stanley (MS) at roughly $90.44 each, and buying 45 shares of Constellation Brands (STZ) at roughly $242.25 each. Following Friday’s trades, the portfolio will own 1,475 shares of Morgan Stanley, decreasing its weighting in the portfolio to 4.69% from 5.07%; and 435 shares of Constellation Brands, increasing its weighting to 3.58% from 3.22% The Morgan Stanley trim will right-size our position, which had grown to an over 5% weighting due, in part, to its spectacular run higher for the past month. We are also downgrading the stock to a 2 rating , which is also a reflection of its recent strength and not any change in our long-term view. We still very much believe in Morgan Stanley going forward. This sale will lock in a small gain of about 1% on stock purchased in July 2021. Following our consistent buying of Morgan Stanley in the spring to early summer in the low $80s and the stock’s outperformance over the past month — up nearly 18% versus 10% for the S & P 500 — our position in Morgan Stanley had swelled to the second largest in the portfolio. Although we are rightsizing this position following Thursday and Friday’s strength, we continue to like shares of this investment bank and asset gather for its push into fee base revenues, an eventual resurgence in IPO market, and its steady dividend and buyback programs. We’re taking the Morgan Stanley funds and redeploying them into Constellation Brands on a nearly dollar-for-dollar basis. This was a milestone week for the Corona beer maker as it received enough shareholder votes at a special meeting to execute its plan to remove its dual-class share structure. We wrote all about the event Thursday, explaining why this is great news from a corporate governance standpoint and should lead to a more shareholder-friendly capital allocation policy. We anticipate less expensive and unprofitable acquisitions, greater investment in the growth of the beer portfolio, and more share repurchase. If Constellation allocates its capital in this fashion, we think the stock’s price-to-earnings multiple will expand over time. But with shares down a bit Friday — more so when we mentioned the buy on the “Morning Meeting” — some may wonder if this decline is an indictment on Constellation’s decision to pay a premium to remove the super-voting Class B shares. We do not think that is the case and think STZ is getting swept up in this sector rotation move out of defensives. Given our propensity to buy strength and sell weakness, we are adding to our STZ position. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long MS and STZ. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., November 11, 2022.
Andrew Kelly | Reuters
We’re selling 125 shares of Morgan Stanley (MS) at roughly $90.44 each, and buying 45 shares of Constellation Brands (STZ) at roughly $242.25 each.
Following Friday’s trades, the portfolio will own 1,475 shares of Morgan Stanley, decreasing its weighting in the portfolio to 4.69% from 5.07%; and 435 shares of Constellation Brands, increasing its weighting to 3.58% from 3.22%
The Morgan Stanley trim will right-size our position, which had grown to an over 5% weighting due, in part, to its spectacular run higher for the past month. We are also downgrading the stock to a 2 rating, which is also a reflection of its recent strength and not any change in our long-term view. We still very much believe in Morgan Stanley going forward. This sale will lock in a small gain of about 1% on stock purchased in July 2021.
Following our consistent buying of Morgan Stanley in the spring to early summer in the low $80s and the stock’s outperformance over the past month — up nearly 18% versus 10% for the S&P 500 — our position in Morgan Stanley had swelled to the second largest in the portfolio. Although we are rightsizing this position following Thursday and Friday’s strength, we continue to like shares of this investment bank and asset gather for its push into fee base revenues, an eventual resurgence in IPO market, and its steady dividend and buyback programs.
We’re taking the Morgan Stanley funds and redeploying them into Constellation Brands on a nearly dollar-for-dollar basis. This was a milestone week for the Corona beer maker as it received enough shareholder votes at a special meeting to execute its plan to remove its dual-class share structure. We wrote all about the event Thursday, explaining why this is great news from a corporate governance standpoint and should lead to a more shareholder-friendly capital allocation policy. We anticipate less expensive and unprofitable acquisitions, greater investment in the growth of the beer portfolio, and more share repurchase.
If Constellation allocates its capital in this fashion, we think the stock’s price-to-earnings multiple will expand over time. But with shares down a bit Friday — more so when we mentioned the buy on the “Morning Meeting” — some may wonder if this decline is an indictment on Constellation’s decision to pay a premium to remove the super-voting Class B shares. We do not think that is the case and think STZ is getting swept up in this sector rotation move out of defensives. Given our propensity to buy strength and sell weakness, we are adding to our STZ position.
(Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long MS and STZ. See here for a full list of the stocks.)
As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.
THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY, TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER. NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
SHARM EL-SHEIKH, Egypt — Climate change talks have long been stymied over demands for transfers of billions of dollars — on Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron backed a new push for the conversation to be measured in trillions.
Speaking at the COP27 climate summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, Macron gave his support to elements of a plan outlined by Barbados’ Prime Minister Mia Mottley that seeks to overhaul the way climate finance flows to the countries that most need it.
He called for a “huge shock of concessional financing,” suspension of debt for disaster-struck countries and putting the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on notice.
It was a speech that signaled a shift in tone that developing countries have been long been pushing for.
During the first day of official speeches, leader after leader from wealthy countries highlighted the need to demonstrate “solidarity” with developing countries after a year in which calamitous disasters and a bubbling debt crisis helped reshape the often contentious conversation about climate finance.
“It’s the right thing to do,” said U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
Money is a central focus of this year’s climate talks given the widening gap between what has been pledged and what is needed. It extends from everything from clean energy transitions to hardening countries’ defenses against climate impacts to potential payments for irreparable climate damages.
In September, Barbados issued the world’s first pandemic and natural disaster bond. “The time has come for the introduction of natural disaster-pandemic clauses in our debt instruments,” Mottley said.
“God forbid, if we are hit tomorrow, we unlock 18 percent of GDP over the next two years, because what we do is effectively put a pause on all of our debt,” she said.
Macron called for the rules of the IMF, the World Bank and other major lenders to be changed to makeclauses that halt debt repayments in the event of a disaster far more common.
“What you’re asking of us in terms of debt reimbursement and guarantees, when we are affected by a climate shock, when we are a victim of a climate accident, to some degree, there must be a suspension of those conditions,” said the French president.
Broken promises
While the need for finance to spur the transition to clean energy across the world and guard against the ravages of climate change is already stretching into trillions, the U.N. climate system remains stuck on a broken decade-old promise from rich countries. They pledged to deliver $100 billion a year in climate finance by 2020, but that’s not likely to happen until next year.
As climate impacts have grown more extreme and prolific, appeals for new and more innovative forms of finance have escalated. Ballooning debt in the wake of the pandemic has heightened those calls, with dozens of vulnerable countries threatening a debt strike in the lead-up to COP27.
Mottley has been a champion of elevating the debt crisis facing nations like her own and highlighting how it adds to climate inequities. The plan she outlined in September hinges on debt relief, increased finance, and new mechanisms for post-disaster recovery, like bonds.
The Barbados leader’s call to arms and Macron’s heavyweight backing brought a new reality and scale to the financial discussion.
Mottley has pushed for the IMF’s special drawing rights to be put toward helping climate-vulnerable nations recover and respond to climate impacts. That could be used to help unlock far more money from the private sector — $500 billion from the IMF could result in $5 trillion in investments, she said Monday.
The challenge is getting shareholders in those financial institutions to agree to reforms.
Officials in the U.S., Germany and other major economies have pushed for an overhaul of the way multilateral development banks lend to allow them to extend more climate finance. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has called on the World Bank to draft a roadmap by the end of the year that could then be used to drive reform efforts at other development banks.
On Monday, Macron went further, saying that by next spring, global financial institutions would need to devise ways to “come up with concrete solutions to activate these innovative financing solutions and to help us to provide access to new liquidities.”
He paid tribute to Mottley’s “force of character” and said the two leaders — one who commands an economy 600 times larger than the other — had agreed to form a group of “wise minds” to develop suggestions for the overhaul of the international financial system.
But one Mottley suggestion that Macron swerved was her call for fossil fuel companies to pay a levy on their profits into a fund for disaster-hit countries.
“How do companies make $200 billion in profits in the last three months and not expect to contribute at least 10 cents on every dollar of profit to a loss and damage fund?” she asked.
Aerial view of the seafront Manara district near downtown Beirut.
Bilwander | Getty Images
When Georgio Abou Gebrael first heard about bitcoin in 2016, it sounded like a scam.
But by 2019, as Lebanon plunged into a financial crisis following decades of expensive wars and bad spending decisions, a decentralized and borderless digital currency operating outside the reach of bankers and politicians sounded a lot like salvation.
Gebrael was an architect living in his hometown of Beit Mery, a village eleven miles due east of Beirut. He had lost his job and needed to figure out another way to quickly get ahold of cash. In the spring of 2020, Gebrael says, the banks were closed and locals were barred from withdrawing money from their accounts. Receiving cash via international wire transfer wasn’t a great option either, since these services would take U.S. dollars from the sender and give Lebanese pounds to the recipient at a much lower rate than market value, according to the 27-year-old.
“I would lose around half of the value,” explained Gebrael of the experience. “That’s why I was looking at bitcoin – it was a good way to get money from abroad.”
Gebrael discovered a subreddit dedicated to connecting freelancers with employers willing to pay in bitcoin. The architect’s first job was to film a short commercial for a company that sold tires. Gebrael was paid $5 in bitcoin. Despite the tiny amount, he was hooked.
Georgio Abou Gebrael filmed a short commercial for a company that sells tires, in exchange for $5 worth of bitcoin.
Georgio Abou Gebrael
Today, half of Gebrael’s income is from freelance work, 90% of which is paid in bitcoin. The other half comes from a U.S. dollar-denominated salary paid by his new architecture firm. Beyond being a convenient way to earn a living, bitcoin has also become his bank.
“When I get paid from my architecture job, I withdraw all my money,” continued Gebrael. He then uses that cash to buy small amounts of bitcoin every Saturday. The rest he keeps as spending money for daily needs and home renovations.
Gebrael isn’t alone in seeking alternative ways to earn, save, and spend money in Lebanon – a country whose banking system is fundamentally broken after decades of mismanagement. The local currency has lost more than 95% of its value since Aug. 2019, the minimum wage has effectively plummeted from $450 to $17 a month, pensions are virtually worthless, Lebanon’s triple-digit inflation rate is expected to be second only to Sudan this year, and bank account balances are just numbers on paper.
“Not everyone believes that the banks are bankrupt, but the reality is that they are,” said Ray Hindi, CEO of a Zurich-based management firm dedicated to digital assets.
“The situation hasn’t really changed since 2019. Banks limited withdrawals, and those deposits became IOUs. You could have taken out your money with a 15% haircut, then 35%, and today, we’re at 85%,” continued Hindi, who was born and raised in Lebanon before leaving at the age of 19.
“Still, people look at their bank statements and believe that they’re going to be made whole at some point,” he said.
Despite losing nearly all of their savings and pension, Gebrael’s parents – both of whom are career government employees – are holding out hope that the existing financial system will rightsize at some point. In the meantime, Gebrael is covering the difference.
Others have lost faith in the monetary system altogether. Enter cryptocurrency.
CNBC spoke with multiple locals, many of whom consider cryptocurrencies a lifeline for survival. Some are mining for digital tokens as their sole source of income while they hunt for a job. Others arrange clandestine meetings via Telegram to swap the stablecoin tether for U.S. dollars in order to buy groceries. Although the form that crypto adoption takes varies depending upon the person and the circumstances, nearly all of these locals craved a connection to money that actually makes sense.
“Bitcoin has really given us hope,” Gebrael said. “I was born in my village, I’ve lived here my whole life, and bitcoin has helped me to stay here.”
Bettmann | Lebanon League of Progress | Getty Images
Between the end of the second World War and the start of Lebanon’s civil war in 1975, Beirut was in its golden age, earning it the title of “the Paris of the Middle East.” The world’s elite flocked to the Lebanese capital, which boasted a sizable Francophone population, Mediterranean seaside cafes, and a banking sector known for its resilience and emphasis on secrecy.
Even after the brutal 15-year civil war ended in 1990, Lebanon competed with offshore banking jurisdictions such as Switzerland and the Cayman Islands as an ideal destination for the rich to park their cash. Lebanese banks offered both a certain degree of anonymity and interest rates ranging from highs of 15% to 31% on U.S. dollars, according to one estimate shared by Dan Azzi, an economist and former CEO of the Lebanese subsidiary of Standard Chartered Bank. In return, Lebanon drew in the foreign currencies that it so desperately needed to re-stock its coffers after the civil war.
There were strings attached. Some banks, for example, had a lock-up window of three years and steep minimum balance requirements. But for a while, the system worked pretty well for everyone involved. The banks got an influx of cash, depositors saw their balances swiftly grow, and the government went on an undisciplined spending spree with the money it borrowed from the banks. The mirage of easy money was further reinforced by the government putting some of that borrowed cash towardmaintaining a fixed exchange rate for deposit inflows at an overvalued peg.
Tourism and international aid, plus foreign direct investment from oil-rich Gulf states, also went a long way toward shoring up the balance sheet of the central bank, Banque du Liban. The country’s brain drain and the subsequent boom in remittance payments sent home by the Lebanese diaspora injected dollars as well.
World Bank data shows remittances as a percentage of gross domestic product peaked at more than 26% in 2004, though it stayed high through the 2008 global financial crisis. Those payments, however, began to slow through the 2010s amid unrest throughout the region, and the growing prominence of Hezbollah – an Iranian-backed, Shiite political party and militant group – in Lebanon alienated some of the country’s biggest donors.
To try to stave off a total economic meltdown, in 2016, central bank chief Riad Salameh, an ex-Merrill Lynch banker who had been on the job since the early 1990s, decided to dial up banking incentives. People willing to deposit U.S. dollarsearned astronomical interest on their money, which proved especially compelling at a time when returns elsewhere in the world were relatively underwhelming. El Chamaa tells CNBC that those who deposited U.S. dollars and then converted those dollars to Lebanese lira earned the highest interest.
The era of easy money fell off a cliff in October 2019, when the government proposed a flurry of taxation on everything from gas, to tobacco, to WhatsApp calls. People took to the streets in what became known as the October 17 Revolution.
As the masses revolted, the government defaulted on its sovereign debt for the first time ever in early 2020, just as the Covid pandemic took hold around the world. Making a terrible situation worse, in Aug. 2020, an explosion of a stockpile of ammonium nitrate stored at the port in Beirut – blamed on gross government negligence – killed more than 200 people and cost the city billions of dollars in damages.
Anti-government protesters take part in a demonstration against the political elites and the government, in Beirut, Lebanon, on August 8, 2020 after the massive explosion at the Port of Beirut.
STR | NurPhoto via Getty Images
The banks, spooked by all the chaos, first limited withdrawals and then shut their doors entirely as much of the world descended into lockdown. Hyperinflation took root. The local currency, which had a peg of 1,500 Lebanese pounds to $1 for 25 years, began to rapidly depreciate. The street rate is now around 40,000 pounds to $1.
“You need a backpack to go for lunch with a group of people,” explained Hindi.
After re-opening, the banks refused to keep up with this extreme depreciation, and offered much lower exchange rates for U.S. dollars than they were worth on the open market. So money in the bank was suddenly worth much less.
Azzi dubbed this new form of money “lollars,” referring to U.S. dollars deposited into the Lebanese banking system before 2019. Today, withdrawals of lollars are capped, and each lollar is paid out at a rate worth about 15% of its actual value, according to estimates from multiple locals and experts living across Lebanon.
Meanwhile, banks still offer the full market-rate exchange rate for U.S. dollars deposited after 2019. These are now known colloquially as “fresh dollars.”
For many Lebanese, this was the point at which money just stopped making sense.
“I send actual dollars from my dollar account in Switzerland to my dad’s Lebanese account,” Hindi told CNBC. “They count as fresh dollars because it came from abroad, but of course, my dad is running counterparty risk with the bank.”
Mohamad El Chamaa, a 27-year-old Beirut-based journalist at L’Orient Today tells CNBC that when the bank began instituting these restrictions, he had $3,000 in his savings account from odd jobs he did in grad school.
“One of my life’s regrets was not withdrawing my money in full before the crisis hit,” said El Chamaa, who is studying for a Masters in Urban Planning at the American University of Beirut. “I could see the writing on the wall, because the bank started charging me a small percentage for every dollar withdrawal I made a month before the crisis hit, which I thought was kind of odd.”
El Chamaa says that he has since grown accustomed to withdrawing money from his bank account at a “bad rate” of 10% to 15% of its original worth, but “there is no way in hell” he would ever deposit cash in a Lebanese bank ever again. Instead, he keeps what remains of his life savings in cash and just uses his bank account to pay for his iCloud service and music streaming account.
Currency exchange dealer in Lebanon shows a U.S. dollar and Lebanese lira as the value of the country’s currency against the USD continues to plunge.
Houssam Shbaro | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Access to his account is spotty. The banks closed again in September, and there are daily nationwide power cuts, which translate to limited ATM access.
“It gets worse over time, but the fundamentals have been bad since 2019. They haven’t changed that much,” said Hindi.
The World Bank says Lebanon’s economic and financial crisis is among the worst it’s seen anywhere on the planet since the 1850s. The United Nations estimates that 78% of the Lebanese population has now fallen below the poverty line.
Goldman Sachs analysts estimate losses at the local banks are around $65 billion to $70 billion – a figure that is four times the country’s entire GDP. Fitch projects inflation rising to 178% this year – worse than in both Venezuela and Zimbabwe – and there are conflicting messages from the government’s top brass as to whether the country is officially bankrupt.
The International Monetary Fund is in talks with Lebanon to put a big bandaid over the whole mess. The global lender is considering extending a $3 billion lifeline – with a lot of conditions attached. Meanwhile, there is a power vacuum as Parliament keeps trying and failing to elect a president.
Demonstrator looks on as Lebanese policemen stand guard outside the Central Bank in Dec. 2018.
A little over two years ago, Ahmad Abu Daher and his friend began mining ether with three machines running on hydroelectric power in Zaarouriyeh, a town 30 miles south of Beirut in the Chouf Mountains.
At the time, ethereum — the blockchain underpinning the ether token — operated on a proof-of-work model, in which miners around the world would run high-powered computers that crunched math equations in order to validate transactions and simultaneously create new tokens. This is how the bitcoin network is still secured today.
The process requires expensive equipment, some technical know-how, and a lot of electricity. Because miners at scale compete in a low-margin industry, where their only variable cost is energy, they are driven to migrate to the world’s cheapest sources of power.
Abu Daher taps into a hydropower project which harnesses electricity from the 90-mile Litani River that cuts across southern Lebanon. He says he is getting 20 hours a day of electricity at old pre-inflationary rates.
“So basically, we are paying very cheap electricity, and we are getting fresh dollars through mining,” continued Abu Daher.
Ahmad Abu Daher and his friend began mining ether with three machines running on hydroelectric power in Zaarouriyeh, a town 30 miles south of Beirut in the Chouf Mountains. Abu Daher has since scaled his business to thousands of machines spread across Lebanon.
Ahmad Abu Daher
When 22-year-old Abu Daher saw that his mining venture was profitable, he and his friend expanded the operation.
They built their own farm with rigs acquired at fire sale prices from miners in China and began re-selling and repairing mining equipment for others. They also started to host rigs for people living across Lebanon, who needed stable money but lacked the technical expertise, as well as the access to cheap and steady electricity — a highly coveted commodity in a country with crippling electricity blackouts. Abu Daher also has customers outside of Lebanon, in Syria, Turkey, France, and the United Kingdom.
It has been 26 months since they first set up shop, and business is thriving, according to Abu Daher. He says that he had profits of $20,000 in September — half from mining, half from selling machines and trading in crypto.
The government, facing electrical shortages, is trying to crack down.
In Jan., police raided a small crypto mining farm in the hydro-powered town of Jezzine, seizing and dismantling mining rigs in the process. Soon after, the Litani River Authority, which oversees the country’s hydroelectric sites, reportedly said that “energy intensive cryptomining” was “straining its resources and draining electricity.”
AntMiner L3++ miners running at one of Ahmad Abu Daher’s crypto farms in Mghayriyeh in the Chouf Mountains.
Ahmad Abu Daher
“We had some meetings with the police, and we don’t have any problems with them, because we are taking legal electricity, and we are not affecting the infrastructure,” he said.
Whereas Abu Daher says that he has set up a meter that officially tracks how much energy his machines have consumed, other miners have allegedly hitched their rigs to the grid illegally and are not paying for power.
“Basically, a lot of other persons are having some issues, because they are not paying for electricity, and they are affecting the infrastructure,” he said.
Rawad El Hajj, a 27-year-old with a marketing degree, found out about Abu Daher’s mining operation three years ago through his brother.
“We started because there is not enough work in Lebanon,” El Hajj said of his motivation to jump into mining.
El Hajj, who lives south of the capital in a city called Barja, began small, purchasing two miners to start.
“Then every month, we started to go bigger and bigger,” El Hajj told CNBC.
Rawad El Hajj, a 27-year-old with a marketing degree, tells CNBC that his 11 machines mine for litecoin and dogecoin.
Rawad El Hajj
Because of the distance to Abu Daher’s farms, El Hajj pays to outsource the work of hosting and maintaining the rigs. He tells CNBC that his 11 machines mine for litecoin and dogecoin, which collectively bring in the equivalent of about .02 bitcoin a month, or $426.
It’s a similar story for Salah Al Zaatare, an architect living 20 minutes south of El Hajj in the coastal city of Sidon. Al Zaatare tells CNBC that he began mining dogecoin and litecoin in March of this year to augment his income. He now has 10 machines that he keeps with Abu Daher. Al Zaatare’s machines are newer models so he pulls in more than El Hajj — about $8,500 a month.
Al Zaatare pulled all of his money out of the bank before the crisis hit in 2019, and he held onto that cash until deciding to invest his life savings into mining equipment last year.
“I got into it, because I think it will become a good investment for the future,” Al Zaatare told CNBC.
Official government data shows that just 3% of those earning a living in Lebanon are paid in a foreign currency such as the U.S. dollar, so mining offers a rare opportunity to get ahold of fresh dollars.
“If you can get the machine, and you get the power, you get the money,” said Nicholas Shafer, a University of Oxford academic studying Lebanon’s crypto mining industry.
Abu Daher, who graduated from the American University of Beirut six months ago, has also been experimenting with other ways to get more use out of crypto mining. As part of his year-end project at university, he designed a system to harness the heat from the miners as a means to keep homes and hospitals warm during the winter months.
But mining crypto tokens to earn a living is not for everybody.
Gebrael considered it, but ultimately, the cost of buying gear, plus paying for electricity, cooling, and maintenance seemed like a roundabout way of getting what he wanted.
“It’s easier to just buy bitcoin,” he said.
AntMiner L3++ miners running at one of Ahmad Abu Daher’s crypto farms in his village of Zaarouriyeh.
When Gebrael needs cash to pay for groceries and other basics, he first uses a service called FixedFloat to swap some of the bitcoin he has earned through his freelance work for tether (also known as USDT), a stablecoin that is pegged to the U.S. dollar. After that, he goes to one of two Telegram groups to arrange a trade of tether for U.S. dollars. While tether does not offer the same potential for appreciation as other cryptocurrencies, it represents something more important: a currency that Lebanese still trust.
Each week, Gebrael finds someone willing to make the swap, and they set up an in-person meeting. Because he is often making the trade with a stranger, Gebrael typically chooses public spaces, like a coffee shop, or the ground floor of a residential building.
“One time I was scared because it was at night and the person I contacted asked me to go up to their apartment,” Gebrael said of one hand-off. “I asked them to come meet me on the street, and it all went fine. I try to stay as safe as possible.”
These kinds of backchannels have become a critical lifeline to fresh dollars, which are vital in Lebanon’s mostly-cash economy.
“It’s easy here to get cash from crypto,” said El Hajj of his experience. “There’s a lot of guys that exchange USDT for cash.”
Exchanges over the Telegram group that Gebrael uses range from $30 to trades in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.
In addition to Telegram, a network of over-the-counter traders specialize in swapping several different types of fiat currencies for cryptocurrencies. The model bears resemblance to the centuries-old hawala system – which facilitates cross-border transactions via a sophisticated network of money exchangers and personal contacts.
Lebanese anti-government protesters seal an ATM with tape in Beirut during a rally against the banking system on November 11, 2019.
Patrick Baz | AFP | Getty Images
Abu Daher offers exchange services in tandem with his mining business, and charges a 1% commission fee to both of the parties participating in the trade.
“We started by selling and buying USDT because the amount of demand on USDT is very high,” said Abu Daher, who added that he was “shocked” at the flood of inbounds for his service.
Some people are tinkering with covering their daily expenses in tether directly to avoid either paying commissions to crypto exchangers — or having to go through the motions of setting up an informal trade with a stranger.
A man stands outside a currency exchange booth in the Lebanese capital on October 1, 2019.
Joseph Eid | AFP | Getty Images
Even though accepting crypto as a payment method is prohibited under Lebanese law,businesses are actively advertising that they accept crypto payments on Instagram and other social media platforms.
“The use of USDT is widespread. There’s a lot of coffee shops, restaurants, and electronics stores that accept USDT as a payment, so that’s convenient if I need to spend not in fiat, but from my bitcoin savings,” explained Gebrael. “The government has much bigger problems right now than to worry about some stores accepting cryptocurrency.”
Local businesses in the Chouf region have also begun to accept crypto payments amid the rise of mining farms, according to El Chamaa. In Sidon, the 26-year-old owner of a restaurant called Jawad Snack says that around 30% of his transactions are in crypto, according to written comments translated by Abu Daher and shared with CNBC via WhatsApp.
“It’s better for me to accept tether or U.S. dollars due to the huge inflation in the Lebanese lira,” continued the owner, who added that once he is paid in tether, he cashes it out to fiat through a trader in the black market. He says he typically uses Abu Daher for this, since he lives the closest.
Abu Daher uses tether to pay for imported machines, but he still has to cover a lot of his expenses in the Lebanese lira (electricity, internet fees, and rent), as well as in U.S. dollars (cooling systems and security systems).
Some hotels and tourism agencies accept tether, as does at least one auto mechanic living in Sidon.
Detailed administrative and political vector map of Lebanon.
Getty Images
Indeed, new research from blockchain data firm Chainalysis shows that Lebanon’s crypto transaction volume is up about 120%, year-over-year, and it ranks second only to Turkey in terms of the volume of cryptocurrency received among countries in the Middle East and North Africa. (Globally, it’s in 56th place in peer-to-peer trading volume.)
Access to a smartphone is critical, too. Although officialstatistics show that internet penetration in Lebanon is around 80%, the country’s debilitating power cuts disrupt internet service. But the country’s telecom networks operate their own power generators to keep running continuously.
“We are putting our money in our phones. That is the easiest way,” said Abu Daher.
A Lebanese woman stands next to her empty refrigerator in her apartment in the port city of Tripoli, north of Beirut, on June 17, 2020.
In 2017, Marcel Younes was working as a marketing manager with Pfizer in Beirut when he tried to get rich by getting into bitcoin.
A pharmacist by training, Younes soon strayed from tracking price charts and instead became engrossed by the economic theory underpinning digital currencies like bitcoin.
As he continued his studies, he noticed a lot of similarities between Lebanon, Venezuela, and Argentina.
“I panicked and withdrew all my money from the bank,” said Younes, who added that he emptied his account in mid-2019 — just a couple months before banks locked people out of their accounts. “I was paranoid thanks to bitcoin.”
Younes tells CNBC that he initially moved 15% of his money into bitcoin, and he kept the remaining balance in cash. Today, 70% of his cash is in bitcoin.
“I was actually telling everyone to do the same in my family, like, please try to withdraw some money, and don’t keep it in the bank,” said Younes.
“But no one really believes a pharmacist — a person who is not related to our banking system,” said Younes.
Graffiti reading “VIRUS” and “THIEF” covers the facade of a fortified local branch of the Bank of Beirut in the Lebanese capital on May 18, 2020.
Patrick Baz | AFP | Getty Images
Younes, who was born in Poland but moved to Lebanon with his family in 1998, tells CNBC that most of his family works in the banking system in Lebanon.
“They always believe that everything is fine with the banking system, so you get this confidence that everything is alright,” he said.
Within months, his family was wiped out.
His father-in-law, who is 75 years old and retired years ago, had safeguarded his entire net worth in the bank.
“My family, like every single family member in Lebanon, got really hurt by the whole devaluation and currency crisis,” said Younes.
A by-product of the spiraling currency has been the erosion of earning power.
“My aunt, for example, she’s a teacher. Right now, her salary is $50 per month. My father, who’s a doctor with over 30 years of experience, his salary is around $500 a month,” explained Younes. “It happened gradually, because every few months, we have a small devaluation, and it all culminated in a 95% devaluation of the Lebanese lira.”
Younes has since founded Bitcoin du Liban (a play on the name of Lebanon’s central bank, Banque du Liban), a group with a mission to help close the knowledge gap on bitcoin in Lebanon through in-person meetings, online tutorials, and chats via the organization’s Telegram group.
A man holding a smartphone shows a screen grab taken from a video of an armed depositor gesturing at employees of a local bank in Beirut after he stormed the branch and held employees and customers as hostages. The man, who entered the bank carrying a machine gun and gasoline, demanded to be handed over part of his deposited money, which amounts to $209,000.
Marwan Naamani | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
Multiple sources tell CNBC that people across the country are afraid to put their money in the banks or store it in cash at home because of the risk of theft. Alex Gladstein, chief strategy officer for the Human Rights Foundation, says these kinds of situations are one clear value proposition for bitcoin.
In bitcoin, one of the mantras is — “not your keys, not your coins” — meaning that rightful ownership of tokens comes through the custody of the passwords that enable the crypto to be moved out of the wallet.
“If you had your money in the bank in Lebanon, it’s all gone. Who knows how much of it you will ever see again. Meanwhile, bitcoin rises and falls in the global market, but if you self-custody your bitcoin, you always have it as an asset, and you can use it as you see fit and send it anywhere in the world,” explained Gladstein. “It has superpowers compared to fiat currency.”
There are a lot of ways to store crypto coins. Online exchanges like Coinbase, Binance, and PayPal will custody tokens for users. Abu Daher, for example, keeps 100% of his cash in online crypto wallets on Binance and KuCoin, as does Al Zaatare, who says that he saves his bitcoin on Binance.
More tech-savvy users sometimes cut out the middleman and hold their crypto cash on personally owned hardware wallets. Gebrael, for example, prefers the autonomy and security that he derives from self-custody of his bitcoin. He tells CNBC that he keeps all of his bitcoin in cold storage on a thumb drive-sized device called a Trezor hardware wallet.
A person holds a cryptocurrency hardware wallet.
Geoffroy Van Der Hasselt | AFP | Getty Images
Beyond the added security of holding his own keys and disconnecting his wallet from the internet, Gebrael says the appeal of cold storage has a lot to do with the fact that he doesn’t have to connect his personal identity to his bitcoin. He added that the anonymity offered by self-custody helps protect him from being caught in the crosshairs of government-issued sanctions. Gebrael cited the example of the Canadian government blacklisting all crypto exchange wallets connected to the truckers participating in the ‘Freedom Convoy’ protests.
Gebrael says he also doesn’t like the user experience of centralized digital asset exchanges like Binance and Coinbase “with all their flashy charts.”
“It’s like one huge casino, and they want you to gamble your money,” said Gebrael.
Lebanon has six bitcoin ATMs — one in Aamchit and five in Beirut, according to metrics offered by coinatmradar.com. But those who spoke with CNBC for this story say that the optimal on-ramps to accessing bitcoin are either earning it (through mining or paid work), or buying it with tether.
A worker uses a mobile phone torchlight to illuminate his cutting space at the fish market, where portable emergency lighting runs due to a power cut, in Beirut, Lebanon, on Wednesday, Sept. 8, 2021.
Francesca Volpi | Bloomberg | Getty Images
When asked how reliable it is to safeguard wealth in an inherently volatile asset like bitcoin — which is down more than 70% in the last year — Younes says that “it’s a matter of perception.”
“If you go back to two, three years ago, it was $3,500,” said Younes, who added that he isn’t really concerned about the price of bitcoin.
When Younes first bought bitcoin, it was trading at about $20,000, so as of today, he tells CNBC that he hasn’t made any money. But investing his cash into the world’s largest cryptocurrency also has to do with the fact that he wants to bet on a new monetary system.
“Bitcoin offers a system that is uncorruptible; a system that is basically permissionless and censorship-resistant,” he said. “No one can really devalue bitcoin due to its monetary policy, which is 21 million bitcoin.”
Ultimately, money is a human belief system. For some in Lebanon, it has been a lifeline, for others, it’s a passing fad.
El Chamaa hasn’t turned to crypto, and he stands by the decision, even after spending time reporting on the ground at Abu Daher’s crypto mines.
“If you look at what bitcoin and ethereum are worth today, I mean, it’s worth a fraction of what it was a year ago. So I’m kind of glad I didn’t get into it,” said El Chamaa.
“Warren Buffett is basically saying that it doesn’t have an intrinsic value and just passing it on to the next person and helping to make a profit off of that doesn’t make any sense. So I’m a bit skeptical,” he said.
SINGAPORE — Banks have to prioritize consumer protection as they embark on digital asset experiments, said Umar Farooq, chief executive officer of JPMorgan’s blockchain unit Onyx.
Many blockchain projects and other crypto protocols have the potential to make financial services more efficient, accessible and affordable. But without proper precautions, they could also expose customers to cybersecurity risks.
In recent months, many crypto investors have been struck by hacks and scams. For example, crypto exchange Binance was hit by a $570 million hack in October and Deribit lost $28 million in a hot wallet hack this month.
“What a bank needs to do from a regulatory point of view and customer’s point of view is that we need to protect our customers. We cannot lose their money,” Farooq said during a panel at the Singapore Fintech Festival 2022 on Wedneday.
“I do think you need some sort of identity solution or know-your-customer solution which verifies who the human being that is interacting is and what they are allowed to do. Because without that, in the longer term, it just doesn’t work,” he added.
Read more about tech and crypto from CNBC Pro
Farooq explained that JPMorgan is using a solution called verifiable credentials that live in the customer’s blockchain wallet. When the customer goes to a protocol to trade, the protocol validates the credential.
“I can’t foresee people being able to send money across borders if no one checks and no one knows who’s sending money to who, because sooner or later they will be in a money laundering incident,” said Farooq.
“So those are the very fundamental things that need to be addressed before you even get to systematic issues. Education, protection and identity need to be in place,” he added.
Farooq and Onyx tackled some of these security and verification issues as part of Project Guardian, an industry pilot the Monetary Authority of Singapore announced in May.
“It was very, very hard,” Farooq said.
In the pilot, DBS Bank, JPMorgan and SBI Digital Asset Holdings conducted transactions in tokenized foreign exchange and government bonds. Tokenizing a financial asset involves converting its ownership rights into digital tokens. It allows financial transactions such as borrowing and lending to be performed autonomously on a blockchain without the need for intermediaries.
“It was the first time we had tokenized deposits. I actually think it’s the first time any bank in the world has tokenized wallets on a public blockchain,” Farooq told CNBC in an interview.
“Using public blockchain, we had to spend a lot of time thinking through identity. We did lots of audits of smart contracts because again — they were publicly visible. And finally, it was using a protocol to actually make it all happen. It’s a lot of managing the risks. All of these were firsts for us,” he said.
LIVERPOOL, England — On the long picket line outside the gates of Liverpool’s Peel Port, rain-soaked dock workers warm themselves with cups of tea as they listen to 1980s pop.
Dozens of buses, cars and trucks honk in solidarity as they pass.
Dockers’ strikes are not new to Liverpool, nor is depravation. But this latest walk-out at Britain’s fourth-largest port is part of something much bigger, a great wave of public and private sector strikes taking place across the U.K. Railways, postal services, law courts and garbage collections are among the many public services grinding to a halt.
The immediate cause of the discontent, as elsewhere, is the rising cost of living. Inflation in the United Kingdom breached the 10 percent mark this year, with wages failing to keep pace.
But the U.K.’s economic woes long predate the current crisis. For more than a decade, Britain has been beset by weak economic growth, anaemic productivity, and stagnant private and public sector investment. Since 2016, its political leadership has been in a state of Brexit-induced flux.
Half a century after U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger looked at the U.K.’s 1970s economic malaise and declared that “Britain is a tragedy,” the United Kingdom is heading to be the sick man of Europe once again.
The immediate cause of Liverpool dockers’ discontent that brought them to strike is the rising cost of living. | Christopher Furlong/Getty Images
Here in Liverpool, the “scars run very deep,” said Paul Turking, a dock worker in his late 30s. British voters, he added, have “been misled” by politicians’ promises to “level up” the country by investing heavily in regional economies. Conservatives “will promise you the world and then pull the carpet out from under your feet,” he complained.
“There’s no middle class no more,” said John Delij, a Peel Port veteran of 15 years. He sees the cost-of-living crisis and economic stagnation whittling away the middle rung of the economic ladder.
“How many billionaires do we have?” Delij asked, wondering how Britain could be the sixth-largest economy in the world with a record number of billionaires when food bank use is 35 percent above its pre-pandemic level. “The workers put money back into the economy,” he said.
What would they do if they were in charge? “Invest in affordable housing,” said Turking. “Housing and jobs.”
Falling behind
The British economy has been struck by particular turbulence over recent weeks. The cost of government borrowing soared in the wake of former PM Liz Truss’ disastrous mini-budget on September 23, with the U.K.’s central bank forced to step in and steady the bond markets.
But while the swift installation of Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor, as prime minister seems to have restored a modicum of calm, the economic backdrop remains bleak. Spending and welfare cuts are coming. Taxes are certain to rise. And the underlying problems cut deep.
U.K. productivity growth since the financial crisis has trailed that of comparator nations such as the U.S., France and Germany. As such, people’s median incomes also lag behind neighboring countries over the same period. Only Russia is forecast to have worse economic growth among the G20 nations in 2023.
In 1976, the U.K. — facing stagflation, a global energy crisis, a current account deficit and labor unrest — had to be bailed out by the International Monetary Fund. It feels far-fetched, but today some are warning it could happen again.
The U.K. is spluttering its way through an illness brought about in part through a series of self-inflicted wounds that have undermined the basic pillars of any economy: confidence and stability.
The political and economic malaise is such that it has prompted unwanted comparisons with countries whose misfortunes Britain once watched amusedly from afar.
“The existential risk to the U.K. … is not that we’re suddenly going to go off an economic cliff, or that the country’s going to descend into civil war or whatever,” said Jonathan Portes, professor of economics at King’s College London. “It’s that we will become like Italy.”
Portes, of course, does not mean a country blessed with good weather and fine food — but an economy hobbled by persistently low growth, caught in a dysfunctional political loop that lurches between “corrupt and incompetent right-wing populists” and “well-intentioned technocrats who can’t actually seem to turn the ship around.”
“That’s not the future that we want in the U.K,” he said.
Reviving the U.K.’s flatlining economy will not happen overnight. As Italy’s experience demonstrates, it’s one thing to diagnose an illness — another to cure it.
Experts speak of an unbalanced model heavily reliant upon Britain’s services sector and beset with low productivity, a result of years of underinvestment and a flexible labor market which delivers low unemployment but often insecure and low-paid work.
“We’re not investing in skills; businesses aren’t investing,” said Xiaowei Xu, senior research economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies. “It’s not that surprising that we’re not getting productivity growth.”
But any attempt to address the country’s ailments will require its economic stewards to understand their underlying causes — and those stretch back at least to the first truly global crisis of the 21st century.
Crash and burn
The 2008 financial crisis hammered economies around the world, and the U.K. was no exception. Its economy shrunk by more than 6 percent between the first quarter of 2008 and the second quarter of 2009. Five years passed before it returned to its pre-recession size.
For Britain, the crisis in fact began in September 2007, a year before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, when wobbles in the U.S. subprime mortgage market sparked a run on the British bank Northern Rock.
The U.K. discovered it was particularly vulnerable to such a shock. Over the second half of the 20th century, its manufacturing base had largely eroded as its services sector expanded, with financial and professional services and real estate among the key drivers. As the Bank of England put it: “The interconnectedness of global finance meant that the U.K. financial system had become dangerously exposed to the fall-out from the U.S. sub-prime mortgage market.”
The crisis was a “big shock to the U.K.’s broad economic model,” said John Springford, from the Centre for European Reform. Productivity took an immediate hit as exports of financial services plunged. It never fully recovered.
“Productivity before the crash was basically, ‘Can we create lots and lots of debt and generate lots and lots of income on the back of this? Can we invent collateralized debt obligations and trade them in vast volumes?’” said James Meadway, director of the Progressive Economy Forum and a former adviser to Labour’s left-wing former shadow chancellor, John McDonnell.
A post-crash clampdown on City practises had an obvious impact.
“This is a major part of the British economy, so if it’s suddenly not performing the way it used to — for good reasons — things overall are going to look a bit shaky,” Meadway added.
The shock did not contain itself to the economy. In a pattern that would be repeated, and accentuated, in the coming years, it sent shuddering waves through the country’s political system, too.
The 2010 election was fought on how to best repair Britain’s broken economy. In 2009, the U.K. had the second-highest budget deficit in the G7, trailing only the U.S., according to the U.K. government’s own fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
The Conservative manifesto declared “our economy is overwhelmed by debt,” and promised to close the U.K.’s mounting budget deficit in five years with sharp public sector cuts. The incumbent Labour government responded by pledging to halve the deficit by 2014 with “deeper and tougher” cuts in public spending than the significant reductions overseen by former Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s.
The election returned a hung parliament, with the Conservatives entering into a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. The age of austerity was ushered in.
Austerity nation
Defenders of then-Chancellor George Osborne’s austerity program insist it saved Britain from the sort of market-led calamity witnessed this fall, and put the U.K. economy in a condition to weather subsequent global crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the fallout from the war in Ukraine.
“That hard work made policies like furlough and the energy price cap possible,” said Rupert Harrison, one of Osborne’s closest Treasury advisers.
Pointing to the brutal market response to Truss’ freewheeling economic plans, Harrison praised the “wisdom” of the coalition in prioritizing tackling the U.K.’s debt-GDP ratio. “You never know when you will be vulnerable to a loss of credibility,” he noted.
But Osborne’s detractors argue austerity — which saw deep cuts to community services such as libraries and adult social care; courts and prisons services; road maintenance; the police and so much more — also stripped away much of the U.K.’s social fabric, causing lasting and profound economic damage. A recent study claimed austerity was responsible for hundreds of thousands of excess deaths.
Under Osborne’s plan, three-quarters of the fiscal consolidation was to be delivered by spending cuts. With the exception of the National Health Service, schools and aid spending, all government budgets were slashed; public sector pay was frozen; taxes (mainly VAT) rose.
But while the government came close to delivering its fiscal tightening target for 2014-15, “the persistent underperformance of productivity and real GDP over that period meant the deficit remained higher than initially expected,” the OBR said. By his own measure, Osborne had failed, and was forced to push back his deficit-elimination target further. Austerity would have to continue into the second half of the 2010s.
Many economists contend that the fiscal belt-tightening sucked demand out of the economy and worsened Britain’s productivity crisis by stifling investment. “That certainly did hit U.K. growth and did some permanent damage,” said King’s College London’s Portes.
“If that investment isn’t there, other people start to find it less attractive to open businesses,” former Labour aide Meadway added. “If your railways aren’t actually very good … it does add up to a problem for businesses.”
A 2015 study found U.K. productivity, as measured by GDP per hour worked, was now lower than in the rest of the G7 by a whopping 18 percentage points.
“Frankly, nobody knows the whole answer,” Osborne said of Britain’s productivity conundrum in May 2015. “But what I do know is that I’d much rather have the productivity challenge than the challenge of mass unemployment.”
‘Jobs miracle’
Rising employment was indeed a signature achievement of the coalition years. Unemployment dropped below 6 percent across the U.K. by the end of the parliament in 2015, with just Germany and Austria achieving a lower rate of joblessness among the then-28 EU states. Real-term wages, however, took nearly a decade to recover to pre-crisis levels.
Economists like Meadway contend that the rise in employment came with a price, courtesy of Britain’s famously flexible labor market. He points to a Sports Direct warehouse in the East Midlands, where a 2015 Guardian investigation revealed the predominantly immigrant workforce was paid illegally low wages, while the working conditions were such that the facility was nicknamed “the gulag.”
The warehouse, it emerged, was built on a former coal mine, and for Meadway the symbolism neatly charts the U.K.’s move away from traditional heavy industry toward more precarious service sector employment. “It’s not a secure job anymore,” he said. “Once you have a very flexible labor market, the pressure on employers to pay more and the capacity for workers to bargain for more is very much reduced.”
Throughout the period, the Bank of England — the U.K.’s central bank — kept interest rates low and pursued a policy of quantitative easing. “That tends to distort what happens in the economy,” argued Meadway. QE, he said, is a “good [way of] getting money into the hands of people who already have quite a lot” and “doesn’t do much for people who depend on wage income.”
Meanwhile — whether necessary or not — the U.K.’s austerity policies undoubtedly worsened a decades-long trend of underinvestment in skills and research and development (Britain lags only Italy in the G7 on R&D spending). At British schools, there was a 9 percent real terms fall in per-pupil spending between 2009 and 2019, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ Xu. “As countries get richer, usually you start spending more on education,” Xu noted.
Two senior ministers in the coalition government — David Gauke, who served in the Treasury throughout Osborne’s tenure, and ex-Lib Dem Business Secretary Vince Cable — have both accepted that the government might have focused more on higher taxation and less on cuts to public spending. But both also insisted the U.K had ultimately been correct to prioritize putting its public finances on a sounder footing.
It was February 2018 before Britain finally achieved Osborne’s goal of eliminating the deficit on its day-to-day budget.
Austerity was coming to an end, at last. But Osborne had already left the Treasury, 18 months earlier — swept away along with Cameron in the wake of a seismic national uprising.
***
David Cameron had won the 2015 election outright, despite — or perhaps because of — the stringent spending cuts his coalition government had overseen, more of which had been pledged in his 2015 manifesto. Also promised, of course, was a public vote on Britain’s EU membership.
The reasons for the leave vote that followed were many and complex — but few doubt that years of underinvestment in poorer parts of the U.K. were among them.
Regardless, the 2016 EU referendum triggered a period of political acrimony and turbulence not seen in Westminster for generations. With no pre-agreed model of what Brexit should actually entail, the U.K.’s future relationship with the EU became the subject of heated and protracted debate. After years of wrangling, Britain finally left the bloc at the end of January 2020, severing ties in a more profound way than many had envisaged.
While the twin crises of COVID and Ukraine have muddled the picture, most economists agree Brexit has already had a significant impact on the U.K. economy. The size of Britain’s trade flows relative to GDP has fallen further than other G7 countries, business investment growth trails the likes of Japan, South Korea and Italy, and the OBR has stuck by its March 2020 prediction that Brexit would reduce productivity and U.K. GDP by 4 percent.
Perhaps more significantly, Brexit has ushered in a period of political instability. As prime ministers come and go (the U.K. is now on its fifth since 2016), economic programs get neglected, or overturned. Overseas investors look on with trepidation.
“The evidence that the referendum outcome, and the kind of uncertainty and change in policy that it created, have led to low investment and low growth in the U.K. is fairly compelling,” said professor Stephen Millard, deputy director at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
Beyond the instability, the broader impact of the vote to leave remains contentious.
Portes argued — as many Remain supporters also do — that much harm was done by the decision to leave the EU’s single market. “It’s the facts, not the uncertainty that in my view is responsible for most of the damage,” he said.
Brexit supporters dismiss such claims.
“It’s difficult statistically to find much significant effect of Brexit on anything,” said professor Patrick Minford, founder member of Economists for Brexit. “There’s so much else going on, so much volatility.”
Minford, an economist favored by ex-PM Truss, acknowledged that “Brexit is disruptive in the short run, so it’s perfectly possible that you would get some short-run disruption.” But he added: “It was a long-term policy decision.”
Where next?
Plenty of economists can rattle off possible solutions, although actually delivering them has thus far evaded Britain’s political class. “It’s increasing investment, having more of a focus on the long-term, it’s having economic strategies that you set out and actually commit to over time,” says the IFS’ Xu. “As far as possible, it’s creating more certainty over economic policy.”
But in seeking to bring stability after the brief but chaotic Truss era, new U.K. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has signaled a fresh period of austerity is on the way to plug the latest hole in the nation’s finances. Leveling Up Secretary Michael Gove told Times Radio that while, ideally, you wouldn’t want to reduce long-term capital investments, he was sure some spending on big projects “will be cut.”
This could be bad news for many of the U.K.’s long-awaited infrastructure schemes such as the HS2 high-speed rail line, which has been in the works for almost 15 years and already faces a familiar mix of local resistance, vested interests, and a sclerotic planning system.
“We have a real problem in the sense that the only way to really durably raise productivity growth for this country is for investments to pick up,” said Springford, from the Centre for European Reform. “And the headwinds to that are quite significant.”
For dock workers at Liverpool’s Peel Port, the prospect of a fresh round of austerity amid a cost-of-living crisis is too much to bear. “Workers all over this country need to stand up for themselves and join a union,” insisted Delij.
For him, it’s all about priorities — and the arguments still echo back to the great crash of 15 years ago. “They bailed the bankers out in 2007,” he said, “and can’t bail hungry people out now.”
The U.S. central bank has raised the benchmark short-term borrowing rate a total of six times this year, including 75 basis point increases in June, July and September, in an effort to cool down inflation, which is still near 40-year highs and causing most consumers to feel increasingly cash strapped. A basis point is equal to 0.01 of a percentage point.
A policy statement after the announcement noted that the Fed is considering the “cumulative” impact of its hikes so far when determining future rate increases. Economists are hoping this signals plans to “step-down” the pace of increases going forward, which could mean a half point hike at the December meeting and then a few smaller raises in 2023. Still, stocks tumbled after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said there were more rate hikes ahead.
“Americans are under greater financial strain, there’s no question,” said Chester Spatt, professor of finance at Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business and former chief economist of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The federal funds rate, which is set by the central bank, is the interest rate at which banks borrow and lend to one another overnight. Although that’s not the rate consumers pay, the Fed’s moves still affect the borrowing and saving rates they see every day.
By raising rates, the Fed makes it costlier to take out a loan, causing people to borrow and spend less, effectively pumping the brakes on the economy and slowing down the pace of price increases.
“Unfortunately, the economy will slow much faster than inflation, so we’ll feel the pain well before we see any gain,” said Greg McBride, Bankrate.com’s chief financial analyst.
Already, “mortgage rates have rocketed to 16-year highs, home equity lines of credit are the highest in 14 years, and car loan rates are at 11-year highs,” he said.
• Mortgage rates are already higher. Even though 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed and tied to Treasury yields and the economy, anyone shopping for a home has lost considerable purchasing power, in part because of inflation and the Fed’s policy moves.
Along with the central bank’s vow to stay tough on inflation, the average interest rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 7%, up from below 4% back in March.
On a $300,000 loan, a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage at December’s rate of 3.11% would have meant a monthly payment of about $1,283. Today’s rate of 7.08% brings the monthly payment to $2,012. That’s an extra $729 a month or $8,748 more a year, and $262,440 more over the lifetime of the loan, according to LendingTree.
The increase in mortgage rates since the start of 2022 has the same impact on affordability as a 35% increase in home prices, according to McBride’s analysis. “If you had been approved for a $300,000 mortgage in the beginning of the year, that’s the equivalent of less than $200,000 today.”
For home buyers, “adjustable-rate mortgages may continue to be more popular among consumers seeking lower monthly payments in the short term,” said Michele Raneri, vice president of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. “And consumers looking to tap into available home equity may continue to look towards HELOCs,” she added, rather than refinancing.
Yet adjustable-rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit are pegged to the prime rate, so those will also increase. Most ARMs adjust once a year, but a HELOC adjusts right away. Already, the average rate for a HELOC is up to 7.3% from 4.24% earlier in the year.
• Credit card rates are rising. Since most credit cards have a variable rate, there’s a direct connection to the Fed’s benchmark. As the federal funds rate rises, the prime rate does as well, and your credit card rate follows suit within one or two billing cycles.
That means anyone who carries a balance on their credit card will soon have to shell out even more just to cover the interest charges. “This latest interest rate hike will most acutely impact those consumers who do not pay off their credit card balances in full through higher minimum monthly payments,” Raneri said.
Because of this rate hike, consumers with credit card debt will spend an additional $5.1 billion on interest, according to an analysis by WalletHub. Factoring in the rate hikes from March, May, June, July, September and November, credit card users will wind up paying around $25.6 billion more in 2022 than they would have otherwise, WalletHub found.
Already credit card rates are near 19%, up from 16.34% in March. “That’s the highest since the Fed began tracking in 1994 and is more than a full percentage point higher than the previous record set back in 2019,” according to Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree. And rates are only going to continue to rise, he said. “We’ve still got a ways to go before those rates hit their peak.”
The best thing you can do now is pay down high-cost debt — “0% balance transfer credit cards are still widely available, especially for those with good credit, and can help you avoid accruing interest on the transferred balance for up to 21 months,” Schulz said.
“That can be an absolute godsend for folks struggling with card debt,” he added.
Otherwise, consolidate and pay off high-interest credit cards with a lower-interest home equity loan or personal loan, Schulz advised.
• Auto loans are more expensive. Even though auto loans are fixed, payments are getting bigger because the price for all cars is rising along with the interest rates on new loans, so if you are planning to buy a car, you’ll pay more in the months ahead.
The average interest rate on a five-year new car loan is currently 5.63%, up from 3.86% at the beginning of the year and could surpass 6% with the central bank’s next moves, although consumers with higher credit scores may be able to secure better loan terms.
Paying an annual percentage rate of 6% instead of 5% would cost consumers $1,348 more in interest over the course of a $40,000, 72-month car loan, according to data from Edmunds.
Still, it’s not the interest rate but the sticker price of the vehicle that’s causing an affordability problem, McBride said. “Rising rates doesn’t help, certainly.”
• Student loans vary by type.Federal student loan rates are also fixed, so most borrowers won’t be affected immediately. But if you are about to borrow money for college, the interest rate on federal student loans taken out for the 2022-2023 academic year are up to 4.99%, from 3.73% last year and 2.75% in 2020-2021.
If you have a private loan, those loans may be fixed or have a variable rate tied to the Libor, prime or T-bill rates, which means that as the Fed raises rates, borrowers will likely pay more in interest, although how much more will vary by the benchmark.
Currently, average private student loan fixed rates can range from 3.22% to 14.96%, and from 2.52% to 12.99% for variable rates, according to Bankrate. As with auto loans, they vary widely based on your credit score.
• Only some savings account rates are higher. The silver lining is that the interest rates on savings accounts are finally higher after several consecutive rate hikes.
Thanks, in part, to lower overhead expenses, top-yielding online savings account rates are as high as 3.5%, according to Bankrate, much higher than the average rate from a traditional, brick-and-mortar bank.
“Savers are seeing the best yields since 2009 — if they’re willing to shop around,” McBride said. Still, because the inflation rate is now higher than all of these rates, any money in savings loses purchasing power over time.
Now is the time to boost that emergency savings, McBride advised. “Not only will you be rewarded with higher rates but also nothing helps you sleep better at night than knowing you have some money tucked away just in case.”
“More broadly, it makes sense to be more cautious,” Spatt added. “Recognize that employment is maybe less secure. It’s reasonable to expect we’ll see unemployment going up, but how much remains to be seen.”
Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, is expected to announce another 75 basis points hike.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
While the European Central Bank is largely expected to announce another rate hike Thursday, market players are seemingly more concentrated on two other policy tools as the region edges toward a recession.
The central bank has been contemplating inflation being at record highs but an economy that is slowing, with many economists predicting a recession before the end of the year. If the ECB takes a very aggressive stance in increasing rates to deal with inflation, there are risks that it tips the economy into further trouble.
Amid this context, the ECB is widely seen raising rates by 75 basis points later this week. This would be the second consecutive jumbo hike and the third increase this year.
“The ECB will likely raise its three policy rates by 75 basis points and suggest that it will go further at its next few policy meetings without providing a clear guidance on the size and number of steps to come,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, said in a note Tuesday.
Given the inflationary pressures — the September inflation rate came in at 10% — analysts are pricing in at least another 50 basis point hike in December. The bank’s main rate is currently at 0.75%.
“A growing consensus seems to be in favour of having the deposit rate at 2% by the end of the year, implying a 50 basis point hike in December, with a reassessment of the economic and inflation outlook in early 2023,” Frederik Ducrozet, head of macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management, said in a note Friday.
Rates aside, there are two questions on the minds of market players that need answering: When will the ECB start unwinding its balance sheet, in a process known as quantitative tightening, and what will happen to the lending conditions for banks in the near future. The ECB has undertaken years of quantitative easing, where it buys assets like government bonds to simulate demand, following the euro crisis of 2011 and the Covid-19 outbreak in 2020.
“When it comes to QT, boring is beautiful,” Ducrozet said, adding that he expects the process to start in the second quarter of 2023. QT is expected “to be predictable, gradual, and passive, starting with the end of reinvestments under the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) but not actively selling bonds any time soon,” he said.
Camille De Courcel, head of European rates strategy at BNP Paribas, said in a note Monday that the central bank might wait until the December meeting to provide details on QT but that it is likely to start reducing its balance sheet by about 28 billion euros on average per month when it does happen.
But perhaps the biggest uncertainty at this stage is whether lending conditions will change for European banks.
“We think Thursday [the ECB] will unveil a decision on the TLTRO, either its remuneration, or its cost. We think the new measure will only come into effect, in December,” De Courcel said.
The targeted longer-term refinancing operations, or TLTROs, is a tool that provides European banks with attractive borrowing conditions — hopefully giving these institutions more incentives to lend to the real economy.
Because the ECB has been increasing rates faster than the central bank initially expected, European lenders are benefiting from the attractive loan rates via TLTROs while also making more money from the higher interest rates.
“The optics are bad against the backdrop of a historical shock to households’ income, and political pressure cannot be ignored,” Ducrozet said.
The euro traded marginally higher against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday at $0.997. The weakness of the common currency has been a concern for the central bank though it repeatedly states that it does not target the exchange rate.
UBS on Tuesday reported a net income of $1.7 billion for the third quarter of this year, slightly above analyst expectations, with the Swiss bank citing a challenging environment.
Analysts had expected a net profit of $1.64 billion, according to Refinitiv data. UBS reported a net income of $2.3 billion a year ago.
The Swiss lender had missed expectations in the last quarterwhen it posted a net profit of $2.108 billion. The bank said at the time the second quarter had been “one of the most challenging periods for investors in the last 10 years” due to high inflation, the war in Ukraine and strict Covid-19 policies in Asia.
UBS said Tuesday these factors continued to be in investors’ minds in the third quarter.
“The macroeconomic and geopolitical environment has become increasingly complex. Clients remain concerned about persistently high inflation, elevated energy prices, the war in Ukraine and residual effects of the pandemic,” Ralph Hamers, CEO of UBS, said in a statement.
Other highlights for the quarter include:
Revenues hit $8.3 billion, down from $9.1 billion a year ago.
Operating expenses dropped to $5.9 billion, from $6.2 billion a year ago.
CET 1 capital ratio, a measure of bank solvency, reached 14.4% versus 14.9% a year ago.
Its investment banking division saw revenues down by 19% with the lower performance in equity derivatives, cash equities, and financing revenue being offset by revenues in foreign exchange. The Global Wealth Management division also reported lower revenues, down by 4% year-on-year.
However, Personal and Corporate Banking revenues rose over the same period on more beneficial rates from the Swiss National Bank.
The Office for National Statistics announced inflation figures Wednesday as the U.K. undergoes a historic cost-of-living crisis and political turmoil.
Westend61 / Getty Images
LONDON — The consumer price index rose 10.1% in September, according to estimates published Wednesday by the Office for National Statistics, just exceeding a consensus forecast among economists polled by Reuters.
Increasing food, transport and energy prices were the biggest contributing factors to inflation, the ONS said. Food was up 14.6% year-on-year, transport was up 10.9% compared to last year, while the price of furniture and household goods rose 10.8%.
Sterling fell against the dollar following the news, trading at $1.1289, down from $1.1330.
Britain’s Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said in a statement that “help for the most vulnerable” will be a priority as the U.K. weathers high inflation rates, along with “delivering wider economic stability and driving long-term growth that will help everyone.”
September’s inflation rate highlights the severity of the U.K.’s inflation crisis, and comes as the country weathers a period of economic volatility.
People in the U.K. are feeling “pessimistic” about the price of groceries, with 84% saying they spent the same or more on groceries in the last three months, according to McKinsey & Company.
“The level of inflation is already driving consumers to think differently about Christmas with 58% planning to cut back on Christmas spending and 8% not planning to do any shopping at all,” Samantha Phillips, a partner at McKinsey, said in a research note.
The forecast from the ONS won’t prompt the Bank of England to reassess how it approaches interest rates, according to Marcus Brookes, chief investment officer at Quilter Investors.
“[The Bank of England] may be satisfied by the moves made in Westminster for now, but in the coming weeks, we will see what it really makes of the government’s fiscal policy as it makes its next move at its November Monetary Policy Committee meeting,” Brookes said.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon is reining in his ambition to make the 153-year-old investment bank a major player in U.S. consumer banking.
After product delays, executive turnover, branding confusion, regulatory missteps and deepening financial losses, Solomon on Tuesday said the firm was pivoting away from its previous strategy of building a full-scale digital bank.
Now, rather than “seeking to acquire customers on a mass scale” for the business, Goldman will instead focus on the Marcus customers it already has, while aiming to market fintech products through the bank’s workplace and wealth management channels, Solomon said.
The moment is a humbling one for Solomon, who seized on the possibilities within the nascent consumer business after becoming CEO four years ago.
Goldman started Marcus in 2016, named after one of the bank’s cofounders, to help it diversify revenue away from the bank’s core trading and advisory operations. Big retail banks including JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America enjoy higher valuations than Wall Street-centric Goldman.
Instead, after disclosing the strategic shift and his third corporate reorganization as CEO, Solomon was forced to admit missteps Tuesday during an hour-plus long conference call as analysts, one after another, peppered him with critical questions.
It began with Autonomous analyst Christian Bolu, who pointed out that other new entrants including fintech startup Chime and Block’s Cash App have broken through while Goldman hasn’t.
“One could argue that there’s been some execution challenges for Goldman in consumer; you’ve had multiple leadership changes,” Bolu stated. “Looking back over time, what lessons have you guys learned?”
Another analyst, Brennan Hawken of UBS, told Solomon he was confused about the pivot because of earlier promises related to coming products.
“To be honest, when I speak with a lot of investors on Goldman Sachs, very few are excited about the consumer business,” Hawken said. “So I wouldn’t necessarily say that a pulling back in the aspirations would necessarily be negative, I just want to try and understand strategically what the new direction is.”
After Wells Fargo‘s Mike Mayo asked whether the consumer business was making money and how it stacked up against management expectations, Solomon conceded that the unit “doesn’t make money at the moment.” That is despite saying in 2020 that it would reach breakeven by 2022.
Even one of the bank’s successes — winning the Apple Card account in 2019— has proven less profitable than Goldman executives expected.
Apple customers didn’t carry the level of balances the bank had modeled for, meaning that it made less revenue on the partnership than they had targeted, Solomon told Morgan Stanley analyst Betsy Graseck. The two sides renegotiated the business arrangement recently to make it more equitable and extended it through the end of the decade, according to the CEO.
With his stock under pressure and the money-losing consumer operations increasingly being blamed, internally and externally, for its drag on operations, Solomon appeared to have little choice than to change course.
Selling services to wealth management customers lowers customer acquisition costs, Solomon noted. In that way, Goldman is mirroring the broader shift in fintech, which occurred earlier this year amid plunging valuations, as growth-at-any cost changed to an emphasis on profitability.
Despite the turbulence, Goldman’s adventure in consumer banking has managed to collect $110 billion in deposits, extend $19 billion in loans and find more than 15 million customers.
“There’s no question that the aspirations probably got, and were communicated in a way, that were broader than where we’re now choosing to go,” Solomon told analysts. “We are making it clear that we’re pulling back on some of that now.”